1. technology and computing
2. consumer electronics
3. telephones
4. mobile phones

How to make decisions on software
based service development in the
handset industry
The Rapid Model for Holistic Application Evaluation
Per-Inge Andersson
Patrik Dreveborn
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
II
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
© Andersson, Per-Inge & Dreveborn, Patrik 2008
School of Economics and Management, Lund University
Box 7080
SE-220 07 LUND
SWEDEN
Department of Computer Science, Lund University
Ole Römers väg 3
SE-223 63 LUND
SWEDEN
Master Thesis, Technology Management - Nr 168/2008
ISSN 1651-0100
ISRN LUTVDG/TVTM--08/5168--/SE
KFS i Lund AB
Lund 2008
Printed in Sweden
I
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Summary
Title:
How to make decisions on software based service
development in the mobile handset industry.
–The Rapid Model for Holistic Application Evaluation
Authors:
Per-Inge Andersson
Patrik Dreveborn
Tutors:
Björn Regnell, Department of Computer Science,
Lund University
Robert Wenglén, School of Economics and Management,
Lund University
Problem formulation: Academically the questions of finding out what constitutes a
sound decision base and finding out how to handle the issue
of a holistic approach must be addressed in order to make a
well balanced and relevant decision model. The core question
is which decision criteria to include and which drivers are
important in estimating the status of the criteria? Practically
to provide Sony Ericsson with a formalized evaluation
process for decisions on software development that is
transparent, objective and challengeable.
Purpose:
Academically to contribute to the field of decision making
research by elaborating on how to make a holistic, rapid and
rational decision model. Primarily for software development
in the handset industry but also valid to other related
industries. The framework needs to support the decision
makers and should also make the reasoning behind the
decisions more transparent. Practically an adaption of the
model for use at Sony Ericsson and evaluate its usefulness to
the organization.
Method:
Parallel case and literature study to establish the most
relevant estimation criteria. Development of well defined
drivers of the criteria followed by a two stage evaluation:
qualitative interviews and a case evaluation.
Conclusions:
The contribution to the fields of decision making and
estimation primarily lies in the general approach which has
showed a method of building decision models from a holistic
view point. Essential criteria and underlying drivers enabling
faster and more informed decisions have been determined and
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
the aim of making a normative model is fulfilled by the
synthesis of current practise and theoretical input. The Rapid
Model for Holistic Application Evaluation (RaMHAE)
fulfills its basic purpose by functioning as a ground for
decision making by incorporating the existing organizational
know-how.
Key words:
Decision model, handset industry, software development,
software based service, Rapid Model for Holistic Application
Evaluation, RaMHAE
III
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Preface
Initially we would like to thank our tutors at Sony Ericsson, Mats Lindoff and
Anders Östsjö and the rest of the Chief Technology Office for enabling us to
write this master thesis. We would also like to extend our gratitude to our
tutors at Lund University Dr. Robert Wenglén and Prof. Björn Regnell for their
assistance and valuable input.
Furthermore we would like acknowledge the crucial help that other employees
at Sony Ericsson provided by letting us interview them on their current work
practises and earlier development projects. Ericsson Consumer Labs also
made a valuable contribution by giving an informative presentation of their
marketing research and supplying market research reports.
Finally we want to thank our opponents Jenny K Andersson and Therese
Wemnér and our examiner Carl-Henric Nilsson for their work.
Lund 08-05-09
Per-Inge Andersson
Patrik Dreveborn
IV
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Table of Contents
1
BACKGROUND
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2
METHOD
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
3
PRACTICAL PROBLEM
THEORETICAL PROBLEM
PROBLEM FORMULATION
PURPOSE
BASIC FRAMEWORK
PROCESS
SECONDARY SOURCES
PRIMARY SOURCES
ANALYSIS
MODEL CONSTRUCTION
EVALUATION
SUMMARY
THEORY
3.1
DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATIONS
3.1.1 The Development Cost
3.1.2 The Quality of Developed Software
3.1.3 The Cycle Time
3.1.4 The Capability Maturity Model
3.2
MARKET & USAGE ESTIMATIONS
3.2.1 The Technology Acceptance Model
3.2.2 The Theory of Planned Behaviour
3.2.3 Value creation through mobile services
3.2.4 Prediction of consumer intentions of using mobile services
3.2.5 Quality Performance
3.3
STRATEGIC & BUSINESS MODEL CONCERNS
3.3.1 Innovation
3.3.2 Components of Technology-Market Linking
3.3.3 Business models
3.3.4 Branding
3.3.5 Network externalities
3.3.6 Prioritization of Development Projects and Requirements
3.3.7 Industry Analysis
3.3.8 Disruptive Technologies
3.4
SUMMARY
4
THE MOBILE HANDSET INDUSTRY
4.1
PEST ASSESSMENT
4.1.1 Political
4.1.2 Economic
4.1.3 Sociocultural
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
4.1.4 Technological
4.2
FIVE FORCES ASSESSMENT
4.2.1 Competition
4.2.2 Suppliers
4.2.3 New Entrants
4.2.4 Substitutes
4.2.5 Customers
4.3
MARKET SHARES & VOLUME
5
EMPIRICAL FINDINGS
5.1
DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION
5.1.1 Organisation Structure
5.1.2 Sony Ericsson Research Centre
5.1.3 Application Planning
5.2
CASE STUDY SERC IM
5.2.1 Background
5.2.2 Business case
5.2.3 Decision process
5.2.4 Summary
5.3
CASE STUDY SERC POS
5.3.1 Background
5.3.2 Business Case
5.3.3 Decision process
5.3.4 Summary
5.4
CASE STUDY - BLOGGER
5.4.1 Background
5.4.2 Business case
5.4.3 Decision process
5.4.4 Summary
5.5
CASE STUDY - TRACK ID
5.5.1 Background
5.5.2 Business case
5.5.3 Decision process
5.5.4 Summary
5.6
CASE STUDY - PLAYNOW
5.6.1 Background
5.6.2 Business case
5.6.3 Decision process
5.6.4 Summary
6
ANALYSIS
6.1
DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATIONS
6.1.1 Cost
6.1.2 Quality
6.1.3 Cycle Time
6.1.4 Conclusion
VI
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
6.1.5 Definitions
6.2
MARKET & USAGE ESTIMATIONS
6.2.1 Conclusion
6.2.2 Definitions
6.3
STRATEGIC & BUSINESS MODEL CONCERNS
6.3.1 Industry Analysis Concerns
6.3.2 Conclusion
6.3.3 Definitions
7
THE RAPID MODEL FOR HOLISTIC APPLICATION EVALUATION (RAMHAE)
7.1
THE GENERIC VERSION OF RAMHAE
7.2
HOW TO MEASURE THE CRITERIA
7.2.1 Cost & Time
7.2.2 Complexity
7.2.3 Total cost of usage
7.2.4 Installed base
7.2.5 Perceived Value Added
7.2.6 Technology Maturity Factor
7.2.7 Network Effect & Branding
8
QUALITATIVE EVALUATION AT SONY ERICSSON
8.1
ASSESSMENT INTERVIEWS
8.1.1 Cost & Time
8.1.2 Complexity
8.1.3 Total Cost of Usage
8.1.4 Installed Base
8.1.5 Perceived Value Added
8.1.6 Technology Maturity Factor
8.1.7 Network Effect and Branding
8.2
ANALYSIS
8.2.1 Cost & Time
8.2.2 Complexity
8.2.3 Cost of Usage
8.2.4 Installed base
8.2.5 Perceived Value Added
8.2.6 Technology Maturity Factor
8.2.7 Network Effect and Branding
9
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RAMHAE AT SONY ERICSSON
9.1
10
THE PROCESS
CASE EVALUATION
10.1 THE CASES
10.1.1
A Voice over IP Service
10.1.2
Subscription Music Streaming Service
10.2 OUTCOME
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
10.2.1
11
CONCLUSION
11.1
12
Example Subscription Music Streaming Service
THE PRACTICAL PROBLEM AT SONY ERICSSON
SOURCES
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
REPORTS FROM BUSINESSES & AUTHORITIES
ACADEMIC ARTICLES:
OTHER ARTICLES:
ORAL SOURCES
BOOKS
WEB SOURCES
APPENDIX I – ABBREVIATIONS LIST
VIII
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
1 Background
Companies in most industries and markets face the need for continuous innovation to
stay competitive (Boone, 2000). As the competitive pressure increases and the life
cycle of the product gets shorter companies need to make decisions based on
insufficient knowledge of technological, market and strategic factors. Since the
decisions on development must be made ahead of the actual development the decision
makers are faced with uncertainty and need a way to make informed decisions
(March, Simon & Guetzkow, 1958). This is valid in most industries, especially in
industries like the software & fast moving consumer electronics industries with their
short product life cycles.
During the latest decades tremendous progress has been made in the field of software
based services as well as the platforms that run the services. Therefore the research
regarding both the development methods (Goldenson & Gibson, 2003) and how to
estimate resource consumption (Agrawal & Chari, 2005) has advanced a lot. New
consumer needs, new cost structures and distribution channels (Accenture, 2005) has
also made an impact on the research on management of software intensive companies
and new business models for these businesses. All this has been driven by an
extraordinarily rapid technological evolution of both hardware and software
continuously pushing the boundary of the economically feasible (Bell, 2008).
One field where the technological innovations have made great strides lately is the
mobile handset industry. The innovations and developments of the handsets have
been accompanied by corresponding development of software to support new features
and services. Our particular interest is to find out how to make decisions on
development of these services under such circumstances.
1.1
Practical problem
Trends in the usage of handsets has changed rapidly over time, from being merely
used as a voice communication device to becoming a converged device used for a
host of local and networked services. The expectations on handsets and adoption rate
of new areas of use are of fundamental importance in the decision making on
development of new services. The geographical proliferation of mobile handsets also
puts new requirements on the services offered as lower income countries are much
more price sensitive.
The mobile handset industry has produced numerous services in the form of preinstalled and downloadable software, although very few have been highly successful.
In a strict sense only two network dependent services (one that uses the cellular
network to communicate with either another cell phone or a server) have become nonnegotiable: SMS and voice calls. A few other services based on integrated noncommunication functions have also became widely successful such as MP3-playback
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
and digital picturing functionality, however this thesis will be focused on the
network-dependent services. The most important questions being: what makes a
service successful and how it can be predicted?
The dilemma is that there are seldom, or even never, enough resources to pursuit
every potentially beneficial idea due to financial and personnel constraints. At the
same time there is a risk of being left behind in the development of the next
mainstream service. Businesses need to balance the risk of committing resources to
development of a service which future usefulness are unknown and the risk of
missing out on important technologies. The industry players must continuously ask
themselves if we are supposed to work with this. Or more correctly they must ask
themselves if they should commit additional resources to find out if the project in
question will take off. (Bengtsson, interview 2008-02-11)
The high pace of development and the sheer volume of suggested projects put
pressure on the industry players to develop fast and uncomplicated processes when
determining which projects to invest in and which to discard. As the industry
increasingly depends on replacement purchases a shortened life span of the devices is
critical for growth. Therefore it is highly important to investigate how to make these
decisions in a quick but yet thorough way as the stakes and cost of failing increases as
the pace of the industry increases (Accenture, 2006). The number of companies that
has withdrawn from the cell phone manufacturing business or generated large losses
forcing restructuring (such as Ericsson, Siemens and lately Motorola) shows that not
delivering the experience the customers expect quickly can become fatal even for the
biggest players in the industry. On the other hand the recent success of Apple shows
that the opposite also is true, what is important is that the main differentiating factor
is not the hardware often regarded as “check box features” that any manufacturer can
acquire relatively fast, it is the software (Gonsalves, 2007).
Currently the decision making at Sony Ericsson are based on experience and a sense
for the industry something described as gut feeling, in order to give the best advice on
how to work in the future the deliberations hidden behind the gut feeling has to be
made explicit and integrated in the new decision making practise (Lindoff, meeting
2008-01-10).
1.2
Theoretical Problem
In order to be able to make such decisions it is crucial to have the accurate decision
basis, it is of crucial importance to gain a holistic view of the situation. Our literature
review of the current research in the area found that it seems to focus on a single
dimension of the problem and thus lacks the integral picture. Technical aspects of the
decision like how to estimate effort (Kemerer, 1987; Braz & Vergilio, 2006;
Jacobson, Christerson & Vergaard, 1992) and quality (Regnell, Berntsson Svensson
& Olsson, 2008; Banker & Slaughter, 2000; Austin, 2001; Krishnan & Kellner, 1999)
or the processes involved in running software development projects (Agrawal &
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Chari, 2007; Goldenson & Gibson, 2003) do not account for the strategic or market
aspects of the decision.
Also most of the research, especially the process oriented, focus on mainly defence
(Diaz & Sligo, 1997) and space related (Maxwell, Wassenhove & Dutta, 1999) or
other large projects (Kemerer, 1987) that do not relate that well to the smaller, highly
dynamic projects in the handset industry. It is also obvious that critical applications in
these industry segments have another set of requirements than the consumer
electronics producer’s software are submitted to.
Market-wise there is some research specific to the handset industry regarding
intention of usage and consumer perceptions of mobile services (Anckar & D’Incau,
2002; Tang & Veijalainen, 2001; Luarn & Lin, 2005; Wang et. al., 2006). Although
these articles are highly relevant it is our opinion that they lack the holistic approach
connecting the market opportunity to cost of development. There is also a strategic
concern that an application has to fit with the company’s overall offering that are not
discussed in these articles.
Regarding the strategic and business model aspect of the decision making the current
general research is well developed and in many cases specifically directed towards
the mobile handset industry. Yamakami (2005) discusses business models and
Cansfield (2007) branding while Venkatesh & Morris (2000) among others discuss
the network effects all connected to the handset industry but neither of them gives an
holistic picture. A model for the balance between strategy, market and technology is
needed to make an informed and holistic decision and is currently lacking in the
academic research. Our theoretical contribution will be to tie these loose ends
together and make a normative model that are applicable to the software development
in fast moving consumer electronics industries, handset software in particular.
1.3
Problem Formulation
Academically the questions of finding out what constitutes a sound decision base and
finding out how to handle the issue of a holistic approach must be addressed in order
to make a well balanced and relevant decision model. The core question is which
decision criteria to include and which drivers are important in estimating the status of
the criteria? Practically to provide Sony Ericsson with a formalized evaluation
process for decisions on software development that is transparent, objective and
challengeable.
1.4
Purpose
Academically to contribute to the field of decision making research by elaborating on
how to make a holistic, rapid and rational decision model. Primarily for software
development in the handset industry but also valid to other related industries. The
framework needs to support the decision makers and should also make the reasoning
3
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
behind the decisions more transparent. Practically an adaption of the model for use at
Sony Ericsson and evaluate its usefulness to the organization.
4
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
2 Method
2.1
Basic Framework
Since the decision model shall consider all aspects of developing the service in
question a starting point for this work is to consider the two very basic needs of all
economically successful enterprises: profitability and strategic fit. Profitability is in
turn split into two dimensions; market potential and development and production
cost/time e.g. revenue less cost of sold goods (Koller, Goedhart & Wessels, 2005).
The strategic fit is necessary to ensure that a standalone business cannot derive higher
value than the manufacturer from the same idea (Grant, 2005). Based on these
established aspects of a business a three dimensional model consisting of
development, market and strategy was formed as an initial framework to be able to
build a holistic understanding of repercussions of the software development decisions.
The basic presumption is that each of these three dimensions should be attributed
equal importance in the model construction and that they are mutually dependent.
Market
Decision
Development
cost & time
Strategy
Figure 2.1 - The starting point for the decision model construction.
2.2
Process
A literature study was conducted in parallel with the case study at the handset
manufacturer Sony Ericsson, a process described in literature as an abductive
approach (Chamberlain, 2006). Both the literature study and the case study were
aimed at answering primarily which criteria that influence each of the three
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
dimensions of the decisions. Information on how well these criteria were suited for
measuring the dimension they influence was also sought. The relevance of theory and
the appropriateness of current practise were weighted against each other in an
iterative process in this phase of the project. The theories and practices were also
evaluated against the framework established in section 2.1.
2.3
Secondary Sources
To facilitate the understanding of the parameters affecting estimation of the three
dimensions of the project evaluation framework review articles and other general
information sources such as books on the subject were used. This was done to find the
most important and relevant theories and decrease the risk of missing any vital
research area. By starting general and recent and building a knowledge base based on
related research, a broad and extensive review of the research in the field was
secured.
Besides the literature database of Lund University and sources of the already read
literature, discussions with the tutors at Sony Ericsson and at the university were used
to guide the literature study and minimize the risk that important aspects were left out.
Also it was important to make sure that the focus was accurate for this specific subset
of software development, market and strategy concerns. All articles included in the
thesis were peer reviewed and published in well renowned academic journals.
The main target of the literature review was to establish a number of evaluation
criteria or cost drivers for software development. The search for and evaluation of the
literature was made independent of the specific cases, the goal was to get the broadest
possible picture of which cost drivers that can be relevant.
The development cost and time aspects where addressed primarily by a review article
discussing the dimensions cost, time and cycle-time by Agrawal & Chari (2007). The
market dimension, were based on recent articles that specifically aimed at answering
why customers want to use a mobile service (Wang et. al., 2006; Luarn & Lin, 2005)
as well as examining the underlying drivers of adoption. To find relevant theories
regarding the strategic issue of incorporating new services in current and future
products, well known tools from strategy studies primarily Grant (2005) was used.
Also theories deemed important by experts at Sony Ericsson and by our tutors, both
engaged in research in this particular field were incorporated.
2.4
Primary Sources
To get a good overall understanding of software development at Sony Ericsson and to
find relevant applications for the case study a few preliminary interviews were
conducted. Personnel at Sony Ericsson Research Center (SERC) and the Chief
Technology Office (CTO) were interviewed to find out about the general
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
development environment and to get the best possible referrals in the development
organization for the following interviews.
In order to extract the relevant information on each of the selected projects without
leading the interviewees more than absolutely necessary an agenda was sent out in
advance with a number of generic issues. The interview was started by a brief outline
of the goal to the master thesis and the aim of the interview. Then the question of how
the decision was made was raised, following by a discussion of their working
practises. Technical issues and market environment was also brought up if the
interviewee didn’t bring it up spontaneously. Most interviews were recorded (if we
got permission from the interviewee) to be able to go back and verify the information
and to make sure no important information were left out. As a part of the agreement
with the interviewees the recordings and transcripts will not be made public. The
interviews were conducted with a qualitative approach. The specific list of issues in
the agenda can be seen below.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
2.5
Decision criteria
General reasoning toward service development
The technology behind the service(s)
Cost of development
Cycle-time and the relation to the general platform development
Prioritization and resource allocation
Business model
Competition
Positioning (Strengths/Weaknesses)
Development curve of the product
Potential market estimation
Overall process
Innovation process
Analysis
The theoretical and practical outcome (each a list of criteria) were evaluated and
combined in the analysis as a step in the abductive method. The goal was to form a
smaller more manageable number of criteria that had both theoretical and practical
merits in this particular industry. This methodology was chosen to reduce the bias that
could be troublesome if the research starts out in either literature or interviews.
In order to construct a decision model with a manageable number of criteria, a
screening for the theoretically as well as empirically most relevant criteria must be
conducted. This will be made by discussing the pros and cons from a theoretical and
practical point of view for each of the criteria found. The selection was made in a way
that minimized the overlap in between the criteria as well. All relations in between
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
different criteria were also analysed so they could be used in formulating the model to
be more distinctive.
2.6
Model construction
Following the selection of the criteria, key performance indicators (KPIs) or drivers
for each criterion were developed. The model, drivers and also the method of
evaluating the drivers was submitted to qualitative evaluation by decision makers at
Sony Ericsson and improved upon to accommodate their opinions. By giving experts
at Sony Ericsson the opportunity to put forward arguments on which drivers that are
the best suited the model was ensured to be practical. By evaluating the proposed
criteria and drivers against the theoretical framework and the analysis regarding the
suitability of the criteria and what they were supposed to estimate, balance in the final
model was ensured.
Starting with a rather extensive model with a large number of drivers ensured that
nothing was left out; the philosophy being that it is better cut out less suitable criteria
and drivers later than creating new ones afterwards. This procedure also gave the
professionals at Sony Ericsson a larger influence over the final model and thereby
increased its usefulness.
2.7
Evaluation
In the final step of the research the model will be used for evaluating two fictive
application cases to examine if the constructed model brings usability, ease of use and
to compare the model´s verdict to experts’ opinion. This allows us to examine if the
constructed model makes an equivalent decision and if there are and deviances and
the causes of them. In this step a responsible expert will be guided through the
process and do the evaluation with our aid. Besides the outcome, the practicality of
using the model will be tested.
2.8
Summary
The overall process flow for the thesis is illustrated in figure 2.2. Although it is
important to remember that this is just a flow chart, the actual model is iterative and
uses both empirics, theory and an analytical approach to piece by piece form the
understanding of the decision process and make recommendations.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Theory
Synthesis
Litterature
study Ch. 3,4
Criteria
Empirics
Case study
Ch. 5
Analysis Ch. 6
Criteria
Decision model
creation/
refinement
Ch. 7
Refined
Criteria
Evaluation
Ch. 8
Model Final ? (Y/N)
Final
Model
Model
Implementation
Ch. 9
Evaluation
Ch. 10
Outcome
Conclusion
Ch. 11
Process
Decision
Document
Figure 2.2 - The process flow chart for the thesis work.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
3 Theory
A review of the progress in the areas of development estimation, market estimation
and the strategic issues related to launching new software based services are
necessary as a foundation for further inquires in this thesis as outlined in the method.
A summary of earlier research based on scientific papers is presented in this chapter.
3.1
3.1.1
Development Estimations
The Development Cost
Kemerer (1987) statues that practitioners have expressed concern over their inability
to estimate software development costs and that this problem will be even more
pressing as the size of software projects continue to increase. Further Leung & Fan
(2001) points out that underestimated costs results in that management approves
projects that the exceeds their budgets which leads to underdeveloped functions, poor
quality and failure to complete on time. On the other hand overestimating costs may
lead to poor resource allocation or loss of new business.
