Savills World Research Korea Briefing Seoul office sector Q1 2015 Image : CBD, Seoul SUMMARY Completion of new office buildings and the relocation of state-run corporations to outside of Seoul pushed the vacancy rate up. In Q1, the Seoul market saw overall net absorption increase to 26,760 sqm with the growth in demand coming from the CBD and YBD. The GBD experienced a demand decrease as large companies and government institutions relocated to areas outside Seoul. With the overall vacancy rate increase, the Seoul prime office market posted only a 0.7% year-on-year (YoY) increase in face rents, which is the lowest level since Q2/2002. In March 2015, the Bank of Korea (BOK) lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.75%, five months after the last interest rate cut. The removal of the acquisition tax benefit for real estate funds at the beginning of Q1/2015 caused a transaction rush in Q4/2014, which saw the market volume reduced to a quarter of the level posted in Q1/2014 and a tenth of Q4/2014. “Investment market transaction volumes were 25% of the level posted in Q1/2014, in the wake of increased vacancy and a decreased number of bluechip properties on the market, as well as the revocation of tax reductions on indirect investment.” savills.co.kr/research 01 Briefing | Seoul office sector Supply In Q1/2015, three prime office buildings: KT Gwanghwamun East, Tower 8 and Twin City were completed in the CBD. KT Gwanghwamun East is used by KT, which relocated and integrated its offices in Gangnam & Bundang. Tower 8 and Twin City are being marketed for lease and they have not had any tenants commit to contracts. Twin City is a mixed-use facility completed in March featuring a hotel, officetel (studio apartments) and office sections. It will be able to accommodate tenants from Q2 onwards as the building is currently being remodelled. Our survey indicates that there are no prime office buildings planned for completion until Janggyo District 4 is completed in Q1/2016. However, the construction of Samsung Electronics’ Woomyeon-dong R&D Center, set to be finished in Q2/2015, is expected to lead to the relocation of parts of Samsung Electronics’ business, a major tenant in the GBD. Demand and vacancy rate The relatively robust performance of the US economy translated into a strong US dollar and the US is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate in the second half of 2015. However, amid a growing trade deficit and taking into account the possibility that the strong dollar and interest rate increase will affect US economic growth, no drastic change is expected in the interest rate. Meanwhile, China has shown gradual economic expansion but the growth rate is slowing down, which has resulted in reduced exports from Korea to China. The BOK is projecting a 0.9% increase in consumer prices in 2015 due to plunging international oil prices and a reduction in public service charges; this is expected to boost real purchasing power. For 2015, the Korean economy is forecasted to expand by 3.1%, which represents a 0.3 percentage points (ppts) downward adjustment from the projection announced in January. Q1 2015 TABLE 1 Monthly rent and vacancy rate by district, Q1/2015 Average rent Average rent YoY rental Net absorption (KRW per 3.3058 (KRW per 3.3058 increase rate (%) (sq m) sq m GLA) sq m NLA) District CBD 101,000 179,900 0.9% 36,810 16.2 GBD 85,100 165,900 0.0% -65,420 11.3 YBD 78,100 160,600 1.3% 55,370 16.9 Overall Seoul Average 91,200 171,400 0.7% 26,760 14.7 Source: Savills Korea *Net absorption of Seoul prime office buildings. TABLE 2 New office supply, Q1/2015 District Building name GFA (sq m) Floors Remarks CBD KT Gwanghwamun East (Cheongjin District 1) 51,120 B6/F-25/F KT's Headquarter along with West Tower CBD Tower 8 (Cheongjin District 8) 51,798 B7/F-24/F CBD Twin City (Dongja District 8) 32,743 (Office area) B7/F~30/F (Office floors from 2/F~18/F) Office, hotel, officetel, mixed-use retail facility, 2 buildings GFA of 91,461 sq m Source: Savills Korea TABLE 3 Office building planned for supply in Q2/2015 Building Name Samsung Electronics' Woomyeon-dong R&D Center Address 167-2, Woomyeon-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul GFA (sq m) 330,000 Completion Date May 2015 Floors B5/F-10/F Remarks 6 buildings, Office GFA of appx. 33,000 sq m Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 1 Growth rate of real GDP and real exports, 2006–2016F Economic Growth (GDP, annual variance in %) 18% Export Growth (annual variance in %) 17.1% 16% 14% 13.4% 13.5% 12.4% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5.2% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4% As of February 2015, the number of employees in the financial and insurance sectors dropped 8% YoY to 782,000. While overall employment showed a steady increase, the Vacancy rate (%) 3.3% 2% 0% 3.7% 2.8% 0.4% 2006 2007 2008 0.7% 2009 2.3% 2010 2011 2012 3.0% 2013 2.3% 2014 2.9% 3.1% 2015F 3.8% 3.4% 2016F Source: Bank of Korea savills.co.kr/research 02 Briefing | Seoul office sector In Q1/2015, Seoul posted a net absorption of 26,760 sq m. By district, in the CBD, which saw new buildings completed, the net absorption was 36,810 sq m. In the YBD, where the IBM headquarters is now situated, a net area of 55,370 sq m was absorbed, indicating an increase in demand. The GBD, however, suffered a demand decrease and subsequently a negative net absorption of -65,420 sq m, as government institutions moved to areas outside of Seoul and the affiliates of conglomerates relocated their offices. GRAPH 2 The number of employees in the financial and insurance sectors, Mar 2006–Mar 2015 920 900 880 860 No. Employed ('000) number of people on the payroll of the two sectors fell to a level similar to that of 2H/2009, which was right after the start of the global financial crisis. The banking sector announced in 2015 that it would hire twice the number of recruits that were newly employed in 2014. However, the Federation of Korean Industries forecasted that recruitment by 30 major enterprises in 2015 will decline by 6.3% from the previous year (30 March, 2015, The Korea Economy Daily). Q1 2015 In the GBD, an array of departures by its tenants including the headquarters of the Korea Asset Management Corporation to Busan, Samsung Heavy Industries to Pangyo and 820 800 780 760 740 720 700 680 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Source: Korean Statistical Information Service GRAPH 3 Take-up, Q1/2015 2015 1Q New organisation 15% In all three districts, a large number of tenants relocated as their own headquarter or office buildings were completed. Overall the vacancy rate of Seoul prime office buildings rose 0.6 ppts from Q4/2014 to 14.7%. 2014 1Q - 4Q New organisation 15% Prime to prime 22% Expansion 16% Prime to prime 33% Expansion 21% Secondary to prime 47% Secondary to prime 31% Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 4 Net absorption, Q1/2008–Q1/2015 CBD 350,000 GBD YBD 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 sq m Our survey showed diverse types of demand for office buildings, with the most active tenant relocations taking place in the CBD, with large companies moving their headquarters and affiliates. SBI Savings Bank moved its headquarters to Center 1. In addition, the CBD saw a demand increase with the opening of a Seoul office by the Korea Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology (a government agency) and new leases by Lotte Members (AIA Tower) and SK Telecom (Ferrum Tower). Additionally, SK Networks and the Korea Democracy Foundation left secondary spaces for prime office buildings in the area. Meanwhile, Ssangyong Cement and Daewoo International contributed to the CBD vacancy increase as they moved to Songdo. The supply of Tower 8 also helped push up the vacancy rate in the CBD by 1.4 ppts to 16.2%. 840 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 -200,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills Korea savills.co.kr/research 03 Briefing | Seoul office sector Dongbu Steel’s headquarters to the CBD (STX Tower), resulted in a vacancy increase of 3.1 ppts to 11.3%. As Hyundai Motor Group started to house its offices in the former headquarter building of Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco). The annex of the building is used by Kepco’s TFT and the main building is occupied by affiliates of the motor company, such as Hyundai Wia and Glovis. Hyundai Motor Company group has filled approximately 45% of all the leasable office area in the former Kepco building. The YBD posted a vacancy decrease of 4.2 ppts to 16.9%, with the relocation of IBM’s headquarters to Three IFC and an affiliate of Toray Group to FKI Tower. As for the vacancy rates of recently supplied Q1 2015 prime office buildings, One IFC has no vacancy and Two IFC recorded an approximately 10% vacancy rate, while Three IFC is showing an 80% vacancy rate and FKI 20%. As vacant offices filled up, the vacancy rate in Yeouido fell by