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PRAISE FOR Why Nations Fail
“Acemoglu and Robinson have made an important
contribution to the debate as to why similar-looking nations
differ so greatly in their economic and political
development. Through a broad multiplicity of historical
examples, they show how institutional developments,
sometimes based on very accidental circumstances, have
had enormous consequences. The openness of a society,
its willingness to permit creative destruction, and the rule of
law appear to be decisive for economic development.”
—Kenneth J. Arrow, Nobel laureate in economics,
1972
“The authors convincingly show that countries escape
poverty only when they have appropriate economic
institutions, especially private property and competition.
More originally, they argue countries are more likely to
develop the right institutions when they have an open
pluralistic political system with competition for political
office, a widespread electorate, and openness to new
political leaders. This intimate connection between political
and economic institutions is the heart of their major
contribution, and has resulted in a study of great vitality on
one of the crucial questions in economics and political
economy.”
—Gary S. Becker, Nobel laureate in economics,
1992
“This important and insightful book, packed with historical
examples, makes the case that inclusive political
institutions in support of inclusive economic institutions is
key to sustained prosperity. The book reviews how some
good regimes got launched and then had a virtuous spiral,
while bad regimes remain in a vicious spiral. This is
important analysis not to be missed.”
—Peter Diamond, Nobel laureate in economics,
2010
“For those who think that a nation’s economic fate is
determined by geography or culture, Daron Acemoglu and
Jim Robinson have bad news. It’s manmade institutions,
not the lay of the land or the faith of our forefathers, that
determine whether a country is rich or poor. Synthesizing
brilliantly the work of theorists from Adam Smith to
Douglass North with more recent empirical research by
economic historians, Acemoglu and Robinson have
produced a compelling and highly readable book.”
—Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money
“Acemoglu and Robinson—two of the world’s leading
experts on development—reveal why it is not geography,
disease, or culture that explain why some nations are rich
and some poor, but rather a matter of institutions and
politics. This highly accessible book provides welcome
insight to specialists and general readers alike.”
—Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of
History and the Last Man and The Origins of
Political Order
“A brilliant and uplifting book—yet also a deeply disturbing
wake-up call. Acemoglu and Robinson lay out a convincing
theory of almost everything to do with economic
development. Countries rise when they put in place the right
pro-growth political institutions and they fail—often
spectacularly—when those institutions ossify or fail to
adapt. Powerful people always and everywhere seek to
grab complete control over government, undermining
broader social progress for their own greed. Keep those
people in check with effective democracy or watch your
nation fail.”
—Simon Johnson, coauthor of 13 Bankers and
professor at MIT Sloan
“Two of the world’s best and most erudite economists turn
to the hardest issue of all: why are some nations poor and
others rich? Written with a deep knowledge of economics
and political history, this is perhaps the most powerful
statement made to date that ‘institutions matter.’ A
provocative, instructive, yet thoroughly enthralling book.”
—Joel Mokyr, Robert H. Strotz Professor of Arts
and Sciences and Professor of Economics and
History, Northwestern University
“In this delightfully readable romp through four hundred
years of history, two of the giants of contemporary social
science bring us an inspiring and important message: it is
freedom that makes the world rich. Let tyrants everywhere
tremble!”
—Ian Morris, Stanford University, author of Why
the West Rules—for Now
“Imagine sitting around a table listening to Jared Diamond,
Joseph Schumpeter, and James Madison reflect on more
than two thousand years of political and economic history.
Imagine that they weave their ideas into a coherent
theoretical framework based on limiting extraction,
promoting creative destruction, and creating strong political
institutions that share power, and you begin to see the
contribution of this brilliant and engagingly written book.”
—Scott E. Page, University of Michigan and Santa
Fe Institute
“In this stunningly wide-ranging book, Acemoglu and
Robinson ask a simple but vital question, why do some
nations become rich and others remain poor? Their answer
is also simple—because some polities develop more
inclusive political institutions. What is remarkable about the
book is the crispness and clarity of the writing, the
elegance of the argument, and the remarkable richness of
historical detail. This book is a must-read at a moment
when governments across the Western world must come
up with the political will to deal with a debt crisis of unusual
proportions.”
—Steven Pincus, Bradford Durfee Professor of
History and International and Area Studies, Yale
University
“It’s the politics, stupid! That is Acemoglu and Robinson’s
simple yet compelling explanation for why so many
countries fail to develop. From the absolutism of the Stuarts
to the antebellum South, from Sierra Leone to Colombia,
this magisterial work shows how powerful elites rig the
rules to benefit themselves at the expense of the many.
Charting a careful course between the pessimists and
optimists, the authors demonstrate history and geography
need not be destiny. But they also document how sensible
economic ideas and policies often achieve little in the
absence of fundamental political change.”
—Dani Rodrik, Kennedy School of Government,
Harvard University
“This is not only a fascinating and interesting book: it is a
really important one. The highly original research that
Professors Acemoglu and Robinson have done, and
continue to do, on how economic forces, politics, and policy
choices evolve together and constrain each other, and how
institutions affect that evolution, is essential to
understanding the successes and failures of societies and
nations. And here, in this book, these insights come in a
highly accessible, indeed riveting form. Those who pick this
book up and start reading will have trouble putting it down.”
—Michael Spence, Nobel laureate in economics,
2001
“This fascinating and readable book centers on the
complex joint evolution of political and economic
institutions, in good directions and bad. It strikes a delicate
balance between the logic of political and economic
behavior and the shifts in direction created by contingent
historical events, large and small, at ‘critical junctures.’
Acemoglu and Robinson provide an enormous range of
historical examples to show how such shifts can tilt toward
favorable institutions, progressive innovation, and
economic success or toward repressive institutions and
eventual decay or stagnation. Somehow they can generate
both excitement and reflection.”
—Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics,
1987
Copyright © 2012 by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson
All rights reserved.
Published in the United States by Crown Publishers, an imprint of the
Crown Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York.
www.crownpublishing.com
CROWN and the CROWN colophon are registered trademarks of
Random House, Inc.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Acemoglu, Daron.
Why nations fail : the origins of power, prosperity, and poverty / Daron
Acemoglu, James A. Robinson.—1st ed.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Economics—Political aspects. 2. Economic history—Political
aspects. 3. Poverty—Developing countries. 4. Economic development
—Developing countries.
5. Revolutions—Economic aspects. 6. Developing countries—
Economic policy.
7. Developing countries—Social policy. I. Robinson, James A., 1960–.
II. Title.
HB74.P65A28 2012
330—dc23
2011023538
eISBN: 978-0-307-71923-2
Maps by Melissa Dell
Jacket design by David Tran
Jacket photograph by Kirk Mastin/Getty Images
v3.1
For Arda and Asu—DA
Para María Angélica, mi vida y mi alma—JR
CONTENTS
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
PREFACE
Why Egyptians filled Tahrir Square to bring down Hosni
Mubarak and what it means for our understanding of the
causes of prosperity and poverty
1.
SO CLOSE AND YET SO DIFFERENT
Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, have the same
people, culture, and geography. Why is one rich and one
poor?
2.
THEORIES THAT DON’T WORK
Poor countries are poor not because of their geographies
or cultures, or because their leaders do not know which
policies will enrich their citizens
3.
THE MAKING OF PROSPERITY AND POVERTY
How prosperity and poverty are determined by the
incentives created by institutions, and how politics
determines what institutions a nation has
4.
SMALL DIFFERENCES AND CRITICAL JUNCTURES: THE WEIGHT
OF HISTORY
How institutions change through political conflict and how
the past shapes the present
5.
“I’VE SEEN THE FUTURE, AND IT WORKS”: GROWTH UNDER
EXTRACTIVE INSTITUTIONS
What Stalin, King Shyaam, the Neolithic Revolution, and
the Maya city-states all had in common and how this
explains why China’s current economic growth cannot last
6.
DRIFTING APART
How institutions evolve over time, often slowly drifting
apart
7.
THE TURNING POINT
How a political revolution in 1688 changed institutions in
England and led to the Industrial Revolution
8.
NOT ON OUR TURF: BARRIERS TO DEVELOPMENT
Why the politically powerful in many nations opposed the
Industrial Revolution
Photo Inserts
9.
REVERSING DEVELOPMENT
How European colonialism impoverished large parts of
the world
10.
THE DIFFUSION OF PROSPERITY
How some parts of the world took different paths to
prosperity from that of Britain
11.
THE VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
How institutions that encourage prosperity create positive
feedback loops that prevent the efforts by elites to
undermine them
12.
THE VICIOUS CIRCLE
How institutions that create poverty generate negative
feedback loops and endure
13.
WHY NATIONS FAIL TODAY
Institutions, institutions, institutions
14.
BREAKING THE MOLD
How a few countries changed their economic trajectory by
changing their institutions
15.
UNDERSTANDING PROSPERITY AND POVERTY
How the world could have been different and how
understanding this can explain why most attempts to
combat poverty have failed
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
BIBLIOGRAPHICAL ESSAY AND SOURCES
REFERENCES
PREFACE
THIS BOOK IS about the huge differences in incomes and
standards of living that separate the rich countries of the
world, such as the United States, Great Britain, and
Germany, from the poor, such as those in sub-Saharan
Africa, Central America, and South Asia.
As we write this preface, North Africa and the Middle
East have been shaken by the “Arab Spring” started by the
so-called Jasmine Revolution, which was initially ignited by
public outrage over the self-immolation of a street vendor,
Mohamed Bouazizi, on December 17, 2010. By January
14, 2011, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled
Tunisia since 1987, had stepped down, but far from
abating, the revolutionary fervor against the rule of
privileged elites in Tunisia was getting stronger and had
already spread to the rest of the Middle East. Hosni
Mubarak, who had ruled Egypt with a tight grip for almost
thirty years, was ousted on February 11, 2011. The fates of
the regimes in Bahrain, Libya, Syria, and Yemen are
unknown as we complete this preface.
The roots of discontent in these countries lie in their
poverty. The average Egyptian has an income level of
around 12 percent of the average citizen of the United
States and can expect to live ten fewer years; 20 percent of
the population is in dire poverty. Though these differences
are significant, they are actually quite small compared with
those between the United States and the poorest countries
in the world, such as North Korea, Sierra Leone, and
Zimbabwe, where well over half the population lives in
poverty.
Why is Egypt so much poorer than the United States?
What are the constraints that keep Egyptians from
becoming more prosperous? Is the poverty of Egypt
immutable, or can it be eradicated? A natural way to start
thinking about this is to look at what the Egyptians
themselves are saying about the problems they face and
why they rose up against the Mubarak regime. Noha
Hamed, twenty-four, a worker at an advertising agency in
Cairo, made her views clear as she demonstrated in Tahrir
Square: “We are suffering from corruption, oppression and
bad education. We are living amid a corrupt system which
has to change.” Another in the square, Mosaab El Shami,
twenty, a pharmacy student, concurred: “I hope that by the
end of this year we will have an elected government and
that universal freedoms are applied and that we put an end
to the corruption that has taken over this country.” The
protestors in Tahrir Square spoke with one voice about the
corruption of the government, its inability to deliver public
services, and the lack of equality of opportunity in their
country. They particularly complained about repression and
the absence of political rights. As Mohamed ElBaradei,
former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
wrote on Twitter on January 13, 2011, “Tunisia: repression
+ absence of social justice + denial of channels for
peaceful change = a ticking bomb.” Egyptians and
Tunisians both saw their economic problems as being
fundamentally caused by their lack of political rights. When
the protestors started to formulate their demands more
systematically, the first twelve immediate demands posted
by Wael Khalil, the software engineer and blogger who
emerged as one of the leaders of the Egyptian protest
movement, were all focused on political change. Issues
such as raising the minimum wage appeared only among
the transitional demands that were to be implemented later.
To Egyptians, the things that have held them back
include an ineffective and corrupt state and a society where
they cannot use their talent, ambition, ingenuity, and what
education they can get. But they also recognize that the
roots of these problems are political. All the economic
impediments they face stem from the way political power in
Egypt is exercised and monopolized by a narrow elite.
This, they understand, is the first thing that has to change.
Yet, in believing this, the protestors of Tahrir Square have
sharply diverged from the conventional wisdom on this
topic. When they reason about why a country such as Egypt
is poor, most academics and commentators emphasize
completely different factors. Some stress that Egypt’s
poverty is determined primarily by its geography, by the fact
that the country is mostly a desert and lacks adequate
rainfall, and that its soils and climate do not allow
productive agriculture. Others instead point to cultural
attributes of Egyptians that are supposedly inimical to
economic development and prosperity. Egyptians, they
argue, lack the same sort of work ethic and cultural traits
that have allowed others to prosper, and instead have
accepted Islamic beliefs that are inconsistent with
economic success. A third approach, the one dominant
among economists and policy pundits, is based on the
notion that the rulers of Egypt simply don’t know what is
needed to make their country prosperous, and have
followed incorrect policies and strategies in the past. If
these rulers would only get the right advice from the right
advisers, the thinking goes, prosperity would follow. To
these academics and pundits, the fact that Egypt has been
ruled by narrow elites feathering their nests at the expense
of society seems irrelevant to understanding the country’s
economic problems.
In this book we’ll argue that the Egyptians in Tahrir
Square, not most academics and commentators, have the
right idea. In fact, Egypt is poor precisely because it has
been ruled by a narrow elite that have organized society for
their own benefit at the expense of the vast mass of people.
Political power has been narrowly concentrated, and has
been used to create great wealth for those who possess it,
such as the $70 billion fortune apparently accumulated by
ex-president Mubarak. The losers have been the Egyptian
people, as they only too well understand.
We’ll show that this interpretation of Egyptian poverty, the
people’s interpretation, turns out to provide a general
explanation for why poor countries are poor. Whether it is
North Korea, Sierra Leone, or Zimbabwe, we’ll show that
poor countries are poor for the same reason that Egypt is
poor. Countries such as Great Britain and the United
States became rich because their citizens overthrew the
elites who controlled power and created a society where
political rights were much more broadly distributed, where
the government was accountable and responsive to
citizens, and where the great mass of people could take
advantage of economic opportunities. We’ll show that to
understand why there is such inequality in the world today
we have to delve into the past and study the historical
dynamics of societies. We’ll see that the reason that Britain
is richer than Egypt is because in 1688, Britain (or
England, to be exact) had a revolution that transformed the
politics and thus the economics of the nation. People fought
for and won more political rights, and they used them to
expand their economic opportunities. The result was a
fundamentally different political and economic trajectory,
culminating in the Industrial Revolution.
The Industrial Revolution and the technologies it
unleashed didn’t spread to Egypt, as that country was
under the control of the Ottoman Empire, which treated
Egypt in rather the same way as the Mubarak family later
did. Ottoman rule in Egypt was overthrown by Napoleon
Bonaparte in 1798, but the country then fell under the
control of British colonialism, which had as little interest as
the Ottomans in promoting Egypt’s prosperity. Though the
Egyptians shook off the Ottoman and British empires and,
in 1952, overthrew their monarchy, these were not
revolutions like that of 1688 in England, and rather than
fundamentally transforming politics in Egypt, they brought to
power another elite as disinterested in achieving prosperity
for ordinary Egyptians as the Ottoman and British had
been. In consequence, the basic structure of society did not
change, and Egypt stayed poor.
In this book we’ll study how these patterns reproduce
themselves over time and why sometimes they are altered,
as they were in England in 1688 and in France with the
revolution of 1789. This will help us to understand if the
situation in Egypt has changed today and whether the
revolution that overthrew Mubarak will lead to a new set of
institutions capable of bringing prosperity to ordinary
Egyptians. Egypt has had revolutions in the past that did
not change things, because those who mounted the
revolutions simply took over the reins from those they’d
deposed and re-created a similar system. It is indeed
difficult for ordinary citizens to acquire real political power
and change the way their society works. But it is possible,
and we’ll see how this happened in England, France, and
the United States, and also in Japan, Botswana, and Brazil.
Fundamentally it is a political transformation of this sort that
is required for a poor society to become rich. There is
evidence that this may be happening in Egypt. Reda
Metwaly, another protestor in Tahrir Square, argued, “Now
you see Muslims and Christians together, now you see old
and young together, all wanting the same thing.” We’ll see
that such a broad movement in society was a key part of
what happened in these other political transformations. If
we understand when and why such transitions occur, we will
be in a better position to evaluate when we expect such
movements to fail as they have often done in the past and
when we may hope that they will succeed and improve the
lives of millions.
1.
SO CLOSE AND YET SO DIFFERENT
THE ECONOMICS OF THE RIO GRANDE
THE CITY OF NOGALES is cut in half by a fence. If you stand
by it and look north, you’ll see Nogales, Arizona, located in
Santa Cruz County. The income of the average household
there is about $30,000 a year. Most teenagers are in
school, and the majority of the adults are high school
graduates. Despite all the arguments people make about
how deficient the U.S. health care system is, the population
is relatively healthy, with high life expectancy by global
standards. Many of the residents are above age sixty-five
and have access to Medicare. It’s just one of the many
services the government provides that most take for
granted, such as electricity, telephones, a sewage system,
public health, a road network linking them to other cities in
the area and to the rest of the United States, and, last but
not least, law and order. The people of Nogales, Arizona,
can go about their daily activities without fear for life or
safety and not constantly afraid of theft, expropriation, or
other things that might jeopardize their investments in their
businesses and houses. Equally important, the residents of
Nogales, Arizona, take it for granted that, with all its
inefficiency and occasional corruption, the government is
their agent. They can vote to replace their mayor,
congressmen, and senators; they vote in the presidential
elections that determine who will lead their country.
Democracy is second nature to them.
Life south of the fence, just a few feet away, is rather
different. While the residents of Nogales, Sonora, live in a
relatively prosperous part of Mexico, the income of the
average household there is about one-third that in Nogales,
Arizona. Most adults in Nogales, Sonora, do not have a
high school degree, and many teenagers are not in school.
Mothers have to worry about high rates of infant mortality.
Poor public health conditions mean it’s no surprise that the
residents of Nogales, Sonora, do not live as long as their
northern neighbors. They also don’t have access to many
public amenities. Roads are in bad condition south of the
fence. Law and order is in worse condition. Crime is high,
and opening a business is a risky activity. Not only do you
risk robbery, but getting all the permissions and greasing
all the palms just to open is no easy endeavor. Residents of
Nogales, Sonora, live with politicians’ corruption and
ineptitude every day.
In contrast to their northern neighbors, democracy is a
very recent experience for them. Until the political reforms
of 2000, Nogales, Sonora, just like the rest of Mexico, was
under the corrupt control of the Institutional Revolutionary
Party, or Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI).
How could the two halves of what is essentially the same
city be so different? There is no difference in geography,
climate, or the types of diseases prevalent in the area,
since germs do not face any restrictions crossing back and
forth between the United States and Mexico. Of course,
health conditions are very different, but this has nothing to
do with the disease environment; it is because the people
south of the border live with inferior sanitary conditions and
lack decent health care.
But perhaps the residents are very different. Could it be
that the residents of Nogales, Arizona, are grandchildren of
migrants from Europe, while those in the south are
descendants of Aztecs? Not so. The backgrounds of
people on both sides of the border are quite similar. After
Mexico became independent from Spain in 1821, the area
around “Los dos Nogales” was part of the Mexican state of
Vieja California and remained so even after the MexicanAmerican War of 1846–1848. Indeed, it was only after the
Gadsden Purchase of 1853 that the U.S. border was
extended into this area. It was Lieutenant N. Michler who,
while surveying the border, noted the presence of the
“pretty little valley of Los Nogales.” Here, on either side of
the border, the two cities rose up. The inhabitants of
Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, share ancestors,
enjoy the same food and the same music, and, we would
hazard to say, have the same “culture.”
Of course, there is a very simple and obvious explanation
for the differences between the two halves of Nogales that
you’ve probably long since guessed: the very border that
defines the two halves. Nogales, Arizona, is in the United
States. Its inhabitants have access to the economic
institutions of the United States, which enable them to
choose their occupations freely, acquire schooling and
skills, and encourage their employers to invest in the best
technology, which leads to higher wages for them. They
also have access to political institutions that allow them to
take part in the democratic process, to elect their
representatives, and replace them if they misbehave. In
consequence, politicians provide the basic services
(ranging from public health to roads to law and order) that
the citizens demand. Those of Nogales, Sonora, are not so
lucky. They live in a different world shaped by different
institutions. These different institutions create very
disparate incentives for the inhabitants of the two
Nogaleses and for the entrepreneurs and businesses
willing to invest there. These incentives created by the
different institutions of the Nogaleses and the countries in
which they are situated are the main reason for the
differences in economic prosperity on the two sides of the
border.
Why are the institutions of the United States so much
more conducive to economic success than those of Mexico
or, for that matter, the rest of Latin America? The answer to
this question lies in the way the different societies formed
during the early colonial period. An institutional divergence
took place then, with implications lasting into the present
day. To understand this divergence we must begin right at
the foundation of the colonies in North and Latin America.
THE FOUNDING OF BUENOS AIRES
Early in 1516 the Spanish navigator Juan Díaz de Solís
sailed into a wide estuary on the Eastern Seaboard of
South America. Wading ashore, de Solís claimed the land
for Spain, naming the river the Río de la Plata, “River of
Silver,” since the local people possessed silver. The
indigenous peoples on either side of the estuary—the
Charrúas in what is now Uruguay, and the Querandí on the
plains that were to be known as the Pampas in modern
Argentina—regarded the newcomers with hostility. These
locals were hunter-gatherers who lived in small groups
without strong centralized political authorities. Indeed it was
such a band of Charrúas who clubbed de Solís to death as
he explored the new domains he had attemped to occupy
for Spain.
In 1534 the Spanish, still optimistic, sent out a first
mission of settlers from Spain under the leadership of
Pedro de Mendoza. They founded a town on the site of
Buenos Aires in the same year. It should have been an
ideal place for Europeans. Buenos Aires, literally meaning
“good airs,” had a hospitable, temperate climate. Yet the
first stay of the Spaniards there was short lived. They were
not after good airs, but resources to extract and labor to
coerce. The Charrúas and the Querandí were not obliging,
however. They refused to provide food to the Spaniards,
and refused to work when caught. They attacked the new
settlement with their bows and arrows. The Spaniards grew
hungry, since they had not anticipated having to provide
food for themselves. Buenos Aires was not what they had
dreamed of. The local people could not be forced into
providing labor. The area had no silver or gold to exploit,
and the silver that de Solís found had actually come all the
way from the Inca state in the Andes, far to the west.
The Spaniards, while trying to survive, started sending
out expeditions to find a new place that would offer greater
riches and populations easier to coerce. In 1537 one of
these expeditions, under the leadership of Juan de Ayolas,
penetrated up the Paraná River, searching for a route to the
Incas. On its way, it made contact with the Guaraní, a
sedentary people with an agricultural economy based on
maize and cassava. De Ayolas immediately realized that
the Guaraní were a completely different proposition from
the Charrúas and the Querandí. After a brief conflict, the
Spanish overcame Guaraní resistance and founded a town,
Nuestra Señora de Santa María de la Asunción, which
remains the capital of Paraguay today. The conquistadors
married the Guaraní princesses and quickly set themselves
up as a new aristocracy. They adapted the existing
systems of forced labor and tribute of the Guaraní, with
themselves at the helm. This was the kind of colony they
wanted to set up, and within four years Buenos Aires was
abandoned as all the Spaniards who’d settled there moved
to the new town.
Buenos Aires, the “Paris of South America,” a city of
wide European-style boulevards based on the great
agricultural wealth of the Pampas, was not resettled until
1580. The abandonment of Buenos Aires and the conquest
of the Guaraní reveals the logic of European colonization of
the Americas. Early Spanish and, as we will see, English
colonists were not interested in tilling the soil themselves;
they wanted others to do it for them, and they wanted
riches, gold and silver, to plunder.
FROM CAJAMARCA …
The expeditions of de Solís, de Mendoza, and de Ayolas
came in the wake of more famous ones that followed
Christopher Columbus’s sighting of one of the islands of
the Bahamas on October 12, 1492. Spanish expansion
and colonization of the Americas began in earnest with the
invasion of Mexico by Hernán Cortés in 1519, the
expedition of Francisco Pizarro to Peru a decade and a
half later, and the expedition of Pedro de Mendoza to the
Río de la Plata just two years after that. Over the next
century, Spain conquered and colonized most of central,
western, and southern South America, while Portugal
claimed Brazil to the east.
The Spanish strategy of colonization was highly effective.
First perfected by Cortés in Mexico, it was based on the
observation that the best way for the Spanish to subdue
opposition was to capture the indigenous leader. This
strategy enabled the Spanish to claim the accumulated
wealth of the leader and coerce the indigenous peoples to
give tribute and food. The next step was setting themselves
up as the new elite of the indigenous society and taking
control of the existing methods of taxation, tribute, and,
particularly, forced labor.
When Cortés and his men arrived at the great Aztec
capital of Tenochtitlan on November 8, 1519, they were
welcomed by Moctezuma, the Aztec emperor, who had
decided, in the face of much advice from his counselors, to
welcome the Spaniards peacefully. What happened next is
well described by the account compiled after 1545 by the
Franciscan priest Bernardino de Sahagún in his famous
Florentine Codices.
[At] once they [the Spanish] firmly seized
Moctezuma … then each of the guns shot
off … Fear prevailed. It was as if everyone
had swallowed his heart. Even before it had
grown dark, there was terror, there was
astonishment, there was apprehension, there
was a stunning of the people.
And when it dawned thereupon were
proclaimed all the things which [the
Spaniards] required: white tortillas, roasted
turkey hens, eggs, fresh water, wood,
firewood, charcoal … This had Moctezuma
indeed commanded.
And when the Spaniards were well settled,
they thereupon inquired of Moctezuma as to
all the city’s treasure … with great zeal they
sought gold. And Moctezuma thereupon went
leading the Spaniards. They went
surrounding him … each holding him, each
grasping him.
And when they reached the storehouse, a
place called Teocalco, thereupon they
brought forth all the brilliant things; the quetzal
feather head fan, the devices, the shields, the
golden discs … the golden nose crescents,
the golden leg bands, the golden arm bands,
the golden forehead bands.
Thereupon was detached the gold … at
once they ignited, set fire to … all the
precious things. They all burned. And the gold
the Spaniards formed into separate
bars … And the Spanish walked
everywhere … They took all, all that they saw
which they saw to be good.
Thereupon they went to Moctezuma’s own
storehouse
… at the place called
Totocalco
…
they
brought
forth
[Moctezuma’s] own property … precious
things all; the necklaces with pendants, the
arm bands with tufts of quetzal feathers, the
golden arm bands, the bracelets, the golden
bands with shells … and the turquoise
diadem, the attribute of the ruler. They took it
all.
The military conquest of the Aztecs was completed by
1521. Cortés, as governor of the province of New Spain,
then began dividing up the most valuable resource, the
indigenous population, through the institution of the
encomienda. The encomienda had first appeared in
fifteenth-century Spain as part of the reconquest of the
south of the country from the Moors, Arabs who had settled
during and after the eighth century. In the New World, it took
on a much more pernicious form: it was a grant of
indigenous peoples to a Spaniard, known as the
encomendero. The indigenous peoples had to give the
encomendero tribute and labor services, in exchange for
which the encomendero was charged with converting them
to Christianity.
A vivid early account of the workings of the encomienda
has come down to us from Bartolomé de las Casas, a
Dominican priest who formulated the earliest and one of
the most devastating critiques of the Spanish colonial
system. De las Casas arrived on the Spanish island of
Hispaniola in 1502 with a fleet of ships led by the new
governor, Nicolás de Ovando. He became increasingly
disillusioned and disturbed by the cruel and exploitative
treatment of the indigenous peoples he witnessed every
day. In 1513 he took part as a chaplain in the Spanish
conquest of Cuba, even being granted an encomienda for
his service. However, he renounced the grant and began a
long campaign to reform Spanish colonial institutions. His
efforts culminated in his book A Short Account of the
Destruction of the Indies, written in 1542, a withering
attack on the barbarity of Spanish rule. On the encomienda
he has this to say in the case of Nicaragua:
Each of the settlers took up residence in the
town allotted to him (or encommended to
him, as the legal phrase has it), put the
inhabitants to work for him, stole their already
scarce foodstuffs for himself and took over
the lands owned and worked by the natives
and on which they traditionally grew their own
produce. The settler would treat the whole of
the native population—dignitaries, old men,
women and children—as members of his
household and, as such, make them labor
night and day in his own interests, without any
rest whatsoever.
For the conquest of New Granada, modern Colombia, de
las Casas reports the whole Spanish strategy in action:
To realize their long-term purpose of seizing
all the available gold, the Spaniards
employed their usual strategy of apportioning
among themselves (or en-commending, as
they have it) the towns and their
inhabitants … and then, as ever, treating
them as common slaves. The man in overall
command of the expedition seized the King
of the whole territory for himself and held him
prisoner for six or seven months, quite illicitly
demanding more and more gold and
emeralds from him. This King, one Bogotá,
was so terrified that, in his anxiety to free
himself from the clutches of his tormentors,
he consented to the demand that he fill an
entire house with gold and hand it over; to
this end he sent his people off in search of
gold, and bit by bit they brought it along with
many precious stones. But still the house was
not filled and the Spaniards eventually
declared that they would put him to death for
breaking his promise. The commander
suggested they should bring the case before
him, as a representative of the law, and when
they did so, entering formal accusations
against the King, he sentenced him to torture
should he persist in not honoring the bargain.
They tortured him with the strappado, put
burning tallow on his belly, pinned both his
legs to poles with iron hoops and his neck
with another and then, with two men holding
his hands, proceeded to burn the soles of his
feet. From time to time, the commander
would look in and repeat that they would
torture him to death slowly unless he
produced more gold, and this is what they
did, the King eventually succumbing to the
agonies they inflicted on him.
The strategy and institutions of conquest perfected in
Mexico were eagerly adopted elsewhere in the Spanish
Empire. Nowhere was this done more effectively than in
Pizarro’s conquest of Peru. As de las Casas begins his
account:
In 1531 another great villain journeyed with a
number of men to the kingdom of Peru. He
set out with every intention of imitating the
strategy and tactics of his fellow adventurers
in other parts of the New World.
Pizarro began on the coast near the Peruvian town of
Tumbes and marched south. On November 15, 1532, he
reached the mountain town of Cajamarca, where the Inca
emperor Atahualpa was encamped with his army. The next
day, Atahualpa, who had just vanquished his brother
Huáscar in a contest over who would succeed their
deceased father, Huayna Capac, came with his retinue to
where the Spanish were camped. Atahualpa was irritated
because news of atrocities that the Spanish had already
committed, such as violating a temple of the Sun God Inti,
had reached him. What transpired next is well known. The
Spanish laid a trap and sprang it. They killed Atahualpa’s
guards and retainers, possibly as many as two thousand
people, and captured the king. To gain his freedom,
Atahualpa had to promise to fill one room with gold and two
more of the same size with silver. He did this, but the
Spanish, reneging on their promises, strangled him in July
1533. That November, the Spanish captured the Inca
capital of Cusco, where the Incan aristocracy received the
same treatment as Atahualpa, being imprisoned until they
produced gold and silver. When they did not satisfy
Spanish demands, they were burned alive. The great
artistic treasures of Cusco, such as the Temple of the Sun,
had their gold stripped from them and melted down into
ingots.
At this point the Spanish focused on the people of the
Inca Empire. As in Mexico, citizens were divided into
encomiendas, with one going to each of the conquistadors
who had accompanied Pizarro. The encomienda was the
main institution used for the control and organization of
labor in the early colonial period, but it soon faced a
vigorous contender. In 1545 a local named Diego Gualpa
was searching for an indigenous shrine high in the Andes in
what is today Bolivia. He was thrown to the ground by a
sudden gust of wind and in front of him appeared a cache
of silver ore. This was part of a vast mountain of silver,
which the Spanish baptized El Cerro Rico, “The Rich Hill.”
Around it grew the city of Potosí, which at its height in 1650
had a population of 160,000 people, larger than Lisbon or
Venice in this period.
To exploit the silver, the Spanish needed miners—a lot of
miners. They sent a new viceroy, the chief Spanish colonial
official, Francisco de Toledo, whose main mission was to
solve the labor problem. De Toledo, arriving in Peru in
1569, first spent five years traveling around and
investigating his new charge. He also commissioned a
massive survey of the entire adult population. To find the
labor he needed, de Toledo first moved almost the entire
indigenous population, concentrating them in new towns
c a lle d reducciones—literally “reductions”—which would
facilitate the exploitation of labor by the Spanish Crown.
Then he revived and adapted an Inca labor institution
known as the mita, which, in the Incas’ language, Quechua,
means “a turn.” Under their mita system, the Incas had used
forced labor to run plantations designed to provide food for
temples, the aristocracy, and the army. In return, the Inca
elite provided famine relief and security. In de Toledo’s
hands the mita, especially the Potosí mita, was to become
the largest and most onerous scheme of labor exploitation
in the Spanish colonial period. De Toledo defined a huge
catchment area, running from the middle of modern-day
Peru and encompassing most of modern Bolivia. It covered
about two hundred thousand square miles. In this area,
one-seventh of the male inhabitants, newly arrived in their
reducciones, were required to work in the mines at Potosí.
The Potosí mita endured throughout the entire colonial
period and was abolished only in 1825. Map 1 shows the
catchment area of the mita superimposed on the extent of
the Inca empire at the time of the Spanish conquest. It
illustrates the extent to which the mita overlapped with the
heartland of the empire, encompassing the capital Cusco.
Remarkably, you still see the legacy of the mita in Peru
today. Take the differences between the provinces of Calca
and nearby Acomayo. There appears to be few differences
among these provinces. Both are high in the mountains,
and each is inhabited by the Quechua-speaking
descendants of the Incas. Yet Acomayo is much poorer,
with its inhabitants consuming about one-third less than
those in Calca. The people know this. In Acomayo they ask
intrepid foreigners, “Don’t you know that the people here
are poorer than the people over there in Calca? Why would
you ever want to come here?” Intrepid because it is much
harder to get to Acomayo from the regional capital of
Cusco, ancient center of the Inca Empire, than it is to get to
Calca. The road to Calca is surfaced, the one to Acomayo
is in a terrible state of disrepair. To get beyond Acomayo,
you need a horse or a mule. In Calca and Acomayo, people
grow the same crops, but in Calca they sell them on the
market for money. In Acomayo they grow food for their own
subsistence. These inequalities, apparent to the eye and to
the people who live there, can be understood in terms of
the institutional differences between these departments—
institutional differences with historical roots going back to
de Toledo and his plan for effective exploitation of
indigenous labor. The major historical difference between
Acomayo and Calca is that Acomayo was in the catchment
area of the Potosí mita. Calca was not.
In addition to the concentration of labor and the mita, de
Toledo consolidated the encomienda into a head tax, a
fixed sum payable by each adult male every year in silver.
This was another scheme designed to force people into the
labor market and reduce wages for Spanish landowners.
Another institution, the repartimiento de mercancias, also
became widespread during de Toledo’s tenure. Derived
from the Spanish verb repartir, to distribute, this
repartimiento, literally “the distribution of goods,” involved
the forced sale of goods to locals at prices determined by
Spaniards. Finally, de Toledo introduced the trajin—
meaning, literally, “the burden”—which used the indigenous
people to carry heavy loads of goods, such as wine or coca
leaves or textiles, as a substitute for pack animals, for the
business ventures of the Spanish elite.
Throughout the Spanish colonial world in the Americas,
similar institutions and social structures emerged. After an
initial phase of looting, and gold and silver lust, the Spanish
created a web of institutions designed to exploit the
indigenous peoples. The full gamut of encomienda, mita,
repartimiento, and trajin was designed to force indigenous
people’s living standards down to a subsistence level and
thus extract all income in excess of this for Spaniards. This
was achieved by expropriating their land, forcing them to
work, offering low wages for labor services, imposing high
taxes, and charging high prices for goods that were not
even voluntarily bought. Though these institutions generated
a lot of wealth for the Spanish Crown and made the
conquistadors and their descendants very rich, they also
turned Latin America into the most unequal continent in the
world and sapped much of its economic potential.
… TO JAMESTOWN
As the Spanish began their conquest of the Americas in the
1490s, England was a minor European power recovering
from the devastating effects of a civil war, the Wars of the
Roses. She was in no state to take advantage of the
scramble for loot and gold and the opportunity to exploit the
indigenous peoples of the Americas. Nearly one hundred
years later, in 1588, the lucky rout of the Spanish Armada,
an attempt by King Philip II of Spain to invade England,
sent political shockwaves around Europe. Fortunate though
England’s victory was, it was also a sign of growing English
assertiveness on the seas that would enable them to finally
take part in the quest for colonial empire.
It is thus no coincidence that the English began their
colonization of North America at exactly the same time. But
they were already latecomers. They chose North America
not because it was attractive, but because it was all that
was available. The “desirable” parts of the Americas,
where the indigenous population to exploit was plentiful and
where the gold and silver mines were located, had already
been occupied. The English got the leftovers. When the
eighteenth-century English writer and agriculturalist Arthur
Young discussed where profitable “staple products,” by
which he meant exportable agricultural goods, were
produced, he noted:
It appears upon the whole, that the staple
productions of our colonies decrease in value
in proportion to their distance from the sun. In
the West Indies, which are the hottest of all,
they make to the amount of 8l. 12s. 1d. per
head. In the southern continental ones, to the
amount of 5l. 10s. In the central ones, to the
amount of 9s. 6 1/2d. In the northern
settlements, to that of 2s. 6d. This scale
surely suggests a most important lesson—to
avoid colonizing in northern latitudes.
The first English attempt to plant a colony, at Roanoke, in
North Carolina, between 1585 and 1587, was a complete
failure. In 1607 they tried again. Shortly before the end of
1606, three vessels, Susan Constant, Godspeed, and
Discovery, under the command of Captain Christopher
Newport, set off for Virginia. The colonists, under the
auspices of the Virginia Company, sailed into Chesapeake
Bay and up a river they named the James, after the ruling
English monarch, James I. On May 14, 1607, they founded
the settlement of Jamestown.
Though the settlers on board the ships owned by the
Virginia Company were English, they had a model of
colonization heavily influenced by the template set up by
Cortés, Pizarro, and de Toledo. Their first plan was to
capture the local chief and use him as a way to get
provisions and to coerce the population into producing food
and wealth for them.
When they first landed in Jamestown, the English
colonists did not know that they were within the territory
claimed by the Powhatan Confederacy, a coalition of some
thirty polities owing allegiance to a king called
Wahunsunacock. Wahunsunacock’s capital was at the town
of Werowocomoco, a mere twenty miles from Jamestown.
The plan of the colonists was to learn more about the lay of
the land. If the locals could not be induced to provide food
and labor, the colonists might at least be able to trade with
them. The notion that the settlers themselves would work
and grow their own food seems not to have crossed their
minds. That is not what conquerors of the New World did.
Wahunsunacock quickly became aware of the colonists’
presence and viewed their intentions with great suspicion.
He was in charge of what for North America was quite a
large empire. But he had many enemies and lacked the
overwhelming centralized political control of the Incas.
Wahunsunacock decided to see what the intentions of the
English were, initially sending messengers saying that he
desired friendly relations with them.
As the winter of 1607 closed in, the settlers in
Jamestown began to run low on food, and the appointed
leader of the colony’s ruling council, Edward Marie
Wingfield, dithered indecisively. The situation was rescued
by Captain John Smith. Smith, whose writings provide one
of our main sources of information about the early
development of the colony, was a larger-than-life character.
Born in England, in rural Lincolnshire, he disregarded his
father’s desires for him to go into business and instead
became a soldier of fortune. He first fought with English
armies in the Netherlands, after which he joined Austrian
forces serving in Hungary fighting against the armies of the
Ottoman Empire. Captured in Romania, he was sold as a
slave and put to work as a field hand. He managed one day
to overcome his master and, stealing his clothes and his
horse, escape back into Austrian territory. Smith had got
himself into trouble on the voyage to Virginia and was
imprisoned on the Susan Constant for mutiny after defying
the orders of Wingfield. When the ships reached the New
World, the plan was to put him on trial. To the immense
horror of Wingfield, Newport, and other elite colonists,
however, when they opened their sealed orders, they
discovered that the Virginia Company had nominated
Smith to be a member of the ruling council that was to
govern Jamestown.
With Newport sailing back to England for supplies and
more colonists, and Wingfield uncertain about what to do, it
was Smith who saved the colony. He initiated a series of
trading missions that secured vital food supplies. On one of
these he was captured by Opechancanough, one of
Wahunsunacock’s younger brothers, and was brought
before the king at Werowocomoco. He was the first
Englishman to meet Wahunsunacock, and it was at this
initial meeting that according to some accounts Smith’s life
was saved only at the intervention of Wahunsunacock’s
young daughter Pocahontas. Freed on January 2, 1608,
Smith returned to Jamestown, which was still perilously low
on food, until the timely return of Newport from England later
on the same day.
The colonists of Jamestown learned little from this initial
experience. As 1608 proceeded, they continued their quest
for gold and precious metals. They still did not seem to
understand that to survive, they could not rely on the locals
to feed them through either coercion or trade. It was Smith
who was the first to realize that the model of colonization
that had worked so well for Cortés and Pizarro simply
would not work in North America. The underlying
circumstances were just too different. Smith noted that,
unlike the Aztecs and Incas, the peoples of Virginia did not
have gold. Indeed, he noted in his diary, “Victuals you must
know is all their wealth.” Anas Todkill, one of the early
settlers who left an extensive diary, expressed well the
frustrations of Smith and the few others on which this
recognition dawned:
“There was no talke, no hope, no worke, but
dig gold, refine gold, load gold.”
When Newport sailed for England in April 1608 he took a
cargo of pyrite, fool’s gold. He returned at the end of
September with orders from the Virginia Company to take
firmer control over the locals. Their plan was to crown
Wahunsunacock, hoping this would render him subservient
to the English king James I. They invited him to Jamestown,
but Wahunsunacock, still deeply suspicious of the colonists,
had no intention of risking capture. John Smith recorded
Wahunsunacock’s reply: “If your King have sent me
presents, I also am a King, and this is my land … Your
father is to come to me, not I to him, nor yet to your fort,
neither will I bite at such a bait.”
If Wahunsunacock would not “bite at such a bait,”
Newport and Smith would have to go to Werowocomoco to
undertake the coronation. The whole event appears to have
been a complete fiasco, with the only thing coming out of it
a resolve on the part of Wahunsunacock that it was time to
get rid of the colony. He imposed a trade embargo.
Jamestown could no longer trade for supplies.
Wahunsunacock would starve them out.
Newport set sail once more for England, in December
1608. He took with him a letter written by Smith pleading
with the directors of the Virginia Company to change the
way they thought about the colony. There was no possibility
of a get-rich-quick exploitation of Virginia along the lines of
Mexico and Peru. There were no gold or precious metals,
and the indigenous people could not be forced to work or
provide food. Smith realized that if there were going to be a
viable colony, it was the colonists who would have to work.
He therefore pleaded with the directors to send the right
sort of people: “When you send againe I entreat you rather
to send some thirty carpenters, husbandmen, gardeners,
fishermen, blacksmiths, masons, and diggers up of trees,
roots, well provided, then a thousand of such as we have.”
Smith did not want any more useless goldsmiths. Once
more Jamestown survived only because of his
resourcefulness. He managed to cajole and bully local
indigenous groups to trade with him, and when they
wouldn’t, he took what he could. Back in the settlement,
Smith was completely in charge and imposed the rule that
“he that will not worke shall not eat.” Jamestown survived a
second winter.
The Virginia Company was intended to be a
moneymaking enterprise, and after two disastrous years,
there was no whiff of profit. The directors of the company
decided that they needed a new model of governance,
replacing the ruling council with a single governor. The first
man appointed to this position was Sir Thomas Gates.
Heeding some aspects of Smith’s warning, the company
realized that they had to try something new. This realization
was driven home by the events of the winter of 1609/1610
—the so-called “starving time.” The new mode of
governance left no room for Smith, who, disgruntled,
returned to England in the autumn of 1609. Without his
resourcefulness, and with Wahunsunacock throttling the
food supply, the colonists in Jamestown perished. Of the
five hundred who entered the winter, only sixty were alive by
March. The situation was so desperate that they resorted to
cannibalism.
The “something new” that was imposed on the colony by
Gates and his deputy, Sir Thomas Dale, was a work
regime of draconian severity for English settlers—though
not of course for the elite running the colony. It was Dale
who propagated the “Lawes Divine, Morall and Martiall.”
This included the clauses
No man or woman shall run away from the colony to the
Indians, upon pain of death.
Anyone who robs a garden, public or private, or a
vineyard, or who steals ears of corn shall be punished
with death.
No member of the colony will sell or give any
commodity of this country to a captain, mariner, master
or sailor to transport out of the colony, for his own
private uses, upon pain of death.
If the indigenous peoples could not be exploited,
reasoned the Virginia Company, perhaps the colonists
could. The new model of colonial development entailed the
Virginia Company owning all the land. Men were housed in
barracks, and given company-determined rations. Work
gangs were chosen, each one overseen by an agent of the
company. It was close to martial law, with execution as the
punishment of first resort. As part of the new institutions for
the colony, the first clause just given is significant. The
company threatened with death those who ran away. Given
the new work regime, running away to live with the locals
became more and more of an attractive option for the
colonists who had to do the work. Also available, given the
low density of even indigenous populations in Virginia at
that time, was the prospect of going it alone on the frontier
beyond the control of the Virginia Company. The power of
the company in the face of these options was limited. It
could not coerce the English settlers into hard work at
subsistence rations.
Map 2 shows an estimate of the population density of
different regions of the Americas at the time on the Spanish
conquest. The population density of the United States,
outside of a few pockets, was at most three-quarters of a
person per square mile. In central Mexico or Andean Peru,
the population density was as high as four hundred people
per square mile, more than five hundred times higher. What
was possible in Mexico or Peru was not feasible in
Virginia.
It took the Virginia Company some time to recognize that
its initial model of colonization did not work in Virginia, and
it took a while, too, for the failure of the “Lawes Divine,
Morall and Martiall” to sink in. Starting in 1618, a
dramatically new strategy was adopted. Since it was
possible to coerce neither the locals nor the settlers, the
only alternative was to give the settlers incentives. In 1618
the company began the “headright system,” which gave
each male settler fifty acres of land and fifty more acres for
each member of his family and for all servants that a family
could bring to Virginia. Settlers were given their houses
and freed from their contracts, and in 1619 a General
Assembly was introduced that effectively gave all adult men
a say in the laws and institutions governing the colony. It
was the start of democracy in the United States.
It took the Virginia Company twelve years to learn its first
lesson that what had worked for the Spanish in Mexico and
in Central and South America would not work in the north.
The rest of the seventeenth century saw a long series of
struggles over the second lesson: that the only option for an
economically viable colony was to create institutions that
gave the colonists incentives to invest and to work hard.
As North America developed, English elites tried time
and time again to set up institutions that would heavily
restrict the economic and political rights for all but a
privileged few of the inhabitants of the colony, just as the
Spanish did. Yet in each case this model broke down, as it
had in Virginia.
One of the most ambitious attempts began soon after the
change in strategy of the Virginia Company. In 1632 ten
million acres of land on the upper Chesapeake Bay were
granted by the English king Charles I to Cecilius Calvert,
Lord Baltimore. The Charter of Maryland gave Lord
Baltimore complete freedom to create a government along
any lines he wished, with clause VII noting that Baltimore
had “for the good and happy Government of the said
Province, free, full, and absolute Power, by the Tenor of
these Presents, to Ordain, Make, and Enact Laws, of what
Kind soever.”
Baltimore drew up a detailed plan for creating a manorial
society, a North American variant of an idealized version of
seventeenth-century rural England. It entailed dividing the
land into plots of thousands of acres, which would be run by
lords. The lords would recruit tenants, who would work the
lands and pay rents to the privileged elite controlling the
land. Another similar attempt was made later in 1663, with
the founding of Carolina by eight proprietors, including Sir
Anthony Ashley-Cooper. Ashley-Cooper, along with his
secretary, the great English philosopher John Locke,
formulated the Fundamental Constitutions of Carolina. This
document, like the Charter of Maryland before it, provided a
blueprint for an elitist, hierarchical society based on control
by a landed elite. The preamble noted that “the government
of this province may be made most agreeable to the
monarchy under which we live and of which this province is
a part; and that we may avoid erecting a numerous
democracy.”
The clauses of the Fundamental Constitutions laid out a
rigid social structure. At the bottom were the “leet-men,”
with clause 23 noting, “All the children of leet-men shall be
leet-men, and so to all generations.” Above the leet-men,
who had no political power, were the landgraves and
caziques, who were to form the aristocracy. Landgraves
were to be allocated forty-eight thousand acres of land
each, and caziques twenty-four thousand acres. There was
to be a parliament, in which landgraves and caziques were
represented, but it would be permitted to debate only those
measures that had previously been approved by the eight
proprietors.
Just as the attempt to impose draconian rule in Virginia
failed, so did the plans for the same type of institutions in
Maryland and Carolina. The reasons were similar. In all
cases it proved to be impossible to force settlers into a
rigid hierarchical society, because there were simply too
many options open to them in the New World. Instead, they
had to be provided with incentives for them to want to work.
And soon they were demanding more economic freedom
and further political rights. In Maryland, too, settlers insisted
on getting their own land, and they forced Lord Baltimore
into creating an assembly. In 1691 the assembly induced
the king to declare Maryland a Crown colony, thus removing
the political privileges of Baltimore and his great lords. A
similar protracted struggle took place in the Carolinas,
again with the proprietors losing. South Carolina became a
royal colony in 1729.
By the 1720s, all the thirteen colonies of what was to
become the United States had similar structures of
government. In all cases there was a governor, and an
assembly based on a franchise of male property holders.
They were not democracies; women, slaves, and the
propertyless could not vote. But political rights were very
broad compared with contemporary societies elsewhere. It
was these assemblies and their leaders that coalesced to
form the First Continental Congress in 1774, the prelude to
the independence of the United States. The assemblies
believed they had the right to determine both their own
membership and the right to taxation. This, as we know,
created problems for the English colonial government.
A TALE OF TWO CONSTITUTIONS
It should now be apparent that it is not a coincidence that
the United States, and not Mexico, adopted and enforced a
constitution that espoused democratic principles, created
limitations on the use of political power, and distributed that
power broadly in society. The document that the delegates
sat down to write in Philadelphia in May 1787 was the
outcome of a long process initiated by the formation of the
General Assembly in Jamestown in 1619.
The contrast between the constitutional process that took
place at the time of the independence of the United States
and the one that took place a little afterward in Mexico is
stark. In February 1808, Napoleon Bonaparte’s French
armies invaded Spain. By May they had taken Madrid, the
Spanish capital. By September the Spanish king
Ferdinand had been captured and had abdicated. A
national junta, the Junta Central, took his place, taking the
torch in the fight against the French. The Junta met first at
Aranjuez, but retreated south in the face of the French
armies. Finally it reached the port of Cádiz, which, though
besieged by Napoleonic forces, held out. Here the Junta
formed a parliament, called the Cortes. In 1812 the Cortes
produced what became known as the Cádiz Constitution,
which called for the introduction of a constitutional
monarchy based on notions of popular sovereignty. It also
called for the end of special privileges and the introduction
of equality before the law. These demands were all
anathema to the elites of South America, who were still
ruling an institutional environment shaped by the
encomienda, forced labor, and absolute power vested in
them and the colonial state.
The collapse of the Spanish state with the Napoleonic
invasion created a constitutional crisis throughout colonial
Latin America. There was much dispute about whether to
recognize the authority of the Junta Central, and in
response, many Latin Americans began to form their own
juntas. It was only a matter of time before they began to
sense the possibility of becoming truly independent from
Spain. The first declaration of independence took place in
La Paz, Bolivia, in 1809, though it was quickly crushed by
Spanish troops sent from Peru. In Mexico the political
attitudes of the elite had been shaped by the 1810 Hidalgo
Revolt, led by a priest, Father Miguel Hidalgo. When
Hidalgo’s army sacked Guanajuato on September 23, they
killed the intendant, the senior colonial official, and then
started indiscriminately to kill white people. It was more like
class or even ethnic warfare than an independence
movement, and it united all the elites in opposition. If
independence allowed popular participation in politics, the
local elites, not just Spaniards, were against it.
Consequentially, Mexican elites viewed the Cádiz
Constitution, which opened the way to popular
participation, with extreme skepticism; they would never
recognize its legitimacy.
In 1815, as Napoleon’s European empire collapsed,
King Ferdinand VII returned to power and the Cádiz
Constitution was abrogated. As the Spanish Crown began
trying to reclaim its American colonies, it did not face a
problem with loyalist Mexico. Yet, in 1820, a Spanish army
that had assembled in Cádiz to sail to the Americas to help
restore Spanish authority mutinied against Ferdinand VII.
They were soon joined by army units throughout the country,
and Ferdinand was forced to restore the Cádiz Constitution
and recall the Cortes. This Cortes was even more radical
than the one that had written the Cádiz Constitution, and it
proposed abolishing all forms of labor coercion. It also
attacked special privileges—for example, the right of the
military to be tried for crimes in their own courts. Faced
finally with the imposition of this document in Mexico, the
elites there decided that it was better to go it alone and
declare independence.
This independence movement was led by Augustín de
Iturbide, who had been an officer in the Spanish army. On
February 24, 1821, he published the Plan de Iguala, his
vision for an independent Mexico. The plan featured a
constitutional monarchy with a Mexican emperor, and
removed the provisions of the Cádiz Constitution that
Mexican elites found so threatening to their status and
privileges. It received instantaneous support, and Spain
quickly realized that it could not stop the inevitable. But
Iturbide did not just organize Mexican secession.
Recognizing the power vacuum, he quickly took advantage
of his military backing to have himself declared emperor, a
position that the great leader of South American
independence Simón Bolivar described as “by the grace of
God and of bayonets.” Iturbide was not constrained by the
same political institutions that constrained presidents of the
United States; he quickly made himself a dictator, and by
October 1822 he had dismissed the constitutionally
sanctioned congress and replaced it with a junta of his
choosing. Though Iturbide did not last long, this pattern of
events was to be repeated time and time again in
nineteenth-century Mexico.
The Constitution of the United States did not create a
democracy by modern standards. Who could vote in
elections was left up to the individual states to determine.
While northern states quickly conceded the vote to all white
men irrespective of how much income they earned or
property they owned, southern states did so only gradually.
No state enfranchised women or slaves, and as property
and wealth restrictions were lifted on white men, racial
franchises explicitly disenfranchising black men were
introduced. Slavery, of course, was deemed constitutional
when the Constitution of the United States was written in
Philadelphia, and the most sordid negotiation concerned
the division of the seats in the House of Representatives
among the states. These were to be allocated on the basis
of a state’s population, but the congressional
representatives of southern states then demanded that the
slaves be counted. Northerners objected. The compromise
was that in apportioning seats to the House of
Representatives, a slave would count as three-fifths of a
free person. The conflicts between the North and South of
the United States were repressed during the constitutional
process as the three-fifths rule and other compromises
were worked out. New fixes were added over time—for
example, the Missouri Compromise, an arrangement
where one proslavery and one antislavery state were
always added to the union together, to keep the balance in
the Senate between those for and those against slavery.
These fudges kept the political institutions of the United
States working peacefully until the Civil War finally resolved
the conflicts in favor of the North.
The Civil War was bloody and destructive. But both
before and after it there were ample economic
opportunities for a large fraction of the population,
especially in the northern and western United States. The
situation in Mexico was very different. If the United States
experienced five years of political instability between 1860
and 1865, Mexico experienced almost nonstop instability
for the first fifty years of independence. This is best
illustrated via the career of Antonio López de Santa Ana.
Santa Ana, son of a colonial official in Veracruz, came to
prominence as a soldier fighting for the Spanish in the
independence wars. In 1821 he switched sides with
Iturbide and never looked back. He became president of
Mexico for the first time in May of 1833, though he
exercised power for less than a month, preferring to let
Valentín Gómez Farías act as president. Gómez Farías’s
presidency lasted fifteen days, after which Santa Ana
retook power. This was as brief as his first spell, however,
and he was again replaced by Gómez Farías, in early July.
Santa Ana and Gómez Farías continued this dance until the
middle of 1835, when Santa Ana was replaced by Miguel
Barragán. But Santa Ana was not a quitter. He was back
as president in 1839, 1841, 1844, 1847, and, finally,
between 1853 and 1855. In all, he was president eleven
times, during which he presided over the loss of the Alamo
and Texas and the disastrous Mexican-American War,
which led to the loss of what became New Mexico and
Arizona. Between 1824 and 1867 there were fifty-two
presidents in Mexico, few of whom assumed power
according to any constitutionally sanctioned procedure.
The consequence of this unprecedented political
instability for economic institutions and incentives should
be obvious. Such instability led to highly insecure property
rights. It also led to a severe weakening of the Mexican
state, which now had little authority and little ability to raise
taxes or provide public services. Indeed, even though
Santa Ana was president in Mexico, large parts of the
country were not under his control, which enabled the
annexation of Texas by the United States. In addition, as
we just saw, the motivation behind the Mexican declaration
of independence was to protect the set of economic
institutions developed during the colonial period, which had
made Mexico, in the words of the great German explorer
and geographer of Latin America Alexander von Humbolt,
“the country of inequality.” These institutions, by basing the
society on the exploitation of indigenous people and the
creation of monopolies, blocked the economic incentives
and initiatives of the great mass of the population. As the
United States began to experience the Industrial Revolution
in the first half of the nineteenth century, Mexico got poorer.
HAVING AN IDEA, STARTING A FIRM, AND GETTING A LOAN
The Industrial Revolution started in England. Its first
success was to revolutionize the production of cotton cloth
using new machines powered by water wheels and later by
steam engines. Mechanization of cotton production
massively increased the productivity of workers in, first,
textiles and, subsequently, other industries. The engine of
technological breakthroughs throughout the economy was
innovation, spearheaded by new entrepreneurs and
businessmen eager to apply their new ideas. This initial
flowering soon spread across the North Atlantic to the
United States. People saw the great economic
opportunities available in adopting the new technologies
developed in England. They were also inspired to develop
their own inventions.
We can try to understand the nature of these inventions
by looking at who was granted patents. The patent system,
which protects property rights in ideas, was systematized in
the Statute of Monopolies legislated by the English
Parliament in 1623, partially as an attempt to stop the king
from arbitrarily granting “letters patent” to whomever he
wanted—effectively granting exclusive rights to undertake
certain activities or businesses. The striking thing about the
evidence on patenting in the United States is that people
who were granted patents came from all sorts of
backgrounds and all walks of life, not just the rich and the
elite. Many made fortunes based on their patents. Take
Thomas Edison, the inventor of the phonogram and the
lightbulb and the founder of General Electric, still one of the
world’s largest companies. Edison was the last of seven
children. His father, Samuel Edison, followed many
occupations, from splitting shingles for roofs to tailoring to
keeping a tavern. Thomas had little formal schooling but
was homeschooled by his mother.
Between 1820 and 1845, only 19 percent of patentees in
the United States had parents who were professionals or
were from recognizable major landowning families. During
the same period, 40 percent of those who took out patents
had only primary schooling or less, just like Edison.
Moreover, they often exploited their patent by starting a
firm, again like Edison. Just as the United States in the
nineteenth century was more democratic politically than
almost any other nation in the world at the time, it was also
more democratic than others when it came to innovation.
This was critical to its path to becoming the most
economically innovative nation in the world.
If you were poor with a good idea, it was one thing to
take out a patent, which was not so expensive, after all. It
was another thing entirely to use that patent to make
money. One way, of course, was to sell the patent to
someone else. This is what Edison did early on, to raise
some capital, when he sold his Quadruplex telegraph to
Western Union for $10,000. But selling patents was a good
idea only for someone like Edison, who had ideas faster
than he could put them to practice. (He had a world-record
1,093 patents issued to him in the United States and 1,500
worldwide.) The real way to make money from a patent was
to start your own business. But to start a business, you
need capital, and you need banks to lend the capital to you.
Inventors in the United States were once again fortunate.
During the nineteenth century there was a rapid expansion
of financial intermediation and banking that was a crucial
facilitator of the rapid growth and industrialization that the
economy experienced. While in 1818 there were 338
banks in operation in the United States, with total assets of
$160 million, by 1914 there were 27,864 banks, with total
assets of $27.3 billion. Potential inventors in the United
States had ready access to capital to start their
businesses. Moreover, the intense competition among
banks and financial institutions in the United States meant
that this capital was available at fairly low interest rates.
The same was not true in Mexico. In fact, in 1910, the
year in which the Mexican Revolution started, there were
only forty-two banks in Mexico, and two of these controlled
60 percent of total banking assets. Unlike in the United
States, where competition was fierce, there was practically
no competition among Mexican banks. This lack of
competition meant that the banks were able to charge their
customers very high interest rates, and typically confined
lending to the privileged and the already wealthy, who
would then use their access to credit to increase their grip
over the various sectors of the economy.
The form that the Mexican banking industry took in the
nineteenth and twentieth centuries was a direct result of the
postindependence political institutions of the country. The
chaos of the Santa Ana era was followed by an abortive
attempt by the French government of Emperor Napoleon II
to create a colonial regime in Mexico under Emperor
Maximilian between 1864 and 1867. The French were
expelled, and a new constitution was written. But the
government formed first by Benito Juárez and, after his
death, by Sebastián Lerdo de Tejada was soon challenged
by a young military man named Porfirio Díaz. Díaz had
been a victorious general in the war against the French and
had developed aspirations of power. He formed a rebel
army and, in November of 1876, defeated the army of the
government at the Battle of Tecoac. In May of the next year,
he had himself elected president. He went on to rule
Mexico in a more or less unbroken and increasingly
authoritarian fashion until his overthrow at the outbreak of
the revolution thirty-four years later.
Like Iturbide and Santa Ana before him, Díaz started life
as a military commander. Such a career path into politics
was certainly known in the United States. The first president
of the United States, George Washington, was also a
successful general in the War of Independence. Ulysses S.
Grant, one of the victorious Union generals of the Civil War,
became president in 1869, and Dwight D. Eisenhower, the
supreme commander of the Allied Forces in Europe during
the Second World War, was president of the United States
between 1953 and 1961. Unlike Iturbide, Santa Ana, and
Díaz, however, none of these military men used force to get
into power. Nor did they use force to avoid having to
relinquish power. They abided by the Constitution. Though
Mexico had constitutions in the nineteenth century, they put
few constraints on what Iturbide, Santa Ana, and Díaz could
do. These men could be removed from power only the
same way they had attained it: by the use of force.
Díaz violated people’s property rights, facilitating the
expropriation of vast amounts of land, and he granted
monopolies and favors to his supporters in all lines of
business, including banking. There was nothing new about
this behavior. This is exactly what Spanish conquistadors
had done, and what Santa Ana did in their footsteps.
The reason that the United States had a banking industry
that was radically better for the economic prosperity of the
country had nothing to do with differences in the motivation
of those who owned the banks. Indeed, the profit motive,
which underpinned the monopolistic nature of the banking
industry in Mexico, was present in the United States, too.
But this profit motive was channeled differently because of
the radically different U.S. institutions. The bankers faced
different economic institutions, institutions that subjected
them to much greater competition. And this was largely
because the politicians who wrote the rules for the bankers
faced very different incentives themselves, forged by
different political institutions. Indeed, in the late eighteenth
century, shortly after the Constitution of the United States
came into operation, a banking system looking similar to
that which subsequently dominated Mexico began to
emerge. Politicians tried to set up state banking
monopolies, which they could give to their friends and
partners in exchange for part of the monopoly profits. The
banks also quickly got into the business of lending money
to the politicians who regulated them, just as in Mexico. But
this situation was not sustainable in the United States,
because the politicians who attempted to create these
banking monopolies, unlike their Mexican counterparts,
were subject to election and reelection. Creating banking
monopolies and giving loans to politicians is good
business for politicians, if they can get away with it. It is not
particularly good for the citizens, however. Unlike in Mexico,
in the United States the citizens could keep politicians in
check and get rid of ones who would use their offices to
enrich themselves or create monopolies for their cronies. In
consequence, the banking monopolies crumbled. The
broad distribution of political rights in the United States,
especially when compared to Mexico, guaranteed equal
access to finance and loans. This in turn ensured that those
with ideas and inventions could benefit from them.
PATH-DEPENDENT CHANGE
The world was changing in the 1870s and ’80s. Latin
America was no exception. The institutions that Porfirio
Díaz established were not identical to those of Santa Ana
or the Spanish colonial state. The world economy boomed
in the second half of the nineteenth century, and innovations
in transportation such as the steamship and the railway led
to a huge expansion of international trade. This wave of
globalization meant that resource-rich countries such as
Mexico—or, more appropriately, the elites in such countries
—could enrich themselves by exporting raw materials and
natural resources to industrializing North America or
Western Europe. Díaz and his cronies thus found
themselves in a different and rapidly evolving world. They
realized that Mexico had to change, too. But this didn’t
mean uprooting the colonial institutions and replacing them
with institutions similar to those in the United States.
Instead, theirs was “path-dependent” change leading only
to the next stage of the institutions that had already made
much of Latin America poor and unequal.
Globalization made the large open spaces of the
Americas, its “open frontiers,” valuable. Often these
frontiers were only mythically open, since they were
inhabited by indigenous peoples who were brutally
dispossessed. All the same, the scramble for this newly
valuable resource was one of the defining processes of the
Americas in the second half of the nineteenth century. The
sudden opening of this valuable frontier led not to parallel
processes in the United States and Latin America, but to a
further divergence, shaped by the existing institutional
differences, especially those concerning who had access
to the land. In the United States a long series of legislative
acts, ranging from the Land Ordinance of 1785 to the
Homestead Act of 1862, gave broad access to frontier
lands. Though indigenous peoples had been sidelined, this
created an egalitarian and economically dynamic frontier. In
most Latin American countries, however, the political
institutions there created a very different outcome. Frontier
lands were allocated to the politically powerful and those
with wealth and contacts, making such people even more
powerful.
Díaz also started to dismantle many of the specific
colonial institutional legacies preventing international trade,
which he anticipated could greatly enrich him and his
supporters. His model, however, continued to be not the
type of economic development he saw north of the Rio
Grande but that of Cortés, Pizarro, and de Toledo, where
the elite would make huge fortunes while the rest were
excluded. When the elite invested, the economy would grow
a little, but such economic growth was always going to be
disappointing. It also came at the expense of those lacking
rights in this new order, such as the Yaqui people of
Sonora, in the hinterland of Nogales. Between 1900 and
1910, possibly thirty thousand Yaqui were deported,
essentially enslaved, and sent to work in the henequen
plantations of Yucatán. (The fibers of the henequen plant
were a valuable export, since they could be used to make
rope and twine.)
The persistence into the twentieth century of a specific
institutional pattern inimical to growth in Mexico and Latin
America is well illustrated by the fact that, just as in the
nineteenth century, the pattern generated economic
stagnation and political instability, civil wars and coups, as
groups struggled for the benefits of power. Díaz finally lost
power to revolutionary forces in 1910. The Mexican
Revolution was followed by others in Bolivia in 1952, Cuba
in 1959, and Nicaragua in 1979. Meanwhile, sustained civil
wars raged in Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and
Peru. Expropriation or the threat of expropriation of assets
continued apace, with mass agrarian reforms (or attempted
reforms) in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala,
Peru, and Venezuela. Revolutions, expropriations, and
political instability came along with military governments
and various types of dictatorships. Though there was also a
gradual drift toward greater political rights, it was only in the
1990s that most Latin American countries became
democracies, and even then they remain mired in
instability.
This instability was accompanied by mass repression
and murder. The 1991 National Commission for Truth and
Reconciliation Report in Chile determined that 2,279
persons were killed for political reasons during the
Pinochet dictatorship between 1973 and 1990. Possibly
50,000 were imprisoned and tortured, and hundreds of
thousands of people were fired from their jobs. The
Guatemalan Commission for Historical Clarification Report
in 1999 identified a total of 42,275 named victims, though
others have claimed that as many as 200,000 were
murdered in Guatemala between 1962 and 1996, 70,000
during the regime of General Efrain Ríos Montt, who was
able to commit these crimes with such impunity that he
could run for president in 2003; fortunately he did not win.
The National Commission on the Disappearance of
Persons in Argentina put the number of people murdered
by the military there at 9,000 persons from 1976 to 1983,
although it noted that the actual number could be higher.
(Estimates by human rights organizations usually place it at
30,000.)
MAKING A BILLION OR TWO
The enduring implications of the organization of colonial
society and those societies’ institutional legacies shape the
modern differences between the United States and Mexico,
and thus the two parts of Nogales. The contrast between
how Bill Gates and Carlos Slim became the two richest
men in the world—Warren Buffett is also a contender—
illustrates the forces at work. The rise of Gates and
Microsoft is well known, but Gates’s status as the world’s
richest person and the founder of one of the most
technologically innovative companies did not stop the U.S.
Department of Justice from filing civil actions against the
Microsoft Corporation on May 8, 1998, claiming that
Microsoft had abused monopoly power. Particularly at
issue was the way that Microsoft had tied its Web browser,
Internet Explorer, to its Windows operating system. The
government had been keeping an eye on Gates for quite
some time, and as early as 1991, the Federal Trade
Commission had launched an inquiry into whether
Microsoft was abusing its monopoly on PC operating
systems. In November 2001, Microsoft reached a deal with
the Justice Department. It had its wings clipped, even if the
penalties were less than many demanded.
In Mexico, Carlos Slim did not make his money by
innovation. Initially he excelled in stock market deals, and in
buying and revamping unprofitable firms. His major coup
was the acquisition of Telmex, the Mexican
telecommunications monopoly that was privatized by
President Carlos Salinas in 1990. The government
announced its intention to sell 51 percent of the voting stock
(20.4 percent of total stock) in the company in September
1989 and received bids in November 1990. Even though
Slim did not put in the highest bid, a consortium led by his
Grupo Corso won the auction. Instead of paying for the
shares right away, Slim managed to delay payment, using
the dividends of Telmex itself to pay for the stock. What
was once a public monopoly now became Slim’s
monopoly, and it was hugely profitable.
The economic institutions that made Carlos Slim who he
is are very different from those in the United States. If you’re
a Mexican entrepreneur, entry barriers will play a crucial
role at every stage of your career. These barriers include
expensive licenses you have to obtain, red tape you have to
cut through, politicians and incumbents who will stand in
your way, and the difficulty of getting funding from a
financial sector often in cahoots with the incumbents you’re
trying to compete against. These barriers can be either
insurmountable, keeping you out of lucrative areas, or your
greatest friend, keeping your competitors at bay. The
difference between the two scenarios is of course whom
you know and whom you can influence—and yes, whom you
can bribe. Carlos Slim, a talented, ambitious man from a
relatively modest background of Lebanese immigrants, has
been a master at obtaining exclusive contracts; he
managed to monopolize the lucrative telecommunications
market in Mexico, and then to extend his reach to the rest of
Latin America.
There have been challenges to Slim’s Telmex monopoly.
But they have not been successful. In 1996 Avantel, a longdistance phone provider, petitioned the Mexican
Competition Commission to check whether Telmex had a
dominant position in the telecommunications market. In
1997 the commission declared that Telmex had substantial
monopoly power with respect to local telephony, national
long-distance calls, and international long-distance calls,
among other things. But attempts by the regulatory
authorities in Mexico to limit these monopolies have come
to nothing. One reason is that Slim and Telmex can use
what is known as a recurso de amparo, literally an “appeal
for protection.” An amparo is in effect a petition to argue
that a particular law does not apply to you. The idea of the
amparo dates back to the Mexican constitution of 1857
and was originally intended as a safeguard of individual
rights and freedoms. In the hands of Telmex and other
Mexican monopolies, however, it has become a formidable
tool for cementing monopoly power. Rather than protecting
people’s rights, the amparo provides a loophole in equality
before the law.
Slim has made his money in the Mexican economy in
large part thanks to his political connections. When he has
ventured into the United States, he has not been
successful. In 1999 his Grupo Curso bought the computer
retailer CompUSA. At the time, CompUSA had given a
franchise to a firm called COC Services to sell its
merchandise in Mexico. Slim immediately violated this
contract with the intention of setting up his own chain of
stores, without any competition from COC. But COC sued
CompUSA in a Dallas court. There are no amparos in
Dallas, so Slim lost, and was fined $454 million. The lawyer
for COC, Mark Werner, noted afterward that “the message
of this verdict is that in this global economy, firms have to
respect the rules of the United States if they want to come
here.” When Slim was subject to the institutions of the
United States, his usual tactics for making money didn’t
work.
TOWARD A THEORY OF WORLD INEQUALITY
We live in an unequal world. The differences among nations
are similar to those between the two parts of Nogales, just
on a larger scale. In rich countries, individuals are healthier,
live longer, and are much better educated. They also have
access to a range of amenities and options in life, from
vacations to career paths, that people in poor countries can
only dream of. People in rich countries also drive on roads
without potholes, and enjoy toilets, electricity, and running
water in their houses. They also typically have governments
that do not arbitrarily arrest or harass them; on the contrary,
the governments provide services, including education,
health care, roads, and law and order. Notable, too, is the
fact that the citizens vote in elections and have some voice
in the political direction their countries take.
The great differences in world inequality are evident to
everyone, even to those in poor countries, though many
lack access to television or the Internet. It is the perception
and reality of these differences that drive people to cross
the Rio Grande or the Mediterranean Sea illegally to have
the chance to experience rich-country living standards and
opportunities. This inequality doesn’t just have
consequences for the lives of individual people in poor
countries; it also causes grievances and resentment, with
huge political consequences in the United States and
elsewhere. Understanding why these differences exist and
what causes them is our focus in this book. Developing
such an understanding is not just an end in itself, but also a
first step toward generating better ideas about how to
improve the lives of billions who still live in poverty.
The disparities on the two sides of the fence in Nogales
are just the tip of the iceberg. As in the rest of northern
Mexico, which benefits from trade with the United States,
even if not all of it is legal, the residents of Nogales are
more prosperous than other Mexicans, whose average
annual household income is around $5,000. This greater
relative prosperity of Nogales, Sonora, comes from
maquiladora manufacturing plants centered in industrial
parks, the first of which was started by Richard Campbell,
Jr., a California basket manufacturer. The first tenant was
Coin-Art, a musical instrument company owned by Richard
Bosse, owner of the Artley flute and saxophone company in
Nogales, Arizona. Coin-Art was followed by Memorex
(computer wiring); Avent (hospital clothing); Grant
(sunglasses); Chamberlain (a manufacturer of garage door
openers for Sears); and Samsonite (suitcases).
Significantly, all are U.S.-based businesses and
businessmen, using U.S. capital and know-how. The
greater prosperity of Nogales, Sonora, relative to the rest of
Mexico, therefore, comes from outside.
The differences between the United States and Mexico
are in turn small compared with those across the entire
globe. The average citizen of the United States is seven
times as prosperous as the average Mexican and more
than ten times as the resident of Peru or Central America.
She is about twenty times as prosperous as the average
inhabitant of sub-Saharan Africa, and almost forty times as
those living in the poorest African countries such as Mali,
Ethiopia, and Sierra Leone. And it’s not just the United
States. There is a small but growing group of rich countries
—mostly in Europe and North America, joined by Australia,
Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan
—whose citizens enjoy very different lives from those of the
inhabitants of the rest of the globe.
The reason that Nogales, Arizona, is much richer than
Nogales, Sonora, is simple; it is because of the very
different institutions on the two sides of the border, which
create very different incentives for the inhabitants of
Nogales, Arizona, versus Nogales, Sonora. The United
States is also far richer today than either Mexico or Peru
because of the way its institutions, both economic and
political, shape the incentives of businesses, individuals,
and politicians. Each society functions with a set of
economic and political rules created and enforced by the
state and the citizens collectively. Economic institutions
shape economic incentives: the incentives to become
educated, to save and invest, to innovate and adopt new
technologies, and so on. It is the political process that
determines what economic institutions people live under,
and it is the political institutions that determine how this
process works. For example, it is the political institutions of
a nation that determine the ability of citizens to control
politicians and influence how they behave. This in turn
determines whether politicians are agents of the citizens,
albeit imperfect, or are able to abuse the power entrusted
to them, or that they have usurped, to amass their own
fortunes and to pursue their own agendas, ones detrimental
to those of the citizens. Political institutions include but are
not limited to written constitutions and to whether the
society is a democracy. They include the power and
capacity of the state to regulate and govern society. It is
also necessary to consider more broadly the factors that
determine how political power is distributed in society,
particularly the ability of different groups to act collectively
to pursue their objectives or to stop other people from
pursuing theirs.
As institutions influence behavior and incentives in real
life, they forge the success or failure of nations. Individual
talent matters at every level of society, but even that needs
an institutional framework to transform it into a positive
force. Bill Gates, like other legendary figures in the
information technology industry (such as Paul Allen, Steve
Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Jeff
Bezos), had immense talent and ambition. But he ultimately
responded to incentives. The schooling system in the
United States enabled Gates and others like him to acquire
a unique set of skills to complement their talents. The
economic institutions in the United States enabled these
men to start companies with ease, without facing
insurmountable barriers. Those institutions also made the
financing of their projects feasible. The U.S. labor markets
enabled them to hire qualified personnel, and the relatively
competitive market environment enabled them to expand
their companies and market their products. These
entrepreneurs were confident from the beginning that their
dream projects could be implemented: they trusted the
institutions and the rule of law that these generated and
they did not worry about the security of their property rights.
Finally, the political institutions ensured stability and
continuity. For one thing, they made sure that there was no
risk of a dictator taking power and changing the rules of the
game, expropriating their wealth, imprisoning them, or
threatening their lives and livelihoods. They also made sure
that no particular interest in society could warp the
government in an economically disastrous direction,
because political power was both limited and distributed
sufficiently broadly that a set of economic institutions that
created the incentives for prosperity could emerge.
This book will show that while economic institutions are
critical for determining whether a country is poor or
prosperous, it is politics and political institutions that
determine what economic institutions a country has.
Ultimately the good economic institutions of the United
States resulted from the political institutions that gradually
emerged after 1619. Our theory for world inequality shows
how political and economic institutions interact in causing
poverty or prosperity, and how different parts of the world
ended up with such different sets of institutions. Our brief
review of the history of the Americas begins to give a
sense of the forces that shape political and economic
institutions. Different patterns of institutions today are
deeply rooted in the past because once society gets
organized in a particular way, this tends to persist. We’ll
show that this fact comes from the way that political and
economic institutions interact.
This persistence and the forces that create it also explain
why it is so difficult to remove world inequality and to make
poor countries prosperous. Though institutions are the key
to the differences between the two Nogaleses and between
Mexico and the United States, that doesn’t mean there will
be a consensus in Mexico to change institutions. There is
no necessity for a society to develop or adopt the
institutions that are best for economic growth or the welfare
of its citizens, because other institutions may be even
better for those who control politics and political institutions.
The powerful and the rest of society will often disagree
about which set of institutions should remain in place and
which ones should be changed. Carlos Slim would not have
been happy to see his political connections disappear and
the entry barriers protecting his businesses fizzle—no
matter that the entry of new businesses would enrich
millions of Mexicans. Because there is no such consensus,
what rules society ends up with is determined by politics:
who has power and how this power can be exercised.
Carlos Slim has the power to get what he wants. Bill
Gates’s power is far more limited. That’s why our theory is
about not just economics but also politics. It is about the
effects of institutions on the success and failure of nations
—thus the economics of poverty and prosperity; it is also
about how institutions are determined and change over
time, and how they fail to change even when they create
poverty and misery for millions—thus the politics of poverty
and prosperity.
2.
THEORIES THAT DON’T WORK
THE LAY OF THE LAND
THE FOCUS OF our book is on explaining world inequality
and also some of the easily visible broad patterns that nest
within it. The first country to experience sustained economic
growth was England—or Great Britain, usually just Britain,
as the union of England, Wales, and Scotland after 1707 is
known. Growth emerged slowly in the second half of the
eighteenth century as the Industrial Revolution, based on
major technological breakthroughs and their application in
industry, took root. Industrialization in England was soon
followed by industrialization in most of Western Europe and
the United States. English prosperity also spread rapidly to
Britain’s “settler colonies” of Canada, Australia, and New
Zealand. A list of the thirty richest countries today would
include them, plus Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.
The prosperity of these latter three is in turn part of a
broader pattern in which many East Asian nations,
including Taiwan and subsequently China, have
experienced recent rapid growth.
The bottom of the world income distribution paints as
sharp and as distinctive a picture as the top. If you instead
make a list of the poorest thirty countries in the world today,
you will find almost all of them in sub-Saharan Africa. They
are joined by countries such as Afghanistan, Haiti, and
Nepal, which, though not in Africa, all share something
critical with African nations, as we’ll explain. If you went
back fifty years, the countries in the top and bottom thirty
wouldn’t be greatly different. Singapore and South Korea
would not be among the richest countries, and there would
be several different countries in the bottom thirty, but the
overall picture that emerged would be remarkably
consistent with what we see today. Go back one hundred
years, or a hundred and fifty, and you’d find nearly the same
countries in the same groups.
Map 3 shows the lay of the land in 2008. The countries
shaded in the darkest color are the poorest in the world,
those where average per-capita incomes (called by
economists GDP, gross domestic product) are less than
$2,000 annually. Most of Africa is in this color, as are
Afghanistan, Haiti, and parts of Southeast Asia (for
example, Cambodia and Laos). North Korea is also among
this group of countries. The countries in white are the
richest, those with annual income per-capita of $20,000 or
more. Here we find the usual suspects: North America,
western Europe, Australasia, and Japan.
Another interesting pattern can be discerned in the
Americas. Make a list of the nations in the Americas from
richest to poorest. You will find that at the top are the United
States and Canada, followed by Chile, Argentina, Brazil,
Mexico, and Uruguay, and maybe also Venezuela,
depending on the price of oil. After that you have Colombia,
the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Peru. At the bottom
there is another distinct, much poorer group, comprising
Bolivia, Guatemala, and Paraguay. Go back fifty years, and
you’ll find an identical ranking. One hundred years: same
thing. One hundred and fifty years: again the same. So it is
not just that the United States and Canada are richer than
Latin America; there is also a definite and persistent divide
between the rich and poor nations within Latin America.
A final interesting pattern is in the Middle East. There we
find oil-rich nations such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,
which have income levels close to those of our top thirty.
Yet if the oil price fell, they would quickly fall back down the
table. Middle Eastern countries with little or no oil, such as
Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, all cluster around a level of
income similar to that of Guatemala or Peru. Without oil,
Middle Eastern countries are also all poor, though, like
those in Central America and the Andes, not so poor as
those in sub-Saharan Africa.
While there is a lot of persistence in the patterns of
prosperity we see around us today, these patterns are not
unchanging or immutable. First, as we have already
emphasized, most of current world inequality emerged
since the late eighteenth century, following on the tails of the
Industrial Revolution. Not only were gaps in prosperity much
smaller as late as the middle of the eighteenth century, but
the rankings which have been so stable since then are not
the same when we go further back in history. In the
Americas, for example, the ranking we see for the last
hundred and fifty years was completely different five
hundred years ago. Second, many nations have
experienced several decades of rapid growth, such as
much of East Asia since the Second World War and, more
recently, China. Many of these subsequently saw that
growth go into reverse. Argentina, for example, grew
rapidly for five decades up until 1920, becoming one of the
richest countries in the world, but then started a long slide.
The Soviet Union is an even more noteworthy example,
growing rapidly between 1930 and 1970, but subsequently
experiencing a rapid collapse.
What explains these major differences in poverty and
prosperity and the patterns of growth? Why did Western
European nations and their colonial offshoots filled with
European settlers start growing in the nineteenth century,
scarcely looking back? What explains the persistent
ranking of inequality within the Americas? Why have subSaharan African and Middle Eastern nations failed to
achieve the type of economic growth seen in Western
Europe, while much of East Asia has experienced
breakneck rates of economic growth?
One might think that the fact that world inequality is so
huge and consequential and has such sharply drawn
patterns would mean that it would have a well-accepted
explanation. Not so. Most hypotheses that social scientists
have proposed for the origins of poverty and prosperity just
don’t work and fail to convincingly explain the lay of the
land.
THE GEOGRAPHY HYPOTHESIS
One widely accepted theory of the causes of world
inequality is the geography hypothesis, which claims that
the great divide between rich and poor countries is created
by geographical differences. Many poor countries, such as
those of Africa, Central America, and South Asia, are
between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Rich nations,
in contrast, tend to be in temperate latitudes. This
geographic concentration of poverty and prosperity gives a
superficial appeal to the geography hypothesis, which is
the starting point of the theories and views of many social
scientists and pundits alike. But this doesn’t make it any
less wrong.
As early as the late eighteenth century, the great French
political philosopher Montesquieu noted the geographic
concentration of prosperity and poverty, and proposed an
explanation for it. He argued that people in tropical climates
tended to be lazy and to lack inquisitiveness. As a
consequence, they didn’t work hard and were not
innovative, and this was the reason why they were poor.
Montesquieu also speculated that lazy people tended to be
ruled by despots, suggesting that a tropical location could
explain not just poverty but also some of the political
phenomena associated with economic failure, such as
dictatorship.
The theory that hot countries are intrinsically poor, though
contradicted by the recent rapid economic advance of
countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Botswana, is
still forcefully advocated by some, such as the economist
Jeffrey Sachs. The modern version of this view emphasizes
not the direct effects of climate on work effort or thought
processes, but two additional arguments: first, that tropical
diseases, particularly malaria, have very adverse
consequences for health and therefore labor productivity;
and second, that tropical soils do not allow for productive
agriculture. The conclusion, though, is the same: temperate
climates have a relative advantage over tropical and
semitropical areas.
World inequality, however, cannot be explained by
climate or diseases, or any version of the geography
hypothesis. Just think of Nogales. What separates the two
parts is not climate, geography, or disease environment,
but the U.S.-Mexico border.
If the geography hypothesis cannot explain differences
between the north and south of Nogales, or North and
South Korea, or those between East and West Germany
before the fall of the Berlin Wall, could it still be a useful
theory for explaining differences between North and South
America? Between Europe and Africa? Simply, no.
History illustrates that there is no simple or enduring
connection between climate or geography and economic
success. For instance, it is not true that the tropics have
always been poorer than temperate latitudes. As we saw in
the last chapter, at the time of the conquest of the Americas
by Columbus, the areas south of the Tropic of Cancer and
north of the Tropic of Capricorn, which today include
Mexico, Central America, Peru, and Bolivia, held the great
Aztec and Inca civilizations. These empires were politically
centralized and complex, built roads, and provided famine
relief. The Aztecs had both money and writing, and the
Incas, even though they lacked both these two key
technologies, recorded vast amounts of information on
knotted ropes called quipus. In sharp contrast, at the time of
the Aztecs and Incas, the north and south of the area
inhabited by the Aztecs and Incas, which today includes the
United States, Canada, Argentina, and Chile, were mostly
inhabited by Stone Age civilizations lacking these
technologies. The tropics in the Americas were thus much
richer than the temperate zones, suggesting that the
“obvious fact” of tropical poverty is neither obvious nor a
fact. Instead, the greater riches in the United States and
Canada represent a stark reversal of fortune relative to
what was there when the Europeans arrived.
This reversal clearly had nothing to do with geography
and, as we have already seen, something to do with the
way these areas were colonized. This reversal was not
confined to the Americas. People in South Asia, especially
the Indian subcontinent, and in China were more
prosperous than those in many other parts of Asia and
certainly more than the peoples inhabiting Australia and
New Zealand. This, too, was reversed, with South Korea,
Singapore, and Japan emerging as the richest nations in
Asia, and Australia and New Zealand surpassing almost all
of Asia in terms of prosperity. Even within sub-Saharan
Africa there was a similar reversal. More recently, before
the start of intense European contact with Africa, the
southern Africa region was the most sparsely settled and
the farthest from having developed states with any kind of
control over their territories. Yet South Africa is now one of
the most prosperous nations in sub-Saharan Africa. Further
back in history we again see much prosperity in the tropics;
some of the great premodern civilizations, such as Angkor
in modern Cambodia, Vijayanagara in southern India, and
Aksum in Ethiopia, flourished in the tropics, as did the
great Indus Valley civilizations of Mohenjo Daro and
Harappa in modern Pakistan. History thus leaves little
doubt that there is no simple connection between a tropical
location and economic success.
Tropical diseases obviously cause much suffering and
high rates of infant mortality in Africa, but they are not the
reason Africa is poor. Disease is largely a consequence of
poverty and of governments being unable or unwilling to
undertake the public health measures necessary to
eradicate them. England in the nineteenth century was also
a very unhealthy place, but the government gradually
invested in clean water, in the proper treatment of sewage
and effluent, and, eventually, in an effective health service.
Improved health and life expectancy were not the cause of
England’s economic success but one of the fruits of its
previous political and economic changes. The same is true
for Nogales, Arizona.
The other part of the geography hypothesis is that the
tropics are poor because tropical agriculture is intrinsically
unproductive. Tropical soils are thin and unable to maintain
nutrients, the argument goes, and emphasizes how quickly
these soils are eroded by torrential rains. There certainly is
some merit in this argument, but as we’ll show, the prime
determinant of why agricultural productivity—agricultural
output per acre—is so low in many poor countries,
particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, has little to do with soil
quality. Rather, it is a consequence of the ownership
structure of the land and the incentives that are created for
farmers by the governments and institutions under which
they live. We will also show that world inequality cannot be
explained by differences in agricultural productivity. The
great inequality of the modern world that emerged in the
nineteenth century was caused by the uneven
dissemination of industrial technologies and manufacturing
production. It was not caused by divergence in agricultural
performance.
Another influential version of the geography hypothesis is
advanced by the ecologist and evolutionary biologist Jared
Diamond. He argues that the origins of intercontinental
inequality at the start of the modern period, five hundred
years ago, rested in different historical endowments of
plant and animal species, which subsequently influenced
agricultural productivity. In some places, such as the Fertile
Crescent in the modern Middle East, there were a large
number of species that could be domesticated by humans.
Elsewhere, such as the Americas, there were not. Having
many species capable of being domesticated made it very
attractive for societies to make the transition from a huntergatherer to a farming lifestyle. As a consequence, farming
developed earlier in the Fertile Crescent than in the
Americas. Population density grew, allowing specialization
of labor, trade, urbanization, and political development.
Crucially, in places where farming dominated, technological
innovation took place much more rapidly than in other parts
of the world. Thus, according to Diamond, the differential
availability of animal and plant species created differential
intensities of farming, which led to different paths of
technological change and prosperity across different
continents.
Though Diamond’s thesis is a powerful approach to the
puzzle on which he focuses, it cannot be extended to
explain modern world inequality. For example, Diamond
argues that the Spanish were able to dominate the
civilizations of the Americas because of their longer history
of farming and consequent superior technology. But we
now need to explain why the Mexicans and Peruvians
inhabiting the former lands of the Aztecs and Incas are
poor. While having access to wheat, barley, and horses
might have made the Spanish richer than the Incas, the gap
in incomes between the two was not very large. The
average income of a Spaniard was probably less than
double that of a citizen of the Inca Empire. Diamond’s
thesis implies that once the Incas had been exposed to all
the species and resulting technologies that they had not
been able to develop themselves, they ought quickly to
have attained the living standards of the Spanish. Yet
nothing of the sort happened. On the contrary, in the
nineteenth and twentieth centuries, a much larger gap in
incomes between Spain and Peru emerged. Today the
average Spaniard is more than six times richer than the
average Peruvian. This gap in incomes is closely
connected to the uneven dissemination of modern industrial
technologies, but this has little to do either with the potential
for animal and plant domestication or with intrinsic
agricultural productivity differences between Spain and
Peru.
While Spain, albeit with a lag, adopted the technologies
of steam power, railroads, electricity, mechanization, and
factory production, Peru did not, or at best did so very
slowly and imperfectly. This technological gap persists
today and reproduces itself on a bigger scale as new
technologies, in particular those related to information
technology, fuel further growth in many developed and
some rapidly developing nations. Diamond’s thesis does
not tell us why these crucial technologies are not diffusing
and equalizing incomes across the world and does not
explain why the northern half of Nogales is so much richer
than its twin just to the south of the fence, even though both
were part of the same civilization five hundred years ago.
The story of Nogales highlights another major problem in
adapting Diamond’s thesis: as we have already seen,
whatever the drawbacks of the Inca and Aztec empires
were in 1532, Peru and Mexico were undoubtedly more
prosperous than those parts of the Americas that went on
to become the United States and Canada. North America
became more prosperous precisely because it
enthusiastically adopted the technologies and advances of
the Industrial Revolution. The population became educated
and railways spread out across the Great Plains in stark
contrast to what happened in South America. This cannot
be explained by pointing to differential geographic
endowments of North and South America, which, if
anything, favored South America.
Inequality in the modern world largely results from the
uneven dissemination and adoption of technologies, and
Diamond’s thesis does include important arguments about
this. For instance, he argues, following the historian William
McNeill, that the east–west orientation of Eurasia enabled
crops, animals, and innovations to spread from the Fertile
Crescent into Western Europe, while the north–south
orientation of the Americas accounts for why writing
systems, which were created in Mexico, did not spread to
the Andes or North America. Yet the orientation of
continents cannot provide an explanation for today’s world
inequality. Consider Africa. Though the Sahara Desert did
present a significant barrier to the movement of goods and
ideas from the north to sub-Saharan Africa, this was not
insurmountable. The Portuguese, and then other
Europeans, sailed around the coast and eliminated
differences in knowledge at a time when gaps in incomes
were very small compared with what they are today. Since
then, Africa has not caught up with Europe; on the contrary,
there is now a much larger income gap between most
African and European countries.
It should also be clear that Diamond’s argument, which is
about continental inequality, is not well equipped to explain
variation within continents—an essential part of modern
world inequality. For example, while the orientation of the
Eurasian landmass might explain how England managed to
benefit from the innovations of the Middle East without
having to reinvent them, it doesn’t explain why the Industrial
Revolution happened in England rather than, say, Moldova.
In addition, as Diamond himself points out, China and India
benefited greatly from very rich suites of animals and
plants, and from the orientation of Eurasia. But most of the
poor people of the world today are in those two countries.
In fact, the best way to see the scope of Diamond’s
thesis is in terms of his own explanatory variables. Map 4
shows data on the distribution of Sus scrofa, the ancestor
of the modern pig, and the aurochs, ancestor of the modern
cow. Both species were widely distributed throughout
Eurasia and even North Africa. Map 5 (this page) shows
the distribution of some of the wild ancestors of modern
domesticated crops, such as Oryza sativa, the ancestor of
Asian cultivated rice, and the ancestors of modern wheat
and barley. It demonstrates that the wild ancestor of rice
was distributed widely across south and southeast Asia,
while the ancestors of barley and wheat were distributed
along a long arc from the Levant, reaching through Iran and
into Afghanistan and the cluster of “stans” (Turkmenistan,
Tajikistan, and Krgyzistan). These ancestral species are
present in much of Eurasia. But their wide distribution
suggests that inequality within Eurasia cannot be explained
by a theory based on the incidence of the species.
The geography hypothesis is not only unhelpful for
explaining the origins of prosperity throughout history, and
mostly incorrect in its emphasis, but also unable to account
for the lay of the land we started this chapter with. One
might argue that any persistent pattern, such as the
hierarchy of incomes within the Americas or the sharp and
long-ranging differences between Europe and the Middle
East, can be explained by unchanging geography. But this
is not so. We have already seen that the patterns within the
Americas are highly unlikely to have been driven by
geographical factors. Before 1492 it was the civilizations in
the central valley of Mexico, Central America, and the
Andes that had superior technology and living standards to
North America or places such as Argentina and Chile.
While the geography stayed the same, the institutions
imposed by European colonists created a “reversal of
fortune.” Geography is also unlikely to explain the poverty of
the Middle East for similar reasons. After all, the Middle
East led the world in the Neolithic Revolution, and the first
towns developed in modern Iraq. Iron was first smelted in
Turkey, and as late as the Middle Ages the Middle East
was technologically dynamic. It was not the geography of
the Middle East that made the Neolithic Revolution flourish
in that part of the world, as we will see in chapter 5, and it
was, again, not geography that made the Middle East poor.
Instead, it was the expansion and consolidation of the
Ottoman Empire, and it is the institutional legacy of this
empire that keeps the Middle East poor today.
Finally, geographic factors are unhelpful for explaining
not only the differences we see across various parts of the
world today but also why many nations such as Japan or
China stagnate for long periods and then start a rapid
growth process. We need another, better theory.
THE CULTURE HYPOTHESIS
The second widely accepted theory, the culture hypothesis,
relates prosperity to culture. The culture hypothesis, just like
the geography hypothesis, has a distinguished lineage,
going back at least to the great German sociologist Max
Weber, who argued that the Protestant Reformation and
the Protestant ethic it spurred played a key role in
facilitating the rise of modern industrial society in Western
Europe. The culture hypothesis no longer relies solely on
religion, but stresses other types of beliefs, values, and
ethics as well.
Though it is not politically correct to articulate in public,
many people still maintain that Africans are poor because
they lack a good work ethic, still believe in witchcraft and
magic, or resist new Western technologies. Many also
believe that Latin America will never be rich because its
people are intrinsically profligate and impecunious, and
because they suffer from some “Iberian” or “mañana”
culture. Of course, many once believed that the Chinese
culture and Confucian values were inimical to economic
growth, though now the importance of the Chinese work
ethic as the engine of growth in China, Hong Kong, and
Singapore is trumpeted.
Is the culture hypothesis useful for understanding world
inequality? Yes and no. Yes, in the sense that social norms,
which are related to culture, matter and can be hard to
change, and they also sometimes support institutional
differences, this book’s explanation for world inequality. But
mostly no, because those aspects of culture often
emphasized—religion, national ethics, African or Latin
values—are just not important for understanding how we
got here and why the inequalities in the world persist. Other
aspects, such as the extent to which people trust each other
or are able to cooperate, are important but they are mostly
an outcome of institutions, not an independent cause.
Let us go back to Nogales. As we noted earlier, many
aspects of culture are the same north and south of the
fence. Nevertheless, there may be some marked
differences in practices, norms, and values, though these
are not causes but outcomes of the two places’ divergent
development paths. For example, in surveys Mexicans
typically say they trust other people less than the citizens of
the United States say they trust others. But it is not a
surprise that Mexicans lack trust when their government
cannot eliminate drug cartels or provide a functioning
unbiased legal system. The same is true with North and
South Korea, as we discuss in the next chapter. The South
is one of the richest countries in the world, while the North
grapples with periodic famine and abject poverty. While
“culture” is very different between the South and the North
today, it played no role in causing the diverging economic
fortunes of these two half nations. The Korean peninsula
has a long period of common history. Before the Korean
War and the division at the 38th parallel, it had an
unprecedented homogeneity in terms of language,
ethnicity, and culture. Just as in Nogales, what matters is
the border. To the north is a different regime, imposing
different institutions, creating different incentives. Any
difference in culture between south and north of the border
cutting through the two parts of Nogales or the two parts of
Korea is thus not a cause of the differences in prosperity
but, rather, a consequence.
What about Africa and African culture? Historically, subSaharan Africa was poorer than most other parts of the
world, and its ancient civilizations did not develop the
wheel, writing (with the exception of Ethiopia and Somalia),
or the plow. Though these technologies were not widely
used until the advent of formal European colonization in the
late nineteenth and early twentieth century, African
societies knew about them much earlier. Europeans began
sailing around the west coast in the late fifteenth century,
and Asians were continually sailing to East Africa from
much earlier times.
We can understand why these technologies were not
adopted from the history of the Kingdom of Kongo at the
mouth of the Congo River, which has given its name to the
modern Democratic Republic of Congo. Map 6 shows
where the Kongo was along with another important central
African state, the Kuba Kingdom, which we discuss later in
the book.
Kongo came into intense contact with the Portuguese
after it was first visited by the mariner Diogo Cão in 1483.
At the time, Kongo was a highly centralized polity by African
standards, whose capital, Mbanza, had a population of
sixty thousand, which made it about the same size as the
Portuguese capital of Lisbon and larger than London, which
had a population of about fifty thousand in 1500. The king
of Kongo, Nzinga a Nkuwu, converted to Catholicism and
changed his name to João I. Later Mbanza’s name was
changed to São Salvador. Thanks to the Portuguese, the
Kongolese learned about the wheel and the plow, and the
Portuguese even encouraged their adoption with
agricultural missions in 1491 and 1512. But all these
initiatives failed. Still, the Kongolese were far from averse
to modern technologies in general. They were very quick to
adopt one venerable Western innovation: the gun. They
used this new and powerful tool to respond to market
incentives: to capture and export slaves. There is no sign
here that African values or culture prevented the adoption of
new technologies and practices. As their contacts with
Europeans deepened, the Kongolese adopted other
Western practices: literacy, dress styles, and house
designs. In the nineteenth century, many African societies
also took advantage of the rising economic opportunities
created by the Industrial Revolution by changing their
production patterns. In West Africa there was rapid
economic development based on the export of palm oil and
ground nuts; throughout southern Africa, Africans
developed exports to the rapidly expanding industrial and
mining areas of the Rand in South Africa. Yet these
promising economic experiments were obliterated not by
African culture or the inability of ordinary Africans to act in
their own self-interest, but first by European colonialism and
then by postindependence African governments.
