NIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP
10 June, 2015
Press Release
GDP growth of 0.6 per cent in 3 months ending in May 2015
Embargoed until 15.00 hours on 10th June 2015
Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three
months ending in May after growth of 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in April
2015. These estimates are consistent with a rebound of economic growth in the second
quarter of this year. For the year as a whole, we forecast GDP growth of 2.5 per cent per
annum*. We continue to expect the MPC to start raising interest rates in the first quarter of
2016.
* NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 6th May 2015) projects GDP growth of 2.5
per cent per annum in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016 (see http://niesr.ac.uk/media for the
associated press release).
Technical notes: Our track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that our
projection for the most recent three-month period has a root mean squared error (RMSE)
of 0.227% point (for the full sample period 1999Q3-2014Q4) when compared to the first
estimate produced by the ONS. For the period 2008Q1 to 2014Q4 the RMSE is 0.309%
point. The impact of the adverse weather in 2010Q4 is a noticeable outlier. Excluding
2010Q4 from the analysis, the RMSE for the full sample period is 0.189% point, and for
2008Q1 to 2014Q4 the RMSE is 0.240% point. These comparisons can be made only for
complete calendar quarters. Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this.
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the
February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal:
Mitchell, J. Smith, R. J., Weale, M. R., Wright, S. and Salazar, E. L. (2005) ‘An
Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth’,
Economic Journal, No. 551, pp. F108-F129.
- Available from: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)14680297
A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data for the inter-war period was
published in the October 2012 volume of Explorations in Economic History:
Mitchell, J., Solomou, S. and Weale, M. (2012) ‘Monthly GDP estimates for interwar Britain’, Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 543-556.
- Available from: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/explorations-in-economichistory/
From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services
published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has
caused us some problems in estimating GDP. From our November 2006 press release we
have therefore reverted to using a model of private services output based on indicator
variables. This means that, while all our figures for calendar quarters are fully coherent
with ONS data, our estimates of monthly private service output are not. The series can be
thought of as indicating the underlying value of the ONS series.
1
NIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP
10 June, 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes for editors: For further information please contact the NIESR Press Office or
Brooke Hollingshead on 020 7654 1923/ [email protected]
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London, SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom
Switchboard Telephone Number: 020 7222 7665
Website: http://www.niesr.ac.uk
Contents of Press Release
Table 1, Page 3: Summary Table of Quarterly Growth Rates showing Monthly Data, 3
months ending in that month, and Quarterly Growth (% per quarter). All contain Figures
for Industry & GDP.
Table 2, Page 4: Output by Sector (Industry, Agriculture, Construction, Private Services,
Public Services, GDP(B) (calculated at prices excluding taxes and subsidies), GDP
Table 3, Page 5: Output in Quarter Ending in Month Shown by sector (as above)
Table 4, Page 6: Growth in Quarter Ending in Month Shown over Previous Quarter (% at
Annual Rate) by sector (as above)
