06/2012 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Study In-depth knowledge for decision makers High volatility on stock markets: MSCI emerging market index with significant variations (market capitalization, USD billion) 8,000 7,200 6,600 5,200 3,500 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012 Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at the right time in emerging markets global topics 8 billion Emerging markets promise substantial new business opportunities. But they require management to navigate increasingly volatile markets that greatly complicate economic forecasting. To help executives make more accurate strategic decisions, this publication describes a very successful and versatile strategic scenario planning tool. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Scenarios planning can improve the forecasting of company-relevant trends in highly volatile markets like the automotive industry. Study 3 global topics 8 billion Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at the right time in emerging markets Introduction p4 Guidance in uncertain times – Scenario planning step by step p8 Conclusion p 20 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants introduction Highly sensitive, linked and volatile emerging markets complicate forecasting considerably Study 5 "In emerging markets, volatility is the new normality. We cannot look more than three years ahead in these countries." Siegfried Gänßlen, CEO of Hansgrohe, a leading German sanitary and fittings company Signs of more volatility are everywhere. The stock markets of emerging countries are one good example. Over the last five years, for instance, the Shanghai Composite moved between 1,500 and 6,000 points, and EGX, Egypt's leading share price index, swung between 12,000 and 5,000 points. During this same period, oil prices fluctuated from USD 40 to 140 a barrel – a range exceeding 250%. Other commodities, such as raw materials from emerging markets and the developing world, also show large price swings. For example, aluminum prices over the same five years ranged between USD 1,400 and 3,300 a ton, a difference of more than 100%. Volatility is found not only in the economic sphere, but in politics as well. A prime example here is the Arab world. Since the Arab Spring began in January 2011, one country after the next has experienced some degree of upheaval. Foreign companies are uncertain about the consequences for their Middle East business and investments, which recently totaled USD 15 billion annually. f1 Given this volatility, managers find it increasingly difficult to anticipate how changes and trends could impact their business. Traditional foreign investment planning cycles of ten years or more are no longer feasible. Plans must be reviewed and revised at much shorter intervals. What are successful companies doing differently? f2 As this book seeks to show, emerging markets have enormous business potential. Emerging countries plan to invest a total of nearly USD 30 trillion in their B2B and B2C sectors over the next 20 years, according to Roland Berger estimates. These immense disbursements will improve the lives of millions of citizens across the world. But leveraging the full potential of these investments can be achieved only by companies that correctly position their strategies. Companies must adapt skillfully to market movements. Rapid economic growth in China, for example, is turning many people into millionaires. The number of Chinese households worth at least USD 1 million leapt by over 60% in 2010. China recorded 1.1 million millionaire households that year, considerably more than the 670,000 it had in 2009. Many of these new millionaires prefer products that cater to their unique cultural tastes. Foreign companies now need to design and deliver products to satisfy a more diverse customer base. A good example is Hansgrohe, which wins plaudits for international competitiveness based on high-style, high-quality minimalist Roland Berger Strategy Consultants F1 A consequence of the high volatility is that traditional planning cycles are no longer any good. Forecasts of business experts also differ significantly 5.4 Global GDP growth, 2000 -2011 (%) IMF 4.8 4.5 IMF 2007 IMF 2000 2011 2005 3.9 IMF 2.9 Consensus 2001 2.4 IMF Time horizons of traditional corporate planning, 2000 – 2011 Strategic planning Traditional organizational structure Medium-term planning Operational planning 10 years 5-7 years 3-5 years 1 year 2009 -0.6 IMF Source: IMF, Roland Berger Study 7 F2 Emerging countries plan to invest a total of nearly USD 30 trillion in their B2B and B2C sectors over the next 20 years, according to Roland Berger estimates USD 30,000, 000,000,000 faucet designs. But after entering China, the company soon discovered that Chinese homeowners do not favor sleek and trim faucets. They want very visible, substantial handles and bodies. After some in-house soul-searching, Hansgrohe designed a line of heavyweight mixers exclusively for China. These bathroom fixtures are now marketed very successfully to Chinese homeowners, but they don't feature in the product catalog outside China. When planning to enter emerging markets, successful companies respond to trends outside their core industry. Siemens serves as an excellent example of how to derive strategy from megatrends. The company set up a dedicated department for sustainable urban development. By tracking and analyzing broad long-term trends, such as population change and urbanization, Siemens became a global pioneer in sustainable urban development, especially among emerging and developing countries. Siemens also bet on higher emerging market demand for cheap and easy to use SMART products: Simple, Maintenance-friendly, Affordable, Reliable and Timely to market. With these design principles, they design products pitched to the needs of newly industrializing and developing countries. A good example is portable X-ray equipment, which is now indispensable for doctors in Africa practicing in clinics distributed across a large geographical area. What are the risks? However, if executives do not correctly interpret emerging and developing economy market conditions, companies may experience difficulties. According to Roland Berger estimates, German companies investing in emerging markets with the wrong strategy miss potential revenues of several USD 100 million a year. What's more, industrialized countries will find their innovative edge quickly dulled if they miss tomorrow's trends. Asia's automotive industry has already leapt over several development stages in a single bound to dominate battery technology, a critical e-mobility component. Chinese, Indian and Arab companies increasingly bid for European and American acquisitions. In 2011, for the first time, Europe was the top destination for Chinese direct investment, totaling USD 10.4 billion. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Guidance in uncertain times – Scenario planning step by step An approach that guides companies to strategic success Study 9 What approach can guide companies to success in uncertain times? Changes in the macro environment outside of a company's industry, such as political, social, ecological, economic or technological developments, often play a decisive role in the success of the company's business model. A holistic perspective is therefore strongly recommended to incorporate macroenvironment factors in a flexible strategic plan. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants collaborated with HHL Leipzig to design a scenario planning methodology that can give com panies faster and earlier warning about important macroenvironment events, trends and changes. This analytical method works like radar to track movements far beyond a company and its industry. The methodology can detect "weak signal" influences that typically only become evident in the long run. "Blind spots" that are hidden in companies preoccupied by internal perspectives become transparent. To develop this holistic view, our scenario planning analytic techniques take into account the opinions of many internal and external stakeholders. Scenario planning is an appropriate tool for global companies in all industries – whether automotive or pharmaceuticals, manufac turing or services, aviation or energy utilities – that wish to position themselves successfully in emerging and developing countries. Our method for developing key future scenarios involves five core steps. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 1. Defining the scope F3 The first step defines the project focus, the markets to develop scenarios for and the time frame. To illustrate in general terms how the process works, we will use a recent scenario planning study from the global manufacturing industry. "Manufacturing industry" here refers to a wide spectrum of sectors, from mining and chemicals to metals manufacturing and materials fabrication. Manufacturing sectors are surging ahead in many emerging economies. Over the past five years, their share of global manufacturing output climbed from 30% to 50% f3 Manufacturing sectors are surging ahead in many emerging economies. Over the past five years, their share of global manufacturing output climbed from 30% to 50%. Annual revenues now reach around USD 20 trillion.1 Emerging economy govern ments recognize the special importance of a manufacturing base. Not only does industry employ a significant share of their labor force, but it also supplies strategically important products to improve critical sectors such as the national infrastructure. How a country's manufacturing industry will evolve is clearly strategically relevant to foreign producers and suppliers seeking to enter and expand in emerging markets. But manufacturing's diversity presents a challenge for developing coherent manufac turing industry scenarios. To tackle this challenge, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants has defined a set of scenarios and appropriate business opportunities within the general manufac turing industry. The concept development was grounded in the customer and industry needs and trends of 2020 and factored in input from internal stakeholders and external experts. 2012 50% 2007 30% 1) IHS Global Insight (2012) Source: IHS Global Insight Study 11 2. Selecting stakeholders Scenario planning can help companies better anticipate how macro-environment events could affect future performance and business opportunities. A key initial step is to canvass the views and opinions of the most important internal stakeholders, such as board members, top executives, key strategic and managerial staff, and industry experts. When assessing emerging country markets, we also identify appropriate external stakeholders and market experts, such as politicians, members of the chamber of commerce or local customers and suppliers. Identifying and accessing the most knowledgeable individuals may not proceed as efficiently as in familiar or advanced markets, but their voices are critically important. It's also advisable to interview people who work at competitors. One leading German electronics group, for example, always attempts to talk with local competitors' staff before launching operations in a newly industrializing country. Plant visits can also offer valuable insights into local conditions. In our survey, we approach a broad range of stakeholders and generally 40 to 50 respondents participate. 3. Conducting the survey To illustrate how we conduct the survey and apply its findings to create key scenarios, we'll refer to the previously mentioned global manufacturing industry study. We start by using Roland Berger's "360° stakeholder feedback questionnaire" to identify those factors most likely to affect the global manufacturing industry. First, we list influencing factors along the so-called STEEP dimensions – Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political/legal – and develop a questionnaire about them. We then distribute this questionnaire to internal stakeholders (across functions) and external experts (e.g. from local industry, think tanks, academia, etc.) across critical manufacturing sectors and geographical locations. The respondents identify 40 to 50 separate influencing factors, which are then clustered in a second survey to score each factor in terms of two key criteria: Impact – How significant is the influencing factor in a global context? Certainty – What is the probability the influencing factor will occur? Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4. Detecting weak signals and blind spots The next step is to compare internal and external stakeholders' assessments and consolidate findings. All factors that show potentially significant influence are identified, paying particular attention to "weak signals" and "blind spots". "Weak signals" are trends only a few stakeholders mention in the first survey, but nearly all second-round respondents rate as factors that could become highly relevant to a company's future performance. For example, the global manufacturing study detected that companies greatly underestimate the importance of securing access to rare earth metals. Future demand will be enormous. The industry already uses around 130,000 tons per year of these rare metals worldwide. Neodymium and yttrium, for example, are particularly important in electric car batteries and engines. Rising use of these materials is also boosted by electronic equipment like flat-screen televisions and industrial superconductors. Analysts predict that demand will reach 190,000 tons in 2015. To meet that demand, Europe is highly dependent on maintaining good relationships with supplier countries, notably China. "Blind spots" are differences in how internal and external stakeholders interpret a factor's importance. For example, our pharmaceutical and automotive sector studies show that when management gives excessive attention to internal perceptions and preoccupations, important market opportunities may be missed. Our survey of the automotive sector discovered another blind spot: some managers severely underestimate the market potential of simpler, more affordable vehicles. In India, small or economy cars account for over 70% of all new vehicle registrations. Another internal misperception was a failure to appreciate emerging economy manufacturers' competitive strengths. Over the last five years, passenger car production in developed countries decreased by 2% annually to 32 million, but in developing countries, car assembly doubled from 16 to 32 million cars. Emerging market manufacturers now also venture into European territory: Great Wall Motors will be the first Chinese automaker to assemble cars in the European Union when the company opens a car manufacturing plant in Bulgaria. The plant will have an annual production capacity of 50,000 units and assemble four different models – a sports utility vehicle (SUV), a pickup and two passenger car models – which are all expected to be sold in the European Union. Qoros, a Chinese brand previously unknown in Germany, recently announced plans to sell cars in Europe. Starting in mid-2013, some 150,000 vehicles will roll off Qoros production lines and capacity will ramp up to double the output within the next few years. The company intends to earn half its revenue in Europe. These examples show how European-based companies may miss market opportunities and lose revenue if they concentrate too intently on internal opinions and priorities. A recent pharmaceutical industry survey of all stakeholders detected insufficient in-house appreciation of biosimilars. These are bioengineered follow-on drugs officially approved after the original drug's patent has expired. Experts predict the biosimilar market, with total sales of USD 400 million in 2010, will grow in four years to USD 2 or 3 billion.2 The reason why biosimilars are an exciting option for the pharmaceutical industry is that more and more emerging countries will demand and have the resources to pay for improved healthcare. The trends are already apparent. Over the past five years, per capita health spending in the BRIC countries rose by USD 87. In absolute terms, this means people purchased an additional USD 252 billion3 in healthcare services. 2) Global Industry Analysts (2010) 3) Euromonitor (2011) Study 13 5. Deriving scenarios F4 To illustrate this step, we return to our study of the global manufacturing industry. Based on stakeholder evaluations, the factors that influence global manufacturing can be allocated into the following categories: Influencing factors are categorized by potential impact and certainty High Critical uncertainties or weak signals (low certainty but highest impact on the scenarios) Definite trends* (high certainty, high impact) Potential impact Secondary elements These elements elements are eliminated (low impact) LOW LOW Certainty * Definite trends: Growth of developing countries as end-use markets (e.g. China and India) Use of nanotechnology, miniaturization and microelectronics Transition to lightweight materials (e.g. composites) Source: Roland Berger high Roland Berger Strategy Consultants F5 Scenario building process following a step-by-step approach Long list of relevant uncertainties Move to trend No Check importance of "un-clustered" uncertainty Yes Build scenario matrix using key uncertainties Re-cut dimensions No Cluster by common theme? Important uncertainty Yes Uncertain? Trends stable in each future? Yes No Re-cut common themes & scenario dimensions Source: Roland Berger We found that resource intensity and economic protectionism are the major key uncertainties likely to have the largest impact across the entire industrial sector. These uncertainties become the scenario matrix axes pictured in figures 5 and 6. Matrix dimension: resource intensity Resource intensity refers to the level of natural resource consumption, such as the use of metals or water. Government subsidies and regulations can substantially determine an industrial economy's resource intensity, and consumer pref erences for green and sustainable products play a role as well. Impact of the resource intensity dimension Resource intensity exerts considerable influence on product development, production processes