The real reason that the Kongolese did not adopt
superior technology was because they lacked any
incentives to do so. They faced a high risk of all their output
being expropriated and taxed by the all-powerful king,
whether or not he had converted to Catholicism. In fact, it
wasn’t only their property that was insecure. Their continued
existence was held by a thread. Many of them were
captured and sold as slaves—hardly the environment to
encourage investment to increase long-term productivity.
Neither did the king have incentives to adopt the plow on a
large scale or to make increasing agricultural productivity
his main priority; exporting slaves was so much more
profitable.
It might be true today that Africans trust each other less
than people in other parts of the world. But this is an
outcome of a long history of institutions which have
undermined human and property rights in Africa. The
potential to be captured and sold as a slave no doubt
influenced the extent to which Africans trusted others
historically.
What about Max Weber’s Protestant ethic? Though it
may be true that predominantly Protestant countries, such
as the Netherlands and England, were the first economic
successes of the modern era, there is little relationship
between religion and economic success. France, a
predominantly Catholic country, quickly mimicked the
economic performance of the Dutch and English in the
nineteenth century, and Italy is as prosperous as any of
these nations today. Looking farther east, you’ll see that
none of the economic successes of East Asia have
anything to do with any form of Christian religion, so there is
not much support for a special relationship between
Protestantism and economic success there, either.
Let’s turn to a favorite area for the enthusiasts of the
culture hypothesis: the Middle East. Middle Eastern
countries are primarily Islamic, and the non–oil producers
among them are very poor, as we have already noted. Oil
producers are richer, but this windfall of wealth has done
little to create diversified modern economies in Saudi
Arabia or Kuwait. Don’t these facts show convincingly that
religion matters? Though plausible, this argument is not
right, either. Yes, countries such as Syria and Egypt are
poor, and their populations are primarily Muslim. But these
countries also systemically differ in other ways that are far
more important for prosperity. For one, they were all
provinces of the Ottoman Empire, which heavily, and
adversely, shaped the way they developed. After Ottoman
rule collapsed, the Middle East was absorbed into the
English and French colonial empires, which, again, stunted
their possibilities. After independence, they followed much
of the former colonial world by developing hierarchical,
authoritarian political regimes with few of the political and
economic institutions that, we will argue, are crucial for
generating economic success. This development path was
forged largely by the history of Ottoman and European rule.
The relationship between the Islamic religion and poverty in
the Middle East is largely spurious.
The role of these historical events, rather than cultural
factors, in shaping the Middle East’s economic trajectory is
also seen in the fact that the parts of the Middle East that
temporarily broke away from the hold of the Ottoman
Empire and the European powers, such as Egypt between
1805 and 1848 under Muhammad Ali, could embark on a
path of rapid economic change. Muhammad Ali usurped
power following the withdrawal of the French forces that
had occupied Egypt under Napoleon Bonaparte. Exploiting
the weakness of the Ottoman hold over the Egyptian
territory at the time, he was able to found his own dynasty,
which would, in one form or another, rule until the Egyptian
Revolution under Nasser in 1952. Muhammad Ali’s
reforms, though coercive, did bring growth to Egypt as the
state bureaucracy, the army, and the tax system were
modernized and there was growth in agriculture and
industry. Nevertheless, this process of modernization and
growth came to an end after Ali’s death, as Egypt fell under
European influence.
But perhaps this is the wrong way to think about culture.
Maybe the cultural factors that matter are not tied to religion
but rather to particular “national cultures.” Perhaps it is the
influence of English culture that is important and explains
why countries such as the United States, Canada, and
Australia are so prosperous? Though this idea sounds
initially appealing, it doesn’t work, either. Yes, Canada and
the United States were English colonies, but so were
Sierra Leone and Nigeria. The variation in prosperity within
former English colonies is as great as that in the entire
world. The English legacy is not the reason for the success
of North America.
There is yet one more version of the culture hypothesis:
perhaps it is not English versus non-English that matters
but, rather, European versus non-European. Could it be that
Europeans are superior somehow because of their work
ethic, outlook on life, Judeo-Christian values, or Roman
heritage? It is true that Western Europe and North America,
filled primarily by people of European descent, are the
most prosperous parts of the world. Perhaps it is the
superior European cultural legacy that is at the root of
prosperity—and the last refuge of the culture hypothesis.
Alas, this version of the culture hypothesis has as little
explanatory potential as the others. A greater proportion of
the population of Argentina and Uruguay, compared with
the population of Canada and the United States, is of
European descent, but Argentina’s and Uruguay’s
economic performance leaves much to be desired. Japan
and Singapore never had more than a sprinkling of
inhabitants of European descent, yet they are as
prosperous as many parts of Western Europe.
China, despite many imperfections in its economic and
political system, has been the most rapidly growing nation
of the past three decades. Chinese poverty until Mao
Zedong’s death had nothing to do with Chinese culture; it
was due to the disastrous way Mao organized the economy
and conducted politics. In the 1950s, he promoted the
Great Leap Forward, a drastic industrialization policy that
led to mass starvation and famine. In the 1960s, he
propagated the Cultural Revolution, which led to the mass
persecution of intellectuals and educated people—anyone
whose party loyalty might be doubted. This again led to
terror and a huge waste of the society’s talent and
resources. In the same way, current Chinese growth has
nothing to do with Chinese values or changes in Chinese
culture; it results from a process of economic
transformation unleashed by the reforms implemented by
Deng Xiaoping and his allies, who, after Mao Zedong’s
death, gradually abandoned socialist economic policies
and institutions, first in agriculture and then in industry.
Just like the geography hypothesis, the culture
hypothesis is also unhelpful for explaining other aspects of
the lay of the land around us today. There are of course
differences in beliefs, cultural attitudes, and values between
the United States and Latin America, but just like those that
exist between Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, or
those between South and North Korea, these differences
are a consequence of the two places’ different institutions
and institutional histories. Cultural factors that emphasize
how “Hispanic” or “Latin” culture molded the Spanish
Empire can’t explain the differences within Latin America—
for example, why Argentina and Chile are more prosperous
than Peru and Bolivia. Other types of cultural arguments—
for instance, those that stress contemporary indigenous
culture—fare equally badly. Argentina and Chile have few
indigenous people compared with Peru and Bolivia.
Though this is true, indigenous culture as an explanation
does not work, either. Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru have
similar income levels, but Colombia has very few
indigenous people today, while Ecuador and Peru have
many. Finally, cultural attitudes, which are in general slow to
change, are unlikely to account by themselves for the
growth miracles in East Asia and China. Though institutions
are persistent, too, in certain circumstances they do
change rapidly, as we’ll see.
THE IGNORANCE HYPOTHESIS
The final popular theory for why some nations are poor and
some are rich is the ignorance hypothesis, which asserts
that world inequality exists because we or our rulers do not
know how to make poor countries rich. This idea is the one
held by most economists, who take their cue from the
famous definition proposed by the English economist
Lionel Robbins in 1935 that “economics is a science which
studies human behavior as a relationship between ends
and scarce means which have alternative uses.”
It is then a small step to conclude that the science of
economics should focus on the best use of scarce means
to satisfy social ends. Indeed, the most famous theoretical
result in economics, the so-called First Welfare Theorem,
identifies the circumstances under which the allocation of
resources in a “market economy” is socially desirable from
an economic point of view. A market economy is an
abstraction that is meant to capture a situation in which all
individuals and firms can freely produce, buy, and sell any
products or services that they wish. When these
circumstances are not present there is a “market failure.”
Such failures provide the basis for a theory of world
inequality, since the more that market failures go
unaddressed, the poorer a country is likely to be. The
ignorance hypothesis maintains that poor countries are
poor because they have a lot of market failures and
because economists and policymakers do not know how to
get rid of them and have heeded the wrong advice in the
past. Rich countries are rich because they have figured out
better policies and have successfully eliminated these
failures.
Could the ignorance hypothesis explain world inequality?
Could it be that African countries are poorer than the rest of
the world because their leaders tend to have the same
mistaken views of how to run their countries, leading to the
poverty there, while Western European leaders are better
informed or better advised, which explains their relative
success? While there are famous examples of leaders
adopting disastrous policies because they were mistaken
about those policies’ consequences, ignorance can explain
at best a small part of world inequality.
On the face of it, the sustained economic decline that
soon set in in Ghana after independence from Britain was
caused by ignorance. The British economist Tony Killick,
then working as an adviser for the government of Kwame
Nkrumah, recorded many of the problems in great detail.
Nkrumah’s policies focused on developing state industry,
which turned out to be very inefficient. Killick recalled:
The footwear factory … that would have
linked the meat factory in the North through
transportation of the hides to the South (for a
distance of over 500 miles) to a tannery (now
abandoned); the leather was to have been
backhauled to the footwear factory in
Kumasi, in the center of the country and
about 200 miles north of the tannery. Since
the major footwear market is in the Accra
metropolitan area, the shoes would then have
to be transported an additional 200 miles
back to the South.
Killick somewhat understatedly remarks that this was an
enterprise “whose viability was undermined by poor siting.”
The footwear factory was one of many such projects, joined
by the mango canning plant situated in a part of Ghana
which did not grow mangos and whose output was to be
more than the entire world demand for the product. This
endless stream of economically irrational developments
was not caused by the fact that Nkrumah or his advisers
were badly informed or ignorant of the right economic
policies. They had people like Killick and had even been
advised by Nobel laureate Sir Arthur Lewis, who knew the
policies were not good. What drove the form the economic
policies took was the fact that Nkrumah needed to use
them to buy political support and sustain his undemocratic
regime.
Neither Ghana’s disappointing performance after
independence nor the countless other cases of apparent
economic mismanagement can simply be blamed on
ignorance. After all, if ignorance were the problem, wellmeaning leaders would quickly learn what types of policies
increased their citizens’ incomes and welfare, and would
gravitate toward those policies.
Consider the divergent paths of the United States and
Mexico. Blaming this disparity on the ignorance of the
leaders of the two nations is, at best, highly implausible. It
wasn’t differences in knowledge or intentions between John
Smith and Cortés that laid the seeds of divergence during
the colonial period, and it wasn’t differences in knowledge
between later U.S. presidents, such as Teddy Roosevelt or
Woodrow Wilson, and Porfirio Díaz that made Mexico
choose economic institutions that enriched elites at the
expense of the rest of society at the end of the nineteenth
and beginning of the twentieth centuries while Roosevelt
and Wilson did the opposite. Rather, it was the differences
in the institutional constraints the countries’ presidents and
elites were facing. Similarly, leaders of African nations that
have languished over the last half century under insecure
property rights and economic institutions, impoverishing
much of their populations, did not allow this to happen
because they thought it was good economics; they did so
because they could get away with it and enrich themselves
at the expense of the rest, or because they thought it was
good politics, a way of keeping themselves in power by
buying the support of crucial groups or elites.
The experience of Ghana’s prime minister in 1971, Kofi
Busia, illustrates how misleading the ignorance hypothesis
can be. Busia faced a dangerous economic crisis. After
coming to power in 1969, he, like Nkrumah before him,
pursued unsustainable expansionary economic policies
and maintained various price controls through marketing
boards and an overvalued exchange rate. Though Busia
had been an opponent of Nkrumah, and led a democratic
government, he faced many of the same political
constraints. As with Nkrumah, his economic policies were
adopted not because he was “ignorant” and believed that
these policies were good economics or an ideal way to
develop the country. The policies were chosen because
they were good politics, enabling Busia to transfer
resources to politically powerful groups, for example in
urban areas, who needed to be kept contented. Price
controls squeezed agriculture, delivering cheap food to the
urban constituencies and generating revenues to finance
government spending. But these controls were
unsustainable. Ghana was soon suffering from a series of
balance-of-payment crises and foreign exchange
shortages. Faced with these dilemmas, on December 27,
1971, Busia signed an agreement with the International
Monetary Fund that included a massive devaluation of the
currency.
The IMF, the World Bank, and the entire international
community put pressure on Busia to implement the reforms
contained in the agreement. Though the international
institutions were blissfully unaware, Busia knew he was
taking a huge political gamble. The immediate
consequence of the currency’s devaluation was rioting and
discontent in Accra, Ghana’s capital, that mounted
uncontrollably until Busia was overthrown by the military, led
by Lieutenant Colonel Acheampong, who immediately
reversed the devaluation.
The ignorance hypothesis differs from the geography and
culture hypotheses in that it comes readily with a
suggestion about how to “solve” the problem of poverty: if
ignorance got us here, enlightened and informed rulers and
policymakers can get us out and we should be able to
“engineer” prosperity around the world by providing the
right advice and by convincing politicians of what is good
economics. Yet Busia’s experience underscores the fact
that the main obstacle to the adoption of policies that would
reduce market failures and encourage economic growth is
not the ignorance of politicians but the incentives and
constraints they face from the political and economic
institutions in their societies.
Although the ignorance hypothesis still rules supreme
among most economists and in Western policymaking
circles—which, almost to the exclusion of anything else,
focus on how to engineer prosperity—it is just another
hypothesis that doesn’t work. It explains neither the origins
of prosperity around the world nor the lay of the land around
us—for example, why some nations, such as Mexico and
Peru, but not the United States or England, adopted
institutions and policies that would impoverish the majority
of their citizens, or why almost all sub-Saharan Africa and
most of Central America are so much poorer than Western
Europe or East Asia.
When nations break out of institutional patterns
condemning them to poverty and manage to embark on a
path to economic growth, this is not because their ignorant
leaders suddenly have become better informed or less selfinterested or because they’ve received advice from better
economists. China, for example, is one of the countries that
made the switch from economic policies that caused
poverty and the starvation of millions to those encouraging
economic growth. But, as we will discuss in greater detail
later, this did not happen because the Chinese Communist
Party finally understood that the collective ownership of
agricultural land and industry created terrible economic
incentives. Instead, Deng Xiaoping and his allies, who were
no less self-interested than their rivals but who had different
interests and political objectives, defeated their powerful
opponents in the Communist Party and masterminded a
political revolution of sorts, radically changing the
leadership and direction of the party. Their economic
reforms, which created market incentives in agriculture and
then subsequently in industry, followed from this political
revolution. It was politics that determined the switch from
communism and toward market incentives in China, not
better advice or a better understanding of how the economy
worked.
WE WILL ARGUE that to understand world inequality we have
to understand why some societies are organized in very
inefficient and socially undesirable ways. Nations
sometimes do manage to adopt efficient institutions and
achieve prosperity, but alas, these are the rare cases. Most
economists and policymakers have focused on “getting it
right,” while what is really needed is an explanation for why
poor nations “get it wrong.” Getting it wrong is mostly not
about ignorance or culture. As we will show, poor countries
are poor because those who have power make choices
that create poverty. They get it wrong not by mistake or
ignorance but on purpose. To understand this, you have to
go beyond economics and expert advice on the best thing
to do and, instead, study how decisions actually get made,
who gets to make them, and why those people decide to
do what they do. This is the study of politics and political
processes. Traditionally economics has ignored politics,
but understanding politics is crucial for explaining world
inequality. As the economist Abba Lerner noted in the
1970s, “Economics has gained the title Queen of the
Social Sciences by choosing solved political problems as
its domain.”
We will argue that achieving prosperity depends on
solving some basic political problems. It is precisely
because economics has assumed that political problems
are solved that it has not been able to come up with a
convincing explanation for world inequality. Explaining
world inequality still needs economics to understand how
different types of policies and social arrangements affect
economic incentives and behavior. But it also needs
politics.
3.
THE MAKING OF PROSPERITY AND POVERTY
THE ECONOMICS OF THE 38TH PARALLEL
IN THE SUMMER OF 1945, as the Second World War was
drawing to a close, the Japanese colony in Korea began to
collapse. Within a month of Japan’s August 15
unconditional surrender, Korea was divided at the 38th
parallel into two spheres of influence. The South was
administered by the United States. The North, by Russia.
The uneasy peace of the cold war was shattered in June
1950 when the North Korean army invaded the South.
Though initially the North Koreans made large inroads,
capturing the capital city, Seoul, by the autumn, they were in
full retreat. It was then that Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn and his
brother were separated. Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn managed to
hide and avoid being drafted into the North Korean army.
He stayed in the South and worked as a pharmacist. His
brother, a doctor working in Seoul treating wounded
soldiers from the South Korean army, was taken north as
the North Korean army retreated. Dragged apart in 1950,
they met again in 2000 in Seoul for the first time in fifty
years, after the two governments finally agreed to initiate a
limited program of family reunification.
As a doctor, Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn’s brother had ended up
working for the air force, a good job in a military
dictatorship. But even those with privileges in North Korea
don’t do that well. When the brothers met, Hwang PyŏngWŏn asked about how life was north of the 38th parallel. He
had a car, but his brother didn’t. “Do you have a
telephone?” he asked his brother. “No,” said his brother.
“My daughter, who works at the Foreign Ministry, has a
phone, but if you don’t know the code you can’t call.” Hwang
Pyŏng-Wŏn recalled how all the people from the North at
the reunion were asking for money, so he offered some to
his brother. But his brother said, “If I go back with money the
government will say, ‘Give that money to us,’ so keep it.”
Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn noticed his brother’s coat was
threadbare: “Take off that coat and leave it, and when you
go back wear this one,” he suggested. “I can’t do that,” his
brother replied. “This is just borrowed from the government
to come here.” Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn recalled how when they
parted, his brother was ill at ease and always nervous as
though someone were listening. He was poorer than
Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn imagined. His brother said he lived
well, but Hwang Pyŏng-Wŏn thought he looked awful and
was thin as a rake.
The people of South Korea have living standards similar
to those of Portugal and Spain. To the north, in the socalled Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or North
Korea, living standards are akin to those of a sub-Saharan
African country, about one-tenth of average living standards
in South Korea. The health of North Koreans is in an even
worse state; the average North Korean can expect to live
ten years less than his cousins south of the 38th parallel.
Map 7 illustrates in a dramatic way the economic gap
between the Koreas. It plots data on the intensity of light at
night from satellite images. North Korea is almost
completely dark due to lack of electricity; South Korea is
blazing with light.
These striking differences are not ancient. In fact, they
did not exist prior to the end of the Second World War. But
after 1945, the different governments in the North and the
South adopted very different ways of organizing their
economies. South Korea was led, and its early economic
and political institutions were shaped, by the Harvard- and
Princeton-educated, staunchly anticommunist Syngman
Rhee, with significant support from the United States. Rhee
was elected president in 1948. Forged in the midst of the
Korean War and against the threat of communism
spreading to the south of the 38th parallel, South Korea
was no democracy. Both Rhee and his equally famous
successor, General Park Chung-Hee, secured their places
in history as authoritarian presidents. But both governed a
market economy where private property was recognized,
and after 1961, Park effectively threw the weight of the
state behind rapid economic growth, channeling credit and
subsidies to firms that were successful.
The situation north of the 38th parallel was different. Kim
Il-Sung, a leader of anti-Japanese communist partisans
during the Second World War, established himself as
dictator by 1947 and, with the help of the Soviet Union,
introduced a rigid form of centrally planned economy as
part of the so-called Juche system. Private property was
outlawed, and markets were banned. Freedoms were
curtailed not only in the marketplace, but in every sphere of
North Koreans’ lives—except for those who happened to
be part of the very small ruling elite around Kim Il-Sung and,
later, his son and successor Kim Jong-Il.
It should not surprise us that the economic fortunes of
South and North Korea diverged sharply. Kim Il-Sung’s
command economy and the Juche system soon proved to
be a disaster. Detailed statistics are not available from
North Korea, which is a secretive state, to say the least.
Nonetheless, available evidence confirms what we know
from the all-too-often recurring famines: not only did
industrial production fail to take off, but North Korea in fact
experienced a collapse in agricultural productivity. Lack of
private property meant that few people had incentives to
invest or to exert effort to increase or even maintain
productivity. The stifling, repressive regime was inimical to
innovation and the adoption of new technologies. But Kim
Il-Sung, Kim Jong-Il, and their cronies had no intention of
reforming the system, or introducing private property,
markets, private contracts, or changing economic and
political institutions. North Korea continues to stagnate
economically.
Meanwhile, in the South, economic institutions
encouraged investment and trade. South Korean politicians
invested in education, achieving high rates of literacy and
schooling. South Korean companies were quick to take
advantage of the relatively educated population, the
policies encouraging investment and industrialization,
exports, and the transfer of technology. South Korea quickly
became one of East Asia’s “Miracle Economies,” one of
the most rapidly growing nations in the world.
By the late 1990s, in just about half a century, South
Korean growth and North Korean stagnation led to a tenfold
gap between the two halves of this once-united country—
imagine what a difference a couple of centuries could
make. The economic disaster of North Korea, which led to
the starvation of millions, when placed against the South
Korean economic success, is striking: neither culture nor
geography nor ignorance can explain the divergent paths of
North and South Korea. We have to look at institutions for
an answer.
EXTRACTIVE AND INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC INSTITUTIONS
Countries differ in their economic success because of their
different institutions, the rules influencing how the economy
works, and the incentives that motivate people. Imagine
teenagers in North and South Korea and what they expect
from life. Those in the North grow up in poverty, without
entrepreneurial initiative, creativity, or adequate education
to prepare them for skilled work. Much of the education they
receive at school is pure propaganda, meant to shore up
the legitimacy of the regime; there are few books, let alone
computers. After finishing school, everyone has to go into
the army for ten years. These teenagers know that they will
not be able to own property, start a business, or become
more prosperous even if many people engage illegally in
private economic activities to make a living. They also
know that they will not have legal access to markets where
they can use their skills or their earnings to purchase the
goods they need and desire. They are even unsure about
what kind of human rights they will have.
Those in the South obtain a good education, and face
incentives that encourage them to exert effort and excel in
their chosen vocation. South Korea is a market economy,
built on private property. South Korean teenagers know
that, if successful as entrepreneurs or workers, they can
one day enjoy the fruits of their investments and efforts; they
can improve their standard of living and buy cars, houses,
and health care.
In the South the state supports economic activity. So it is
possible for entrepreneurs to borrow money from banks
and financial markets, for foreign companies to enter into
partnerships with South Korean firms, for individuals to take
up mortgages to buy houses. In the South, by and large, you
are free to open any business you like. In the North, you are
not. In the South, you can hire workers, sell your products or
services, and spend your money in the marketplace in
whichever way you want. In the North, there are only black
markets. These different rules are the institutions under
which North and South Koreans live.
Inclusive economic institutions, such as those in South
Korea or in the United States, are those that allow and
encourage participation by the great mass of people in
economic activities that make best use of their talents and
skills and that enable individuals to make the choices they
wish. To be inclusive, economic institutions must feature
secure private property, an unbiased system of law, and a
provision of public services that provides a level playing
field in which people can exchange and contract; it also
must permit the entry of new businesses and allow people
to choose their careers.
THE CONTRAST OF South and North Korea, and of the United
States and Latin America, illustrates a general principle.
Inclusive economic institutions foster economic activity,
productivity growth, and economic prosperity. Secure
private property rights are central, since only those with
such rights will be willing to invest and increase productivity.
A businessman who expects his output to be stolen,
expropriated, or entirely taxed away will have little incentive
to work, let alone any incentive to undertake investments
and innovations. But such rights must exist for the majority
of people in society.
In 1680 the English government conducted a census of
the population of its West Indian colony of Barbados. The
census revealed that of the total population on the island of
around 60,000, almost 39,000 were African slaves who
were the property of the remaining one-third of the
population. Indeed, they were mostly the property of the
largest 175 sugar planters, who also owned most of the
land. These large planters had secure and well-enforced
property rights over their land and even over their slaves. If
one planter wanted to sell slaves to another, he could do so
and expect a court to enforce such a sale or any other
contract he wrote. Why? Of the forty judges and justices of
the peace on the island, twenty-nine of them were large
planters. Also, the eight most senior military officials were
all large planters. Despite well-defined, secure, and
enforced property rights and contracts for the island’s elite,
Barbados did not have inclusive economic institutions,
since two-thirds of the population were slaves with no
access to education or economic opportunities, and no
ability or incentive to use their talents or skills. Inclusive
economic institutions require secure property rights and
economic opportunities not just for the elite but for a broad
cross-section of society.
Secure property rights, the law, public services, and the
freedom to contract and exchange all rely on the state, the
institution with the coercive capacity to impose order,
prevent theft and fraud, and enforce contracts between
private parties. To function well, society also needs other
public services: roads and a transport network so that
goods can be transported; a public infrastructure so that
economic activity can flourish; and some type of basic
regulation to prevent fraud and malfeasance. Though many
of these public services can be provided by markets and
private citizens, the degree of coordination necessary to do
so on a large scale often eludes all but a central authority.
The state is thus inexorably intertwined with economic
institutions, as the enforcer of law and order, private
property, and contracts, and often as a key provider of
public services. Inclusive economic institutions need and
use the state.
The economic institutions of North Korea or of colonial
Latin America—the mita, encomienda, or repartimiento
described earlier—do not have these properties. Private
property is nonexistent in North Korea. In colonial Latin
America there was private property for Spaniards, but the
property of the indigenous peoples was highly insecure. In
neither type of society was the vast mass of people able to
make the economic decisions they wanted to; they were
subject to mass coercion. In neither type of society was the
power of the state used to provide key public services that
promoted prosperity. In North Korea, the state built an
education system to inculcate propaganda, but was unable
to prevent famine. In colonial Latin America, the state
focused on coercing indigenous peoples. In neither type of
society was there a level playing field or an unbiased legal
system. In North Korea, the legal system is an arm of the
ruling Communist Party, and in Latin America it was a tool
of discrimination against the mass of people. We call such
institutions, which have opposite properties to those we call
inclusive, extractive economic institutions—extractive
because such institutions are designed to extract incomes
and wealth from one subset of society to benefit a different
subset.
ENGINES OF PROSPERITY
Inclusive economic institutions create inclusive markets,
which not only give people freedom to pursue the vocations
in life that best suit their talents but also provide a level
playing field that gives them the opportunity to do so. Those
who have good ideas will be able to start businesses,
workers will tend to go to activities where their productivity
is greater, and less efficient firms can be replaced by more
efficient ones. Contrast how people choose their
occupations under inclusive markets to colonial Peru and
Bolivia, where under the mita, many were forced to work in
silver and mercury mines, regardless of their skills or
whether they wanted to. Inclusive markets are not just free
markets. Barbados in the seventeenth century also had
markets. But in the same way that it lacked property rights
for all but the narrow planter elite, its markets were far from
inclusive; markets in slaves were in fact one part of the
economic institutions systematically coercing the majority
of the population and robbing them of the ability to choose
their occupations and how they should utilize their talents.
Inclusive economic institutions also pave the way for two
other engines of prosperity: technology and education.
Sustained economic growth is almost always accompanied
by technological improvements that enable people (labor),
land, and existing capital (buildings, existing machines, and
so on) to become more productive. Think of our greatgreat-grandparents, just over a century ago, who did not
have access to planes or automobiles or most of the drugs
and health care we now take for granted, not to mention
indoor plumbing, air-conditioning, shopping malls, radio, or
motion pictures; let alone information technology, robotics,
or computer-controlled machinery. And going back a few
more generations, the technological know-how and living
standards were even more backward, so much so that we
would find it hard to imagine how most people struggled
through life. These improvements follow from science and
from entrepreneurs such as Thomas Edison, who applied
science to create profitable businesses. This process of
innovation is made possible by economic institutions that
encourage private property, uphold contracts, create a level
playing field, and encourage and allow the entry of new
businesses that can bring new technologies to life. It should
therefore be no surprise that it was U.S. society, not Mexico
or Peru, that produced Thomas Edison, and that it was
South Korea, not North Korea, that today produces
technologically innovative companies such as Samsung
and Hyundai.
Intimately linked to technology are the education, skills,
competencies, and know-how of the workforce, acquired in
schools, at home, and on the job. We are so much more
productive than a century ago not just because of better
technology embodied in machines but also because of the
greater know-how that workers possess. All the technology
in the world would be of little use without workers who knew
how to operate it. But there is more to skills and
competencies than just the ability to run machines. It is the
education and skills of the workforce that generate the
scientific knowledge upon which our progress is built and
that enable the adaptation and adoption of these
technologies in diverse lines of business. Though we saw
i n chapter 1 that many of the innovators of the Industrial
Revolution and afterward, like Thomas Edison, were not
highly educated, these innovations were much simpler than
modern technology. Today technological change requires
education both for the innovator and the worker. And here
we see the importance of economic institutions that create
a level playing field. The United States could produce, or
attract from foreign lands, the likes of Bill Gates, Steve
Jobs, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, and Jeff Bezos, and the
hundreds of scientists who made fundamental discoveries
in information technology, nuclear power, biotech, and other
fields upon which these entrepreneurs built their
businesses. The supply of talent was there to be harnessed
because most teenagers in the United States have access
to as much schooling as they wish or are capable of
attaining. Now imagine a different society, for example the
Congo or Haiti, where a large fraction of the population has
no means of attending school, or where, if they manage to
go to school, the quality of teaching is lamentable, where
teachers do not show up for work, and even if they do, there
may not be any books.
The low education level of poor countries is caused by
economic institutions that fail to create incentives for
parents to educate their children and by political institutions
that fail to induce the government to build, finance, and
support schools and the wishes of parents and children.
The price these nations pay for low education of their
population and lack of inclusive markets is high. They fail to
mobilize their nascent talent. They have many potential Bill
Gateses and perhaps one or two Albert Einsteins who are
now working as poor, uneducated farmers, being coerced
to do what they don’t want to do or being drafted into the
army, because they never had the opportunity to realize
their vocation in life.
The ability of economic institutions to harness the
potential of inclusive markets, encourage technological
innovation, invest in people, and mobilize the talents and
skills of a large number of individuals is critical for
economic growth. Explaining why so many economic
institutions fail to meet these simple objectives is the
central theme of this book.
EXTRACTIVE AND INCLUSIVE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
All economic institutions are created by society. Those of
North Korea, for example, were forced on its citizens by the
communists who took over the country in the 1940s, while
those of colonial Latin America were imposed by Spanish
conquistadors. South Korea ended up with very different
economic institutions than the North because different
people with different interests and objectives made the
decisions about how to structure society. In other words,
South Korea had different politics.
Politics is the process by which a society chooses the
rules that will govern it. Politics surrounds institutions for the
simple reason that while inclusive institutions may be good
for the economic prosperity of a nation, some people or
groups, such as the elite of the Communist Party of North
Korea or the sugar planters of colonial Barbados, will be
much better off by setting up institutions that are extractive.
When there is conflict over institutions, what happens
depends on which people or group wins out in the game of
politics—who can get more support, obtain additional
resources, and form more effective alliances. In short, who
wins depends on the distribution of political power in
society.
The political institutions of a society are a key
determinant of the outcome of this game. They are the rules
that govern incentives in politics. They determine how the
government is chosen and which part of the government
has the right to do what. Political institutions determine who
has power in society and to what ends that power can be
used. If the distribution of power is narrow and
unconstrained, then the political institutions are absolutist,
as exemplified by the absolutist monarchies reigning
throughout the world during much of history. Under
absolutist political institutions such as those in North Korea
and colonial Latin America, those who can wield this power
will be able to set up economic institutions to enrich
themselves and augment their power at the expense of
society. In contrast, political institutions that distribute
power broadly in society and subject it to constraints are
pluralistic. Instead of being vested in a single individual or a
narrow group, political power rests with a broad coalition or
a plurality of groups.
There is obviously a close connection between pluralism
and inclusive economic institutions. But the key to
understanding why South Korea and the United States
have inclusive economic institutions is not just their
pluralistic political institutions but also their sufficiently
centralized and powerful states. A telling contrast is with the
East African nation of Somalia. As we will see later in the
book, political power in Somalia has long been widely
distributed—almost pluralistic. Indeed there is no real
authority that can control or sanction what anyone does.
Society is divided into deeply antagonistic clans that
cannot dominate one another. The power of one clan is
constrained only by the guns of another. This distribution of
power leads not to inclusive institutions but to chaos, and at
the root of it is the Somali state’s lack of any kind of
political centralization, or state centralization, and its
inability to enforce even the minimal amount of law and
order to support economic activity, trade, or even the basic
security of its citizens.
Max Weber, who we met in the previous chapter,
provided the most famous and widely accepted definition
of the state, identifying it with the “monopoly of legitimate
violence” in society. Without such a monopoly and the
degree of centralization that it entails, the state cannot play
its role as enforcer of law and order, let alone provide
public services and encourage and regulate economic
activity. When the state fails to achieve almost any political
centralization, society sooner or later descends into chaos,
as did Somalia.
We will refer to political institutions that are sufficiently
centralized and pluralistic as inclusive political institutions.
When either of these conditions fails, we will refer to the
institutions as extractive political institutions.
There is strong synergy between economic and political
institutions. Extractive political institutions concentrate
power in the hands of a narrow elite and place few
constraints on the exercise of this power. Economic
institutions are then often structured by this elite to extract
resources from the rest of the society. Extractive economic
institutions thus naturally accompany extractive political
institutions. In fact, they must inherently depend on
extractive political institutions for their survival. Inclusive
political institutions, vesting power broadly, would tend to
uproot economic institutions that expropriate the resources
of the many, erect entry barriers, and suppress the
functioning of markets so that only a few benefit.
In Barbados, for example, the plantation system based
on the exploitation of slaves could not have survived without
political institutions that suppressed and completely
excluded the slaves from the political process. The
economic system impoverishing millions for the benefit of a
narrow communist elite in North Korea would also be
unthinkable without the total political domination of the
Communist Party.
This synergistic relationship between extractive
economic and political institutions introduces a strong
feedback loop: political institutions enable the elites
controlling political power to choose economic institutions
with few constraints or opposing forces. They also enable
the elites to structure future political institutions and their
evolution. Extractive economic institutions, in turn, enrich
the same elites, and their economic wealth and power help
consolidate their political dominance. In Barbados or in
Latin America, for example, the colonists were able to use
their political power to impose a set of economic
institutions that made them huge fortunes at the expense of
the rest of the population. The resources these economic
institutions generated enabled these elites to build armies
and security forces to defend their absolutist monopoly of
political power. The implication of course is that extractive
political and economic institutions support each other and
tend to persist.
There is in fact more to the synergy between extractive
economic and political institutions. When existing elites are
challenged under extractive political institutions and the
newcomers break through, the newcomers are likewise
subject to only a few constraints. They thus have incentives
to maintain these political institutions and create a similar
set of economic institutions, as Porfirio Díaz and the elite
surrounding him did at the end of the nineteenth century in
Mexico.
Inclusive economic institutions, in turn, are forged on
foundations laid by inclusive political institutions, which
make power broadly distributed in society and constrain its
arbitrary exercise. Such political institutions also make it
harder for others to usurp power and undermine the
foundations of inclusive institutions. Those controlling
political power cannot easily use it to set up extractive
economic institutions for their own benefit. Inclusive
economic institutions, in turn, create a more equitable
distribution of resources, facilitating the persistence of
inclusive political institutions.
It was not a coincidence that when, in 1618, the Virginia
Company gave land, and freedom from their draconian
contracts, to the colonists it had previously tried to coerce,
the General Assembly in the following year allowed the
colonists to begin governing themselves. Economic rights
without political rights would not have been trusted by the
colonists, who had seen the persistent efforts of the
Virginia Company to coerce them. Neither would these
economies have been stable and durable. In fact,
combinations of extractive and inclusive institutions are
generally unstable. Extractive economic institutions under
inclusive political institutions are unlikely to survive for long,
as our discussion of Barbados suggests.
Similarly, inclusive economic institutions will neither
support nor be supported by extractive political ones. Either
they will be transformed into extractive economic
institutions to the benefit of the narrow interests that hold
power, or the economic dynamism they create will
destabilize the extractive political institutions, opening the
way for the emergence of inclusive political institutions.
Inclusive economic institutions also tend to reduce the
benefits the elites can enjoy by ruling over extractive
political institutions, since those institutions face
competition in the marketplace and are constrained by the
contracts and property rights of the rest of society.
WHY NOT ALWAYS CHOOSE PROSPERITY?
Political and economic institutions, which are ultimately the
choice of society, can be inclusive and encourage
economic growth. Or they can be extractive and become
impediments to economic growth. Nations fail when they
have extractive economic institutions, supported by
extractive political institutions that impede and even block
economic growth. But this means that the choice of
institutions—that is, the politics of institutions—is central to
our quest for understanding the reasons for the success
and failure of nations. We have to understand why the
politics of some societies lead to inclusive institutions that
foster economic growth, while the politics of the vast
majority of societies throughout history has led, and still
leads today, to extractive institutions that hamper economic
growth.
It might seem obvious that everyone should have an
interest in creating the type of economic institutions that will
bring prosperity. Wouldn’t every citizen, every politician,
and even a predatory dictator want to make his country as
wealthy as possible?
Let’s return to the Kingdom of Kongo we discussed
earlier. Though this kingdom collapsed in the seventeenth
century, it provided the name for the modern country that
became independent from Belgian colonial rule in 1960. As
an independent polity, Congo experienced almost
unbroken economic decline and mounting poverty under
the rule of Joseph Mobutu between 1965 and 1997. This
decline continued after Mobutu was overthrown by Laurent
Kabila. Mobutu created a highly extractive set of economic
institutions. The citizens were impoverished, but Mobutu
and the elite surrounding him, known as Les Grosses
Legumes (the Big Vegetables), became fabulously wealthy.
Mobutu built himself a palace at his birthplace, Gbadolite,
in the north of the country, with an airport large enough to
land a supersonic Concord jet, a plane he frequently rented
from Air France for travel to Europe. In Europe he bought
castles and owned large tracts of the Belgian capital of
Brussels.
Wouldn’t it have been better for Mobutu to set up
economic institutions that increased the wealth of the
Congolese rather than deepening their poverty? If Mobutu
had managed to increase the prosperity of his nation,
would he not have been able to appropriate even more
money, buy a Concord instead of renting one, have more
castles and mansions, possibly a bigger and more
powerful army? Unfortunately for the citizens of many
countries in the world, the answer is no. Economic
institutions that create incentives for economic progress
may simultaneously redistribute income and power in such
a way that a predatory dictator and others with political
power may become worse off.
The fundamental problem is that there will necessarily be
disputes and conflict over economic institutions. Different
institutions have different consequences for the prosperity
of a nation, how that prosperity is distributed, and who has
power. The economic growth which can be induced by
institutions creates both winners and losers. This was clear
during the Industrial Revolution in England, which laid the
foundations of the prosperity we see in the rich countries of
the world today. It centered on a series of pathbreaking
technological changes in steam power, transportation, and
textile production. Even though mechanization led to
enormous increases in total incomes and ultimately
became the foundation of modern industrial society, it was
bitterly opposed by many. Not because of ignorance or
shortsightedness; quite the opposite. Rather, such
opposition to economic growth has its own, unfortunately
coherent, logic. Economic growth and technological
change are accompanied by what the great economist
Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction. They
replace the old with the new. New sectors attract resources
away from old ones. New firms take business away from
established ones. New technologies make existing skills
and machines obsolete. The process of economic growth
and the inclusive institutions upon which it is based create
losers as well as winners in the political arena and in the
economic marketplace. Fear of creative destruction is
often at the root of the opposition to inclusive economic and
political institutions.
European history provides a vivid example of the
consequences of creative destruction. On the eve of the
Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century, the
governments of most European countries were controlled
by aristocracies and traditional elites, whose major source
of income was from landholdings or from trading privileges
they enjoyed thanks to monopolies granted and entry
barriers imposed by monarchs. Consistent with the idea of
creative destruction, the spread of industries, factories, and
towns took resources away from the land, reduced land
rents, and increased the wages that landowners had to pay
their workers. These elites also saw the emergence of new
businessmen and merchants eroding their trading
privileges. All in all, they were the clear economic losers
from industrialization. Urbanization and the emergence of a
socially conscious middle and working class also
challenged the political monopoly of landed aristocracies.
So with the spread of the Industrial Revolution the
aristocracies weren’t just the economic losers; they also
risked becoming political losers, losing their hold on
political power. With their economic and political power
under threat, these elites often formed a formidable
opposition against industrialization.
The aristocracy was not the only loser from
industrialization. Artisans whose manual skills were being
replaced by mechanization likewise opposed the spread of
industry. Many organized against it, rioting and destroying
the machines they saw as responsible for the decline of
their livelihood. They were the Luddites, a word that has
today become synonymous with resistance to technological
change. John Kay, English inventor of the “flying shuttle” in
1733, one of the first significant improvements in the
mechanization of weaving, had his house burned down by
Luddites in 1753. James Hargreaves, inventor of the
“spinning jenny,” a complementary revolutionary
improvement in spinning, got similar treatment.
In reality, the artisans were much less effective than the
landowners and elites in opposing industrialization. The
Luddites did not possess the political power—the ability to
affect political outcomes against the wishes of other groups
—of the landed aristocracy. In England, industrialization
marched on, despite the Luddites’ opposition, because
aristocratic opposition, though real, was muted. In the
Austro-Hungarian and the Russian empires, where the
absolutist monarchs and aristocrats had far more to lose,
industrialization was blocked. In consequence, the
economies of Austria-Hungary and Russia stalled. They fell
behind other European nations, where economic growth
took off during the nineteenth century.
The success and failure of specific groups
notwithstanding, one lesson is clear: powerful groups often
stand against economic progress and against the engines
of prosperity. Economic growth is not just a process of
more and better machines, and more and better educated
people, but also a transformative and destabilizing process
associated with widespread creative destruction. Growth
thus moves forward only if not blocked by the economic
losers who anticipate that their economic privileges will be
lost and by the political losers who fear that their political
power will be eroded.
Conflict over scarce resources, income and power,
translates into conflict over the rules of the game, the
economic institutions, which will determine the economic
activities and who will benefit from them. When there is a
conflict, the wishes of all parties cannot be simultaneously
met. Some will be defeated and frustrated, while others will
succeed in securing outcomes they like. Who the winners
of this conflict are has fundamental implications for a
nation’s economic trajectory. If the groups standing against
growth are the winners, they can successfully block
economic growth, and the economy will stagnate.
The logic of why the powerful would not necessarily want
to set up the economic institutions that promote economic
success extends easily to the choice of political institutions.
In an absolutist regime, some elites can wield power to set
up economic institutions they prefer. Would they be
interested in changing political institutions to make them
more pluralistic? In general not, since this would only dilute
their political power, making it more difficult, maybe
impossible, for them to structure economic institutions to
further their own interests. Here again we see a ready
source of conflict. The people who suffer from the extractive
economic institutions cannot hope for absolutist rulers to
voluntarily change political institutions and redistribute
power in society. The only way to change these political
institutions is to force the elite to create more pluralistic
institutions.
In the same way that there is no reason why political
institutions should automatically become pluralistic, there is
no natural tendency toward political centralization. There
would certainly be incentives to create more centralized
state institutions in any society, particularly in those with no
such centralization whatsoever. For example, in Somalia, if
one clan created a centralized state capable of imposing
order on the country, this could lead to economic benefits
and make this clan richer. What stops this? The main
barrier to political centralization is again a form of fear from
change: any clan, group, or politician attempting to
centralize power in the state will also be centralizing power
in their own hands, and this is likely to meet the ire of other
clans, groups, and individuals, who would be the political
losers of this process. Lack of political centralization
means not only lack of law and order in much of a territory
but also there being many actors with sufficient powers to
block or disrupt things, and the fear of their opposition and
violent reaction will often deter many would-be centralizers.
Political centralization is likely only when one group of
people is sufficiently more powerful than others to build a
state. In Somalia, power is evenly balanced, and no one
clan can impose its will on any other. Therefore, the lack of
political centralization persists.
THE LONG AGONY OF THE CONGO
There are few better, or more depressing, examples of the
forces that explain the logic of why economic prosperity is
so persistently rare under extractive institutions or that
illustrate the synergy between extractive economic and
political institutions than the Congo. Portuguese and Dutch
visitors to Kongo in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries
remarked on the “miserable poverty” there. Technology was
rudimentary by European standards, with the Kongolese
having neither writing, the wheel, nor the plow. The reason
for this poverty, and the reluctance of Kongolese farmers to
adopt better technologies when they learned of them, is
clear from existing historical accounts. It was due to the
extractive nature of the country’s economic institutions.
As we have seen, the Kingdom of Kongo was governed
by the king in Mbanza, subsequently São Salvador. Areas
away from the capital were ruled by an elite who played the
roles of governors of different parts of the kingdom. The
wealth of this elite was based on slave plantations around
São Salvador and the extraction of taxes from the rest of
the country. Slavery was central to the economy, used by
the elite to supply their own plantations and by Europeans
on the coast. Taxes were arbitrary; one tax was even
collected every time the king’s beret fell off. To become
more prosperous, the Kongolese people would have had to
save and invest—for example, by buying plows. But it would
not have been worthwhile, since any extra output that they
produced using better technology would have been subject
to expropriation by the king and his elite. Instead of
investing to increase their productivity and selling their
products in markets, the Kongolese moved their villages
away from the market; they were trying to be as far away
from the roads as possible, in order to reduce the
incidence of plunder and to escape the reach of slave
traders.
The poverty of the Kongo was therefore the result of
extractive economic institutions that blocked all the engines
of prosperity or even made them work in reverse. The
Kongo’s government provided very few public services to
its citizens, not even basic ones, such as secure property
rights or law and order. On the contrary, the government
was itself the biggest threat to its subjects’ property and
human rights. The institution of slavery meant that the most
fundamental market of all, an inclusive labor market where
people can choose their occupation or jobs in ways that are
so crucial for a prosperous economy, did not exist.
Moreover, long-distance trade and mercantile activities
were controlled by the king and were open only to those
associated with him. Though the elite quickly became
literate after the Portuguese introduced writing, the king
made no attempt to spread literacy to the great mass of the
population.
Nevertheless, though “miserable poverty” was
widespread, the Kongolese extractive institutions had their
own impeccable logic: they made a few people, those with
political power, very rich. In the sixteenth century, the king of
Kongo and the aristocracy were able to import European
luxury goods and were surrounded by servants and slaves.
The roots of the economic institutions of Kongolese
society flowed from the distribution of political power in
society and thus from the nature of political institutions.
There was nothing to stop the king from taking people’s
possessions or bodies, other than the threat of revolt.
Though this threat was real, it was not enough to make
people or their wealth secure. The political institutions of
Kongo were truly absolutist, making the king and the elite
subject to essentially no constraints, and it gave no say to
the citizens in the way their society was organized.
Of course, it is not difficult to see that the political
institutions of Kongo contrast sharply with inclusive political
institutions where power is constrained and broadly
distributed. The absolutist institutions of Kongo were kept
in place by the army. The king had a standing army of five
thousand troops in the mid-seventeenth century, with a core
of five hundred musketeers—a formidable force for its time.
Why the king and the aristocracy so eagerly adopted
European firearms is thus easy to understand.
There was no chance of sustained economic growth
under this set of economic institutions and even incentives
for generating temporary growth were highly limited.
Reforming economic institutions to improve individual
property rights would have made the Kongolese society at
large more prosperous. But it is unlikely that the elite would
have benefited from this wider prosperity. First, such
reforms would have made the elite economic losers, by
undermining the wealth that the slave trade and slave
plantations brought them. Second, such reforms would
have been possible only if the political power of the king
and the elite were curtailed. For instance, if the king
continued to command his five hundred musketeers, who
would have believed an announcement that slavery had
been abolished? What would have stopped the king from
changing his mind later on? The only real guarantee would
have been a change in political institutions so that citizens
gained some countervailing political power, giving them
some say over taxation or what the musketeers did. But in
this case it is dubious that sustaining the consumption and
lifestyle of the king and the elite would have been high on
their list of priorities. In this scenario, changes that would
have created better economic institutions in society would
have made the king and aristocracy political as well as
economic losers.
The interaction of economic and political institutions five
hundred years ago is still relevant for understanding why the
modern state of Congo is still miserably poor today. The
advent of European rule in this area, and deeper into the
basin of the River Congo at the time of the “scramble for
Africa” in the late nineteenth century, led to an insecurity of
human and property rights even more egregious than that
which characterized the precolonial Kongo. In addition, it
reproduced the pattern of extractive institutions and political
absolutism that empowered and enriched a few at the
expense of the masses, though the few now were Belgian
colonialists, most notably King Leopold II.
When Congo became independent in 1960, the same
pattern of economic institutions, incentives, and
performance reproduced itself. These Congolese
extractive economic institutions were again supported by
highly extractive political institutions. The situation was
worsened because European colonialism created a polity,
Congo, made up of many different precolonial states and
societies that the national state, run from Kinshasa, had
little control over. Though President Mobutu used the state
to enrich himself and his cronies—for example, through the
Zairianization program of 1973, which involved the mass
expropriation of foreign economic interests—he presided
over a noncentralized state with little authority over much of
the country, and had to appeal to foreign assistance to stop
the provinces of Katanga and Kasai from seceding in the
1960s. This lack of political centralization, almost to the
point of total collapse of the state, is a feature that Congo
shares with much of sub-Saharan Africa.
The modern Democratic Republic of Congo remains
poor because its citizens still lack the economic institutions
that create the basic incentives that make a society
prosperous. It is not geography, culture, or the ignorance of
its citizens or politicians that keep the Congo poor, but its
extractive economic institutions. These are still in place
after all these centuries because political power continues
to be narrowly concentrated in the hands of an elite who
have little incentive to enforce secure property rights for the
people, to provide the basic public services that would
improve the quality of life, or to encourage economic
progress. Rather, their interests are to extract income and
sustain their power. They have not used this power to build
a centralized state, for to do so would create the same
problems of opposition and political challenges that
promoting economic growth would. Moreover, as in much
of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, infighting triggered by
rival groups attempting to take control of extractive
institutions destroyed any tendency for state centralization
that might have existed.
The history of the Kingdom of Kongo, and the more
recent history of the Congo, vividly illustrates how political
institutions determine economic institutions and, through
these, the economic incentives and the scope for economic
growth. It also illustrates the symbiotic relationship between
political absolutism and economic institutions that
empower and enrich a few at the expense of many.
GROWTH UNDER EXTRACTIVE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
Congo today is an extreme example, with lawlessness and
highly insecure property rights. However, in most cases
such extremism would not serve the interest of the elite,
since it would destroy all economic incentives and generate
few resources to be extracted. The central thesis of this
book is that economic growth and prosperity are
associated with inclusive economic and political
institutions, while extractive institutions typically lead to
stagnation and poverty. But this implies neither that
extractive institutions can never generate growth nor that all
extractive institutions are created equal.
There are two distinct but complementary ways in which
growth under extractive political institutions can emerge.
First, even if economic institutions are extractive, growth is
possible when elites can directly allocate resources to highproductivity activities that they themselves control. A
prominent example of this type of growth under extractive
institutions was the Caribbean Islands between the
sixteenth and eighteenth centuries. Most people were
slaves, working under gruesome conditions in plantations,
living barely above subsistence level. Many died from
malnutrition and exhaustion. In Barbados, Cuba, Haiti, and
Jamaica in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, a
small minority, the planter elite, controlled all political power
and owned all the assets, including all the slaves. While the
majority had no rights, the planter elite’s property and
assets were well protected. Despite the extractive
economic institutions that savagely exploited the majority of
the population, these islands were among the richest
places in the world, because they could produce sugar and
sell it in world markets. The economy of the islands
stagnated only when there was a need to shift to new
economic activities, which threatened both the incomes
and the political power of the planter elite.
Another example is the economic growth and
industrialization of the Soviet Union from the first Five-Year
Plan in 1928 until the 1970s. Political and economic
institutions were highly extractive, and markets were heavily
constrained. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union was able to
achieve rapid economic growth because it could use the
power of the state to move resources from agriculture,
where they were very inefficiently used, into industry.
The second type of growth under extractive political
institutions arises when the institutions permit the
development of somewhat, even if not completely, inclusive
economic institutions. Many societies with extractive
political institutions will shy away from inclusive economic
institutions because of fear of creative destruction. But the
degree to which the elite manage to monopolize power
varies across societies. In some, the position of the elite
could be sufficiently secure that they may permit some
moves toward inclusive economic institutions when they are
fairly certain that this will not threaten their political power.
Alternatively, the historical situation could be such as to
endow an extractive political regime with rather inclusive
economic institutions, which they decide not to block.
These provide the second way in which growth can take
place under extractive political institutions.
The rapid industrialization of South Korea under General
Park is an example. Park came to power via a military
coup in 1961, but he did so in a society heavily supported
by the United States and with an economy where economic
institutions were essentially inclusive. Though Park’s
regime was authoritarian, it felt secure enough to promote
economic growth, and in fact did so very actively—perhaps
partly because the regime was not directly supported by
extractive economic institutions. Differently from the Soviet
Union and most other cases of growth under extractive
institutions, South Korea transitioned from extractive
political institutions toward inclusive political institutions in
the 1980s. This successful transition was due to a
confluence of factors.
By the 1970s, economic institutions in South Korea had
become sufficiently inclusive that they reduced one of the
strong rationales for extractive political institutions—the
economic elite had little to gain from their own or the
military’s dominance of politics. The relative equality of
income in South Korea also meant that the elite had less to
fear from pluralism and democracy. The key influence of the
United States, particularly given the threat from North
Korea, also meant that the strong democracy movement
that challenged the military dictatorship could not be
repressed for long. Though General Park’s assassination
in 1979 was followed by another military coup, led by Chun
Doo-hwan, Chun’s chosen successor, Roh Tae-woo,
initiated a process of political reforms that led to the
consolidation of a pluralistic democracy after 1992. Of
course, no transition of this sort took place in the Soviet
Union. In consequence, Soviet growth ran out of steam, and
the economy began to collapse in the 1980s and then
totally fell apart in the 1990s.
Chinese economic growth today also has several
commonalities with both the Soviet and South Korean
experiences. While the early stages of Chinese growth
were spearheaded by radical market reforms in the
agricultural sector, reforms in the industrial sector have
been more muted. Even today, the state and the
Communist Party play a central role in deciding which
sectors and which companies will receive additional capital
and will expand—in the process, making and breaking
fortunes. As in the Soviet Union in its heyday, China is
growing rapidly, but this is still growth under extractive
institutions, under the control of the state, with little sign of a
transition to inclusive political institutions. The fact that
Chinese economic institutions are still far from fully
inclusive also suggests that a South Korean–style transition
is less likely, though of course not impossible.
It is worth noting that political centralization is key to both
ways in which growth under extractive political institutions
can occur. Without some degree of political centralization,
the planter elite in Barbados, Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica
would not have been able to keep law and order and
defend their own assets and property. Without significant
political centralization and a firm grip on political power,
neither the South Korean military elites nor the Chinese
Communist Party would have felt secure enough to
manufacture significant economic reforms and still manage
to cling to power. And without such centralization, the state
in the Soviet Union or China could not have been able to
coordinate economic activity to channel resources toward
high productivity areas. A major dividing line between
extractive political institutions is therefore their degree of
political centralization. Those without it, such as many in
sub-Saharan Africa, will find it difficult to achieve even
limited growth.
Even though extractive institutions can generate some
growth, they will usually not generate sustained economic
growth, and certainly not the type of growth that is
accompanied by creative destruction. When both political
and economic institutions are extractive, the incentives will
not be there for creative destruction and technological
change. For a while the state may be able to create rapid
economic growth by allocating resources and people by
fiat, but this process is intrinsically limited. When the limits
are hit, growth stops, as it did in the Soviet Union in the
1970s. Even when the Soviets achieved rapid economic
growth, there was little technological change in most of the
economy, though by pouring massive resources into the
military they were able to develop military technologies and
even pull ahead of the United States in the space and
nuclear race for a short while. But this growth without
creative destruction and without broad-based technological
innovation was not sustainable and came to an abrupt end.
In addition, the arrangements that support economic
growth under extractive political institutions are, by their
nature, fragile—they can collapse or can be easily
destroyed by the infighting that the extractive institutions
themselves generate. In fact, extractive political and
economic institutions create a general tendency for
infighting, because they lead to the concentration of wealth
and power in the hands of a narrow elite. If another group
can overwhelm and outmaneuver this elite and take control
of the state, they will be the ones enjoying this wealth and
power. Consequently, as our discussion of the collapse of
the later Roman Empire and the Maya cities will illustrate
(this page and this page), fighting to control the all-powerful
state is always latent, and it will periodically intensify and
bring the undoing of these regimes, as it turns into civil war
and sometimes into total breakdown and collapse of the
state. One implication of this is that even if a society under
extractive institutions initially achieves some degree of
state centralization, it will not last. In fact, the infighting to
take control of extractive institutions often leads to civil wars
and widespread lawlessness, enshrining a persistent
absence of state centralization as in many nations in subSaharan Africa and some in Latin America and South Asia.
Finally, when growth comes under extractive political
institutions but where economic institutions have inclusive
aspects, as they did in South Korea, there is always the
danger that economic institutions become more extractive
and growth stops. Those controlling political power will
eventually find it more beneficial to use their power to limit
competition, to increase their share of the pie, or even to
steal and loot from others rather than support economic
progress. The distribution and ability to exercise power will
ultimately undermine the very foundations of economic
prosperity, unless political institutions are transformed from
extractive to inclusive.
4.
SMALL DIFFERENCES AND CRITICAL JUNCTURES:
THE WEIGHT OF HISTORY
THE WORLD THE PLAGUE CREATED
IN 1346 THE BUBONIC plague, the Black Death, reached the
port city of Tana at the mouth of the River Don on the Black
Sea. Transmitted by fleas living on rats, the plague was
brought from China by traders traveling along the Silk
Road, the great trans-Asian commercial artery. Thanks to
Genoese traders, the rats were soon spreading the fleas
and the plague from Tana to the entire Mediterranean. By
early 1347, the plague had reached Constantinople. In the
spring of 1348, it was spreading through France and North
Africa and up the boot of Italy. The plague wiped out about
half of the population of any area it hit. Its arrival in the
Italian city of Florence was witnessed firsthand by the Italian
writer Giovanni Boccaccio. He later recalled:
In the face of its onrush, all the wisdom and
ingenuity of man were unavailing … the
plague began, in a terrifying and
extraordinary manner, to make its disastrous
effects apparent. It did not take the form it
had assumed in the East, where if anyone
bled from the nose it was an obvious portent
of certain death. On the contrary, its earliest
symptom was the appearance of certain
swellings in the groin or armpit, some of
which were egg-shaped whilst others were
roughly the size of a common apple … Later
on the symptoms of the disease changed,
and many people began to find dark blotches
and bruises on their arms, thighs and other
parts of their bodies … Against these
maladies … All the advice of physicians and
all the power of medicine were profitless and
unavailing … And in most cases death
occurred within three days from the
appearance of the symptoms we have
described.
People in England knew the plague was coming their
way and were well aware of impending doom. In midAugust 1348, King Edward III asked the Archbishop of
Canterbury to organize prayers, and many bishops wrote
letters for priests to read out in church to help people cope
with what was about to hit them. Ralph of Shrewsbury,
Bishop of Bath, wrote to his priests:
Almighty God uses thunder, lightening [ sic],
and other blows which issue from his throne
to scourge the sons whom he wishes to
redeem. Accordingly, since a catastrophic
pestilence from the East has arrived in a
neighboring kingdom, it is to be very much
feared that, unless we pray devoutly and
incessantly, a similar pestilence will stretch
its poisonous branches into this realm, and
strike down and consume the inhabitants.
Therefore we must all come before the
presence of the Lord in confession, reciting
psalms.
It didn’t do any good. The plague hit and quickly wiped
out about half the English population. Such catastrophes
can have a huge effect on the institutions of society.
Perhaps understandably, scores of people went mad.
Boccaccio noted that “some maintained that an infallible
way of warding off this appalling evil was to drink heavily,
enjoy life to the full, go round singing and merrymaking,
gratify all one’s cravings whenever the opportunity offered,
and shrug the thing off as an enormous joke … and this
explains why those women who recovered were possibly
less chaste in the period that followed.” Yet the plague also
had a socially, economically, and politically transformative
impact on medieval European societies.
At the turn of the fourteenth century, Europe had a feudal
order, an organization of society that first emerged in
Western Europe after the collapse of the Roman Empire. It
was based on a hierarchical relationship between the king
and the lords beneath him, with the peasants at the bottom.
The king owned the land and he granted it to the lords in
exchange for military services. The lords then allocated
land to peasants, in exchange for which peasants had to
perform extensive unpaid labor and were subject to many
fines and taxes. Peasants, who because of their “servile”
status were thus called serfs, were tied to the land, unable
to move elsewhere without the permission of their lord, who
was not just the landlord, but also the judge, jury, and police
force. It was a highly extractive system, with wealth flowing
upward from the many peasants to the few lords.
The massive scarcity of labor created by the plague
shook the foundations of the feudal order. It encouraged
peasants to demand that things change. At Eynsham
Abbey, for example, the peasants demanded that many of
the fines and unpaid labor be reduced. They got what they
wanted, and their new contract began with the assertion “At
the time of the mortality or pestilence, which occurred in
1349, scarcely two tenants remained in the manor, and they
expressed their intention of leaving unless Brother Nicholas
of Upton, then abbot and lord of the manor, made a new
agreement with them.” He did.
What happened at Eynsham happened everywhere.
Peasants started to free themselves from compulsory labor
services and many obligations to their lords. Wages started
to rise. The government tried to put a stop to this and, in
1351, passed the Statute of Laborers, which commenced:
Because a great part of the people and
especially of the workmen and servants has
now died in that pestilence, some, seeing the
straights of the masters and the scarcity of
servants, are not willing to serve unless they
receive excessive wages … We, considering
the grave inconveniences which might come
from the lack especially of ploughmen and
such labourers, have … seen fit to ordain:
that every man and woman of our kingdom of
England … shall be bound to serve him who
has seen fit so to seek after him; and he shall
take only the wages liveries, meed or salary
which, in the places where he sought to
serve, were accustomed to be paid in the
twentieth year of our reign of England [King
Edward III came to the throne on January 25,
1327, so the reference here is to 1347] or the
five or six common years next preceding.
The statute in effect tried to fix wages at the levels paid
before the Black Death. Particularly concerning for the
English elite was “enticement,” the attempt by one lord to
attract the scarce peasants of another. The solution was to
make prison the punishment for leaving employment
without permission of the employer:
And if a reaper or mower, or other workman
or servant, of whatever standing or condition
he be, who is retained in the service of any
one, do depart from the said service before
the end of the term agreed, without
permission or reasonable cause, he shall
undergo the penalty of imprisonment, and let
no one … moreover, pay or permit to be paid
to any one more wages, livery, meed or
salary than was customary as has been said.
The attempt by the English state to stop the changes of
institutions and wages that came in the wake of the Black
Death didn’t work. In 1381 the Peasants’ Revolt broke out,
and the rebels, under the leadership of Wat Tyler, even
captured most of London. Though they were ultimately
defeated, and Tyler was executed, there were no more
attempts to enforce the Statute of Laborers. Feudal labor
services dwindled away, an inclusive labor market began to
emerge in England, and wages rose.
The plague seems to have hit most of the world, and
everywhere a similar fraction of the population perished.
Thus the demographic impact in Eastern Europe was the
same as in England and Western Europe. The social and
economic forces at play were also the same. Labor was
scarce and people demanded greater freedoms. But in the
East, a more powerful contradictory logic was at work.
Fewer people meant higher wages in an inclusive labor
market. But this gave lords a greater incentive to keep the
labor market extractive and the peasants servile. In
England this motivation had been in play, too, as reflected
in the Statute of Laborers. But workers had sufficient power
that they got their way. Not so in Eastern Europe. After the
plague, Eastern landlords started to take over large tracts
of land and expand their holdings, which were already
larger than those in Western Europe. Towns were weaker
and less populous, and rather than becoming freer, workers
began to see their already existing freedoms encroached
on.
The effects became especially clear after 1500, when
Western Europe began to demand the agricultural goods,
such as wheat, rye, and livestock, produced in the East.
Eighty percent of the imports of rye into Amsterdam came
from the Elbe, Vistula, and Oder river valleys. Soon half of
the Netherlands’ booming trade was with Eastern Europe.
As Western demand expanded, Eastern landlords
ratcheted up their control over the labor force to expand
their supply. It was to be called the Second Serfdom,
distinct and more intense than its original form of the early
Middle Ages. Lords increased the taxes they levied on their
tenants’ own plots and took half of the gross output. In
Korczyn, Poland, all work for the lord in 1533 was paid. But
by 1600 nearly half was unpaid forced labor. In 1500,
workers in Mecklenberg, in eastern Germany, owed only a
few days’ unpaid labor services a year. By 1550 it was one
day a week, and by 1600, three days per week. Workers’
children had to work for the lord for free for several years. In
Hungary, landlords took complete control of the land in
1514, legislating one day a week of unpaid labor services
for each worker. In 1550 this was raised to two days per
week. By the end of the century, it was three days. Serfs
subject to these rules made up 90 percent of the rural
population by this time.
Though in 1346 there were few differences between
Western and Eastern Europe in terms of political and
economic institutions, by 1600 they were worlds apart. In
the West, workers were free of feudal dues, fines, and
regulations and were becoming a key part of a booming
market economy. In the East, they were also involved in
such an economy, but as coerced serfs growing the food
and agricultural goods demanded in the West. It was a
market economy, but not an inclusive one. This institutional
divergence was the result of a situation where the
differences between these areas initially seemed very
small: in the East, lords were a little better organized; they
had slightly more rights and more consolidated
landholdings. Towns were weaker and smaller, peasants
less organized. In the grand scheme of history, these were
small differences. Yet these small differences between the
East and the West became very consequential for the lives
of their populations and for the future path of institutional
development when the feudal order was shaken up by the
Black Death.
The Black Death is a vivid example of a critical juncture,
a major event or confluence of factors disrupting the
existing economic or political balance in society. A critical
juncture is a double-edged sword that can cause a sharp
turn in the trajectory of a nation. On the one hand it can
open the way for breaking the cycle of extractive institutions
and enable more inclusive ones to emerge, as in England.
Or it can intensify the emergence of extractive institutions,
as was the case with the Second Serfdom in Eastern
Europe.
Understanding how history and critical junctures shape
the path of economic and political institutions enables us to
have a more complete theory of the origins of differences in
poverty and prosperity. In addition, it enables us to account
for the lay of the land today and why some nations make the
transition to inclusive economic and political institutions
while others do not.
THE MAKING OF INCLUSIVE INSTITUTIONS
England was unique among nations when it made the
breakthrough to sustained economic growth in the
seventeenth century. Major economic changes were
preceded by a political revolution that brought a distinct set
of economic and political institutions, much more inclusive
than those of any previous society. These institutions would
have profound implications not only for economic incentives
and prosperity, but also for who would reap the benefits of
prosperity. They were based not on consensus but, rather,
were the result of intense conflict as different groups
competed for power, contesting the authority of others and
attempting to structure institutions in their own favor. The
culmination of the institutional struggles of the sixteenth and
seventeenth centuries were two landmark events: the
English Civil War between 1642 and 1651, and particularly
the Glorious Revolution of 1688.
The Glorious Revolution limited the power of the king and
the executive, and relocated to Parliament the power to
determine economic institutions. At the same time, it
opened up the political system to a broad cross section of
society, who were able to exert considerable influence over
the way the state functioned. The Glorious Revolution was
the foundation for creating a pluralistic society, and it built
on and accelerated a process of political centralization. It
created the world’s first set of inclusive political institutions.
As a consequence, economic institutions also started
becoming more inclusive. Neither slavery nor the severe
economic restrictions of the feudal medieval period, such
as serfdom, existed in England at the beginning of the
seventeenth century. Nevertheless, there were many
restrictions on economic activities people could engage in.
Both the domestic and international economy were choked
by monopolies. The state engaged in arbitrary taxation and
manipulated the legal system. Most land was caught in
archaic forms of property rights that made it impossible to
sell and risky to invest in.
This changed after the Glorious Revolution. The
government adopted a set of economic institutions that
provided incentives for investment, trade, and innovation. It
steadfastly enforced property rights, including patents
granting property rights for ideas, thereby providing a major
stimulus to innovation. It protected law and order.
Historically unprecedented was the application of English
law to all citizens. Arbitrary taxation ceased, and
monopolies were abolished almost completely. The English
state aggressively promoted mercantile activities and
worked to promote domestic industry, not only by removing
barriers to the expansion of industrial activity but also by
lending the full power of the English navy to defend
mercantile interests. By rationalizing property rights, it
facilitated the construction of infrastructure, particularly
roads, canals, and later railways, that would prove to be
crucial for industrial growth.
These foundations decisively changed incentives for
people and impelled the engines of prosperity, paving the
way for the Industrial Revolution. First and foremost, the
Industrial Revolution depended on major technological
advances exploiting the knowledge base that had
accumulated in Europe during the past centuries. It was a
radical break from the past, made possible by scientific
inquiry and the talents of a number of unique individuals.
The full force of this revolution came from the market that
created profitable opportunities for technologies to be
developed and applied. It was the inclusive nature of
markets that allowed people to allocate their talents to the
right lines of business. It also relied on education and skills,
for it was the relatively high levels of education, at least by
the standards of the time, that enabled the emergence of
entrepreneurs with the vision to employ new technologies
for their businesses and to find workers with the skills to
use them.
It is not a coincidence that the Industrial Revolution
started in England a few decades following the Glorious
Revolution. The great inventors such as James Watt
(perfecter of the steam engine), Richard Trevithick (the
builder of the first steam locomotive), Richard Arkwright
(the inventor of the spinning frame), and Isambard Kingdom
Brunel (the creator of several revolutionary steamships)
were able to take up the economic opportunities generated
by their ideas, were confident that their property rights
would be respected, and had access to markets where
their innovations could be profitably sold and used. In 1775,
just after he had the patent renewed on his steam engine,
which he called his “Fire engine,” James Watt wrote to his
father:
Dear Father,
After a series of various and violent
Oppositions I have at last got an Act of
Parliament vesting the property of my new
Fire engines in me and my Assigns,
throughout Great Britain & the plantations for
twenty five years to come, which I hope will
be very beneficial to me, as there is already
considerable demand for them.
This letter reveals two things. First, Watt was motivated
by the market opportunities he anticipated, by the
“considerable demand” in Great Britain and its plantations,
the English overseas colonies. Second, it shows how he
was able to influence Parliament to get what he wanted
since it was responsive to the appeals of individuals and
innovators.
The technological advances, the drive of businesses to
expand and invest, and the efficient use of skills and talent
were all made possible by the inclusive economic
institutions that England developed. These in turn were
founded on her inclusive political institutions.
England developed these inclusive political institutions
because of two factors. First were political institutions,
including a centralized state, that enabled her to take the
next radical—in fact, unprecedented—step toward inclusive
institutions with the onset of the Glorious Revolution. While
this factor distinguished England from much of the world, it
did not significantly differentiate it from Western European
countries such as France and Spain. More important was
the second factor. The events leading up to the Glorious
Revolution forged a broad and powerful coalition able to
place durable constraints on the power of the monarchy
and the executive, which were forced to be open to the
demands of this coalition. This laid the foundations for
pluralistic political institutions, which then enabled the
development of economic institutions that would underpin
the first Industrial Revolution.
SMALL DIFFERENCES THAT MATTER
World inequality dramatically increased with the British, or
English, Industrial Revolution because only some parts of
the world adopted the innovations and new technologies
that men such as Arkwright and Watt, and the many who
followed, developed. The response of different nations to
this wave of technologies, which determined whether they
would languish in poverty or achieve sustained economic
growth, was largely shaped by the different historical paths
of their institutions. By the middle of the eighteenth century,
there were already notable differences in political and
economic institutions around the world. But where did these
differences come from?
English political institutions were on their way to much
greater pluralism by 1688, compared with those in France
and Spain, but if we go back in time one hundred years, to
1588, the differences shrink to almost nothing. All three
countries were ruled by relatively absolutist monarchs:
Elizabeth I in England, Philip II in Spain, and Henry II in
France. All were battling with assemblies of citizens—such
as the Parliament in England, the Cortes in Spain, and the
Estates-General in France—that were demanding more
rights and control over the monarchy. These assemblies all
had somewhat different powers and scopes. For instance,
the English Parliament and the Spanish Cortes had power
over taxation, while the Estates-General did not. In Spain
this mattered little, because after 1492 the Spanish Crown
had a vast American empire and benefited massively from
the gold and silver found there. In England the situation was
different. Elizabeth I was far less financially independent, so
she had to beg Parliament for more taxes. In exchange,
Parliament demanded concessions, in particular
restrictions on the right of Elizabeth to create monopolies. It
was a conflict Parliament gradually won. In Spain the
Cortes lost a similar conflict. Trade wasn’t just
monopolized; it was monopolized by the Spanish
monarchy.
These distinctions, which initially appeared small, started
to matter a great deal in the seventeenth century. Though
the Americas had been discovered by 1492 and Vasco da
Gama had reached India by rounding the Cape of Good
Hope, at the southern tip of Africa, in 1498, it was only after
1600 that a huge expansion of world trade, particularly in
the Atlantic, started to take place. In 1585 the first English
colonization of North America began at Roanoke, in what is
now North Carolina. In 1600 the English East India
Company was formed. In 1602 it was followed by the Dutch
equivalent. In 1607 the colony of Jamestown was founded
by the Virginia Company. By the 1620s the Caribbean was
being colonized, with Barbados occupied in 1627. France
was also expanding in the Atlantic, founding Quebec City in
1608 as the capital of New France in what is now Canada.
The consequences of this economic expansion for
institutions were very different for England than for Spain
and France because of small initial differences.
Elizabeth I and her successors could not monopolize the
trade with the Americas. Other European monarchs could.
So while in England, Atlantic trade and colonization started
creating a large group of wealthy traders with few links to
the Crown, this was not the case in Spain or France. The
English traders resented royal control and demanded
changes in political institutions and the restriction of royal
prerogatives. They played a critical role in the English Civil
War and the Glorious Revolution. Similar conflicts took
place everywhere. French kings, for example, faced the
Fronde Rebellion between 1648 and 1652. The difference
was that in England it was far more likely that the
opponents to absolutism would prevail because they were
relatively wealthy and more numerous than the opponents
to absolutism in Spain and France.
The divergent paths of English, French, and Spanish
societies in the seventeenth century illustrate the
importance of the interplay of small institutional differences
with critical junctures. During critical junctures, a major
event or confluence of factors disrupts the existing balance
of political or economic power in a nation. These can affect
only a single country, such as the death of Chairman Mao
Zedong in 1976, which at first created a critical juncture
only for Communist China. Often, however, critical junctures
affect a whole set of societies, in the way that, for example,
colonization and then decolonization affected most of the
globe.
Such critical junctures are important because there are
formi dable barriers against gradual improvements,
resulting from the synergy between extractive political and
economic institutions and the support they give each other.
The persistence of this feedback loop creates a vicious
circle. Those who benefit from the status quo are wealthy
and well organized, and can effectively fight major changes
that will take away their economic privileges and political
power.
Once a critical juncture happens, the small differences
that matter are the initial institutional differences that put in
motion very different responses. This is the reason why the
relatively small institutional differences in England, France,
and Spain led to fundamentally different development
paths. The paths resulted from the critical juncture created
by the economic opportunities presented to Europeans by
Atlantic trade.
Even if small institutional differences matter greatly
during critical junctures, not all institutional differences are
small, and naturally, larger institutional differences lead to
even more divergent patterns during such junctures. While
the institutional differences between England and France
were small in 1588, the differences between Western and
Eastern Europe were much greater. In the West, strong
centralized states such as England, France, and Spain had
latent constitutional institutions (Parliament, the EstatesGeneral, and the Cortes). There were also underlying
similarities in economic institutions, such as the lack of
serfdom.
Eastern Europe was a different matter. The kingdom of
Poland-Lithuania, for example, was ruled by an elite class
called the Szlachta, who were so powerful they had even
introduced elections for kings. This was not absolute rule
as in France under Louis XIV, the Sun King, but absolutism
of an elite, extractive political institutions all the same. The
Szlachta ruled over a mostly rural society dominated by
serfs, who had no freedom of movement or economic
opportunities. Farther east, the Russian emperor Peter the
Great was also consolidating an absolutism far more
intense and extractive than even Louis XIV could manage.
Map 8 provides one simple way of seeing the extent of the
divergence between Western and Eastern Europe at the
beginning of the nineteenth century. It plots whether or not a
country still had serfdom in 1800. Countries that appear
dark did; those that are light did not. Eastern Europe is
dark; Western Europe is light.
Yet the institutions of Western Europe had not always
been so different from those in the East. They began, as we
saw earlier, to diverge in the fourteenth century when the
Black Death hit in 1346. There were small differences
between political and economic institutions in Western and
Eastern Europe. England and Hungary were even ruled by
members of the same family, the Angevins. The more
important institutional differences that emerged after the
Black Death then created the background upon which the
more significant divergence between the East and the
West would play out during the seventeenth, eighteenth,
and nineteenth centuries.
But where do the small institutional differences that start
this process of divergence arise in the first place? Why did
Eastern Europe have different political and economic
institutions than the West in the fourteenth century? Why
was the balance of power between Crown and Parliament
different in England than in France and Spain? As we will
see in the next chapter, even societies that are far less
complex than our modern society create political and
economic institutions that have powerful effects on the lives
of their members. This is true even for hunter-gatherers, as
we know from surviving societies such as the San people
of modern Botswana, who do not farm or even live in
permanent settlements.
No two societies create the same institutions; they will
have distinct customs, different systems of property rights,
and different ways of dividing a killed animal or loot stolen
from another group. Some will recognize the authority of
elders, others will not; some will achieve some degree of
political centralization early on, but not others. Societies are
constantly subject to economic and political conflict that is
resolved in different ways because of specific historical
differences, the role of individuals, or just random factors.
These differences are often small to start with, but they
cumulate, creating a process of institutional drift. Just as
two isolated populations of organisms will drift apart slowly
in a process of genetic drift, because random genetic
mutations cumulate, two otherwise similar societies will
also slowly drift apart institutionally. Though, just like genetic
drift, institutional drift has no predetermined path and does
not even need to be cumulative; over centuries it can lead
to perceptible, sometimes important differences. The
differences created by institutional drift become especially
consequential, because they influence how society reacts
to changes in economic or political circumstances during
critical junctures.
The richly divergent patterns of economic development
around the world hinge on the interplay of critical junctures
and institutional drift. Existing political and economic
institutions—sometimes shaped by a long process of
institutional drift and sometimes resulting from divergent
responses to prior critical junctures—create the anvil upon
which future change will be forged. The Black Death and
the expansion of world trade after 1600 were both major
critical junctures for European powers and interacted with
different initial institutions to create a major divergence.
Because in 1346 in Western Europe peasants had more
power and autonomy than they did in Eastern Europe, the
Black Death led to the dissolution of feudalism in the West
and the Second Serfdom in the East. Because Eastern and
Western Europe had started to diverge in the fourteenth
century, the new economic opportunities of the
seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries would
also have fundamentally different implications for these
different parts of Europe. Because in 1600 the grip of the
Crown was weaker in England than in France and Spain,
Atlantic trade opened the way to the creation of new
institutions with greater pluralism in England, while
strengthening the French and Spanish monarchs.
THE CONTINGENT PATH OF HISTORY
The outcomes of the events during critical junctures are
shaped by the weight of history, as existing economic and
political institutions shape the balance of power and
delineate what is politically feasible. The outcome,
however, is not historically predetermined but contingent.
The exact path of institutional development during these
periods depends on which one of the opposing forces will
succeed, which groups will be able to form effective
coalitions, and which leaders will be able to structure
events to their advantage.
The role of contingency can be illustrated by the origins
of inclusive political institutions in England. Not only was
there nothing preordained in the victory of the groups vying
for limiting the power of the Crown and for more pluralistic
institutions in the Glorious Revolution of 1688, but the entire
path leading up to this political revolution was at the mercy
of contingent events. The victory of the winning groups was
inexorably linked to the critical juncture created by the rise
of Atlantic trade that enriched and emboldened merchants
opposing the Crown. But a century earlier it was far from
obvious that England would have any ability to dominate the
seas, colonize many parts of the Caribbean and North
America, or capture so much of the lucrative trade with the
Americas and the East. Neither Elizabeth I nor other Tudor
monarchs before her had built a powerful, unified navy. The
English navy relied on privateers and independent
merchant ships and was much less powerful than the
Spanish fleet. The profits of the Atlantic nonetheless
attracted these privateers, challenging the Spanish
monopoly of the ocean. In 1588 the Spanish decided to put
an end to these challenges to their monopoly, as well as to
English meddling in the Spanish Netherlands, at the time
fighting against Spain for independence.
The Spanish monarch Philip II sent a powerful fleet, the
Armada, commanded by the Duke of Medina Sidonia. It
appeared a foregone conclusion to many that the Spanish
would conclusively defeat the English, solidify their
monopoly of the Atlantic, and probably overthrow Elizabeth
I, perhaps ultimately gaining control of the British Isles. Yet
something very different transpired. Bad weather and
strategic mistakes by Sidonia, who had been put in charge
at the last minute after a more experienced commander
died, made the Spanish Armada lose their advantage.
Against all odds, the English destroyed much of the fleet of
their more powerful opponents. The Atlantic seas were now
open to the English on more equal terms. Without this
unlikely victory for the English, the events that would create
the transformative critical juncture and spawn the
distinctively pluralistic political institutions of post-1688
England would never have got moving. Map 9 shows the
trail of Spanish shipwrecks as the Armada was chased
right around the British Isles.
Of course, nobody in 1588 could foresee the
consequences of the fortunate English victory. Few
probably understood at the time that this would create a
critical juncture leading up to a major political revolution a
century later.
There should be no presumption that any critical juncture
will lead to a successful political revolution or to change for
the better. History is full of examples of revolutions and
radical movements replacing one tyranny with another, in a
pattern that the German sociologist Robert Michels dubbed
the iron law of oligarchy, a particularly pernicious form of
the vicious circle. The end of colonialism in the decades
following the Second World War created critical junctures
for many former colonies. However, in most cases in subSaharan Africa and many in Asia, the postindependence
governments simply took a page out of Robert Michels’s
book and repeated and intensified the abuses of their
predecessors, often severely narrowing the distribution of
political power, dismantling constraints, and undermining
the already meager incentives that economic institutions
provided for investment and economic progress. It was only
in a few cases, societies such as Botswana (see this
page), that critical junctures were used to launch a process
of political and economic change that paved the way for
economic growth.
Critical junctures can also result in major change toward
rather than away from extractive institutions. Inclusive
institutions, even though they have their own feedback loop,
the virtuous circle, can also reverse course and become
gradually more extractive because of challenges during
critical junctures—and whether this happens is, again,
contingent. The Venetian Republic, as we will see in
chapter 6, made major strides toward inclusive political and
economic institutions in the medieval period. But while such
institutions became gradually stronger in England after the
Glorious Revolution of 1688, in Venice they ultimately
transformed themselves into extractive institutions under
the control of a narrow elite that monopolized both
economic opportunities and political power.
UNDERSTANDING THE LAY OF THE LAND
The emergence of a market economy based on inclusive
institutions and sustained economic growth in eighteenthcentury England sent ripples all around the world, not least
because it allowed England to colonize a large part of it.
But if the influence of English economic growth certainly
spread around the globe, the economic and political
institutions that created it did not automatically do so. The
diffusion of the Industrial Revolution had different effects on
the world in the same way that the Black Death had
different effects on Western and Eastern Europe, and in the
same way that the expansion of Atlantic trade had different
effects in England and Spain. It was the institutions in place
in different parts of the world that determined the impact,
and these institutions were indeed different—small
differences had been amplified over time by prior critical
junctures. These institutional differences and their
implications have tended to persist to the present due to
the vicious and virtuous circles, albeit imperfectly, and are
the key to understanding both how world inequality
emerged and the nature of the lay of the land around us.
Some parts of the world developed institutions that were
very close to those in England, though by a very different
route. This was particularly true of some European “settler
colonies” such as Australia, Canada, and the United
States, though their institutions were just forming as the
Industrial Revolution was getting under way. As we saw in
chapter 1, a process starting with the foundation of the
Jamestown colony in 1607 and culminating in the War of
Independence and the enactment of the U.S. Constitution
shares many of the same characteristics as the long
struggle in England of Parliament against the monarchy, for
it also led to a centralized state with pluralistic political
institutions. The Industrial Revolution then spread rapidly to
such countries.
Western Europe, experiencing many of the same
historical processes, had institutions similar to England at
the time of the Industrial Revolution. There were small but
consequential differences between England and the rest,
which is why the Industrial Revolution happened in England
and not France. This revolution then created an entirely new
situation and considerably different sets of challenges to
European regimes, which in turn spawned a new set of
conflicts culminating in the French Revolution. The French
Revolution was another critical juncture that led the
institutions of Western Europe to converge with those of
England, while Eastern Europe diverged further.
The rest of the world followed different institutional
trajectories. European colonization set the stage for
institutional divergence in the Americas, where in contrast
to the inclusive institutions developed in the United States
and Canada extractive ones emerged in Latin America,
which explains the patterns of inequality we see in the
Americas. The extractive political and economic institutions
of the Spanish conquistadors in Latin America have
endured, condemning much of the region to poverty.
Argentina and Chile have, however, fared better than most
other countries in the region. They had few indigenous
people or mineral riches and were “neglected” while the
Spanish focused on the lands occupied by the Aztec,
Maya, and Incan civilizations. Not coincidentally, the
poorest part of Argentina is the northwest, the only section
of the country integrated into the Spanish colonial economy.
Its persistent poverty, the legacy of extractive institutions, is
similar to that created by the Potosí mita in Bolivia and
Peru (this page–this page).
Africa was the part of the world with the institutions least
able to take advantage of the opportunities made available
by the Industrial Revolution. For at least the last one
thousand years, outside of small pockets and during limited
periods of time, Africa has lagged behind the rest of the
world in terms of technology, political development, and
prosperity. It is the part of the world where centralized
states formed very late and very tenuously. Where they did
form, they were likely as highly absolutist as the Kongo and
often short lived, usually collapsing. Africa shares this
trajectory of lack of state centralization with countries such
as Afghanistan, Haiti, and Nepal, which have also failed to
impose order over their territories and create anything
resembling stability to achieve even a modicum of
economic progress. Though located in very different parts
of the world, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Nepal have much in
common institutionally with most nations in sub-Saharan
Africa, and are thus some of the poorest countries in the
world today.
How African institutions evolved into their present-day
extractive form again illustrates the process of institutional
drift punctuated by critical junctures, but this time often with
highly perverse outcomes, particularly during the expansion
of the Atlantic slave trade. There were new economic
opportunities for the Kingdom of Kongo when European
traders arrived. The long-distance trade that transformed
Europe also transformed the Kingdom of Kongo, but again,
initial institutional differences mattered. Kongolese
absolutism transmogrified from completely dominating
society, with extractive economic institutions that merely
captured all the agricultural output of its citizens, to
enslaving people en masse and selling them to the
Portuguese in exchange for guns and luxury goods for the
Kongolese elite.
The initial differences between England and Kongo
meant that while new long-distance trade opportunities
created a critical juncture toward pluralistic political
institutions in the former, they also extinguished any hope of
absolutism being defeated in the Kongo. In much of Africa
the substantial profits to be had from slaving led not only to
its intensification and even more insecure property rights
for the people but also to intense warfare and the
destruction of many existing institutions; within a few
centuries, any process of state centralization was totally
reversed, and many of the African states had largely
collapsed. Though some new, and sometimes powerful,
states did form to exploit the slave trade, they were based
on warfare and plunder. The critical juncture of the
discovery of the Americas may have helped England
develop inclusive institutions but it made institutions in
Africa even more extractive.
Though the slave trade mostly ended after 1807,
subsequent European colonialism not only threw into
reverse nascent economic modernization in parts of
southern and western Africa but also cut off any possibility
of indigenous institutional reform. This meant that even
outside of areas such as Congo, Madagascar, Namibia,
and Tanzania, the areas where plunder, mass disruption,
and even whole-scale murder were the rule, there was little
chance for Africa to change its institutional path.
Even worse, the structures of colonial rule left Africa with
a more complex and pernicious institutional legacy in the
1960s than at the start of the colonial period. The
development of the political and economic institutions in
many African colonies meant that rather than creating a
critical juncture for improvements in their institutions,
independence created an opening for unscrupulous
leaders to take over and intensify the extraction that
European colonialists presided over. The political
incentives these structures created led to a style of politics
that reproduced the historical patterns of insecure and
inefficient property rights under states with strong absolutist
tendencies but nonetheless lacking any centralized
authority over their territories.
The Industrial Revolution has still not spread to Africa
because that continent has experienced a long vicious
circle of the persistence and re-creation of extractive
political and economic institutions. Botswana is the
exception. As we will see (this page–this page), in the
nineteenth century, King Khama, the grandfather of
Botswana’s first prime minister at independence, Seretse
Khama, initiated institutional changes to modernize the
political and economic institutions of his tribe. Quite
uniquely, these changes were not destroyed in the colonial
period, partly as a consequence of Khama’s and other
chiefs’ clever challenges to colonial authority. Their
interplay with the critical juncture that independence from
colonial rule created laid the foundations for Botswana’s
economic and political success. It was another case of
small historical differences mattering.
There is a tendency to see historical events as the
inevitable consequences of deep-rooted forces. While we
place great emphasis on how the history of economic and
political institutions creates vicious and virtuous circles,
contingency, as we have emphasized in the context of the
development of English institutions, can always be a factor.
Seretse Khama, studying in England in the 1940s, fell in
love with Ruth Williams, a white woman. As a result, the
racist apartheid regime in South Africa persuaded the
English government to ban him from the protectorate, then
called Bechuanaland (whose administration was under the
High Commissioner of South Africa), and he resigned his
kingship. When he returned to lead the anticolonial
struggle, he did so with the intention not of entrenching the
traditional institutions but of adapting them to the modern
world. Khama was an extraordinary man, uninterested in
personal wealth and dedicated to building his country. Most
other African countries have not been so fortunate. Both
things mattered, the historical development of institutions in
Botswana and contingent factors that led these to be built
on rather than overthrown or distorted as they were
elsewhere in Africa.
IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY, absolutism not so different from
that in Africa or Eastern Europe was blocking the path of
industrialization in much of Asia. In China, the state was
strongly absolutist, and independent cities, merchants, and
industrialists were either nonexistent or much weaker
politically. China was a major naval power and heavily
involved in long-distance trade centuries before the
Europeans. But it had turned away from the oceans just at
the wrong time, when Ming emperors decided in the late
fourteenth and early fifteenth centuries that increased longdistance trade and the creative destruction that it might
bring would be likely to threaten their rule.
In India, institutional drift worked differently and led to the
development of a uniquely rigid hereditary caste system
that limited the functioning of markets and the allocation of
labor across occupations much more severely than the
feudal order in medieval Europe. It also underpinned
another strong form of absolutism under the Mughal rulers.
Most European countries had similar systems in the Middle
Ages. Modern Anglo-Saxon surnames such as Baker,
Cooper, and Smith are direct descendants of hereditary
occupational categories. Bakers baked, coopers made
barrels, and smiths forged metals. But these categories
were never as rigid as Indian caste distinctions and
gradually became meaningless as predictors of a person’s
occupation. Though Indian merchants did trade throughout
the Indian Ocean, and a major textile industry developed,
the caste system and Mughal absolutism were serious
impediments to the development of inclusive economic
institutions in India. By the nineteenth century, things were
even less hospitable for industrialization as India became
an extractive colony of the English. China was never
formally colonized by a European power, but after the
English successfully defeated the Chinese in the Opium
Wars between 1839 and 1842, and then again between
1856 and 1860, China had to sign a series of humiliating
treaties and allow European exports to enter. As China,
India, and others failed to take advantage of commercial
and industrial opportunities, Asia, except for Japan, lagged
behind as Western Europe was forging ahead.
THE COURSE OF institutional development that Japan charted
in the nineteenth century again illustrates the interaction
between critical junctures and small differences created by
institutional drift. Japan, like China, was under absolutist
rule. The Tokugawa family took over in 1600 and ruled over
a feudal system that also banned international trade.
Japan, too, faced a critical juncture created by Western
intervention as four U.S. warships, commanded by Matthew
C. Perry, entered Edo Bay in July 1853, demanding trade
concessions similar to those England obtained from the
Chinese in the Opium Wars. But this critical juncture played
out very differently in Japan. Despite their proximity and
frequent interactions, by the nineteenth century China and
Japan had already drifted apart institutionally.
While Tokugawa rule in Japan was absolutist and
extractive, it had only a tenuous hold on the leaders of the
other major feudal domains and was susceptible to
challenge. Even though there were peasant rebellions and
civil strife, absolutism in China was stronger, and the
opposition less organized and autonomous. There were no
equivalents of the leaders of the other domains in China
who could challenge the absolutist rule of the emperor and
trace an alternative institutional path. This institutional
difference, in many ways small relative to the differences
separating China and Japan from Western Europe, had
decisive consequences during the critical juncture created
by the forceful arrival of the English and Americans. China
continued in its absolutist path after the Opium Wars, while
the U.S. threat cemented the opposition to Tokugawa rule
in Japan and led to a political revolution, the Meiji
Restoration, as we will see in chapter 10. This Japanese
political revolution enabled more inclusive political
institutions and much more inclusive economic institutions
to develop, and laid the foundations for subsequent rapid
Japanese growth, while China languished under
absolutism.
How Japan reacted to the threat posed by U.S. warships,
by starting a process of fundamental institutional
transformation, helps us understand another aspect of the
lay of the land around us: transitions from stagnation to
rapid growth. South Korea, Taiwan, and finally China
achieved breakneck rates of economic growth since the
Second World War through a path similar to the one that
Japan took. In each of these cases, growth was preceded
by historic changes in the countries’ economic institutions
—though not always in their political institutions, as the
Chinese case highlights.
The logic of how episodes of rapid growth come to an
abrupt end and are reversed is also related. In the same
way that decisive steps toward inclusive economic
institutions can ignite rapid economic growth, a sharp turn
away from inclusive institutions can lead to economic
stagnation. But more often, collapses of rapid growth, such
as in Argentina or the Soviet Union, are a consequence of
growth under extractive institutions coming to an end. As
we have seen, this can happen either because of infighting
over the spoils of extraction, leading to the collapse of the
regime, or because the inherent lack of innovation and
creative destruction under extractive institutions puts a limit
on sustained growth. How the Soviets ran hard into these
limits will be discussed in greater detail in the next chapter.
IF THE POLITICAL and economic institutions of Latin America
over the past five hundred years were shaped by Spanish
colonialism, those of the Middle East were shaped by
Ottoman colonialism. In 1453 the Ottomans under Sultan
Mehmet II captured Constantinople, making it their capital.
During the rest of the century, the Ottomans conquered
large parts of the Balkans and most of the rest of Turkey. In
the first half of the sixteenth century, Ottoman rule spread
throughout the Middle East and North Africa. By 1566, at
the death of Sultan Süleyman I, known as the Magnificent,
their empire stretched from Tunisia in the East, through
Egypt, all the way to Mecca in the Arabian Peninsula, and
on to what is now modern Iraq. The Ottoman state was
absolutist, with the sultan accountable to few and sharing
power with none. The economic institutions the Ottomans
imposed were highly extractive. There was no private
property in land, which all formally belonged to the state.
Taxation of land and agricultural output, together with loot
from war, was the main source of government revenues.
However, the Ottoman state did not dominate the Middle
East in the same way that it could dominate its heartland in
Anatolia or even to the extent that the Spanish state
dominated Latin American society. The Ottoman state was
continuously challenged by Bedouins and other tribal
powers in the Arabian Peninsula. It lacked not only the
ability to impose a stable order in much of the Middle East
but also the administrative capacity to collect taxes. So it
“farmed” them out to individuals, selling off the right to
others to collect taxes in whatever way they could. These
tax farmers became autonomous and powerful. Rates of
taxation in the Middle Eastern territories were very high,
varying between one-half or two-thirds of what farmers
produced. Much of this revenue was kept by the tax
farmers. Because the Ottoman state failed to establish a
stable order in these areas, property rights were far from
secure, and there was a great deal of lawlessness and
banditry as armed groups vied for local control. In
Palestine, for example, the situation was so dire that
starting in the late sixteenth century, peasants left the most
fertile land and moved up to mountainous areas, which
gave them greater protection against banditry.
Extractive economic institutions in the urban areas of the
Ottoman Empire were no less stifling. Commerce was
under state control, and occupations were strictly regulated
by guilds and monopolies. The consequence was that at
the time of the Industrial Revolution the economic
institutions of the Middle East were extractive. The region
stagnated economically.
By the 1840s, the Ottomans were trying to reform
institutions—for example, by reversing tax farming and
getting locally autonomous groups under control. But
absolutism persisted until the First World War, and reform
efforts were thwarted by the usual fear of creative
destruction and the anxiety among elite groups that they
would lose economically or politically. While Ottoman
reformers talked of introducing private property rights to
land in order to increase agricultural productivity, the status
quo persisted because of the desire for political control and
taxation. Ottoman colonization was followed by European
colonization after 1918. When European control ended, the
same dynamics we have seen in sub-Saharan Africa took
hold, with extractive colonial institutions taken over by
independent elites. In some cases, such as the monarchy
of Jordan, these elites were direct creations of the colonial
powers, but this, too, happened frequently in Africa, as we
will see. Middle Eastern countries without oil today have
income levels similar to poor Latin American nations. They
did not suffer from such immiserizing forces as the slave
trade, and they benefited for a longer period from flows of
technology from Europe. In the Middle Ages, the Middle
East itself was also a relatively advanced part of the world
economically. So today it is not as poor as Africa, but the
majority of its people still live in poverty.
WE HAVE SEEN that neither geographic- nor cultural- nor
ignorance-based theories are helpful for explaining the lay
of the land around us. They do not provide a satisfactory
account for the prominent patterns of world inequality: the
fact that the process of economic divergence started with
the Industrial Revolution in England during the eighteenth
and nineteenth centuries and then spread to Western
Europe and to European settler colonies; the persistent
divergence between different parts of the Americas; the
poverty of Africa or the Middle East; the divergence
between Eastern and Western Europe; and the transitions
from stagnation to growth and the sometimes abrupt end to
growth spurts. Our institutional theory does.
In the remaining chapters, we will discuss in greater
detail how this institutional theory works and illustrate the
wide range of phenomena it can account for. These range
from the origins of the Neolithic Revolution to the collapse
of several civilizations, either because of the intrinsic limits
to growth under extractive institutions or because of limited
steps toward inclusiveness being reversed.
We will see how and why decisive steps toward inclusive
political institutions were taken during the Glorious
Revolution in England. We will look more specifically at the
following:
• How inclusive institutions emerged from the interplay
of the critical juncture created by Atlantic trade and the
nature of preexisting English institutions.
• How these institutions persisted and became
strengthened to lay the foundations for the Industrial
Revolution, thanks in part to the virtuous circle and in
part to fortunate turns of contingency.
• How many regimes reigning over absolutist and
extractive institutions steadfastly resisted the spread of
new technologies unleashed by the Industrial
Revolution.
• How Europeans themselves stamped out the
possibility of economic growth in many parts of the
world that they conquered.
• How the vicious circle and the iron law of oligarchy
have created a powerful tendency for extractive
institutions to persist, and thus the lands where the
Industrial Revolution originally did not spread remain
relatively poor.
• Why the Industrial Revolution and other new
technologies have not spread and are unlikely to
spread to places around the world today where a
minimum degree of centralization of the state hasn’t
been achieved.
Our discussion will also show that certain areas that
managed to transform institutions in a more inclusive
direction, such as France or Japan, or that prevented the
establishment of extractive institutions, such as the United
States or Australia, were more receptive to the spread of
the Industrial Revolution and pulled ahead of the rest. As in
England, this was not always a smooth process, and along
the way, many challenges to inclusive institutions were
overcome, sometimes because of the dynamics of the
virtuous circle, sometimes thanks to the contingent path of
history.
Finally, we will also discuss how the failure of nations
today is heavily influenced by their institutional histories,
how much policy advice is informed by incorrect
hypotheses and is potentially misleading, and how nations
are still able to seize critical junctures and break the mold
to reform their institutions and embark upon a path to
greater prosperity.
5.
“I’VE SEEN THE FUTURE, AND IT WORKS”:
GROWTH UNDER EXTRACTIVE INSTITUTIONS
I’VE SEEN THE FUTURE
INSTITUTIONAL DIFFERENCES PLAY the critical role in explaining
economic growth throughout the ages. But if most societies
in history are based on extractive political and economic
institutions, does this imply that growth never takes place?
Obviously not. Extractive institutions, by their very logic,
must create wealth so that it can be extracted. A ruler
monopolizing political power and in control of a centralized
state can introduce some degree of law and order and a
system of rules, and stimulate economic activity.
But growth under extractive institutions differs in nature
from growth brought forth by inclusive institutions. Most
important, it will be not sustained growth that requires
technological change, but rather growth based on existing
technologies. The economic trajectory of the Soviet Union
provides a vivid illustration of how the authority and
incentives provided by the state can spearhead rapid
economic growth under extractive institutions and how this
type of growth ultimately comes to an end and collapses.