3.1.1.1 Relationship between Effort and Cost
A software development effort consists of high level design, detail design, coding and
different forms of testing. The development project cost is mostly driven by
personnel. Effort costs are commonly used as a substitute for the total cost (Agrawal
& Chari, 2007).
3.1.1.2 Analytical Methods based on Size & Function Count
Kemerer (1987) validates four estimation methods empirically to test foremost two
important inputs in these methods, the estimated size of the source code and the
number of user functions. Size is measured as the number lines in the source code
(SLOC Source Lines of Code) while the function count are a more macro level
measurement counting the number of user functions and adjusting for complexity
(Processing Complexity Adjustment or PCA) giving Function Points or FP.
The two methods using SLOC as the key input in Kemerer’s article, COCOMO
(COnstructive COst MOdel) and SLIM (Software LIfecycle Management) work by
fitting a function that describes the relationship between man months of work and the
size of the source code. Kemerer (1987) shows that there is a large need for
calibration of the estimations to accommodate for the different type of software
projects in different sectors, as the results from the SLOC estimates consistently
overestimated the resources needed with a mean of several hundred percent in the
study. Regression between estimated and actual man months gave a positive
correlation although the coefficient of determination (R2) was only 48.5 percent for
SLOC. After adjustments the coefficient of determination was 87.8 percent for SLIM
and 59.9 percent for COCOMO with cost drivers and 68.0 without cost drivers.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
For the function points the correlation was 55.3 percent and for functions counts
(unadjusted for complexity) it was 53.8 percent. Kemerer (1987) argues that function
point is not only the better indicator of man months but is also easier to estimate
before a project is initiated compared to SLOC. But it is clear that no more roughly
half of the outcome can be attributed to either of these indicators. The correlations for
the different methods are shown in table 3.1.
Method
Correlation (%)
SLOC
48.5
COCOMO
68
COCOMO w. cost drivers
59.9
SLIM
87.8
Function points
55.3
Function counts
53.8
Table 3.1 - The correlation between size measures and actual effort. (Kemerer, 1987)
Braz & Vergilio (2006) writes that estimations based on size in SLOC are dependent
on programming language. Further the function points method is a subjective
measurement and that it needs adaptations to be applied in more recent objectoriented programming technologies. As an alternative to function points Braz &
Vergilio (2006) suggests a Use Case model (Jacobson, Christerson & Vergaard,
1992), the Use Cases represent functional aspects and are useful in the early phases of
a software development project. However the Use Case Points (UCP) suffers from
limitations based on the fact that it has a very limited number of classifications and is
subjective (Braz & Vergilio, 2006). These shortcomings can be corrected as
suggested by Braz & Vergilio (2006) although the empirical evaluation of these
modified versions still showed rather bad results with miss predictions in the interval
of 10.6 – 67.9 percent, larger than the original Function Points model in this study.
The authors attribute the prediction errors in part to a too low adjustment factor due to
environmental factors.
3.1.1.3 Mature Processes
In recent research Agrawal & Chari (2007) points out that the principal benefits of
having mature processes for software development are that it seems to reduce the
impact of other factors than size on resources needed. Their analysis of 37 projects in
four companies with highly mature, CMM (Capability Maturity Model, see section
3.1.4.) level 5 processes showed that size was in fact the only significant variable
affecting effort, quality and cycle time. Process maturity also seem to increase
productivity, a study made by the Software Engineering Institute (Goldenson &
Gibson, 2003) showed a 60 percent reduction in work at one aerospace company
while another one had a 30 percent improvement in software productivity. Although
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
improvements of this magnitude are not always the case, it certainly shows that rather
large inefficiencies can exist even in project focused high tech industries.
Harter, Krishnan & Slaughter (2000) found a negative correlation between effort and
mature processes as described by the Capability Maturity Model (se chapter 3.1.4)
and effort. A one percent improvement in process maturity leads to a 0.17 percent
reduction in effort according to the study. Clark’s (2000) study on the effects of
process improvement on effort shows a 4 – 10 percent reduction in effort per level in
the Capability Maturity Model. Krishnan et. al. (2000) did however not find any
significant improvements on effort as a result of capability maturity improvements,
this could be an effect of more planning, management and training activities adding to
the overhead and thus lowering the productivity according to the authors.
3.1.1.4 Intuition based estimates
Maxwell, Wassenhove and Dutta (1999) made a study on effort estimation in
software development at the European Space Agency. They found that the practice of
guessing or using intuition has been correlated to overruns in the estimated budgets in
earlier research.
3.1.1.5 Productivity factors
Maxwell, Wassenhove and Dutta (1999) found that only [projected] size and a small
number of productivity factors were needed in order to develop fairly accurate effort
estimations. The productivity factors identified being application category, language,
required software reliability, main storage constraint and the use of modern
programming practices or software tools. For the individual company (ESA supplier
in this case) programming language and start year of the project gave the best
estimate of the productivity aspect.
3.1.1.6 Data Complexity & Structure
Data complexity is defined as the number of data elements per unit of application
functionality (Banker & Slaughter, 2000). In an effort to determine the relation
between software structure and software enhancement costs and errors Banker &
Slaughter (2000) found that higher level of structure is advantageous for complex and
volatile software limiting the cost driving effect of these two parameters. Hirota et. al.
(1994) also found a positive correlation between understandability measured as ripple
complexity (a way of measuring how interconnected the nodes in a flow graph of the
programme is) and work effort maintaining the code.
3.1.1.7 Analogies
Analogies based on older cases with similar development projects were found to be
effective in estimating effort in a study by Mukhopadhyay et. al. (1992). The
analogies outperformed several analytical methods including ones based on SLOC
and function points. Although the authors conclude that few non-correspondences is
vital to effective predictions so the method requires a number of relevant sources for
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
the analogies to be effective. Shepperd & Schofield (1997) reports similar findings
with analogies outperforming algorithmic methods in all nine datasets examined.
3.1.2
The Quality of Developed Software
3.1.2.1 Quality definition
A commonly used definition of software quality is the density of defects in the
released software program, measured as the number of defects per line of code
(Agrawal & Chari, 2007). The rather obvious size – number of defects relationship is
included in this definition. Since defects is the key measurement of quality, it is
functional quality (whether a function works or not) that is in focus, as Regnell,
Berntsson Svensson & Olsson (2008) points out this is usually the case. However
quality can also be non-functional, measuring how well a function works on a
continuous scale rather than if it works or not (Regnell, Berntsson Svensson &
Olsson, 2008)
3.1.2.2 Size
The relation between software size and quality has been found by Diaz and Sligo
(1997), Gaffney (1984) and Krishnan & Kellner (1999) among others to be
statistically relevant. Larger code obviously means a larger absolute number of errors,
but the relative number decreases.
3.1.2.3 Scheduling Pressure
In a study on deadline-setting and quality in the software development industry
Austin (2001) concludes that systematic adding of slack to project cycle-time
estimates can improve quality by adding more effort, however this comes at a price of
lower productivity. Also slack-resources can be taken for granted and tighter
deadlines can then lead to shortcut-taking that lower quality. He further states that
aggressive deadlines most project managers are not likely to meet gives better results,
the environment accepts deadline overruns and managers are more likely to admit
quality issues and take the time to correct them.
3.1.2.4 Data Complexity
Banker & Slaughter (2000) found that increased data complexity increased the
number of defects in the software, thus lowering the quality. Khoshgoftaar & Munson
(1990) states that there is a direct relationship between some complexity metrics and
the number of errors later found in the software. Regression analysis of a sample of
projects supported this statement.
3.1.2.5 Volatility
Banker & Slaughter (2000) defines volatility as the frequency of enhancement per
unit of functionality. In their study they find an adverse effect on quality from
volatility, an increased number of changes seem to increase the probability of
introducing new errors. Even if the developers get more familiar with the structure of
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the programme, this effect can’t offset the increased error rate leading to deteriorating
quality.
3.1.2.6 Process and Management Maturity
Diaz and Sligo (1997) shows an important relationship between process maturity and
quality in a study of software process improvements at Motorola. Higher quality
correlates to shorter cycle time, the projects that scored in the highest group according
to the SEI CMM model (see section 3.1.4) increased their productivity almost threefold. The aforementioned projects also shortened their cycle time by a factor 7.8
while reducing the number of defects seven-fold compared to the entry-level CMM
projects. One of the reasons behind the dramatic improvements according to the
authors is the increase in reuse of old source code and an improved reusability of new
source code written in projects at these more mature project. Another factor is the
improved ability to detect errors that would become defects while writing the code.
Krishnan & Kellner (1999) found that consistent adoption of the practises in the
Capability Maturity Model improves quality, even minor improvements leads to
significant reductions in the number of errors according to the study.
3.1.2.7 Personal Capability
Results from Krishnan and Kellner’s (1999) study on process consistency suggest that
personal capability or technical skills of the members of the project team as a
parameter for estimating quality. Krishnan et al. (2000) also found personal capability
to have significant positive correlation with quality, measuring it with the five point
Likert scale using the manager’s and two co-workers’ opinion.
3.1.2.8 Quality Performance
In their research at Sony Ericsson Regnell, Berntsson Svensson & Olsson (2008)
couples cost to non-functional quality in a continuous non-linear function stating that
software within certain limits can be optimized, but if larger improvements are
needed a large reconstruction of the product architecture might be needed. These
larger investments to improve quality are called cost-barriers and may also include
new investments in hardware. Depending on which non-functional quality parameter
that is measured (such as speed, accuracy or responsiveness) costs to reach a certain
performance can be estimated by looking at where the barriers are and how much
optimization that is feasible (Regnell, Berntsson Svensson & Olsson, 2008). Figure
3.1 shows the quality – cost relationship in the quality performance model.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Figure 3.1 - The quality performance model cost-quality relationship. (Regnell, Berntsson
Svensson & Olsson, 2008)
3.1.3
The Cycle Time
3.1.3.1 Definition
Cycle time is the time for development of the project (calendar months) and consists
of two parts; planned development time and discrepancies from the planned
development time (Agrawal & Chari, 2007).
3.1.3.2 Scheduling Pressure
Brooks (1995) states that adding manpower to a project that does not keep up with its
time budget actually makes things worse. Dysfunctional team dynamics, with
experienced software engineers working with training their new co-workers instead of
working with the delayed project are the main cause of longer cycle times. Schrage
(1995) points out that software design is easy compared with managing development.
3.1.3.3 Capacity
In Genuchten’s (1991) study on why software projects are running late, lack of
capacity was identified as the single most important factor. The development team
were simply busy pursuing other tasks such as prior overruns, unplanned maintenance
of earlier products and other activities. Therefore the new projects didn’t start on time
and couldn’t use as much resources per time-unit as planned both contributing to the
cycle time overruns.
3.1.3.4 Process Maturity
Harter, Krishnan & Slaughter (2000) reports a negative net effect of process maturity
on cycle time, even though the direct effect is positive (e.g. longer cycle time). When
including the effect of increased quality the net effect is shorter cycle times. In their
study of CMM process improvements at Motorola Diaz & Sligo (1997) found that the
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
cycle time was reduced eight times from CMM level 1 to CMM level 5. Diaz & Sligo
(1997) attribute the improvements to increased reuse of code and less rework.
3.1.4
The Capability Maturity Model
The Capability Maturity Model was developed as a support for organisations to assess
the level of their software development capabilities (Centre for Software Engineering,
2002). It contains five levels from a first ad hoc level where an individual employee’s
commitment and skills are critical to the overall success and few controls are
implemented to a fifth optimising level that focus on defect prevention and
continuous improvement. For each level a number of Key Process Areas have been
defined that has to be addressed before moving on to the next level. A schematic
figure of the CMM can be found in figure 3.2.
Level 5
Optimising
Level 4
Managed
Level 3
Defined
Level 2
Repeatable
Level 1
Initial
Defect Prevention
Technology Change Management
Process Change Management
Software Quality Management
Quantitative Process Management
Organisation Process Focus
Organisation Process Definition
Integrated Software Management
Software Product Engineering
Peer Reviews
Training Programme
Inter-group co-ordination
Software Requirements Management
Software Project Planning
Software Project Tracking
Software Quality Assurance
Software Configuration Management
Software Subcontract Management
No Key Process Areas at Level 1
Key Process Areas
Figure 3.2 – The structure of the Capability Maturity Model. (Centre for Software
Engineering, 2002)
3.2
Market & Usage Estimations
Wang et. al. (2006) points out that even if a service is available and given
considerable investments there is no guarantee it will be, or to which extension it will
be adopted by the consumers. Wang et. al. (2006) and earlier related research tries to
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
point out which factors that affects consumers intent of using mobile services. The
most widely used theories concerning the acceptance of information services are the
Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB).
3.2.1
The Technology Acceptance Model
Davis et. al. (1989) describes the TAM as a model based on the theory of reasoned
action (TRA), a well researched intention model used to explain a wide variety of
behaviours (Ajzen & Fishbein 1980), meant to explain computer usage behaviour.
Basically it uses TRA as a theoretical base for the linking of two beliefs, perceived
ease of use and perceived usefulness and user’s attitudes, intentions and actual
adoption of computer technology. A figure of the model as presented by Davis et. al.
(1989) is presented in figure 3.3.
Perceived
Ease of Use
External
Variables
Attitude
Toward Using
Behavioural
Intention to Use
Actual
System Use
Perceived
Usefulness
Figure 3.3 - The Technology Acceptance Model. (Davis et. al., 1989)
3.2.2
The Theory of Planned Behaviour
The theory of planned behaviour is derived from the theory of reasoned action and its
extensions, in order to form a theory that can predict behavioural goals (Beck &
Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen, 1985; Ajzen & Madden, 1986). The individual’s intention to
behave in a certain way is central to the model, as intentions are assumed to capture
the motivational factors that influence the behaviour. It captures both how hard an
individual are willing to try and how much effort they plan for. The model describes
the intention by three determinants attitude, subjective norm and perceived
behavioural control, generally a more favourable attitude and subjective norm and a
greater perceived behavioural control leads to a stronger individual intention to
perform the behaviour (Beck & Ajzen, 1991).
Intentions are then viewed as immediate antecedents to actual behaviours (actions),
but other factors such as availability of the necessary opportunities and resources.
Together the intentions and non-motivational factors (resources and opportunities)
represent the individual’s actual control of behaviour. The theory deals with
perceived control rather than actual, when the behaviour is relatively unknown to the
individual or when requirements or resources have changed the perception will be
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
rather inaccurate (Beck & Ajzen, 1991). A figure of the theory of planned behaviour
can be seen in figure 3.4.
Attitude
toward the
behaviour
Subjective
norm
Intention
Intention
Behaviour
Perceived
behavioural
control
Figure 3.4 - The theory of Planned Behaviour. (Beck & Ajzen, 1991)
3.2.3
Value creation through mobile services
In a study of Finnish consumers’ attitudes towards mobile services Anckar & D’Incau
(2002) states that even though the subject of predicting adoption of mobile services
have been widely researched and predictions have been presented both in academic,
technology and business press the predictions have been highly contradictory. Many
of the optimistic studies have predictions that rely on the penetration of mobile
devices (primarily mobile handsets), but Anckar & D’Incau (2002) argues that the
popularity of mobile commerce for instance, as the penetration rate of computers
aren’t related directly to the adoption of E-commerce. Ropers (2001) points out that,
currently, internet relies on PCs as access devices, which limits usage to people that
afford and know how to operate a PC. If E-business based on mobile devices is easier
to operate and a larger number of people are familiar with the devices, especially
older people and people in third world countries then penetration could be larger and
more rapid. Anckar & D’Incau (2002) further points out that many early investments
in internet commerce have had a technocist focus neglecting the customer orientation
and other factors influencing the purchase behaviour.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
In their framework Anckar & D’Incau (2002) stipulates that the winners in mobile
commerce services will be the applications where the wireless users are offered an
undeniable benefit in comparison to the wired service and the physical service. They
break down the value of the wireless channel in two parts: one that relates to the fact
the device is wireless independent of the kind of service, wireless value, and one that
relates to the services being offered in a mobile device, mobile value. Benefits
identified in wireless value include convenience, cost savings, advantages to
consumers that lack proficiency with computers. Tang & Veijalainen (2001) says that
convenience and efficiency in performing simple transactions e.g. wireless value is
likely to be the main driver for mobile commerce.
The mobile value includes five elements; a time-critical arrangement, spontaneous
decisions and needs, entertainment needs, efficiency ambitions and mobile situations.
The results of the study (Tang & Veijalainen, 2001) shows that mobile services that
offer mobile value in more than one of the five elements are likely to constitute the
core of mobile commerce. Services that meet time-critical and spontaneous needs
were recognised as the most valuable by the participants. The analytical framework
is presented in figure 3.5.
Anckar & D’Incau’s (2002) study shows that limited technical skills significantly
reduce the willingness to test mobile commerce services while perceived cost does
not. They also conclude that prior experience with e-commerce on PCs increases the
willingness to use mobile services supporting the theory that mobile commerce does
not expand total e-commerce. The customers seem to see mobile internet and
commerce primarily as a supplement to their computer based wired counterparts. Age
was also a factor although the older age groups showed a surprisingly high interest
younger people are likely to form the key consumer segments for mobile services. It
should also be pointed out that this study tests a mass market approach so niche
applications should be tested in their respective market segment, also Finland is not
representative for the rest of the world, internet penetration rates for example are far
higher than in other countries.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Figure 3.5 - The framework for value creation through mobile commerce. (Anckar & D’incau,
2002)
3.2.4
Prediction of consumer intentions of using mobile services
Luarn & Lin (2005) suggest that the behavioural intention to use mobile software
depends on the factors self-efficacy, perceived financial resource, perceived
usefulness, perceived ease of use and perceived credibility in a TAM and TPBderived model in a study of the adoption of mobile banking. Wang et. al. (2006)
expands this theory to mobile services in general.
The credibility factor is introduced since earlier research has shown a positive
influence on behavioural intentions for services that are perceived as free from
security and privacy threats (Luarn & Lin, 2005; Wang et. al., 2003). Self-efficacy is
suggested to both enhance the perceived ease of use and the behaviour intention of
using it. The perceived financial resources factor is suggested to increase the
behavioural intention to use, the perceived usefulness and the perceived ease of use of
the service (Wang et. al., 2006). Wang et. al’s (2006) model is presented in figure
3.6, all arrows represent statistically significant correlations. In total 69 percent of the
behavioural intention was explained by the model, Wang et. al. (2006) also concludes
that perceived financial resources and perceived credibility had a stronger effect than
the traditional TAM variable perceived ease of use. Luarn & Lin (2005) explains 82
percent of the behavioural intentions in their study, although it’s limited to mobile
banking.
Further Wang et. al. (2006) suggests that these findings could be used as input to
create a business model that attracts new customers through low costs. Customers
who have overcome the financial barriers are then likely to continue using services
from the same provider and try other more expensive services. Generally Luarn & Lin
(2005) concludes that the trust-based perceived credibility and the two perceived
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
behavioural control factors do not only help companies to construct more useraccepted services, it also gives insight in how to promote these services.
Figure 3.6 - Wang et al’s (2006) model for prediction of adoption of mobile services. Luarn &
Lin’s (2005) model is missing the correlations between financial resource and usefulness and
credibility and usefulness otherwise they are identical.
3.2.5
Quality Performance
Regnell, Berntsson Svensson & Olsson (2008) links non-functional quality to
customer benefit in a model where benefit ranges from useless to excessive. A certain
quality of relevant parameters is needed for the consumer to feel that is beneficial to
use the software. At a higher level of quality the product starts to differentiate from
competition and at extreme levels of quality improvements no longer has any
practical implications to the customers.
In the spectrum the useless-useful breakpoint and the competitive-excessive
breakpoint improvements in quality rapidly improves the experience. However it’s
crucial that the right parameters or indicators of quality are used, depending on
market segment, use case and hardware (Regnell, Berntsson Svensson & Olsson,
2008). Figure 3.7 shows the quality level – benefit graph.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Figure 3.7 - The quality performance model’s quality level – benefit graph. (Regnell,
Berntsson Svensson & Olsson, 2008)
3.3
3.3.1
Strategic & Business Model Concerns
Innovation
Along with the development of fast-changing technology intensive markets the
understanding of the term innovation has radically changed among leading actors.
Today few players need to be reminded of the substance /relevance of innovation and
as being an essential factor for staying competitive in the business; the question is no
longer if companies should work with it, but how. Innovation can be divided into two
elements which state situations in which innovation opportunities are more likely to
be identified. These opportunities can be categorized as shown below: (Drucker,
1998)
Internal (within a company or industry):
Unexpected occurrences
Incongruities
Process needs
Industry and market changes
External (outside a company and its extended social and intellectual surroundings)
Demographic changes
Changes in perception
New knowledge
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Drucker (1998) states that being successful in the search for innovation is more about
applying the appropriate tools and being diligent, committed and persistent
(engaging in disciplined work) rather than having an entrepreneurial character.
A common opinion among executives based on the hypothesis that all organizations
face common barriers when developing new services, states that the innovation rate
can be improved by easily searching outside the company for ideas and best practice.
In real life however, the nature of challenges linked with innovation differ from
company to company creating a situation where adapting general recommendations to
a great extent can be associated with risk and in some cases lead to destruction. This
fact enlighten the importance of a company actually developing their own model for
building innovation instead of importing best practice into the company regardless the
nature of the company. (Hansen & Birkinshaw, 2007)
3.3.1.1 Successful innovation
Being successful in creating innovations takes more than adopting the latest advices
and more important, innovation must be seen upon as a comprehensive phenomenon
rather than a single part process. For example a greater effort focusing in how to
generate ideas will not alone be helpful in the long term if the overall system
innovation process is ineffective. Instead a company must reflect on their present
processes for creating innovations and from these pin down the company’s unique
challenges and expand paths to tackle theses individual issues. One way of obtaining
an effective perspective of the innovation process is by using the frame work “The
Innovation Value Chain”. (Hansen & Birkinshaw, 2007)
3.3.1.2 The Innovation Value Chain
With the Innovation Value Chain framework Hansen & Birkinshaw (2007) describes
innovation as a chronological process which includes three phases; idea generation,
idea conversion and the diffusion of developed concepts.
