Report on main directions of research towards better assessment of competitiveness. By Maria Bas, Philippe Martin and Thierry Mayer Work Package 5 / Deliverable 5.3 Sciences Po was the partner responsible for the preparation of this report. 20February 2014 1 Mapcompete is a project designed to provide an assessment of data opportunities and requirements for the comparative analysis of competitiveness in European countries The project leader is László Halpern for the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. The leaders of the six teams are: Carlo Altomonte, Bocconi University, for Bruegel; Giorgio Barba Navaretti, University of Milan, for Ld’A; GáborBékés for CERSHAS; KatjaNeugebauer, for IAW; Lionel Fontagné, PSE, University of Paris I, for PSE; Philippe Martin, for Science Po. Delphine Michel, Bruegel, is the project manager. Mapcompete Supporting Institutions: National Bank of Belgium, Banque de France, Banco de España, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bancad’Italia, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). LEGAL NOTICE: The searching leading to this report has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant number 320197. The views expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. 2 Executive summary Non price competitiveness is an important issue for European firms given that they produce in a high wage environment. However, non price competitiveness is difficult to measure, more anyway than price or cost competitiveness. This is true at the firm or at a more aggregate such as sector or country level. Whereas price competitiveness implies low prices, non price competitiveness implies higher demand for a given price. This can come from higher quality, differentiation, better design, brand image, associated services…This report proposes to use a quality measure which has the advantage of being simple and intuitive. Itmeasures the characteristics of the goods that increase its demand for a given price or similarly that explain why consumers do not decrease their demand even when they have to pay a higher price. This quality measure is based on trade data and can be applied to different sectors and different countries of the EU across time. Our indicator of quality competitiveness seems to be a good proxy of product quality since it is positively correlated with the level of economic development, human capital, physical capital and innovation intensity. Our preliminary results on quality changes across European countries suggest for example that the competitiveness gains of Germany during the 2000-2009 period are, at least in the high-technology (machinery and electronics) sectors we analyze, very much linked to improvement in the quality of goods produced. 3 1. Introduction This report, which is the third deliverables of WP51, aims to shed light on the main directions of research towards better assessment of competitiveness. This report proposes a new measure of quality adjusted prices based on the recent literature that has been reviewed in the WP D.5.2. It also describes the future research agenda highlighting the main questions on quality adjusted competitiveness in terms of policy implications that are still open. Different measures of competitiveness at the micro and macro level have been developed in the literature. Two different groups of competitiveness indicators have been emphasized. The first one measures price / cost competitiveness: the lower the unit cost of production the higher the efficiency and the more competitive the country/industry/firm. Within this framework lower marginal costs imply lower final goods prices and higher revenues. The second group of competitiveness indicators focused on non-price competitiveness. These measures of competitiveness are related to innovation (R&D investments, product and process innovation measures), the skilled-intensity, capital intensity and product quality. Note that in the first group of indicators of price/cost competitiveness the lower the prices the higher the efficiency gains, while the second group of indicators might imply that high prices are associated with higher competitiveness since prices are correlated with product quality. Having a precise measure of quality competitiveness is important for several reasons as emphasized by the European Competitiveness Report 2013. First, European firms 1 It corresponds to the deliverable D.5.3. The others deliverables are D5.1, which is a “Theoretical and policy aspects of competitiveness at different aggregation levels” which will be delivered by PSE and D.5.2 which is a report on “Indicators of quality adjusted price competitiveness.” carried out by Sciences Po. 4 have a comparative advantage to produce more sophisticated products since they are specialized in high-quality segments. This report shows that by EU manufacturing industries were able to keep their competitive position in 2009 relative to 1995 thanks to quality upgrading by increasing the complexity of their products. Second, quality competitiveness is also an important factor driving economic growth in the long run as compare to price competitiveness. Third, enhancing non-price competitiveness is also required for EU firms to be able to compete with firms from emerging countries mainly the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that have gradually increased their presence not only in low-technology but also in high-technology-intensive segments in the recent