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How to Pick The Winner Of The
2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup
By Max Hitchins
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
Remember: There are 3 steps you need to take to receive my last minute tips on Melbourne
Cup Day Morning (Tuesday 6th November 2012). (See page 29)
(1) After 8.00 am go to www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
(2) Click on the Members Only icon (at the top on the right hand side)
(3) Enter User Name: member and password: shocking2009
The SportingBet connection: Before wagering I invite you go to page 28 of this eBook. You
will meet Andrew Brown from www.SportingBet.com.au. From this page you can click through
to SportingBet.com.au and you will see how you can ‘double your money’ before you have a
wager on the Cup. Ummmmm. That’s worthwhile knowledge.
NB. I recommend you try out accessing the password protected page
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au as soon as possible. If you have problems downloading the
eBook call Sallee on 0414 776 149 or me on 0419 53 63 73 between now and 1.00 pm on
the day of the Cup. (6th of November).
Warning: The password and access to this protected site is only for YOU. So, please DO
NOT reveal the password to this page to anyone.
Otherwise, ‘the gods of bad luck’ may cast bad luck upon your wagering
in the Melbourne Cup. Ummmmmm.
(Luck and omens are ‘big things’ amongst the racing fraternity!)
I recommend you print out this front page.
1
The very good news is that you are already a winner.
The 2012 Melbourne Cup will be Race 7 at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday 6th
November, and have a start time of 3:00 pm (EST time).
In investing the $9.95 for this eBook, in the hope that I will provide you
with the winner of the Melbourne Cup, you have already won:
1.
$200+ in FREE food and beverage at various pubs throughout
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become a VIP member. (It’s Free). At the site you will find Pubs
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beverages for amounts ranging from $10 - $25.
2. This list of Pubs is continually being added to. So it may well
provide you with an ‘never empty’ well you can continually visit.
3. When you become a member of THEBestPub.com.au you will find every week prizes are
given away. For example - click on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyEi_zM0mpg
to check out the free footy tickets Amy Hamlyn won. And click on http://
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4. And click here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7yhg1hNNls to see how happy Kay
and Rachel were when they won a Free Trip for Two to the Melbourne Cup.... and click
here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtzPil0ogig to meet Scott and Lucy who also
won a free trip to the Melbourne Cup. WOW!
5. And finally, from this eBook you can click through to SportingBet.com.au where you can
elect to open an account with them, deposit any amount between $30 and $200 and
you will automatically be credited with the same amount you deposit. So you are
doubling your money before you start! See more details on p.28 of this eBook.
A 2012 Melbourne Cup Overview
Entries for the Melbourne Cup closed on Monday 3rd September, 2012. This was when the
owners and trainers had to pay a fee to have their stayer included in the ballot. Then the
handicaps are declared a few weeks later. Each horse is then handicapped according to weight.
Then the first, second and final declarations take place, with first declaration on Tuesday 10th
October, 2012 and final declaration on the Saturday prior to the Melbourne Cup Day (Saturday
3rd November). This selection is based on a balloting system. Race directors also retain the
absolute power to exclude any horse from the race, or exempt any horse from the ballot on
the race. Each horse is then subjected to a thorough veterinary check. If any horse fails this
check then such horse will not be accepted to race. 351 horses were initially nominated and
this list is gradually reduced to the Final Field of 24 best stayers in the world.
Any winner of the following 2012 races are exempt from the ballot:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Lexus Stakes
Victoria Derby
Mackinnon Stakes
Cox Plate
Caulfield Cup
St Leger (Ireland)
Tenno Sho (Spring) (Japan)
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The 2012 Final Field will be released Saturday the 3rd of November around 7.30 pm. So if you
go online on Saturday evening you will be one of the first to know the final field and maybe
can still get good odds. Come Sunday and the odds will have shortened considerably, in some
cases. Remember, no refunds are given for ‘before nominations’ betting (all-in betting) if the
horse is not nominated or is scratched.
+++++
First Nominations for the 2012 Melbourne Cup
Nominations for the 2012 Melbourne Cup closed on Tuesday September 4th with 151
horses.
In 2011, 163 horses entered which included 25 international entries. The final
Melbourne Cup field was (as always) restricted to 24 starters since the introduction
of starting gates in 1958.
Below is the timetable and fees for the entry stages to keep a horse in the 2012
Melbourne Cup.
Nomination
12 noon Tuesday 4th September Fee $1,320
Late Nomination
12 noon Tuesday 11th September Fee $5,500
Handicaps Declared
Tuesday 18th September
First Declaration
12 noon Tuesday 9th October Fee $2,200
Second Declaration
10.00 am Monday 29th October Fee $3,850
Final Declaration
4.30 pm Saturday 3rd November Fee $49,500
Entry fees for the Melbourne Cup
Based on the above entry fees, in 2011 the VRC generated $1,598,000 – more than
26% of the $6 million prize pool.
As already mentioned the 2012 Melbourne Cup will be run on Tuesday the 6th of November.
Happily I tell that my 'reducing the field' format was successful again in 2011. That means it
has worked for 22 times in the last 24 years. That's not bad! When I reduce the chances down
to six I then select my best three horses and then my ultimate choice of a winner. I happily tell
I have selected the winner 14 out of the last 24 times. Not perfect...but not bad.
Although, not a regular gambler I am a 'serious' Melbourne Cup student. I study the Melbourne
Cup all year round. I invite you to check out and subscribe to my Melbourne Cup Blog at
http://themelbournecup.wordpress.com/. As well, if you would like to download my system
(for free) I welcome you to do so at http://www.pickthecupwinner.com.au/
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As mentioned I've even memorised the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place getters since 1900!
Usually all once a year punters, at Melbourne Cup time, try desperately to 'Pick the Cup
Winner.' My goal, indeed the purpose of this eBook, is to reduce the choice to one out of six
horses rather than trying to pick the winner out of twenty four horses. I recommend you then
have $2 each way on the six horses. You probably won’t win much but you'll be able to say
"I backed the Cup winner!"
This eBook is not written for the professional punter. It is for the once a year happy punters
who accept the annual challenge of trying to pick the Cup winner. But, in saying that, there
really is some seriously good information in this eBook that the professional punter would
appreciate. In this eBook you will find all the information about the 'lead up' races both in
Australia and overseas. You will also be able to access some audio or video footage of some
of these races to check them out for yourself.
The ‘learning’ from the lead up events
Part of the secret to my successes, in being able to narrow down the Melbourne Cup field each
year, is the amount of time I spend in research each year. I really do research the Melbourne
Cup all year round. And I certainly look very closely at all the ‘lead up‘ events. Hence, I
believe the winner of the 2012 Melbourne Cup will more than likely have either run a place
or run a ‘very good race’ in one of the lead up races listed in this eBook.
Example #1. The winner of the 2011 Melbourne Cup - Dunaden - ran an outstanding race in
the 2011 Geelong Cup which is run about a week before the Melbourne Cup. You can check out
this run at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrlNIaa421k. But, be warned you have to
wade through most of the Geelong races on that day, at this site, before you come to the
Geelong Cup.
Example #2: The winner of the 2010 Melbourne Cup Americain - also ran an outstanding race in the 2010 Geelong
Cup This was the performance that lead me to believe
Americain could beat the ‘hot’ favourite trained by Bart
Cummings - So You Think. I said so in a Television interview
with Susie Eleman and Bianca Dye on Cup Day 2010. See:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIzzQ26rCPU
Example #3: The winner of the 2009 Melbourne Cup Shocking - ran in and won the Lexus Stakes on the Saturday before the 2009 Cup. See
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQpjhzZJ1F0 I was at Flemington that day and watched
this very impressive performance. Up until this time I did not think I would be including
Shocking in my selections...but that run changed my mind. And this is another reason why
I wait until Cup day morning before giving my final selections.
Example #4: In 2006 the 1st and 2nd placegetters in the Melbourne Cup ran excellent ‘trials’
in the Caulfield Cup. I am referring to the Japanese horses Delta Blues and Pop Rock who
finished 3rd and a close 7th in the Caulfield Cup.
Example #5: In my 2005 eBook I noted Makybe Diva won the Turnbull Stakes. I wrote
“Makybe Diva easily accounted for First Charter who led for much of the trip. Lad Of The
Manor, Grey Song, Sir Dex, and Plastered were well on the pace. Makybe Diva was
lobbing along 15 lengths at the rear of the field. That is, until they turned for home. Then
Makybe Diva’s replacement jockey Stephen King ‘pressed the start button’ and Makybe Diva
went woosshhhhh and won easily. WOW! It was one heck of a run. The field of 16 boasted
several Group 1 winners and the race was considered to be a strong pointer to the chances of
many in the top events of the Melbourne Spring Carnival.”
4
And, in this section in my 2005 e-book I noted that On A Jeune won the Geelong Cup. (…and
went on to run 2nd in the 2005 Melbourne Cup)
As well, in my 2005 eBook I noted the winner of the Kelt Capital Stakes in New Zealand was
Xcellent. I wrote “Xcellent was a long last coming to the turn and then showed an incredible
turn of speed to win easily. WOW! The Kiwi’s will put a fortune on this horse in the Melbourne
Cup. (…and with good reason!)”