For each phase managers must take action on six significant tasks, internal sourcing,
cross-unit sourcing, external sourcing, selection, development and companywide
spread of the idea. All six of these constitutes a link in the overall chain, some of
these tasks the company might fulfil with excellence, becoming the company’s
strongest links in the chain and some task might be hard fulfilling, making them to a
weak link. The framework supports executives in their decision regarding which
practices to apply in order to improve performance attached to innovation as well as
help them to identify the actual critical part of the chain that needs to be improved.
The hardest part in the innovation process, characterized by the relevant model is
usually described as phase number two, were decision regarding the idea generated
has to be done. (Hansen & Birkinshaw, 2007)
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
3.3.1.3 Idea generation
To achieve quality in the creation of innovation most executives agree that the
process should be initiated by a couple of good ideas, the question is however where
(in which environment) and how to best catch these ideas. Due to the fact that
mangers often believe themselves to have a sense about what’s lying ahead, a natural
first step is to start by looking for trends, ideas and inspiration inside the own
organization. They soon observe that the ideas with the best potential are created
when pieces of inspirations are put together such as when people collaborate cross
functional or when external parts are screened for ideas. Combining experience and
knowledge from different units within a company through cross unit collaboration is
effective but is by far however organized without difficulties, facing complexities
such as decentralized organizational structures as well as geographical spreading.
Enterprises furthermore have to consider whether an adequate amount of high-quality
ideas are sourced exterior to the company and even exterior to the industry, such as
screening knowledge and experiences of competitors, universities, entrepreneurs,
investors, inventors, suppliers, customers and end users. Not taking part in this kind
of information can end up in missing opportunities and lower innovation productivity.
As an example Sony can be mentioned, a company which during the 1980´s had a
striking track record developing radical product innovations such as the Walkman and
PlayStation. During the 1990´s the company however suffered from engineers
becoming gradually more narrow-minded developing a mindset dominated by the
“not invented here syndrome”. Sony missed opportunities related to early
development of flat-screen TVs and MP3 and instead developed less successful
products such as cameras etc. (Hansen & Birkinshaw, 2007)
3.3.1.4 Idea conversion
Generating a great number of ideas is not enough to create successful innovation,
what’s even more important is how and which process the company uses to further
develop the new born ideas, which ideas should money be spent on and which should
be killed. Lack of efficient selection methods as well as mechanism guarantying
financial support will transform the most promising ideas into organizational
bottlenecks. Other idea killers are tight budgets and conservative thinking which often
affect the employees resulting in the number of ideas quickly decreasing. While all
ideas in the end must be revenue generating insufficient commercial ability is
announced as another great threat. It is therefore essential to put accurate resources on
the projects making sure people have the time and effort needed. The criteria of an
idea’s overall strategic fit towards the company must also be taken into account.
(Hansen & Birkinshaw, 2007)
3.3.1.5 Idea diffusion
Idea diffusion concerns the final part in the process of commercializing an idea.
Significant stakeholders including customers as well as actors within the organization
must support and spread the product through selected channels to reach attractive
target groups and thereby getting buy in. (Hansen & Birkinshaw, 2007)
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
3.3.2
Components of Technology-Market Linking
To be successful in the work of Technology Market linking it’s crucial to first be
aware of problems that may occur as well as to realize what that linking includes.
According to research done on the subject technology-market linking contains a
process and a content component. The process side entails the creation of new
knowledge regarding the product and the market. Henderson & Clark (1990) state that
non routine innovations require new “architectures” in which trendsetters break out of
current procedures and know-how to reconfigure elements of design and procedure
into an innovative framework. Freeman (1982) refers to product innovation as a
“complex coupling” between market needs and technologies. There are a number of
challenges in linking technological and market opportunities since choices concerning
design options etcetera have to be addressed, each pushing the outcome in different
directions. Another challenge may constitute of the fact that the market is brand new
making it difficult to verify who the most likely clients are and what this target group
in fact want to consume (Clark, 1985).
In terms of content, linking implies the gathering and bringing together a range of
explicit insights. Research claims that successful new product developers have more
knowledge in users’ applications, market segments, technological trends and
distribution systems (Dougherty, 1990). Urban & von Hippel (1988) implies that
developers establish key trends in both the area of technology and market, and then
seek out “lead users” who can identify feasible design specifications. The integration
of R&D and marketing facilitate both the evaluation of commercial capability as well
as the optimization of design characteristics. Knowledge required for new invention is
hence multi-levelled, multi-faceted and detailed. (Bonnet, 1986)
3.3.3
Business models
To fulfil the overall goal of a product or service the developed opportunity has to be
linked to a business model describing how the service can return an acceptable cash
flow. Although the literature reveals an increasing highlighting concerning the
significance of business models there has been strong requirement on how to explain
and define what a business model should include. (Kallio, Tinnilä, Tseng, 2006)
Three types of business models have been classified in the literature by Osterwalder
et al., 2002: revenue and product-based (Rappa, 2000), business actor and networkbased (Trimmers, 1998), and marketing-based (Petrovic et al., 2001).
The definition of a business model differs depending on author and according to
Rappa (2000) a business model can be described as the means by which a company
makes money. Referring to Amit & Zott (2000), a business model is “the manner in
which a firm coordinates and combines the flow of information, products and services
among parties to enable transactions”. Amit & Zott (2000) identify the substance of
value creation (such as activities, branding, customer service and reach) as well as the
revenue logic.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
To be able to understand the underlying drivers of a business model modern literature
on defining business models have focused on breaking down the model into smaller
components. According to Osterwalder et al. (2002) a business model consist of four
components: the services a firm offers, the infrastructure and network of partners
needed to create value, the relationship the firm creates with its customers, and the
financial characteristics.
3.3.3.1 Future business model in the mobile handset industry
With the intensive growth of customers in the mobile handset industry, at current
exceeding 1 billion users, there is no doubt that the future challenge within the mobile
telephony is to be found within data communication services. Defining this future
scope also brings a large number of challenges connected to software engineering,
service evolutions, user acceptance management as well as engineering of appropriate
business models. As the mobile technology progressively have been integrated into
the everyday life, contributing for an essential part of communications, the demand
from end users also increase with time, creating a large pressure on the software
engineers. As customers demand content and interface more similar to the PC-internet
interface the software engineers struggle with the trade off between satisfactory web
experiences and the existing constraints regarding resources. (Yamakami, 2005)
The future business models within the handset industry are constructed to bring
revenue from data communication services. Limitations existing today can be
identified in limited display size, user interface restrictions and factors constraining,
battery life, memory and CPU power. (Yamakami, 2005)
To be able to develop tomorrow’s mobile services it is important to fully understand
and analyze the past development within the industry. The evolution within the
mobile internet service is exclusive due to the fact that it is determined by a
combination of the hardware, platform and content. Two main characteristics of
relevance, which both have had impact on the development can be identified when
analyzing the evolution, these are platform evolution over a long span of time as well
as relations between the three stakeholders; carriers, end-users and content providers
across a period of time. (Yamakami, 2005) Referring to past studies (Yamakami,
2002) the development of business models has followed a pattern where enhanced
programming features along with improved dialogue towards end users as well as
hardware, based on media features, appear in turns driving the evolution forward as
shown by figure 3.8 below.
26
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Feature driven
Web, Mail, Tel
Hardware driven
Multimedia
integration
Java, SSL
Color display
Camera
Figure 3.8 - The mobile service evolution. (Yamakami, 2005)
Each momentum has duration of 6 to 18 month which means it requires significant
education cost to implement a wide scale Internet service evolution. This fact creates
a situation where the handset features are disclosed to the content providers in
advance. A critical factor determining the pace of evolution is user participation
which plays a significant role in the refinement of the use process defining best-fit
content. The creation of top-quality content therefore requires a certain amount of
time. This time period should be used for feedback concerning the content and
research regarding the next phase evolution. The four most common business models
for software platform development can be summarized in the following number of
patterns (Yamakami, 2005):
Intellectual Properties:
This category is represented by the intellectual property
protected assets such as image encoding and security.
Bundling:
Bundling is a well used technique for easy integration of
applications and services.
Convergence:
The convergence business model applies a strategy using
the existing lock-in effects
Inside-client integration: Describes the strategy to take advantage of the know-how
and porting pains.
Yamakami (2005) suggests a few new business models applicable in the near future
that is highly dependent on the potential trend-shifts involving software engineering.
Below the models likely to be used are listed:
Open source business model: Among strong candidates for the upcoming operating
systems regarding 3G handsets Symbian and Linux can be identified, which is a
challenge that mobile handset software platform suppliers need to cope with.
End-to-end IP application business model: The author states that applications like
Skype, also known as end-to-end applications may well substitute some of the
27
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
network infrastructures. Though this technique offers great possibilities wirelesstelephony requires intensive investments and completely diverse business models.
System-in-chip business model: The suggestion is that chip-bundle strategy is useful
to penetrate global markets by engaging a deal with chip vendors without mutual
deals with different transporters and retailers.
3.3.4
Branding
The mobile handset industry is often described as high technology businesses were
actors frequently push each other by developing state of the art technology and
thereby constantly reinventing the industry. The essential question which still remains
and therefore need to be addressed to be able to form future strategies is however;
what does technology mean to consumers when they can’t use most of the features on
the handsets? Clarifying and enlighten the consumers of the services and belonging
benefits and usefulness are put on telecom player’s marketing functions, explaining
the relevance of assigning the marketing function the sufficient amount of resources.
Still research discloses that providers within the telecommunications industry fail in
effectively communicating to consumers, resulting in potential revenue lose.
(Cansfield, 2007)
A great number of studies have been conducted concerning both successful and
unsuccessful cases to be able to determine the probability of developing successful
products/services. (The term successful will in this thesis be referred to as products
which in the end generate profits and thereby increase the firms overall long term
result.) According to these studies approximately 50-75 percent of all products
developed are unsuccessful. The result is affected by the character of business,
product type, technological complexity and customer maturity. The essential is
though that the probability of failure is higher than the probability of succeeding
when developing a product or service. (Karlsson, 2003)
When addressing the market it is critical to apply an appropriate strategy to obtain the
aimed market position. The choice of strategy has an impact on which channels the
company should use for market communication and affect how the company wants to
be recognised among potential and existing customers as well as determents what
core values the company wants to communicate. By using market differentiation a
company can apply parameters as design, performance and quality to differentiate its
products towards competitors and thereby increase the perceived value among
customers compared to opponents. To further reach out and increase brand
recognition on the market it is central that the enterprise strive to position its products
in a preferable way. The market position determines how the products are recognized
by customers and what impact the brand has in people’s perception in contrast to
competitors. (Kotler, 1999) According to Ries & Trout (2001) primarily three
strategies for market positioning are applied, these are first to strengthen the brands
current position towards customers perception and second to find new market
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
positions by filling gabs in the market. The final strategy is to try to reposition the
competitors through attacking.
3.3.5
Network externalities
Network externalities are defined as the phenomena where the utility that an
individual user gains from using the service increases with the number of consumers
using the service. (Katz & Shapiro, 1985) Due to the growing relevance of emerging
information technologies the understanding of the underlying causes and parameters
which influence their adoption has become an important question (Venkatesh &
Morris, 2000; Green & Hevner, 2000; Luo et al., 2000; Van Slyke et al., 2002) The
drivers of adoption, increasing the network, therefore include the features of the
chosen technology as well as the network characteristics. (Strader, Ramaswami,
Houle, 2007)
According to Katz and Shapiro three sources of network externalities can be
identified, describing one source as the direct physical effect between the number of
consumer and the value of the service. (The value of a mobile handset to one user
increases as more handsets are purchased and exploited by others). An additional
source is described as an indirect effect where the utility of a product increases with
the number of clients for the reason that the quality of the service is higher or the fact
that there are more complementary products available. (Katz & Shapiro, 1986; Farrell
& Saloner, 1987). (As the user base for a product or service increases there should be
a consequential growth in compatible software which adds additional value to the
hardware). The third source of network externalities can be found in environments
where increasing sales of a product or service creates superior quality and ease of use
of aftermarket services related to the product. (The greater the number of customers
using a certain product, the greater the probability is that a service for the product will
be supplied).
3.3.6
Prioritization of Development Projects and Requirements
The outcome of which features in a product that will be found relevant by the
consumers is unknown before the product’s development. A way of estimating which
features that should be included and which should be dismissed is therefore necessary
in order to have a satisfactory list of requirements at the start of development.
Regnell, Karlsson & Höst (2003) propose a decision matrix (figure 3.9) that has four
fields in two cases a correct decision is made (proceed with a good requirement,
dismiss a bad requirement) in the other two cases the wrong decision is made.
29
Positive
A bad service
is developed
A good
service is
developed
Negative
Decision
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
A bad service
is not
developed
A good
service is not
developed
Negative
Positive
Actual outcome
Figure 3.9 - Four different outcomes of a development decision. (Regnell, Karlsson & Höst,
2003)
To handle a large number of ideas on new features or other requirements the authors
propose a screening and an evaluation before implementation to improve the ratio
between correct and incorrect decisions, these steps obviously need to be performed
in a time-efficient way to be beneficial. Higher ratio of good requirements to bad
requirements initially and/or better decision making in screening gives a better ratio
in the final requirements (Regnell, Karlsson & Höst, 2003). The process from
elicitation to release is shown in figure 3.10.
Increased ratio of good requirements/features
Elicitation
Screening
Evaluation
Construction/Release
Dismissed requirements
Figure 3.10 - The requirement selection process. (Regnell, Karlsson & Höst, 2003)
3.3.6.1 The Analytic Hierarchy Process
Karlsson et. al. (1998) describes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision
making method based on the comparison of all unique requirement pairs, giving one
on them higher priority on a sliding scale. AHP and other techniques based on relative
comparison have been found to be both faster and more reliable than absolute
measurements (Karlsson, 1996). One major drawback with the technique is that the
30
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
number of comparisons needed grows with the square of the number of requirements,
making work with large number of requirements tedious.
However since all requirement pairs are compared the method allows for internal
consistency checks. If requirement A is found more important than B and C more
important than A then C should be more important than B otherwise it would be
difficult to draw any conclusions from the pair-wise comparison. If the data is
consistent a relative priority of each requirement can be calculated.
Introduction of hierarchy levels to the AHP with the most general requirements on top
and the more specific below can reduce the number of requirement pairs needed to be
evaluated (Karlsson et. al., 1998). Another way of minimizing effort in the AHP is to
use a minimal spanning tree meaning that all redundancy is removed and minimal
interconnectivity is used to produce the prioritization using only n-1 comparisons for
n requirements.
3.3.6.2 Bubblesort
Bubblesort compares two requirements and prioritizes them without saying anything
on how big the difference is (Karlsson et. al. 1998). If the higher priority requirement
is above the lower priority requirement in the list they are switched, when all
comparisons are made the requirements are listed in an ordinal scale from the least
prioritized to the most. Bubblesort uses the same number of comparisions as the AHP
but uses easier determinations and the sorting of the requirements is automatic
(Karlsson et. al. 1998).
3.3.6.3 Priority Groups
In some development projects there is possible to divide requirements into different
groups, typically high, medium and low priority to avoid having to prioritize between
low and high priority requirements with a high effort method like AHP. An ordinal
scale approach can then be used to prioritize within the groups if not all requirements
in the group can be implemented (Karlsson et. al., 1998).
3.3.7
Industry Analysis
In order to determine market size and growth of the service and the service (software)
developer’s ability to appropriate from the value created some insights in the industry
structure and environment is necessary. Grant (2005) summarizes the key models in
the area of industry analysis.
3.3.7.1 PEST-analysis
Grant (2005) states that an analysis of political, economic, social and technological
factors (PEST-analysis) related to customers, suppliers and competitors (e.g. the
industry environment) is vital for the ability to estimate future trends and act in a
strategically effective way. Figure 3.11 presents the model.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Technology
Social structure
Goverment and politics
The Industry
Environment
•Suppliers
•Competitors
•Customers
The national/
international economy
The natural environment
Demographics
Figure 3.11 - The PEST-framework. (Grant, 1995)
3.3.7.2 Five Forces of Competition Framework
The five forces of competition framework was developed by Porter (1980) as a way
to estimate the profitability of an industry balancing the power of buyers, suppliers,
substitutes, possible entrants and existing competitors. Brandenburger & Nalebuff
(1995) introduced a sixth force in their value net, suppliers of complementary
products (complementors). The structure of the model and important determinants for
each force is presented in figure 3.12 (Grant, 2005).
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Supplier Power
Price sensitivity
•Cost of product relative to total cost
•Product differentiation
•Competition among suppliers
Bargaging power
•Size and concentration of producers relative to buyers
•Supplier’s switching costs
•Supplier’s information
•Supplier’s ability to forward integrate
Threat of Entry
•Economies of scale
•Absolute cost advantages
•Capital requirements
•Product differentiation
•Access to distribution channels
•Goverment and legal barriers
•Relation with established producers
Industry Rivalry
•Concentration
•Diversity of competitors
•Product differentiation
•Excess capacity and exit barriers
•Cost conditions
Threat of Substitutes
•Buyers propensity to substitute
•Relative prices and performance of
substitutes
Complementary Suppliers
•Closeness of complementarity
•Bargaging power
Buyer Power
Same as supplier.
Figure 3.12 - The expanded Five Forces of Competition model including complementary
suppliers. (Grant, 2005)
3.3.8
Disruptive Technologies
Bower & Christensen (1995) presents a theory on disruptive technologies that tries to
explain why many industry leading corporations dismiss upcoming technologies that
later becomes the dominant industry standard as irrelevant, inferior or simply too
small to make an impact in their revenues. The basic question is why an inferior
technology can be chosen over the current better performing technology and secondly
how to discover these technologies in time in order to stay competitive. It should be
noted that the authors make a distinction between disruptive technologies and
emerging technically superior technologies according the prevailing performance
metrics, which are viewed as the natural evolution that leading corporations adopt and
pursue. See figure 3.13 for a figure of the theory.
33
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Disruptive Technologies
1,6
1,4
Relative performance
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Time
Incumbent tech
User requirements
Disruptive tech
Figure 3.13 - The disruptive technology eventually reaches the required level, starting to
compete with the dominant technology in the market segment and switching consumer
preferences to other factors such as price or other performance indicators.
Bower & Christensen argues that when performance has risen to a satisfying level,
the consumer’s focus shifts to other aspects such as price or other performance
dimensions. Their example of the hard drive industry states that absolute storage
capacity or cost per storage capacity, the traditional performance indicators, wasn’t
enough. Given that their basic storage needs were met, consumers wanted drives with
smaller physical size, weight and energy consumption (Bower & Christensen, 1995).
In a more recent study on the matter of disruptive technologies Adner (2002) tries to
explain under which circumstances disruptive technologies emerge, he argues that
absolute cost rather than cost relative to performance is the decisive factor given that
the performance demand is being met. Thus unit cost and not size or energy
consumption should have been what made de industry switch to smaller drive sizes as
soon as they reached acceptable storage capacities.
34
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
In order to spot these disruptive Adner (2002) presents a model where technologies
that are initially isolated starts to overlap each other as performance rises and a
technology from another market segment provides that requested performance of
several segments. He argues that if one of the technologies overlap the other while the
other doesn’t combined with a unit price advantage makes the overlapping technology
disruptive. If the overlap is mutual the technologies tend to converge and if no
overlap emerges they will continue to be isolated. To illustrate the asymmetry Adner
(2002) suggests that a notebook computer satisfies a desktop computer user to a much
larger extent that the other way around, therefore notebooks could be an example of a
disruptive technology replacing desktop computers.
Adner (2002) argues that the net utility of increased performance decreases as the
performance increases hence the room for differentiation and a price premium from
still having the highest performance of the incumbents quickly diminishes.
3.4
Summary
The literature review helped finding a quite large number of drivers of cost, market
adoption and strategy, a list of the drivers are presented in list 3.1. It’s important to
recognise that all these drivers can be relevant for evaluating software service
development projects. Even though building a decision model using all these drivers
is theoretically possible, the model would be too difficult and effort intensive to ever
be of any practical use. To find the most relevant criteria for the handset industry and
the network based services this thesis focuses at, real world cases of old and current
development projects at Sony Ericsson are used.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Development Estimation
Effort
Quality
Cycle Time
Size
Size
Scheduling Pressure
Function Count
Scheduling Pressure
Capacity
Mature Processes
Data Complexity
Process Maturity
Intuition
Volatility
Productivity Factors
Process & Management Maturity
Data Complexity
Personal Capability
Analogies
Quality Performance
Market & Usage Estimation Strategic & Business Model Concerns
Perceived Ease of Use
Innovation
Perceived Usefulness
Technology-Market linking
Mobile Value
Business model
Wireless Value
Prioritization
Self Afficacy
Network externalities
Perceived Credibility
Branding
Perceived Financial Resource
Industry analysis
Quality Performance
Disruptive technologies
List 3.1 - The criteria for evaluation of software projects found in the literature study.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
4 The Mobile Handset Industry
The market, competitive environment, trends in usage and market segment sizes are
all important in deciding on which services that is to be developed. By using two
rather common industry assessments methods and some data on current market
shares clarity can be brought to these issues and facilitate the selection of the most
prominent criteria for the decision model.
4.1
4.1.1
PEST Assessment
Political
Some nations such as Finland limit the coupling of handset hardware and network
subscriptions by legal means (Svennarp, interview 2008-03-04). The European Union
has also put forward legislation to regulate the rates of international voice calls and is
contemplating a similar measure on data transfers (Sliva, 2007).
4.1.2
Economic
According to Nokia’s report for the fourth quarter 2007 the total market volume for
mobile phones during the quarter were 336 million units, with an estimated growth of
16 % year to year. Sony Ericsson estimates the total market volume for 2007 to more
than 1.1 billion devices; Nokia’s estimate is practically the same at 1.14 billion units
(Nokia, 2008).