and end-product handling. New alternative materials and more economical production technologies may ease future resource constraints. But this possibility doesn't negate the substantial historical and continuing investment in large-scale manufacturing using conventional technologies and energy sources. Study 15 High protectionism F6 Four major future scenarios for the global manufacturing industry Protectionism (incl. trade blocs) Compliance with green regulations but no level playing field Customer-driven mfg. aligned with domestic demand I Antagonistic age II Polarized world Low resource intensity Free movement of goods and ideas Collective emphasis on sustainability and waste reduction Modular mfg. with madeto-order products Globalization restrained by national interests Poor compliance with green/waste regulations Manufacturing close to demand High resource intensity IV Green capitalism III Squandering society Free trade, incl. threats of dumping Low sustainability awareness – focus on personal utility Mass production with homogeneous products Source: Roland Berger Low protectionism Matrix dimension: protectionism Protectionism refers to market-distorting mechanisms, such as duties, tariffs and foreign ownership restrictions that nations and regions apply to advance their own trade interests and economic agendas. These techniques seek to preserve critical resources and can extend to intellectual property, patent protection and, more dramatically, industrial espionage. Impact of the protectionism dimension Economic protectionism significantly influences global markets, and frequently complicates production and logistics. These two key uncertainties, protectionism and resource intensity, let us explore comprehensive scenario storylines. We will now consider four plausible scenarios by validating trends and describing scenario dimensions in more detail, with particular attention to how companies in developed countries might enter emerging markets. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants An antagonistic age of low resource intensity and high protectionism In this vision of the future, countries with abundant raw materials focus on production technologies, while those without, such as those in Western Europe, design or develop alternatives. Novel materials are designed for specific applications and scientists create a new periodic table of nanomaterials. Industrialized and high-tech regions of Western Europe, North America and Australia benefit most from these developments because they can leverage and exchange their valuable expertise and skills for commodities. This defines trade flows with such emerging markets as China and Brazil. Winning industries include energy, especially those companies that can produce green energy, due to rising demand for renewables from equipment manufacturers. Micro-generation and co-generation technologies are particularly important. High protectionist barriers make it very difficult for European hightech companies to penetrate emerging markets. The automotive industry sees a boost in demand for electric cars. But as cars are no longer sold globally, major car exporting nations like Germany and the US lose substantial market share across Asia and Latin America. Resource constraints and environmental protection hit the cement and energy sectors particularly hard. Complying with regional environmental standards to satisfy regulations Securing access to natural resources (or cooperating with organizations for indirect access) Leveraging expert know-how and innovative technologies to develop substitute materials Attracting and retaining well-educated human capital with emerging market expertise Forging strategic trade relations with local emerging market suppliers Study 17 A polarized world with high resource intensity and high protectionism Enterprises in resource-rich countries prosper at the expense of large multinationals. This shift in economic power leaves resourcepoor economies such as Western Europe and Japan scrambling to source raw materials. Countries with natural resources focus on production technologies, while resource-poor countries design and develop alternative materials. Resource-rich regions, especially those with large regional markets and technologically advanced economies, flourish. These include North America, China, India, Russia, Brazil, Australia and the Middle East. But Japan and Western Europe lose out in this future vision because high protectionism inhibits trade in resources. Developing regions' demand for steel and cement soars as countries pursue ambitious agendas to modernize infrastructures and catch up with the developed world. Substantial chemical production shifts to China, Russia and the Middle East as manufacturers move closer to customers and markets. Due to high protectionism, developed nation manufacturers find it difficult to install production facilities in the new emerging markets. Energy remains a core industry dominated by fossil fuels. The mining sector invests in underground extraction as minerals become harder and harder to find. The automotive sector suffers from market fragmentation, and protectionism signals the end of global brand cars like the Ford Focus. European manufacturers lose significant market share as emerging countries focus on regional car brands. Securing access to natural resources (or cooperating with organizations for indirect access) Optimizing costs by exploiting resources cost-effectively to ensure competitively priced products Restructuring operations (incl. small-scale plants) to supply local/regional markets Forging strategic relations with local emerging market suppliers to provide technologies and services for the booming infrastructure sector Taking marketing actions to establish a regional brand among emerging market suppliers Roland Berger Strategy Consultants A squandering society with high resource intensity and low protectionism Developed nations can potentially profit by supporting emerging nations' efforts to mass-produce low-cost goods. A particularly apt example is Siemens' SMART