years (European Competitiveness Report 2010 and 2013). Even though the European Commission recognizes the importance of quality as a key competitiveness factor for European firms it also acknowledges that it is difficult to measure due to the difficulty of observing the product quality and the lack of information on the share of value added produced domestically. In this report we propose a quality measure which has the advantage of being simple and intuitive. It is intuitive and directly related to the views of the European Commission on quality that defines it in the following manner "Upgrading the products may also make customers willing to pay a premium for them if the products are perceived to be of high enough quality" (European Competitiveness Report 2013). Our quality measure is exactly based on this view as it measures the characteristics of the goods that increase its demand for a given price or similarly that explain why consumers do not decrease their demand even when they have to pay a higher price. This quality measure is based on trade data and can be applied to different sectors and different countries of the EU across time. Our indicator of quality competitiveness seems to be a good proxy of product quality since it is positively 5 correlated with the level of economic development, human capital, physical capital and innovation intensity. Our preliminary results on quality changes across European countries suggest for example that the competitiveness gains of Germany during the 2000-2009 period are, at least in the high-technology (machinery and electronics) sectors we analyze, very much linked to improvement in the quality of goods produced. Several empirical works in international trade studying the determinants of product quality across products and countries rely on unit values to capture differences in quality at the product level. This literature argues that prices (unit values) can be used as a proxy of product quality since higher prices act as a signal for higher product quality in imperfect market conditions following the idea of Akerlof's (1970) market for lemons. On the supply side, export prices are correlated with exporters' income per capita and relative physical and human capital endowments (Schott, 2004). Cross-country comparisons reveal that capital and skill abundant countries export goods at higher unit values. Countries that increase their skill and capital deepening over time experienced greater growth of unit values. Hummels and Klenow (2005) rely on the quantity exported and proxies for the number of varieties to explain that differences in quality are necessary to describe the observed differences in unit values. On the demand side, Hallak (2006) combines unit values at the product-country of origin level with information on countries income per capita. He also interprets the results in terms of product-quality: richer countries import relatively more from countries producing high-quality goods. Other works relying on cross-country and product international trade data that use unit values to measure quality are Schott (2008), Fontagne et al (2008) and Berthou 6 and Emlinger (2010) among others. They construct a relative price that compares for each market, the unit value of each individual trade flow to the average trade price of Recent firm level analyses also focus on prices (unit values) to capture differences across firms-products in terms of quality. They find that exporting firms charge higher prices in more distant markets and to high-income countries (Bastos and Silva 2010, Gorg, Halpern and Murakovy 2010, Manova and Zhang, 2012; Martin, 2012). Bigger, more productive and skilled intensive firms charge higher prices and pay higher input prices (Harrigan, Ma and Shlychkov, 2012, Kugler and Verhoogen, 2012, Hallak and Sivadasan 2013). Firms exporting to high-income countries buy more expensive inputs (Bastos, Silva and Verhoogen, 2013). However, prices are imperfect measures of product quality. Variations in prices across markets may indeed reflect differences on market structure or supply shocks. Changes in unit values across firms-products might be associated to variations in markups (pricing-to-market) or marginal costs rather than quality. In this work, we use an alternative methodology to estimate quality of exported goods at the productcountry of origin level. We rely on the methodology developed by Khandelwal, Schott and Wei (2013). They estimate quality and quality-adjusted prices at the firm-productcountry of destination relying on a demand function estimation and firm level data from the textile sector in China. They show that assuming a CES utility function where product quality acts as a demand shifter, the quality of each product can be estimated using information on quantities, unit values and the elasticity of substitution across products. We adapt this methodology to estimate the quality at the product level by country of origin of exports using detailed data of bilateral trade flows at the hs6 product level 7 for the period 2000-2009 from BACI-COMTRADE. This dataset allows us to estimate a measure of quality for different countries at the product level and to predict a ranking of product-quality across countries by sector. We focus on a group of selected industries (textile, chemical, machinery and electronics) to provide a comparison of product quality across countries of origin of exports and over time. In a second step, we focus on