A tendency of higher growth in the emerging markets compared to the established
markets is a shifting demand to entry level low cost phones (Accenture, 2006). This
has resulted in a decrease in average selling prices for the manufacturers. Sony
Ericsson has seen the average selling price falling from 182 € in 2002 to 146 € in
2006 and 125 € in 2007 (Sony Ericsson, 2008; Ericsson, 2007), Nokia have seen a
similar development going from 153 € in 2002 to 82 € in 2007 (Nokia, 2003; 2008).
A compilation of statistics from the major manufacturers’ annual reports shows that
the industry has enjoyed a growth of between 12 and 44 percent annually since 2002
based on the number of units sold (Ericsson, 2007; Sony Ericsson, 2008; Nokia,
2003-2008; Motorola, 2003-2008, Samsung, 2003-2008, LG, 2003-2008). The
number of handsets sold worldwide annually can be seen in figure 4.1. In fiscal year
2002 Nokia reports that China accounted for 2802 million € in sales compared to
three major western countries (UK, Germany & US) which accounted for 9625
million € in sales. Four years later the same numbers are 4913 million € for China and
7300 million € for the three western countries, India not even accounting for 500
million € in 2002 were practically tied with the US for second place at 2713 million €
in 2006 (Nokia 2003; 2007). Even if these numbers only apply for Nokia it gives a
clear picture of the transformation of the industry. Figure 4.2 shows Nokia’s total
sales in these countries from 2002 to 2006.
37
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
1200
50%
1000
40%
800
30%
600
20%
400
10%
200
0
Annual grwoth
(Million Units)
Number of Handsets sold per year 2002 - 2007
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Figure 4.1 - Total worldwide handset sales. Solid line represents the number of units sold, the
dashed year-to-year growth. (Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Samsung, LG and Nokia 2003-2008)
The transformation can also be shown in macro economic statistics (World Bank,
2008; US Federal Reserve, 2008). Converted to Euro-currency the economy in the
three major western countries actually declined one percent in the period 2002 –
2006, in the same time span India & China grew 37 percent cumulatively as can be
seen in figure 4.3.
Although still growing strongly it’s inevitable that growth slows as the industry
matures, and lately the growth rates have come down less than 20 percent also the
trend points downwards. Accenture (2005) points out that the handset industry is
likely to be more cost focused and consolidate after 2008, even if further convergence
of devices can offset this time point.
38
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Nokia's Revenue in two different markets
2002 - 2006
10000
9000
8000
Million €
7000
United States, United
Kingdom & Germany
6000
5000
China & India
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
21 000
3 000
17 500
2 500
14 000
2 000
10 500
1 500
7 000
China & India (€ billion)
Western (€ billion)
GDP data for 2002 - 2006
1 000
2002
2003
US, UK & Germany
2004
2005
2006
China & India
Figure 4.2, 4.3. It’s clear that the revenue from developing & newly industrialized countries is
becoming increasingly important in the mobile handset sector (Nokia, 2003 – 2007) and in the
world economy. (World Bank, 2008)
39
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
4.1.3
Sociocultural
According to an industry analysis by Accenture emphasising total cost of ownership
not only the purchase value needs to be lowered but also the costs of using services in
order to increase market size and total revenue by tapping in to potential new
customers (Accenture, 2006). In these low income countries the potential new
customers views the handset primarily as a status symbol, therefore flashy but low
cost features and functionality can appeal especially to the youth segment of these
markets (Accenture, 2006).
On the other end of the spectrum, the high segment is expected to grow by handset
replacements driven by adoption of more advanced services. Accenture (2006) also
predicts an increased standardization and an unbundling of hardware and software
decreasing development of handset specific applications and giving the consumer an
increased number of customization alternatives.
On the other hand one could argue that only two cellular communications services
ever have become mainstream, circuit switched (regular) voice calls and short
message services (SMS). Even though technologies such as instant messaging, video
calls and multimedia messaging services (MMS) have been technologically available
for quite some time they have failed to become socioculturally mainstream
(Bengtsson, interview 2008-02-11)
4.1.4
Technological
Implementation of new technologies disrupting the operators’ traditional business
model of assigning a cost per time unit and distance of calls by using Voice over
Internet Protocol (VoIP) would lower cost of using voice service but at the same time
force the operators to move to a flat rate business model lowering their revenue which
risks alienating them. Other new techniques such as Instant Messaging (IM) and
Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) hotspot capability for both data and voice
services further lowers or even bypasses the operators (Accenture, 2006).
In another study by Accenture (2005) predicts that the handset industry eventually
will become like any other consumer electronics industry, the mature markets will
then be driven by branding, device design and user interface rather than advanced
software and operating systems. Although software will become increasingly
important to differentiation steering away from the earlier hardware focus and
allowing increase intelligence and usability in the devices.
4.2
4.2.1
Five Forces Assessment
Competition
Sony Ericsson delivered 103 million handsets or slightly over 9 percent of the world
market last year (Sony Ericsson, 2008). Market leader Nokia had a market share of
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
about 40 percent. Both these companies as well as the industry as a whole experience
falling average selling prices as a result of that more volume shifts over to emerging
markets. Sony Ericsson traditionally has a stronger position in the higher priced
segments with an average selling price of about 125 € compared to Nokia’s 82 €,
Sony Ericsson has a market share of 39 percent of all music enabled handsets sold to
date (Nokia, 2008; Sony Ericsson, 2008). As Sony Ericsson’s President & CEO
Hideki Komiyama is committed to make Sony Ericsson the world’s third largest
handset manufacturer by 2011 an continued expansion in India, China and the United
States is to be expected (Andrew & Parker, 2008).
The price pressure increases the need for economies of scale in the manufacturing and
development, one way to achieve this for software services is to use common
software platforms, enabling cost-sharing and more generic solutions. Sony Ericsson
works with two different Java platforms in its current portfolio, allowing developers
to focus on a common platform rather than unique models, newer versions of the
platforms are backwards compatible increasing the potential number of users for older
applications (Sony Ericsson, 2007). Other platforms such as Google’s Android
(Gartenberg, 2008) or Microsoft’s Windows Mobile also makes software compatible
across various handsets even various manufacturers (Taylor, 2008).
4.2.2
Suppliers
In 2006 when the analysis were made software already accounted for more than 50
percent of the development costs in the high end segment. Currently four of the five
major handset manufacturers (Samsung, Motorola, LG and Sony Ericsson) has or
have announced products running Microsoft’s proprietary Windows Mobile operating
system, Sony Ericsson being the latest with its Xperia X1 announced at the World
Mobile Congress in Barcelona February 2008 (Taylor, 2008). Google’s open source
platform initiative Android has generated much support in the industry, free of charge
and with optional free complementary software (Gartenberg, 2008).
Another important group of suppliers is the owners of intellectual property used in
software such as codecs, the costs coupled with using this IP can significantly alter
the unit cost of the application especially if the software is installed in large volume
(Blomkvist, interview 2008-02-21).
Obviously also the hardware suppliers are of great importance, especially the
platform providers controlling and licensing the communication technologies with the
cellular networks (Ericsson Mobile Platforms, 2007).
4.2.3
New Entrants
Under the current convergence paradigm Accenture (2005) suggests convergence
from companies currently making standalone devices that are being included in the
cellular phones, giving their products cell phone functionality. One current example
of this is Apple’s iPhone. Other possible entrants of the same reason could be camera
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
manufacturers or companies such as Nintendo as their business in handheld game
consoles are converging with the cell phone industry.
4.2.4
Substitutes
The most obvious substitute is wired phones, but VoIP using wired or wireless
internet connections and computers or standalone phones are also viable. Other nonvoice computer based communication such as chat, video links and web based
communities. Internet service providers (ISP) and cable companies are two examples
of major substitute providers (Accenture, 2005).
4.2.5
Customers
Since neither of the handset manufacturers sells directly to consumers, there are three
major direct customers; Mobile Network Operators (MNO) such as AT&T and
Vodafone, Virtual Mobile Network Operators (service providers who don’t own any
network hardware) and retail stores. In some markets such as Japan the MNOs have a
dominant position while the retail channel have a larger market share in other
countries such as the Republic of Korea where subsidies on handsets from the
operators are illegal (Kallio et. al., 2006). While the retail phones are branded and
configured only by the manufacturer, the MNOs co-brand and customize the software
in their phones (such as Vodafone Live!). In markets where MNOs hold large markets
shares they hence also control which software that is pre-installed, making software
that challenges their business model, for example IP-based chat and voice harder to
reach the consumers. Although they can’t stop the technology from eventually
replacing their current revenue sources voice-minutes and SMS (Bengtsson, interview
2008-02-11).
4.3
Market Shares & Volume
Market shares have only changed slightly between the major players since 2002, all
but Motorola have managed to increase their market share giving these five players an
increase combined market share of 86 percent up from 75 percent in 2002. The
market share distribution globally can be seen in figure 4.4 and the market shares of
the major players over the last five years can be seen in figure 4.5. Growth rates over
the latest five year period have stayed in double digits for all major players except
Motorola every year. LG Electronics tops the group with 506 percent growth over the
five year period slightly ahead of Sony Ericsson at 448 percent. The yearly growth
rates for all actors are shown in figure 4.5.
42
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Market share 2007
15%
14%
14%
7%
41%
9%
Samsung Electronics
Nokia
Sony Ericsson
LG
Motorola
Others
Figure 4.4 - Market share for the major vendors in 2007. (Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Samsung,
LG and Nokia 2008)
43
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Market share of the major handset manufacturers
2002 - 2007
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2002
2003
2004
Samsung Electronics
2005
Nokia
2006
2007
Q4 2007
Sony Ericsson
LG Electronics
Motorola
Figure 4.5 - The market share of the major vendors since 2002. Sony Ericsson (2008),
Ericsson (2006), Motorola, Samsung, LG and Nokia (2003-2008)
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
5 Empirical Findings
All the information presented in this section is based on the interviews listed in the
reference list. No specific references are made in order to encourage the interviewees
to speak more freely, without having to think of internal politics. The most important
criteria for the decision process are highlighted in italics below.
5.1
Development Organization
5.1.1
Organisation Structure
The general decision processes at Sony Ericsson are cell phone centric and software
plays a subordinated role, the most important aspects of the phone projects are
volume, hardware functionality and shape. Application planning the division
responsible for providing content to the handsets creates application briefs and
oversees the application creation process. The process typically includes a research,
prototyping, pre development and development phase handled the organisational units
SERC (Sony Ericsson Research Centre), prototyping and SAG (Sony Application
Group). There is also a possibility of outsourcing some or most of the development.
The process is depicted in figure 5.1.
Prototyping
Third party / SAG
SERC
Research
Prototyping
Pre development
Development
Launch
Application Planning
Creation of application briefs
Figure 5.1 - The application creation process.
According to the developers we interviewed organizational issues seems to be the
underlying common bottleneck causing a rather inflexible development process being
extremely dependent on the overall platform development process, Heartbeat. The
enterprise lacks an organisation structure designed to manage projects where short
cycle times are required. There are considerable differences in areas such as planning
and development lead times between handsets and applications. Handsets normally
require lead times of approximately 18-24 months and software applications require
substantially shorter lead times. This makes it unbeneficial to adapt and tie the
application development process to the Heartbeat process in the extent which is done
today. The applications development process which is described as an ad hoc
intensive process would definitely benefit from being cut loose from the overall
process for example by developing the services in java environment instead of highly
dependent of the platform.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
5.1.2
Sony Ericsson Research Centre
Projects developed within SERC (research projects) are allowed to follow a set of less
rigorous criteria compared to criteria used in pure product development projects.
These projects require closer feasibility studies and the ideas are backed up by solid
business cases. In order to form a common process attempts have been made to
develop projects on equal grounds, following an equivalent process independent of
the nature of projects. This however turned out to be difficult due to the SERC unit’s
unique role within the overall organisation, often working with technology and
projects related to gains in a longer future perspective. Projects are often run
separately, and to some extent apart from the more structured parts of the
organisation. The purpose of the SERC unit is to maintain a strong technical knowhow preparing Sony Ericsson to meet competitor’s solutions as well as requirements
from tomorrow’s customers.
5.1.3
Application Planning
The organizational unit responsible for content in the handsets have a few overall
criteria they use in evaluation of new application ideas. The focus is on the consumer
experience and not on technology; the application shall be relevant, easy to
understand, aspirational and convenient. The focus is on what to achieve rather than
how to achieve it, employees regard technology push projects (software developed
just to make use of new hardware) as likely failures. The unit is responsible for
planning of the future Sony Ericsson unique applications. The applications are
developed and integrated into all handset platforms and the unit has developed
applications such as TrackID, Sense me and Shake control.
The other major organizational barrier to planning high performance application
brought up during our interview sessions is the link between the platform
development and internal development of applications. Since the cycle time is much
longer for the platforms and it has more rigorous test procedures market opportunities
will likely be lost. The option is to plan for development of Java-based applications
running on top of the platform which in most cases works flawlessly, but in some
specific cases (for example VoIP) the APIs (Application Planning Interface) needed
to access functions in the platform are not available in other cases the Java-layer is
simply to slow.
5.2
5.2.1
Case study SERC IM
Background
Actors within the mobile handset industry are today struggling with issues familiar to
the ones that Nicklas Zennström gave answers to through the successful development
of the Skype software. By establishing a direct IP-connection between two computers
through broadband he proved it possible to transfer voice over IP communication and
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
thereby also proved a great number of non-believers within the industry wrong. This
way information was sent using networks supporting data transferring via package
technology. The fact that current networks available for mobile traffic, UMTS and
GPRS, offer maximum uplink bitrates of 64kbps and 40 kbps respectively (although
EGPRS is faster) makes the resulting voice quality to poor using the technique
especially when far away from a base station. Problems are also caused by the fact
that the existing communication system integrated in the mobile networks does not
disclose the user’s IP-number nor offers an opportunity to fix an explicit user to an IP
identity.
In order to develop the technology concerning the establishment of direct IPcommunication between mobile clients the research unit within Sony Ericsson
independently has formed a development project named SERC IM. The solution
offered by Sony Ericsson allows the subscriber to connect to another subscriber
through the establishment of an IP-connection. The technique requires the user to
download a java client and when installed the java client enables a connection
towards the SERC IM server. It is also noted as a step towards a broader technology
shift toward an all IP-based communication solution developed by Ericsson among
others called IMS (Internet Protocol (IP) Multimedia Subsystem).
5.2.2
Business case
SERC IM offers a chat service which is unique since the underlying technique makes
it more easy to use. One of the main advantages compared to competing programs is
the functionality which allows subscribers to be reachable without being logged on to
a server. As mentioned the program has to be downloaded to the phone but can then
be turned off and the user would still be reachable. The instant messenger software
today available on the market requires the user to be connected to a server which
generates extra battery power drain as well as data traffic.
The benefit of being able to reach people whether they are offline or online the
technique is based on phone numbers that are used to establish the connection via a
low cost SMS. After the initial SMS an IP-connection is established which incurs
only a very low cost for the data sent and received, typically an SMS-sized chat
message cost 0.03 cent.
5.2.3
Decision process
The decisions regarding development of the SERC IM project was formed on the
SERC department’s general grounds used for research projects and consists of criteria
within significant areas such as current and future trends, areas of fast paced
technical development and areas were gaps has been identified in the company’s
technology portfolio. If the gut feeling concerning the mentioned areas is found to be
right the project are interesting enough and development will be initiated. SERC IM
was primarily created by one key developer within SERC, a relatively small
development cost to be able to evaluate the concept and gain more knowledge. The
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
approach reassembles a real options strategy and the following larger development
cost of improving the software has been outsourced to Poland for cost reasons.
5.2.4
Summary
A number of criteria were identified both new and reoccurring from the theory
section. The rather small initial size of the project is important to take notice of, so is
the primary aim of the project; it is not a finalized product but a technology test
application that later can be incorporated in products. The important criteria for the
business and the decision process are summarized in table 5.1.
Development
Market & Usage
Strategy & Business Model
Quality Performance (Data/Battery)
Ease of use
Technology trends (IMS)
Cost (Low initial cost)
Functionality
Real options
Cost of usage
Table 5.1 - The important criteria found in the SERC IM case interviews.
5.3
5.3.1
Case study SERC POS
Background
From a market perspective the interest and demand for services related to GPS
technology have been relative low during the past ten years. Within the mobile
handset business the technology though has been put into focus throughout the last
decennium. As the technology gradually has become more used in e.g. cars,
customers have discovered the functionality. Interest in phones offering GPS services
are expected to burst out within the coming years.
Due to the current underlying technology needs, the service requires a lot of battery
capacity, has insufficient service range (especially indoors) and can only perform at a
slow speed. The later issue is mainly caused by the time which today is required to fix
the satellite signals needed to locate the initial position. This only confirms that there
are challenges linked to the development and improvement of the GPS technique;
both practical and future strategic nature. By using additional data to support the
initial GPS signal screening (assisted GPS) Sony Ericson will be able to decrease the
GPS lead times from up to five minutes down to fifteen seconds. The data from an
assistance server enabling the assisted GPS is required to offer a state of the art GPS
application, the question is though how to obtain this assistance server data in the best
way.
5.3.2
Business Case
The development costs related to SERC POS were rather low and through the prior
development work by a third party software developer the overall project development
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
cost where able to be estimated with only small variations. In view of the low
development costs the SERC unit decided to move on for further research.
The data which today enables the crude positioning (positioning based on location a
base stations in the cellular networks) needed for (full) assisted GPS support is
provided by operators or other third party companies such as Google. This result in
that Sony Ericsson is currently dependent on suppliers providing the accurate data on
the cellular network based location. In turn this is linked to some technical issues of
keeping the data up to date and bureaucratic administration. By building their own
data base, saving coordinates (cell data) on servers within the company the
appropriation of value is transferred from operators to Sony Ericsson.
The advantages of controlling the user data also consists of the fact that Sony
Ericsson do not have to pay operators to access the information which during current
conditions is very expensive. Controlling the cell data adds future business
opportunities and the potential business model of selling the user data to other
companies. This way Sony Ericsson could offer companies a direct market channel
where users could be targeted with personal commercial and information. By building
their own cell data consumers using the application will gain from a faster GPS
technique and remaining users (which has no GPS receiver) will gain the possibility
to get a rough positioning based on which network cell they are currently connected
to.
5.3.3
Decision process
Sony Ericsson was initially contacted by a third party software company with the
expectations that Sony Ericsson would show interest in their positioning service
application. The product was based on GPS technology and its unique selling point
was that the application allowed the user to find his/her friends by showing their
position on a map. The SERC unit identified the service as an interesting option to
locate base stations and also acknowledged the possibility of using the application
within the SERC IM project, adding value to the already existing concept. The
decision initiating the project was motivated both by the fact the application would
create value when integrated in the SERC IM project as well as the future gains by
using assisted GPS. The latter reason was backed up by strong strategic benefits.
The continued development and adjustment of the application was performed by
programmers from the supplier and SERC bought their services on a floating basis
adding flexibility into the development process allowing for quick decisions.
According to the decision makers there were no formal decision criteria concerning
the development of SERC Pos project but rather an attitude which was driven by the
mindset; let´s try and see what happens (trial and error).
When the demo software was finalized a contest was initiated within the SERC team
in order to put some excitement in the necessary process of collecting cell data by
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
reporting the position of unexplored base stations. Theoretically the technology could
be used when tagging location of pictures shot with the cell phone and other forms of
integration or convergence.
5.3.4
Summary
SERC POS is clearly regarded as a technology investment that will support new
features in other programmes rather than as a block-buster stand-alone application.
The outsourced development organization allows for flexibility and consumes only a
small amount of internal man power, making the scheduling and prioritization
arguments irrelevant. Several strategic benefits can be pointed out the most important
being creation of new knowledge of the users but also the service’s possibilities to
create value in Sony Ericsson’s key business segment of camera phones. The
complete list of identified decision criteria can be seen in table 5.2.
Development
Market & Usage
Strategy & Business Model
Cost (Low initial cost)
Functionality
Value appropriation
Flexibility (from sourcing)
Information on users
Real options (future business)
Convergence
Table 5.2 - The criteria identified during the SERC POS study.
5.4
5.4.1
Case study - Blogger
Background
Blogger was developed to offer consumers a smart way to actually benefit from their
mobile camera as well as the power of communicating expressions through pictures.
Blogger a as a service makes is possible for the users to take a photo or record a video
and then blog/upload it on the web to share live experiences. When blogging the
media the user fills in a title and a description and the blog item is sent to a server and
published on the web allowing any user to view it. The service also will, in the future,
enable the user to add geo-tags to pictures showing the location where the picture was
taken. The application was launched in connection to the cyber shoot handset.
5.4.2
Business case
The goal was to develop applications that fit in and naturally can be related to the
existing company value propositions such as imaging, music, games. In the case of
blogger (connected camera) there was an obvious link to the existing cyber shoot
handset (imaging) which facilitated the decision making. Blogger adds a unique value
by enabling and stretching the current cyber shoot brand by expanding the brand from
the pure camera functions to also include services that are dependent on the camera
being connected. The business case was build upon the advantages in connectivity
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
gained from offering a connected camera compared to the current service and thereby
increasing the value and usefulness linked to the existing cyber shoot.
5.4.3
Decision process
The process regarding blogger was, similarly to applications of comparable nature,
quite ad hoc. The process focus has decreased within the unit and most of the effort
and focus are today put on finding attractive applications with a high ease of use,
rather than following rigid processes. The main criteria is based on that the
applications has to create value to the consumers and to achieve this the application
planning unit works in close connection with areas such as user experience and
product planning. The work is about inventing promising applications based on
extensive research were actual and future trends as well as competitor's behaviour
(Apple and Nokia) are studied closely and function as essential input. By studying
relevant blogs, attending conferences and using internet as a tool for discovering
innovation and behavioural change among consumers new ideas are born. When the
application/need is identified, the idea must be presented and communicated to
colleagues in order to secure an organizational buy-in. The actual decision regarding
whether to continue or not is made later in the process and becomes a result of how
well the idea is rooted.
