Download Report

Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
ISSN 1816-8272
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
Coping strategies to water shortages in central Sudan;
Almanagil locality
Muna M.M. Ahmed1* and Magda M. El-Mansoury2
Abstract
The study focused on Almanagil plateau, located in central Sudan, within three
states of Gezira, Sennar, and White Nile, which was excluded from the Geizera
Agricultural Scheme. Various coping strategies carried by inhabitants were
studied as means of climate change adaptation. A structured questionnaire (50
small-scale farmers), key-informant interview and group discussions were
undertaken in seven villages within this plateau. Questions covered coping
strategies with drought and flood shocks, suggestions for water shed
managements, improving surface, subsurface and ground water availability, in
addition to willingness to participate in adaptation and mitigation activities.
Secondary data included meteorological rainfall data for the last 6 years (20052010), expectations for water requirements for the next coming 10 years (20102016). Sources of water and quantities consumed by households and animals were
studied. Remote sensing and GIS and GPS survey level data were used to provide
information on potentialities for improving water sources for human consumption
and irrigation. All of the surveyed villages lie within S2 with moderate suitability
for irrigation but with different soil characteristics, generally slightly calcareous,
susceptible to erosion. All respondents in all villages expressed shortages in water
availability for both human and animal consumptions. Coping strategies with
drought or floods reported were temporal migration, selling part of their animals
or properties, turning to other activities. Willingness to participate in natural
resource conservation was expressed by all respondents. Suggestions to improve
water resources included building dams on streams, terracing, extending water
pipes from canals to farmers’ field, ponds construction, enlarging and deepening
of streams beds, establishing water pumps. It was concluded that the concept of
multi water use services could meet farmers’ needs for cooking and sanitation and
promote small enterprises as livestock raising, horticulture and crop production. In
areas with gentle sloping, surface run-off could be collected and used for
supplementary irrigation during dry spells.
Keywords: Climate change adaptation, coping strategies, water sources
potentialities
Introduction
In sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture accounts for 35% of the gross domestic product
(GDP) and employs 70% of the population (World Bank, 2000), and more than
95% of the agricultural area is rainfed (FAOSTAT, 2005). In this region,
agriculture is the engine for overall economic growth and, therefore, broad-based
1
Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Khartoum, Corresponding author email:
[email protected].
2
UNDP consultant.
103
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
poverty reduction (IFAD, 2001; DFID, 2002; Koning, 2002). In many areas,
poverty is strongly influenced by agricultural production, which in turn is
dependent on climate in general and water availability in particular. Across
Sudan, UNEP noted a general trend of intensification of traditional rainfed
agriculture and associated land degradation. In the drier areas, repeated
monoculture without crop rotation and adequate fallow periods has led to a
decline in soil fertility. This, in turn, has increased run-off and topsoil erosion,
further degrading the soil and inhibiting re-establishment of non-pioneer
vegetation and potential restoration of wildlife habitats. The adoption of improved
technologies by the resource-poor farmers under rainfed conditions is limited,
primarily due to risk associated with drought. The key challenge is to reduce
water shortage-related risks posed by high rainfall variability rather than coping
with an absolute lack of water (Wani et al., 2003). This study focused on
Almanagil plateau, located in central Sudan, within three states of Gezira, Sennar,
and White Nile, which was excluded from the Geizera Agricultural Scheme. The
aim was to study various coping strategies carried by inhabitants as means of
climate change adaptation. Sources of water and quantities consumed by
households and animals were studied. GIS and GPS survey level data were also
used to provide information on potentialities for improving water sources for
human consumption and irrigation.
Materials and Methods
Area of the study: Almanagil plateau lies between latitude 12o-13o N and
longitude 33o23'-32o38'E, at an altitude of 300-350.2 ft ASL, with an area of 1,125
ha located at the top of the plateau (Map 1), located within the three States of
Gezira, Sennar and White Nile in Central Sudan. The plateau is triangular defined
by Alshawal major canal to the east and west boarders, and Sennar State at the
southern border. The plateau lies within the low rainfall Savanna zone with annual
rainfall of 300 mm (MOAI, 2014). Due to its high elevation, it was excluded from
the Gezira scheme where agricultural lands is flooded by gravity irrigation. The
area therefore suffers from frequent drought due to fluctuation in rainfall. There
are many seasonal streams if well managed would provide an important source for
both pastoral and sedentary farmers.
