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THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL
May 27, 2015
AYOTTE AND HASSAN IN DEAD HEAT FOR 2016 NH SENATE; GUINTA FAVORABILITY HURT BY SCANDAL
By:
Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.
Zachary S. Azem, M.A.
UNH Survey Center
603/862-2226
www.unh.edu/survey-center
DURHAM, NH – New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte continues to be popular in the state but is tied with Governor Maggie
Hassan if Hassan decides to run for Senate in 2016. First District Congressman Frank Guinta’s favorability ratings have dropped
in the wake of a Federal Election Commission fine concerning fundraising in his 2010 election.
These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey
Center. Five hundred and sixty-seven (567) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and
cellular telephone between May 6 and May 22, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.1 percent. Included
were five hundred twenty-four (524) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 4.3%). Included were 289 residents of New
Hampshire’s First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.8%) and 278 from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.9%).
Favorability Ratings – Senator Kelly Ayotte
New Hampshire junior senator Kelly Ayotte continues to be popular in the state. Currently, 48% of New Hampshire adults
have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, 28% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 5% are neutral and 19% don’t know enough
about her to say. Ayotte’s net favorability rating is +20%, which is up from +17% in February. She remains very popular among
Republicans (net favorability rating of +51%), popular among independents (+13%) and unpopular among Democrats (-11%).
Favorability Ratings – Kelly Ayotte
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
51% 49%
45%
37% 38% 38% 36%
40%
41%
53%
45% 47%
42% 43%
30%
27% 29%
20%
20%
10%
0%
8%
8%
25% 25% 24% 26%
29%
32%
25%
49% 50%
44% 43%
41% 41% 43%
28%
25%
32% 31% 30%
28%
48%
28%
25% 27% 26%
12% 13%
Apr. '10
Apr. '11
Apr. '12
Favorable

51% 50%
44%
Apr. '13
Apr. '14
May. '15
Unfavorable
We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New
Hampshire Survey Center.
US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan
Senator Ayotte has announced her intention to run for a second term in the Senate, and it is widely speculated that Governor
Maggie Hassan will challenge her for the seat. If this takes place, the Senate election in New Hampshire will be one of the
most closely watched races in the country. However, because the election is so far away, very few likely voters have decided
on who they will support -- just 6% of likely voters say they have definitely decided, 7% are leaning toward a candidate, and
87% are still trying to decide.
If the 2016 senate election was held today and Ayotte and Hassan were the candidates, 45% would of likely voters say they
would vote for Ayotte, 43% would vote for Hassan, 2% would vote for someone else and 9% are undecided. Ayotte and
Hassan hold wide leads among members of their party (Ayotte leads among Republicans 81%-9% and Hassan leads among
Democrats 87%-6%) and Ayotte has a 46%-29% edge among Independents. Currently 32% of likely voters have a favorable
opinion of both Ayotte and Hassan – among this group 48% would support Ayotte and 42% would support Hassan.
US Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan
100%
87%
81%
80%
60%
46%
45%
43%
40%
29%
20%
9%
6%
17%
9%
8%
7%
0%
Ayotte
Hassan
All Likely Voters (May '15)
Democrat
Don't Know
Independent
Republican
Favorability Ratings – Jeanne Shaheen
After being reelected to a second term in 2014, senior senator Jeanne Shaheen has recovered popularity after a strong
election battle with Scott Brown. Currently, 57% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 30%
have an unfavorable opinion of her, 5% are neutral and 8% don’t know enough about her to say. Shaheen’s net favorability
rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +27%,
up from +10% in February. Shaheen is very popular among Democrats (net +78%), popular among independents (+20%) and
unpopular among Republicans (-17%).