The fundamental question when developing new unique Sony Ericsson applications
are; whether the user buys SEMC products and in that case why? Understanding who
the users are is crucial for successful application development and by asking
questions such as what are the elementary needs and in what segment to these
consumers belong, the user can be pointed out. As in the development of blogger the
question addressed was who will really use this application? The initial answer was
users who on regular basis writes diary but after doing further research they realised
that this segment wasn't really the actual target group. They identified a new target
group, picture bloggers.
A couple of years ago most of the services were developed by programmers within
Sony Ericsson but today third part developers are being used whenever possible. As
examples of applications that have been developed by external resources TrackID
(Gracenote) and blogger can be mentioned and the underlying strategy is to take
advantage of already developed code. Within application planning unit the common
opinion is that the future trend will head against an even greater use of external
resources when developing new applications and that the process would gain from
this development.
Business cases are especially applied on hardware basis and it is hard to actually
evaluate and calculate the actual value added by the development of a specific
application. The basic criteria when initiating the development process is, as
mentioned earlier, that the application shall add a unique value to the customer as
well as be corresponsive to the company strategy and company propositions, music,
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
imaging... Some services have great impact in terms of marketing (valuable when
introducing a new product or strengthening the communication of existing
propositions) while other services are developed with a more long term motive. As an
example of the prior the first shake control can be mentioned and as example on the
latter PlayNow.
5.4.4
Summary
The blogger application’s close connection to the cyber shoot brand as well as the
application’s enhanced effect on level of connectivity was crucial to the development
of the application. As in the development of SERC Pos the outsourced development
permitted a high level of flexibility and little internal resources. The fact that blogger
was aligned to both the company strategy and the imaging proposition supported the
decision making. Except the strategic benefits market potential and usage was
identified through extensive market studies. The criteria found important are
summarized in table 5.3.
Development
Flexibility (allocation of external
resources)
Extensive research mission (most
relevant small projects are
developed)
Market & Usage
Strategy & Business Model
Connectivity
Convergence
Value to users
Strategic fit
Branding
Figure 5.3 - The criteria found most important to the Blogger project.
5.5
5.5.1
Case Study - Track ID
Background
As the music proposition within Sony Ericsson has become extremely successful the
development of the track id application was a natural step. To further enhance the
company’s position within the music area and thereby further strengthen Sony
Ericsson brand recognition in the area of music. Track ID today statues a great
example of what within Sony Ericsson is defined as wow service giving the user a
unique and value adding experience. Although tracking music is not revolutionizing
and unique as a service the idea of providing the service via a handset was
groundbreaking.
5.5.2
Business case
The track id application adds value to the customer by providing the user with track
relevant information such as title and artist. The data will appear in the display after
recording a fragment of the requested song and the recorded information has been
compared to a music archive. At the time, similar services existed but were only
available on the internet. Developers within the application planning unit however
estimated that putting the application in the handsets and thereby making the service
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
wireless definitely would bring benefits to users. From the perspective of Sony
Ericsson a great number of potential users could be addressed by distributing the
service through their handsets and synergizes between Sony and Ericsson could be
taken advantage of in the very best way.
For the majority of application projects the application planner responsible for
TrackID states that it primarily due to three reasons would be difficult to motivate the
development of the application by merely putting numbers to it. The first reason is
that in general terms it is hard to get an estimate reliable enough to be worth using.
Secondly when having put together an adequate case built solely on figures it is
unlikely that the case actually can support further development from a business case
point of view. Third an application as TrackID will, if it is successful generate
increased credibility in the perception of Sony Ericsson as being a competent player
in the music / handset business as well as increase the company’s brand recognition.
Most services simply does not have a solid standalone business model, they rely on
creating increased value (and thereby price) on bundled hardware. The potential level
of gains in perception and brand recognition is difficult to estimate and putting
numbers on these soft values allowing them to show trustworthy facts becomes even
more complex.
5.5.3
Decision process
As explained above building a decision using a traditional business case would not
take all aspects into consideration. Instead criteria such as strategic fit (described as
DNA-correlation) towards the overall company strategy, level of uniqueness and look
and feel and consumer perception related to the service was taken into account.
Questions like can the application support the organisation’s current value
propositions and which emotion is communicated had to be addressed. Other criteria
that is of general importance when developing Sony Ericsson unique applications is
ease of use, relevance, convenience and aspirational effect, these criteria all have in
common the fact that they focus deeply on the user experience.
The application planners ask themselves the questions, what do we want to achieve
and what performance do we need to deliver? If the application unit reach the
conclusion that they lack the resources to be able to guarantee a certain level of
quality or customer value they step back and wait for the technology to mature,
timing is important. This is a priority/decision process which is aligned in the
corporate strategy and separates Sony Ericsson from other large players within the
business. Other players employ a strategy that includes communicating technology
leadership independent of the quality of the user experience aimed at early adopters.
Of great importance in the decision process of track id was the fact the application
could be used to improve Sony Ericsson’s bargaining power when negotiating with
operators (when selling SEMC hardware). Also, using the application would most
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
likely enable later revenues streams both for SEMC and the operator, generated from
the PlayNow application due to their close connection.
5.5.4
Summary
TrackID was developed with an imaging focus; the product has no mean of building
network effects or generating income from direct use. Its main purpose is the increase
the value of primarily the music oriented phones by enabling a “wow” service. The
only mechanism identified for the product to generate a cash flow is through coupling
with a music store, at the same time use of the service costs Sony Ericsson money
which has to be considered an investment in the Walkman brand and to enable
increased revenue from hardware sales. The identified criteria in the decision making
are listed in table 5.4.
Development
Market & Usage
Strategy & Business Model
Quality performance
(Technological maturity)
Uniqueness
Synergies with Ericsson / Sony
Quality
Ease of use
Branding
Relevance
Strategic fit/Support of current
value propositions
Convenience
Table 5.4 - The criteria considered while developing the TrackID application.
5.6
5.6.1
Case study - PlayNow
Background
To enable distribution of downloadable content such as music, ringtones, games,
themes, movies and wall papers the planning of a portal, PlayNow was initiated.
From one perspective the development of the service was considered as a brilliant an
innovative strategic move, but yet from another perspective it was a necessary step in
order to stay competitive against other actors.
5.6.2
Business case
PlayNow was in contrast to most other services unique in the way that the underlying
structure allowed the application to independently generate income that could be
traced directly to the level of consumption. The payment system coupled to the
service covers a variety of alternatives depending on the characteristics of the media,
were the main alternatives include purchasing, subscription, and rental systems. The
initial issue when examining the business case is the actual excessive price that the
end consumer has to pay when downloading the media content from the web. This is
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
however unfortunately often the outcome in cases where the service requires
involvement of powerful intermediaries such as content owners and operators. .
There has been marketing campaigns exploiting synergies in between Sony Ericsson
and Sony’s record company Sony BMG. But the synergy effect isn’t as strong as
other synergies such as Walkman and Cyber-shot since those are mutually exclusive.
Neither Sony Ericsson nor Sony BMG wants to be exclusive.
Reklamkampanj med Sony BMG artister.
5.6.3
Decision process
PlayNow was developed internally and due to the complexity of the service, including
questions within areas such as DRM (Digital Rights Management), mean of payment
and the operators’ role lots of resources where put into the process. Because of the
existing market conditions where the operator’s hold an extremely strong position,
both as service provider (or enabler) and as a particularly important distribution
channel, it was in the case of PlayNow hard to settle a favorable agreement and
thereby develop an efficient and beneficial solution offering end consumers a
competitive price. Operators providing the infrastructure are aware of their value and
normally cut shares of 40-50 % which off course stretches the download payments.
Trends in the mobile handset industry although pointed out that more and more
handset actors were initiating development of their own portals, underlining the
importance of Sony Ericsson not falling behind. Within Sony Ericsson the opinions
where split in two parties where one party supported the development while the other
side had a rather unenthusiastic stand point regarding putting further resources on the
project.
5.6.4
Summary
PlayNow was initiated on strategic brand incentives but also as way to bring revenue
streams from downloading. The purpose and underlying ideas and effort to create a
useful media portal was completely aligned with the company proposition strategy.
The result followed by the intern development process however has a lot to prove
both in terms of customer usefulness/ease of use and in terms of charging rates. By
using a business model that forces the content price up to about ten times the cost of
competing alternatives the benefits and excess value probably just don’t make the
offering reasonable most users. From a short term strategic point of view the question
is relevant whether the launch of PlayNow in fact does not damage Sony Ericsson
music brand to a greater extent than it strengthens it. In the long term though
PlayNow probably will gain a better public perception, but the future development is
strongly correlated to the progress of the operators as well as costs of digital rights
and intellectual properties. The identified criteria in the decision making are listed in
table 5.5.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Development
Market & Usage
Technological Complexity
(DRM related issues)
Trends towards in house services Follow trends
Ease of use / usefulness
Business Complexity
(Infrastructure related
issues)
Strategy & Business Model
Value appropriation
Revenue generating business model
Table 5.5 - The criteria found important in the PlayNow case study.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
6 Analysis
The aim of the analysis chapter is to perform an initial screening of the material from
primary and secondary sources and synthesize a number of criteria for the three
dimensions of the decision model. As stipulated in the method chapter this constitutes
the first step in the process of building the decision model, in chapter 7 we will build
the generic model. Chapter 8 & 9 will focus on adjusting the model for use at Sony
Ericsson.
6.1
6.1.1
Development Estimations
Cost
Starting with the cost estimates the literature suggests effort, size, function count,
mature processes, intuition, productivity factors, data complexity and analogies in
order to estimate cost. Effort has a clear correlation to cost, and can be used as a
substitute for cost but it doesn’t help estimating cost. It just transfers one estimation
problem into another one; one scenario where this criterion can be useful is sourcing
of development projects where an external cost substitutes an internal effort.
Estimated internal effort corresponds to an internal cost which can be compared to the
price of sourcing, but otherwise this isn’t a viable criterion for estimation of cost.
The interviews indicate that a fairly large fraction of the projects are developed
externally or will be developed externally in the future. This transforms the
development estimation problem to a sourcing problem and might be a good way of
benchmarking the efficiency of the internal software development. It might also help
the organization to make better estimations knowing third party estimates which
works as independent experts.
Size as described in the theory chapter is naturally correlated to effort and hence cost,
but as stated earlier size is hard to estimate in advance and the studies have focused
on statistical comparison between known efforts and sizes. In order to use this as
estimation tool, first a thorough understanding of how to estimate size is needed. A
relation between size and effort in projects of similar difficulty, quality demands and
programming language are also needed. The case interviews suggest the best way to
predict size is by comparing the specification to already completed programmes with
similar functionality, but this process is best described by analogy estimates in the
theory.
Function counts or use cases are a theoretically and practically more viable way to go
than source code size. Especially since the first estimates are easier to make, when the
specification is somewhat complete it’s possible to estimate the number of use cases
or functions somewhat accurate. The case studies showed that the handset
applications are usually rather small and most of the effort to develop them is not
related to implementing the basic functionality which often can be done by a single
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
programmer in a matter of months. The largest effort lies in compatibility across all
different phone models and platforms, bug fixes and securing consistent high quality
of service. Therefore function count can be of some assistance but mainly the
approach will be analogy based, accounting for the effort unrelated to the number of
functions as well.
Most small projects, that are estimated to have a low budget and are deemed relevant
are run without any more detailed review if they can be staffed as a part of the real
options based strategy to not miss out on opportunities that will be discussed later.
This is described as a part of building a broad knowledge base or to fulfil an extensive
research mission.
Most of the research regarding mature processes is related to a different kind of
projects, much larger than those in the handset industry. The theory section on mature
processes at Motorola (Diaz & Sligo, 1997) doesn’t concern their handset business, it
concerns large defence related projects. One of the case interviewees made a parallel
to the manufacturing industry, measuring and refining processes to tweak productivity
and quality makes sense if you have large volumes, but if each product is new and
unique it will not help. Mechanisms for improving both consistency and productivity
by process maturity like reuse of code, isn’t likely to be possible in this environment.
Probably improvements of process maturity have positive effects on mobile handset
software development as well, but the correlation needed to use CMM maturity level
as an input in estimating total effort seems farfetched. Also this indicator being an
organizational parameter doesn’t help in the selection in between two internal
development projects as they share all organizational factors. But it might improve
the accuracy of analogies with development projects in other organizations. Quite in
the opposite flexibility in the development organisation and sourcing of development
efforts are considered as important to decide on committing resources to
development.
Intuition based estimates or guesstimates have been shown to be unreliable and to
underestimate development costs, still the interviewees indicated that guesstimates
were used especially in research projects, coupled with a real options based
approach. Since the effort to develop the basic functionality is relatively small, an
estimate error is likely to be minor. After the initial development the uncertainty has
decreased and a better guesstimate can be made. Experts’ opinions have an apparent
risk of being biased, especially if giving an optimistic estimate on how much effort
that will be required grants green light for an expert’s pet project. Transparent expert
intuition-based estimates by several independent experts (e.g. not working with
anything related to the project in question), with peer reviewing of the assumptions
made has been suggested a possibility. It isn’t without drawbacks but combined with
the real options like approach and tracking of earlier miss predictions it could be a
viable criterion, minimizing the risk of large miss predictions.
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Another way of viewing especially the SERC projects is to view them as broader
research efforts in order to ensure that Sony Ericsson stays up to date on new trends
and technologies. Even if the specific application fails the effort will be worth
something to the organization, options for further development and knowledge would
still be acquired. Building knowledge and thus minimizing risks on a portfolio-level
and making sure to follow all trends in the industry are seen as sound investments.
Although some level of prioritization and focus are vital to not spread the company’s
resources to thin therefore these broad arguments of creating options and minimizing
risk cannot be included as a decision criterion.
The group of criteria assorted as productivity factors including application category,
language, required software reliability, main storage constraint and the use of modern
programming practices or software tools can be divided into two categories,
application dependent and organisation dependent. The application dependent factors
category, required reliability and storage (or other) constraints can be useful in
evaluation processes, especially when coupled with the quality performance
framework. The organization dependent factors can only be of value when comparing
the other organizations since these factors is equal for all projects.
The application category and the hardware the software will run on helps determining
the constraints and requirements on reliability. Services that lack immediate
alternatives obviously have lower demands on quality performance than applications
competing with alternative applications or methods of satisfying the same need.
Converging of formerly separate devices drives the need for “check box” features,
with somewhat lower demands on quality at least initially. This foremost puts
technical constraints on the hardware, but as pointed out in the case studies it’s
important to have APIs in the platform to support the functionality of the new
hardware and the converged features it brings.
Later when evaluating the strategic criteria questions of what Sony Ericsson aims at
achieving with its brand this will be important. Prioritizations in the platform
development set limits for the higher level applications. Examples illustrating this are
SERC IM which theoretically could achieve more functionality like VoIP and SERC
Pos which could reach better non-GPS positioning using more information on signal
strength and found not currently active cells. In these cases it’s not the hardware itself
that is the delimitation; it is prioritizations in the available resources in development
of the Java platform.
In other cases the constraints are of a more technical nature, like the time needed to
transfer files or playback time under a given memory size, or maybe the hardware
lacks computing power to perform seamless playback without time consuming
optimizations of the software. The other possible trade off, lower quality to reduce
size and computing power needs might also be unsatisfactory, given what Sony
Ericsson wants to communicate to its consumers. Both these types of application
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dependent productivity and/or quality factors are viable evaluation criteria, at least in
the short term.
Data complexity is considered a cost driver in the literature that can be countered by
increased structure especially if the code is volatile. In the case study service
complexity in the nature of services that incorporates multiple interacting systems
located in multiple companies, for example banking services are considered
problematic. Even though these criteria aren’t identical they point at a similar
problem, services which employs applications and databases that are hard to
understand the interconnections in between tends to be costly. The same can be said
for applications that set high demands on the Java-platform needing new APIs or
needs a high level of optimization to run smoothly, adding complexity to the internal
software structure. Also there seems to be an opinion that complex services including
other companies that needs to build complementary systems (such as a handset based
payment system which needs new payment terminals) often ends up with a too long
cycle time.
The last point in the cost estimation part, analogies, seems to be the single most
important factor, much of what the interviewees call gut feeling and have a difficult
time explaining and sometimes defines as experience are actually implicit analogies.
The experience is based on earlier projects of similar nature, so structuring the
analogies criteria can make a significant contribution in improving cost estimates.
Even though many projects are of a one of a kind nature, other companies have made
similar applications and perhaps other good parallels to earlier internal projects can be
made as well if those projects solved a similar problem with another purpose.
6.1.2
Quality
As mentioned in the theory chapter two different types of quality are suggested in the
literature, functional and non-functional. The functional quality that essentially
measures the number of defects in an application is suggested to depend on the
criteria size, scheduling pressure, data complexity, volatility, process and
management maturity and personal capability.
Since size is a rather obvious driver of defects the thesis chooses to include it in the
definition of functional quality. Scheduling pressure is an interesting driver since
studies indicate that there is an optimal scheduling pressure, too much slack resources
sub optimizes productivity while to tight deadlines tends to sub optimize quality. In
the larger context of a handset manufacturer, the software based services must be
coordinated with important hardware and/or platform launches. Therefore it’s
important to recognize this factor when choosing projects to pursuit at any given time;
even if the service has merits on its own it must be able to get reasonable resources in
order to not compromise quality.
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The complexity and volatility have already been discussed in the cost section, but it’s
important to stress the effects on the perceived usefulness and non-functional quality.
Endless updates on rather slow and often costly mobile internet connections that are
needed to provide critical safety and error correction are detrimental to user
experience. As discussed later it also lowers perceived credibility and ease of use, if a
service needs constant updates the consumer will get the impression that he or she
initially and probably still is using a somewhat flawed application.
Even though both process & management maturity and personal capability are
important determinants for the quality of an actual project these parameters are equal
for all internally developed projects so they can’t be used as a selection criteria.
Although they can, as mentioned in the cost section, be used as a benchmark when
service development is being outsourced.
Quality performance as described in the theory is of fundamental importance in
deciding which projects that shall be developed of foremost two reasons; first on the
market the perceived usefulness is linked to how rather than if a programme can
perform a given task and second it links effort to competitiveness. The framework can
hence be used to determine the quality of service that can be provided given a set of
criteria such as resources, hardware and competitive situation. Take the SERC Pos
project as an example, a purely technical functional quality would focus on the
absolute positioning error and time consumed to lock on the coordinate, while the cell
positioning assistance probably could be overlooked. But besides providing a faster
mean of positioning and downloading the correct map at an earlier stage it also serves
less sensitive positioning needs such as tagging of photos or giving a location to chat
or internet community services. In these cases the user is satisfied with the city rather
than the exact coordinate or address. Besides the quality performance needs some
strict quality concerns are raised, the software must be in line with what Sony
Ericsson wants and stands for even to the general state of the technology is unrefined.
If a technology can’t deliver on these “sanitary” quality targets the case study finds it
better just to wait with launching the technology. This criterion can although be
considered to be included in the quality performance and branding criteria.
Our opinion are that functional quality or “check box” features rarely is the
foundation of any differentiation or long term competitive advantage so therefore it’s
more profitable find ways to satisfy more ambiguous needs such as the experience
aspect of non-functional quality.
6.1.3
Cycle Time
Scheduling pressure and capacity are obviously important since the case studies show
that the list of features that the organization wants to include in the platform is about
ten times the capacity, the capacity problem is obviously important on an application
level as well. Therefore application development must coincide with prioritizations in
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platform and hardware development in a way that makes the services developed of as
great value to the consumers as possible given the constraints in available resources.
6.1.4
Conclusion
In the cost estimation dimension analogies, intuition, complexity and productivity/
quality/technical constraints were identified as the most suitable decision criteria. As
both intuition and analogies are based on the work of experts and their experience and
knowledge these two are joined together in a cost & time driver. The complexity
criterion is also selected as a cost estimate in the decision model since it is mainly a
technical issue. The constraints criteria are interconnected with the usage and strategy
dimensions so these concerns will be introduced later.
6.1.5
Definitions
The cost & time criterion is defined as a transparent best estimate of the development
effort by an unbiased expert based on implicit knowledge of earlier projects and is the
only criterion that estimates the extent of the project effort. Complexity is defined as
technical issues related to the number of companies involved in supporting the service
and the complexity of the data structure. The other criteria will be considered in the
other dimensions as suggested by the text. Figure 6.1 shows the development aspect
of the model and its interconnections.
Complexity
Development
Decision
Cost & Time
Figure 6.1 - The development dimension of the decision model with the two selected
estimation criteria, cost & time and complexity.
6.2
Market & Usage Estimations
The literature study a number of criteria suitable for estimating usage and total market
for new software based services. The approach is basically to look at two factors; the
customer’s perceptions of the product (ease of use, usefulness, credibility and
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financial resource) and the value that is created through the services mobility and
wirelessness.
The ease of use factor is supported by the case study, every additional button that
needs to be pressed loses half of the users is a common perception. But several
employees also stresses the financial aspects, especially young users who would be
the first to adopt new technology is very price conscious. Primarily the concern is the
pricing of data transfers in the networks. This constitutes two problems, first the price
might be too high and second lack of information regarding the price or how much
that currently has been used might scare people from using the service both ultimately
decreasing usage.
But there is more to the financial resource criteria than cost of the transferred data, if
the application has some form of revenue generating purpose the cost of buying,
subscribing or using the service is of uttermost importance. Currently the price of
buying music via the PlayNow application is prohibitive for a larger market. Paying
20 SEK (about 3.30 USD) for downloading a song that costs 0.99 USD on Apple’s
competing iTunes service (Apple, 2008) will lead to that very few people thinks it is
worthwhile using it. The pricing will also make a purchase of the actual album on CD
more economical, and this is before any costs of the data traffic the transfer will
generate. Actually under Swedish operator Telia’s pricing scheme (Telia, 2008) of 20
SEK per MB or 69 SEK per day a single song could end up costing the user 89 SEK
(about 14.80 USD). If the current pricing scheme had been anticipated when
estimating the adoption (and not just the feature or installed base) the prediction that
almost no music would be bought through the service would have been obvious and
hence it should have been a clear indicator not to develop.