Of course you know that Makybe Diva won the 2005 Melbourne Cup, On a Jeune ran 2nd and
Xcellent was 3rd.
The lead up events in 2012
Click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5Wi97sozAg to hear from
leading jockeys Damien Oliver, Craig Williams and Michael Rodd and see
Racing Victoria CEO Rob Hines officially launch the 2012 Spring Racing
Carnival
Lead up event - The Perth Cup - 1st January 2012
2400 Metres – Group 2
1st Western Jewell
2nd God Has Spoken
3rd
Senhor Da Gama
The Perth Cup was formerly run over 3200 metres but was reduced to 2400 metres in 2009.
From http://www.heraldsun.com.au: KYRA Yuill made her own piece of history in
the Group 2 Perth Cup at Ascot when she became the first female winner, guiding
Western Jewel ($8 to $7) to a convincing victory over 2400m.
It was also a dream cup debut for Yuill as she emulated cup rivals Peter Knuckey and William
Pike, who also claimed the race as apprentices. It was the worst result for bookmakers as the
Jeune five-year-old chestnut mare had been plunged from $13.00 to $8.50 the day before the
cup.
In the previous Perth Cup, Western Jewel had finished fourth and owner Bob Peters regarded
that as a very unlucky run and he set her to win the race again. "I rated her and Tranquility as
my main chances but I wasn't happy with all four of them in running as they were all well
back,'' he said.
Yuill however, wasn't concerned: "I had cover into the straight and I knew she would finish
strongly.'' God Has Spoken (Steven Parnham - $10) battled on well under his 57kg to run
second ahead of Senhor Da Gama (Patrick Carbery - $9) next best.
Kincaple, the favourite, finished 12th and stewards informed that he was lame in the off fore
leg and also had respiratory problems. Western Jewel appreciated the drop in weights after
carrying 57.5kgs in the A.T.A. Handicap (2200m) on Christmas Eve. Her 52kg in the cup was
the same weight that she carried last January. The mare has now started 27 times for 8 wins,
7 placings and prize money more than $500,000.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnflA61yyp8
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Lead up event - City of Auckland Cup - Ellerslie NZ - 1st January 2012
2400 metres Group 2 Open Handicap
1st Single Minded
2nd Marea Alta 3rd Top Shot
From http://www.nztm.co.nz Single Minded (NZ)
(Bachelor Duke) continued his rapid progression
through the country’s staying ranks when he downed
a strong line-up in the Group 2 City of Auckland Cup
at Ellerslie.
The veteran of only eight previous starts, the dour
four-year-old carried out Matamata trainer Graham
Richardson’s Ellerslie plans to perfection.
The carnival results augur well for the trainer who will
now look south to the Gr.2 Wellington Cup on January
28 with his trio of middle distance performers.
Single Minded (NZ) was in front early under Craig
Grylls and then trailed before he peeled out near the turn and held a strong gallop to beat
Marea Alta (NZ) (Montjeu) and Top Shot (NZ).
“Craig rode him really well and he’s a very good staying horse who’s got the right attitude,”
Richardson said.
Grylls has been aboard Single Minded (NZ) in all four of his career victories. “He’s got a high
cruising speed and could have gone around again – he’s very good,” he said.
Bred and raced by The Oaks Stud, he is out of Capacity (NZ) (Zabeel) and Dick Karreman’s
Cambridge nursery will offer a full-brother to Single Minded (NZ) during the Select Sale
session at the 2012 NZ Bloodstock National Yearling Sales.
+++++
Lead up event - The Wellington Cup - Trentham NZ - 28th January
2012
2410 metres - Group 2 - Open Handicap 1st Six O’Clock News
2nd Spiro
3nd The Jungle Boy
From http://www.theinformant.co.nz/ The Wellington Cup was New Zealand's premier twomile race for more than a century but was controversially cut back to 2400m and downgraded
to Group 2 in 2009 robbing it of much of its glamour.
Six O’Clock News stirred memories of one of the greats in Wellington Cup history
when, carrying brown and gold colours as legendary stayer Castletown did two decades ago,
he won the 2012 renewal of the Trentham feature.
Castletown was prepared by now Macau-based Paddy Busuttin and today it was the turn of his
son Trent to enjoy the spoils of victory.
“Brilliant, just brilliant!” was the younger Busuttin’s immediate reaction after Six O’Clock News
had reversed last year’s Wellington Cup result when beating Spiro (the 2011 winner) in the
Pacific Jewellers-sponsored feature. “Any big win is fantastic but to me this race is special.”
6
Winning rider Leith Innes admitted to a certain lack of confidence that the seven-year-old
Zabeel gelding could produce a repeat of last Saturday's Trentham Stakes win, which had
broken a near three-year losing streak. Innes had been on Six O'Clock News in his Wellington
Cup second 12 months ago but was riding at Pukekohe when Australian jockey Nash Rawiller
brought him home first on the opening day of the 2012 carnival.
Innes's main query was whether, now that he had refound winning form, Six O'Clock News
could deliver again just a week later, but there was nothing ingenuine about the manner in
which he completed his task, maintaining a dour finishing run after pushing through at the top
of the straight.
He and last year’s winner Spiro were engaged in a head-to-head struggle with 200 metres
remaining, but there was no denying Six O’Clock News his day in the sun as he established
a winning break and kept going to score by a length.
Spiro had a half-length to spare over The Jungle Boy, adding another feature cup placing to
his New Zealand Cup second of last November. Second favourite Single Minded battled on for
fourth after being on the speed throughout, but his stablemate, $2.60 favourite Green
Supreme, was an abject failure tailed off last.
Green Supreme had enjoyed an economical run behind the leading bunch and was still well
positioned when the field bunched working off the back straight with 1000 metres to run.
When the wick was turned up soon after, however, James McDonald had no horse under him
as Green Supreme quickly lost touch and in the end cantered home lengths behind the secondlast runner.
Lead up event – The Dunedin Gold Cup - NZ - 4th February 2012
2400 Metres - Open handicap
1st The Solitaire
2nd Santos
3rd Zabene
From http://www.nztm.co.nz: The well-related mare The Solitaire (NZ) (O’Reilly) continued
her progression with a strong staying performance to claim the Listed Dunedin Gold Cup.
The promising four-year-old is trained on the Wingatui track by Steve Anderton for her
breeder/owners the Dennis brothers and is from a family they have bred from with outstanding
results for many years.
Group One winners within the ranks include The Phantom Chance (NZ) (Noble Bijou), The
Phantom (NZ) (Noble Bijou), The Jewel (NZ) (O’Reilly), The Twinkle (NZ) (Gate Keeper)
and Irish Chance (NZ) (Sir Tristram).
Star Affair (NZ) (StarWay) and The Penny (NZ) (One Pound Sterling) have won at Group
Two level while Solid Billing (Rock of Gibraltar), The One (NZ) (O’Reilly), The Dimple (NZ)
(Noble Bijou) and The Cheek (NZ) (Kaapstad) have been Group Three winners.
The Solitaire (NZ) has now won five of her 15 starts and came with a stout finishing run to
land the 2400 metre cup for rider Jay Misbah.
Santos (NZ) (No Excuse Needed) came from the back of the field with 800 metres to run to
take second money.
Topweight Zabene (NZ) (Zabeel) was with pace all the way and fought on bravely to finish
third ahead of the winner’s stablemate The Glitzy One (NZ) (Flying Spur).
7
Lead up event –Auckland Cup at Ellerslie – 8th March 2012
3200 metres - Group 1 - Open Handicap
1st Shez Sinsational
2nd Six o”clock News
3rd Booming
From http://www.races.com.au: Trainer of Wednesday night’s impressive Auckland Cup
winner Shez Sinsational Allan Sharrock has an ambitious aim to take the smart mare across
the Tasman to Victoria this coming spring to target the iconic 2012 Melbourne Cup.
Ekraar four-year-old Shez Sinsational posted career win number eight at her 20th start in the
always-popular NZ$500,000 Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m), a genuine staying test run over
the same two-mile distance as the richest handicap race in the world, Flemington’s $6 million
Group 1 Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) run on the first Tuesday of November.
The 2012 Auckland Cup win qualified the Allan Sharrock-trained Shez Sinsational, who was
ridden by ace young Kiwi jockey James McDonald, for the more famous Flemington
counterpart and that’s exactly where her trainer plans to go for his retired father Bob.
If Sharrock’s dreams of starting in the 24-horse Melbourne Cup 2012 field come true, Shez
Sinsational would be out to repeat the feat of the mighty Jezabeel who claimed the 1998
Auckland Cup – Melbourne Cup double.
Lead up event - The Adelaide Cup – 12th March 2012
3200 metres – Group 2
1st Rialya
2nd Drunken Sailor
3rd Norsqui
4th Enchanting Waters
From www.adelaidecup: It was a thrilling 2012 Adelaide Cup result at Morphettville
Racecourse this afternoon, local South Australian galloper Rialya beating home the favoured
interstate raider Drunken Sailor by the bob of the head.