European countries within the euro zone in the period 2000-2009 that have the same currency. We re-estimate the quality indicators for the subsample of intra-Euro zone trade flows to eliminate nominal exchange rate movements that generate large relative cost shocks. Other alternative empirical methodologies disentangle price and quality using trade values and quantities to obtain a quality-adjusted measure of unit values. Quality differentiation across products is associated to product characteristics that are valued by consumers. Hallak and Schott (2011) develop a methodology that decomposes countries observed export prices into quality and quality-adjusted components using information of their trade balances from the demand side. For constant observed export prices, they infer that countries with trade surpluses produce high-quality products relative to countries with trade deficits. Khandelwal (2010) proposes a measure of quality that accounts for both product prices and market shares. He uses unit value and quantity information for imports of the US to infer quality from the estimation of a nested logit demand system. This method requires instrumental variables to identify the parameters. Khandelwal (2010) relies on variety-specific unit transportation cost, country level exchange rates and the interaction of distance to the US with oil prices to instrument prices. This methodology provides quality estimates at the product level in which imported products with higher market shares are assigned higher quality after controlling for price differences and country size. 8 The next section of this work describes the empirical methodology. The third section presents the dataset used in the empirical analysis. The fourth section describes the correlation of the quality indicators and other performance measures. The fifth section presents the results. The final section concludes. 2. Methodology We have adapted the methodology developed by Khandelwal, Schott and Wei (2013) to estimate quality at the product and country of origin of exports level using bilateral trade data. This quality measure is simple and intuitive: it measures the characteristics of the goods that increase its demand for a given price. Our quality estimate is consistent with a demand function that depends negatively on prices with a constant elasticity of substitution and positively on the quality of the product. Hence, product quality is interpreted as a demand shifter and does not depend on price elasticity. The quality for each hs6 product, country of origin and destination of exports can be estimated using information on quantities and unit values. We estimate quality as a demand shifter that corresponds to the residual of an OLS estimation of the following regression: xkint+σpkint= βPopit+λDin+ αknt+εkint(1) 9 wherexkintand pkintdenote the natural logs of the quantity and price (unit value) of product k exported by country i to destination n in year t. The product-destination country-time fixed effect αkntcontrols for differences across products and also for differences in price index and income at destination. We modify the methodology of Khandelwal, Schott and Wei (2013) to take into account the observable bilateral determinants of trade flows across countries. We include a set of dyadic terms that determine bilateral trade flows as distance, common language, common border (contiguity) and colonial links (Din). We also include in the estimation of equation (1) origin country's population as a proxy for unobserved varieties within a product as suggested by Khandelwal (2010). This variable allows us to control for the fact that larger countries export more products independently of their quality. We also used as an alternative measure of unobserved varieties the number of establishments within each 2 digit Isic industry in the origin country from UNIDO dataset. This latter variable has the advantage of being a more precise proxy for the amount of varieties produced by a country but the disadvantage of being available for the period for a restricted group of countriesindustries. The estimated logarithm of quality, qkint, depends on the residual εkintand the elasticity of substitution σ between products: qkint=εkint/(σ-1) 10 Conditional on price, a variety with a higher quantity (demand) is assigned higher quality. In this framework, quality is any unobserved product characteristic that increases demand other than price so it acts as a demand shifter. Identification of equation (1) is based on variation across exporting countries in export quantities for countries selling the same product in the same destination market and year. Estimation of equation (1) requires an assumption on the elasticity of substitution across products. We rely on the elasticity of substitution for the US at the 5 digit SITC rev3 from Broda and Weinstein (2006). Box 1 – Methodology to estimate quality adjusted competitiveness measures at the product level Alternative methodologies have been developed aiming at disentangling price from quality indicators. The idea behind these methodologies is very simple and intuitive: a higher quality is measured as all characteristics of a good that increase demand for a given price. The indicator of quality adjusted price competitiveness derived from this methodology is closely related to the views of the European Commission on quality that defines it in the following manner "Upgrading the products may also make customers willing to pay a premium for them if the products are perceived to be of high enough quality" (European Competitiveness Report 2013). 