Favorability Ratings –Jeanne Shaheen
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
60%
56% 57% 56%
56%
52%
47%
50%
47%
50% 51%
48% 47%
52%
49% 48% 48%
52% 53% 53%
58% 56% 56% 59% 59%
53%
57%
57%
57%
50% 49%
50% 48%
34% 35%
36% 38%
40%
40%
30%
20%
24% 25% 23%
29%
33%
32%
37% 36% 36% 39% 39% 35% 35% 36% 36%
33%
29% 28% 28%
31% 29%
29%
30%
22% 23% 23% 22%
10%
0%
Apr. '08
Apr. '09
Apr. '10
Apr. '11
Favorable
Apr. '12
Unfavorable
Apr. '13
Apr. '14
May '15
Favorability Ratings – Frank Guinta
First District Congressman Frank Guinta, who won his second term after defeating Carol Shea-Porter last November, is not
popular in his district. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) recently fined Guinta over campaign finance violations and
ordered him to repay $355,000 that was loaned to his 2010 campaign. Subsequently, Senator Ayotte and other prominent
st
Republicans have called for his resignation. Currently, only 30% of 1 C.D. adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 40% have
an unfavorable opinion of him, 6% are neutral and 24% don’t know enough about him to say. His net favorability rating is 10%, up from -13% in February. Guinta is only somewhat popular among Republicans (net +23%), and is unpopular among
Independents (-34%) and Democrats (-32%).
Favorability Ratings - Frank Guinta NH 1st District
50%
39%
37%
40%
30%
30%
28%
33%
33%
31%
30%31%30%30%
28%
38%
10%
8%
40%
36%
27%
23%22%
20%
36%
34%33%33%
32%
30%
28%28%27%
26%
24%
22%
20%
18%17%
14%
11%
30%
29%
27%
26%27%27%
24%
23%
0%
Apr. June Oct. Feb. Apr. July Sept. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Feb. Apr. Aug. Oct. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. July Oct. Feb. May
'09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 ‘10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15
Favorable
Unfavorable
Guinta’s favorability in this poll began to slide after the FEC story came out and then dipped dramatically after Senator Ayotte
and others called for his resignation from Congress.
Favorability Ratings - Frank Guinta NH 1st District -May 2015 Poll
50%
49%
42%
40%
36%
34%
30%
29%
20%
20%
10%
0%
Before FEC Story
After FEC Story
Favorable
Unfavorable
After Ayotte Interview
Favorability Ratings – Ann Kuster
Second District Congresswoman Ann Kuster, despite comfortably winning a second term in November, continues to be
nd
unpopular in her district. Currently, only 24% of 2 District adults have a favorable opinion of Kuster, 38% have an
unfavorable opinion of her, 6% are neutral, and 32% don’t know enough about her to say. Her net favorability rating is -14%,
up from -17% in February. She is only somewhat popular among Democrats (net +37%), unpopular among Independents (net
-24%) and very unpopular among Republicans (net -52%).
Favorability Ratings – Ann Kuster NH 2nd District
50%
38%
40%
37%
35%
34%
32% 33%
32%
29%
30%
26%
25%
20%
10%
6%
8% 8%
10%
14%
27% 28%
30%
21%
23%
39% 38%
30%
25%
27% 28% 28%
23% 24%
23%
16%
13%
0%
Oct. Feb. Apr. July Sept. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Feb. Apr. Aug. Oct. Feb. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. July Oct. Feb. May
'09 '10 '10 '10 ‘10 '11 '11 '11 '11 '12 '12 '12 '12 '13 '13 '13 '13 '14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15
Favorable
Unfavorable
Granite State Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey
Center. Five hundred and sixty-seven (567) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and
cellular telephone between May 6 and May 22, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.1 percent. Included
were five hundred twenty-four (524) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 4.3%). Included were 289 residents of New
Hampshire’s First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.8%) and 278 from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.9%).
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, age, and
region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error
including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to
100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulation tables
as some respondents choose not to answer some questions.
Granite State Poll, Spring 2015 Demographics
Sex
Male
Female
N
280
287
%
49%
51%
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and Over
N
138
164
152
99
%
25%
30%
27%
18%
Highest Level of Education
High School or Less
Some College
College Graduate
Post-Graduate
N
89
152
190
127
%
16%
27%
34%
23%
Years Lived in NH
10 yrs. Or less
11-20 yrs.