approximately 7.9 ppts in three quarters. Large companies were the major contributors to the absorption of vacancy in Q1/2015. IBM and Toray Group moved to prime office buildings. Tenants relocating from secondary buildings accounted for the biggest proportion (47%) of overall take-up in Q1/2015. Relocations from prime to prime offices were mainly led by management policy and the strategies of large companies. In the CBD, Hyundai Group moved from The K Twin Towers to master-lease Twin Trees. In the GBD, Hyundai Motors Group, in order to protect surrounding retail areas, moved into the Kepco building in Samseong-dong, where its integrated office building will be established. There were cases of leasing by newly created organisations such as SK Telecom, which opened new organisations both in the CBD and the GBD. Savills survey indicates that office expansion was executed mostly by affiliates of large companies. Outlook Some of the headquarters of large companies housed in the CBD have plans to relocate in Q2. LG U Plus will vacate its office in LG U Plus Tower to its own newly built office building in Yongsan. Moreover, it is reported that in Q2 the remodeling of Twin City TABLE 4 Major tenant relocations, Q1/2015 District Previous building Area (sq m) Tenant District Current Building Yonsei Building 16,040 Daewoo International non-core NEATT Pine Avenue B 14,450 Ssangyong affiliates non-core City Center The-K Twin Towers 9,520 Hyundai E&C CBD Twin Tree Seoul Square 3,620 LG CNS YBD FKI Tower Daerung Gangnam Tower 11,260 Hyundai Glovis GBD Former Kepco Headquarter Dongbu Financial Center 4,140 Dongbu Steel CBD STX Tower Area (sq m) CBD GBD 16,650 Samsung Heavy Industries non-core Samsung Heavy Industries Pangyo R&D Center ASEM Tower 12,290 KAMCO (Korea Asset Management Corporation) non-core BIFC CBD Seoul Finance Center (SFC) 2,380 UBS GBD & Bundang Dongik Seongbong Building, Nara Building, Bundang HQ KT Affiliates KT Gwanghwamun East 51,120 The-K Twin Towers Hyundai E&C TFT Twin Tree 10,250 Standard Chartered Bank Building Hyundai E&C TFT Twin Tree 3,030 Baejae Jeongdong Building Korea Democracy Foundations Twin Tree 2,390 Samsung SDS Samsung Life Insurance Taepyeongno Building 4,400 NC Tower 1 3,900 Former Kepco Headquarter 20,050 YBD FKI Tower 10,730 CBD Samsung Life Insurance Seocho Tower N/A Grace Tower Downsizing CBD GBD Daechi dong Jeonghyun Building GBD & non-core Louis Castel Daerung Gangnam Tower and others N/A LG Mapo + Namsan Square non-core Hyundai Wia, Hyundai Special Steel, Hyundai Glovis Toray Advanced Materials Korea, Toya International GBD SBI Saving Bank Building SBI Saving Bank CBD Center 1 8,380 Military Mutual Aid Association IBM YBD Three IFC 29,420 New Organisation Lotte Members CBD AIA Tower 3,440 New Organisation LG Chem YBD FKI Tower 3,670 New Organisation SK Telecom GBD Golden Tower 3,540 New Organisation SK Telecom CBD Ferrum Tower 5,070 non-core Source: Savills Korea savills.co.kr/research 04 Briefing | Seoul office sector will be completed and the building will be available to the market, which is projected to lead to a vacancy increase of 2~3 ppts in the CBD. Q1 2015 GRAPH 5 Seoul prime office vacancy rate, Q1/2002–Q1/2015 CBD GBD GBD (excluding Kepco) YBD 30% Rent rates In Q1/2015, a total of 10 office buildings raised rents (six in the CBD, three in the GBD and one in the YBD). However, there were some buildings that lowered rents amid expanding vacancy: one in the CBD and three in the GBD. Due to large companies moving to their own office buildings and government institutions relocating to areas outside Seoul, vacancy rates of office buildings for lease rose. As a result, higher tenant improvement allowances are being provided to tenants so effective rents have dropped. Our survey shows that there are some office buildings that also lowered asking rents at the marketing phase. The rent increase in the GBD was 0.0% while the CBD and the YBD recorded a 0.9% and 1.3% increase respectively. With the CPI falling below the 1% level, the maintenance fee increase rate dropped to 1%~1.6% in all three major office districts. Outlook In 2015 the prime office rent increase rate will be affected by growing vacancy and a declining CPI. In Q2, the rent increase rate of prime office buildings is likely to remain at a level similar to that of the previous quarter. 