A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy PowerPoint Slides prepared by: Andreea CHIRITESCU Eastern Illinois University © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 1 Market for Loanable Funds • In an open economy – S = I + NCO – Saving = Domestic investment + Net capital outflow • Supply of loanable funds – From national saving (S) • Demand for loanable funds – From domestic investment (I) – And net capital outflow (NCO) © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 2 Market for Loanable Funds • When NCO > 0 – Net outflow of capital – Net purchase of capital overseas • Adds to the demand for domestically generated loanable funds • When NCO < 0 – Net inflow of capital – Capital resources coming from abroad • Reduce the demand for domestically generated loanable funds © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 3 Market for Loanable Funds • Loanable funds - interpreted as – Domestically generated flow of resources available for capital accumulation • Purchase of a capital asset – Adds to the demand for loanable funds – Asset – located at home: I – Asset – located abroad: NCO © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 4 Market for Loanable Funds • Higher real interest rate – Encourages people to save • Increases quantity of loanable funds supplied – Discourages investment • Decreases quantity of loanable funds demanded © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 5 Market for Loanable Funds • Higher real interest rate – Discourages Americans from buying foreign assets • Reduces U.S. net capital outflow – Encourages foreigners to buy U.S. assets • Reduces U.S. net capital outflow © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 6 Market for Loanable Funds • Supply of loanable funds – Slopes upward • Demand of loanable funds – Slopes downward • At equilibrium interest rate – Amount that people want to save – Exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net capital outflow © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 7 Figure 1 The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Equilibrium real interest rate Equilibrium quantity Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Quantity of Loanable Funds The interest rate in an open economy, as in a closed economy, is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds. National saving is the source of the supply of loanable funds. Domestic investment and net capital outflow are the sources of the demand for loanable funds. At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the amount that people want to borrow for the purpose of buying domestic capital and foreign assets. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 8 Foreign-Currency Exchange • The market for foreign-currency exchange – Identity: NCO = NX – Net capital outflow = Net exports • If trade surplus, NX > 0 – Exports > Imports – Net sale of goods ad services abroad – Americans use the foreign currency to buy foreign assets • Capital is flowing abroad, NCO > 0 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 9 Foreign-Currency Exchange • If trade deficit, NX < 0 – Imports > Exports – Some of this spending - financed by selling American assets abroad • Foreign capital is flowing into U.S. • NCO < 0 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 10 Foreign-Currency Exchange • Supply of foreign-currency exchange – Net capital outflow • Quantity of dollars supplied to buy foreign assets – Supply curve – vertical • Quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow • Does not depend on the real exchange rate (by assumption) © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 11 Foreign-Currency Exchange • Demand for foreign-currency exchange – Net exports • Quantity of dollars demanded to buy U.S. net exports of goods and services – Demand curve - downward sloping – A higher real exchange rate • Makes U.S. goods more expensive • Reduces the quantity of dollars demanded to buy those goods © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 12 Foreign-Currency Exchange • Equilibrium real exchange rate – Demand for dollars • By foreigners • Arising from U.S. net exports of goods & services – Exactly balances supply of dollars • From Americans • Arising from U.S. net capital outflow © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 13 Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Real Exchange Rate Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow) Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars (for net exports) Equilibrium quantity Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency The real exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand for foreign-currency exchange. The supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency comes from net capital outflow. Because net capital outflow does not depend on the real exchange rate, the supply curve is vertical. The demand for dollars comes from net exports. Because a lower real exchange rate stimulates net exports (and thus increases the quantity of dollars demanded to pay for these net exports), the demand curve is downward sloping. At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the number of dollars people supply to buy foreign assets exactly balances the number of dollars people demand to buy net exports. