CONSUMER CATEGORY REPORT
MARCH 2015
CHANNELS USED PER MONTH ON AVERAGE
Shopper Backdrop
Source: IGD ShopperVista
Consumer Topics
• Consumer confidence has remained stable for the past several months
as the British economy continues its steady recovery. Confidence in
personal household finances has crept up as key components of
household expenditure, particularly food and petrol, have fallen.
Shoppers have added more items to their baskets in response to lower
food prices over recent months and this has led to improved volume
growth in the GB grocery market. However, they are still price
conscious and demand is expected to remain muted
• The discounters (Aldi and Lidl) account for 7.2% of the total grocery
market, their influence has gathered pace over the past year in
particular. Consumer loyalty to one store has been waning over time,
with shoppers on average using four channels a month. Key reasons
for this include trying to fit within household budgets or for
convenience. This rise of multichannel shopping has added a new
dimension to the retailer battle ground
• In 2014, the holiday season saw more people shopping online than
ever before. Consequently, 49% of the value growth this Christmas
came from the Online channel. For Meat and Poultry, this contributed to
an increase in volumes, although value remained fairly static.
3+ channels
4+ channels
5+ channels
82%
34%
58%
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX • DATA TO DECEMBER 2014
Source: European Commission/nVision
FRESH MEAT 52 WEEKS TO 1 FEBRUARY 2015
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
Key Category Overview
1,893
-1.0
856
-5.0
603
-3.5
Chicken
0.9
169,821
-0.3
70,807
-7.2
271,314
0.5
Pork
Lamb
2,140
426,396
3.6
Beef
Value (£000’s)
• Volume purchases were down for pork and lamb and have increased
marginally for chicken and beef, new buyers have been attracted into
the beef category boosting volume and value
• The fall in pork expenditure was driven by a fall in average price of
almost 5%
• While beef remains the most popular form of mince, pork is making
steady ground in this cut choice, volume sales increased by over 20%
year-on-year to February 2015.
Volume (Tonnes)
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
Wider Category Movement
• Chilled main meal accompaniments (CMMA) had previously
been losing volumes as existing shoppers bought less. However,
consumers have recently been switching into this category from
a number of others, including chilled and frozen ready meals
• Fresh burgers & grills continue to lead wider category growth.
Despite higher average prices and fewer barbeque occasions
over the summer, burgers remained popular.
52 w/e 1 Feb 2015
Value (£m)
Value % (+ -)
Chilled Ready Meals
1,467
6.2
Frozen Ready Meals
432
-0.5
Chilled Main Meal Accomps
Fresh Burgers & Grills
1,186
7.1
303
12.8
Frozen Burgers & Grills
207
13.4
Red Meat Ready to Cook
106
-21.7
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
SHARE OF FRESH
MEAT
12 w/e 1 Feb 2015
TOTAL MARKET
Fresh Beef
Fresh Lamb
%
value
%
value
Total Fresh
Meat and
Poultry
MAT
RST
MAT
share
100
100
100
MAT
share
change
MAT
share
change
0.2
64.8
-5.7
68.6
-9.9
61.9
-4.6
1.2
42.8
0.5
-1.6
0.6
-1.9
0.8
-40.0
0.5
-27.9
5.4
23.2
11.8
25.9
1.8
64.9
Total Independents &
Symbols
1.1
0.6
0.5
38.3
0.7
-20.4
8.3
25.9
Total Butchers
Market Stalls
All Other Outlets
Total Hard Discounters
0.7
0.3
1.7
7.2
8.3
0.6
1.9
9.2
14.3
9.4
1.9
%
value
change
64.0
15.2
Fresh Chicken
MAT
share
64.8
17.0
%
value
change
Top 4 Multiples
Other Multiples
Fresh Pork
-0.8
100
11.9
-4.9
13.7
54.1
2.1
-4.0
-4.2
-2.2
5.0
100
-10.6
10.6
-17.8
8.4
-17.9
0.7
-41.5
9.4
6.3
1.8
-8.5
100
18.2
4.9
2.0
-3.3
-9.8
-9.2
-7.9
Grocery Retailer Overview
Retail Update
• The discounters have been taking market share from
the other retailers, having raised their combined
market share of total fresh meat and poultry to 9.2%,
from 7.3% a year ago. This growth is ahead of the total
grocery trend
• Purchases of all red meats were down at the Butchers
in the latest 12 weeks. In the Christmas period,
Butchers performed behind the market for the first time
since 2011.
Grey indicates low sample size
www.bpex.org.uk • www.lovepork.co.uk • www.AHDB.org.uk
BPEX CONSUMER CATEGORY REPORT • MARCH 2015
UK Market Snapshot
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
Fresh Pork Update
KPI Movement
• Expenditure on fresh pork is down due mainly to lower average
prices compared to last year, a trend that was seen for much of
2014. Annually, the amount of fresh pork purchased was flat,
however, in the latest 12 weeks, volume purchases were down
despite lower prices, as sales were impacted by a poorer
Christmas performance compared to 2013. Fresh turkey and beef
were the clear winners. The amount spent on pork was down,
driven by a decline in pork roasting joints, as less people bought
them, less often and at lower prices.
