Savills Research New South Wales Spotlight Parramatta Office April 2015 Highlights The latest PCA numbers show vacancy decreased Negative net absorption of 7,236 square metres was Indicative A Grade yields currently range from 6.75% slightly to 6.3% in the six months to December 2014 Savills has recorded approximately $703 million worth of office transactions in the 12 months to March 2015 Approximately 29,853 square metres of office accommodation was leased in Parramatta in the 12 months to March 2015 recorded in the 12 months to December 2014 to 7.50% as at March 2015 Average A Grade net face rents in Parramatta are currently $405 per square metre per annum, up 6% over the last 12 months Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Savills New South Wales Team Research Managing Director Divisional Director Simon Hemphill +61 (0) 2 8215 8892 [email protected] Managing Director Simon Fenn +61 (0) 2 8215 8830 [email protected] Office Leasing Divisional Director Simon van Grootel +61 (0) 2 8215 8826 [email protected] Valuation & Consultancy Divisional Director Russell Nicolson +61 (0) 2 8215 8987 [email protected] Corporate Real Estate Divisional Director John Mackenzie +61 (0) 2 8215 8982 [email protected] Associate Director Nick Lau +61 (0) 2 8215 8818 [email protected] Investment Sales Divisional Director Michael Brislane +61 (0) 2 8215 8924 [email protected] Project Management General Manager David Nicholas +61 (0) 2 8913 4813 [email protected] Savills New South Wales Level 7, 50 Bridge Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia +61 (0) 2 8215 8888 savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 2 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Introduction Parramatta is located in Greater Western Sydney 23 kilometres west of the Sydney CBD on the banks of the Parramatta River. Parramatta is the administrative seat of the Local Government Area (LGA) of the City of Parramatta. Parramatta CBD is the fifth largest suburban office centre in Australia with 680,317 square metres of stock as at December 2014. In quality terms, approximately 40 percent of office stock is A Grade, with B, C and D Grade space comprising approximately 60 percent of the market. Since 2000, Parramatta has seen the consolidation of its role as a Government centre, with the relocation of agencies such as the New South Wales Police Headquarters and the Sydney Water Corporation from Sydney CBD. At the same time, major construction work occurred around the railway station with the expansion of Westfield Shoppingtown and the creation of a new transport interchange. Parramatta is preparing to transform once again with the long awaited Parramatta Square redevelopment, formally known as Civic Place. The proposed $2 billion development will convert a three hectare inner city block of Council-owned and private properties into a new stylish suburban city. The first stages of Parramatta City Council’s landmark development is a step closer to being realised after the City’s Councillors voted to initiate the first development site at 169 Macquarie Street by appointing Leighton Properties as the developer. Office Development Savills, incorporating the latest Property Council of Australia (PCA) numbers, is currently tracking approximately 140,000 square metres of new and refurbished stock in the supply pipeline in Parramatta, most of which is awaiting precommitment prior to commencing construction. As such, much of this future supply is considered long-term planning, with earliest completion expected to be in the fourth quarter of 2016. Parramatta Council owns a number of development sites in the Parramatta CBD, totalling approximately eight hectares of land. One of which, stage one of the Parramatta Square project, has commenced with the redevelopment of 169 Macquarie Street, known as One Parramatta Square or 1PSQ. Located at the eastern boundary of the site, north of the existing Sydney Water building. Once complete the building will offer over 24,200 square metres of net lettable area across 14 commercial floors, plus ground level retail space. The University of Western Sydney recently committed to the site and they plan to build a new student campus facility that will be home to an estimated 10,000 students. Construction work is expected to begin in early 2015 and be completed for the first university semester in 2017. Current Parramatta Office Development Activity Property Precinct Status 460 Church Street NLA (sq m) Type 1,003 Refurbishment City North Site Works Completion 2015 1-3 Fitzwilliam Street 9,785 Refurbishment City South DA Applied 2015 20-22 Macquarie Street 1,518 Refurbishment City West Construction 2015 169 Macquarie Street 24,500 New Mid City Construction 2016 153 Macquarie Street 25,000 New Mid City DA Applied 2017+ 83 George Street 10,000 New Mid City DA Approved Mooted 87-89 George Street 11,517 New Mid City DA Approved Mooted 105 Phillip Street 20,388 New Mid City DA Approved Mooted 159-175 Church Street 35,000 New City South DA Approved Mooted Major Tenant(s) UWS Source: PCA / Savills Research savills.com.au/research 3 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Leasing Activity In the 12 months to March 2015, Savills identified 29,853 square metres of leases in the Parramatta market. This is nearly double on the 12 months prior, and up on the five year average (24,085 square metres). Select Parramatta Office Leases to March 2015 Date Property May-14 426 Church St, Parramatta 815 305 N Community