11 3. Data The main dataset used in this report relies on BACI dataset from CEPII. The original data are provided by the United Nations Statistical Division (COMTRADE database). This dataset provides bilateral values and quantities of exports at the HS 6-digit product level, for more than 200 countries. We rely on the period 2000-2009 for which information on prices and quantities are more exhaustive. Our analysis focuses on the 50 exporters and importers countries with highest trade flows. The list of countries used in the full sample is available in Table 1 (Appendix). Information on bilateral determinants of international trade comes from the GeoDist, the CEPII distance dataset.The CEPII distance dataset contains dyadic variables that determine trade costs. It includes variables valid for pairs of countries like distance, common language, colonial links and common border (contiguity). We use these variables in the estimation of equation (1) to take into account the observable bilateral determinants of trade flows between pair of countries. Two alternative control variables for the number of unobserved varieties in the country of origin are used in the estimation. The first one is the total population by exporting country. This variable comes from the Penn World tables as well as capital per worker at the country level that it is used to measure our quality adjusted competitiveness measure. The second proxy that we use is the number of establishments within each 2 digit Isic industry in the origin country from UNIDO dataset. We rely on concordance tables from WITS dataset (World Bank) between the 2 digit ISIC rev3 classification and the HS6 product level classification. These 12 concordance tables are available at the following web site: http://wits.worldbank.org/wits/productconcordance.html. This latter variable is only available for a restricted sample of countries for all industries during the period 2000-2009. Finally, we use the elasticity of substitution across products for the US at the 5 digit SITC rev3 estimated by Broda and Weinstein (2006). We rely on concordance tables from WITS dataset (World Bank) between the 5 digit SITC rev3 classification and the HS6 product level classification. These concordance tables are available at the following web site: http://wits.worldbank.org We use alternative measures of innovation at the country level to test the correlation of our quality estimates with innovation. These measures come from OECD. The main indicators of innovation that we use are R&D over GDP, Government Government-financed R&D over GDP, private sector financed R&D over GDP, the number of patents and the number of researchers at the country level. The measure of human capital endowment is the percentage of the population aged over 25 with at least secondary education in 1999 drawn from Barro and Lee (2001). Box 2 – Data requirements to compute the quality indicator at the product level While it is very difficult to have access to this information for domestic production, most of the studies rely on trade flows data that provide information on values and quantities at the product level for exports and imports. 13 The data requirements to apply this methodology at the product level are: 1) Bilateral trade flows data at the HS6 product level comes from BACI dataset (CEPII) build on data provided by the United Nations Statistical Division (COMTRADE database).For more information see http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/bddmodele/presentation.asp?id=1 2)Bilateral determinants of international tradearepairs of countries like distance, common language, colonial links and common borderfrom the GeoDist, the CEPII distance dataset. For detailed information on GeoDist dataset see: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/bddmodele/presentation.asp?id=6 3)The elasticity of substitution across products for the US at the 5 digit SITC rev3 comes from the estimations by Broda and Weinstein (2006). For detailed information on these elasticities at different levels see: http://www.columbia.edu/~dew35/TradeElasticities/TradeElasticities.html 4. Aggregate quality indicator and country performance This section presents evidence that shows that our quality indicators are good proxy of quality measures. As highlighted by the European Competitiveness Report 2010 and 2013, quality competitiveness reflects the ability of firms to produce complex and more differentiated products. The production of high-quality products 14 requires Research and Development (R&D) investments, human and physical capital. The degree of product sophistication and quality should be related with the degree of economic development, skilled, capital and innovation intensity of the country. We look at the correlation of our quality indicator at the country of origin level and GDP per capita, human capital, capital intensity, two indicator of innovation intensity (R&D over GDP and the number of patents), high-technology exports, market shares and export unit values. GDP per capita and high-technology exports come from the World Bank. The log of capital stock per worker is taken from the Penn World Tables and the measure of human capital endowment is the percentage of the population aged over 25 with at least secondary education in 1999 drawn from Barro and Lee (2001). The