product line. In this scenario, more global attention is paid to "reverse innovation", inventions created in developing countries and disseminated to the industrialized world. An example is the Tata Nano automobile, upgraded for Western markets and marketed as Tata Europe. Gigantic, complex supply chains create immense business value for companies that have the capability to orchestrate these chains and delay customization. Technology companies that can "glue" the manufacturing economy together will increasingly capture value. Large-scale fossil fuel power plants still dominate the energy sector, driving open-pit mining for coal and more exploitation of resources in Africa. Gas guzzlers dominate the automotive landscape. Millions of first-time car buyers in the emerging markets of China and India crave prestige cars from the West. Western manufacturers are able to exploit this lucrative market. Electric vehicle technology transfers from developed to developing countries, only to languish in a niche existence. Industrialized nations' renewable energy solutions take a backseat, as do micro energy generation technologies. Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs and ensure know-how transfer Guaranteeing access to well-educated personnel with local market know-how to develop innovative products and solutions Developing mass production capabilities to address emerging market demand Optimizing costs to offer competitively priced products Setting up a global supply chain to guarantee delivery of Western products like prestige cars to emerging markets and also to market reverse innovations back to industrialized nations Study 19 Capitalism goes green with low resource intensity and low protectionism Developed economies pursue strong market opportunities in a low protectionist environment conducive to foreign direct investment and knowledge transfer. There is high uptake in the renewable energy sector, which benefits developed country providers and equipment manufacturers. Micro energy generation technologies are widespread. With the required infrastructure in place, electric vehicles are prevalent. Western companies have the opportunity to export their car technologies to emerging markets. Novel materials are designed for specific uses and environments. Additive manufacturing moves out of niche applications into mainstream manufacturing. Increased use of steel and glass, especially in buildings, lowers demand for cement. A potentially large market develops for Western construction companies. The regional winners will be Western Europe, North America, Japan, Brazil, India and China. This future also sees an end to rising energy demand as fossil fuel power generation declines. Traditional Middle East fossil fuel economies are the losers in this scenario. Western dependence on oil-exporting countries such as Iran decreases significantly. Green capitalism stresses the mining industry as substitutes are found and consumers lobby against excessive and destructive mining practices. Complying with environmental standards to satisfy regulations and consumer requirements Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs and ensure know-how transfer Securing access to well-educated personnel to develop innovative products and solutions, such as lightweight materials and biodegradable components Instituting a green product life cycle, including a green global supply chain Adopting a modular manufacturing philosophy with made-to-order production Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Conclusion How to benefit from the different scenarios Study 21 Trying to identify business opportunities in an uncertain future is a tough challenge. But the scenario planning designed by HHL Leipzig and Roland Berger helps strategic planners and decisionmakers identify the most relevant future scenarios in specific industries and regions. Each of the four scenarios described for the global manufacturing industry represents an extreme vision of the future. The world may never resemble any of these positions exactly, but the trends and issues identified in each will shape the eventual outcomes. Industries in any region could exhibit characteristics from different scenarios depending on how protectionism and resource intensity affect industry-specific dynamics. Companies from developed nations will succeed if they can identify opportunities that cut across several scenarios and, with a little tweaking, find strategies to capture the full potential of any possible scenario. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Author Bernd Brunke Partner and Member of the Global Executive Committee, Berlin Benno van Dongen Partner, Amsterdam [email protected] [email protected] William Downey Partner, New York [email protected] Co-Authors Christophe Angoulvant Partner, Paris [email protected] Duce Gotora Project Manager, London [email protected] Dr. Wilfried Aulbur Partner, Mumbai Carolin Griese-Michels Principal, Hamburg [email protected] [email protected] Andreas Bauer Partner, Munich Maren Hauptmann Partner, Munich [email protected] [email protected] Study 23 Daniel Himmel Project Manager, Berlin Per I. Nilsson Partner, Stockholm [email protected] [email protected] Nicklas Holgersson Project Manager, London Dr. Verena Reichl Senior Expert, Munich [email protected] [email protected] Fabian Huhle Principal, Munich Tina Wang Partner, Beijing [email protected] [email protected] Dr. Johannes Klein Principal, Berlin Dr. Tim Zimmermann Partner, Munich [email protected] [email protected] Frank Lateur Principal, Brussels Dr. Michael Zollenkop Principal, Stuttgart [email protected] [email protected] Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Sources African Business Magazine (2012) ICT: Silicon Savanna ready to take on the world Allfacebook.de (2012) Facebook user statistics S. D. Anthony et al. (2006) Seven principles of disruptive innovation S. Arrison (2011) 100 plus: How the coming age of longevity will change everything, from careers and relationships to family and faith G. O. 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