More…
2
NIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP
10 June, 2015
Table 1: Summary Table of Quarterly Growth Rates
2011=100
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Monthly Data
Industry GDP
97.3
103.5
98.5
104.4
98.4
104.4
98.7
104.9
98.1
104.9
98.1
105.2
98.4
105.4
98.1
105.5
98.9
105.9
98.8
105.9
98.9
106.3
98.8
106.4
98.8
106.4
98.9
106.6
99.5
106.8
99.9
107.2
100.1
107.5
3 months ending in
month shown
Industry
GDP
97.4
103.4
97.8
103.9
98.1
104.1
98.5
104.6
98.4
104.7
98.3
105.0
98.2
105.2
98.2
105.4
98.5
105.6
98.6
105.8
98.9
106.0
98.9
106.2
98.8
106.4
98.8
106.5
99.1
106.6
99.4
106.9
99.8
107.1
Quarterly Growth %
per quarter
Industry
GDP
0.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.8%
0.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.8%
-0.3%
0.6%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.0%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
1.0%
0.6%
More…
3
NIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP
10 June, 2015
Table 2: Output by Sector (2011=100)
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Industry
97.3
98.5
98.4
98.7
98.1
98.1
98.4
98.1
98.9
98.8
98.9
98.8
98.8
98.9
99.5
99.9
100.1
Agriculture Construction
93.1
98.5
93.2
99.7
93.3
100.3
93.2
100.3
93.3
100.7
93.4
101.4
93.7
102.5
93.9
102.8
94.1
102.3
94.2
101.1
94.2
100.2
94.2
99.6
94.1
99.3
94.1
99.2
94.1
99.1
94.1
99.1
94.1
99.1
Private
Services
106.5
107.5
107.4
108.3
108.3
108.9
109.1
109.3
109.9
110.2
111.1
111.1
111.2
111.4
111.5
112.0
112.4
Public
Services
102.5
102.5
102.6
102.7
102.9
102.9
103.0
103.0
103.0
103.0
102.7
103.2
103.0
103.4
103.5
103.6
103.7
GDP(B)
103.5
104.3
104.2
104.7
104.7
105.0
105.3
105.4
105.8
105.8
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.4
106.6
107.0
107.2
GDP
103.5
104.4
104.4
104.9
104.9
105.2
105.4
105.5
105.9
105.9
106.3
106.4
106.4
106.6
106.8
107.2
107.5
More…
4
NIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP
10 June, 2015
Table 3: Output in Quarter Ending in Month Shown (2011=100)
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Industry Agriculture
97.4
92.9
97.8
93.1
98.1
93.2
98.5
93.2
98.4
93.2
98.3
93.3
98.2
93.5
98.2
93.7
98.5
93.9
98.6
94.1
98.9
94.2
98.9
94.2
98.8
94.2
98.8
94.1
99.1
94.1
99.4
94.1
99.8
94.1
Private
Construction Services
97.0
106.5
98.3
107.0
99.5
107.1
100.1
107.7
100.4
108.0
100.8
108.5
101.5
108.7
102.2
109.1
102.5
109.4
102.0
109.8
101.2
110.4
100.3
110.8
99.7
111.1
99.4
111.2
99.2
111.3
99.1
111.6
99.1
112.0
Public
Services
102.2
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.7
102.8
102.9
103.0
103.0
103.0
102.9
103.0
103.0
103.2
103.3
103.5
103.6
GDP(B)
103.3
103.8
104.0
104.4
104.5
104.8
105.0
105.2
105.5
105.7
105.9
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.6
106.9
More…
5
GDP
103.4
103.9
104.1
104.6
104.7
105.0
105.2
105.4
105.6
105.8
106.0
106.2
106.4
106.5
106.6
106.9
107.1
NIESR Monthly Estimates of GDP
10 June, 2015
Table 4: Growth in Quarter Ending in Month Shown over Previous Quarter (% at
Annual Rate)
Industry
Jan-14
0.0%
Feb-14
0.8%
Mar-14
2.2%
Apr-14
4.6%
May-14
2.3%
Jun-14
1.0%
Jul-14
-1.3%
Aug-14
-0.8%
Sep-14
0.7%
Oct-14
1.6%
Nov-14
2.7%
Dec-14
1.5%
Jan-15
0.9%
Feb-15
-0.1%
Mar-15
0.9%
Apr-15
2.5%
May-15
4.1%
Agriculture Construction
2.8%
5.1%
2.6%
11.2%
2.2%
15.4%
1.4%
13.5%
0.7%
8.9%
0.4%
5.3%
1.0%
5.7%
1.9%
7.2%
2.6%
6.9%
2.6%
2.1%
2.0%
-3.9%
1.3%
-8.3%
0.6%
-8.8%
0.0%
-7.0%
-0.4%
-4.3%
-0.5%
-2.4%
-0.3%
-1.2%
ENDS
6
Private
Services
4.0%
4.8%
4.0%
4.9%
4.0%
5.1%
3.7%
4.0%
3.5%
3.9%
4.9%
5.1%
5.0%
3.1%
2.0%
1.8%
2.8%
Public
Services
0.6%
1.0%
1.6%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.3%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.9%
1.4%
GDP(B)
2.1%
3.3%
3.5%
4.2%
3.0%
3.1%
2.2%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.3%
2.1%
1.3%
1.1%
1.6%
2.4%
GDP
2.1%
3.2%
3.5%
4.4%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
1.6%
1.5%
1.9%
2.6%