innovation indicators are from OECD. We aggregate the quality indicators at the country level taking the median of the quality estimates across all products for each country of origin and year. All variables are expressed in logarithm. Figure 1 presents the correlation between the quality measures by country and GDP per capita in the year 2000. As can be seen there is a positive correlation between the level of economic development of a country and the quality of their products. High-income countries export high-quality goods. This evidence is in line with previous findings in the literature (Schott, 2004). Figure 2shows that our quality estimate is positive correlated with export prices (unit values). Countries exporting high-priced goods tend to export also high-quality products. This evidence confirms previous results in the literature. 15 Figure 1: Correlation between the quality indicator and GDP per capita in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 2: Correlation between the quality indicator and unit values in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 16 4.1. Aggregate quality indicator and factor endowments In order to produce high quality goods firms rely on specific inputs such as skilled labor and capital investments as emphasized by Verhooghen (2008). Hence, we expect that our quality measure to be correlated with those inputs. We look at the relationship between our quality indicator measure and the level of human capital endowments and capital stock in figures 3 and 4. These figures indicate that countries with larger endowments of human and physical capital produce high-quality products. More skilled and capital intensive countries have the human resources and technology required to produce products with a higher level of quality. This evidence confirms the findings of Schott, 2004. Figure 3: Correlation between the quality indicator and Human Capital in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 17 Figure 4: Correlation between the quality indicator and Capital intensity in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 4.2. Aggregate quality indicator and innovation patterns Producing high-quality products requires also technological investments on product innovation. We explore in this section the relationship between our quality measure and several indicators of innovation activity at the country level. We use as a proxy of innovation R&D over GDP, Government Government-financed R&D over GDP, private sector financed R&D over GDP, the number of patents and the number of researchers at the country level. These measures of innovation come from the OECD. Figures 5 to 7 show a positive correlation between R&D investments as a percentage of GDP (total, private and public sector) and the product quality estimate indicating that countries that countries that are more intensive in innovation activities produce goods with a higher quality. 18 Figure 5: Correlation between the quality indicator and R&D intensity in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 6: Correlation between the quality indicator and private sector financed R&D as percentage of GDP in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 19 Figure 7: Correlation between the quality indicator and Government-financed R&D as percentage of GDP in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Next we explore the relationship between our quality indicator and the total number of patents and researchers by country. As can be seen in figures 8 and 9, countries that have greater amount of patents and researchers produce goods with a highquality content. Finally, we also look at the relationship between our quality indicator and a measure of the technological content of exports from the World Bank. As can be noticed in Figure 10 countries that produce and export high quality goods also export high-technology products. 20 Figure 8: Correlation between the quality indicator and patents in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 9: Correlation between the quality indicator and the number of researchers in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 21 Figure 10: Correlation between the quality indicator and High-technology exports in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Box 3 – Main results As highlighted by the European Competitiveness Report 2010 and 2013, quality competitiveness reflects the ability of firms to produce complex and more differentiated products. We have shown that our indicators of quality products are positively correlated with economic development and innovation performance required to produce those high-quality goods. The average quality indicators at the country level are positively correlated with: - Economic development measured by GDP per capita; - Unit values measured by average prices (value over quantity); - Human and physical capital. 