Key Movement by Cuts
• Pork chops/steaks and loin roasting saw a decline in the amount
being purchased. While loin struggled, other cheaper pork
roasting joints, namely shoulder, performed better no doubt helped
by all the media coverage and increasing availability of pulled
Fresh Pork: 12 weeks ending 1 Feb 2015
Actual
Year-on-year % change
Spend (£000)
191,737
-10.6
Volume (000kg)
39,613
-3.6
4.84
-7.2
Penetration (%)
52
-3.9
Frequency
3.1
-2.4
Volume per Buyer (kg)
0.9
1.7
Average Price (£) (kg)
pork as a dish. Pork mince, while still only some 5% of fresh pork
sales, has performed strongly no doubt helped by its price position
versus beef and lamb mince but also by featuring more in gondola
end Y for £X promotions such as 2 for £7 or 3 for £10.
FRESH PORK VOLUME PURCHASES DEMOG % OF TOTAL DEMOG
52 WEEKS TO 1 FEBRUARY 2015
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
Pork Shopping Profile
Understanding the beef shopper profile
• When looking at the share of volume purchases across
the age groups pork, lends itself towards households
with an older profile namely 55+ (accounting for 49% of
purchases). However, the profile within the cuts does
differ. Roasting joints, with the exception of shoulder,
index even more heavily with older consumers, while
mince over-indexes with younger consumers. Mince also
over-indexes with larger households of 3 members or
more
• Looking at volume purchases of fresh pork by life-stage,
then retired households which account for the largest
share of total fresh pork purchases at 27% saw the
biggest volume declines year on year. However, these
losses were offset by pre and young family households.
CUISINE PERFORMANCE
Pork: In-home Useage Viewpoint
Source: KANTAR Useage
Cuisine Size (m)
(52 w/e Dec ‘14)
52 w/e Dec ’14
vs. 52 w/e Dec ‘13
(Actual Change)
52 w/e Dec ’14
vs. 52 w/e Dec ‘13
(% Change)
• The growing popularity of ethnic cuisines such as Indian
and Mexican is showing no signs of abating, British dishes
such as the traditional roast continue to suffer. The growth
of international dishes naturally presents an ideal
opportunity for dishes such as pulled pork, which research
has shown, does resonate with BPEX’s target market
• According to the latest Kantar Useage data, the number of
in-home/carried out roast dinner occasions fell by 5%, with
the decline of roast pork being exactly the same. The
decline is driven by the fall at the main teatime/evening
meal occasion as, at lunchtime, the number is actually up
• Convenience remains the order of the day for time poor
households, with the average meal now at 32 minutes
which is almost half the time taken in 1980. One of the
challenges for pork is that it over-indexes versus other
proteins in terms of the planned meal occasion which is
more time-consuming
• There is a shift away from steaks & leg joints towards
roasting joints, namely shoulder and mince
• Teatime/evening meals remain by far the key consumption
period for pork, however, it is here where it’s coming under
most pressure
• In terms of absolute number of occasions, pork chops/
steaks are driving the biggest declines, followed by roast
occasions.
www.bpex.org.uk • www.lovepork.co.uk • www.AHDB.org.uk
BPEX CONSUMER CATEGORY REPORT • MARCH 2015
UK Market Analysis
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
SAUSAGES
Source: KANTARWorldpanel
12 WEEKS TO 1 FEBRUARY 2015
• The recent positive performance of premium sausages is notable, a strong
volume uplift of 6.9% has emerged from the latest sausage numbers
• Easing financial conditions may mean that consumers, in increasing
numbers, now consider premium sausages an affordable treat
• Discounters grew sausage sales ahead of the market. The big four multiples
saw volume and value decline in this time period
• Butchers had a strong Christmas and, despite losing share, remain the
leading sausage sales outlet, by value, after the big 4 supermarkets
• More sausages were sold as part of a promotion in the last 12 weeks
compared to last year.