The study area is characterized by the dry savannah climate, with short wet and
long dry seasons with average temperature reaching 32 oC in April-May in
summer and 26 -28oC in autumn. In winter the range is between 32-33oC reaching
a minimum of 13o-16oC. Annual rainfall of 300 mm, mostly during July-August,
variability is high reaching up to 30% (MOAI, 2014).
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
104
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Map 1. Managil plateau
Data collection
Primary data: Remote sensing and GIS technique were used to provide
information about potentiality of surface water sources for human consumption
and irrigation: Digital Elevation Module (DEM 30 M) and GPS survey level data
was used to produce Digital contour map in the study area.
Soil suitability for irrigation: The method of land suitability for irrigation is
defined according to the value of the capability (or suitability) index (Ci),
calculated by a weighted average for the upper 100 cm of the soil profile for slope
class, texture, soil depth, calcium carbonate status, salinity, sodicity, and drainage.
The soil of the study area was classified with respect to their suitability for
irrigation after rating the different qualities (Van der Kevie and Eltom 2003).
Electrical conductivity was also studied.
Village survey and questionnaire: Seven villages out of 55 representing
Almanagil plateau were chosen randomly, with a 13% sampling. A total of 350
households were involved in the questionnaire (150,000 inhabitants) (Table 1).
Table 1. Villages surveyed, their population and number of households per village
Villages
Population
No. of Households
Himirat
2350
350
Baghadi
2086
298
Wad mahamoud
1330
230
Alshikeneiba
6600
1100
Albraghna
3900
700
Barghol
700
110
Goz Alsheikh-Algaily
265
53
Total
18331
2851
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
105
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Participatory Rural Appraisal was used to collect data through semi-structured,
interviewing, focus group discussions, and preference ranking
Household Survey (HHS): The questionnaire (a pre-coded open and close-ended
one) was developed based on standard format for baseline information and further
adjusted with consultation with the agricultural administration unit at Almanagil
locality. The semi structural group included popular committee and women
groups at each selected village, to respond and discuss specific questions. The
focus group discussion included 7-9 farmers from each selected village.
Key-Informant Interview (KI) and Group Discussion: These two nonconventional methods were used to supplement information needed by focusing
on types of data that were more relevant to be addressed by people having enough
knowledge on affairs of their community. These included responsible persons
from Almanagil locality agricultural, rural water, range, and forestry
administrations, as well as the faculty animal Production University of Gezira at
Almanagil town.
Field Observations: Field Observations used to collect as many information
pertaining to water resources, livelihood means, farming systems, soils, range and
forest conditions, animal types, housing type etc.
Secondary Information: This included Necessary information from secondary
sources like published and unpublished reports as well as records of various
government institutions and NGOs. The data included rainfall, surface, subsurface
water, ground water, environment, villages more subjected to flood or drought and
livelihood associated\not associated with water.
Results
The contour map showed that the plateau elevation ranged between 370-380 m
above the sea level. This indicated much variation in the surface level. This could
be divided into three physiographic units; relatively high land, midland and
lowland (Fig. 1).
Source: RSA, 2011
Fig. 1. Almanagil plateau Contour Map
106
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Soil rating: Soil rating for quality was done according to Van der Kevie and
Eltom (2003). Soil fertility calculations included such parameters as pH, OC%,
N%, P, CEC, base saturation and micronutrients. Fig. 2 shows different rating
areas according to fertility. The area rated as unit 3 lies in the most arid part of the
area, it has the least fertility, the soil is sub angular with blocky structure, and
coarse gravels (<3% of the surface coverage). Unit 2 (with moderate fertility) is
found in an area susceptible to erosion as shown by some evidence of sheet
erosion, the soils are slightly calcareous. Unit 1 (most fertile) topography for
gravity irrigation is smooth to promote uniform distribution of water and provide
surface drainage to the most parts of the study area.
