1. business and industrial

Yuri van Geest -­‐ Co-­‐Author Exponen/al Organiza/ons -­‐ Dutch Ambassador of SU -­‐ Managing Director of the Singularity University Summit Europe -­‐ Co-­‐Founder Quan/fied Self Europe -­‐ Co-­‐Founder Lean Startup Machine NL Exponential Technologies
Declining Costs Increasing Capabili/es “The average half life of a business competency has dropped from 30 years in 1984 to 5 years today.” “89% of the Fortune 500 companies from 1955 are not on the list today.” “The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has decreased from: 67 years (1920’s) to 15 years (today).” “In the next 10 years 40% of all S&P 500 companies will disappear from this list” Market Cap to a Billion
Why are there ExOs? Linear vs. Exponential
Reason 1
While the informa/on-­‐based world is now moving exponen0ally, our organiza/onal structures are s/ll very linear (especially larger and older ones) Reason 2
We’ve learned how to scale technology (mainly cloud compu/ng since 2006) Now it’s /me to scale the organiza0on (strategy, structure, processes, culture, KPIs, people & systems) Reason 3
Our organiza/onal structures have evolved mainly to manage scarcity of people, money and assets / resources. The concept of ownership works well for scarcity Accessing or sharing works be;er in an abundant, informa0on-­‐based world. What are ExOs? Definition
An Exponen/al Organiza/on (ExO) is one whose impact (or output) is dispropor/onally large — at least 10x larger — compared to its peers because of the use of new organiza/onal techniques that leverage exponen/al technologies. F'#9%8(<#**++*(%
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•! social, mobile & online for
front-end functions
•! nanotech, robotics, 3D
printing, sensors, AI
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•! crowdsourcing (leveraging the
crowd), DIY*, P2P**, crowd
companies, AI, Nanofactories
Attributes
Attributes
I-­‐D-­‐E-­‐A-­‐S Promote Non-­‐Poli/cal, More Human Organiza/ons How to create ExOs? Strategy for Startups
1. Select an MTP 2. Join or create relevant MTP Communi0es 3. Compose a Team 4. Breakthrough Idea 5. Build a Business Model Canvas 6. Find a Business Model 7. Build the MVP 8. Validate Marke0ng & Sales 9. Implement SCALE & IDEAS 10. Establish the Culture 11. Ask Key Ques0ons periodically 12. Build and maintain a PlaSorm Selecting an MTP
TED: “Ideas worth spreading.” Google: “Organize the world’s informa:on. Quirky: “Make inven:on accessible.” Key Ques0on: What is the biggest problem I’d like to see solved? Team with Complementary Skills
Visionary / Dreamer UX Design Discovery • 
• 
• 
• 
• 
associa/ng ques/oning observing networking experimen/ng Developer / Engineer + Finance / Business Delivery • 
• 
• 
• 
• 
analyzing planning detail-­‐oriented implemen/ng execu/ng Building a Platform
1. Gather data through sensors, people and datasets 2. Organize data (ETL: extract, transform & load) 3. Apply machine learning & deep learning algorithms 4. Expose data via an open plaoorm (open APIs) Strategies for Corporates
Examples of ExOs Best ExOs
Best ExOs
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Xiaomi - Chinese smartphone company, focusing on performance, quality and
customer experience. Has a flat organization consisting of 5.000 employees
and leverages a Community of 100 million fans for product ideation & iteration.
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Takeaways
Rent, don’t own assets, people & resources Marginal cost of supply is dropping exponen0ally for the first /me ever (besides marginal costs of demand) >>> double viral loops or network effects Impact of ExOs ExO performance improvement
ExO Market Cap improvement
!
Haier$
Valve$
Google$
Airbnb$
Uber$
Age$
(years)$
30!
18!
17!
7!
6!
Github$
6!
Waze$
6!
$25!million!
Quirky$
Xiaomi$
Snapchat$
5!
4!
3!
$50!million!
$1!billion!
0!
!
2011$
valuation$
$19!billion!
$1.5!billion!
$150!billion!
$2!billion!
$2!billion!
$500!million!
(est.)!
Current$
valuation$
$60!billion!
$4.5!billion!
$400!billion!
$20!billion!
$41.2!billion!
$7!billion!
$1!billion!(in!
2013)!
$2!billion!
$46!billion!
$19!billion!
Increase$
3x!
3x!
2.5x!
10x!
20.5x!
14x!
50x!
40x!
46x!
19,000x!+!
Future Outlook Future Organizations
• 
• 
• 
• 
Leverage Blockchain Distributed Autonomous Organiza/ons (DAOs/DACs) Algorithmic Corpora/ons RoboCorps Final Takeaway
You will experience many failures and hit a lot of walls, but in the end it’s worth it if you’re passionate enough and want to achieve a 10x improvement. “Exponen/al Organiza/ons is the most pivotal book in its class.” -­‐ John Hagel “Exponen/al Organiza/ons should be required reading for anyone interested in the ways exponen/al technologies are reinven/ng best prac/ces in business.” -­‐ Ray Kurzweil “The most transforma/onal business book I’ve ever read” -­‐ Ken Losch “Exponen/al Organiza/ons is a must read business book this fall” – Om Malik In 2015: Transla/ons in 12 languages "
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