Local Elections 2015:
Preview North-East
…………………………………………………………………………….............................
Summary
Labour has a strong support base across the North East with potential to
secure this further in May. Labour only need to gain one seat to take
control of Stockton-on-Tees and they look set to do this in May.
However, the Party’s leadership of Middlesbrough could be at risk should
they fail to win the Mayoral Election following the retirement of popular
Independent Mayor Ray Mallon.
Although not a significant threat for Labour across the region, UKIP’s
growing support across the North East poses some food for thought for
the Party, especially in Hartlepool where UKIP has the largest local party
membership.
NB: Elections are not scheduled for Durham County Council and
Northumberland County Council this year. Both authorities became
Unitary authorities in 2009. Previous elections were held in 2013 when all
seats were contested. The next local elections are scheduled for 2017.
Authorities to watch:
Hartlepool, Middlesbrough,
Redcar & Cleveland, Stocktonon-Tees
In Redcar and Cleveland, Labour has lost the overall majority it won in
2011, following the recent resignation of 11 members. An all-out election
in May provides the electorate with an opportunity to have its say.
However, a Labour majority could be difficult to achieve. Prior to 2011,
Labour hadn’t managed to secure a majority in Redcar and Cleveland
since 1999.
1
Darlington Borough Council
Gateshead Metropolitan District Council
Current political composition
(All-out elections)
Current political composition
(Elections by thirds)
Leader
Cllr Bill Dixon MBE
(Lab)
Liberal Democrat 5
Labour 34
Conservative 14
Leader
Cllr Mick Henry
(Lab)
Liberal Democrat
11
Last elections
2011
Last elections
2014
Total seats
53
Total seats
66
Seats contested
50
Background & Analysis
Since it became a unitary authority in 1997, Darlington has been led by
the Labour Group, most recently under the leadership of Cllr Bill Dixon
MBE. At the last local elections in May 2011, Labour secured 34 of the 53
seats, with the Conservatives winning 14 seats and the Liberal Democrats
five. This election saw Labour strengthen its hold on power gaining five
seats – four from the Conservatives and one from the Liberal Democrats.
Our prediction
It is difficult to see a situation where the political make-up will alter
significantly within Darlington. However, the local elections in May will
bring boundary changes that will reduce the number
of wards from 24 to 20 and seats from 53 to 50. As
Labour hold
the largest party, this is likely to impact on Labour
the most.
Labour 55
Seats contested
22
Background & Analysis
Labour controls Gateshead Council and has done so since 1973. The last
local elections in 2014 saw no change. UKIP polled well last year, but
failed to gain any seats.
Our prediction
Labour hold
2
Hartlepool Borough Council
Current political composition
(Elections by thirds)
Leader
Cllr Christopher AkersBelcher (Lab)
Putting Hartlepool First 5
Labour 19
UKIP 2
Last elections
2014
Total seats
33
Independent 4
Conservative 3
Seats contested
11
All-out elections were held in 2012, following boundary changes which
had reduced the number of seats by 14. Labour were the most affected,
losing eight seats. Between the local elections of 2012 and 2014, Labour
lost a further two seats in by-elections and the Party’s majority was
reduced to two seats.
Only one third of seats are up for election this year which means that no
party other than Labour would be able to win an outright majority in
May.
Our prediction
Labour should hold onto their majority, but other parties may make gains.
Labour hold
Background & Analysis
In November 2012, Hartlepool voted in a referendum to abolish the
directly elected mayor and return to Leader and Cabinet system.
Although the Labour Party retained its majority at the last elections in
2014, winning six out of the 11 seats contested, it was the rising
popularity of UKIP that made the headlines. The Party won the Jesmond
ward, narrowly beating Labour by just two votes, a result that was finally
verified after five recounts. UKIP’s longest standing branch is in
Hartlepool.
3
Middlesbrough Council
Current political composition
(All-out elections)
Elected Mayor
Ray Mallon (Ind)
Independent 15
Last elections
2011
Liberal
Democrat 1
Total seats
48
Conservative 4
Labour 25
Seats contested
46
Background & Analysis
In September 2014, the electorate voted to retain the Elected Mayoral
system, whereas Labour locally campaigned for it to be abolished.
Middlesbrough voted in Directly Elected Mayor Ray Mallon in 2002. He
has been successfully re-elected ever since, but he will be stepping down
in May. The Elected Mayor selects an Executive Committee and usually
picks from their own political group. As an Independent Mayor, Ray
Mallon chose to recognise Labour’s local dominance by creating an
Executive consisting of Labour members and one Independent. To be
assured of control in the future, Labour will want their candidate to
secure the mayoralty.
Preston, former Labour councillor and Labour Mayoral candidate, Mike
Carr, Len Junier, who was deselected from the Labour Party in May 2014
and former TV and radio presenter, Dave Roberts. Lloyd Cole-Nolan is
standing for the Conservatives. He stood against Ray Mallon in 2011 and
polled over 3,000 votes, a long way short of Ray Mallon’s 11,405 votes.
Labour extended their number of seats at the last local elections in 2011,
from 26 seats to 30. However, in May 2014 five councillors were
deselected by Labour as candidates for this year’s local elections and
subsequently resigned from the Party. Two are continuing as
Independent councillors and will be standing for election this May.
Boundary changes this year mean that the number of seats being
contested will be reduced from 48 to 46.
Our prediction
Labour should retain its majority of seats on the Council in May. However,
all eyes will be on the Mayoral election. Should Labour fail to win this,
Labour’s control of the Council could be at risk.