Connections May-14 110 George St, Parramatta 528 335 N Government Property NSW Jun-14 2-10 Wentworth St, Parramatta 960 498 G NSW Government Aug-14 169 Macquarie St, Parramatta 24,500 na University of Western Sydney Sep-14 91 Phillip St, Parramatta 940 na KPMG Oct-14 2-10 Wentworth St, Parramatta 610 488 G Source: Savills Research NLA (sq m) Rent ($/sq m) Tenant United Church in Australia Property na = not currently available *Sublease **Renewal ***Prelease Negative net absorption of 7,236 square metres was recorded in the Parramatta market in the 12 months to December 2014. A removal of approximately 5,561 square metres of occupied stock was recorded over the same period, coupled with an increase of 1,675 square metres of vacant space. A Grade recorded negative absorption of 866 square metres due to increased available space according to the latest PCA Office Market Report. However, the development of 169 Macquarie Street (fully committed to UWS) should see the Parramatta office market recorded positive absorption in the last quarter of 2016. Sydney Office Parramatta Net Absorption (sq m) Dec-04 to Dec-14 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 Total Absorption (sq m) Source: PCA / Savills Research Linear (Total Absorption (sq m)) Net face rents in Parramatta as at March 2015 typically range between $360 and $450 per square metre per annum for A Grade buildings, and between $275 and $350 per square metre per annum for secondary grade buildings. The average A Grade face rent in Parramatta $405 per square metre per annum, a 6 percent increase over the last 12 months. savills.com.au/research 4 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Undisclosed Sydney Office 0% IT & Total Reported Leased in Parramatta (%) Communication 12 months to Mar-15 0% Recreational Services Finance and 0% Insurance Mining & Utilities & 0% Industry W'Sale, 0% Retail 0% Govt & Community 95% Property & Business Services 5% Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research Of the 38,453 square metres leased in the Parramatta office market in the last 12 months, 'Government & Community' was the dominant sector, accounting for 95 percent of the stock, or 28,303 square metres. Similarly, the largest number of transactions was through the 'Govt & Community' sector (4 transactions). It is worth noting that the majority of the ‘Govt & Community’ leasing activity was due the 26,000 square metre precommitment of UWS to 169 Macquarie Street. Vacancy According to the latest PCA figures, the current composition of the market is as follows: Parramatta Vacancy Rates – December 2014 Grade Stock (sq m) Vacancy (sq m) Vac % Dec-14 Vac % Dec-13 A Grade 273,617 2,316 0.8 0.5 B Grade 211,023 18,418 8.7 6.5 C Grade 104,972 19,726 18.8 18.8 D Grade 90,705 2,466 2.7 6.6 Total 680,317 42,926 6.3 6.0 Source: PCA / Savills Research The latest PCA Office Market Report shows that the overall vacancy rate in Parramatta increased by 0.3 percentage points over the 12 months to December 2014 and currently sits at 6.3 percent. Parramatta vacancy has experienced a downward trend since June 2010, where vacancy reached a cyclical high of 10.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, A Grade vacancy in Parramatta rose marginally by 0.3 percentage points to a low 0.8 percent (2,316 square metres). This reflects an increase of approximately 866 square metres of available space over the period. B Grade vacancy in Parramatta recorded an increase from 6.5 percent to 8.7 percent over the last 12 months. With no new office supply expected in Parramatta until the fourth quarter of 2016, coupled with limited A Grade offerings in the market, strong demand in the precommitment market is expected, as well as a tangible benefit to the secondary market in the short-term. With strong rental growth and practically zero A Grade vacancy, the Parramatta office market is one of the best performing markets in Sydney, and arguably the best performing suburban market in Australia. savills.com.au/research 5 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Sydney Office Parramatta Vacancy by Grade (%) Dec-04 to Dec-14 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Prime Vacancy Secondary Vacancy Total Vacancy Source: PCA / Savills Research Sales Activity Savills have recorded approximately $703 million worth of office transactions in the 12 months to March 2015 in the Parramatta CBD, a record amount for the market. This is up from $245 million in the previous year, and up on the five year average of $270 million. The increase in investment activity over the past two years has been largely due to the transaction of many of Parramatta’s prime buildings, as vendors seek to take advantage of sharpening yields and improved investment demand from local and foreign investors. Sydney Office Parramatta Office Sales ($m and number) (>$5m) Mar-05 to Mar-15 $800 16 $700 14 $600 12 $500 10 $400 8 $300 6 $200 4 $100 2 $0 0 Sales > $5m (LHS) Sales No (RHS) Source: Savills Research In December, the NSW Government sold the Justice Precinct Offices at 160 Marsden Street and the former Blood Bank building at 4 George Street for approximately $170.1 million to Eureka Funds Management. The buildings were offered with 12 year leases to Government tenants. savills.com.au/research 6 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Select Parramatta Office Sales to March 2015 Price ($m) NLA (sq m) Price $/sq m Yield (%) 1 Charles St, Parramatta 241.12 32,735 7,366 7.52 