WestAsiaMonitorVolumeI,IssueVIII–April2015 CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS Israel Swerves Right Israel Swerves Right Pinak R. Chakravarty, ORF Pinak R. Chakravarty Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu created history, defying pre-poll predictions, by leading his right-wing Likud Party to victory in the recently concluded national elections in Israel. The stunning result gave Netanyahu’s Likud party 30 seats in the 120 seat Israeli Parliament, the Knesset. Netanyahu will have to cobble together a coalition, if he hopes to become Prime Minister of Israel for a record fourth time and equal the record of Israel’s first Prime Minister David Ben Gurion. The Yemen Crisis and Collective Arab Security Kanchi Gupta, ORF Iraq on the Edge: PM al-Abadi and the war against the Islamic State Sikandar Azam, ORF REGIONAL OPINION Yemeni crisis: Iran’s exit is the only solution Editorial, al-Watan The main challenge to the Likud was mounted by the centre-left Zionist Union Party led by Isaac Herzog, which came in second with 24 seats. The Zionist Union is a mutation of Israel’s Labour Party, which led the country for three decades after its founding in 1948. It has not been able to win elections since 1999 when its leader Ehud Barak, a former Army Chief, became the first Israeli prime minister to offer the Palestinians an independent state, albeit with some conditions, on most of the occupied territories. Barak failed in this effort and a violent Palestinian uprising, the Intifada, ensued, sending the Labour Party into political wilderness. Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen Abdulrahman al-Rashed, Asharq al-Awsat COMMENTARIES The great game folio: Pakistan in Yemen C Raja Mohan, ORF, New Delhi As U.S. and Iran Seek Nuclear Deal, Saudi Arabia Makes Its Own Moves David D. Kirkpatrick, The New York Times STATEMENTS Joint Statement during the State Visit of the Emir of the State of Qatar to India, March 25-26, 2015 The Party did not recover from this failure and has been rudderless since then. The third was the Joint Arab Coalition, an electoral alliance MEDIA WATCH BIBLIOGRAPHY Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 1 of four Arab majority parties which clocked up 14 seats. Netanyahu the majority he needs to form the next government. Yesh Atid, the party led by former Finance Minister Yair Lapid, came in fourth with 11 seats and Kulanu, a right-wing party led by a former Likud party member, Moshe Kahlon, came fifth with 10 seats. A number of small right-wing parties won seats below 10. Among them are the Jewish Home Party with 8 seats, the religious party Shaas, United Torah Party, both took 7 seats, the Ultra Nationalist Yisrael Beitenu got 6 seats and the left-wing Meretz Party got 4 seats. Netanyahu’s re-election and his alliance with the ultra-nationalist parties will ensure that prospects for peace and a permanent settlement with the Palestinians, is unlikely to be reached during his tenure. Israel has, so far got a breather in the region with most Arab countries grappling with jihadi extremism, state failure and the Islamic State (IS). In this scenario, the Palestinian issue has receded somewhat and no longer gets the highest priority among Arab states. This is in spite of Netanyahu’s policy on creating new settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and transplanting Jewish population in such settlements, pushing up this population to over 600,000, including those living in East Jerusalem, annexed by Israel. Israeli elections are conducted on the basis of a list system which is similar to proportional representation. A party prepares a list of candidates and gets seats on the basis of the percentage of votes polled. Candidates on the list of a party are elected Members of the Knesset, beginning from number one on the list till the number which corresponds to the number of seats won. The proportional representation system has been held responsible for the repeated fractured mandates in Israeli elections. President Reuven Rivlin has formally asked Netanyahu to form Israel’s 34th government. There is a 28 day time frame set by Israel’s laws and Netanyahu has till April 22 to form the government. Thereafter, the President can sanction another 14 days if Netanyahu asks for them, though the President has the right to refuse, which is an unlikely possibility, given the looming threat of political instability. During this period there will be intense horse trading, with various allies demanding portfolios of their choice. Netanyahu’s task is unenviable given the fractious and ideological divided relations even among the allied parties. While Israeli President Reuvan Rivlin has called for a government of national unity, this is an unlikely prospect. Netanyahu can garner 57 seats among the right-wing and religious parties that are allied to Likud. To put together a majority, he will have to woo Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon who broke away from Likud two years ago over differences with Netanyahu. Ideologically, Kulanu has displayed centrist tendencies and has hobnobbed with the centre-left and moderate Zionist Union party. Kulanu is the swing factor and holds the balance of power between the two traditional Right and Left wing blocs in Israel’s politics. It is expected that Kulanu may gravitate towards the Likud and give Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Playing the senior statesman, President Rivlin said the next government and the Knesset will have to take on the crucial tasks of healing relations with the United States, returning stability to the political system, and mending rifts inside Israeli society. “We have endured a difficult election period,” Rivlin said. “From Page 2 visceral partisan affair in American political history. Adding insult to injury, Netanyahu also proclaimed during his election campaign that there will be no Palestinian State while he was in power. His electoral victory has made many believe that his tactics of scaring Israeli voters and opposing the USA-led Iran nuclear deal have worked in favour, in so far as the Israeli electoral verdict is concerned. every direction, things were said that ought not to have been said in a Jewish and democratic state. Fanning the flames serves no one. The fire does not only heat, it threatens to engulf in flames. Today is the time to begin to heal these wounds.” Clearly, the President was rapping Netanyahu on his knuckles for the visceral electoral campaign that he and his party conducted, the likes of which Israel had not seen before. In post elections remarks, Netanyahu has spoken about seeking peace with the Palestinians and promised to put election rhetoric behind. He emphasized good relations with the USA but also asserted that he would work to prevent a bad nuclear deal with Iran. On the economic front, Netanyahu promised a budget that will lower prices and put controls on monopolies that are undermining competition. The Obama administration was left with little choice but to retaliate in various ways, both subtle and direct. The White House has cast serious doubts on the trustworthiness of Israel as an ally and put limits on intelligence sharing with Israel on the Iran nuclear negotiations. It has also leaked stories of Israeli snooping on US delegation at the nuclear talks. The White House Chief of Staff countered Netanyahu by asserting that a separate Palestinian state is the best guarantee for Israel’s long-term security with the borders of Israel and a Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines with mutual adjustments of territorial swaps. An estimated 1.7 million Palestinians are Israeli citizens and live in cities, towns and villages across the country. During Netanyahu’s tenure, Israel’s traditionally close relations with the USA have taken a beating, over the issue of the nuclear deal with Iran that is being negotiated with the P-5 + Germany. The slide began in 2009 with the spat over the Obama administration’s demarche to Israel that it should stop construction of illegal Jewish settlements in the OPTs. Israel-USA bilateral relations became a partisan issue in domestic American politics, reaching the bizarre nadir when the Speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, invited Netanyahu to address the US Congress against the wishes of the Obama administration. This event was a remarkable breach of protocol apart from being unprecedented in international diplomacy. Netanyahu told a joint session of Congress that President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran was dangerous and must be rejected. The Congress, minus many Democrats who boycotted Netanyahu’s speech, gave him several standing ovations, making the event a Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 The USA has long supported a two-state solution and Netanyahu’s remarks have led to statements that the USA will have to reevaluate its position on this issue. The Obama