Labour hold majority of seats
Labour Mayor
Labour’s candidate for Mayor, Dave Budd, is currently the deputy mayor
and executive member for resources on the Cabinet. There are four
Independent candidates standing including, Teesside businessman, Andy
4
Newcastle Upon Tyne City Council
Current political composition
(Elections by thirds)
Liberal
Democrat 24
Leader
Cllr Nick Forbes (Lab)
Independent 2
Our prediction
Labour hold
Last elections
2014
Total seats
78
Labour 52
Seats contested
27
Background & Analysis
Labour currently control Newcastle Upon Tyne Council with a
comfortable majority.
Whilst the Council has been a Labour stronghold for much of its
existence, the Liberal Democrats ruled with a slim majority from 2004
until 2011, when Labour took back control by gaining 10 seats.
The Liberal Democrats lost a further six seats in 2012 and two more in
2014.
The Lib Dems do still have significant support in Newcastle and they may
make some recovery at the next local election, however they will not
seriously trouble Labour’s majority.
5
North Tyneside Metropolitan District Council
Current political composition
(Elections by thirds)
Conservative 12
Elected Mayor
Norma Redfearn (Lab)
Liberal Democrat 4
Last elections
2014
Our prediction
Labour will retain its majority in May. The next Mayoral election is not
until 2017 and so Labour’s leadership of the Council will remain.
Labour hold
Total seats
60
Labour 44
Seats contested
20
Background & Analysis
Labour hold the majority of seats on North Tyneside Council and lead the
authority with Elected Mayor, Norma Redfearn.
Labour has controlled the Council for most of the period from the 1970s
to 2004, when the Party lost to No Overall Control. The Conservatives
enjoyed a brief spell in power as a minority administration from 2008
until 2010, when the Council once again was under No Overall Control.
Labour reclaimed the majority in 2011, taking six seats from the
Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Labour continued to extend its lead
in the following local elections in 2012 and 2014, being the only party to
make gains. Elected Mayor, Labour’s Norma Redfearn, won power in May
2013 with 55% of the vote, beating incumbent Conservative Linda Arkley
to the post.
6
Redcar and Cleveland Council
Current political composition
(All-out elections)
The
Independent
Group 13
Labour 17
Last elections
2011
New
Independents
10
Total seats
59
Conservative 6
Independent 2
Leader
Cllr Mary Lanigan (Ind
Group)
Liberal
Democrat
11
It seems unlikely that Labour will regain control. Prior to 2011, Labour had
not secured an outright majority since they were last in control in 1999.
Our prediction
It looks likely that the Council will remain under No Overall Control.
NOC hold
Seats contested
59
Background & Analysis
Cllr Mary Lanigan was appointed Council Leader in February this year,
after George Dunning resigned from the Labour Party and therefore his
position of leader.
A split within the Labour Group recently led to the resignation of 11
members and the Party effectively losing control of the Council. As it
currently stands the Independent Groups have formed a coalition with
the Liberal Democrats, with an Independent Group Leader and Lib Dem
Deputy.
Much has happened since the last elections in 2011, and an all-out
election gives the electorate an opportunity to have their say on who
should run the local authority.
7
South Tyneside Council
Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council
Current political composition
(Elections by thirds)
Current political composition
(All-out elections)
UKIP 2
Independent Putting People First
2
Conservative 1
Leader
Cllr Ian Malcolm (Lab)
Last elections
2014
Total seats
54
Seats contested
18
Thornaby Independent
Association 5
UKIP 1
Ingleby Barwick
Independent
Society 6
However, in a by-election last October, UKIP candidate Norman Dennis
claimed the vacant Westoe ward seat beating Labour’s Katharine Maxwell
with a majority of 51.
Our prediction
Labour hold
Last elections
2011
Total seats
56
Seats contested
56
Liberal
Democrat 4
Labour 49
Background & Analysis
The Labour Party retained control in the last elections (2014), holding 16
of the 18 seats contested. Indeed, Labour candidate Geraldine Kilgour
gained a seat from UKIP in the Fellgate and Hedworth ward.
Billingham Independent
Assocation 2
Leader
Cllr Bob Cook (Lab)
Conservative 11
Labour 27
Background & Analysis
Labour currently controls the Council with a minority administration. In
2011, the Labour Party failed to take overall control of Stockton Council
by the smallest of margins. Although they increased their numbers by five
seats, they fell short of taking a majority by just two.
The Ingleby Barwick Independent Society was the only independent
group not to lose seats, successfully retaining all six of their councillors.
Our prediction
Labour only need to gain two seats to win an overall majority.
Labour GAIN
8
Sunderland City Council
Current political composition
(Elections by thirds)
Conservative 8
Leader
Cllr Paul
Watson (Lab)
Independent 4
Last elections
2014
Total seats
75
Labour 63
Seats
contested
25
Background & Analysis
Never controlled by a different party, Sunderland has always been a
Labour borough. In the last election in 2014, Labour retained control but
with a reduced majority of one – Labour Mayor, Cllr Robert Heron, lost
the Copt Hill seat to an Independent candidate by just 70 votes. For the
first time in 2014, UKIP fielded a candidate in every ward and finished
second in 16 of the 23 wards they contested.
Our prediction
Labour hold
9
Contact us:
Scott Royal
Managing Director
0114 282 3101
[email protected]
www.resolvepublicaffairs.co.uk
We’ll be tweeting the results,
follow us on Twitter
@ResolvePA
10