The Lloyd Kennewell-trained Kempinsky four-year-old Rialya went out as a $12 chance in the
bookmaker.com.au markets for the $400,000 Group 2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) but proved the
value bet of the day.
Coming off a second to today’s Adelaide Cup fourth placegetter Enchanting Waters in the
Group 3 Lord Reims Stakes (2600m) at the track just over a fortnight ago, today Rialya
relished the step up in distance and proved a genuine stayer to watch out for.
Benefiting from their 54kg lightweight, local hoop Shayne Cahill having wasted hard over the
past week to make the weight for the ride, Rialya was able to snare the Adelaide Cup trophy
from Michael Moroney’s champion import Drunken Sailor right on the line.
“He got off the fence at the right time,” Cahill said. “Just worked the run in the right time. It
was a bit of a stop and start race. He’s finished off at the right time. It’s great.”
In a thrilling final 800 metres after Drunken Sailor ($5) hit the front ahead of early leader and
eventual 16th placed Warringah, late moves from the likes of Rialya and Mornington Cup
winner Norsqui made for a cracker finish to the Adelaide Cup 2012.
Following Rialya and Drunken Sailor over the line two lengths away third was Norsqui, while
Enchanting Waters held on for fourth ahead of $5 equal favourite Hanks who never looked in
the finish.
Rialya has now won seven of his 24 career starts for close to $448,000 in prize money. It was
an excellent Adelaide Cup result for young local trainer Kennewell being his first major result.
Shane gave him a beautiful ride,” Kennewell said. “Just a terrific ride. This horse is tough, he’s
strong and we just can’t believe he’s actually done it. It’s surreal. I’m 28 and this is my first
big race win.”
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Lead up event - The BMW Stakes – Rosehill NSW - 7th April 2012
2400 metres - Group 1
1st
Manighar 2nd
Americain
3rd Drunken Sailor
From melbournecupodds.org: Manighar has led home a trifecta for imported stayers with
victory in the $2.25 million BMW at Rosehill on Saturday. Making it three Group One weightfor-age wins under the care of new trainer Peter Moody, Manighar defeated fellow northern
hemisphere imports Americain and Drunken Sailor in the 2400m feature.
“He just loves it here,” part-owner Simon O’Donnell said. “He might have been born and bred
in France but he’s a fully-fledged Aussie as far as I’m concerned.” Jockey Luke Nolen had
Manighar racing outside the leader Fiumicino. Nolen took the six-year-old to front as the
field straightened and the result was never in doubt.
Americain gave his all after being forced to race three-wide for the entire trip. The 2010
Melbourne Cup winner was under pressure at the 400m but rallied strongly in the final stretch.
Drunken Sailor, raced in the same interests as Manighar, took the minor placing.
Manighar and Drunken Sailor were trained by English conditioner Luca Cumani before finding
their way into the stables of Moody and Mike Moroney respectively.
“It’s been quite a feat,” Nolen said of Manighar’s run of form which has also included Group
One wins in the Australian Cup and Ranvet Stakes.
“Pete’s a marvellous trainer but I think we’ve been given a true indication of his abilities with
what he has been able to do with this horse.”
Lead up event – AJC Australian Derby –Randwick NSW - 9th April 2011
2400 Metres - Group 1
1st Ethiopia
2nd Polish Knight
!
3rd Laser Hawk
!
Victorian trainer Pat Carey lamented the loss of a top stayer six months ago but has unearthed
another distance star after Ethiopia gave his rivals a start and a beating in Saturday's Group I
ATC Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick.
Cedarberg dropped dead of a heart attack in August last year, just four months after his win
in the Group I The BMW, leaving Carey to wonder what might have been at Caulfield and
Melbourne Cup time.
Cedarberg finished seventh in the 2010 Australian Derby after picking up an injury during the
race but Ethiopia had no trouble after circling the field from last to give Carey another Sydney
Group I victory.
"Cedarberg ran in the AJC Derby and he got galloped on in the race and we thought we had a
horse then," Carey said. "There is a lot of comparisons between him and Ethiopia."
Journeyman jockey Rhys McLeod allowed the son of the 2003 Rosehill Guineas winner Helenus
to settle at the tail of the field before his superior staying prowess allowed him to sustain
a long run to beat Polish Knight and the $3.20 favourite Laser Hawk.
Ethiopia became the first horse to break his maiden in the AJC Australian Derby since Silver
Shark achieved the feat in 1970.
Carey paid tribute to the patience of Ethiopia's Perth-based owner Trevor Delroy, who insisted
on a gentle approach with the stayer. Carey said the approach would continue into the
gelding's four-year-old season with a warning that a start in the big Spring Cups is not
a foregone conclusion.
9
"A lot of the planning goes to Trevor Delroy, who owns the horse, he's the one that wanted
to hold him back and I support that strategy," Carey said.
"It's one (approach) that suits me down to the ground. We have been thinking about this for a
fair while. He could be a bit special this horse. If you look at him, he is a lovely big scopey sort
of horse.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aA5KlfEbzQE
Lead up event - The Sydney Cup – Randwick NSW - 28rd April 2012
3200 metres - Group 1
1st Niwot
4th Nextanix
2nd Efficient
5th Anudjawun
3rd Once Were Wild
6th Peel of Bells
From http://racenet.com.au: The Hawkes Racing-trained Niwot has defied a gallant Efficient
to win Saturday's Group I Sydney Cup (3200m) in epic circumstances at Randwick.
Niwot's last 3200-metre run resulted in an eighth behind Dunaden in last year's Melbourne Cup
while Efficient's last attempt at the gruelling staying trip saw him win the 2007 Melbourne Cup.
Both gallopers settled in the second half of the field with Solid Billing setting a hot speed
in front while the Gai Waterhouse-trained Once Were Wild tracked him.
Niwot's jockey Dwayne Dunn said he was worried when he found himself "on the back of
Permit, who was pulling". Permit was restrained
out of the race after throwing a shoe and injuring
himself but Dunn navigated a path around him
prior to that.
Dunn began to circle the field at the 800 metres,
allowing Niwot plenty of room to make his run.
"I probably took the soft option when the field
fanned. I could have gone back to the inside and
got a run but I wanted him to get every chance,"
Dunn said.
The son of Galileo hit the front at the 250 metres, taking over from Once Were Wild, but the
nine-year-old grey Efficient had gained a clear run back towards the inside and began charging
home.
Niwot staved off Efficient's finishing burst to claim his first Group I victory with Once Were Wild
battling on well for third.
It was an emotional victory for Hawkes Racing after Niwot shattered his knee in 2009 leaving
his racing career in jeopardy.
"He's not an easy horse to train. There was a lot of hard work early with him," John Hawkes
said. "He's always had a lot of ability and it's nice to see him win a race like this."
Dunn said Niwot's win was a huge relief after finishing second at Group I level with All Too
Hard in the Sires Produce and Rekindled Interest in the George Ryder.
"I keep running second all the time. I was happy to walk away and say it wasn't my rides that
was getting us beat," Dunn added.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5133c9ny1Q
10
Lead up event - Brisbane Cup QLD – 11th June 2011
2400 metres - Group 2
1st Lights of Heaven
4th Wazn
2nd Dance With Her
5th Reuben Percival
3rd Mawingo
From http://www.races.com.au Lights Of Heaven has won the 2012 Brisbane Cup at Eagle
Farm Racecourse today, rounding out a perfect day for trainer Peter Moody.
The four-year-old mare claimed victory in front of Dance With Her, who placed second, and
Mawingo, who held on for third.
Moody was visably elated after winning the 2012 Brisbane Cup with Lights Of Heaven, having
already claimed wins in the Group 1 Queensland Derby and Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap.
“Wonderful positive ride by Luke (Nolen),” Moody said. “He wanted to take the race by the
scruff of the neck. He wanted to put her into the race and I wasn’t going to doubt him after his
masterly ride in the Stradbroke.”
Moody also shed some light on the progress of Black Caviar
since arriving in England for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes
at Royal Ascot on June 23rd, 2012.
“We’re really looking forward to it,” he said. “The great
mare’s arrived in great shape so hopefully this is the start of
a wonderful couple of weeks.”
Jockey Luke Nolen produced a master ride to set Lights Of
Heaven up for the win from her outside barrier of 16.
“She’s obviously advantaged a bit more from her last
attempt at Spring,” Nolen said. “I think a mile and a half
probably sees her out but she’s been excellent this whole
prep. She’s resilient and she’s been well trained.”
Lights Of Heaven has won six of her 14 career race starts and has earned close to $1 million
in prize money.
Note: In 2007 The Brisbane Cup was shortened from 3200m to 2400m for the first time. In
2008 this race was won by Viewed who went on to win the 2008 Melbourne Cup. Viewed was
ridden by Damien Oliver starting at $3.40 and justified its favouritism by strolling home to win
the 2400m Group 2 race by seven lengths on a wet track.
11
Lead up event – Gold Cup – Ascot - England
21st June 2012
4023 metres - Group 1
1st Colour Vision
2nd Opinion Poll
3rd
Saddler’s Rock
4th Gulf Of Naples
From http://www.telegraph.co.uk Frankie Dettori could not have delivered a better knockout
punch to his critics. In the dying strides of Thursday’s Ascot Gold Cup, the jockey forever
associated with the Queen’s racecourse, galvanised Colour Vision for one last surge that
carried him to the most satisfying of his five wins in the Royal Meeting’s most historic race.
