JEREMY KERR
University of Ottawa
http://www.macroecology.ca
INTACT WILDERNESS ASSISTS SPECIES’
RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
@JeTKerr
Human impacts on habitat and climate
 
Welcome to the Anthropocene!  
We live in a world where resource extraction benefits are private but costs are public.
 
Québec’s boreal is one of the few places left with intact wilderness and accompanying
ecosystem services. @JeTKerr
Human impacts on habitat and climate
•  Habitat losses endangers Canadian
biodiversity in every region where it is
extensive.
•  Endangerment rates across Quebec’s
boreal remain low, but are high in
adjacent areas.
Kerr & Deguise. Ecology Letters.
@JeTKerr
Human impacts on habitat and climate
•  Climatic conditions, like winter cold, limit
species’ geographical ranges in the north.
•  Warming allows species to expand their
ranges, if habitat conditions allow. Failure to
track shifting climates = climate debt.
•  Example: bog copper butterfly. Highest
measured range shift rates on Earth (~30km/
year).
@JeTKerr
Human impacts on habitat and climate
•  Wilderness in the boreal may
represent one of the last areas
where rapid movement of species
is possible because there are so
few barriers imposed by human
activities.
@JeTKerr
Human impacts on habitat and climate
•  We set out to test this proposition.
•  Butterfly species are known to be strong
indicators for other groups of species.
Relative to baseline conditions, are
butterfly species tracking climate change,
and what limits their ability to do so?
@JeTKerr
BIODIVERSITY CHANGE
Human footprint in Canada, showing
deviation in productivity from expectations
•  Obstacles to studying such
questions are huge:
•  Measurements of human impacts
on habitat relative to baseline
conditions were needed!
•  Citizen science programs, like
e-Butterfly.ca (uOttawa and
Montreal Insectarium) and
BumblebeeWatch.or) permit
tracking of species over huge
areas and through time.
@JeTKerr
BIODIVERSITY CHANGE
Red to Blue =
High to low
butterfly species
richness
Red to Blue = Increasing to decreasing
butterfly species richness in the past century
•  1901-1974
•  1985-2010
•  Statistical modelling shows that butterfly
species can handle some habitat changes,
or climate change, but NOT BOTH.
BIODIVERSITY CHANGE
•  Loss of natural habitats makes it hard for pollinators like
butterflies to make it through increasingly hot summers.
•  Butterflies are indicators of impacts on other species. Their role
as pollinators means that losses of species due to climate change
and habitat loss may have impacts on pollination services.
•  Continued efforts to conserve wilderness areas may provide
habitat refugia for species to reduce negative climate change
impacts.
@JeTKerr
BIODIVERSITY CHANGE
•  Large wilderness areas in Québec’s boreal provide unique
ecological benefits for Quebeckers.
•  Intact wilderness reduces impacts of climate change on
biodiversity and ecosystem services.
•  Plan Nord’s goal of securing >50% wilderness is critical.
Keeping vital ecosystem services intact is cheaper and
vastly more effective than restoration.
@JeTKerr
•  Thank You.