administration clearly intends to push Netanyahu on the two-state solution and will not be deterred from going ahead with the Iran nuclear deal. In an apparent snub to Netanyahu, Obama waited more than two days before making the customary congratulatory call to Netanyahu and conveyed that the White House would re-assess its options in the light of Netanyahu’s backtracking on the two-state issue. Page 3 The USA should hardly be surprised by Netanyahu’s posturing. He had opposed the Oslo accords in 1994 and had even called then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin a “traitor”. Netanyahu had also opposed the withdrawal of Israeli settlers from Gaza. Netanyahu may have handed the Iranians some extra leverage and in the process undermined his goal of scuttling the Iranian nuclear deal. The incentive for concluding the deal will now be a factor in American calculations which has to now to weigh the Iranian assessment of the open letter sent by 47 Republican senators to the Iranian leadership, warning Iran that a Republican administration will disavow any agreement. As a sabotage technique, such a move is unprecedented in international relations. Iran nuclear deal that Netanyahu had opposed so strongly is almost done. Israel will have to grin and bear it and deal with a chastened but resurgent Iran. Israel is unlikely to take unilateral action in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel’s dilemma will, therefore, continue but the threat to Israel’s security stands diminished with the Arab world in turmoil and Iran’s nuclear threat boxed in for several years. (The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at ORF) The Yemen Crisis and Collective Arab Security Kanchi Gupta On March 25, 2015, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen to thwart the Houthi militia’s advance towards Aden, where the Saudi backed Yemeni President Mansour Hadi had sought refuge. Termed as “Operation Decisive Storm”, the mission has been actively supported by the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Sudan and Egypt while Morocco, Pakistan, Jordan, Turkey and Somalia have conveyed their backing for the operation. The relationship between Obama and Netanyahu has undergone severe strain with the most recent collapse of the US-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in April last year. Israel’s seven-week long bombing of Gaza further strained relations with the White House, which backed its traditional ally while expressing growing unease over the deaths of Palestinian civilians. Kerry’s attempts to broker a ceasefire in the conflict also ended in embarrassing failure – and hostile briefing against the US Secretary of State from Israeli sources, further infuriated the White House. Few days after the aerial intervention, regional leaders declared their support for a joint Arab intervention force. At the 26th Arab League Summit, held in Egypt on 28 and 29 March, 2015, member states agreed “in principle” to establish a rapid response force to safeguard against national security threats, including the rise of terrorism. While restoring the legitimate government in Yemen was top priority at the conference, several leaders referred to foreign powers that have stoked sectarian rivalries in the Arab States. Yet it was Netanyahu’s decision to deliver his speech against an Iran nuclear deal before the Republican-controlled Congress that really riled the Obama administration. In damage control mode, senior White House figures have publicly downplayed the damage to relations, but the consequences of Netanyahu’s speech will be far reaching and Israel can expect unfavourable decisions and unfriendly moves by the Obama administration in the months to come. The Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Arab League Chief Nabil Elaraby named Iran, Turkey and Israel as external aggressors. He Page 4 1982 during the Iraq-Iran war and headquartered in northern Saudi Arabia. The Force, consisting of only 5000 troops at the time of establishment, was significantly reinforced after it failed to repel Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in the 1990s. stated that “there is meddling by some neighbours...Israel...Turkish and Iranian interference in several countries”. Simultaneously, Saudi officials stated that the operation in Yemen was not a “proxy war” but aimed at protecting the legitimate Yemeni government from a group (Houthis) that is allied with and supported by Iran and Hezbollah. The call for greater military integration was recently put forward by the late King Abdullah at the GCC Summit in Riyadh in 2011 at the height of the Arab Spring uprisings, and the decision to set up a joint military command force was taken at the 34th GCC Summit in Kuwait in 2013. Prior to this, at the 21st GCC summit in Manama in 2000, members signed a mutual defence pact which in turn, led to the creation of a joint GCC defence council and a supreme military committee. This pact codifies the GCC’s military strategy as outlined in 1982, which states that “aggression on a member state is aggression against the other states (and) a joint responsibility whose burden is on all member states”. The proposed formation of a joint Arab force indicates closing of ranks among Arab states over Iran and their willingness to set aside differences and join in an effort to counter Tehran-backed actors. Addressing the summit, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz stated that extremism and internal conflicts experienced by the Arab states are the result of an alliance between terrorism and sectarianism, which “is led by regional powers whose blatant interventions in the Arab region have resulted in undermining security and stability in some of our countries”....requiring “us to be vigilant and be in solidarity when taking necessary actions”. Operation Decisive Storm was the first deployment of the US-backed Joint GCC military Command set up at the 35th Ministerial and Heads of State Summit in Doha in December 2014. This principle was also codified by the member states of the Arab League at the summit in 1950 wherein a treaty of Joint Defence and Economic Cooperation was signed. However, joint deployments under the Arab League mandate have only taken place twice, including Kuwait in 1961 and Lebanon in 1976. The idea of collective security has been floated many times since the establishment of the GCC. At the IISS Manama Dialogue in December 2013, Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary General of the GCC, emphasised on “the concept of collective security as a major axis” in the works and interactions of the GCC. He referred to the role of the Peninsula Shield Forces in the liberation of Kuwait in 1991, and the military assistance to Bahrain against “external threats and interventions” in 2011 as an embodiment of this concept. The Peninsula Shield Force is a joint-GCC military force, established in Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 While several initiatives have been undertaken in the past, to develop regional security architecture, political differences between members have hindered military cooperation. Issues of sovereignty, fears of Saudi hegemony and intraregional disputes, such as those between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have prevented the development of significant security and defence integration between regional states. Consequently, the GCC states have preferred bilateral security arrangements with the US and EU states. Page 5 Cairo’s requests for extending the US-led antiIS coalition to North Africa were ignored. However, it is unlikely that all member states of the Arab League will be in agreement of joint defence strategies. While regional powers are signalling willingness to take greater military initiatives, independent of the USA, intra-regional political differences, historical animosities, issues of interoperability and sensitivities around information-sharing, command and control of joint forces are major impediments to collective security efforts. Oman has also been a significant “outlier” among its GCC counterparts. Muscat rejected Riyadh’s proposal of a greater GCC union, threatening to withdraw from the Council. Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi stated that the GCC “should not take on a military identity and it should keep away from regional conflicts”. In keeping with this policy, Oman did not contribute troops to the Peninsula Shield Forces’ operation in Bahrain in 2011 and to Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen. Arab leaders’ disagreements with US policies on Iran, Syria and Egypt have however, elevated efforts to establish a regional security framework. Symbolically, the creation of the joint Arab intervention force was announced two day before the March 31st deadline for the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5 + 1. The military cooperation agreement also symbolises tentative Saudi rapprochement with Qatar as well as between Egypt and Qatar. (The writer is a Junior Fellow at ORF) Iraq on the Edge: PM al-Abadi and the War against the Islamic State Sikandar Azam In September 2014, when Haider al-Abadi replaced Nouri al-Maliki as the Prime Minister of Iraq, there was hope among the leaders of the Sunni Arab world and the Kurdistan region that the new government will create a balance among Iraq’s ethno-sectarian groups –Sunnis, Shias and Kurds. Al-Abadi, however, became Prime Minister when the country was essentially in ruins. Firstly, there was a serious political crisis between Baghdad and Erbil over oil. Secondly, diplomatic relations were also not cordial with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Thirdly, the IS has posed a serious threat to Baghdad by capturing a third of Iraq, including Mosul –the second largest city in the country. Meanwhile, Kurds have moved towards the oil-rich Kirkuk and threatened to secede. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have been at odds with Qatar due to Doha’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and opposing Islamist militia groups in Syria and Libya. News reports suggest that Riyadh’s new monarch, King Salman, is making concerted efforts to “consolidate the Sunni states” against Iran and the Islamic State while looking beyond differences over the Muslim Brotherhood. As the security threat from the IS is rising and the Arab States are increasingly engaged in geostrategic competition with Iran and its regional “proxies”, there is greater willingness among regional powers to ‘go it alone’. In August 2014, Egypt and the UAE launched strikes against Islamist militias in Libya, without informing the US. Egypt also targeted IS strongholds in Libya in February 2015 as Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 In nearly six months, the new prime mister eased the long standoff between Baghdad and Erbil over the right to export oil directly through the Turkish-Iraqi pipe line network. Kurdistan regional government (KRG) Prime Page 6 al-Abadi’s strategy will be tested as to how he will manage the growing Iranian influence in the country. Mister Nechirvan Barzani and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi signed an interim agreement in early December last year in Baghdad. The new agreement stipulates that Baghdad will pay half of the all the revenue to KRG generated from the Kurdish controlled oil fields and Baghdad will also support the Peshmerga –Kurdish military forces. Prime Minisster Barzani said in a statement that the agreement is “a gesture of goodwill and chances of successful negotiation have increased.” Meanwhile Iraqi forces have achieved major success in the war against the IS in Tikrit. Iraqi forces launched a major offensive to retake Tikrit from the IS in early March along with the Shia militia under the command of top Iranian Major-General Qassem Sulaimani –the most senior officer who leads the Quds Forces division of Iranian revolutionary guard responsible for foreign operations. In terms of foreign policy and relations with the Arab world, al-Abadi’s efforts are remarkable. Over the past six months he sent several high-level delegations to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE to build up trust and garner support against the IS. Al-Abadi also visited Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to discuss the regional strategy to fight against the IS and boost bilateral cooperation. This progress in Iraq’s foreign policy underscores the importance of the Sunni bloc in defeating the IS and reconciling with Sunnis at home. In response, regional leaders warmly welcomed Baghdad’s efforts. Saudi Arabia indicated immediate willingness to cooperate with the al-Abadi government, whereas Turkey promised to provide intelligence support to Baghdad. The victory in Tikrit will boast the morale of the troops as well as the Iraqi government to launch further operations in areas under IS control. The Interior Minister of Iraq, Mohamed Al-Ghabban said that “the enemy (IS) has been removed and has lost all its abilities and morale. Most of Tikrit’s civilian areas have been liberated from ISIS elements, and there only remain but a few of them”. The victory in Tikrit over the IS is one of the major achievements of the al-Abadi government since he assumed office in September, 2014. In the meantime, there are concerns that the war against the IS is developing sectarian dimensions particularly when there is a large Iranian presence in the war and beyond. Shakhawan Abdullah, head of Iraqi parliamentary security and defence committee said that “Iran’s presence went beyond military advisers and experts” and the Iranians were fighting under the banner of Hashed Shaabi –popular mobilisation forces. For the al-Abadi government, however, in this war against the IS he has to maintain unity and coordination among the various actors fighting in Iraq against the IS, particularly the US-led coalition which has significant representation from the Arab world. Meanwhile presence of Shia militias, backed by Iran, is a matter of serious concern for Saudi Arabia and other Sunni blocs. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Saud al-Faisal, said in a statement during the visit of the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, to Riyadh that “Iran is taking over Iraq.” Now, Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 On the other hand, participation of a large number of tribal militias in the war against the IS is a matter of serious concern. They are poorly trained. According to unofficial reports 1000 militias have been killed in just three weeks in Tikrit that led to stalling of the operations by the Iraqi government. Salman Page 7 On the other side, local media suggests that the IS has proportional support among the Sunnis. On March 18, a video was posted on IS website, “Wuquf ashaire ma’a wilayate Kirkuk” (the support of Kirkuk’s clans for the Islamic State) clearly indicates that the IS has proportional support. These clans are mostly Sunni and located in the north of Baghdad in the capital of Kirkuk governorate. Aldossary of Asharq al-Awsat says that “the Iraqi government’s decision to commission illegal militias to act on its behalf will only lead to destruction.” He reiterated that the so called Hashed Shaabi –a popular mobilisation of forces, Shia and Sunni, supported by the government with heavy weaponry – will act like a trained state army. “The use of militias in the war show a failure of the al-Abadi government, despite its efforts to justify the use of militias in the war against the IS”, he added. Therefore, operations in other districts of Saladin province and Kirkuk will be a real test for the Iraqi forces as well as for Prime Minister al-Abadi’s strategy against the IS and his approach towards the Sunni tribes who have lent their support to the IS. Al-Abadi became the Prime Minister after replacing two-term Prime Minister al-Maliki who was under fire for his policy of excluding the Sunnis and creating sectarian tension in the country. The literature on private militia culture in Iraq suggests that private militia culture is a postSaddam phenomenon. Article 9 b of the Iraqi constitution makes it clear that “the formation of military militia outside the framework of the armed forces is prohibited.” The new government had pledged to demobilise the militia on priority basis. It was expected that the al-Maliki government would be able to accommodate these militias in the regular army framework. But his government could not translate this into realty and was ousted from power in September 2014. Now, there are 25-30 private militias in Iraq. Former US ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad had pointed out in July 2006, that “the existence of private militias has been a looming and a persistent problem in the country.” However, Prime Minister al-Abadi has tried to bridge the widening gulf between Baghdad and Erbil solving the issue of the supply of oil. Similarly, his diplomatic initiatives to balance relations with the Arab world have improved significantly. But there are issues that will pose a challenge to the al-Abadi government in coming days, particularly his policy towards the Sunni tribes in the country and Iran’s growing role in Iraq’s domestic affair. (The writer is a Research Assistant at ORF) REGIONALOPINION Translated by Sikandar Azam Yemeni crisis: Iran’s exit is the only solution are evolving in the Arab world. What is happening in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen is an Iranian escalation to break up national entities and re-divide the country in order to serve the Persian project. Editorial, al-Watan, Saudi Arabia Iran is seeking to dominate the region. Therefore, one cannot separate Iranian policy from political developments and divisions that Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 8 fight against terrorist organizations and save Yemen from collapse. Therefore, one