Never mind that Dettori had erroneously made the snap decision to switch his whip to the right
hand in the last 20 yards, a move that saw his mount veer sharply and twice bump runner-up
Opinion Poll, this was the ultimate response to snipers who sought to undermine the most
naturally-gifted rider of his generation.
On Britain’s biggest racing stage Dettori had not only won the race with the most prestige, he
had seen off Mickael Barzalona, the young Frenchman who had been put forward by many as
his successor. Dettori’s experience and professionalism, though, were largely responsible for
getting Colour Vision home in front, a fact that would not be lost on those at Godolphin, his
employers.
Sheikh Mohammed, the ruler of Dubai, has provided the money and inspiration behind
Godolphin, his bespoke global stable that has expanded beyond all expectations, and has often
changed company policy and personnel.
When Sheikh Mohammed signed up
Barzalona, in particular, as well as Silvestre de
Sousa late last year, most observers
interpreted the move as designed to ease
Dettori out of the picture. Barzalona is 20
years his junior and following the Frenchman’s
spectacular victory aboard Pour Moi in last
year’s Derby, he had suddenly become the
hottest young talent around.
A bogus website, purporting to belong to
Godolphin, had even posted a message
in Derby week this year that Dettori had
retired. To his great credit, Dettori has risen
above this unsettling situation and delivered
a series of skilled rides that have revived his
popularity and spelt out the message that his
riding days are a far from finished.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS2QHjkxNKg
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Lead up event - JJ Liston Stakes - Caulfield - 18th August 2012
1400 metres - Group 2
1st Second Effort
2nd Zamorar
3rd Ready To Rip
From http://www.jjlistonstakes.com.au: Second Effort proved too good in last Saturday’s
2012 JJ Liston Stakes at Caulfield Racecourse, winning the race by 1.3 lengths.
The six-year-old has now won nine of his 26 race starts and has earned more than $440,000 in
prize money. Zamorar placed second in the 2012 JJ Liston Stakes, while Ready To Rip
passed the post in third.
Equal favourite Luckygray failed to place in the 2012 JJ Liston Stakes, which is also known as
the 2012 PB Lawrence Stakes, and finished fourth.
Second Effort was ridden to victory by jockey Chris Symons, who has never been beaten
aboard the Mossman gelding.
Symons found Second Effort handled the heavy
track incredibly well, and proved far too good
for his competitors coming down the final
straight.
“He loved the ground and he was bolting
coming around the bend,” Symons said.“When
I asked him to lengthen he did and he powered
to the line.”
Second Effort will now go on towards even
bigger feature races during the Melbourne
Spring Racing Carnival.
The gelding was paying $9.00 to win the 2012
JJ Liston Stakes.
Lead up event – Memsie Stakes - Caulfield VIC - 28th August 2011
1400 Metres Group 2 WFA
1st Sincero
2nd Happy Trails
3rd Second Effort
From http://www.theaustralian.com.au Memsie Stakes results: Sincero won the Memsie
Stakes in dominating fashion with Happy Trails two lengths second, and Second Effort another
length further in third.
Sincero is now expected to tackle the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m), held at the same
track on the 22nd of September. Against a field made up of a mixture of fit, in-form gallopers
and aspirants for greater Spring glories, Sincero served notice that his Cox Plate hopes are
more than realistic.
Sent out favourite, Sincero ($3.60) produced a dazzling turn of foot over the final 250m
to demolish the Memsie field, scoring by two lengths from Happy Trails ($13).
Second Effort ($19), himself an impressive Group II winner at his previous start, finished third,
1-1/4 lengths further back.
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The style in which Sincero put the opposition away prompted his trainer Farley to declare him
“the most underrated horse in Australia. He's got a turn of foot you can't believe,” Farley
said.“When he lets go he doesn't really quicken though, he lengthens.”
As he did a year ago, Farley has set Sincero for the Cox Plate, but this time he believes he
knows a lot more about how to win it. Sincero raced three times in Melbourne last spring,
finishing fifth in the Caulfield Stakes, ninth in the Cox Plate and seventh in the Mackinnon
Stakes.
This spring the campaign that began on Saturday continues in the Group I Underwood Stakes
(1800m) at the same track on September 22nd followed by the Group I Caulfield Stakes
(2000m) three weeks later and the Group I Cox Plate (2040m) two weeks after that.
Unfortunately for Sincero's regular jockey Chris O'Brien, one of the lessons Farley learned a
year ago was that big races call for big-race jockeys.“Chris and I are still great mates, but I
think the horse has gone past him,” Farley said. As a result O'Brien has been replaced by
Michael Rodd for Sincero's spring campaign.
In a race that kicked off several Cups campaigns, encouraging efforts came from Green Moon
who was the only horse to make ground and the Italian import Voila Ici who showed surprising
pace and then battled on well for sixth.
Note:
The Memsie Stakes has been upgraded to a Group 1 for the 2013-2014
Watch the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLpDqVKjkhg
Lead up event – Makybe Diva Stakes - Flemington VIC - 8th Sept. 2012
1600 metres (previously Craiglee Stakes) – Group 2 WFA
1st Littorio
4th Playing God
2nd Glass Harmonium
5th Lights of Heaven
3rd Midas Touch
6th At First Sight
http://vrc.net.au/news It was shades of the Dubai Australian Cup at Flemington today, when
Southern Speed and Manighar fought out a thrilling finish to the $300,000 Group 2 Makybe
Diva Stakes. But unlike the Group 1 in March, which import Manighar won by a nose, the
reigning BMW Caulfield Cup winner got her revenge in the 1600 metre event.
Star jockey Craig Williams, who rode Southern Speed in the Dubai Australian Cup also, said it
was great to atone for that shattering defeat but was surprised to learn that Southern Speed’s
No 11 had been displayed in the winner’s spot in the big screen.
“I never look, I look down and throw everything at my horses (in a close finish), but probably
because history’s showed me that that really good grey horse (Manighar) always seems to
beat me, I just thought that he might have got me again,” Williams said.
But Southern Speed had a short-half-head to spare on the line, which saw her become the first
mare to win the Makybe Diva since Saleous in 1996. After travelling much more forward than
customary, Southern Speed hit the front midway down the long Flemington straight and just
when she was set to be hailed the winner, around 100m from home, Manighar emerged as a
threat.
The rejuvenated gelding looked to have Southern Speed’s measure at the 50m, but the
combination of grit and a well-timed bob of the head saw the mare home. Leon Macdonald,
who trains Southern Speed in partnership with son-in-law Andrew Gluyas, was thrilled to see
her score another feature Victorian success.
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“Gee, she’s a good mare isn’t she?” he said. “I don’t think the race was run to suit her, being in
front at the top of the running, but she won so it doesn’t matter.”
The Caulfield Cup, which has never been won twice by a female, remains the goal but
Macdonald conceded he may have to change tack towards the $3 million Sportingbet Cox Plate
if Southern Speed wins the $400,000 Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on 22 September.
“We probably won’t make a decision until after the Underwood, but she’s going very well,” the
co-trainer said. “I think you’ve got to make a decision between a Caulfield Cup and a Cox
Plate. It’s pretty hard to go back for a Cox Plate after a Caulfield Cup, so we’ll see what
happens.”
Southern Speed and Manighar finished two lengths clear of the next horse home, but there
were no shortage of impressive runs outside the quinella. Comeback gelding Moudre was
outstanding at his first run for 18 months, storming into third at $51, while Mourayan ($81)
was a further half-length back in fourth.
December Draw ($7.50, eighth) had a good run behind the leaders, but knocked up late, while
Mawingo ($5) settled last and made a wide run rounding the home turn but lost ground late to
finish two lengths behind second-last horse Efficient.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be8ldS0VYbQ
Lead up event – Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
– 15th September 2012
1600 metres
1st Happy Trails
Interest
4th Linton
Group 2
WFA Moonee Valley VIC
2nd Green Moon
3rd Rekindled
5th Sneek A Peek
6th Mr Chard
From http://www.races.com.au: The 2012 Cox Plate dream is alive for Happy Trails trainer
Paul Beshara after a tough win in the Group 2 2012 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m)
at Moonee Valley today.
The Cox Plate dream is alive for Happy Trails after winning the 2012 Dato' Tan Chin Nam
Stakes Beshara entered the five-year-old in today’s contest as a trial for a start in the weightfor-age championship of Australasia and he passed with flying colours.
Held just off the pace after jumping from a wide barrier with Glen Boss aboard, Happy Trails
produced a fighting finish to win by a nose ahead of Caulfield Cup runner-up Green Moon.
Beshara was thrilled with the result and did not shy away from declaring the Cox Plate as the
major spring target for the son of the Good Journey.
“This is unbelieveable, it’s a dream come true,” Beshara said. “He puts 150 percent in every
time he goes out. We owe him more than he owes us and today that’s a great thing. You’d
definitely go to the Cox Plate now. That’s your ticket in.”