THE FIRST WORLD WAR had ended and the victorious and
the vanquished powers met in the great palace of
Versailles, outside Paris, to decide on the parameters of
the peace. Prominent among the attendees was Woodrow
Wilson, president of the United States. Noticeable by its
absence was any representation from Russia. The old
tsarist regime had been overthrown by the Bolsheviks in
October 1917. A civil war then raged between the Reds
(the Bolsheviks) and the Whites. The English, French, and
Americans sent an expeditionary force to fight against the
Bolsheviks. A mission led by a young diplomat, William
Bullitt, and the veteran intellectual and journalist Lincoln
Steffens was sent to Moscow to meet with Lenin to try to
understand the intentions of the Bolsheviks and how to
come to terms with them. Steffens had made his name as
an iconoclast, a muckraker journalist who had persistently
denounced the evils of capitalism in the United States. He
had been in Russia at the time of the revolution. His
presence was intended to make the mission look credible
and not too hostile. The mission returned with the outlines
of an offer from Lenin about what it would take for peace
with the newly created Soviet Union. Steffens was bowled
over by what he saw as the great potential of the Soviet
regime.
“Soviet Russia,” he recalled in his 1931 autobiography,
“was a revolutionary government with an evolutionary plan.
Their plan was not to end evils such as poverty and riches,
graft, privilege, tyranny, and war by direct action, but to
seek out and remove their causes. They had set up a
dictatorship, supported by a small, trained minority, to
make and maintain for a few generations a scientific
rearrangement of economic forces which would result in
economic democracy first and political democracy last.”
When Steffens returned from his diplomatic mission he
went to see his old friend the sculptor Jo Davidson and
found him making a portrait bust of the wealthy financier
Bernard Baruch. “So you’ve been over in Russia,” Baruch
remarked. Steffens answered, “I have been over into the
future, and it works.” He would perfect this adage into a
form that went down in history: “I’ve seen the future, and it
works.”
Right up until the early 1980s, many Westerners were still
seeing the future in the Soviet Union, and they kept on
believing that it was working. In a sense it was, or at least it
did for a time. Lenin had died in 1924, and by 1927 Joseph
Stalin had consolidated his grip on the country. He purged
his opponents and launched a drive to rapidly industrialize
the country. He did it via energizing the State Planning
Committee, Gosplan, which had been founded in 1921.
Gosplan wrote the first Five-Year Plan, which ran between
1928 and 1933. Economic growth Stalin style was simple:
develop industry by government command and obtain the
necessary resources for this by taxing agriculture at very
high rates. The communist state did not have an effective
tax system, so instead Stalin “collectivized” agriculture. This
process entailed the abolition of private property rights to
land and the herding of all people in the countryside into
giant collective farms run by the Communist Party. This
made it much easier for Stalin to grab agricultural output
and use it to feed all the people who were building and
manning the new factories. The consequences of this for
the rural folk were calamitous. The collective farms
completely lacked incentives for people to work hard, so
production fell sharply. So much of what was produced was
extracted that there was not enough to eat. People began
to starve to death. In the end, probably six million people
died of famine, while hundreds of thousands of others were
murdered or banished to Siberia during the forcible
collectivization.
Neither the newly created industry nor the collectivized
farms were economically efficient in the sense that they
made the best use of what resources the Soviet Union
possessed. It sounds like a recipe for economic disaster
and stagnation, if not outright collapse. But the Soviet Union
grew rapidly. The reason for this is not difficult to
understand. Allowing people to make their own decisions
via markets is the best way for a society to efficiently use its
resources. When the state or a narrow elite controls all
these resources instead, neither the right incentives will be
created nor will there be an efficient allocation of the skills
and talents of people. But in some instances the
productivity of labor and capital may be so much higher in
one sector or activity, such as heavy industry in the Soviet
Union, that even a top-down process under extractive
institutions that allocates resources toward that sector can
generate growth. As we saw in chapter 3, extractive
institutions in Caribbean islands such as Barbados, Cuba,
Haiti, and Jamaica could generate relatively high levels of
i nc o me s because they allocated resources to the
production of sugar, a commodity coveted worldwide. The
production of sugar based on gangs of slaves was certainly
not “efficient,” and there was no technological change or
creative destruction in these societies, but this did not
prevent them from achieving some amount of growth under
extractive institutions. The situation was similar in the
Soviet Union, with industry playing the role of sugar in the
Caribbean. Industrial growth in the Soviet Union was further
facilitated because its technology was so backward relative
to what was available in Europe and the United States, so
large gains could be reaped by reallocating resources to
the industrial sector, even if all this was done inefficiently
and by force.
Before 1928 most Russians lived in the countryside. The
technology used by peasants was primitive, and there were
few incentives to be productive. Indeed, the last vestiges of
Russian feudalism were eradicated only shortly before the
First World War. There was thus huge unrealized economic
potential from reallocating this labor from agriculture to
industry. Stalinist industrialization was one brutal way of
unlocking this potential. By fiat, Stalin moved these very
poorly used resources into industry, where they could be
employed more productively, even if industry itself was very
inefficiently organized relative to what could have been
achieved. In fact, between 1928 and 1960 national income
grew at 6 percent a year, probably the most rapid spurt of
economic growth in history up until then. This quick
economic growth was not created by technological change,
but by reallocating labor and by capital accumulation
through the creation of new tools and factories.
Growth was so rapid that it took in generations of
Westerners, not just Lincoln Steffens. It took in the Central
Intelligence Agency of the United States. It even took in the
Soviet Union’s own leaders, such as Nikita Khrushchev,
who famously boasted in a speech to Western diplomats in
1956 that “we will bury you [the West].” As late as 1977, a
leading academic textbook by an English economist
argued that Soviet-style economies were superior to
capitalist ones in terms of economic growth, providing full
employment and price stability and even in producing
people with altruistic motivation. Poor old Western
capitalism did better only at providing political freedom.
Indeed, the most widely used university textbook in
economics, written by Nobel Prize–winner Paul
Samuelson, repeatedly predicted the coming economic
dominance of the Soviet Union. In the 1961 edition,
Samuelson predicted that Soviet national income would
overtake that of the United States possibly by 1984, but
probably by 1997. In the 1980 edition there was little
change in the analysis, though the two dates were delayed
to 2002 and 2012.
Though the policies of Stalin and subsequent Soviet
leaders could produce rapid economic growth, they could
not do so in a sustained way. By the 1970s, economic
growth had all but stopped. The most important lesson is
that extractive institutions cannot generate sustained
technological change for two reasons: the lack of economic
incentives and resistance by the elites. In addition, once all
the very inefficiently used resources had been reallocated
to industry, there were few economic gains to be had by
fiat. Then the Soviet system hit a roadblock, with lack of
innovation and poor economic incentives preventing any
further progress. The only area in which the Soviets did
manage to sustain some innovation was through enormous
efforts in military and aerospace technology. As a result
they managed to put the first dog, Leika, and the first man,
Yuri Gagarin, in space. They also left the world the AK-47
as one of their legacies.
Gosplan was the supposedly all-powerful planning
agency in charge of the central planning of the Soviet
economy. One of the benefits of the sequence of five-year
plans written and administered by Gosplan was supposed
to have been the long time horizon necessary for rational
investment and innovation. In reality, what got implemented
in Soviet industry had little to do with the five-year plans,
which were frequently revised and rewritten or simply
ignored. The development of industry took place on the
basis of commands by Stalin and the Politburo, who
changed their minds frequently and often completely
revised their previous decisions. All plans were labeled
“draft” or “preliminary.” Only one copy of a plan labeled
“final”—that for light industry in 1939—has ever come to
light. Stalin himself said in 1937 that “only bureaucrats can
think that planning work ends with the creation of the plan.
The creation of the plan is just the beginning. The real
direction of the plan develops only after the putting together
of the plan.” Stalin wanted to maximize his discretion to
reward people or groups who were politically loyal, and
punish those who were not. As for Gosplan, its main role
was to provide Stalin with information so he could better
monitor his friends and enemies. It actually tried to avoid
making decisions. If you made a decision that turned out
badly, you might get shot. Better to avoid all responsibility.
An example of what could happen if you took your job too
seriously, rather than successfully second-guessing what
the Communist Party wanted, is provided by the Soviet
census of 1937. As the returns came in, it became clear
that they would show a population of about 162 million, far
less than the 180 million Stalin had anticipated and indeed
below the figure of 168 million that Stalin himself
announced in 1934. The 1937 census was the first
conducted since 1926, and therefore the first one that
followed the mass famines and purges of the early 1930s.
The accurate population numbers reflected this. Stalin’s
response was to have those who organized the census
arrested and sent to Siberia or shot. He ordered another
census, which took place in 1939. This time the organizers
got it right; they found that the population was actually 171
million.
Stalin understood that in the Soviet economy, people had
few incentives to work hard. A natural response would have
been to introduce such incentives, and sometimes he did—
for example, by directing food supplies to areas where
productivity had fallen—to reward improvements.
Moreover, as early as 1931 he gave up on the idea of
creating “socialist men and women” who would work
without monetary incentives. In a famous speech he
criticized “equality mongering,” and thereafter not only did
different jobs get paid different wages but also a bonus
system was introduced. It is instructive to understand how
this worked. Typically a firm under central planning had to
meet an output target set under the plan, though such plans
were often renegotiated and changed. From the 1930s,
workers were paid bonuses if the output levels were
attained. These could be quite high—for instance, as much
as 37 percent of the wage for management or senior
engineers. But paying such bonuses created all sorts of
disincentives to technological change. For one thing,
innovation, which took resources away from current
production, risked the output targets not being met and the
bonuses not being paid. For another, output targets were
usually based on previous production levels. This created a
huge incentive never to expand output, since this only
meant having to produce more in the future, since future
targets would be “ratcheted up.” Underachievement was
always the best way to meet targets and get the bonus. The
fact that bonuses were paid monthly also kept everyone
focused on the present, while innovation is about making
sacrifices today in order to have more tomorrow.
Even when bonuses and incentives were effective in
changing behavior, they often created other problems.
Central planning was just not good at replacing what the
great eighteenth-century economist Adam Smith called the
“invisible hand” of the market. When the plan was
formulated in tons of steel sheet, the sheet was made too
heavy. When it was formulated in terms of area of steel
sheet, the sheet was made too thin. When the plan for
chandeliers was made in tons, they were so heavy, they
could hardly hang from ceilings.
By the 1940s, the leaders of the Soviet Union, even if not
their admirers in the West, were well aware of these
perverse incentives. The Soviet leaders acted as if they
were due to technical problems, which could be fixed. For
example, they moved away from paying bonuses based on
output targets to allowing firms to set aside portions of
profits to pay bonuses. But a “profit motive” was no more
encouraging to innovation than one based on output
targets. The system of prices used to calculate profits was
almost completely unconnected to the value of new
innovations or technology. Unlike in a market economy,
prices in the Soviet Union were set by the government, and
thus bore little relation to value. To more specifically create
incentives for innovation, the Soviet Union introduced
explicit innovation bonuses in 1946. As early as 1918, the
principle had been recognized that an innovator should
receive monetary rewards for his innovation, but the
rewards set were small and unrelated to the value of the
new technology. This changed only in 1956, when it was
stipulated that the bonus should be proportional to the
productivity of the innovation. However, since productivity
was calculated in terms of economic benefits measured
using the existing system of prices, this was again not
much of an incentive to innovate. One could fill many pages
with examples of the perverse incentives these schemes
generated. For example, because the size of the innovation
bonus fund was limited by the wage bill of a firm, this
immediately reduced the incentive to produce or adopt any
innovation that might have economized on labor.
Focusing on the different rules and bonus schemes tends
to mask the inherent problems of the system. As long as
political authority and power rested with the Communist
Party, it was impossible to fundamentally change the basic
incentives that people faced, bonuses or no bonuses.
Since its inception, the Communist Party had used not just
carrots but also sticks, big sticks, to get its way.
Productivity in the economy was no different. A whole set of
laws created criminal offenses for workers who were
perceived to be shirking. In June 1940, for example, a law
made absenteeism, defined as any twenty minutes
unauthorized absence or even idling on the job, a criminal
offense that could be punished by six months’ hard labor
and a 25 percent cut in pay. All sorts of similar punishments
were introduced, and were implemented with astonishing
frequency. Between 1940 and 1955, 36 million people,
about one-third of the adult population, were found guilty of
such offenses. Of these, 15 million were sent to prison and
250,000 were shot. In any year, there would be 1 million
adults in prison for labor violations; this is not to mention the
2.5 million people Stalin exiled to the gulags of Siberia.
Still, it didn’t work. Though you can move someone to a
factory, you cannot force people to think and have good
ideas by threatening to shoot them. Coercion like this might
have generated a high output of sugar in Barbados or
Jamaica, but it could not compensate for the lack of
incentives in a modern industrial economy.
The fact that truly effective incentives could not be
introduced in the centrally planned economy was not due to
technical mistakes in the design of the bonus schemes. It
was intrinsic to the whole method by which extractive
growth had been achieved. It had been done by
government command, which could solve some basic
economic problems. But stimulating sustained economic
growth required that individuals use their talent and ideas,
and this could never be done with a Soviet-style economic
system. The rulers of the Soviet Union would have had to
abandon extractive economic institutions, but such a move
would have jeopardized their political power. Indeed, when
Mikhail Gorbachev started to move away from extractive
economic institutions after 1987, the power of the
Communist Party crumbled, and with it, the Soviet Union.
THE SOVIET UNION was able to generate rapid growth even
under extractive institutions because the Bolsheviks built a
powerful centralized state and used it to allocate resources
toward industry. But as in all instances of growth under
extractive institutions, this experience did not feature
technological change and was not sustained. Growth first
slowed down and then totally collapsed. Though ephemeral,
this type of growth still illustrates how extractive institutions
can stimulate economic activity.
Throughout history most societies have been ruled by
extractive institutions, and those that have managed to
impose some extent of order over the countries have been
able to generate some limited growth—even if none of
these extractive societies have managed to achieve
sustained growth. In fact, some of the major turning points
in history are characterized by institutional innovations that
cemented extractive institutions and increased the authority
of one group to impose law and order and benefit from
extraction. In the rest of this chapter, we will first discuss the
nature of institutional innovations that establish some
degree of state centralization and enable growth under
extractive institutions. We shall then show how these ideas
help us understand the Neolithic Revolution, the
momentous transition to agriculture, which underpins many
aspects of our current civilization. We will conclude by
illustrating, with the example of the Maya city-states, how
growth under extractive institutions is limited not only
because of lack of technological progress but also
because it will encourage infighting from rival groups
wishing to take control of the state and the extraction it
generates.
ON THE BANKS OF THE KASAI
One of the great tributaries of the River Congo is the Kasai.
Rising in Angola, it heads north and merges with the Congo
northeast of Kinshasa, the capital of the modern
Democratic Republic of Congo. Though the Democratic
Republic of Congo is poor compared with the rest of the
world, there have always been significant differences in the
prosperity of various groups within Congo. The Kasai is the
boundary between two of these. Soon after passing into
Congo along the western bank, you’ll find the Lele people;
on the eastern bank are the Bushong (Map 6, this page).
On the face of it there ought to be few differences between
these two groups with regard to their prosperity. They are
separated only by a river, which either can cross by boat.
The two different tribes have a common origin and related
languages. In addition, many of the things they build are
similar in style, including their houses, clothes, and crafts.
Yet when the anthropologist Mary Douglas and the
historian Jan Vansina studied these groups in the 1950s,
they discovered some startling differences between them.
As Douglas put it: “The Lele are poor, while the Bushong
are rich … Everything that the Lele have or can do, the
Bushong have more and can do better.” Simple
explanations for this inequality are easy to come by. One
difference, reminiscent of that between places in Peru that
were or were not subject to the Potosí mita, is that the Lele
produced for subsistence while the Bushong produced for
exchange in the market. Douglas and Vansina also noted
that the Lele used inferior technology. For instance, they did
not use nets for hunting, even though these greatly improve
productivity. Douglas argued, “[T]he absence of nets is
consistent with a general Lele tendency not to invest time
and labor in long-term equipment.”
There were also important distinctions in agricultural
technologies and organization. The Bushong practiced a
sophisticated form of mixed farming where five crops were
planted in succession in a two-year system of rotation. They
grew yams, sweet potatoes, manioc (cassava), and beans
and gathered two and sometimes three maize harvests a
year. The Lele had no such system and managed to reap
only one annual harvest of maize.
There were also striking differences in law and order.
The Lele were dispersed into fortified villages, which were
constantly in conflict. Anyone traveling between two or even
venturing into the forest to collect food was liable to be
attacked or kidnapped. In the Bushong country, this rarely, if
ever, happened.
What lay behind these differences in the patterns of
production, agricultural technology, and prevalence of
order? Obviously it was not geography that induced the
Lele to use inferior hunting and agricultural technology. It
was certainly not ignorance, because they knew about the
tools used by the Bushong. An alternative explanation might
be culture; could it be that the Lele had a culture that did not
encourage them to invest in hunting nets and sturdier and
better-built houses? But this does not seem to have been
true, either. As with the people of Kongo, the Lele were very
interested in purchasing guns, and Douglas even remarked
that “their eager purchase of firearms … shows their culture
does not restrict them to inferior techniques when these do
not require long-term collaboration and effort.” So neither a
cultural aversion to technology nor ignorance nor
geography does a good job of explaining the greater
prosperity of the Bushong relative to the Lele.
The reason for differences between these two peoples
lies in the different political institutions that emerged in the
lands of the Bushong and the Lele. We noted earlier that
the Lele lived in fortified villages that were not part of a
unified political structure. It was different on the other side
of the Kasai. Around 1620 a political revolution took place
led by a man called Shyaam, who forged the Kuba
Kingdom, which we saw on Map 6, with the Bushong at its
heart and with himself as king. Prior to this period, there
were probably few differences between the Bushong and
the Lele; the differences emerged as a consequence of the
way Shyaam reorganized society to the east of the river. He
built a state and a pyramid of political institutions. These
were not just significantly more centralized than what came
before but also involved highly elaborate structures.
Shyaam and his successors created a bureaucracy to
raise taxes and a legal system and police force to
administer the law. Leaders were checked by councils,
which they had to consult with before making decisions.
There was even trial by jury, an apparently unique event in
sub-Saharan Africa prior to European colonialism.
Nevertheless, the centralized state that Shyaam
constructed was a tool of extraction and highly absolutist.
Nobody voted for him, and state policy was dictated from
the top, not by popular participation.
This political revolution introducing state centralization
and law and order in the Kuba country in turn led to an
economic revolution. Agriculture was reorganized and new
technologies were adopted to increase productivity. The
crops that had previously been the staples were replaced
by new, higher-yield ones from the Americas (in particular,
maize, cassava, and chili peppers). The intense mixedfarming cycle was introduced at this time, and the amount
of food produced per capita doubled. To adopt these crops
and reorganize the agricultural cycle, more hands were
needed in the fields. So the age of marriage was lowered
to twenty, which brought men into the agricultural labor force
at a younger age. The contrast with the Lele is stark. Their
men tended to marry at thirty-five and only then worked in
the fields. Until then, they dedicated their lives to fighting
and raiding.
The connection between the political and economic
revolution was simple. King Shyaam and those who
supported him wanted to extract taxes and wealth from the
Kuba, who had to produce a surplus above what they
consumed themselves. While Shyaam and his men did not
introduce inclusive institutions to the eastern bank of the
Kasai, some amount of economic prosperity is intrinsic to
extractive institutions that achieve some degree of state
centralization and impose law and order. Encouraging
economic activity was of course in the interest of Shyaam
and his men, as otherwise there would have been nothing
to extract. Just like Stalin, Shyaam created by command a
set of institutions that would generate the wealth necessary
to support this system. Compared to the utter absence of
law and order that reigned on the other bank of the Kasai,
this generated significant economic prosperity—even if
much of it was likely extracted by Shyaam and his elites.
But it was necessarily limited. Just as in the Soviet Union,
there was no creative destruction in the Kuba Kingdom and
no technological innovation after this initial change. This
situation was more or less unaltered by the time the
kingdom was first encountered by Belgian colonial officials
in the late nineteenth century.
KING SHYAAM’S ACHIEVEMENT illustrates how some limited
degree of economic success can be achieved through
extractive institutions. Creating such growth requires a
centralized state. To centralize the state, a political
revolution is often necessary. Once Shyaam created this
state, he could use its power to reorganize the economy
and boost agricultural productivity, which he could then tax.
Why was it that the Bushong, and not the Lele, had a
political revolution? Couldn’t the Lele have had their own
King Shyaam? What Shyaam accomplished was an
institutional innovation not tied in any deterministic way to
geography, culture, or ignorance. The Lele could have had
such a revolution and similarly transformed their institutions,
but they didn’t. Perhaps this is for reasons that we do not
understand, because of our limited knowledge of their
society today. Most likely it is because of the contingent
nature of history. The same contingency was probably at
work when some of the societies in the Middle East twelve
thousand years ago embarked upon an even more radical
set of institutional innovations leading to settled societies
and then to the domestication of plants and animals, as we
discuss next.
THE LONG SUMMER
About 15,000 BC, the Ice Age came to an end as the
Earth’s climate warmed up. Evidence from the Greenland
ice cores suggests that average temperatures rose by as
much as fifteen degrees Celsius in a short span of time.
This warming seems to have coincided with rapid
increases in human populations as the global warming led
to expanding animal populations and much greater
availability of wild plants and foods. This process was put
into rapid reverse at about 14,000 BC, by a period of
cooling known as the Younger Dryas, but after 9600 BC,
global temperatures rose again, by seven degrees Celsius
in less than a decade, and have since stayed high.
Archaeologist Brian Fagan calls it the Long Summer. The
warming-up of the climate was a huge critical juncture that
formed the background to the Neolithic Revolution, where
human societies made the transition to sedentary life,
farming, and herding. This and the rest of subsequent
human history have played out basking in this Long
Summer.
There is a fundamental difference between farming and
herding and hunting-gathering. The former is based on the
domestication of plant and animal species, with active
intervention in their life cycles to change genetics to make
those species more useful to humans. Domestication is a
technological change that enables humans to produce a lot
more food from the available plants and animals. The
domestication of maize, for example, began when humans
gathered teosinte, the wild crop that was maize’s ancestor.
Teosinte cobs are very small, barely a few centimeters
long. They are dwarfed by a cob of modern maize. Yet
gradually, by selecting the larger ears of teosinte, and
plants whose ears did not break but stayed on the stalk to
be harvested, humans created modern maize, a crop that
provides far more nourishment from the same piece of
land.
The earliest evidence of farming, herding, and the
domestication of plants and animals comes from the
Middle East, in particular from the area known as the Hilly
Flanks, which stretches from the south of modern-day
Israel, up through Palestine and the west bank of the River
Jordan, via Syria and into southeastern Turkey, northern
Iraq, and western Iran. Around 9500 BC the first domestic
plants, emmer and two-row barley, were found in Jericho on
the west bank of the River Jordan in Palestine; and emmer,
peas, and lentils, at Tell Aswad, farther north in Syria. Both
were sites of the so-called Natufian culture and both
supported large villages; the village of Jericho had a
population of possibly five hundred people by this time.
Why did the first farming villages happen here and not
elsewhere? Why was it the Natufians, and not other
peoples, who domesticated peas and lentils? Were they
lucky and just happened to be living where there were many
potential candidates for domestication? While this is true,
many other people were living among these species, but
they did not domesticate them. As we saw in chapter 2 in
Maps 4 and 5, research by geneticists and archaeologists
to pin down the distribution of the wild ancestors of modern
domesticated animals and plants reveals that many of
these ancestors were spread over very large areas,
millions of square kilometers. The wild ancestors of
domesticated animal species were spread throughout
Eurasia. Though the Hilly Flanks were particularly well
endowed in terms of wild crop species, even they were very
far from unique. It was not that the Natufians lived in an area
uniquely endowed with wild species that made them
special. It was that they were sedentary before they started
domesticating plants or animals. One piece of evidence
comes from gazelle teeth, which are composed of
cementum, a bony connective tissue that grows in layers.
During the spring and summer, when cementum’s growth is
most rapid, the layers are a different color from the layers
that form in the winter. By taking a slice through a tooth you
can see the color of the last layer created before the
gazelle died. Using this technique, you can determine if the
gazelle was killed in summer or winter. At Natufian sites,
one finds gazelles killed in all seasons, suggesting yearround residence. The village of Abu Hureyra, on the river
Euphrates, is one of the most intensively researched
Natufian settlements. For almost forty years archaeologists
have examined the layers of the village, which provides one
of the best documented examples of sedentary life before
and after the transition to farming. The settlement probably
began around 9500 BC, and the inhabitants continued their
hunter-gatherer lifestyle for another five hundred years
before switching to agriculture. Archaeologists estimate
that the population of the village prior to farming was
between one hundred and three hundred.
You can think of all sorts of reasons why a society might
find it advantageous to become sedentary. Moving about is
costly; children and old people have to be carried, and it is
impossible to store food for lean times when you are on the
move. Moreover, tools such as grinding stones and sickles
were useful for processing wild foods, but are heavy to
carry. There is evidence that even mobile hunter-gatherers
stored food in select locations such as caves. One
attraction of maize is that it stores very well, and this is a
key reason why it became so intensively cultivated
throughout the Americas. The ability to deal more
effectively with storage and accumulate food stocks must
have been a key incentive for adopting a sedentary way of
life.
While it might be collectively desirable to become
sedentary, this doesn’t mean that it will necessarily happen.
A mobile group of hunter-gatherers would have to agree to
do this, or someone would have to force them. Some
archaeologists have suggested that increasing population
density and declining living standards were key factors in
the emergence of sedentary life, forcing mobile people to
stay in one place. Yet the density of Natufian sites is no
greater than that of previous groups, so there does not
appear to be evidence of increasing population density.
Skeletal and dental evidence does not suggest
deteriorating health, either. For instance, food shortage
tends to create thin lines in people’s tooth enamel, a
condition called hypoplasia. These lines are in fact less
prevalent in Natufian people than in later farming people.
More important is that while sedentary life had pluses, it
also had minuses. Conflict resolution was probably much
harder for sedentary groups, since disagreements could be
resolved less easily by people or groups merely moving
away. Once people had built permanent buildings and had
more assets than they could carry, moving away was a
much less attractive option. So villages needed more
effective ways of resolving conflict and more elaborate
notions of property. Decisions would have to be made
about who had access to which piece of land close to the
village, or who got to pick fruit from which stand of trees
and fish in which part of the stream. Rules had to be
developed, and the institutions that made and enforced
rules had to be elaborated.
In order for sedentary life to emerge, it therefore seems
plausible that hunter-gatherers would have had to be forced
to settle down, and this would have to have been preceded
by an institutional innovation concentrating power in the
hands of a group that would become the political elite,
enforce property rights, maintain order, and also benefit
from their status by extracting resources from the rest of
society. In fact, a political revolution similar to that initiated
by King Shyaam, even if on a smaller scale, is likely to have
been the breakthrough that led to sedentary life.
The archaeological evidence indeed suggests that the
Natufians developed a complex society characterized by
hierarchy, order, and inequality—beginnings of what we
would recognize as extractive institutions—a long time
before they became farmers. One compelling piece of
evidence for such hierarchy and inequality comes from
Natufian graves. Some people were buried with large
amounts of obsidian and dentalium shells, which came
from the Mediterranean coast near Mount Carmel. Other
types of ornamentation include necklaces, garters, and
bracelets, which were made out of canine teeth and deer
phalanges as well as shells. Other people were buried
without any of these things. Shells and also obsidian were
traded, and control of this trade was quite likely a source of
power accumulation and inequality. Further evidence of
economic and political inequality comes from the Natufian
site of Ain Mallaha, just north of the Sea of Galilee. Amid a
group of about fifty round huts and many pits, clearly used
for storage, there is a large, intensively plastered building
close to a cleared central place. This building was almost
certainly the house of a chief. Among the burials at the site,
some are much more elaborate, and there is also evidence
of a skull cult, possibly indicating ancestor worship. Such
cults are widespread in Natufian sites, particularly Jericho.
The preponderance of evidence from Natufian sites
suggests that these were probably already societies with
elaborate institutions determining inheritance of elite status.
They engaged in trade with distant places and had nascent
forms of religion and political hierarchies.
The emergence of political elites most likely created the
transition first to sedentary life and then to farming. As the
Natufian sites show, sedentary life did not necessarily
mean farming and herding. People could settle down but
still make their living by hunting and gathering. After all, the
Long Summer made wild crops more bountiful, and hunting
and gathering was likely to have been more attractive. Most
people may have been quite satisfied with a subsistence
life based on hunting and gathering that did not require a lot
of effort. Even technological innovation doesn’t necessarily
lead to increased agricultural production. In fact, it is known
that a major technological innovation, the introduction of the
steel axe among the group of Australian Aboriginal peoples
known as Yir Yoront, led not to more intense production but
to more sleeping, because it allowed subsistence
requirements to be met more easily, with little incentive to
work for more.
The traditional, geography-based explanation for the
Neolithic Revolution—the centerpiece of Jared Diamond’s
argument, which we discussed in chapter 2—is that it was
driven by the fortuitous availability of many plant and animal
species that could easily be domesticated. This made
farming and herding attractive and induced sedentary life.
After societies became sedentary and started farming, they
began to develop political hierarchy, religion, and
significantly more complex institutions. Though widely
accepted, the evidence from the Natufians suggests that
this traditional explanation puts the cart before the horse.
Institutional changes occurred in societies quite a while
before they made the transition to farming and were
probably the cause both of the move to sedentarism, which
reinforced the institutional changes, and subsequently of
the Neolithic Revolution. This pattern is suggested not only
by the evidence from the Hilly Flanks, which is the area
most intensively studied, but also by the preponderance of
evidence from the Americas, sub-Saharan Africa, and East
Asia.
Certainly the transition to farming led to greater
agricultural productivity and enabled a significant
expansion of population. For instance, in sites such as
Jericho and Abu Hureyra, one sees that the early farming
village was much larger than the prefarming one. In general,
villages grew by between two and six times when the
transition took place. Moreover, many of the consequences
that people have traditionally argued as having flowed from
this transition undoubtedly happened. There was greater
occupational specialization and more rapid technological
progress, and probably the development of more complex
and possibly less egalitarian political institutions. But
whether this happened in a particular place was not
determined by the availability of plant and animal species.
Instead, it was a consequence of the society’s having
experienced the types of institutional, social, and political
innovations that would have allowed sedentary life and then
farming to emerge.
Though the Long Summer and the presence of crop and
animal species allowed this to happen, it did not determine
where or when exactly, after the climate had warmed up, it
would happen. Rather, this was determined by the
interaction of a critical juncture, the Long Summer, with
small but important institutional differences that mattered.
As the climate warmed up, some societies, such as the
Natufians, developed elements of centralized institutions
and hierarchy, though these were on a very small scale
relative to those of modern nation-states. Like the Bushong
under Shyaam, societies reorganized to take advantage of
the greater opportunities created by the glut of wild plants
and animals, and it was no doubt the political elites who
were the main beneficiaries of these new opportunities and
of the political centralization process. Other places that had
only slightly different institutions did not permit their political
elites to take similar advantage of this juncture and lagged
behind the process of political centralization and the
creation of settled, agricultural, and more complex
societies. This paved the way to a subsequent divergence
of exactly the type we have seen before. Once these
differences emerged, they spread to some places but not
to others. For example, farming spread into Europe from
the Middle East starting around 6500 BC, mostly as a
consequence of the migration of farmers. In Europe,
institutions drifted away from parts of the world, such as
Africa, where initial institutions had been different and
where the innovations set in motion by the Long Summer in
the Middle East happened only much later, and even then in
a different form.
THE INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATIONS of the Natufians, though they
did most likely underpin the Neolithic Revolution, did not
leave a simple legacy in world history and did not lead
inexorably to the long-run prosperity of their homelands in
modern Israel, Palestine, and Syria. Syria and Palestine
are relatively poor parts of the modern world, and the
prosperity of Israel was largely imported by the settlement
of Jewish people after the Second World War and their
high levels of education and easy access to advanced
technologies. The early growth of the Natufians did not
become sustained for the same reason that Soviet growth
fizzled out. Though highly significant, even revolutionary for
its time, this was growth under extractive institutions. For
the Natufian society it was also likely that this type of growth
created deep conflicts over who would control institutions
and the extraction they enabled. For every elite benefiting
from extraction there is a non-elite who would love to
replace him. Sometimes infighting simply replaces one
elite with another. Sometimes it destroys the whole
extractive society, unleashing a process of state and
societal collapse, as the spectacular civilization that Maya
city-states built more than one thousand years ago
experienced.
THE UNSTABLE EXTRACTION
Farming emerged independently in several places around
the world. In what is now modern Mexico, societies formed
that established states and settlements, and transitioned to
agriculture. As with the Natufians in the Middle East, they
also achieved some degree of economic growth. The Maya
city-states in the area of southern Mexico, Belize,
Guatemala, and Western Honduras in fact built a fairly
sophisticated civilization under their own brand of extractive
institutions. The Maya experience illustrates not only the
possibility of growth under extractive institutions but also
another fundamental limit to this type of growth: the political
instability that emerges and ultimately leads to collapse of
both society and state as different groups and people fight
to become the extractors.
Maya cities first began to develop around 500 BC. These
early cities eventually failed, sometime in the first century
AD. A new political model then emerged, creating the
foundation for the Classic Era, between AD 250 and 900.
This period marked the full flowering of Maya culture and
civilization. But this more sophisticated civilization would
also collapse in the course of the next six hundred years. By
the time the Spanish conquistadors arrived in the early
sixteenth century, the great temples and palaces of such
Maya sites as Tikal, Palenque, and Calakmul had receded
into the forest, not to be rediscovered until the nineteenth
century.
The Maya cities never unified into an empire, though
some cities were subservient to others, and they often
appear to have cooperated, particularly in warfare. The
main connection between the region’s city-states, fifty of
which we can recognize by their own glyphs, is that their
people spoke around thirty-one different but closely related
Mayan languages. The Mayas developed a writing system,
and there are at least fifteen thousand remaining
inscriptions describing many aspects of elite life, culture,
and religion. They also had a sophisticated calendar for
recording dates known as the Long Count. It was very much
like our own calendar in that it counted the unfolding of
years from a fixed date and was used by all Maya cities.
The Long Count began in 3114 BC, though we do not know
what significance the Mayas attached to this date, which
long precedes the emergence of anything resembling Maya
society.
The Mayas were skilled builders who independently
invented cement. Their buildings and their inscriptions
provide vital information on the trajectories of the Maya
cities, as they often recorded events dated according to the
Long Count. Looking across all the Maya cities,
archaeologists can thus count how many buildings were
finished in particular years. Around AD 500 there are few
dated monuments. For example, the Long Count date
corresponding to AD 514 recorded just ten. There was then
a steady increase, reaching twenty by AD 672 and forty by
the middle of the eighth century. After this the number of
dated monuments collapses. By the ninth century, it is down
to ten per year, and by the tenth century, to zero. These
dated inscriptions give us a clear picture of the expansion
of Maya cities and their subsequent contraction from the
late eighth century.
This analysis of dates can be complemented by
examining the lists of kings the Mayas recorded. At the
Maya city of Copán, now in western Honduras, there is a
famous monument known as Altar Q. Altar Q records the
names of all the kings, starting from the founder of the
dynasty K’inich Yax K’uk’ Mo’, or “King Green-Sun First
Quetzal Macaw,” named after not just the sun but also two
of the exotic birds of the Central American forest whose
feathers were greatly valued by the Mayas. K’inich Yax
K’uk’ Mo’ came to power in Copán in AD 426, which we
know from the Long Count date on Altar Q. He founded a
dynasty that would reign for four hundred years. Some of
K’inich Yax’s successors had equally graphic names. The
thirteenth ruler’s glyph translates as “18 Rabbit,” who was
followed by “Smoke Monkey” and then “Smoke Shell,” who
died in AD 763. The last name on the altar is King Yax Pasaj
Chan Yoaat, or “First Dawned Sky Lightening God,” who
was the sixteenth ruler of this line and assumed the throne
at the death of Smoke Shell. After him we know of only one
more king, Ukit Took (“Patron of Flint”), from a fragment of
an altar. After Yax Pasaj, the buildings and inscriptions
stopped, and it seems that the dynasty was shortly
overthrown. Ukit Took was probably not even the real
claimant to the throne but a pretender.
There is a final way of looking at this evidence at Copán,
one developed by the archaeologists AnnCorinne Freter,
Nancy Gonlin, and David Webster. These researchers
mapped the rise and fall of Copán by examining the spread
of the settlement in the Copán Valley over a period of 850
years, from AD 400 to AD 1250, using a technique called
obsidian hydration, which calculates the water content of
obsidian on the date it was mined. Once mined, the water
content falls at a known rate, allowing archaeologists to
calculate the date a piece of obsidian was mined. Freter,
Gonlin, and Webster were then able to map where pieces
of dated obsidian were found in the Copán Valley and trace
how the city expanded and then contracted. Since it is
possible to make a reasonable guess about the number of
houses and buildings in a particular area, the total
population of the city can be estimated. In the period AD
400–449, the population was negligible, estimated at about
six hundred people. It rose steadily to a peak of twentyeight thousand in AD 750–799. Though this does not
appear large by contemporary urban standards, it was
massive for that period; these numbers imply that in this
period, Copán had a larger population than London or
Paris. Other Maya cities, such as Tikal and Calakmul, were
undoubtedly much larger. In line with the evidence from the
Long Count dates, AD 800 was the population peak for
Copán. After this it began to decline, and by AD 900 it had
fallen to around fifteen thousand people. From there the fall
continued, and by AD 1200 the population had returned to
what it was eight hundred years previously.
The basis for the economic development of the Maya
Classical Era was the same as that for the Bushong and
the Natufians: the creation of extractive institutions with
some degree of state centralization. These institutions had
several key elements. Around AD 100, in the city of Tikal in
Guatemala, there emerged a new type of dynastic
kingdom. A ruling class based on the ajaw (lord or ruler)
took root with a king called the k’uhul ajaw (divine lord) and,
underneath him, a hierarchy of aristocrats. The divine lord
organized the society with the cooperation of these elites
and also communicated with the gods. As far as we know,
this new set of political institutions did not allow for any sort
of popular participation, but it did bring stability. The k’uhul
ajaw raised tribute from farmers and organized labor to
build the great monuments, and the coalescence of these
institutions created the basis for an impressive economic
expansion. The Maya’s economy was based on extensive
occupational specialization, with skilled potters, weavers,
woodworkers, and tool and ornament makers. They also
traded obsidian, jaguar pelts, marine shells, cacao, salt,
and feathers among themselves and other polities over
long distances in Mexico. They probably had money, too,
and like the Aztecs, used cacao beans for currency.
The way in which the Maya Classical Era was founded
on the creation of extractive political institutions was very
similar to the situation among the Bushong, with Yax Ehb’
Xook at Tikal playing a role similar to that of King Shyaam.
The new political institutions led to a significant increase in
economic prosperity, much of which was then extracted by
the new elite based around the k’uhul ajaw. Once this
system had consolidated, by around AD 300, there was little
further technological change, however. Though there is
some evidence of improved irrigation and water
management techniques, agricultural technology was
rudimentary and appears not to have changed. Building
and artistic techniques became much more sophisticated
over time, but in total there was little innovation.
There was no creative destruction. But there were other
forms of destruction as the wealth that the extractive
institutions created for the k’uhul ajaw and the Maya elite
led to constant warfare, which worsened over time. The
sequence of conflicts is recorded in the Maya inscriptions,
with special glyphs indicating that a war took place at a
particular date in the Long Count. The planet Venus was
the celestial patron of war, and the Mayas regarded some
phases of the planet’s orbit as particularly auspicious for
waging war. The glyph that indicated warfare, known as
“star wars” by archaeologists, shows a star showering the
earth with a liquid that could be water or blood. The
inscriptions also reveal patterns of alliance and
competition. There were long contests for power between
the larger states, such as Tikal, Calakmul, Copán, and
Palenque, and these subjugated smaller states into a
vassal status. Evidence for this comes from glyphs marking
royal accessions. During this period, they start indicating
that the smaller states were now being dominated by
another, outside ruler.
Map 10 (this page) shows the main Maya cities and the
various patterns of contact between them as reconstructed
by the archaeologists Nikolai Grube and Simon Martin.
These patterns indicate that though the large cities such as
Calakmul, Dos Pilas, Piedras Negras, and Yaxchilan had
extensive diplomatic contacts, some were often dominated
by others and they also fought each other.
The overwhelming fact about the Maya collapse is that it
coincides with the overthrow of the political model based
on the k’uhul ajaw. We saw in Copán that after Yax Pasaj’s
death in AD 810 there were no more kings. At around this
time the royal palaces were abandoned. Twenty miles to
the north of Copán, in the city of Quiriguá, the last king,
Jade Sky, ascended to the throne between AD 795 and
800. The last dated monument is from AD 810 by the Long
Count, the same year that Yax Pasaj died. The city was
abandoned soon after. Throughout the Maya area the story
is the same; the political institutions that had provided the
context for the expansion of trade, agriculture, and
population vanished. Royal courts did not function,
monuments and temples were not carved, and palaces
were emptied. As political and social institutions unraveled,
reversing the process of state centralization, the economy
contracted and the population fell.
In some cases the major centers collapsed from
widespread violence. The Petexbatun region of Guatemala
—where the great temples were subsequently pulled down
and the stone used to build extensive defensive walls—
provides one vivid example. As we’ll see in the next
chapter, it was very similar to what happened in the later
Roman Empire. Later, even in places such as Copán,
where there are fewer signs of violence at the time of the
collapse, many monuments were defaced or destroyed. In
some places the elite remained even after the initial
overthrow of the k’uhul ajaw. In Copán there is evidence of
the elite continuing to erect new buildings for at least
another two hundred years before they also disappeared.
Elsewhere elites seem to have gone at the same time as
the divine lord.
Existing archaeological evidence does not allow us to
reach a definitive conclusion about why the k’uhul ajaw and
elites surrounding him were overthrown and the institutions
that had created the Maya Classical Era collapsed. We
know this took place in the context of intensified inter-city
warfare, and it seems likely that opposition and rebellion
within the cities, perhaps led by different factions of the
elite, overthrew the institution.
Though the extractive institutions that the Mayas created
produced sufficient wealth for the cities to flourish and the
elite to become wealthy and generate great art and
monumental buildings, the system was not stable. The
extractive institutions upon which this narrow elite ruled
created extensive inequality, and thus the potential for
infighting between those who could benefit from the wealth
extracted from the people. This conflict ultimately led to the
undoing of the Maya civilization.
WHAT GOES WRONG?
Extractive institutions are so common in history because
they have a powerful logic: they can generate some limited
prosperity while at the same time distributing it into the
hands of a small elite. For this growth to happen, there must
be political centralization. Once this is in place, the state—
or the elite controlling the state—typically has incentives to
invest and generate wealth, encourage others to invest so
that the state can extract resources from them, and even
mimic some of the processes that would normally be set in
motion by inclusive economic institutions and markets. In
the Caribbean plantation economies, extractive institutions
took the form of the elite using coercion to force slaves to
produce sugar. In the Soviet Union, they took the form of the
Communist Party reallocating resources from agriculture to
industry and structuring some sort of incentives for
managers and workers. As we have seen, such incentives
were undermined by the nature of the system.
The potential for creating extractive growth gives an
impetus to political centralization and is the reason why
King Shyaam wished to create the Kuba Kingdom, and
likely accounts for why the Natufians in the Middle East set
up a primitive form of law and order, hierarchy, and
extractive institutions that would ultimately lead to the
Neolithic Revolution. Similar processes also likely
underpinned the emergence of settled societies and the
transition to agriculture in the Americas, and can be seen in
the sophisticated civilization that the Mayas built on
foundations laid by highly extractive institutions coercing
many for the benefit of their narrow elites.
The growth generated by extractive institutions is very
different in nature from growth created under inclusive
institutions, however. Most important, it is not sustainable.
By their very nature, extractive institutions do not foster
creative destruction and generate at best only a limited
amount of technological progress. The growth they
engender thus lasts for only so long. The Soviet experience
gives a vivid illustration of this limit. Soviet Russia
generated rapid growth as it caught up rapidly with some of
the advanced technologies in the world, and resources
were allocated out of the highly inefficient agricultural sector
and into industry. But ultimately the incentives faced in
every sector, from agriculture to industry, could not
stimulate technological progress. This took place in only a
few pockets where resources were being poured and
where innovation was strongly rewarded because of its role
in the competition with the West. Soviet growth, however
rapid it was, was bound to be relatively short lived, and it
was already running out of steam by the 1970s.
Lack of creative destruction and innovation is not the only
reason why there are severe limits to growth under
extractive institutions. The history of the Maya city-states
illustrates a more ominous and, alas, more common end,
again implied by the internal logic of extractive institutions.
As these institutions create significant gains for the elite,
there will be strong incentives for others to fight to replace
the current elite. Infighting and instability are thus inherent
features of extractive institutions, and they not only create
further inefficiencies but also often reverse any political
centralization, sometimes even leading to the total
breakdown of law and order and descent into chaos, as the
Maya city-states experienced following their relative
success during their Classical Era.
Though inherently limited, growth under extractive
institutions may nonetheless appear spectacular when it’s
in motion. Many in the Soviet Union and many more in the
Western world were awestruck by Soviet growth in the
1920s, ’30s, ’40s, ’50s, ’60s, and even as late as the ’70s,
in the same way that they are mesmerized by the
breakneck pace of economic growth in China today. But as
we will discuss in greater detail in chapter 15, China under
the rule of the Communist Party is another example of
society experiencing growth under extractive institutions
and is similarly unlikely to generate sustained growth unless
it undergoes a fundamental political transformation toward
inclusive political institutions.
6.
DRIFTING APART
HOW VENICE BECAME A MUSEUM
THE GROUP OF ISLANDS that form Venice lie at the far north
of the Adriatic Sea. In the Middle Ages, Venice was
possibly the richest place in the world, with the most
advanced set of inclusive economic institutions
underpinned by nascent political inclusiveness. It gained its
independence in AD 810, at what turned out to be a
fortuitous time. The economy of Europe was recovering
from the decline it had suffered as the Roman Empire
collapsed, and kings such as Charlemagne were
reconstituting strong central political power. This led to
stability, greater security, and an expansion of trade, which
Venice was in a unique position to take advantage of. It
was a nation of seafarers, placed right in the middle of the
Mediterranean. From the East came spices, Byzantinemanufactured goods, and slaves. Venice became rich. By
1050, when Venice had already been expanding
economically for at least a century, it had a population of
45,000 people. This increased by more than 50 percent, to
70,000, by 1200. By 1330 the population had again
increased by another 50 percent, to 110,000; Venice was
then as big as Paris, and probably three times the size of
London.
One of the key bases for the economic expansion of
Venice was a series of contractual innovations making
economic institutions much more inclusive. The most
famous was the commenda, a rudimentary type of joint
stock company, which formed only for the duration of a
single trading mission. A commenda involved two partners,
a “sedentary” one who stayed in Venice and one who
traveled. The sedentary partner put capital into the venture,
while the traveling partner accompanied the cargo.
Typically, the sedentary partner put in the lion’s share of the
capital. Young entrepreneurs who did not have wealth
themselves could then get into the trading business by
traveling with the merchandise. It was a key channel of
upward social mobility. Any losses in the voyage were
shared according to the amount of capital the partners had
put in. If the voyage made money, profits were based on
two types of commenda contracts. If the commenda was
unilateral, then the sedentary merchant provided 100
percent of the capital and received 75 percent of the
profits. If it was bilateral, the sedentary merchant provided
67 percent of the capital and received 50 percent of the
profits. Studying official documents, one sees how powerful
a force the commenda was in fostering upward social
mobility: these documents are full of new names, people
who had previously not been among the Venetian elite. In
government documents of AD 960, 971, and 982, the
number of new names comprise 69 percent, 81 percent,
and 65 percent, respectively, of those recorded.
This economic inclusiveness and the rise of new families
through trade forced the political system to become even
more open. The doge, who governed Venice, was selected
for life by the General Assembly. Though a general
gathering of all citizens, in practice the General Assembly
was dominated by a core group of powerful families.
Though the doge was very powerful, his power was
gradually reduced over time by changes in political
institutions. After 1032 the doge was elected along with a
newly created Ducal Council, whose job was also to ensure
that the doge did not acquire absolute power. The first
doge hemmed in by this council, Domenico Flabianico,
was a wealthy silk merchant from a family that had not
previously held high office. This institutional change was
followed by a huge expansion of Venetian mercantile and
naval power. In 1082 Venice was granted extensive trade
privileges in Constantinople, and a Venetian Quarter was
created in that city. It soon housed ten thousand Venetians.
Here we see inclusive economic and political institutions
beginning to work in tandem.
The economic expansion of Venice, which created more
pressure for political change, exploded after the changes in
political and economic institutions that followed the murder
of the doge in 1171. The first important innovation was the
creation of a Great Council, which was to be the ultimate
source of political power in Venice from this point on. The
council was made up of officeholders of the Venetian state,
such as judges, and was dominated by aristocrats. In
addition to these officeholders, each year a hundred new
members were nominated to the council by a nominating
committee whose four members were chosen by lot from
the existing council. The council also subsequently chose
the members for two subcouncils, the Senate and the
Council of Forty, which had various legislative and
executive tasks. The Great Council also chose the Ducal
Council, which was expanded from two to six members.
The second innovation was the creation of yet another
council, chosen by the Great Council by lot, to nominate the
doge. Though the choice had to be ratified by the General
Assembly, since they nominated only one person, this
effectively gave the choice of doge to the council. The third
innovation was that a new doge had to swear an oath of
office that circumscribed ducal power. Over time these
constraints were continually expanded so that subsequent
doges had to obey magistrates, then have all their
decisions approved by the Ducal Council. The Ducal
Council also took on the role of ensuring that the doge
obeyed all decisions of the Great Council.
These political reforms led to a further series of
institutional innovations: in law, the creation of independent
magistrates, courts, a court of appeals, and new private
contract and bankruptcy laws. These new Venetian
economic institutions allowed the creation of new legal
business forms and new types of contracts. There was
rapid financial innovation, and we see the beginnings of
modern banking around this time in Venice. The dynamic
moving Venice toward fully inclusive institutions looked
unstoppable.
But there was a tension in all this. Economic growth
supported by the inclusive Venetian institutions was
accompanied by creative destruction. Each new wave of
enterprising young men who became rich via the
commenda or other similar economic institutions tended to
reduce the profits and economic success of established
elites. And they did not just reduce their profits; they also
challenged their political power. Thus there was always a
temptation, if they could get away with it, for the existing
elites sitting in the Great Council to close down the system
to these new people.
At the Great Council’s inception, membership was
determined each year. As we saw, at the end of the year,
four electors were randomly chosen to nominate a hundred
members for the next year, who were automatically
selected. On October 3, 1286, a proposal was made to the
Great Council that the rules be amended so that
nominations had to be confirmed by a majority in the
Council of Forty, which was tightly controlled by elite
families. This would have given this elite veto power over
new nominations to the council, something they previously
had not had. The proposal was defeated. On October 5,
1286, another proposal was put forth; this time it passed.
From then on there was to be automatic confirmation of a
person if his fathers and grandfathers had served on the
council. Otherwise, confirmation was required by the Ducal
Council. On October 17 another change in the rules was
passed stipulating that an appointment to the Great Council
must be approved by the Council of Forty, the doge, and
the Ducal Council.
The debates and constitutional amendments of 1286
presaged La Serrata (“The Closure”) of Venice. In February
1297, it was decided that if you had been a member of the
Great Council in the previous four years, you received
automatic nomination and approval. New nominations now
had to be approved by the Council of Forty, but with only
twelve votes. After September 11, 1298, current members
and their families no longer needed confirmation. The
Great Council was now effectively sealed to outsiders, and
the initial incumbents had become a hereditary aristocracy.
The seal on this came in 1315, with the Libro d’Oro, or
“Gold Book,” which was an official registry of the Venetian
nobility.
Those outside this nascent nobility did not let their
powers erode without a struggle. Political tensions
mounted steadily in Venice between 1297 and 1315. The
Great Council partially responded by making itself bigger.
In an attempt to co-opt its most vocal opponents, it grew
from 450 to 1,500. This expansion was complemented by
repression. A police force was introduced for the first time
in 1310, and there was a steady growth in domestic
coercion, undoubtedly as a way of solidifying the new
political order.
Having implemented a political Serrata, the Great
Council then moved to adopt an economic Serrata. The
switch toward extractive political institutions was now being
followed by a move toward extractive economic institutions.
Most important, they banned the use of commenda
contracts, one of the great institutional innovations that had
made Venice rich. This shouldn’t be a surprise: the
commenda benefited new merchants, and now the
established elite was trying to exclude them. This was just
one step toward more extractive economic institutions.
Another step came when, starting in 1314, the Venetian
state began to take over and nationalize trade. It organized
state galleys to engage in trade and, from 1324 on, began
to charge individuals high levels of taxes if they wanted to
engage in trade. Long-distance trade became the preserve
of the nobility. This was the beginning of the end of
Venetian prosperity. With the main lines of business
monopolized by the increasingly narrow elite, the decline
was under way. Venice appeared to have been on the brink
of becoming the world’s first inclusive society, but it fell to a
coup. Political and economic institutions became more
extractive, and Venice began to experience economic
decline. By 1500 the population had shrunk to one hundred
thousand. Between 1650 and 1800, when the population of
Europe rapidly expanded, that of Venice contracted.
Today the only economy Venice has, apart from a bit of
fishing, is tourism. Instead of pioneering trade routes and
economic institutions, Venetians make pizza and ice
cream and blow colored glass for hordes of foreigners. The
tourists come to see the pre-Serrata wonders of Venice,
such as the Doge’s Palace and the lions of St. Mark’s
Cathedral, which were looted from Byzantium when Venice
ruled the Mediterranean. Venice went from economic
powerhouse to museum.
IN THIS CHAPTER we focus on the historical development of
institutions in different parts of the world and explain why
they evolved in different ways. We saw in chapter 4 how the
institutions of Western Europe diverged from those in
Eastern Europe and then how those of England diverged
from those in the rest of Western Europe. This was a
consequence of small institutional differences, mostly
resulting from institutional drift interacting with critical
junctures. It might then be tempting to think that these
institutional differences are the tip of a deep historical
iceberg where under the waterline we find English and
European institutions inexorably drifting away from those
elsewhere, based on historical events dating back
millennia. The rest, as they say, is history.
Except that it isn’t, for two reasons. First, moves toward
inclusive institutions, as our account of Venice shows, can
be reversed. Venice became prosperous. But its political
and economic institutions were overthrown, and that
prosperity went into reverse. Today Venice is rich only
because people who make their income elsewhere choose
to spend it there admiring the glory of its past. The fact that
inclusive institutions can go into reverse shows that there is
no simple cumulative process of institutional improvement.
Second, small institutional differences that play a crucial
role during critical junctures are by their nature ephemeral.
Because they are small, they can be reversed, then can
reemerge and be reversed again. We will see in this
chapter that, in contrast with what one would expect from
the geography or culture theories, England, where the
decisive step toward inclusive institutions would take place
in the seventeenth century, was a backwater, not only in the
millennia following the Neolithic Revolution in the Middle
East but also at the beginning of the Middle Ages, following
the fall of the Western Roman Empire. The British Isles
were marginal to the Roman Empire, certainly of less
importance than continental Western Europe, North Africa,
the Balkans, Constantinople, or the Middle East. When the
Western Roman Empire collapsed in the fifth century AD,
Britain suffered the most complete decline. But the political
revolutions that would ultimately bring the Industrial
Revolution would take place not in Italy, Turkey, or even
western continental Europe, but in the British Isles.
In understanding the path to England’s Industrial
Revolution and the countries that followed it, Rome’s legacy
is nonetheless important for several reasons. First, Rome,
like Venice, underwent major early institutional innovations.
As in Venice, Rome’s initial economic success was based
on inclusive institutions—at least by the standards of their
time. As in Venice, these institutions became decidedly
more extractive over time. With Rome, this was a
consequence of the change from the Republic (510 BC–49
BC) to the Empire (49 BC–AD 476). Even though during the
Republican period Rome built an impressive empire, and
long-distance trade and transport flourished, much of the
Roman economy was based on extraction. The transition
from republic to empire increased extraction and ultimately
led to the kind of infighting, instability, and collapse that we
saw with the Maya city-states.
Second and more important, we will see that Western
Europe’s subsequent institutional development, though it
was not a direct inheritance of Rome, was a consequence
of critical junctures that were common across the region in
the wake of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.
These critical junctures had little parallel in other parts of the
world, such as Africa, Asia, or the Americas, though we will
also show via the history of Ethiopia that when other places
did experience similar critical junctures, they sometimes
reacted in ways that were remarkably similar. Roman
decline led to feudalism, which, as a by-product, caused
slavery to wither away, brought into existence cities that
were outside the sphere of influence of monarchs and
aristocrats, and in the process created a set of institutions
where the political powers of rulers were weakened. It was
upon this feudal foundation that the Black Death would
create havoc and further strengthen independent cities and
peasants at the expense of monarchs, aristocrats, and
large landowners. And it was on this canvas that the
opportunities created by the Atlantic trade would play out.
Many parts of the world did not undergo these changes,
and in consequence drifted apart.
ROMAN VIRTUES …
Roman plebeian tribune Tiberius Gracchus was clubbed to
death in 133 BC by Roman senators and his body was
thrown unceremoniously into the Tiber. His murderers were
aristocrats like Tiberius himself, and the assassination was
masterminded by his cousin Publius Cornelius Scipio
Nasica. Tiberius Gracchus had an impeccable aristocratic
pedigree as a descendant of some of the more illustrious
leaders of the Roman Republic, including Lucius Aemilius
Paullus, hero of the Illyrian and Second Punic wars, and
Scipio Africanus, the general who defeated Hannibal in the
Second Punic War. Why had the powerful senators of his
day, even his cousin, turned against him?
The answer tells us much about the tensions in the
Roman Republic and the causes of its subsequent decline.
What pitted Tiberius against these powerful senators was
his willingness to stand against them in a crucial question
of the day: the allocation of land and the rights of plebeians,
common Roman citizens.
By the time of Tiberius Gracchus, Rome was a wellestablished republic. Its political institutions and the virtues
of Roman citizen-soldiers—as captured by Jacques-Louis
David’s famous painting Oath of the Horatii, which shows
the sons swearing to their fathers that they will defend the
Roman Republic to their death—are still seen by many
historians as the foundation of the republic’s success.
Roman citizens created the republic by overthrowing their
king, Lucius Tarquinius Superbus, known as Tarquin the
Proud, around 510 BC. The republic cleverly designed
political institutions with many inclusive elements. It was
governed by magistrates elected for a year. That the office
of magistrate was elected, annually, and held by multiple
people at the same time reduced the ability of any one
person to consolidate or exploit his power. The republic’s
institutions contained a system of checks and balances that
distributed power fairly widely. This was so even if not all
citizens had equal representation, as voting was indirect.
There was also a large number of slaves crucial for
production in much of Italy, making up perhaps one-third of
the population. Slaves of course had no rights, let alone
political representation.
All the same, as in Venice, Roman political institutions
had pluralistic elements. The plebeians had their own
assembly, which could elect the plebeian tribune, who had
the power to veto actions by the magistrates, call the
Plebeian Assembly, and propose legislation. It was the
plebeians who put Tiberius Gracchus in power in 133 BC.
Their power had been forged by “secession,” a form of
strike by plebeians, particularly soldiers, who would
withdraw to a hill outside the city and refuse to cooperate
with the magistrates until their complaints were dealt with.
This threat was of course particularly important during a
time of war. It was supposedly during such a secession in
the fifth century BC that citizens gained the right to elect their
tribune and enact laws that would govern their community.
Their political and legal protection, even if limited by our
current standards, created economic opportunities for
citizens and some degree of inclusivity in economic
institutions. As a result, trade throughout the Mediterranean
flourished under the Roman Republic. Archaeological
evidence suggests that while the majority of both citizens
and slaves lived not much above subsistence level, many
Romans, including some common citizens, achieved high
incomes, with access to public services such as a city
sewage system and street lighting.
Moreover, there is evidence that there was also some
economic growth under the Roman Republic. We can track
the economic fortunes of the Romans from shipwrecks. The
empire the Romans built was in a sense a web of port
cities—from Athens, Antioch, and Alexandria in the east;
via Rome, Carthage, and Cadiz; all the way to London in
the far west. As Roman territories expanded, so did trade
and shipping, which can be traced from shipwrecks found
by archaeologists on the floor of the Mediterranean. These
wrecks can be dated in many ways. Often the ships carried
amphorae full of wine or olive oil, being transported from
Italy to Gaul, or Spanish olive oil to be sold or distributed for
free in Rome. Amphorae, sealed vessels made of clay,
often contained information on who had made them and
when. Just near the river Tiber in Rome is a small hill,
Monte Testaccio, also known as Monte dei Cocci (“Pottery
Mountain”), made up of approximately fifty-three million
amphorae. When the amphorae were unloaded from ships,
they were discarded, over the centuries creating a huge hill.
Other goods on the ships and the ship itself can
sometimes be dated using radiocarbon dating, a powerful
technique used by archaeologists to date the age of
organic remains. Plants create energy by photosynthesis,
which uses the energy from the sun to convert carbon
dioxide into sugars. As they do this, plants incorporate a
quantity of a naturally occurring radioisotope, carbon-14.
After plants die, the carbon-14 deteriorates due to
radioactive decay. When archaeologists find a shipwreck,
they can date the ship’s wood by comparing the remaining
carbon-14 fraction in it to that expected from atmospheric
carbon-14. This gives an estimate of when the tree was cut
down. Only about 20 shipwrecks have been dated to as
long ago as 500 BC. These were probably not Roman
ships, and could well have been Carthaginian, for example.
But then the number of Roman shipwrecks increases
rapidly. Around the time of the birth of Christ, they reached
a peak of 180.
Shipwrecks are a powerful way of tracing the economic
contours of the Roman Republic, and they do show
evidence of some economic growth, but they have to be
kept in perspective. Probably two-thirds of the contents of
the ships were the property of the Roman state, taxes and
tribute being brought back from the provinces to Rome, or
grain and olive oil from North Africa to be handed out free
to the citizens of the city. It is these fruits of extraction that
mostly constructed Monte Testaccio.
Another fascinating way to find evidence of economic
growth is from the Greenland Ice Core Project. As
snowflakes fall, they pick up small quantities of pollution in
the atmosphere, particularly the metals lead, silver, and
copper. The snow freezes and piles up on top of the snow
that fell in previous years. This process has been going on
for millennia, and provides an unrivaled opportunity for
scientists to understand the extent of atmospheric pollution
thousands of years ago. In 1990–1992 the Greenland Ice
Core Project drilled down through 3,030 meters of ice
covering about 250,000 years of human history. One of the
major findings of this project, and others preceding it, was
that there was a distinct increase in atmospheric pollutants
starting around 500 BC. Atmospheric quantities of lead,
silver, and copper then increased steadily, reaching a peak
in the first century AD. Remarkably, this atmospheric
quantity of lead is reached again only in the thirteenth
century. These findings show how intense, compared with
what came before and after, Roman mining was. This
upsurge in mining clearly indicates economic expansion.
But Roman growth was unsustainable, occurring under
institutions that were partially inclusive and partially
extractive. Though Roman citizens had political and
economic rights, slavery was widespread and very
extractive, and the elite, the senatorial class, dominated
both the economy and politics. Despite the presence of the
Plebeian Assembly and plebeian tribute, for example, real
power rested with the Senate, whose members came from
the large landowners constituting the senatorial class.
According to the Roman historian Livy, the Senate was
created by Rome’s first king, Romulus, and consisted of
one hundred men. Their descendants made up the
senatorial class, though new blood was also added. The
distribution of land was very unequal and most likely
became more so by the second century BC. This was at the
root of the problems that Tiberius Gracchus brought to the
fore as tribune.
As its expansion throughout the Mediterranean
continued, Rome experienced an influx of great riches. But
this bounty was captured mostly by a few wealthy families
of senatorial rank, and inequality between rich and poor
increased. Senators owed their wealth not only to their
control of the lucrative provinces but also to their very large
estates throughout Italy. These estates were manned by
gangs of slaves, often captured in the wars that Rome
fought. But where the land for these estates came from was
equally significant. Rome’s armies during the Republic
consisted of citizen-soldiers who were small landowners,
first in Rome and later in other parts of Italy. Traditionally
they fought in the army when necessary and then returned
to their plots. As Rome expanded and the campaigns got
longer, this model ceased to work. Soldiers were away
from their plots for years at a time, and many landholdings
fell into disuse. The soldiers’ families sometimes found
themselves under mountains of debt and on the brink of
starvation. Many of the plots were therefore gradually
abandoned, and absorbed by the estates of the senators.
As the senatorial class got richer and richer, the large mass
of landless citizens gathered in Rome, often after being
decommissioned from the army. With no land to return to,
they sought work in Rome. By the late second century BC,
the situation had reached a dangerous boiling point, both
because the gap between rich and poor had widened to
unprecedented levels and because there were hordes of
discontented citizens in Rome ready to rebel in response to
these injustices and turn against the Roman aristocracy.
But political power rested with the rich landowners of the
senatorial class, who were the beneficiaries of the changes
that had gone on over the last two centuries. Most had no
intention of changing the system that had served them so
well.
According to the Roman historian Plutarch, Tiberius
Gracchus, when traveling through Etruria, a region in what
is now central Italy, became aware of the hardship that
families of citizen-soldiers were suffering. Whether
because of this experience or because of other frictions
with the powerful senators of his time, he would soon
embark upon a daring plan to change land allocation in
Italy. He stood for plebeian tribune in 133 BC, then used his
office to propose land reform: a commission would
investigate whether public lands were being illegally
occupied and would redistribute land in excess of the legal
limit of three hundred acres to landless Roman citizens.
The three-hundred-acre limit was in fact part of an old law,
though ignored and not implemented for centuries. Tiberius
Gracchus’s proposal sent shockwaves through the
senatorial class, who were able to block implementation of
his reforms for a while. When Tiberius managed to use the
power of the mob supporting him to remove another tribune
who threatened to veto his land reform, his proposed
commission was finally founded. The Senate, though,
prevented implementation by starving the commission of
funds.
Things came to a head when Tiberius Gracchus claimed
for his land reform commission the funds left by the king of
the Greek city Pergamum to the Roman people. He also
attempted to stand for tribune a second time, partly
because he was afraid of persecution by the Senate after
he stepped down. This gave the senators the pretext to
charge that Tiberius was trying to declare himself king. He
and his supporters were attacked, and many were killed.
Tiberius Gracchus himself was one of the first to fall, though
his death would not solve the problem, and others would
attempt to reform the distribution of land and other aspects
of Roman economy and society. Many would meet a similar
fate. Tiberius Gracchus’s brother Gaius, for example, was
also murdered by landowners, after he took the mantle from
his brother.
These tensions would surface again periodically during
the next century—for example, leading to the “Social War”
between 91 BC and 87 BC. The aggressive defender of the
senatorial interests, Lucius Cornelius Sulla, not only
viciously suppressed the demands for change but also
severely curtailed the powers of the plebeian tribune. The
same issues would also be a central factor in the support
that Julius Caesar received from the people of Rome in his
fight against the Senate.
The political institutions forming the core of the Roman
Republic were overthrown by Julius Caesar in 49 BC when
he moved his legion across the Rubicon, the river
separating the Roman provinces of Cisalpine Gaul from
Italy. Rome fell to Caesar, and another civil war broke out.
Though Caesar was victorious, he was murdered by
disgruntled senators, led by Brutus and Cassius, in 44 BC.
The Roman Republic would never be re-created. A new
civil war broke out between Caesar’s supporters,
particularly Mark Anthony and Octavian, and his foes. After
Anthony and Octavian won, they fought each other, until
Octavian emerged triumphant in the battle of Actium in 31
BC. By the following year, and for the next forty-five years,
Octavian, known after 28 BC as Augustus Caesar, ruled
Rome alone. Augustus created the Roman Empire, though
he preferred the title princep, a sort of “first among equals,”
and called the regime the Principate. Map 11 shows the
Roman Empire at its greatest extent in 117 AD. It also
includes the river Rubicon, which Caesar so fatefully
crossed.
It was this transition from republic to principate, and later
naked empire, that laid the seeds of the decline of Rome.
The partially inclusive political institutions, which had
formed the basis for the economic success, were gradually
undermined. Even if the Roman Republic created a tilted
playing field in favor of the senatorial class and other
wealthy Romans, it was not an absolutist regime and had
never before concentrated so much power in one position.
The changes unleashed by Augustus, as with the Venetian
Serrata, were at first political but then would have
significant economic consequences. As a result of these
changes, by the fifth century AD the Western Roman
Empire, as the West was called after it split from the East,
had declined economically and militarily, and was on the
brink of collapse.
… ROMAN VICES
Flavius Aetius was one of the larger-than-life characters of
the late Roman Empire, hailed as “the last of the Romans”
by Edward Gibbon, author of The Decline and Fall of the
Roman Empire. Between AD 433 and 454, until he was
murdered by the emperor Valentinian III, Aetius, a general,
was probably the most powerful person in the Roman
Empire. He shaped both domestic and foreign policy, and
fought a series of crucial battles against the barbarians,
and also other Romans in civil wars. He was unique among
powerful generals fighting in civil wars in not seeking the
emperorship himself. Since the end of the second century,
civil war had become a fact of life in the Roman Empire.
Between the death of Marcus Aurelius in AD 180 until the
collapse of the Western Roman Empire in AD 476, there
was hardly a decade that did not see a civil war or a palace
coup against an emperor. Few emperors died of natural
causes or in battle. Most were murdered by usurpers or
their own troops.
Aetius’s career illustrates the changes from Roman
Republic and early Empire to the late Roman Empire. Not
only did his involvement in incessant civil wars and his
power in every aspect of the empire’s business contrast
with the much more limited power of generals and senators
during earlier periods, but it also highlights how the fortunes
of Romans changed radically in the intervening centuries in
other ways.
By the late Roman Empire, the so-called barbarians who
were initially dominated and incorporated into Roman
armies or used as slaves now dominated many parts of the
empire. As a young man, Aetius had been held hostage by
barbarians, first by the Goths under Alaric and then by the
Huns. Roman relations with these barbarians are indicative
of how things had changed since the Republic. Alaric was
both a ferocious enemy and an ally, so much so that in 405
he was appointed one of the senior-most generals of the
Roman army. The arrangement was temporary, however.
By 408, Alaric was fighting against the Romans, invading
Italy and sacking Rome.
The Huns were also both powerful foes and frequent
allies of the Romans. Though they, too, held Aetius
hostage, they later fought alongside him in a civil war. But
the Huns did not stay long on one side, and under Attila
they fought a major battle against the Romans in 451, just
across the Rhine. This time defending the Romans were
the Goths, under Theodoric.
All of this did not stop Roman elites from trying to
appease barbarian commanders, often not to protect
Roman territories but to gain the upper hand in internal
power struggles. For example, the Vandals, under their
king, Geiseric, ravaged large parts of the Iberian Peninsula
and then conquered the Roman bread baskets in North
Africa from 429 onward. The Roman response to this was
to offer Geiseric the emperor Valentinian III’s child daughter
as a bride. Geiseric was at the time married to the
daughter of one of the leaders of the Goths, but this does
not seem to have stopped him. He annulled his marriage
under the pretext that his wife was trying to murder him and
sent her back to her family after mutilating her by cutting off
both her ears and her nose. Fortunately for the bride-to-be,
because of her young age she was kept in Italy and never
consummated her marriage to Geiseric. Later she would
marry another powerful general, Petronius Maximus, the
mastermind of the murder of Aetius by the emperor
Valentinian III, who would himself shortly be murdered in a
plot hatched by Maximus. Maximus later declared himself
emperor, but his reign would be very short, ended by his
death during the major offensive by the Vandals under
Geiseric against Italy, which saw Rome fall and savagely
plundered.
BY THE EARLY fifth century, the barbarians were literally at the
gate. Some historians argue that it was a consequence of
the more formidable opponents the Romans faced during
the late Empire. But the success of the Goths, Huns, and
Vandals against Rome was a symptom, not the cause, of
Rome’s decline. During the Republic, Rome had dealt with
much more organized and threatening opponents, such as
the Carthaginians. The decline of Rome had causes very
similar to those of the Maya city-states. Rome’s
increasingly extractive political and economic institutions
generated its demise because they caused infighting and
civil war.
The origins of the decline go back at least to Augustus’s
seizure of power, which set in motion changes that made
political institutions much more extractive. These included
changes in the structure of the army, which made
secession impossible, thus removing a crucial element that
ensured political representation for common Romans. The
emperor Tiberius, who followed Augustus in AD 14,
abolished the Plebeian Assembly and transferred its
powers to the Senate. Instead of a political voice, Roman
citizens now had free handouts of wheat and, subsequently,
olive oil, wine, and pork, and were kept entertained by
circuses and gladiatorial contests. With Augustus’s
reforms, emperors began to rely not so much on the army
made up of citizen-soldiers, but on the Praetorian Guard,
the elite group of professional soldiers created by
Augustus. The Guard itself would soon become an
important independent broker of who would become
emperor, often through not peaceful means but civil wars
and intrigue. Augustus also strengthened the aristocracy
against common Roman citizens, and the growing
inequality that had underpinned the conflict between
Tiberius Gracchus and the aristocrats continued, perhaps
even strengthened.
The accumulation of power at the center made the
property rights of common Romans less secure. State
lands also expanded with the empire as a consequence of
confiscation, and grew to as much as half of the land in
many parts of the empire. Property rights became
particularly unstable because of the concentration of power
in the hands of the emperor and his entourage. In a pattern
not too different from what happened in the Maya citystates, infighting to take control of this powerful position
increased. Civil wars became a regular occurrence, even
before the chaotic fifth century, when the barbarians ruled
supreme. For example, Septimius Severus seized power
from Didius Julianus, who had made himself emperor after
the murder of Pertinax in AD 193. Severus, the third
emperor in the so-called Year of the Five Emperors, then
waged war against his rival claimants, the generals
Pescennius Niger and Clodius Albinus, who were finally
defeated i n AD 194 and 197, respectively. Severus
confiscated all the property of his losing opponents in the
ensuing civil war. Though able rulers, such as Trajan ( AD 98
to 117), Hadrian, and Marcus Aurelius in the next century,
could stanch decline, they could not, or did not want to,
address the fundamental institutional problems. None of
these men proposed abandoning the empire or re-creating
effective political institutions along the lines of the Roman
Republic. Marcus Aurelius, for all his successes, was
followed by his son Commodus, who was more like
Caligula or Nero than his father.
The rising instability was evident from the layout and
location of towns and cities in the empire. By the third
century AD every sizeable city in the empire had a defensive
wall. In many cases monuments were plundered for stone,
which was used in fortifications. In Gaul before the Romans
had arrived in 125 BC, it was usual to build settlements on
hilltops, since these were more easily defended. With the
initial arrival of Rome, settlements moved down to the
plains. In the third century, this trend was reversed.
Along with mounting political instability came changes in
society that moved economic institutions toward greater
extraction. Though citizenship was expanded to the extent
that by AD 212 nearly all the inhabitants of the empire were
citizens, this change went along with changes in status
between citizens. Any sense that there might have been of
equality before the law deteriorated. For example, by the
reign of Hadrian (AD 117 to 138), there were clear
differences in the types of laws applied to different
categories of Roman citizen. Just as important, the role of
citizens was completely different from how it had been in
the days of the Roman Republic, when they were able to
exercise some power over political and economic
decisions through the assemblies in Rome.
Slavery remained a constant throughout Rome, though
there is some controversy over whether the fraction of
slaves in the population actually declined over the
centuries. Equally important, as the empire developed,
more and more agricultural workers were reduced to semiservile status and tied to the land. The status of these
servile “coloni” is extensively discussed in legal documents
such as the Codex Theodosianus and Codex Justinianus,
and probably originated during the reign of Diocletian (AD
284 to 305). The rights of landlords over the coloni were
progressively increased. The emperor Constantine in 332
allowed landlords to chain a colonus whom they suspected
was trying to escape, and from AD 365, coloni were not
allowed to sell their own property without their landlord’s
permission.
Just as we can use shipwrecks and the Greenland ice
cores to track the economic expansion of Rome during
earlier periods, we can use them also to trace its decline.
B y AD 500 the peak of 180 ships was reduced to 20. As
Rome declined, Mediterranean trade collapsed, and some
scholars have even argued that it did not return to its
Roman height until the nineteenth century. The Greenland
ice tells a similar story. The Romans used silver for coins,
and lead had many uses, including for pipes and tableware.
After peaking in the first century AD, the deposits of lead,
silver, and copper in the ice cores declined.
The experience of economic growth during the Roman
Republic was impressive, as were other examples of
growth under extractive institutions, such as the Soviet
Union. But that growth was limited and was not sustained,
even when it is taken into account that it occurred under
partially inclusive institutions. Growth was based on
relatively high agricultural productivity, significant tribute
from the provinces, and long-distance trade, but it was not
underpinned by technological progress or creative
destruction. The Romans inherited some basic
technologies, iron tools and weapons, literacy, plow
agriculture, and building techniques. Early on in the
Republic, they created others: cement masonry, pumps,
and the water wheel. But thereafter, technology was
stagnant throughout the period of the Roman Empire. In
shipping, for instance, there was little change in ship design
or rigging, and the Romans never developed the stern
rudder, instead steering ships with oars. Water wheels
spread very slowly, so that water power never
revolutionized the Roman economy. Even such great
achievements as aqueducts and city sewers used existing
technology, though the Romans perfected it. There could be
some economic growth without innovation, relying on
existing technology, but it was growth without creative
destruction. And it did not last. As property rights became
more insecure and the economic rights of citizens followed
the decline of their political rights, economic growth
likewise declined.
A remarkable thing about new technologies in the
Roman period is that their creation and spread seem to
have been driven by the state. This is good news, until the
government decides that it is not interested in technological
development—an all-too-common occurrence due to the
fear of creative destruction. The great Roman writer Pliny
the Elder relates the following story. During the reign of the
emperor Tiberius, a man invented unbreakable glass and
went to the emperor anticipating that he would get a great
reward. He demonstrated his invention, and Tiberius asked
him if he had told anyone else about it. When the man
replied no, Tiberius had the man dragged away and killed,
“lest gold be reduced to the value of mud.” There are two
interesting things about this story. First, the man went to
Tiberius in the first place for a reward, rather than setting
himself up in business and making a profit by selling the
glass. This shows the role of the Roman government in
controlling technology. Second, Tiberius was happy to
destroy the innovation because of the adverse economic
effects it would have had. This is the fear of the economic
effects of creative destruction.
There is also direct evidence from the period of the
Empire of the fear of the political consequences of creative
destruction. Suetonius tells how the emperor Vespasian,
who ruled between AD 69 and 79, was approached by a
man who had invented a device for transporting columns to
the Capitol, the citadel of Rome, at a relatively small cost.
Columns were large, heavy, and very difficult to transport.
Moving them to Rome from the mines where they were
made involved the labor of thousands of people, at great
expense to the government. Vespasian did not kill the man,
but he also refused to use the innovation, declaring, “How
will it be possible for me to feed the populace?” Again an
inventor came to the government. Perhaps this was more
natural than with the unbreakable glass, as the Roman
government was most heavily involved with column mining
and transportation. Again the innovation was turned down
because of the threat of creative destruction, not so much
because of its economic impact, but because of fear of
political creative destruction. Vespasian was concerned
that unless he kept the people happy and under control it
would be politically destabilizing. The Roman plebeians
had to be kept busy and pliant, so it was good to have jobs
to give them, such as moving columns about. This
complemented the bread and circuses, which were also
dispensed for free to keep the population content. It is
perhaps telling that both of these examples came soon
after the collapse of the Republic. The Roman emperors
had far more power to block change than the Roman rulers
during the Republic.
Another important reason for the lack of technological
innovation was the prevalence of slavery. As the territories
Romans controlled expanded, vast numbers were
enslaved, often being brought back to Italy to work on large
estates. Many citizens in Rome did not need to work: they
lived off the handouts from the government. Where was
innovation to come from? We have argued that innovation
comes from new people with new ideas, developing new
solutions to old problems. In Rome the people doing the
producing were slaves and, later, semi-servile coloni with
few incentives to innovate, since it was their masters, not
they, who stood to benefit from any innovation. As we will
see many times in this book, economies based on the
repression of labor and systems such as slavery and
serfdom are notoriously noninnovative. This is true from the
ancient world to the modern era. In the United States, for
example, the northern states took part in the Industrial
Revolution, not the South. Of course slavery and serfdom
created huge wealth for those who owned the slaves and
controlled the serfs, but it did not create technological
innovation or prosperity for society.
NO ONE WRITES FROM VINDOLANDA
B y AD 43 the Roman emperor Claudius had conquered
England, but not Scotland. A last, futile attempt was made
by the Roman governor Agricola, who gave up and, in AD
85, built a series of forts to protect England’s northern
border. One of the biggest of these was at Vindolanda,
thirty-five miles west of Newcastle and depicted on Map 11
at the far northwest of the Roman Empire. Later,
Vindolanda was incorporated into the eighty-five-mile
defensive wall that the emperor Hadrian constructed, but in
AD 103, when a Roman centurion, Candidus, was stationed
there, it was an isolated fort. Candidus was engaged with
his friend Octavius in supplying the Roman garrison and
received a reply from Octavius to a letter he had sent:
Octavius to his brother Candidus, greetings.
I have several times written to you that I have
bought about five thousand modii of ears of
grain, on account of which I need cash.
Unless you send me some cash, at least five
hundred denarii, the result will be that I shall
lose what I have laid out as a deposit, about
three hundred denarii, and I shall be
embarrassed. So, I ask you, send me some
cash as soon as possible. The hides which
you write are at Cataractonium—write that
they be given to me and the wagon about
which you write. I would have already been to
collect them except that I did not care to injure
the animals while the roads are bad. See
with Tertius about the 8½ denarii which he
received from Fatalis. He has not credited
them to my account. Make sure that you send
me cash so that I may have ears of grain on
the threshing-floor. Greet Spectatus and
Firmus. Farewell.
The correspondence between Candidus and Octavius
illustrates some significant facets of the economic
prosperity of Roman England: It reveals an advanced
monetary economy with financial services. It reveals the
presence of constructed roads, even if sometimes in bad
condition. It reveals the presence of a fiscal system that
raised taxes to pay Candidus’s wages. Most obviously it
reveals that both men were literate and were able to take
advantage of a postal service of sorts. Roman England
also benefited from the mass manufacture of high-quality
pottery, particularly in Oxfordshire; urban centers with baths
and public buildings; and house construction techniques
using mortar and tiles for roofs.
By the fourth century, all were in decline, and after AD 411
the Roman Empire gave up on England. Troops were
withdrawn; those left were not paid, and as the Roman
state crumbled, administrators were expelled by the local
population. By AD 450 all these trappings of economic
prosperity were gone. Money vanished from circulation.
Urban areas were abandoned, and buildings stripped of
stone. The roads were overgrown with weeds. The only
type of pottery fabricated was crude and handmade, not
manufactured. People forgot how to use mortar, and
literacy declined substantially. Roofs were made of
branches, not tiles. Nobody wrote from Vindolanda
anymore.
A f t e r AD 411, England experienced an economic
collapse and became a poor backwater—and not for the
first time. In the previous chapter we saw how the Neolithic
Revolution started in the Middle East around 9500 BC.
While the inhabitants of Jericho and Abu Hureyra were
living in small towns and farming, the inhabitants of England
were still hunting and gathering, and would do so for at
least another 5,500 years. Even then the English didn’t
invent farming or herding; these were brought from the
outside by migrants who had been spreading across
Europe from the Middle East for thousands of years. As the
inhabitants of England caught up with these major
innovations, those in the Middle East were inventing cities,
writing, and pottery. By 3500 BC, large cities such as Uruk
and Ur emerged in Mesopotamia, modern Iraq. Uruk may
have had a population of fourteen thousand in 3500 BC, and
forty thousand soon afterward. The potter’s wheel was
invented in Mesopotamia at about the same time as was
wheeled transportation. The Egyptian capital of Memphis
emerged as a large city soon thereafter. Writing appeared
independently in both regions. While the Egyptians were
building the great pyramids of Giza around 2500 BC, the
English constructed their most famous ancient monument,
the stone circle at Stonehenge. Not bad by English
standards, but not even large enough to have housed one
of the ceremonial boats buried at the foot of King Khufu’s
pyramid. England continued to lag behind and to borrow
from the Middle East and the rest of Europe up to and
including the Roman period.
Despite such an inauspicious history, it was in England
that the first truly inclusive society emerged and where the
Industrial Revolution got under way. We argued earlier (this
page–this page) that this was the result of a series of
interactions between small institutional differences and
critical junctures—for example, the Black Death and the
discovery of the Americas. English divergence had
historical roots, but the view from Vindolanda suggests that
these roots were not that deep and certainly not historically
predetermined. They were not planted in the Neolithic
Revolution, or even during the centuries of Roman
hegemony. By AD 450, at the start of what historians used to
call the Dark Ages, England had slipped back into poverty
and political chaos. There would be no effective centralized
state in England for hundreds of years.
DIVERGING PATHS
The rise of inclusive institutions and the subsequent
industrial growth in England did not follow as a direct
legacy of Roman (or earlier) institutions. This does not
mean that nothing significant happened with the fall of the
Western Roman Empire, a major event affecting most of
Europe. Since different parts of Europe shared the same
critical junctures, their institutions would drift in a similar
fashion, perhaps in a distinctively European way. The fall of
the Roman Empire was a crucial part of these common
critical junctures. This European path contrasts with paths
in other parts of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa,
Asia, and the Americas, which developed differently partly
because they did not face the same critical junctures.
Roman England collapsed with a bang. This was less
true in Italy, or Roman Gaul (modern France), or even North
Africa, where many of the old institutions lived on in some
form. Yet there is no doubt that the change from the
dominance of a single Roman state to a plethora of states
run by Franks, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Vandals, and
Burgundians was significant. The power of these states
was far weaker, and they were buffeted by a long series of
incursions from their peripheries. From the north came the
Vikings and Danes in their longboats. From the east came
the Hunnic horsemen. Finally, the emergence of Islam as a
religion and political force in the century after the death of
Mohammed in AD 632 led to the creation of new Islamic
states in most of the Byzantine Empire, North Africa, and
Spain. These common processes rocked Europe, and in
their wake a particular type of society, commonly referred
to as feudal, emerged. Feudal society was decentralized
because strong central states had atrophied, even if some
rulers such as Charlemagne attempted to reconstruct them.
Feudal institutions, which relied on unfree, coerced labor
(the serfs), were obviously extractive, and they formed the
basis for a long period of extractive and slow growth in
Europe during the Middle Ages. But they also were
consequential for later developments. For instance, during
the reduction of the rural population to the status of serfs,
slavery disappeared from Europe. At a time when it was
possible for elites to reduce the entire rural population to
serfdom, it did not seem necessary to have a separate
class of slaves as every previous society had had.
Feudalism also created a power vacuum in which
independent cities specializing in production and trade
could flourish. But when the balance of power changed after
the Black Death, and serfdom began to crumble in Western
Europe, the stage was set for a much more pluralistic
society without the presence of any slaves.
The critical junctures that gave rise to feudal society were
distinct, but they were not completely restricted to Europe.
A relevant comparison is with the modern African country of
Ethiopia, which developed from the Kingdom of Aksum,
founded in the north of the country around 400 BC. Aksum
was a relatively developed kingdom for its time and
engaged in international trade with India, Arabia, Greece,
and the Roman Empire. It was in many ways comparable to
the Eastern Roman Empire in this period. It used money,
built monumental public buildings and roads, and had very
similar technology, for example, in agriculture and shipping.
There are also interesting ideological parallels between
Aksum and Rome. In AD 312, the Roman emperor
Constantine converted to Christianity, as did King Ezana of
Aksum about the same time. Map 12 shows the location of
the historical state of Aksum in modern-day Ethiopia and
Eritrea, with outposts across the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia
and Yemen.
Just as Rome declined, so did Aksum, and its historical
decline followed a pattern close to that of the Western
Roman Empire. The role played by the Huns and Vandals
in the decline of Rome was taken by the Arabs, who, in the
seventh century, expanded into the Red Sea and down the
Arabian Peninsula. Aksum lost its colonies in Arabia and
its trade routes. This precipitated economic decline: money
stopped being coined, the urban population fell, and there
was a refocusing of the state into the interior of the country
and up into the highlands of modern Ethiopia.
In Europe, feudal institutions emerged following the
collapse of central state authority. The same thing
happened in Ethiopia, based on a system called gult,
which involved a grant of land by the emperor. The
institution is mentioned in thirteenth-century manuscripts,
though it may have originated much earlier. The term gult is
derived from an Amharic word meaning “he assigned a
fief.” It signified that in exchange for the land, the gult holder
had to provide services to the emperor, particularly military
ones. In turn, the gult holder had the right to extract tribute
from those who farmed the land. A variety of historical
sources suggest that gult holders extracted between onehalf and three-quarters of the agricultural output of
peasants. This system was an independent development
with notable similarities to European feudalism, but
probably even more extractive. At the height of feudalism in
England, serfs faced less onerous extraction and lost about
half of their output to their lords in one form or another.
But Ethiopia was not representative of Africa. Elsewhere,
slavery was not replaced by serfdom; African slavery and
the institutions that supported it were to continue for many
more centuries. Even Ethiopia’s ultimate path would be
very different. After the seventh century, Ethiopia remained
isolated in the mountains of East Africa from the processes
that subsequently influenced the institutional path of
Europe, such as the emergence of independent cities, the
nascent constraints on monarchs and the expansion of
Atlantic trade after the discovery of the Americas. In
consequence, its version of absolutist institutions remained
largely unchallenged. The African continent would later
interact in a very different capacity with Europe and Asia.
East Africa became a major supplier of slaves to the Arab
world, and West and Central Africa would be drawn into the
world economy during the European expansion associated
with the Atlantic trade as suppliers of slaves. How the
Atlantic trade led to sharply divergent paths between
Western Europe and Africa is yet another example of
institutional divergence resulting from the interaction
between critical junctures and existing institutional
differences. While in England the profits of the slave trade
helped to enrich those who opposed absolutism, in Africa
they helped to create and strengthen absolutism.
Farther away from Europe, the processes of institutional
drift were obviously even freer to go their own way. In the
Americas, for example, which had been cut off from Europe
around 15,000 BC by the melting of the ice that linked
Alaska to Russia, there were similar institutional
innovations as those of the Natufians, leading to sedentary
life, hierarchy, and inequality—in short, extractive
institutions. These took place first in Mexico and in Andean
Peru and Bolivia, and led to the American Neolithic
Revolution, with the domestication of maize. It was in these
places that early forms of extractive growth took place, as
we have seen in the Maya city-states. But in the same way
that big breakthroughs toward inclusive institutions and
industrial growth in Europe did not come in places where
the Roman world had the strongest hold, inclusive
institutions in the Americas did not develop in the lands of
these early civilizations. In fact, as we saw in chapter 1,
these densely settled civilizations interacted in a perverse
way with European colonialism to create a “reversal of
fortune,” making the places that were previously relatively
wealthy in the Americas relatively poor. Today it is the
United States and Canada, which were then far behind the
complex civilizations in Mexico, Peru, and Bolivia, that are
much richer than the rest of the Americas.
CONSEQUENCES OF EARLY GROWTH
The long period between the Neolithic Revolution, which
started in 9500 BC, and the British Industrial Revolution of
the late eighteenth century is littered with spurts of
economic growth. These spurts were triggered by
institutional innovations that ultimately faltered. In Ancient
Rome the institutions of the Republic, which created some
degree of economic vitality and allowed for the construction
of a massive empire, unraveled after the coup of Julius
Caesar and the construction of the empire under Augustus.
It took centuries for the Roman Empire finally to vanish, and
the decline was drawn out; but once the relatively inclusive
republican institutions gave way to the more extractive
institutions of the empire, economic regress became all but
inevitable.
The Venetian dynamics were similar. The economic
prosperity of Venice was forged by institutions that had
important inclusive elements, but these were undermined
when the existing elite closed the system to new entrants
and even banned the economic institutions that had
created the prosperity of the republic.
However notable the experience of Rome, it was not
Rome’s inheritance that led directly to the rise of inclusive
institutions in England and to the British Industrial
Revolution. Historical factors shape how institutions
develop, but this is not a simple, predetermined, cumulative
process. Rome and Venice illustrate how early steps
toward inclusivity were reversed. The economic and
institutional landscape that Rome created throughout
Europe and the Middle East did not inexorably lead to the
more firmly rooted inclusive institutions of later centuries. In
fact, these would emerge first and most strongly in England,
where the Roman hold was weakest and where it
disappeared most decisively, almost without a trace, during
the fifth century AD. Instead, as we discussed in chapter 4,
history plays a major role through institutional drift that
creates institutional differences, albeit sometimes small,
which then get amplified when they interact with critical
junctures. It is because these differences are often small
that they can be reversed easily and are not necessarily the
consequence of a simple cumulative process.
Of course, Rome had long-lasting effects on Europe.
Roman law and institutions influenced the laws and
institutions that the kingdoms of the barbarians set up after
the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. It was also
Rome’s fall that created the decentralized political
landscape that developed into the feudal order. The
disappearance of slavery and the emergence of
independent cities were long, drawn out (and, of course,
historically contingent) by-products of this process. These
would become particularly consequential when the Black
Death shook feudal society deeply. Out of the ashes of the
Black Death emerged stronger towns and cities, and a
peasantry no longer tied to the land and newly free of feudal
obligations. It was precisely these critical junctures
unleashed by the fall of the Roman Empire that led to a
strong institutional drift affecting all of Europe in a way that
has no parallel in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, or the
Americas.
By the sixteenth century, Europe was institutionally very
distinct from sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas. Though
not much richer than the most spectacular Asian
civilizations in India or China, Europe differed from these
polities in some key ways. For example, it had developed
representative institutions of a sort unseen there. These
were to play a critical role in the development of inclusive
institutions. As we will see in the next two chapters, small
institutional differences would be the ones that would really
matter within Europe; and these favored England, because
it was there that the feudal order had made way most
comprehensively for commercially minded farmers and
independent urban centers where merchants and
industrialists could flourish. These groups were already
demanding more secure property rights, different economic
institutions, and political voice from their monarchs. This
whole process would come to a head in the seventeenth
century.
7.
THE TURNING POINT
TROUBLE WITH STOCKINGS
IN 1583 WILLIAM LEE returned
from his studies at the
University of Cambridge to become the local priest in
Calverton, England. Elizabeth I (1558–1603) had recently
issued a ruling that her people should always wear a knitted
cap. Lee recorded that “knitters were the only means of
producing such garments but it took so long to finish the
article. I began to think. I watched my mother and my sisters
sitting in the evening twilight plying their needles. If
garments were made by two needles and one line of
thread, why not several needles to take up the thread.”
This momentous thought was the beginning of the
mechanization of textile production. Lee became obsessed
with making a machine that would free people from endless
hand-knitting. He recalled, “My duties to Church and family I
began to neglect. The idea of my machine and the creating
of it ate into my heart and brain.”
Finally, in 1589, his “stocking frame” knitting machine
was ready. He traveled to London with excitement to seek
an interview with Elizabeth I to show her how useful the
machine would be and to ask her for a patent that would
stop other people from copying the design. He rented a
building to set the machine up and, with the help of his local
member of Parliament Richard Parkyns, met Henry Carey,
Lord Hundson, a member of the Queen’s Privy Council.
Carey arranged for Queen Elizabeth to come see the
machine, but her reaction was devastating. She refused to
grant Lee a patent, instead observing, “Thou aimest high,
Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to
my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by
depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.”
Crushed, Lee moved to France to try his luck there; when
he failed there, too, he returned to England, where he
asked James I (1603–1625), Elizabeth’s successor, for a
patent. James I also refused, on the same grounds as
Elizabeth. Both feared that the mechanization of stocking
production would be politically destabilizing. It would throw
people out of work, create unemployment and political
instability, and threaten royal power. The stocking frame
was an innovation that promised huge productivity
increases, but it also promised creative destruction.
THE REACTION TO LEE’S brilliant invention illustrates a key
idea of this book. The fear of creative destruction is the
main reason why there was no sustained increase in living
standards between the Neolithic and Industrial revolutions.
Technological innovation makes human societies
prosperous, but also involves the replacement of the old
with the new, and the destruction of the economic privileges
and political power of certain people. For sustained
economic growth we need new technologies, new ways of
doing things, and more often than not they will come from
newcomers such as Lee. It may make society prosperous,
but the process of creative destruction that it initiates
threatens the livelihood of those who work with old
technologies, such as the hand-knitters who would have
found themselves unemployed by Lee’s technology. More
important, major innovations such as Lee’s stocking frame
machine also threaten to reshape political power.
Ultimately it was not concern about the fate of those who
might become unemployed as a result of Lee’s machine
that led Elizabeth I and James I to oppose his patent; it was
their fear that they would become political losers—their
concern that those displaced by the invention would create
political instability and threaten their own power. As we saw
with the Luddites (this page–this page), it is often possible
to bypass the resistance of workers such as hand-knitters.
But the elite, especially when their political power is
threatened, form a more formidable barrier to innovation.
The fact that they have much to lose from creative
destruction means not only that they will not be the ones
introducing new innovations but also that they will often
resist and try to stop such innovations. Thus society needs
newcomers to introduce the most radical innovations, and
these newcomers and the creative destruction they wreak
must often overcome several sources of resistance,
including that from powerful rulers and elites.
Prior to seventeenth-century England, extractive
institutions were the norm throughout history. They have at
times been able to generate economic growth, as shown in
the last two chapters, especially when they’ve contained
inclusive elements, as in Venice and Rome. But they did
not permit creative destruction. The growth they generated
was not sustained, and came to an end because of the
absence of new innovations, because of political infighting
generated by the desire to benefit from extraction, or
because the nascent inclusive elements were conclusively
reversed, as in Venice.
The life expectancy of a resident of the Natufian village of
Abu Hureyra was probably not that much different from that
of a citizen of Ancient Rome. The life expectancy of a
typical Roman was fairly similar to that of an average
inhabitant of England in the seventeenth century. In terms of
incomes, in 301 AD the Roman emperor Diocletian issued
the Edict on Maximum Prices, which set out a schedule of
wages that various types of workers would be paid. We
don’t know exactly how well Diocletian’s wages and prices
were enforced, but when the economic historian Robert
Allen used his edict to calculate the living standards of a
typical unskilled worker, he found them to be almost exactly
the same as those of an unskilled worker in seventeenthcentury Italy. Farther north, in England, wages were higher
and increasing, and things were changing. How this came
to be is the topic of this chapter.
EVER-PRESENT POLITICAL CONFLICT
Conflict over institutions and the distribution of resources
has been pervasive throughout history. We saw, for
example, how political conflict shaped the evolution of
Ancient Rome and Venice, where it was ultimately resolved
in favor of the elites, who were able to increase their hold
on power.
English history is also full of conflict between the
monarchy and its subjects, between different factions
fighting for power, and between elites and citizens. The
outcome, though, has not always been to strengthen the
power of those who held it. In 1215 the barons, the layer of
the elite beneath the king, stood up to King John and made
him sign the Magna Carta (“the Great Charter”) at
Runnymede (see Map 9, this page). This document
enacted some basic principles that were significant
challenges to the authority of the king. Most important, it
established that the king had to consult with the barons in
order to raise taxes. The most contentious clause was
number 61, which stated that “the barons shall choose any
twenty-five barons of the realm they wish, who with all their
might are to observe, maintain and cause to be observed
the peace and liberties which we have granted and
confirmed to them by this our present charter.” In essence,
the barons created a council to make sure that the king
implemented the charter, and if he didn’t, these twenty-five
barons had the right to seize castles, lands, and
possessions “… until, in their judgement, amends have
been made.” King John didn’t like the Magna Carta, and as
soon as the barons dispersed, he got the pope to annul it.
But both the political power of the barons and the influence
of the Magna Carta remained. England had taken its first
hesitant step toward pluralism.
Conflict over political institutions continued, and the
power of the monarchy was further constrained by the first
elected Parliament in 1265. Unlike the Plebeian Assembly
in Rome or the elected legislatures of today, its members
had originally been feudal nobles, and subsequently were
knights and the wealthiest aristocrats of the nation. Despite
consisting of elites, the English Parliament developed two
distinguishing characteristics. First, it represented not only
elites closely allied to the king but also a broad set of
interests, including minor aristocrats involved in different
walks of life, such as commerce and industry, and later the
“gentry,” a new class of commercial and upwardly mobile
farmers. Thus the Parliament empowered a quite broad
section of society—especially by the standards of the time.