20% 15% Including Kepco 11.3% Excluding Kepco 10.2% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 6 Seoul prime office rental indices, Q1/2000–Q1/2015 CBD GBD YBD 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 In Q2, the vacancy rate in the YBD is likely to remain at a level similar to that of Q1 but when the company, which is currently in negotiations with Three IFC moves in, the vacancy rate of the district will further decrease by 1~1.5 ppts. 25% Q1/2001 = 100 In the GBD, with some large companies also planning to move out, the vacancy rate is expected to climb further. The organisations of Samsung Electronics housed in the company’s own office building in Seocho are to leave their current offices for the Samsung Electronics R&D Center in Woomyeon-dong, which is slated for completion in May 2015. In turn, Samsung Electronics’ organisations currently leasing in Hanwha Life Insurance building are expected to fill the space to be vacated in the Samsung Electronics Seocho office building. SK Hynix is to relocate to SK U-Tower in Bundang and, as a result, the GBD is projected to see its vacancy rate go up by 2 ppts. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 7 YoY rental increase rate by district, Q1/2008–Q1/2015 CBD 9% GBD YBD CPI growth rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea savills.co.kr/research 05 Briefing | Seoul office sector Q3 Q4 4 3 2 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 9 Prime office building cap rate trends, Q1/2005–Q1/2015 Spread (RHS) Cap rate (LHS) Five-year treasury bond yield (LHS) 900 8% 800 7% 700 6% 600 5% 500 4% 400 3% 300 2% 200 1% 100 0% 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 9% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea GRAPH 10 Five-year treasury bond yield and benchmark interest rate trends, Jan 2012–Apr 2015 Five-year treasury bond yield Benchmark rate 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2015/04/14 2015/02/25 2015/01/05 2014/11/18 2014/10/02 2014/08/11 2014/06/24 2014/04/30 2014/03/13 2014/01/22 2013/12/03 2013/10/16 2013/08/22 2013/07/03 2013/05/14 2013/03/26 2013/02/04 2012/12/13 2012/10/28 2012/09/06 1.8% 2012/07/19 2.0% 2012/05/31 BOK lowered the benchmark interest rate 25 bps from 2.0% to 1.75% in March 2015. It is believed that the BOK’s decision is attributable to low upward pressure on prices due to the downward trends in raw material and oil prices, along with the downward adjustment of the economic growth rate. Even though effective rents are on the decrease as the vacancy rate rises, the cap rates of prime office buildings will remain in the low 5% Q2 5 2012/04/10 As of Q1/2015, it is known that transactions are underway for Citi Bank in the CBD; Dohwa Engineering Building in the GBD; the building of Small and Medium Business Corporation (SBC) in the YBD; and Seobu Finance Center in Guro. Citibank is reported to have chosen Mastern Investment Management as a preferred negotiator and the sale process is targeted for completion in June 2015. Q1 6 2012/02/21 City Center changed hands from the Ssangyong Town PFV to Igis Asset Management for KRW202.5 billion (KRW18.3 million per 3.3058 sq m). The building was used as Ssangyong’s office building from 1969 until the remodeling that started in 2013. After the remodeling was completed in November 2014, the building’s rent rose by approximately 50% to KRW89,000. With major tenants including Ssangyong’s affiliates and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, 75% of the office area was leased out before completion of the remodeling. Assuming stabilisation of the building operation (95%), the building is estimated to generate profits in the 6% range but currently the initial profit rate is known to be in the high 4% range. The investors in the building are AEW Capital and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance. AEW is a global real estate investment company and City Center marks their first investment in Korea. Seoul office transaction volumes, Q1/2007–Q1/2015 2012/01/02 In Q1/2015, two transactions were concluded for major office buildings: Ssangyong Cement Industrial’s office building City Center and Hana Daetoo’s office building in Yeongdeungpo. The total value of transactions executed in Q1 reached only a quarter of the amount posted for Q1/2014. Such a decline is believed to be attributable to a rush of transactions completed in Q4/2014 before the acquisition tax cut was revoked at the end the year. GRAPH 8 KRW (trillion) Transactions and Investment market Q1 2015 Source: Bank of Korea savills.co.kr/research 06 Briefing | Seoul office sector range. This is due to the abundant liquidity