Fig. 2. Soil rating for agriculture suitability
Water Consumption and Sources: The total working numbers of boreholes at
some of the surveyed villages are 13 each of a capacity of 2500m3, with total of
32500m3. Water quantity at Hafir Sheikeneba was estimated to be 30,000m³,
while that of Goz Alsheikalgaili was 12,000m³. Therefore, total available water at
the study villages was estimated at 74,500 m³, equivalent to 73,755,000 litre
(Table 2). Human consumption (l/c/d) at the surveyed villages, calculated
according to a human population of 18,441 pesons and an estimated daily
consumption of 20 liter\person/day, was 368820 l\c\d. Animal consumption \litre
\day (Table 3). Total water consumption for both human and animal consumption
was 1,561,3353 litre (368820+15244533). Total water available was estimated at
73,755,000 litre indicating a deficit of -58,141,647 litre (Table 3).
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
107
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Table 2. Types of water services at the surveyed villages
Village
Himirat
Baghadi
Wadmahamoud
Alshikeneiba
Albraghna
Barghol
Goz Alsheikh- Algaily
Total
Water yard
3
2 pipe Network
5with pipe Network
3with pipe Network
1
1 with pipe network
15
Hand dug well
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
9
Ponds (Haffir)
1
1
1
1
2-Twining
1
1-lasts for one month
8
Table 3. Liter of water consumed per day (lcd) for different animal species
Animal species
population
Cows
Sheep
Goats
Camels
Donkeys\Horses
Total
273,200
311,250
123,800
4,333
242
Average water
consumption
360
13.5
9
18
360
765.5
Total consumption per
animal species
9,835,200
4,201,875
1,114,200
77,994
15,264
15244533
Main sources of water at all villages in the study area are ground water, except,
Goz Alsheikh-Algaiely which depends mainly on subsurface source (known
locally as Ed), whereas other villages use groundwater which corresponds to
85.7% compared with 13.0 % for surface water (Table 4).
Most studied villages showed almost similarly high degree of water dissatisfaction
(frequency 233 with 66.9%) as at Bargool, Bagadi, Wadmahamoud, Himirat and
Albraghna villages except Alshikaneiba and Goz Alshikh-Algaily (Table 5).
Table 4.Main water sources at individual villages
Villages
main source of drinking water
Subsurface (Ed)
Ground
Total
Goz Alsheikh-AlGaiely
Alshekaneiba
Bargool
Bagadi
WadMahamoud
Himirat
Albraghna
39
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
50
50
50
50
39
50
50
50
50
50
50
Total
39
300
339
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
108
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Table 5.Degree of drinking water satisfaction at individual villages
degree of satisfaction
Villages
Yes
No
Total
Goz Alsheikh-Algaiely
39
0
39
Alshekaneiba
37
2
39
Bargool
0
50
50
Bagadi
13
36
50
WadMahamoud
2
38
50
Himirat
0
50
50
Albraghna
2
38
50
113
233
338
Total
Adaptation to climate change and coping strategies: Coping strategies included
activities such as seasonal migrations represented the highest percentage of 33.0%
and frequency 153 mostly in Bargool, whereas working as labors elsewhere
represented a second alternative, of frequency 135 and 31.3% (Tables 6 and 7).
Most of those who worked as labors were in Alshekaneiba and Bagadi villages.
Other options came as second priority for most of villages as temporal migration,
selling animals or properties or changing to alternative crop, while seeking other
livelihood means showed the least alternative by respondents in all villages (Table
8).
Villages
Table 6.Coping strategies at individual villages
Coping strategies
seasonal
labor
migration
other
Goz
AlsheikhAlGaiely
Alshekaneiba
Bargool
Bagadi
Wad-Mahamoud
Himirat
Albraghna
23
25
2
Total
50
33
6
33
18
20
12
16
38
10
16
20
29
1
6
7
16
9
9
50
50
50
50
39
50
Total
135
153
50
339
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
109
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Table 7. Coping strategies at individual villages, frequency and percent
Valid
Cumulative
Frequency Percent
Percent
Percent
Valid
laboring
135
31.3
31.5
31.5
seasonal migration
153
33.0
33.1
85.7
other
50
13.3
13.3
100.0
Total
339
99.7
100.0
1
0.3
350
100.0
Missing
Total
Table 8.Other coping strategies at individual villages to climate change
Village
Goz
AlsheikhAlgaiely
Alshekaneiba
Bargool
Bagadi
WadMahamoud
Himirat
Albraghna
Total
Other coping strategies to climate change
raising
Change
other
selling
other
type of
types of
temporal
part of
options of
crop
animals migration properties livelihood
0
0
50
0
0
0
2
1
2
2
12
19
1
1
0
0
0
1
3
0
33
21
7
28
27
177
19
0
9
26
2
3
60
30
2
19
15
18
6
90
Total
50
50
39
50
50
50
50
339
Perception of climatic change impact on natural resources and crop
production: Table 9 shows respondents’ opinion on impact of climate change on
natural resources deterioration. About 69.7% of the respondents expressed that
climate change was the cause of drought, 3.3% related climate change to floods
and 26.6% of the respondents related both drought and floods to climate change.