> 20 yrs.
N
72
114
369
%
13%
21%
67%
Age
Region
N
52
88
78
152
88
109
%
9%
16%
14%
27%
16%
19%
Party Registration
Democrat
Undeclared
Republican
N
110
245
129
%
23%
51%
26%
Party Identification
Democrat
Independent
Republican
N
206
139
210
%
37%
25%
38%
North Country
Central/Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
Granite State Poll, Spring 2015 Demographics – 2016 Likely Voters
Sex
Male
Female
N
261
263
%
50%
50%
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and Over
N
113
161
143
94
%
22%
32%
28%
18%
Highest Level of Education
High School or Less
Some College
College Graduate
Post-Graduate
N
75
144
176
120
%
15%
28%
34%
23%
Years Lived in NH
10 yrs. Or less
11-20 yrs.
> 20 yrs.
N
69
108
336
%
13%
21%
66%
Age
Region
N
46
85
72
140
80
101
%
9%
16%
14%
27%
15%
19%
Party Registration
Democrat
Undeclared
Republican
N
99
236
125
%
22%
51%
27%
Party Identification
Democrat
Independent
Republican
N
188
122
203
%
37%
24%
40%
North Country
Central/Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
Favorability Rating – Senator Jeanne Shaheen
“Next, I’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable
or unfavorable opinion of this person – or if you have never heard of him or her. Senator (Former Governor) Jeanne
Shaheen?”
Statewide
May ‘15
Feb. ‘15
Oct. ‘14
July ‘14
Apr. ‘14
Jan. ‘14
Oct. ‘13
July ‘13
Apr. ‘13
Feb. ‘13
Oct. ‘12
Aug. ‘12
Apr. ‘12
Feb. ‘12
Oct. ‘11
July ‘11
Apr. ‘11
Feb. ‘11
Sept. ‘10
July ‘10
Apr. ‘10
Feb. ‘10
Oct. ‘09
Jun. ‘09
Apr. ‘09
Feb. ‘09
Sep. ‘08
July ‘08
Apr. ‘08
Feb. ‘08
Sept. ‘07
July ‘07
Favorable
57%
48%
50%
57%
49%
50%
57%
53%
59%
59%
56%
56%
58%
53%
53%
52%
48%
48%
49%
52%
47%
48%
51%
50%
47%
56%
47%
53%
56%
57%
56%
60%
Neutral
5%
8%
6%
5%
7%
7%
6%
8%
6%
9%
4%
4%
6%
7%
9%
7%
7%
9%
5%
6%
6%
5%
5%
6%
7%
7%
5%
9%
10%
13%
11%
9%
Unfavorable
30%
38%
36%
29%
35%
34%
22%
23%
23%
22%
29%
31%
28%
28%
29%
33%
36%
36%
35%
35%
39%
39%
36%
36%
37%
32%
40%
31%
29%
23%
25%
24%
Don’t Know
8%
6%
9%
9%
9%
9%
15%
16%
12%
11%
11%
9%
8%
12%
9%
8%
9%
7%
11%
8%
8%
8%
7%
8%
9%
5%
8%
6%
5%
7%
8%
8%
Net
+27%
+10%
+14%
+28%
+14%
+16%
+35%
+30%
+36%
+37%
+27%
+25%
+30%
+25%
+24%
+19%
+12%
+12%
+14%
+17%
+8%
+9%
+15%
+14%
+10%
+24%
+7%
+22%
+27%
+34%
+31%
+36%
(N)
(567)
(509)
(680)
(668)
(505)
(581)
(662)
(512)
(504)
(580)
(588)
(580)
(533)
(527)
(554)
(511)
(503)
(519)
(515)
(503)
(511)
(496)
(502)
(557)
(503)
(617)
(522)
(472)
(500)
(555)
(506)
(520)
Favorability Rating – Senator Kelly Ayotte
“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Senator (Former New Hampshire Attorney
General) Kelly Ayotte?”