Star jockey Glen Boss, who was also on board for the runner-up in the Memsie Stakes earlier
this month, was more reserved about the gelding’s chances in Australia’s most prestigious
weight-for-age race.
“I’m not sure if he can win a Cox Plate this horse,” Boss said. “He’s got great form around
some very, very good horses but not at weight-for-age. This is obviously his first win at
weight-for-age. I’d more think that the Emirates at the end of the carnival…but it costs you
nothing to dream does it?”Cox Plate placegetter Rekindled Interest showed he is still ready
to show something this spring as he took third place.
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Lead up event - Irish St Leger at The Curragh - Ireland - 15th September 2012
1 ! miles - Group 1
1st Royal Diamond
2rd Massiyn
3th Brown Panther
4th Aiken
From http://www.drf.com : Royal Diamond, a 6-year-old who had failed to win a race of
consequence in any of his previous 24 starts, came out on the right side of a three-horse
photo finish in the Group 1 Irish St. Leger on Saturday at the Curragh.
Massiyn finished a head behind the winner with Brown Panther another nose back in third.
Fourth-place Aiken also was in the frame, a neck farther back.
Two and a half hours earlier, trainer Aidan O’Brien had seen Camelot’s bid for an English Triple
Crown fail when he finished second in the English St.
Leger, and in the Irish St. Leger, O’Brien looked on as
strongly favored Fame and Glory struggled home sixth
after setting the pace.
Royal Diamond, ridden by Niall McCullagh for trainer
Thomas Carmody, had shown improvement when
finishing third last month in the Ebor Handicap at York,
but this was the best race of his life. Fourth for much of
the 1 !-mile race, Royal Diamond stayed on strongly
through the home stretch, finishing between horses as
Brown Panther came hard on the far outside in the
race’s final stages, just missing both runner-up Massiyn
and the winner.
Lead up event - Underwood Stakes - Caulfield - 22nd September 2012
1800 metres - Group 1
1st Ocean Park
2nd Voila Ici
3rd December Draw
4th Southern Speed
From Racenet.com.au: Top Kiwi galloper Mufhasa franked his form an hour before Ocean Park
heralded his arrival in Melbourne with a dominant win in the Group I Underwood Stakes
(1800m) at Caulfield.
Mufhasa recorded his 10th Group I win in the Windsor Park Plate (2000m) at Hastings to give
punters an idea of how well Ocean Park was travelling after he relegated the New Zealand star
to fourth when the pair met in the Group I Makfi Challenge Stakes (1400m) three weeks ago.
Ocean Park eased from $6 to $9 on track before firming to start at $8 while the Peter Moody
trained Manighar was backed from $2.40 to jump as a $2 favourite.
Ocean Park and Manighar travelled together, three pairs from the lead, for the first 1200
metres of the race until the latter's jockey Luke Nolen switched him to the outside to make his
run while Glen Boss decided to stay to the inside on the former.
A gap to the outside of Mawingo closed at the 450 metres, forcing Boss to look back to the
inside for clear galloping room for Ocean Park early in the straight. The leader Voila Ici surged
clear at the 250 metres but Boss found a passage for Ocean Park, guiding him to a strong halflength win.
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December Draw showed improvement on his first-up effort to claim third ahead of Southern
Speed while Manighar failed to show the dash of his luckless Makybe Diva Stakes defeat,
finishing sixth behind Sincero.
The four-year-old gave his trainer Gary Hennessy his maiden Australian Group I success.
Hennessy said Boss's effort to get the stallion out of trouble at the 400 metres was a
testament to the triple Melbourne Cup-winning rider's talents.
"It's exciting to come over here and win a Group I," Hennessy said. "He's a top jockey and he
takes the pressure off me."
Hennessy said he had not decided whether to aim Ocean Park at the Caulfield Cup and Cox
Plate next month but marvelled at his charge's
ability.
"He's pretty special. He's pretty special and has
been a bit freakish all along," Hennessy said. "He
showed that in his last start and again today. He's
really special. He's got a great turn of foot."
US import Winchester hit the line well to finish ninth
at his Australian debut while Zabeelionaire turned in
a solid midfield effort.
The market: Ocean Park eased from $6 to $9 on track before firming to start at $8 while
Manighar was backed from $2.40 to jump as a $2 favourite. December Draw eased from
$10 to $20. Sincero eased from $5 to $6.50 to $6, Southern Speed drifted from $6 to $9.
The on-course market closed at 115 percent.
Note: In the past ‘The Underwood’ has been a good form guide for the Melbourne Spring
carnival. The winners in 2002 (Northerly), Mummify (2003) and Elvestrom (2004) went on
the win the Caulfield Cup about a month later. So far, since the first Underwood Stakes was
run in 1924, nine horses have completed the Underwood – Caulfield Cup double. As well, Sky
Heights (1999) and Paris Lane (1991) both ran 2nd in the Underwood before going on to win
the Caulfield Cup.
However only three Underwood Stakes winners, Jeune (1994) Rain Lover (1969) and Hallmark
(1933) are the only ones to go on to win the Melbourne Cup in the same year. But…..three
recent Melbourne Cup winners Jezabeel (1998), Subzero in (1992) and At Talaq (1986) all
finished 2nd in the Underwood.
Usually ‘horses’ win the Underwood. The last ‘mare’ to win it was Tristarc in 1985. In 2007
Miss Finland and Marasco were ‘expected’ to fight out the finish. Rubiscent, the winner, was
a 40/1 outsider.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX_fvBqlDdw
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Lead up event - The Metropolitan - Randwick 6th October 2012
2400 Metres - Group 1
1st Glencadam Gold
4th Stout Hearted
2nd Kelinni
5th Lamasery
3rd Reuben Percival
6th Peel Of Bells
From www.theage.com.au CAULFIELD Cup favourite Glencadam Gold continued his amazing
rise from obscurity yesterday when he sealed a spot in Saturday week's $2.5 million race after
being re-handicapped two kilograms for Saturday's victory in the group 1 Metropolitan.
The Gai Waterhouse-trained imported horse was all but unheard of when weights came out for
the Caulfield Cup on September 5 and was allocated the limit weight of 50 kilograms. But
subsequent wins in the Newcastle Cup, where he earned a 1.5-kilogram penalty, and the
Metropolitan have forced him up the elimination order to equal 21st with 53.5 kilograms.
He is expected to safely land in the top 18 - the field limit for the Caulfield Cup on October 20 when third declarations for the race close at noon today.
The two-kilogram penalty for Glencadam Gold, who has won all four races in Australia, also
applies in the $6.2 million Melbourne Cup over 3200 metres. He looks certain of a start in the
final 24 at Flemington as he now sits 27th in the order for first declarations, also due at noon
today.
Racing Victoria handicapper Neil Jennings said Glencadam Gold's penalty was in line with those
given to the previous three winners of the Metropolitan. ''Speed Gifted in 2009, Herculian
Prince in 2010 and The Verminator last year all received two kilograms and Glencadam Gold
was most impressive on Saturday,'' Jennings said.
The last horse to take the Metropolitan-Caulfield Cup double was also an import - Tawqeet in
2006 - and he too rose to 53.5 kilograms for the Caulfield Cup.
The news was not so good for the Lloyd
Williams camp with Tanby, winner of the
Bart Cummings on Saturday, receiving a
0.5 kilogram penalty to 52.5 kilograms for
the Caulfield Cup, leaving him in
dangerous territory at equal 34th on the
elimination order.
Last year, Tanby only narrowly missed out
on a Melbourne Cup start and it may be a
similar case this year as he is 45th in
order.
''Taking a line through Maluckyday, who
was beaten a length into second place in
the Bart Cummings, Tanby met him with a
3.5 kilogram advantage at the weights but as there was only 1.5 kilograms between them in
the cups, we really couldn't elevate his weight any more,'' Jennings said. ''Effectively, he now
meets Maluckyday 2.5 kilograms worse in the Caulfield Cup for beating him home a length.''
Note 1: It was announced on the 11th of October that Lamasery had sustained an injury and
would not be seen again at Flemington for the Spring Carnival.
Note 2: The Metropolitan (2400m) is a traditional lead up to the Caulfield and Melbourne
Cups. The last galloper to win the Metropolitan-Caulfield Cup double was Tawqeet in 2006,
while the last horse to win the Metropolitan-Melbourne Cup double was Macdougal all the way
back in 1959.
Watch the video of Tom Waterhouse talking about the Gai Waterhouse trained
Glencadam Gold: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEXjwEu3uck
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Lead up event - Turnbull Stakes - Flemington - 6nd October 2012
2000 metres 4 yr olds and above
1st Green Moon
4th Viola Ici
2nd Seville
5th Happy Trails
3rd December Draw
6th Ethopia
Watch Oct 5th preview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPmBo44ULZs
From wwos.ninemsn.com.au: Green Moon has continued a stellar day for one of Australian
racing's biggest owners with Group One success in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.
Despite sitting three-wide without cover on the speed under Craig Williams, the Lloyd Williamsowned Green Moon controlled the race in the straight to hold out his stablemate Seville.
In an all European finish December Draw edged out former Italian galloper Voila Ici for the
minor placing.