The cost of usage aspect were pointed out as an important factor for the SERC IM
business model, which practically lets users exchange text messages without incurring
the cost of a new SMS for each sent message. Besides that the concept aims at
lowering costs for media sharing; for instance a normal MMS picture (40 Kb) will be
priced equally in the most expensive use case and be free of charge or significantly
cheaper to transfer via SERC IM in other use cases.
Experience from the business model of viral propagation in the SERC IM project
stresses another of the perception dimensions, security. As the handset needs to
download the application from the internet and install it, the user is asked if they want
to install the application even if the system can’t verify that it’s safe. Users who are
used to download material on their PCs may not be deterred by this but less IT
proficient users wanting to avoid any problem they cannot solve are. This is
somewhat linked to the theory’s self afficacy, or one’s individual belief about her
ability to perform well in a given situation.
A correctly developed service with good information should be able to minimize the
credibility issue as well as the concerns of self-afficacy and costs of usage as long as
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agreements with content providers at fair rates are possible. For example flat rate on
usage, understandable download instructions and certificates that avoid safety
questions or even better, preinstalled software. The other two perception dimensions
ease of use and usefulness are more critical since they concern the design and idea of
the application itself. In order to be perceived as something a customer really wants
and intends to use (in turn a prerequisite for actual adoption) the product must fill a
need or desire of the consumer, in a way that is convenient enough to be perceived as
valuable. In the cases the usefulness aspect was described in terms of relevance and
functionality and is in one or another way highlighted in four of five cases. In this
terminology a focus is put on need fulfilment.
As suggested in the literature the two primary ways of adding value through a handset
is mobile and wireless value. If the service can’t add either of these it’s probably no
need for this particular service in a cellular phone. This issue can be linked to the
issue of general convergence of devices in the industry and the need for new services
based on this. Most of the convergence adds mobile value since most users carry their
cell phone with them anyhow, but it also leads to questions regarding the value
creation of some possible convergence areas starting to become increasingly possible
from a technical point of view. For example even if you could create support for most
PC applications in a handset it would likely not be perceived as a reasonable interface
for working with somewhat complex documents, spreadsheets or other files. This sets
limitations for what users perceive as valuable especially if the theory is combined
with the quality performance theory. This will account for the relative value in
relation to stand alone devices or PC-based applications but also to the relative
performance of competitors.
The interviews actually pointed toward this aspect, both Blogger and SERC Pos that
uses integration of new hardware (convergence) coupled with the added value of
being wireless. Also the interviewees pointed at integration with other applications as
a major reason for developing the SERC Pos software in the first place, adding new
mobile value to features such as instant messaging, online communities and
photography through adding location information. The case study of blogger brings
up connectivity in the sense of integration of different devices (that are converged in
the cell phone) and the internet as a decision criterion. The TrackID case brought up
convenience as another way of describing the value created by integration and
internet access to the range of devices the handset represents.
The last factor in the market and usage dimension is the installed base, or the total
number of devices that comes with the software factory installed, or at least with a
platform that enables running the software if it’s downloaded. The total number of
users will be the fraction of the installed base that has the behavioural intention of
using the application.
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6.2.1
Conclusion
The usage dimension consists of the criteria (1) perceived financial resource (total
cost of usage), (2) installed base, (3) perceived usefulness, (4) perceived ease of use,
and (5) quality performance. The latter three describes the value the software provides
in comparison to alternative products or ways of serving the same need. These aspects
consist of mobile or wireless value and are merged into a single criterion, perceived
value added. The two other criteria total cost of usage and installed base are added as
decision drivers as is.
6.2.2
Definitions
Total cost of usage is defined as all costs for the mean end consumer to acquire,
subscribe for and use the service (or other way of estimating expected cost). The
installed base can either be defined as the total number of handsets that can download
and run an application or the total number of devices estimated to be shipped with the
application pre-installed. And perceived value added is defined as the combined value
for the consumer from mobility and wirelessness. The market dimension with the
criteria is illustrated in figure 6.2.
Perceived value
added
Total cost of
usage
Market
Decision
Installed base
Figure 6.2 - The market dimension of the decision model with the three selected estimation
criteria, total cost of usage, perceived value added and installed base.
6.3
Strategic & Business Model Concerns
The innovation aspect of the strategic & business model evaluation should primarily
answer the question of whether the idea a service is based on is truly innovative. If it
is innovative it should also evaluate if it fits with the company’s current strategy. This
evaluation is closely linked to the prioritizing processes suggested and the very core
of the decision model this thesis aims at developing.
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Ideally good, innovative ideas that strengthens the brand should be encouraged to
grow into viable services while less innovative either should be developed as a pure
me too product or skipped entirely. The non-innovative products tends to difficulties
providing value, if not a pure low-price strategy is used. If the idea is new or is easy
to evaluate, a simple competitor analysis should be sufficient and if it fits with the
brand and strategy of Sony Ericsson is also quite simple to determine. The tricky part
is to evaluate the market potential of truly new ideas, in order to sort out the ones with
potential. Basically a new successful technology-market link must be established for
each successful service, as suggested in the theory chapter.
Needs and trends in the market place must be understood and matched with technical
possibilities. Data from Ericsson Consumer Labs on needs and trends different
markets can be useful in estimating the total potential market for a service. Both the
SERC IM and the PlayNow case pointed at the strategic need to follow the bigger
trends of the industry to stay competitive and don’t risk to miss out on opportunities.
Coupled with some industry insights on hardware performance and capability
developments and the cost and viability of sufficient optimization of the application
serving the need, as discussed in the quality performance theory this can give an
important indication on when a service should be developed.
As a historic example of this Nokia’s N-gage can be mentioned, it filled a known
need, handheld gaming devices had been available since the 80-ies and it was
innovative to drive convergence between handheld gaming and cell phones, but still
the N-gage never became successful on the market. Lee (2004) provides some
insights on the N-gage debacle in an editorial, pointing foremost on the trade-offs
between cell phone and handheld gaming device. Providing enough performance for
the games made the device to large to be a convenient cell phone and the screen had a
disadvantageous form factor. Another major drawback was the lack of competitive
edge over competing gaming systems since almost all games were ported from other
platforms N-gage’s rather good performance never gave any advantage.
An evaluation shows that even though both market and technology existed for this
innovation it simply couldn’t compete in terms of quality performance in the relevant
dimensions. The technology was not mature enough to be incorporated into a cell
phone in a convenient and cost efficient way and as a result the consumer experience
in both gaming and general use was dissatisfactory. Yamakami (2005) addresses this
issue in the business model section by looking at consumer needs in relation to
technical feasibility, suggesting that understanding of the past industry evolution is of
importance in predicting what will be possible in the future. In this thesis a
technology maturity factor, or relative feasibility accounting for customer
expectations, trade-offs in performance and relative quality performance is used as an
indicator of this aspect.
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From the case study the technology maturity driving the SERC IM feasibility, data
transfer cost and capacity can be used as an example of this phenomenon. Launching
SERC IM as a data traffic intensive service and asking the users to stay connected to
the server to use it would not be feasible. Instead the focus is the service’s low cost of
text messaging and relatively low battery drain provides realistic launch expectations.
Delivering these services with high quality, a voice over IP implementation would be
unfortunate based on this line of reasoning as the cellular networks aren’t ready for it
and neither are the phones. The same is true for the PlayNow service, since the costs
of data traffic and payments are much too high to generate a widespread adoption also
the storage capacity and network bandwidth was limiting factors at the time of the
launch, but with higher capacity these limitations have been eased.
The branding and network effects tackle the question of user awareness of a feature
and the possibility of spreading for increased benefit to all users. Branding is coupled
to overall strategy, the question of whether the company wants their brand to be
associated with certain features is crucial. Large network effects and new standards
can normally only be achieved by opening up the technology to all players in the
industry, for example would SERC IM never stand a chance to become widespread if
it didn’t support other manufacturers’ phones. Also as mentioned earlier cost is
detrimental to adoption and thereby network effects, so especially marginal costs is
important.
The TrackID application is a good example of a service that relies on a branding or
imaging effect. It actually costs Sony Ericsson money to provide a networked service
for identifying song titles while the service does not have a way of generating neither
income nor widespread use. But it does deliver perceived additional value to the
Walkman phone that carries the software if marketed correctly. Thereby driving sales
and possibly giving room for a price premium.
6.3.1
Industry Analysis Concerns
The industry analysis with PEST and five forces shows that patent- and other
immaterial property holders together with owners of digital content such as music and
video play a very important role in enabling a reasonable cost structure of the service.
The operators hold an equally important role, if one of these actors doesn’t want to
enable a service by pricing usage or purchase of it too high it will never be more than
a niche product.
As the case studies show the logic is naturally such that in the long run customers will
get the services they want if it is feasible even if one or several players in the industry
wants to stop it. The troubling part is timing; a service that is considered of poor
performance or too expensive at launch will have a hard time getting consumers to
change their opinion later. As an example the potential of developing an all IP voice
call service were discussed, and even if it would be technically possible on Symbian
based phones there are two drawbacks that stops it. First it’s hard to guarantee an
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acceptable quality of the service at all places and at all times and secondly the
competitive dynamics in the industry were the operators draws large revenue streams
from their circuit switched voice traffic and controls a large part of the phone sales
through subsidies of the devices. Actually the products currently marketed as VoIP
phones “Skype phones” in Sweden (by Tre) are circuit switched in the devicenetwork interface as well. Until the major markets get established “internet service
providers”, operators will control the supply of mobile services and it will be difficult
to preinstall and roll out a service that competes with the voice or SMS services.
The case study brought up value appropriation as a problem when designing the
business model for new services, since several companies are involved in enabling a
service and currently the operators seems to take the largest cut of the revenue from
usage. This leaves Sony Ericsson with the ability to generate revenue through the
hardware business only. Synergies with owners and reinforcement of the strategic
positioning through cooperation that takes advantage of strengths and brand names of
the parent companies are brought up several times in the case studies and are
considered important for the decision.
We consider a total cost of provision, dependent of the industry structure and
appropriability to be a critical driver in the decision making. Especially as the
industry overview shows that total cost of ownership is of crucial importance and that
an increasing part of the industry’s revenues come from emerging markets and low
cost products. However the cost of provision is already accounted for in the model as
the total cost of usage and the cost of development are incorporated and redundancy
would not only lead to unnecessary work in the decision process it would also tilt the
balance towards the redundant factors.
6.3.2
Conclusion
The four criteria from the strategy and industry analysis; innovation, technology
maturity, total cost of provision and network effects (and branding) and included in
the strategy dimension of the decision-making. Technology maturity includes the
aspects of productivity/quality/technical constraints as the maturity of the technology
measures if the industry as well as the market is ready for a new software or
technology convergence e.g. if the constraints are easily overcome. Innovation is an
important driver of perceived value; if the product is innovative it should serve a new
need of an existent issue in a better way, so therefore this aspect is merged into that
driver. Network effects & branding are considered of great importance and
interconnects the strategy dimension with the installed base and perceived value
added drivers.
6.3.3
Definitions
The important criteria for the estimation of the strategy dimension are the technology
maturity factor and network effect and branding. The technology maturity factor is
defined as the market readiness of the technology the service is dependent of in terms
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of cost, stability and performance. The network effect and branding dimension
concerns public opinion of the usefulness and status derived from advertisements and
popular use. The strategy dimension can be viewed in figure 6.3.
Network effect &
branding
Strategy
Decision
The technology
maturity factor
Figure 6.3 - The strategic dimension of the decision including the criteria; technology maturity
factor, and network effect and branding.
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7 The Rapid Model for Holistic Application
Evaluation (RaMHAE)
As outlined in the method three main dimensions of the decision-making are
considered in this thesis; development, market and strategy. As the most relevant
criteria for the estimation were identified for each of these three dimensions in the
analysis chapter the construction of a basic decision model is straightforward. The
remaining issue is how to estimate or measure the criteria; each criteria needs to be
assigned at least one key performance indicator or driver. The following section
starts the work of creating such drivers; the work will be followed up by qualitative
interviews to ensure that correct and measureable drivers are selected in the
implemented version of Rapid Model for Holistic Application Evaluation (RaMHAE)
for Sony Ericsson. The definitions of the criteria and suggested drivers are the work
of the authors of this thesis and are based on the analysis chapter.
7.1
The Generic version of RaMHAE
Combining the three dimensions in the analysis chapter and the internal dependencies
gives us RaMHAE in figure 7.1. It is important to create a level of balance between
the dimensions and criteria. RaMHAE is structured in a way that lets two or three
criteria define each dimension, to provide a fair level of balance. Also some criteria
have implications on more than one dimension which is commendable since a holistic
approach is sought for.
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Perceived value
added
Total cost of
usage
Market
Installed base
Network effect &
branding
Complexity
Decision
Development
Strategy
The maturity
technology
factor
Cost & time
Figure 7.1 - The RaMHAE after the initial analysis.
7.2
How to measure the criteria
In order to estimate the criteria universal drivers are needed, our explicit goal is to
develop drivers based on ordinal scales where it is possible since it is a good way to
make the indicator context neutral. Also the drivers need to be transferred to some
sort of grading system that enables comparison between different drivers. Since it is
difficult to generate an exact estimate and therefore a precise grade a system of a
three staged grading scheme are chosen; red (unacceptable), yellow (questionable) or
green (acceptable or better).
7.2.1
Cost & Time
The cost & time criterion is defined as a transparent best estimate by an unbiased
expert based on implicit knowledge of earlier projects. Even if the completely
unbiased cannot be achieved the notion of bias is important to consider in order to
ensure a degree of fairness in the estimate. The criterion can be evaluated by
comparing the project in question to former projects within the corporation or similar
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software from other manufacturers. The driver can be specified in a few different
ways and by putting estimates in relation to benchmarks in an ordinal scale the extent
of the project can be comprehended.
•
•
•
Total cost compared to other internal projects or external projects
Unit cost compared to other internal projects
Time-to-market compared to competing software
The ordinal scale used with some prior data can then be used to grade the driver
relative to other projects, red denoting the most resource-demanding projects, yellow
midsized and green the smaller projects.
7.2.2
Complexity
Complexity is defined as technical issues related to the number of companies
involved in supporting the service and the complexity of the data structure. To
estimate this criterion the driver must either put a number on the complexity of the
business model or the internal (technical) complexity. The business model estimation
is rather straight forward a process flowchart should reveal how many businesses that
are involved in enabling the service. The technical complexity is less obvious to put a
number on, the number of APIs needed in the handset platform or the level of
optimization required for the application to run flawlessly.
•
•
•
Number of participants in the service offering (compared to other internal services)
Number of new APIs needed (compared to other internal projects)
Level of optimization needed (compared to other internal applications)
An ordinal scale is used to estimate the relative complexity, higher complexity gives a
red indicator, the least complex gets a green indicator while those in between gets a
yellow one.
7.2.3
Total cost of usage
Total cost of usage is defined as all costs for the mean end consumer to acquire,
subscribe for and use the service. In order to estimate this cost two aspects are of
relevance; costs incurred by using the cellular network operator’s services and costs
based on intellectual properties. To put a number on these cost aspects the total cost
of an estimated “normal” consumer’s usage can be estimated.
•
•
The cost of data traffic, subscription and/or payment-systems compared to other ways
of servicing the same need.
The cost of procurement of digital content and intellectual properties to install and
use the service compared to other ways of servicing the same need.
Since it is hard to come up with a satisfying number of alternative services filling the
same need an ordinal scale is not viable, therefore a ratio scale is better suited to
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grade this driver. By defining a relevant cost interval for differentiation (e.g. the
current cost of usage with a leading alternative service or an expectation of this cost)
and giving cost significantly higher than average a red score and lower to equal costs
a green score. A cost three times higher than the benchmark mean gives the
application a red score, a cost about equal to or lower than the benchmark mean gives
a green score. Costs outside of this scope are considered not to influence the user’s
determination to use the specific service any further.
7.2.4
Installed base
The installed base is defined as the number of handsets that will get the application,
providing the service in question pre-installed. As an alternative the number of
handsets on the market that can run the application with full or almost full
functionality. A good measure of the installed base driver is market penetration or the
ratio of installed base divided by all handsets on the market, alternatively all handsets
running any form of equivalent software. A third potentially interesting way of
measuring the installed base is the number of users that are compatible with the
service. For instance a VoIP-client can have benefits when being compatible with
regular circuit switched cell phones increasing the actual network effect.
•
•
•
Number of devices shipped with the software pre-installed compared to other internal
applications.
Total number of devices capable of running the software compared to total number of
devices on the market.
Total number of devices compatible with the software as a fraction of all relevant
devices.
Naturally this gives software projects in segments were the corporation currently has
a strong brand a higher percentage helping to enforce currently held strategic
advantages and giving these core groups of consumers an even better experience. In
order to assign a grade to an installed base fraction an ordinal scale comparison to
competing applications or other internal applications can be used. Acceptable or
higher potential percentage of the market would give a green indication, quite low
potential a yellow and unsatisfying potential a red.
7.2.5
Perceived Value Added
Perceived value added is defined as the combined value for the consumer from
mobility and wirelessness. The value is added by mainly three factors, ease of use,
usefulness and quality. These aspects are rather hard to estimate or measure but in
general the subjective evaluation of some sort of test panel could be useful. An
ordinal evaluation scale is preferred, by comparing the ease of use, usefulness and
quality to competing services a relative value can be assigned and translated to a
grade.
•
Relative ease of use compared to competing services
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•
•
Relative usefulness compared to competing services
Relative quality compared to other internal applications
The red/yellow/green indicator system can be applied rather straightforward if the
service are estimated to be easier to use, more useful or of higher quality than average
(for the benchmark) a green indicator is graded and so on.
7.2.6
Technology Maturity Factor
The technology maturity factor is defined as the market readiness of the technology
the service is dependent of in terms of cost, stability and performance. In order to put
a number on these aspects drivers such as affordability and quality of service becomes
relevant. Another factor that could be relevant to estimate are the timing, the product
should be launched when it can be delivered without too many compromises. On the
other hand, launching to late would give the opportunity away to a competitor,
although timing will be very difficult to evaluate in advance.
•
•
Price per relevant performance estimate compared to competing solutions.
Percentage of usage functioning correctly compared to competing solutions.
Price per performance can be evaluated in a similar way to total cost of usage, letting
the current mainstream level of price per performance be a yellow grade and letting a
three times better performance for the same price grade as green and three times
worse price per performance grade as red. The usage percentage functioning correctly
is more straightforward to grade using an ordinal scale.
7.2.7
Network Effect & Branding
The network effect and branding dimension concerns public opinion of the usefulness
and status derived from advertisements and popular use. Fraction of the public that
recognise the brand of the application or feature, to which extent the brand is known
for the “right” properties and the fraction of the public that associate the concept to
something positive are all interesting measures of this aspect. However since the
product isn’t known to the public at the time of the decision making estimates of the
public reaction must replace the actual response. A qualitative estimation of one (or
more) of these aspects compared to currently available applications can still be
helpful in determining the criterion.
•
•
•
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Fraction of the public that recognise the brand or feature compared to other internal
applications.
Fraction of the public that recognise the brand or feature for the reasons internal
wants compared to other internal applications.
Fraction of the public that have a positive image of the product compared to
competing products.
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Once again an ordinal scale is preferred as it neutralizes errors in the estimation since
both the application under evaluation and the benchmarks are subjected to the same
estimate. The suggested grading is according to the standard.
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8 Qualitative Evaluation at Sony Ericsson
The RaMHAE and drivers presented in the previous section were used in a series of
assessment interviews to increase our understanding of the validity of the model and
to be able to make necessary adjustments. To obtain the broadest possible picture the
test panel used consisted of personnel from different parts and different levels of the
organisation.
8.1
Assessment Interviews
A general aspect the research manager pointed out was that not all drivers necessarily
are applicable for every product, hence a not applicable option has to be included in
the RaMHAE implementation.
8.1.1
Cost & Time
An assessment interview with a research manager pointed out a number of relevant
issues. First, our definition and argument concerning an independent expert was
considered unrealistic since it likely would be impossible to find such. Another
interesting finding was that also the biased expert were probably more likely to be
opposed to the development than in favour of it due to the presence of the “not
invented here syndrome” within the development unit. Organizational resistance
could stem from several reasons; own agendas that stakeholders want to pursuit,
internal political opinions or resistance against ideas simply based on the fact that it
wasn’t your own idea. The same interviewee considered time to be a more important
parameter than cost, especially for projects that need to be implemented in the
platform; a process likely to take about two years. This could of course be due to the
limited effort (and thus cost) that the SERC projects incur. It´s obvious to involved
parts that the current organization form is not designed to meet the actual
requirements in the most efficient way, but this is the way it works today.
Further input from a senior researcher concerning the cost & time criteria was to try
to better define and explain the meaning of the “total cost” driver in order to increase
the understanding of the RaMHAE. It has to be clear to the user that it is the
development cost that is relevant when looking at the first driver. The unit cost driver
is dependent on (inferior) to the estimation of the total cost. When estimating the unit
cost driver it is actually the number of units that is relevant based on the assumption
that the total cost has to be divided with number of units. When then adding the
marginal cost for each unit (license cost) to the fraction from the prior sentence the
estimation of the second driver is complete.
The same senior researcher definitely confirmed the importance of taking both the
estimation of the unit cost as well as the estimation of total cost into account. It could
also be interesting to divide the cost into different groups depending on the character
of the application such as if the application can be used in products, product families
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or platforms. The classification of services into different groups could be useful when
calculating project specific net present values based on the grounds that the
investment horizon differs from approximately two years down to two months for
current openings in the market window, depending on the characteristic of the project.