SWITCHING SUMMARY
Fresh Premium
Total Sausage Sales
£186,836,000
- 1.9%
- 1.5%
Volume Sold
43,125 tonnes
Average Price
£4.33 kg
Premium Sausages
Sales
£74,263,000
+ 6.9%
Premium Sausages
Volume Sold
14,273 tonnes
- 0.4%
+ 2.5%
Premium Sausages
Average Price
£5.20kg
- 4.1%
In Growth
In Decline
Frozen Standard
Loose Standard
% VOLUME SAUSAGES SOLD ON PROMOTION
Width indicates importance of switch
Size of bubble represents total net switching
Fresh Standard
% SALES CHANGE
+8.0%
Hard Discounters
+15.3%
-1.7%
-3.0%
Butchers Shops
Volume
-1.3%
-2.1%
Top 4 Multiples
HAM
Total Ham Sales
£252,640,000
- 3.5%
- 1.5%
Value
Average Price
£8.97 kg
Volume Sold
28,157 tonnes
- 2.0%
% SALES CHANGE
+27.0%
Hard Discounters
Top 4 Multiples
+19.2%
-2.4%
Volume
-3.9%
Value
12 WEEKS TO 1 FEBRUARY 2015 Source: KANTARWorldpanel
• The decline in total expenditure is due to modest dips in
average retail price and volume sold. The price drop is
approximately in line with grocery inflation in this time
period
• Discounter supermarkets have made impressive ham value
and volume gains, mainly from the big 4 multiples. In
context though, the discounters have increased volume by
around 780 tonnes and, combined, the big 4 multiples
2.4% volume decline equals 495 tonnes
• Standard ham sales have increased year on year since
2011. Trading up to premium ham is difficult because of
the price difference
• It is likely that standard ham will hold its position as
market leader unless the average price gap narrows.
STANDARD HAM SHARE BY VOLUME
£9.66/kg
Standard Ham
£17.49/kg
Premium Ham
Year to Feb ’11
Year to Feb ‘12
Year to Feb ‘13
Year to Feb ‘14
Year to Feb ‘15
www.bpex.org.uk • www.lovepork.co.uk • www.AHDB.org.uk
BPEX CONSUMER CATEGORY REPORT • MARCH 2015
UK Market Analysis
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
BACON
Source: KANTARWorldpanel
12 WEEKS TO 1 FEBRUARY 2015
• Total bacon sales have remained stable, premium bacon sales have
risen by 40% since last year and by 79% compared to 2011
• Premium bacon sales did not drop off quickly after Christmas, as it
has done in previous years
• Premium bacon is often included in deals and promotions
• Private label bacon consolidated its position as leader in the latest
quarter, at the expense of branded. In some supermarkets, 98% of
bacon sales are through their own private label.
- 0.4%
+0.2%
Volume Sold
60,373 tonnes
Total Bacon Sales
£367,728,000
Average Price
£6.09 kg
- 0.5%
BACON VOLUME SOLD AS PART OF A PROMOTION (TONNES)
PREMIUM BACON SALES VOLUME (TONNES)
BACON SALES • BRANDED VS PRIVATE LABEL (TONNES)
PREMIUM BACON SALES VOLUME (TONNES)
Source: BPEX/AHDB
DAPP to EU Specification
(DAPP = Deadweight Average Pig Price)
Pence / kilo
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
Jan
Feb
Mar
DAPP 2012
Apr
May
Jun
DAPP 2013
Jul
Aug
Sep
DAPP 2014
Oct
Nov
APP 2014
Dec
• GB finished pig prices have been under pressure since the
early summer and had fallen by around 20p/kg by the end of
the year. The APP (one of two new price measures which have
replaced the DAPP) for December was below 148p/kg, around
24p lower than the DAPP a year earlier. The fall is largely due to
increased supplies of UK pig meat being met by subdued
consumer demand on the domestic market, although low EU
prices have also contributed
• Despite the fall in pig prices, average producer margins
remained positive for most of 2014 due to low feed prices
following a second consecutive harvest without any major
weather disruptions. However, by the end of the year most
producers were at or below their break-even point and further
price falls in the New Year will have put most into the red for the
first time in 18 months
• EU pig prices have fallen even more sharply than UK prices
since the summer, partly due to the impact of the Russian ban
on imports of EU pork products. By the end of the year, the
average price had fallen to around €130 per 100kg, the lowest
level in nearly five years. With the pound strengthening against
the euro, the sterling equivalent dropped below £1/kg in early
2015 and the gap between UK and EU prices remained at a
record level, peaking at nearly 40p/kg.
www.bpex.org.uk • www.lovepork.co.uk • www.AHDB.org.uk
BPEX CONSUMER CATEGORY REPORT • MARCH 2015
In Brief
CHRISTMAS TRADING
PERFORMANCE
Understanding the beef shopper profile
• Grocery sales in the 4-week period to 4 January 2015, which
incorporate the run-up to Christmas, show that shoppers took
advantage of food price deflation and stocked up on volume.