Williams also enjoyed success at Randwick on
Saturday with another import, the seven-year-old
Mourayan, while Tanby won a Turnbull Stakes Day
support race at Flemington.
"Dad's been in the game for 50 years and I dare
say it's been one of his better days," the owner's
son Nick Williams said.
Note 1: Unfortunately it was announced, on the
11th of October, that Seville had sustained an
injury and would not be racing at the Melbourne
Spring carnival.
Note 2: The Turnbull Stakes is rated below the major Group 1 Spring races like the Melbourne
Cup and WS Cox Plate but it is held in high esteem and has become a prestigious event on the
racing calendar each year.
The race is the first quality 2000 metre event of the spring and gives staying types a chance to
race over a more suitable middle distance with the upcoming Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup
in mind. The Turnbull Stakes also provides a more than handy lead up race to the Caulfield
Stakes at Caulfield the following week and the Caulfield Cup two weeks later.
The race itself has been a tremendous guide to winners of major spring races and a number
of high class gallopers have managed to win this race. In recent years the Turnbull Stakes has
provided multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and WS Cox Plate, and every
year it continues to be a pivotal race for horses contesting the major Group 1 races to come.
The Turnbull Stakes always attracts top class gallopers and is one of the premier middle
distance events of the spring carnival. History says to keep an eye on the Turnbull Stakes.
Recent Turnbull Stakes winners include Zipping (2010) and Efficient (2009).
Watch the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0YiG4FxcxY
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Lead up event - The Bart Cummings - Flemington - 6th October 2012
2520 metres - Listed Race
1st Tanby
4th Sky Raider
2nd Maluckyday
5th Rialya
3rd Dame Clare
6th Single Minded
From ninemsn.com.au Prolific owner Lloyd Williams confirmed two major Cup prospects within
20 minutes on Saturday with the wins of Mourayan at Randwick and Tanby at Flemington.
While Mourayan was already among Williams' Melbourne Cup calculations, Tanby needed his
victory in the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m) to help promote him in the entry order for the
Caulfield Cup.
In a race that became notable before the start through the scratching of the heavily-backed
favourite Exceptionally due to the firmness of the track, Tanby ($3.60) scored by a length from
Maluckyday ($5).
Dame Claire ($8) battled on well to hold third, a head further back.
The battle on the track was preceded by another in the stewards room where trainer Terry
O'Sullivan asked stewards for permission to scratch Exceptionally and threatened not to run
her if they didn't grant his request.
O'Sullivan complained before race one that the Flemington track was too firm and could
destroy her more important spring prospects if she was forced to run.
The stewards argued that the track condition had been known to O'Sullivan before scratching
time on race morning.
The trainer said he had left the mare in the race because rain had been forecast, but had not
arrived by race time and, in any case, was more firm than the official reading.
"I believe the track is very, very firm," O'Sullivan said.
Under the rules of racing a trainer can scratch a horse if the track condition changes during the
race meeting.
After considering the situation for three races, chief steward Terry Bailey ruled the
circumstances were extenuating and allowed Exceptionally to be withdrawn.
O'Sullivan will now attempt to qualify
Exceptionally through the Herbert Power Handicap
at Caulfield next week.
Watch Bart Cummings’ 12 Melbourne Cups:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhX82zFNwZc
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Lead up event - Craven Plate - Randwick - 6th October
2000 metre Craven Plate - Group WFA
1st Mourayan
4th Less Is More
2nd Western Symbol
5th Maules Creek
3rd Dare To Dream
6th Class Is Class
From races.com.au: The Robert Hickmott-trained, Lloyd Williams-owned Melbourne
Spring Carnival-bound Mourayan showed true grit to hold on and take out the 2012
Craven Plate at Royal Randwick’s Epsom Handicap Day this afternoon.
The imported Alhaarth seven-year-old proved it had bucket-loads of determination and
promise heading towards the majors in Melbourne to win a tough edition of the $125,000
Group 3 Craven Plate (2000m).
Winner of the Listed The Bart Cummings (2500m) in Victoria on this day last year before going
on to run second to Glass Harmonium in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at
Flemington on Victoria Derby Day, this year Mourayan looks set for a big Spring Cups
campaign.
They are entered for both the $2.65 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 20 and
the $6.2 million Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) on the first Tuesday of November.
Third-up for the season Mourayan was well liked in the Craven Plate markets jumping the
$2.50 favourite after his eye-catching second to Lamasery last time out over the track and
distance in the Group 2 Hill Stakes.
They settled into second in the Craven soon after jumping letting the Gai Waterhouse-trained
Herculian Prince roll along to lead in a slick pace.
While the likes of Maules Creek and Ginga Dude settled just off the pace, Mourayan stuck
close to the leader with the top two speeding right away to put a big gap on the rest of the
field coming into the turn.
On the outside Mourayan never stopped coming as Herculian Prince’s Nathan Berry jockey
went for the whip. The eventual winner wouldn’t go away however even when Western Symbol
and Maules Creek started to really run on with 200-metres to go.
Mourayan kept fighting and won the Craven by the bob of a head over an impressive Nash
Rawiller-ridden Western Symbol ($5.50) who needed the run today and who will improve
going forward.
The Bart Cummings-trained import Dare To Dream ($10), having just its second run down
under, meanwhile also ran a good race to finish a further long neck away third having come
from last, jockey James McDonald weaving their way to run a placing after not being able to
find a passage earlier.
Watch a video of Tanby and Mourayan in training:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kRD9ALhyis
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Lead up event - Prix Kergorlay 3000 metres - Group 2 1st Joshua Tree
4t Tres Roc Danon
2nd Brigantin
5th Flamingo Fantasy
3rd Shahwardi
6th Americain
Brigantin and Shahrwardi are two of ‘the imports’ who are in Australia with the 2012
Melbourne Cup in their sites. Shahwardi impressively won the Herbert Power Stakes (see
below). And both Brigantin and Shahwardi easily accounted for 2010 Melbourne Cup winner in
this Prix Kergorlay. It is a worthwhile exercise to watch this race via the video link below.
Watch the race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTIrPj6m7DQ
Lead up event - Herbert Power Stakes - 12th October 2012
2400m - Group 2 Apprentices cannot claim
1st Shahwardi
4th Ironstein
2nd
Excluded
5th Silent Surround
3rd Exceptionally
6th Precedence
From watoday.com.au: Any suggestion the internationals may not be the horses to beat in the
major Spring Cups was dismissed in a few moments at Caulfield yesterday. Little-known
French horse Shahwardi, who had not won for more than three years, thrashed the local
stayers in the Herbert Power Stakes to all but claim his spot in next month's Melbourne Cup.
Shahwardi blitzed the field coming from last to first in an easy win and was very impressive
over the mile and a half having last run over 3000 metres in France. (see above).
Shahwardi, a seven-year-old who is prepared by Americain's (2010 Melbourne Cup winner)
trainer, Alain de Royer Dupre, and was well down the pecking order of the 16 Europeans who
flew into Melbourne last month, is now free of the ballot for Saturday's Caulfield Cup. However,
he is likely to be reserved for the Melbourne Cup given he will attract a penalty from
yesterday's win. He needs a two-kilogram penalty to ensure his place at Flemington on
Melbourne Cup Day. The favourite was another international - Gatewood. It ran into more
pockets than an aeroplane in a thunderstorm. Might be well to forget this run in assessing its
ability to win the Melbourne Cup on this run in the Herbert Power Stakes.
Bart Cummings' chances of snaring a Group 1 over the carnival are minimal. His three
Melbourne Cup hopes, Sanagas, Illo and Precedence, failed to flatter yesterday just hours after
the master trainer withdrew his Flight Stakes winner Norzita from Wednesday's Thousand
Guineas and sent her for a spell.
Note: In 1999 Rogan Josh won the Herbert Power before going on to win the Melbourne Cup
beating Central Park with Lahar and Zazabeel dead heating for 3rd.
Watch preview with Kerrin McEvoy talking about Shahwardi:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U6W1yACEXk
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Lead up event - NZB Caulfield Stakes - Caulfield - 8th October 2012
2000m - Group 1 3 yr old and upwards
1st
4th
Ocean Park
Midas Touch
2nd Alcopop
5th Sabrage
3rd Sincero
6th Sangas
From http://www.watoday.com.au Kiwi galloper Ocean Park celebrated his fourth birthday
in style yesterday when he won his third Group 1 race in a row to confirm his credentials as a
genuine Cox Plate chance.
Ocean Park yesterday started the hot $1.50 favourite in the Caulfield Stakes but his supporters
had a few anxious moments as firstly Sincero and then Alcopop threatened to run him down
before his class took him to what was ultimately a soft three-quarters-of-a-length win.
While bookmakers and punters were a little nonplussed with what seemed a workman-like
performance, his jockey Glen Boss said that yesterday's race will catapult the horse into the
Cox Plate in two weeks in perfect order.
''The best part of that performance was his attitude. I couldn't believe how relaxed he was for
a horse that's only had a handful of starts [10 runs]. He does exactly what you want in a
race.''