Statewide
May ‘15
Feb. ‘15
Oct. ‘14
July ‘14
Apr. ‘14
Jan. ‘14
Oct. ‘13
July ‘13
Apr. ‘13
Feb. ‘13
Oct. ‘12
Aug. ‘12
Apr. ‘12
Feb. ‘12
Oct. ‘11
July ‘11
Apr. ‘11
Feb. ‘11
Sept. ‘10
July ‘10
Apr. ‘10
Feb. ‘10
Oct. ‘09
Jun. ‘09
Favorable
48%
43%
44%
50%
49%
43%
41%
41%
50%
51%
44%
53%
43%
42%
47%
45%
49%
51%
41%
36%
38%
38%
37%
45%
Neutral
5%
13%
7%
8%
9%
10%
8%
8%
9%
7%
5%
5%
5%
9%
10%
12%
8%
8%
11%
7%
7%
6%
6%
7%
Unfavorable
28%
26%
27%
25%
28%
30%
31%
32%
25%
28%
32%
25%
29%
26%
24%
25%
25%
20%
29%
27%
13%
12%
8%
8%
Don’t Know
19%
19%
22%
17%
15%
18%
21%
19%
16%
14%
19%
18%
22%
23%
18%
18%
19%
21%
19%
30%
41%
44%
49%
40%
Net
+20%
+17%
+17%
+25%
+21%
+13%
+10%
+9%
+25%
+23%
+12%
+28%
+14%
+16%
+23%
+20%
+24%
+31%
+12%
+9%
+25%
+26%
+29%
+37%
(N)
(567)
(509)
(679)
(668)
(505)
(582)
(662)
(512)
(505)
(579)
(590)
(577)
(531)
(527)
(554)
(514)
(501)
(520)
(515)
(504)
(508)
(497)
(501)
(556)
Firmness of Choice For New Hampshire Senate – Likely Voters
“I know that it is early, but have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Senate election in 2016 …
are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
May ‘15
Def. Decided
6%
Leaning
7%
Trying to Decide
87%
(N=)
(518)
US Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan
"If the 2016 Senate election was being held today and the candidates were Kelly Ayotte the Republican and Maggie Hassan,
the Democrat, who would you vote for?" ROTATE CANDIDATES
Ayotte
Hassan
Other
Don’t know / undecided
(N=)
May ‘15
45%
43%
2%
9%
(501)
Favorability Rating – Frank Guinta - NH 1st District
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congressman (Former Congressman) Frank
Guinta?”
1st C.D.
May ‘15
Feb. ‘15
Oct. ‘14
July ‘14
Apr. ‘14
Jan. ‘14
Oct. ‘13
July ‘13
Oct. ’12 – LVs
Aug. ‘12
Apr. ‘12
Feb. ‘12
Oct. ‘11
July ‘11
Apr. ‘11
Feb. ‘11
Sept. ‘10
July ‘10
Apr. ‘10
Feb. ‘10
Oct. ‘09
April ‘09
Favorable
30%
23%
27%
32%
27%
33%
24%
27%
Neutral
6%
13%
9%
8%
7%
11%
8%
6%
Unfavorable
40%
36%
29%
27%
33%
26%
34%
36%
Don’t Know
24%
28%
35%
33%
33%
29%
34%
31%
Net
-10%
-13%
-2%
+5%
-6%
+7%
-10%
-9%
(N)
(289)
(236)
(339)
(336)
(255)
(300)
(325)
(274)
38%
37%
31%
33%
30%
24%
31%
30%
33%
28%
22%
23%
28%
30%
6%
5%
9%
8%
12%
12%
10%
12%
4%
9%
7%
7%
9%
12%
39%
27%
28%
28%
30%
30%
26%
22%
20%
17%
18%
14%
11%
8%
17%
31%
33%
30%
28%
34%
33%
35%
42%
46%
52%
55%
52%
51%
-1%
+6%
+3%
+5%
0%
-6%
+5%
+8%
+13%
+11%
+4%
+9%
+17%
+22%
(273)
(270)
(253)
(256)
(247)
(248)
(243)
(236)
(262)
(264)
(257)
(251)
(251)
(260)
nd
Favorability Rating – U.S. Representative Ann McLane Kuster - NH 2 District
"Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable
or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Congresswoman (Attorney) Ann McLane
Kuster?”
