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Volume 8 | Issue 3 | March 2015
SC Leading Index Bounces Back in February
After declining by 0.46 points in January, the South Carolina Leading
Index (SCLI) bounced back in February with a 0.49 point gain to a
value of 101.87. The SCLI is a composite leading indicator of the state’s
economy that forecasts economic conditions over the next three to six
months. Last month, all indicators were positive except for a 0.2 hour
reduction in the average manufacturing workweek. A 53.5 percent
drop in the number of initial claims for Unemployment Insurance and
a 33.5 percent increase in applications for new building permits were
the primary index drivers last month. In February, the Conference
Board’s national Leading Economic Index gained 0.2 percent to 121.4.
KEY S.C. INDICATORS
Income
State Personal Income
+1.1%
increased to $181.6 billion in the fourth quarter
of 2014.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
South Carolina Stock Index
+4.8%
- David Clayton
gained 5.10 points in February, closing at
112.05 on the last trading day of the month.
Bloomberg
Employment
South Carolina Leading Index
102
Nonfarm Employment
101.5
+1%
101
increased by 20,000 non-seasonally adjusted
jobs in February from the prior month.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
100.5
Labor Force
100
+0.5%
99.5
99
increased by 11,908 to 2,238,648, seasonallyadjusted, in February.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
98.5
Unemployment Rate
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
98
+0%
remained unchanged at 6.6 percent ,
seasonally-adjusted, for February.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: South Carolina Department of Commerce
SC Real Estate Market Starts Strong in 2015
All South Carolina real estate indicators pointed positive in February,
showing broad improvements in the residential real estate and
construction markets to start 2015. Compared to a year ago, residential
real estate closings were up 15.8 percent in February, the median South
Carolina home sales price was up 4.6 percent to $160,000, the number of
filings for residential foreclosures was down 12.9 percent and the
number of residential real estate permits gained 2.0 percent. In
addition, employment in the construction industry has gained 4,700
positions since February 2014, now up to 84,600 employed in South
Carolina.
-0.5%
Manufacturing Weekly Hours
decreased by 0.2 hours to 41.7 hours in
February from 41.9 hours in January.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Available Online Job Postings
+9.3%
increased by 6,000 positions in February to a
seasonally-adjusted 70,300 job postings.
The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index
Real Estate
Single-Family Home Sales Price
+2.6%
increased by $4,000 to $160,000 in February.
South Carolina Association of Realtors
The Research Division at the South Carolina Department of Commerce is a highly-skilled,
multidisciplinary team of professionals dedicated to the economic development of South
Carolina and the collection, analysis and dissemination of information to support that
mission. The Research Division publishes reports and analyses for statewide constituents and
proposals for companies considering South Carolina for investment. If you would like to
receive Commerce’s monthly Economic Outlook, e-mail [email protected].
Residential Building Permits
+33.5%
increased by 637 permits from the previous
month to 2,536 permits issued in February.
U.S. Census Bureau
South Carolina Employment
Non-Seasonally Adjusted Wage and Salary Employment
Total non-seasonally adjusted, nonfarm employment increased by 20,000 from the
previous month, a 1.03 percent gain for the month and 3.45 percent for the
year. Last month, the Leisure and Hospitality (+6,100 jobs) and Professional and
Business Services (+4,300 jobs) sectors saw the greatest employment increases.
Year-over-year, the Service Producing side of the state’s economy has added 55,200 jobs, or 3.47 percent, while the Good
Producing sector gained 10,300 jobs or 3.32 percent. Manufacturing continues to gain steam, adding 800 jobs last month and
5,500 year-over-year.
February
2015
320,400
3,800
84,600
232,000
1,643,900
374,800
26,400
95,900
257,100
230,500
223,900
71,900
1,600,900
363,400
1,964,300
Industry Sector
Goods Producing
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Service Providing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Finance
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Total Private
Government
Total Nonfarm
Previous
Month
317,600
3,800
82,600
231,200
1,626,700
375,700
26,600
96,600
252,800
227,600
217,800
72,000
1,586,700
357,600
1,944,300
Previous
Year
310,100
3,700
79,900
226,500
1,588,700
361,800
26,000
94,700
244,000
223,200
211,400
70,400
1,541,600
357,200
1,898,800
% Change
Month Ago
0.88
0.00
2.42
0.35
1.06
-0.24
-0.75
-0.72
1.70
1.27
2.80
-0.14
0.89
1.62
1.03
% Change
Year Ago
3.32
2.70
5.88
2.43
3.47
3.59
1.54
1.27
5.37
3.27
5.91
2.13
3.85
1.74
3.45
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Weekly Unemployment Claims
The number of initial claims for Unemployment
Insurance (UI) fell 53.5 percent in February to 2,925
average weekly claims. The average number of claims
last month was the second lowest monthly average in
South Carolina since before 1987. Last month’s level
was 24.0 percent lower than February 2014 weekly
claims activity and 34.8 percent lower than two years
ago. Each of South Carolina’s metro areas saw
significant declines in initial UI claims last month,
ranging from a 65.0 percent drop in Myrtle Beach to a
29.8 percent decline in Columbia.
