LAND SECTOR SEQUESTRATION Forum on Australia’s post-2020 emissions target Canberra, 20 March 2015 Steve Hatfield-Dodds, Brett A. Bryan and Martin Nolan CSIRO Integration Science and Modelling The contribution of land sector carbon 1. CSIRO Land Use Trade Off model (LUTO) estimates the profitable volume of carbon credits for three scenarios, based on carbon payments relative to competing land uses 2. We find that payments based solely on carbon results in very modest conservation benefits, and so model a ‘carbon focused’ and ‘balanced’ approach (providing biodiversity benefits but lower sequestration per hectare) 3. National sequestration potential exceeds the requirement for offsets, and so land sector sequestration is scaled down to meet the cumulative emissions budget for the 100% renewables (4.3 GT) and CCS energy (4.8 GT) scenarios 4. This implies land sector credits could help achieve very ambitious abatement goals (such as 80-100% reductions by 2050) without the use of international units, with supportive policy settings. 5. These scenarios would involve significant land use change, raising challenges and opportunities for rural land holders and communities and land 1 LUTO model Calculate profit at full equity for 23 agricultural commodities carbon forestry (single species plantings) biodiversity plantings (mixed native species) Intensive use zone: 85 Mha of cleared agricultural land Spatial resolution: 1.1 km2 Carbon values treated as 100 year annuity payment, and accounts for establishment costs, future climate change, fire risk, and biodiversity priorities 2 Three scenarios for land sector sequestration Balanced (carbon and biodiversity) ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake Carbon focused Carbon focused ‘most profitable plantings’ constrained ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake 3 Three scenarios – scaled to cover trajectory gap Balanced (carbon and biodiversity) ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake Carbon focused Carbon focused ‘most profitable plantings’ constrained ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake SCALED (74% of potential) SCALED (57% of potential) 4 Three scenarios – scaled to cover trajectory gap Balanced (carbon and biodiversity) ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake Carbon focused Carbon focused ‘most profitable plantings’ constrained ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake 5 This implies Australia could meet very ambitious long term targets, without use of international credits Exhibit 9.1, page 121, Targets and Progress Review Final Report, Climate Change Authority, February 2014 www.climateworksaustralia.org 6 … but land credits involve substantial land use change 80 Balanced (carbon and biodiversity) Carbon focused Sequestration = 4.8 GT for CCS energy scenario Sequestration = 4.3 GT for 100% renewables scenario Balanced - delivering 4.8 GT Carbon focused - delivering 4.3 GT (57% of most profitable plantings, unconstrained) 60 (74% of most profitable plantings, constrained) 80 60 Environmental plantings (biodiversity) Carbon forestry (single species) 80 80 60 60 Cattle 40 40 20 0 2010 20 2020 2030 2040 0 2050 Sheep Dairy Grains and other agriculture En pla Ca spe Ca 40 40 She 20 0 2010 20 2020 2030 0 2050 2040 7 Da Gr ag Total area of profitable new land use Balanced (carbon and biodiversity) ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake Carbon focused 2030 2050 ‘most profitable plantings’ unconstrained uptake (three times the scaled area required to meet the CCA budget) 2030 2050 8 Insights: What are the implications? Zero carbon is achievable – including for an energy and minerals superpower Land sector sequestration could help Australia could meet very ambitious targets by 2050, without relying on ‘investment in cost effective abatement in other countries’ (in combination with abatement from all major sources) – The DDPP scenarios only require a fraction of our sequestration potential – Carbon plantings could provide substantial potential co-benefits, reversing habitat loss in Australia and reducing biodiversity extinction risk – But land use change brings challenges as well as opportunities …. Including careful attention to water governance (and balance between health of our rivers and landscapes) Land sequestration outcomes in 2050 would require policy clarity well before 2030 Achieving near-zero or negative emissions would imply Australia’s per capita emissions are well below thee global average in2050 9 Professor Steve Hatfield-Dodds Australian National Outlook / Integration Science and Modelling Black Mountain Laboratories, Canberra CSIRO [email protected] 10
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