nd
2 C.D.
May ‘15
Feb. ‘15
Oct. ‘14
July ‘14
Apr. ‘14
Jan. ‘14
Oct. ‘13
July ‘13
Apr. ‘13
Feb. ‘13
Oct. ’12 – LVs
Aug. ‘12
Apr. ‘12
Sept. ‘10
July ‘10
Apr. ‘10
Feb. ‘10
Oct. ‘09
Favorable
24%
23%
28%
34%
27%
30%
23%
27%
29%
32%
35%
21%
26%
Neutral
6%
16%
10%
7%
10%
6%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
1%
3%
Unfavorable
38%
39%
37%
28%
33%
32%
28%
25%
30%
23%
25%
16%
13%
Don’t Know
32%
21%
24%
31%
29%
31%
40%
38%
34%
36%
33%
61%
58%
Net
-14%
-16%
-9%
+6%
-6%
-2%
-5%
+2%
-1%
+9%
+10%
+5%
+13%
(N)
(278)
(273)
(339)
(325)
(245)
(281)
(330)
(232)
(276)
(325)
(325)
(311)
(270)
38%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
3%
7%
2%
5%
14%
2%
4%
3%
2%
42%
85%
81%
87%
87%
+24%
+8%
+4%
+5%
+4%
(243)
(226)
(250)
(240)
(252)
Favorability Rating – Senator Jeanne Shaheen
Favorable
57%
Neutral
5%
Unfavorable
30%
Don’t Know
8%
(N)
567
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared
Registered Republican
84%
57%
30%
3%
4%
9%
7%
34%
51%
7%
6%
11%
110
245
129
Democrat
Independent
Republican
86%
49%
34%
2%
10%
5%
8%
29%
51%
4%
12%
10%
206
139
210
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
83%
63%
31%
1%
5%
6%
13%
21%
57%
3%
10%
6%
130
238
157
Support Tea Party
Neutral
Oppose Tea Party
19%
61%
74%
8%
4%
3%
73%
22%
18%
0%
13%
5%
109
209
214
Likely 2016 Voter
Non-Likely 2016 Voter
56%
64%
5%
9%
31%
21%
8%
5%
524
43
Read Union Leader
Read Boston Globe
Read Local Newspapers
Watch WMUR
Listen to NHPR
50%
73%
62%
60%
74%
3%
3%
6%
3%
4%
42%
22%
27%
32%
21%
4%
2%
5%
5%
1%
171
85
210
324
144
10 yrs or less in NH
11 to 20 years
More than 20 years
49%
59%
58%
8%
2%
5%
21%
30%
32%
23%
9%
5%
72
114
369
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and over
60%
52%
58%
60%
6%
7%
3%
3%
19%
35%
34%
32%
14%
7%
5%
5%
138
164
152
99
Male
Female
51%
63%
5%
5%
38%
22%
6%
10%
280
287
High school or less
Some college
College graduate
Post-graduate
66%
56%
52%
61%
7%
9%
2%
4%
20%
27%
36%
29%
7%
7%
10%
6%
89
152
190
127
Attend services 1 or more/week
1-2 times a month
Less often
Never
46%
45%
57%
70%
4%
5%
5%
6%
39%
41%
30%
19%
10%
9%
9%
5%
140
59
170
176
North Country
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
77%
58%
58%
53%
52%
57%
1%
3%
2%
9%
9%
3%
19%
34%
26%
33%
29%
31%
4%
5%
14%
6%
10%
9%
52
88
78
152
88
109
First Cong. Dist
Second Cong. Dist
56%
58%
6%
4%
29%
31%
9%
7%
289
278
STATEWIDE
Favorability Rating – Senator Kelly Ayotte
Favorable
48%
Neutral
5%
Don’t Know
19%
(N)
567
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared
Registered Republican
36%
47%
70%
6%
5%
2%
39%
33%
15%
19%
14%
13%
110
245
129
Democrat
Independent
