Chapter 14 The Money Supply Process Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Players in the Money Supply Process • Central bank (Federal Reserve System) • Banks (depository institutions; financial intermediaries) • Depositors (individuals and institutions) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-2 Fed’s Balance Sheet Federal Reserve System Assets Liabilities Government securities Currency in circulation Discount loans Reserves • Monetary Liabilities – Currency in circulation: in the hands of the public – Reserves: bank deposits at the Fed and vault cash • Assets – Government securities: holdings by the Fed that affect money supply and earn interest – Discount loans: provide reserves to banks and earn the discount rate Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-3 Monetary Base High-powered money MB = C + R C = currency in circulation R = total reserves in the banking system Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-4 Open Market Purchase from a Bank Banking System Assets Liabilities Securities -$100 Reserves +$100 Federal Reserve System Assets Securities Liabilities +$100 Reserves +$100 • Net result is that reserves have increased by $100 • No change in currency • Monetary base has risen by $100 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-5 Open Market Purchase from Nonbank Public I Banking System Assets Reserves Federal Reserve System Liabilities +$100 Checkable deposits +$100 Assets Securities Liabilities +$100 Reserves +$100 • Person selling bonds to the Fed deposits the Fed’s check in the bank • Identical result as the purchase from a bank Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-6 Open Market Purchase from Nonbank Public II Nonbank Public Assets Liabilities Securities -$100 Currency +$100 Federal Reserve System Assets Securities Liabilities +$100 Currency in circulation +$100 • The person selling the bonds cashes the Fed’s check • Reserves are unchanged • Currency in circulation increases by the amount of the open market purchase • Monetary base increases by the amount of the open market purchase Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-7 Open Market Purchase: Summary • The effect of an open market purchase on reserves depends on whether the seller of the bonds keeps the proceeds from the sale in currency or in deposits • The effect of an open market purchase on the monetary base always increases the monetary base by the amount of the purchase Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-8 Open Market Sale Nonbank Public Assets Liabilities Securities +$100 Currency -$100 Federal Reserve System Assets Securities Liabilities -$100 Currency in circulation -$100 • Reduces the monetary base by the amount of the sale • Reserves remain unchanged • The effect of open market operations on the monetary base is much more certain than the effect on reserves Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-9 Shifts from Deposits into Currency Nonbank Public Assets Banking System Liabilities Checkable deposits -$100 Currency +$100 Assets Reserves Federal Reserve System Assets Liabilities Currency in circulation +$100 Reserves -$100 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Liabilities -$100 Checkable deposits -$100 Net effect on monetary liabilities is zero Reserves are changed by random fluctuations Monetary base is a more stable variable 14-10 Making a Discount Loan to a Bank Banking System Assets Reserves Federal Reserve System Liabilities +$100 Discount loans +$100 (borrowing from Fed) Assets Discount loan Liabilities +$100 Reserves +$100 (borrowing from Fed) • Monetary liabilities of the Fed have increased by $100 • Monetary base also increases by this amount Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-11 Paying Off a Discount Loan from the Fed Banking System Assets Reserves Federal Reserve System Liabilities -$100 Discount loans -$100 (borrowing from Fed) Assets Discount loans Liabilities -$100 Reserves -$100 (borrowing from Fed) • Net effect on monetary base is a reduction • Monetary base changes one-for-one with a change in the borrowings from the Federal Reserve System Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-12 Other Factors Affecting the Monetary Base • Float • Treasury deposits at the Federal Reserve • Interventions in the foreign exchange market Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-13 Fed’s Ability to Control the Monetary Base • Open market operations are controlled by the Fed • The Fed cannot determine the amount of borrowing by banks from the Fed • Split the monetary base into two components MBn= MB - BR • The money supply is positively related to both the non-borrowed monetary base MBn and to the level of borrowed reserves, BR, from the Fed Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-14 Deposit Creation: Single Bank First National Bank Assets First National Bank Liabilities Assets Liabilities Securities -$100 Securities -$100 Checkable deposits Reserves +$100 Reserves +$100 Loans +$100 First National Bank Assets Liabilities Securities -$100 Loans +$100 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. +$100 Excess reserves increase Bank loans out the excess reserves Creates a checking account Borrower makes purchases The money supply has increased 14-15 Deposit Creation: The Banking System Bank A Assets