22 -Innovation patterns measured by total, industry-financed and government financed Research and Development (R&D) investments over GDP, number of patents and researchers. - High-technology exports 4.3. Quality indicators and market shares Our measure captures all the attributes of a product that increase its demand for a given price. Conditional on prices, products with larger market shares have a greater quality. First we show that at the aggregate level our quality indicator is positively correlated with market shares in 2000 (Figure 11). Figure 11: Correlation between the quality indicator and export market shares in 2000 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 23 In the same line, countries that upgrade the quality of their products during the period should have experienced a greater increased in their market shares. We explore this relationship relying on the quality estimates for the euro-zone countries at the 2-digit industry level. Export market shares in this case are calculated for each industry as the ratio of exports of country over the world exports of that industry. Figure 12 shows how the percentage change in product quality relates to the percentage change in market shares between 2000 and 2009. This evidence indicates that European countries that have improved their product quality between 2000 and 2009 were able to gain export market shares. Figure 12: Correlation between the percentage change in the quality indicator and in export market shares (2000-2009) for euro-zone countries at the industry Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 24 5. Ranking of quality indicators for selected industries Estimation of equation (1) allows us to have a measure of quality at the hs6 product level, country of origin of exports, destination and year. This indicator of quality competitiveness is in line with the views of the European Commission that highlights in the European Competitiveness Report 2010 and 2013 that EU firms are able to increase their market shares through product differentiation and quality upgrading in the recent years. These reports also emphasized that product quality is related to consumers’ willingness to pay a premium for those products that have attributes that they considered of a higher quality. Our indicator of quality captures exactly this point raised by the European Commission since it measures any unobserved product characteristic different from the price that increases demand for that product. In that sense, quality is any unobserved attribute of the product that acts as a demand shifter conditional on prices. This indicator of quality is computed using the residual of that estimation and the elasticity of substitution among varieties as shown in equation (2). In order to have a comparable measure of quality, we aggregate the quality estimates at the exporting country and 2-digit industry level across hs6 products and destination countries. For each 2-digit industry, exporting country and year, we take the median value of the quality indicator across all destination countries and hs6 products within the 2-digit manufacturing industries. Next we rank the aggregate quality indicator in levels by year and 2-digit industry across all exporting countries. We exclude the outlier values of unit values and quality estimates (values higher than the 99th percentile and lower than the 1st percentile of the distribution of these variables). 25 Figures 13 to 16show the results of this ranking of quality indicators for the top 10 origin countries (among the 50 countries) within the 2-digit industry for four selected industries and for the initial year, 2000, and the last year, 2009. This quality estimates are computed from estimation of equation (1) relying on the full sample of 50 countries and using population in the origin of export country as a proxy of country size and unobserved number of varieties. The four selected industries are textile, chemical, machinery and electronics industry. As can be seen, for the textile industry (figure 13) among the ten exporting countries with highest quality we found in 2000 the following countries in the order of the ranking from the top 1 to the top 10: Italy, Japan, France, UK, US, Germany, Korea, Taiwan and Spain. Comparing this ranking of quality in the textile sector with the ranking for 2009 reveals that Germany and Switzerland have increased their quality. Germany passed from the top 6th country in 2000 to the 2th highest quality exporting country in the textile sector with an increase of 40 percent in their quality between 2000 and 2009 for a given price. Switzerland was in the 10th position in 2000 and appears in the 4th position in 2009. Other countries have maintained the same level of quality among both years like Italy, Japan and France. Looking at the Chemical sector ranking of quality reveals a similar pattern in quality between 2000 and 2009 (figure 14). The countries that increased the most their quality of chemical products are Switzerland and Germany. Switzerland jumps from the 8th position in 2000 to the 4th position in 2009 with an increase in their quality of 37 percent. For a given price, Germany increased its quality of chemical products of 40 percent between 2000 and 2009. 