Second, and largely as a result of the first characteristic,
many members of Parliament were consistently opposed to
the monarchy’s attempts to increase its power and would
become the mainstay of those fighting against the
monarchy in the English Civil War and then in the Glorious
Revolution.
The Magna Carta and the first elected Parliament
notwithstanding, political conflict continued over the powers
of the monarchy and who was to be king. This intra-elite
conflict ended with the War of the Roses, a long duel
between the Houses of Lancaster and York, two families
with contenders to be king. The winners were the
Lancastrians, whose candidate for king, Henry Tudor,
became Henry VII in 1485.
Two other interrelated processes took place. The first
was increasing political centralization, put into motion by
the Tudors. After 1485 Henry VII disarmed the aristocracy,
in effect demilitarizing them and thereby massively
expanding the power of the central state. His son, Henry
VIII, then implemented through his chief minister, Thomas
Cromwell, a revolution in government. In the 1530s,
Cromwell introduced a nascent bureaucratic state. Instead
of the government being just the private household of the
king, it could become a separate set of enduring
institutions. This was complemented by Henry VIII’s break
with the Roman Catholic Church and the “Dissolution of the
Monasteries,” in which Henry expropriated all the Church
lands. The removal of the power of the Church was part of
making the state more centralized. This centralization of
state institutions meant that for the first time, inclusive
political institutions became possible. This process
initiated by Henry VII and Henry VIII not only centralized
state institutions but also increased the demand for
broader-based political representation. The process of
political centralization can actually lead to a form of
absolutism, as the king and his associates can crush other
powerful groups in society. This is indeed one of the
reasons why there will be opposition against state
centralization, as we saw in chapter 3. However, in
opposition to this force, the centralization of state
institutions can also mobilize demand for a nascent form of
pluralism, as it did in Tudor England. When the barons and
local elites recognize that political power will be
increasingly more centralized and that this process is hard
to stop, they will make demands to have a say in how this
centralized power is used. In England during the late
fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, this meant greater efforts
by these groups to have Parliament as a counterweight
against the Crown and to partially control the way the state
functioned. Thus the Tudor project not only initiated political
centralization, one pillar of inclusive institutions, but also
indirectly contributed to pluralism, the other pillar of
inclusive institutions.
These developments in political institutions took place in
the context of other major changes in the nature of society.
Particularly significant was the widening of political conflict
which was broadening the set of groups with the ability to
make demands on the monarchy and the political elites.
The Peasants’ Revolt of 1381 (this page) was pivotal, after
which the English elite were rocked by a long sequence of
popular insurrections. Political power was being
redistributed not simply from the king to the lords, but also
from the elite to the people. These changes, together with
the increasing constraints on the king’s power, made the
emergence of a broad coalition opposed to absolutism
possible and thus laid the foundations for pluralistic political
institutions.
Though contested, the political and economic institutions
the Tudors inherited and sustained were clearly extractive.
In 1603 Elizabeth I, Henry VIII’s daughter who had acceded
to the throne of England in 1553, died without children, and
the Tudors were replaced by the Stuart dynasty. The first
Stuart king, James I, inherited not only the institutions but
the conflicts over them. He desired to be an absolutist ruler.
Though the state had become more centralized and social
change was redistributing power in society, political
institutions were not yet pluralistic. In the economy,
extractive institutions manifested themselves not just in the
opposition to Lee’s invention, but in the form of
monopolies, monopolies, and more monopolies. In 1601 a
list of these was read out in Parliament, with one member
ironically asking, “Is not bread there?” By 1621 there were
seven hundred of them. As the English historian
Christopher Hill put it, a man lived
in a house built with monopoly bricks, with
windows … of monopoly glass; heated by
monopoly coal (in Ireland monopoly timber),
burning in a grate made of monopoly
iron … He washed himself in monopoly soap,
his clothes in monopoly starch. He dressed in
monopoly lace, monopoly linen, monopoly
leather, monopoly gold thread … His clothes
were held up by monopoly belts, monopoly
buttons, monopoly pins. They were dyed with
monopoly dyes. He ate monopoly butter,
monopoly currants, monopoly red herrings,
monopoly salmon, and monopoly lobsters.
His food was seasoned with monopoly salt,
monopoly pepper, monopoly vinegar … He
wrote with monopoly pens, on monopoly
writing paper; read (through monopoly
spectacles, by the light of monopoly candles)
monopoly printed books.
These monopolies, and many more, gave individuals or
groups the sole right to control the production of many
goods. They impeded the type of allocation of talent, which
is so crucial to economic prosperity.
Both James I and his son and successor Charles I
aspired to strengthen the monarchy, reduce the influence of
Parliament, and establish absolutist institutions similar to
those being constructed in Spain and France to further their
and the elite’s control of the economy, making institutions
more extractive. The conflict between James I and
Parliament came to a head in the 1620s. Central in this
conflict was the control of trade both overseas and within
the British Isles. The Crown’s ability to grant monopolies
was a key source of revenue for the state, and was used
frequently as a way of granting exclusive rights to
supporters of the king. Not surprisingly, this extractive
institution blocking entry and inhibiting the functioning of the
market was also highly damaging to economic activity and
to the interests of many members of Parliament. In 1623
Parliament scored a notable victory by managing to pass
the Statute of Monopolies, which prohibited James I from
creating new domestic monopolies. He would still be able
to grant monopolies on international trade, however, since
the authority of Parliament did not extend to international
affairs. Existing monopolies, international or otherwise,
stood untouched.
Parliament did not sit regularly and had to be called into
session by the king. The convention that emerged after the
Magna Carta was that the king was required to convene
Parliament to get assent for new taxes. Charles I came to
the throne in 1625, declined to call Parliament after 1629,
and intensified James I’s efforts to build a more solidly
absolutist regime. He induced forced loans, meaning that
people had to “lend” him money, and he unilaterally
changed the terms of loans and refused to repay his debts.
He created and sold monopolies in the one dimension that
the Statute of Monopolies had left to him: overseas trading
ventures. He also undermined the independence of the
judiciary and attempted to intervene to influence the
outcome of legal cases. He levied many fines and charges,
the most contentious of which was “ship money”—in 1634
taxing the coastal counties to pay for the support of the
Royal Navy and, in 1635, extending the levy to the inland
counties. Ship money was levied each year until 1640.
Charles’s increasingly absolutist behavior and extractive
policies created resentment and resistance throughout the
country. In 1640 he faced conflict with Scotland and, without
enough money to put a proper army into the field, was
forced to call Parliament to ask for more taxes. The socalled Short Parliament sat for only three weeks. The
parliamentarians who came to London refused to talk about
taxes, but aired many grievances, until Charles dismissed
them. The Scots realized that Charles did not have the
support of the nation and invaded England, occupying the
city of Newcastle. Charles opened negotiations, and the
Scots demanded that Parliament be involved. This induced
Charles to call what then became known as the Long
Parliament, because it continued to sit until 1648, refusing
to dissolve even when Charles demanded it do so.
In 1642 the Civil War broke out between Charles and
Parliament, even though there were many in Parliament
who sided with the Crown. The pattern of conflicts reflected
the struggle over economic and political institutions.
Parliament wanted an end to absolutist political institutions;
the king wanted them strengthened. These conflicts were
rooted in economics. Many supported the Crown because
they had been granted lucrative monopolies. For example,
the local monopolies controlled by the rich and powerful
merchants of Shrewsbury and Oswestry were protected by
the Crown from competition by London merchants. These
merchants sided with Charles I. On the other side, the
metallurgical industry had flourished around Birmingham
because monopolies were weak there and newcomers to
the industry did not have to serve a seven-year
apprenticeship, as they did in other parts of the country.
During the Civil War, they made swords and produced
volunteers for the parliamentary side. Similarly, the lack of
guild regulation in the county of Lancashire allowed for the
development before 1640 of the “New Draperies,” a new
style of lighter cloth. The area where the production of these
cloths was concentrated was the only part of Lancashire to
support Parliament.
Under the leadership of Oliver Cromwell, the
Parliamentarians—known as the Roundheads after the
style in which their hair was cropped—defeated the
royalists, known as Cavaliers. Charles was tried and
executed in 1649. His defeat and the abolition of the
monarchy did not, however, result in inclusive institutions.
Instead, monarchy was replaced by the dictatorship of
Oliver Cromwell. Following Cromwell’s death, the monarchy
was restored in 1660 and clawed back many of the
privileges that had been stripped from it in 1649. Charles’s
son, Charles II, then set about the same program of
creating absolutism in England. These attempts were only
intensified by his brother James II, who ascended to the
throne after Charles’s death in 1685. In 1688 James’s
attempt to reestablish absolutism created another crisis
and another civil war. Parliament this time was more united
and organized. They invited the Dutch Statholder, William
of Orange, and his wife, Mary, James’s Protestant
daughter, to replace James. William would bring an army
and claim the throne, to rule not as an absolutist monarch
but under a constitutional monarchy forged by Parliament.
Two months after William’s landing in the British Isles at
Brixham in Devon (see Map 9, this page), James’s army
disintegrated and he fled to France.
THE GLORIOUS REVOLUTION
After victory in the Glorious Revolution, Parliament and
William negotiated a new constitution. The changes were
foreshadowed by William’s “Declaration,” made shortly
prior to his invasion. They were further enshrined in the
Declaration of Rights, produced by Parliament in February
1689. The Declaration was read out to William at the same
session where he was offered the crown. In many ways the
Declaration, which would be called the Bill of Rights after its
signing into law, was vague. Crucially, however, it did
establish some central constitutional principles. It
determined the succession to the throne, and did so in a
way that departed significantly from the then-received
hereditary principles. If Parliament could remove a monarch
and replace him with one more to their liking once, then why
not again? The Declaration of Rights also asserted that the
monarch could not suspend or dispense with laws, and it
reiterated the illegality of taxation without parliamentary
consent. In addition, it stated that there could be no
standing army in England without parliamentary consent.
Vagueness entered into such clauses as number 8, which
stated, “The election of members of Parliament ought to be
free,” but did not specify how “free” was to be determined.
Even vaguer was clause 13, whose main point was that
Parliaments ought to be held frequently. Since when and
whether Parliament would be held had been such a
contentious issue for the entire century, one might have
expected much more specificity in this clause.
Nevertheless, the reason for this vague wording is clear.
Clauses have to be enforced. During the reign of Charles II,
a Triennial Act had been in place that asserted that
Parliaments had to be called at least once every three
years. But Charles ignored it, and nothing happened,
because there was no method of enforcing it. After 1688,
Parliament could have tried to introduce a method for
enforcing this clause, as the barons had done with their
council after King John signed the Magna Carta. They did
not do so because they did not need to. This was because
authority and decision-making power switched to
Parliament after 1688. Even without specific constitutional
rules or laws, William simply gave up on many of the
practices of previous kings. He stopped interfering in legal
decisions and gave up previous “rights,” such as getting the
customs revenues for life. Taken together, these changes in
political institutions represented the triumph of Parliament
over the king, and thus the end of absolutism in England
and subsequently Great Britain—as England and Scotland
were united by the Act of Union in 1707. From then on
Parliament was firmly in control of state policy. This made a
huge difference, because the interests of Parliament were
very different from those of the Stuart kings. Since many of
those in Parliament had important investments in trade and
industry, they had a strong stake in enforcing property
rights. The Stuarts had frequently infringed on property
rights; now they would be upheld. Moreover, when the
Stuarts controlled how the government spent money,
Parliament opposed greater taxes and balked at
strengthening the power of the state. Now that Parliament
itself controlled spending, it was happy to raise taxes and
spend the money on activities that it deemed valuable.
Chief among them was the strengthening of the navy, which
would protect the overseas mercantile interests of many of
the members of Parliament.
Even more important than the interest of
parliamentarians was the emerging pluralistic nature of
political institutions. The English people now had access to
Parliament, and the policy and economic institutions made
in Parliament, in a way they never had when policy was
driven by the king. This was partially, of course, because
members of Parliament were elected. But since England
was far from being a democracy in this period, this access
provided only a modest amount of responsiveness. Among
its many inequities was that less than 2 percent of the
population could vote in the eighteenth century, and these
had to be men. The cities where the Industrial Revolution
took place, Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, and Sheffield,
had no independent representation in Parliament. Instead,
rural areas were overrepresented. Just as bad, the right to
vote in the rural areas, the “counties,” was based on
ownership of land, and many urban areas, the “boroughs,”
were controlled by a small elite who did not allow the new
industrialists to vote or run for office. In the borough of
Buckingham, for instance, thirteen burgesses had the
exclusive right to vote. On top of this there were the “rotten
boroughs,” which had historically had the right to vote but
had “rotted away,” either because their population had
moved over time or, in the case on Dunwich on the east
coast of England, had actually fallen into the ocean as a
result of coastal erosion. In each of these rotten boroughs,
a small number of voters elected two members of
Parliament. Old Sarum had seven voters, Dunwich thirtytwo, and each elected two members of Parliament.
But there were other ways to influence Parliament and
thus economic institutions. The most important was via
petitioning, and this was much more significant than the
limited extent of democracy for the emergence of pluralism
after the Glorious Revolution. Anybody could petition
Parliament, and petition they did. Significantly, when
people petitioned, Parliament listened. It is this more than
anything that reflects the defeat of absolutism, the
empowerment of a fairly broad segment of society, and the
rise of pluralism in England after 1688. The frantic
petitioning activity shows that it was indeed such a broad
group in society, far beyond those sitting or even being
represented in Parliament, that had the power to influence
the way the state worked. And they used it.
The case of monopolies best illustrates this. We saw
above how monopolies were at the heart of extractive
economic institutions in the seventeenth century. They
came under attack in 1623 with the Statute of Monopolies,
and were a serious bone of contention during the English
Civil War. The Long Parliament abolished all the domestic
monopolies that so impinged on people’s lives. Though
Charles II and James II could not bring these back, they
managed to maintain the ability to grant overseas
monopolies. One was the Royal African Company, whose
monopoly charter was issued by Charles II in 1660. This
company held a monopoly on the lucrative African slave
trade, and its governor and major shareholder was
Charles’s brother James, soon to become James II. After
1688 the Company lost not just its governor, but its main
supporter. James had assiduously protected the monopoly
of the company against “interlopers,” the independent
traders who tried to buy slaves in West Africa and sell them
in the Americas. This was a very profitable trade, and the
Royal African Company faced a lot of challenges, since all
other English trade in the Atlantic was free. In 1689 the
Company seized the cargo of an interloper, one
Nightingale. Nightingale sued the Company for illegal
seizure of goods, and Chief Justice Holt ruled that the
Company’s seizure was unlawful because it was exercising
a monopoly right created by royal prerogative. Holt
reasoned that monopoly privileges could be created only by
statute, and this had to be done by Parliament. So Holt
pushed all future monopolies, not just of the Royal Africa
Company, into the hands of Parliament. Before 1688
James II would quickly have removed any judge who made
such a ruling. After 1688 things were different.
Parliament now had to decide what to do with the
monopoly, and the petitions began to fly. One hundred and
thirty-five came from interlopers demanding free access to
trade in the Atlantic. Though the Royal African Company
responded in kind, it could not hope to match the number or
scope of the petitions demanding its demise. The
interlopers succeeded in framing their opposition in terms
not just of narrow self-interest, but of national interest, which
indeed it was. As a result, only 5 of the 135 petitions were
signed by the interlopers themselves, and 73 of the
interlopers’ petitions came from the provinces outside
London, as against 8 for the Company. From the colonies,
where petitioning was also allowed, the interlopers
gathered 27 petitions, the Company 11. The interlopers
also gathered far more signatures for their petitions, in total
8,000, as opposed to 2,500 for the Company. The struggle
continued until 1698, when the Royal African Company
monopoly was abolished.
Along with this new locus for the determination of
economic institutions and the new responsiveness after
1688, parliamentarians started making a series of key
changes in economic institutions and government policy
that would ultimately pave the way for the Industrial
Revolution. Property rights eroded under the Stuarts were
strengthened. Parliament began a process of reform in
economic institutions to promote manufacturing, rather than
taxing and impeding it. The “hearth tax”—an annual tax for
each fireplace or stove, which fell most heavily on
manufacturers, who were bitterly opposed to it—was
abolished in 1689, soon after William and Mary ascended
the throne. Instead of taxing hearths, Parliament moved to
start taxing land.
Redistributing the tax burden was not the only promanufacturing policy that Parliament supported. A whole
series of acts and legislations that would expand the
market and the profitability of woolen textiles was passed.
This all made political sense, since many of the
parliamentarians who opposed James were heavily
invested in these nascent manufacturing enterprises.
Parliament also passed legislation that allowed for a
complete reorganization of property rights in land,
permitting the consolidation and elimination of many
archaic forms of property and user rights.
Another priority of Parliament was reforming finance.
Though there had been an expansion of banking and
finance in the period leading up to the Glorious Revolution,
this process was further cemented by the creation of the
Bank of England in 1694, as a source of funds for industry.
It was another direct consequence of the Glorious
Revolution. The foundation of the Bank of England paved
the way for a much more extensive “financial revolution,”
which led to a great expansion of financial markets and
banking. By the early eighteenth century, loans would be
available to everyone who could put up the necessary
collateral. The records of a relatively small bank, C. Hoare’s
& Co. in London, which have survived intact from the period
1702–1724, illustrate this point. Though the bank did lend
money to aristocrats and lords, fully two-thirds of the
biggest borrowers from Hoare’s over this period were not
from the privileged social classes. Instead they were
merchants and businessmen, including one John Smith, a
man with the name of the eponymous average Englishman,
who was loaned £2,600 by the bank during the period
1715–1719.
So far we have emphasized how the Glorious Revolution
transformed English political institutions, making them
more pluralistic, and also started laying the foundations for
inclusive economic institutions. There is one more
significant change in institutions that emerged from the
Glorious Revolution: Parliament continued the process of
political centralization that was initiated by the Tudors. It
was not just that constraints increased, or that the state
regulated the economy in a different way, or that the English
state spent money on different things; but also the
capability and capacity of the state increased in all
directions. This again illustrates the linkages between
political centralization and pluralism: Parliament had
opposed making the state more effective and better
resourced prior to 1688 because it could not control it. After
1688 it was a different story.
The state started expanding, with expenditures soon
reaching around 10 percent of national income. This was
underpinned by an expansion of the tax base, particularly
with respect to the excise tax, which was levied on the
production of a long list of domestically produced
commodities. This was a very large state budget for the
period, and is in fact larger than what we see today in many
parts of the world. The state budgets in Colombia, for
example, reached this relative size only in the 1980s. In
many parts of sub-Saharan Africa—for example, in Sierra
Leone—the state budget even today would be far smaller
relative to the size of the economy without the large inflows
of foreign aid.
But the expansion of the size of the state is only part of
the process of political centralization. More important than
this was the qualitative way the state functioned and the
way those who controlled it and those who worked in it
behaved. The construction of state institutions in England
reached back into the Middle Ages, but as we’ve seen (this
page), steps toward political centralization and the
development of modern administration were decisively
taken by Henry VII and Henry VIII. Yet the state was still far
from the modern form that would emerge after 1688. For
example, many appointees were made on political
grounds, not because of merit or talent, and the state still
had a very limited capacity to raise taxes.
After 1688 Parliament began to improve the ability to
raise revenue through taxation, a development well
illustrated by the excise tax bureaucracy, which expanded
rapidly from 1,211 people in 1690 to 4,800 by 1780.
Excise tax inspectors were stationed throughout the
country, supervised by collectors who engaged in tours of
inspection to measure and check the amount of bread,
beer, and other goods subject to the excise tax. The extent
of this operation is illustrated by the reconstruction of the
excise rounds of Supervisor George Cowperthwaite by the
historian John Brewer. Between June 12 and July 5, 1710,
Supervisor Cowperthwaite traveled 290 miles in the
Richmond district of Yorkshire. During this period he visited
263 victualers, 71 maltsters, 20 chandlers, and one
common brewer. In all, he took 81 different measurements
of production and checked the work of 9 different
excisemen who worked for him. Eight years later we find
him working just as hard, but now in the Wakefield district,
in a different part of Yorkshire. In Wakefield, he traveled
more than nineteen miles a day on average and worked six
days a week, normally inspecting four or five premises. On
his day off, Sunday, he made up his books, so we have a
complete record of his activities. Indeed, the excise tax
system had very elaborate record keeping. Officers kept
three different types of records, all of which were supposed
to match one another, and any tampering with these
records was a serious offense. This remarkable level of
state supervision of society exceeds what the governments
of most poor countries can achieve today, and this in 1710.
Also significantly, after 1688 the state began to rely more
on talent and less on political appointees, and developed a
powerful infrastructure to run the country.
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
The Industrial Revolution was manifested in every aspect of
the English economy. There were major improvements in
transportation, metallurgy, and steam power. But the most
significant area of innovation was the mechanization of
textile production and the development of factories to
produce these manufactured textiles. This dynamic process
was unleashed by the institutional changes that flowed from
the Glorious Revolution. This was not just about the
abolition of domestic monopolies, which had been
achieved by 1640, or about different taxes or access to
finance. It was about a fundamental reorganization of
economic institutions in favor of innovators and
entrepreneurs, based on the emergence of more secure
and efficient property rights.
Improvements in the security and efficiency of property
rights, for example, played a central role in the
“transportation revolution,” paving the way for the Industrial
Revolution. Investment in canals and roads, the so-called
turnpikes, massively increased after 1688. These
investments, by reducing the costs of transportation, helped
to create an important prerequisite for the Industrial
Revolution. Prior to 1688, investment in such infrastructure
had been impeded by arbitrary acts by the Stuart kings.
The change in the situation after 1688 is vividly illustrated
by the case of the river Salwerpe, in Worcestershire,
England. In 1662 Parliament passed an act to encourage
investment to make the Salwerpe navigable, and the
Baldwyn family invested £6,000 to this end. In return they
got the right to charge people for navigation on the river. In
1693 a bill was introduced to Parliament to transfer the
rights to charge for navigation to the Earl of Shrewsbury
and Lord Coventry. This act was challenged by Sir Timothy
Baldwyn, who immediately submitted a petition to
Parliament claiming that the proposed bill was essentially
expropriating his father, who had already heavily invested in
the river in anticipation of the charges he could then levy.
Baldwyn argued that “the new act tends to make void the
said act, and to take away all the works and materials done
in pursuance thereof.” Reallocation of rights such as this
was exactly the sort of thing done by Stuart monarchs.
Baldwyn noted, “[I]t is of dangerous consequence to take
away any person’s right, purchased under an act of
Parliament, without their consent.” In the event, the new act
failed, and Baldwyn’s rights were upheld. Property rights
were much more secure after 1688, partly because
securing them was consistent with the interests of
Parliament and partly because pluralistic institutions could
be influenced by petitioning. We see here that after 1688
the political system became significantly more pluralistic
and created a relatively level playing field within England.
Underlying the transportation revolution and, more
generally, the reorganization of land that took place in the
eighteenth century were parliamentary acts that changed
the nature of property ownership. Until 1688 there was even
the legal fiction that all the land in England was ultimately
owned by the Crown, a direct legacy from the feudal
organization of society. Many pieces of land were
encumbered by numerous archaic forms of property rights
and many cross-cutting claims. Much land was held in so-
called equitable estates, which meant that the landowner
could not mortgage, lease, or sell the land. Common land
could often be used only for traditional uses. There were
enormous impediments to using land in ways that would be
economically desirable. Parliament began to change this,
allowing groups of people to petition Parliament to simplify
and reorganize property rights, alterations that were
subsequently embodied into hundreds of acts of
Parliament.
This reorganization of economic institutions also
manifested itself in the emergence of an agenda to protect
domestic textile production against foreign imports. Not
surprisingly, parliamentarians and their constituents were
not opposed to all entry barriers and monopolies. Those
that would increase their own market and profits would be
welcome. However, crucially, the pluralistic political
institutions—the fact that Parliament represented,
empowered, and listened to a broad segment of society—
meant that these entry barriers would not choke other
industrialists or completely shut out newcomers, as the
Serrata did in Venice (this page–this page). The powerful
woolen manufacturers soon made this discovery.
In 1688 some of the most significant imports into
England were textiles from India, calicoes and muslins,
which comprised about one-quarter of all textile imports.
Also important were silks from China. Calicoes and silks
were imported by the East India Company, which prior to
1688 enjoyed a government-sanctioned monopoly over the
trade with Asia. But the monopoly and the political power of
the East India Company was sustained through heavy
bribes to James II. After 1688 the company was in a
vulnerable position and soon under attack. This took the
form of an intense war of petitions with traders hoping to
trade in the Far East and India demanding that Parliament
sanction competition for the East India Company, while the
company responded with counterpetitions and offers to
lend Parliament money. The company lost, and a new East
India Company to compete with it was founded. But textile
producers did not just want more competition in the trade to
India. They wanted imports of cheap Indian textiles
(calicoes) taxed or even banned. These producers faced
strong competition from these cheap Indian imports. At this
point the most important domestic manufacturers produced
woolen textiles, but the producers of cotton cloths were
becoming both more important economically and more
powerful politically.
The wool industry mounted attempts to protect itself as
early as the 1660s. It promoted the “Sumptuary Laws,”
which, among other things, prohibited the wearing of lighter
cloth. It also lobbied Parliament to pass legislation in 1666
and 1678 that would make it illegal for someone to be
buried in anything other than a woolen shroud. Both
measures protected the market for woolen goods and
reduced the competition that English manufacturers faced
from Asia. Nevertheless, in this period the East India
Company was too strong to restrict imports of Asian
textiles. The tide changed after 1688. Between 1696 and
1698, woolen manufacturers from East Anglia and the
West Country allied with silk weavers from London,
Canterbury, and the Levant Company to restrict imports.
The silk importers from the Levant, even if they had recently
lost their monopoly, wished to exclude Asian silks to create
a niche for silks from the Ottoman Empire. This coalition
started to present bills to Parliament to place restrictions on
the wearing of Asian cottons and silks, and also restrictions
on the dyeing and printing of Asian textiles in England. In
response, in 1701, Parliament finally passed “an Act for the
more effectual imploying the poor, by incouraging the
manufactures of this kingdom.” From September 1701, it
decreed: “All wrought silks, bengals and stuffs, mixed with
silk of herba, of the manufacture of Persia, China, or EastIndia, all Calicoes painted, dyed, printed, or stained there,
which are or shall be imported into this kingdom, shall not
be worn.”
It was now illegal to wear Asian silks and calicoes in
England. But it was still possible to import them for reexport
to Europe or elsewhere, in particular to the American
colonies. Moreover, plain calicoes could be imported and
finished in England, and muslins were exempt from the ban.
After a long struggle, these loopholes, as the domestic
woolen textile manufacturers viewed them, were closed by
the Calicoe Act of 1721: “After December 25, 1722, it shall
not be lawful for any person or persons whatsoever to use
or wear in Great Britain, in any garment or apparel
whatsoever, any printed, painted, stained or dyed Calicoe.”
Though this act removed competition from Asia for English
woolens, it still left an active domestic cotton and linen
industry competing against the woolens: cotton and linen
were mixed to produce a popular cloth called fustian.
Having excluded Asian competition, the wool industry now
turned to clamp down on linen. Linen was primarily made in
Scotland and Ireland, which gave some scope to an
English coalition to demand those countries’ exclusion from
English markets. However, there were limits to the power of
the woolen manufacturers. Their new attempts encountered
strong opposition from fustian producers in the burgeoning
industrial centers of Manchester, Lancaster, and Liverpool.
The pluralistic political institutions implied that all these
different groups now had access to the policy process in
Parliament via voting and, more important, petitioning.
Though the petitions flew from the pens of both sides,
amassing signatures for and against, the outcome of this
conflict was a victory for the new interests against those of
the wool industry. The Manchester Act of 1736 agreed that
“great quantities of stuffs made from linen yarn and cotton
wool have for several years past been manufactured, and
have been printed and painted within this kingdom of Great
Britain.” It then went on to assert that “nothing in the said
recited Act [of 1721] shall extend or be construed to
prohibit the wearing or using in apparel, household stuff,
furniture or otherwise, any sort of stuff made out of linen
yarn and cotton wool, manufactured and printed or painted
with any colour or colours within the kingdom of Great
Britain.”
The Manchester Act was a significant victory for the
nascent cotton manufacturers. But its historical and
economic significance was in fact much greater. First, it
demonstrated the limits of entry barriers that the pluralistic
political institutions of parliamentary England would permit.
Second, over the next half century, technological
innovations in the manufacture of cotton cloth would play a
central role in the Industrial Revolution and fundamentally
transform society by introducing the factory system.
After 1688, though domestically a level playing field
emerged, internationally Parliament strove to tilt it. This was
evident not only from the Calicoe Acts but also from the
Navigation Acts, the first of which was passed in 1651, and
they remained in force with alternations for the next two
hundred years. The aim of these acts was to facilitate
England’s monopolization of international trade—though
crucially this was monopolization not by the state but by the
private sector. The basic principle was that English trade
should be carried in English ships. The acts made it illegal
for foreign ships to transport goods from outside Europe to
England or its colonies, and it was similarly illegal for thirdparty countries’ ships to ship goods from a country
elsewhere in Europe to England. This advantage for
English traders and manufacturers naturally increased their
profits and may have further encouraged innovation in
these new and highly profitable activities.
By 1760 the combination of all these factors—improved
and new property rights, improved infrastructure, a changed
fiscal regime, greater access to finance, and aggressive
protection of traders and manufacturers—was beginning to
have an effect. After this date, there was a jump in the
number of patented inventions, and the great flowering of
technological change that was to be at the heart of the
Industrial Revolution began to be evident. Innovations took
place on many fronts, reflecting the improved institutional
environment. One crucial area was power, most famously
the transformations in the use of the steam engine that
were a result of James Watt’s ideas in the 1760s.
Watt’s initial breakthrough was to introduce a separate
condensing chamber for the steam so that the cylinder that
housed the piston could be kept continually hot, instead of
having to be warmed up and cooled down. He
subsequently developed many other ideas, including much
more efficient methods of converting the motion of the
steam engine into useful power, notably his “sun and
planets” gear system. In all these areas technological
innovations built on earlier work by others. In the context of
the steam engine, this included early work by English
inventor Thomas Newcomen and also by Dionysius Papin,
a French physicist and inventor.
The story of Papin’s invention is another example of how,
under extractive institutions, the threat of creative
destruction impeded technological change. Papin
developed a design for a “steam digester” in 1679, and in
1690 he extended this into a piston engine. In 1705 he
used this rudimentary engine to build the world’s first
steamboat. Papin was by this time a professor of
mathematics at the University of Marburg, in the German
state of Kassel. He decided to steam the boat down the
river Fulda to the river Weser. Any boat making this trip
was forced to stop at the city of Münden. At that time, river
traffic on the Fulda and Weser was the monopoly of a guild
of boatmen. Papin must have sensed that there might be
trouble. His friend and mentor, the famous German
physicist Gottfried Leibniz, wrote to the Elector of Kassel,
the head of state, petitioning that Papin should be allowed
to “… pass unmolested …” through Kassel. Yet Leibniz’s
petition was rebuffed and he received the curt answer that
“the Electoral Councillors have found serious obstacles in
the way of granting the above petition, and, without giving
their reasons, have directed me to inform you of their
decision, and that in consequence the request is not
granted by his Electoral Highness.” Undeterred, Papin
decided to make the journey anyway. When his steamer
arrived at Münden, the boatmen’s guild first tried to get a
local judge to impound the ship, but was unsuccessful. The
boatmen then set upon Papin’s boat and smashed it and
the steam engine to pieces. Papin died a pauper and was
buried in an unmarked grave. In Tudor or Stuart England,
Papin might have received similar hostile treatment, but
this all changed after 1688. Indeed, Papin was intending to
sail his boat to London before it was destroyed.
In metallurgy, key contributions were made in the 1780s
by Henry Cort, who introduced new techniques for dealing
with impurities in iron, allowing for a much better quality
wrought iron to be produced. This was critical for the
manufacture of machine parts, nails, and tools. The
production of vast quantities of wrought iron using Cort’s
techniques was facilitated by the innovations of Abraham
Darby and his sons, who pioneered the use of coal to smelt
iron beginning in 1709. This process was enhanced in
1762 by the adaptation, by John Smeaton, of water power
to operate blowing cylinders in making coke. After this,
charcoal vanished from the production of iron, to be
replaced by coal, which was much cheaper and more
readily available.
Even though innovation is obviously cumulative, there
was a distinct acceleration in the middle of the eighteenth
century. In no place was this more visible than in textile
production. The most basic operation in the production of
textiles is spinning, which involves taking plant or animal
fibers, such as cotton or wool, and twisting them together to
form yarn. This yarn is then woven to make up textiles. One
of the great technological innovations of the medieval
period was the spinning wheel, which replaced hand
spinning. This invention appeared around 1280 in Europe,
probably disseminating from the Middle East. The methods
of spinning did not change until the eighteenth century.
Significant innovations began in 1738, when Lewis Paul
patented a new method of spinning using rollers to replace
human hands to draw out the fibers being spun. The
machine did not work well, however, and it was the
innovations of Richard Arkwright and James Hargreaves
that truly revolutionized spinning.
In 1769 Arkwright, one of the dominant figures of the
Industrial Revolution, patented his “water frame,” which was
a huge improvement over Lewis’s machine. He formed a
partnership with Jedediah Strutt and Samuel Need, who
were hosiery manufacturers. In 1771 they built one of the
world’s first factories, at Cromford. The new machines were
powered by water, but Arkwright later made the crucial
transition to steam power. By 1774 his firm employed six
hundred workers, and he expanded aggressively,
eventually setting up factories in Manchester, Matlock,
Bath, and New Lanark in Scotland. Arkwright’s innovations
were complemented by Hargreaves’s invention in 1764 of
the spinning jenny, which was further developed by Samuel
Crompton in 1779 into the “mule,” and later by Richard
Roberts into the “self-acting mule.” The effects of these
innovations were truly revolutionary: earlier in the century, it
took 50,000 hours for hand spinners to spin one hundred
pounds of cotton. Arkwright’s water frame could do it in 300
hours, and the self-acting mule in 135.
Along with the mechanization of spinning came the
mechanization of weaving. An important first step was the
invention of the flying shuttle by John Kay in 1733. Though it
initially simply increased the productivity of hand weavers,
its most enduring impact would be in opening the way to
mechanized weaving. Building on the flying shuttle, Edmund
Cartwright introduced the power loom in 1785, a first step
in a series of innovations that would lead to machines
replacing manual skills in weaving as they were also doing
in spinning.
The English textile industry not only was the driving force
behind the Industrial Revolution but also revolutionized the
world economy. English exports, led by cotton textiles,
doubled between 1780 and 1800. It was the growth in this
sector that pulled ahead the whole economy. The
combination of technological and organizational innovation
provides the model for economic progress that transformed
the economies of the world that became rich.
New people with new ideas were crucial to this
transformation. Consider innovation in transportation. In
England there were several waves of such innovations: first
canals, then roads, and finally railways. In each of these
waves the innovators were new men. Canals started to
develop in England after 1770, and by 1810 they had linked
up many of the most important manufacturing areas. As the
Industrial Revolution unfolded, canals played an important
role in reducing transportation costs for moving around the
bulky new finished industrial goods, such as cotton textiles,
and the inputs that went into them, particularly raw cotton
and coal for the steam engines. Early innovators in building
canals were men such as James Brindley, who was
employed by the Duke of Bridgewater to build the
Bridgewater Canal, which ended up linking the key
industrial city of Manchester to the port of Liverpool. Born in
rural Derbyshire, Brindley was a millwright by profession.
His reputation for finding creative solutions to engineering
problems came to the attention of the duke. He had no
previous experience with transportation problems, which
also was true of other great canal engineers such as
Thomas Telford, who started life as a stonemason, or John
Smeaton, an instrument maker and engineer.
Just as the great canal engineers had no previous
connection to transportation, neither did the great road and
railway engineers. John McAdam, who invented tarmac
around 1816, was the second son of a minor aristocrat.
The first steam train was built by Richard Trevithick in 1804.
Trevithick’s father was involved in mining in Cornwall, and
Richard entered the same business at an early age,
becoming fascinated by steam engines used for pumping
out the mines. More significant were the innovations of
George Stephenson, the son of illiterate parents and the
inventor of the famous train “The Rocket,” who began work
as an engineman at a coal mine.
New men also drove the critical cotton textile industry.
Some of the pioneers of this new industry were people who
had previously been heavily involved in the production and
trade of woolen cloths. John Foster, for example, employed
seven hundred handloom weavers in the woolen industry at
the time he switched to cotton and opened Black Dyke
Mills in 1835. But men such as Foster were a minority. Only
about one-fifth of the leading industrialists at this time had
previously been involved in anything like manufacturing
activities. This is not surprising. For one, the cotton industry
developed in new towns in the north of England. Factories
were a completely new way of organizing production. The
woolen industry had been organized in a very different way,
by “putting out” materials to individuals in their homes, who
spun and wove on their own. Most of those in the woolen
industry were therefore ill equipped to switch to cotton, as
Foster did. Newcomers were needed to develop and use
the new technologies. The rapid expansion of cotton
decimated the wool industry—creative destruction in
action.
Creative destruction redistributes not simply income and
wealth, but also political power, as William Lee learned
when he found the authorities so unreceptive to his
invention because they feared its political consequences.
As the industrial economy expanded in Manchester and
Birmingham, the new factory owners and middle-class
groups that emerged around them began to protest their
disenfranchisement and the government policies opposed
to their interests. Their prime candidate was the Corn
Laws, which banned the import of “corn”—all grains and
cereals, but principally wheat—if the price got too low, thus
ensuring that the profits of large landowners were kept high.
This policy was very good for big landowners who
produced wheat, but bad for manufacturers, because they
had to pay higher wages to compensate for the high price
of bread.
With workers concentrated into new factories and
industrial centers, it became easier to organize and riot. By
the 1820s, the political exclusion of the new manufacturers
and manufacturing centers was becoming untenable. On
August 16, 1819, a meeting to protest the political system
and the policies of the government was planned to be held
in St. Peter’s Fields, Manchester. The organizer was
Joseph Johnson, a local brush manufacturer and one of the
founders of the radical newspaper the Manchester
Observer. Other organizers included John Knight, a cotton
manufacturer and reformer, and John Thacker Saxton,
editor of the Manchester Observer. Sixty thousand
protestors gathered, many holding banners such as “No
Corn Laws,” “Universal Suffrage,” and “Vote by Ballot”
(meaning voting should take place secretly, not openly, as it
did in 1819). The authorities were very nervous about the
meeting, and a force of six hundred cavalry of the Fifteenth
Hussars had been assembled. As the speeches began, a
local magistrate decided to issue a warrant for the arrest of
the speakers. As police tried to enforce the warrant, they
met with the opposition of the crowd, and fighting broke out.
At this point the Hussars charged the crowd. Within a few
chaotic minutes, eleven people were dead and probably six
hundred wounded. The Manchester Observer called it the
Peterloo Massacre.
But given the changes that had already taken place in
economic and political institutions, long-run repression was
not a solution in England. The Peterloo Massacre would
remain an isolated incident. Following the riot, the political
institutions in England gave way to the pressure, and the
destabilizing threat of much wider social unrest, particularly
after the 1830 revolution in France against Charles X, who
had tried to restore the absolutism destroyed by the French
Revolution of 1789. In 1832 the government passed the
First Reform Act. It enfranchised Birmingham, Leeds,
Manchester, and Sheffield, and broadened the base of
voting so that manufacturers could be represented in
Parliament. The consequent shift in political power moved
policy in the direction favored by these newly represented
interests; in 1846 they managed to get the hated Corn
Laws repealed, demonstrating again that creative
destruction meant a redistribution not just of income, but
also of political power. And naturally, changes in the
distribution of political power in time would lead to a further
redistribution of income.
It was the inclusive nature of English institutions that
allowed this process to take place. Those who suffered
from and feared creative destruction were no longer able to
stop it.
WHY IN ENGLAND?
The Industrial Revolution started and made its biggest
strides in England because of her uniquely inclusive
economic institutions. These in turn were built on
foundations laid by the inclusive political institutions brought
about by the Glorious Revolution. It was the Glorious
Revolution that strengthened and rationalized property
rights, improved financial markets, undermined statesanctioned monopolies in foreign trade, and removed the
barriers to the expansion of industry. It was the Glorious
Revolution that made the political system open and
responsive to the economic needs and aspirations of
society. These inclusive economic institutions gave men of
talent and vision such as James Watt the opportunity and
incentive to develop their skills and ideas and influence the
system in ways that benefited them and the nation. Naturally
these men, once they had become successful, had the
same urges as any other person. They wanted to block
others from entering their businesses and competing
against them and feared the process of creative
destruction that might put them out of business, as they had
previously bankrupted others. But after 1688 this became
harder to accomplish. In 1775 Richard Arkwright took out
an encompassing patent that he hoped would give him a
monopoly on the rapidly expanding cotton spinning industry
in the future. He could not get the courts to enforce it.
Why did this unique process start in England and why in
the seventeenth century? Why did England develop
pluralistic political institutions and break away from
extractive institutions? As we have seen, the political
developments leading up to the Glorious Revolution were
shaped by several interlinked processes. Central was the
political conflict between absolutism and its opponents. The
outcome of this conflict not only put a stop to the attempts to
create a renewed and stronger absolutism in England, but
also empowered those wishing to fundamentally change
the institutions of society. The opponents of absolutism did
not simply attempt to build a different type of absolutism.
This was not simply the House of Lancaster defeating the
House of York in the War of the Roses. Instead, the
Glorious Revolution involved the emergence of a new
regime based on constitutional rule and pluralism.
This outcome was a consequence of the drift in English
institutions and the way they interacted with critical
junctures. We saw in the previous chapter how feudal
institutions were created in Western Europe after the
collapse of the Western Roman Empire. Feudalism spread
throughout most of Europe, West and East. But as chapter
4 showed, Western and Eastern Europe began to diverge
radically after the Black Death. Small differences in political
and economic institutions meant that in the West the
balance of power led to institutional improvement; in the
East, to institutional deterioration. But this was not a path
that would necessarily and inexorably lead to inclusive
institutions. Many more crucial turns would have to be taken
on the way. Though the Magna Carta had attempted to
establish some basic institutional foundations for
constitutional rule, many other parts of Europe, even
Eastern Europe, saw similar struggles with similar
documents. Yet, after the Black Death, Western Europe
significantly drifted away from the East. Documents such as
the Magna Carta started to have more bite in the West. In
the East, they came to mean little. In England, even before
the conflicts of the seventeenth century, the norm was
established that the king could not raise new taxes without
the consent of Parliament. No less important was the slow,
incremental drift of power away from elites to citizens more
generally, as exemplified by the political mobilization of
rural communities, seen in England with such moments as
the Peasants’ Revolt of 1381.
This drift of institutions now interacted with another
critical juncture caused by the massive expansion of trade
into the Atlantic. As we saw in chapter 4, one crucial way in
which this influenced future institutional dynamics
depended on whether or not the Crown was able to
monopolize this trade. In England the somewhat greater
power of Parliament meant that the Tudor and Stuart
monarchs could not do so. This created a new class of
merchants and businessmen, who aggressively opposed
the plan to create absolutism in England. By 1686 in
London, for example, there were 702 merchants exporting
to the Caribbean and 1,283 importing. North America had
691 exporting and 626 importing merchants. They
employed warehousemen, sailors, captains, dockworkers,
clerks—all of whom broadly shared their interests. Other
vibrant ports, such as Bristol, Liverpool, and Portsmouth,
were similarly full of such merchants. These new men
wanted and demanded different economic institutions, and
as they got wealthier through trade, they became more
powerful. The same forces were at work in France, Spain,
and Portugal. But there the kings were much more able to
control trade and its profits. The type of new group that was
to transform England did emerge in those countries, but
was considerably smaller and weaker.
When the Long Parliament sat and the Civil War broke
out in 1642, these merchants primarily sided with the
parliamentary cause. In the 1670s they were heavily
involved in the formation of the Whig Party, to oppose
Stuart absolutism, and in 1688 they would be pivotal in
deposing James II. So the expanding trade opportunities
presented by the Americas, the mass entry of English
merchants into this trade and the economic development of
the colonies, and the fortunes they made in the process,
tipped the balance of power in the struggle between the
monarchy and those opposed to absolutism.
Perhaps most critically, the emergence and
empowerment of diverse interests—ranging from the
gentry, a class of commercial farmers that had emerged in
the Tudor period, to different types of manufacturers to
Atlantic traders—meant that the coalition against Stuart
absolutism was not only strong but also broad. This
coalition was strengthened even more by the formation of
the Whig Party in the 1670s, which provided an
organization to further its interests. Its empowerment was
what underpinned pluralism following the Glorious
Revolution. If all those fighting against the Stuarts had the
same interests and the same background, the overthrow of
the Stuart monarchy would have been much more likely to
be a replay of the House of Lancaster versus the House of
York, pitting one group against another narrow set of
interests, and ultimately replacing and re-creating the same
or a different form of extractive institutions. A broad
coalition meant that there would be greater demands for
the creation of pluralist political institutions. Without some
sort of pluralism, there would be a danger that one of the
diverse interests would usurp power at the expense of the
rest. The fact that Parliament after 1688 represented such
a broad coalition was a crucial factor in making members
of Parliament listen to petitions, even when they came from
people outside of Parliament and even from those without a
vote. This was a crucial factor in preventing attempts by
one group to create a monopoly at the expense of the rest,
as wool interests tried to do before the Manchester Act.
The Glorious Revolution was a momentous event
precisely because it was led by an emboldened broad
coalition and further empowered this coalition, which
managed to forge a constitutional regime with constraints
on the power of both the executive and, equally crucially,
any one of its members. It was, for example, these
constraints that prevented the wool manufacturers from
being able to crush the potential competition from the
cotton and fustian manufacturers. Thus this broad coalition
was essential in the lead-up to a strong Parliament after
1688, but it also meant that there were checks within
Parliament against any single group becoming too powerful
and abusing its power. It was the critical factor in the
emergence of pluralistic political institutions. The
empowerment of such a broad coalition also played an
important role in the persistence and strengthening of these
inclusive economic and political institutions, as we will see
in chapter 11.
Still none of this made a truly pluralistic regime inevitable,
and its emergence was in part a consequence of the
contingent path of history. A coalition that was not too
different was able to emerge victorious from the English
Civil War against the Stuarts, but this only led to Oliver
Cromwell’s dictatorship. The strength of this coalition was
also no guarantee that absolutism would be defeated.
James II could have defeated William of Orange. The path
of major institutional change was, as usual, no less
contingent than the outcome of other political conflicts. This
was so even if the specific path of institutional drift that
created the broad coalition opposed to absolutism and the
critical juncture of Atlantic trading opportunities stacked the
cards against the Stuarts. In this instance, therefore,
contingency and a broad coalition were deciding factors
underpinning the emergence of pluralism and inclusive
institutions.
8.
NOT ON OUR TURF: BARRIERS TO DEVELOPMENT
NO PRINTING ALLOWED
IN 1445 IN THE GERMAN city of Mainz, Johannes Gutenberg
unveiled an innovation with profound consequences for
subsequent economic history: a printing press based on
movable type. Until then, books either had to be handcopied by scribes, a very slow and laborious process, or
they were block-printed with specific pieces of wood cut for
printing each page. Books were few and far between, and
very expensive. After Gutenberg’s invention, things began
to change. Books were printed and became more readily
available. Without this innovation, mass literacy and
education would have been impossible.
In Western Europe, the importance of the printing press
was quickly recognized. In 1460 there was already a
printing press across the border, in Strasbourg, France. By
the late 1460s the technology had spread throughout Italy,
with presses in Rome and Venice, soon followed by
Florence, Milan, and Turin. By 1476 William Caxton had set
up a printing press in London, and two years later there
was one in Oxford. During the same period, printing spread
throughout the Low Countries, into Spain, and even into
Eastern Europe, with a press opening in Budapest in 1473
and in Cracow a year later.
Not everyone saw printing as a desirable innovation. As
early as 1485 the Ottoman sultan Bayezid II issued an edict
that Muslims were expressly forbidden from printing in
Arabic. This rule was further reinforced by Sultan Selim I in
1515. It was not until 1727 that the first printing press was
allowed in the Ottoman lands. Then Sultan Ahmed III issued
a decree granting İbrahim Müteferrika permission to set up
a press. Even this belated step was hedged with restraints.
Though the decree noted “the fortunate day this Western
technique will be unveiled like a bride and will not again be
hidden,” Müteferrika’s printing was going to be closely
monitored. The decree stated:
so that the printed books will be free from
printing mistakes, the wise, respected and
meritorious religious scholars specializing in
Islamic Law, the excellent Kadi of Istanbul,
Mevlana İshak, and Selaniki’s Kadi, Mevlana
Sahib, and Galata’s Kadi, Mevlana Asad,
may their merits be increased, and from the
illustrious religious orders, the pillar of the
righteous religious scholars, the Sheykh of
the Kasim Paşa Mevlevihane, Mevlana
Musa, may his wisdom and knowledge
increase, will oversee the proofreading.
Müteferrika was allowed to set up a printing press, but
whatever he printed had to be vetted by a panel of three
religious and legal scholars, the Kadis. Maybe the wisdom
and knowledge of the Kadis, like everybody else’s, would
have increased much faster had the printing press been
more readily available. But that was not to be, even after
Müteferrika was given permission to set up his press.
Not surprisingly Müteferrika printed few books in the end,
only seventeen between 1729, when the press began to
operate, and 1743, when he stopped working. His family
tried to continue the tradition, but they managed to print only
another seven books by the time they finally gave up in
1797. Outside of the core of the Ottoman Empire in Turkey,
printing lagged even further behind. In Egypt, for instance,
the first printing press was set up only in 1798, by
Frenchmen who were part of the abortive attempt by
Napoleon Bonaparte to capture the country. Until well into
the second half of the nineteenth century, book production
in the Ottoman Empire was still primarily undertaken by
scribes hand-copying existing books. In the early
eighteenth century, there were reputed to be eighty
thousand such scribes active in Istanbul.
This opposition to the printing press had the obvious
consequences for literacy, education, and economic
success. In 1800 probably only 2 to 3 percent of the citizens
of the Ottoman Empire were literate, compared with 60
percent of adult males and 40 percent of adult females in
England. In the Netherlands and Germany, literacy rates
were even higher. The Ottoman lands lagged far behind the
European countries with the lowest educational attainment
in this period, such as Portugal, where probably only
around 20 percent of adults could read and write.
Given the highly absolutist and extractive Ottoman
institutions, the sultan’s hostility to the printing press is easy
to understand. Books spread ideas and make the
population much harder to control. Some of these ideas
may be valuable new ways to increase economic growth,
but others may be subversive and challenge the existing
political and social status quo. Books also undermine the
power of those who control oral knowledge, since they
make that knowledge readily available to anyone who can
master literacy. This threatened to undermine the existing
status quo, where knowledge was controlled by elites. The
Ottoman sultans and religious establishment feared the
creative destruction that would result. Their solution was to
forbid printing.
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION created a critical juncture that
affected almost every country. Some nations, such as
England, not only allowed, but actively encouraged,
commerce, industrialization, and entrepreneurship, and
grew rapidly. Many, such as the Ottoman Empire, China,
and other absolutist regimes, lagged behind as they
blocked or at the very least did nothing to encourage the
spread of industry. Political and economic institutions
shaped the response to technological innovation, creating
once again the familiar pattern of interaction between
existing institutions and critical junctures leading to
divergence in institutions and economic outcomes.
The Ottoman Empire remained absolutist until it
collapsed at the end of the First World War, and was thus
able to successfully oppose or impede innovations such as
the printing press and the creative destruction that would
have resulted. The reason that the economic changes that
took place in England did not happen in the Ottoman
Empire is the natural connection between extractive,
absolutist political institutions and extractive economic
institutions. Absolutism is rule unconstrained by law or the
wishes of others, though in reality absolutists rule with the
support of some small group or elite. In nineteenth-century
Russia, for example, the tsars were absolutist rulers
supported by a nobility that represented about 1 percent of
the total population. This narrow group organized political
institutions to perpetuate their power. There was no
Parliament or political representation of other groups in
Russian society until 1905, when the tsar created the
Duma, though he quickly undermined what few powers he
had given to it. Unsurprisingly, economic institutions were
extractive, organized to make the tsar and nobility as
wealthy as possible. The basis of this, as of many
extractive economic systems, was a mass system of labor
coercion and control, in the particularly pernicious form of
Russian serfdom.
Absolutism was not the only type of political institution
preventing industrialization. Though absolutist regimes
were not pluralistic and feared creative destruction, many
had centralized states, or at least states that were
centralized enough to impose bans on innovations such as
the printing press. Even today, countries such as
Afghanistan, Haiti, and Nepal have national states that lack
political centralization. In sub-Saharan Africa the situation is
even worse. As we argued earlier, without a centralized
state to provide order and enforce rules and property rights,
inclusive institutions could not emerge. We will see in this
chapter that in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (for
example, Somalia and southern Sudan) a major barrier to
industrialization was the lack of any form of political
centralization. Without these natural prerequisites,
industrialization had no chance of getting off the ground.
Absolutism and a lack of, or weak, political centralization
are two different barriers to the spread of industry. But they
are also connected; both are kept in place by fear of
creative destruction and because the process of political
centralization often creates a tendency toward absolutism.
Resistance to political centralization is motivated by
reasons similar to resistance to inclusive political
institutions: fear of losing political power, this time to the
newly centralizing state and those who control it. We saw in
the previous chapter how the process of political
centralization under the Tudor monarchy in England
increased demands for voice and representation by
different local elites in national political institutions as a way
of staving off this loss of political power. A stronger
Parliament was created, ultimately enabling the emergence
of inclusive political institutions.
But in many other cases, just the opposite takes place,
and the process of political centralization also ushers in an
era of greater absolutism. This is illustrated by the origins
of Russian absolutism, which was forged by Peter the
Great between 1682 and his death in 1725. Peter built a
new capital at Saint Petersburg, stripping away power from
the old aristocracy, the Boyars, in order to create a modern
bureaucratic state and modern army. He even abolished
the Boyar Duma that had made him tsar. Peter introduced
the Table of Ranks, a completely new social hierarchy
whose essence was service to the tsar. He also took
control over the Church, just as Henry VIII did when
centralizing the state in England. With this process of
political centralization, Peter was taking power away from
others and redirecting it toward himself. His military reforms
led the traditional royal guards, the Streltsy, to rebel. Their
revolt was followed by others, such as the Bashkirs in
Central Asia and the Bulavin Rebellion. None succeeded.
Though Peter the Great’s project of political
centralization was a success and the opposition was
overcome, the type of forces that opposed state
centralization, such as the Streltsy, who saw their power
being challenged, won out in many parts of the world, and
the resulting lack of state centralization meant the
persistence of a different type of extractive political
institutions.
In this chapter, we will see how during the critical juncture
created by the Industrial Revolution, many nations missed
the boat and failed to take advantage of the spread of
industry. Either they had absolutist political and extractive
economic institutions, as in the Ottoman Empire, or they
lacked political centralization, as in Somalia.
A SMALL DIFFERENCE THAT MATTERED
Absolutism crumbled in England during the seventeenth
century but got stronger in Spain. The Spanish equivalent of
the English Parliament, the Cortes, existed in name only.
Spain was forged in 1492 with the merger of the kingdoms
of Castile and Aragon via the marriage of Queen Isabella
and King Ferdinand. That date coincided with the end of
the Reconquest, the long process of ousting the Arabs who
had occupied the south of Spain, and built the great cities
of Granada, Cordova, and Seville, since the eighth century.
The last Arab state on the Iberian Peninsula, Granada, fell
to Spain at the same time Christopher Columbus arrived in
the Americas and started claiming lands for Queen Isabella
and King Ferdinand, who had funded his voyage.
The merger of the crowns of Castile and Aragon and
subsequent dynastic marriages and inheritances created a
European superstate. Isabella died in 1504, and her
daughter Joanna was crowned queen of Castile. Joanna
was married to Philip of the House of Habsburg, the son of
the emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, Maximilian I. In
1516 Charles, Joanna and Philip’s son, was crowned
Charles I of Castile and Aragon. When his father died,
Charles inherited the Netherlands and Franche-Comté,
which he added to his territories in Iberia and the
Americas. In 1519, when Maximilian I died, Charles also
inherited the Habsburg territories in Germany and became
Emperor Charles V of the Holy Roman Empire. What had
been a merger of two Spanish kingdoms in 1492 became
a multicontinental empire, and Charles continued the
project of strengthening the absolutist state that Isabella
and Ferdinand had begun.
The effort to build and consolidate absolutism in Spain
was massively aided by the discovery of precious metals in
the Americas. Silver had already been discovered in large
quantities in Guanajuato, in Mexico, by the 1520s, and
soon thereafter in Zacatecas, Mexico. The conquest of
Peru after 1532 created even more wealth for the
monarchy. This came in the form of a share, the “royal fifth,”
in any loot from conquest and also from mines. As we saw
in chapter 1, a mountain of silver was discovered in Potosí
by the 1540s, pouring more wealth into the coffers of the
Spanish king.
At the time of the merger of Castile and Aragon, Spain
was among the most economically successful parts of
Europe. After its absolutist political system solidified, it
went into relative and then, after 1600, absolute economic
decline. Almost the first acts of Isabella and Ferdinand after
the Reconquest was the expropriation of the Jews. The
approximately two hundred thousand Jews in Spain were
given four months to leave. They had to sell off all their land
and assets at very low prices and were not allowed to take
any gold or silver out of the country. A similar human
tragedy was played out just over one hundred years later.
Between 1609 and 1614, Philip III expelled the Moriscos,
the descendants of the citizens of the former Arab states in
the south of Spain. Just as with the Jews, the Moriscos had
to leave with only what they could carry and were not
allowed to take with them any gold, silver, or other precious
metals.
Property rights were insecure in other dimensions under
Habsburg rule in Spain. Philip II, who succeeded his father,
Charles V, in 1556, defaulted on his debts in 1557 and
again in 1560, ruining the Fugger and Welser banking
families. The role of the German banking families was then
assumed by Genoese banking families, who were in turn
ruined by subsequent Spanish defaults during the reign of
the Habsburgs in 1575, 1596, 1607, 1627, 1647, 1652,
1660, and 1662.
Just as crucial as the instability of property rights in
absolutist Spain was the impact of absolutism on the
economic institutions of trade and the development of the
Spanish colonial empire. As we saw in the previous
chapter, the economic success of England was based on
rapid mercantile expansion. Though, compared with Spain
and Portugal, England was a latecomer to Atlantic trade,
she allowed for relatively broad-based participation in
trading and colonial opportunities. What filled the Crown’s
coffers in Spain enriched the newly emerging merchant
class in England. It was this merchant class that would form
the basis of early England economic dynamism and
become the bulwark of the anti-absolutist political coalition.
In Spain these processes that led to economic progress
and institutional change did not take place. After the
Americas had been discovered, Isabella and Ferdinand
organized trade between their new colonies and Spain via
a guild of merchants in Seville. These merchants controlled
all trade and made sure that the monarchy got its share of
the wealth of the Americas. There was no free trade with
any of the colonies, and each year a large flotilla of ships
would return from the Americas bringing precious metals
and valuable goods to Seville. The narrow, monopolized
base of this trade meant that no broad class of merchants
could emerge via trading opportunities with the colonies.
Even trade within the Americas was heavily regulated. For
example, a merchant in a colony such as New Spain,
roughly modern Mexico, could not trade directly with anyone
in New Granada, modern Colombia. These restrictions on
trade within the Spanish Empire reduced its economic
prosperity and also, indirectly, the potential benefits that
Spain could have gained by trading with another, more
prosperous empire. Nevertheless, they were attractive
because they guaranteed that the silver and gold would
keep flowing to Spain.
The extractive economic institutions of Spain were a
direct result of the construction of absolutism and the
different path, compared with England, taken by political
institutions. Both the Kingdom of Castile and the Kingdom
of Aragon had their Cortes, a parliament representing the
different groups, or “estates,” of the kingdom. As with the
English Parliament, the Castilian Cortes needed to be
summoned to assent to new taxes. Nevertheless, the
Cortes in Castile and Aragon primarily represented the
major cities, rather than both the urban and rural areas, as
the English Parliament did. By the fifteenth century, it
represented only eighteen cities, each of whom sent two
deputies. In consequence, the Cortes did not represent as
broad a set of groups as the English Parliament did, and it
never developed as a nexus of diverse interests vying to
place constraints on absolutism. It could not legislate, and
even the scope of its powers with respect to taxation was
limited. This all made it easier for the Spanish monarchy to
sideline the Cortes in the process of consolidating its own
absolutism. Even with silver coming from the Americas,
Charles V and Philip II required ever-increasing tax
revenues to finance a series of expensive wars. In 1520
Charles V decided to present the Cortes with demands for
increased taxation. Urban elites used the moment to call for
much wider change in the Cortes and its powers. This
opposition turned violent and quickly became known as the
Comunero Rebellion. Charles was able to crush the
rebellion with loyal troops. Throughout the rest of the
sixteenth century, though, there was a continuous battle as
the Crown tried to wrest away from the Cortes what rights
to levy new taxes and increase old ones that it had. Though
this battle ebbed and flowed, it was ultimately won by the
monarchy. After 1664 the Cortes did not meet again until it
would be reconstructed during the Napoleonic invasions
almost 150 years later.
In England the defeat of absolutism in 1688 led not only
to pluralistic political institutions but also to the further
development of a much more effective centralized state. In
Spain the opposite happened as absolutism triumphed.
Though the monarchy emasculated the Cortes and
removed any potential constraints on its behavior, it
became increasingly difficult to raise taxes, even when
attempted by direct negotiations with individual cities.
While the English state was creating a modern, efficient tax
bureaucracy, the Spanish state was again moving in the
opposite direction. The monarchy was not only failing to
create secure property rights for entrepreneurs and
monopolizing trade, but it was also selling offices, often
making them hereditary, indulging in tax farming, and even
selling immunity from justice.
The consequences of these extractive political and
economic institutions in Spain were predictable. During the
seventeenth century, while England was moving toward
commercial growth and then rapid industrialization, Spain
was tailspinning toward widespread economic decline. At
the start of the century, one in five people in Spain was
living in urban areas. By the end, this figure had halved to
one in ten, in a process that corresponded to increasing
impoverishment of the Spanish population. Spanish
incomes fell, while England grew rich.
The persistence and the strengthening of absolutism in
Spain, while it was being uprooted in England, is another
example of small differences mattering during critical
junctures. The small differences were in the strengths and
nature of representative institutions; the critical juncture was
the discovery of the Americas. The interaction of these sent
Spain off on a very different institutional path from England.
The relatively inclusive economic institutions that resulted in
England created unprecedented economic dynamism,
culminating in the Industrial Revolution, while
industrialization did not stand a chance in Spain. By the
time industrial technology was spreading in many parts of
the world, the Spanish economy had declined so much that
there was not even a need for the Crown or the land-owning
elites in Spain to block industrialization.
FEAR OF INDUSTRY
Without the changes in political institutions and political
power similar to those that emerged in England after 1688,
there was little chance for absolutist countries to benefit
from the innovations and new technologies of the Industrial
Revolution. In Spain, for example, the lack of secure
property rights and the widespread economic decline
meant that people simply did not have the incentive to
make the necessary investments and sacrifices. In Russia
and Austria-Hungary, it wasn’t simply the neglect and
mismanagement of the elites and the insidious economic
slide under extractive institutions that prevented
industrialization; instead, the rulers actively blocked any
attempt to introduce these technologies and basic
investments in infrastructure such as railroads that could
have acted as their conduits.
At the time of the Industrial Revolution, in the eighteenth
and early nineteenth centuries, the political map of Europe
was quite different from how it is today. The Holy Roman
Empire, a patchwork quilt of more than four hundred
polities, most of which would eventually coalesce into
Germany, occupied most of Central Europe. The House of
Habsburg was still a major political force, and its empire,
known as the Habsburg or Austro-Hungarian Empire,
spread over a vast area of around 250,000 square miles,
even if it no longer included Spain, after the Bourbons had
taken over the Spanish throne in 1700. In terms of
population, it was the third-largest state in Europe and
comprised one-seventh of the population of Europe. In the
late eighteenth century the Habsburg lands included, in the
west, what is today Belgium, then known as the Austrian
Netherlands. The largest part, however, was the contiguous
block of lands based around Austria and Hungary, including
the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the north, and
Slovenia, Croatia, and large parts of Italy and Serbia to the
south. To the east it also incorporated much of what is
today Romania and Poland.
Merchants in the Habsburg domains were much less
important than in England, and serfdom prevailed in the
lands in Eastern Europe. As we saw in chapter 4, Hungary
and Poland were at the heart of the Second Serfdom of
Eastern Europe. The Habsburgs, unlike the Stuarts, were
successful in sustaining strongly absolutist rule. Francis I,
who ruled as the last emperor of the Holy Roman Empire,
between 1792 and 1806, and then emperor of AustriaHungary until his death in 1835, was a consummate
absolutist. He did not recognize any limitations on his
power and, above all, he wished to preserve the political
status quo. His basic strategy was opposing change, any
sort of change. In 1821 he made this clear in a speech,
characteristic of Habsburg rulers, he gave to the teachers
at a school in Laibach, asserting, “I do not need savants,
but good, honest citizens. Your task is to bring young men
up to be this. He who serves me must teach what I order
him. If anyone can’t do this, or comes with new ideas, he
can go, or I will remove him.”
The empress Maria Theresa, who reigned between 1740
and 1780, frequently responded to suggestions about how
to improve or change institutions by remarking. “Leave
everything as it is.” Nevertheless, she and her son Joseph
II, who was emperor between 1780 and 1790, were
responsible for an attempt to construct a more powerful
central state and more effective administrative system. Yet
they did this in the context of a political system with no real
constraints on their actions and with few elements of
pluralism. There was no national parliament that would
exert even a modicum of control on the monarch, only a
system of regional estates and diets, which historically had
some powers with respect to taxation and military
recruitment. There were even fewer controls on what the
Austro-Hungarian Habsburgs could do than there were on
Spanish monarchs, and political power was narrowly
concentrated.
As Habsburg absolutism strengthened in the eighteenth
century, the power of all non-monarchical institutions
weakened further. When a deputation of citizens from the
Austrian province of the Tyrol petitioned Francis for a
constitution, he responded, “So, you want a
constitution! … Now look, I don’t care for it, I will give you a
constitution but you must know that the soldiers obey me,
and I will not ask you twice if I need money … In any case I
advise you to be careful what you are going to say.” Given
this response, the Tyrolese leaders replied, “If thou thinkest
thus, it is better to have no constitution,” to which Francis
answered, “That is also my opinion.”
Francis dissolved the State Council that Maria Theresa
had used as a forum for consultation with her ministers.
From then on there would be no consultation or public
discussion of the Crown’s decisions. Francis created a
police state and ruthlessly censored anything that could be
regarded as mildly radical. His philosophy of rule was
characterized by Count Hartig, a long-standing aide, as the
“unabated maintenance of the sovereign’s authority, and a
denial of all claims on the part of the people to a
participation in that authority.” He was helped in all this by
Prince von Metternich, appointed as his foreign minister in
1809. Metternich’s power and influence actually outlasted
that of Francis, and he remained foreign minister for almost
forty years.
At the center of Habsburg economic institutions stood
the feudal order and serfdom. As one moved east within
the empire, feudalism became more intense, a reflection of
the more general gradient in economic institutions we saw
i n chapter 4, as one moved from Western to Eastern
Europe. Labor mobility was highly circumscribed, and
emigration was illegal. When the English philanthropist
Robert Owen tried to convince the Austrian government to
adopt some social reforms in order to ameliorate the
conditions of poor people, one of Metternich’s assistants,
Friedrich von Gentz, replied, “We do not desire at all that
the great masses shall become well off and
independent … How could we otherwise rule over them?”
In addition to serfdom, which completely blocked the
emergence of a labor market and removed the economic
incentives or initiative from the mass of the rural population,
Habsburg absolutism thrived on monopolies and other
restrictions on trade. The urban economy was dominated
by guilds, which restricted entry into professions. Until 1775
there were internal tariffs within Austria itself and in Hungary
until 1784. There were very high tariffs on imported goods,
with many explicit prohibitions on the import and export of
goods.
The suppression of markets and the creation of
extractive economic institutions are of course quite
characteristic of absolutism, but Francis went further. It was
not simply that extractive economic institutions removed the
incentive for individuals to innovate or adopt new
technology. We saw in chapter 2 how in the Kingdom of
Kongo attempts to promote the use of plows were
unsuccessful because people lacked any incentive, given
the extractive nature of the economic institutions. The king
of Kongo realized that if he could induce people to use
plows, agricultural productivity would be higher, generating
more wealth, which he could benefit from. This is a potential
incentive for all governments, even absolutist ones. The
problem in Kongo was that people understood that
whatever they produced could be confiscated by an
absolutist monarch, and therefore they had no incentive to
invest or use better technology. In the Habsburg lands,
Francis did not encourage his citizens to adopt better
technology; on the contrary, he actually opposed it, and
blocked the dissemination of technologies that people
would have been otherwise willing to adopt with the existing
economic institutions.
Opposition to innovation was manifested in two ways.
First, Francis I was opposed to the development of
industry. Industry led to factories, and factories would
concentrate poor workers in cities, particularly in the capital
city of Vienna. Those workers might then become
supporters for opponents of absolutism. His policies were
aimed at locking into place the traditional elites and the
political and economic status quo. He wanted to keep
society primarily agrarian. The best way to do this, Francis
believed, was to stop the factories being built in the first
place. This he did directly—for instance, in 1802, banning
the creation of new factories in Vienna. Instead of
encouraging the importation and adoption of new
machinery, the basis of industrialization, he banned it until
1811.
Second, he opposed the construction of railways, one of
the key new technologies that came with the Industrial
Revolution. When a plan to build a northern railway was put
before Francis I, he replied, “No, no, I will have nothing to
do with it, lest the revolution might come into the country.”
Since the government would not grant a concession to
build a steam railway, the first railway built in the empire
had to use horse-drawn carriages. The line, which ran
between the city of Linz, on the Danube, to the Bohemian
city of Budweis, on the Moldau River, was built with
gradients and corners, which meant that it was impossible
subsequently to convert it to steam engines. So it continued
with horse power until the 1860s. The economic potential
for railway development in the empire had been sensed
early by the banker Salomon Rothschild, the representative
in Vienna of the great banking family. Salomon’s brother
Nathan, who was based in England, was very impressed by
George Stephenson’s engine “The Rocket” and the
potential for steam locomotion. He contacted his brother to
encourage him to look for opportunities to develop railways
in Austria, since he believed that the family could make
large profits by financing railway development. Nathan
agreed, but the scheme went nowhere because Emperor
Francis again simply said no.
The opposition to industry and steam railways stemmed
from Francis’s concern about the creative destruction that
accompanied the development of a modern economy. His
main priorities were ensuring the stability of the extractive
institutions over which he ruled and protecting the
advantages of the traditional elites who supported him. Not
only was there little to gain from industrialization, which
would undermine the feudal order by attracting labor from
the countryside to the cities, but Francis also recognized
the threat that major economic changes would pose to his
political power. As a consequence, he blocked industry and
economic progress, locking in economic backwardness,
which manifested itself in many ways. For instance, as late
as 1883, when 90 percent of world iron output was
produced using coal, more than half of the output in the
Habsburg territories still used much less efficient charcoal.
Similarly, right up to the First World War, when the empire
collapsed, textile weaving was never fully mechanized but
still undertaken by hand.
Austria-Hungary was not alone in fearing industry.
Farther east, Russia had an equally absolutist set of
political institutions, forged by Peter the Great, as we saw
earlier in this chapter. Like Austria-Hungary, Russia’s
economic institutions were highly extractive, based on
serfdom, keeping at least half of the population tied to the
land. Serfs had to work for nothing three days a week on
the lands of their lords. They could not move, they lacked
freedom of occupation, and they could be sold at will by
their lord to another lord. The radical philosopher Peter
Kropotkin, one of the founders of modern anarchism, left a
vivid depiction of the way serfdom worked during the reign
of Tsar Nicholas I, who ruled Russia from 1825 until 1855.
He recalled from his childhood
stories of men and women torn from their
families and their villages and sold, lost in
gambling, or exchanged for a couple of
hunting dogs, and transported to some
remote part of Russia … of children taken
from their parents and sold to cruel or
dissolute masters; of flogging “in the stables,”
which occurred every day with unheard of
cruelty; of a girl who found her only salvation
in drowning herself; of an old man who had
grown grey-haired in his master’s service
and at last hanged himself under his master’s
window; and of revolts of serfs, which were
suppressed by Nicholas I’s generals by
flogging to death each tenth or fifth man taken
out of the ranks, and by laying waste the
village … As to the poverty which I saw during
our journeys in certain villages, especially in
those which belonged to the imperial family,
no words would be adequate to describe the
misery to readers who have not seen it.
Exactly as in Austria-Hungary, absolutism didn’t just
create a set of economic institutions that impeded the
prosperity of the society. There was a similar fear of
creative destruction and a fear of industry and the railways.
At the heart of this during the reign of Nicholas I was Count
Egor Kankrin, who served as finance minister between
1823 and 1844 and played a key role in opposing the
changes in society necessary for promoting economic
prosperity.
Kankrin’s policies were aimed at strengthening the
traditional political pillars of the regime, particularly the
landed aristocracy, and keeping the society rural and
agrarian. Upon becoming minister of finance, Kankrin
quickly opposed and reversed a proposal by the previous
finance minister, Gurev, to develop a government-owned
Commercial Bank to lend to industry. Instead, Kankrin
reopened the State Loan Bank, which had been closed
during the Napoleonic Wars. This bank was originally
created to lend to large landowners at subsidized rates, a
policy Kankrin approved of. The loans required the
applicants to put up serfs as “security,” or collateral, so that
only feudal landowners could get such loans. To finance the
State Loan Bank, Kankrin transferred assets from the
Commercial Bank, killing two birds with one stone: there
would now be little money left for industry.
Kankrin’s attitudes were presciently shaped by the fear
that economic change would bring political change, and so
were those of Tsar Nicholas. Nicholas’s assumption of
power in December 1825 had been almost aborted by an
attempted coup by military officers, the so-called
Decembrists, who had a radical program of social change.
Nicholas wrote to Grand Duke Mikhail: “Revolution is on
Russia’s doorstep, but I swear that it will not penetrate the
country while there is breath in my body.”
Nicholas feared the social changes that creating a
modern economy would bring. As he put it in a speech he
made to a meeting of manufacturers at an industrial exhibit
in Moscow:
both the state and manufacturers must turn
their attention to a subject, without which the
very factories would become an evil rather
than a blessing; this is the care of the
workers who increase in number annually.
They need energetic and paternal
supervision of their morals; without it this
mass of people will gradually be corrupted
and eventually turn into a class as miserable
as they are dangerous for their masters.
Just as with Francis I, Nicholas feared that the creative
destruction unleashed by a modern industrial economy
would undermine the political status quo in Russia. Urged
on by Nicholas, Kankrin took specific steps to slow the
potential for industry. He banned several industrial
exhibitions, which had previously been held periodically to
showcase new technology and facilitate technology
adoption.
In 1848 Europe was rocked by a series of revolutionary
outbursts. In response, A. A. Zakrevskii, the military
governor of Moscow, who was in charge of maintaining
public order, wrote to Nicholas: “For the preservation of
calm and prosperity, which at present time only Russia
enjoys, the government must not permit the gathering of
homeless and dissolute people, who will easily join every
movement, destroying social or private peace.” His advice
was brought before Nicholas’s ministers, and in 1849 a
new law was enacted that put severe limits on the number
of factories that could be opened in any part of Moscow. It
specifically forbade the opening of any new cotton or
woolen spinning mills and iron foundries. Other industries,
such as weaving and dyeing, had to petition the military
governor if they wanted to open new factories. Eventually
cotton spinning was explicitly banned. The law was
intended to stop any further concentration of potentially
rebellious workers in the city.
Opposition to railways accompanied opposition to
industry, exactly as in Austria-Hungary. Before 1842 there
was only one railway in Russia. This was the Tsarskoe Selo
Railway, which ran seventeen miles from Saint Petersburg
to the imperial residencies of Tsarskoe Selo and Pavlovsk.
Just as Kankrin opposed industry, he saw no reason to
promote railways, which he argued would bring a socially
dangerous mobility, noting that “railways do not always
result from natural necessity, but are more an object of
artificial need or luxury. They encourage unnecessary travel
from place to place, which is entirely typical of our time.”
Kankrin turned down numerous bids to build railways,
and it was only in 1851 that a line was built linking Moscow
and Saint Petersburg. Kankrin’s policy was continued by
Count Kleinmichel, who was made head of the main
administration of Transport and Public Buildings. This
institution became the main arbiter of railway construction,
and Kleinmichel used it as a platform to discourage their
construction. After 1849 he even used his power to censor
discussion in the newspapers of railway development.
Map 13 (opposite) shows the consequences of this logic.
While Britain and most of northwest Europe was
crisscrossed with railways in 1870, very few penetrated the
vast territory of Russia. The policy against railways was
only reversed after Russia’s conclusive defeat by British,
French, and Ottoman forces in the Crimean War, 1853–
1856, when the backwardness of its transportation network
was understood to be a serious liability for Russian
security. There was also little railway development in
Austria-Hungary outside of Austria and the western parts of
the empire, though the 1848 Revolutions had brought
change to these territories, particularly the abolition of
serfdom.
NO SHIPPING ALLOWED
Absolutism reigned not just in much of Europe but also in
Asia, and similarly prevented industrialization during the
critical juncture created by the Industrial Revolution. The
Ming and Qing dynasties of China and the absolutism of
the Ottoman Empire illustrate this pattern. Under the Song
dynasty, between 960 and 1279, China led the world in
many technological innovations. The Chinese invented
clocks, the compass, gunpowder, paper and paper money,
porcelain, and blast furnaces to make cast iron before
Europe did. They independently developed spinning
wheels and waterpower at more or less the same time that
these emerged at the other end of Eurasia. In
consequence, in 1500 standards of living were probably at
least as high in China as they were in Europe. For
centuries China also had a centralized state with a
meritocratically recruited civil service.
Yet China was absolutist, and the growth under the Song
dynasty was under extractive institutions. There was no
political representation for groups other than the monarchy
in society, nothing resembling a Parliament or a Cortes.
Merchants always had a precarious status in China, and
the great inventions of the Song were not spurred by
market incentives but were brought into existence under the
auspices, or even the orders, of the government. Little of
this was commercialized. The grip of the state tightened
during the Ming and Qing dynasties that followed the Song.
At the root of all this was the usual logic of extractive
institutions. As most rulers presiding over extractive
institutions, the absolutist emperors of China opposed
change, sought stability, and in essence feared creative
destruction.
This is best illustrated by the history of international trade.
As we have seen, the discovery of the Americas and the
way international trade was organized played a key role in
the political conflicts and institutional changes of early
modern Europe. In China, while private merchants were
commonly involved in trade within the country, the state
monopolized overseas trade. When the Ming dynasty came
to power in 1368, it was Emperor Hongwu who first ruled,
for thirty years. Hongwu was concerned that overseas trade
would be politically and socially destabilizing and he
allowed international trade to take place only if it were
organized by the government and only if it involved tribute
giving, and not commercial activity. Hongwu even executed
hundreds of people accused of trying to turn tribute
missions into commercial ventures. Between 1377 and
1397, no oceangoing tribute missions were allowed. He
banned private individuals from trading with foreigners and
would not allow Chinese to sail overseas.
In 1402 Emperor Yongle came to the throne and initiated
one of the most famous periods of Chinese history by
restarting government-sponsored foreign trade on a big
scale. Yongle sponsored Admiral Zheng He to undertake
six huge missions to Southeast and South Asia, Arabia,
and Africa. The Chinese knew about these places from a
long history of trading relations, but nothing had ever
happened on this scale before. The first fleet included
27,800 men and 62 large treasure ships, accompanied by
190 smaller ships, including ones specifically for carrying
freshwater, others for supplies, and others for troops. Yet
Emperor Yongle put a temporary stop on the missions after
the sixth one in 1422. This was made permanent by his
successor, Hongxi, who ruled from 1424 to 1425. Hongxi’s
premature death brought to the throne Emperor Xuande,
who at first allowed Zheng He a final mission, in 1433. But
after this, all overseas trade was banned. By 1436 the
construction of seagoing ships was even made illegal. The
ban on overseas trade was not lifted until 1567.
These events, though only the tip of the extractive iceberg
that prevented many economic activities deemed to be
potentially destabilizing, were to have a fundamental impact
on Chinese economic development. Just at the time when
international trade and the discovery of the Americas were
fundamentally transforming the institutions of England,
China was cutting itself off from this critical juncture and
turning inward. This inward turn did not end in 1567. The
Ming dynasty was overrun in 1644 by the Jurchen people,
the Manchus of inner Asia, who created the Qing dynasty. A
period of intense political instability then ensued. The Qings
engaged in mass expropriation of property and assets. In
the 1690s, T’ang Chen, a retired Chinese scholar and
failed merchant, wrote:
More than fifty years have passed since the
founding of the Ch’ing [Qing] dynasty, and the
empire grows poorer each day. Farmers are
destitute, artisans are destitute, merchants
are destitute, and officials too are destitute.
Grain is cheap, yet it is hard to eat one’s fill.
Cloth is cheap, yet it is hard to cover one’s
skin. Boatloads of goods travel from one
marketplace to another, but the cargoes must
be sold at a loss. Officials upon leaving their
posts discover they have no wherewithal to
support their households. Indeed the four
occupations are all impoverished.
In 1661 the emperor Kangxi ordered that all people living
along the coast from Vietnam to Chekiang—essentially the
entire southern coast, once the most commercially active
part of China—should move seventeen miles inland. The
coast was patrolled by troops to enforce the measure, and
until 1693 there was a ban on shipping everywhere on the
coast. This ban was periodically reimposed in the
eighteenth century, effectively stunting the emergence of
Chinese overseas trade. Though some did develop, few
were willing to invest when the emperor could suddenly
change his mind and ban trade, making investments in
ships, equipment, and trading relations worthless or even
worse.
The reasoning of the Ming and Qing states for opposing
international trade is by now familiar: the fear of creative
destruction. The leaders’ primary aim was political stability.
International trade was potentially destabilizing as
merchants were enriched and emboldened, as they were in
England during the era of Atlantic expansion. This was not
just what the rulers believed during the Ming and Qing
dynasties, but also the attitude of the rulers of the Song
dynasty, even if they were willing to sponsor technological
innovations and permit greater commercial freedom,
provided that this was under their control. Things got worse
under the Ming and Qing dynasties as the control of the
state on economic activity tightened and overseas trade
was banned. There were certainly markets and trade in
Ming and Qing China, and the government taxed the
domestic economy quite lightly. However, it did little to
support innovation, and it exchanged the development of
mercantile or industrial prosperity for political stability. The
consequence of all this absolutist control of the economy
was predictable: the Chinese economy was stagnant
throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries
while other economies were industrializing. By the time
Mao set up his communist regime in 1949, China had
become one of the poorest countries in the world.
THE ABSOLUTISM OF PRESTER JOHN
Absolutism as a set of political institutions and the
economic consequences that flowed from it were not
restricted to Europe and Asia. It was present in Africa, for
example, with the Kingdom of Kongo, as we saw in chapter
2. An even more durable example of African absolutism is
Ethiopia, or Abyssinia, whose roots we came across in
chapter 6, when we discussed the emergence of feudalism
after the decline of Aksum. Abyssinian absolutism was
even more long-lived than its European counterparts,
because it was faced with very different challenges and
critical junctures.
After the conversion of the Aksumite king Ezana to
Christianity, the Ethiopians remained Christian, and by the
fourteenth century they had become the focus of the myth of
King Prester John. Prester John was a Christian king who
had been cut off from Europe by the rise of Islam in the
Middle East. Initially his kingdom was thought to be located
in India. However, as European knowledge of India
increased, people realized that this was not true. The king
of Ethiopia, since he was a Christian, then became a
natural target for the myth. Ethiopian kings in fact tried hard
to forge alliances with European monarchs against Arab
invasions, sending diplomatic missions to Europe from at
least 1300 onward, even persuading the Portuguese king
to send soldiers.
These soldiers, along with diplomats, Jesuits, and
travelers wishing to meet Prester John, left many accounts
of Ethiopia. Some of the most interesting from an
economic point of view are by Francisco Álvares, a
chaplain accompanying a Portuguese diplomatic mission,
who was in Ethiopia from 1520 to 1527. In addition, there
are accounts by Jesuit Manoel de Almeida, who lived in
Ethiopia from 1624, and by John Bruce, a traveler who was
in the country between 1768 and 1773. The writings of
these people give a rich account of political and economic
institutions at the time in Ethiopia and leave no doubt that
Ethiopia was a perfect specimen of absolutism. There
were no pluralistic institutions of any kind, nor any checks
and constraints on the power of the emperor, who claimed
the right to rule on the basis of supposed descent from the
legendary King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba.
The consequence of absolutism was great insecurity of
property rights driven by the political strategy of the
emperor. Bruce, for example, noted that
all the land is the king’s; he gives it to whom
he pleases during pleasure, and resumes it
when it is his will. As soon as he dies the
whole land in the kingdom is at the disposal
of the Crown; and not only so, but, by death of
the present owner, his possessions however
long enjoyed, revert to the king, and do not
fall to the eldest son.
Álvares claimed there would be much more “fruit and
tillage if the great men did not ill-treat the people.”
Alameida’s account of how the society worked is very
consistent. He observed:
It is so usual for the emperor to exchange,
alter and take away the lands each man
holds every two or three years, sometimes
every year and even many times in the
course of a year, that it causes no surprise.
Often one man plows the soil, another sows it
and another reaps. Hence it arises that there
is no one who takes care of the land he
enjoys; there is not even anyone to plant a
tree because he knows that he who plants it
very rarely gathers the fruit. For the king,
however, it is useful that they should be so
dependent upon him.
These descriptions suggest major similarities between
the political and economic structures of Ethiopia and those
of European absolutism, though they also make it clear that
absolutism was more intense in Ethiopia, and economic
institutions even more extractive. Moreover, as we
emphasized in chapter 6, Ethiopia was not subject to the
same critical junctures that helped undermine the absolutist
regime in England. It was cut off from many of the
processes that shaped the modern world. Even if this had
not been the case, the intensity of its absolutism would
probably have led the absolutism to strengthen even more.
For example, as in Spain, international trade in Ethiopia,
including the lucrative slave trade, was controlled by the
monarch. Ethiopia was not completely isolated: Europeans
did search for Prester John, and it did have to fight wars
against surrounding Islamic polities. Nevertheless, the
historian Edward Gibbon noted with some accuracy that
“encompassed on all sides by the enemies of their religion,
the Aethiopians slept near a thousand years, forgetful of the
world by whom they were forgotten.”
As the European colonization of Africa began in the
nineteenth century, Ethiopia was an independent kingdom
under Ras (Duke) Kassa, who was crowned Emperor
Tewodros II in 1855. Tewodros embarked on a
modernization of the state, creating a more centralized
bureaucracy and judiciary, and a military capable of
controlling the country and possibly fighting the Europeans.
He placed military governors, responsible for collecting
taxes and remitting them to him, in charge of all the
provinces. His negotiations with European powers were
difficult, and in exasperation he imprisoned the English
consul. In 1868 the English sent an expeditionary force,
which sacked his capital. Tewodros committed suicide.
All the same, Tewodros’s reconstructed government did
manage to pull off one of the great anticolonial triumphs of
the nineteenth century, against the Italians. In 1889 the
throne went to Menelik II, who was immediately faced with
the interest of Italy in establishing a colony there. In 1885
the German chancellor Bismarck had convened a
conference in Berlin where the European powers hatched
the “Scramble for Africa”—that is, they decided how to
divide up Africa into different spheres of interest. At the
conference, Italy secured its rights to colonies in Eritrea,
along the coast of Ethiopia, and Somalia. Ethiopia, though
not represented at the conference, somehow managed to
survive intact. But the Italians still kept designs, and in 1896
they marched an army south from Eritrea. Menelik’s
response was similar to that of a European medieval king;
he formed an army by getting the nobility to call up their
armed men. This approach could not put an army in the
field for long, but it could put a huge one together for a short
time. This short time was just enough to defeat the Italians,
whose fifteen thousand men were overwhelmed by
Menelik’s one hundred thousand in the Battle of Adowa in
1896. It was the most serious military defeat a precolonial
African country was able to inflict on a European power,
and secured Ethiopia’s independence for another forty
years.
The last emperor of Ethiopia, Ras Tafari, was crowned
Haile Selassie in 1930. Haile Selassie ruled until he was
overthrown by a second Italian invasion, which began in
1935, but he returned from exile with the help of the English
in 1941. He then ruled until he was overthrown in a 1974
coup by the Derg, “the Committee,” a group of Marxist army
officers, who then proceeded to further impoverish and
ravage the country. The basic extractive economic
institutions of the absolutist Ethiopian empire, such as gult
(this page), and the feudalism created after the decline of
Aksum, lasted until they were abolished after the 1974
revolution.
Today Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the
world. The income of an average Ethiopian is about onefortieth that of an average citizen of England. Most people
live in rural areas and practice subsistence agriculture.
They lack clean water, electricity, and access to proper
schools or health care. Life expectancy is about fifty-five
years and only one-third of adults are literate. A
comparison between England and Ethiopia spans world
inequality. The reason Ethiopia is where it is today is that,
unlike in England, in Ethiopia absolutism persisted until the
recent past. With absolutism came extractive economic
institutions and poverty for the mass of Ethiopians, though
of course the emperors and nobility benefited hugely. But
the most enduring implication of the absolutism was that
Ethiopian society failed to take advantage of
industrialization opportunities during the nineteenth and
early twentieth centuries, underpinning the abject poverty of
its citizens today.
THE CHILDREN OF SAMAALE
Absolutist political institutions around the world impeded
industrialization either indirectly, in the way they organized
the economy, or directly, as we have seen in AustriaHungary and Russia. But absolutism was not the only
barrier to the emergence of inclusive economic institutions.
At the dawn of the nineteenth century, many parts of the
world, especially in Africa, lacked a state that could provide
even a minimal degree of law and order, which is a
prerequisite for having a modern economy. There was not
the equivalent of Peter the Great in Russia starting the
process of political centralization and then forging Russian
absolutism, let alone that of the Tudors in England
centralizing the state without fully destroying—or, more
appropriately, without fully being able to destroy—the
Parliament and other constraints on their power. Without
some degree of political centralization, even if the elites of
these African polities had wished to greet industrialization
with open arms, there wouldn’t have been much they could
have done.
Somalia, situated in the Horn of Africa, illustrates the
devastating effects of lack of political centralization.
Somalia has been dominated historically by people
organized into six clan families. The four largest of these,
the Dir, Darod, Isaq, and Hawiye, all trace their ancestry
back to a mythical ancestor, Samaale. These clan families
originated in the north of Somalia and gradually spread
south and east, and are even today primarily pastoral
people who migrate with their flocks of goats, sheep, and
camels. In the south, the Digil and the Rahanweyn,
sedentary agriculturalists, make up the last two of the clan
families. The territories of these clans are depicted on Map
12.
Somalis identify first with their clan family, but these are
very large and contain many subgroups. First among these
are clans that trace their descent back to one of the larger
clan families. More significant are the groupings within
clans called diya-paying groups, which consist of closely
related kinspeople who pay and collect diya, or “blood
wealth,” compensation against the murder of one of their
members. Somali clans and diya-paying groups were
historically locked in to almost continual conflict over the
scarce resources at their disposal, particularly water
sources and good grazing land for their animals. They also
constantly raided the herds of neighboring clans and
diya-paying groups. Though clans had leaders called
sultans, and also elders, these people had no real power.
Political power was very widely dispersed, with every
Somali adult man being able to have his say on decisions
that might affect the clan or group. This was achieved
through an informal council made up of all adult males.
There was no written law, no police, and no legal system to
speak of, except that Sharia law was used as a framework
within which informal laws were embedded. These informal
laws for a diya-paying group would be encoded in what
was called a heer, a body of explicitly formulated
obligations, rights, and duties the group demanded others
obey in their interactions with the group. With the advent of
colonial rule, these heers began to be written down. For
example, the Hassan Ugaas lineage formed a diya-paying
group of about fifteen hundred men and was a subclan of
the Dir clan family in British Somaliland. On March 8, 1950,
t h e i r heer was recorded by the British district
commissioner, the first three clauses of which read
1. When a man of the Hassan Ugaas is murdered by
an external group twenty camels of his blood wealth
(100) will be taken by his next of kin and the remaining
eighty camels shared amongst all the Hassan Ugaas.
2. If a man of the Hassan Ugaas is wounded by an
outsider and his injuries are valued at thirty-three-anda-third camels, ten camels must be given to him and
the remained to his jiffo-group (a sub-group of the diya
group).
3. Homicide amongst members of the Hassan Ugaas
is subject to compensation at the rate of thirty-threeand-a-third camels, payable only to the deceased’s
next of kin. If the culprit is unable to pay all or part, he
will be assisted by his lineage.
The heavy focus of the heer on killing and wounding
reflects the almost constant state of warfare between diyapaying groups and clans. Central to this was blood wealth
and blood feuding. A crime against a particular person was
a crime against the whole diya-paying group, and
necessitated collective compensation, blood wealth. If such
blood wealth was not paid, the diya-paying group of the
person who had committed the crime faced the collective
retribution of the victim. When modern transportation
reached Somalia, blood wealth was extended to people
who were killed or injured in motor accidents. The Hassan
Ugaas’s heer didn’t refer only to murder; clause 6 was “If
one man of the Hassan Ugaas insults another at a Hassan
Ugaas council he shall pay 150 shillings to the offended
party.”
In early 1955, the flocks of two clans, the Habar Tol Ja’lo
and the Habar Yuunis, were grazing close to each other in
the region of Domberelly. A man from the Yuunis was
wounded after a dispute with a member of the Tol Ja’lo
over camel herding. The Yuunis clan immediately retaliated,
attacking the Tol Ja’lo clan and killing a man. This death
led, following the code of blood wealth, to the Yuunis clan
offering compensation to the Tol Ja’lo clan, which was
accepted. The blood wealth was to be handed over in
person, as usual in the form of camels. At the handing-over
ceremony, one of the Tol Ja’lo killed a member of the
Yuunis, mistaking him for a member of the diya-paying
group of the murderer. This led to all-out warfare, and within
the next forty-eight hours thirteen Yuunis and twenty-six Tol
Ja’lo had been killed. Warfare continued for another year
before elders from both clans, brought together by the
English colonial administration, managed to broker a deal
(the exchange of blood wealth) that satisfied both sides and
was paid over the next three years.
The paying of blood wealth took place in the shadow of
the threat of force and feuding, and even when it was paid,
it did not necessarily stop conflict. Usually conflict died
down and then flared up again.
Political power was thus widely dispersed in Somali
society, almost pluralistically. But without the authority of a
centralized state to enforce order, let alone property rights,
this led not to inclusive institutions. Nobody respected the
authority of another, and nobody, including the British
colonial state when it eventually arrived, was able to
impose order. The lack of political centralization made it
impossible for Somalia to benefit from the Industrial
Revolution. In such a climate it would have been
unimaginable to invest in or adopt the new technologies
emanating from Britain, or indeed to create the types of
organizations necessary to do so.
The complex politics of Somalia had even more subtle
implications for economic progress. We mentioned earlier
some of the great technological puzzles of African history.
Prior to the expansion of colonial rule in the late nineteenth
century, African societies did not use wheeled
transportation or plow agriculture and few had writing.
Ethiopia did, as we have seen. The Somalis also had a
written script, but unlike the Ethiopians, they did not use it.
We have already seen instances of this in African history.
African societies may not have used wheels or plows, but
they certainly knew about them. In the case of the Kingdom
of Kongo, as we have seen, this was fundamentally due to
the fact that the economic institutions created no incentives
for people to adopt these technologies. Could the same
issues arise with the adoption of writing?
We can get some sense of this from the Kingdom of
Taqali, situated to the northwest of Somalia, in the Nuba
Hills of southern Sudan. The Kingdom of Taqali was formed
in the late eighteenth century by a band of warriors led by a
man called Isma’il, and it stayed independent until
amalgamated into the British Empire in 1884. The Taqali
kings and people had access to writing in Arabic, but it was
not used—except by the kings, for external communication
with other polities and diplomatic correspondence. At first
this situation seems very puzzling. The traditional account
of the origin of writing in Mesopotamia is that it was
developed by states in order to record information, control
people, and levy taxes. Wasn’t the Taqali state interested in
this?
These questions were investigated by the historian Janet
Ewald in the late 1970s as she tried to reconstruct the
history of the Taqali state. Part of the story is that the
citizens resisted the use of writing because they feared that
it would be used to control resources, such as valuable
land, by allowing the state to claim ownership. They also
feared that it would lead to more systematic taxation. The
dynasty that Isma’il started did not gel into a powerful state.
Even if it had wanted to, the state was not strong enough to
impose its will over the objections of the citizens. But there
were other, more subtle factors at work. Various elites also
opposed political centralization, for example, preferring oral
to written interaction with citizens, because this allowed
them maximum discretion. Written laws or orders could not
be taken back or denied and were harder to change; they
set benchmarks that governing elites might want to reverse.
So neither the ruled nor the rulers of Taqali saw the
introduction of writing to be to their advantage. The ruled
feared how the rulers would use it, and the rulers
themselves saw the absence of writing as aiding their quite
precarious grip on power. It was the politics of Taqali that
kept writing from being introduced. Though the Somalis
had even less of a well-defined elite compared with the
Taqali kingdom, it is quite plausible that the same forces
inhibited their use of writing and their adoption of other
basic technologies.
The Somali case shows the consequences of the lack of
political centralization for economic growth. The historical
literature does not record instances of attempts to create
such centralization in Somalia. However, it is clear why this
would have been very difficult. To politically centralize would
have meant that some clans would have been subject to the
control of others. But they rejected any such dominance,
and the surrender of their power that this would have
entailed; the balance of military power in the society would
also have made it difficult to create such centralized
institutions. In fact, it is likely that any group or clan
attempting to centralize power would not only have faced
stiff resistance but would have lost its existing power and
privileges. As a consequence of this lack of political
centralization and the implied absence of even the most
basic security of property rights, Somali society never
generated incentives to invest in productivity-enhancing
technologies. As the process of industrialization was under
way in other parts of the world in the nineteenth and early
twentieth centuries, Somalis were feuding and fending for
their lives, and their economic backwardness became
more ingrained.
ENDURING BACKWARDNESS
The Industrial Revolution created a transformative critical
juncture for the whole world during the nineteenth century
and beyond: those societies that allowed and incentivized
their citizens to invest in new technologies could grow
rapidly. But many around the world failed to do so—or
explicitly chose not to do so. Nations under the grip of
extractive political and economic institutions did not
generate such incentives. Spain and Ethiopia provide
examples where the absolutist control of political
institutions and the implied extractive economic institutions
choked economic incentives long before the dawn of the
nineteenth century. The outcome was similar in other
absolutist regimes—for example, in Austria-Hungary,
Russia, the Ottoman Empire, and China, though in these
cases the rulers, because of fear of creative destruction,
not only neglected to encourage economic progress but
also took explicit steps to block the spread of industry and
the introduction of new technologies that would bring
industrialization.
Absolutism is not the only form of extractive political
institutions and was not the only factor preventing
industrialization. Inclusive political and economic
institutions necessitate some degree of political
centralization so that the state can enforce law and order,
uphold property rights, and encourage economic activity
when necessary by investing in public services. Yet even
today, many nations, such as Afghanistan, Haiti, Nepal, and
Somalia, have states that are unable to maintain the most
rudimentary order, and economic incentives are all but
destroyed. The case of Somalia illustrates how the process
of industrialization also passed by such societies. Political
centralization is resisted for the same reason that absolutist
regimes resist change: the often well-placed fear that
change will reallocate political power from those that
dominate today to new individuals and groups. Thus, as
absolutism blocks moves toward pluralism and economic
change, so do the traditional elites and clans dominating
the scene in societies without state centralization. As a
consequence, societies that still lacked such centralization
in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were particularly
disadvantaged in the age of industry.
While the variety of extractive institutions ranging from
absolutism to states with little centralization failed to take
advantage of the spread of industry, the critical juncture of
the Industrial Revolution had very different effects in other
parts of the world. As we will see in chapter 10, societies
that had already taken steps toward inclusive political and
economic institutions, such as the United States and
Australia, and those where absolutism was more seriously
challenged, such as France and Japan, took advantage of
these new economic opportunities and started a process of
rapid economic growth. As such, the usual pattern of
interaction between a critical juncture and existing
institutional differences leading to further institutional and
economic divergence played out again in the nineteenth
century, and this time with an even bigger bang and more
fundamental effects on the prosperity and poverty of
nations.