Crop production was witnessed to decrease by most respondents in all villages as
compared to increase or no change (Table 10). Over 83.0% of respondents agreed
on a decreased crop production in comparison with 13% who favored an increased
production.
Willingness to participate in natural resource management: All respondents at
all villages' agreed to participate in forest conservation (Table 11) whereas most
of the respondents villages were willing to contribute in water resource especially
at Bagadi, Wad-Mahmoud, and Himirat (Table 12)
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
110
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Table 9. Respondents’ opinion about impact of climate change on natural
resources deterioration
Damages
Villages
flooding Drought
Alsheikh0
23
Goz
Algaiely
Alshekaneiba
Bargool
Bagadi
WadMahamoud
Himirat
Albraghna
both flood and
drought
23
Total
38
0
2
0
0
3
7
37
38
35
35
39
16
3
0
15
15
8
27
50
50
50
50
50
50
Total
12
233
93
339
Table 10. Respondents’ opinion about impact of climate change on crop
production
Village
Crop production
Increased
Decreased
No
Total
change
Goz AlsheikhAlGaiely
3
37
9
39
Alshekaneiba
0
37
3
50
Bargool
2
33
13
50
Bagadi
0
50
0
50
WadMahamoud
1
33
6
50
Himirat
0
37
13
50
Albraghna
0
35
5
50
Total
6
293
50
339
Table 11. Willingness to participate in forest conservation
at individual villages
Village
Forestry conservation
Goz AlsheikhAlGaiely
50
Alshekaneiba
50
Bargool
50
Bagadi
50
Wadmahamoud
50
Himirat
50
Albraghna
50
Total
350
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
111
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Table 12. Willingness to participate in water management
solutions at individual villages
willingness to contribute in solution
and management
Villages
Total
Yes
No
Alshekaneiba
2
0
2
Bargool
25
0
25
Bagadi
39
1
50
WadMahamoud
36
3
50
Himirat
33
5
39
Albraghna
33
17
50
Total
199
27
226
Mitigation options for water management: Suggestions proposed by
respondents for water harvesting for farming, and animal raising were terracing,
dams on streams, establishing water pumps, enlargement and deepening of
streams (Table 13). Terracing and dam building showed higher percentages (28.3,
23.3% respectively) followed by establishing water pumps and extending water
pipes from canals (13.9, 13.3% respectively). Pond construction and enlargement,
and deepening of stream came as the least options (11.7, 6.9%). Options for
improving water resources for domestic purposes at individual villages (Table
3.28) included maintenance of existing sources (37.7%, frequency 132), as well as
constructing new sources (25.7% frequency 90) (Table 14).