Reserves Bank A Liabilities +$100 Checkable deposits Assets +$100 Reserves Loans Reserves +$100 Bank B Liabilities +$90 Checkable deposits Assets +$90 Reserves Loans Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. +$10 Checkable deposits +$90 Bank B Assets Liabilities Liabilities +$9 Checkable deposits +$90 +$81 14-16 Table 1 Creation of Deposits (assuming 10% reserve requirement and a $100 increase in reserves) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-17 The Formula for Multiple Deposit Creation Assuming banks do not hold excess reserves Required Reserves (RR) = Total Reserves (R) RR = Required Reserve Ratio (r ) times the total amount of checkable deposits (D) Substituting r × D=R Dividing both sides by r 1 D= × R r Taking the change in both sides yields 1 ∆D = × ∆R r Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-18 Critique of the Simple Model • Holding cash stops the process – Currency has no multiple deposit expansion • Banks may not use all of their excess reserves to buy securities or make loans. • Depositors’ decisions (how much currency to hold) and bank’s decisions (amount of excess reserves to hold) also cause the money supply to change. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-19 Factors that Determine the Money Supply • Changes in the nonborrowed monetary base MBn – The money supply is positively related to the non-borrowed monetary base MBn • Changes in borrowed reserves from the Fed – The money supply is positively related to the level of borrowed reserves, BR, from the Fed Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-20 Factors that Determine the Money Supply • Changes in the required reserves ratio – The money supply is negatively related to the required reserve ratio. • Changes in currency holdings – The money supply is negatively related to currency holdings. • Changes in excess reserves – The money supply is negatively related to the amount of excess reserves. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-21 Summary Table 1 Money Supply Response Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-22 The Money Multiplier • Define money as currency plus checkable deposits: M1 • Link the money supply (M) to the monetary base (MB) and let m be the money multiplier M= m × MB Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-23 Deriving the Money Multiplier I Assume that the desired holdings of currency C and excess reserves ER grow proportionally with checkable deposits D. Then, c = {C/D} = currency ratio e = {ER/D} = excess reserves ratio Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-24 Deriving the Money Multiplier II The total amount of reserves (R) equals the sum of required reserves (RR) and excess reserves (ER). R = RR + ER The total amount of required reserves equals the required reserve ratio times the amount of checkable deposits RR = r * D Subsituting for RR in the first equation R = (r * D) + ER The Fed sets r to less than 1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-25 Deriving the Money Multiplier III • The monetary base MB equals currency (C) plus reserves (R): MB = C + R = C + (r x D) + ER • Equation reveals the amount of the monetary base needed to support the existing amounts of checkable deposits, currency and excess reserves. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-26 Deriving the Money Multiplier IV c = {C / D} ⇒ C = c × D and e = {ER / D} ⇒ ER = e × D Substituting in the previous equation MB = (r × D) + (e × D) + (c × D) = (r + e + c) × D Divide both sides by the term in parentheses 1 × MB D= r +e+c M = D + C and C = c × D M = D + (c × D) = (1+ c) × D Substituting again 1+ c M= × MB r +e+c The money multiplier is then 1+ c m= r +e+c Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-27 Intuition Behind the Money Multiplier r = required reserve ratio = 0.10 C = currency in circulation = $400B D = checkable deposits = $800B ER = excess reserves = $0.8B M = money supply (M1) = C + D = $1,200B $400B = 0.5 $800B $0.8B = 0.001 e= $800B 1.5 1+ 0.5 = = 2.5 m= 0.1+ 0.001+ 0.5 0.601 This is less than the simple deposit multiplier Although there is multiple expansion of deposits, there is no such expansion for currency c= Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-28 Application: The Great Depression Bank Panics, 1930 - 1933. • Bank failures (and no deposit insurance) determined: – Increase in deposit outflows and holding of currency (depositors) – An increase in the amount of excess reserves (banks) • For a relatively constant MB, the money supply decreased due to the fall of the money multiplier. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-29 FIGURE 1 Deposits of Failed Commercial Banks, 1929–1933 Source: Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 309. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-30 FIGURE 2 Excess Reserves Ratio and Currency Ratio, 1929–1933 Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin; Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867– 1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 333. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-31 FIGURE 3 M1 and the Monetary Base, 1929–1933 Source: Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), p. 333. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 14-32
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