North of the fence: Nogales, Arizona Jim
West/imagebroker.net/Photolibrary
South of the fence: Nogales, Sonora Jim West/age
fotostock/Photolibrary
Consequences of a level playing field: Thomas Edison’s
1880 patent for the lightbulb Records of the Patent and
Trademark Office; Record Group 241; National Archives
Economic losers from creative destruction: machinebreaking Luddites in early-nineteenth-century Britain Mary
Evans Picture Library/Tom Morgan
Consequences of a complete lack of political centralization
in Somalia REUTERS/Mohamed Guled/Landov
Successive beneficiaries of extractive institutions in Congo:
King of Kongo © CORBIS King Leopold II The Granger
Collection, NY
Joseph-Désiré Mobutu © Richard Melloul/Sygma/CORBIS
Laurent Kabila © Reuters/CORBIS
The Glorious Revolution: William III of Orange is read the
Bill of Rights before being offered the crown of England by
parliament After Edgar Melville Ward/The Bridgeman Art
Library/Getty Images
The bubonic plague of the fourteenth century creates a
critical juncture (The Triumph of Death painting of the Black
Death by Brueghel the Elder) The Granger Collection, NY
Beneficiary of institutional innovation: the King of Kuba Eliot
Elisofon/Time & Life Pictures/Getty
The emergence of hierarchy and inequality before farming:
the grave goods of the Natufian elite
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Natufian-Burial-ElWad.jpg
Extractive growth: Soviet Gulag labor builds the White Sea
canal SOVFOTO
Britain falls far behind: the ruins of the Roman empire at
Vindolanda Courtesy of the Vindolanda Trust and Adam
Stanford
Innovation, essence of inclusive economic growth: James
Watt’s steam engine The Granger Collection, NY
Organizational change, a consequence of inclusive
institutions: the factory of Richard Arkwright at Cromford
The Granger Collection, NY
Fruits of unsustainable extractive growth: Zheng He’s ship
alongside Columbus’s Santa Maria Gregory A.
Harlin/National Geographic Stock
Bird’s-eye view of the dual economy in South Africa:
poverty in Transkei, prosperity in Natal Roger de la
Harpe/Africa Imagery
Consequences of the Industrial Revolution: the storming of
the Bastille Bridgeman-Giraudon/Art Resource, NY
Challenges to inclusive institutions: the Standard Oil
Company Library of Congress Prints and Photographs
Division Washington, D.C.
Noncreative destruction: abandoned Hasting railway station
on the way to Bo in Sierra Leone © Matt Stephenson:
www.itsayshere.org
Extractive institutions today: children working in an Uzbek
cotton field Environmental Justice Foundation,
cotton field Environmental Justice Foundation,
www.ejfoundation.org
Breaking a mold: three Tswana chiefs on their way to
London Photograph by Willoughby, courtesy of Botswana
National Archives & Records Services
Breaking another mold: Rosa Parks challenges extractive
institutions in the U.S. south The Granger Collection, NY
Extractive institutions devour their children: the Chinese
Cultural Revolution vs. “degenerate intellectuals” Weng
Rulan, 1967, IISH Collection, International Institute of Social
History (Amsterdam)
9.
REVERSING DEVELOPMENT
SPICE AND GENOCIDE
THE MOLUCCAN A RCHIPELAGO in modern Indonesia
is
made up of three groups of islands. In the early seventeenth
century, the northern Moluccas housed the independent
kingdoms of Tidore, Ternate, and Bacan. The middle
Moluccas were home to the island kingdom of Ambon. In
the south were the Banda Islands, a small archipelago that
was not yet politically unified. Though they seem remote to
us today, the Moluccas were then central to world trade as
the only producers of the valuable spices cloves, mace, and
nutmeg. Of these, nutmeg and mace grew only in the
Banda Islands. Inhabitants of these islands produced and
exported these rare spices in exchange for food and
manufactured goods coming from the island of Java, from
the entrepôt of Melaka on the Malaysian Peninsula, and
from India, China, and Arabia.
The first contact the inhabitants had with Europeans was
in the sixteenth century, with Portuguese mariners who
came to buy spices. Before then spices had to be shipped
through the Middle East, via trade routes controlled by the
Ottoman Empire. Europeans searched for a passage
around Africa or across the Atlantic to gain direct access to
the Spice Islands and the spice trade. The Cape of Good
Hope was rounded by the Portuguese mariner Bartolomeu
Dias in 1488, and India was reached via the same route by
Vasco da Gama in 1498. For the first time the Europeans
now had their own independent route to the Spice Islands.
The Portuguese immediately set about the task of trying
to control the trade in spices. They captured Melaka in
1511. Strategically situated on the western side of the
Malaysian Peninsula, merchants from all over Southeast
Asia came there to sell their spices to other merchants,
Indian, Chinese, and Arabs, who then shipped them to the
West. As the Portuguese traveler Tomé Pires put it in
1515: “The trade and commerce between the different
nations for a thousand leagues on every hand must come to
Melaka … Whoever is lord of Melaka has his hands at the
throat of Venice.”
With Melaka in their hands, the Portuguese
systematically tried to gain a monopoly of the valuable
spice trade. They failed.
The opponents they faced were not negligible. Between
the fourteenth and sixteenth centuries, there was a great
deal of economic development in Southeast Asia based on
trade in spices. City-states such as Aceh, Banten, Melaka,
Makassar, Pegu, and Brunei expanded rapidly, producing
and exporting spices along with other products such as
hardwoods.
These states had absolutist forms of government similar
to those in Europe in the same period. The development of
political institutions was spurred by similar processes,
including technological change in methods of warfare and
international trade. State institutions became more
centralized, with a king at the center claiming absolute
power. Like absolutist rulers in Europe, Southeast Asian
kings relied heavily on revenues from trade, both engaging
in it themselves and granting monopolies to local and
foreign elites. As in absolutist Europe, this generated some
economic growth but was a far-from-ideal set of economic
institutions for economic prosperity, with significant entry
barriers and insecure property rights for most. But the
process of commercialization was under way even as the
Portuguese were trying to establish their dominance in the
Indian Ocean.
The presence of Europeans swelled and had a much
greater impact with the arrival of the Dutch. The Dutch
quickly realized that monopolizing the supply of the valuable
spices of the Moluccas would be much more profitable than
competing against local or other European traders. In 1600
they persuaded the ruler of Ambon to sign an exclusive
agreement that gave them the monopoly on the clove trade
in Ambon. With the founding of the Dutch East India
Company in 1602, the Dutch attempts to capture the entire
spice trade and eliminate their competitors, by hook or by
crook, took a turn for the better for the Dutch and for the
worse for Southeast Asia. The Dutch East India Company
was the second European joint stock company, following
the English East India Company, major landmarks in the
development of the modern corporation, which would
subsequently play a major role in European industrial
growth. It was also the second company that had its own
army and the power to wage war and colonize foreign
lands. With the military power of the company now brought
to bear, the Dutch proceeded to eliminate all potential
interlopers to enforce their treaty with the ruler of Ambon.
They captured a key fort held by the Portuguese in 1605
and forcibly removed all other traders. They then expanded
to the northern Moluccas, forcing the rulers of Tidore,
Ternate, and Bacan to agree that no cloves could be grown
or traded in their territories. The treaty they imposed on
Ternate even allowed the Dutch to come and destroy any
clove trees they found there.
Ambon was ruled in a manner similar to much of Europe
and the Americas during that time. The citizens of Ambon
owed tribute to the ruler and were subject to forced labor.
The Dutch took over and intensified these systems to
extract more labor and more cloves from the island. Prior to
the arrival of the Dutch, extended families paid tribute in
cloves to the Ambonese elite. The Dutch now stipulated
that each household was tied to the soil and should
cultivate a certain number of clove trees. Households were
also obligated to deliver forced labor to the Dutch.
The Dutch also took control of the Banda Islands,
intending this time to monopolize mace and nutmeg. But
the Banda Islands were organized very differently from
Ambon. They were made up of many small autonomous
city-states, and there was no hierarchical social or political
structure. These small states, in reality no more than small
towns, were run by village meetings of citizens. There was
no central authority whom the Dutch could coerce into
signing a monopoly treaty and no system of tribute that they
could take over to capture the entire supply of nutmeg and
mace. At first this meant that the Dutch had to compete with
English, Portuguese, Indian, and Chinese merchants,
losing the spices to their competitors when they did not pay
high prices. Their initial plans of setting up a monopoly of
mace and nutmeg dashed, the Dutch governor of Batavia,
Jan Pieterszoon Coen, came up with an alternative plan.
Coen founded Batavia, on the island of Java, as the Dutch
East India Company’s new capital in 1618. In 1621 he
sailed to Banda with a fleet and proceeded to massacre
almost the entire population of the islands, probably about
fifteen thousand people. All their leaders were executed
along with the rest, and only a few were left alive, enough to
preserve the know-how necessary for mace and nutmeg
production. After this genocide was complete, Coen then
proceeded to create the political and economic structure
necessary for his plan: a plantation society. The islands
were divided into sixty-eight parcels, which were given to
sixty-eight Dutchmen, mostly former and current employees
of the Dutch East India Company. These new plantation
owners were taught how to produce the spices by the few
surviving Bandanese and could buy slaves from the East
India Company to populate the now-empty islands and to
produce spices, which would have to be sold at fixed prices
back to the company.
The extractive institutions created by the Dutch in the
Spice Islands had the desired effects, though, in Banda this
was at the cost of fifteen thousand innocent lives and the
establishment of a set of economic and political institutions
that would condemn the islands to underdevelopment. By
the end of the seventeenth century, the Dutch had reduced
the world supply of these spices by about 60 percent and
the price of nutmeg had doubled.
The Dutch spread the strategy they perfected in the
Moluccas to the entire region, with profound implications for
the economic and political institutions of the rest of
Southeast Asia. The long commercial expansion of several
states in the area that had started in the fourteenth century
went into reverse. Even the polities which were not directly
colonized and crushed by the Dutch East India Company
turned inward and abandoned trade. The nascent
economic and political change in Southeast Asia was
halted in its tracks.
To avoid the threat of the Dutch East India Company,
several states abandoned producing crops for export and
ceased commercial activity. Autarky was safer than facing
the Dutch. In 1620 the state of Banten, on the island of
Java, cut down its pepper trees in the hope that this would
induce the Dutch to leave it in peace. When a Dutch
merchant visited Maguindanao, in the southern Philippines,
in 1686, he was told, “Nutmeg and cloves can be grown
here, just as in Malaku. They are not there now because the
old Raja had all of them ruined before his death. He was
afraid the Dutch Company would come to fight with them
about it.” What a trader heard about the ruler of
Maguindanao in 1699 was similar: “He had forbidden the
continued planting of pepper so that he could not thereby
get involved in war whether with the [Dutch] company or
with other potentates.” There was de-urbanization and even
population decline. In 1635 the Burmese moved their
capital from Pegu, on the coast, to Ava, far inland up the
Irrawaddy River.
We do not know what the path of economic and political
development of Southeast Asian states would have been
without Dutch aggression. They may have developed their
own brand of absolutism, they may have remained in the
same state they were in at the end of the sixteenth century,
or they may have continued their commercialization by
gradually adopting more and more inclusive institutions. But
as in the Moluccas, Dutch colonialism fundamentally
changed their economic and political development. The
people in Southeast Asia stopped trading, turned inward,
and became more absolutist. In the next two centuries, they
would be in no position to take advantage of the
innovations that would spring up in the Industrial Revolution.
And ultimately their retreat from trade would not save them
from Europeans; by the end of the eighteenth century,
nearly all were part of European colonial empires.
WE SAW IN CHAPTER 7 how European expansion into the
Atlantic fueled the rise of inclusive institutions in Britain. But
as illustrated by the experience of the Moluccas under the
Dutch, this expansion sowed the seeds of
underdevelopment in many diverse corners of the world by
imposing, or further strengthening existing, extractive
institutions. These either directly or indirectly destroyed
nascent commercial and industrial activity throughout the
globe or they perpetuated institutions that stopped
industrialization. As a result, as industrialization was
spreading in some parts of the world, places that were part
of European colonial empires stood no chance of
benefiting from these new technologies.
THE ALL-TOO-USUAL INSTITUTION
In Southeast Asia the spread of European naval and
commercial power in the early modern period curtailed a
promising period of economic expansion and institutional
change. In the same period as the Dutch East India
Company was expanding, a very different sort of trade was
intensifying in Africa: the slave trade.
In the United States, southern slavery was often referred
to as the “peculiar institution.” But historically, as the great
classical scholar Moses Finlay pointed out, slavery was
anything but peculiar, it was present in almost every
society. It was, as we saw earlier, endemic in Ancient
Rome and in Africa, long a source of slaves for Europe,
though not the only one.
In the Roman period slaves came from Slavic peoples
around the Black Sea, from the Middle East, and also from
Northern Europe. But by 1400, Europeans had stopped
enslaving each other. Africa, however, as we saw in
chapter 6, did not undergo the transition from slavery to
serfdom as did medieval Europe. Before the early modern
period, there was a vibrant slave trade in East Africa, and
large numbers of slaves were transported across the
Sahara to the Arabian Peninsula. Moreover, the large
medieval West African states of Mali, Ghana, and Songhai
made heavy use of slaves in the government, the army, and
agriculture, adopting organizational models from the
Muslim North African states with whom they traded.
It was the development of the sugar plantation colonies of
the Caribbean beginning in the early seventeenth century
that led to a dramatic escalation of the international slave
trade and to an unprecedented increase in the importance
of slavery within Africa itself. In the sixteenth century,
probably about 300,000 slaves were traded in the Atlantic.
They came mostly from Central Africa, with heavy
involvement of Kongo and the Portuguese based farther
south in Luanda, now the capital of Angola. During this
time, the trans-Saharan slave trade was still larger, with
probably about 550,000 Africans moving north as slaves. In
the seventeenth century, the situation reversed. About
1,350,000 Africans were sold as slaves in the Atlantic
trade, the majority now being shipped to the Americas. The
numbers involved in the Saharan trade were relatively
unchanged. The eighteenth century saw another dramatic
increase, with about 6,000,000 slaves being shipped
across the Atlantic and maybe 700,000 across the Sahara.
Adding the figures up over periods and parts of Africa, well
over 10,000,000 Africans were shipped out of the continent
as slaves.
Map 15 (this page) gives some sense of the scale of the
slave trade. Using modern country boundaries, it depicts
estimates of the cumulative extent of slavery between 1400
and 1900 as a percent of population in 1400. Darker colors
show more intense slavery. For example, in Angola, Benin,
Ghana, and Togo, total cumulative slave exports amounted
to more than the entire population of the country in 1400.
The sudden appearance of Europeans all around the
coast of Western and Central Africa eager to buy slaves
could not but have a transformative impact on African
societies. Most slaves who were shipped to the Americas
were war captives subsequently transported to the coast.
The increase in warfare was fueled by huge imports of guns
and ammunition, which the Europeans exchanged for
slaves. By 1730 about 180,000 guns were being imported
every year just along the West African coast, and between
1750 and the early nineteenth century, the British alone sold
between 283,000 and 394,000 guns a year. Between 1750
and 1807, the British sold an extraordinary 22,000 tons of
gunpowder, making an average of about 384,000
kilograms annually, along with 91,000 kilograms of lead per
year. Farther to the south, the trade was just as vigorous.
On the Loango coast, north of the Kingdom of Kongo,
Europeans sold about 50,000 guns a year.
All this warfare and conflict not only caused major loss of
life and human suffering but also put in motion a particular
path of institutional development in Africa. Before the early
modern era, African societies were less centralized
politically than those of Eurasia. Most polities were small
scale, with tribal chiefs and perhaps kings controlling land
and resources. Many, as we showed with Somalia, had no
structure of hierarchical political authority at all. The slave
trade initiated two adverse political processes. First, many
polities initially became more absolutist, organized around
a single objective: to enslave and sell others to European
slavers. Second, as a consequence but, paradoxically, in
opposition to the first process, warring and slaving
ultimately destroyed whatever order and legitimate state
authority existed in sub-Saharan Africa. Apart from warfare,
slaves were also kidnapped and captured by small-scale
raiding. The law also became a tool of enslavement. No
matter what crime you committed, the penalty was slavery.
The English merchant Francis Moore observed the
consequences of this along the Senegambia coast of West
Africa in the 1730s:
Since this slave trade has been us’d, all
punishments are changed into slavery; there
being an advantage on such condemnations,
they strain for crimes very hard, in order to
get the benefit of selling the criminal. Not only
murder, theft and adultery, are punished by
selling the criminal for slave, but every trifling
case is punished in the same manner.
Institutions, even religious ones, became perverted by
the desire to capture and sell slaves. One example is the
famous oracle at Arochukwa, in eastern Nigeria. The oracle
was widely believed to speak for a prominent deity in the
region respected by the major local ethnic groups, the Ijaw,
the Ibibio, and the Igbo. The oracle was approached to
settle disputes and adjudicate on disagreements. Plaintiffs
who traveled to Arochukwa to face the oracle had to
descend from the town into a gorge of the Cross River,
where the oracle was housed in a tall cave, the front of
which was lined with human skulls. The priests of the
oracle, in league with the Aro slavers and merchants, would
dispense the decision of the oracle. Often this involved
people being “swallowed” by the oracle, which actually
meant that once they had passed through the cave, they
were led away down the Cross River and to the waiting
ships of the Europeans. This process in which all laws and
customs were distorted and broken to capture slaves and
more slaves had devastating effects on political
centralization, though in some places it did lead to the rise
of powerful states whose main raison d’être was raiding
and slaving. The Kingdom of Kongo itself was probably the
first African state to experience a metamorphosis into a
slaving state, until it was destroyed by civil war. Other
slaving states arose most prominently in West Africa and
included Oyo in Nigeria, Dahomey in Benin, and
subsequently Asante in Ghana.
The expansion of the state of Oyo in the middle of the
seventeenth century, for example, is directly related to the
increase of slave exports on the coast. The state’s power
was the result of a military revolution that involved the
import of horses from the north and the formation of a
powerful cavalry that could decimate opposing armies. As
Oyo expanded south toward the coast, it crushed the
intervening polities and sold many of their inhabitants for
slaves. In the period between 1690 and 1740, Oyo
established its monopoly in the interior of what came to be
known as the Slave Coast. It is estimated that 80 to 90
percent of the slaves sold on the coast were the result of
these conquests. A similar dramatic connection between
warfare and slave supply came farther west in the
eighteenth century, on the Gold Coast, the area that is now
Ghana. After 1700 the state of Asante expanded from the
interior, in much the same way as Oyo had previously.
During the first half of the eighteenth century, this expansion
triggered the so-called Akan Wars, as Asante defeated
one independent state after another. The last, Gyaman,
was conquered in 1747. The preponderance of the
375,000 slaves exported from the Gold Coast between
1700 and 1750 were captives taken in these wars.
Probably the most obvious impact of this massive
extraction of human beings was demographic. It is difficult
to know with any certitude what the population of Africa was
before the modern period, but scholars have made various
plausible estimates of the impact of the slave trade on the
population. The historian Patrick Manning estimates that
the population of those areas of West and West-Central
Africa that provided slaves for export was around twentytwo to twenty-five million in the early eighteenth century. On
the conservative assumption that during the eighteenth and
early nineteenth centuries these areas would have
experienced a rate of population growth of about half a
percent a year without the slave trade, Manning estimated
that the population of this region in 1850 ought to have
been at least forty-six to fifty-three million. In fact, it was
about one-half of this.
This massive difference was not only due to about eight
million people being exported as slaves from this region
between 1700 and 1850, but the millions likely killed by
continual internal warfare aimed at capturing slaves.
Slavery and the slave trade in Africa further disrupted family
and marriage structures and may also have reduced
fertility.
Beginning in the late eighteenth century, a strong
movement to abolish the slave trade began to gain
momentum in Britain, led by the charismatic figure of
William Wilberforce. After repeated failures, in 1807 the
abolitionists persuaded the British Parliament to pass a bill
making the slave trade illegal. The United States followed
with a similar measure the next year. The British
government went further, though: it actively sought to
implement this measure by stationing naval squadrons in
the Atlantic to try to stamp out the slave trade. Though it
took some time for these measures to be truly effective,
and it was not until 1834 that slavery itself was abolished in
the British Empire, the days of the Atlantic slave trade, by
far the largest part of the trade, were numbered.
Though the end of the slave trade after 1807 did reduce
the external demand for slaves from Africa, this did not
mean that slavery’s impact on African societies and
institutions would magically melt away. Many African states
had become organized around slaving, and the British
putting an end to the trade did not change this reality.
Moreover, slavery had become much more prevalent within
Africa itself. These factors would ultimately shape the path
of development in Africa not only before but also after
1807.
In the place of slavery came “legitimate commerce,” a
phrase coined for the export from Africa of new
commodities not tied to the slave trade. These goods
included palm oil and kernels, peanuts, ivory, rubber, and
gum arabic. As European and North American incomes
expanded with the spread of the Industrial Revolution,
demand for many of these tropical products rose sharply.
Just as African societies took aggressive advantage of the
economic opportunities presented by the slave trade, they
did the same with legitimate commerce. But they did so in
a peculiar context, one in which slavery was a way of life but
the external demand for slaves had suddenly dried up.
What were all these slaves to do now that they could not be
sold to Europeans? The answer was simple: they could be
profitably put to work, under coercion, in Africa, producing
the new items of legitimate commerce.
One of the best documented examples was in Asante, in
modern Ghana. Prior to 1807, the Asante Empire had been
heavily involved in the capturing and export of slaves,
bringing them down to the coast to be sold at the great
slaving castles of Cape Coast and Elmina. After 1807, with
this option closed off, the Asante political elite reorganized
their economy. However, slaving and slavery did not end.
Rather, slaves were settled on large plantations, initially
around the capital city of Kumase, but later spread
throughout the empire (corresponding to most of the interior
of Ghana). They were employed in the production of gold
and kola nuts for export, but also grew large quantities of
food and were intensively used as porters, since Asante
did not use wheeled transportation. Farther east, similar
adaptations took place. In Dahomey, for example, the king
had large palm oil plantations near the coastal ports of
Whydah and Porto Novo, all based on slave labor.
So the abolition of the slave trade, rather than making
slavery in Africa wither away, simply led to a redeployment
of the slaves, who were now used within Africa rather than
in the Americas. Moreover, many of the political institutions
the slave trade had wrought in the previous two centuries
were unaltered and patterns of behavior persisted. For
example, in Nigeria in the 1820s and ’30s the once-great
Oyo Kingdom collapsed. It was undermined by civil wars
and the rise of the Yoruba city-states, such as Illorin and
Ibadan, that were directly involved in the slave trade, to its
south. In the 1830s, the capital of Oyo was sacked, and
after that the Yoruba cities contested power with Dahomey
for regional dominance. They fought an almost continuous
series of wars in the first half of the century, which
generated a massive supply of slaves. Along with this went
the normal rounds of kidnapping and condemnation by
oracles and smaller-scale raiding. Kidnapping was such a
problem in some parts of Nigeria that parents would not let
their children play outside for fear they would be taken and
sold into slavery.
As a result slavery, rather than contracting, appears to
have expanded in Africa throughout the nineteenth century.
Though accurate figures are hard to come by, a number of
existing accounts written by travelers and merchants during
this time suggest that in the West African kingdoms of
Asante and Dahomey and in the Yoruba city-states well
over half of the population were slaves. More accurate data
exist from early French colonial records for the western
Sudan, a large swath of western Africa, stretching from
Senegal, via Mali and Burkina Faso, to Niger and Chad. In
this region 30 percent of the population was enslaved in
1900.
Just as with the emergence of legitimate commerce, the
advent of formal colonization after the Scramble for Africa
failed to destroy slavery in Africa. Though much of
European penetration into Africa was justified on the
grounds that slavery had to be combated and abolished,
the reality was different. In most parts of colonial Africa,
slavery continued well into the twentieth century. In Sierra
Leone, for example, it was only in 1928 that slavery was
finally abolished, even though the capital city of Freetown
was originally established in the late eighteenth century as
a haven for slaves repatriated from the Americas. It then
became an important base for the British antislavery
squadron and a new home for freed slaves rescued from
slave ships captured by the British navy. Even with this
symbolism slavery lingered in Sierra Leone for 130 years.
Liberia, just south of Sierra Leone, was likewise founded
for freed American slaves in the 1840s. Yet there, too,
slavery lingered into the twentieth century; as late as the
1960s, it was estimated that one-quarter of the labor force
were coerced, living and working in conditions close to
slavery. Given the extractive economic and political
institutions based on the slave trade, industrialization did
not spread to sub-Saharan Africa, which stagnated or even
experienced economic retardation as other parts of the
world were transforming their economies.
MAKING A DUAL ECONOMY
The “dual economy” paradigm, originally proposed in 1955
by Sir Arthur Lewis, still shapes the way that most social
scientists think about the economic problems of lessdeveloped countries. According to Lewis, many lessdeveloped or underdeveloped economies have a dual
structure and are divided into a modern sector and a
traditional sector. The modern sector, which corresponds to
the more developed part of the economy, is associated
with urban life, modern industry, and the use of advanced
technologies. The traditional sector is associated with rural
life, agriculture, and “backward” institutions and
technologies. Backward agricultural institutions include the
communal ownership of land, which implies the absence of
private property rights on land. Labor was used so
inefficiently in the traditional sector, according to Lewis, that
it could be reallocated to the modern sector without
reducing the amount the rural sector could produce. For
generations of development economists building on
Lewis’s insights, the “problem of development” has come
to mean moving people and resources out of the traditional
sector, agriculture and the countryside, and into the modern
sector, industry and cities. In 1979 Lewis received the
Nobel Prize for his work on economic development.
Lewis and development economists building on his work
were certainly right in identifying dual economies. South
Africa was one of the clearest examples, split into a
traditional sector that was backward and poor and a
modern one that was vibrant and prosperous. Even today
the dual economy Lewis identified is everywhere in South
Africa. One of the most dramatic ways to see this is by
driving across the border between the state of KwaZuluNatal, formerly Natal, and the state of the Transkei. The
border follows the Great Kei River. To the east of the river
in Natal, along the coast, are wealthy beachfront properties
on wide expanses of glorious sandy beaches. The interior
is covered with lush green sugarcane plantations. The
roads are beautiful; the whole area reeks of prosperity.
Across the river, it is as if it were a different time and a
different country. The area is largely devastated. The land is
not green, but brown and heavily deforested. Instead of
affluent modern houses with running water, toilets, and all
the modern conveniences, people live in makeshift huts
and cook on open fires. Life is certainly traditional, far from
the modern existence to the east of the river. By now you
will not be surprised that these differences are linked with
major differences in economic institutions between the two
sides of the river.
To the east, in Natal, we have private property rights,
functioning legal systems, markets, commercial agriculture,
and industry. To the west, the Transkei had communal
property in land and all-powerful traditional chiefs until
recently. Looked at through the lens of Lewis’s theory of
dual economy, the contrast between the Transkei and Natal
illustrates the problems of African development. In fact, we
can go further, and note that, historically, all of Africa was
like the Transkei, poor with premodern economic
institutions, backward technology, and rule by chiefs.
According to this perspective, then, economic development
should simply be about ensuring that the Transkei
eventually turns into Natal.
This perspective has much truth to it but misses the
entire logic of how the dual economy came into existence
and its relationship to the modern economy. The
backwardness of the Transkei is not just a historic remnant
of the natural backwardness of Africa. The dual economy
between the Transkei and Natal is in fact quite recent, and
is anything but natural. It was created by the South African
white elites in order to produce a reservoir of cheap labor
for their businesses and reduce competition from black
Africans. The dual economy is another example of
underdevelopment created, not of underdevelopment as it
naturally emerged and persisted over centuries.
South Africa and Botswana, as we will see later, did
avoid most of the adverse effects of the slave trade and the
wars it wrought. South Africans’ first major interaction with
Europeans came when the Dutch East India Company
founded a base in Table Bay, now the harbor of Cape
Town, in 1652. At this time the western part of South Africa
was sparsely settled, mostly by hunter-gatherers called the
Khoikhoi people. Farther east, in what is now the Ciskei
and Transkei, there were densely populated African
societies specializing in agriculture. They did not initially
interact heavily with the new colony of the Dutch, nor did
they become involved in slaving. The South African coast
was far removed from slave markets, and the inhabitants of
the Ciskei and Transkei, known as the Xhosa, were just far
enough inland not to attract anyone’s attention. As a
consequence, these societies did not feel the brunt of many
of the adverse currents that hit West and Central Africa.
The isolation of these places changed in the nineteenth
century. For the Europeans there was something very
attractive about the climate and the disease environment of
South Africa. Unlike West Africa, for example, South Africa
had a temperate climate that was free of the tropical
diseases such as malaria and yellow fever that had turned
much of Africa into the “white man’s graveyard” and
prevented Europeans from settling or even setting up
permanent outposts. South Africa was a much better
prospect for European settlement. European expansion
into the interior began soon after the British took over Cape
Town from the Dutch during the Napoleonic Wars. This
precipitated a long series of Xhosa wars as the settlement
frontier expanded further inland. The penetration into the
South African interior was intensified in 1835, when the
remaining Europeans of Dutch descent, who would
become known as Afrikaners or Boers, started their
famous mass migration known as the Great Trek away
from the British control of the coast and the Cape Town
area. The Afrikaners subsequently founded two
independent states in the interior of Africa, the Orange
Free State and the Transvaal.
The next stage in the development of South Africa came
with the discovery of vast diamond reserves in Kimberly in
1867 and of rich gold mines in Johannesburg in 1886. This
huge mineral wealth in the interior immediately convinced
the British to extend their control over all of South Africa.
The resistance of the Orange Free State and the Transvaal
led to the famous Boer Wars in 1880–1881 and 1899–
1902. After initial unexpected defeat, the British managed
to merge the Afrikaner states with the Cape Province and
Natal, to found the Union of South Africa in 1910. Beyond
the fighting between Afrikaners and the British, the
development of the mining economy and the expansion of
European settlement had other implications for the
development of the area. Most notably, they generated
demand for food and other agricultural products and
created new economic opportunities for native Africans
both in agriculture and trade.
The Xhosa, in the Ciskei and Transkei, reacted quickly to
these economic opportunities, as the historian Colin Bundy
documented. As early as 1832, even before the mining
boom, a Moravian missionary in the Transkei observed the
new economic dynamism in these areas and noted the
demand from the Africans for the new consumer goods that
the spread of Europeans had begun to reveal to them. He
wrote, “To obtain these objects, they look … to get money
by the labour of their hands, and purchase clothes, spades,
ploughs, wagons and other useful articles.”
The civil commissioner John Hemming’s description of
his visit to Fingoland in the Ciskei in 1876 is equally
revealing. He wrote that he was
struck with the very great advancement made
by the Fingoes in a few years … Wherever I
went I found substantial huts and brick or
stone tenements. In many cases, substantial
brick houses had been erected … and fruit
trees had been planted; wherever a stream of
water could be made available it had been
led out and the soil cultivated as far as it
could be irrigated; the slopes of the hills and
even the summits of the mountains were
cultivated wherever a plough could be
introduced. The extent of the land turned over
surprised me; I have not seen such a large
area of cultivated land for years.
As in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the use of the
plow was new in agriculture, but when given the opportunity,
African farmers seemed to have been quite ready to adopt
the technology. They were also prepared to invest in
wagons and irrigation works.
As the agricultural economy developed, the rigid tribal
institutions started to give way. There is a great deal of
evidence that changes in property rights to land took place.
In 1879 the magistrate in Umzimkulu of Griqualand East, in
the Transkei, noted “the growing desire of the part of
natives to become proprietors of land—they have
purchased 38,000 acres.” Three years later he recorded
that around eight thousand African farmers in the district
had bought and started to work on ninety thousand acres of
land.
Africa was certainly not on the verge of an Industrial
Revolution, but real change was under way. Private
property in land had weakened the chiefs and enabled new
men to buy land and make their wealth, something that was
unthinkable just decades earlier. This also illustrates how
quickly the weakening of extractive institutions and
absolutist control systems can lead to newfound economic
dynamism. One of the success stories was Stephen
Sonjica in the Ciskei, a self-made farmer from a poor
background. In an address in 1911, Sonjica noted how
when he first expressed to his father his desire to buy land,
his father had responded: “Buy land? How can you want to
buy land? Don’t you know that all land is God’s, and he
gave it to the chiefs only?” Sonjica’s father’s reaction was
understandable. But Sonjica was not deterred. He got a job
in King William’s Town and noted:
I cunningly opened a private bank account
into which I diverted a portion of my
savings … This went only until I had saved
eighty pounds … [I bought] a span of oxen
with yokes, gear, plough and the rest of
agricultural paraphernalia … I now purchased
a small farm … I cannot too strongly
recommend [farming] as a profession to my
fellow man … They should however adopt
modern methods of profit making.
An extraordinary piece of evidence supporting the
economic dynamism and prosperity of African farmers in
this period is revealed in a letter sent in 1869 by a
Methodist missionary, W. J. Davis. Writing to England, he
recorded with pleasure that he had collected forty-six
pounds in cash “for the Lancashire Cotton Relief Fund.” In
this period the prosperous African farmers were donating
money for relief of the poor English textile workers!
This new economic dynamism, not surprisingly, did not
please the traditional chiefs, who, in a pattern that is by now
familiar to us, saw this as eroding their wealth and power. In
1879 Matthew Blyth, the chief magistrate of the Transkei,
observed that there was opposition to surveying the land so
that it could be divided into private property. He recorded
that “some of the chiefs … objected, but most of the people
were pleased … the chiefs see that the granting of
individual titles will destroy their influence among the
headmen.”
Chiefs also resisted improvements made on the lands,
such as the digging of irrigation ditches or the building of
fences. They recognized that these improvements were just
a prelude to individual property rights to the land, the
beginning of the end for them. European observers even
noted that chiefs and other traditional authorities, such as
witch doctors, attempted to prohibit all “European ways,”
which included new crops, tools such as plows, and items
of trade. But the integration of the Ciskei and the Transkei
into the British colonial state weakened the power of the
traditional chiefs and authorities, and their resistance would
not be enough to stop the new economic dynamism in
South Africa. In Fingoland in 1884, a European observer
noted that the people had
transferred their allegiance to us. Their chiefs
have been changed to a sort of titled
landowner … without political power. No
longer afraid of the jealousy of the chief or of
the deadly weapon … the witchdoctor, which
strikes down the wealthy cattle owner, the
able counsellor, the introduction of novel
customs, the skilful agriculturalist, reducing
them all to the uniform level of mediocrity—no
longer apprehensive of this, the Fingo
clansman … is a progressive man. Still
remaining a peasant farmer … he owns
wagons and ploughs; he opens water
furroughs for irrigation; he is the owner of a
flock of sheep.
Even a modicum of inclusive institutions and the erosion
of the powers of the chiefs and their restrictions were
sufficient to start a vigorous African economic boom. Alas,
it would be short lived. Between 1890 and 1913 it would
come to an abrupt end and go into reverse. During this
period two forces worked to destroy the rural prosperity
and dynamism that Africans had created in the previous
fifty years. The first was antagonism by European farmers
who were competing with Africans. Successful African
farmers drove down the price of crops that Europeans also
produced. The response of Europeans was to drive the
Africans out of business. The second force was even more
sinister. The Europeans wanted a cheap labor force to
employ in the burgeoning mining economy, and they could
ensure this cheap supply only by impoverishing the
Africans. This they went about methodically over the next
several decades.
The 1897 testimony of George Albu, the chairman of the
Association of Mines, given to a Commission of Inquiry
pithily describes the logic of impoverishing Africans so as
to obtain cheap labor. He explained how he proposed to
cheapen labor by “simply telling the boys that their wages
are reduced.” His testimony goes as follows:
Commission: Suppose the kaffirs [black
Africans] retire back to their kraal [cattle
pen]? Would you be in favor of asking the
Government to enforce labour?
Albu: Certainly … I would make it
compulsory … Why should a nigger be
allowed to do nothing? I think a kaffir should
be compelled to work in order to earn his
living.
Commission: If a man can live without work,
how can you force him to work?
Albu: Tax him, then …
Commission: Then you would not allow the
kaffir to hold land in the country, but he must
work for the white man to enrich him?
Albu: He must do his part of the work of
helping his neighbours.
Both of the goals of removing competition with white
farmers and developing a large low-wage labor force were
simultaneously accomplished by the Natives Land Act of
1913. The act, anticipating Lewis’s notion of dual economy,
divided South Africa into two parts, a modern prosperous
part and a traditional poor part. Except that the prosperity
and poverty were actually being created by the act itself. It
stated that 87 percent of the land was to be given to the
Europeans, who represented about 20 percent of the
population. The remaining 13 percent was to go to the
Africans. The Land Act had many predecessors, of course,
because gradually Europeans had been confining Africans
onto smaller and smaller reserves. But it was the act of
1913 that definitively institutionalized the situation and set
the stage for the formation of the South African Apartheid
regime, with the white minority having both the political and
economic rights and the black majority being excluded from
both. The act specified that several land reserves, including
the Transkei and the Ciskei, were to become the African
“Homelands.” Later these would become known as the
Bantustans, another part of the rhetoric of the Apartheid
regime in South Africa, since it claimed that the African
peoples of Southern Africa were not natives of the area but
were descended from the Bantu people who had migrated
out of Eastern Nigeria about a thousand years before. They
thus had no more—and of course, in practice, less—
entitlement to the land than the European settlers.
Map 16 (this page) shows the derisory amount of land
allocated to Africans by the 1913 Land Act and its
successor in 1936. It also records information from 1970
on the extent of a similar land allocation that took place
during the construction of another dual economy in
Zimbabwe, which we discuss in chapter 13.
The 1913 legislation also included provisions intended to
stop black sharecroppers and squatters from farming on
white-owned land in any capacity other than as labor
tenants. As the secretary for native affairs explained, “The
effect of the act was to put a stop, for the future, to all
transactions involving anything in the nature of partnership
between Europeans and natives in respect of land or the
fruits of land. All new contracts with natives must be
contracts of service. Provided there is a bona fide contract
of this nature there is nothing to prevent an employer from
paying a native in kind, or by the privilege of cultivating a
defined piece of ground … But the native cannot pay the
master anything for his right to occupy the land.”
To the development economists who visited South Africa
in the 1950s and ’60s, when the academic discipline was
taking shape and the ideas of Arthur Lewis were
spreading, the contrast between these Homelands and the
prosperous modern white European economy seemed to
be exactly what the dual economy theory was about. The
European part of the economy was urban and educated,
and used modern technology. The Homelands were poor,
rural, and backward; labor there was very unproductive;
people, uneducated. It seemed to be the essence of
timeless, backward Africa.
Except that the dual economy was not natural or
inevitable. It had been created by European colonialism.
Yes, the Homelands were poor and technologically
backward, and the people were uneducated. But all this
was an outcome of government policy, which had forcibly
stamped out African economic growth and created the
reservoir of cheap, uneducated African labor to be
employed in European-controlled mines and lands. After
1913 vast numbers of Africans were evicted from their
lands, which were taken over by whites, and crowded into
the Homelands, which were too small for them to earn an
independent living from. As intended, therefore, they would
be forced to look for a living in the white economy,
supplying their labor cheaply. As their economic incentives
collapsed, the advances that had taken place in the
preceding fifty years were all reversed. People gave up
their plows and reverted to farming with hoes—that is, if
they farmed at all. More often they were just available as
cheap labor, which the Homelands had been structured to
ensure.
It was not only the economic incentives that were
destroyed. The political changes that had started to take
place also went into reverse. The power of chiefs and
traditional rulers, which had previously been in decline, was
strengthened, because part of the project of creating a
cheap labor force was to remove private property in land.
So the chiefs’ control over land was reaffirmed. These
measures reached their apogee in 1951, when the
government passed the Bantu Authorities Act. As early as
1940, G. Findlay put his finger right on the issue:
Tribal tenure is a guarantee that the land will
never properly be worked and will never really
belong to the natives. Cheap labour must
have a cheap breeding place, and so it is
furnished to the Africans at their own
expense.
The dispossession of the African farmers led to their
mass impoverishment. It created not only the institutional
foundations of a backward economy, but the poor people to
stock it.
The available evidence demonstrates the reversal in
living standards in the Homelands after the Natives Land
Act of 1913. The Transkei and the Ciskei went into a
prolonged economic decline. The employment records
from the gold mining companies collected by the historian
Francis Wilson show that this decline was widespread in
the South African economy as a whole. Following the
Natives Land Act and other legislation, miners’ wages fell
by 30 percent between 1911 and 1921. In 1961, despite
relatively steady growth in the South African economy,
these wages were still 12 percent lower than they had been
in 1911. No wonder that over this period South Africa
became the most unequal country in the world.
But even in these circumstances, couldn’t black Africans
have made their way in the European, modern economy,
started a business, or have become educated and begun a
career? The government made sure these things could not
happen. No African was allowed to own property or start a
business in the European part of the economy—the 87
percent of the land. The Apartheid regime also realized that
educated Africans competed with whites rather than
supplying cheap labor to the mines and to white-owned
agriculture. As early as 1904 a system of job reservation for
Europeans was introduced in the mining economy. No
African was allowed to be an amalgamator, an assayer, a
banksman, a blacksmith, a boiler maker, a brass finisher, a
brassmolder, a bricklayer … and the list went on and on, all
the way to woodworking machinist. At a stroke, Africans
were banned from occupying any skilled job in the mining
sector. This was the first incarnation of the famous “colour
bar,” one of the several racist inventions of South Africa’s
regime. The colour bar was extended to the entire economy
in 1926, and lasted until the 1980s. It is not surprising that
black Africans were uneducated; the South African state
not only removed the possibility of Africans benefiting
economically from an education but also refused to invest
in black schools and discouraged black education. This
policy reached its peak in the 1950s, when, under the
leadership of Hendrik Verwoerd, one of the architects of
the Apartheid regime that would last until 1994, the
government passed the Bantu Education Act. The
philosophy behind this act was bluntly spelled out by
Verwoerd himself in a speech in 1954:
The Bantu must be guided to serve his own
community in all respects. There is no place
for him in the European community above the
level of certain forms of labour … For that
reason it is to no avail to him to receive a
training which has as its aim absorption in
the European community while he cannot and
will not be absorbed there.
Naturally, the type of dual economy articulated in
Verwoerd’s speech is rather different from Lewis’s dual
economy theory. In South Africa the dual economy was not
an inevitable outcome of the process of development. It
was created by the state. In South Africa there was to be no
seamless movement of poor people from the backward to
the modern sector as the economy developed. On the
contrary, the success of the modern sector relied on the
existence of the backward sector, which enabled white
employers to make huge profits by paying very low wages
to black unskilled workers. In South Africa there would not
be a process of the unskilled workers from the traditional
sector gradually becoming educated and skilled, as
Lewis’s approach envisaged. In fact, the black workers
were purposefully kept unskilled and were barred from
high-skill occupations so that skilled white workers would
not face competition and could enjoy high wages. In South
Africa black Africans were indeed “trapped” in the
traditional economy, in the Homelands. But this was not the
problem of development that growth would make good. The
Homelands were what enabled the development of the
white economy.
It should also be no surprise that the type of economic
development that white South Africa was achieving was
ultimately limited, being based on extractive institutions the
whites had built to exploit the blacks. South African whites
had property rights, they invested in education, and they
were able to extract gold and diamonds and sell them
profitably in the world market. But over 80 percent of the
South African population was marginalized and excluded
from the great majority of desirable economic activities.
Blacks could not use their talents; they could not become
skilled workers, businessmen, entrepreneurs, engineers, or
scientists. Economic institutions were extractive; whites
became rich by extracting from blacks. Indeed, white South
Africans shared the living standards of people of Western
European countries, while black South Africans were
scarcely richer than those in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa.
This economic growth without creative destruction, from
which only the whites benefited, continued as long as
revenues from gold and diamonds increased. By the
1970s, however, the economy had stopped growing.
And it will again be no surprise that this set of extractive
economic institutions was built on foundations laid by a set
of highly extractive political institutions. Before its overthrow
in 1994, the South African political system vested all power
in whites, who were the only ones allowed to vote and run
for office. Whites dominated the police force, the military,
and all political institutions. These institutions were
structured under the military domination of white settlers. At
the time of the foundation of the Union of South Africa in
1910, the Afrikaner polities of the Orange Free State and
the Transvaal had explicit racial franchises, barring blacks
completely from political participation. Natal and the Cape
Colony allowed blacks to vote if they had sufficient property,
which typically they did not. The status quo of Natal and the
Cape Colony was kept in 1910, but by the 1930s, blacks
had been explicitly disenfranchised everywhere in South
Africa.
The dual economy of South Africa did come to an end in
1994. But not because of the reasons that Sir Arthur Lewis
theorized about. It was not the natural course of economic
development that ended the color bar and the Homelands.
Black South Africans protested and rose up against the
regime that did not recognize their basic rights and did not
share the gains of economic growth with them. After the
Soweto uprising of 1976, the protests became more
organized and stronger, ultimately bringing down the
Apartheid state. It was the empowerment of blacks who
managed to organize and rise up that ultimately ended
South Africa’s dual economy in the same way that South
African whites’ political force had created it in the first
place.
DEVELOPMENT REVERSED
World inequality today exists because during the nineteenth
and twentieth centuries some nations were able to take
advantage of the Industrial Revolution and the technologies
and methods of organization that it brought while others
were unable to do so. Technological change is only one of
the engines of prosperity, but it is perhaps the most critical
one. The countries that did not take advantage of new
technologies did not benefit from the other engines of
prosperity, either. As we have shown in this and the
previous chapter, this failure was due to their extractive
institutions, either a consequence of the persistence of their
absolutist regimes or because they lacked centralized
states. But this chapter has also shown that in several
instances the extractive institutions that underpinned the
poverty of these nations were imposed, or at the very least
further strengthened, by the very same process that fueled
European growth: European commercial and colonial
expansion. In fact, the profitability of European colonial
empires was often built on the destruction of independent
polities and indigenous economies around the world, or on
the creation of extractive institutions essentially from the
ground up, as in the Caribbean islands, where, following
the almost total collapse of the native populations,
Europeans imported African slaves and set up plantation
systems.
We will never know what the trajectories of independent
city-states such as those in the Banda Islands, in Aceh, or
in Burma (Myanmar) would have been without the
European intervention. They may have had their own
indigenous Glorious Revolution or slowly moved toward
more inclusive political and economic institutions based on
growing trade in spices and other valuable commodities.
But this possibility was removed by the expansion of the
Dutch East India Company. The company stamped out any
hope of indigenous development in the Banda Islands by
carrying out its genocide. Its threat also made the citystates in many other parts of Southeast Asia pull back from
commerce.
The story of one of the oldest civilizations in Asia, India,
is similar, though the reversing of development was done
not by the Dutch but by the British. India was the largest
producer and exporter of textiles in the world in the
eighteenth century. Indian calicoes and muslins flooded the
European markets and were traded throughout Asia and
even eastern Africa. The main agent that carried them to
the British Isles was the English East India Company.
Founded in 1600, two years before its Dutch version, the
English East India Company spent the seventeenth century
trying to establish a monopoly on the valuable exports from
India. It had to compete with the Portuguese, who had
bases in Goa, Chittagong, and Bombay, and the French
with bases at Pondicherry, Chandernagore, Yanam, and
Karaikal. Worse still for the East India Company was the
Glorious Revolution, as we saw in chapter 7. The monopoly
of the East India Company had been granted by the Stuart
kings and was immediately challenged after 1688, and
even abolished for over a decade. The loss of power was
significant, as we saw earlier (this page–this page),
because British textile producers were able to induce
Parliament to ban the import of calicoes, the East India
Company’s most profitable item of trade. In the eighteenth
century, under the leadership of Robert Clive, the East India
Company switched strategies and began to develop a
continental empire. At the time, India was split into many
competing polities, though many were still nominally under
the control of the Mughal emperor in Delhi. The East India
Company first expanded in Bengal in the east, vanquishing
the local powers at the battles of Plassey in 1757 and
Buxar in 1764. The East India Company looted local wealth
and took over, and perhaps even intensified, the extractive
taxation institutions of the Mughal rulers of India. This
expansion coincided with the massive contraction of the
Indian textile industry, since, after all, there was no longer a
market for these goods in Britain. The contraction went
along with de-urbanization and increased poverty. It
initiated a long period of reversed development in India.
Soon, instead of producing textiles, Indians were buying
them from Britain and growing opium for the East India
Company to sell in China.
The Atlantic slave trade repeated the same pattern in
Africa, even if starting from less developed conditions than
in Southeast Asia and India. Many African states were
turned into war machines intent on capturing and selling
slaves to Europeans. As conflict between different polities
and states grew into continuous warfare, state institutions,
which in many cases had not yet achieved much political
centralization in any case, crumbled in large parts of Africa,
paving the way for persistent extractive institutions and the
failed states of today that we will study later. In a few parts
of Africa that escaped the slave trade, such as South
Africa, Europeans imposed a different set of institutions,
this time designed to create a reservoir of cheap labor for
their mines and farms. The South African state created a
dual economy, preventing 80 percent of the population from
taking part in skilled occupations, commercial farming, and
entrepreneurship. All this not only explains why
industrialization passed by large parts of the world but also
encapsulates how economic development may sometimes
feed on, and even create, the underdevelopment in some
other part of the domestic or the world economy.
10.
THE DIFFUSION OF PROSPERITY
HONOR AMONG THIEVES
EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY ENGLAND—or
more appropriately,
Great Britain after the 1707 union of England, Wales, and
Scotland—had a simple solution for dealing with criminals:
out of sight, out of mind, or at least out of trouble. They
transported many to penal colonies in the empire. Before
the War of Independence, the convicted criminals, convicts,
were primarily sent to the American colonies. After 1783
the independent United States of America was no longer
so welcoming to British convicts, and the authorities in
Britain had to find another home for them. They first thought
about West Africa. But the climate, with endemic diseases
such as malaria and yellow fever, against which Europeans
had no immunity, was so deadly that the authorities
decided it was unacceptable to send even convicts to the
“white man’s graveyard.” Their next option was Australia. Its
eastern seaboard had been explored by the great seafarer
Captain James Cook. On April 29, 1770, Cook landed in a
wonderful inlet, which he called Botany Bay in honor of the
rich species found there by the naturalists traveling with
him. This seemed like an ideal location to British
government officials. The climate was temperate, and the
place was as far out of sight and mind as could be
imagined.
A fleet of eleven ships packed with convicts was on its
way to Botany Bay in January 1788 under the command of
Captain Arthur Phillip. On January 26, now celebrated as
Australia Day, they set up camp in Sydney Cove, the heart
of the modern city of Sydney. They called the colony New
South Wales. On board one of the ships, the Alexander,
captained by Duncan Sinclair, were a married couple of
convicts, Henry and Susannah Cable. Susannah had been
found guilty of stealing and was initially sentenced to death.
This sentence was later commuted to fourteen years and
transportation to the American colonies. That plan fell
through with the independence of the United States. In the
meantime, in Norwich Castle Jail, Susannah met and fell in
love with Henry, a fellow convict. In 1787 she was picked to
be transported to the new convict colony in Australia with
the first fleet heading there. But Henry was not. By this time
Susannah and Henry had a young son, also called Henry.
This decision meant the family was to be separated.
Susannah was moved to a prison boat moored on the
Thames, but the word got out about this wrenching event
and reached the ears of a philanthropist, Lady Cadogan.
Lady Cadogan organized a successful campaign to reunite
the Cables. Now they were both to be transported with
young Henry to Australia. Lady Cadogan also raised £20 to
purchase goods for them, which they would receive in
Australia. They sailed on the Alexander, but when they
arrived in Botany Bay, the parcel of goods had vanished, or
at least that is what Captain Sinclair claimed.
What could the Cables do? Not much, according to
English or British law. Even though in 1787, Britain had
inclusive political and economic institutions, this
inclusiveness did not extend to convicts, who had
practically no rights. They could not own property. They
could certainly not sue anyone in court. In fact, they could
not even give evidence in court. Sinclair knew this and
probably stole the parcel. Though he would never admit it,
he did boast that he could not be sued by the Cables. He
was right according to British law. And in Britain the whole
affair would have ended there. But not in Australia. A writ
was issued to David Collins, the judge advocate there, as
follows:
Whereas Henry Cable and his wife, new
settlers of this place, had before they left
England a certain parcel shipped on board
the Alexander transport Duncan Sinclair
Master, consisting of cloaths and several
other articles suitable for their present
situation, which were collected and bought at
the expence of many charitable disposed
persons for the use of the said Henry Cable,
his wife and child. Several applications has
been made for the express purpose of
obtaining the said parcel from the Master of
the Alexander now lying at this port, and that
without effect (save and except) a small part
of the said parcel containing a few books, the
residue and remainder, which is of a more
considerable value still remains on board the
said ship Alexander, the Master of which,
seems to be very neglectfull in not causing
the same to be delivered, to its respective
owners as aforesaid.
Henry and Susannah, since they were both illiterate,
could not sign the writ and just put their “crosses” at the
bottom. The words “new settlers of this place” were later
crossed out, but were highly significant. Someone
anticipated that if Henry Cable and his wife were described
as convicts, the case would have no hope of proceeding.
Someone had come up instead with the idea of calling
them new settlers. This was probably a bit too much for
Judge Collins to take, and most likely he was the one who
had these words struck out. But the writ worked. Collins did
not throw out the case, and convened the court, with a jury
entirely made up of soldiers. Sinclair was called before the
court. Though Collins was less than enthusiastic about the
case, and the jury was composed of the people sent to
Australia to guard convicts such as the Cables, the Cables
won. Sinclair contested the whole affair on the grounds that
the Cables were criminals. But the verdict stood, and he
had to pay fifteen pounds.
To reach this verdict Judge Collins didn’t apply British
law; he ignored it. This was the first civil case adjudicated
in Australia. The first criminal case would have appeared
equally bizarre to those in Britain. A convict was found guilty
of stealing another convict’s bread, which was worth two
pence. At the time, such a case would not have come to
court, since convicts were not allowed to own anything.
Australia was not Britain, and its law would not be just
British. And Australia would soon diverge from Britain in
criminal and civil law as well as in a host of economic and
political institutions.
The penal colony of New South Wales initially consisted
of the convicts and their guards, mostly soldiers. There
were few “free settlers” in Australia until the 1820s, and the
transportation of convicts, though it stopped in New South
Wales in 1840, continued until 1868 in Western Australia.
Convicts had to perform “compulsory work,” essentially just
another name for forced labor, and the guards intended to
make money out of it. Initially the convicts had no pay. They
were given only food in return for the labor they performed.
The guards kept what they produced. But this system, like
the ones with which the Virginia Company experimented in
Jamestown, did not work very well, because convicts did
not have the incentives to work hard or do good work. They
were lashed or banished to Norfolk Island, just thirteen
square miles of territory situated more than one thousand
miles east of Australia in the Pacific Ocean. But since
neither banishing nor lashing worked, the alternative was to
give them incentives. This was not a natural idea to the
soldiers and guards. Convicts were convicts, and they were
not supposed to sell their labor or own property. But in
Australia there was nobody else to do the work. There were
of course Aboriginals, possibly as many as one million at
the time of the founding of New South Wales. But they were
spread out over a vast continent, and their density in New
South Wales was insufficient for the creation of an
economy based on their exploitation. There was no Latin
American option in Australia. The guards thus embarked
on a path that would ultimately lead to institutions that were
even more inclusive than those back in Britain. Convicts
were given a set of tasks to do, and if they had extra time,
they could work for themselves and sell what they
produced.
The guards also benefited from the convicts’ new
economic freedoms. Production increased, and the guards
set up monopolies to sell goods to the convicts. The most
lucrative of these was for rum. New South Wales at this
time, just like other British colonies, was run by a governor,
appointed by the British government. In 1806 Britain
appointed William Bligh, the man who seventeen years
previously, in 1789, had been captain of the H.M.S. Bounty,
during the famous “Mutiny on the Bounty.” Bligh was a strict
disciplinarian, a trait that was probably largely responsible
for the mutiny. His ways had not changed, and he
immediately challenged the rum monopolists. This would
lead to another mutiny, this time by the monopolists, led by
a former soldier, John Macarthur. The events, which came
to be known as the Rum Rebellion, again led to Bligh’s
being overpowered by rebels, this time on land rather than
aboard the Bounty. Macarthur had Bligh locked up. The
British authorities subsequently sent more soldiers to deal
with the rebellion. Macarthur was arrested and shipped
back to Britain. But he was soon released, and he returned
to Australia to play a major role in both the politics and
economics of the colony.
The roots of the Rum Rebellion were economic. The
strategy of giving the convicts incentives was making a lot
of money for men such as Macarthur, who arrived in
Australia as a soldier in the second group of ships that
landed in 1790. In 1796 he resigned from the army to
concentrate on business. By that time he already had his
first sheep, and realized that there was a lot of money to be
made in sheep farming and wool export. Inland from
Sydney were the Blue Mountains, which were finally
crossed in 1813, revealing vast expanses of open
grassland on the other side. It was sheep heaven.
Macarthur was soon the richest man in Australia, and he
and his fellow sheep magnates became known as the
Squatters, since the land on which they grazed their sheep
was not theirs. It was owned by the British government. But
at first this was a small detail. The Squatters were the elite
of Australia, or, more appropriately, the Squattocracy.
Even with a squattocracy, New South Wales did not look
anything like the absolutist regimes of Eastern Europe or of
the South American colonies. There were no serfs as in
Austria-Hungary and Russia, and no large indigenous
populations to exploit as in Mexico and Peru. Instead, New
South Wales was like Jamestown, Virginia, in many ways:
the elite ultimately found it in their interest to create
economic institutions that were significantly more inclusive
than those in Austria-Hungary, Russia, Mexico, and Peru.
Convicts were the only labor force, and the only way to
incentivize them was to pay them wages for the work they
were doing.
Convicts were soon allowed to become entrepreneurs
and hire other convicts. More notably, they were even given
land after completing their sentences, and they had all their
rights restored. Some of them started to get rich, even the
illiterate Henry Cable. By 1798 he owned a hotel called the
Ramping Horse, and he also had a shop. He bought a ship
and went into the trade of sealskins. By 1809 he owned at
least nine farms of about 470 acres and also a number of
shops and houses in Sydney.
The next conflict in New South Wales would be between
the elite and the rest of the society, made up of convicts,
ex-convicts, and their families. The elite, led by former
guards and soldiers such as Macarthur, included some of
the free settlers who had been attracted to the colony
because of the boom in the wool economy. Most of the
property was still in the hands of the elite, and the exconvicts and their descendants wanted an end to
transportation, the opportunity of trial by a jury of their
peers, and access to free land. The elite wanted none of
these. Their main concern was to establish legal title to the
lands they squatted on. The situation was again similar to
the events that had transpired in North America more than
two centuries earlier. As we saw in chapter 1, the victories
of the indentured servants against the Virginia Company
were followed by the struggles in Maryland and the
Carolinas. In New South Wales, the roles of Lord Baltimore
and Sir Anthony Ashley-Cooper were played by Macarthur
and the Squatters. The British government was again on
the side of the elite, though they also feared that one day
Macarthur and the Squatters might be tempted to declare
independence.
The British government dispatched John Bigge to the
colony in 1819 to head a commission of inquiry into the
developments there. Bigge was shocked by the rights that
the convicts enjoyed and surprised by the fundamentally
inclusive nature of the economic institutions of this penal
colony. He recommended a radical overhaul: convicts could
not own land, nobody should be allowed to pay convicts
wages anymore, pardons were to be restricted, ex-convicts
were not to be given land, and punishment was to be made
much more draconian. Bigge saw the Squatters as the
natural aristocracy of Australia and envisioned an
autocratic society dominated by them. This wasn’t to be.
While Bigge was trying to turn back the clock, ex-convicts
and their sons and daughters were demanding greater
rights. Most important, they realized, again just as in the
United States, that to consolidate their economic and
political rights fully they needed political institutions that
would include them in the process of decision making. They
demanded elections in which they could participate as
equals and representative institutions and assemblies in
which they could hold office.
The ex-convicts and their sons and daughters were led
by the colorful writer, explorer, and journalist William
Wentworth. Wentworth was one of the leaders of the first
expedition that crossed the Blue Mountains, which opened
the vast grasslands to the Squatters; a town on these
mountains is still named after him. His sympathies were
with the convicts, perhaps because of his father, who was
accused of highway robbery and had to accept
transportation to Australia to avoid trial and possible
conviction. At this time, Wentworth was a strong advocate
of more inclusive political institutions, an elected assembly,
trial by jury for ex-convicts and their families, and an end to
transportation to New South Wales. He started a
newspaper, the Australian, which would from then on lead
the attack on the existing political institutions. Macarthur
didn’t like Wentworth and certainly not what he was asking
for. He went through a list of Wentworth’s supporters,
characterizing them as follows:
sentenced to be hung since he came here
repeatedly flogged at the cart’s tail a
London Jew
Jew publican lately deprived of his license
auctioneer transported for trading in slaves
often flogged here
son of two convicts
a swindler—deeply in debt
an American adventurer
an attorney with a worthless character
a stranger lately failed here in a musick shop
married to the daughter to two convicts
married to a convict who was formerly a
tambourine girl.
Macarthur and the Squatters’ vigorous opposition could
not stop the tide in Australia, however. The demand for
representative institutions was strong and could not be
suppressed. Until 1823 the governor had ruled New South
Wales more or less on his own. In that year his powers
were limited by the creation of a council appointed by the
British government. Initially the appointees were from the
Squatters and nonconvict elite, Macarthur among them, but
this couldn’t last. In 1831 the governor Richard Bourke
bowed to pressure and for the first time allowed ex-convicts
to sit on juries. Ex-convicts and in fact many new free
settlers also wanted transportation of convicts from Britain
to stop, because it created competition in the labor market
and drove down wages. The Squatters liked low wages, but
they lost. In 1840 transportation to New South Wales was
stopped, and in 1842 a legislative council was created with
two-thirds of its members being elected (the rest
appointed). Ex-convicts could stand for office and vote if
they held enough property, and many did.
By the 1850s, Australia had introduced adult white male
suffrage. The demands of the citizens, ex-convicts and their
families, were now far ahead of what William Wentworth
had first imagined. In fact, by this time he was on the side of
conservatives insisting on an unelected Legislative Council.
But just like Macarthur before, Wentworth would not be able
to halt the tide toward more inclusive political institutions. In
1856 the state of Victoria, which had been carved out of
New South Wales in 1851, and the state of Tasmania
would become the first places in the world to introduce an
effective secret ballot in elections, which stopped vote
buying and coercion. Today we still call the standard
method of achieving secrecy in voting in elections the
Australian ballot.
The initial circumstances in Sydney, New South Wales,
were very similar to those in Jamestown, Virginia, 181
years earlier, though the settlers at Jamestown were mostly
indentured laborers, rather than convicts. In both cases the
initial circumstances did not allow for the creation of
extractive colonial institutions. Neither colony had dense
populations of indigenous peoples to exploit, ready access
to precious metals such as gold or silver, or soil and crops
that would make slave plantations economically viable. The
slave trade was still vibrant in the 1780s, and New South
Wales could have been filled up with slaves had it been
profitable. It wasn’t. Both the Virginia Company and the
soldiers and free settlers who ran New South Wales bowed
to the pressures, gradually creating inclusive economic
institutions that developed in tandem with inclusive political
institutions. This happened with even less of a struggle in
New South Wales than it had in Virginia, and subsequent
attempts to put this trend into reverse failed.
AUSTRALIA, LIKE THE UNITED STATES, experienced a different
path to inclusive institutions than the one taken by England.
The same revolutions that shook England during the Civil
War and then the Glorious Revolution were not needed in
the United States or Australia because of the very different
circumstances in which those countries were founded—
though this of course does not mean that inclusive
institutions were established without any conflict, and, in the
process, the United States had to throw off British
colonialism. In England there was a long history of
absolutist rule that was deeply entrenched and required a
revolution to remove it. In the United States and Australia,
there was no such thing. Though Lord Baltimore in
Maryland and John Macarthur in New South Wales might
have aspired to such a role, they could not establish a
strong enough grip on society for their plans to bear fruit.
The inclusive institutions established in the United States
and Australia meant that the Industrial Revolution spread
quickly to these lands and they began to get rich. The path
these countries took was followed by colonies such as
Canada and New Zealand.
There were still other paths to inclusive institutions. Large
parts of Western Europe took yet a third path to inclusive
institutions under the impetus of the French Revolution,
which overthrew absolutism in France and then generated
a series of interstate conflicts that spread institutional
reform across much of Western Europe. The economic
consequence of these reforms was the emergence of
inclusive economic institutions in most of Western Europe,
the Industrial Revolution, and economic growth.
BREAKING THE BARRIERS: THE FRENCH REVOLUTION
For the three centuries prior to 1789, France was ruled by
an absolutist monarchy. French society was divided into
three segments, the so-called estates. The aristocrats (the
nobility) made up the First Estate, the clergy the Second
Estate, and everybody else the Third Estate. Different
estates were subject to different laws, and the first two
estates had rights that the rest of the population did not.
The nobility and the clergy did not pay taxes, while the
citizens had to pay several different taxes, as we would
expect from a regime that was largely extractive. In fact, not
only was the Church exempt from taxes, but it also owned
large swaths of land and could impose its own taxes on
peasants. The monarch, the nobility, and the clergy enjoyed
a luxurious lifestyle, while much of the Third Estate lived in
dire poverty. Different laws not only guaranteed a greatly
advantageous economic position to the nobility and the
clergy, but it also gave them political power.
Life in French cities of the eighteenth century was harsh
and unhealthy. Manufacturing was regulated by powerful
guilds, which generated good incomes for their members
but prevented others from entering these occupations or
starting new businesses. The so-called ancien régime
prided itself on its continuity and stability. Entry by
entrepreneurs and talented individuals into new
occupations would create instability and was not tolerated.
If life in the cities was harsh, life in the villages was probably
worse. As we have seen, by this time the most extreme
form of serfdom, which tied people to the land and forced
them to work for and pay dues to the feudal lords, was long
in decline in France. Nevertheless, there were restrictions
on mobility and a plethora of feudal dues that the French
peasants were required to pay to the monarch, the nobility,
and the Church.
Against this background, the French Revolution was a
radical affair. On August 4, 1789, the National Constituent
Assembly entirely changed French laws by proposing a
new constitution. The first article stated:
The National Assembly hereby completely
abolishes the feudal system. It decrees that,
among the existing rights and dues, both
feudal and censuel, all those originating in or
representing real or personal serfdom shall
be abolished without indemnification.
Its ninth article then continued:
Pecuniary privileges, personal or real, in the
payment of taxes are abolished forever.
Taxes shall be collected from all the citizens,
and from all property, in the same manner
and in the same form. Plans shall be
considered by which the taxes shall be paid
proportionally by all, even for the last six
months of the current year.
Thus, in one swoop, the French Revolution abolished the
feudal system and all the obligations and dues that it
entailed, and it entirely removed the tax exemptions of the
nobility and the clergy. But perhaps what was most radical,
even unthinkable at the time, was the eleventh article, which
stated:
All citizens, without distinction of birth, are
eligible to any office or dignity, whether
ecclesiastical, civil, or military; and no
profession shall imply any derogation.
So there was now equality before the law for all, not only
in daily life and business, but also in politics. The reforms of
the revolution continued after August 4. It subsequently
abolished the Church’s authority to levy special taxes and
turned the clergy into employees of the state. Together with
the removal of the rigid political and social roles, critical
barriers against economic activities were stamped out. The
guilds and all occupational restrictions were abolished,
creating a more level playing field in the cities.
These reforms were a first step toward ending the reign
of the absolutist French monarchs. Several decades of
instability and war followed the declarations of August 4.
But an irreversible step was taken away from absolutism
and extractive institutions and toward inclusive political and
economic institutions. These changes would be followed by
other reforms in the economy and in politics, ultimately
culminating in the Third Republic in 1870, which would
bring to France the type of parliamentary system that the
Glorious Revolution put in motion in England. The French
Revolution created much violence, suffering, instability, and
war. Nevertheless, thanks to it, the French did not get
trapped with extractive institutions blocking economic
growth and prosperity, as did absolutist regimes of Eastern
Europe such as Austria-Hungary and Russia.
How did the absolutist French monarchy come to the
brink of the 1789 revolution? After all, we have seen that
many absolutist regimes were able to survive for long
periods of time, even in the midst of economic stagnation
and social upheaval. As with most instances of revolutions
and radical changes, it was a confluence of factors that
opened the way to the French Revolution, and these were
intimately related to the fact that Britain was industrializing
rapidly. And of course the path was, as usual, contingent,
as many attempts to stabilize the regime by the monarchy
failed and the revolution turned out to be more successful in
changing institutions in France and elsewhere in Europe
than many could have imagined in 1789.
Many laws and privileges in France were remnants of
medieval times. They not only favored the First and Second
Estates relative to the majority of the population but also
gave them privileges vis-à-vis the Crown. Louis XIV, the
Sun King, ruled France for fifty-four years, between 1661 to
his death in 1715, though he actually came to the throne in
1643, at the age of five. He consolidated the power of the
monarchy, furthering the process toward greater absolutism
that had started centuries earlier. Many monarchs often
consulted the so-called Assembly of Notables, consisting of
key aristocrats handpicked by the Crown. Though largely
consultative, the Assembly still acted as a mild constraint
on the monarch’s power. For this reason, Louis XIV ruled
without convening the Assembly. Under his reign, France
achieved some economic growth—for example, via
participation in Atlantic and colonial trade. Louis’s able
minister of finance, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, also oversaw
the development of government-sponsored and
government-controlled industry, a type of extractive growth.
This limited amount of growth benefited almost exclusively
the First and Second Estates. Louis XIV also wanted to
rationalize the French tax system, because the state often
had problems financing its frequent wars, its large standing
army, and the King’s own luxurious retinue, consumption,
and palaces. Its inability to tax even the minor nobility put
severe limits on its revenues.
Though there had been little economic growth, by the
time Louis XVI came to power in 1774, there had
nevertheless been large changes in society. Moreover, the
earlier fiscal problems had turned into a fiscal crisis, and
the Seven Years’ War with the British between 1756 and
1763, in which France lost Canada, had been particularly
costly. A number of significant figures attempted to balance
the royal budget by restructuring the debt and increasing
taxes; among them were Anne-Robert-Jacques Turgot, one
of the most famous economists of the time; Jacques
Necker, who would also play an important role after the
revolution; and Charles Alexandre de Calonne. But none
succeeded. Calonne, as part of his strategy, persuaded
Louis XVI to summon the Assembly of Notables. The king
and his advisers expected the Assembly to endorse his
reforms much in the same way as Charles I expected the
English Parliament to simply agree to pay for an army to
fight the Scottish when he called it in 1640. The Assembly
took an unexpected step and decreed that only a
representative body, the Estates-General, could endorse
such reforms.
The Estates-General was a very different body from the
Assembly of Notables. While the latter consisted of the
nobility and was largely handpicked by the Crown from
among major aristocrats, the former included
representatives from all three estates. It had last been
convened in 1614. When the Estates-General gathered in
1789 in Versailles, it became immediately clear that no
agreement could be reached. There were irreconcilable
differences, as the Third Estate saw this as its chance to
increase its political power and wanted to have more votes
in the Estates-General, which the nobility and the clergy
steadfastly opposed. The meeting ended on May 5, 1789,
without any resolution, except the decision to convene a
more powerful body, the National Assembly, deepening the
political crisis. The Third Estate, particularly the merchants,
businessmen, professionals, and artisans, who all had
demands for greater power, saw these developments as
evidence of their increasing clout. In the National Assembly,
they therefore demanded even more say in the
proceedings and greater rights in general. Their support in
the streets all over the country by citizens emboldened by
these developments led to the reconstitution of the
Assembly as the National Constituent Assembly on July 9.
Meanwhile, the mood in the country, and especially in
Paris, was becoming more radical. In reaction, the
conservative circles around Louis XVI persuaded him to
sack Necker, the reformist finance minister. This led to
further radicalization in the streets. The outcome was the
famous storming of the Bastille on July 14, 1789. From this
point onward, the revolution started in earnest. Necker was
reinstated, and the revolutionary Marquis de Lafayette was
put in charge of the National Guard of Paris.
Even more remarkable than the storming of the Bastille
were the dynamics of the National Constituent Assembly,
which on August 4, 1789, with its newfound confidence,
passed the new constitution, abolishing feudalism and the
special privileges of the First and Second Estates. But this
radicalization led to fractionalization within the Assembly,
since there were many conflicting views about the shape
that society should take. The first step was the formation of
local clubs, most notably the radical Jacobin Club, which
would later take control of the revolution. At the same time,
the nobles were fleeing the country in great numbers—the
so-called émigrés. Many were also encouraging the king to
break with the Assembly and take action, either by himself
or with the help of foreign powers, such as Austria, the
native country of Queen Marie Antoinette and where most
of the émigrés had fled. As many in the streets started to
see an imminent threat against the achievements of the
revolution over the past two years, radicalization gathered
pace. The National Constituent Assembly passed the final
version of the constitution on September 29, 1791, turning
France into a constitutional monarchy, with equality of rights
for all men, no feudal obligations or dues, and an end to all
trading restrictions imposed by guilds. France was still a
monarchy, but the king now had little role and, in fact, not
even his freedom.
But the dynamics of the revolution were then irreversibly
altered by the war that broke out in 1792 between France
and the “first coalition,” led by Austria. The war increased
the resolve and radicalism of the revolutionaries and of the
masses (the so-called sans-culottes, which translates as
“without knee breeches,” because they could not afford to
wear the style of trousers then fashionable). The outcome of
this process was the period known as the Terror, under the
command of the Jacobin faction led by Robespierre and
Saint-Just, unleashed after the executions of Louis XVI and
Marie Antoinette. It led to the executions of not only scores
of aristocrats and counterrevolutionaries but also several
major figures of the revolution, including the former popular
leaders Brissot, Danton, and Desmoulins.
But the Terror soon spun out of control and ultimately
came to an end in July 1794 with the execution of its own
leaders, including Robespierre and Saint-Just. There
followed a phase of relative stability, first under the
somewhat ineffective Directory, between 1795 and 1799,
and then with more concentrated power in the form of a
three-person Consulate, consisting of Ducos, Sieyès, and
Napoleon Bonaparte. Already during the Directory, the
young general Napoleon Bonaparte had become famous
for his military successes, and his influence was only to
grow after 1799. The Consulate soon became Napoleon’s
personal rule.
The years between 1799 and the end of Napoleon’s
reign, 1815, witnessed a series of great military victories
for France, including those at Austerlitz, Jena-Auerstadt,
and Wagram, bringing continental Europe to its knees.
They also allowed Napoleon to impose his will, his reforms,
and his legal code across a wide swath of territory. The fall
of Napoleon after his final defeat in 1815 would also bring a
period of retrenchment, more restricted political rights, and
the restoration of the French monarchy under Louis XVII.
But all these were simply slowing the ultimate emergence
of inclusive political institutions.
The forces unleashed by the revolution of 1789 ended
French absolutism and would inevitably, even if slowly, lead
to the emergence of inclusive institutions. France, and
those parts of Europe where the revolutionary reforms had
been exported, would thus take part in the industrialization
process already under way in the nineteenth century.
EXPORTING THE REVOLUTION
On the eve of the French Revolution in 1789, there were
severe restrictions placed on Jews throughout Europe. In
the German city of Frankfurt, for example, their lives were
regulated by orders set out in a statute dating from the
Middle Ages. There could be no more than five hundred
Jewish families in Frankfurt, and they all had to live in a
small, walled part of town, the Judengasse, the Jewish
ghetto. They could not leave the ghetto at night, on
Sundays, or during any Christian festival.
The Judengasse was incredibly cramped. It was a
quarter of a mile long but no more than twelve feet wide and
in some places less than ten feet wide. Jews lived under
constant repression and regulation. Each year, at most two
new families could be admitted to the ghetto, and at most
twelve Jewish couples could get married, and only if they
were both above the age of twenty-five. Jews could not
farm; they could also not trade in weapons, spices, wine, or
grain. Until 1726 they had to wear specific markers, two
concentric yellow rings for men and a striped veil for
women. All Jews had to pay a special poll tax.
As the French Revolution erupted, a successful young
businessman, Mayer Amschel Rothschild, lived in the
Frankfurt Judengasse. By the early 1780s, Rothschild had
established himself as the leading dealer in coins, metals,
and antiques in Frankfurt. But like all Jews in the city, he
could not open a business outside the ghetto or even live
outside it.
This was all to change soon. In 1791 the French National
Assembly emancipated French Jewry. The French armies
were now also occupying the Rhineland and emancipating
the Jews of Western Germany. In Frankfurt their effect
would be more abrupt and perhaps somewhat
unintentional. In 1796 the French bombarded Frankfurt,
demolishing half of the Judengasse in the process. Around
two thousand Jews were left homeless and had to move
outside the ghetto. The Rothschilds were among them.
Once outside the ghetto, and now freed from the myriad
regulations barring them from entrepreneurship, they could
seize new business opportunities. This included a contract
to supply grain to the Austrian army, something they would
previously not have been allowed to do.
By the end of the decade, Rothschild was one of the
richest Jews in Frankfurt and already a well-established
businessman. Full emancipation had to wait until 1811; it
was finally implemented by Karl von Dalberg, who had
been made Grand Duke of Frankfurt in Napoleon’s 1806
reorganization of Germany. Mayer Amschel told his son,
“[Y]ou are now a citizen.”
Such events did not end the struggle for Jewish
emancipation, since there were subsequent reverses,
particularly at the Congress of Vienna of 1815, which
formed the post-Napoleonic political settlement. But there
was no going back to the ghetto for the Rothschilds. Mayer
Amschel and his sons would soon have the largest bank in
nineteenth-century Europe, with branches in Frankfurt,
London, Paris, Naples, and Vienna.
This was not an isolated event. First the French
Revolutionary Armies and then Napoleon invaded large
parts of continental Europe, and in almost all the areas they
invaded, the existing institutions were remnants of medieval
times, empowering kings, princes, and nobility and
restricting trade both in cities and the countryside. Serfdom
and feudalism were much more important in many of these
areas than in France itself. In Eastern Europe, including
Prussia and the Hungarian part of Austria-Hungary, serfs
were tied to the land. In the West this strict form of serfdom
had already vanished, but peasants owed to feudal lords
various seigneurial fees, taxes, and labor obligations. For
example, in the polity of Nassau-Usingen, peasants were
subject to 230 different payments, dues, and services.
Dues included one that had to be paid after an animal had
been slaughtered, called the blood tithe; there was also a
bee tithe and a wax tithe. If a piece of property was bought
or sold, the lord was owed fees. The guilds regulating all
kinds of economic activity in the cities were also typically
stronger in these places than in France. In the western
German cities of Cologne and Aachen, the adoption of
spinning and weaving textile machines was blocked by
guilds. Many cities, from Berne in Switzerland to Florence
in Italy, were controlled by a few families.
The leaders of the French Revolution and, subsequently,
Napoleon exported the revolution to these lands, destroying
absolutism, ending feudal land relations, abolishing guilds,
and imposing equality before the law—the all-important
notion of rule of law, which we will discuss in greater detail
in the next chapter. The French Revolution thus prepared
not only France but much of the rest of Europe for inclusive
institutions and the economic growth that these would spur.
As we have seen, alarmed by the developments in
France, several European powers organized around
Austria in 1792 to attack France, ostensibly to free King
Louis XVI, but in reality to crush the French Revolution. The
expectation was that the makeshift armies fielded by the
revolution would soon crumble. But after some early
defeats, the armies of the new French Republic were
victorious in an initially defensive war. There were serious
organizational problems to overcome. But the French were
ahead of other countries in a major innovation: mass
conscription. Introduced in August 1793, mass conscription
allowed the French to field large armies and develop a
military advantage verging on supremacy even before
Napoleon’s famous military skills came on the scene.
Initial military success encouraged the Republic’s
leadership to expand France’s borders, with an eye toward
creating an effective buffer between the new republic and
the hostile monarchs of Prussia and Austria. The French
quickly seized the Austrian Netherlands and the United
Provinces, essentially today’s Belgium and the
Netherlands. The French also took over much of modernday Switzerland. In all three places, the French had strong
control through the 1790s.
Germany was initially hotly contested. But by 1795, the
French had firm control over the Rhineland, the western part
of Germany lying on the left bank of the Rhine River. The
Prussians were forced to recognize this fact under the
Treaty of Basel. Between 1795 and 1802, the French held
the Rhineland, but not any other part of Germany. In 1802
the Rhineland was officially incorporated into France.
Italy remained the main seat of war in the second half the
1790s, with the Austrians as the opponents. Savoy was
annexed by France in 1792, and a stalemate was reached
until Napoleon’s invasion in April 1796. In his first major
continental campaign, by early 1797, Napoleon had
conquered almost all Northern Italy, except for Venice,
which was taken by the Austrians. The Treaty of Campo
Formio, signed with the Austrians in October 1797, ended
the War of the First Coalition and recognized a number of
French-controlled republics in Northern Italy. However, the
French continued to expand their control over Italy even
after this treaty, invading the Papal States and establishing
the Roman Republic in March 1798. In January 1799,
Naples was conquered and the Parthenopean Republic
created. With the exception of Venice, which remained
Austrian, the French now controlled the entire Italian
peninsula either directly, as in the case of Savoy, or through
satellite states, such as the Cisalpine, Ligurian, Roman,
and Parthenopean republics.
There was further back-and-forth in the War of the
Second Coalition, between 1798 and 1801, but this ended
with the French essentially remaining in control. The French
revolutionary armies quickly started carrying out a radical
process of reform in the lands they’d conquered, abolishing
the remaining vestiges of serfdom and feudal land relations
and imposing equality before the law. The clergy were
stripped of their special status and power, and the guilds in
urban areas were stamped out or at the very least much
weakened. This happened in the Austrian Netherlands
immediately after the French invasion in 1795 and in the
United Provinces, where the French founded the Batavian
Republic, with political institutions very similar to those in
France. In Switzerland the situation was similar, and the
guilds as well as feudal landlords and the Church were
defeated, feudal privileges removed, and the guilds
abolished and expropriated.
What was started by the French Revolutionary Armies
was continued, in one form or another, by Napoleon.
Napoleon was first and foremost interested in establishing
firm control over the territories he conquered. This
sometimes involved cutting deals with local elites or putting
his family and associates in charge, as during his brief
control of Spain and Poland. But Napoleon also had a
genuine desire to continue and deepen the reforms of the
revolution. Most important, he codified the Roman law and
the ideas of equality before the law into a legal system that
became known as the Code Napoleon. Napoleon saw this
code as his greatest legacy and wished to impose it in
every territory he controlled.
Of course, the reforms imposed by the French Revolution
and Napoleon were not irreversible. In some places, such
as in Hanover, Germany, the old elites were reinstated
shortly after Napoleon’s fall and much of what the French
achieved was lost for good. But in many other places,
feudalism, the guilds, and the nobility were permanently
destroyed or weakened. For instance, even after the
French left, in many cases the Code Napoleon remained in
effect.
All in all, French armies wrought much suffering in
Europe, but they also radically changed the lay of the land.
In much of Europe, gone were feudal relations; the power of
the guilds; the absolutist control of monarchs and princes;
the grip of the clergy on economic, social, and political
power; and the foundation of ancien régime, which treated
different people unequally based on their birth status.
These changes created the type of inclusive economic
institutions that would then allow industrialization to take
root in these places. By the middle of the nineteenth
century, industrialization was rapidly under way in almost all
the places that the French controlled, whereas places such
as Austria-Hungary and Russia, which the French did not
conquer, or Poland and Spain, where French hold was
temporary and limited, were still largely stagnant.
SEEKING MODERNITY
In the autumn of 1867, Ōkubo Toshimichi, a leading courtier
of the feudal Japanese Satsuma domain, traveled from the
capital of Edo, now Tokyo, to the regional city of
Yamaguchi. On October 14 he met with leaders of the
Chōshū domain. He had a simple proposal: they would join
forces, march their armies to Edo, and overthrow the
shogun, the ruler of Japan. By this time Ōkubo Toshimichi
already had the leaders of the Tosa and Aki domains on
board. Once the leaders of the powerful Chōshū agreed, a
secret Satcho Alliance was formed.
In 1868 Japan was an economically underdeveloped
country that had been controlled since 1600 by the
Tokugawa family, whose ruler had taken the title shogun
(commander) in 1603. The Japanese emperor was
sidelined and assumed a purely ceremonial role. The
Tokugawa shoguns were the dominant members of a class
of feudal lords who ruled and taxed their own domains,
among them those of Satsuma, ruled by the Shimazu
family. These lords, along with their military retainers, the
famous samurai, ran a society that was similar to that of
medieval Europe, with strict occupational categories,
restrictions on trade, and high rates of taxation on farmers.
The shogun ruled from Edo, where he monopolized and
controlled foreign trade and banned foreigners from the
country. Political and economic institutions were extractive,
and Japan was poor.
But the domination of the shogun was not complete.
Even as the Tokugawa family took over the country in 1600,
they could not control everyone. In the south of the country,
the Satsuma domain remained quite autonomous and was
even allowed to trade independently with the outside world
through the Ryūkyū Islands. It was in the Satsuma capital of
Kagoshima where Ōkubo Toshimichi was born in 1830. As
the son of a samurai, he, too, became a samurai. His talent
was spotted early on by Shimazu Nariakira, the lord of
Satsuma, who quickly promoted him in the bureaucracy. At
the time, Shimazu Nariakira had already formulated a plan
to use Satsuma troops to overthrow the shogun. He wanted
to expand trade with Asia and Europe, abolish the old
feudal economic institutions, and construct a modern state
in Japan. His nascent plan was cut short by his death in
1858. His successor, Shimazu Hisamitsu, was more
circumspect, at least initially.
Ōkubo Toshimichi had by now become more and more
convinced that Japan needed to overthrow the feudal
shogunate, and he eventually convinced Shimazu
Hisamitsu. To rally support for their cause, they wrapped it
in outrage over the sidelining of the emperor. The treaty
(Ōkubo Toshimichi had already signed with the Tosa
domain asserted that “a country does not have two
monarchs, a home does not have two masters; government
devolves to one ruler.” But the real intention was not simply
to restore the emperor to power but to change the political
and economic institutions completely. On the Tosa side,
one of the treaty’s signers was Sakamoto Ryūma. As
Satsuma and Chōshū mobilized their armies, Sakamoto
Ryūma presented the shogun with an eight-point plan,
urging him to resign to avoid civil war. The plan was radical,
and though clause 1 stated that “political power of the
country should be returned to the Imperial Court, and all
decrees issued by the Court,” it included far more than just
the restoration of the emperor. Clauses 2, 3, 4, and 5
stated:
2. Two legislative bodies, an Upper and Lower house,
should be established, and all government measures
should be decided on the basis of general opinion.
3. Men of ability among the lords, nobles and people at
large should be employed as councillors, and
traditional offices of the past which have lost their
purpose should be abolished.
4. Foreign affairs should be carried on according to
appropriate regulations worked out on the basis of
general opinion.
5. Legislation and regulations of earlier times should
be set aside and a new and adequate code should be
selected.
Shogun Yoshinobu agreed to resign, and on January 3,
1868, the Meiji Restoration was declared; Emperor Kōmei
and, one month later after Kōmei died, his son Meiji were
restored to power. Though Satsuma and Chōshū forces
now occupied Edo and the imperial capital Kyōto, they
feared that the Tokugawas would attempt to regain power
and re-create the shogunate. (Ōkubo Toshimichi wanted
the Tokugawas crushed forever. He persuaded the
emperor to abolish the Tokugawa domain and confiscate
their lands. On January 27 the former shogun Yoshinobu
attacked Satsuma and Chōshū forces, and civil war broke
out; it raged until the summer, when finally the Tokugawas
were vanquished.
Following the Meiji Restoration there was a process of
transformative institutional reforms in Japan. In 1869
feudalism was abolished, and the three hundred fiefs were
surrendered to the government and turned into prefectures,
under the control of an appointed governor. Taxation was
centralized, and a modern bureaucratic state replaced the
old feudal one. In 1869 the equality of all social classes
before the law was introduced, and restrictions on internal
migration and trade were abolished. The samurai class
was abolished, though not without having to put down some
rebellions. Individual property rights on land were
introduced, and people were allowed freedom to enter and
practice any trade. The state became heavily involved in
the construction of infrastructure. In contrast to the attitudes
of absolutist regimes to railways, in 1869 the Japanese
regime formed a steamship line between Tokyo and Osaka
and built the first railway between Tokyo and Yokohama. It
also began to develop a manufacturing industry, and
(Ōkubo Toshimichi, as minister of finance, oversaw the
beginning of a concerted effort of industrialization. The lord
of Satsuma domain had been a leader in this, building
factories for pottery, cannon, and cotton yarn and importing
English textile machinery to create the first modern cotton
spinning mill in Japan in 1861. He also built two modern
shipyards. By 1890 Japan was the first Asian country to
adopt a written constitution, and it created a constitutional
monarchy with an elected parliament, the Diet, and an
independent judiciary. These changes were decisive
factors in enabling Japan to be the primary beneficiary from
the Industrial Revolution in Asia.
IN THE MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY both China and Japan were
poor nations, languishing under absolutist regimes. The
absolutist regime in China had been suspicious of change
for centuries. Though there were many similarities between
China and Japan—the Tokugawa shogunate had also
banned overseas trade in the seventeenth century, as
Chinese emperors had done earlier, and were opposed to
economic and political change—there were also notable
political differences. China was a centralized bureaucratic
empire ruled by an absolute emperor. The emperor
certainly faced constraints on his power, the most important
of which was the threat of rebellion. During the period 1850
to 1864, the whole of southern China was ravaged by the
Taiping Rebellion, in which millions died either in conflict or
through mass starvation. But opposition to the emperor
was not institutionalized.
The structure of Japanese political institutions was
different. The shogunate had sidelined the emperor, but as
we have seen, the Tokugawa power was not absolute, and
domains such as that of the Satsumas maintained
independence, even the ability to conduct foreign trade on
their own behalf.
As with France, an important consequence of the British
Industrial Revolution for China and Japan was military
vulnerability. China was humbled by British sea power
during the First Opium War, between 1839 and 1842, and
the same threat became all too real for the Japanese as
U.S. warships, led by Commodore Matthew Perry, pulled
into Edo Bay in 1853. The reality that economic
backwardness created military backwardness was part of
the impetus behind Shimazu Nariakira’s plan to overthrow
the shogunate and put in motion the changes that eventually
led to the Meiji Restoration. The leaders of the Satsuma
domain realized that economic growth—perhaps even
Japanese survival—could be achieved only by institutional
reforms, but the shogun opposed this because his power
was tied to the existing set of institutions. To exact reforms,
the shogun had to be overthrown, and he was. The situation
was similar in China, but the different initial political
institutions made it much harder to overthrow the emperor,
something that happened only in 1911. Instead of reforming
institutions, the Chinese tried to match the British militarily
by importing modern weapons. The Japanese built their
own armaments industry.
As a consequence of these initial differences, each
country responded differently to the challenges of the
nineteenth century, and Japan and China diverged
dramatically in the face of the critical juncture created by the
Industrial Revolution. While Japanese institutions were
being transformed and the economy was embarking on a
path of rapid growth, in China forces pushing for
institutional change were not strong enough, and extractive
institutions persisted largely unabated until they would take
a turn for the worse with Mao’s communist revolution in
1949.
ROOTS OF WORLD INEQUALITY
This and the previous three chapters have told the story of
how inclusive economic and political institutions emerged
in England to make the Industrial Revolution possible, and
why certain countries benefited from the Industrial
Revolution and embarked on the path to growth, while
others did not or, in fact, steadfastly refused to allow even
the beginning of industrialization. Whether a country did
embark on industrialization was largely a function of its
institutions. The United States, which underwent a
transformation similar to the English Glorious Revolution,
had already developed its own brand of inclusive political
and economic institutions by the end of the eighteenth
century. It would thus become the first nation to exploit the
new technologies coming from the British Isles, and would
soon surpass Britain and become the forerunner of
industrialization and technological change. Australia
followed a similar path to inclusive institutions, even if
somewhat later and somewhat less noticed. Its citizens, just
like those in England and the United States, had to fight to
obtain inclusive institutions. Once these were in place,
Australia would launch its own process of economic growth.
Australia and the United States could industrialize and
grow rapidly because their relatively inclusive institutions
would not block new technologies, innovation, or creative
destruction.
Not so in most of the other European colonies. Their
dynamics would be quite the opposite of those in Australia
and the United States. Lack of a native population or
resources to be extracted made colonialism in Australia
and the United States a very different sort of affair, even if
their citizens had to fight hard for their political rights and for
inclusive institutions. In the Moluccas as in the many other
places Europeans colonized in Asia, in the Caribbean, and
in South America, citizens had little chance of winning such
a fight. In these places, European colonists imposed a new
brand of extractive institutions, or took over whatever
extractive institutions they found, in order to be able to
extract valuable resources, ranging from spices and sugar
to silver and gold. In many of these places, they put in
motion a set of institutional changes that would make the
emergence of inclusive institutions very unlikely. In some of
them they explicitly stamped out whatever burgeoning
industry or inclusive economic institutions existed. Most of
these places would be in no situation to benefit from
industrialization in the nineteenth century or even in the
twentieth.
The dynamics in the rest of Europe were also quite
different from those in Australia and the United States. As
the Industrial Revolution in Britain was gathering speed at
the end of the eighteenth century, most European countries
were ruled by absolutist regimes, controlled by monarchs
and by aristocracies whose major source of income was
from their landholdings or from trading privileges they
enjoyed thanks to prohibitive entry barriers. The creative
destruction that would be wrought by the process of
industrialization would erode the leaders’ trading profits
and take resources and labor away from their lands. The
aristocracies would be economic losers from
industrialization. More important, they would also be
political losers, as the process of industrialization would
undoubtedly create instability and political challenges to
their monopoly of political power.
But the institutional transitions in Britain and the Industrial
Revolution created new opportunities and challenges for
European states. Though there was absolutism in Western
Europe, the region had also shared much of the institutional
drift that had impacted Britain in the previous millennium.
But the situation was very different in Eastern Europe, the
Ottoman Empire, and China. These differences mattered
for the dissemination of industrialization. Just like the Black
Death or the rise of Atlantic trade, the critical juncture
created by industrialization intensified the ever-present
conflict over institutions in many European nations. A major
factor was the French Revolution of 1789. The end of
absolutism in France opened the way for inclusive
institutions, and the French ultimately embarked on
industrialization and rapid economic growth. The French
Revolution in fact did more than that. It exported its
institutions by invading and forcibly reforming the extractive
institutions of several neighboring countries. It thus opened
the way to industrialization not only in France, but in
Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and parts of
Germany and Italy. Farther east the reaction was similar to
that after the Black Death, when, instead of crumbling,
feudalism intensified. Austria-Hungary, Russia, and the
Ottoman Empire fell even further behind economically, but
their absolutist monarchies managed to stay in place until
the First World War.
Elsewhere in the world, absolutism was as resilient as in
Eastern Europe. This was particularly true in China, where
the Ming-Qing transition led to a state committed to
building a stable agrarian society and hostile to
international trade. But there were also institutional
differences that mattered in Asia. If China reacted to the
Industrial Revolution as Eastern Europe did, Japan reacted
in the same way as Western Europe. Just as in France, it
took a revolution to change the system, this time one led by
the renegade lords of the Satsuma, Chōshū, Tosa, and Aki
domains. These lords overthrew the shogun, created the
Meiji Restoration, and moved Japan onto the path of
institutional reforms and economic growth.
We also saw that absolutism was resilient in isolated
Ethiopia. Elsewhere on the continent the very same force of
international trade that helped to transform English
institutions in the seventeenth century locked large parts of
western and central Africa into highly extractive institutions
via the slave trade. This destroyed societies in some
places and led to the creation of extractive slaving states in
others.
The institutional dynamics we have described ultimately
determined which countries took advantage of the major
opportunities present in the nineteenth century onward and
which ones failed to do so. The roots of the world inequality
we observe today can be found in this divergence. With a
few exceptions, the rich countries of today are those that
embarked on the process of industrialization and
technological change starting in the nineteenth century, and
the poor ones are those that did not.
11.
THE VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
THE BLACK ACT
W INDSOR CASTLE, located just west of London, is one of
the great royal residencies of England. In the early
eighteenth century, the castle was surrounded by a great
forest, full of deer, though little of this remains today. One of
the keepers of the forest in 1722, Baptist Nunn, was locked
in to a violent conflict. On June 27 he recorded,
Blacks came in the night shot at me 3 times 2
bullets into my chamber window and [I]
agreed to pay them 5 guineas at Crowthorne
on the 30th.
Another entry in Nunn’s diary read, “A fresh surprise. One
appeared disguised with a message of destruction.”
Who were these mysterious “Blacks” making threats,
shooting at Nunn, and demanding money? The Blacks
were groups of local men who had their faces “blacked” to
conceal their appearance at night. They appeared widely
across southern England in this period, killing and maiming
deer and other animals, burning down haystacks and
barns, and destroying fences and fish ponds. On the
surface it was sheer lawlessness, but it wasn’t. Illegal
hunting (poaching) deer in lands owned by the king or other
members of the aristocracy had been going on for a long
time. In the 1640s, during the Civil War, the entire
population of deer at Windsor Castle was killed. After the
Restoration in 1660, when Charles II came to the throne,
the deer park was restocked. But the Blacks were not just
poaching deer to eat; they also engaged in wanton
destruction. To what end?
A crucial building block of the Glorious Revolution of
1688 was the pluralistic nature of interests represented in
Parliament. None of the merchants, industrialists, gentry, or
aristocracy allied with William of Orange and then with the
Hanoverian monarchs, who succeeded Queen Anne in
1714, were strong enough to impose their will unilaterally.
Attempts at restoring the Stuart monarchy continued
throughout much of the eighteenth century. After James II’s
death in 1701, his son, James Francis Edward Stuart, the
“Old Pretender,” was recognized as the lawful heir to the
English Crown by France, Spain, the pope, and supporters
of the Stuart monarchy in England and Scotland, the socalled Jacobites. In 1708 the Old Pretender attempted to
take back the throne with support of French troops, but was
unsuccessful. In the ensuing decades there would be
several Jacobite revolts, including major ones in 1715 and
1719. In 1745–46, the Old Pretender’s son, Charles
Edward Stuart, the “Young Pretender,” made an attempt to
take back the throne, but his forces were defeated by the
British army.
The Whig political party, which as we saw (this page–this
page) was founded in the 1670s to represent the new
mercantile and economic interests, was the main
organization behind the Glorious Revolution, and the Whigs
dominated Parliament from 1714 to 1760. Once in power,
they were tempted to use their newly found position to prey
on the rights of others, to have their cake and eat it, too.
They were no different from the Stuart kings, but their power
was far from absolute. It was constrained both by
competing groups in Parliament, particularly the Tory Party
which had formed to oppose the Whigs, and by the very
institutions that they had fought to introduce to strengthen
Parliament and to prevent the emergence of a new
absolutism and the return of the Stuarts. The pluralistic
nature of society that emerged from the Glorious Revolution
also meant that the population at large, even those without
formal representation in Parliament, had been empowered,
and “blacking” was precisely a response by the common
people to perceptions that the Whigs were exploiting their
position.
The case of William Cadogan, a successful general in
the War of the Spanish Succession between 1701 and
1714 and in the suppression of the Jacobite revolts,
illustrates the sort of encroachment of common people’s
rights by the Whigs that led to blacking. George I made
Cadogan a baron in 1716 and then an earl in 1718. He was
also an influential member of the Regency Council of Lords
Justices, which presided over major affairs of state, and he
served as the acting commander in chief. He bought a
large property of about a thousand acres at Caversham,
about twenty miles west of Windsor. There he built a grand
house and ornate gardens and laid out a 240-acre deer
park. Yet this property was consolidated by encroaching on
the rights of those around the estate. People were evicted,
and their traditional rights to graze animals and collect peat
and firewood were abrogated. Cadogan faced the wrath of
the Blacks. On January 1, 1722, and again in July, the park
was raided by mounted and armed Blacks. The first attack
killed sixteen deer. Earl Cadogan was not alone. The
estates of many notable landowners and politicians were
also raided by the Blacks.
The Whig government was not going to take this lying
down. In May 1723, Parliament passed the Black Act,
which created an extraordinary fifty new offenses that were
punishable by hanging. The Black Act made it a crime not
only to carry weapons but to have a blackened face. The
law in fact was soon amended to make blacking
punishable by hanging. The Whig elites went about
implementing the law with gusto. Baptist Nunn set up a
network of informers in Windsor Forest to discover the
identity of the Blacks. Soon several were arrested. The
transition from arrest to hanging ought to have been a
straightforward affair. After all, the Black Act had already
been enacted, the Whigs were in charge of Parliament,
Parliament was in charge of the country, and the Blacks
were acting directly contrary to the interests of some
powerful Whigs. Even Sir Robert Walpole, secretary of
state, then prime minister—and like Cadogan, another
influential member of the Regency Council of the Lords
Justices—was involved. He had a vested interest in
Richmond Park in southwest London, which had been
created out of common land by Charles I. This park also
encroached upon the traditional rights of local residents to
graze their animals, hunt hares and rabbits, and collect
firewood. But the ending of these rights appears to have
been rather laxly enforced, and grazing and hunting
continued, until Walpole arranged for his son to become the
park ranger. At this time, the park was closed off, a new
wall was constructed, and man traps were installed.