Republican
32%
42%
65%
4%
7%
5%
43%
29%
14%
21%
22%
16%
206
139
210
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
29%
45%
68%
3%
4%
4%
51%
26%
13%
18%
24%
14%
130
238
158
Support Tea Party
Neutral
Oppose Tea Party
76%
48%
34%
7%
2%
6%
14%
20%
46%
3%
30%
14%
109
209
214
Likely 2016 Voter
Non-Likely 2016 Voter
49%
30%
5%
2%
30%
10%
16%
58%
524
43
Read Union Leader
Read Boston Globe
Read Local Newspapers
Watch WMUR
Listen to NHPR
55%
32%
48%
56%
38%
4%
4%
7%
4%
5%
25%
57%
34%
29%
47%
16%
8%
11%
11%
10%
171
85
210
324
144
10 yrs or less in NH
11 to 20 years
More than 20 years
38%
46%
49%
10%
2%
5%
19%
32%
29%
32%
20%
17%
72
114
369
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and over
23%
52%
58%
56%
9%
3%
5%
5%
21%
32%
28%
33%
47%
13%
9%
6%
138
164
152
99
Male
Female
48%
47%
6%
4%
30%
27%
16%
22%
280
287
High school or less
Some college
College graduate
Post-graduate
46%
48%
46%
48%
7%
3%
7%
4%
19%
29%
29%
34%
28%
20%
18%
14%
89
152
190
127
Attend services 1 or more/week
1-2 times a month
Less often
Never
50%
45%
51%
40%
4%
7%
8%
3%
27%
23%
18%
41%
18%
25%
23%
16%
140
59
170
176
North Country
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
42%
43%
44%
50%
53%
48%
6%
5%
2%
7%
6%
3%
28%
33%
37%
26%
24%
24%
24%
19%
17%
16%
16%
24%
52
88
78
152
88
109
First Cong. Dist
Second Cong. Dist
51%
43%
4%
6%
24%
32%
20%
18%
289
278
STATEWIDE
Unfavorable
28%
Firmness of choice for New Hampshire Senate
Definitely
Decided
6%
Leaning Toward
Someone
7%
Still Trying
To Decide
87%
(N=)
518
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared
Registered Republican
4%
7%
7%
10%
5%
12%
85%
88%
81%
97
232
125
Democrat
Independent
Republican
6%
3%
8%
8%
3%
9%
87%
93%
83%
185
120
203
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
6%
5%
8%
9%
6%
8%
85%
88%
84%
119
221
141
Support Tea Party
Neutral
Oppose Tea Party
9%
5%
6%
11%
2%
11%
80%
93%
83%
107
183
196
Union household
Non-union
7%
6%
16%
6%
77%
89%
78
427
Read Union Leader
Read Boston Globe
Read Local Newspapers
Watch WMUR
Listen to NHPR
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
6%
9%
8%
13%
88%
87%
85%
86%
82%
160
76
203
301
130
10 yrs or less in NH
11 to 20 years
More than 20 years
3%
5%
7%
4%
5%
8%
93%
89%
85%
69
105
332
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and over
0%
5%
8%
12%
2%
7%
10%
9%
98%
88%
81%
80%
112
160
140
92
Male
Female
8%
4%
8%
6%
83%
90%
257
260
High school or less
Some college
College graduate
Post-graduate
5%
4%
4%
12%
1%
7%
9%
9%
94%
89%
87%
79%
73
144
175
117
Attend services 1 or more/week
1-2 times a month
Less often
Never
7%
3%
7%
5%
6%
3%
