1. law, govt and politics
2. legal issues
3. human rights

What is going well in Afghanistan
……………….and why?
Lessons Learnt or Coincidence?
Personal Impressions, 2000-2014
… go counter the impression I receive through the media
First Democratic Transfer of Power
• Through tainted elections, albeit less fraudulent than 2009 and maybe 2004 elections
• With the intercession of the USA and an anti-constitutional power-sharing deal
• Ill-functioning electoral institutions: IEC, ECC: voter registration problems etc
….but still! A historic turning point
Vibrant Open Society
Popper defined the open society as one "in which individuals are confronted with
personal decisions" as opposed to a "magical or tribal or collectivist society.
In open societies, the government is purported to be responsive and tolerant, and
political mechanisms are said to be transparent and flexible
= a society characterized by a flexible structure, freedom of belief, and wide
dissemination of information.
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Freedom of expression and media freedom
Upwardly mobile & educational opportunities
Freedom of opinion, association – civil liberties
Increasing gender participation in society
Increasing participation by national minorities
It’s the Economy
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Opening of international borders to allow access
Sound fiscal policies: new currency, little inflation etc.
Road building to provide access for local markets
Energy and other utilities provided albeit too slowly
Businesses set up by returning Afghans
Opium/heroin trade: country awash with cash
Construction boom
Huge demand for consumer products
Growing Import Substitution Industry – investment
Motor of Afghan growth remains agriculture
Employment opportunities, demand for skills
Cultural Heritage
Music, dance, poetry, literature and even theatre have come alive again
Ashraf Ghani:
A ten-year framework for Afghanistan
Executing the Obama plan… and beyond
1.
Published a month after Obama’s White Paper
for Afghanistan and Pakistan
2.
Threats: AQ, insurgency, narcotics trade and
bad governance.
3.
“the inability of the international community
to develop a unified strategy or coordination
mechanism”
4.
“The tendency of the Afghan elite to support
instability rather than institutional reform is
another key obstacle”
5.
the assets are:
1.
2.
6.
the natural, financial, and human capital
the institutional successes in areas ranging
from the national army to rural development
Success of NSP program <- good program
design and stakeholder consultation
Questions
1. How does Ghani position
the state-building exercise
vis-à-vis the US?
2. Threats for who?
3. Why is the donor
community incapable of
coordination and what
does it entail?
4. Which elite? How can this
problem be addressed?
5. Evaluate the state of the
capital and the
institutional successes
6. NSP was generally
successful, but why?
Four Institutional Functions
This classification of functions will allow for a method
of benchmarking and measurement and allow
domestic and international actors to move
1.
Rule of Law, Public Finance (accountability) and
civil servants capacity building, to make them
stakeholders in reform processes
2.
Developing markets and creating jobs
(employment vs insurgency and
counternarcotics). Support of agriculture,
market access, mining and public
(construction) works
3.
Infrastructure, alternative energies, harness
space/territory and social policies to generate
bottom-up wealth
4.
Public borrowing to ensure long-term
development including the education of future
generations
This focus on institution building is “in line with the
broader international thinking on state-building,
which now emphasizes the centrality of governance
and the cost of failure of disparate and piecemeal
development approaches.”
Institutional Functions
This part betrays Ghani’s WBlike belief that all problems can
be solved by experts with nearscientific, measurable methods
and results.
The text is not even clear and
betrays hasty writing.
He uses this Atlantic Council
report as his bid for the
presidency.
He talks about the Afghans as
‘stakeholders’ in his plans but
his emphasis on a single, stateled approach (vs the “failure of
disparate and piecemeal
development approaches”)
betrays his autocratic approach.
Good governance
Ashraf’s (technocratic) definition: “governance is understood
as the mechanism for translating objectives into measurable
outcomes for citizens and lasting organizational structures”.
* How would you formulate ‘Good Governance’.
Examples Ashraf gives
1. Citizen’s rights (property, security, predatory gvt)
2. The Rule of Law
3. Delivery of Services
4. Accountability (to citizens)
* “The government should…” is the most repeated phrase in
this section of the text.
But: “In Afghanistan, however, public office is increasingly
seen as license for predation and personal gain. ”
“…corruption has major stakeholders and reform has no
visible constituency in the government”.
‘Closing the Sovereignty Gap’
Ten Key Functions for the Modern Sovereign State
1. A legitimate monopoly on the means of violence;
2. Administrative control;
3. Sound management of public finances;
4. Investment in human capital;
5. The creation of citizenship rights and duties;
6. Provision of infrastructure;
7. Market formation;
8. Management of the assets of the state;
9. Effective public borrowing;
10. Maintenance of rule of law.
Afghanistan under Ashraf Ghani
World Bank technocrat allied with major human
rights violator and warlord Rashid Dostum and with
moderate Shia scholar Sarwar Danesh