Walpole liked hunting deer, and he had a lodge built for
himself at Houghton, within the park. The animosity of local
Blacks was soon ignited.
On November 10, 1724, a local resident outside the
park, John Huntridge, was accused of aiding deer stealers
and abetting known Blacks, both crimes punishable by
hanging. The prosecution of Huntridge came right from the
top, initiated by the Regency Council of Lords Justices,
which Walpole and Cadogan dominated. Walpole went so
far as to extract evidence himself as to Huntridge’s guilt
from an informant, Richard Blackburn. Conviction ought to
have been a foregone conclusion, but it wasn’t. After a trial
of eight or nine hours, the jury found Huntridge innocent,
partly on procedural grounds, since there were irregularities
with the way the evidence had been collected.
Not all Blacks or those who sympathized with them were
as lucky as Huntridge. Though some others were also
acquitted or had their convictions commuted, many were
hanged or transported to the penal colony of choice at the
time, North America; the law in fact stayed on the statute
books until it was repealed in 1824. Yet Huntridge’s victory
is remarkable. The jury was made up not of Huntridge’s
peers, but of major landowners and gentry, who ought to
have sympathized with Walpole. But this was no longer the
seventeenth century, where the Court of Star Chamber
would simply follow the wishes of Stuart monarchs and act
as an open tool of repression against their opponents, and
where kings could remove judges whose decisions they did
not like. Now the Whigs also had to abide by the rule of law,
the principle that laws should not be applied selectively or
arbitrarily and that nobody is above the law.
THE EVENTS SURROUNDING the Black Act would show that the
Glorious Revolution had created the rule of law, and that
this notion was stronger in England and Britain, and the
elites were far more constrained by it than they themselves
imagined. Notably, the rule of law is not the same as rule by
law. Even if the Whigs could pass a harsh, repressive law
to quash obstacles from common people, they had to
contend with additional constraints because of the rule of
law. Their law violated the rights that the Glorious
Revolution and the changes in political institutions that
followed from it had already established for everybody by
tearing down the “divine” rights of kings and the privileges
of elites. The rule of law then implied that both elites and
nonelites alike would resist its implementation.
The rule of law is a very strange concept when you think
about it in historical perspective. Why should laws be
applied equally to all? If the king and the aristocracy have
political power and the rest don’t, it’s only natural that
whatever is fair game for the king and the aristocracy
should be banned and punishable for the rest. Indeed, the
rule of law is not imaginable under absolutist political
institutions. It is a creation of pluralist political institutions
and of the broad coalitions that support such pluralism. It’s
only when many individuals and groups have a say in
decisions, and the political power to have a seat at the
table, that the idea that they should all be treated fairly
starts making sense. By the early eighteenth century,
Britain was becoming sufficiently pluralistic, and the Whig
elites would discover that, as enshrined in the notion of the
rule of law, laws and institutions would constrain them, too.
But why did the Whigs and parliamentarians abide by
such restraints? Why didn’t they use their control over
Parliament and the state to force an uncompromising
implementation of the Black Act and overturn the courts
when the decisions didn’t go their way? The answer reveals
much about the nature of the Glorious Revolution—why it
didn’t just replace an old absolutism with a new version—
the link between pluralism and the rule of law, and the
dynamics of virtuous circles. As we saw in chapter 7, the
Glorious Revolution was not the overthrow of one elite by
another, but a revolution against absolutism by a broad
coalition made up of the gentry, merchants, and
manufacturers as well as groupings of Whigs and Tories.
The emergence of pluralist political institutions was a
consequence of this revolution. The rule of law also
emerged as a by-product of this process. With many
parties at the table sharing power, it was natural to have
laws and constraints apply to all of them, lest one party start
amassing too much power and ultimately undermine the
very foundations of pluralism. Thus the notion that there
were limits and restraints on rulers, the essence of the rule
of law, was part of the logic of pluralism engendered by the
broad coalition that made up the opposition to Stuart
absolutism.
In this light, it should be no surprise that the principle of
the rule of law, coupled with the notion that monarchs did
not have divine rights, was in fact a key argument against
Stuart absolutism. As the British historian E. P. Thompson
put it, in the struggle against the Stuart monarchs:
immense efforts were made … to project the
image of a ruling class which was itself
subject to the rule of law, and whose
legitimacy rested upon the equity and
universality of those legal forms. And the
rulers were, in serious senses, whether
willingly or unwillingly, the prisoners of their
own rhetoric; they played games of power
according to rules which suited them, but they
could not break those rules or the whole
game would be thrown away.
Throwing the game away would destabilize the system
and open the way for absolutism by a subset of the broad
coalition or even risk the return of the Stuarts. In
Thompson’s words, what inhibited Parliament from creating
a new absolutism was that
take
away law,
and
the
royal
prerogative … might flood back upon their
properties and lives.
Moreover,
it was inherent in the very nature of the
medium which they [those aristocrats,
merchants etc. fighting the Crown] had
selected for their own self-defense that it
could not be reserved for the exclusive use
only of their own class. The law, in its forms
and traditions, entailed principles of equity
and universality which … had to be extended
to all sorts and degrees of men.
Once in place, the notion of the rule of law not only kept
absolutism at bay but also created a type of virtuous circle:
if the laws applied equally to everybody, then no individual
or group, not even Cadogan or Walpole, could rise above
the law, and common people accused of encroaching on
private property still had the right to a fair trial.
WE SAW HOW INCLUSIVE economic and political institutions
emerge. But why do they persist over time? The history of
the Black Act and the limits to its implementation illustrate
the virtuous circle, a powerful process of positive feedback
that preserves these institutions in the face of attempts at
undermining them and, in fact, sets in motion forces that
lead to greater inclusiveness. The logic of virtuous circles
stems partly from the fact that inclusive institutions are
based on constraints on the exercise of power and on a
pluralistic distribution of political power in society,
enshrined in the rule of law. The ability of a subset to
impose its will on others without any constraints, even if
those others are ordinary citizens, as Huntridge was,
threatens this very balance. If it were temporarily
suspended in the case of the peasants protesting against
elites encroaching on their communal lands, what was there
to guarantee that it would not be suspended again? And
the next time it was suspended, what would prevent the
Crown and aristocracy from taking back what the
merchants, businessmen, and the gentry had gained in the
intervening half century? In fact, the next time it was
suspended, perhaps the entire project of pluralism would
come crumbling down, because a narrow set of interests
would take control at the expense of the broad coalition.
The political system would not risk this. But this made
pluralism, and the rule of law that it implied, persistent
features of British political institutions. And we will see that
once pluralism and the rule of law were established, there
would be demand for even greater pluralism and greater
participation in the political process.
The virtuous circle arises not only from the inherent logic
of pluralism and the rule of law, but also because inclusive
political institutions tend to support inclusive economic
institutions. This then leads to a more equal distribution of
income, empowering a broad segment of society and
making the political playing field even more level. This limits
what one can achieve by usurping political power and
reduces the incentives to re-create extractive political
institutions. These factors were important in the emergence
of truly democratic political institutions in Britain.
Pluralism also creates a more open system and allows
independent media to flourish, making it easier for groups
that have an interest in the continuation of inclusive
institutions to become aware and organize against threats
to these institutions. It is highly significant that the English
state stopped censoring the media after 1688. The media
played a similarly important role in empowering the
population at large and in the continuation of the virtuous
circle of institutional development in the United States, as
we will see in this chapter.
While the virtuous circle creates a tendency for inclusive
institutions to persist, it is neither inevitable nor irreversible.
Both in Britain and the United States, inclusive economic
and political institutions were subject to many challenges. In
1745 the Young Pretender got all the way to Derby, a mere
hundred miles from London, with an army to unseat the
political institutions forged during the Glorious Revolution.
But he was defeated. More important than the challenges
from without were potential challenges from within that
might also have led to the unraveling of inclusive
institutions. As we saw in the context of the Peterloo
Massacre in Manchester in 1819 (this page), and as we will
see in more detail next, British political elites thought of
using repression to avoid having to further open the political
system, but they pulled back from the brink. Similarly,
inclusive economic and political institutions in the United
States faced serious challenges, which could have
conceivably succeeded, but didn’t. And of course it was not
preordained that these challenges should be defeated. It is
due to not only the virtuous circle but also to the realization
of the contingent path of history that British and U.S.
inclusive institutions survived and became substantially
stronger over time.
THE SLOW MARCH OF DEMOCRACY
The response to the Black Act showed ordinary British
people that they had more rights than they previously
realized. They could defend their traditional rights and
economic interests in the courts and in Parliament through
the use of petitions and lobbying. But this pluralism had not
yet delivered effective democracy. Most adult men could
not vote; neither could women; and there were many
inequities in the existing democratic structures. All this was
to change. The virtuous circle of inclusive institutions not
only preserves what has already been achieved but also
opens the door to greater inclusiveness. The odds were
against the British elite of the eighteenth century
maintaining their grip on political power without serious
challenges. This elite had come to power by challenging the
divine right of kings and opening the door to participation
by the people in politics, but then they gave this right only to
a small minority. It was only a matter of time until more and
more of the population demanded the right to participate in
the political process. And in the years leading up to 1831,
they did.
The first three decades of the nineteenth century
witnessed increasing social unrest in Britain, mostly in
response to increasing economic inequities and demands
from the disenfranchised masses for greater political
representation. The Luddite Riots of 1811–1816, where
workers fought against the introduction of new technologies
they believed would reduce their wages, were followed by
riots explicitly demanding political rights, the Spa Fields
Riots of 1816 in London and the Peterloo Massacre of
1819 in Manchester. In the Swing Riots of 1830, agricultural
workers protested against falling living standards as well as
the introduction of new technology. Meanwhile, in Paris, the
July Revolution of 1830 exploded. A consensus among
elites was starting to form that the discontent was reaching
the boiling point, and the only way to defuse social unrest,
and turn back a revolution, was by meeting the demands of
the masses and undertaking parliamentary reform.
It was no surprise then that the 1831 election was mostly
about a single issue: political reform. The Whigs, almost
one hundred years after Sir Robert Walpole, were much
more responsive to the wishes of the common man and
campaigned to extend voting rights. But this meant only a
small increase in the electorate. Universal suffrage, even
only for men, was not on the table. The Whigs won the
election, and their leader, Earl Grey, became the prime
minister. Earl Grey was no radical—far from it. He and the
Whigs pushed for reform not because they thought a
broader voting franchise was more just or because they
wanted to share power. British democracy was not given by
the elite. It was largely taken by the masses, who were
empowered by the political processes that had been
ongoing in England and the rest of Britain for the last
several centuries. They had become emboldened by the
changes in the nature of political institutions unleashed by
the Glorious Revolution. Reforms were granted because
the elite thought that reform was the only way to secure the
continuation of their rule, albeit in a somewhat lessened
form. Earl Grey, in his famous speech to Parliament in favor
of political reform, said this very clearly:
There is no-one more decided against
annual Parliaments, universal suffrage and
the ballot, than I am. My object is not to
favour, but to put an end to such hopes and
projects … The principle of my reform is, to
prevent
the
necessity
of
revolution … reforming to preserve and not to
overthrow.
The masses did not just want the vote for its own sake
but to have a seat at the table to be able to defend their
interests. This was well understood by the Chartist
movement, which led the campaign for universal suffrage
after 1838, taking its name from its adoption of the
People’s Charter, named to evoke a parallel with the
Magna Carta. Chartist J. R. Stephens articulated why
universal suffrage, and the vote for all citizens, was key for
the masses:
The question of universal suffrage … is a
knife and fork question, a bread and cheese
question … by universal suffrage I mean to
say that every working man in the land has a
right to a good coat on his back, a good hat
on his head, a good roof for the shelter of his
household, a good dinner upon his table.
Stephens had well understood that universal suffrage
was the most durable way of empowering the British
masses further and guaranteeing a coat, a hat, a roof, and
a good dinner for the working man.
Ultimately, Earl Grey was successful both in ensuring the
passage of the First Reform Act and in defusing the
revolutionary tides without taking any major strides toward
universal mass suffrage. The 1832 reforms were modest,
only doubling the voting franchise from 8 percent to about
16 percent of the adult male population (from about 2 to 4
percent of all the population). They also got rid of rotten
boroughs and gave independent representation to the new
industrializing cities such as Manchester, Leeds, and
Sheffield. But this still left many issues unresolved. Hence
there were soon further demands for greater voting rights
and further social unrest. In response, further reform would
follow.
Why did the British elites give in to the demands? Why
did Earl Grey feel that partial—indeed, very partial—reform
was the only way to preserve the system? Why did they
have to put up with the lesser of the two evils, reform or
revolution, rather than maintaining their power without any
reform? Couldn’t they just have done what the Spanish
conquistadors did in South America, what AustriaHungarian and Russian monarchs would do in the next
several decades when the demands for reform reached
those lands, and what the British themselves did in the
Caribbean and in India: use force to put down the
demands? The answer to this question comes from the
virtuous circle. The economic and political changes that
had already taken place in Britain made using force to
repress these demands both unattractive for the elite and
increasingly infeasible. As E. P. Thompson wrote:
When the struggles of 1790–1832 signalled
that this equilibrium had changed, the rulers
of England were faced with alarming
alternatives. They could either dispense with
the rule of law, dismantle their elaborate
constitutional structures, countermand their
own rhetoric and rule by force; or they could
submit to their own rules and surrender their
hegemony … they took halting steps in the
first direction. But in the end, rather than
shatter their own self-image and repudiate
150 years of constitutional legality, they
surrendered to the law.
Put differently, the same forces that made the British elite
not wish to tear down the edifice of the rule of law during the
Black Act also made them shun repression and rule by
force, which would again risk the stability of the entire
system. If undermining the law in trying to implement the
Black Act would have weakened the system that
merchants, businessmen, and the gentry had built in the
Glorious Revolution, setting up a repressive dictatorship in
1832 would have entirely undermined it. In fact, the
organizers of the protests for parliamentary reform were
well aware of the importance of the rule of law and its
symbolism to the British political institutions during this
period. They used its rhetoric to bring home this point. One
of the first organizations seeking parliamentary reform was
called the Hampden Club, after the member of Parliament
who had first resisted Charles I over the ship money tax, a
crucial event leading up to the first major uprising against
Stuart absolutism, as we saw in chapter 7.
There was also dynamic positive feedback between
inclusive economic and political institutions making such a
course of action attractive. Inclusive economic institutions
led to the development of inclusive markets, inducing a
more efficient allocation of resources, greater
encouragement to acquire education and skills, and further
innovations in technology. All of these forces were in play in
Britain by 1831. Clamping down on popular demands and
undertaking a coup against inclusive political institutions
would also destroy these gains, and the elites opposing
greater democratization and greater inclusiveness might
find themselves among those losing their fortunes from this
destruction.
Another aspect of this positive feedback is that under
inclusive economic and political institutions, controlling
power became less central. In Austria-Hungary and in
Russia, as we saw in chapter 8, the monarchs and the
aristocracy had much to lose from industrialization and
reform. In contrast, in Britain at the beginning of the
nineteenth century, thanks to the development of inclusive
economic institutions, there was much less at stake: there
were no serfs, relatively little coercion in the labor market,
and few monopolies protected by entry barriers. Clinging to
power was thus much less valuable for the British elite.
The logic of the virtuous circle also meant that such
repressive steps would be increasingly infeasible, again
because of the positive feedback between inclusive
economic and political institutions. Inclusive economic
institutions lead to a more equitable distribution of
resources than extractive institutions. As such, they
empower the citizens at large and thus create a more level
playing field, even when it comes to the fight for power. This
makes it more difficult for a small elite to crush the masses
rather than to give in to their demands, or at least to some
of them. The British inclusive institutions had also already
unleashed the Industrial Revolution, and Britain was highly
urbanized. Using repression against an urban,
concentrated, and partially organized and empowered
group of people would have been much harder than
repressing a peasantry or dependent serfs.
The virtuous circle thus brought the First Reform Act to
Britain in 1832. But this was just the beginning. There was
still a long road to travel toward real democracy, because in
1832 the elite had only offered what they thought they had
to and no more. The issue of parliamentary reform was
taken up by the Chartist movement, whose People’s
Charter of 1838 included the clauses
A vote for every man twenty-one years of age, of sound
mind, and not undergoing punishment for crime.
The ballot.—To protect the elector in the exercise of
his vote.
No property qualification for members of Parliament—
thus enabling the constituencies to return the man of
their choice, be he rich or poor.
Payment of members, thus enabling an honest
tradesman, working man, or other person, to serve a
constituency, when taken from his business to attend
to the interests of the Country.
Equal Constituencies, securing the same amount of
representation for the same number of electors,
instead of allowing small constituencies to swamp the
votes of large ones.
Annual Parliaments, thus presenting the most effectual
check to bribery and intimidation, since though a
constituency might be bought once in seven years
(even with the ballot), no purse could buy a
constituency (under a system of universal suffrage) in
each ensuing twelve-month; and since members, when
elected for a year only, would not be able to defy and
betray their constituents as now.
By the “ballot,” they meant the secret ballot and the end of
open voting, which had facilitated the buying of votes and
the coercion of voters.
The Chartist movement organized a series of mass
demonstrations, and throughout this period Parliament
continually discussed the potential for further reforms.
Though the Chartists disintegrated after 1848, they were
followed by the National Reform Union, founded in 1864,
and the Reform League, which was founded in 1865. In July
1866, major pro-reform riots in Hyde Park brought reform
right to the top of the political agenda once more. This
pressure bore dividends in the form of the Second Reform
Act of 1867, in which the total electorate was doubled and
working-class voters became the majority in all urban
constituencies. Shortly afterward the secret ballot was
introduced and moves were made to eliminate corrupt
electoral practices such as “treating” (essentially buying
votes in exchange for which the voter received a treat,
usually money, food, or alcohol). The electorate was
doubled again by the Third Reform Act of 1884, when 60
percent of adult males were enfranchised. Following the
First World War, the Representation of the People Act of
1918 gave the vote to all adult males over the age of
twenty-one, and to women over the age of thirty who were
taxpayers or married to taxpayers. Ultimately, all women
also received the vote on the same terms as men in 1928.
The measures of 1918 were negotiated during the war and
reflected a quid pro quo between the government and the
working classes, who were needed to fight and produce
munitions. The government may also have taken note of the
radicalism of the Russian Revolution.
Parallel with the gradual development of more inclusive
political institutions was a movement toward even more
inclusive economic institutions. One major consequence of
the First Reform Act was the repeal of the Corn Laws in
1846. As we saw in chapter 7, the Corn Laws banned the
import of grains and cereals, keeping their prices high and
ensuring lucrative profits for large landowners. The new
parliamentarians from Manchester and Birmingham wanted
cheap corn and low wages. They won, and the landed
interests suffered a major defeat.
The changes in the electorate and other dimensions of
political institutions taking place during the course of the
nineteenth century were followed by further reforms. In 1871
the Liberal prime minister Gladstone opened up the civil
service to public examination, making it meritocratic, and
thus continuing the process of political centralization and
the building of state institutions that started during the Tudor
period. Liberal and Tory governments during this period
introduced a considerable amount of labor market
legislation. For example, the Masters and Servants Acts,
which allowed employers to use the law to reduce the
mobility of their workers, was repealed, changing the nature
of labor relations in favor of workers. During 1906–1914,
the Liberal Party, under the leadership of H. H. Asquith and
David Lloyd George, began to use the state to provide far
more public services, including health and unemployment
insurance,
government-financed pensions, minimum
wages, and a commitment to redistributive taxation. As a
result of these fiscal changes, taxes as a proportion of
national product more than doubled in the last three
decades of the nineteenth century, and then doubled again
in the first three decades of the twentieth. The tax system
also became more “progressive,” so that wealthier people
bore a heavier burden.
Meanwhile, the education system, which was previously
either primarily for the elite, run by religious denominations,
or required poor people to pay fees, was made more
accessible to the masses; the Education Act of 1870
committed the government to the systematic provision of
universal education for the first time. Education became
free of charge in 1891. The school-leaving age was set at
eleven in 1893. In 1899 it was increased to twelve, and
special provisions for the children of needy families were
introduced. As a result of these changes, the proportion of
ten-year-olds enrolled in school, which stood at a
disappointing 40 percent in 1870, increased to 100
percent in 1900. Finally, the Education Act of 1902 led to a
large expansion in resources for schools and introduced
the grammar schools, which subsequently became the
foundation of secondary education in Britain.
In fact, the British example, an illustration of the virtuous
circle of inclusive institutions, provides an example of a
“gradual virtuous circle.” The political changes were
unmistakably toward more inclusive political institutions and
were the result of demands from empowered masses. But
they were also gradual. Every decade another step,
sometimes smaller, sometimes larger, was taken toward
democracy. There was conflict over each step, and the
outcome of each was contingent. But the virtuous circle
created forces that reduced the stakes involved in clinging
to power. It also spurred the rule of law, making it harder to
use force against those who were demanding what these
elites had themselves demanded from Stuart monarchs. It
became less likely that this conflict would turn into an all-out
revolution and more likely that it would be resolved in favor
of greater inclusiveness. There is great virtue in this sort of
gradual change. It is less threatening to the elite than the
wholesale overthrow of the system. Each step is small, and
it makes sense to give in to a small demand rather than
create a major showdown. This partly explains how the
Corn Law was repealed without more serious conflict. By
1846 landowners could no longer control legislation in
Parliament. This was an outcome of the First Reform Act.
However, if in 1832 the expansion of the electorate, the
reform of the rotten boroughs, and the repeal of the Corn
Laws had all been on the table, landowners would have put
up much more resistance. The fact that there were first
limited political reforms and that repeal of the Corn Laws
came on the agenda only later defused conflict.
Gradual change also prevented ventures into uncharted
territories. A violent overthrow of the system means that
something entirely new has to be built in place of what has
been removed. This was the case with the French
Revolution, when the first experiment with democracy led to
the Terror and then back to a monarchy twice before finally
leading to the French Third Republic in 1870. It was the
case in the Russian Revolution, where the desires of many
for a more equal system than that of the Russian Empire
led to a one-party dictatorship that was much more violent,
bloody, and vicious than what it had replaced. Gradual
reform was difficult in these societies precisely because
they lacked pluralism and were highly extractive. It was the
pluralism emerging from the Glorious Revolution, and the
rule of law that it introduced, that made gradual change
feasible, and desirable, in Britain.
The conservative English commentator Edmund Burke,
who steadfastly opposed the French Revolution, wrote in
1790, “It is with infinite caution that any man should venture
upon pulling down an edifice, which has answered in any
tolerable degree for ages the common purposes of society,
or on building it up again without having models and
patterns of approved utility before his eyes.” Burke was
wrong on the big picture. The French Revolution had
replaced a rotten edifice and opened the way for inclusive
institutions not only in France, but throughout much of
Western Europe. But Burke’s caution was not entirely off
the mark. The gradual process of British political reform,
which had started in 1688 and would pick up pace three
decades after Burke’s death, would be more effective
because its gradual nature made it more powerful, harder
to resist, and ultimately more durable.
BUSTING TRUSTS
Inclusive institutions in the United States had their roots in
the struggles in Virginia, Maryland, and the Carolinas
during the colonial period (this page–this page). These
institutions were reinforced by the Constitution of the United
States, with its system of constraints and its separation of
powers. But the Constitution did not mark the end of the
development of inclusive institutions. Just as in Britain,
these were strengthened by a process of positive
feedback, based on the virtuous circle.
By the middle of the nineteenth century, all white males,
though not women or blacks, could vote in the United
States. Economic institutions became more inclusive—for
example, with the passage of the Homestead Act in 1862
(this page), which made frontier land available to potential
settlers rather than allocating these lands to political elites.
But just as in Britain, challenges to inclusive institutions
were never entirely absent. The end of the U.S. Civil War
initiated a rapid spurt of economic growth in the North. As
railways, industry, and commerce expanded, a few people
made vast fortunes. Emboldened by their economic
success, these men and their companies became
increasingly unscrupulous. They were called the Robber
Barons because of their hard-nosed business practices
aimed at consolidating monopolies and preventing any
potential competitor from entering the market or doing
business on an equal footing. One of the most notorious of
these was Cornelius Vanderbilt, who famously remarked,
“What do I care about the Law? Hain’t I got the power?”
Another was John D. Rockefeller, who started the
Standard Oil Company in 1870. He quickly eliminated
rivals in Cleveland and attempted to monopolize the
transportation and retailing of oil and oil products. By 1882
he had created a massive monopoly—in the language of
the day, a trust. By 1890 Standard Oil controlled 88 percent
of the refined oil flows in the United States, and Rockefeller
became the world’s first billionaire in 1916. Contemporary
cartoons depict Standard Oil as an octopus wrapping itself
around not just the oil industry but also Capitol Hill.
Almost as infamous was John Pierpont Morgan, the
founder of the modern banking conglomerate J.P. Morgan,
which later, after many mergers over decades, eventually
became JPMorgan Chase. Along with Andrew Carnegie,
Morgan founded the U.S. Steel Company in 1901, the first
corporation with a capitalized value of more than $1 billion
and by far the largest steel corporation in the world. In the
1890s, large trusts began to emerge in nearly every sector
of the economy, and many of them controlled more than 70
percent of the market in their sector. These included
several household names, such as Du Pont, Eastman
Kodak, and International Harvester. Historically the United
States, at least the northern and midwestern United States,
had relatively competitive markets and had been more
egalitarian than other parts of the country, particularly the
South. But during this period, competition gave way to
monopoly, and wealth inequality rapidly increased.
The pluralistic U.S. political system already empowered
a broad segment of society that could stand up against
such encroachments. Those who were the victims of the
monopolistic practices of the Robber Barons, or who
objected to their unscrupulous domination of their
industries, began to organize against them. They formed
the Populist and then subsequently the Progressive
movements.
The Populist movement emerged out of a long-running
agrarian crisis, which afflicted the Midwest from the late
1860s onward. The National Grange of the Order of
Patrons of Husbandry, known as the Grangers, was
founded in 1867 and began to mobilize farmers against
unfair and discriminatory business practices. In 1873 and
1874, the Grangers won control of eleven midwestern state
legislatures, and rural discontent culminated in the
formation of the People’s Party in 1892, which got 8.5
percent of the popular vote in the 1892 presidential
election. In the next two elections, the Populists fell in
behind the two unsuccessful Democratic campaigns by
William Jennings Bryan, who made many of their issues his
own. Grass-roots opposition to the spread of the trusts had
now organized to try to counteract the influence that
Rockefeller and other Robber Barons were exerting over
national politics.
These political movements slowly began to have an
impact on political attitudes and then on legislation,
particularly concerning the role of the state in the regulation
of monopoly. The first important piece of legislation was the
Interstate Commerce Act of 1887, which created the
Interstate Commerce Commission and initiated the
development of the federal regulation of industry. This was
quickly followed by the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. The
Sherman Act, which is still a major part of U.S. antitrust
regulation, would become the basis for attacks on the
Robber Barons’ trusts. Major action against the trusts came
after the election of presidents committed to reform and to
limiting the power of the Robber Barons: Theodore
Roosevelt, 1901–1909; William Taft, 1909–1913; and
Woodrow Wilson, 1913–1921.
A key political force behind antitrust and the move to
impose federal regulation of industry was again the farm
vote. Early attempts by individual states in the 1870s to
regulate railroads came from farmers’ organizations.
Indeed, nearly all the fifty-nine petitions that concerned
trusts sent to Congress prior to the enactment of the
Sherman Act came from farming states and emanated
from organizations such as the Farmers’ Union, Farmers’
Alliance, Farmers’ Mutual Benefit Association, and Patrons
of Animal Husbandry. Farmers found a collective interest in
opposing the monopolistic practices of industry.
From the ashes of the Populists, who seriously declined
after throwing their weight behind the Democrats, came the
Progressives, a heterogeneous reform movement
concerned with many of the same issues. The Progressive
movement initially gelled around the figure of Teddy
Roosevelt, who was William McKinley’s vice president and
who assumed the presidency following McKinley’s
assassination in 1901. Prior to his rise to national office,
Roosevelt had been an uncompromising governor of New
York and had worked hard to eliminate political corruption
and “machine politics.” In his first address to Congress,
Roosevelt turned his attention to the trusts. He argued that
the prosperity of the United States was based on market
economy and the ingenuity of businessmen, but at the
same time,
there are real and grave evils … and
a … widespread conviction in the minds of
the American people that the great
corporations known as trusts are in certain of
their features and tendencies hurtful to the
general welfare. This springs from no spirit of
envy or un-charitableness, nor lack of pride in
the great industrial achievements that have
placed this country at the head of the nations
struggling for commercial supremacy. It does
not rest upon a lack of intelligent appreciation
of the necessity of meeting changing and
changed conditions of trade with new
methods, nor upon ignorance of the fact that
combination of capital in the effort to
accomplish great things is necessary when
the world’s progress demands that great
things be done. It is based upon sincere
conviction
that
combination
and
concentration should be, not prohibited, but
supervised and within reasonable limits
controlled; and in my judgment this conviction
is right.
He continued: “It should be as much the aim of those who
seek for social betterment to rid the business world of
crimes of cunning as to rid the entire body politic of crimes
of violence.” His conclusion was that
in the interest of the whole people, the nation
should, without interfering with the power of
the states in the matter itself, also assume
power of supervision and regulation over all
corporations doing an interstate business.
This is especially true where the corporation
derives a portion of its wealth from the
existence of some monopolistic element or
tendency in its business.
Roosevelt proposed that Congress establish a federal
agency with power to investigate the affairs of the great
corporations and that, if necessary, a constitutional
amendment could be used to create such an agency. By
1902 Roosevelt had used the Sherman Act to break up the
Northern Securities Company, affecting the interests of J.P.
Morgan, and subsequent suits had been brought against
Du Pont, the American Tobacco Company, and the
Standard Oil Company. Roosevelt strengthened the
Interstate Commerce Act with the Hepburn Act of 1906,
which increased the powers of the Interstate Commerce
Commission, particularly allowing it to inspect the financial
accounts of railways and extending its authority into new
spheres. Roosevelt’s successor, William Taft, prosecuted
trusts even more assiduously, the high point of this being
the breakup of the Standard Oil Company in 1911. Taft
also promoted other important reforms, such as the
introduction of a federal income tax, which came with the
ratification of the Sixteenth Amendment in 1913.
The apogee of Progressive reforms came with the
election of Woodrow Wilson in 1912. Wilson noted in his
1913 book, The New Freedom, “If monopoly persists,
monopoly will always sit at the helm of government. I do not
expect to see monopoly restrain itself. If there are men in
this country big enough to own the government of the United
States, they are going to own it.”
Wilson worked to pass the Clayton Antitrust Act in 1914,
strengthening the Sherman Act, and he created the Federal
Trade Commission, which enforced the Clayton Act. In
addition, under the impetus of the investigation of the Pujo
Committee, led by Louisiana congressman Arsene Pujo,
into the “money trust,” the spread of monopoly into the
financial industry, Wilson moved to increase regulation of
the financial sector. In 1913 he created the Federal
Reserve Board, which would regulate monopolistic
activities in the financial sector.
The rise of Robber Barons and their monopoly trusts in
the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries
underscores that, as we already emphasized in chapter 3,
the presence of markets is not by itself a guarantee of
inclusive institutions. Markets can be dominated by a few
firms, charging exorbitant prices and blocking the entry of
more efficient rivals and new technologies. Markets, left to
their own devices, can cease to be inclusive, becoming
increasingly dominated by the economically and politically
powerful. Inclusive economic institutions require not just
markets, but inclusive markets that create a level playing
field and economic opportunities for the majority of the
people. Widespread monopoly, backed by the political
power of the elite, contradicts this. But the reaction to the
monopoly trusts also illustrates that when political
institutions are inclusive, they create a countervailing force
against movements away from inclusive markets. This is
the virtuous circle in action. Inclusive economic institutions
provide foundations upon which inclusive political
institutions can flourish, while inclusive political institutions
restrict deviations away from inclusive economic
institutions. Trust busting in the United States, in contrast to
what we have seen in Mexico (this page–this page),
illustrates this facet of the virtuous circle. While there is no
political body in Mexico restricting Carlos Slim’s monopoly,
the Sherman and Clayton Acts have been used repeatedly
in the United States over the past century to restrict trusts,
monopolies, and cartels, and to ensure that markets remain
inclusive.
The U.S. experience in the first half of the twentieth
century also emphasizes the important role of free media in
empowering broad segments of society and thus in the
virtuous circle. In 1906 Roosevelt coined the term
muckraker, based on a literary character, the man with the
muckrake in Bunyan’s Pilgrim’s Progress, to describe what
he regarded as intrusive journalism. The term stuck and
came to symbolize journalists who were intrusively, but also
effectively, exposing the excesses of Robber Barons as
well as corruption in local and federal politics. Perhaps the
most famous muckraker was Ida Tarbell, whose 1904
book, History of the Standard Oil Company, played a key
role in moving public opinion against Rockefeller and his
business interests, culminating in the breakup of Standard
Oil in 1911. Another key muckraker was lawyer and author
Louis Brandeis, who would later be named Supreme Court
justice by President Wilson. Brandeis outlined a series of
financial scandals in his book Other People’s Money and
How Bankers Use It, and was highly influential on the Pujo
Committee. The newspaper magnate William Randolph
Hearst also played a salient role as muckraker. His
serialization in his magazine The Cosmopolitan in 1906 of
articles by David Graham Phillips, called “The Treason of
the Senate,” galvanized the campaign to introduce direct
elections for the Senate, another key Progressive reform
that happened with the enactment of the Seventeenth
Amendment to the U.S. constitution in 1913.
The muckrakers played a major role in inducing
politicians to take action against the trusts. The Robber
Barons hated the muckrakers, but the political institutions of
the United States made it impossible for them to stamp out
and silence them. Inclusive political institutions allow a free
media to flourish, and a free media, in turn, makes it more
likely that threats against inclusive economic and political
institutions will be widely known and resisted. In contrast,
such freedom is impossible under extractive political
institutions, under absolutism, or under dictatorships, which
helps extractive regimes to prevent serious opposition from
forming in the first place. The information that the free
media provided was clearly key during the first half of the
twentieth century in the United States. Without this
information, the U.S. public would not have known the true
extent of the power and abuses of the Robber Barons and
would not have mobilized against their trusts.
PACKING THE COURT
Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Democratic Party candidate and
cousin of Teddy Roosevelt, was elected president in 1932
in the midst of the Great Depression. He came to power
with a popular mandate to implement an ambitious set of
policies for combating the Great Depression. At the time of
his inauguration in early 1933, one-quarter of the labor
force was unemployed, with many thrown into poverty.
Industrial production had fallen by over half since the
Depression hit in 1929, and investment had collapsed. The
policies Roosevelt proposed to counteract this situation
were collectively known as the New Deal. Roosevelt had
won a solid victory, with 57 percent of the popular vote, and
the Democratic Party had majorities in both the Congress
and Senate, enough to pass New Deal legislation.
However, some of the legislation raised constitutional
issues and ended up in the Supreme Court, where
Roosevelt’s electoral mandate cut much less ice.
One of the key pillars of the New Deal was the National
Industrial Recovery Act. Title I focused on industrial
recovery. President Roosevelt and his team believed that
restraining industrial competition, giving workers greater
rights to form trade unions, and regulating working
standards were crucial to the recovery effort. Title II
established the Public Works Administration, whose
infrastructure projects include such landmarks as the
Thirtieth Street railroad station in Philadelphia, the
Triborough Bridge, the Grand Coulee Dam, and the
Overseas Highway connecting Key West, Florida, with the
mainland. President Roosevelt signed the bill into law on
June 16, 1933, and the National Industrial Recovery Act
was put into operation. However, it immediately faced
challenges in the courts. On May 27, 1935, the Supreme
Court unanimously ruled that Title I of the act was
unconstitutional.
Their
verdict
noted
solemnly,
“Extraordinary conditions may call for extraordinary
remedies. But … extraordinary conditions do not create or
enlarge constitutional power.”
Before the Court’s ruling came in, Roosevelt had moved
to the next step of his agenda and had signed the Social
Security Act, which introduced the modern welfare state
into the United States: pensions at retirement,
unemployment benefits, aid to families with dependent
children, and some public health care and disability
benefits. He also signed the National Labor Relations Act,
which further strengthened the rights of workers to organize
unions, engage in collective bargaining, and conduct
strikes against their employers. These measures also
faced challenges in the Supreme Court. As these were
making their way through the judiciary, Roosevelt was
reelected in 1936 with a strong mandate, receiving 61
percent of the popular vote.
With his popularity at record highs, Roosevelt had no
intention of letting the Supreme Court derail more of his
policy agenda. He laid out his plans in one of his regular
Fireside Chats, which was broadcast live on the radio on
March 9, 1937. He started by pointing out that in his first
term, much-needed policies had only cleared the Supreme
Court by a whisker. He went on:
I am reminded of that evening in March, four
years ago, when I made my first radio report
to you. We were then in the midst of the great
banking crisis. Soon after, with the authority
of the Congress, we asked the nation to turn
over all of its privately held gold, dollar for
dollar, to the government of the United
States. Today’s recovery proves how right
that policy was. But when, almost two years
later, it came before the Supreme Court its
constitutionality was upheld only by a five-tofour vote. The change of one vote would have
thrown all the affairs of this great nation back
into hopeless chaos. In effect, four justices
ruled that the right under a private contract to
exact a pound of flesh was more sacred than
the main objectives of the Constitution to
establish an enduring nation.
Obviously, this should not be risked again. Roosevelt
continued:
Last Thursday I described the American form
of government as a three-horse team
provided by the Constitution to the American
people so that their field might be plowed.
The three horses are, of course, the three
branches of government—the Congress, the
executive, and the courts. Two of the horses,
the Congress and the executive, are pulling in
unison today; the third is not.
Roosevelt then pointed out that the U.S. Constitution had
not actually endowed the Supreme Court with the right to
challenge the constitutionality of legislation, but that it had
assumed this role in 1803. At the time, Justice Bushrod
Washington had stipulated that the Supreme Court should
“presume in favor of [a law’s] validity until its violation of the
Constitution is proved beyond all reasonable doubt.”
Roosevelt then charged:
In the last four years the sound rule of giving
statutes the benefit of all reasonable doubt
has been cast aside. The Court has been
acting not as a judicial body, but as a
policymaking body.
Roosevelt claimed that he had an electoral mandate to
change this situation and that “after consideration of what
reform to propose the only method which was clearly
constitutional … was to infuse new blood into all our courts.”
He also argued that the Supreme Court judges were
overworked, and the load was just too much for the older
justices—who happened to be the ones striking down his
legislation. He then proposed that all judges should face
compulsory retirement at the age of seventy and that he
should be allowed to appoint up to six new justices. This
plan, which Roosevelt presented as the Judiciary
Reorganization Bill, would have sufficed to remove the
justices who had been appointed earlier by more
conservative administrations and who had most strenuously
opposed the New Deal.
Though Roosevelt skillfully tried to win popular support for
the measure, opinion polls suggested that only about 40
percent of the population was in favor of the plan. Louis
Brandeis was now a Supreme Court justice. Though
Brandeis sympathized with much of Roosevelt’s legislation,
he spoke against the president’s attempts to erode the
power of the Supreme Court and his allegations that the
justices were overworked. Roosevelt’s Democratic Party
had large majorities in both houses of Congress. But the
House of Representatives more or less refused to deal with
Roosevelt’s bill. Roosevelt then tried the Senate. The bill
was sent to the Senate Judiciary Committee, which then
held highly contentious meetings, soliciting various
opinions on the bill. They ultimately sent it back to the
Senate floor with a negative report, arguing that the bill was
a “needless, futile and utterly dangerous abandonment of
constitutional principle … without precedent or justification.”
The Senate voted 70 to 20 to send it back to committee to
be rewritten. All the “court packing” elements were stripped
away. Roosevelt would be unable to remove the constraints
placed on his power by the Supreme Court. Even though
Roosevelt’s powers remained constrained, there were
compromises, and the Social Security and the National
Labor Relations Acts were both ruled constitutional by the
Court.
More important than the fate of these two acts was the
general lesson from this episode. Inclusive political
institutions not only check major deviations from inclusive
economic institutions, but they also resist attempts to
undermine their own continuation. It was in the immediate
interests of the Democratic Congress and Senate to pack
the court and ensure that all New Deal legislation survived.
But in the same way that British political elites in the early
eighteenth century understood that suspending the rule of
law would endanger the gains they had wrested from the
monarchy, congressmen and senators understood that if
the president could undermine the independence of the
judiciary, then this would undermine the balance of power in
the system that protected them from the president and
ensured the continuity of pluralistic political institutions.
Perhaps Roosevelt would have decided next that
obtaining legislative majorities took too much compromise
and time and that he would instead rule by decree, totally
undermining pluralism and the U.S. political system.
Congress certainly would not have approved this, but then
Roosevelt could have appealed to the nation, asserting that
Congress was impeding the necessary measures to fight
the Depression. He could have used the police to close
Congress. Sound farfetched? This is exactly what
happened in Peru and Venezuela in the 1990s. Presidents
Fujimori and Chávez appealed to their popular mandate to
close uncooperative congresses and subsequently rewrote
their constitutions to massively strengthen the powers of the
president. The fear of this slippery slope by those sharing
power under pluralistic political institutions is exactly what
stopped Walpole from fixing British courts in the 1720s,
and it is what stopped the U.S. Congress from backing
Roosevelt’s court-packing plan. Roosevelt had
encountered the power of virtuous circles.
But this logic does not always play out, particularly in
societies that may have some inclusive features but that
are broadly extractive. We have already seen these
dynamics in Rome and Venice. Another illustration comes
from comparing Roosevelt’s failed attempt to pack the
Court with similar efforts in Argentina, where crucially the
same struggles took place in the context of predominantly
extractive economic and political institutions.
The 1853 constitution of Argentina created a Supreme
Court with duties similar to those of the U.S. Supreme
Court. An 1887 decision allowed the Argentine court to
assume the same role as that of the U.S. Supreme Court in
deciding whether specific laws were constitutional. In
theory, the Supreme Court could have developed as one of
the important elements of inclusive political institutions in
Argentina, but the rest of the political and economic system
remained highly extractive, and there was neither
empowerment of broad segments of society nor pluralism
in Argentina. As in the United States, the constitutional role
of the Supreme Court would also be challenged in
Argentina. In 1946 Juan Domingo Perón was
democratically elected president of Argentina. Perón was a
former colonel and had first come to national prominence
after a military coup in 1943, which had appointed him
minister of labor. In this post, he built a political coalition
with trade unions and the labor movement, which would be
crucial for his presidential bid.
Shortly after Perón’s victory, his supporters in the
Chamber of Deputies proposed the impeachment of four of
the five members of the Court. The charges leveled against
the Court were several. One involved unconstitutionally
accepting the legality of two military regimes in 1930 and
1943—rather ironic, since Perón had played a key role in
the latter coup. The other focused on legislation that the
court had struck down, just as its U.S. counterpart had
done. In particular, just prior to Perón’s election as
president, the Court had issued a decision ruling that
Perón’s new national labor relations board was
unconstitutional. Just as Roosevelt heavily criticized the
Supreme Court in his 1936 reelection campaign, Perón did
the same in his 1946 campaign. Nine months after initiating
the impeachment process, the Chamber of Deputies
impeached three of the judges, the fourth having already
resigned. The Senate approved the motion. Perón then
appointed four new justices. The undermining of the Court
clearly had the effect of freeing Perón from political
constraints. He could now exercise unchecked power, in
much the same way the military regimes in Argentina did
before and after his presidency. His newly appointed
judges, for example, ruled as constitutional the conviction of
Ricardo Balbín, the leader of the main opposition party to
Perón, the Radical Party, for disrespecting Perón. Perón
could effectively rule as a dictator.
Since Perón successfully packed the Court, it has
become the norm in Argentina for any new president to
handpick his own Supreme Court justices. So a political
institution that might have exercised some constraints on
the power of the executive is gone. Perón’s regime was
removed from power by another coup in 1955, and was
followed by a long sequence of transitions between military
and civilian rule. Both new military and civilian regimes
picked their own justices. But picking Supreme Court
justices in Argentina was not an activity confined to
transitions between military and civilian rule. In 1990
Argentina finally experienced a transition between
democratically elected governments—one democratic
government followed by another. Yet, by this time
democratic governments did not behave much differently
from military ones when it came to the Supreme Court. The
incoming president was Carlos Saúl Menem of the
Perónist Party. The sitting Supreme Court had been
appointed after the transition to democracy in 1983 by the
Radical Party president Raúl Alfonsín. Since this was a
democratic transition, there should have been no reason for
Menem to appoint his own court. But in the run-up to the
election, Menem had already shown his colors. He
continually, though not successfully, tried to encourage (or
even intimidate) members of the court to resign. He
famously offered Justice Carlos Fayt an ambassadorship.
But he was rebuked, and Fayt responded by sending him a
copy of his book Law and Ethics, with the note “Beware I
wrote this” inscribed. Undeterred, within three months of
taking office, Menem sent a law to the Chamber of
Deputies proposing to expand the Court from five to nine
members. One argument was the same Roosevelt used in
1937: the court was overworked. The law quickly passed
the Senate and Chamber, and this allowed Menem to
name four new judges. He had his majority.
Menem’s victory against the Supreme Court set in
motion the type of slippery-slope dynamics we mentioned
earlier. His next step was to rewrite the constitution to
remove the term limit so he could run for president again.
After being reelected, Menem moved to rewrite the
constitution again, but was stopped not by Argentina
political institutions but by factions within his own Perónist
Party, who fought back against his personal domination.
Since independence, Argentina has suffered from most
of the institutional problems that have plagued Latin
America. It has been trapped in a vicious, not a virtuous,
circle. As a consequence, positive developments, such as
first steps toward the creation of an independent Supreme
Court, never gained a foothold. With pluralism, no group
wants or dares to overthrow the power of another, for fear
that its own power will be subsequently challenged. At the
same time, the broad distribution of power makes such an
overthrow difficult. A Supreme Court can have power if it
receives significant support from broad segments of
society willing to push back attempts to vitiate the Court’s
independence. That has been the case in the United
States, but not Argentina. Legislators there were happy to
undermine the Court even if they anticipated that this could
jeopardize their own position. One reason is that with
extractive institutions there is much to gain from
overthrowing the Supreme Court, and the potential benefits
are worth the risks.
POSITIVE FEEDBACK AND VIRTUOUS CIRCLES
Inclusive economic and political institutions do not emerge
by themselves. They are often the outcome of significant
conflict between elites resisting economic growth and
political change and those wishing to limit the economic
and political power of existing elites. Inclusive institutions
emerge during critical junctures, such as during the
Glorious Revolution in England or the foundation of the
Jamestown colony in North America, when a series of
factors weaken the hold of the elites in power, make their
opponents stronger, and create incentives for the formation
of a pluralistic society. The outcome of political conflict is
never certain, and even if in hindsight we see many
historical events as inevitable, the path of history is
contingent. Nevertheless, once in place, inclusive economic
and political institutions tend to create a virtuous circle, a
process of positive feedback, making it more likely that
these institutions will persist and even expand.
The virtuous circle works through several mechanisms.
First, the logic of pluralistic political institutions makes
usurpation of power by a dictator, a faction within the
government, or even a well-meaning president much more
difficult, as Franklin Roosevelt discovered when he tried to
remove the checks on his power imposed by the Supreme
Court, and as Sir Robert Walpole discovered when he
attempted to summarily implement the Black Act. In both
cases, concentrating power further in the hands of an
individual or a narrow group would have started
undermining the foundations of pluralistic political
institutions, and the true measure of pluralism is precisely
its ability to resist such attempts. Pluralism also enshrines
the notion of the rule of law, the principle that laws should
be applied equally to everybody—something that is
naturally impossible under an absolutist monarchy. But the
rule of law, in turn, implies that laws cannot simply be used
by one group to encroach upon the rights of another.
What’s more, the principle of the rule of law opens the door
for greater participation in the political process and greater
inclusivity, as it powerfully introduces the idea that people
should be equal not only before the law but also in the
political system. This was one of the principles that made it
difficult for the British political system to resist the forceful
calls for greater democracy throughout the nineteenth
century, opening the way to the gradual extension of the
franchise to all adults.
Second, as we have seen several times before, inclusive
political institutions support and are supported by inclusive
economic institutions. This creates another mechanism of
the virtuous circle. Inclusive economic institutions remove
the most egregious extractive economic relations, such as
slavery and serfdom, reduce the importance of monopolies,
and create a dynamic economy, all of which reduces the
economic benefits that one can secure, at least in the short
run, by usurping political power. Because economic
institutions had already become sufficiently inclusive in
Britain by the eighteenth century, the elite had less to gain
by clinging to power and, in fact, much to lose by using
widespread repression against those demanding greater
democracy. This facet of the virtuous circle made the
gradual march of democracy in nineteenth-century Britain
both less threatening to the elite and more likely to
succeed. This contrasts with the situation in absolutist
regimes such as the Austro-Hungarian or Russian empires,
where economic institutions were still highly extractive and,
in consequence, where calls for greater political inclusion
later in the nineteenth century would be met by repression
because the elite had too much to lose from sharing power.
Finally, inclusive political institutions allow a free media
to flourish, and a free media often provides information
about and mobilizes opposition to threats against inclusive
institutions, as it did during the last quarter of the nineteenth
century and first quarter of the twentieth century, when the
increasing economic domination of the Robber Barons
was threatening the essence of inclusive economic
institutions in the United States.
Though the outcome of the ever-present conflicts
continues to be contingent, through these mechanisms the
virtuous circle creates a powerful tendency for inclusive
institutions to persist, to resist challenges, and to expand
as they did in both Britain and the United States.
Unfortunately, as we will see in the next chapter, extractive
institutions create equally strong forces toward their
persistence—the process of the vicious circle.
12.
THE VICIOUS CIRCLE
YOU CAN’T TAKE THE TRAIN TO BO ANYMORE
ALL OF THE WEST A FRICAN nation of Sierra Leone became
a British colony in 1896. The capital city, Freetown, had
originally been founded in the late eighteenth century as a
home for repatriated and freed slaves. But when Freetown
became a British colony, the interior of Sierra Leone was
still made up of many small African kingdoms. Gradually, in
the second half of the nineteenth century, the British
extended their rule into the interior through a long series of
treaties with African rulers. On August 31, 1896, the British
government declared the colony a protectorate on the basis
of these treaties. The British identified important rulers and
gave them a new title, paramount chief. In eastern Sierra
Leone, for example, in the modern diamond-mining district
of Kono, they encountered Suluku, a powerful warrior king.
King Suluku was made Paramount Chief Suluku, and the
chieftaincy of Sandor was created as an administrative unit
in the protectorate.
Though kings such as Suluku had signed treaties with a
British administrator, they had not understood that these
treaties would be interpreted as carte blanche to set up a
colony. When the British tried to levy a hut tax—a tax of five
shillings to be raised from every house—in January 1898,
the chiefs rose up in a civil war that became known as the
Hut Tax Rebellion. It started in the north, but was strongest
and lasted longer in the south, particularly in Mendeland,
dominated by the Mende ethnic group. The Hut Tax
Rebellion was soon defeated, but it warned the British
about the challenges of controlling the Sierra Leonean
hinterland. The British had already started to build a railway
from Freetown into the interior. Work began in March 1896,
and the line reached Songo Town in December 1898, in
the midst of the Hut Tax Rebellion. British parliamentary
papers from 1904 recorded that:
In the case of the Sierra Leone Railways the
Native Insurrection that broke out in February
1898 had the effect of completely stopping
the works and disorganizing the staff for
some time. The rebels descended upon the
railway, with the result that the entire staff had
to be withdrawn to Freetown … Rotifunk, now
situated upon the railways at 55 miles from
Freetown, was at that time completely in the
hands of the rebels.
In fact, Rotifunk was not on the planned railway line in
1894. The route was changed after the start of the rebellion,
so that instead of going to the northeast, it went south, via
Rotifunk and on to Bo, into Mendeland. The British wanted
quick access to Mendeland, the heart of the rebellion, and
to other potentially disruptive parts of the hinterland if other
rebellions were to flare up.
When Sierra Leone became independent in 1961, the
British handed power to Sir Milton Margai and his Sierra
Leone People’s Party (SLPP), which attracted support
primarily in the south, particularly Mendeland, and the east.
Sir Milton was followed as prime minister by his brother, Sir
Albert Margai, in 1964. In 1967 the SLPP narrowly lost a
hotly contested election to the opposition, the All People’s
Congress Party (APC), led by Siaka Stevens. Stevens was
a Limba, from the north, and the APC got most of their
support from northern ethnic groups, the Limba, the Temne,
and the Loko.
Though the railway to the south was initially designed by
the British to rule Sierra Leone, by 1967 its role was
economic, transporting most of the country’s exports:
coffee, cocoa, and diamonds. The farmers who grew
coffee and cocoa were Mende, and the railway was
Mendeland’s window to the world. Mendeland had voted
hugely for Albert Margai in the 1967 election. Stevens was
much more interested in holding on to power than
promoting Mendeland’s exports. His reasoning was simple:
whatever was good for the Mende was good for the SLPP,
and bad for Stevens. So he pulled up the railway line to
Mendeland. He then went ahead and sold off the track and
rolling stock to make the change as irreversible as
possible. Now, as you drive out of Freetown to the east, you
pass the dilapidated railway stations of Hastings and
Waterloo. There are no more trains to Bo. Of course,
Stevens’s drastic action fatally damaged some of the most
vibrant sectors of Sierra Leone’s economy. But like many
of Africa’s postindependence leaders, when the choice
was between consolidating power and encouraging
economic growth, Stevens chose consolidating his power,
and he never looked back. Today you can’t take the train to
Bo anymore, because like Tsar Nicholas I, who feared that
the railways would bring revolution to Russia, Stevens
believed the railways would strengthen his opponents. Like
so many other rulers in control of extractive institutions, he
was afraid of challenges to his political power and was
willing to sacrifice economic growth to thwart those
challenges.
Stevens’s strategy at first glance contrasts with that of the
British. But in fact, there was a significant amount of
continuity between British rule and Stevens’s regime that
illustrates the logic of vicious circles. Stevens ruled Sierra
Leone by extracting resources from its people using similar
methods. He was still in power in 1985 not because he had
been popularly reelected, but because after 1967 he set up
a violent dictatorship, killing and harassing his political
opponents, particularly the members of the SLPP. He
made himself president in 1971, and after 1978, Sierra
Leone had only one political party, Stevens’s APC. Stevens
thus successfully consolidated his power, even if the cost
was impoverishing much of the hinterland.
During the colonial period, the British used a system of
indirect rule to govern Sierra Leone, as they did with most
of their African colonies. At the base of this system were
the paramount chiefs, who collected taxes, distributed
justice, and kept order. The British dealt with the cocoa and
coffee farmers not by isolating them, but by forcing them to
sell all their produce to a marketing board developed by the
colonial office purportedly to help the farmers. Prices for
agricultural commodities fluctuated wildly over time. Cocoa
prices might be high one year but low the next. The
incomes of farmers fluctuated in tandem. The justification
for marketing boards was that they, not the farmers, would
absorb the price fluctuations. When world prices were high,
the board would pay the farmers in Sierra Leone less than
the world price, but when world prices were low, they would
do the opposite. It seemed a good idea in principle. The
reality was very different, however. The Sierra Leone
Produce Marketing Board was set up in 1949. Of course
the board needed a source of revenues to function. The
natural way to attain these was by paying farmers just a little
less than they should have received either in good or bad
years. These funds could then be used for overhead
expenditures and administration. Soon the little less
became a lot less. The colonial state was using the
marketing board as a way of heavily taxing farmers.
Many expected the worst practices of colonial rule in subSaharan Africa to stop after independence, and the use of
marketing boards to excessively tax farmers to come to an
end. But neither happened. In fact, the extraction of farmers
using marketing boards got much worse. By the mid1960s, the farmers of palm kernels were getting 56 percent
of the world price from the marketing board; cocoa farmers,
48 percent; and coffee farmers, 49 percent. By the time
Stevens left office in 1985, resigning to allow his
handpicked successor, Joseph Momoh, to become
president, these numbers were 37, 19, and 27 percent,
respectively. As pitiful as this might sound, it was better
than what the farmers were getting during Stevens’s reign,
which had often been as low as 10 percent—that is, 90
percent of the income of the farmers was extracted by
Stevens’s government, and not to provide public services,
such as roads or education, but to enrich himself and his
cronies and to buy political support.
As part of their indirect rule, the British had also
stipulated that the office of the paramount chief would be
held for life. To be eligible to be a chief, one had to be a
member of a recognized “ruling house.” The identity of the
ruling houses in a chieftaincy developed over time, but it
was essentially based on the lineage of the kings in a
particular area and of the elite families who signed treaties
with the British in the late nineteenth century. Chiefs were
elected, but not democratically. A body called the Tribal
Authority, whose members were lesser village chiefs or
were appointed by paramount chiefs, village chiefs, or the
British authorities, decided who would become the
paramount chief. One might have imagined that this
colonial institution would also have been abolished or at
least reformed after independence. But just like the
marketing board, it was not, and continued unchanged.
Today paramount chiefs are still in charge of collecting
taxes. It is no longer a hut tax, but its close descendant, a
poll tax. In 2005 the Tribal Authority in Sandor elected a
new paramount chief. Only candidates from the Fasuluku
ruling house, which is the only ruling house, could stand.
The victor was Sheku Fasuluku, King Suluku’s great-greatgrandson.
The behavior of the marketing boards and the traditional
systems of land ownership go a long way to explain why
agricultural productivity is so low in Sierra Leone and much
of sub-Saharan Africa. The political scientist Robert Bates
set out in the 1980s to understand why agriculture was so
unproductive in Africa even though according to textbook
economics this ought to have been the most dynamic
economic sector. He realized that this had nothing to do
with geography or the sorts of factors discussed in chapter
2 that have been claimed to make agricultural productivity
intrinsically low. Rather, it was simply because the pricing
policies of the marketing boards removed any incentives
for the farmers to invest, use fertilizers, or preserve the soil.
The reason that the policies of the marketing boards
were so unfavorable to rural interests was that these
interests had no political power. These pricing policies
interacted with other fundamental factors making tenure
insecure, further undermining investment incentives. In
Sierra Leone, paramount chiefs not only provide law and
order and judicial services, and raise taxes, but they are
also the “custodians of the land.” Though families, clans,
and dynasties have user rights and traditional rights to land;
at the end of the day chiefs have the last say on who farms
where. Your property rights to land are only secure if you
are connected to the chief, perhaps from the same ruling
family. Land cannot be bought or sold or used as collateral
for a loan, and if you are born outside a chieftaincy, you
cannot plant any perennial crop such as coffee, cocoa, or
palm for fear that this will allow you to establish “de facto”
property rights.
The contrast between the extractive institutions
developed by the British in Sierra Leone and the inclusive
institutions that developed in other colonies, such as
Australia, is illustrated by the way mineral resources were
managed. Diamonds were discovered in Kono in eastern
Sierra Leone in January 1930. The diamonds were alluvial,
that is, not in deep mines. So the primary method of mining
them was by panning in rivers. Some social scientists call
these “democratic diamonds,” because they allow many
people to become involved in mining, creating a potentially
inclusive opportunity. Not so in Sierra Leone. Happily
ignoring the intrinsically democratic nature of panning for
diamonds, the British government set up a monopoly for the
entire protectorate, called it the Sierra Leone Selection
Trust, and granted it to De Beers, the giant South African
diamond mining company. In 1936 De Beers was also
given the right to create the Diamond Protection Force, a
private army that would become larger than that of the
colonial government in Sierra Leone. Even so, the
widespread availability of the alluvial diamonds made the
situation difficult to police. By the 1950s, the Diamond
Protection Force was overwhelmed by thousands of illegal
diamond miners, a massive source of conflict and chaos. In
1955 the British government opened up some of the
diamond fields to licensed diggers outside the Sierra
Leone Selection Trust, though the company still kept the
richest areas in Yengema and Koidu and Tongo Fields.
Things only got worse after independence. In 1970 Siaka
Stevens effectively nationalized the Sierra Leone Selection
Trust, creating the National Diamond Mining Company
(Sierra Leone) Limited, in which the government, effectively
meaning Stevens, had a 51 percent stake. This was the
opening phase of Stevens’s plan to take over diamond
mining in the country.
In nineteenth-century Australia it was gold, discovered in
1851 in New South Wales and the newly created state of
Victoria, not diamonds, that attracted everyone’s attention.
Like diamonds in Sierra Leone, the gold was alluvial, and a
decision had to be made about how to exploit it. Some,
such as James Macarthur, son of John Macarthur, the
prominent leader of the Squatters we discussed earlier
(this page–this page), proposed that fences be placed
around the mining areas and the monopoly rights auctioned
off. They wanted an Australian version of the Sierra Leone
Selection Trust. Yet many in Australia wanted free access
to the gold mining areas. The inclusive model won, and
instead of setting up a monopoly, Australian authorities
allowed anyone who paid an annual mining license fee to
search and dig for gold. Soon the diggers, as these
adventurers came to be known, were a powerful force in
Australian politics, particularly in Victoria. They played an
important role in pushing forward the agenda of universal
suffrage and the secret ballot.
We have already seen two pernicious effects of
European expansion and colonial rule in Africa: the
introduction of the transatlantic slave trade, which
encouraged the development of African political and
economic institutions in an extractive direction, and the use
of colonial legislation and institutions to eliminate the
development of African commercial agriculture that might
have competed with Europeans. Slavery was certainly a
force in Sierra Leone. At the time of colonization there was
no strong centralized state in the interior, just many small,
mutually antagonistic kingdoms continually raiding one
another and capturing one another’s men and women.
Slavery was endemic, with possibly 50 percent of the
population working as slaves. The disease environment
meant that large-scale white settlement was not possible in
Sierra Leone, as it was in South Africa. Hence there were
no whites competing with the Africans. Moreover, the lack
of a mining economy on the scale of Johannesburg meant
that, in addition to the lack of demand for African labor from
white farms, there was no incentive to create the extractive
labor market institutions so characteristic of Apartheid
South Africa.
But other mechanisms were also in play. Sierra Leone’s
cocoa and coffee farmers did not compete with whites,
though their incomes were still expropriated via a
government monopoly, the marketing board. Sierra Leone
also suffered from indirect rule. In many parts of Africa
where the British authorities wished to use indirect rule,
they found peoples who did not have a system of
centralized authority who could be taken over. For example,
in eastern Nigeria the Igbo peoples had no chiefs when the
British encountered them in the nineteenth century. The
British then created chiefs, the warrant chiefs. In Sierra
Leone, the British would base indirect rule on existing
indigenous institutions and systems of authority.
Nevertheless, regardless of the historical basis for the
individuals recognized as paramount chiefs in 1896,
indirect rule, and the powers that it invested in paramount
chiefs, completely changed the existing politics of Sierra
Leone. For one, it introduced a system of social
stratification—the ruling houses—where none had existed
previously. A hereditary aristocracy replaced a situation
that had been much more fluid and where chiefs had
required popular support. Instead what emerged was a
rigid system with chiefs holding office for life, beholden to
their patrons in Freetown or Britain, and far less
accountable to the people they ruled. The British were
happy to subvert the institutions in other ways, too, for
example, by replacing legitimate chiefs with people who
were more cooperative. Indeed, the Margai family, which
supplied the first two prime ministers of independent Sierra
Leone, came to power in the Lower Banta chieftaincy by
siding with the British in the Hut Tax Rebellion against the
reigning chief, Nyama. Nyama was deposed, and the
Margais became chiefs and held the position until 2010.
What is remarkable is the extent of continuity between
colonial and independent Sierra Leone. The British created
the marketing boards and used them to tax farmers.
Postcolonial governments did the same extracting at even
higher rates. The British created the system of indirect rule
through paramount chiefs. Governments that followed
independence didn’t reject this colonial institution; rather,
they used it to govern the countryside as well. The British
set up a diamond monopoly and tried to keep out African
miners. Postindependence governments did the same. It is
true that the British thought that building railways was a
good way to rule Mendeland, while Siaka Stevens thought
the opposite. The British could trust their army and knew it
could be sent to Mendeland if a rebellion arose. Stevens,
on the other hand, could not do so. As in many other African
nations, a strong army would have become a threat to
Stevens’s rule. It was for this reason that he emasculated
the army, cutting it down and privatizing violence through
specially created paramilitary units loyal only to him, and in
the process, he accelerated the decline of the little state
authority that existed in Sierra Leone. Instead of the army,
first came the Internal Security Unit, the ISU, which Sierra
Leone’s long-suffering people knew as “I Shoot U.” Then
came the Special Security Division, the SSD, which the
people knew as “Siaka Stevens’s Dogs.” In the end, the
absence of an army supporting the regime would also be
its undoing. It was a group of only thirty soldiers, led by
Captain Valentine Strasser, that pitched the APC regime
from power on April 29, 1992.
Sierra Leone’s development, or lack thereof, could be
best understood as the outcome of the vicious circle.
British colonial authorities built extractive institutions in the
first place, and the postindependence African politicians
were only too happy to take up the baton for themselves.
The pattern was eerily similar all over sub-Saharan Africa.
There were similar hopes for postindependence Ghana,
Kenya, Zambia, and many other African countries. Yet in all
these cases, extractive institutions were re-created in a
pattern predicted by the vicious circle—only they became
more vicious as time went by. In all these countries, for
example, the British creation of marketing boards and
indirect rule were sustained.
There are natural reasons for this vicious circle.
Extractive political institutions lead to extractive economic
institutions, which enrich a few at the expense of many.
Those who benefit from extractive institutions thus have the
resources to build their (private) armies and mercenaries,
to buy their judges, and to rig their elections in order to
remain in power. They also have every interest in defending
the system. Therefore, extractive economic institutions
create the platform for extractive political institutions to
persist. Power is valuable in regimes with extractive
political institutions, because power is unchecked and
brings economic riches.
Extractive political institutions also provide no checks
against abuses of power. Whether power corrupts is
debatable, but Lord Acton was certainly right when he
argued that absolute power corrupts absolutely. We saw in
the previous chapter that even when Franklin Roosevelt
wished to use his presidential powers in a way that he
thought would be beneficial for the society, unencumbered
by constraints imposed by the Supreme Court, the inclusive
U.S. political institutions prevented him from setting aside
the constraints on his power. Under extractive political
institutions, there is little check against the exercise of
power, however distorted and sociopathic it may become.
In 1980 Sam Bangura, then the governor of the central bank
in Sierra Leone, criticized Siaka Stevens’s policies for
being profligate. He was soon murdered and thrown from
the top floor of the central bank building onto the aptly
named Siaka Stevens Street. Extractive political
institutions thus also tend to create a vicious circle because
they provide no line of defense against those who want to
further usurp and misuse the powers of the state.
Yet another mechanism for the vicious circle is that
extractive institutions, by creating unconstrained power and
great income inequality, increase the potential stakes of the
political game. Because whoever controls the state
becomes the beneficiary of this excessive power and the
wealth that it generates, extractive institutions create
incentives for infighting in order to control power and its
benefits, a dynamic that we saw played out in Maya citystates and in Ancient Rome. In this light, it is no surprise
that the extractive institutions that many African countries
inherited from the colonial powers sowed the seeds of
power struggles and civil wars. These struggles would be
very different conflicts from the English Civil War and the
Glorious Revolution. They would not be fought to change
political institutions, introduce constraints on the exercise of
power, or create pluralism, but to capture power and enrich
one group at the expense of the rest. In Angola, Burundi,
Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Ethiopia, Liberia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Republic of
Congo Brazzaville, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda,
and of course in Sierra Leone, as we will see in more detail
in the next chapter, these conflicts would turn into bloody
civil wars and would create economic ruin and unparalleled
human suffering—as well as cause state failure.
FROM ENCOMIENDA TO LAND GRAB
On January 14, 1993, Ramiro De León Carpio was sworn
in as the president of Guatemala. He named Richard
Aitkenhead Castillo as his minister of finance, and Ricardo
Castillo Sinibaldi as his minister of development. These
three men all had something in common: all were direct
descendants of Spanish conquistadors who had come to
Guatemala in the early sixteenth century. De León’s
illustrious ancestor was Juan De León Cardona, while the
Castillos were related to Bernal Díaz del Castillo, a man
who wrote one of the most famous eyewitness accounts of
the conquest of Mexico. In reward for his service to Hernán
Cortés, Díaz del Castillo was appointed governor of
Santiago de los Caballeros, which is today the city of
Antigua in Guatemala. Both Castillo and De León founded
dynasties along with other conquistadors, such as Pedro
de Alvarado. The Guatemalan sociologist Marta Casaús
Arzú identified a core group of twenty-two families in
Guatemala that had ties through marriage to another
twenty-six families just outside the core. Her genealogical
and political study suggested that these families have
controlled economic and political power in Guatemala
since 1531. An even broader definition of which families
were part of this elite suggested that they accounted for just
over 1 percent of the population in the 1990s.
In Sierra Leone and in much of sub-Saharan Africa, the
vicious circle took the form of the extractive institutions set
up by colonial powers being taken over by
postindependence leaders. In Guatemala, as in much of
Central America, we see a simpler, more naked form of the
vicious circle: those who have economic and political
power structure institutions to ensure the continuity of their
power, and succeed in doing so. This type of vicious circle
leads to the persistence of extractive institutions and the
persistence of the same elites in power together with the
persistence of underdevelopment.
At the time of the conquest, Guatemala was densely
settled, probably with a population of around two million
Mayas. Disease and exploitation took a heavy toll as
everywhere else in the Americas. It was not until the 1920s
that its total population returned to this level. As elsewhere
in the Spanish Empire, the indigenous people were
allocated to conquistadors in grants of encomienda. As we
saw in the context of the colonization of Mexico and Peru,
t he encomienda was a system of forced labor, which
subsequently gave way to other similar coercive
institutions, particularly to the repartimiento, also called the
mandamiento in Guatemala. The elite, made up of the
descendants of the conquistadors and some indigenous
elements, not only benefited from the various forced labor
systems but also controlled and monopolized trade through
a merchant guild called the Consulado de Comercio. Most
of the population in Guatemala was high in the mountains
and far from the coast. The high transportation costs
reduced the extent of the export economy, and initially land
was not very valuable. Much of it was still in the hands of
indigenous peoples, who had large communal landholdings
called ejidos. The remainder was largely unoccupied and
notionally owned by the government. There was more
money in controlling and taxing trade, such as it was, than
in controlling the land.
Just as in Mexico, the Guatemalan elite viewed the Cadiz
Constitution (this page–this page) with hostility, which
encouraged them to declare independence just as the
Mexican elites did. Following a brief union with Mexico and
the Central American Federation, the colonial elite ruled
Guatemala under the dictatorship of Rafael Carrera from
1839 to 1871. During this period the descendants of the
conquistadors and the indigenous elite maintained the
extractive economic institutions of the colonial era largely
unchanged. Even the organization of the Consulado did not
alter with independence. Though this was a royal institution,
it happily continued under a republican government.
Independence then was simply a coup by the preexisting
local elite, just as in Mexico; they carried on as usual with
the extractive economic institutions from which they had
benefited so much. Ironically enough, during this period the
Consulado remained in charge of the economic
development of the country. But as had been the case preindependence, the Consulado had its own interests at
heart, not those of the country. Part of its responsibility was
for the development of infrastructure, such as ports and
roads, but as in Austria-Hungary, Russia, and Sierra
Leone, this often threatened creative destruction and could
have destabilized the system. Therefore, the development
of infrastructure, rather than being implemented, was often
resisted. For example, the development of a port on the
Suchitepéquez coast, bordering the Pacific Ocean, was
one of the proposed projects. At the time the only proper
ports were on the Caribbean coast, and these were
controlled by the Consulado. The Consulado did nothing on
the Pacific side because a port in that region would have
provided a much easier outlet for goods from the highland
towns of Mazatenango and Quezaltenango, and access to
a different market for these goods would have undermined
the Consulado’s monopoly on foreign trade. The same
logic applied to roads, where, again, the Consulado had
the responsibility for the entire country. Predictably it also
refused to build roads that would have strengthened
competing groups or would have potentially undone its
monopoly. Pressure to do so again came from western
Guatemala and Quezaltenango, in the Los Altos region. But
if the road between Los Altos and the Suchitepéquez coast
had been improved, this could have created a merchant
class, which would have been a competitor to the
Consulado merchants in the capital. The road did not get
improved.
As a result of this elite dominance, Guatemala was
caught in a time warp in the middle of the nineteenth
century, as the rest of the world was changing rapidly. But
these changes would ultimately affect Guatemala.
Transportation costs were falling due to technological
innovations such as the steam train, the railways, and new,
much faster types of ships. Moreover, the rising incomes of
people in Western Europe and North America were
creating a mass demand for many products that a country
such as Guatemala could potentially produce.
Early in the century, some indigo and then cochineal,
both natural dyes, had been produced for export, but the
more profitable opportunity would become coffee
production. Guatemala had a lot of land suitable for coffee,
and cultivation began to spread—without any assistance
from the Consulado. As the world price of coffee rose and
international trade expanded, there were huge profits to be
made, and the Guatemalan elite became interested in
coffee. In 1871 the long-lasting regime of the dictator
Carrera was finally overthrown by a group of people calling
themselves Liberals, after the worldwide movement of that
name. What liberalism means has changed over time. But
in the nineteenth century in the United States and Europe, it
was similar to what is today called libertarianism, and it
stood for freedom of individuals, limited government, and
free trade. Things worked a little differently in Guatemala.
Led initially by Miguel García Granados, and after 1873 by
Justo Rufino Barrios, the Guatemalan Liberals were, for the
most part, not new men with liberal ideals. By and large, the
same families remained in charge. They maintained
extractive political institutions and implemented a huge
reorganization of the economy to exploit coffee. They did
abolish the Consulado in 1871, but economic
circumstances had changed. The focus of extractive
economic institutions would now be the production and
export of coffee.
Coffee production needed land and labor. To create land
for coffee farms, the Liberals pushed through land
privatization, in fact really a land grab in which they would
be able to capture land previously held communally or by
the government. Though their attempt was bitterly
contested, given the highly extractive political institutions
and the concentration of political power in Guatemala, the
elite were ultimately victorious. Between 1871 and 1883
nearly one million acres of land, mostly indigenous
communal land and frontier lands, passed into the hands of
the elite, and it was only then that coffee developed rapidly.
The aim was the formation of large estates. The privatized
lands were auctioned off typically to members of the
traditional elite or those connected with them. The coercive
power of the Liberal state was then used to help large
landowners gain access to labor by adapting and
intensifying various systems of forced labor. In November
1876, President Barrios wrote to all the governors of
Guatemala noting that
because the country has extensive areas of
land that it needs to exploit by cultivation
using the multitude of workers who today
remain outside the movement of
development of the nation’s productive
elements, you are to give all help to export
agriculture:
1. From the Indian towns of your jurisdiction
provide to the owners of fincas [farms] of that
department who ask for labor the number of
workers they need, be it fifty or one hundred.
The repartimiento, the forced labor draft, had never been
abolished after independence, but now it was increased in
scope and duration. It was institutionalized in 1877 by
Decree 177, which specified that employers could request
and receive from the government up to sixty workers for
fifteen days of work if the property was in the same
department, and for thirty days if it was outside it. The
request could be renewed if the employer so desired.
These workers could be forcibly recruited unless they could
demonstrate from their personal workbook that such
service had recently been performed satisfactorily. All rural
workers were also forced to carry a workbook, called a
libreta, which included details of whom they were working
for and a record of any debts. Many rural workers were
indebted to their employers, and an indebted worker could
not leave his current employer without permission. Decree
177 further stipulated that the only way to avoid being
drafted into the repartimiento was to show you were
currently in debt to an employer. Workers were trapped. In
addition to these laws, numerous vagrancy laws were
passed so that anyone who could not prove he had a job
would be immediately recruited for the repartimiento or
other types of forced labor on the roads, or would be forced
to accept employment on a farm. As in nineteenth- and
twentieth-century South Africa, land policies after 1871
were also designed to undermine the subsistence
economy of the indigenous peoples, to force them to work
for low wages. The repartimiento lasted until the 1920s; the
libreta system and the full gamut of vagrancy laws were in
effect until 1945, when Guatemala experienced its first brief
flowering of democracy.
Just as before 1871, the Guatemalan elite ruled via
military strongmen. They continued to do so after the coffee
boom took off. Jorge Ubico, president between 1931 and
1944, ruled longest. Ubico won the presidential election in
1931 unopposed, since nobody was foolish enough to run
against him. Like the Consulado, he didn’t approve of
doing things that would have induced creative destruction
and threatened both his political power and his and the
elite’s profits. He therefore opposed industry for the same
reason that Francis I in Austria-Hungary and Nicholas I in
Russia did: industrial workers would have caused trouble.
In a legislation unparalleled in its paranoid repressiveness,
Ubico banned the use of words such as obreros (workers),
sindicatos (labor unions), and huelgas (strikes). You could
be jailed for using any one of them. Even though Ubico was
powerful, the elite pulled the strings. Opposition to his
regime mounted in 1944, headed by disaffected university
students who began to organize demonstrations. Popular
discontent increased, and on June 24, 311 people, many of
them from the elite, signed the Memorial de los 311, an
open letter denouncing the regime. Ubico resigned on July
1. Though he was followed by a democratic regime in
1945, this was overthrown by a coup in 1954, leading to a
murderous civil war. Guatemala democratized again after
only 1986.
The Spanish conquistadors had no compunction about
setting up an extractive political and economic system. That
was why they had come all the way to the New World. But
most of the institutions they set up were meant to be
temporary.
The encomienda, for example, was a
temporary grant of rights over labor. They did not have a
fully worked-out plan of how they would set up a system that
would persist for another four hundred years. In fact, the
institutions they set up changed significantly along the way,
but one thing did not: the extractive nature of the institutions,
the result of the vicious circle. The form of extraction
changed, but neither the extractive nature of the institutions
nor the identity of the elite did. In Guatemala the
encomienda, the repartimiento, and the monopolization of
trade gave way to the libreta and the land grab. But the
majority of the indigenous Maya continued to work as lowwage laborers with little education, no rights, and no public
services.
In Guatemala, as in much of Central America, in a typical
pattern of the vicious circle, extractive political institutions
supported extractive economic institutions, which in turn
provided the basis for extractive political institutions and
the continuation of the power of the same elite.
FROM SLAVERY TO JIM CROW
In Guatemala, extractive institutions persisted from colonial
to modern times with the same elite firmly in control. Any
change in institutions resulted from adaptations to changing
environments, as was the case with the land grab by the
elite motivated by the coffee boom. The institutions in the
U.S. South were similarly extractive until the Civil War.
Economics and politics were dominated by the southern
elite, plantation owners with large land and slave holdings.
Slaves had neither political nor economic rights; indeed,
they had few rights of any kind.
The South’s extractive economic and political institutions
made it considerably poorer than the North by the middle of
the nineteenth century. The South lacked industry and made
relatively little investment in infrastructure. In 1860 its total
manufacturing output was less than that of Pennsylvania,
New York, or Massachusetts. Only 9 percent of the southern
population lived in urban areas, compared with 35 percent
in the Northeast. The density of railroads (i.e., miles of track
divided by land area) was three times higher in the North
than in southern states. The ratio of canal mileage was
similar.
Map 18 (this page) shows the extent of slavery by plotting
the percentage of the population that were slaves across
U.S. counties in 1840. It is apparent that slavery was
dominant in the South with some counties, for example,
along the Mississippi River having as much as 95 percent
of the population slaves. Map 19 (this page) then shows
one of the consequences of this, the proportion of the labor
force working in manufacturing in 1880. Though this was
not high anywhere by twentieth-century standards, there are
marked differences between the North and the South. In
much of the Northeast, more than 10 percent of the labor
force worked in manufacturing. In contrast in much of the
South, particularly the areas with heavy concentrations of
slaves, the proportion was basically zero.
The South was not even innovative in the sectors in which
it specialized: from 1837 to 1859, the numbers of patents
issued per year for innovations related to corn and wheat
were on average twelve and ten, respectively; there was
just one per year for the most important crop of the South,
cotton. There was no indication that industrialization and
economic growth would commence anytime soon. But
defeat in the Civil War was followed by fundamental
economic and political reform at bayonet point. Slavery
was abolished, and black men were allowed to vote.
These major changes should have opened the way for a
radical transformation of southern extractive institutions into
inclusive ones, and launched the South onto a path to
economic prosperity. But in yet another manifestation of the
vicious circle, nothing of the sort happened. A continuation
of extractive institutions, this time of the Jim Crow kind
rather than of slavery, emerged in the South. The phrase
Jim Crow, which supposedly originated from “Jump Jim
Crow,” an early-nineteenth-century satire of black people
performed by white performers in “blackface,” came to
refer to the whole gamut of segregationist legislation that
was enacted in the South after 1865. These persisted for
almost another century, until yet another major upheaval, the
civil rights movement. In the meantime, blacks continued to
be excluded from power and repressed. Plantation-type
agriculture based on low-wage, poorly educated labor
persisted, and southern incomes fell further relative to the
U.S. average. The vicious circle of extractive institutions
was stronger than many had expected at the time.
The reason that the economic and political trajectory of
the South never changed, even though slavery was
abolished and black men were given the right to vote, was
because blacks’ political power and economic
independence were tenuous. The southern planters lost the
war, but would win the peace. They were still organized and
they still owned the land. During the war, freed slaves had
been offered the promise of forty acres and a mule when
slavery was abolished, and some even got it during the
famous campaigns of General William T. Sherman. But in
1865, President Andrew Johnson revoked Sherman’s
orders, and the hoped-for land redistribution never took
place. In a debate on this issue in Congress, Congressman
George Washington Julian presciently noted, “Of what avail
would be an act of congress totally abolishing slavery … if
the old agricultural basis of aristocratic power shall
remain?” This was the beginning of the “redemption” of the
old South and the persistence of the old southern landed
elite.
The sociologist Jonathan Wiener studied the persistence
of the planter elite in five counties of the Black Belt, prime
cotton country, of southern Alabama. Tracking families from
the U.S. census and considering those with at least
$10,000 of real estate, he found that of the 236 members of
the planter elite in 1850, 101 maintained their position in
1870. Interestingly, this rate of persistence was very similar
to that experienced in the pre–Civil War period; of the 236
wealthiest planter families of 1850, only 110 remained so a
decade later. Nevertheless, of the 25 planters with the
largest landholdings in 1870, 18 (72 percent) had been in
the elite families in 1860; 16 had been in the 1850 elite
group. While more than 600,000 were killed in the Civil
War, the planter elites suffered few casualties. The law,
designed by the planters and for the planters, exempted
one slaveholder from military service for every twenty
slaves held. As hundreds of thousands of men died to
preserve the southern plantation economy, many big
slaveholders and their sons sat out the war on their porches
and thus were able to ensure the persistence of the
plantation economy.
After the end of the war, the elite planters controlling the
land were able to reexert their control over the labor force.
Though the economic institution of slavery was abolished,
the evidence shows a clear line of persistence in the
economic system of the South based on plantation-type
agriculture with cheap labor. This economic system was
maintained through a variety of channels, including both
control of local politics and exercise of violence. As a
consequence, in the words of the African American scholar
W.E.B. Du Bois, the South became “simply an armed
camp for intimidating black folk.”
In 1865 the state legislature of Alabama passed the
Black Code, an important landmark toward the repression
of black labor. Similar to Decree 177 in Guatemala, the
Black Code of Alabama consisted of a vagrancy law and a
law against the “enticement” of laborers. It was designed to
impede labor mobility and reduce competition in the labor
market, and it ensured that southern planters would still
have a reliable low-cost labor pool.
Following the Civil War, the period called Reconstruction
lasted from 1865 until 1877. Northern politicians, with the
help of the Union Army, engineered some social changes
in the South. But a systematic backlash from the southern
elite in the guise of support for the so-called Redeemers,
seeking the South’s redemption, re-created the old system.
In the 1877 presidential election, Rutherford Hayes needed
southern support in the electoral college. This college, still
used today, was at the heart of the indirect election for
president created by the U.S. Constitution. Citizens’ votes
do not directly elect the president but instead elect electors
who then choose the president in the electoral college. In
exchange for their support in the electoral college, the
southerners demanded that Union soldiers be withdrawn
from the South and the region left to its own devices. Hayes
agreed. With southern support, Hayes became president
and pulled out the troops. The period after 1877 then
marked the real reemergence of the pre–Civil War planter
elite. The redemption of the South involved the introduction
of new poll taxes and literacy tests for voting, which
systematically disenfranchised blacks, and often also the
poor white population. These attempts succeeded and
created a one-party regime under the Democratic Party,
with much of the political power vested in the hands of the
planter elite.
The Jim Crow laws created separate, and predictably
inferior, schools. Alabama, for example, rewrote its
constitution in 1901 to achieve this. Shockingly, even today
Section 256 of Alabama’s constitution, though no longer
enforced, still states:
Duty of legislature to establish and maintain
public school system; apportionment of
public school fund; separate schools for white
and colored children.
The legislature shall establish, organize,
and maintain a liberal system of public
schools throughout the state for the benefit of
the children thereof between the ages of
seven and twenty-one years. The public
school fund shall be apportioned to the
several counties in proportion to the number
of school children of school age therein, and
shall be so apportioned to the schools in the
districts or townships in the counties as to
provide, as nearly as practicable, school
terms of equal duration in such school
districts or townships. Separate schools shall
be provided for white and colored children,
and no child of either race shall be permitted
to attend a school of the other race.
An amendment to strike Section 256 from the
constitution was narrowly defeated in the state legislature in
2004.
Disenfranchisement, the vagrancy laws such as the
Black Code of Alabama, various Jim Crow laws, and the
actions of the Ku Klux Klan, often financed and supported
by the elite, turned the post–Civil War South into an
effective apartheid society, where blacks and whites lived
different lives. As in South Africa, these laws and practices
were aimed at controlling the black population and its labor.
Southern politicians in Washington also worked to make
sure that the extractive institutions of the South could
persist. For instance, they ensured that no federal projects
or public works that would have jeopardized southern elite
control over the black workforce ever got approved.
Consequently, the South entered the twentieth century as a
largely rural society with low levels of education and
backward technology, still employing hand labor and mule
power virtually unassisted by mechanical implements.
Though the proportion of people in urban areas increased,
it was far less than in the North. In 1900, for example, 13.5
percent of the population of the South was urbanized, as
compared with 60 percent in the Northeast.
All in all, the extractive institutions in the southern United
States, based on the power of the landed elite, plantation
agriculture, and low-wage, low-education labor, persisted
well into the twentieth century. These institutions started to
crumble only after the Second World War and then truly
after the civil rights movement destroyed the political basis
of the system. And it was only after the demise of these
institutions in the 1950s and ’60s that the South began its
process of rapid convergence to the North.
The U.S. South shows another, more resilient side of the
vicious circle: as in Guatemala, the southern planter elite
remained in power and structured economic and political
institutions in order to ensure the continuity of its power. But
differently from Guatemala, it was faced with significant
challenges after its defeat in the Civil War, which abolished
slavery and reversed the total, constitutional exclusion of
blacks from political participation. But there is more than
one way of skinning a cat: as long as the planter elite was
in control of its huge landholdings and remained organized,
it could structure a new set of institutions, Jim Crow instead
of slavery, to achieve the same objective. The vicious circle
turned out to be stronger than many, including Abraham
Lincoln, had thought. The vicious circle is based on
extractive political institutions creating extractive economic
institutions, which in turn support the extractive political
institutions, because economic wealth and power buy
political power. When forty acres and a mule was off the
table, the southern planter elite’s economic power
remained untarnished. And, unsurprisingly and
unfortunately, the implications for the black population of the
South, and the South’s economic development, were the
same.
THE IRON LAW OF OLIGARCHY
The Solomonic dynasty in Ethiopia lasted until it was
overthrown by a military coup in 1974. The coup was led by
the Derg, a group of Marxist army officers. The regime that
the Derg pitched from power looked like it was frozen in
some earlier century, a historical anachronism. The
emperor Haile Selassie would start his day by arriving in
the courtyard at the Grand Palace, which had been built by
Emperor Menelik II in the late nineteenth century. Outside
the palace would be a crowd of dignitaries anticipating his
arrival, bowing and desperately trying to get his attention.
The emperor would hold court in the Audience Hall, sitting
on the imperial throne. (Selassie was a small man; so that
his legs were not left swinging in the air, it was the job of a
special pillow bearer to accompany him wherever he went
to make sure there was a suitable pillow to put under his
feet. The bearer kept a stock of fifty-two pillows to cope
with any situation.) Selassie presided over an extreme set
of extractive institutions and ran the country as his own
private property, handing out favors and patronage and
ruthlessly punishing lack of loyalty. There was no economic
development to speak of in Ethiopia under the Solomonic
dynasty.
The Derg initially formed out of 108 representatives of
different military units from all over the country. The
representative of the Third Division in Harar province was a
major named Mengistu Haile Mariam. Though in their initial
declaration of July 4, 1974, the Derg officers declared their
loyalty to the emperor, they soon started to arrest members
of the government, testing how much opposition it would
create. As they became more confident that the support for
Selassie’s regime was hollow, they moved on the emperor
himself, arresting him on September 12. Then the
executions began. Many politicians at the core of the old
regime were swiftly killed. By December, the Derg had
declared that Ethiopia was a socialist state. Selassie died,
probably murdered, on August 27, 1975. In 1975 the Derg
started nationalizing property, including all urban and rural
land and most kinds of private property. The increasingly
authoritarian behavior of the regime sparked opposition
around the country. Large parts of Ethiopia were put
together during the European colonial expansion in the late
nineteenth and early twentieth centuries by the policies of
Emperor Menelik II, the victor of the battle of Adowa, which
we encountered before (this page). These included Eritrea
and Tigray in the north and the Ogaden in the east.
Independence movements in response to the Derg’s
ruthless regime emerged in Eritrea and Tigray, while the
Somali army invaded the Somali-speaking Ogaden. The
Derg itself started to disintegrate and split into factions.
Major Mengistu turned out to be the most ruthless and
clever of them. By mid-1977 he had eliminated his major
opponents and effectively taken charge of the regime,
which was saved from collapse only by a huge influx of
weapons and troops from the Soviet Union and Cuba later
in November of that year.
In 1978 the regime organized a national celebration
marking the fourth anniversary of the overthrow of Haile
Selassie. By this time Mengistu was the unchallenged
leader of the Derg. As his residence, the place from where
he would rule Ethiopia, he had chosen Selassie’s Grand
Palace, left unoccupied since the monarchy was abolished.
At the celebration, he sat on a gilded armchair, just like the
emperors of old, watching the parade. Official functions
were now held once again at the Grand Palace, with
Mengistu sitting on Haile Selassie’s old throne. Mengistu
started to compare himself to Emperor Tewodros, who had
refounded the Solomonic Dynasty in the mid-nineteenth
century after a period of decline.
One of his ministers, Dawit Wolde Giorgis, recalled in his
memoir:
At the beginning of the Revolution all of us
had utterly rejected anything to do with the
past. We would no longer drive cars, or wear
suits; neckties were considered criminal.
Anything that made you look well-off or
bourgeois, anything that smacked of
affluence or sophistication, was scorned as
part of the old order. Then, around 1978, all
that began to change. Gradually materialism
became accepted, then required. Designer
clothes from the best European tailors were
the uniform of all senior government officials
and members of the Military Council. We had
the best of everything: the best homes, the
best cars, the best whiskey, champagne,
food. It was a complete reversal of the ideals
of the Revolution.
Giorgis also vividly recorded how Mengistu changed
once he became sole ruler:
The real Mengistu emerged: vengeful, cruel
and authoritarian … Many of us who used to
talk to him with hands in our pockets, as if he
were one of us, found ourselves standing
stiffly to attention, cautiously respectful in his
presence. In addressing him we had always
used the familiar form of “you,” ante; now we
found ourselves switching to the more formal
“you,” ersiwo. He moved into a bigger, more
lavish office in the Palace of Menelik … He
began using the Emperor’s cars … We were
supposed to have a revolution of equality;
now he had become the new Emperor.
The pattern of vicious circle depicted by the transition
between Haile Selassie and Mengistu, or between the
British colonial governors of Sierra Leone and Siaka
Stevens, is so extreme and at some level so strange that it
deserves a special name. As we already mentioned in
chapter 4, the German sociologist Robert Michels called it
the iron law of oligarchy. The internal logic of oligarchies,
and in fact of all hierarchical organizations, is that, argued
Michels, they will reproduce themselves not only when the
same group is in power, but even when an entirely new
group takes control. What Michels did not anticipate
perhaps was an echo of Karl Marx’s remark that history
repeats itself—the first time as tragedy, the second time as
farce.
It is not only that many of the postindependence leaders
of Africa moved into the same residences, made use of the
same patronage networks, and employed the same ways
of manipulating markets and extracting resources as had
the colonial regimes and the emperors they replaced; but
they also made things worse. It was indeed a farce that the
staunchly anticolonial Stevens would be concerned with
controlling the same people, the Mende, whom the British
had sought to control; that he would rely on the same chiefs
whom the British had empowered and then used to control
the hinterland; that he would run the economy in the same
way, expropriating the farmers with the same marketing
boards and controlling the diamonds under a similar
monopoly. It was indeed a farce, a very sad farce indeed,
that Laurent Kabila, who mobilized an army against
Mobutu’s dictatorship with the promise of freeing the
people and ending the stifling and impoverishing corruption
and repression of Mobutu’s Zaire, would then set up a
regime just as corrupt and perhaps even more disastrous. It
was certainly farcical that he tried to start a Mobutuesque
personality cult aided and abetted by Dominique Sakombi
Inongo, previously Mobutu’s minister of information, and
that Mobutu’s regime was itself fashioned on patterns of
exploitation of the masses that had started more than a
century previously with King Leopold’s Congo Free State. It
was indeed a farce that the Marxist officer Mengistu would
start living in a palace, viewing himself as an emperor, and
enriching himself and his entourage just like Haile Selassie
and other emperors before him had done.
It was all a farce, but also more tragic than the original
tragedy, and not only for the hopes that were dashed.
Stevens and Kabila, like many other rulers in Africa, would
start murdering their opponents and then innocent citizens.
Mengistu and the Derg’s policies would bring recurring
famine to Ethiopia’s fertile lands. History was repeating
itself, but in a very distorted form. It was a famine in Wollo
province in 1973 to which Haile Selassie was apparently
indifferent that did so much finally to solidify opposition to
his regime. Selassie had at least been only indifferent.
Mengistu instead saw famine as a political tool to
undermine the strength of his opponents. History was not
only farcical and tragic, but also cruel to the citizens of
Ethiopia and much of sub-Saharan Africa.
The essence of the iron law of oligarchy, this particular
facet of the vicious circle, is that new leaders overthrowing
old ones with promises of radical change bring nothing but
more of the same. At some level, the iron law of oligarchy is
harder to understand than other forms of the vicious circle.
There is a clear logic to the persistence of the extractive
institutions in the U.S. South and in Guatemala. The same
groups continued to dominate the economy and the politics
for centuries. Even when challenged, as the U.S. southern
planters were after the Civil War, their power remained
intact and they were able to keep and re-create a similar
set of extractive institutions from which they would again
benefit. But how can we understand those who come to
power in the name of radical change re-creating the same
system? The answer to this question reveals, once again,
that the vicious circle is stronger than it first appears.
Not all radical changes are doomed to failure. The
Glorious Revolution was a radical change, and it led to
what perhaps turned out to be the most important political
revolution of the past two millennia. The French Revolution
was even more radical, with its chaos and excessive
violence and the ascent of Napoleon Bonaparte, but it did
not re-create the ancien régime.
Three factors greatly facilitated the emergence of more
inclusive political institutions following the Glorious
Revolution and the French Revolution. The first was new
merchants and businessmen wishing to unleash the power
of creative destruction from which they themselves would
benefit; these new men were among the key members of
the revolutionary coalitions and did not wish to see the
development of yet another set of extractive institutions that
would again prey on them.
The second was the nature of the broad coalition that
had formed in both cases. For example, the Glorious
Revolution wasn’t a coup by a narrow group or a specific
narrow interest, but a movement backed by merchants,
industrialists, the gentry, and diverse political groupings.
The same was largely true for the French Revolution.
The third factor relates to the history of English and
French political institutions. They created a background
against which new, more inclusive regimes could develop.
In both countries there was a tradition of parliaments and
power sharing going back to the Magna Carta in England
and to the Assembly of Notables in France. Moreover, both
revolutions happened in the midst of a process that had
already weakened the grasp of the absolutist, or aspiring
absolutist, regimes. In neither case would these political
institutions make it easy for a new set of rulers or a narrow
group to take control of the state and usurp existing
economic wealth and build unchecked and durable political
power. In the aftermath of the French Revolution, a narrow
group under the leadership of Robespierre and Saint-Just
did take control, with disastrous consequences, but this
was temporary and did not derail the path toward more
inclusive institutions. All this contrasts with the situation of
societies with long histories of extreme extractive
economic and political institutions, and no checks on the
power of rulers. In these societies, there would be no new
strong merchants or businessmen supporting and
bankrolling the resistance against the existing regime in
part to secure more inclusive economic institutions; no
broad coalitions introducing constraints against the power
of each of their members; no political institutions inhibiting
new rulers intent on usurping and exploiting power.
In consequence, in Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, and the
Congo, the vicious circle would be far harder to resist, and
moves toward inclusive institutions far more unlikely to get
under way. There were also no traditional or historical
institutions that could check the power of those who would
take control of the state. Such institutions had existed in
some parts of Africa, and some, as in Botswana, even
survived the colonial era. But they were much less
prominent throughout Sierra Leone’s history, and to the
extent that they existed, they were warped by indirect rule.
The same was true in other British colonies in Africa, such
as Kenya and Nigeria. They never existed in the absolutist
kingdom of Ethiopia. In the Congo, indigenous institutions
were emasculated by Belgian colonial rule and the
autocratic policies of Mobutu. In all these societies, there
were also no new merchants, businessmen, or
entrepreneurs supporting the new regimes and demanding
secure property rights and an end to previous extractive
institutions. In fact, the extractive economic institutions of
the colonial period meant that there was not much
entrepreneurship or business left at all.
The international community thought that postcolonial
African independence would lead to economic growth
through a process of state planning and cultivation of the
private sector. But the private sector was not there—except
in rural areas, which had no representation in the new
governments and would thus be their first prey. Most
important perhaps, in most of these cases there were
enormous benefits from holding power. These benefits both
attracted the most unscrupulous men, such as Stevens,
who wished to monopolize this power, and brought the
worst out of them once they were in power. There was
nothing to break the vicious circle.
NEGATIVE FEEDBACK AND VICIOUS CIRCLES
Rich nations are rich largely because they managed to
develop inclusive institutions at some point during the past
three hundred years. These institutions have persisted
through a process of virtuous circles. Even if inclusive only
in a limited sense to begin with, and sometimes fragile,
they generated dynamics that would create a process of
positive feedback, gradually increasing their inclusiveness.
England did not become a democracy after the Glorious
Revolution of 1688. Far from it. Only a small fraction of the
population had formal representation, but crucially, she was
pluralistic. Once pluralism was enshrined, there was a
tendency for the institutions to become more inclusive over
time, even if this was a rocky and uncertain process.
In this, England was typical of virtuous circles: inclusive
political institutions create constraints against the exercise
and usurpation of power. They also tend to create inclusive
economic institutions, which in turn make the continuation
of inclusive political institutions more likely.
Under inclusive economic institutions, wealth is not
concentrated in the hands of a small group that could then
use its economic might to increase its political power
disproportionately. Furthermore, under inclusive economic
institutions there are more limited gains from holding
political power, thus weaker incentives for every group and
every ambitious, upstart individual to try to take control of
the state. A confluence of factors at a critical juncture,
including interplay between existing institutions and the
opportunities and challenges brought by the critical
juncture, is generally responsible for the onset of inclusive
institutions, as the English case demonstrates. But once
these inclusive institutions are in place, we do not need the
same confluence of factors for them to survive. Virtuous
circles, though still subject to significant contingency,
enable the institutions’ continuity and often even unleash
dynamics taking society toward greater inclusiveness.
As virtuous circles make inclusive institutions persist,
vicious circles create powerful forces toward the
persistence of extractive institutions. History is not destiny,
and vicious circles are not unbreakable, as we will see
further in chapter 14. But they are resilient. They create a
powerful process of negative feedback, with extractive
political institutions forging extractive economic institutions,
which in turn create the basis for the persistence of
extractive political institutions. We saw this most clearly in
the case of Guatemala, where the same elite held power,
first under colonial rule, then in independent Guatemala, for
more than four centuries; extractive institutions enrich the
elite, and their wealth forms the basis for the continuation of
their domination.
The same process of the vicious circle is also apparent
in the persistence of the plantation economy in the U.S.