6%
11%
87%
94%
87%
84%
136
52
161
150
North Country
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
4%
8%
3%
4%
10%
7%
8%
9%
3%
10%
5%
5%
88%
83%
94%
85%
85%
88%
45
84
72
138
79
100
First Cong. Dist
Second Cong. Dist
7%
5%
6%
8%
87%
87%
267
251
STATEWIDE
US Senate – Kelly Ayotte vs. Maggie Hassan
Ayotte
45%
Hassan
43%
Other
2%
Don’t Know
9%
(N)
501
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared
Registered Republican
6%
41%
91%
88%
44%
7%
0%
4%
0%
6%
11%
2%
98
220
123
Democrat
Independent
Republican
6%
46%
81%
87%
29%
9%
0%
9%
1%
7%
17%
8%
185
106
199
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
7%
47%
75%
88%
39%
13%
0%
4%
2%
5%
9%
9%
116
218
139
Support Tea Party
Neutral
Oppose Tea Party
94%
49%
18%
4%
36%
69%
1%
2%
3%
0%
13%
10%
101
179
195
Favorable of Ayotte
Favorable of Hassan
Favorable of Both
Favorable of Neither
93%
4%
48%
52%
2%
90%
42%
19%
2%
0%
0%
9%
4%
6%
9%
20%
97
141
159
104
Read Union Leader
Read Boston Globe
Read Local Newspapers
Watch WMUR
Listen to NHPR
52%
26%
43%
45%
21%
37%
64%
47%
45%
67%
3%
0%
2%
2%
1%
7%
10%
7%
8%
11%
157
71
192
300
131
10 yrs or less in NH
11 to 20 years
More than 20 years
27%
38%
50%
59%
44%
40%
1%
5%
2%
13%
12%
8%
55
104
330
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and over
35%
49%
45%
47%
47%
41%
42%
47%
8%
0%
2%
1%
10%
10%
10%
5%
99
155
141
94
Male
Female
51%
40%
36%
50%
3%
2%
10%
8%
247
254
High school or less
Some college
College graduate
Post-graduate
46%
47%
45%
42%
31%
44%
44%
49%
3%
3%
3%
2%
20%
7%
9%
7%
69
141
170
113
Attend services 1 or more/week
1-2 times a month
Less often
Never
47%
42%
53%
34%
40%
44%
37%
55%
1%
6%
2%
3%
12%
8%
8%
8%
134
45
156
148
North Country
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
41%
46%
36%
51%
42%
48%
52%
46%
43%
40%
39%
43%
1%
0%
5%
3%
2%
2%
5%
7%
16%
6%
17%
7%
46
85
71
124
76
100
First Cong. Dist
Second Cong. Dist
43%
47%
43%
42%
3%
2%
10%
8%
264
237
STATEWIDE
Favorability Rating – Congressman Frank Guinta
Favorable
30%
Neutral
6%
Unfavorable
40%
Don’t Know
24%
(N)
289
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared
Registered Republican
11%
32%
50%
11%
6%
4%
62%
41%
25%
16%
20%
20%
58
114
68
Democrat
Independent
Republican
20%
17%
46%
5%
3%
8%
52%
51%
23%
24%
29%
23%
113
56
116
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
32%
21%
44%
5%
8%
3%
50%
42%
28%
13%
29%
25%
64
130
79
Support Tea Party
Neutral
Oppose Tea Party
54%
37%
13%
3%
5%
8%
34%
31%
54%
10%
27%
25%
46
117
114
Likely 2016 Voter
Non-Likely 2016 Voter
31%
9%
6%
3%
42%
19%
21%
70%
268
21
Before FEC Story
After FEC Story
After Ayotte Interview