800
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
700
600
500
400
300
200
South Carolina
SC Claimants (Thousands)
US Claimants (Thousands)
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
United States
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Average Hourly Earnings
These charts present the average hourly earnings of all employees in private industry, based on a monthly national survey of
businesses. The data are not seasonally adjusted.
Greenville MSA
$23.00
$23.00
$23.00
$23.00
$22.00
$22.00
$22.00
$21.00
$21.00
$21.00
$21.00
$20.00
$20.00
$20.00
$20.00
$19.00
$19.00
$19.00
$19.00
$18.00
$18.00
$18.00
$18.00
$24.00
Jan 15
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 14
$21.39
Apr 14
Jan 15
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 13
Oct 13
$22.91
Apr 13
Jan 15
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 13
Oct 13
Apr 13
Jan 15
Jul 14
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 13
Oct 13
Apr 13
Oct 14
$21.53
$22.00
$22.94
$24.00
Jul 13
Columbia MSA
$24.00
Oct 13
Charleston MSA
$24.00
Apr 13
South Carolina
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
South Carolina Real Estate
Thanks to seasonal patterns in real estate construction and a large number of
apartment units (632) permitted in Greenville, the total number of building
permits issued in South Carolina surged to 2,536 units in February, an increase
of 33.5 percent over January. In addition, the number of homes sold last month
increased 5.9 percent and the median home sales price grew 2.5 percent to
$160,000. In the first two months of 2015, the Greenville, Spartanburg and Myrtle Beach metro areas have experienced the
largest gain in building permit activity, while Charleston and Columbia have seen the largest gains in the number of homes
sold.
Month
Current
Previous
% Change
Year
Year Ago
2014 YTD
% Change
2013 YTD
YTD
Closings
February
4,415
3,813
15.8%
8,584
7,473
14.9%
Median Sales Price*
February
$160.0
$152.9
4.6%
$159.5
$153.5
3.9%
Foreclosures
February
1,920
2,205
-12.9%
3,736
4,709
-20.7%
Residential Building Permits -Total
February
2,536
2,486
2.0%
4,435
4,696
-5.6%
Residential Building Permits -Valuation*
February
$467,445
$421,485
10.9%
$883,977
$771,980
14.5%
* Thousands of US dollars. Source: S.C. Association of Realtors, RealtyTrac, U.S. Census
Business Activity
Average Hourly Earnings (All Private Employees)
United States
40
2,000
30
United States
SC Stock Index
Weekly Manufacturing Hours Worked
44
112.1
43
United States
*Represents publicly-traded companies headquartered in SC.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Personal Income
Export Activity
Feb 15
Oct 14
Dec 14
Jun 14
Aug 14
Feb 14
Feb 13
Feb 15
Oct 14
Dec 14
Jun 14
Aug 14
Apr 14
Feb 14
Dec 13
Oct 13
Aug 13
38
Jun 13
39
60
Feb 13
70
Apr 14
40
Oct 13
80
41
Dec 13
90
42
Jun 13
Hours
100
Aug 13
110
Apr 13
120
Apr 13
SC Index Value*
SC $ (billions)
South Carolina
Source: South Carolina Department of Revenue
South Carolina
Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index
130
SC Jobs (thousands)
50
3,000
Jun 12
Aug 12
Oct 12
Dec 12
Feb 13
Apr 13
Jun 13
Aug 13
Oct 13
Dec 13
Feb 14
Apr 14
Jun 14
Aug 14
Oct 14
Dec 14
Feb 15
US Jobs (thousands)
Feb 15
Oct 14
60
4,000
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Dec 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Sep 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Jun 14
Apr 14
May 14
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
Feb 14
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
Mar 14
70
5,000
South Carolina
Retail Sales
Jan 14
Dec 14
$18.00
Source: U.S. Census
US $ (billions)
$18.50
Jun 14
0
Dec 12
Jan 15
Feb 15
Dec 14
Oct 14
United States
Nov 14
Sep 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Jun 14
Apr 14
May 14
Feb 14
0
$19.00
Aug 14
0.5
20
$19.50
Feb 14
1
$20.00
Apr 14
40
$20.50
Oct 13
1.5
$21.53
Dec 13
2
60
$21.00
Jun 13
80
6,000
$21.50
Aug 13
2.5
Feb 13
100
Jobs Available Online
$22.00
Apr 13
3
SC Units (thousands)
120
Mar 14
US Units (thousands)
Residential Building Permits
South Carolina
Export
Import
*Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. Source: SC Ports Authority
United States
Source: U.S. Census
2014Q4
2014Q3
2014Q2
2014Q1
2013Q4