that has resulted from low interest rates, and has translated into the spreads between five-year government bonds and the average cap rate climbing for three quarters in a row. Amid such market conditions, the top 10 domestic pension funds, including the National Pension Service, announced that they will expand the Q1 2015 proportion of alternative investments in their portfolio. In particular, with the ultra-low interest rates for bonds, pension funds are known to be diversifying their investments to achieve target profit levels. The Korean Teachers’ Credit Union and the Korean Teachers’ Pension announced that they will place more focus on opportunistic funds, namely investment products seeking high profits and value-add investments, which pursue value appreciation through additional development after investment. The Public Officials Employee Pension is also taking a great interest in investment in high-yield properties and the Public Officials Benefit Association is expected to see the proportion of alternative investments exceed 50% of its entire investment volume this year for the first time. TABLE 5 Major investment transactions, Q1/2015 District Property Seller Buyer Transacted area (sq m) Transaction price (KRW bil) CBD City Center Ssangyong Town PFV Igis Asset Management 36,573 202.5 Non-core Hana Daetoo’s office building in Yeongdeungpo Hana Daetoo Securities Samgyeong BM Korea 5,076 18.4 Source: Savills Korea Please contact us for further information Savills Korea Savills Research K.D. Jeon Head of Korea Korea +82 2 2124 4101 [email protected] Youngtaek Kim Vice President Korea +82 2 2124 4208 [email protected] Hyosung Kim Senior Director Korea +82 2 2124 4204 [email protected] Sue Lee Director Tenant Rep. +82 2 2124 4180 [email protected] Grace Ko Director CRES Leasing Service +82 2 2124 4115 [email protected] Seunghan Lee Director, Leasing & Marketing, Development Sales +82 2 2124 4253 [email protected] Crystal Lee Senior Director Investment Advisory +82 2 2124 4163 [email protected] JoAnn Hong Director Korea +82 2 2124 4182 [email protected] Simon Smith Senior Director Asia Pacific +852 2842 4573 [email protected] Savills plc Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. 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The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.co.kr/research 07 Briefing | Seoul office sector Q1 2015 Appendix Overview of the Seoul office market and Savills Korea office survey TABLE 6 Summary of surveyed buildings, Mar 2015 A B CBD GBD YBD Total Number of buildings 24 14 8 46 Average GFA (sq m) 81,875 96,231 103,691 90,038 Average year of completion 2003 1999 2002 2002 Number of buildings 20 19 10 49 Average GFA (sq m) 53,196 42,824 49,218 48,363 Average year of completion 1999 1999 1996 1999 Total number of buildings 44 33 18 95 Total area (sq m) 3,028,914 2,160,895 1,321,707 6,511,516 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy Close to 66% of large office buildings (30,000 sq m or more) in Seoul are located in three major business districts – the CBD (32.5%), GBD (20.0%) and YBD (13.9%). The CBD is the largest of these districts and is home to major government and multinational institutions. The GBD also houses many multinational companies and is an information technology centre, while YBD, the "Wall Street" of South Korea, includes the headquarters of major securities firms and broadcasting companies. The Savills Korea Quarterly Office survey is the longest running survey of prime office stock in Seoul. Established in 1997, it currently comprises 95 of the 121 buildings in Seoul classified as "prime" buildings. Prime buildings: Buildings with a GFA greater than 30,000 sq m with good accessibility and facilities, a high level of finish, and creditworthy bluechip tenants. Monthly rent: Surveyed rents are "face rents", the asking rents reported by landlords for mid-level floors. These rents are standardised by Savills Korea to account for variations in the security deposits required by different landlords to produce an effective rental figure for NLA. Cap rate calculation method Cap rate: (income from interest on security deposit (5%) + face rent of a standard floor + residual income from maintenance fee) × occupancy rate (95%) × 12 / transaction amount For comparison of cap rates of each transaction case, a 5% interest rate on security deposit and 95% occupancy rate were uniformly applied. savills.co.kr/research 08
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