26 Figure 13: Ranking of quality indicators in the textile sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 14: Ranking of quality indicators in the chemical sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 27 Figure 15: Ranking of quality indicators in the machinery sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 16: Ranking of quality indicators in the electronics sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 28 Figures (15) and (16) present the ranking of quality across exporting countries for the machinery and the electronics sectors. In both sectors, Germany is the country that has experienced the highest quality upgrading between 2000 and 2009. For a constant price, Germany has increased the quality of the machinery goods of almost 50 percent and it has triplicated the quality of the electronic products between 2000 and 2009. As a robustness tests, we present in the Appendix similar figures (21 to 24) for the ranking of quality for these four industries based on the measures of quality from estimation of equation (1) using as a proxy of unobserved varieties in the exporting country the number of establishments by 2-digit industry from UNIDO dataset. As previously highlighted this is a reduced sample since the number of establishments is only available for a restricted sample of countries for all industries during the period 2000-2009. This reduced sample corresponds to 43% of observations in the full sample. Box 4 – Industry level results 1) Textile industry: Germany passed from the top 6th country in 2000 to the 2th highest quality exporting country in the textile sector with an increase of 40 percent in their quality between 2000 and 2009 for a given price. Switzerland was in the 10th position in 2000 and appears in the 4th position in 2009. Other countries have maintained the same level of quality among both years like Italy, Japan and France. 2) Machinery and electronics industries: The competitiveness gains of Germany during the 2000-2009 period are, at least in the high-technology sectors, very much linked to improvement in the quality of goods produced. 29 3) Chemical industries: The countries that increased the most their quality of chemical products are Switzerland and Germany. Switzerland jumps from the 8th position in 2000 to the 4th position in 2009 with an increase in their quality of 37 percent. For a given price, Germany increased its quality of chemical products of 40 percent between 2000 and 2009. 5.1. Ranking of quality indicators for intra-Eurozone trade In this section we restrict the analysis the European Union countries within the euro zone in the period 2000-2009 that have the same currency. This enables to eliminate nominal exchange rate movements that generate large relative cost shocks. We re-estimate equation (1) for the restricted sample of intra-euro zone trade flows and so we re-calculate the quality indicator for those countries. Figures 17 to 20 show the results of this ranking of quality indicators for the top 10 European countries for 2000 and 2009 for the four selected industries. As can be seen, differences in quality are lower since we are comparing a similar group of countries. When equation (1) is estimated within trade flows for intra-euro zone countries, the identification of the quality indicator is based on variation across similar EU exporting countries in export quantities for countries selling the same product in the same destination market and year. In the textile sector, Italy is still the leader in product quality for the year 2000 but it passes to the 2nd rank in 2009 due to the increase in the quality of Portugal. In the chemical sector, Ireland is the leader in 2000 but it passes second in 2009 after Belgium that was ranking number four in 2000. The outstanding result is that Germany is the country with the highest quality in the high-technology sectors, 30 machinery and electronics, in both years. Moreover, Germany is the country with the highest quality upgrading in the electronics industry between 2000 and 2009, confirming the previous results. Figure 17: Ranking of quality indicators in the textile sector 2000-2009 Eurozone Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 31 Figure 18: Ranking of quality indicators in the chemical sector 2000-2009 Eurozone Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 19: Ranking of quality indicators in the machinery sector 2000-2009 Eurozone Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 32 Figure 20: Ranking of quality indicators in the electronics 2000-2009 Eurozone Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figures in the Appendix (25 to 28) show the ranking of quality for the intra-euro zone countries for these four industries based on the measures of quality from the reduced sample using the number of establishments to control for the unobserved varieties in the exporting country. 33 6. Research agenda There are still several questions for which there are partial answers or they are still open concerning the policy implications for firm non-price competitiveness. In this section, we review and discuss four key questions that could be incorporated the future research agenda on the determinants of firms quality adjusted price competitiveness. 1) Does quality upgrading insulate firms from cost competitiveness shocks? Do firms react differently to macro shocks depending on their quality? This first group of questions is still open and future research is required. One recent work that tries to answer these questions is the work of Chen and Juvenal (2013). They extend the analysis of Berman, Martin and Mayer (2012) and of Crozet, Head and Mayer (2012) to explore the relationship between real exchange rate pass-through and firms’ product quality. They rely on experts wine ratings as a measure of product quality. Their findings suggest that high-quality firms react to depreciation by raising more their markups and by increasing less their export volume. 