Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Market Analysis for Commuter Ferry Service on
the Occoquan, Potomac, & Anacostia Rivers
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Prepared by:
October 16, 2012
In association with:
•Foursquare Integrated Transportation Planning
•Gallop Corporation
•WB&A Market Research
•CJI Research
•Shapiro Transportation Consulting
• HR&A Advisors
Today’s Meeting
 Introduce the Study
 Introduce the consulting team
 Project Outline
 What is happening in
other places
 We have some questions
for you
Project Team
NVRC
Peggy Tadej, Project
Manager
Commuter Ferry
Stakeholders Group
Tim Payne, Principal
Consulting Team Project Manager
Nelson\Nygaard
David Miller, Senior Planner
Deputy Project Manager
Foursquare ITP
Stakeholder
Communications
Presentations &
Quality Control
Tim Payne
Nelson\Nygaard
Tim Payne
Nelson\Nygaard
Lora Byala
Foursquare ITP
Lora Byala
Foursquare ITP
Karina Ricks
Nelson\Nygaard
Karina Ricks
Nelson\Nygaard
Research, Corridor
Evaluation Process,
Recommendations,
Report Writing
David Miller
Foursquare ITP
Stephanie Wright
Nelson\Nygaard
Andrew Zalewski
Foursquare ITP
Mike Eiseman
Nelson\Nygaard
Market
Research
Kevin Pullis
WB&A
Steven
Markenson
WB&A
Demand & Ridership
Modeling
Eric Ho,
PH.D, P.E.,
Gallop Corp.
Expert Advisors
Hugh Clark, Market Research
CJI Research
Phil Shapiro, Modeling
Shapiro Transportation Consulting
Eric Rothman,
Development Economics
HR&A Advisors
Project Process
1.
Kick-off meeting -- September 19, 2012
Stakeholder interviews –- September-October 2012
2. Criteria and methodology for terminal and corridor
selection -- October-December 2012
3. Market analysis to determine demand:
Modeling work -- December-January, 2013
Market research -- February-March, 2013
4. Preliminary service model -- April, 2013
5. Draft and Final Reports -- May-June, 2013
Presentations –- July–August, 2013
Outreach
 Purpose
– Project progress review by steering committee
– Gain stakeholder understanding, study support
– Understand needs of stakeholders’ different perspectives
 How
– Scheduled steering committee meetings
– Group interviews with objective discussion guide
– Share results with broad audience
Anticipated Meetings Of
Steering Committee
 September 19 – Kick-off
 Mid-November – Review Terminal/Corridor
Selection Criteria and List to be screened
 Mid-December – Review results of screening a
preliminary top five corridors for study
 Late February – Review results of modeling effort,
midpoint status report on market research
 Late April – Review market research and
preliminary service model results
 Late June – Final report presentation
Criteria and Methodology for
Terminal and Corridor Selection
Origin/Destination Potential
Identification
Terminal Sites
 Size of commute market – home
end
 Size of commute market – work
end
 Available landing sites
 Planned development around the
site
 Intermodal transfer available
Corridors
– Criteria development
 Trips between origin-destination
pairs
 Relative travel time
 Travel time reliability
Apply the criteria
RESULT: Screened and ranked list
of potential ferry origins and
destinations and corridors
Market Analysis
Top Five Corridors Evaluation
– Model development and deployment
– Market research development and deployment
Demand and Service Model Cycle
Basic
Service/Fare/Time
assumptions
Demand Model and
Survey results
Revise a key
factor(s)
Feasible Alternative
defined
Examine results
ridership/operating
cost/farebox
return/capital costs
NO
Values in expected
ranges for feasible
service?
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN
OTHER PLACES?
Puget Sound
 Multiple ferry operators, private and public
 Commuter ferries are all public and are a mix of
car/passenger and passenger only vessels.
 Terminals are a combination of simple to complex
 Daily ferry commuters on Puget Sound exceeds
20,000 per day.
San Francisco Bay
 Multiple operators – all passenger only
 Commuter ferries and tourism ferries, some dual
purpose.
 Integrated information system
 Variety of funding sources – most notable is
resurgence of ferries following closure of
earthquake damaged Bay Bridge and birth of
WETA.
Boston
 Combination of commuter and visitor type
services.
 Well established terminals on Boston Waterfront
 Service from Boston waterfront to Logan Airport
 Combination of public and privately funded
operations
 Some local townships to the north also operate
vessels to the Boston waterfront.
New York
 Combination of commuter, water taxi, and visitor type
services
 Most extensive network of privately operated ferries in the
US.
 Two major private operators, NY Waterways and Seastreak,
one major public operator Staten Island Ferry
 Terminals developed as public infrastructure
 Specialized bus transit systems to distribute passengers in
Manhattan
Your Turn to Talk
 Key transportation needs and challenges
 Interest in ferry service
 Land side access
 Factors that will attract ridership
 Concerns about ferry service
QUESTIONS?
Tim Payne
1402 Third Avenue
Suite 1200
Seattle, WA 98101
Office: (206) 357-7524
[email protected]
NELSON\NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES © 2011