South, except that it also showcases the vicious circle’s
great resilience in the face of challenges. U.S. southern
planters lost their formal control of economic and political
institutions after their defeat in the Civil War. Slavery, which
was the basis of the plantation economy, was abolished,
and blacks were given equal political and economic rights.
Yet the Civil War did not destroy the political power of the
planter elite or its economic basis, and they were able to
restructure the system, under a different guise but still under
their own local political control, and to achieve the same
objective: abundance of low-cost labor for the plantations.
This form of the vicious circle, where extractive
institutions persist because the elite controlling them and
benefiting from them persists, is not its only form. At first a
more puzzling, but no less real and no less vicious, form of
negative feedback shaped the political and economic
development of many nations, and is exemplified by the
experiences of much of sub-Saharan Africa, in particular
Sierra Leone and Ethiopia. In a form that the sociologist
Robert Michels would recognize as the iron law of
oligarchy, the overthrow of a regime presiding over
extractive institutions heralds the arrival of a new set of
masters to exploit the same set of pernicious extractive
institutions.
The logic of this type of vicious circle is also simple to
understand in hindsight: extractive political institutions
create few constraints on the exercise of power, so there
are essentially no institutions to restrain the use and abuse
of power by those overthrowing previous dictators and
assuming control of the state; and extractive economic
institutions imply that there are great profits and wealth to
be made merely by controlling power, expropriating the
assets of others, and setting up monopolies.
Of course, the iron law of oligarchy is not a true law, in the
sense that the laws of physics are. It does not chart an
inevitable path, as the Glorious Revolution in England or the
Meiji Restoration in Japan illustrate.
A key factor in these episodes, which saw a major turn
toward inclusive institutions, was the empowerment of a
broad coalition that could stand up against absolutism and
would replace the absolutist institutions by more inclusive,
pluralistic ones. A revolution by a broad coalition makes the
emergence of pluralistic political institutions much more
likely. In Sierra Leone and Ethiopia, the iron law of
oligarchy was made more likely not only because existing
institutions were highly extractive but also because neither
the independence movement in the former nor the Derg
coup in the latter were revolutions led by such broad
coalitions, but rather by individuals and groups seeking
power so that they could do the extracting.
There is yet another, even more destructive facet of the
vicious circle, anticipated by our discussion of the Maya
city-states in chapter 5. When extractive institutions create
huge inequalities in society and great wealth and
unchecked power for those in control, there will be many
wishing to fight to take control of the state and institutions.
Extractive institutions then not only pave the way for the next
regime, which will be even more extractive, but they also
engender continuous infighting and civil wars. These civil
wars then cause more human suffering and also destroy
even what little state centralization these societies have
achieved. This also often starts a process of descent into
lawlessness, state failure, and political chaos, crushing all
hopes of economic prosperity, as the next chapter will
illustrate.
13.
WHY NATIONS FAIL TODAY
HOW TO WIN THE LOTTERY IN ZIMBABWE
IT WAS JANUARY 2000 in Harare, Zimbabwe. Master of
Ceremonies Fallot Chawawa was in charge of drawing the
winning ticket for the national lottery organized by a partly
state-owned bank, the Zimbabwe Banking Corporation
(Zimbank). The lottery was open to all clients who had kept
five thousand or more Zimbabwe dollars in their accounts
during December 1999. When Chawawa drew the ticket,
he was dumfounded. As the public statement of Zimbank
put it, “Master of Ceremonies Fallot Chawawa could hardly
believe his eyes when the ticket drawn for the Z$100,000
prize was handed to him and he saw His Excellency RG
Mugabe written on it.”
President Robert Mugabe, who had ruled Zimbabwe by
hook or by crook, and usually with an iron fist, since 1980,
had won the lottery, which was worth a hundred thousand
Zimbabwe dollars, about five times the annual per capita
income of the country. Zimbank claimed that Mr. Mugabe’s
name had been drawn from among thousands of eligible
customers. What a lucky man! Needless to say he didn’t
really need the money. Mugabe had in fact only recently
awarded himself and his cabinet salary hikes of up to 200
percent.
The lottery ticket was just one more indication of
Zimbabwe’s extractive institutions. One could call this
corruption, but it is just a symptom of the institutional
malaise in Zimbabwe. The fact that Mugabe could even win
the lottery if he wanted showed how much control he had
over matters in Zimbabwe, and gave the world a glimpse of
the extent of the country’s extractive institutions.
The most common reason why nations fail today is
because they have extractive institutions. Zimbabwe under
Mugabe’s regime vividly illustrates the economic and social
consequences. Though the national statistics in Zimbabwe
are very unreliable, the best estimate is that by 2008,
Zimbabwe’s per capita income was about half of what it
was when the country gained its independence in 1980.
Dramatic as this sounds, it does not in fact begin to capture
the deterioration in living standards in Zimbabwe. The state
has collapsed and more or less stopped providing any
basic public services. In 2008–2009 the deterioration in the
health systems led to an outbreak of cholera across the
country. As of January 10, 2010, there have been 98,741
reported cases and 4,293 deaths, making it the deadliest
cholera outbreak in Africa over the previous fifteen years. In
the meantime, mass unemployment has also reached
unprecedented levels. In early 2009, the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs claimed that the
unemployment rate had hit an incredible 94 percent.
The roots of many economic and political institutions in
Zimbabwe, as is the case for much of sub-Saharan Africa,
can be traced back to the colonial period. In 1890 Cecil
Rhodes’s British South Africa Company sent a military
expedition into the then-kingdom of the Ndebele, based in
Matabeleland, and also into the neighboring Mashonaland.
Their superior weaponry quickly suppressed African
resistance, and by 1901 the colony of Southern Rhodesia,
named after Rhodes, had been formed in the area that is
currently Zimbabwe. Now that the area was a privately
owned concession of the British South Africa Company,
Rhodes anticipated making money there through
prospecting and mining for precious minerals. The ventures
never got off the ground, but the very rich farmlands began
attracting white migration. These settlers soon annexed
much of the land. By 1923 they had freed themselves from
the rule of the British South Africa Company and
persuaded the British government to grant them selfgovernment. What then occurred is very similar to what had
happened in South Africa a decade or so previously. The
1913 Natives Land Act (this page–this page) created a
dual economy in South Africa. Rhodesia passed very
similar laws, and inspired by the South African model, a
white-only apartheid state was constructed soon after
1923.
As the European colonial empires collapsed in the late
1950s and early 1960s, the white elite in Rhodesia, led by
Ian Smith, comprising possibly 5 percent of the population,
declared independence from Britain in 1965. Few
international governments recognized Rhodesia’s
independence, and the United Nations levied economic
and political sanctions against it. The black citizens
organized a guerrilla war from bases in the neighboring
countries of Mozambique and Zambia. International
pressure and the rebellion waged by the two main groups,
Mugabe’s ZANU (the Zimbabwe African National Union)
and ZAPU (the Zimbabwe African People’s Union), led by
Joshua Nkomo, resulted in a negotiated end to white rule.
The state of Zimbabwe was created in 1980.
After independence, Mugabe quickly established his
personal control. He either violently eliminated his
opponents or co-opted them. The most egregious acts of
violence happened in Matabeleland, the heartland of
support for ZAPU, where as many as twenty thousand
people were killed in the early 1980s. By 1987 ZAPU had
merged with ZANU to create ZANU-PF, and Joshua
Nkomo was sidelined politically. Mugabe was able to
rewrite the constitution he had inherited as a part of the
independence negotiation, making himself president (he
had started as prime minister), abolishing white voter rolls
that were part of the independence agreement, and
eventually, in 1990, getting rid of the Senate altogether and
introducing positions in the legislature that he could
nominate. A de facto one-party state headed by Mugabe
was the result.
Upon independence, Mugabe took over a set of
extractive economic institutions created by the white
regime. These included a host of regulations on prices and
international trade, state-run industries, and the obligatory
agricultural marketing boards. State employment expanded
rapidly, with jobs given to supporters of ZANU-PF. The tight
government regulation of the economy suited the ZANU-PF
elites because it made it difficult for an independent class
of African businessmen, who might then have challenged
the former’s political monopoly, to emerge. This was very
similar to the situation we saw in Ghana in the 1960s in
chapter 2 (this page–this page). Ironically, of course, this
left whites as the main business class. During this period
the main strengths of the white economy, particularly the
highly productive agricultural export sector, was left
untouched. But this would last only until Mugabe became
unpopular.
The model of regulation and market intervention
gradually became unsustainable, and a process of
institutional change, with the support of the World Bank and
the International Monetary Fund, began in 1991 after a
severe fiscal crisis. The deteriorating economic
performance finally led to the emergence of a serious
political opposition to ZANU-PF’s one-party rule: the
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The 1995
parliamentary elections were far from competitive. ZANUPF won 81 percent of the vote and 118 out of the 120
seats. Fifty-five of these members of Parliament were
elected unopposed. The presidential election the following
year showed even more signs of irregularities and fraud.
Mugabe won 93 percent of the vote, but his two opponents,
Abel Muzorewa and Ndabaningi Sithole, had already
withdrawn their candidacy prior to the election, accusing
the government of coercion and fraud.
After 2000, despite all the corruption, ZANU-PF’s grip
was weakening. It took only 49 percent of the popular vote,
and only 63 seats. All were contested by the MDC, who
took every seat in the capital, Harare. In the presidential
election of 2002, Mugabe scraped home with only 56
percent of the vote. Both sets of elections went ZANU-PF’s
way only because of violence and intimidation, coupled with
electoral fraud.
The response of Mugabe to the breakdown of his
political control was to intensify both the repression and the
use of government policies to buy support. He unleashed a
full-scale assault on white landowners. Starting in 2000, he
encouraged and supported an extensive series of land
occupations and expropriations. They were often led by war
veterans’ associations, groups supposedly comprised of
former combatants in the war of independence. Some of
the expropriated land was given to these groups, but much
of it also went to the ZANU-PF elites. The insecurity of
property rights wrought by Mugabe and ZANU-PF led to a
collapse of agricultural output and productivity. As the
economy crumbled, the only thing left was to print money to
buy support, which led to enormous hyperinflation. In
January 2009, it became legal to use other currencies,
such as the South African rand, and the Zimbabwean dollar
vanished from circulation, a worthless piece of paper.
What happened in Zimbabwe after 1980 was
commonplace in sub-Saharan Africa since independence.
Zimbabwe inherited a set of highly extractive political and
economic institutions in 1980. For the first decade and a
half, these were maintained relatively untouched. While
elections took place, political institutions were anything but
inclusive. Economic institutions changed somewhat; for
example, there was no longer explicit discrimination
against blacks. But on the whole the institutions remained
extractive, with the only difference being that instead of Ian
Smith and the whites doing the extracting, it was Robert
Mugabe and the ZANU-PF elites filling their pockets. Over
time the institutions became even more extractive, and
incomes in Zimbabwe collapsed. The economic and
political failure in Zimbabwe is yet another manifestation of
the iron law of oligarchy—in this instance, with the
extractive and repressive regime of Ian Smith being
replaced by the extractive, corrupt, and repressive regime
of Robert Mugabe. Mugabe’s fake lottery win in 2000 was
then simply the tip of a very corrupt and historically shaped
iceberg.
NATIONS FAIL TODAY because their extractive economic
institutions do not create the incentives needed for people
to save, invest, and innovate. Extractive political institutions
support these economic institutions by cementing the
power of those who benefit from the extraction. Extractive
economic and political institutions, though their details vary
under different circumstances, are always at the root of this
failure. In many cases, for example, as we will see in
Argentina, Colombia, and Egypt, this failure takes the form
of lack of sufficient economic activity, because the
politicians are just too happy to extract resources or quash
any type of independent economic activity that threatens
themselves and the economic elites. In some extreme
cases, as in Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone, which we
discuss next, extractive institutions pave the way for
complete state failure, destroying not only law and order but
also even the most basic economic incentives. The result is
economic stagnation and—as the recent history of Angola,
Cameroon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Haiti, Liberia, Nepal, Sierra Leone, Sudan, and Zimbabwe
illustrates—civil wars, mass displacements, famines, and
epidemics, making many of these countries poorer today
than they were in the 1960s.
A CHILDREN’S CRUSADE?
On March 23, 1991, a group of armed men under the
leadership of Foday Sankoh crossed the border from
Liberia into Sierra Leone and attacked the southern frontier
town of Kailahun. Sankoh, formerly a corporal in the Sierra
Leonean army, had been imprisoned after taking part in an
abortive coup against Siaka Stevens’s government in
1971. After being released, he eventually ended up in
Libya, where he entered a training camp that the Libyan
dictator Colonel Qaddafi ran for African revolutionaries.
There he met Charles Taylor, who was plotting to overthrow
the government in Liberia. When Taylor invaded Liberia on
Christmas Eve 1989, Sankoh was with him, and it was with
a group of Taylor’s men, mostly Liberians and Burkinabes
(citizens of Burkina Faso), that Sankoh invaded Sierra
Leone. They called themselves the RUF, the Revolutionary
United Front, and they announced that they were there to
overthrow the corrupt and tyrannical government of the
APC.
As we saw in the previous chapter, Siaka Stevens and
his All People’s Congress, the APC, took over and
intensified the extractive institutions of colonial rule in
Sierra Leone, just as Mugabe and ZANU-PF did in
Zimbabwe. By 1985, when Stevens, ill with cancer, brought
in Joseph Momoh to replace him, the economy was
collapsing. Stevens, apparently without irony, used to enjoy
quoting the aphorism “The cow eats where it is tethered.”
And where Stevens had once eaten, Momoh now gorged.
The roads fell to pieces, and schools disintegrated.
National television broadcasts stopped in 1987, when the
transmitter was sold by the minister of information, and in
1989 a radio tower that relayed radio signals outside
Freetown fell down, ending transmissions outside the
capital. An analysis published in a newspaper in the capital
city of Freetown in 1995 rings very true:
by the end of Momoh’s rule he had stopped
paying civil servants, teachers and even
Paramount Chiefs. Central government had
collapsed, and then of course we had border
incursions, “rebels” and all the automatic
weapons pouring over the border from
Liberia. The NPRC, the “rebels” and the
“sobels” [soldiers turned rebels] all amount to
the chaos one expects when government
disappears. None of them are the causes of
our problems, but they are symptoms.
The collapse of the state under Momoh, once again a
consequence of the vicious circle unleashed by the extreme
extractive institutions under Stevens, meant that there was
nothing to stop the RUF from coming across the border in
1991. The state had no capacity to oppose it. Stevens had
already emasculated the military, because he worried they
might overthrow him. It was then easy for a relatively small
number of armed men to create chaos in most of the
country. They even had a manifesto called “Footpaths to
Democracy,” which started with a quote from the black
intellectual Frantz Fanon: “Each generation must, out of
relative obscurity, discover its mission, fulfill it or betray it.”
The section “What Are We Fighting For?” begins:
We continue to fight because we are tired of
being perpetual victims of state sponsored
poverty and human degradation visited on us
by years of autocratic rule and militarism. But,
we shall exercise restraint and continue to
wait patiently at the rendezvous of peace—
where we shall all be winners. We are
committed to peace, by any means
necessary, but what we are not committed to
is becoming victims of peace. We know our
cause to be just and God/Allah will never
abandon us in our struggle to reconstruct a
new Sierra Leone.
Though Sankoh and other RUF leaders may have started
with political grievances, and the grievances of the people
suffering under the APC’s extractive institutions may have
encouraged them to join the movement early on, the
situation quickly changed and spun out of control. The
“mission” of the RUF plunged the country into agony, as in
the testimony of a teenager from Geoma, in the south of
Sierra Leone:
They gathered some of us … They chose
some of our friends and killed them, two of
them. These were people whose fathers
were the chiefs, and they had soldiers’ boots
and property in their houses. They were shot,
for no other reason than that they were
accused of harbouring soldiers. The chiefs
were also killed—as part of the government.
They chose someone to be the new chief.
They were still saying they had come to free
us from the APC. After a point, they were not
choosing people to kill, just shooting people.
In the first year of the invasion, any intellectual roots that
the RUF may have had were completely extinguished.
Sankoh executed those who criticized the mounting stream
of atrocities. Soon, few voluntarily joined the RUF. Instead
they turned to forcible recruitment, particularly of children.
Indeed, all sides did this, including the army. If the Sierra
Leonean civil war was a crusade to build a better society,
in the end it was a children’s crusade. The conflict
intensified with massacres and massive human rights
abuses, including mass rapes and the amputation of hands
and ears. When the RUF took over areas, they also
engaged in economic exploitation. It was most obvious in
the diamond mining areas, where they press-ganged
people into diamond mining, but was widespread
elsewhere as well.
The RUF wasn’t alone in committing atrocities,
massacres, and organized forced labor. The government
did so as well. Such was the collapse of law and order that
it became difficult for people to tell who was a soldier and
who was a rebel. Military discipline completely vanished.
By the time the war ended in 2001, probably eighty
thousand people had died and the whole country had been
devastated. Roads, houses, and buildings were entirely
destroyed. Today, if you go to Koidu, a major diamondproducing area in the east, you’ll still see rows of burnedout houses scarred with bullet holes.
By 1991 the state in Sierra Leone had totally failed. Think
of what King Shyaam started with the Bushong (this
page–this page): he set up extractive institutions to cement
his power and extract the output the rest of society would
produce. But even extractive institutions with central
authority concentrated in his hands were an improvement
over the situation without any law and order, central
authority, or property rights that characterized the Lele
society on the other side of the river Kasai. Such lack of
order and central authority has been the fate of many
African nations in recent decades, partly because the
process of political centralization was historically delayed in
much of sub-Saharan Africa, but also because the vicious
circle of extractive institutions reversed any state
centralization that existed, paving the way for state failure.
Sierra Leone during her bloody civil war of ten years,
from 1991 to 2001, was a typical case of a failed state. It
started out as just another country marred by extractive
institutions, albeit of a particularly vicious and inefficient
type. Countries become failed states not because of their
geography or their culture, but because of the legacy of
extractive institutions, which concentrate power and wealth
in the hands of those controlling the state, opening the way
for unrest, strife, and civil war. Extractive institutions also
directly contribute to the gradual failing of the state by
neglecting investment in the most basic public services,
exactly what happened in Sierra Leone.
Extractive institutions that expropriate and impoverish the
people and block economic development are quite
common in Africa, Asia, and South America. Charles
Taylor helped to start the civil war in Sierra Leone while at
the same time initiating a savage conflict in Liberia, which
led to state failure there, too. The pattern of extractive
institutions collapsing into civil war and state failure has
happened elsewhere in Africa; for example, in Angola,
Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Mozambique, Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and
Uganda. Extraction paves the way for conflict, not unlike the
conflict that the highly extractive institutions of the Maya citystates generated almost a thousand years ago. Conflict
precipitates state failure. So another reason why nations
fail today is that their states fail. This, in turn, is a
consequence of decades of rule under extractive economic
and political institutions.
WHO IS THE STATE?
The cases of Zimbabwe, Somalia, and Sierra Leone, even
if typical of poor countries in Africa, and perhaps even
some in Asia, seem rather extreme. Surely Latin American
countries do not have failed states? Surely their presidents
are not brazen enough to win the lottery?
In Colombia, the Andean Mountains gradually merge to
the north with a large coastal plain that borders the
Caribbean Ocean. Colombians call this the tierra caliente,
the “hot country,” as distinct from the Andean world of the
tierra fria, the “cold country.” For the last fifty years,
Colombia has been regarded by most political scientists
and governments as a democracy. The United States feels
happy to negotiate a potential free trade agreement with
the country and pours all kinds of aid into it, particularly
military aid. After a short-lived military government, which
ended in 1958, elections have been regularly held, even
though until 1974 a pact rotated political power and the
presidency between the two traditional political parties, the
Conservatives and the Liberals. Still, this pact, the National
Front, was itself ratified by the Colombian people via a
plebiscite, and this all seems democratic enough.
Yet while Colombia has a long history of democratic
elections, it does not have inclusive institutions. Instead, its
history has been marred by violations of civil liberties,
extrajudicial executions, violence against civilians, and civil
war. Not the sort of outcomes we expect from a democracy.
The civil war in Colombia is different from that in Sierra
Leone, where the state and society collapsed and chaos
reigned. But it is a civil war nonetheless and one that has
caused far more casualties. The military rule of the 1950s
was itself partially in response to a civil war known in
Spanish simply as La Violencia, or “The Violence.” Since
that time quite a range of insurgent groups, mostly
communist revolutionaries, have plagued the countryside,
kidnapping and murdering. To avoid either of these
unpleasant options in rural Colombia, you have to pay the
vacuna, literally “the vaccination,” meaning that you have to
vaccinate yourself against being murdered or kidnapped by
paying off some group of armed thugs each month.
Not all armed groups in Colombia are communists. In
1981 members of the main communist guerrilla group in
Colombia, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de
Colombia (the FARC—the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia) kidnapped a dairy farmer, Jesus Castaño, who
lived in a small town called Amalfi in the hot country in the
northeastern part of the department of Antioquia. The
FARC demanded a ransom amounting to $7,500, a small
fortune in rural Colombia. The family raised it by
mortgaging the farm, but their father’s corpse was found
anyway, chained to a tree. Enough was enough for three of
Castaño’s sons, Carlos, Fidel, and Vicente. They founded
a paramilitary group, Los Tangueros, to hunt down
members of the FARC and avenge this act. The brothers
were good at organizing, and soon their group grew and
began to find a common interest with other similar
paramilitary groups that had developed from similar
causes. Colombians in many areas were suffering at the
hands of left-wing guerrillas, and right-wing paramilitaries
formed in opposition. Paramilitaries were being used by
landowners to defend themselves against the guerrillas, but
they were also involved in drug trafficking, extortion, and the
kidnapping and murder of citizens.
By 1997 the paramilitaries, under the leadership of the
Castaño brothers, had managed to form a national
organization for paramilitaries called the Autodefensas
Unidas de Colombia (the AUC—United Self-Defense
Forces of Colombia). The AUC expanded into large parts
of the country, particularly into the hot country, in the
departments of Córdoba, Sucre, Magdalena, and César.
By 2001 the AUC may have had as many as thirty thousand
armed men at its disposal and was organized into different
blocks. In Córdoba, the paramilitary Bloque Catatumbo
was led by Salvatore Mancuso. As its power continued to
grow, the AUC made a strategic decision to get involved in
politics. Paramilitaries and politicians courted each other.
Several of the leaders of the AUC organized a meeting with
prominent politicians in the town of Santa Fé de Ralito in
Córdoba. A joint document, a pact, calling for the
“refounding of the country” was issued and signed by
leading members of the AUC, such as “Jorge 40” (the
nickname for Rodrigo Tovar Pupo), Adolfo Paz (a nom de
guerre for Diego Fernando “Don Berna” Murillo), and
Diego Vecino (real name: Edwar Cobo Téllez), along with
politicians, including national senators William Montes and
Miguel de la Espriella. By this point the AUC was running
large tracts of Colombia, and it was easy for them to fix
who got elected in the 2002 elections for the Congress and
Senate. For example, in the municipality of San Onofre, in
Sucre, the election was arranged by the paramilitary leader
Cadena (“chain”). One eyewitness described what
happened as follows:
The trucks sent by Cadena went around the
neighborhoods, corregimientos and rural
areas of San Onofre picking people up.
According to some inhabitants … for the
2002 elections hundreds of peasants were
taken to the corregimiento Plan Parejo so
they could see the faces of the candidates
they had to vote for in the parliamentarian
elections: Jairo Merlano for Senate and
Muriel Benito Rebollo for Congress.
Cadena put in a bag the names of the
members of the municipal council, took out
two and said that he would kill them and other
people chosen randomly if Muriel did not win.
The threat seems to have worked: each candidate
obtained forty thousand votes in the whole of Sucre. It is no
surprise that the mayor of San Onofre signed the pact of
Santa Fé de Ralito. Probably one-third of the congressmen
and senators owed their election in 2002 to paramilitary
support, and Map 20, which depicts the areas of Colombia
under paramilitary control, shows how widespread their
hold was. Salvatore Mancuso himself put it in an interview
in the following way:
35 percent of the Congress was elected in
areas where there were states of the SelfDefense groups, in those states we were the
ones collecting taxes, we delivered justice,
and we had the military and territorial control
of the region and all the people who wanted
to go into politics had to come and deal with
the political representatives we had there.
It is not difficult to imagine the effect of this extent of
paramilitary control of politics and society on economic
institutions and public policy. The expansion of the AUC
was not a peaceful affair. The group not only fought against
the FARC, but also murdered innocent civilians and
terrorized and displaced hundreds of thousands of people
from their homes. According to the Internal Displacement
Monitoring Centre (IDMC) of the Norwegian Refugee
Council, in early 2010 around 10 percent of Colombia’s
population, nearly 4.5 million people, was internally
displaced. The paramilitaries also, as Mancuso suggested,
took over the government and all its functions, except that
the taxes they collected were just expropriation for their own
pockets. An extraordinary pact between the paramilitary
leader Martín Llanos (real name: Héctor Germán Buitrago)
and the mayors of the municipalities of Tauramena,
Aguazul, Maní, Villanueva, Monterrey, and Sabanalarga, in
the department of Casanare in eastern Colombia, lists the
following rules to which the mayors had to adhere by order
of the “Paramilitary Peasants of Casanare”:
9) Give 50 percent of the municipality budget to be
managed by the Paramilitary Peasants of Casanare.
10) 10 percent of each and every contract of the
municipality [to be given to the Paramilitary Peasants
of Casanare].
11) Mandatory assistance to all the meetings called by
the Paramilitary Peasants of Casanare.
12) Inclusion of the Paramilitary Peasants of Casanare
in every infrastructure project.
13) Affiliation to the new political party formed by the
Paramilitary Peasants of Casanare.
14) Accomplishment of his/hers governance program.
Casanare is not a poor department. On the contrary, it
has the highest level of per capita income of any
Colombian department, because it has significant oil
deposits, just the kind of resources that attract
paramilitaries. In fact, once they gained power, the
paramilitaries intensified their systematic expropriation of
property. Mancuso himself reputedly accumulated $25
million worth of urban and rural property. Estimates of land
expropriated in Colombia by paramilitaries are as high as
10 percent of all rural land.
Colombia is not a case of a failed state about to
collapse. But it is a state without sufficient centralization
and with far-from-complete authority over all its territory.
Though the state is able to provide security and public
services in large urban areas such as Bogotá and
Barranquilla, there are significant parts of the country where
it provides few public services and almost no law and
order. Instead, alternative groups and people, such as
Mancuso, control politics and resources. In parts of the
country, economic institutions function quite well, and there
are high levels of human capital and entrepreneurial skill; in
other parts the institutions are highly extractive, even failing
to provide a minimal degree of state authority.
It might be hard to understand how a situation like this
can sustain itself for decades, even centuries. But in fact,
the situation has a logic of its own, as a type of vicious
circle. Violence and the absence of centralized state
institutions of this type enter into a symbiotic relationship
with politicians running the functional parts of the society.
The symbiotic relationship arises because national
politicians exploit the lawlessness in peripheral parts of the
country, while paramilitary groups are left to their own
devices by the national government.
This pattern became particularly apparent in the 2000s.
In 2002 the presidential election was won by Álvaro Uribe.
Uribe had something in common with the Castaño brothers:
his father had been killed by the FARC. Uribe ran a
campaign repudiating the attempts of the previous
administration to try to make peace with the FARC. In 2002
his vote share was 3 percentage points higher in areas with
paramilitaries than without them. In 2006, when he was
reelected, his vote share was 11 percentage points higher
in such areas. If Mancuso and his partners could deliver the
vote for Congress and the Senate, they could do so in
presidential elections as well, particularly for a president
strongly aligned with their worldview and likely to be lenient
on them. As Jairo Angarita, Salvatore Mancuso’s deputy
and the former leader of the AUC’s Sinú and San Jorge
blocs, declared in September 2005, he was proud to work
for the “reelection of the best president we have ever had.”
Once elected, the paramilitary senators and
congressmen voted for what Uribe wanted, in particular
changing the constitution so that he could be reelected in
2006, which had not been allowed at the time of his first
election, in 2002. In exchange, President Uribe delivered a
highly lenient law that allowed the paramilitaries to
demobilize. Demobilization did not mean the end of
paramilitarism, simply its institutionalization in large parts of
Colombia and the Colombian state, which the
paramilitaries had taken over and were allowed to keep.
In Colombia many aspects of economic and political
institutions have become more inclusive over time. But
certain major extractive elements remain. Lawlessness and
insecure property rights are endemic in large swaths of the
country, and this is a consequence of the lack of control by
the national state in many parts of the country, and the
particular form of lack of state centralization in Colombia.
But this state of affairs is not an inevitable outcome. It is
itself a consequence of dynamics mirroring the vicious
circle: political institutions in Colombia do not generate
incentives for politicians to provide public services and law
and order in much of the country and do not put enough
constraints on them to prevent them from entering into
implicit or explicit deals with paramilitaries and thugs.
EL CORRALITO
Argentina was in the grip of an economic crisis in late
2001. For three years, income had been falling,
unemployment had been rising, and the country had
accumulated a massive international debt. The policies
leading to this situation were adopted after 1989 by the
government of Carlos Menem, to stop hyperinflation and
stabilize the economy. For a time they were successful.
In 1991 Menem tied the Argentine peso to the U.S.
dollar. One peso was equal to one dollar by law. There was
to be no change in the exchange rate. End of story. Well,
almost. To convince people that the government really
meant to stick to the law, it persuaded people to open bank
accounts in U.S. dollars. Dollars could be used in the shops
of the capital city of Buenos Aires and withdrawn from cash
machines all over the city. This policy may have helped
stabilize the economy, but it had one big drawback. It made
Argentine exports very expensive and foreign imports very
cheap. Exports dribbled to a halt; imports gushed in. The
only way to pay for them was to borrow. It was an
unsustainable situation. As more people began worrying
about the sustainability of the peso, they put more of their
wealth into dollar accounts at banks. After all, if the
government ripped up the law and devalued the peso, they
would be safe with dollar accounts, right? They were right to
be worried about the peso. But they were too optimistic
about their dollars.
On December 1, 2001, the government froze all bank
accounts, initially for ninety days. Only a small amount of
cash was allowed for withdrawal on a weekly basis. First it
was 250 pesos, still worth $250; then 300 pesos. But this
was allowed to be withdrawn only from peso accounts.
Nobody was allowed to withdraw money from their dollar
accounts, unless they agreed to convert the dollars into
pesos. Nobody wanted to do so. Argentines dubbed this
situation El Corralito, “the Little Corral”: depositors were
hemmed into a corral like cows, with nowhere to go. In
January the devaluation was finally enacted, and instead of
there being one peso for one dollar, there were soon four
pesos for one dollar. This should have been a vindication of
those who thought that they should put their savings in
dollars. But it wasn’t, because the government then forcibly
converted all the dollar bank accounts into pesos, but at the
old one-for-one exchange rate. Someone who had had
$1,000 saved suddenly found himself with only $250. The
government had expropriated three-quarters of people’s
savings.
For economists, Argentina is a perplexing country. To
illustrate how difficult it was to understand Argentina, the
Nobel Prize–winning economist Simon Kuznets once
famously remarked that there were four sorts of countries:
developed, underdeveloped, Japan, and Argentina.
Kuznets thought so because, around the time of the First
World War, Argentina was one of the richest countries in
the world. It then began a steady decline relative to the
other rich countries in Western Europe and North America,
which turned, in the 1970s and ’80s, into an absolute
decline. On the surface of it, Argentina’s economic
performance is puzzling, but the reasons for its decline
become clearer when looked at through the lens of
inclusive and extractive institutions.
It is true that before 1914, Argentina experienced around
fifty years of economic growth, but this was a classic case
of growth under extractive institutions. Argentina was then
ruled by a narrow elite heavily invested in the agricultural
export economy. The economy grew by exporting beef,
hides, and grain in the middle of a boom in the world prices
of these commodities. Like all such experiences of growth
under extractive institutions, it involved no creative
destruction and no innovation. And it was not sustainable.
Around the time of the First World War, mounting political
instability and armed revolts induced the Argentine elites to
try to broaden the political system, but this led to the
mobilization of forces they could not control, and in 1930
came the first military coup. Between then and 1983,
Argentina oscillated backward and forward between
dictatorship and democracy and between various
extractive institutions. There was mass repression under
military rule, which peaked in the 1970s with at least nine
thousand people and probably far more being illegally
executed. Hundreds of thousands were imprisoned and
tortured.
During the periods of civilian rule there were elections—
a democracy of sorts. But the political system was far from
inclusive. Since the rise of Perón in the 1940s, democratic
Argentina has been dominated by the political party he
created, the Partido Justicialista, usually just called the
Perónist Party. The Perónists won elections thanks to a
huge political machine, which succeeded by buying votes,
dispensing patronage, and engaging in corruption,
including government contracts and jobs in exchange for
political support. In a sense this was a democracy, but it
was not pluralistic. Power was highly concentrated in the
Perónist Party, which faced few constraints on what it could
do, at least in the period when the military restrained from
throwing it from power. As we saw earlier (this page–this
page), if the Supreme Court challenged a policy, so much
the worse for the Supreme Court.
In the 1940s, Perón had cultivated the labor movement
as a political base. When it was weakened by military
repression in the 1970s and ’80s, his party simply switched
to buying votes from others instead. Economic policies and
institutions were designed to deliver income to their
supporters, not to create a level playing field. When
President Menem faced a term limit that kept him from
being reelected in the 1990s, it was just more of the same;
he could simply rewrite the constitution and get rid of the
term limit. As El Corralito shows, even if Argentina has
elections and popularly elected governments, the
government is quite able to override property rights and
expropriate its own citizens with impunity. There is little
check on Argentine presidents and political elites, and
certainly no pluralism.
What puzzled Kuznets, and no doubt many others who
visit Buenos Aires, is that the city seems so different from
Lima, Guatemala City, or even Mexico City. You do not see
indigenous people, and you do not see the descendants of
former slaves. Mostly you see the glorious architecture and
buildings put up during the Belle Epoch, the years of growth
under extractive institutions. But in Buenos Aires you see
only part of Argentina. Menem, for example, was not from
Buenos Aires. He was born in Anillaco, in the province of
La Rioja, in the mountains far to the northwest of Buenos
Aires, and he served three terms as governor of the
province. At the time of the conquest of the Americas by the
Spanish, this area of Argentina was an outlying part of the
Inca Empire and had a dense population of indigenous
people (see Map 1 on this page). The Spanish created
encomiendas here, and a highly extractive economy
developed growing food and breeding mules for the miners
in Potosí to the north. In fact, La Rioja was much more like
the area of Potosí in Peru and Bolivia than it was like
Buenos Aires. In the nineteenth century, La Rioja produced
the famous warlord Facundo Quiroga, who ruled the area
lawlessly and marched his army on Buenos Aires. The story
about the development of Argentine political institutions is a
story about how the interior provinces, such as La Rioja,
reached agreements with Buenos Aires. These
agreements were a truce: the warlords of La Rioja agreed
to leave Buenos Aires alone so that it could make money.
In return, the Buenos Aires elites gave up on reforming the
institutions of “the interior.” So Argentina at first appears a
world apart from Peru or Bolivia, but it is really not so
different once you leave the elegant boulevards of Buenos
Aires. That the preferences and the politics of the interior
got embedded into Argentine institutions is the reason why
the country has experienced a very similar institutional path
to those of other extractive Latin American countries.
That elections have not brought either inclusive political
or economic institutions is the typical case in Latin
America. In Colombia, paramilitaries can fix one-third of
national elections. In Venezuela today, as in Argentina, the
democratically elected government of Hugo Chávez attacks
its opponents, fires them from public-sector jobs, closes
down newspapers whose editorials it doesn’t like, and
expropriates property. In whatever he does, Chávez is
much more powerful and less constrained than Sir Robert
Walpole was in Britain in the 1720s, when he was unable to
condemn John Huntridge under the Black Act (this
page–this page). Huntridge would have fared much less
well in present-day Venezuela or Argentina.
While the democracy emerging in Latin America is in
principle diametrically opposed to elite rule, and in rhetoric
and action it tries to redistribute rights and opportunities
away from at least a segment of the elite, its roots are firmly
based in extractive regimes in two senses. First, inequities
persisting for centuries under extractive regimes make
voters in newly emerging democracies vote in favor of
politicians with extreme policies. It is not that Argentinians
are just naïve and think that Juan Perón or the more recent
Perónist politicians such as Menem or the Kirchners are
selfless and looking out for their interests, or that
Venezuelans see their salvation in Chávez. Instead, many
Argentinians and Venezuelans recognize that all other
politicians and parties have for so long failed to give them
voice, to provide them with the most basic public services,
such as roads and education, and to protect them from
exploitation by local elites. So many Venezuelans today
support the policies that Chávez is adopting even if these
come with corruption and waste in the same way that many
Argentinians supported Perón’s policies in the 1940s and
1970s. Second, it is again the underlying extractive
institutions that make politics so attractive to, and so
biased in favor of, strongmen such as Perón and Chávez,
rather than an effective party system producing socially
desirable alternatives. Perón, Chávez, and dozens of other
strongmen in Latin America are just another facet of the
iron law of oligarchy, and as the name suggests, the roots
of this iron law lies in the underlying elite-controlled
regimes.
THE NEW ABSOLUTISM
In November 2009, the government of North Korea
implemented what economists call a currency reform.
Severe bouts of inflation are often the reasons for such
reforms. In France in January 1960, a currency reform
introduced a new franc that was equal to 100 of the existing
francs. Old francs continued in circulation and people even
quoted prices in them as the change to the new francs was
gradually made. Finally, old francs ceased to be legal
tender in January 2002, when France introduced the euro.
The North Korean reform looked similar on the face of it.
Like the French in 1960, the North Korean government
decided to take two zeros off the currency. One hundred old
wons, the currency of North Korea, were to be worth one
new won. Individuals were allowed to come forward to
exchange their old currency for the newly printed currency,
though this had to be done in one week, rather than fortytwo years, as in the French case. Then came the catch: the
government announced that no one could convert more
than 100,000 won, though it later relaxed this to 500,000.
One hundred thousand won was about $40 at the black
market exchange rate. In one stroke, the government had
wiped out a huge fraction of North Korean citizens’ private
wealth; we do not know exactly how much, but it is probably
greater than that expropriated by the Argentine government
in 2002.
The government in North Korea is a communist
dictatorship opposed to private property and markets. But
it is difficult to control black markets, and black markets
make transactions in cash. Of course quite a bit of foreign
exchange is involved, particularly Chinese currency, but
many transactions use won. The currency reform was
designed to punish people who used these markets and,
more specifically, to make sure that they did not become
too wealthy or powerful enough to threaten the regime.
Keeping them poor was safer. Black markets are not the
whole story. People in North Korea also keep their savings
in wons because there are few banks in Korea, and they
are all owned by the government. In effect, the government
used the currency reform to expropriate much of people’s
savings.
Though the government says it regards markets as bad,
the North Korean elite rather like what markets can produce
for them. The leader, Kim Jong-Il, has a seven-story
pleasure palace equipped with a bar, a karaoke machine,
and a mini movie theater. The ground floor has an
enormous swimming pool with a wave machine, where Kim
likes to use a body board fitted with a small motor. When in
2006 the United States placed sanctions on North Korea, it
knew how to really hit the regime where it hurt. It made it
illegal to export more than sixty luxury items to North Korea,
including yachts, water scooters, racing cars, motorcycles,
DVD players, and televisions larger than twenty-nine
inches. There would be no more silk scarves, designer
fountain pens, furs, or leather luggage. These were exactly
the items collected by Kim and his Communist Party elites.
One scholar used sales figures from the French company
Hennessy to estimate that Kim’s annual cognac budget
before the sanctions could have been as high as $800,000
a year.
It is impossible to understand many of the poorest
regions of the world at the end of the twentieth century
without understanding the new absolutism of the twentieth
century: communism. Marx’s vision was a system that
would generate prosperity under more humane conditions
and without inequality. Lenin and his Communist Party were
inspired by Marx, but the practice could not have been
more different from the theory. The Bolshevik Revolution of
1917 was a bloody affair, and there was no humane aspect
to it. Equality was not part of the equation, either, since the
first thing Lenin and his entourage did was to create a new
elite, themselves, at the head of the Bolshevik Party. In
doing so, they purged and murdered not only noncommunist elements, but also other communists who could
have threatened their power. But the real tragedies were
yet to come: first with the Civil War, and then under Stalin’s
collectivization and his all-too-frequent purges, which may
have killed as many as forty million people. Russian
communism was brutal, repressive, and bloody, but not
unique. The economic consequences and the human
suffering were quite typical of what happened elsewhere—
for example, in Cambodia in the 1970s under the Khmer
Rouge, in China, and in North Korea. In all cases
communism brought vicious dictatorships and widespread
human rights abuses. Beyond the human suffering and
carnage, the communist regimes all set up various types of
extractive institutions. The economic institutions, with or
without markets, were designed to extract resources from
the people, and by entirely abhorring property rights, they
often created poverty instead of prosperity. In the Soviet
case, as we saw in chapter 5, the Communist system at
first generated rapid growth, but then faltered and led to
stagnation. The consequences were much more
devastating in China under Mao, in Cambodia under the
Khmer Rouge, and in North Korea, where the Communist
economic institutions led to economic collapse and famine.
The Communist economic institutions were in turn
supported by extractive political institutions, concentrating
all power in the hands of Communist parties and
introducing no constraints on the exercise of this power.
Though these were different extractive institutions in form,
they had similar effects on the livelihoods of the people as
the extractive institutions in Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone.
KING COTTON
Cotton accounts for about 45 percent of the exports of
Uzbekistan, making it the most important crop since the
country established independence at the breakup of the
Soviet Union in 1991. Under Soviet communism all
farmland in Uzbekistan was under the control of 2,048
state-owned farms. These were broken up and the land
distributed after 1991. But that didn’t mean farmers could
act independently. Cotton was too valuable to the new
government of Uzbekistan’s first, and so far only, president,
Ismail Karimov. Instead, regulations were introduced that
determined what farmers could plant and exactly how much
they could sell it for. Cotton was a valuable export, and
farmers were paid a small fraction of world market prices
for their crop, with the government taking the rest. Nobody
would have grown cotton at the prices paid, so the
government forced them. Every farmer now has to allocate
35 percent of his land to cotton. This caused many
problems, difficulties with machinery being one. At the time
of independence, about 40 percent of the harvest was
picked by combine harvesters. After 1991, not surprisingly,
given the incentives that President Karimov’s regime
created for farmers, they were not willing to buy these or
maintain them. Recognizing the problem, Karimov came up
with a solution, in fact, a cheaper option than combine
harvesters: schoolchildren.
The cotton bolls start to ripen and are ready to be picked
in early September, at about the same time that children
return to school. Karimov issued orders to local governors
to send cotton delivery quotas to schools. In early
September the schools are emptied of 2.7 million children
(2006 figures). Teachers, instead of being instructors,
became labor recruiters. Gulnaz, a mother of two of these
children, explained what happens:
At the beginning of each school year,
approximately at the beginning of
September, the classes in school are
suspended, and instead of classes children
are sent to the cotton harvest. Nobody asks
for the consent of parents. They don’t have
weekend holidays [during the harvesting
season]. If a child is for any reason left at
home, his teacher or class curator comes
over and denounces the parents. They assign
a plan to each child, from 20 to 60 kg per day
depending on the child’s age. If a child fails to
fulfil this plan then next morning he is
lambasted in front of the whole class.
The harvest lasts for two months. Rural children lucky
enough to be assigned to farms close to home can walk or
are bused to work. Children farther away or from urban
areas have to sleep in the sheds or storehouses with the
machinery and animals. There are no toilets or kitchens.
Children have to bring their own food for lunch.
The main beneficiaries from all this forced labor are the
political elites, led by President Karimov, the de facto king
of all Uzbeki cotton. The schoolchildren are supposedly
paid for their labor, but only supposedly. In 2006, when the
world price of cotton was around $1.40 (U.S.) per kilo, the
children were paid about $0.03 for their daily quota of
twenty to sixty kilos. Probably 75 percent of the cotton
harvest is now picked by children. In the spring, school is
closed for compulsory hoeing, weeding, and transplanting.
How did it all come to this? Uzbekistan, like the other
Soviet Socialist Republics, was supposed to gain its
independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and
develop a market economy and democracy. As in many
other Soviet Republics, this is not what happened,
however. President Karimov, who began his political
career in the Communist Party of the old Soviet Union,
rising to the post of first secretary for Uzbekistan at the
opportune moment of 1989, just as the Berlin Wall was
collapsing, managed to reinvent himself as a nationalist.
With the crucial support of the security forces, in December
1991 he won Uzbekistan’s first-ever presidential election.
After taking power, he cracked down on the independent
political opposition. Opponents are now in prison or exile.
There is no free media in Uzbekistan, and no
nongovernmental organizations are allowed. The apogee of
the intensifying repression came in 2005, when possibly
750, maybe more, demonstrators were murdered by the
police and army in Andijon.
Using this command of the security forces and total
control of the media, Karimov first extended his presidential
term for five years, through a referendum, and then won
reelection for a new seven-year term in 2000, with 91.2
percent of the vote. His only opponent declared that he had
voted for Karimov! In his 2007 reelection, widely regarded
as fraudulent, he won 88 percent of the vote. Elections in
Uzbekistan are similar to those that Joseph Stalin used to
organize in the heyday of the Soviet Union. One in 1937
was famously covered by New York Times correspondent
Harold Denny, who reproduced a translation from Pravda,
the newspaper of the Communist Party, which was meant
to convey the tension and excitement of Soviet elections:
Midnight has struck. The twelfth of
December, the day of the first general, equal
and direct elections to the Supreme Soviet,
has ended. The result of the voting is about to
be announced.
The commission remains alone in its room.
It is quiet, and the lamps are shining
solemnly. Amid the general attentive and
intense expectation the chairman performs all
the necessary formalities before counting of
the ballots—checking up by list how many
voters there were and how many have voted
—and the result is 100 per cent. 100 per
cent! What election in what country for what
candidate has given a 100 per cent
response?
The main business starts now. Excitedly
the chairman inspects the seals on the
boxes. Then the members of the commission
inspect them. The seals are intact and are cut
off. The boxes are opened.
It is quiet. They sit attentively and seriously,
these election inspectors and executives.
Now it is time to open the envelopes.
Three members of the commission take
scissors. The chairman rises. The tellers
have their copybooks ready. The first
envelope is slit. All eyes are directed to it.
The chairman takes out two slips—white [for
a candidate for the Soviet of the Union] and
blue [for a candidate for the Soviet of
Nationalities]—and reads loudly and
distinctly, “Comrade Stalin.”
Instantly the solemnity is broken.
Everybody in the room jumps up and
applauds joyously and stormily for the first
ballot of the first general secret election under
the Stalinist Constitution—a ballot with the
name of the Constitution’s creator.
This mood would have captured the suspense
surrounding the reelections of Karimov, who appears an
apt pupil of Stalin when it comes to repression and political
control and seems to organize elections that compete with
those of Stalin in their surrealism.
Under Karimov, Uzbekistan is a country with very
extractive political and economic institutions. And it is poor.
Probably one-third of the people live in poverty, and the
average annual income is around $1,000. Not all the
development indicators are bad. According to World Bank
data, school enrollment is 100 percent … well, except
possibly during the cotton picking season. Literacy is also
very high, though apart from controlling all the media, the
regime also bans books and censors the Internet. While
most people are paid only a few cents a day to pick cotton,
the Karimov family and former communist cadres who
reinvented themselves after 1989 as the new economic
and political elites of Uzbekistan have become fabulously
wealthy.
The family economic interests are run by Karimov’s
daughter Gulnora, who is expected to succeed her father
as president. In a country so untransparent and secretive,
nobody knows exactly what the Karimov family controls or
how much money they earn, but the experience of the U.S.
company Interspan is indicative of what has happened in
the Uzbek economy in the last two decades. Cotton is not
the only agricultural crop; parts of the country are ideal for
growing tea, and Interspan decided to invest. By 2005 it
had taken over 30 percent of the local market, but then it
ran into trouble. Gulnora decided that the tea industry
looked economically promising. Soon Interspan’s local
personnel started to be arrested, beaten up, and tortured. It
became impossible to operate, and by August 2006 the
company had pulled out. Its assets were taken over by the
Karimov families’ rapidly expanding tea interests, at the
time representing 67 percent of the market, up from 2
percent a couple of years earlier.
Uzbekistan in many ways looks like a relic from the past,
a forgotten age. It is a country languishing under the
absolutism of a single family and the cronies surrounding
them, with an economy based on forced labor—in fact, the
forced labor of children. Except that it isn’t. It’s part of the
current mosaic of societies failing under extractive
institutions, and unfortunately it has many commonalities
with other former Soviet Socialist Republics, ranging from
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and
Turkmenistan, and reminds us that even in the twenty-first
century, extractive economic and political institutions can
take an unashamed atrociously extractive form.
KEEPING THE PLAYING FIELD AT AN ANGLE
The 1990s were a period of reform in Egypt. Since the
military coup that removed the monarchy in 1954, Egypt
had been run as a quasi-socialist society in which the
government played a central role in the economy. Many
sectors of the economy were dominated by state-owned
enterprises. Over the years, the rhetoric of socialism
lapsed, markets opened, and the private sector developed.
Yet these were not inclusive markets, but markets
controlled by the state and by a handful of businessmen
allied with the National Democratic Party (NDP), the
political party founded by President Anwar Sadat in 1978.
Businessmen became more and more involved with the
party, and the party became more and more involved with
them under the government of Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak,
who became president in 1981 following Anwar Sadat’s
assassination, ruled with the NDP until being forced from
power by popular protests and the military in February
2011, as we discussed in the Preface (this page).
Major businesspeople were appointed to key
government posts in areas closely related to their
economic interests. Rasheed Mohamed Rasheed, former
president of Unilever AMET (Africa, Middle East, and
Turkey), became minister of foreign trade and industry;
Mohamed Zoheir Wahid Garana, the owner and managing
director of Garana Travel Company, one of the largest in
Egypt, became minister of tourism; Amin Ahmed Mohamed
Osman Abaza, founder of the Nile Cotton Trade Company,
the largest cotton-exporting company in Egypt, became
minister of agriculture.
In many sectors of the economy, businessmen
persuaded the government to restrict entry through state
regulation. These sectors included the media, iron and
steel, the automotive industry, alcoholic beverages, and
cement. Each sector was very concentrated with high entry
barriers protecting the politically connected businessmen
and firms. Big businessmen close to the regime, such as
Ahmed Ezz (iron and steel), the Sawiris family (multimedia,
beverages, and telecommunications), and Mohamed
Nosseir (beverages and telecommunications) received not
only protection from the state but also government contracts
and large bank loans without needing to put up collateral.
Ahmed Ezz was both the chairman of Ezz Steel, the largest
company in the country’s steel industry, producing 70
percent of Egypt’s steel, and also a high-ranking member
of the NDP, the chairman of the People’s Assembly Budget
and Planning Committee, and a close associate of Gamal
Mubarak, one of President Mubarak’s sons.
The economic reforms of the 1990s promoted by
international financial institutions and economists were
aimed at freeing up markets and reducing the role of the
state in the economy. A key pillar of such reforms
everywhere was the privatization of state-owned assets.
Mexican privatization (this page–this page), instead of
increasing competition, simply turned state-owned
monopolies into privately owned monopolies, in the
process enriching politically connected businessmen such
as Carlos Slim. Exactly the same thing took place in Egypt.
The businesspeople connected to the regime were able to
heavily influence implementation of Egypt’s privatization
program so that it favored the wealthy business elite—or
the “whales,” as they are known locally. At the time that
privatization began, the economy was dominated by thirtytwo of these whales.
One was Ahmed Zayat, at the helm of the Luxor Group. In
1996 the government decided to privatize Al Ahram
beverages (ABC), which was the monopoly maker of beer
in Egypt. A bid came in from a consortium of the Egyptian
Finance Company, led by real estate developer Farid
Saad, along with the first venture capital company formed
in Egypt in 1995. The consortium included Fouad Sultan,
former minister of tourism, Mohamed Nosseir, and
Mohamed Ragab, another elite businessman. The group
was well connected, but not well connected enough. Its bid
of 400 million Egyptian pounds was turned down as too
low. Zayat was better connected. He didn’t have the money
to purchase ABC, so he came up with a scheme of Carlos
Slim–type ingenuity. ABC shares were floated for the first
time on the London Stock Exchange, and the Luxor Group
acquired 74.9 percent of those shares at 68.5 Egyptian
pounds per share. Three months later the shares were then
split in two, and the Luxor Group was able to sell all of them
at 52.5 pounds each, netting a 36 percent profit, with which
Zayat was able to fund the purchase of ABC for 231 million
pounds the next month. At the time, ABC was making an
annual profit of around 41.3 million Egyptian pounds and
had cash reserves of 93 million Egyptian pounds. It was
quite a bargain. In 1999 the newly privatized ABC extended
its monopoly from beer into wine by buying the privatized
national wine monopoly Gianaclis. Gianaclis was a very
profitable company, nestling behind a 3,000 percent tariff
imposed on imported wines, and it had a 70 percent profit
margin on what it sold. In 2002 the monopoly changed
hands again when Zayat sold ABC to Heineken for 1.3
billion Egyptian pounds. A 563 percent profit in five years.
Mohamed Nosseir hadn’t always been on the losing
side. In 1993 he purchased the privatized El Nasr Bottling
Company, which had the monopoly rights to bottle and sell
Coca-Cola in Egypt. Nosseir’s relations with the then-
minister of the public business sector, Atef Ebeid, allowed
him to make the purchase with little competition. Nosseir
then sold the company after two years for more than three
times the acquisition price. Another example was the move
in the late 1990s to involve the private sector in the state
cinema industry. Again political connections implied that
only two families were allowed to bid for and operate the
cinemas—one of whom was the Sawiris family.
Egypt today is a poor nation—not as poor as most
countries to the south, in sub-Saharan Africa, but still one
where around 40 percent of the population is very poor and
lives on less than two dollars a day. Ironically, as we saw
earlier (this page–this page), in the nineteenth century
Egypt was the site of an initially successful attempt at
institutional change and economic modernization under
Muhammad Ali, who did generate a period of extractive
economic growth before it was effectively annexed to the
British Empire. From the British colonial period a set of
extractive institutions emerged, and were continued by the
military after 1954. There was some economic growth and
investment in education, but the majority of the population
had few economic opportunities, while the new elite could
benefit from their connections to the government.
These extractive economic institutions were again
supported by extractive political institutions. President
Mubarak planned to begin a political dynasty, grooming his
son Gamal to replace him. His plan was cut short only by
the collapse of his extractive regime in early 2011 in the
face of widespread unrest and demonstrations during the
so-called Arab Spring. During the period when Nasser was
president, there were some inclusive aspects of economic
institutions, and the state did open up the education system
and provide some opportunities that the previous regime of
King Farouk had not. But this was an example of an
unstable combination of extractive political institutions with
some inclusivity of economic institutions.
The inevitable outcome, which came during Mubarak’s
reign, was that economic institutions became more
extractive, reflecting the distribution of political power in
society. In some sense the Arab Spring was a reaction to
this. This was true not just in Egypt but also in Tunisia.
Three decades of Tunisian growth under extractive political
institutions started to go into reverse as President Ben Ali
and his family began to prey more and more on the
economy.
WHY NATIONS FAIL
Nations fail economically because of extractive institutions.
These institutions keep poor countries poor and prevent
them from embarking on a path to economic growth. This is
true today in Africa, in places such as Zimbabwe and
Sierra Leone; in South America, in countries such as
Colombia and Argentina; in Asia, in countries such as
North Korea and Uzbekistan; and in the Middle East, in
nations such as Egypt. There are notable differences
among these countries. Some are tropical, some are in
temperate latitudes. Some were colonies of Britain; others,
of Japan, Spain, and Russia. They have very different
histories, languages, and cultures. What they all share is
extractive institutions. In all these cases the basis of these
institutions is an elite who design economic institutions in
order to enrich themselves and perpetuate their power at
the expense of the vast majority of people in society. The
different histories and social structures of the countries lead
to the differences in the nature of the elites and in the
details of the extractive institutions. But the reason why
these extractive institutions persist is always related to the
vicious circle, and the implications of these institutions in
terms of impoverishing their citizens are similar—even if
their intensity differs.
In Zimbabwe, for example, the elite comprise Robert
Mugabe and the core of ZANU-PF, who spearheaded the
anticolonial fight in the 1970s. In North Korea, they are the
clique around Kim Jong-Il and the Communist Party. In
Uzbekistan it is President Islam Karimov, his family, and his
reinvented Soviet Union–era cronies. These groups are
obviously very different, and these differences, along with
the variegated polities and economies they govern, mean
that the specific form the extractive institutions take differs.
For instance, because North Korea was created by a
communist revolution, it takes as its political model the oneparty rule of the Communist Party. Though Mugabe did
invite the North Korean military into Zimbabwe in the 1980s
to massacre his opponents in Matabeleland, such a model
for extractive political institutions is not applicable in
Zimbabwe. Instead, because of the way he came to power
in the anticolonial struggle, Mugabe had to cloak his rule
with elections, even if for a while he managed actually to
engineer a constitutionally sanctified one-party state.
In contrast, Colombia has had a long history of elections,
which emerged historically as a method for sharing power
between the Liberal and Conservative parties in the wake
of independence from Spain. Not only is the nature of elites
different, but their numbers are. In Uzbekistan, Karimov
could hijack the remnants of the Soviet state, which gave
him a strong apparatus to suppress and murder alternative
elites. In Colombia, the lack of authority of the central state
in parts of the country has naturally led to much more
fragmented elites—in fact, so much so that they sometimes
murder one another. Nevertheless, despite these
variegated elites and political institutions, these institutions
often manage to cement and reproduce the power of the
elite that created them. But sometimes the infighting they
induce leads to the collapse of the state, as in Sierra
Leone.
Just as different histories and structures mean that the
identity of elites and the details of extractive political
institutions differ, so do the details of the extractive
economic institutions that the elites set up. In North Korea,
the tools of extraction were again inherited from the
communist toolkit: the abolition of private property, staterun farms, and industry.
In Egypt, the situation was quite similar under the
avowedly socialist military regime created by Colonel
Nasser after 1952. Nasser sided with the Soviet Union in
the cold war, expropriating foreign investments, such as the
British-owned Suez Canal, and took into public ownership
much of the economy. However, the situation in Egypt in the
1950s and ’60s was very different from that in North Korea
in the 1940s. It was much easier for the North Koreans to
create a more radically communist-style economy, since
they could expropriate former Japanese assets and build
on the economic model of the Chinese Revolution.
In contrast, the Egyptian Revolution was more a coup by
a group of military officers. When Egypt changed sides in
the cold war and became pro-Western, it was therefore
relatively easy, as well as expedient, for the Egyptian
military to change from central command to crony
capitalism as a method of extraction. Even so, the better
economic performance of Egypt compared with North
Korea was a consequence of the more limited extractive
nature of Egyptian institutions. For one thing, lacking the
stifling control of the North Korean Communist Party, the
Egyptian regime had to placate its population in a way that
the North Korean regime does not. For another, even crony
capitalism generates some incentives for investment, at
least among those favored by the regime, that are totally
absent in North Korea.
Though these details are all important and interesting,
the more critical lessons are in the big picture, which
reveals that in each of these cases, extractive political
institutions have created extractive economic institutions,
transferring wealth and power toward the elite.
The intensity of extraction in these different countries
obviously varies and has important consequences for
prosperity. In Argentina, for example, the constitution and
democratic elections do not work well to promote pluralism,
but they do function much better than in Colombia. At least
the state can claim the monopoly of violence in Argentina.
Partly as a consequence, income per capita in Argentina is
double that of Colombia. The political institutions of both
countries do a much better job of restraining elites than
those in Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone, and as a result,
Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone are much poorer than
Argentina and Colombia.
The vicious circle also implies that even when extractive
institutions lead to the collapse of the state, as in Sierra
Leone and Zimbabwe, this doesn’t put a conclusive end to
the rule of these institutions. We have already seen that civil
wars and revolutions, while they may occur during critical
junctures, do not necessarily lead to institutional change.
The events in Sierra Leone since the civil war ended in
2002 vividly illustrate this possibility.
In 2007 in a democratic election, the old party of Siaka
Stevens, the APC, returned to power. Though the man who
won the presidential election, Ernest Bai Koroma, had no
association with the old APC governments, many of his
cabinet did. Two of Stevens’s sons, Bockarie and Jengo,
were even made ambassadors to the United States and
Germany. In a sense this is a more volatile version of what
we saw happen in Colombia. There the lack of state
authority in many parts of the country persists over time
because it is in the interests of part of the national political
elite to allow it to do so, but the core state institutions are
also strong enough to prevent this disorder from turning into
complete chaos. In Sierra Leone, partly because of the
more extractive nature of economic institutions and partly
because of the country’s history of highly extractive political
institutions, the society has not only suffered economically
but has also tipped between complete disorder and some
sort of order. Still, the long-run effect is the same: the state
all but remains absent, and institutions are extractive.
In all these cases there has been a long history of
extractive institutions since at least the nineteenth century.
Each country is trapped in a vicious circle. In Colombia and
Argentina, they are rooted in the institutions of Spanish
colonial rule (this page–this page). Zimbabwe and Sierra
Leone originated in British colonial regimes set up in the
late nineteenth century. In Sierra Leone, in the absence of
white settlers, these regimes built extensively on
precolonial extractive structures of political power and
intensified them. These structures themselves were the
outcome of a long vicious circle that featured lack of
political centralization and the disastrous effects of the
slave trade. In Zimbabwe, there was much more of a
construction of a new form of extractive institutions,
because the British South Africa Company created a dual
economy. Uzbekistan could take over the extractive
institutions of the Soviet Union and, like Egypt, modify them
into crony capitalism. The Soviet Union’s extractive
institutions themselves were in many ways a continuation of
those of the tsarist regime, again in a pattern predicated on
the iron law of oligarchy. As these various vicious circles
played out in different parts of the world over the past 250
years, world inequality emerged, and persists.
The solution to the economic and political failure of
nations today is to transform their extractive institutions
toward inclusive ones. The vicious circle means that this is
not easy. But it is not impossible, and the iron law of
oligarchy is not inevitable. Either some preexisting inclusive
elements in institutions, or the presence of broad coalitions
leading the fight against the existing regime, or just the
contingent nature of history, can break vicious circles. Just
like the civil war in Sierra Leone, the Glorious Revolution in
1688 was a struggle for power. But it was a struggle of a
very different nature than the civil war in Sierra Leone.
Conceivably some in Parliament fighting to remove James
II in the wake of the Glorious Revolution imagined
themselves playing the role of the new absolutist, as Oliver
Cromwell did after the English Civil War. But the fact that
Parliament was already powerful and made up of a broad
coalition consisting of different economic interests and
different points of view made the iron law of oligarchy less
likely to apply in 1688. And it was helped by the fact that
luck was on the side of Parliament against James II. In the
next chapter, we will see other examples of countries that
have managed to break the mold and transform their
institutions for the better, even after a long history of
extractive institutions.
14.
BREAKING THE MOLD
THREE AFRICAN CHIEFS
ON SEPTEMBER 6, 1895, the ocean liner Tantallon Castle
docked at Plymouth on the southern coast of England.
Three African chiefs, Khama of the Ngwato, Bathoen of the
Ngwaketse, and Sebele of the Kwena, disembarked and
took the 8:10 express train to Paddington Station, London.
The three chiefs had come to Britain on a mission: to save
their and five other Tswana states from Cecil Rhodes. The
Ngwato, Ngwaketse, and Kwena were three of the eight
Tswana states comprising what was then known as
Bechuanaland, which would become Botswana after
independence in 1966.
The tribes had been trading with Europeans for most of
the nineteenth century. In the 1840s, the famous Scottish
missionary David Livingstone had traveled extensively in
Bechuanaland and converted King Sechele of the Kwena
to Christianity. The first translation of the Bible into an
African language was in Setswana, the language of the
Tswana. In 1885 Britain had declared Bechuanaland a
protectorate. The Tswana were content with the
arrangement, as they thought this would bring them
protection from further European invasions, particularly
from the Boers, with whom they had been clashing since
the Great Trek in 1835, a migration of thousands of Boers
into the interior to escape from British colonialism. The
British, on the other hand, wanted control of the area to
block both further expansions by the Boers (this page–this
page) and possible expansions by Germans, who had
annexed the area of southwest Africa corresponding to
today’s Namibia. The British did not think that a full-scale
colonization was worthwhile. The high commissioner Rey
summarized the attitudes of the British government in 1885
clearly: “We have no interest in the country to the north of
the Molope [the Bechuanaland protectorate], except as a
road to the interior; we might therefore confine ourselves for
the present to preventing that part of the Protectorate being
occupied by either filibusters or foreign powers doing as
little in the way of administration or settlement as possible.”
But things changed for the Tswana in 1889 when Cecil
Rhodes’s British South Africa Company started expanding
north out of South Africa, expropriating great swaths of land
that would eventually become Northern and Southern
Rhodesia, now Zambia and Zimbabwe. By 1895, the year
of the three chiefs’ visit to London, Rhodes had his eye on
territories to the southwest of Rhodesia, Bechuanaland.
The chiefs knew that only disaster and exploitation lay
ahead for territories if they fell under the control of Rhodes.
Though it was impossible for them to defeat Rhodes
militarily, they were determined to fight him any way they
could. They decided to opt for the lesser of two evils:
greater control by the British rather than annexation by
Rhodes. With the help of the London Missionary Society,
they traveled to London to try to persuade Queen Victoria
and Joseph Chamberlain, then colonial secretary, to take
greater control of Bechuanaland and protect it from
Rhodes.
On September 11, 1895, they had their first meeting with
Chamberlain. Sebele spoke first, then Bathoen, and finally
Khama. Chamberlain declared that he would consider
imposing British control to protect the tribes from Rhodes.
In the meantime, the chiefs quickly embarked on a
nationwide speaking tour to drum up popular support for
their requests. They visited and spoke at Windsor and
Reading, close to London; in Southampton on the south
coast; and in Leicester and Birmingham, in Chamberlain’s
political support base, the Midlands. They went north to
industrial Yorkshire, to Sheffield, Leeds, Halifax, and
Bradford; they also went west to Bristol and then up to
Manchester and Liverpool.
Meanwhile, back in South Africa, Cecil Rhodes was
making preparations for what would become the disastrous
Jameson Raid, an armed assault on the Boer Republic of
the Transvaal, despite Chamberlain’s strong objections.
These events likely made Chamberlain much more
sympathetic to the chiefs’ plight than he might have been
otherwise. On November 6, they met with him again in
London. The chiefs spoke through an interpreter:
Chamberlain: I will speak about the lands of
the Chiefs, and about the railway, and about
the law which is to be observed in the territory
of the Chiefs … Now let us look at the
map … We will take the land that we want for
the railway, and no more.
Khama: I say, that if Mr. Chamberlain will
take the land himself, I will be content.
Chamberlain: Then tell him that I will make
the railway myself by the eyes of one whom I
will send and I will take only as much as I
require, and will give compensation if what I
take is of value.
Khama: I would like to know how [i.e., where]
the railway will go.
Chamberlain: It shall go through his territory
but shall be fenced in, and we will take no
land.
Khama: I trust that you will do this work as for
myself, and treat me fairly in this matter.
Chamberlain: I will guard your interests.
The next day, Edward Fairfield, at the Colonial Office,
explained Chamberlain’s settlement in more detail:
Each of the three chiefs, Khama, Sebele and
Bathoen, shall have a country within which
they shall live as hitherto under the protection
of the Queen. The Queen shall appoint an
officer to reside with them. The chiefs will rule
their own people much as at present.
Rhodes’s reaction to being outmaneuvered by the three
African chiefs was predictable. He cabled to one of his
employees, saying, “I do object to being beaten by three
canting natives.”
The chiefs in fact had something valuable that they had
protected from Rhodes and would subsequently protect
from British indirect rule. By the nineteenth century, the
Tswana states had developed a core set of political
institutions. These involved both an unusual degree, by subSaharan African standards, of political centralization and
collective decision-making procedures that can even be
viewed as a nascent, primitive form of pluralism. Just as the
Magna Carta enabled the participation of barons into the
political decision-making process and put some
restrictions on the actions of the English monarchs, the
political institutions of the Tswana, in particular the kgotla,
also encouraged political participation and constrained
chiefs. The South African anthropologist Isaac Schapera
describes how the kgotla worked as follows:
all matters of tribal policy are dealt with finally
before a general assembly of the adult males
in the chief’s kgotla (council place). Such
meetings are very frequently held … among
the topics discussed … are tribal disputes,
quarrels between the chief and his relatives,
the imposition of new levies, the undertaking
of new public works, the promulgation of new
decrees by the chief … it is not unknown for
the tribal assembly to overrule the wishes of
the chief. Since anyone may speak, these
meetings enable him to ascertain the feelings
of the people generally, and provide the latter
with an opportunity of stating their
grievances. If the occasion calls for it, he and
his advisers may be taken severely to task,
for the people are seldom afraid to speak
openly and frankly.
Beyond the kgotla, the Tswana chieftaincy was not
strictly hereditary but open to any man demonstrating
significant talent and ability. Anthropologist John Comaroff
studied in detail the political history of another of the
Tswana states, the Rolong. He showed that though in
appearance the Tswana had clear rules stipulating how the
chieftancy was to be inherited, in practice these rules were
interpreted to remove bad rulers and allow talented
candidates to become chief. He showed that winning the
chieftancy was a matter of achievement, but was then
rationalized so that the successful competitor appeared to
be the rightful heir. The Tswana captured this idea with a
proverb, with a tinge of constitutional monarchy: kgosi ke
kgosi ka morafe, “The king is king by the grace of the
people.”
The Tswana chiefs continued in their attempts to
maintain their independence from Britain and preserve
their indigenous institutions after their trip to London. They
conceded the construction of railways in Bechuanaland, but
limited the intervention of the British in other aspects of
economic and political life. They were not opposed to the
construction of the railways, certainly not for the same
reasons as the Austro-Hungarian and Russian monarchs
blocked railways. They just realized that railways, like the
rest of the policies of the British, would not bring
development to Bechuanaland as long as it was under
colonial control. The early experience of Quett Masire,
president of independent Botswana from 1980 to 1998,
explains why. Masire was an enterprising farmer in the
1950s; he developed new cultivation techniques for
sorghum and found a potential customer in Vryburg Milling,
a company located across the border in South Africa. He
went to the railway station master at Lobatse in
Bechuanaland and asked to rent two rail trucks to move his
crop to Vryburg. The station master refused. Then he got a
white friend to intervene. The station master reluctantly
agreed, but quoted Masire four times the rate for whites.
Masire gave up and concluded, “It was the practice of the
whites, not just the laws prohibiting Africans from owning
freehold land or holding trading licenses that kept blacks
from developing enterprises in Bechuanaland.”
All in all, the chiefs, and the Tswana people, had been
lucky. Perhaps against all odds, they succeeded in
preventing Rhodes’s takeover. As Bechuanaland was still
marginal for the British, the establishment of indirect rule
there did not create the type of vicious circle playing out in
Sierra Leone (this page–this page). They also avoided the
kind of colonial expansion that went on in the interior of
South Africa that would turn those lands into reservoirs of
cheap labor for white miners or farmers. The early stages
of the process of colonization are a critical juncture for most
societies, a crucial period during which events that will have
important long-term consequences for their economic and
political development transpire. As we discussed in
chapter 9, most societies in sub-Saharan Africa, just as
those in South America and South Asia, witnessed the
establishment or intensification of extractive institutions
during colonization. The Tswana would instead avoid both
intense indirect rule and the far worse fate that would have
befallen them had Rhodes succeeded in annexing their
lands. This was not just blind luck, however. It was once
again a result of the interplay between the existing
institutions, shaped by the institutional drift of the Tswana
people, and the critical juncture brought about by
colonialism. The three chiefs had made their own luck by
taking the initiative and traveling to London, and they were
able to do this because they had an unusual degree of
authority, compared with other tribal leaders in subSaharan Africa, owing to the political centralization the
Tswana tribes had achieved, and perhaps they also had an
unusual degree of legitimacy, because of the modicum of
pluralism embedded in their tribal institutions.
Another critical juncture at the end of the colonial period
would be more central to the success of Botswana,
enabling it to develop inclusive institutions. By the time
Bechuanaland became independent in 1966 under the
name Botswana, the lucky success of chiefs Sebele,
Bathoen, and Khama was long in the past. In the
intervening years, the British invested little in
Bechuanaland. At independence, Botswana was one of the
poorest countries in the world; it had a total of twelve
kilometers of paved roads, twenty-two citizens who had
graduated from university, and one hundred from
secondary school. To top it all off, it was almost completely
surrounded by the white regimes of South Africa, Namibia,
and Rhodesia, all of which were hostile to independent
African countries run by blacks. It would have been on few
people’s list of countries most likely to succeed. Yet over
the next forty-five years, Botswana would become one of
the fastest-growing countries in the world. Today Botswana
has the highest per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa,
and is at the same level as successful Eastern European
countries such as Estonia and Hungary, and the most
successful Latin American nations, such as Costa Rica.
How did Botswana break the mold? By quickly
developing inclusive economic and political institutions
after independence. Since then, it has been democratic,
holds regular and competitive elections, and has never
experienced civil war or military intervention. The
government set up economic institutions enforcing property
rights, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and encouraging
the development of an inclusive market economy. But of
course, the more challenging question is, how did
Botswana manage to establish a stable democracy and
pluralistic institutions, and choose inclusive economic
institutions, while most other African countries did the
opposite? To answer this, we have to understand how a
critical juncture, this time the end of colonial rule, interacted
with Botswana’s existing institutions.
In most of sub-Saharan Africa—for example, for Sierra
Leone and Zimbabwe—independence was an opportunity
missed, accompanied by the re-creation of the same type
of extractive institutions that existed during the colonial
period. Early stages of independence would play out very
differently in Botswana, again largely because of the
background created by Tswana historical institutions. In
this, Botswana exhibited many parallels to England on the
verge of the Glorious Revolution. England had achieved
rapid political centralization under the Tudors and had the
Magna Carta and the tradition of Parliament that could at
least aspire to constrain monarchs and ensure some
degree of pluralism. Botswana also had some amount of
state centralization and relatively pluralistic tribal institutions
that survived colonialism. England had a newly forming
broad coalition, consisting of Atlantic traders, industrialists,
and the commercially minded gentry, that was in favor of
well-enforced property rights. Botswana had its coalition in
favor of secure procedure rights, the Tswana chiefs, and
elites who owned the major assets in the economy, cattle.
Even though land was held communally, cattle was private
property in the Tswana states, and the elites were similarly
in favor of well-enforced property rights. All this of course is
not denying the contingent path of history. Things would
have turned out very differently in England if parliamentary
leaders and the new monarch had attempted to use the
Glorious Revolution to usurp power. Similarly, things could
have turned out very differently in Botswana, especially if it
hadn’t been so fortunate as to have leaders such as
Seretse Khama, or Quett Masire, who decided to contest
power in elections rather than subvert the electoral system,
as many postindependence leaders in sub-Saharan Africa
did.
At independence the Tswana emerged with a history of
institutions enshrining limited chieftaincy and some degree
of accountability of chiefs to the people. The Tswana were
of course not unique in Africa for having institutions like this,
but they were unique in the extent to which these institutions
survived the colonial period unscathed. British rule had
been all but absent. Bechuanaland was administered from
Mafeking, in South Africa, and it was only during the
transition to independence in the 1960s that the plans for
the capital of Gaborone were laid out. The capital and the
new structures there were not meant to expunge the
indigenous institutions, but to build on them; as Gaborone
was constructed, new kgotlas were planned along with it.
Independence was also a relatively orderly affair. The
drive for independence was led by the Botswana
Democratic Party (BDP), founded in 1960 by Quett Masire
and Seretse Khama. Khama was the grandson of King
Khama III; his given name, Seretse, means “the clay that
binds together.” It was to be an extraordinarily apt name.
Khama was the hereditary chief of the Ngwato, and most of
the Tswana chiefs and elites joined the Botswana
Democratic Party. Botswana didn’t have a marketing
board, because the British had been so uninterested in the
colony. The BDP quickly set one up in 1967, the Botswana
Meat Commission. But instead of expropriating the
ranchers and cattle owners, the Meat Commission played a
central role in developing the cattle economy; it put up
fences to control foot-and-mouth disease and promoted
exports, which would both contribute to economic
development and increase the support for inclusive
economic institutions.
Though the early growth in Botswana relied on meat
exports, things changed dramatically when diamonds were
discovered. The management of natural resources in
Botswana also differed markedly from that in other African
nations. During the colonial period, the Tswana chiefs had
attempted to block prospecting for minerals in
Bechuanaland because they knew that if Europeans
discovered precious metals or stones, their autonomy
would be over. The first big diamond discovery was under
Ngwato land, Seretse Khama’s traditional homeland.
Before the discovery was announced, Khama instigated a
change in the law so that all subsoil mineral rights were
vested in the nation, not the tribe. This ensured that
diamond wealth would not create great inequities in
Botswana. It also gave further impetus to the process of
state centralization as diamond revenues could now be
used for building a state bureaucracy and infrastructure and
for investing in education. In Sierra Leone and many other
sub-Saharan African nations, diamonds fueled conflict
between different groups and helped to sustain civil wars,
earning the label Blood Diamonds for the carnage brought
about by the wars fought over their control. In Botswana,
diamond revenues were managed for the good of the
nation.
The change in subsoil mineral rights was not the only
policy of state building that Seretse Khama’s government
implemented. Ultimately, the Chieftaincy Act of 1965
passed by the legislative assembly prior to independence,
and the Chieftaincy Amendment Act of 1970 would
continue the process of political centralization, enshrining
the power of the state and the elected president by
removing from chiefs the right to allocate land and enabling
the president to remove a chief from office if necessary.
Another facet of political centralization was the effort to
unify the country further, for example, with legislation
ensuring that only Setswana and English were to be taught
in school. Today Botswana looks like a homogenous
country, without the ethnic and linguistic fragmentation
associated with many other African nations. But this was an
outcome of the policy to have only English and a single
national language, Setswana, taught in schools to minimize
conflict between different tribes and groups within society.
The last census to ask questions about ethnicity was the
one taken in 1946, which revealed considerable
heterogeneity in Botswana. In the Ngwato reserve, for
example, only 20 percent of the population identified
themselves as pure Ngwato; though there were other
Tswana tribes present, there were also many non-Tswana
groups whose first language was not Setswana. This
underlying heterogeneity has been modulated both by the
policies of the postindependence government and by the
relatively inclusive institutions of the Tswana tribes in the
same way as heterogeneity in Britain, for example,
between the English and the Welsh, has been modulated
by the British state. The Botswanan state did the same.
Since independence, the census in Botswana has never
asked about ethnic heterogeneity, because in Botswana
everyone is Tswana.
Botswana achieved remarkable growth rates after
independence because Seretse Khama, Quett Masire, and
the Botswana Democratic Party led Botswana onto a path
of inclusive economic and political institutions. When the
diamonds came on stream in the 1970s, they did not lead
to civil war, but provided a strong fiscal base for the
government, which would use the revenues to invest in
public services. There was much less incentive to challenge
or overthrow the government and control the state. Inclusive
political institutions bred political stability and supported
inclusive economic institutions. In a pattern familiar from the
virtuous circle described in chapter 11, inclusive economic
institutions increased the viability and durability of inclusive
political institutions.
Botswana broke the mold because it was able to seize a
critical juncture, postcolonial independence, and set up
inclusive institutions. The Botswana Democratic Party and
the traditional elites, including Khama himself, did not try to
form a dictatorial regime or set up extractive institutions
that might have enriched them at the expense of society.
This was once again an outcome of the interplay between a
critical juncture and existing institutions. As we have seen,
differently from almost anywhere else in sub-Saharan
Africa, Botswana already had tribal institutions that had
achieved some amount of centralized authority and
contained important pluralistic features. Moreover, the
country had economic elites who themselves had much to
gain from secure property rights.
No less important, the contingent path of history worked
in Botswana’s favor. It was particularly lucky because
Seretse Khama and Quett Masire were not Siaka Stevens
and Robert Mugabe. The former worked hard and honestly
to build inclusive institutions on the foundations of the
Tswanas’ tribal institutions. All this made it more likely that
Botswana would succeed in taking a path toward inclusive
institutions, whereas much of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa
did not even try, or failed outright.
THE END OF THE SOUTHERN EXTRACTION
It was December 1, 1955. The city of Montgomery,
Alabama, arrest warrant lists the time that the offense
occurred as 6:06 p.m. James Blake, a bus driver, was
having trouble, he called the police, and Officers Day and
Mixon arrived on the scene. They noted in their report:
We received a call upon arrival the bus
operator said he had a colored female sitting
in the white section of the bus, and would not
move back. We … also saw her. The bus
operator signed a warrant for her. Rosa
Parks (cf) was charged with chapter 6
section 11 of the Montgomery City Code.
Rosa Parks’s offense was to sit in a section of the
Cleveland Avenue bus reserved for whites, a crime under
Alabama’s Jim Crow laws. Parks was fined ten dollars in
addition to court fees of four dollars. Rosa Parks wasn’t just
anybody. She was already the secretary of the Montgomery
chapter of the National Association for the Advancement of
Colored People, the NAACP, which had long been
struggling to change the institutions of the U.S. South. Her
arrest triggered a mass movement, the Montgomery Bus
Boycott, masterminded by Martin Luther King, Jr. By
December 3, King and other black leaders had organized
a coordinated bus boycott, convincing all black people that
they should not ride on any bus in Montgomery. The boycott
was successful and it lasted until December 20, 1956. It set
in motion a process that culminated in the U.S. Supreme
Court ruling that the laws that segregated buses in
Alabama and Montgomery were unconstitutional.
The Montgomery Bus Boycott was a key moment in the
civil rights movement in the U.S. South. This movement was
part of a series of events and changes that finally broke the
mold in the South and led to a fundamental change of
institutions. As we saw in chapter 12, after the Civil War,
southern landowning elites had managed to re-create the
extractive economic and political institutions that had
dominated the South before the Civil War. Though the
details of these institutions changed—for example, slavery
was no longer possible—the negative impact on economic
incentives and prosperity in the South was the same. The
South was notably poorer than the rest of the United States.
Starting in the 1950s, southern institutions would begin to
move the region onto a much faster growth trajectory. The
type of extractive institutions ultimately eliminated in the
U.S. South were different from the colonial institutions of
pre-independence Botswana. The type of critical juncture
that started the process of their downfall was also different
but shared several commonalities. Starting in the 1940s,
those who bore the brunt of the discrimination and the
extractive institutions in the South, people such as Rosa
Parks, started to become much better organized in their
fight against them. At the same time, the U.S. Supreme
Court and the federal government finally began to intervene
systematically to reform the extractive institutions in the
South. Thus a main factor creating a critical juncture for
change in the South was the empowerment of black
Americans there and the end of the unchallenged
domination of the southern elites.
The southern political institutions, both before the Civil
War and after, had a clear economic logic, not too different
from the South African Apartheid regime: to secure cheap
labor for the plantations. But by the 1950s, this logic
became less compelling. For one, significant mass
outmigration of blacks from the South was already under
way, a legacy of both the Great Depression and the
Second World War. In the 1940s and ’50s, this reached an
average of a hundred thousand people per year.
Meanwhile, technological innovation in agriculture, though
adopted only slowly, was reducing the dependence of the
plantation owners on cheap labor. Most labor in the
plantations was used for picking cotton. In 1950 almost all
southern cotton was still picked by hand. But the
mechanization of cotton picking was reducing the demand
for this type of work. By 1960, in the key states of Alabama,
Louisiana, and Mississippi, almost half of production had
become mechanized. Just as blacks became harder to
trap in the South, they also became no longer
indispensable for the plantation owners. There was thus
less reason for elites to fight vigorously to maintain the old
extractive economic institutions. This did not mean that they
would accept the changes in institutions willingly, however.
Instead, a protracted conflict ensued. An unusual coalition,
between southern blacks and the inclusive federal
institutions of the United States, created a powerful force
away from southern extraction and toward equal political
and civil rights for southern blacks, which would finally
remove the significant barriers to economic growth in the
U.S. South.
The most important impetus for change came from the
civil rights movement. It was the empowerment of blacks in
the South that led the way, as in Montgomery, by
challenging extractive institutions around them, by
demanding their rights, and by protesting and mobilizing in
order to obtain them. But they weren’t alone in this,
because the U.S. South was not a separate country and the
southern elites did not have free rein as did Guatemalan
elites, for example. As part of the United States of America,
the South was subject to the U.S. Constitution and federal
legislation. The cause for fundamental reform in the South
would finally receive support from the U.S. executive,
legislature, and Supreme Court partly because the civil
rights movement was able to have its voice heard outside
the South, thereby mobilizing the federal government.
Federal intervention to change the institutions in the
South started with the decision of the Supreme Court in
1944 that primary elections where only white people could
stand were unconstitutional. As we have seen, blacks had
been politically disenfranchised in the 1890s with the use of
poll taxes and literacy tests (this page–this page). These
tests were routinely manipulated to discriminate against
black people, while still allowing poor and illiterate whites to
vote. In a famous example from the early 1960s, in
Louisiana a white applicant was judged literate after giving
the answer “FRDUM FOOF SPETGH” to a question about
the state constitution. The Supreme Court decision in 1944
was the opening salvo in the longer battle to open up the
political system to blacks, and the Court understood the
importance of loosening white control of political parties.
That decision was followed by Brown v. Board of
Education in 1954, in which the Supreme Court ruled that
state-mandated segregation of schools and other public
sites was unconstitutional. In 1962 the Court knocked away
another pillar of the political dominance of white elites:
legislative malapportionment. When a legislature is
malapportioned—as were the “rotten boroughs” in England
before the First Reform Act—some areas or regions
receive much greater representation than they should
based on their share of the relevant population.
Malapportionment in the South meant that the rural areas,
the heartland of the southern planter elite, were heavily
overrepresented relative to urban areas. The Supreme
Court put an end to this in 1962 with its decision in the
Baker v. Carr case, which introduced the “one-person, onevote” standard.
But all the rulings from the Supreme Court would have
amounted to little if they hadn’t been implemented. In the
1890s, in fact, federal legislation enfranchising southern
blacks was not implemented, because local law
enforcement was under the control of the southern elite and
the Democratic Party, and the federal government was
happy to go along with this state of affairs. But as blacks
started rising up against the southern elite, this bastion of
support for Jim Crow crumbled, and the Democratic Party,
led by its non-southern elements, turned against racial
segregation. The renegade southern Democrats regrouped
under the banner of the States’ Rights Democratic Party
and competed in the 1948 presidential election. Their
candidate, Strom Thurmond, carried four states and gained
thirty-nine votes in the Electoral College. But this was a far
cry from the power of the unified Democratic Party in
national politics and the capture of that party by the
southern elites. Strom Thurmond’s campaign was centered
on his challenge to the ability of the federal government to
intervene in the institutions of the South. He stated his
position forcefully: “I wanna tell you, ladies and gentlemen,
that there’s not enough troops in the army to force the
Southern people to break down segregation and admit the
nigra race into our theaters, into our swimming pools, into
our homes, and into our churches.”
He would be proved wrong. The rulings of the Supreme
Court meant that southern educational facilities had to be
desegregated, including the University of Mississippi in
Oxford. In 1962, after a long legal battle, federal courts
ruled that James Meredith, a young black air force veteran,
had to be admitted to “Ole Miss.” Opposition to the
implementation of this ruling was orchestrated by the socalled Citizens’ Councils, the first of which had been
formed in Indianola, Mississippi, in 1954 to fight
desegregation of the South. State governor Ross Barnett
publicly rejected the court-ordered desegregation on
television on September 13, announcing that state
universities would close before they agreed to be
desegregated. Finally, after much negotiation between
Barnett and President John Kennedy and Attorney General
Robert Kennedy in Washington, the federal government
intervened forcibly to implement this ruling. A day was set
when U.S. marshals would bring Meredith to Oxford. In
anticipation, white supremacists began to organize. On
September 30, the day before Meredith was due to
appear, U.S. marshals entered the university campus and
surrounded the main administration building. A crowd of
about 2,500 came to protest, and soon a riot broke out.
The marshals used tear gas to disperse the rioters, but
soon came under fire. By 10:00 p.m. that night, federal
troops were moved into the city to restore order. Soon
there were 20,000 troops and 11,000 National Guardsmen
in Oxford. In total, 300 people would be arrested. Meredith
decided to stay on campus, where, protected from death
threats by U.S. marshals and 300 soldiers, he eventually
graduated.
Federal legislation was pivotal in the process of
institutional reform in the South. During the passage of the
first Civil Rights Act in 1957, Strom Thurmond, then a
senator, spoke nonstop for twenty-four hours and eighteen
minutes to prevent, or at least delay, passage of the act.
During his speech he read everything from the Declaration
of Independence to various phone books. But to no avail.
The 1957 act culminated in the Civil Rights Act of 1964
outlawing a whole gamut of segregationist state legislation
and practices. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 declared the
literacy tests, poll taxes, and other methods used for
disenfranchising southern blacks to be illegal. It also
extended a great deal of federal oversight into state
elections.
The impact of all these events was a significant change
in economic and legal institutions in the South. In
Mississippi, for example, only about 5 percent of eligible
black people were voting in 1960. By 1970 this figure had
increased to 50 percent. In Alabama and South Carolina, it
went from around 10 percent in 1960 to 50 percent in 1970.
These patterns changed the nature of elections, both for
local and national offices. More important, the political
support from the dominant Democratic Party for the
extractive institutions discriminating against blacks eroded.
The way was then open for a range of changes in economic
institutions. Prior to the institutional reforms of the 1960s,
blacks had been almost entirely excluded from jobs in
textile mills. In 1960 only about 5 percent of employees in
southern textile mills were black. Civil rights legislation
stopped this discrimination. By 1970 this proportion had
increased to 15 percent; by 1990 it was at 25 percent.
Economic discrimination against blacks began to decline,
the educational opportunities for blacks improved
significantly, and the southern labor market became more
competitive. Together with inclusive institutions came more
rapid economic improvements in the South. In 1940
southern states had only about 50 percent of the level of per
capita income of the United States. This started to change
in the late 1940s and ’50s. By 1990 the gap had basically
vanished.
As in Botswana, the key in the U.S. South was the
development of inclusive political and economic
institutions. This came at the juxtaposition of the increasing
discontent among blacks suffering under southern
extractive institutions and the crumbling of the one-party
rule of the Democratic Party in the South. Once again,
existing institutions shaped the path of change. In this case,
it was pivotal that southern institutions were situated within
the inclusive federal institutions of the United States, and
this allowed southern blacks finally to mobilize the federal
government and institutions for their cause. The whole
process was also facilitated by the fact that, with the
massive outmigration of blacks from the South and the
mechanization of cotton production, economic conditions
had changed so that southern elites were less willing to put
up more of a fight.
REBIRTH IN CHINA
The Communist Party under the leadership of Mao Zedong
finally overthrew the Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, in
1949. The People’s Republic of China was proclaimed on
October 1. The political and economic institutions created
after 1949 were highly extractive. Politically, they featured
the dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party. No other
political organization has been allowed in China since then.
Until his death in 1976, Mao entirely dominated the
Communist Party and the government. Accompanying
these authoritarian, extractive political institutions were
highly extractive economic institutions. Mao immediately
nationalized land and abolished all kinds of property rights
in one fell swoop. He had landlords, as well as other
segments he deemed to be against the regime, executed.
The market economy was essentially abolished. People in
rural areas were gradually organized onto communal farms.
Money and wages were replaced by “work points,” which
could be traded for goods. Internal passports were
introduced in 1956 forbidding travel without appropriate
authorization, in order to increase political and economic
control. All industry was similarly nationalized, and Mao
launched an ambitious attempt to promote the rapid
development of industry through the use of “five-year plans,”
modeled on those in the Soviet Union.
As with all extractive institutions, Mao’s regime was
attempting to extract resources from the vast country he
was now controlling. As in the case of the government of
Sierra Leone with its marketing board, the Chinese
Communist Party had a monopoly over the sale of produce,
such as rice and grain, which was used to heavily tax
farmers. The attempts at industrialization turned into the
infamous Great Leap Forward after 1958 with the roll-out of
the second five-year plan. Mao announced that steel output
would double in a year based on small-scale “backyard”
blast furnaces. He claimed that in fifteen years, China
would catch up with British steel production. The only
problem was that there was no feasible way of meeting
these targets. To meet the plan’s goals, scrap metal had to
be found, and people would have to melt down their pots
and pans and even their agricultural implements such as
hoes and plows. Workers who ought to have been tending
the fields were making steel by destroying their plows, and
thus their future ability to feed themselves and the country.
The result was a calamitous famine in the Chinese
countryside. Though scholars debate the role of Mao’s
policy compared with the impact of droughts at the same
time, nobody doubts the central role of the Great Leap
Forward in contributing to the death of between twenty and
forty million people. We don’t know precisely how many,
because China under Mao did not collect the numbers that
would have documented the atrocities. Per capita income
fell by around one-quarter.
One consequence of the Great Leap Forward was that a
senior member of the Communist Party, Deng Xiaoping, a
very successful general during the revolution, who led an
“anti-rightist” campaign resulting in the execution of many
“enemies of the revolution,” had a change of heart. At a
conference in Guangzhou in the south of China in 1961,
Deng argued, “No matter whether the cat is black or white,
if it catches mice, it’s a good cat.” It did not matter whether
policies appeared communist or not; China needed
policies that would encourage production so that it could
feed its people.
Yet Deng was soon to suffer for his newfound practicality.
On May 16, 1966, Mao announced that the revolution was
under threat from “bourgeois” interests that were
undermining China’s communist society and wishing to recreate capitalism. In response, he announced the Great
Proletarian Cultural Revolution, usually referred to as the
Cultural Revolution. The Cultural Revolution was based on
sixteen points. The first started:
Although the bourgeoisie has been
overthrown, it is still trying to use the old
ideas, culture, and customs, and habits of the
exploiting classes to corrupt the masses,
capture their minds, and endeavor to stage a
comeback. The proletariat must do just the
opposite: it must meet head-on every
challenge of the bourgeoisie in the
ideological field and use the new ideas,
culture, customs, and habits of the proletariat
to change the mental outlook of the whole of
society. At present our objective is to struggle
against and crush those persons in authority
who are taking the capitalist road, to criticize
and repudiate the reactionary bourgeois
academic authorities and the ideology of the
bourgeoisie and all other exploiting classes
and transform education, literature, and art
and all other parts of the superstructure that
do not correspond to the socialist economic
base, so as to facilitate the consolidation and
development of the socialist system.
Soon the Cultural Revolution, just like the Great Leap
Forward, would start wrecking both the economy and many
human lives. Units of Red Guards were formed across the
country: young, enthusiastic members of the Communist
Party who were used to purge opponents of the regime.
Many people were killed, arrested, or sent into internal
exile. Mao himself retorted to concerns about the extent of
the violence, stating, “This man Hitler was even more
ferocious. The more ferocious, the better, don’t you think?
The more people you kill, the more revolutionary you are.”
Deng found himself labeled number-two capitalist
roader, was jailed in 1967, and then was exiled to Jiangxi
province in 1969, to work in a rural tractor factory. He was
rehabilitated in 1974, and Mao was persuaded by Premier
Zhou Enlai to make Deng first vice-premier. Already in
1975, Deng supervised the composition of three party
documents that would have charted a new direction had
they been adopted. They called for a revitalization of higher
education, a return to material incentives in industry and
agriculture, and the removal of “leftists” from the party. At
the time, Mao’s health was deteriorating and power was
increasingly concentrated in the hands of the very leftists
whom Deng Xiaoping wanted to remove from power.
Mao’s wife, Jiang Qing, and three of her close associates,
collectively known as the Gang of Four, had been great
supporters of the Cultural Revolution and the resulting
repression. They intended to continue using this blueprint to
run the country under the dictatorship of the Communist
Party. On April 5, a spontaneous celebration of the life of
Zhou Enlai in Tiananmen Square turned into a protest
against the government. The Gang of Four blamed Deng
for the demonstrations, and he was once more stripped of
all his positions and dismissed. Instead of achieving the
removal of the leftists, Deng found that the leftists had
removed him. After the death of Zhou Enlai, Mao had
appointed Hua Guofeng as the acting premier instead of
Deng. In the relative power vacuum of 1976, Hua was able
to accumulate a great deal of personal power.
In September there was a critical juncture: Mao died. The
Chinese Communist Party had been under Mao’s
domination, and the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural
Revolution had been largely his initiatives. With Mao gone,
there was a true power vacuum, which resulted in a struggle
between those with different visions and different beliefs
about the consequences of change. The Gang of Four
intended to continue with the policies of the Cultural
Revolution as the only way of consolidating theirs and the
Communist Party’s power. Hua Guofeng wanted to
abandon the Cultural Revolution, but he could not distance
himself too much from it, because he owed his own rise in
the party to its effects. Instead, he advocated a return to a
more balanced version of Mao’s vision, which he
encapsulated in the “Two Whatevers,” as the People’s
Daily, the newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, put
it in 1977. Hua argued, “We will resolutely uphold whatever
policy decisions Chairman Mao made, and unswervingly
follow whatever instructions Chairman Mao gave.”
Deng Xiaoping did not wish to abolish the communist
regime and replace it with inclusive markets any more than
Hua did. He, too, was part of the same group of people
brought to power by the communist revolution. But he and
his supporters thought that significant economic growth
could be achieved without endangering their political
control: they had a model of growth under extractive
political institutions that would not threaten their power,
because the Chinese people were in dire need of
improved living standards and because all meaningful
opposition to the Communist Party had been obliterated
during Mao’s reign and the Cultural Revolution. To achieve
this, they wished to repudiate not just the Cultural
Revolution but also much of the Maoist institutional legacy.
They realized that economic growth would be possible only
with significant moves toward inclusive economic
institutions. They thus wished to reform the economy and
bolster the role of market forces and incentives. They also
wanted to expand the scope for private ownership and
reduce the role of the Communist Party in society and the
administration, getting rid of such concepts as class
struggle. Deng’s group was also open to foreign investment
and international trade, and wished to pursue a much more
aggressive policy of integrating with the international
economy. Still, there were limits, and building truly inclusive
economic institutions and significantly lessening the grip
the Communist Party had on the economy weren’t even
options.
The turning point for China was Hua Guofeng’s power
and his willingness to use it against the Gang of Four.
Within a month of Mao’s death, Hua mounted a coup
against the Gang of Four, having them all arrested. He then
reinstated Deng in March 1977. There was nothing
inevitable either about this course of events or about the
next significant steps, which resulted from Hua himself
being politically outmaneuvered by Deng Xiaoping. Deng
encouraged public criticism of the Cultural Revolution and
began to fill key positions in the Communist Party at all
levels with people who, like him, had suffered during this
period. Hua could not repudiate the Cultural Revolution, and
this weakened him. He was also a comparative newcomer
to the centers of power, and he lacked the web of
connections and informal relations that Deng had built up
over many years. In a series of speeches, Deng began to
criticize Hua’s policies. In September 1978, he explicitly
attacked the Two Whatevers, noting that rather than let
whatever Mao had said determine policy, the correct
approach was to “seek truth from facts.”
Deng also brilliantly began to bring public pressure to
bear on Hua, which was reflected most powerfully in the
Democracy Wall movement in 1978, in which people
posted complaints about the country on a wall in Beijing. In
July of 1978, one of Deng’s supporters, Hu Qiaomu,
presented some basic principles of economic reform.
These included the notions that firms should be given
greater initiative and authority to make their own production
decisions. Prices should be allowed to bring supply and
demand together, rather than just being set by the
government, and the state regulation of the economy more
generally ought to be reduced. These were radical
suggestions, but Deng was gaining influence. In November
and December 1978, the Third Plenum of the Eleventh
Central Party Committee produced a breakthrough. Over
Hua’s objections, it was decided that, from then on, the
focus of the party would be not class struggle but economic
modernization. The plenum announced some tentative
experiments with a “household responsibility system” in
some provinces, which was an attempt to roll back
collective agriculture and introduce economic incentives
into farming. By the next year, the Central Committee was
acknowledging the centrality of the notion of “truth from
facts” and declaring the Cultural Revolution to have been a
great calamity for the Chinese people. Throughout this
period, Deng was securing the appointment of his own
supporters to important positions in the party, army, and
government. Though he had to move slowly against Hua’s
supporters in the Central Committee, he created parallel
bases of power. By 1980 Hua was forced to step down
from the premiership, to be replaced by Zhao Ziyang. By
1982 Hua had been removed from the Central Committee.
But Deng did not stop there. At the Twelfth Party Congress
in 1982, and then in the National Party Conference in
September 1985, he achieved an almost complete
reshuffling of the party leadership and senior cadres. In
came much younger, reform-minded people. If one
compares 1980 to 1985, then by the latter date, twenty-one
of the twenty-six members of the Politburo, eight of the
eleven members of the Communist Party secretariat, and
ten of the eighteen vice-premiers had been changed.