2013Q3
2013Q2
2013Q1
2012Q4
2012Q3
143
2012Q2
2014Q4
2014Q3
2014Q2
2014Q1
2013Q4
2013Q3
2013Q2
12.0
$7.6
2012Q1
153
12.5
2013Q1
Jan 15
Feb 15
Dec 14
Nov 14
Oct 14
Sep 14
Aug 14
Jul 14
Jun 14
Apr 14
May 14
30,000
13.0
2012Q4
40,000
163
13.5
2012Q3
50,000
14.0
2012Q2
60,000
173
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2011Q4
70,000
14.5
2011Q3
15.0
US $ (billions)
80,000
US $ (trillions)
Volume (TEUs*)
Port of Charleston
SC $ (billions)
Income and Output
South Carolina
Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census
3
South Carolina Regional Update
The South Carolina Regional Update provides a snapshot of the most recent
economic figures for the six largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the
state.
Building Permits
Home Sales
MSA
Indicator
Feb 14
Feb 15
Charleston MSA
Columbia MSA
800
Charleston
820
1,042
$209
$212
555
666
$133
$136
S ales V o lume
105
110
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
$90
$122
S ales V o lume
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
Columbia
S ales V o lume
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
Florence
Greenville
S ales V o lume
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
Myrtle Beach
S ales V o lume
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
Spartanburg
S ales V o lume
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
South Carolina
S ales V o lume
M ed ian Price (0 0 0 's )
$60
400
$40
200
$50
200
$20
10
$0
0
0
672
800
$145
$154
600
251
400
$114
$135
200
3,813
4,415
$152.9
$160.0
$0
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
Value (millions)
678
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
Permits
Greenville MSA
Value (millions)
$150
$100
$50
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
Value (millions)
$0
200
0
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
Permits
Florence
Greenville
Myrtle Beach
Spartanburg
South Carolina
366.8
Unemp lo yment R ate
6.1
6.0
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
87.3
87.6
Unemp lo yment R ate
7.8
7.8
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
381.1
384.0
Unemp lo yment R ate
6.0
5.9
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
159.0
Unemp lo yment R ate
$150
150
$100
100
$50
50
$0
0
Value (millions)
$15
1,073
1500
1000
500
0
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
$10
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
Value (millions)
1,526
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
New UI Claims
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
0
New UI Claims
Greenville MSA
2500
161.5
2000
2000
2000
9.1
8.8
1500
1500
1500
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
138.2
139.1
1000
1000
Unemp lo yment R ate
6.7
6.7
500
500
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
2,079.8
2,090.2
0
Unemp lo yment R ate
6.6
6.6
New UI Claims
0
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
Spartanburg MSA
2500
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
450
New UI Claims
Myrtle Beach MSA
1,140
Permits
2500
2000
0
$0
Florence MSA
2500
2500
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (MSA figures not seasonally adjusted)
Permits
$25
Permits
Columbia MSA
2000
361.5
Value (millions)
$0
$5
Charleston MSA
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
400
South
MSACarolina Metropolitan
IndicatorStatistical
JanAreas
15 Feb 15
Columbia
$2
$20
600
Unemployment Insurance Claims
5.8
$4
20
Spartanburg MSA
800
Employment
5.9
30
Permits
Myrtle Beach MSA
1000
0
0
Source: U.S. Census
Unemp lo yment R ate
$6
600
679
333.6
$8
40
$100
$160
327.8
50
$150
589
Emp lo yment (0 0 0 's )
$80
400
Source: S.C. Association of Realtors
Charleston
Florence MSA
800
600
$151
241
$200
580
550
1000
500
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
New UI Claims
0
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
14 14 14 14 14 14 15
New UI Claims
Source: SCDOC analysis of SCDEW data
Brookings Metro Monitor: Recovery Ranking of 100 Largest US Metro Areas, March 2015
27th
+4.4%77th
21.1%
Charleston
70th
43rd
19th
10th
Columbia
Greenville
85th
27th
Augusta - Aiken
20th
9th
Charlotte - Rock Hill
Source: Brookings Institute, March 2015
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