Table 13. Mitigation options for water management at individual villages
Water harvesting techniques
Villages
Building
Water
Ponds
dams in
pipes from constructi
streams Terracing
canals
on
Goz
AlsheikhAlGaiely
Enlarging
&deepening
of streams Establishing
beds
water pumps Total
22
3
3
3
10
7
50
Alshekaneiba
2
37
3
3
1
3
50
Bargool
17
13
2
1
8
7
39
Bagadi
6
7
3
12
10
12
50
WadMahamoud
9
23
16
0
0
2
50
Himirat
16
7
8
1
9
8
39
Albraghna
10
7
13
3
3
13
50
Total
82
99
50
23
31
52
338
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
112
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
Table 14.Mitigation options for water management at individual villages,
frequency and percent
Water
options
Valid
management
Valid
Frequency Percent Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Building dams
terracing
Water pipes from canals
Pond construction
Enlarging &deepening of
streams
Establishing water pumps
82
99
50
23
31
23.3
28.3
13.3
6.9
11.7
23.6
28.3
13.3
6.9
11.8
23.6
52.0
66.3
73.3
85.1
52
13.9
13.9
100.0
Total
338
99.3
100.0
2
0.6
350
100.0
Missing
Total
Discussion
Al-Mangil plateau faces shortages of water augmented by dry spells and desert
encroachment. Increased temperature coupled with reduced rainfall could
influence soil water content, run-off and erosion. This study indicated that various
water harvesting systems could be applied, as evidenced by the contour map,
where three physiographic units; relatively high land, midland and lowland could
be identified. The northern part where the red soil exits and with gentle slope 13%, water harvesting could be done, the soil non-cracking and good drainage. All
the surveyed villages were within the clay loam to sandy loam soils, which are
sodic or non-sodic and slightly calcareous. The soils are classified as being
moderate suitability for agriculture (S2). The area was found to be susceptible to
erosion as shown by some evidence of sheet erosion. Accordingly, sprinkler
irrigation would be most suitable, since it allows water to reach the root and as
water saving technique.
Most of the respondents were well aware of climate change impact on natural
resources, crop production and water availability. They adopted different
strategies to cope with climate change, they were willing to participate in several
water storage techniques including terracing, dams on streams, establishing water
pumps, and enlargement and deepening of streams. Surface storage could be
through small dams, ponds and man-made tanks or small-scale reservoirs in which
the source of water is usually ephemeral or intermittent flows in wadis or valleys
(Oweis et al., 1999). In many countries, harvest results from farmers’ fields
showed substantial increases in crop yield in response to the application of
relatively small amounts of irrigation water. For example, the area of wheat under
SI in northern and western Syria (where annual rainfall is greater than 300 mm)
has increased from 73,000 ha (in 1980) to 318,000 ha (in 2000), an increase of
370%. The ratio of increase in estimated annual net profit per hectare to estimate
difference in annual costs between rainfed and SI was 200% (Oweis and Hachum,
2006). Research in Burkina Faso and Kenya has shown that SI of 60–80 mm can
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
113
Ahmed et al., Sudan Academy of Sciences Journal-Special Issue (Climate Change), Vol. 11, 2015, 103-114
double, and even triple, grain yields from the traditional 0.5–1.0 t/ha (sorghum
and maize) to 1.5–2.5t/ha.
In this study, people using communal ponds suggested using pipes for provision
of water near to their fields. In both cases, the importance homestead-scale
multiple water uses tends to be income for women, because water-related
activities near the homestead are generally managed and carried out by women.
With improved water services, the animals yielded more milk, providing women
with a higher income with less effort. Homestead-scale cultivation can provide up
to 58% of a family’s daily energy intake, and the welfare and health benefits from
increasing vitamin and mineral intake make this more beneficial than ‘kitchen
gardening’ (Koppen et al., 2009).
References
Koning, N. 2002. Should Africa protect its farmers to revitalise its economy?
Working Paper North–South Centre.Wageningen University and Research
Centre, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
MOAI. 2014. Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MOAI) annual reports.
Khartoum, Sudan.
Oweis, T. and Hachum, A. 2006. Water management in rainfed agriculture –
investing in supplemental irrigation. In: Agricultural Water Sourcebook:
Shaping the Future of Water for Agriculture. The World Bank, Washington,
DC, USA, pp. 206–213.
Oweis, T., Hachum, A. and Kijne, J. 1999. Water harvesting and supplemental
irrigation for improved water use efficiency in the dry areas. SWIM Paper 7.
International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Van der Kevie, W. and El-Tom, O. A. M. 2003. Manual for Land Suitability
Classification for Agriculture with Particular Reference to Sudan.Ministry of
Science and Technology, Agric. Research and technology Corporation.Land
and Water Research Center, Wad-Medani, Sudan.
Wani, S.P., Pathak, P., Sreedevi, T.K., Singh, H.P. and Singh, P. 2003. Efficient
management of rainwater for increased crop productivity and groundwater
recharge in Asia. In: Kijne, W., Barker, R. and Molden, D. (eds) Water
Productivity in Agriculture: Limits and Opportunities for Improvement. CAB
International, Wallingford, UK, pp. 199–215.
Copyright © 2015 SAPDH
ISSN 1816-8272
114