Online was a key success over this period, supported
by the extra trading day in the week before Christmas. The 6.4
million online grocery transactions made in the 4-week period
(half of which were through Tesco) contributed to half of
the overall market growth
• Online has growing appeal for Christmas shopping, with 12%
of shoppers using this channel to purchase their Christmas
groceries in 2014, up from 7% in 2010. While Online benefited
from the extra trading day this Christmas, Convenience
dropped off as people did less last-minute shopping. For the
first time in recent years, Convenience did not deliver
significant growth at Christmas
• The majority of proteins delivered volume growth in Christmas
2014, for most this came on the back of a difficult trading in
2013. Focusing in on roasting performance, three of the five
major proteins delivered volume growth. Competitive pricing
and strong promotions resulted in all five recording a reduction
in average price compared to last year
• Promotions played a key part in driving sales, Beef and Lamb
roasting joints in particular were heavily promoted and both
delivered volume growth. Beef roasting promotions increased
from 38.1% to 76.3% and the lamb percentage stood at 87.3%.
Within Turkey the long-term shift towards Crowns & Joints
continued. Chicken and Pork remained the lower priced
roasting joints, however, reduced pricing on the higher priced
meats (Beef, Lamb and Turkey) helped draw shoppers in.
Demonstrating that value for money does not always mean the
lowest price – consumers can trade up as they strive for value.
TOTAL MARKET CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH BY CHANNEL
4 WEEKS TO 4 JANUARY 2015
Source: KANTAR Worldpanel
ROASTING JOINTS • FRESH PROTEINS • VOLUME % CHANGE
4 WEEKS TO 5 JANUARY 2015
7.9
4.9
2.9
-6.2
-5.6
Beef
Lamb
Pork
Chicken Turkey
Roasting Roasting Roasting Roasting Roasting
THE PULLING POWER OF PULLED PORK (PART ONE)
A major new marketing drive to rejuvenate the image of pork with younger pork consumers gets underway this spring, but
how did the campaign originate?
BPEX Marketing needed to change strategy, due to changes in
legislation which meant that the points of difference upon which the
marketing team previously based their work, were largely removed.
While learning about the supply chain, head of marketing Kirsty
Walker listened to the issues the farmers, processors and retailers
were all facing and noticed a pattern emerging which was an
industry-wide problem – that younger people (25–55 yrs) are buying
very little or no fresh pork. One industry insider said: “Young people
aren’t buying pork because they don’t know what to do with it and
they don’t see it as a healthy meat”.
This prompted research to investigate who buys fresh pork, how
often and in what quantity. The results reflected the concerns
expressed by industry stakeholders. Historic research on consumer
attitudes to pork were examined, and repeated, to check current
consumer attitudes and to ask why consumers don’t buy pork for
home consumption. BPEX Marketing found that consumers aged
between 25–55 still saw pork as tough, dry, bland and chewy. It was
clear that this was big problem for all stakeholders and it was going
to become a bigger problem over time.
Continued on next page
www.bpex.org.uk • www.lovepork.co.uk • www.AHDB.org.uk
BPEX CONSUMER CATEGORY REPORT • MARCH 2015
In Brief
THE PULLING POWER OF PULLED PORK (PART ONE) continued
We needed to get 25–55 year old consumers to
think differently about pork.
Kirsty then asked pork processors two
questions: Where could value be added
to the carcase? And is there any
seasonal variation?
The answers were clear. If we
could stimulate demand for the
shoulder joint it would add value
to the carcase and there is very
little seasonal variation.
Could the answer be Pulled
Pork? It’s popular in
foodservice and the
shoulder joint is perfect for
pulled pork – could this dish be
the meeting point between
addressing an industry issue
and tapping into a consumer
trend?
BPEX Marketing did further
research to test the theory,
looking at cooking times, ease of
recipes and enjoyment of the dish and
found the dish was a hit. Research showed
Pulled pork with sage and onion
po
rk
w it
hM
oro
ccan
couscous
that if a household had tried pulled pork once,
they loved it and went on to cook it again,
even those who previously didn’t think they
liked pork.
The challenge is now to persuade
people to cook it for the first time.
It is for this reason that BPEX
Marketing is embarking on an
integrated marketing and
communications campaign,
which includes TV advertising
hitting our screens in early
May.
The campaign will also be
supported by social media
and in-store activity across
major retailers and has the
backing of all the leading
processors. It will aim to drive
more people to retailers and
butchers to buy pork shoulder
and encourage them to visit
lovepork.co.uk for a range of
d
e
ll
inspirational new ‘pulled pork’ recipes.
Pu
To be continued ...
Pulled pork sliders
Slow cooker pulled pork
Read more about these and other stories in Pig Market Weekly. To view past editions or to subscribe, click here.
© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) 2015. All rights reserved. While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, operating through its
BPEX division, seeks to ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time of printing, no warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the
maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that
caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions contained in or omitted from this document.
Contacts
Jane Chapman • Food Chain Manager 07810 658741
Sukhvinder Gill • Consumer Insight Manager 0247 647 8672
BPEX • Stoneleigh Park, Kenilworth, Warwickshire CV8 2TL
Websites: www.bpex.org.uk • www.lovepork.co.uk