cannot find solutions to these crises without denouncing Iranian interference in these four countries. However, countries in this region will not allow any group to implode because it threatens their interests and the interests of the entire region. Any state failure in Yemen means new chaos that directly affects the stability of the nations around it. The international community should be aware that any diplomatic solution will not be at the expense of the people of Yemen and the expense of its neighbours. For instance, the crisis in Yemen has reached an impasse. Terrorism, extremism and political blackmail now prevail in the country more than ever before. Yemeni political scenario predicts that the country will have stakeholders. In Yemen there is Tehran, al-Houthi, alQaeda, supporters of Saleh and his comrades, Muslim Brotherhood and finally the IS. The demographic composition of the country is also very complex. Tribes in Yemen were far away from any ethnic conflict thanks to their customs and traditions that prevented such a conflict. But there are now chances that they may also enter the conflict at any time for political reasons. Therefore, to bring stability in Yemen, Iran must exit from there and then one can hope to reach a solution to the Yemeni crisis. Editorial, Al-Watan, 24 March, 2015 Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen Abdulrahman al-Rashed, Asharq al-Awsat Moreover, the country is suffering, in addition to the political chaos, from the poorest development of social welfare. Human development indices in the country are very low and people are struggling for basic social goods. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition launched the first air attack on 26 March, targeting key military installations to oust the Houthis from the Yemeni capital of Sanaa. This attack surprised everyone. But this intervention by Saudi Arabia is to prevent Yemen from further disaster. Now there is a hope that all (groups fighting in Yemen) will come forward to find a peaceful resolution, including the rebellious Houthis and the isolated President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s group. In late March, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal made a statement saying that Saudi Arabia hoped “to resolve the Yemeni crisis peacefully, but if that does not happen, countries in the region will take necessary steps against aggression.” Earlier the Houthis had disowned the agreements and covenants they had signed with the Hadi government. (In September, 2014 the Houthis had agreed to withdraw their fighters from cities they seized once a new national unity government was formed.) Therefore, it was necessary to impose a new situation in the country. They had put the President, Prime Minister and rest of the members of the legitimate government under Yemen has very significant strategic location in the Arabian Peninsula. Proximity to the Bab al-Mandeb, (Strait of Mandeb) and the shores of the Arabian Sea give it natural advantages. Therefore, stability of Yemen is necessary for the regional as well as the international community. So an international intervention is required to find a political roadmap for all political parties in the country and then to Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 9 the people in the areas they had seized. It was Hadi’s government which was responsible for the salaries of government employees and the social welfare of the people and farmers in the country. house arrest. However, after the President fled to Aden along with some of his ministers, the Houthis continued their advance towards Aden. Yemenis felt that this is the end of Yemen. However when the Saudi air force launched aerial attacks targeting the militias, a ray of hope returned because the Saudi Arabia-led alliance involved the state administration under arrangements with, and supervision of the United Nation. The life of the people in the areas under Houthis’ control was very poor. The United Nations has already issued several warnings regarding the risk of famine in many regions of Yemen owing to mass disruption and limited social welfare in the country. However, Saudi Arabia’s intervention to stop the Houthis and their allies’ advance towards the east and the south is a new opportunity for Yemen. Earlier, there was chaos in the country with no capital and without a unified government. Armed groups including Houthis, members of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, southern separatist forces, tribal fighters and al-Qaeda had spread throughout the country. Among these groups, the Houthis tried to dominate in the country and captured a large swathe of territory in northern Yemen. The Houthis’ success was due to the fact that they were the most powerful rebellion in the country. In their latest move, they moved towards the maritime strategic corridor, Bab al-Mandeb, and tried to control it with the intention of depriving Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries from exporting their oil. If the Saudi Arabia-led coalition would have not intervened in Yemen, it would have been the fourth state to fall into a crisis after Syria, Libya and Somalia. However, Yemen is different from these three countries. The international community agrees with the political structure of Yemen. Therefore, it is possible to save it from chaos with the help of the international community. The Houthis have tried to break the agreement, which was sponsored by the United Nations in September last year. According to the peace deal brokered by the UN, Houthis had agreed to withdraw their fighters from the capital Sanaa once a national unity government was formed. Before the intervention by Saudi Arabia and other regional countries in Yemen, the situation was going from bad to worse and there was widespread civil war between various forces for a long time. However, the fact was that the Houthis had the upper hand in a series of open warfare. Thereafter in January, the Houthis rejected the draft of new constitution proposed by the Hadi government. Instead they continued their war against the government. But this time, Saudi Arabia broke the silence of its neutrality and its silence on Iran. Therefore, it has decided to strengthen the central government and the State of a new Yemen. Due to limited resources and political chaos, intervention was necessary in the country. The Houthis have insufficient resources to run the country, despite the fact that they had some oil fields under their control. Earlier, in northern Yemen, they were involved only in military activities and did not handle the grievances of Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Source: Asharq al-Awsat, 27 March, 2015 Page 10 COMMENTARIES The Great in Yemen Game Folio: After King Salman picked up the telephone to call Sharif on Saturday, the official Saudi news agency said the PM had offered to put the full services of the Pakistan army at the disposal of Riyadh. The question was probably never about whether Pakistan would join the operations. It was related to the nature of Pakistan’s contribution and how it should be presented to its public. Pakistan C Raja Mohan, Distinguished Fellow, ORF, New Delhi Islamabad is under pressure from Saudi Arabia to join the military operations by the Sunni coalition that Riyadh is leading against the Iran-backed Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen. But there is little popular support in Pakistan for jumping into a war that has acquired such a sharp sectarian edge. Domestic Scepticism Amidst the growing tensions between the Shia and Sunni at home, many in Pakistan argue that it is utterly unwise for Pakistan to join the sectarian strife in the Middle East. Others point to the dangers of being drawn into the proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran that are unfolding in the region. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was summoned a few weeks ago to Riyadh as King Salman considered muscular options to reverse the Houthi advances in Yemen. Besides Pakistan’s longstanding special relationship with Saudi Arabia, Sharif personally owes much to the House of Saud that saved him from the wrath of General Pervez Musharraf after the army ousted him in a coup at the end of 1999. Although supporting Riyadh will certainly bring some rewards for Pakistan, it also complicates relations with Iran, with which it shares a long and increasingly restive border. Further, Pakistan’s borders with India and Afghanistan are unstable and the army has enough on its hands countering the Islamist insurgency at home. A military adventure far from the borders, many in Pakistan argue, makes little strategic sense. After the Saudis launched air strikes on Yemen last Thursday, Riyadh put out the word that Pakistan has agreed to join the campaign. In Islamabad, the foreign office would neither confirm nor deny the reports. It merely stated that the government of Pakistan was “considering” the Saudi request. Finally, there is Pakistan’s self-perception as a leading force in the Islamic world. Much like India’s notions of third-world solidarity, Pakistan’s “Islamic Internationalism” opposes taking sides in the conflicts between Muslim countries and demands that Pakistan promote reconciliation. But the multiple reservations being expressed in public might have no policy consequence for Pakistan. The issue is too big for the civilian government in Islamabad to decide. It will be the Pakistan The defence minister of Pakistan, Khawaja Asif, told the National Assembly that Pakistan has made no promise to Saudi Arabia on joining the coalition. As the government of Pakistan dissimulated in public, there were reports in the Saudi media that 10 Pakistani jets were taking part in the air operations in Yemen and that its navy might be joining the operations. Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 11 army, headquartered in Rawalpindi that will take the call. it had to provide a variety of military services that they demanded. Raj Legacy With Saudi Arabia now so fearful of a rising Iran, it is quite clearly Pakistan’s payback time. And Yemen could mark the beginning of a new and more significant phase in Pakistan’s involvement in the security politics of the Gulf. The civil war in Yemen and the Saudi demand for military support bring into sharp relief Pakistan’s longstanding security role in the Gulf and the Middle East. Pakistan and its army figured prominently in the plans of Britain and America for securing the (oil) “Wells of Power” in the Gulf after World War II. Source: The Indian Express, 31 March, 2015 As U.S. and Iran Seek Nuclear Deal, Saudi Arabia Makes Its Own Moves Pakistan was drafted into the Central Treaty Organisation (Cento), also called the Baghdad Pact, in the mid-1950s. Although the Cento did not last long, many Gulf kingdoms turned to India and Pakistan for defence cooperation. After all, it was undivided India under the Raj that was the security guarantor for the Gulf and the Middle East for nearly two centuries. David D. Kirkpatrick, The New York Times As America talks to Iran, Saudi Arabia is lashing out against it. The kingdom, Iran’s chief regional rival, is leading airstrikes against an Iranian-backed faction in Yemen; backing a blitz in Idlib, Syria, by jihadists fighting the Iranian-backed Assad regime; and warning Washington not to allow the Iranianbacked militia to capture too much of Iraq during the fight to roll back the Islamic State, according to Arab diplomats familiar with the talks. As India consciously limited its military role in the Middle East, Pakistan’s army became a valuable option for many countries in the region in providing security against internal threats, manning and training of military forces and guarding the national borders. Pakistan, of course, is not the Raj. It has a vantage location next to the Middle East and an Islamist ideology, but not the military and economic weight to protect the Gulf regimes on its own. The political equation between Rawalpindi and the Gulf rapidly altered as the kingdoms became rich and Pakistan remained poor. Through Egypt, a major beneficiary of Saudi aid, the kingdom is backing plans for a combined Arab military force to combat Iranian influence around the region. With another major aid recipient, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is also expected to step up its efforts to develop a nuclear bomb, potentially setting off an arms race in the region. “Taking matters into our own hands is the name of the game today,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a veteran Saudi journalist and former adviser to the government. “A deal will open up the Saudi appetite and the Turkish appetite for more nuclear programs. But for the time being Saudi Arabia is moving ahead If the Raj defined the terms of regional security in the Middle East, Pakistan increasingly became dependent on the financial support of the Gulf kingdoms. In the name of Islamic solidarity, Pakistan allowed the Gulf regimes, especially Saudi Arabia, to trample on its national sovereignty. Above all, Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 12 with its operations to pull the carpet out from underneath the Iranians in our region.” Damascus, Baghdad and Beirut, the last through its proxy, Hezbollah. With the approach of a self-imposed Tuesday night deadline for the framework of a nuclear deal between Iran and the Western powers, the talks themselves are already changing the dynamics of regional politics. Even if the proposed deal constrains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Saudis and their allies note, the pact would do nothing to stop Iran from projecting its influence through such local proxies and conventional arms. Sanctions relief from the deal could even revive the Iranian economy with a flood of new oil revenues. The proposed deal would trade relief from economic sanctions on Iran for insurance against the risk that Iran might rapidly develop a nuclear bomb. But many Arab analysts and diplomats say that security against the nuclear risk may come at the cost of worsening ongoing conflicts around the Middle East as Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Muslim allies push back against what they see as efforts by Shiiteled Iran to impose its influence — often on sectarian battle lines. “The Americans seem nonchalant about this, like, ‘This is your sectarian problem, you deal with it,’ ” Mr. Khashoggi said. “So the Saudis went ahead with this Yemen operation.” Watching Secretary of State John Kerry pursue a deal in Lausanne, Switzerland, many in Saudi Arabia and other Arab states say their ultimate fear is that the talks could lead to a broader détente or even alliance between Washington and Tehran. Unless Iran pulls back, “you will see more direct Arab responses and you will see a higher level of geopolitical tension in the whole region,” argued Nabil Fahmy, a veteran Egyptian diplomat and former foreign minister. Washington is already tacitly coordinating with Iran in its fight against ISIS in Iraq. As a result, the American-led military campaign is effectively strengthening the Iranian-backed government in Syria by weakening its most dangerous foe, Arab diplomats and analysts say. In Yemen, where a bombing campaign by a Saudi-led coalition killed dozens of civilians in an errant strike on a camp for displaced families, the Saudis accuse Iran of supporting the Houthi movement, which follows a form of Shiite Islam and recently came close to taking control of the country’s four largest cities. (Western diplomats say Iran has provided money to the group but does not control it.) In Bahrain, across a short causeway from Saudi Arabia, the kingdom and its allies accuse Iran of backing opposition from the Shiite majority against the Sunni monarchy. So they wonder what else Mr. Kerry is talking about with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, “on those long walks together” in Lausanne, said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center, in Qatar. “Is there something going on underneath the table?” Easing the hostility between the United States and Iran would tear up what has been a bedrock principle of regional politics since the Iranian revolution and the storming of the American embassy in 1979. “But let’s not forget that we are still dealing with the Islamic And Iran has also cultivated clients in government in the great Arab capitals of Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 13 Aversion to the Iran deal in the Saudi camp is also representative of the latest convergence of views with the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been deeply critical of the nuclear pact. But “they can be on the same side without necessarily talking,” said Mr. Soltan of the American University in Cairo. Republic of Iran,” Mr. Shaikh said, reflecting the skeptical views of many in the Saudi Arabian camp. “There is a disbelief in the Arab world that these negotiations are only about the nuclear file, and a frequent complaint here is that we are kept in the dark, we are not consulted,” said Gamal Abdel Gawad Soltan, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo. “The U.S. is much less trusted as an ally, as an insurance policy towards the security threats facing the governments in the region, and so those governments decide to act on their own.” Whether an Iran deal is consummated or not, he and several other analysts said, the negotiations have contributed to a divergence with the Obama administration and a growing desire for greater autonomy among the Sunni Arab states. Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies bucked the Obama administration to sponsor the military takeover and repression of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in 2013, for example. And last year the United Arab Emirates carried out airstrikes from Egyptian bases against Islamist allied militias in Tripoli, Libya, without notifying Washington. Some American diplomats were so incredulous that the U.A.E. acted on its own that they doubted early reports until a second set of strikes confirmed them. President Obama has argued that a verifiable deal is the best way to secure the Arab states because it is the most effective way to ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear bomb. Even military action to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Obama administration argues, would set it back only temporarily. Some analysts further maintain that a nuclear deal could induce Tehran to adopt a less confrontational foreign policy as well, by engaging it in economic and diplomatic relations with the West and, eventually, its neighbors. If Iran were less of a pariah, it would have more to lose, argued Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “An engaged Iran is a less threatening Iran,” she said. “I think a nuclear deal with Iran will have a calming impact on the region.” “There are issues that you cannot expect a superpower to engage in directly because of their own politics and interests, and if you don’t have the capabilities or the initiatives to deal with them yourself then you are not providing enough of a deterrent to other regional players,” said Mr. Fahmy, the former Egyptian foreign minister. He added, speaking of Arab relations with Washington, “There is a difference between a security relationship and a security addiction.” But she acknowledged that at the moment Saudi Arabia and its allies did not see it that way. “The Saudi and Iranian rivalry is being played out now in a hot war in Iraq, in Syria and now in Yemen,” she said. “The confrontation is causing people on both sides to dig into their sectarian positions.” Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Mr. Khashoggi, the Saudi editor, argued that Saudi Arabia’s own campaign to push back against Iran without waiting for the Americans was showing signs of success. Saudi Arabian Page 14 The after-the-fact American support for the military campaign in Yemen, he said, was also a reassuring sign that Washington was willing to back Saudi leadership as it pushes back against Iran across the region. “The Americans are going along with that,” he said. and Turkish sponsors, he said, had backed the coalition of jihadist groups that recently captured the Syrian city of Idlib in the first major victory in months against the government of President Bashar al-Assad. One participant in the coalition was the Nusra Front, the Syrian arm of Al Qaeda, a terrorist group in the eyes of the West. But members of the jihadi coalition “are the ones who captured Idlib, it is an important development, and I think we are going to see more of that,” Mr. Khashoggi said. “Coordination between Turkish and Saudi intelligence has never been as good as now.” The operation “proved that a regional power can lead, they do not have to wait for America,” he said, “and if the issue is moral or justified, American will get on board.” Source: The New York Times, 30 March, 2015 STATEMENTS vibrant people to people contacts. The wideranging discussions were held in a sincere, friendly and forward looking atmosphere. There was exchange of views on bilateral, regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest. Joint Statement during the State Visit of the Emir of the State of Qatar to India, March 25-26, 2015 Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Emir of the State of Qatar paid a State visit to India from 24-25 March 2015. The Emir was accompanied by a high level delegation comprising Ministers, senior officials, business leaders and captains of industry. As part of his official engagements in New Delhi, the Emir held detailed bilateral discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Emir received Vice President Shri Hamid Ansari, Minister of External Affairs and Overseas Indian Affairs Smt Sushma Swaraj and Minister of State (Independent Charge) Petroleum and Natural Gas Shri Dharmendra Pradhan. The two sides expressed satisfaction at the regular exchange of visits between the two countries in recent years. They noted that the bilateral relationship acquired a new momentum following the landmark visits of the then Emir HH Sheikh Hamad bin khalifa Al Thani to India in 1999, 2005 and 2012 and received strong impetus with the visit of the then Prime Minister of India to the State of Qatar in November 2008. The two sides discussed ways and means to build a forward-looking partnership by further broadening and deepening the bilateral engagement and by better leveraging the existing complementarities between the two countries in key areas of mutual interest including inter alia, energy, power, During the official discussions, the two sides underlined the close and friendly bilateral ties, deep-rooted in shared history and sustained and nourished through growing economic linkages, multi-faceted cooperation and Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 15 iv. MoU between India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth sciences and Qatar Meteorological Department for Scientific and Technical cooperation in the field of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences. petrochemicals, investments, infrastructure, development, project exports, education, culture, health, human resource, media and information technology. The two sides stressed the importance of continuing regular bilateral consultations through the robust architecture of dialogue in place, including the Composite Delegation Mechanism, Foreign Office Consultations and various joint committees and working groups. It was emphasized that the sectoral Joint Working Groups should meet more often to strengthen cooperation. v. MoU for cooperation in the field of Radio and Television between Prasar Bharati and Qatar Media Corporation. vi. Agreement for Mutual Cooperation and Exchange of News between Qatar News Agency and United New Agency. HH the Emir expressed appreciation for the role and contribution of the Indian community towards the development of Qatar. He noted with satisfaction that Indians in Qatar were highly respected for their peaceful and hardworking nature. The Indian side conveyed sincere thanks to the Qatari leadership for hosting the Indian community and for ensuring their continued well-being and safety. Both sides noted with satisfaction that the latest round of Foreign Office Consultations held in New Delhi in June 2014 were useful in reviewing progress in bilateral relations and exchanging views of regional and international issues of mutual interest. It was decided that next such consultations would be held in Qatar in the first half of 2016 and dates will be decided through diplomatic channels. Both sides informed each other of their plans for infrastructure development. The Indian side highlighted the considerable experience and expertise its companies had acquired in infrastructure development, including in power generation and transmission, civil construction, railways and metros, hospitals, airports, housing, roads etc. It conveyed the interest of the Indian companies to be a partner in the infrastructure development projects undertaken by Qatar in preparation for the FIFA 2022 world cup and the development plans under vision "2030 for Qatar". The two sides welcomed the signing of following Agreement/MOUs: i. Agreement between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of State of Qatar on the Transfer of sentenced Persons. ii. MoU on Mutual Cooperation between the Foreign Service Institute, Ministry of External Affairs, Republic of India and the Qatar Diplomatic Institute, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, State of Qatar. iii. MoU between Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, Government of the Republic of India and the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology of the State of Qatar for cooperation in the field of Information and Communication Technology. Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 The Indian side invited Qatar to participate in projects creating mega industrial manufacturing corridors, including the DelhiMumbai industrial corridor. The Qatari side expressed keen interest in the flagship-"Make Page 16 the multilateral system of the UN. The two sides stressed the need for closer cooperation in the area of security and counter-terrorism through regular dialogue, sharing of information, intelligence and assessments and training of personnel. in India” programme. The Indian side also informed the Qatari side of the Clean Ganga Programme and Digital India Programme. The two sides appreciated the close cultural affinity between Qatar and India, which continued to underpin the bilateral relationship. They lauded the role culture plays in bringing the people of India and Qatar together. The two sides exchanged views on regional and international issues of mutual interest, including the security situation in West Asia, Middle East and South Asia. Both sides also reiterated the importance of peaceful resolution of all issues, regional or global through dialogue. The two sides condemned terrorism in its all forms and manifestations and affirmed that it threatened all societies and was not linked to any race, colour or faith. Both sides agreed to strengthen their cooperation in combating terrorism at both the bilateral level and within Source: Ministry of External Affairs, India, 26 March, 2015 MEDIAWATCH Iran agrees to detailed nuclear outline, first step towards wider deal India invites Qatar to participate in mega transport projects Iran and the United States, along with five other world powers, announced on Thursday a surprisingly specific and comprehensive understanding on limiting Tehran’s nuclear program for the next 15 years, though they left several specific issues to a final agreement in June. India has invited energy-rich Qatar to participate in mega transport projects like Delhi- Mumbai industrial corridor and conveyed the interest of Indian companies in involving in projects undertaken by the Gulf nation as part of its preparation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Source: The New York Times, April 2, 2015 Source: The Economic Times, 26 March, 2015 Operation Raahat: over 600 evacuated India seeks KSA help to evacuate citizens In the largest evacuation as part of Operation Raahat so far, three Air India flights airlifted 488 people from Sana’a to Djibouti while naval patrol vessel INS Sumitra rescued 203 people, including 19 foreign nationals from eight countries, from Ash Shihr via Al Muqalla port. India asked Saudi Arabia to help evacuate its citizens from Yemen, where more than 4,000 Indians, over half of them nurses, are caught up in fighting. Source: Arab News, 31 March, 2015 Saudi airstrikes target rebel bases in Yemen Source: The Hindu, 5 April, 2015 Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 17 Saudi Arabia bombed key military installations in Yemen after announcing a broad regional coalition to oust Shiite rebels that forced the country’s embattled president to flee. Iraqi forces take back Tikrit from ISIS, official says Iraqi forces battling to wrest Tikrit from ISIS are now in control of the city, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Iraqiya TV. Source: Asharq al-Awsat, 26 March, 2015 Source: CNN, 31 March, 2015 Egypt, Pakistan join military campaign against Houthis Al-Shabab attacks killing at least 147 Pakistan and Egypt announced their participation in the ongoing Saudi-led military campaign against Houthis with air and naval forces. university, Masked al-Shabab militants stormed dormitories at a university in eastern Kenya early, killing at least 147 people in the worst terror attack on Kenyan soil in nearly two decades, officials said. Source: Al-Arabiya, 26 March, 2015 Source: The Washington Post, 2 April, 2015 Houthi rebels advance in Aden despite air strikes EU welcomes Saudi Arabia’s announcement to meet with all Yemeni parties Yemen's Houthi rebels, supported by army units, have gained ground in the southern city of Aden, despite an 11th night of coalition air strikes targeting the group's strongholds. The European Union welcomed the announcement of King Salman about the Saudi Arabia's readiness to meet with all Yemeni parties adhering to the security and stability of Yemen. Source: Aljazeera, 5 April, 2015 Arab League unveils joint military force amid Yemen crisis Source: Saudi Press Agency, 31 March, 2015 A two-day Arab summit ended with a vow to defeat Iranian-backed Shiite rebels in Yemen and the formal unveiling of plans to form a joint Arab intervention force. Saudi-US talks “fruitful and constructive”: Saudi FM US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Riyadh to ease Saudi and Gulf concerns about an emerging nuclear deal with Iran. Source: The Indian Express, 30 March, 2015 Al-Qaeda storms Yemen prison, frees 300 inmates Source: Ashar al-Awsat, 6 March, 2015 Al-Qaeda militants stormed a prison in southeastern Yemen, freeing several hundred inmates including one of their leaders, a security official said. Saudi Arabia becomes world’s biggest arms importer Saudi Arabia passed India to become the world’s biggest arms importer last year as concerns about Iran’s ambitions increase tensions in the Middle East. Source: The Indian Express, 2 April, 2015 Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Kenyan Page 18 Source: The Japan Times, 8 March, 2015 Source: The Wall Street Journal, 13 March, 2015 Boko Haram, Islamic State join forces amid rising military pressure Iraqis who support IS will be barred from liberated areas: Barzani Islamic State militants have accepted a pledge of allegiance by the Nigerian-grown Boko Haram extremist group, a spokesman for the Islamic State said. President of The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Massoud Barzani told in a meeting of leaders of Sunni tribes based west of Mosul that citizens who backed the IS will not be allowed back into liberated areas. Source: The Indian Express, 13 March, 2015 International coalition bombing killed 50 Iraqi soldiers in Anbar: MP Fatlawi Source: Asharq al-Awsat, 16 March, 2015 Israeli PM Netanyahu emerges victorious in tight election race The head of Irada bloc MP Hanan al-Fatlawi claimed that the indiscriminate shelling of the US-led coalition has left 50 soldiers dead and dozens of others wounded in Anbar. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud Party scored a resounding victory in the country’s election. Source: Iraqi News, 13 March, 2015 Source: The Indian Express, 18 March, 2015 Kerry says US willing to negotiate with Syria's Assad Egypt unveils plans to build new capital east of Cairo The US will have to negotiate with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a political transition in Syria and explore ways to pressure him into agreeing to talks, US Secretary of State Kerry said. The Egyptian government has announced plans to build a new capital. Housing Minister of Egypt Mostafa Madbouly said the project would cost $45bn (£30bn) and take five to seven years to complete. Source: Aljazeera, 16 March, 2015 Source: BBC, 13 March, 2015 CIA director suggests Iraq functions as interlocutor in US-Iran fight against IS Tehran Riyadh John Brennan, the director of CIA said that the US was formally coordinating its airstrikes in Iraq with Iranian forces and proxies on the ground. welcomes security talks with Iran has welcomed Saudi Arabia’s decision to take part in security talks with the Islamic Republic. Source: The Guardian, 13 March, 2015 Source: Tehran Times, 16 March, 2015 Gulf States pledge aid to Egypt, U.S. Balks Netanyahu 'still committed' to Palestinian statehood Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE pledged $12 billion to help stabilize Egypt’s economy. Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to have softened his tone from hard-line statements made during his re-election Page 19 campaign about the establishment of a Palestinian state. Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf expressed concern over his country’s diplomatic row with Saudi Arabia, offering to help in resolving the issue. Source: Aljazeera, 19 March, 2015 Libyan PM to divert country’s oil revenues to new account Source: Al-Arabiya, 22 March, 2015 Yemen crisis: US troops withdraw from air base Libya’s internationally recognized government said it plans to open a bank account abroad to deposit oil revenues, hoping to divert proceeds from the industry away from the country’s rival administration in Tripoli. The United States has evacuated its remaining military personnel from Yemen because of the deteriorating security situation, US officials have confirmed. Source: Arab News, 6 April, 2015 Source: BBC, 22 March, 2015 Saudi Arabia invites Iraq's Abadi to visit in big sign of thaw Happy with jihad, I won't come back to India, Kalyan youth with ISIS says King Salman has invited Iraqi PM al-Abadi to visit the kingdom, in the biggest sign yet of improving ties between the countries after decades of tension. Fahad Shaikh, one of the four Kalyan youths who ran away and joined the IS has got in touch with his family, but rebuffed calls to return, saying "I am happy with my jihadi work.” Source: Reuters, 23 March, 2015 Abbas threatens to turn to ICC over frozen tax monies Source: Times of India, 22 March, 2015 U.S. Boosts military presence in gulf waters as Iran deal inches closer Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas threatened to turn to the International Criminal Court over Israel’s refusal to fully release hundreds of millions of dollars in tax monies owed the Palestinian Authority. Source: Arab News, 6 April, 2015 3,000 U.S. military personnel have moved into the Persian Gulf region for a military exercise that coincides with the finalization of a nuclear agreement with Iran, according to officials from U.S. Central