The senior researcher states that timing in relation to the market is of great
importance and underlines that the ability to fit development with the market
opportunities is even more important than the actual cycle time. It is also essential to
be aware of the differences in estimating future market capabilities and estimating the
company´s capabilities. In the generic RaMHAE the estimation of time concerns the
organisation´s ability to bring a service to the market compared to competing
software estimated as a time difference. But during the interviews we received
feedback concluding that it would be better to actually estimate the organisation´s
ability to meet the window of opportunity and exclude the comparison to competitors
concerning pure lead times.
According to an executive the development cost is usually estimated in terms of effort
man months. Using this driver gives a relevant estimation concerning a project´s total
cost. Time has an important correlation to complexity, the longer cycle time the
greater is the complexity. He also points out the possibility of fast tracking projects in
cases where the idea seems promising and the total cost can be estimated to less than
one man year. In these cases further criteria for continued development are not
necessary and a future decision model can be replaces by pure gut feeling due to the
low stakes involved. In general it is less complicated to make decision regarding
applications that are stand alone from the underling platform. The same source
underlines the importance of timing, “timing is everything” and the overall gains of
putting a product on the market in time is on the whole worth more than strictly
following the development budgets.
8.1.2
Complexity
The business part of the complexity criterion (the number of businesses/stakeholders
involved in the service offering) was found to be a relevant driver. The business part
is about estimating the complexity of getting all involved actors lined up behind the
technology. Except being relevant in the actual service offering the driver would also
be applicable during the development process as the number of errors and delays
increase with the number of companies involved in the development supply chain. As
in the case of Sony Ericsson this is relevant when for example working towards
stakeholders who hand over independent deliverables towards the next party in the
development process for example: Symbian hands over to UIQ who delivers to Sony
Ericsson. The other component of the complexity criterion, the technology part with
the two drivers focusing on internal complexity could be used in the cost & time
criterion as an effort estimate, according to the research manager. This is motivated
by the fact that choice of technology affects the level of complexity which in turn
affects the cost & time. Costs are also affected differently depending on if required
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competence can be located in-house or have to be sourced from outside the
organisation.
The level of complexity is highly dependent on if the project requires involvement of
additional industry actors and what requirements that are linked to the programming
of the application. Whether the software issues easily can be solved or not is in turn
decided by the structure of the system. An example of this brought up by the
executive during the evaluation is UMA (Universal Mobile Access), a technology to
transfer voice conversations between different radio technologies (such as Wireless
LAN, UMTS and GSM) seamlessly. This technology needs low-level interaction in
the communication software which is an extremely complex task to implement which
is one of the reasons why this hasn’t been done to date.
Input received during additional interviews with developers confirms the initial
statements and thereby motivates the choice of number of participants in the service
offering and number of new APIs needed (or more generally the abstraction level
required in the programming) as reliable drivers when estimating complexity.
8.1.3
Total Cost of Usage
Concerning the total cost of use criterion the researchers agree upon that both drivers
identified are accurate but their opinions as to which of the two drivers that is most
important differs. The total cost of usage criterion covers the cost of consumers to use
the service. Until today the cost of data traffic, subscription and/or payment-systems
have been the driver with the highest influence in a development perspective. But as a
market situation where data traffic are a flat rate service becomes the norm in a
growing number of markets this is likely to change. The future driver influencing
total cost of usage will most likely be associated to digital rights management.
Another input from the research manager was that the cost of licensing should be
included in intellectual property cost in an explicit way. Most applications don’t use
any digital media but still has cost related to either licensing of the entire application
or some intellectual property used in it, as a codec or proprietary protocol.
When developing applications intended for future use there is an underlying
awareness of an upcoming scenario where prices of transferring data will drop and
thereby drive consumption of services like PlayNow. Sony Ericsson is currently
putting resources to increase the user value linked to PlayNow. The public
preconception among customers is that data is expensive why a decrease in this
particular driver probably will have great impact on PlayNow as well as comparable
services. From the perspective of Sony Ericsson the current primary concern is the
cost of transferring data and the secondary focus lies on intellectual property rights.
The feedback we received did also emphasize the fact that when developing an
application the choice of payment system (ex. subscription or price per song) may
affect the revenue streams. The development of some kind of alternative scenario
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model followed by different payment alternatives would be one way to structure and
illuminate the options. For example PlayNow using subscription or without using
subscription. After some discussion we also identified a new relevant driver, superior
to the two existing ones; the concrete need for data traffic. The answer to this
question will influence and even determine additional inferior drivers, such as cost
under different pricing models. During additional interviews the idea of using the
definite need for data traffic as driver (amount of data (in kB) transferred) though was
meet with objections based on existing market conditions where operators naturally
charge more than the actual data transfer cost. The amount of data transferred in a
SMS would for example be priced at substantially lower levels if based only on the
pure transferring of data, why the means of payment regarding the specific service
have to be considered in the evaluation process.
8.1.4
Installed Base
As the initial drivers differed in how inclusive they were, the research manager found
number of devices capable of running the application to be most relevant. The choice
was based on the upcoming business models of viral distribution in social networks.
The spreading mechanism is crucial for continued distribution and can be explained
in terms of evolutional terminology, were humans beings is defined as herd animals
with a strong demand for interpersonal relations. In these terms it is vital that the
applications easily can be spread and thereby reach a certain level of user permeation.
The interviewee underlines the choice of driver by the argument that when the
number of people using the application exceeds a certain level people in their social
networks will start using the application (the service gains critical mass or
momentum).
The most inclusive driver, total number of devices compatible with the software as a
fraction of all relevant devices is aligned with the risk of being caught in a situation
where the service is recognised as too undifferentiated towards competing
alternatives. If the application development is driven by level of compatibleness to
other devices alone, a relevant question to address should be, why should we actually
develop this application and what needs are we trying to fill.
An executive believes that preinstalled applications are important, but also confirms
the viral distribution (and thus compatible hardware) as central to accelerate the
distribution of the application. SERC IM is at current distributed by viral spread, a
distribution that would most likely be more successful if the user wasn’t obligated to
answer a number of questions before actually entering the installation. This would
increase both the usability and the ease of use.
8.1.5
Perceived Value Added
The ease of use driver are crucial to the penetrate a mass market, on the other hand
applications that are not considered to be useful will only be used a few times after
the purchase. The value in the wow features that do not add any real useful functions
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are primarily coupled to branding and marketing and add perceived value before and
directly after the purchase. The research manager also mean that in order to estimate
perceived value added the quality of the application must be taken into consideration.
Instead of relating it to other SEMC applications the quality though should be
compared to the quality of competing services to acquire a useful driver.
According to the same interviewee it is important to keep in mind that the opinion of
the public market is of greater value than the actual technical performance. It may be
close to the truth that customers put larger expectations on a Sony Ericsson handset
than compared to other brands but to refer to this phenomenon as perceived value
added would be to stretch the terminology a bit too far. The quality of a Sony
Ericsson product should be characterised by the standards within the organisation,
why the quality of the product should be evaluated on characteristics that lie beyond
the usual expectations.
When developing an application realistic estimations have to be done regarding
usability performance, the outcome being either thumb up or thumb down. One
relevant measure could be the number of buttons that must be pushed to get the
application running. According to a senior researcher, it would be relevant to combine
the criteria perceived value added and installed base. This could be done by looking at
the number of users who theoretically can run the application and the number of
customers who practically would be able to run the application. A correlation between
penetration and the level of usability was suggested, if such a correlation exist it
would be important to determine the underlying dependency. The level of marketing
will also affect the customers perceived value experience and Apple has showed the
rest of the market what can be done within this area by being successful in the way
the strategically design their experiences.
The quality aspect is relevant in terms of the application actually working when
people expect it to work; otherwise the project will not survive. Releasing
applications characterized by poor performance is also associated with the risk of
hurting the general impression of the application but also the entire brand. For
applications coupled to hardware features like a camera or other integrated
peripherals the ease of use is extremely important otherwise people won´t bother to
use them.
The point in time where the specific service/feature adds value are important to
consider, some services has a clear effect before the purchase such as the shake
control while others arguably more useful features´ perceived value increases as the
user learns to use and appreciate them. This aspect is described by the user experience
curve (Ux-curve) and can be of great value as service offerings needs to be fitted with
the overall strategy. The overall package should provide high perceived value at all
time horizons.
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8.1.6
Technology Maturity Factor
As the generic RaMHAE uses a price per performance and a usage functionality
estimate they capture different parts of the market according to the SERC researcher.
Price per performance are relevant to especially late adopters, while functionality are
more important to less price sensitive consumers such as early adopters and
experiencers. To use the driver “percentage of usage functioning
correctly/satisfactory compared to competing solutions” alone, could create an
organisation that will focus on having a low rate of bugs rather than focusing on
continuous improvement which impede development.
When discussing the technology maturity factor and market readiness it is important
to understand and be aware of the conditions that actually have the greatest impact on
the development of market maturity. Within in the industry it is very rare that a single
player comes up with an idea out of the blue and then must influence remaining actors
in order to succeed, these ideas are in general killed based on high costs. The common
scenario in the business is that a certain technology can be realized first when a group
of relevant companies have obtained a required level of technological competence.
Another set-up consists of a scenario were companies merge and thereby reach a level
where they can push the development forward.
When the technology development has been enabled a market must be identified. In
cases where the market does not exist, companies, if they are big enough, in some
cases actually are able to develop and create their own markets, such as Apple and
Google. The main reason why the technology maturity factor is of importance is that
it is both difficult and expensive to develop handsets.
The senior researcher here states the technology maturity (if that´s a correct definition
of what you would like to describe) is less about price and therefore prefers to
exclude the price from the drivers. Instead he proposes that this factor could be
estimated more accurately by a quality performance linked to the usability and utility
break-point index (as in the previously described QUPER model especially the
benefit view). If the performance is below a predefined level there is no point in
continuing the development. The same researcher also points out that the RaMHAE
implementation should be clearer on the meaning of “performance”, as it is what the
users gain from the technology rather than any physical performance measure (like
memory density, processing power etc.)
An executive adds that when comparing SEMC to other players in the mobile handset
industry (Nokia) SEMC is recognized for not risking the usability to the same extent
as some technologically leading companies. There is an important trade off between
usability, price and performance. When using for example GPS services people will
stop use the service in the long run if the application needs ten minutes each time to
fixate a coordinate. Without the application delivering value to customers it will not
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survive and when customers are the ones deciding, one failing parameter can be
enough to kill the application.
8.1.7
Network Effect and Branding
The balance in this criterion is tilted towards branding, either the network part can be
estimated more directly by one or more of the drivers otherwise it could be left out
entirely and transferred to the installed base criteria. Either way the interdependence
between these criteria should be lifted in the evaluation process according to the
research manager.
The Sony Ericsson brand has very strong brand recognition and our interviewee
confirms that issues regarding the Sony Ericsson brand are of highest priority when
problems occur. Each product should be followed by a criterion; hurt our brand,
which is deeply evaluated in order to avoid damage linked to the brand according to
the executive.
8.2
Analysis
Overall the evaluation seems to verify that most of the important criteria are included
in the decision process in one way or another. Therefore the basic RaMHAE
framework is left intact. Most of the input also pointed at the appropriateness of using
more than one driver for each criterion, to give a better idea of the status of the
criteria. Given the rather straightforward evaluation of each driver the decision
process would not be too complicated using a pair of drivers for each dimension. We
will review each of the criteria briefly and make definitions of the drivers considered
to be most suitable. The standard scoring is kept from the generic RaMHAE, red
(unacceptable), yellow (questionable) or green (acceptable or better).
8.2.1
Cost & Time
Starting with the cost & time the interviews pointed out that especially time was
important from an economic point of view, although time was connected to a market
opportunity and not to a benchmark of the competitors’ time to market. This poses a
problem in the evaluation since both time to market and market window has to be
estimated. Since the goal of this driver is to reach the market at the correct point in
time and the market must be built first, a benchmark against the competitor’s
offerings will prove fruitful. Although as a measure of when the market will turn
profitable, the goal is not to beat the competitors to the market. It is to reach it when
the pioneers have developed the market and before being considered as
technologically behind. A good or acceptable launch time will score green, while an
early or late launch date will score yellow or red depending on how much off they are
in the timing. The market shall be somewhat developed but it is important to not be
late when the service/technology has turned into a commodity.
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Market timing: Estimated timing of the market opportunity evaluated by an ordinal
scale.
Scoring: Standard (timing)
On the cost side the development cost criterion is included in the unit cost criterion,
as it is defined as the estimated cost of the development effort divided by the
estimated volume plus the marginal cost of each unit (if there are any). Therefore the
latter criterion is selected for the implementation.
Unit cost: Estimated cost of development effort / estimated number of users +
estimated marginal cost of each copy, evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to
other SEMC services.
Scoring: Standard (cost)
The fast track option for projects that have an estimated development cost that are
less than one man year suggested in one of the interviews have merits, as the effort of
finding information and making decisions should be kept at a minimum. If the smaller
projects can be approved by gut feeling larger projects get more management time.
8.2.2
Complexity
Since both business and technical complexity where considered highly relevant in the
assessment interviews both are included in the model. The business complexity can
easily be evaluated by estimating or even knowing the number of actors involved in
bringing the service to the market.
Business complexity: Estimated or decided number of businesses besides the
developing company involved in enabling the service.
Scoring: Green (0-2 companies), Yellow (3 companies), Red (> 3 companies)
The technical complexity was initially estimated based on the need to make
adaptations to the platform (operating system) of the phone, adding application
programming interfaces. But after the evaluation other types of technical complexity
linked to abstraction layers were brought up, also the number of API’s that need to be
included isn’t a very good way of grading complexity, if one API is needed another
one wouldn’t add much complexity. As the example with UMA showed there are
many abstraction layers in a handset, therefore we choose to base grading on that. The
evaluation is simple in this case, if changes are needed at a certain level the
corresponding complexity score is assigned.
Technical complexity: Lowest level of abstraction required in the application
development.
Scoring: Green (Application), Yellow (Operating system/own platform), Red (third
party platform)
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The reason behind the separation of when support is needed in the own platform(s)
and third party is similar to the argument behind the business complexity. Other
organizations have other goals and prioritizations than enabling support for features
that Sony Ericsson needs. Even if the internal process of adding support is handled
between different organizational units they share common leadership and goals and
that should reduce the complexity.
8.2.3
Cost of Usage
As the evaluation confirmed the importance of both the cost of traffic and the cost
immaterial property we include both in the implementation. Although the opinions on
which one is the more important weren’t consistent, both sides had good arguments
and ultimately the situation will decide which is the most important. The trend
however will decrease the importance of the data traffic cost since more and more
operators around the world introduces flat rate services for an ever decreasing fee.
One critique that had to be corrected was that the generic RaMHAE suggested that
the cost of the consumed data traffic should be used as a measure of the network
operator related cost. A more general estimate was needed according to the input
from the interviews, first the amount of data traffic was suggested, however since
there are cost of network usage that are not always related to actual amount of
transferred data it is more appropriate to estimate the incurred cost referable to the
operator. Examples of this could be subscriptions of specific kinds of data and SMS.
Therefore we decided to go with a broader definition: the operator related usage cost,
the uncertainty connected with the operator setting arbitrary prices can’t be avoided
as they control the networks.
Operator related usage cost: Estimated cost generated from usage of the cellular
network on average. The driver should be evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to
other SEMC services.
Scoring: Standard (cost)
On the intellectual property side the obvious price to benchmark against is the
alternative ways of achieving the same material. It can also be beneficial to look at
more than one business model, dependent of the type of service and how much
material that will be bought. Since licenses for applications like codecs usually are
included in the phone price, only the cost generated by usage is considered.
Intellectual Property cost: Estimated cost of buying media and licenses under one
or more business models, evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to competing
services.
Scoring: Standard (cost)
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8.2.4
Installed base
As the generic RaMHAE suggested three different ways of defining the installed base
the interviews focused on finding out which of them that were the most important.
Since different interviews pointed out both the preinstalled base and the number of
compatible devices as important, these two are included in the decision model. The
preinstalled base is important to make an extremely well integrated service and to
drive use in groups less technologically proficient. The compatible base is important
for all applications that uses viral spreading techniques and are also considered
important as a vehicle for marketing. The preinstalled base is best benchmarked
against the total number of produced Sony Ericsson handsets while the compatible
base is best compared against the number of handsets estimated on the market.
Preinstalled base: Estimated fraction of handsets that are shipped with the
application preinstalled, evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to other SEMC
applications.
Scoring: Standard (fraction)
Compatible base: Estimated fraction of the handsets (hardware) on the market that
can run the application with full or almost full functionality, evaluated by an ordinal
scale compared to other SEMC services.
Scoring: Green (higher than average), Yellow (average), Red (lower than average)
The third; all compatible devices are not included since this driver were identified as
a bad argument for developing a new service. If compatibility is a main feature one
has to ask way not just use the system the new service is compatible with in the first
place.
8.2.5
Perceived Value Added
The usefulness and ease of use are important to different target groups there both of
them are included in the RaMHAE implementation. Although we got input on the
value of quality we decided not to include quality as a driver for this criterion. The
reason being that the aspect of quality that are technical will be included in the
technology maturity factor and the softer aspects (such as user interface) are included
in the ease of use and usefulness drivers. Both drivers should be benchmarked versus
competing services.
Ease of use: Estimated or required need for learning to be able to operate the
service, evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to competing services.
Scoring: Standard (need for learning)
Usefulness: Estimated ability to satisfy the relevant customer need, evaluated by an
ordinal scale compared to competing services.
Scoring: Standard (satisfaction)
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8.2.6
Technology Maturity Factor
As the evaluation pointed out cost of the software itself is already accounted for in the
model, the cost intended is the cost of hardware support of the service. This criterion
tries to answer if the service can run on current hardware or if the investment in
hardware with satisfying performance is acceptable. Another way of putting it is to
estimate what level of perceived benefit the user can expect at a given price (or with
no hardware investment at all). Since quite a few services don’t require any extra
investment in hardware at all the latter driver seems more applicable. This driver is
closely connected to the benefit view of the QUPER-model presented in the theory
chapter and we use the same classification as Regnell, Berntsson Svensson & Olsson
(2008).
Quality Performance: Estimated level of performance of the service on given
hardware (old or estimated new). Evaluated by assumptions on user preferences and
(estimates) benchmarking of competing services.
Scoring: Green (excessive - useful), Yellow (possibly useful), Red (useless)
The other side of this criterion deals with the maturity of the software (and possibly
the dedicated hardware) and the level of functionality it’s estimated to deliver. This is
as our evaluation interviews indicate dependent not only on the internal stability of
the software it also depends on industry support. Take Voice over IP as an example,
the data transfer rates in the networks in certain areas dictate if the service will be
possible to use or not.
Technological Maturity: Estimated level of functionality as a fraction of the use
cases (geographically, indoor – outdoor, during transport etc.) where the service
works properly, evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to competing services.
Scoring: Standard (functionality)
If the evaluation finds out that it would be expensive to reach a reasonable level of
functionality, in terms of better hardware being needed this should work as an
indicator to kill or delay the project without further evaluation. If a single service
significantly increases the price of the hardware it is unreasonable to believe that the
total business case could be favourable. So just as small projects can get a fast track
approval, projects that have high hardware demands can be disapproved with a fast
track mechanism to save management time.
8.2.7
Network Effect and Branding
As the evaluation indicates that essentially the current criterion deals with branding
only we rename the criterion “Branding”. The network effect side of the decision is
already taken into consideration under the installed base criterion; the figure of the
RaMHAE already indicates this interdependence.
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As for branding, the most important aspect seems to be that the new service does not
damage any of the connected brands. Therefore it is important to find out what people
will recognise the service with if they don’t connect the service with positive aspects
the product can do more harm than good. This is likely to be especially important for
software that can be spread to non SEMC hardware via viral spreading mechanisms.
We suggest two drivers, one positive the fraction of the public that are estimated to
have a favourable opinion of the service compared to competing services. The
negative driver being the fraction that are estimated to connect the service with
something negative and thus lets the service be a reason to not purchase Sony
Ericsson hardware. An example of the latter could be if SERC IM are spread virally
and doesn’t work satisfactory, then it would work as a deterrent for those with the
negative experience hindering them from purchasing a Sony Ericsson handset.
Favourable rating: Estimated fraction of the public that will have a positive opinion
of the software compared to competing solutions, evaluated by an ordinal scale
compared to other SEMC services.
Scoring: Standard (fraction)
Unfavourable rating: Estimated fraction of the public that will have a negative
opinion of the service, evaluated by an ordinal scale compared to other SEMC
services.
Scoring: Standard (fraction)
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9 Implementation
Ericsson
of
the
RaMHAE
at
Sony
As the model has been improved and equipped with well defined drivers the last
obstacle for implementation is the lack of a usage process. Based on the balance
which has been a something of a mantra for this thesis as well as the requirements of
fast tracking that has been pointed out in section 8.2 a process has been constructed.
9.1
The Process
In order to be able to carry out the evaluation it is important to establish the
prerequisites for the actual implementation of the service. It is especially important to
define when the product should be launched (including choice of platform), which
markets the service is intended for (relevant markets) and the means of payment (if
any). Also it is helpful to in advance determine which the most important competing
services are in order to have a consistent benchmark for the ordinal scale evaluations.
Further specific choices concerning functionality and technological solutions should
be made in order to give each evaluation an unequivocal definition. Our
recommendation is that multiple versions of the launch case are created to also assess
when and how to launch the idea, for example which platform(s) to launch on and
different payment structures.
As the process should incorporate two fast track possibilities the first evaluation step
must be the fast track disapproval followed by the fast track approval, for obvious
reasons. The negative fast track is triggered if an economic or technological “show
stopper” is identified such as excessive cost or excessive cost of hardware support.
The positive fast track if the project are considered to be cheap enough to give it a
shot right away, typically costing less than one man year’s worth of effort.
The rest of the decision process is divided into the three dimensions and given equal
importance (in spite of the fact that they have a different number of drivers). All
drivers coupled with a dimension are evaluated and then an overall evaluation for the
dimension is made based on the drivers.