In contrast to Boss was Ocean Park's trainer Gary Hennessy, who was barely moved by the
horse's effort. ''That's the race we're looking for and we didn't want a gut-buster,'' he said.
''He's had to step up as a four-year-old and he has done it in Group 1’s over 1400 metres,
1800 metres and 2000 metres.''
Ocean Park's place in the Cox Plate was confirmed yesterday but doubts remain on whether
the third horse Sincero is able to run out a strong 2000 metres.
Rodd said Sincero may need blinkers to help him concentrate after the horse moved up to
Ocean Park at the 200-metre mark and for a stride looked as though he'd finish the better.
''He's just not focusing so I think the shades [blinkers] might help him,'' Rodd said. ''I think
there is still improvement in this horse.''
South Australian trainer Jake Stephens and owners of Alcopop have a nervous wait in front of
them over the next few days to see if the eight-year-old can sneak into the Caulfield Cup field
after he finished off strongly for second.
The Caulfield Cup has proven a bogey race and may prove so again this year as he is 20th to
gain a start in the $2.5 million race next week before Tuesday's final acceptances.
''We'll definitely have a crack if we can get in as this horse has never eaten better and is just
coming on,'' Stephens said.
Alcopop won a ballot-free entry into the Caulfield Cup three years ago when he won the
Herbert Power Stakes but was not entered for the Cup. The following year he struck a heavy
surface (10) and ran poorly and then he broke down last year on the eve of the Cup.
Note: Jeune (1994) and Etherial (2001) placed in the Caulfield Stakes (then called Yalumba
Stakes) prior to going on to win the Melbourne Cup.
Watch Oct 12th Spring Carnival preview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw2SewEhBQg
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Lead up event – The Caulfield Cup - VIC - 20th October 2012
2400 metres Group 1
The Caulfield Cup is the world’s richest 2400-metre handicap. Top judges have often said the
Caulfield Cup is ‘best guide’ to the Melbourne Cup. And the 2012 Caulfield Cup was proclaimed
as one of the stongest fields ever seen.
The field:
…and the results were:
1st
Dunaden
2nd
Alcopop
3rd Lights Of Heaven
4th
Americain
5th
My Quest For Peace
6th Zabeelionaire
7th
Folding Gear
8th
Sneak A Peek
9th Winchester
10th Sangas
11th Secret Admirer
12th Niwot
13th Jakkalberry
14th Moudre
15th Glencadam Gold
16th Sabrage
17th December Draw
18th Viola Ici
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From www.theroar.com.au: Dunaden has come from near last to win the Caulfield Cup for
2012. The reigning Melbourne Cup winner carried the top weight of 58kgs but proved too
strong in the $2.5m handicap comfortably winning from locally-trained gallant gallopers
Alcopop and Lights Of Heaven.
Upon arrival in Australia, Dunaden injured a hoof and was in serious doubt for the Caulfield
Cup but he recovered sufficiently to take his place in the field. Even on Monday, his trainer
Mikel Delzangles expressed concerns about the horse’s preparation, saying Dunaden was still
one week further behind in his work than where he needed to be.
Furthermore, Dunaden wasn’t expected to come to the Spring Carnival because his
connections had initially chosen to race the horse in this month’s Arc de Triomphe in Paris but
the plan was aborted in time for the seven-year old to make the journey to Melbourne.
From his wide barrier Dunaden was taken back to the tail of the field by Williams but produced
a strong finish to pass the field in the home straight.
Second place-getter Alcopop looked set for victory after he shot clear at the top of the running
but was caught late. It’s the eight-year old’s best ever performance.
Third place-getter Lights Of Heaven took a late gap to fill the minor placing. It is trainer Peter
Moody’s first top-three finish in an Australian major.
In encouraging signs for his Melbourne Cup tilt, 2010 winner Americain finished powerfully to
grab fourth, while there was plenty of merit in the run of fifth-placegetter My Quest For Peace
who sweated-up badly before the start.Pre-race favourites Glencadam Gold and December
Draw tired in the straight after racing on a fast tempo. Now Dunaden is eligible to be rehandicapped for the Melbourne Cup. Just watch the arguments begin!
Stable spokesman Geoffrey Faber says it would be unfair to penalise the seven-year-old.
"He's a racehorse not an airplane ... he shouldn't get a penalty," Faber said.
"Besides he didn't win by that far, did he?"
Starting at $14, Dunaden beat Alcopop ($16) by a half length with Lights Of Heaven ($11)
another three quarters of a length away third.
Overseas-trained horses filled three of the first five placings with My Quest For Peace finishing
just behind Americain in fifth. Dunaden's win is the sixth Caulfield Cup win for international
horses in 11 years.
Listen to the race: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-20/race-call-caulfield-cup/
4324644
Note: The last winner of the Caulfield Cup that went on to win the Melbourne Cup in the
same year was Let’s Elope in 2001. Prior to that Might and Power did it in 1997. Prior to that
you have to go back to 1982 when Gurners Lane won both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Hence winning the Caulfield Cup Cup is no guarantee of winning the Melbourne Cup. The
reason it is such a ‘good guide’ is that it may give an indication of horses that are capable of
‘running on’ and stepping up from the 2400 metres of the Caulfield Cup to the 3200 metres of
the Melbourne Cup. It is certainly not going to happen in 2011 as the mare, Southern Speed,
is not entered in the 2011 Melbourne Cup. But you might make a note to watch out for her
next year!
Makybe Diva ran 2nd in the Caulfield Cup in 2004 and went on to win the Cup that year also.
Doriemus won the Caulfield Cup in 1995 and then ran 3rd in the 1995 Melbourne Cup. Both
Delta Blues and Pop Rock just missed places in the 2006 Caulfield Cup before running 1st and
2nd in the 2006 Melbourne Cup.
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Note: There are additional ‘lead up’ events in the two weeks leading up to the Melbourne
Cup. You need be aware of these races as they often provide excellent guide lines for the
Melbourne Cup. Results of these races will be posted on my Blog. See http://
www.TheMelbourneCup.wordpress.com These races are:
The Geelong Cup is always the fourth Wednesday in October. Hence, In 2012, it will be run on
Wednesday the 24th of October. It is a 2400 metre, Group Three, Open Handicap with Total
Prize money, in 2012, of $215,000
This race has some interesting history as a lead in race to the Melbourne Cup. In the 1984
Geelong Cup (Chagemar and Black Knight) ran 1st and 2nd and reversed the order in the
Melbourne Cup that year. In 1985 Koiro Corrie May won the Geelong Cup and was narrowly
beaten by What A Nuisance in the Melbourne Cup. Tripsacum was third in both races. Mr
Brooker won at Geelong in 1990 and then ran third to Kingston Rule in the fastest ever
Melbourne Cup.
Media Puzzle claimed the double in 2002. Often one of the Melbourne Cup placegetters has
advanced through the Geelong Cup. Dermott Weld, with Vintage Crop and Media Puzzle,
showed that horses trained in the northern hemisphere could win the Melbourne Cup. Zazzman
won the Geelong Cup in 2003 and then went on to run 3rd to Makybe Diva in 2004. In 2005
On a Jeune won the Geelong Cup and then went on to run 2nd Makybe Diva in the 2005
Melbourne Cup. In 2008 the Geelong Cup was won by Bauer. In the 2008 Melbourne Cup Bauer
was defeated ‘by a whisker’ by Bart Cummings’ horse Viewed. Americain won the Geelong Cup
in 2010 before going on to win the 2010 Melbourne Cup. And Dunaden also won the Geelong
Cup in 2011 before going on to win the 2011 Melbourne Cup.
The Cox Plate – To be run on Saturday the 27th of October 2012 is another lead up race
that can provide more useful information about which horse will win the Melbourne Cup. In
2005 Makybe Diva ran in this race and then went on to win the Melbourne Cup. So You Think
won the 2010 Cox Plate and was then touted as being unbeatable in the Melbourne Cup, in
which he ran 3rd.
The Cathay Pacific Airways Cup at Moonee Valley (used to be named the Moonee Valley
Cup) is a Group 2 set weight and penalties event that takes place at Moonee Valley racecourse
in October during the Melbourne spring racing carnival. The race is held on the same day as
the Moonee Valley Racing Club's premier race of the spring, the Group 1 W S Cox Plate.
(Saturday 27th October 2012). The race is run over a distance of 2500 metres and worth
$250,000 in prizemoney. The 2011 Moonee Valley Cup was won by Americain from
Tullamore with Illo third.
The last horse to win the Mooney Valley Gold Cup and then win the Melbourne Cup was Yippyio
in 2000. And it was 11 years before that Kingston Rule did the same thing in 1990.
The Bendigo Cup will be run on Wednesday 31st of October, 2012. The Bendigo Cup now
provides another good lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup. The race is run over a distance of
2400 metres and worth $200,000 in prizemoney. The 2011 Bendigo Cup was won by Tanby
from At First Sight with Western Symbol third. It really is ‘yet another chance’ for horses
still trying to ‘qualify’ to take their place in the 2011 Melbourne Cup.
The Lexus Stakes on Saturday the 3rd of November is the last handicap race over a
distance further than 2000m to be held for open horses before the running of the Flemington
carnival's major race, the Melbourne Cup on the following Tuesday the 6th of November. The
Saab is a good event to give horses a final hit out before contesting the 3200m of the Cup.
