Economics of Stand, Stem and Log Segregation Based on Wood Properties Why Segregate? 100% Volume Recovery 90% 80% 4% 70% 2% 4% 60% 38% 11% 50% 34% 9% G3 15% 45% 40% 30% 39% G2 35% 20% 31% 39% $$$ 32% 10% 19% 10% 9% A B C G1 6% 0% D E F Variability between Washington Douglas Fir sites Glen Murphy Professor, Waiariki Institute of Technology Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Veneer Recovery Veneer Recovery Return to Log Value vs Acoustic Velocity G1/G2 Veneer Recovery vs Acoustic Velocity 1200 Total Net Revenue ($/mbf) G1/G2 Volume Recovery (%) 60 50 40 30 20 G1G2% = 48.9V ‐ 143.3 R² = 0.91 10 0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 Average acoustic velocity (km/sec) Amishev & Murphy 2008 Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 First Look May 2014 ● Segregation will occur when the financial benefits outweigh the costs. ● When, where, and who segregates stems and logs will affect what is segregated and how segregation occurs. ● What qualities need to be segregated is likely to be customer dependent. ● New sensor technologies are providing a range of new tools for determining how segregation is done. ● The earlier in the supply chain segregation is carried out the greater is the need for standardised tools and procedures – one or a few tools will have to do it all. Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 1150 1100 1050 $/MBF = 327.17x ‐ 188.42 R² = 0.62 1000 950 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.90 4.00 4.10 Average acoustic velocity (km/sec) Amishev & Murphy 2009 Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Goals for First 3 years International review of log segregation practices and economics. Technical review of tree and log attributes collected by on-board computers on harvesters/processors Strengths/weaknesses of harvester/ALS/ TLS data for assessment of external and internal wood properties Design and build an economics of segregation model Test the model with three case studies Communicate results through 3 manuscripts, a technical note, workshop presentations and participation in cluster group meetings Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 1 International Literature Review Murphy G, Cown D. (in review) Economics of stand, stem and log segregation based on wood properties: a review. Scandinavian Journal of Forestry Research. Looked at ● International trends generating an interest in segregation based on wood properties International Literature Review Findings Regional or stand level attribute models will facilitate a coarse level of segregation but not account well for the between and within stem variation. ● Costs and benefits from the view points of different participants in the value chain Many tools and techniques are available for segregating wood based on internal properties but few (e.g. CT scanning, acoustics) have been implemented commercially. ● Models that have been used to evaluate the economics of segregation Some are better suited for application in mills (e.g. CT scanning) than in forests. ● Technologies that can be used to segregate stands, stems and logs at various points in the value chain Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 International Literature Review Findings The benefits of segregation are not clear due to high variability of wood properties poor market signals (in terms of price) for wood with superior properties poor understanding of the costs across the value chain. Most of the existing economic models tend to look at the economics of segregation from the perspective of a single participant in the value chain. Only a few models look across the value chain and these have limitations. Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Harvester Data Technical Review Tree Attributes User input – species, stand location, grade changes, stem form Measured – stand location, time, diameter OB, merchantable height, Predicted – DBH, diameter UB, taper, sound knot zone, density, stem value Emerging - TLS - 3D sweep profile, OB taper, stem location, reaction wood zones; RFID - stem ID Log Attributes User input – grade, sweep Measured – length, diameter OB, time, location Predicted – volume, value, density, weight Emerging – acoustic stiffness; NIR density; TLS reaction wood, clearwood; CV knot size and spacing Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Forest Measurement Methods Methods assessed: traditional, ALS, TLS, harvester data Attributes assessed: area, TRV, stocking, DBH, tree height, taper, log product mix, external features, internal features Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Forest Measurement Methods External Features Traditional Form (e.g. double leaders) Good Branches - OK (dependent on cruiser) Sweep – OK for 2D with experience Other defects – Good. Species – Good Health – Good. Aerial laser scanning Form, branches, sweep, other defects dependent on representative ground plots. Species – emerging, manual Health – emerging, manual Internal Features Density – DBH cores Stiffness – acoustics at stand level OK Resin pockets - poor Internal checking – poor All above may be geospatially predicted at regional level Density - ?? Stiffness - ?? based on crown and height features Resin pockets - No Internal checking - No All above may be geospatially predicted at regional level Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 2 Forest Measurement Methods External Features Terrestrial laser Form - not automated. Branches – possible but only for scanning Harvester data bottom portion due to occlusion. Sweep – OK for 3D on bottom portion –depends on occlusion. Other defects – fluting OK otherwise requires manual input Species – manual input Health – manual input Form ?? based off number of saw cuts or operator input Sweep – poor – operator dependent Branches – operator dependent Other external – operator dependent LOGECS Model Internal Features Density - No Stiffness - ?? possibly linked to sweep Resin pockets - No Internal checking – No All above may be geospatially predicted at regional level Density – ?? possible using NIR and saw chips Stiffness – acoustics on harvester head Resin pockets - ?? possible with NIR Internal checking – possible with NIR Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 LOGECS Model Properties of interest Structural - stiffness and stability Appearance – clearwood, defects and stability Fibre - density Technologies of interest Acoustics Laser scanning Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Optimal Acoustic Bucking Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Optimal Acoustic Bucking Murphy G. 2014. Priority list bucking on a mechanized harvester considering external properties and stiffness of Douglas-fir. International Journal of Forest Engineering. Challenges Buck-to-value versus buck-to-demand Optimal versus near-optimal External only versus external and internal Downgrades for incorrect forecasts Time-of-flight versus resonance acoustics VALMAX modified to include priority list bucking based on acoustic velocity forecasts and measurements Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 What Next – 2015-2016? Complete design and build of LOGECS Test LOGECS with three case studies – Nelson/Marlborough, Hawkes Bay, BOP ?? Communicate results through two manuscripts, a technical note, workshop and conference presentations, and participation in cluster group meetings 5% increase in minimum acoustic velocity 50% reduction in number of veneer logs 3 to 5% drop in value recovery Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 3 What Next – 2017-2019? Refine LOGECS and add more wood properties if necessary Economics of Stand, Stem and Log Segregation Based on Wood Properties Identify cost effective and profitable segregation strategies using LOGECS and GxExS analyses Identify and test technologies for tagging and tracking logs that have been segregated based on internal wood properties Identify the most appropriate intervention points and technologies for structural lumber, appearance lumber and fibre markets. Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 Glen Murphy Professor, Waiariki Institute of Technology Growing Confidence in Future Forests - TST meeting - April 2015 4
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