Since the initial evaluation is bound to be subjective, a positive decision must be
verified to ensure that the assumptions or implementation/business cases are
reasonable. The effort estimate in the fast track approval should also be verified to
ensure the resource consumption is estimated correctly. The chart over the RaMHAE
for Sony Ericsson is shown in figure 9.1.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Market
Ease of use
Usefulness
Preinstalled base
Compatible base
Data traffic
Intellectual Property cost
Perceived value
added
Total cost of
usage
Market
Complexity
Installed base
Branding
Development
Strategy
Cost & time
The maturity
technology
factor
Business complexity
Technical complexity
Market timing
Unit cost
Favourable rating
Unfavourable rating
Technology maturity
Quality performance
Strategy
Development
Decision
Figure 9.1 - The RaMHAE at Sony Ericsson with the drivers, the three main dimensions are
highlighted.
There is no specific order in which the dimension should be evaluated, although the
dimension which can be assessed best or easiest is a good starting point. If the overall
assessment of the three dimensions is negative (mostly red grades or for other reasons
considered too weak) the process can stop in a disapproval decision. If all three are
somewhat positive a positive decision are indicated, no “show stoppers” and
dominantly green grades are considered positive, although exactly what to be
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considered as positive is not obvious. The most reasonable approach is to use an
ordinal scale and benchmark versus all the previously evaluated projects. Other
potentially beneficial methods are to use the analytical hierarchy process, bubble sort
or any other prioritization model on the projects that score above average. The
suggested process is depicted in figure 9.2 and table 9.1 presents a template for the
evaluation process scoring sheet.
Set of
Set of
prerequisites
prerequisites
Cases
Unsatisfying quality
performance or high costs of
hardware support?
Define the business
model(s), prerequisites,
competition and time frame.
No
Total estimated development
effort less than one man
year?
Generate idea
No
Full evaluation favourable?
Yes
Yes
Dismiss
Verify effort
Overall evaluation result
better than competing
projects?
OK
Yes
Approve
OK
Verify evaluation
No
No
Figure 9.2 - The suggested decision process.
90
Green
Yellow
Red
N/A
Driver,
definition
&
evaluation
method
Criteria
Branding
Tech. maturity
Strategic
Dimension
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Favourable rating: Estimated fraction of the public that will have a positive opinion
of the software compared to competing solutions.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Unfavourable rating: Estimated fraction of the public that will have a negative
opinion of the service.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Technological maturity: Estimated level of functionality as a fraction of the use
cases (geographically, indoor – outdoor, during transport etc.) where the service
works properly.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Quality performance: Estimated level of performance of the service on given
hardware (old or estimated new).
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Cost of usage Installed base Value added
Market
Strategic dimension total
Ease of use: Estimated or required need for learning to be able to operate the
service.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Usefulness: Estimated ability to satisfy the relevant customer need.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Preinstalled base: Estimated fraction of handsets that are shipped with the
application preinstalled.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Compatible base: Estimated fraction of the handsets on the market that can run the
application with full or almost full functionality.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Operator related usage cost: Estimated cost generated from usage of the cellular
network on average
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Intellectual Property cost: Estimated cost of buying media and licenses under one
or more business models.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Complexity
Cost & Time
Development
Market dimension total
Business complexity: Estimated or decided number of businesses besides the
developing company involved in enabling the service.
Green=0-2, Yellow=3, Red=3+
Technical complexity: Lowest level of abstraction required in the application
development .
Green=Application, Yellow=OS/own platform, Red=Third party platform
Market timing: Estimated timing of the market opportunity.
Ordinal scale, Green=Good - acceptable timing, Yellow=Early or Late, Red=Too
Early or too Late
Unit cost: Estimated cost of development effort / estimated number of users +
estimated marginal cost of each copy
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Development dimension total
Green=acceptable or better, Yellow=questionable, Red=unacceptable
Table 9.1 - The dimensions, criteria and drivers summed up in a table.
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10 Case Evaluation
In order to attain an impression of the practicality of the RaMHAE at Sony Ericsson
two fictive services were made up and a decision regarding these were made using the
model. A Sony Ericsson employee was introduced to the cases and RaMHAE
implementation and asked to make the decision with our assistance. Afterwards the
use of the process was evaluated according to the criteria specified in chapter 10.2.
10.1 The Cases
10.1.1 A Voice over IP Service
As data traffic becomes increasingly affordable with the introduction of high speed
networks and flat rate pricing structures VoIP solutions becomes increasingly
attractive, especially for long range calls. The suggested service is a VoIP
implementation in JAVA running on an upcoming platform with the necessary APIs
to enable the service. It’s based on a protocol from a currently operational VoIP
service and is supposed to offer a quality of service comparable to the current circuit
switched calls.
The business case is simple; provide a cheap and reliable way of making voice calls
to lower the total cost of usage and therefore make the hardware more attractive. It is
required to work flawless under normal signal reception strengths. Strategically it is
supposed to enforce Sony Ericsson’s strategy to provide developing markets with
cheaper phone solutions to gain market share.
10.1.2 Subscription Music Streaming Service
This service is based on streaming of media in real time; a server-client IP connection
enables the transfer of digital content from the server at request from a customer. The
customer pays a monthly fee to gain unlimited access to a predefined library of
copyrighted material. The quality of the stream is dynamic to optimize quality under
good reception conditions and enable basic low quality service under poor reception
conditions.
Strategically Sony Ericsson follows a concept pioneered by Apple but with two major
competitive advantages; first no docking will be necessary to download music neither
will any storage space be necessary, secondly one of Sony’s subsidiaries Sony BMG
holds a vast music library that synergies can be drawn from.
From a market point of view the “unlimited storage”, no wait for downloads to be
completed and a pricing strategy that are considered as fair by the consumers make
the service attractive. At the same time as the content provider’s worries on
illegitimate use are minimized since the songs actually never are downloaded and
thus are difficult to make illegal copies of.
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10.2 Outcome
As stated earlier in this thesis our purpose was to construct a model that is holistic,
rapid, rational, transparent and useful to the organization, the model should also
support decision makers in their work (be easy to use). According to a research
manager RaMHAE especially contributes with value in terms of that the selected
criteria address vital questions and thereby form a high quality decision foundation,
thus fulfilling the aim of making a holistic model.
During the evaluation the proposed business cases took well under an hour to evaluate
even though most drivers where discussed extensively to find out which use cases that
were reasonable and the implications of changing the use case. Our opinion is that a
full review of a reasonable number of cases/markets/business models for a
professional that have good knowledge of the technology and competition could be
completed in less than an hour.
Applying the RaMHAE on to the fictive cases resulted in two interesting patterns
where both cases in the end where dominated by the green scores and thereby passed
the initial decision process. This result was in line with the decision that the research
manager would have done without any support of RaMHAE, indicating that the
model makes subjectively rational decisions. It was proven, the downside of the
model, lies in the fact that it is possible for the user to plot down the answers he
wishes to find. This was though immediately neutralized by the fact that the
credibility in the answers can be challenged by any counterpart at any time.
The RaMHAE was accepted without any observable difficulties and using the model
was described as a straight forward procedure. It was pointed out by the test person
that the purpose of using the RaMHAE must be communicated to the users in a very
clear way to prevent users from feeling narrowed or controlled. Another input was
how to handle a theoretical situation (choose among projects) where the outcome
from the model would show a number of entirely green-scoring projects? The tests
however indicate that the model is functioning according to plan. The overall finding
from the test runs can be concluded with the fact that RaMHAE fulfills its basic
purpose by supporting and functioning as a ground for decision making. This by
simultaneously using the existing know-how incorporated within the organization and
among employees to reach better informed decisions.
One critique is that RaMHAE just applies the current strategy to a certain extent, it
does not answer if a particular business area is right for Sony Ericsson. Applications
developing market segments Sony Ericsson already has invested in scores higher than
others, reinforcing these segments. The lack of a clear mechanism to follow the lead
of other companies was also pointed out as a weakness. Although some of the aspects
of the model, technological maturity, market timing and the cost measures indirectly
addresses this issue.
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Overall the RaMHAE implementation could be considered to score positive in all of
the aspects mentioned in the purpose, although there are several weaknesses there
seems to be some checks and balances built in to the model controlling them.
10.2.1 Example Subscription Music Streaming Service
Initially we decided to assume that the product would be developed for Heartbeat
HB08-1, the upcoming platform for 2008, it was also assumed that a flat rate data
traffic service was to be used. The benchmark group of products was limited to other
streaming services using equal fundamental technology. Based on these assumptions
the outcome of the evaluation of the music service can be seen in table 10.1.
All three dimensions score only yellow and green grades making the service feasible,
although if this particular product would score good enough to actually be chosen for
development depends on the competition from other ideas using the same
development resources. The strength of redundancy in the different drivers can easily
be seen in the evaluation sheet, for example if the project is chosen to be developed
internally unit cost in development dimension would score lower and the IP cost score
in the market dimension higher and vice versa. Another example of this is the choice
of platform, if an older platform e.g. the current was chosen market timing would
score higher and technical complexity lower.
94
Favourable rating: Estimated fraction of the public that will have a positive opinion
of the software compared to competing solutions.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Unfavourable rating: Estimated fraction of the public that will have a negative
opinion of the service.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Technological maturity: Estimated level of functionality as a fraction of the use
cases (geographically, indoor – outdoor, during transport etc.) where the service
works properly.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Quality performance: Estimated level of performance of the service on given
hardware (old or estimated new).
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Cost of usage Installed base Value added
Market
Strategic dimension total
Complexity
Cost & Time
3
1
3
3
1
3
Ease of use: Estimated or required need for learning to be able to operate the
service.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Usefulness: Estimated ability to satisfy the relevant customer need.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Preinstalled base: Estimated fraction of handsets that are shipped with the
application preinstalled.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Compatible base: Estimated fraction of the handsets on the market that can run the
application with full or almost full functionality.
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Operator related usage cost: Estimated cost generated from usage of the cellular
network on average
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Intellectual Property cost: Estimated cost of buying media and licenses under one
or more business models.
Ordinal scale compared to competing services
Market dimension total
Development
Green
Yellow
Red
N/A
Driver,
definition
&
evaluation
method
Criteria
Branding
Tech. maturity
Strategic
Dimension
How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
Business complexity: Estimated or decided number of businesses besides the
developing company involved in enabling the service.
Green=0-2, Yellow=3, Red=3+
Technical complexity: Lowest level of abstraction required in the application
development .
Green=Application, Yellow=OS/own platform, Red=Third party platform
Market timing: Estimated timing of the market opportunity.
Ordinal scale, Green=Good - acceptable timing, Yellow=Early or Late, Red=Too
Early or too Late
Unit cost: Estimated cost of development effort / estimated number of users +
estimated marginal cost of each copy
Ordinal scale compared to other SEMC services
Development dimension total
Green=acceptable or better, Yellow=questionable, Red=unacceptable
Table 10.1 The outcome of the evaluation of the subscription music streaming service.
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How to make decisions on software based service development in the mobile handset industry
11 Conclusion
The contribution to the knowledge base in the fields of decision making and
estimation primarily lies in the general approach which has showed a method of
building decision models from a holistic view point. The aim of making a normative
model is fulfilled by the synthesis of current practise and theoretical input. The
RaMHAE implementation at Sony Ericsson can be seen in figure 9.1, while the usage
process is presented in figure 9.2 and the evaluation sheet is shown in table 9.1. The
generic base for the model (before adaption to Sony Ericsson) can be seen in figure
7.1.
The approach used in this thesis, a three dimensional approach to the business, makes
the need to consider all factors important to the company, obvious to decision makers.
The RaMHAE for Sony Ericsson is perceived as fair and balanced when evaluated by
professionals and employs a rather simple green/yellow/red evaluation mechanism
that makes it rather easy to use. Changes in the cases were found to quite often
increase one driver’s rating while decreasing another which tells us that the model is
rather rigid.
The largest benefits with using the checklist were found to be that it helped the
decision maker move the subjective gut feeling from an overall level to a number of
more tangible drivers. This lets others survey the decision making and thus help both
the decision makers and colleagues to have a dialog over the assumptions made. The
list of prerequisites also helps to clarify under which conditions the service will be
most successful.
The largest drawback of using RaMHAE is that it is constructed like a kind of self
evaluation, if the user wants a certain answer he or she can change the use case and
make arguments that justify that answer. This limits the rationality in the model´s
decision making, although it can probably make the subjectivity a bit more obvious at
a review. Another drawback lies in the three graded scale where the user often finds
situations where an answer is in between two grades this opens up for a far more
dangerous type of subjectivity that is harder to identify. Constantly giving a service
the benefit of the doubt could generate a vastly over rated response.
Overall we believe that the suggested approach could be a support in making more
rational, less subjective decisions. Lowering the level of subjectivity and forcing the
decision maker to think about all dimensions of the business. The general approach
of the model is not constrained to any specific industry as the basic three-dimensional
structure describes a generic business. Although our implementation focuses on an
actual implementation at Sony Ericsson the RaMHAE should be able to be adopted in
other similar businesses and industries with rather small modifications. The process
of screening relevant criteria for the three dimensions from actual projects and
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academic research and building a model with the properties of this implementation
should be possible in any industry. However this is not tested and is a matter for
future research.
11.1 The Practical Problem at Sony Ericsson
Geographical proliferation of cell phones raises a serious question regarding the scope
of a service, it should not only be considered for a single market. The multiple
evaluation cases method introduced in the RaMHAE implementation enables the
company to assess the implication under multiple sets of prerequisites. This will
probably be helpful in lowering the risks of having a too narrow scope during the
evaluation.
To answer what makes a service successful a number of case studies pointed out a
number of criteria which were carefully chosen to both have scientific and industry
relevance. Since the criteria and drivers selected had two goals: being holistic and
practically useful in this particular industry and were tested accordingly our
perception is that they include most aspects of making a service successful.
The goal of the model from Sony Ericsson’s point of view was to enable a screening
of application ideas in order to balance risk and utilise resources in an efficient
manner. The sorting mechanisms built in to the RaMHAE helps allocating resources
to the overall most promising services and implementing them with the most suitable
business model. Risk of missing out on opportunities are lowered since the projects
are benchmarked with competing solutions, finding out where and when Sony
Ericsson must invest to fill gaps in their offerings and introduce applications on the
market with acceptable timing.
The RaMHAE was also required to be easy to use, this way it was more likely to be
adopted by the organization. Therefore a simplistic grading scheme was incorporated
and the number of evaluation questions minimized and summarized in a one page
table for convenient use.
The last point in the practical problem, to tackle the subjectivity of the gut feeling and
show the underlying deliberations were only successful in part. The overall evaluation
is broken down into a number of driver evaluations which in turn are evaluated
somewhat subjectively. However strictly making an objective decision would be
tedious and still be required to be based on estimates which in many cases are
impossible to make objectively.
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Tang J., Veijalainen J., Using Agents to Improve Security and Convenience in Mobile
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Sciences, IEEE Computer Society Press (2001), Los Alamitos
Timmers, P., Business models for electronic markets, Electronic Markets 8 (1998),
No. 2, pp. 3-8.
Urban G., von Hippel E., Lead User Analyses for the Development of New Industrial
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Van Slyke C., Comunale C., Belanger F., Gender differences in perceptions of Web
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Venkatesh V., Morris M., A theoretical extension of the technology acceptance
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Wang Y. S., Lin H. H., Luarn P., Predicting consumer intention to use mobile service,
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1-8
Yamakami T., Mobile application platform strategies: business model engineering
for the data intensive mobile age, Research and Development Division, ACCESS,
IEEE Computer Society (2005), pp 1-6
12.3 Other Articles:
Gartenberg M., Google’s Android Is An Audacious Move, Computerworld 42 (2008),
No. 4 , pg. 22
Gonsalves A., Apple Profits Soar 67% On iPhone, Mac Sales, InformationWeek
(2007)
[[http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=HV
00DTS2PFKVWQSNDLOSKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=202600448&_requestid=114863]]
Palmer M., Parker A., Sony Ericsson chief’s bold plan, Financial Times, Monday 11
Feb (2008)
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Sliva J., EU OKs cap on cell phone roaming charges, USA Today (The Associated
Press),( 2007) [[http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-05-233526666545_x.htm]]
12.4 Oral Sources
Bengtsson H., Sony Ericsson Research Centre, 2008-02-11
Blomkvist M., Sony Ericsson Portfolio Planning, 2008-02-21
Lindoff M., Sony Ericsson Chief Technology Office, 2008-01-10, 2008-01-17, 200802-05, 2008-04-01, 2008-04-23
Lindquist B. Sony Ericsson Technology Strategy, 2008-03-03
Olsson J., Sony Ericsson Application Planning, 2008-04-01
Regnell B., Sony Ericsson SW platform & Application Strategy, 2008-04-22
Stark P., Sony Ericsson Application Planning, 2008-04-01
Svennarp G., Sony Ericsson Technology Strategy, 2008-03-04
Sångberg T., Sony Ericsson Research Centre, 2008-02-27, 2008-04-18, 2008-05-05,
2008-05-06
Åkerlund M., Ericsson Consumer Labs, 2008-02-25
Öijer F., Sony Ericsson Application Planning, 2008-04-09
Östsjö A., Sony Ericsson Technology Strategy, 2008-01-24, 2008-04-01
12.5 Books
Brooks F. P. J., The Mythical Man-Month, 2nd Ed., Addison-Wesley (1995)
Freeman C., The Economics of Industrial Innovation 2nd Edition, Cambridge, MA:
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Grant R. M., Contemporary strategy analysis, 5th ed. (2005), Blackwell Publishing
Kotler P., Armstrong G., Marketing An Introduction, 5th ed. (1999), Prentice-Hall,
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March J., Simon H., Guetzkow H., Organizations (1958), John Wiley & Sons, New
York
Porter M. E., Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and
Competitors (1980), New York: Free Press
Ries A., Trout J., Positioning: The Battle for Your Mind (2001), R.R. Donnelley &
Sons
12.6 Web sources
Apple, iTunes Store, 2008-06-02
[[http://www.apple.com/itunes/store/music.html]]
Telia, Price list cellular phones, 2008-06-02
[[http://www.telia.se/files/TeliaMobil_priser_25mars.pdf]]
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Appendix I – Abbreviations List
Abbreviation Term
(Enhanced) General Packet Radio
Service
(E) GPRS
Third Generation mobilephone
standard and technology
3G
AHP
Analytical Hierarchy Process
API
CD
Application Programming Interface
Compact Disc
CMM
COCOMO
Capability Maturity Model
Costructive Cost Model
CPU
CTO
DRM
Central Processing Unit
Chief Technology Office
Digital Rights Management
FP
Function Points
GPS
GSM
IM
Global Positioning System
Global System for Mobile
communication
Instant Messaging
IMS
IP
IP Multimedia Subsystem
Internet Protocol
IP
Intellectual Property
ISP
Internet Service Provider
KPI
Key Performance Indicator
MB
MMS
Mega Byte or Mebi Byte
Multimedia Messaging Service
MNO
Mobile Network Operator
MP3
PCA
SEMC
MPEG-1 Audio Layer 3
Processing Complexity Adjustment
Policital, Economic, Sociocultural,
Technological - analysis
Sony Application Group
Software Engineering Institute
Sony Ericsson Mobile
Communications AB
SERC
SLIM
SLOC
SMS
TAM
Sony Ericsson Research Center
Software Lifecycle Management
Source Lines of Code
Short Message Service
Technology Acceptance Model
PEST
SAG
SEI
Explaination
A packet oriented mobile data service for GSM
A group of cell phone terminal and network standards including
UMTS and CDMA2000
A decision making method based on comparison of unique
requirement pairs
A source code interface that an operating system, library or
service provides to support requests made by computer programs
A regular music or data disc
A model developed to support assessment of companies' software
development capabilities
A model using SLOC to determine programming effort
A class of logic machines the can execute computer programmes
An organisational unit within Sony Ericsson
Technologies which provide access control for digital media
A measure of programme size using the number of functions in
the programme
A satellite based system to determine geographical coordinates
The most popular standard for mobile phones in the world
A network dependent real time chat service
An architectural framework for delivering internet protocol (IP)
multimedia to mobile users.
A way of transferring data over the internet
Creations of the mind such as musical, literary, and artistic works;
inventions; and symbols, names, images, and designs used in
commerce, including copyrights, trademarks, patents, and related
rights.
A company selling internet connectivity (data) wired or wireless
(e.g. Bredbandsbolaget)
Metrics used to help an organization define and measure progress
toward organizational goals
One million or 2^20 Bytes (one byte represents one character)
Multimedia message (photos, sounds etc.) for handsets
A business providing mobile connectivity via mobile radio
technologies to users (e.g. Telia, Vodafone)
A digital audio encoding format using a form of lossy data
compression
A way to adjust function points to function counts
An analysis tool for the market environment
A business unit in the Sony corp.
The institute that developed CMM
Sony Ericsson's intl. legal entity
The organizational unit in charge of testing and development of
conceptual technologies
A model using SLOC to determine programming effort
The size of the noncompiled programme code
Text messages for handsets
See section 3.2.1
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Abbreviation Term
Theory of Planned Behaviour
Theory of Reasoned Action
TPB
TRA
Explaination
See section 3.2.2
See section 3.2.1
A way of determining programming effort from the number of
use cases
A telecommunication system which extends mobile services
voice, data and IP Multimedia Subsystem/Session Initiation
Protocol (IMS/SIP) applications over IP access networks.
UCP
Use Case Points
UMA
Universal Mobile Access
Universal Mobile Telecommunication
System
One of the 3G technologies used predominantly in Europe
Wireless Local Area Network
A wireless local computer network
A business providing mobile connectivity via an MNO's network
(e.g. Glocalnet, Virgin Mobile)
Virtual Mobile Network Operator
Voice over Internet Protocol
A way of making voice calls over the internet
A programming language originally developed by Sun
Microsystems
JAVA
The platform generation cycle time within Sony Ericsson
Heartbeat
consitutes a heartbeat
UMTS
WLAN
VMNO
VoIP
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