Aug-14 1-3 Fitzwilliam St, Parramatta 29.00 9,782 2,965 VP Oct-14 110 George St, Parramatta 83.00 20,970 3,958 8.50 Oct-14 153 Macquarie St, Parramatta 19.50 659 29,590 VP Nov-14 2-10 Wentworth St, Parramatta 45.05 10,941 4,118 8.00 Dec-14 160 Marsden St & 4 George St, Parramatta 170.10 21,587 7,880 na Dec-14 90 Phillip St, Parramatta 16.75 2,944 5,690 na Dec-14 169 Macquarie St, Parramatta 16.25 dev 3,249 Dev Jan-15 87 Marsden St, Parramatta 33.15 6,659 4,978 8.00% Feb-15 12-14 Wentworth St, Parramatta 5.30 1,226 4,323 VP Date Property Jun-14 Source: Savills Research * na= not yet available VP= Vacant Possession Following the sale of The Octagon at 110 George Street, Charter Hall Group announced the acquisition of 169 Macquarie Street, a development site which forms part of Stage 1 of the Parramatta Square Master Plan, for a purchase price of $16.25 million. The development will have an end value of $220.50 million which has been fully pre leased to the University of Western Sydney (UWS) for 15 years plus options. This transaction is a showcase of the growing institutional demand for new office buildings in Parramatta. Market yields in Parramatta as at March 2015 typically range from 6.75% to 7.50% for A Grade buildings. Average A Grade yields are currently 7.13%, a 75 basis point firming over the last 12 months. Savills expects market yields in Parramatta may further tighten as A Grade buildings with strong lease covenants transact in the next 12 months. Key Market Indicators – March 2015 A Grade B Grade Low High Low High Rental – Gross Face ($/sq m) 450 555 365 460 Rental – Net Face ($/sq m) 360 450 275 350 Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) 306 360 227 263 Outgoings – Operating ($/sq m) 65 70 65 75 Outgoings – Statutory ($/sq m) 25 35 25 35 Outgoings – Total ($/sq m) 90 105 90 110 Typical Lease Term (years) 5 10 3 7 Yield – Market (% Net Face Rental) 6.75 7.50 8.00 9.50 IRR (%) 8.50 9.00 9.00 10.00 Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) 250 275 200 250 Cars Permanent ($/pcm) 200 250 200 250 4,800 6,667 2,895 4,375 Office Component Capital Values ($/sq m) Source: Savills Research Rental rates reflect single, whole floor, net effective and mid-rise rental rates unless specifically otherwise stated. Discounts and premiums exist for low and high rise space and for significant occupiers. savills.com.au/research 7 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Outlook The Parramatta CBD has seen a surge of inner-city residential and commercial development in recent years. This should see strong population growth for the region and an increase of much needed A Grade supply. With the current development pipeline, the Parramatta landscape is expected to go through a significant transformation in the next 510 years. Savills expects the broader commercial property sector in Parramatta should continue to outperform, with strong rental growth and practically zero A Grade vacancy. The Parramatta office market is expected to remain one of the best performing office markets in Sydney. Over next 12 months, Savills anticipates suburban office investment activity to continue to remain strong, with Parramatta expected to maintain its recent momentum as acquisitive buyers are attracted to the market. Demand from these buyers remains strong for assets with a WALE of over 10 years to Government tenants. Savills expect further transactions in the Parramatta market over the short-term with a mandate from the NSW Government to divest of buildings in Parramatta to raise funds for a number of infrastructure projects. The next 12 months may see Private Investors and Syndicates finding it difficult to compete with the larger local funds and Foreign Investors for well positioned assets as tightening yields may price many out of the market. Parramatta average A Grade face rents grew by 6 percent in the last 12 months. Savills anticipate rents will continue to grow over the short to medium-term, driven by a distinct lack of supply and low vacancy. Parramatta has the ability to become a key centre for office development given the availability of land and continued tenant interest; however, generating tenant demand outside of Government departments remains the key to income growth in the Parramatta office market. savills.com.au/research 8 Savills Research | Parramatta Office April 2015 Savills New South Wales Team Our highly regarded research divisions are dedicated to understanding and giving indepth insight into the commercial, industrial & retail markets throughout Australia. We also provide in-depth consultancy services, ranging from tenant representation to property site selection for multinational businesses. Our research teams are highly qualified real estate professionals with comprehensive knowledge of property markets across Australia. The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals, are highly regarded and respected along with Savills Research teams across the globe. For our latest reports, contact one of the team or visit savills.com.au/research National Head of Research Tony Crabb +61 (0) 3 8686 8012 [email protected] Savills provide free research reports on all major property markets, and some example papers include: Office Markets Retail Markets Residential Trends Industrial Markets International Markets Download the Savills iPad App for insights at your fingertips This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. 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