36%
34%
20%
6%
2%
8%
29%
42%
49%
29%
22%
23%
88
65
127
Union household
Non-union
32%
29%
0%
7%
46%
40%
21%
25%
39
242
Read Union Leader
Read Boston Globe
Read Local Newspapers
Watch WMUR
Listen to NHPR
39%
30%
27%
34%
28%
5%
2%
10%
8%
6%
41%
49%
40%
44%
53%
16%
19%
23%
14%
13%
100
38
89
169
76
10 yrs or less in NH
11 to 20 years
More than 20 years
18%
44%
26%
4%
5%
7%
34%
41%
41%
45%
11%
26%
32
69
183
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and over
24%
34%
27%
33%
0%
9%
8%
4%
22%
41%
54%
45%
54%
16%
11%
18%
67
95
75
47
Male
Female
32%
27%
4%
8%
43%
37%
21%
28%
150
140
High school or less
Some college
College graduate
Post-graduate
19%
47%
26%
22%
8%
6%
3%
9%
37%
28%
39%
58%
36%
19%
32%
11%
37
73
111
64
Attend services 1 or more/week
1-2 times a month
Less often
Never
27%
28%
37%
27%
3%
8%
13%
2%
47%
26%
32%
45%
23%
38%
18%
27%
83
30
77
92
North Country
Central / Lakes
Mass Border
Seacoast
Manchester Area
4%
41%
36%
21%
40%
6%
14%
8%
6%
2%
55%
24%
35%
49%
35%
35%
22%
22%
25%
23%
27
19
66
88
89
FIRST CONG DIST
Favorability Rating – Congresswoman Ann Kuster
Favorable
24%
Neutral
6%
Unfavorable
38%
Don’t Know
32%
(N)
278
Registered Democrat
Registered Undeclared
Registered Republican
62%
17%
13%
7%
7%
5%
12%
40%
66%
20%
36%
16%
51
131
61
Democrat
Independent
Republican
50%
10%
11%
5%
6%
7%
13%
34%
63%
32%
50%
19%
94
83
94
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
41%
27%
11%
7%
5%
4%
15%
34%
66%
37%
34%
19%
65
108
79
Support Tea Party
Neutral
Oppose Tea Party
5%
18%
45%
4%
8%
6%
67%
35%
24%
24%
40%
24%
63
93
100
Likely 2016 Voter
Non-Likely 2016 Voter
25%
15%
5%
16%
41%
8%
30%
61%
256
22
Union household
Non-union
29%
23%
3%
6%
48%
36%
20%
35%
43
230
Read Union Leader
Read Boston Globe
Read Local Newspapers
Watch WMUR
Listen to NHPR
15%
20%
35%
26%
44%
4%
2%
4%
3%
2%
55%
54%
39%
44%
34%
25%
24%
22%
26%
20%
71
47
121
155
69
10 yrs or less in NH
11 to 20 years
More than 20 years
20%
23%
25%
10%
0%
6%
32%
46%
37%
38%
32%
32%
40
45
187
18 to 34
35 to 49
50 to 64
65 and over
8%
20%
33%
38%
9%
3%
3%
6%
30%
47%
42%
33%
53%
31%
23%
23%
71
69
76
52
Male
Female
18%
29%
5%
6%
45%
32%
31%
33%
130
148
High school or less
Some college
College graduate
Post-graduate
19%
15%
32%
29%
8%
5%
4%
7%
33%
39%
38%
40%
40%
41%
26%
25%
52
79
79
63
Attend services 1 or more/week
1-2 times a month
Less often
Never
26%
16%
20%
30%
3%
10%
3%
9%
53%
42%
29%
34%
19%
32%
47%
27%
57
29
93
84
North Country
Central / Lakes
Connecticut Valley
Mass Border
Manchester Area
17%
25%
25%
25%
21%
3%
4%
5%
9%
5%
23%
39%
36%
37%
68%
57%
32%
35%
28%
6%
26
69
78
86
20
SECOND CONG DIST