Command. Iran accused of sending 30,000 troops to fight in Iraq Source: The Washington Free Beacon, 23 March, 2015 Kurdish authorities in Iraq have accused Iran of sending 30,000 soldiers and military experts to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group. Top diplomats rally behind KSA on Yemen Top foreign diplomats stationed in Riyadh representing Europe, Americas, Asia and Africa have lent their strong support to the military effort of the Arab world led by Saudi Arabia to end the widespread instability and chaos in Yemen. Source: Aljazeera, 23 March, 2015 Swedish king offers to contribute in resolving issue with Saudi Arabia Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 20 Source: Arab News, 27 March, 2015 Counterterrorism squads have prevented 230 suspected jihadis from departing Australian airports for the Middle East including at least three teenage boys this month, officials said. Oil prices go crazy as Saudi Arabia goes to war in Yemen Crude oil prices were back at their highest in two weeks at $51.32 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and its allies launched airstrikes against the Houthi in Yemen. Source: The Japan Times, 25 March, 2015 Source: Fortune, 26 March, 2015 Canada plans to expand its mission against Islamic State militants by sending fighter bombers to attack targets in Syria as well as Iraq, sources said. Canada will expand anti-ISIS bombing campaign to Syria: sources Iranian FM: Saudi Arabia must end Yemen attack Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif called for an immediate end to the air strikes on the Yemeni capital by Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, saying that such moves will achieve nothing for the aggressors. Source: Reuters, 24 March, 2015 Uzbek Group in Afghanistan allegiance to Islamic State A group of Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan, claiming to be from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), says it is pledging allegiance to the Islamic State extremist group. Source: ABNA, 26 March, 2015 Iran, Russia demand immediate halt to Saudi-led intervention in Yemen Source: RFERL, 31 March, 2015 Iran and Russia have called on Saudi Arabia to halt airstrikes on Yemen as supporters of Yemen’s ruling Houthi militants stage demonstrations throughout the country, protesting against the Saudi-led military intervention. An anxious wait in Syrian city held by insurgents Residents of the northern Syrian provincial capital of Idlib are waiting anxiously to learn who will govern them, and how, after Islamist insurgent groups hoisted their flags over the city. Source: RT, 26 March, 2015 Saudi-Pakistani Forces exercise “Al-Samsam 5” start military Source: The New York Times, 30 March, 2015 Royal Saudi Land Forces and units of Special Forces of Pakistani army started the joint exercise “Al-Samsam 5” in Shamrakh field, north of Baha region. Saudi Arabia could launch ground troops in Yemen Saudi Arabian ground troops are expected to march through Yemen, leading to a further escalation of a conflict in which Riyadh and its Sunni Arab allies have been fighting Shia Houthi rebels. Source: Saudi Press Agency, 30 March, 2015 230 suspected jihadis prevented from leaving Australia Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 pledge Page 21 Source: International Business Times, 30 March, 2015 Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Marziyeh Afkham, in a statement on refuted accusations about Iran sending weapons to Yemen. Iran rejects arms dispatch accusations Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iran, 31 March, 2015 BIBLIOGRAPHY Tariq Alhomayed, Who is calling for a Saudi– Turkish alliance? Asharq al-Awsat, 12 March, 2015 Vijay Prashad, The Kurdish Front, The Hindu, 24 March, 2015 C Raja Mohan, Nawaz Sharif in Saudi Arabia: Pakistan’s Leverage in the Gulf, The Indian Express, 5 March, 2015 Claudia Rosett, Obama’s Iran policy is lost at Sea, The Wall Street Journal, 26 March, 2015 Thomas E. Ricks, In Tikrit, no matter who wins, we lose, Foreign Policy, 19 March, 2015 Omar Waraich, Why Pakistan may be a reluctant ally in Saudis' Yemen campaign, Aljazeera, 27 March, 2015 Steven Mufson, Is Obama’s Iran overture like Nixon’s opening to China?, The Washington Post, 14 March, 2015 Hakim Almasmari, Yemen Conflict Devolves Into Proxy War, The Wall Street Journal, 26 March, 2015 Marwan Bishara, Israel chose - will the Palestinians? Aljazeera, 18 March, 2015 Hisae Nakanishi, What is the national interest of Iran? Teharan Times, 8 March, 2015 Mohammad al-Rumaihi, Salman’s agenda and new Saudi strategy, Gulf News, 7 March, 2015 Cole Bunzel, From Paper State to Caliphate: The Ideology of the Islamic State, Brookings, 1 March, 2015 Editorial, America’s uncomfortable ally, The Guardian, 6 March, 2015 Lina Khatib, Riyadh is setting itself up as region’s policeman, The Independent, 29 March, 2015 Con Coughlin, The Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy war is heating up in Yemen, The Telegraph, 23 March, 2015 Editorial, Abetting Egypt’s Dictatorship, The New York Times, 19 March, 2015 H.A. Hellyer, The new Saudi king, Egypt and the MB, Al-Monitor, 23 March, 2015 Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, An opportune time for new think tanks in Saudi Arabia, AlArabiya News, 26 March, 2015 Lina Khatib, The Nusra Front’s Game Changing Rise in Syria, Carnegie, 24 March, 2015 Bruce Riedel, Saudi Arabia prepares for Iran nuclear deal, Al-Monitor, 8 March, 2015 Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Renad Mansour, The Significance of Retaking Tikrit, Carnegie, 2 March, 2015 Page 22 Hussein Ibish, The Spectre of an Arab Israel, Politico Magazine, 23 March, 2015 Annika Folkeson, Islamist Groups: Parties and Factions, Wilson Centre, 17 March, 2015 Tawfiq Al-Saif, Time for joint Arab action, Arab News, 21 March, 2015 Libya’s IS expansion puts Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria under threat, Al-Hayat, 15 March, 2015 John Bell, To understand Syria today, we must look to history, Aljazeera, 16 March, 2015 Roger Cohen, Iran Matters Most, The New York Times, 30 March, 2015 Faisal J. Abbas, Why ‘Operation: Decisive Storm’ was needed in Yemen, Al-Arabiya, 26 March, 2015 Editorial, An Arab military force could compound the region’s problems, The Washington Post, 30 March, 2015 By Akhilesh Pillalamarri, Why Saudi Arabia Needs Pakistan, The Diplomat, 12 March, 2015 Daniel R. DePetris, Mitt Romney Is Wrong on Iran, The Diplomat, 24 March, 2015 Burcu Ozcelik, Will the PKK Disarm?, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 19 March, 2015 Allison Corkery, Heba Khalil, Nothing New on the Nile Nothing New on the Nile, Foreign Policy, 12 March, 2015 Con Coughlin, Yemen is a battlefield for Saudi Arabia and Iran, The Telegraph, 21 March, 2015 Fehim Taştekin, Pakistan warns Turkey: Don’t make our mistakes, Al-Monitor, 16 March, 2015 Arash Karami, 90% of Iran MPs: All sanctions must be removed, Al-Monitor, 16 March, 2015 Hayat Alvi, Millions in U.S. military equipment lost as Yemen heads down Syria’s path, Reuters, 24 March, 2015 Mark Mazzetti and David D. Kirkpatrick, A Policy Puzzle of U.S. Goals and alliances in the Middle East, The New York Times, 26 March, 2015 Sami Yousafzai, Taliban Leaders Are Living in Luxury in Qatar, News Week, 24 March, 2015 Diaa Hadid, Arab Alliance Rises as Force in Israeli elections, The New York Times, 15 March, 2015 Aymenn Jawad AlTamimi, The Islamic State and its “Sinai Province”, Al-Monitor, 26 March, 2015 Julian Pecquet, Bahrain asks Congress for help in restoring arms sales, Al-Monitor, 25 March, 2015 Aaron David Miller, The Obama-Bibi TwoState Two-Step, Foreign Policy, 25 March, 2015 Jack Detsch, How Much Does India Really Need Iran?, The Diplomat, 11 March, 2015 Berivan Orucoglu, Washington and Ankara need couples therapy, Foreign Policy, 25 March, 2015 Frederic Wehrey, Into the Maelstrom: The Saudi-led Misadventure in Yemen, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 26 March, 2015 Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Martin Reardon, Yemen over the edge, Aljazeera, 26 March, 2015 Page 23 Kabir Taneja, Why India stands against a nuclear Iran, DNA, 25 March, 2015 Linda S. Heard, Arabs in a ‘decisive’ mood, Arab News, 31 March, 2015 Adam Taylor, Saudi Arabia’s hostile relationship with Russia is leaving Egypt stuck in the middle, The Washington Post, 30 March, 2015 Yoel Guzansky, Whatever Iran gets in nuclear talks, Saudi Arabia wants, The Jerusalem Post, 30 March, 2015 Ankit Panda, How Will Pakistan Respond to the Crisis in Yemen?, The Diplomat, 30 March, 2015 John Bell, The greater reality for Iran and Saudi Arabia, Aljazeera, 30 March, 2015 E.J. Dionne Jr, How to read the Iran debate, The Washington Post, 5 April, 2015 Mohammed Adow, Why al-Shabab has gained foothold in Kenya, Aljazeera, 5 April, 2015 EDITORS Kanchi Gupta Sikandar Azam Volume I, Issue VIII - April 2015 Page 24
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