HORIZON 2030 Predicting The Demands Of Tomorrow Presentation summary Dr James Bellini KNOWLEDGEshare.com In association with Facts of the future By 2050 world food demand will rise by 70 per cent – but globally the average farm is smaller than one hectare Between now and 2030 there’ll be more scientific advances than in the whole of the 20th century Up to 2035 the global infrastructure spend will exceed $50 trillion To build a post-carbon world we need to replace each year the equivalent of a cubic mile of oil Page 2 KNOWLEDGEshare The Great Transition The coming years will see a fundamental shift in global economic realities from ‘old’ to ‘emerging’ regions – the biggest change since the First Industrial Revolution This shift will bring a worldwide urban explosion, a new two billion-plus middle class, a changing map of global trade, powerful new currencies and the biggest infrastructure boom in generations Page 3 KNOWLEDGEshare The Great Transition Coupled with connective technologies, this Great Transition will transform our world – how and where we live, work, invest, innovate, consume, travel, socialise... It will change the geography of global commerce... and have major impact on the world’s food/beverage sector Page 4 KNOWLEDGEshare Global Shift: BRICs And Beyond Britain took 150 years to double its GDP per head. China took 12.  25 per cent of world land area  40 per cent of world population  Combined GDP of $20 trillion Page 5 KNOWLEDGEshare E-World 2025: Future facts Annual e-world consumption reaches $30 trillion 60 % of a billion $20,000/year households will be in e-world That’s the biggest growth opportunity in the history of business Page 6 KNOWLEDGEshare Scenario 2030: The African Decade? TRADITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MODEL Transitions Stabilization Path 3 Path 2 Path 1 Acceleration Africa Regional Strategy Blueprint on Africa’s Future and World Bank Take-off Pre-development Page 7 “Africa could be on the brink of an economic take-off like China was 30 years ago” Time KNOWLEDGEshare Page 8 Japan 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 Portugal Germany France Belgium Italy Netherlands 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 Denmark Canada New zealand Austria 2 OECD 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 US Switzerland Poland Iceland Sweden Spain UK Ireland 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 Finland Norway Greece Mexico 4.5 4.1 Australia 4 Czeck Republic 5.0 4.9 4.7 South Korea Hungary 6 Slovakia 8 Luxembourg Turkey Turkey: Winning formula? AVERAGE ANNUAL GDP GROWTH 2011-2017 [OECD FORECAST] 6.7 1.4 1.2 0 KNOWLEDGEshare Europe In The 2020s SEVEN KEY INITIATIVES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Page 9 ‘Innovation union’ ‘Youth on the move’ Digital agenda Resource efficient Europe Industrial agenda for globalised world Agenda for skills and jobs European platform against poverty Europe 2020 Strategy KNOWLEDGEshare Poland: Europe’s rising star IMF proiections and Poland impress observers with their “ Turkey economic performance following a global financial 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% crisis that left regional peers damaged. Both rely on youthful populations, low debt levels and expanding middle classes to become the ‘New Tigers’ 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 MarketWatch 2012 2014 Poland GDP growth YoY % change Page 10 Developed economies GDP growth YoY % change ” 2016 KNOWLEDGEshare Future urban giants Mega-cities World’s largest 2015 30 cities in 2020 [by GDP (PPP)] Beijing Moscow Los San NewYork Angeles Chicago Atlanta Boston Francisco New York 4,000,000 12,000,000 Philadelphia 12,900,000 16,500,000 Los Angeles Washington DC 14,200,000 17,600,000 Dallas Houston Mexico City London Cairo 2,100,000 10,500,000 14,400,000 Miami 1950 Sao Paolo 2000 (estimate) 2015 (projection) Population growth, 1950-2000 >100 million 50-100 million 10-50 million <10 million 2,300,000 17,300,000 19,000,000 Sao Paolo Buenos Aires Buenos Aires 5,250,000 Istanbul 11,000,000 20,600,000 Delhi 1,700,000 Tokyo 11,700,000 6,200,000 Tianjin Seoul 400,000 19,400,000 27,700,000 10,000,000 Tokyo Beijing 28,700,000 19,000,000 Osaka Guangzhou Shanghai Shanghai Dhaka 1,100,000 Paris 3,500,000 Mexico City 17,600,000 19,000,000 Population growth of largest cities Karachi Shenzhen Mumbai Lagos Mumbai 1,000,000 12,000,000 24,400,000 2,800,000 16,900,000 27,400,000 Calcutta 4,300,000 Hong Kong 13,900,000 4,450,000 23,400,000 12,500,000 Singapore 17,300,000 Jakarta 2,800,000 9,500,000 21,200,000 12,200,000 13,900,000 Source: The National Geographic Society and United Nations Page 11 KNOWLEDGEshare Rise of ‘Hybrid’ manufacturing Creates global value chains Takes account of all variables in manufacturing process Production functions split between high-cost and low-cost economies Must understand contributions different managers/countries can make Success demands ‘open attitudes’ and ‘interest in learning from others’ Page 12 KNOWLEDGEshare Miniaturization and cost reduction Digital markets 1 Mainframe 4 Smart Between now and 2020 the volume of data things most companies manage will multiply thirty five-fold. 3 Mobiles/ smart cards “Soon cars will routinely have 200 million lines of 2 PCs code and 70 processors – that’s almost as much as the new Airbus 380” Forrester The era of Big Data has arrived, increasing the world's store of electronic information by about five trillion bits per second Time Page 13 KNOWLEDGEshare Digital behaviour: Key to the future To capitalise on the Big Data tools making their way into HR technology, you’ll need to start thinking much more strategically about your organization’s talent data “A retailer using big data to the full has the potential to increase its operating margin by more than 60 percent” McKinsey Global Institute “We develop visions from your data” Michael Feindt of Blue Yonder Page 14 KNOWLEDGEshare 2030: Big Picture challenges Address global shift SOLVE WATER SCARCITY Feed the billions Drive post-carbon agenda Create sustainable business Manage urban explosion Care for ageing citizens Page 15 Tackle jobs and talent crisis Build a smarter world KNOWLEDGEshare Thank you! 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