2) How do management practices affect firm competitiveness? Another important question is if differences in management practices across firms can explain differences in their competitiveness. Bloom et al. (2013) investigate this question by relying on a management field experiment on large Indian textile firms. Their methodology provided free consulting on management practices to randomly chosen treatment plants and compared their performance to a set of control plants. Their findings suggest that those firms that have adopted these management practices raised productivity by 17% in the first year 34 through improved quality and efficiency and reduced inventory, and within three years led to the opening of more production plants. Bloom, Sadun and Van Reenen (1012) have collected data on management practices on over 8,000 firms in 20 countries in the Americas, Europe and Asia. They have shown that management practices account for up to half of the TFP gap between the US and other countries. Concerning the macroeconomic policies that shape the relationship between management practices and firm performance they find that the lower trade barriers and weaker labor regulation the higher the correlation between firms’ managerial practices and their size (and growth). 3) Which are the public policies that improve firm non-price competitiveness? There are several study cases that have highlighted the role of different public policies on enhancing firm competitiveness. A first set of works focuses on the impact of trade liberalization on firm performance. Two main channels through which trade reform affects firm competitiveness have been highlighted. The first one is related to reductions on tariff affecting final consumption goods that increases foreign competition creating incentives for firms to upgrade their quality, innovate, adopt new technologies and improve their productivity in order to compete with foreign goods (Amiti and Khandelwal, 2013, Fernandes and Paunov, 2011, Amiti and Konings, 2007, among others). The second channel is related to the access to high quality/more efficient inputs from abroad allows firms to upgrade the quality of their final products (Goldberg et al, 2012, Amiti and Konings, 2007, Bas and Strauss-Kahn, 2013). A second set of works focuses on industrial policies affecting firm competitiveness. Micro-level empirical studies investigate the effects of industrial policy through clusters on firm-level performance (Criscuolo et al. 2012, Martin et al. 2011a and b, 2013 and see Nathan and Overman, 2013, for a complete survey). These studies find mixed results. The main econometric issue that these studies face is to find a rigorous identification 35 strategy that allows a micro-econometric evaluation of the causal effects of industrial policy on firm competitiveness. 4) If a policy objective is to increase aggregate exports, should public policy target small or big firms? This is question that raises the public debate and has important policy implications. From the industrial cluster analysis we have learned that small firms are more responsive to cluster and R&D policies but most of the microlevel empirical trade studies highlight that at the aggregate level small firms do not account for much of the aggregate export patterns (See Mayer and Ottaviano, 2007, for European firms and Bernard, Redding and Jensen, 2007, for the US). Box 5 – Future research agenda There are still other questions for which there are partial answers or they are still open. 1) Do different countries and sectors in Europe react differently to macroeconomic shocks like exchange rate shocks? 2) What is the scope for internal competitiveness adjustment among the euro zone countries? 3) Do public policies targeting improvements of firm competitiveness affect differently firms depending on their characteristics? The answer of these questions requires on measures of quality beyond unit values and prices. Direct measures of quality derived from consumers’ behavior and tastes for specific products could help to shed light on the determinants of firms’ quality upgrading and the policy implications that are at play. 36 7. Conclusions In this work we have constructed a new set of measures of product quality at the micro level for several countries. We have adapted the methodology developed by Khandelwal, Schott and Wei (2013) to estimate product quality for exporting countries at the HS6 product level using bilateral flow data on quantities and values. The quality indicators are then estimated as a residual from a demand function estimation using information on quantities, unit values and the elasticity of substitution across products. Our quality indicators are positively correlated with origin country GDP per capita, human capital, capital intensity and patenting indicating that they are a good proxy of product quality. More developed countries with high income export high-quality products. In order to compare the product quality across origin exporting countries, we aggregate the quality indicators at the 2-digit industry level by country of origin of exports. Next, we compute a ranking across countries for a selected set of industries (textile, chemical, machinery and electronics) on the quality of their products for the period 2000-2009. 37 7. Appendix 38 7.1. Ranking of quality indicator by industry. Reduced sample Figure 21: Ranking of quality indicators in the textile sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. Figure 22: Ranking of quality indicators in the chemical sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 39 Figure 23:Ranking of quality indicators in the machinery sector 2000-2009 Note: authors calculations based on BACI dataset. 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