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 14 Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Identities – Market for loanable funds: S = I + NCO – Market for foreign-currency exchange: NCO=NX • Net-capital-outflow curve – Link between • Market for loanable funds • Market for foreign-currency exchange © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 15 Exhibit 3 How Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Net capital outflow 0 Net capital outflow Net Capital Outflow is negative is positive Because a higher domestic real interest rate makes domestic assets more attractive, it reduces net capital outflow. Note the position of zero on the horizontal axis: Net capital outflow can be positive or negative. A negative value of net capital outflow means that the economy is experiencing a net inflow of capital. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 16 Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Market for loanable funds – Supply: national saving – Demand: domestic investment & net capital outflow – Equilibrium real interest rate, r • Net capital outflow – Slopes downward – Equilibrium interest rate, r © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 17 Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Market for foreign-currency exchange – Supply: net capital outflow – Demand: net exports – Equilibrium real exchange rate, E • Equilibrium real interest rate, r – Price of goods and services in the present • Relative to goods and services in the future © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 18 Equilibrium in the Open Economy • Equilibrium real exchange rate, E – Price of domestic goods and services • Relative to foreign goods and services • E and r - adjust simultaneously – To balance supply and demand • In both markets – Loanable funds – Foreign-currency exchange © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 19 Equilibrium in the Open Economy • E and r - adjust simultaneously – Determine • National saving • Domestic investment • Net capital outflow • Net exports © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 20 Figure 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Supply (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate r1 r1 Net capital outflow, NCO Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds In panel (a), the supply and demand for loanable funds determine the real interest rate. In panel (b), the interest rate determines net capital outflow, which provides the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange. In panel (c), the supply and demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange determine the real exchange rate. Net capital outflow Real Exchange Rate Supply E1 Demand Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 21 Government Budget Deficits • Government budget deficits – When government spending exceeds government revenue – Negative public saving – Reduces national saving – Reduces supply of loanable funds – Increase in interest rate – Reduces net capital outflow © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 22 Government Budget Deficits • Government budget deficits – Crowd-out domestic investment – Decrease in supply of foreign-currency exchange – Currency appreciates – Net exports fall – Push the trade balance toward deficit © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 23 Exhibit 5 The Effects of a Government Budget Deficit (b) Net Capital Outflow (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate r2 r1 2. . . . which increases the real interest rate . . . 1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds . . . S2 B S1 Real Interest Rate r2 A 3. . . . which in turn reduces net capital outflow. r1 Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds When the government runs a budget deficit, it reduces the supply of loanable funds from S1 to S2 in panel (a). The interest rate rises from r1 to r2 to balance the supply and demand for loanable funds. In panel (b), the higher interest rate reduces net capital outflow. Reduced net capital outflow, in turn, reduces the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange from S1 to S2 in panel (c). This fall in the supply of dollars causes the real exchange rate to appreciate from E1 to E2. The appreciation of the exchange rate pushes the trade balance toward deficit. NCO Real Exchange Rate E2 E1 5. . . . Which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. Net capital outflow S2 S1 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency . . . Demand Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 24 Trade Policy • Trade policy – Government policy – Directly influences the quantity of goods and services • That a country imports or exports – Tariff - tax on imports – Import quota - limit on quantity of imports – Voluntary export restrictions © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 25 Trade Policy • Macroeconomic impact of trade policy – Decrease imports – Increase in net exports – Increase in demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange – Real exchange rate appreciates • Discourage exports © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 26 Trade Policy • Macroeconomic impact of trade policy – No change in real interest rate – No change in net capital outflow – No change in net exports • Decrease in imports • Decrease in exports © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 27 Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota (b) Net Capital Outflow (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Supply Real Interest Rate r1 r1 Demand 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. NCO Quantity of Loanable Funds Net capital outflow Real Exchange When the U.S. government imposes a quota on the Rate 2. . . . And causes import of Japanese cars, nothing happens in the market Supply the real exchange for loanable funds in panel (a) or to net capital outflow rate to appreciate. in panel (b). The only effect is a rise in net exports