More often than not the race will be taken out by a more than handy staying horse rather than
the upper echelon. Although every now and then a quality type can find his way into the race
and make his presence felt.
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Niwot (in 2011) finished unplaced in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m on his way to
scoring in this event and recent. Niwot then went on to win the 2012 Sydney Cup held in April
2012. Recent Lexus Stakes winners that have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup have been
Maluckyday (2010) and Shocking (2009).
The race is registered as the 'Hotham Handicap' has previously been known as 'The Dalgety'
and 'SAAB Quality' and has been run as 'The Lexus Stakes' since 2009.
The Lexus Stakes is held on Derby Day which is the first day of the four day Flemington spring
racing carnival. Derby day features four Group 1 races, the Victorian Derby, Coolmore Stud
Stakes, Mackinnon Stakes and the Myer Classic.
The Saab Quality Handicap (used to be called the Hotham Handicap) of 2500 metres will
be run on Saturday 3rd of November 2012. It is the last race over a distance longer than
2000m to be held under handicap conditions before the running of the Melbourne Cup. The
Saab is a good event to give horses a final hit out before contesting the 3200 metres of the
Melbourne Cup. It tends to be taken out by handy staying types rather than the upper echelon.
The Saab Quality has been a ‘moderate guide’ over the past twenty years. However, Shocking,
in 2009 won the Saab impressively before going on to win the Melbourne Cup. Maybe Better
won the race in 2006 before running 3rd to Delta Blues in the Melbourne Cup. Brew won both
the Saab and the Melbourne Cup in 2000.
The Victorian Derby will also be run on Saturday 3rd of November 2012. The winner of
the Victorian Derby is given the option of automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup provided a
late fee entry of $65,000 is paid. In 2006 the connections of the Victorian Derby – Efficient decided to pay the fee. (I don’t suppose that’s all that surprising as the prize money for the
1st place in the Derby was $900,000.)
The Motorola Mckinnon Stakes is a Group One event that will also be run on Derby Day Saturday 3rd of November 2012. It is a weight-for-age event run over a distance of 2000
metres. It can be a form guide and is sometimes used by trainers to give their horse a final
hit out before the running of the Melbourne Cup. In 2009 Bart Cummings chose to give his
2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed a run in this race. Viewed ran 3rd in this race but only ran
7th in the Cup. And in 1999 Bart Cummings chose to run Rogan Josh in the McKinnon which
he won and then went on to win the 1999 Melbourne Cup. And before that Let’s Elope
(another Bart Cummings’ horse) won both the McKinnon and the Melbourne Cup in 1991.
Note: The results of all these races, which are run after this eBook is completed, can be found
on my blog at http://www.TheMelbourneCup.wordpress.com. And if you follow me on Twitter
(@MelbourneCupMax) I will be Tweeting about these events.
About Statistics and Statisticians
On the topic of using statistics as a guideline, another gem from my Dad
(a bookmaker) was in relation to punters who always quoted statistics. He
used to say, with a smile on his face, “Son, there are liars, damn liars and
statisticians.” Ummmmmmm.
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The SportingBet connection
As mentioned previously, we are thrilled to be associated with Sportingbet Australia and you
can visit their website directly from this ebook and check out their huge range of Melbourne
Cup markets and specials.
Open an account with Sportingbet Australia and they will match your first deposit up to $200,
so you have doubled your money before even placing a bet! Click on the link above to meet
Andrew Brown from Sportingbet.com.au or visit Sportingbet Australia’s website and open an
account by clicking on the following link.
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/partners.asp?btag=a_2382b_6289
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The 100 year system
Those long term subscribers to my Melbourne Cup prognostications will be familiar with my
‘wacky’ 100 year system. It came about when I mused, as history often repeats itself, why
wouldn’t it repeat itself in racing? And you will recall we have often ‘developed’ an association
with the winner. (Sometimes before the race and sometimes after the race!)
Well, the placings in the 1912 Melbourne Cup were - 1st: Piastre; 2nd: Uncle Sam; 3rd
Hallowmas. I invite you to check the 2012 field and see if you can get a ‘connection’. Send me
an email telling of your ‘connection’ and I will post it on our Melbourne Cup Blog. See: http://
themelbournecup.wordpress.com/
“When do you get my final Melbourne Cup selections?”
Because of many ‘variable factors’ I leave my final choice of horses until around 8am on the
morning of the Cup. (Tuesday 6th November) Not the least of the ‘variable factors’ is rain.
Trainers and owners usually hope for and prepare their horses for a dry track. However, if it
rains on Melbourne Cup Day, I have to throw all the previous research and reconnaissance out
the door and begin to look for horses who can handle wet tracks. (And there are not many of
these).
Also, last minute things can ‘happen’ to the horses. Eg. In 2003 the early favourite for the Cup
– Mummify – was scratched on Cup Day morning. On that morning trainer Lee Freedman
found Mummify was running a temperature and decided against running Mummify in the Cup.
Even so, things can still go wrong. In 2007 between the time I posted my six horses at 8am on
Cup Day morning and midday three of my selections were scratched. That’s racing!
Remember:
On Melbourne Cup Day morning, soon after
8am, you need go to:
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au. You will see on
the top right hand side of the page a red members
only box. Click on this link.
...and when this takes you through to the next
page enter the following:
Name: member (all lower case..use the word
member...not your name)
Password: shocking2009 (all lower case – no
spaces)
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‘Refresh’ your computer
It is always a good habit to ‘refresh’ the password page on your computer. Computers
are geared to give you the same information on the page that was there last time you visited
so remember to ‘refresh’ the page. (Usually clicking on F5 will do that if you are using
Windows or the little refresh icon in the URL bar if you are using an Apple computer.)
Warning:
The password and access to this protected site is only for YOU. So, please DO NOT reveal the
password to this page to anyone. Otherwise, ‘the gods of luck’ may visit bad luck upon
your wagering in the Melbourne Cup. (Luck and omens are ‘big things’ amongst the racing
fraternity!
! ! !
NB. I recommend you try out accessing the password protected page
http://www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au as soon as possible. As already stated if you have
problems call Sallee Hitchins on 0414 776 149 any time between now and 1.00 pm on the day
of the Cup. (6th of November).
A good reason to ‘follow’ me on Twitter
If you are ‘into’ social media then you might want to ‘follow’ me. All you need is go to Twitter
and search for @MelbourneCupMax and indicate you want to follow me.
And here is why you might want to (a) get onto Twitter and (b) follow me @MelbourneCupMax
during October, before this eBook is in your hands the day after Caulfield Cup.
The day before the running of ‘The Metropolitan’ I wrote to my friend William Ryan, from
the Harold Park Hotel, in Sydney suggesting that the favourite Glencadam Gold would win
The Metropolitan.
But I suggested to him he should have a wager on Glencadam Gold in the Melbourne Cup. I
had already done this. The day before The Metropolitan Glencadam Gold was 50/1 in the
Bookmakers markets for the Melbourne Cup. I pointed out to William if Glencadam Gold won
The Metropolitan then its’ price in the Melbourne Cup would drop dramatically.
And that is exactly what has happened. Glencadam Gold easily won The Metropllitan and is
being trumpeted as a possible winner of the Melbourne Cup. See: http://
www.perthnow.com.au/sport/superracing/robbie-waterhouse-on-family-and-the-fallout-fromfine-cotton/story-fn67rs0f-1226494794811. Glencadam Gold’s price in the Melbourne Cup is
now being quoted at $9.00 at www.SportingBet.com.au
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Cup Statistics and Stories
There are a never ending stream of anecdotal stories associated with
the Melbourne Cup. This year I have added a page to our web site
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au titled Statistics and Stories.
If you are time poor what you will find at If you are you having a
function in your House, Home or Hall or in a Pub, Club, Hotel,
Restaurant, Bistro, or Office and you want to download a FREE
Melbourne Cup Trivia Question Sheet ......you are in the right
place....
If you are looking for trivia I think you will find this is a great
resource.
At my Blog, which you will find at www.TheMelbourneCup.Wordpress.com, you will find details
of all the lead up races mentioned between the running Caulfield Cup on the 21st of October
and Melbourne Cup Day on the 6th of November.
And, of course, I wish you every success in the 2012 Melbourne Cup.
Sincerely
Max Hitchins
PO Box 5250
Greenwich NSW
Tel: 0419 53 63 73
[email protected]
www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
www.TheMelbourneCup.wordpress.com
www.TheBestPub.com.au
www.HospitalityDoctor.com
PS. By the way....In my ‘real job’, as the Hospitality Doctor,
(See http://www.hospitalitydoctor.com/) I do seminars all
around the world focussing on marketing and memory. On
Cruise Ships I do sessions titled “How To Keep Your Mind
As Sharp As A Tack” and “The Five Most Important
Words In The History Of The World.”
I also do some complimentary memory sessions for schools.
And I particularly enjoy doing complimentary sessions for
senior Groups (eg. Probus) focussing on exercising your mind
to combat and ward off alzheimer’s and dementia.
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