How to stop Landon Donovan Evolution of Sport MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2014 Jesse Paquette @bzdyelnik • Inspired by Exploratory Gene Association Networks (EGAN) • 30+ publications using EGAN in life sciences • Applications in health, finance, retail, social • Works with a wide variety of rich datasets Landon Donovan 2011-2013 stats: 36 goals, 26 assists Measures of a player • • Goals-for • Subtract penalty goals? • Shots/post/good chances? Goals-against • +/- • Clean sheet • Assists • Pass completion % • % contests won • Ball touches • Consider minutes played Lionel Messi 97.2 touches per game 2010/11 "It's all very simple: if you score one more than your opponent, you win." - Johann Cruyff San Jose Earthquakes vs. LA Galaxy California Clásico Stanford Stadium June 29, 2013 3-2 Sarvas 20’ 0-1 Gordon 68’ 1-2 Jiménez 65’ 0-2 Salinas 92’ 2-2 Gordon 93’ 3-2 Sarvas 20’ 0-1 Sarvas 20’ 0-1 Sarvas 20’ 0-1 Jiménez 65’ 0-2 Jiménez 65’ 0-2 Jiménez 65’ 0-2 Gordon 68’ 1-2 Gordon 68’ 1-2 Gordon 68’ 1-2 Salinas 92’ 2-2 Salinas 92’ 2-2 Salinas 92’ 2-2 Gordon 93’ 3-2 Gordon 93’ 3-2 Gordon 93’ 3-2 Hypergeometric Enrichment Analysis (HEA) Hypergeometric Enrichment Analysis (HEA) • Used to find disease-related genes • Fisher’s Exact Test • Used for win % in televised poker games Venn Diagram All game events Within 5 events before a goal All Landon Donovan events Landon Donovan events within 5 before a goal Enrichment When the overlap is much larger than expected Enrichment in Goals-For (EGF) • Identifies players that contribute to goals-for within 5 prior events • • Higher EGF = better Advantage over goals and assists Ranking of MLS players Enrichment in Goals-For 2011-2013 Team Player LA Galaxy LA Galaxy Houston Dynamo New York Red Bulls Real Salt Lake Vancouver Whitecaps Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders Chicago Fire D.C. United Columbus Crew Portland Timbers New England Revolution Columbus Crew Landon Donovan Robbie Keane Brad Davis Thierry Henry Javier Morales Camilo da Silva Sanvezzo Mauro Rosales Fredy Montero Patrick Nyarko Dwayne De Rosario Federico Higuain Diego Valeri 23.8 20.2 19.6 16.7 15.9 15.7 15.6 12.4 11.7 11.1 11.0 10.3 31 34 16 39 13 39 12 25 9 26 16 10 Diego Fagundez 10.1 17 Jairo Arrieta Redacted per request 9.9 12 Kelyn Rowe 9.2 10 Graham Zusi David Ferreira Sébastien Le Toux Olmos Garcia 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.4 16 8 19 5 New England Revolution Sporting Kansas City FC Dallas Philadelphia Union Real Salt Lake EGF Goals Enrichment in Goals-Against (EGA) • Identifies players that contribute to goals-against within 5 prior events • • Higher score = worse Advantage over goals-against and +/- Ranking of MLS players Enrichment in Goals-Against 2011-2013 Team Player New York Red Bulls Montreal Impact Greg Sutton Donovan Ricketts Redacted per request Jay Nolly Aaron Maund Bill Gaudette Luis Robles Steve Cronin Patrick McLain Greg Sutton Adin Brown Jay DeMerit Sean Johnson Andy Gruenebaum Clinton Irwin Matt Reis Matt Pickens Joe Willis Ryan Meara Ryan Cochrane Vancouver Whitecaps Real Salt Lake New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls D.C. United Chivas USA Montreal Impact Portland Timbers Vancouver Whitecaps Chicago Fire Columbus Crew Colorado Rapids New England Revolution Colorado Rapids D.C. United New York Red Bulls New England Revolution EGA 4.6 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 How to stop Landon Donovan? Field players with high EGF vs. LA Galaxy Team Player Real Salt Lake New England Revolution Toronto FC Javier Morales Diego Fagundez Robert Earnshaw Redacted per request Kelyn Rowe Andrew Farrell Mike Chabala Redacted per request Chad Barrett Edson Buddle Marko Perovic Eric Avila Lionard Pajoy Nigel Reo-Coker Mauro Rosales Eric Alexander Omar Cummings Devon Sandoval Ryan Smith Eddie Johnson New England Revolution New England Revolution Portland Timbers New England Revolution Colorado Rapids New England Revolution Toronto FC Philadelphia Union Vancouver Whitecaps Seattle Sounders FC Portland Timbers Colorado Rapids Real Salt Lake Chivas USA Seattle Sounders FC EGF vs. LA 8.3 5.7 5.5 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 Avoid situations where he is strong Team EGA vs LA Chivas USA Portland Timbers Sporting Kansas City Vancouver Whitecaps Philadelphia Union Real Salt Lake San Jose Earthquakes Toronto FC D.C. United Chicago Fire Colorado Rapids Montreal Impact FC Dallas Houston Dynamo New York Red Bulls New England Revolution Seattle Sounders FC Columbus Crew Opponents 13.0 7.7 7.0 5.7 5.5 3.1 2.7 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Player EGF w/ Donovan Robbie Keane 20.7 David Beckham 4.3 Mike Magee 2.6 Pablo Mastroeni 2.2 Marcelo Sarvas 1.9 Paolo Cardozo 1.6 Chad Barrett 1.1 Gyasi Zardes 1.0 Christian Wilhelmsson 0.9 Juan Pablo Angel 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Player s Future work • Include “good chances” and posts? • Is 5 events the right number? • Situational slices • Per-game, per-half, home/away, specific opponents, transfers etc. • Other leagues • Other sports (basketball, hockey, American football, baseball) Acknowledgements Tom Covington Eamonn Maguire Kenn Brodhagen Taku Tokuyasu Richard Fedesco Sean Rubio Data source: Opta Sports [email protected] @bzdyelnik @SJEarthquake s