E2 (exports minus imports) for any given real exchange E1 rate. As a result, the demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange rises, as shown by the D2 shift from D1 to D2 in panel (c). This increase in the 1. An import quota demand for dollars causes the value of the dollar to D1 increases the demand appreciate from E1 to E2. This appreciation of the dollar for dollars . . . tends to reduce net exports, offsetting the direct effect Quantity of Dollars of the import quota on the trade balance. (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 28 Trade Policy • Macroeconomic impact of trade policy – Trade policies do not affect the U.S. trade balance • NX = NCO = S – I – Trade policies affect specific • Firms • Industries • Countries © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 29 Political Instability &Capital Flight • Political instability – Leads to capital flight • Capital flight – Large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 30 Political Instability &Capital Flight • Mexico - capital flight affects both markets – 1994, political instability – Investors – capital flight • Sell Mexican assets • Buy U.S. assets, “safe haven” – Net-capital-outflow curve – increases • Supply of pesos in the market for foreign- currency exchange – increases – Demand curve in the market for loanable funds – increases © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 31 Political Instability &Capital Flight • Mexico - capital flight affects both markets – Interest rate in Mexico – increases • Reduce domestic investment • Slows capital accumulations • Slows economic growth – The peso depreciates • Exports – cheaper • Imports - more expensive • Trade balance moves toward surplus © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 32 Figure 7 The Effects of Capital Flight (a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico Real Real D2 Interest Interest Rate Rate Supply D1 r2 r2 1. An increase in net capital outflow . . . r1 r1 3. . . . Which increases the interest rate. (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow 2. . . . increases the demand for loanable funds . . . Quantity of Loanable Funds NCO1 NCO2 Net capital outflow If people decide that Mexico is a risky place to keep their Real Exchange 4. At the same savings, they will move their capital to safer havens such Rate S S 1 2 time, the increase as the U.S., resulting in an increase in Mexican net capital in net capital outflow. Consequently, the demand for loanable funds in outflow increases Mexico rises from D1 to D2, as shown in panel (a), and this drives up the Mexican real interest rate from r1 to r2. the supply of E1 Because net capital outflow is higher for any interest rate, pesos . . . E2 that curve also shifts to the right from NCO1 to NCO2 in panel (b). At the same time, in the market for foreign5. . . . which Demand currency exchange, the supply of pesos rises from S1 to S2, causes the peso as shown in panel (c). This increase in the supply of pesos to depreciate Quantity of Pesos causes the peso to depreciate from E1 to E2, so the peso (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange becomes less valuable compared to other currencies. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 33 Political Instability &Capital Flight • Mexico - capital flight affects both markets – U.S. market • Fall in U.S. net capital outflow • The dollar appreciates in value • U.S. interest rates fall • Relatively small impact on the U.S. economy – Because the economy of the United States is so large compared to that of Mexico © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 34 Capital flows from China • Nation that experiences capital flight – Outflow of capital – Its currency weaken in foreign exchange markets • Depreciation – Increases the nation’s net exports • Nation that experiences inflow of capital – Its currency strengthen • Appreciation – Pushes its trade balance toward deficit © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 35 Capital flows from China • A nation’s government – policy: – Encourages capital to flow to another country • By making foreign investments itself – Effect? • Nation encouraging capital outflows – Weaker currency – Trade surplus • For the recipient of capital flows – Stronger currency – Trade deficit © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 36 Capital flows from China • Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China – China – tried to depress its currency (renminbi) in foreign exchange markets • Promote its export industries • Accumulate foreign assets, $2.4 trillion, 2009 – Including U.S. government bonds • Chinese goods - less expensive • Contributes to the U.S. trade deficit • Hurts American producers who make products that compete with imports from China © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 37 Capital flows from China • Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China – U.S. government • Encouraged China to stop influencing the exchange value of its currency – American consumers of Chinese imports • Benefit from lower prices – Inflow of capital from China • Lowers U.S. interest rates • Increases investment in the U.S. economy © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 38 Capital flows from China • Chinese policy of investing in U.S. economy – Creates winners and losers among Americans – Net impact on U.S. economy - probably small • Motives behind the policy – China - wants to accumulate a reserve of foreign assets - national “rainy-day fund” – Misguided policy © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use. 39
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