Now that Deng and the reformers had consummated
their political revolution and were in control of the state, they
launched a series of further changes in economic
institutions. They began in agriculture: By 1983, following
the ideas of Hu Qiaomu, the household responsibility
system, which would provide economic incentives to
farmers, was universally adopted. In 1985 the mandatory
state purchasing of grain was abandoned and replaced by
a system of more voluntary contracts. Administrative control
of agricultural prices was greatly relaxed in 1985. In the
urban economy, state enterprises were given more
autonomy, and fourteen “open cities” were identified and
given the ability to attract foreign investment.
It was the rural economy that took off first. The
introduction of incentives led to a dramatic increase in
agricultural productivity. By 1984 grain output was one-third
higher than in 1978, though fewer people were involved in
agriculture. Many had moved into employment in new rural
industries, the so-called Township Village Enterprises.
These had been allowed to grow outside the system of
state industrial planning after 1979, when it was accepted
that new firms could enter and compete with state-owned
firms. Gradually economic incentives were also introduced
into the industrial sector, in particular into the operation of
state-run enterprises, though at this stage there was no hint
at privatization, which had to wait until the mid-1990s.
The rebirth of China came with a significant move away
from one of the most extractive set of economic institutions
and toward more inclusive ones. Market incentives in
agriculture and industry, then followed by foreign investment
and technology, would set China on a path to rapid
economic growth. As we will discuss further in the next
chapter, this was growth under extractive political
institutions, even if they were not as repressive as they had
been under the Cultural Revolution and even if economic
institutions were becoming partially inclusive. All of this
should not understate the degree to which the changes in
economic institutions in China were radical. China broke
the mold, even if it did not transform its political institutions.
As in Botswana and the U.S. South, the crucial changes
came during a critical juncture—in the case of China,
following Mao’s death. They were also contingent, in fact
highly contingent, as there was nothing inevitable about the
Gang of Four losing the power struggle; and if they had not,
China would not have experienced the sustained economic
growth it has seen in the last thirty years. But the
devastation and human suffering that the Great Leap
Forward and the Cultural Revolution caused generated
sufficient demand for change that Deng Xiaoping and his
allies were able to win the political fight.
BOTSWANA, CHINA, and the U.S. South, just like the Glorious
Revolution in England, the French Revolution, and the Meiji
Restoration in Japan, are vivid illustrations that history is
not destiny. Despite the vicious circle, extractive institutions
can be replaced by inclusive ones. But it is neither
automatic nor easy. A confluence of factors, in particular a
critical juncture coupled with a broad coalition of those
pushing for reform or other propitious existing institutions,
is often necessary for a nation to make strides toward more
inclusive institutions. In addition some luck is key, because
history always unfolds in a contingent way.
15.
UNDERSTANDING PROSPERITY AND POVERTY
HISTORICAL ORIGINS
THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES in living standards around
the world. Even the poorest citizens of the United States
have incomes and access to health care, education, public
services, and economic and social opportunities that are
far superior to those available to the vast mass of people
living in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central
America. The contrast of South and North Korea, the two
Nogaleses, and the United States and Mexico reminds us
that these are relatively recent phenomena. Five hundred
years ago, Mexico, home to the Aztec state, was certainly
richer than the polities to the north, and the United States
did not pull ahead of Mexico until the nineteenth century.
The gap between the two Nogaleses is even more recent.
South and North Korea were economically, as well as
socially and culturally, indistinguishable before the country
was divided at the 38th parallel after the Second World
War. Similarly, most of the huge economic differences we
observe around us today emerged over the last two
hundred years.
Did this all need to be so? Was it historically—or
geographically or culturally or ethnically—predetermined
that Western Europe, the United States, and Japan would
become so much richer than sub-Saharan Africa, Latin
America, and China over the last two hundred years or so?
Was it inevitable that the Industrial Revolution would get
under way in the eighteenth century in Britain, and then
spread to Western Europe and Europe’s offshoots in North
America and Australasia? Is a counterfactual world where
the Glorious Revolution and the Industrial Revolution take
place in Peru, which then colonizes Western Europe and
enslaves whites, possible, or is it just a form of historical
science fiction?
To answer—in fact, even to reason about—these
questions, we need a theory of why some nations are
prosperous while others fail and are poor. This theory
needs to delineate both the factors that create and retard
prosperity and their historical origins. This book has
proposed such a theory. Any complex social phenomenon,
such as the origins of the different economic and political
trajectories of hundreds of polities around the world, likely
has a multitude of causes, making most social scientists
shun monocausal, simple, and broadly applicable theories
and instead seek different explanations for seemingly
similar outcomes emerging in different times and areas.
Instead we’ve offered a simple theory and used it to explain
the main contours of economic and political development
around the world since the Neolithic Revolution. Our choice
was motivated not by a naïve belief that such a theory could
explain everything, but by the belief that a theory should
enable us to focus on the parallels, sometimes at the
expense of abstracting from many interesting details. A
successful theory, then, does not faithfully reproduce
details, but provides a useful and empirically well-grounded
explanation for a range of processes while also clarifying
the main forces at work.
Our theory has attempted to achieve this by operating on
two levels. The first is the distinction between extractive and
inclusive economic and political institutions. The second is
our explanation for why inclusive institutions emerged in
some parts of the world and not in others. While the first
level of our theory is about an institutional interpretation of
history, the second level is about how history has shaped
institutional trajectories of nations.
Central to our theory is the link between inclusive
economic and political institutions and prosperity. Inclusive
economic institutions that enforce property rights, create a
level playing field, and encourage investments in new
technologies and skills are more conducive to economic
growth than extractive economic institutions that are
structured to extract resources from the many by the few
and that fail to protect property rights or provide incentives
for economic activity. Inclusive economic institutions are in
turn supported by, and support, inclusive political
institutions, that is, those that distribute political power
widely in a pluralistic manner and are able to achieve some
amount of political centralization so as to establish law and
order, the foundations of secure property rights, and an
inclusive market economy. Similarly, extractive economic
institutions are synergistically linked to extractive political
institutions, which concentrate power in the hands of a few,
who will then have incentives to maintain and develop
extractive economic institutions for their benefit and use the
resources they obtain to cement their hold on political
power.
These tendencies do not imply that extractive economic
and political institutions are inconsistent with economic
growth. On the contrary, every elite would, all else being
equal, like to encourage as much growth as possible in
order to have more to extract. Extractive institutions that
have achieved at least a minimal degree of political
centralization are often able to generate some amount of
growth. What is crucial, however, is that growth under
extractive institutions will not be sustained, for two key
reasons. First, sustained economic growth requires
innovation, and innovation cannot be decoupled from
creative destruction, which replaces the old with the new in
the economic realm and also destabilizes established
power relations in politics. Because elites dominating
extractive institutions fear creative destruction, they will
resist it, and any growth that germinates under extractive
institutions will be ultimately short lived. Second, the ability
of those who dominate extractive institutions to benefit
greatly at the expense of the rest of society implies that
political power under extractive institutions is highly
coveted, making many groups and individuals fight to
obtain it. As a consequence, there will be powerful forces
pushing societies under extractive institutions toward
political instability.
The synergies between extractive economic and political
institutions create a vicious circle, where extractive
institutions, once in place, tend to persist. Similarly, there is
a virtuous circle associated with inclusive economic and
political institutions. But neither the vicious nor the virtuous
circle is absolute. In fact, some nations live under inclusive
institutions today because, though extractive institutions
have been the norm in history, some societies have been
able to break the mold and transition toward inclusive
institutions. Our explanation for these transitions is
historical, but not historically predetermined. Major
institutional change, the requisite for major economic
change, takes place as a result of the interaction between
existing institutions and critical junctures. Critical junctures
are major events that disrupt the existing political and
economic balance in one or many societies, such as the
Black Death, which killed possibly as much as half the
population of most areas in Europe during the fourteenth
century; the opening of Atlantic trade routes, which created
enormous profit opportunities for many in Western Europe;
and the Industrial Revolution, which offered the potential for
rapid but also disruptive changes in the structure of
economies around the world.
Existing institutional differences among societies
themselves are a result of past institutional changes. Why
does the path of institutional change differ across
societies? The answer to this question lies in institutional
drift. In the same way that the genes of two isolated
populations of organisms will drift apart slowly because of
random mutations in the so-called process of evolutionary
or genetic drift, two otherwise similar societies will also drift
apart institutionally—albeit, again, slowly. Conflict over
income and power, and indirectly over institutions, is a
constant in all societies. This conflict often has a contingent
outcome, even if the playing field over which it transpires is
not level. The outcome of this conflict leads to institutional
drift. But this is not necessarily a cumulative process. It
does not imply that the small differences that emerge at
some point will necessarily become larger over time. On
the contrary, as our discussion of Roman Britain in chapter
6 illustrates, small differences open up, and then
disappear, and then reappear again. However, when a
critical juncture arrives, these small differences that have
emerged as a result of institutional drift may be the small
differences that matter in leading otherwise quite similar
societies to diverge radically.
We saw in chapters 7 and 8 that despite the many
similarities between England, France, and Spain, the
critical juncture of the Atlantic trade had the most
transformative impact on England because of such small
differences—the fact that because of developments during
the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, the English Crown
could not control all overseas trade, as this trade was
mostly under Crown monopoly in France and Spain. As a
result, in France and Spain, it was the monarchy and the
groups allied with it who were the main beneficiaries of the
large profits created by Atlantic trade and colonial
expansion, while in England it was groups strongly
opposed to the monarchy who gained from economic
opportunities thrown open by this critical juncture. Though
institutional drift leads to small differences, its interplay with
critical junctures leads to institutional divergence, and thus
this divergence then creates the now more major
institutional differences that the next critical juncture will
affect.
History is key, since it is historical processes that, via
institutional drift, create the differences that may become
consequential during critical junctures. Critical junctures
themselves are historical turning points. And the vicious
and virtuous circles imply that we have to study history to
understand the nature of institutional differences that have
been historically structured. Yet our theory does not imply
historical determinism—or any other kind of determinism. It
is for this reason that the answer to the question we started
with in this chapter is no: there was no historical necessity
that Peru end up so much poorer than Western Europe or
the United States.
To start with, in contrast with the geography and culture
hypotheses, Peru is not condemned to poverty because of
its geography or culture. In our theory, Peru is so much
poorer than Western Europe and the United States today
because of its institutions, and to understand the reasons
for this, we need to understand the historical process of
institutional development in Peru. As we saw in the second
chapter, five hundred years ago the Inca Empire, which
occupied contemporary Peru, was richer, more
technologically sophisticated, and more politically
centralized than the smaller polities occupying North
America. The turning point was the way in which this area
was colonized and how this contrasted with the colonization
of North America. This resulted not from a historically
predetermined process but as the contingent outcome of
several pivotal institutional developments during critical
junctures. At least three factors could have changed this
trajectory and led to very different long-run patterns.
First, institutional differences within the Americas during
the fifteenth century shaped how these areas were
colonized. North America followed a different institutional
trajectory than Peru because it was sparsely settled before
colonization and attracted European settlers who then
successfully rose up against the elite whom entities such as
the Virginia Company and the English Crown had tried to
create. In contrast, Spanish conquistadors found a
centralized, extractive state in Peru they could take over
and a large population they could put to work in mines and
plantations. There was also nothing geographically
predetermined about the lay of the land within the Americas
at the time the Europeans arrived. In the same way that the
emergence of a centralized state led by King Shyaam
among the Bushong was a result of a major institutional
innovation, or perhaps even of political revolution, as we
saw in chapter 5, the Inca civilization in Peru and the large
populations in this area resulted from major institutional
innovations. These could instead have taken place in North
America, in places such as the Mississippi Valley or even
the northeastern United States. Had this been the case,
Europeans might have encountered empty lands in the
Andes and centralized states in North America, and the
roles of Peru and the United States could have been
reversed. Europeans would then have settled in areas
around Peru, and the conflict between the majority of
settlers and the elite could have led to the creation of
inclusive institutions there instead of in North America. The
subsequent paths of economic development would then
likely have been different.
Second, the Inca Empire might have resisted European
colonialism, as Japan did when Commodore Perry’s ships
arrived in Edo Bay. Though the greater extractiveness of
the Inca Empire in contrast with Tokugawa, Japan, certainly
made a political revolution akin to the Meiji Restoration less
likely in Peru, there was no historical necessity that the Inca
completely succumb to European domination. If they had
been able to resist and even institutionally modernize in
response to the threats, the whole path of the history of the
New World, and with it the entire history of the world, could
have been different.
Third and most radically, it is not even historically or
geographically or culturally predetermined that Europeans
should have been the ones colonizing the world. It could
have been the Chinese or even the Incas. Of course, such
an outcome is impossible when we look at the world from
the vantage point of the fifteenth century, by which time
Western Europe had pulled ahead of the Americas, and
China had already turned inward. But Western Europe of
the fifteenth century was itself an outcome of a contingent
process of institutional drift punctuated by critical junctures,
and nothing about it was inevitable. Western European
powers could not have surged ahead and conquered the
world without several historic turning points. These included
the specific path that feudalism took, replacing slavery and
weakening the power of monarchs on the way; the fact that
the centuries following the turn of the first millennium in
Europe witnessed the development of independent and
commercially autonomous cities; the fact that European
monarchs were not as threatened by, and consequently did
not try to discourage, overseas trade as the Chinese
emperors did during the Ming dynasty; and the arrival of the
Black Death, which shook up the foundations of the feudal
order. If these events had transpired differently, we could be
living in a very different world today, one in which Peru
might be richer than Western Europe or the United States.
NATURALLY, THE PREDICTIVE POWER of a theory where both
small differences and contingency play key roles will be
limited. Few would have predicted in the fifteenth or even
the sixteenth centuries, let alone in the many centuries
following the fall of the Roman Empire, that the major
breakthrough toward inclusive institutions would happen in
Britain. It was only the specific process of institutional drift
and the nature of the critical juncture created by the opening
of Atlantic trade that made this possible. Neither would
many have believed in the midst of the Cultural Revolution
during the 1970s that China would soon be on a path
toward radical changes in its economic institutions and
subsequently on a breakneck growth trajectory. It is
similarly impossible to predict with any certainty what the
lay of the land will be in five hundred years. Yet these are
not shortcomings of our theory. The historical account we
have presented so far indicates that any approach based
on historical determinism—based on geography, culture, or
even other historical factors—is inadequate. Small
differences and contingency are not just part of our theory;
they are part of the shape of history.
Even if making precise predictions about which societies
will prosper relative to others is difficult, we have seen
throughout the book that our theory explains the broad
differences in the prosperity and poverty of nations around
the world fairly well. We will see in the rest of this chapter
that it also provides some guidelines as to what types of
societies are more likely to achieve economic growth over
the next several decades.
First, vicious and virtuous circles generate a lot of
persistence and sluggishness. There should be little doubt
that in fifty or even a hundred years, the United States and
Western Europe, based on their inclusive economic and
political institutions, will be richer, most likely considerably
richer, than sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central
America, or Southeast Asia. However, within these broad
patterns there will be major institutional changes in the next
century, with some countries breaking the mold and
transitioning from poor to rich.
Nations that have achieved almost no political
centralization, such as Somalia and Afghanistan, or those
that have undergone a collapse of the state, such as Haiti
did over the last several decades—long before the
massive earthquake there in 2010 led to the devastation of
the country’s infrastructure—are unlikely either to achieve
growth under extractive political institutions or to make
major changes toward inclusive institutions. Instead,
nations likely to grow over the next several decades—albeit
probably under extractive institutions—are those that have
attained some degree of political centralization. In subSaharan Africa this includes Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda,
nations with long histories of centralized states, and
Tanzania, which has managed to build such centralization,
or at least put in place some of the prerequisites for
centralization, since independence. In Latin America, it
includes Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, which have not only
achieved political centralization but also made significant
strides toward nascent pluralism. Our theory would suggest
that sustained economic growth is very unlikely in
Colombia.
Our theory also suggests that growth under extractive
political institutions, as in China, will not bring sustained
growth, and is likely to run out of steam. Beyond these
cases, there is much uncertainty. Cuba, for example, might
transition toward inclusive institutions and experience a
major economic transformation, or it may linger on under
extractive political and economic institutions. The same is
true of North Korea and Burma (Myanmar) in Asia. Thus,
while our theory provides the tools for thinking about how
institutions change and the consequences of such changes,
the nature of this change—the role of small differences and
contingency—makes more precise predictions difficult.
Even greater caution is necessary in drawing policy
recommendations from this broad account of the origins of
prosperity and poverty. In the same way that the impact of
critical junctures depends on existing institutions, how a
society will respond to the same policy intervention
depends on the institutions that are in place. Of course, our
theory is all about how nations can take steps toward
prosperity—by transforming their institutions from extractive
to inclusive. But it also makes it very clear from the outset
that there are no easy recipes for achieving such a
transition. First, the vicious circle implies that changing
institutions is much harder than it first appears. In particular,
extractive institutions can re-create themselves under
different guises, as we saw with the iron law of oligarchy in
chapter 12. Thus the fact that the extractive regime of
President Mubarak was overturned by popular protest in
February 2011 does not guarantee that Egypt will move
onto a path to more inclusive institutions. Instead extractive
institutions may re-create themselves despite the vibrant
and hopeful pro-democracy movement. Second, because
the contingent path of history implies that it is difficult to
know whether a particular interplay of critical junctures and
existing institutional differences will lead toward more
inclusive or extractive institutions, it would be heroic to
formulate general policy recommendations to encourage
change toward inclusive institutions. Nevertheless, our
theory is still useful for policy analysis, as it enables us to
recognize bad policy advice, based on either incorrect
hypotheses or inadequate understanding of how institutions
can change. In this, as in most things, avoiding the worst
mistakes is as important as—and more realistic than—
attempting to develop simple solutions. Perhaps this is
most clearly visible when we consider current policy
recommendations encouraging “authoritarian growth”
based on the successful Chinese growth experience of the
last several decades. We next explain why these policy
recommendations are misleading and why Chinese growth,
as it has unfolded so far, is just another form of growth
under extractive political institutions, unlikely to translate
into sustained economic development.
THE IRRESISTIBLE CHARM OF AUTHORITARIAN GROWTH
Dai Guofang recognized the coming urban boom in China
early on. New highways, business centers, residences, and
skyscrapers were sprawling everywhere around China in
the 1990s, and Dai thought this growth would only pick up
speed in the next decade. He reasoned that his company,
Jingsu Tieben Iron and Steel, could capture a large market
as a low-cost producer, especially compared with the
inefficient state-owned steel factories. Dai planned to build
a true steel giant, and with support from the local party
bosses in Changzhou, he started building in 2003. By
March 2004, however, the project had been stopped by
order of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, and Dai
was arrested for reasons never clearly articulated. The
authorities may have presumed that they would find some
incriminating evidence in Dai’s accounts. In the event, he
spent the next five years in jail and home detention, and
was found guilty on a minor charge in 2009. His real crime
was to start a large project that would compete with statesponsored companies and do so without the approval of
the higher-ups in the Communist Party. This was certainly
the lesson that others drew from the case.
The Communist Party’s reaction to entrepreneurs such
as Dai should not be a surprise. Chen Yun, one of Deng
Xiaoping’s closest associates and arguably the major
architect behind the early market reforms, summarized the
views of most party cadres with a “bird in a cage” analogy
for the economy: China’s economy was the bird; the party’s
control, the cage, had to be enlarged to make the bird
healthier and more dynamic, but it could not be unlocked or
removed, lest the bird fly away. Jiang Zemin, shortly after
becoming general secretary of the Communist Party in
1989, the most powerful position in China, went even
further and summarized the party’s suspicion of
entrepreneurs by characterizing them as “self-employed
traders and peddlers [who] cheat, embezzle, bribe and
evade taxation.” Throughout the 1990s, even as foreign
investment was pouring into China and state-owned
enterprises were encouraged to expand, private
entrepreneurship was greeted with suspicion, and many
entrepreneurs were expropriated or even jailed. Jiang
Zemin’s view of entrepreneurs, though in relative decline, is
still widespread in China. In the words of a Chinese
economist, “Big state companies can get involved in huge
projects. But when private companies do so, especially in
competition with the state, then trouble comes from every
corners [sic].”
While scores of private companies are now profitably
operating in China, many elements of the economy are still
under the party’s command and protection. Journalist
Richard McGregor reports that on the desk of the head of
each of the biggest state companies in China stands a red
phone. When it rings, it is the party calling with orders on
what the company should do, where it should invest, and
what its targets will be. These giant companies are still
under the command of the party, a fact we are reminded of
when the party decides to shuffle their chief executives, fire
them, or promote them, with little explanation.
These stories of course do not deny that China has
made great strides toward inclusive economic institutions,
strides that underpin its spectacular growth rates over the
past thirty years. Most entrepreneurs have some security,
not least because they cultivate the support of local cadres
and Communist Party elites in Beijing. Most state-owned
enterprises seek profits and compete in international
markets. This is a radical change from the China of Mao.
As we saw in the previous chapter, China was first able to
grow because under Deng Xiaoping there were radical
reforms away from the most extractive economic
institutions and toward inclusive economic institutions.
Growth has continued as Chinese economic institutions
have been on a path toward greater inclusiveness, albeit at
a slow pace. China is also greatly benefiting from its large
supply of cheap labor and its access to foreign markets,
capital, and technologies.
Even if Chinese economic institutions are incomparably
more inclusive today than three decades ago, the Chinese
experience is an example of growth under extractive
political institutions. Despite the recent emphasis in China
on innovation and technology, Chinese growth is based on
the adoption of existing technologies and rapid investment,
not creative destruction. An important aspect of this is that
property rights are not entirely secure in China. Every now
and then, just like Dai, some entrepreneurs are
expropriated. Labor mobility is tightly regulated, and the
most basic of property rights, the right to sell one’s own
labor in the way one wishes, is still highly imperfect. The
extent to which economic institutions are still far from being
truly inclusive is illustrated by the fact that only a few
businessmen and -women would even venture into any
activity without the support of the local party cadre or, even
more important, of Beijing. The connection between
business and the party is highly lucrative for both.
Businesses supported by the party receive contracts on
favorable terms, can evict ordinary people to expropriate
their land, and violate laws and regulations with impunity.
Those who stand in the path of this business plan will be
trampled and can even be jailed or murdered.
The all-too-present weight of the Communist Party and
extractive institutions in China remind us of the many
similarities between Soviet growth in the 1950s and ’60s
and Chinese growth today, though there are also notable
differences. The Soviet Union achieved growth under
extractive economic institutions and extractive political
institutions because it forcibly allocated resources toward
industry under a centralized command structure, particularly
armaments and heavy industry. Such growth was feasible
partly because there was a lot of catching up to be done.
Growth under extractive institutions is easier when creative
destruction is not a necessity. Chinese economic
institutions are certainly more inclusive than those in the
Soviet Union, but China’s political institutions are still
extractive. The Communist Party is all-powerful in China
and controls the entire state bureaucracy, the armed forces,
the media, and large parts of the economy. Chinese people
have few political freedoms and very little participation in
the political process.
Many have long believed that growth in China would
bring democracy and greater pluralism. There was a real
sense in 1989 that the Tiananmen Square demonstrations
would lead to greater opening and perhaps even the
collapse of the communist regime. But tanks were
unleashed on the demonstrators, and instead of a peaceful
revolution, history books now call it the Tiananmen Square
Massacre. In many ways, Chinese political institutions
became more extractive in the aftermath of Tiananmen;
reformers such as Zhao Ziyang, who as general secretary
of the Communist Party lent his support to the students in
Tiananmen Square, were purged, and the party clamped
down on civil liberties and press freedom with greater zeal.
Zhao Ziyang was put under house arrest for more than
fifteen years, and his public record was gradually erased,
so that he would not be even a symbol for those who
supported political change.
Today the party’s control over the media, including the
Internet, is unprecedented. Much of this is achieved through
self-censorship: media outlets know that they should not
mention Zhao Ziyang or Liu Xiaobo, the government critic
demanding greater democratization, who is still languishing
in prison even after he was awarded the Nobel Peace
Prize. Self-censorship is supported by an Orwellian
apparatus that can monitor conversations and
communications, close Web sites and newspapers, and
even selectively block access to individual news stories on
the Internet. All of this was on display when news about
corruption charges against the son of the general secretary
of the party since 2002, Hu Jintao, broke out in 2009. The
party’s apparatus immediately sprang into action and was
not only able to prevent Chinese media from covering the
case but also managed to selectively block stories about
the case on the New York Times and Financial Times
Web sites.
Because of the party’s control over economic institutions,
the extent of creative destruction is heavily curtailed, and it
will remain so until there is radical reform in political
institutions. Just as in the Soviet Union, the Chinese
experience of growth under extractive political institutions is
greatly facilitated because there is a lot of catching up to
do. Income per capita in China is still a fraction of that in the
United States and Western Europe. Of course, Chinese
growth is considerably more diversified than Soviet growth;
it doesn’t rely on only armaments or heavy industry, and
Chinese entrepreneurs are showing a lot of ingenuity. All
the same, this growth will run out of steam unless extractive
political institutions make way for inclusive institutions. As
long as political institutions remain extractive, growth will be
inherently limited, as it has been in all other similar cases.
The Chinese experience does raise several interesting
questions about the future of Chinese growth and, more
important, the desirability and viability of authoritarian
growth. Such growth has become a popular alternative to
the “Washington consensus,” which emphasizes the
importance of market and trade liberalization and certain
forms of institutional reform for kick-starting economic
growth in many less developed parts of the world. While
part of the appeal of authoritarian growth comes as a
reaction to the Washington consensus, perhaps its greater
charm—certainly to the rulers presiding over extractive
institutions—is that it gives them free rein in maintaining
and even strengthening their hold on power and legitimizes
their extraction.
As our theory highlights, particularly in societies that have
undergone some degree of state centralization, this type of
growth under extractive institutions is possible and may
even be the most likely scenario for many nations, ranging
from Cambodia and Vietnam to Burundi, Ethiopia, and
Rwanda. But it also implies that like all examples of growth
under extractive political institutions, it will not be sustained.
In the case of China, the growth process based on catchup, import of foreign technology, and export of low-end
manufacturing products is likely to continue for a while.
Nevertheless, Chinese growth is also likely to come to an
end, particularly once China reaches the standards of living
level of a middle-income country. The most likely scenario
may be for the Chinese Communist Party and the
increasingly powerful Chinese economic elite to manage to
maintain their very tight grip on power in the next several
decades. In this case, history and our theory suggest that
growth with creative destruction and true innovation will not
arrive, and the spectacular growth rates in China will slowly
evaporate. But this outcome is far from preordained; it can
be avoided if China transitions to inclusive political
institutions before its growth under extractive institutions
reaches its limit. Nevertheless, as we will see next, there is
little reason to expect that a transition in China toward more
inclusive political institutions is likely or that it will take place
automatically and painlessly.
Even some voices within the Chinese Communist Party
are recognizing the dangers on the road ahead and are
throwing around the idea that political reform—that is, a
transition to more inclusive political institutions, to use our
terminology—is necessary. The powerful premier Wen
Jiabao has recently warned of the danger that economic
growth will be hampered unless political reform gets under
way. We think Wen’s analysis is prescient, even if some
people doubt his sincerity. But many in the West do not
agree with Wen’s pronouncements. To them, China reveals
an alternative path to sustained economic growth, one
under authoritarianism rather than inclusive economic and
political institutions. But they are wrong. We have already
seen the important salient roots of Chinese success: a
radical change in economic institutions away from rigidly
communist ones and toward institutions that provide
incentives to increase productivity and to trade. Looked at
from this perspective, there is nothing fundamentally
different about China’s experience relative to that of
countries that have managed to take steps away from
extractive and toward inclusive economic institutions, even
when this takes place under extractive political institutions,
as in the Chinese case. China has thus achieved economic
growth not thanks to its extractive political institutions, but
despite them: its successful growth experience over the last
three decades is due to a radical shift away from extractive
economic institutions and toward significantly more
inclusive economic institutions, which was made more
difficult, not easier, by the presence of highly authoritarian,
extractive political institutions.
A DIFFERENT TYPE of endorsement of authoritarian growth
recognizes its unattractive nature but claims that
authoritarianism is just a passing stage. This idea goes
back to one of the classical theories of political sociology,
the theory of modernization, formulated by Seymour Martin
Lipset. Modernization theory maintains that all societies, as
they grow, are headed toward a more modern, developed,
and civilized existence, and in particular toward
democracy. Many followers of modernization theory also
claim that, like democracy, inclusive institutions will emerge
as a by-product of the growth process. Moreover, even
though democracy is not the same as inclusive political
institutions, regular elections and relatively unencumbered
political competition are likely to bring forth the
development of inclusive political institutions. Different
versions of modernization theory also claim that an
educated workforce will naturally lead to democracy and
better institutions. In a somewhat postmodern version of
modernization theory, New York Times columnist Thomas
Friedman went so far as to suggest that once a country got
enough McDonald’s restaurants, democracy and
institutions were bound to follow. All this paints an
optimistic picture. Over the past sixty years, most countries,
even many of those with extractive institutions, have
experienced some growth, and most have witnessed
notable increases in the educational attainment of their
workforces. So, as their incomes and educational levels
continue to rise, one way or another, all other good things,
such as democracy, human rights, civil liberties, and secure
property rights, should follow.
Modernization theory has a wide following both within
and outside academia. Recent U.S. attitudes toward
China, for example, have been shaped by this theory.
George H. W. Bush summarized U.S. policy toward
Chinese democracy as “Trade freely with China and time is
on our side.” The idea was that as China traded freely with
the West, it would grow, and that growth would bring
democracy and better institutions in China, as
modernization theory predicted. Yet the rapid increase in
U.S.-China trade since the mid-1980s has done little for
Chinese democracy, and the even closer integration that is
likely to follow during the next decade will do equally little.
The attitudes of many about the future of Iraqi society and
democracy in the aftermath of the U.S.-led invasion were
similarly optimistic because of modernization theory.
Despite its disastrous economic performance under
Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iraq was not as poor in 2002
as many sub-Saharan African nations, and it had a
comparatively well-educated population, so it was believed
to be ripe ground for the development of democracy and
civil liberties, and perhaps even what we would describe as
pluralism. These hopes were quickly dashed as chaos and
civil war descended upon Iraqi society.
Modernization theory is both incorrect and unhelpful for
thinking about how to confront the major problems of
extractive institutions in failing nations. The strongest piece
of evidence in favor of modernization theory is that rich
nations are the ones that have democratic regimes,
respect civil and human rights, and enjoy functioning
markets and generally inclusive economic institutions. Yet
interpreting this association as supporting modernization
theory ignores the major effect of inclusive economic and
political institutions on economic growth. As we have
argued throughout this book, it is the societies with
inclusive institutions that have grown over the past three
hundred years and have become relatively rich today. That
this accounts for what we see around us is shown clearly if
we look at the facts slightly differently: while nations that
have built inclusive economic and political institutions over
the last several centuries have achieved sustained
economic growth, authoritarian regimes that have grown
more rapidly over the past sixty or one hundred years,
contrary to what Lipset’s modernization theory would claim,
have not become more democratic. And this is in fact not
surprising. Growth under extractive institutions is possible
precisely because it doesn’t necessarily or automatically
imply the demise of these very institutions. In fact, it is often
generated because those in control of the extractive
institutions view economic growth as not a threat but a
support to their regime, as the Chinese Communist Party
has done since the 1980s. It is also not surprising that
growth generated by increases in the value of the natural
resources of a nation, such as in Gabon, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, and Venezuela, is unlikely to lead to a fundamental
transformation of these authoritarian regimes toward
inclusive institutions.
The historical record is even less generous to
modernization theory. Many relatively prosperous nations
have succumbed to and supported repressive dictatorships
and extractive institutions. Both Germany and Japan were
among the richest and most industrialized nations in the
world in the first half of the twentieth century, and had
comparatively well-educated citizens. This did not prevent
the rise of the National Socialist Party in Germany or a
militaristic regime intent on territorial expansion via war in
Japan—making both political and economic institutions
take a sharp turn toward extractive institutions. Argentina
was also one of the richest countries in the world in the
nineteenth century, as rich as or even richer than Britain,
because it was the beneficiary of the worldwide resource
boom; it also had the most educated population in Latin
America. But democracy and pluralism were no more
successful, and were arguably less successful, in Argentina
than in much of the rest of Latin America. One coup
followed another, and as we saw in chapter 11, even
democratically elected leaders acted as rapacious
dictators. Even more recently there has been little progress
toward inclusive economic institutions, and as we saw in
chapter 13, twenty-first-century Argentinian governments
can still expropriate their citizens’ wealth with impunity.
All of this highlights several important ideas. First, growth
under authoritarian, extractive political institutions in China,
though likely to continue for a while yet, will not translate into
sustained growth, supported by truly inclusive economic
institutions and creative destruction. Second, contrary to
the claims of modernization theory, we should not count on
authoritarian growth leading to democracy or inclusive
political institutions. China, Russia, and several other
authoritarian regimes currently experiencing some growth
are likely to reach the limits of extractive growth before they
transform their political institutions in a more inclusive
direction—and in fact, probably before there is any desire
among the elite for such changes or any strong opposition
forcing them to do so. Third, authoritarian growth is neither
desirable nor viable in the long run, and thus should not
receive the endorsement of the international community as
a template for nations in Latin America, Asia, and subSaharan Africa, even if it is a path that many nations will
choose precisely because it is sometimes consistent with
the interests of the economic and political elites dominating
them.
YOU CAN’T ENGINEER PROSPERITY
Unlike the theory we have developed in this book, the
ignorance hypothesis comes readily with a suggestion
about how to “solve” the problem of poverty: if ignorance
got us here, enlightening and informing rulers and
policymakers can get us out, and we should be able to
“engineer” prosperity around the world by providing the
right advice and by convincing politicians of what is good
economics. In chapter 2, when we discussed this
hypothesis, we showed how the experience of Ghana’s
prime minister Kofi Busia in the early 1970s underscored
the fact that the main obstacle to the adoption of policies
that would reduce market failures and encourage economic
growth is not the ignorance of politicians, but the incentives
and constraints they face from the political and economic
institutions in their societies. Nevertheless, the ignorance
hypothesis still rules supreme in Western policymaking
circles, which, almost to the exclusion of anything else,
focus on how to engineer prosperity.
These engineering attempts come in two flavors. The
first, often advocated by international organizations such as
the International Monetary Fund, recognizes that poor
development is caused by bad economic policies and
institutions, and then proposes a list of improvements these
international organizations attempt to induce poor countries
to adopt. (The Washington consensus makes up one such
list.) These improvements focus on sensible things such as
macroeconomic stability and seemingly attractive
macroeconomic goals such as a reduction in the size of the
government sector, flexible exchange rates, and capital
account liberalization. They also focus on more
microeconomic goals, such as privatization, improvements
in the efficiency of public service provision, and perhaps
also suggestions as to how to improve the functioning of
the state itself by emphasizing anticorruption measures.
Though on their own many of these reforms might be
sensible, the approach of international organizations in
Washington, London, Paris, and elsewhere is still steeped
in an incorrect perspective that fails to recognize the role of
political institutions and the constraints they place on
policymaking. Attempts by international institutions to
engineer economic growth by hectoring poor countries into
adopting better policies and institutions are not successful
because they do not take place in the context of an
explanation of why bad policies and institutions are there in
the first place, except that the leaders of poor countries are
ignorant. The consequence is that the policies are not
adopted and not implemented, or are implemented in
name only.
For example, many economies around the world
ostensibly implementing such reforms, most notably in Latin
America, stagnated throughout the 1980s and ’90s. In
reality, such reforms were foisted upon these countries in
contexts where politics went on as usual. Hence, even when
reforms were adopted, their intent was subverted, or
politicians used other ways to blunt their impact. All this is
illustrated by the “implementation” of one of the key
recommendations of international institutions aimed at
achieving macroeconomic stability, central bank
independence. This recommendation either was
implemented in theory but not in practice or was
undermined by the use of other policy instruments. It was
quite sensible in principle. Many politicians around the
world were spending more than they were raising in tax
revenue and were then forcing their central banks to make
up the difference by printing money. The resulting inflation
was creating instability and uncertainty. The theory was that
independent central banks, just like the Bundesbank in
Germany, would resist political pressure and put a lid on
inflation. Zimbabwe’s president Mugabe decided to heed
international advice; he declared the Zimbabwean central
bank independent in 1995. Before this, the inflation rate in
Zimbabwe was hovering around 20 percent. By 2002 it had
reached 140 percent; by 2003, almost 600 percent; by
2007, 66,000 percent; and by 2008, 230 million percent! Of
course, in a country where the president wins the lottery
(this page–this page), it should surprise nobody that
passing a law making the central bank independent means
nothing. The governor of the Zimbabwean central bank
probably knew how his counterpart in Sierra Leone had
“fallen” from the top floor of the central bank building when
he disagreed with Siaka Stevens (this page). Independent
or not, complying with the president’s demands was the
prudent choice for his personal health, even if not for the
health of the economy. Not all countries are like Zimbabwe.
In Argentina and Colombia, central banks were also made
independent in the 1990s, and they actually did their job of
reducing inflation. But since in neither country was politics
changed, political elites could use other ways to buy votes,
maintain their interests, and reward themselves and their
followers. Since they couldn’t do this by printing money
anymore, they had to use a different way. In both countries
the introduction of central bank independence coincided
with a big expansion in government expenditures, financed
largely by borrowing.
The second approach to engineering prosperity is much
more in vogue nowadays. It recognizes that there are no
easy fixes for lifting a nation from poverty to prosperity
overnight or even in the course of a few decades. Instead, it
claims, there are many “micro-market failures” that can be
redressed with good advice, and prosperity will result if
policymakers take advantage of these opportunities—
which, again, can be achieved with the help and vision of
economists and others. Small market failures are
everywhere in poor countries, this approach claims—for
example, in their education systems, health care delivery,
and the way their markets are organized. This is
undoubtedly true. But the problem is that these small
market failures may be only the tip of the iceberg, the
symptom of deeper-rooted problems in a society
functioning under extractive institutions. Just as it is not a
coincidence that poor countries have bad macroeconomic
policies, it is not a coincidence that their educational
systems do not work well. These market failures may not be
due solely to ignorance. The policymakers and bureaucrats
who are supposed to act on well-intentioned advice may be
as much a part of the problem, and the many attempts to
rectify these inefficiencies may backfire precisely because
those in charge are not grappling with the institutional
causes of the poverty in the first place.
These problems are illustrated by intervention
engineered by the nongovernmental organization (NGO)
Seva Mandir to improve health care delivery in the state of
Rajasthan in India. The story of health care delivery in India
is one of deep-rooted inefficiency and failure. Governmentprovided health care is, at least in theory, widely available
and cheap, and the personnel are generally qualified. But
even the poorest Indians do not use government health
care facilities, opting instead for the much more expensive,
unregulated, and sometimes even deficient private
providers. This is not because of some type of irrationality:
people are unable to get any care from government
facilities, which are plagued by absenteeism. If an Indian
visited his government-run facility, not only would there be
no nurses there, but he would probably not even be able to
get in the building, because health care facilities are closed
most of the time.
In 2006 Seva Mandir, together with a group of
economists, designed an incentive scheme to encourage
nurses to turn up for work in the Udaipur district of
Rajasthan. The idea was simple: Seva Mandir introduced
time clocks that would stamp the date and time when
nurses were in the facility. Nurses were supposed to stamp
their time cards three times a day, to ensure that they
arrived on time, stayed around, and left on time. If such a
scheme worked, and increased the quality and quantity of
health care provision, it would be a strong illustration of the
theory that there were easy solutions to key problems in
development.
In the event, the intervention revealed something very
different. Shortly after the program was implemented, there
was a sharp increase in nurse attendance. But this was
very short lived. In a little more than a year, the local health
administration of the district deliberately undermined the
incentive scheme introduced by Seva Mandir.
Absenteeism was back to its usual level, yet there was a
sharp increase in “exempt days,” which meant that nurses
were not actually around—but this was officially sanctioned
by the local health administration. There was also a sharp
increase in “machine problems,” as the time clocks were
broken. But Seva Mandir was unable to replace them
because local health ministers would not cooperate.
Forcing nurses to stamp a time clock three times a day
doesn’t seem like such an innovative idea. Indeed, it is a
practice used throughout the industry, even Indian industry,
and it must have occurred to health administrators as a
potential solution to their problems. It seems unlikely, then,
that ignorance of such a simple incentive scheme was what
stopped its being used in the first place. What occurred
during the program simply confirmed this. Health
administrators sabotaged the program because they were
in cahoots with the nurses and complicit in the endemic
absenteeism problems. They did not want an incentive
scheme forcing nurses to turn up or reducing their pay if
they did not.
What this episode illustrates is a micro version of the
difficulty of implementing meaningful changes when
institutions are the cause of the problems in the first place.
In this case, it was not corrupt politicians or powerful
businesses undermining institutional reform, but rather, the
local health administration and nurses who were able to
sabotage Seva Mandir’s and the development economists’
incentive scheme. This suggests that many of the micromarket failures that are apparently easy to fix may be
illusory: the institutional structure that creates market
failures will also prevent implementation of interventions to
improve incentives at the micro level. Attempting to
engineer prosperity without confronting the root cause of
the problems—extractive institutions and the politics that
keeps them in place—is unlikely to bear fruit.
THE FAILURE OF FOREIGN AID
Following the September 11, 2001, attacks by Al Qaeda,
U.S.-led forces swiftly toppled the repressive Taliban
regime in Afghanistan, which was harboring and refusing to
hand over key members of Al Qaeda. The Bonn Agreement
of December 2001 between leaders of the former Afghan
mujahideen who had cooperated with the U.S. forces and
key members of the Afghan diaspora, including Hamid
Karzai, created a plan for the establishment of a
democratic regime. A first step was the nationwide grand
assembly, the Loya Jirga, which elected Karzai to lead the
interim government. Things were looking up for
Afghanistan. A majority of the Afghan people were longing
to leave the Taliban behind. The international community
thought that all that Afghanistan needed now was a large
infusion of foreign aid. Representatives from the United
Nations and several leading NGOs soon descended on the
capital, Kabul.
What ensued should not have been a surprise, especially
given the failure of foreign aid to poor countries and failed
states over the past five decades. Surprise or not, the usual
ritual was repeated. Scores of aid workers and their
entourages arrived in town with their own private jets,
NGOs of all sorts poured in to pursue their own agendas,
and high-level talks began between governments and
delegations from the international community. Billions of
dollars were now coming to Afghanistan. But little of it was
used for building infrastructure, schools, or other public
services essential for the development of inclusive
institutions or even for restoring law and order. While much
of the infrastructure remained in tatters, the first tranche of
the money was used to commission an airline to shuttle
around UN and other international officials. The next thing
they needed were drivers and interpreters. So they hired
the few English-speaking bureaucrats and the remaining
teachers in Afghan schools to chauffeur and chaperone
them around, paying them multiples of current Afghan
salaries. As the few skilled bureaucrats were shunted into
jobs servicing the foreign aid community, the aid flows,
rather than building infrastructure in Afghanistan, started by
undermining the Afghan state they were supposed to build
upon and strengthen.
Villagers in a remote district in the central valley of
Afghanistan heard a radio announcement about a new
multimillion-dollar program to restore shelter to their area.
After a long while, a few wooden beams, carried by the
trucking cartel of Ismail Khan, famous former warlord and
member of the Afghan government, were delivered. But
they were too big to be used for anything in the district, and
the villagers put them to the only possible use: firewood. So
what had happened to the millions of dollars promised to
the villagers? Of the promised money, 20 percent of it was
taken as UN head office costs in Geneva. The remainder
was subcontracted to an NGO, which took another 20
percent for its own head office costs in Brussels, and so on,
for another three layers, with each party taking
approximately another 20 percent of what was remaining.
The little money that reached Afghanistan was used to buy
wood from western Iran, and much of it was paid to Ismail
Khan’s trucking cartel to cover the inflated transport prices.
It was a bit of a miracle that those oversize wooden beams
even arrived in the village.
What happened in the central valley of Afghanistan is not
an isolated incident. Many studies estimate that only about
10 or at most 20 percent of aid ever reaches its target.
There are dozens of ongoing fraud investigations into
charges of UN and local officials siphoning off aid money.
But most of the waste resulting from foreign aid is not fraud,
just incompetence or even worse: simply business as usual
for aid organizations.
The Afghan experience with aid was in fact probably a
qualified success compared to others. Throughout the last
five decades, hundreds of billions of dollars have been paid
to governments around the world as “development” aid.
Much of it has been wasted in overhead and corruption, just
as in Afghanistan. Worse, a lot of it went to dictators such
as Mobutu, who depended on foreign aid from his Western
patrons both to buy support from his clients to shore up his
regime and to enrich himself. The picture in much of the
rest of sub-Saharan Africa was similar. Humanitarian aid
given for temporary relief in times of crises, for example,
most recently in Haiti and Pakistan, has certainly been
more useful, even though its delivery, too, has been marred
in similar problems.
Despite this unflattering track record of “development”
aid, foreign aid is one of the most popular policies that
Western governments, international organizations such as
the United Nations, and NGOs of different ilk recommend
as a way of combating poverty around the world. And of
course, the cycle of the failure of foreign aid repeats itself
over and over again. The idea that rich Western countries
should provide large amounts of “developmental aid” in
order to solve the problem of poverty in sub-Saharan
Africa, the Caribbean, Central America, and South Asia is
based on an incorrect understanding of what causes
poverty. Countries such as Afghanistan are poor because
of their extractive institutions—which result in lack of
property rights, law and order, or well-functioning legal
systems and the stifling dominance of national and, more
often, local elites over political and economic life. The
same institutional problems mean that foreign aid will be
ineffective, as it will be plundered and is unlikely to be
delivered where it is supposed to go. In the worst-case
scenario, it will prop up the regimes that are at the very root
of the problems of these societies. If sustained economic
growth depends on inclusive institutions, giving aid to
regimes presiding over extractive institutions cannot be the
solution. This is not to deny that, even beyond humanitarian
aid, considerable good comes out of specific aid programs
that build schools in areas where none existed before and
that pay teachers who would otherwise go unpaid. While
much of the aid community that poured into Kabul did little
to improve life for ordinary Afghans, there have also been
notable successes in building schools, particularly for girls,
who were entirely excluded from education under the
Taliban and even before.
One solution—which has recently become more popular,
partly based on the recognition that institutions have
something to do with prosperity and even the delivery of aid
—is to make aid “conditional.” According to this view,
continued foreign aid should depend on recipient
governments meeting certain conditions—for example,
liberalizing markets or moving toward democracy. The
George W. Bush administration undertook the biggest step
toward this type of conditional aid by starting the Millennium
Challenge Accounts, which made future aid payments
dependent on quantitative improvements in several
dimensions of economic and political development. But the
effectiveness of conditional aid appears no better than the
unconditional kind. Countries failing to meet these
conditions typically receive as much aid as those that do.
There is a simple reason: they have a greater need for aid
of either the developmental or humanitarian kind. And quite
predictably, conditional aid seems to have little effect on a
nation’s institutions. After all, it would have been quite
surprising for somebody such as Siaka Stevens in Sierra
Leone or Mobutu in the Congo suddenly to start dismantling
the extractive institutions on which he depended just for a
little more foreign aid. Even in sub-Saharan Africa, where
foreign aid is a significant fraction of many governments’
total budget, and even after the Millennium Challenge
Accounts, which increased the extent of conditionality, the
amount of additional foreign aid that a dictator can obtain
by undermining his own power is both small and not worth
the risk either to his continued dominance over the country
or to his life.
But all this does not imply that foreign aid, except the
humanitarian kind, should cease. Putting an end to foreign
aid is impractical and would likely lead to additional human
suffering. It is impractical because citizens of many
Western nations feel guilt and unease about the economic
and humanitarian disasters around the world, and foreign
aid makes them believe that something is being done to
combat the problems. Even if this something is not very
effective, their desire for doing it will continue, and so will
foreign aid. The enormous complex of international
organizations and NGOs will also ceaselessly demand and
mobilize resources to ensure the continuation of the status
quo. Also, it would be callous to cut the aid given to the
neediest nations. Yes, much of it is wasted. But if out of
every dollar given to aid, ten cents makes it to the poorest
people in the world, that is ten cents more than they had
before to alleviate the most abject poverty, and it might still
be better than nothing.
There are two important lessons here. First, foreign aid
is not a very effective means of dealing with the failure of
nations around the world today. Far from it. Countries need
inclusive economic and political institutions to break out of
the cycle of poverty. Foreign aid can typically do little in this
respect, and certainly not with the way that it is currently
organized. Recognizing the roots of world inequality and
poverty is important precisely so that we do not pin our
hopes on false promises. As those roots lie in institutions,
foreign aid, within the framework of given institutions in
recipient nations, will do little to spur sustained growth.
Second, since the development of inclusive economic and
political institutions is key, using the existing flows of
foreign aid at least in part to facilitate such development
would be useful. As we saw, conditionality is not the answer
here, as it requires existing rulers to make concessions.
Instead, perhaps structuring foreign aid so that its use and
administration bring groups and leaders otherwise
excluded from power into the decision-making process and
empowering a broad segment of population might be a
better prospect.
EMPOWERMENT
May 12, 1978, seemed as if it were going to be a normal
day at the Scânia truck factory in the city of São Bernardo
in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. But the workers were
restless. Strikes had been banned in Brazil since 1964,
when the military overthrew the democratic government of
President João Goulart. But news had just broken that the
government had been fixing the national inflation figures so
that the rise in the cost of living had been underestimated.
As the 7:00 a.m. shift began, workers put down their tools.
At 8:00 a.m., Gilson Menezes, a union organizer working at
the plant, called the union. The president of the São
Bernardo Metalworkers was a thirty-three-year-old activist
called Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”). By noon Lula was
at the factory. When the company asked him to persuade
the employees to go back to work, he refused.
The Scânia strike was the first in a wave of strikes that
swept across Brazil. On the face of it these were about
wages, but as Lula later noted,
I think we can’t separate economic and
political factors.… The … struggle was over
wages, but in struggling for wages, the
working class won a political victory.
The resurgence of the Brazilian labor movement was just
part of a much broader social reaction to a decade and a
half of military rule. The left-wing intellectual Fernando
Henrique Cardoso, like Lula destined to become president
of Brazil after the re-creation of democracy, argued in 1973
that democracy would be created in Brazil by the many
social groups that opposed the military coming together.
He said that what was needed was a “reactivation of civil
society … the professional associations, the trade unions,
the churches, the student organizations, the study groups
and the debating circles, the social movements”—in other
words, a broad coalition with the aim of re-creating
democracy and changing Brazilian society.
The Scânia factory heralded the formation of this
coalition. By late 1978, Lula was floating the idea of
creating a new political party, the Workers’ Party. This was
to be the party not just of trade unionists, however. Lula
insisted that it should be a party for all wage earners and
the poor in general. Here the attempts of union leaders to
organize a political platform began to coalesce with the
many social movements that were springing up. On August
18, 1979, a meeting was held in São Paulo to discuss the
formation of the Workers’ Party, which brought together
former opposition politicians, union leaders, students,
intellectuals, and people representing one hundred diverse
social movements that had begun to organize in the 1970s
across Brazil. The Workers’ Party, launched at the São
Judas Tadeo restaurant in São Bernardo in October 1979,
would come to represent all these diverse groups.
The party quickly began to benefit from the political
opening that the military was reluctantly organizing. In the
local elections of 1982, it ran candidates for the first time,
and won two races for mayor. Throughout the 1980s, as
democracy was gradually re-created in Brazil, the Workers’
Party began to take over more and more local
governments. By 1988 it controlled the governments in
thirty-six municipalities, including large cities such as São
Paulo and Porto Alegre. In 1989, in the first free
presidential elections since the military coup, Lula won 16
percent of the vote in the first round as the party’s
candidate. In the runoff race with Fernando Collor, he won
44 percent.
In taking over many local governments, something that
accelerated in the 1990s, the Workers’ Party began to
enter into a symbiotic relationship with many local social
movements. In Porto Alegre the first Workers’ Party
administration after 1988 introduced “participatory
budgeting,” which was a mechanism for bringing ordinary
citizens into the formulation of the spending priorities of the
city. It created a system that has become a world model for
local government accountability and responsiveness, and it
went along with huge improvements in public service
provision and the quality of life in the city. The successful
governance structure of the party at the local level mapped
into greater political mobilization and success at the
national level. Though Lula was defeated by Fernando
Henrique Cardoso in the presidential elections of 1994 and
1998, he was elected president of Brazil in 2002. The
Workers’ Party has been in power ever since.
The formation of a broad coalition in Brazil as a result of
the coming together of diverse social movements and
organized labor has had a remarkable impact on the
Brazilian economy. Since 1990 economic growth has been
rapid, with the proportion of the population in poverty falling
from 45 percent to 30 percent in 2006. Inequality, which
rose rapidly under the military, has fallen sharply,
particularly after the Workers’ Party took power, and there
has been a huge expansion of education, with the average
years of schooling of the population increasing from six in
1995 to eight in 2006. Brazil has now become part of the
BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), the first
Latin American country actually to have weight in
international diplomatic circles.
THE RISE OF BRAZIL since the 1970s was not engineered by
economists of international institutions instructing Brazilian
policymakers on how to design better policies or avoid
market failures. It was not achieved with injections of
foreign aid. It was not the natural outcome of modernization.
Rather, it was the consequence of diverse groups of
people courageously building inclusive institutions.
Eventually these led to more inclusive economic
institutions. But the Brazilian transformation, like that of
England in the seventeenth century, began with the creation
of inclusive political institutions. But how can society build
inclusive political institutions?
History, as we have seen, is littered with examples of
reform movements that succumbed to the iron law of
oligarchy and replaced one set of extractive institutions with
even more pernicious ones. We have seen that England in
1688, France in 1789, and Japan during the Meiji
Restoration of 1868 started the process of forging inclusive
political institutions with a political revolution. But such
political revolutions generally create much destruction and
hardship, and their success is far from certain. The
Bolshevik Revolution advertised its aim as replacing the
exploitative economic system of tsarist Russia with a more
just and efficient one that would bring freedom and
prosperity to millions of Russians. Alas, the outcome was
the opposite, and much more repressive and extractive
institutions replaced those of the government the
Bolsheviks overthrew. The experiences in China, Cuba,
and Vietnam were similar. Many noncommunist, top-down
reforms fared no better. Nasser vowed to build a modern
egalitarian society in Egypt, but this led only to Hosni
Mubarak’s corrupt regime, as we saw in chapter 13. Robert
Mugabe was viewed by many as a freedom fighter ousting
Ian Smith’s racist and highly extractive Rhodesian regime.
But Zimbabwe’s institutions became no less extractive, and
its economic performance has been even worse than
before independence.
What is common among the political revolutions that
successfully paved the way for more inclusive institutions
and the gradual institutional changes in North America, in
England in the nineteenth century, and in Botswana after
independence—which also led to significant strengthening
of inclusive political institutions—is that they succeeded in
empowering a fairly broad cross-section of society.
Pluralism, the cornerstone of inclusive political institutions,
requires political power to be widely held in society, and
starting from extractive institutions that vest power in a
narrow elite, this requires a process of empowerment. This,
as we emphasized in chapter 7, is what sets apart the
Glorious Revolution from the overthrow of one elite by
another. In the case of the Glorious Revolution, the roots of
pluralism were in the overthrow of James II by a political
revolution led by a broad coalition consisting of merchants,
industrialists, the gentry, and even many members of the
English aristocracy not allied with the Crown. As we have
seen, the Glorious Revolution was facilitated by the prior
mobilization and empowerment of a broad coalition, and
more important, it in turn led to the further empowerment of
an even broader segment of society than what came before
—even though clearly this segment was much less broad
than the entire society, and England would remain far from
a true democracy for more than another two hundred years.
The factors leading to the emergence of inclusive
institutions in the North American colonies were also
similar, as we saw in the first chapter. Once again, the path
starting in Virginia, Carolina, Maryland, and Massachusetts
and leading up to the Declaration of Independence and to
the consolidation of inclusive political institutions in the
United States was one of empowerment for increasingly
broader segments in society.
The French Revolution, too, is an example of
empowerment of a broader segment of society, which rose
up against the ancien régime in France and managed to
pave the way for a more pluralistic political system. But the
French Revolution, especially the interlude of the Terror
under Robespierre, a repressive and murderous regime,
also illustrates how the process of empowerment is not
without its pitfalls. Ultimately, however, Robespierre and his
Jacobin cadres were cast aside, and the most important
inheritance from the French Revolution became not the
guillotine but the far-ranging reforms that the revolution
implemented in France and other parts of Europe.
There are many parallels between these historical
processes of empowerment and what took place in Brazil
starting in the 1970s. Though one root of the Workers’
Party is the trade union movement, right from its early days,
leaders such as Lula, along with the many intellectuals and
opposition politicians who lent their support to the party,
sought to make it into a broad coalition. These impulses
began to fuse with local social movements all over the
country, as the party took over local governments,
encouraging civic participation and causing a sort of
revolution in governance throughout the country. In Brazil, in
contrast with England in the seventeenth century or France
at the turn of the eighteenth century, there was no radical
revolution igniting the process of transforming political
institutions at one fell swoop. But the process of
empowerment that started in the factories of São Bernardo
was effective in part because it translated into fundamental
political change at the national level—for example, the
transitioning out of military rule to democracy. More
important, empowerment at the grass-roots level in Brazil
ensured that the transition to democracy corresponded to a
move toward inclusive political institutions, and thus was a
key factor in the emergence of a government committed to
the provision of public services, educational expansion,
and a truly level playing field. As we have seen, democracy
is no guarantee that there will be pluralism. The contrast of
the development of pluralistic institutions in Brazil to the
Venezuelan experience is telling in this context. Venezuela
also transitioned to democracy after 1958, but this
happened without empowerment at the grassroots level
and did not create a pluralistic distribution of political
power. Instead, corrupt politics, patronage networks, and
conflict persisted in Venezuela, and in part as a result,
when voters went to the polls, they were even willing to
support potential despots such as Hugo Chávez, most
likely because they thought he alone could stand up to the
established elites of Venezuela. In consequence,
Venezuela still languishes under extractive institutions,
while Brazil broke the mold.
WHAT CAN BE DONE to kick-start or perhaps just facilitate the
process of empowerment and thus the development of
inclusive political institutions? The honest answer of course
is that there is no recipe for building such institutions.
Naturally there are some obvious factors that would make
the process of empowerment more likely to get off the
ground. These would include the presence of some degree
of centralized order so that social movements challenging
existing regimes do not immediately descend into
lawlessness; some preexisting political institutions that
introduce a modicum of pluralism, such as the traditional
political institutions in Botswana, so that broad coalitions
can form and endure; and the presence of civil society
institutions that can coordinate the demands of the
population so that opposition movements can neither be
easily crushed by the current elites nor inevitably turn into a
vehicle for another group to take control of existing
extractive institutions. But many of these factors are
historically predetermined and change only slowly. The
Brazilian case illustrates how civil society institutions and
associated party organizations can be built from the ground
up, but this process is slow, and how successful it can be
under different circumstances is not well understood.
One other actor, or set of actors, can play a
transformative role in the process of empowerment: the
media. Empowerment of society at large is difficult to
coordinate and maintain without widespread information
about whether there are economic and political abuses by
those in power. We saw in chapter 11 the role of the media
in informing the public and coordinating their demands
against forces undermining inclusive institutions in the
United States. The media can also play a key role in
channeling the empowerment of a broad segment of
society into more durable political reforms, again as
illustrated in our discussion in chapter 11, particularly in the
context of British democratization.
Pamphlets and books informing and galvanizing people
played an important role during the Glorious Revolution in
England, the French Revolution, and the march toward
democracy in nineteenth-century Britain. Similarly, media,
particularly new forms based on advances in information
and communication technology, such as Web blogs,
anonymous chats, Facebook, and Twitter, played a central
role in Iranian opposition against Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent
election in 2009 and subsequent repression, and they
seem to be playing a similarly central role in the Arab
Spring protests that are ongoing as this manuscript is
being completed.
Authoritarian regimes are often aware of the importance
of a free media, and do their best to fight it. An extreme
illustration of this comes from Alberto Fujimori’s rule in
Peru. Though originally democratically elected, Fujimori
soon set up a dictatorial regime in Peru, mounting a coup
while still in office in 1992. Thereafter, though elections
continued, Fujimori built a corrupt regime and ruled through
repression and bribery. In this he relied heavily on his righthand man, Valdimiro Montesinos, who headed the powerful
national intelligence service of Peru. Montesinos was an
organized man, so he kept good records of how much the
administration paid different individuals to buy their loyalty,
even videotaping many actual acts of bribery. There was a
logic to this. Beyond just recordkeeping, this evidence
made sure that the accomplices were now on record and
would be considered as guilty as Fujimori and Montesinos.
After the fall of the regime, these records fell into the hands
of journalists and authorities. The amounts are revealing
about the value of the media to a dictatorship. A Supreme
Court judge was worth between $5,000 and $10,000 a
month, and politicians in the same or different parties were
paid similar amounts. But when it came to newspapers and
TV stations, the sums were in the millions. Fujimori and
Montesinos paid $9 million on one occasion and more than
$10 million on another to control TV stations. They paid
more than $1 million to a mainstream newspaper, and to
other newspapers they paid any amount between $3,000
and $8,000 per headline. Fujimori and Montesinos thought
that controlling the media was much more important than
controlling politicians and judges. One of Montesinos’s
henchmen, General Bello, summed this up in one of the
videos by stating, “If we do not control the television we do
not do anything.”
The current extractive institutions in China are also
crucially dependent on Chinese authorities’ control of the
media, which, as we have seen, has become frighteningly
sophisticated. As a Chinese commentator summarized,
“To uphold the leadership of the Party in political reform,
three principles must be followed: that the Party controls the
armed forces; the Party controls cadres; and the Party
controls the news.”
But of course a free media and new communication
technologies can help only at the margins, by providing
information and coordinating the demands and actions of
those vying for more inclusive institutions. Their help will
translate into meaningful change only when a broad
segment of society mobilizes and organizes in order to
effect political change, and does so not for sectarian
reasons or to take control of extractive institutions, but to
transform extractive institutions into more inclusive ones.
Whether such a process will get under way and open the
door to further empowerment, and ultimately to durable
political reform, will depend, as we have seen in many
different instances, on the history of economic and political
institutions, on many small differences that matter and on
the very contingent path of history.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
THIS
BOOK IS the culmination of fifteen years of
collaborative research, and along the way we have
accumulated a great deal of practical and intellectual debts.
Our greatest debt is to our long-term collaborator Simon
Johnson, who coauthored many of the key scientific papers
that shaped our understanding of comparative economic
development.
Our other coauthors, with whom we have worked on
related research projects, played a significant role in the
development of our views, and we would like to particularly
thank in this capacity Philippe Aghion, Jean-Marie Baland,
María Angélica Bautista, Davide Cantoni, Isaías Chaves,
Jonathan Conning, Melissa Dell, Georgy Egorov, Leopoldo
Fergusson, Camilo García-Jimeno, Tarek Hassan,
Sebastián Mazzuca, Jeffrey Nugent, Neil Parsons, Steve
Pincus, Pablo Querubín, Rafael Santos, Konstantin Sonin,
Davide Ticchi, Ragnar Torvik, Juan Fernando Vargas,
Thierry Verdier, Andrea Vindigni, Alex Wolitzky, Pierre
Yared, and Fabrizio Zilibotti.
Many other people played very important roles in
encouraging, challenging, and critiquing us over the years.
We would particularly like to thank Lee Alston, Abhijit
Banerjee, Robert Bates, Timothy Besley, John Coatsworth,
Jared Diamond, Richard Easterlin, Stanley Engerman,
Peter Evans, Jeff Frieden, Peter Gourevitch, Stephen
Haber, Mark Harrison, Elhanan Helpman, Peter Lindert,
Karl Ove Moene, Dani Rodrik, and Barry Weingast.
Two people played a particularly significant role in
shaping our views and encouraging our research, and we
would like to take this opportunity to express our intellectual
debt and our sincere gratitude to them: Joel Mokyr, and
Ken Sokoloff, who unfortunately passed away before this
book was written. Ken is sorely missed by us both.
We are also very grateful to the scholars who attended a
conference we organized in February 2010 on an early
version of our book manuscript at the Institute for
Quantitative Social Science at Harvard. We would
particularly like to thank the co-organizers, Jim Alt and Ken
Shepsle, and our discussants at the conference: Robert
Allen, Abhijit Banerjee, Robert Bates, Stanley Engerman,
Claudia Goldin, Elhanan Helpman, Joel Mokyr, Ian Morris,
Şevket Pamuk, Steve Pincus, and Peter Temin. We are
also grateful to Melissa Dell, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde,
Sándor László, Suresh Naidu, Roger Owen, Dan Trefler,
Michael Walton, and Noam Yuchtman, who gave us
extensive comments at the conference and at many other
times.
We are also grateful to Charles Mann, Leandro Prados
de la Escosura, and David Webster for their expert advice.
During much of the process of researching and writing
this book we were both members of the Canadian Institute
for Advanced Research’s (CIFAR) program on Institutions,
Organizations, and Growth. We presented research related
to this book many times at CIFAR meetings and have
benefited hugely from the support of this wonderful
organization and the scholars that it brings together.
We also received comments from literally hundreds of
people in various seminars and conferences on the
material developed in this book, and we apologize for
failing to attribute properly any suggestion, idea, or insight
that we got from those presentations and discussions.
We are also very grateful to María Angélica Bautista,
Melissa Dell, and Leander Heldring for their superb
research assistance on this project.
Last, but certainly not least, we have been very fortunate
to have a wonderful, insightful, and extremely supportive
editor, John Mahaney. John’s comments and suggestions
have greatly improved our book, and his support and
enthusiasm for the project made the last year and a half
much more pleasant and less taxing than it might have
been.
BIBLIOGRAPHICAL ESSAY AND SOURCES
PREFACE
Mohamed ElBaradei’s views can be found at
twitter.com/#!/ElBaradei.
Mosaab El Shami and Noha Hamed quotes are from
Yahoo! news 2/6/2011, at news.yahoo.com/s/
yblog_exclusive/20110206/ts_yblog_exclusive/
egyptian-voices-from-tahrir-square.
On the twelve immediate demands posted on Wael
Khalil’s
blog,
see
alethonews.wordpress.com/2011/02/27/egypt-reviewingthe-demands/.
Reda Metwaly is quoted on Al Jazeera, 2/1/2011, at
english.aljazeera.net/news/
middleeast/2011/02/2011212597913527.html.
CHAPTER 1 : So CLOSE AND YET SO DIFFERENT
A good discussion of the Spanish exploration of the Rio
de La Plata is Rock (1992), chap. 1. On the discovery and
colonization of the Guaraní, see Ganson (2003). The
quotations from de Sahagún are from de Sahagún (1975),
pp. 47–49. Gibson (1963) is fundamental on the Spanish
conquest of Mexico and the institutions they structured. The
quotations from de las Casas come from de las Casas
(1992), pp. 39, 117–18, and 107, respectively.
On Pizarro in Peru, see Hemming (1983). Chaps. 1–6
cover the meeting at Cajamarca and the march south and
the capture of the Inca capital, Cuzco. See Hemming
(1983), chap. 20, on de Toledo. Bakewell (1984) gives an
overview of the functioning of the Potosí mita, and Dell
(2010) provides statistical evidence that shows how it has
had persistent effects over time.
The quote from Arthur Young is reproduced from
Sheridan (1973), p. 8. There are many good books that
describe the early history of Jamestown: for example, Price
(2003), and Kupperman (2007). Our treatment is heavily
influenced by Morgan (1975) and Galenson (1996). The
quote from Anas Todkill comes from p. 38 of Todkill (1885).
The quotes from John Smith are from Price (2003), p. 77
(“Victuals …”), p. 93 (“If your king …”), and p. 96 (“When
you send …”). The Charter of Maryland, the Fundamental
Constitutions of Carolina, and other colonial constitutions
have been put on the Internet by Yale University’s Avalon
Project, at avalon.law.yale.edu/17th_century.
Bakewell (2009), chap. 14, discusses the independence
of Mexico and the constitution. See Stevens (1991) and
Knight (2011) on postindependence political instability and
presidents. Coatsworth (1978) is the seminal paper on the
evidence on economic decline in Mexico after
independence. Haber (2010) presents the comparison of
the development of banking in Mexico and the United
States. Sokoloff (1988) and Sokoloff and Khan (1990)
provide evidence on the social background of innovators in
the United States who filed patents. See Israel (2000) for a
biography of Thomas Edison. Haber, Maurer, and Razo
(2003) proposes an interpretation of the political economy
of the regime of Porfirio Díaz very much in the spirit of our
discussion. Haber, Klein, Maurer, and Middlebrook (2008)
extend this treatment of Mexico’s political economy into the
twentieth century. On the differential allocation of frontier
lands in North and Latin America, see Nugent and
Robinson (2010) and García-Jimeno and Robinson (2011).
Hu-DeHart (1984) discusses the deportation of the Yaqui
people in chap. 6. On the fortune of Carlos Slim and how it
was made, see Relea (2007) and Martinez (2002).
Our interpretation of comparative economic development
of the Americas builds on our own previous research with
Simon Johnson, particularly Acemoglu, Johnson, and
Robinson (2001, 2002), and has also been heavily
influenced by Coatsworth (1978, 2008) and Engerman and
Sokoloff (1997).
CHAPTER 2 : THEORIES THAT DON’T WORK
Jared Diamond’s views on world inequality are laid out in
his book Guns, Germs and Steel (1997). Sachs (2006)
sets out his own version of geographical determinism.
Views about culture are widely spread throughout the
academic literature but have never been brought together
in one work. Weber (2002) argued that it was the
Protestant Reformation that explained why it was Europe
that had the Industrial Revolution. Landes (1999) proposed
that Northern Europeans developed a unique set of cultural
attitudes that led them to work hard, save, and be
innovative. Harrison and Huntington, eds. (2000), is a
forceful statement of the importance of culture for
comparative economic development. The notion that there
is some sort of superior British culture or superior set of
British institutions is widespread and used to explain U.S.
exceptionalism (Fisher, 1989) and also patterns of
comparative development more generally (La Porta,
Lopez-de-Silanes, and Shleifer, 2008). The works of
Banfield (1958) and Putnam, Leonardi, and Nanetti (1994)
are very influential cultural interpretations of how one aspect
of culture, or “social capital,” as they call it, makes the south
of Italy poor. For a survey of how economists use notions of
culture, see Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales (2006).
Tabellini (2010) examines the correlation between the
extent to which people trust each other in Western Europe
and levels of annual income per capita. Nunn and
Wantchekon (2010) show how the lack of trust and social
capital in Africa is correlated with the historical intensity of
the slave trade.
The relevant history of the Kongo is presented in Hilton
(1985) and Thornton (1983). On the historical
backwardness of African technology, see the works of
Goody (1971), Law (1980), and Austen and Headrick
(1983).
The definition of economics proposed by Robbins is
from Robbins (1935), p. 16.
The quote from Abba Lerner is in Lerner (1972), p. 259.
The idea that ignorance explains comparative development
is implicit in most economic analyses of economic
development and policy reform: for example, Williamson
(1990); Perkins, Radelet, and Lindauer (2006); and Aghion
and Howitt (2009). A recent, forceful version of this view is
developed in Banerjee and Duflo (2011).
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001, 2002) provide
a statistical analysis of the relative role of institutions,
geography, and culture, showing that institutions dominate
the other two types of explanations in accounting for
differences in per capita income today.
CHAPTER 3 : THE MAKING OF PROSPERITY AND POVERTY
The reconstruction of the meeting between Hwang
Pyŏng-Wŏn and his brother is taken from James A. Foley’s
interview of Hwang transcribed in Foley (2003), pp. 197–
203.
The notion of extractive institutions originates from
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001). The terminology
of inclusive institutions was suggested to us by Tim Besley.
The terminology of economic losers and the distinction
between them and political losers comes from Acemoglu
and Robinson (2000b). The data on Barbados comes from
Dunn (1969). Our treatment of the Soviet economy relies on
Nove (1992) and Davies (1998). Allen (2003) provides an
alternative and more positive interpretation of Soviet
economic history.
In the social science literature there is a great deal of
research related to our theory and argument. See
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2005b) for an overview
of this literature and our contribution to it. The institutional
view of comparative development builds on a number of
important works. Particularly notable is the work of North;
see North and Thomas (1973), North (1982), North and
Weingast (1989), and North, Wallis, and Weingast (2009).
Olson (1984) also provided a very influential account of the
political economy of economic growth. Mokyr (1990) is a
fundamental book that links economic losers to
comparative technological change in world history. The
notion of economic losers is very widespread in social
science as an explanation for why efficient institutional and
policy outcomes do not occur. Our interpretation, which
builds on Robinson (1998) and Acemoglu and Robinson
(2000b, 2006b), differs by emphasizing the idea that the
most important barrier to the emergence of inclusive
institutions is elites’ fear that they will lose their political
power. Jones (2003) provides a rich comparative history
emphasizing similar themes, and Engerman and Sokoloff’s
(1997) important work on the Americas also emphasizes
these ideas. A seminal political economy interpretation of
African underdevelopment was developed by Bates (1981,
1983, 1989), whose work heavily influenced ours. Seminal
studies by Dalton (1965) and Killick (1978) emphasize the
role of politics in African development and particularly how
the fear of losing political power influences economic
policy. The notion of political losers was previously implicit
in other theoretical work in political economy, for instance,
Besley and Coate (1998) and Bourguignon and Verdier
(2000). The role of political centralization and state
institutions in development has been most heavily
emphasized by historical sociologists following the work by
Max Weber. Notable is the work of Mann (1986, 1993),
Migdal (1988), and Evans (1995). In Africa, work on the
connection between the state and development is
emphasized by Herbst (2000) and Bates (2001).
Economists have recently begun to contribute to this
literature; for example, Acemoglu (2005) and Besley and
Persson (2011). Finally, Johnson (1982), Haggard (1990),
Wade (1990), and Amsden (1992) emphasized how it was
the particular political economy of East Asian nations that
allowed them to be so economically successful. Finley
(1965) made a seminal argument that slavery was
responsible for the lack of technological dynamism in the
classical world.
The idea that growth under extractive institutions is
possible but is also likely to run out of steam is emphasized
in Acemoglu (2008).
CHAPTER 4 : SMALL DIFFERENCES AND CRITICAL JUNCTURES
Benedictow (2004) provides a definitive overview of the
Black Death, though his assessments of how many people
the plague killed are controversial. The quotations from
Boccaccio and Ralph of Shrewsbury are reproduced from
Horrox (1994). Hatcher (2008) provides a compelling
account of the anticipation and arrival of the plague in
England. The text of the Statute of Laborers is available
online
from
the
Avalon
Project,
at
avalon.law.yale.edu/medieval/statlab.asp
The fundamental works on the impact of the Black Death
on the divergence of Eastern and Western Europe are
North and Thomas (1973) and particularly Brenner (1976),
whose analysis of how the initial distribution of political
power affected the consequences of the plague has greatly
influenced our thinking. See DuPlessis (1997) on the
Second Serfdom in Eastern Europe. Conning (2010) and
Acemoglu and Wolitzky (2011) develop formalizations of
Brenner’s thesis. The quote from James Watt is
reproduced from Robinson (1964), pp. 223–24.
In Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2005a) we first
presented the argument that it was the interaction between
Atlantic trade and initial institutional differences that led to
the divergence of English institutions and ultimately the
Industrial Revolution. The notion of the iron law of oligarchy
is due to Michels (1962). The notion of a critical juncture
was first developed by Lipset and Rokkan (1967).
On the role of institutions in the long-run development of
the Ottoman Empire, the research of Owen (1981), Owen
and Pamuk (1999), and Pamuk (2006) is fundamental.
CHAPTER 5 : “I’VE SEEN THE FUTURE, AND IT WORKS”
On Steffens’s mission to Russia and his words to
Baruch, see Steffens (1931), chap. 18, pp. 790–802. For
the number of people who starved in the 1930s, we use the
figures of Davies and Wheatcroft (2004). On the 1937
census numbers, see Wheatcroft and Davies (1994a,
1994b). The nature of innovation in the Soviet economy is
studied in Berliner (1976). Our discussion of how Stalinism,
and particularly economic planning, really worked is based
on Gregory and Harrison (2005). On how writers of U.S.
economics textbooks continually got Soviet economic
growth wrong, see Levy and Peart (2009).
Our treatment and interpretation of the Lele and the
Bushong is based on the research of Douglas (1962,
1963) and Vansina (1978).
On the concept of the Long Summer, see Fagan (2003).
An accessible introduction to the Natufians and
archaeological sites we mention can be found in Mithen
(2006) and Barker (2006). The seminal work on Abu
Hureyra is Moore, Hillman, and Legge (2000), which
documents how sedentary life and institutional innovation
appeared prior to farming. See Smith (1998) for a general
overview of the evidence that sedentary life preceded
farming, and see Bar-Yosef and Belfer-Cohen (1992) for
the case of the Natufians. Our approach to the Neolithic
Revolution is inspired by Sahlins (1972), which also has the
anecdote about the Yir Yoront.
Our discussion of Maya history follows Martin and Grube
(2000) and Webster (2002). The reconstruction of the
population history of Copán comes from Webster, Freter,
and Gonlin (2000). The number of dated monuments is
from Sidrys and Berger (1979).
CHAPTER 6 : DRIFTING APART
The discussion of the Venetian case follows Puga and
Trefler (2010), and chaps. 8 and 9 of Lane (1973).
The material on Rome is contained in any standard
history. Our interpretation of Roman economic institutions
follows Finlay (1999) and Bang (2008). Our account of
Roman decline follows Ward-Perkins (2006) and
Goldsworthy (2009). On institutional changes in the late
Roman Empire, see Jones (1964). The anecdotes about
Tiberius and Hadrian are from Finley (1999).
The evidence from shipwrecks was first used by Hopkins
(1980). See De Callataǿ (2005) and Jongman (2007) for
an overview of this and the Greenland Ice Core Project.
The Vindolanda tablets are available online at
vindolanda.csad.ox.ac.uk/. The quote we use comes from
TVII Pub. no.: 343.
The discussion of the factors that led to the decline of
Roman Britain follows Cleary (1989), chap. 4; Faulkner
(2000), chap. 7; Dark (1994), chap. 2.
On Aksum, see Munro-Hay (1991). The seminal work on
European feudalism and its origins is Bloch (1961); see
Crummey (2000) on Ethiopian feudalism. Phillipson (1998)
makes the comparison between the collapse of Aksum and
the collapse of the Roman Empire.
CHAPTER 7 : THE TURNING POINT
The story of Lee’s machine and meeting with Queen
Elizabeth
I
is
available
at
calverton.homestead.com/willlee.html.
Allen (2009b) presents the data on real wages using
Diocletian’s Edict on Maximum Prices.
Our argument about the causes of the Industrial
Revolution is highly influenced by the arguments made in
North and Thomas (1973), North and Weingast (1989),
Brenner (1993), Pincus (2009), and Pincus and Robinson
(2010). These scholars in turn were inspired by earlier
Marxist interpretations of British institutional change and
the emergence of capitalism; see Dobb
(1963) and Hill (1961, 1980). See also Tawney’s (1941)
thesis about how the state building project of Henry VIII
changed the English social structure.
The text of the Magna Carta is available online at the
Avalon
Project,
at
avalon.law.yale.edu/medieval/magframe.asp.
Elton (1953) is the seminal work on the development of
state institutions under Henry VIII, and Neale (1971) relates
these to the evolution of parliament.
On the Peasants’ Revolt, see Hilton (2003). The quote
from Hill on monopolies is from Hill (1961), p. 25. On
Charles I’s period of “personal rule,” we follow Sharp
(1992). Our evidence on how different groups and regions
sided either for or against Parliament comes from Brunton
and Pennington (1954), Hill (1961), and Stone (2001).
Pincus (2009) is fundamental on the Glorious Revolution
and discusses many of the specific changes in policies and
economic institutions; for example, the repeal of the Hearth
Tax and the creation of the Bank of England. See also
Pincus and Robinson (2010). Pettigrew (2007, 2009)
discusses the attack on monopolies, including the Royal
African Company, and our data on petitioning comes from
his papers. Knights (2010) emphasizes the political
importance of petitioning. Our information on Hoare’s Bank
comes from Temin and Voth (2008).
Our information about Superviser Cowperthwaite and the
excise tax bureaucracy comes from Brewer (1988).
Our overview of the economic history of the Industrial
Revolution rests on Mantoux (1961), Daunton (1995), Allen
(2009a), and Mokyr (1990, 2009), who provide details on
the famous inventors and inventions we discuss. The story
about the Baldwyn family is from Bogart and Richardson
(2009, 2011), who stress the connection between the
Glorious Revolution, the reorganization of property rights,
and the construction of roads and canals. On the Calicoe
Acts and Manchester Acts, see O’Brien, Griffiths, and Hunt
(1991), which is the source of the quotes from the
legislation. On the dominance of new people in industry,
see Daunton (1995), chap. 7, and Crouzet (1985).
Our account of why the major institutional changes first
took place in England is based on Acemoglu, Johnson, and
Robinson (2005a) and Brenner (1976). The data on the
number of independent merchants and their political
preferences come from Zahedieh (2010).
CHAPTER 8 : NOT ON OUR TURF
On the opposition to the printing press in the Ottoman
Empire, see Savage-Smith (2003) pp. 656–59.
Comparative historical literacy comes from Easterlin
(1981).
Our discussion of political institutions of Spain follows
Thompson (1994a, 1994b). For evidence on the economic
decline of Spain over this period, see Nogal and Prados
de la Escosura (2007).
Our discussion of the impediments to economic
development in Austria-Hungary follows Blum (1943),
Freudenberger (1967), and Gross (1973). The quotation
from Maria Theresa comes from Freudenberger, p. 495. All
other quotations from Count Hartig and Francis I are from
Blum. Francis’s reply to the delegates from the Tyrol is
quoted from Jászi (1929), pp. 80–81. The comment of
Friedrich von Gentz to Robert Owen is also quoted from
Jászi (1929), p. 80. The experience of the Rothschilds in
Austria is discussed in chap. 2 of Corti (1928).
Our analysis of Russia follows Gerschenkron (1970). The
quotation from Kropotkin is from p. 60 of the 2009 edition
of his book. The conversation between Nicholas and
Mikhail is quoted from Saunders (1992), p. 117. Kankrin’s
quote on railways is in Owen (1991), pp. 15–16.
The speech by Nicholas to the manufacturers is
reproduced from Pintner 967), p. 100.
The quote from A. A. Zakrevskii is from Pintner (1967), p.
235.
On Admiral Zheng, see Dreyer (2007). The economic
history of early Modern China is covered by Myers and
Wang (2002). The quote from T’ang Chen is quoted from
Myers and Wang, pp. 564–65.
See Zewde (2002) for an overview of the relevant
Ethiopian history. The data on how extractive Ethiopia has
been historically come from Pankhurst (1961), as do all the
quotes we reproduce here.
Our description of Somali institutions and history follows
Lewis (1961, 2002). The heer of the Hassan Ugaas is
reproduced on p.177 of Lewis (1961); our description of a
feud comes from chap. 8 of Lewis (1961), where he reports
many other examples. On the Kingdom of Taqali and
writing, see Ewald (1988).
CHAPTER 9 : REVERSING DEVELOPMENT
Our discussion of the takeover of Ambon and Banda by
the Dutch East India Company and the company’s negative
effect on the development of Southeast Asia follows Hanna
(1978) and particularly Reid (1993), chap. 5. The quotes
from Reid on Tomé Pires are from p. 271; the Dutch factor
i n Maguindanao, p. 299; the sultan of Maguindanao, pp.
299–300. Data on the impact of the Dutch East India
Company on the price of spices come from O’Rourke and
Williamson (2002).
A definitive overview of slavery in African society and the
impact of the slave trade is Lovejoy (2000). Lovejoy, p. 47,
Table 31, reports consensus estimates of the extent of the
slave trade. Nunn (2008) provided the first quantitative
estimates of the impact of the slave trade on African
economic institutions and economic growth. The data on
firearms and gunpowder imports are from Inikori (1977).
The testimony of Francis Moore is quoted from Lovejoy
(2000), pp. 89–90. Law (1977) is a seminal study of the
expansion of the Oyo state. The estimates of the impact of
the slave trade on population in Africa are taken from
Manning (1990). Lovejoy (2000), chap. 8, the essays in
Law (1995), and the important book of Austin (2005) are
the basis for our discussion of the analysis of the period of
“legitimate commerce.” Data on the proportion of Africans
who were slaves in Africa comes from Lovejoy (2000), e.g.,
p. 192, Table 9.2.
Data on labor in Liberia is from Clower, Dalton, Harwitz,
and Walters (1966).
The dual economy idea was developed by Lewis (1954).
Fergusson (2010) develops a mathematical model of the
dual economy. The notion that this was a creation of
colonialism was first proposed in the seminal collection of
essays edited by Palmer and Parsons (1977). Our account
of South Africa is based on Bundy (1979) and Feinstein
(2005).
The Moravian missionary is quoted in Bundy (1979), p.
46, and John Hemming is quoted in Bundy, p. 72. The
spread of land ownership in Griqualand East is from Bundy,
p. 89; the exploits of Stephen Sonjica are from Bundy, p.
94; the quote from Matthew Blyth is from p. 97; and the
quote from a European observer in Fingoland 1884 is from
Bundy, pp. 100–101. George Albu is quoted in Feinstein
(2005), p. 63; secretary for native affairs is quoted from
Feinstein, p. 45; and Verwoerd is quoted from Feinstein, p.
159. Data on the real wages of African gold miners are
from p. 66 of Wilson (1972). G. Findlay is quoted in Bundy
(1979), p. 242.
The notion that the development of the rich countries of
the West is the mirror image of the underdevelopment of
the rest of the world was originally developed by
Wallertsein (1974–2011), though he emphasizes very
different mechanisms than we do.
CHAPTER 10 : THE DIFFUSION OF PROSPERITY
This chapter builds heavily on our previous research with
Simon Johnson and Davide Cantoni: Acemoglu, Johnson,
and Robinson (2002) and Acemoglu, Cantoni, Johnson,
and Robinson (2010, 2011).
Our discussion of the development of early institutions in
Australia follows the seminal work of Hirst (1983, 1988,
2003) and Neal (1991). The original manuscript of the writ
issued to Judge Collins is available (thanks to the
Macquarie University Law School in Australia) at
www.law.mq.edu.au/scnsw/html/Cable%20v%20Sinclair,%201788.htm.
Macarthur’s characterization of Wentworth’s supporters
is quoted from Melbourne (1963), pp. 131–32.
Our discussion of the origins of the Rothschilds follows
Ferguson (1998); Mayer Rothschild’s remark to his son is
reproduced from Ferguson, p. 76.
Our discussion of the impact of the French on European
institutions is taken from Acemoglu, Cantoni, Johnson, and
Robinson (2010, 2011) and the references therein. See
Doyle (2002) for a standard overview of the French
Revolution. Information on the feudal dues in NassauUsingen is from Lenger (2004), p. 96. Ogilivie (2011)
overviews the historical impact of guilds on European
development.
For a treatment of the life of (Ōkubo Toshimichi, see
Iwata (1964). Sakamoto Ryūma’s eight-point plan is
reproduced from Jansen (2000), p. 310.
CHAPTER 11 : THE VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
Our discussion of the Black Act follows Thompson
(1975). Baptist Nunn’s report of June 27 is from Thompson
(1975), pp. 65–66. The other quotes are from Thompson’s
section on the rule of law, pp. 258–69, which is well worth
reading in its entirety.
Our approach to democratization in England is based on
Acemoglu and Robinson (2000a, 2001, and 2006a). Earl
Grey’s speech is quoted from Evans (1996), p. 223.
Stephens’s comment about democracy is quoted in Briggs
(1959), p. 34. Thompson’s quote is from Thompson (1975),
p. 269.
The entire text of the People’s Charter can be found in
Cole
and
Filson
(1951)
and
at
web.bham.ac.uk/1848/document/peoplech.htm.
The quote from Burke is taken from Burke (1790/1969),
p. 152.
Lindert (2004, 2009) is a seminal treatment of the
coevolution of democracy and public policy over the past
two hundred years.
Keyssar (2009) is a seminal introduction to the evolution
of political rights in the United States. Vanderbilt is quoted
in Josephson (1934), p. 15. The text of Roosevelt’s
address is at www.theodore-roosevelt.com/sotu1.html.
The quote from Woodrow Wilson is from Wilson (1913),
p. 286.
The text of President Roosevelt’s Fireside Chat can be
found
at millercenter.org/scripps/archive/speeches/detail/3309.
Data on the relative tenure of Supreme Court justices in
Argentina and the United States is presented in Iaryczower,
Spiller, and Tommasi (2002). Helmke (2004) discusses the
history of court packing in Argentina and quotes Justice
Carlos Fayt.
CHAPTER 12 : THE VICIOUS CIRCLE
This chapter heavily relies on our theoretical and
empirical research on institutional persistence, particularly
Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2005b) and Acemoglu
and Robinson (2008a). Heath (1972) and Kelley and Klein
(1980) made a seminal application of the iron law of
oligarchy to the 1952 Bolivian Revolution.
The quote from the British parliamentary papers is
reproduced from p. 15 of House of Commons (1904). The
early political history of postindependence Sierra Leone is
well told in Cartwright (1970). Though interpretations differ
as to why Siaka Stevens pulled up the railway line, the
salient one is that he did this to isolate Mendeland. In this
we follow Abraham and Sesay (1993), p. 120; Richards
(1996), pp. 42–43; and Davies (2007), pp. 684–85. Reno
(1995, 2003) are the best treatments of Stevens’s regime.
The data on the agricultural marketing boards comes from
Davies (2007). On the murder of Sam Bangura by
defenestration, see Reno (1995), pp. 137–41. Jackson
(2004), p. 63, and Keen (2005), p. 17, discuss the
acronyms ISU and SSD.
Bates (1981) is the seminal analysis of how marketing
boards
destroyed
agricultural
productivity
in
postindependence Africa, see Goldstein and Udry (2009)
on how political connections to chiefs determine property
rights to land in Ghana.
On the relation between politicians in 1993 and the
conquistadors, see Dosal (1995), chap. 1, and Casaús
Arzú (2007). Our discussion of the policies of the
Consulado de Comercio follows Woodward (1966). The
quote from President Barrios is from McCreery (1994), pp.
187–88. Our discussion of the regime of Jorge Ubico
follows Grieb (1979).
Our discussion of the underdevelopment of the U.S.
South follows Acemoglu and Robinson (2008b). See
Wright (1978) on the pre–Civil War development of the
slave economy, and Bateman and Weiss (1981) on the
dearth of industry. Fogel and Engerman (1974) give a
different and controversial interpretation. Wright (1986) and
Ransom and Sutch (2001) give overviews of the extent to
which the southern economy after 1865 really changed.
Congressman George Washington Julian is quoted in
Wiener (1978), p. 6. The same book contains the analysis
of the persistence of the southern landed elite after the Civil
War. Naidu (2009) examines the impact of the introduction
of poll taxes and literacy tests in the 1890s in southern
states. The quotation from W.E.B. Du Bois is in his book
Du Bois (1903), p. 88. Clause 256 of the Alabama
constitution
can
be
found
at
www.legislature.state.al.us/CodeOfAlabama/Constitution/
1901/CA-245806.htm.
Alston and Ferrie (1999) discuss how southern
politicians blocked federal legislation they thought would
disrupt the South’s economy. Woodward (1955) gives a
seminal overview of the creation of Jim Crow.
Overviews of the Ethiopian revolution are provided in
Halliday and Molyneux (1981). On the Emperor’s cushions,
see Kapuściński (1983). The quotes from Dawit Wolde
Giorgis are from Dawit Wolde Giorgis (1989), pp. 49 and
48, respectively.
CHAPTER 13 : WHY NATIONS FAIL TODAY
For the BBC report on Mugabe’s lottery success,
including the public statement of Zimbank, see
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/621895.stm.
Our treatment of the creation of white rule in Rhodesia
follows Palmer (1977) and Alexander (2006). Meredith
(2007) provides a good overview of more recent
Zimbabwean politics.
Our account of the civil war in Sierra Leone follows
Richards (1996), Truth and Reconciliation Commission
(2004), and Keen (2005). The analysis published in a
newspaper in the capital city of Freetown in 1995 is quoted
from Keen (2005), p. 34. The text of the RUF’s “Footpaths
to Democracy” can we found at www.sierraleone.org/AFRC-RUF/footpaths.html.
The quotation from the teenager from Geoma is from
Keen (2005), p. 42.
Our discussion of the Colombian paramilitaries follows
Acemoglu, Robinson, and Santos (2010) and Chaves and
Robinson (2010), which in turn heavily rely on the extensive
work by Colombian scholars, particularly Romero (2003),
the essays in Romero (2007), and López (2010). León
(2009) is an accessible and balanced account of the nature
of contemporary conflicts in Colombia. Also fundamental is
the Web site run by the weekly newspaper Semana,
www.verdadabierta.com/. All the quotes come from
Acemoglu, Robinson, and Santos (2010). The contract
between Martín Llanos and the mayors in Casanare is
available
in
Spanish
at
www.verdadabierta.com/victimarios/los-jefes/714-perfilhector-german-buitrago-alias-martin-llanos.
The origins and consequences of El Corralito are well
presented in a series of articles in The Economist
magazine,
available
at
www.economist.com/search/apachesolr_search/corralito.
On the role of the interior in Argentine development, see
Sawers (1996).
Hassig and Oh (2009) provides an excellent, valuable
account of life in North Korea. Chap. 2 covers the luxurious
lifestyle of the leadership, and chaps. 3 and 4, the
economic realities that most people face. The BBC
coverage of the currency reform can be found at
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8500017.stm. On the pleasure palace
and brandy consumption, see chap. 12 of Post (2004).
Our discussion of child labor and its use for picking
cotton in Uzbeksitan follows Kandiyoti (2008), available at
www.soas.ac.uk/cccac/events/cotton-sector-in-central-asia2005/file49842.pdf. The quote from Gulnaz is on p. 20 of
Kandiyoti. On the Andijon uprising, see International Crisis
Group (2005). The description of the election of Joseph
Stalin in the Soviet Union is reproduced from Denny
(1937).
Our analysis of “crony capitalism” in Egypt follows
Sfakianakis (2004).
CHAPTER 14 : BREAKING THE MOLD
Our treatment of Botswana follows Acemoglu, Johnson,
and Robinson (2003); Robinson and Parsons (2006); and
Leith (2005). Schapera (1970) and Parsons, Henderson,
and Tlou (1995) are fundamental works. High
Commissioner Rey is quoted in Acemoglu, Johnson, and
Robinson (2003), p. 96. The discussion of the three chiefs’
visit to England follows Parsons (1998), and all quotes
relating to this come from his book: Chamberlain, pp. 206–
7; Fairfield, p. 209; and Rhodes, p. 223. Schapera is
quoted from Schapera (1940), p. 72. The quote from Quett
Masire is from Masire (2006), p. 43. On the ethnic
composition of the Tswana tribes, see Schapera (1952).
Our treatment of change in the U.S. South follows
Acemoglu and Robinson (2008b). On the population
movement out of the U.S. South, see Wright (1999); on the
mechanization of cotton picking, Heinicke (1994). “FRDUM
FOOF SPETGH” is quoted from Mickey (2008), p. 50.
Thurmond’s
1948
speech
is
taken
from
www.slate.com/id/2075151/, where you also can listen to
the audio recording. On James Meredith and Oxford,
Mississippi, see Doyle (2001). See Wright (1999) on the
impact of civil rights legislation on black voting in the South.
On the nature and politics of China’s political transition
after the death of Mao, see Harding (1987) and
MacFarquhar and Schoenhals (2008). Deng’s quote about
the cat is from Harding, p. 58. The first point of the Cultural
Revolution is from Schoenhals (1996), p. 33; Mao on Hitler
is from MacFarquhar and Schoenhals, p. 102; Hua on the
“Two Whatevers” is from Harding, p. 56.
CHAPTER 15 : UNDERSTANDING PROSPERITY AND POVERTY
For the story of Dai Guofang, see McGregor (2010), pp.
219–26. The story of red telephones is also from
McGregor, chap. 1. On the control of the party over media,
see Pan (2008), chap. 9, and McGregor (2010), pp. 64–69
and 235–62. The quotes on the party’s attitudes toward
entrepreneurs are from McGregor (2010), pp. 200–201
and 223. For Wen Jiabao’s comments on political reforms
in China, see www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/29/wenjiabao-china-reform.
The modernization hypothesis is clearly articulated in
Lipset (1959). The evidence against it is discussed in
detail in Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson, and Yared (2008,
2009). George H. W. Bush’s quote is from
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/752224.stm.
Our discussion of NGO activity and foreign aid in
Afghanistan after December 2001 draws on Ghani and
Lockhart (2008). See also Reinikka and Svensson (2004)
and Easterly (2006) on problems of foreign aid.
Our discussion of problems of macroeconomic reform
and inflation in Zimbabwe is from Acemoglu, Johnson,
Robinson, and Querubín (2008). The Seva Mandir
discussion is drawn from Banerjee, Duflo, and Glennerster
(2008).
The formation of the Workers’ Party in Brazil is covered
in Keck (1992); on the Scânia strike, see chap. 4. The
quote from Cardoso is from Keck, pp. 44–45; the quote
from Lula is on Keck, p. 65.
The discussion of the efforts of Fujimori and Montesinos
to control the media is from McMillan and Zoido (2004),
and the quote on the Chinese Communist Party’s control is
from McGregor (2010), p. 69.
SOURCES FOR THE MAPS
Map 1: The Inca Empire and road system are adapted
from John V. Murra (1984), “Andean Societies before
1532,” in Leslie Bethell, ed., The Cambridge History of
Latin America , vol. 1 (New York: Cambridge University
Press). The map of the mita catchment area is taken from
Melissa Dell (2010), “The Persistent Effects of Peru’s
Mining Mita,” Econometrica 78:6, 1863–1903.
Map 2: Drawn using data from Miriam Bruhn and
Francisco Gallego (2010), “The Good, the Bad, and the
Ugly: Do They Matter for Economic Development?”
forthcoming in the Review of Economics and Statistics.
Map 3: Drawn using data from World Development
Indicators (2008), the World Bank.
Map 4: Map of wild pigs adapted from W. L. R. Oliver; I.
L. Brisbin, Jr.; and S. Takahashi (1993), “The Eurasian
Wild Pig (Sus scrofa),” in W. L. R. Oliver, ed., Pigs,
Peccaries, and Hippos: Status Survey and Action Plan
(Gland, Switzerland: IUCN), pp. 112–21. Wild cattle
adapted from map of aurochs from Cis van Vuure (2005),
Retracing the Aurochs (Sofia: Pensoft Publishers), p. 41.
Map 5: Adapted from Daniel Zohary and Maria Hopf
(2001), The Domestication of Plants in the Old World, 3rd
edition (New York: Oxford University Press), wheat map 4,
p. 56; barley map 5, p. 55. Map of rice distribution adapted
from Te-Tzu Chang (1976), “The Origin, Evolution,
Cultivation, Dissemination, and Diversification of Asian and
African Rices,” Euphytica 25, 425–41, figure 2, p. 433.
Map 6: The Kuba Kingdom is based on Jan Vansina
(1978), The Children of Woot (Madison: University of
Wisconsin Press), map 2, p. 8. Kongo based on Jan
Vansina (1995), “Equatorial Africa Before the Nineteenth
Century,” in Philip Curtin, Steven Feierman, Leonard
Thompson, and Jan Vansina, African History: From
Earliest Times to Independence (New York: Longman),
map 8.4, p. 228.
Map 7: Drawn using data from the Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan
System (DMSP-OLS), which reports images of the Earth at
night captured from 20:00 to 21:30 local time from an
altitude
of
830
km
(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/sensors/ols.html).
Map 8: Constructed from data in Jerome Blum (1998),
The End of the Old Order in Rural Europe (Princeton:
Princeton University Press).
Map 9: Adapted from the maps in Colin Martin and
Geoffrey Parker (1988), The Spanish Armada (London:
Hamilton), pp. i–ii, 243.
Map 10: Adapted from Simon Martin and Nikolai Gribe
(2000), Chronicle of the Maya Kings and Queens:
Deciphering the Dynasties of the Ancient Maya (London:
Thames and Hudson), p. 21.
Map 11: Map adapted from Mark A. Kishlansky, Patrick
Geary, and Patricia O’Brien (1991), Civilization in the
West (New York: HarperCollins Publishers), p. 151.
Map 12: Somali clan families adapted from Ioan M.
Lewis (2002), A Modern History of Somalia (Oxford:
James Currey), map of “Somali ethnic and clan-family
distribution 2002”; map of Aksum adapted from Kevin
Shillington (1995), History of Africa , 2nd edition (New York:
St. Martin’s Press), map 5.4, p. 69.
Map 13: J. R. Walton (1998), “Changing Patterns of
Trade and Interaction Since 1500,” in R. A. Butlin and R. A.
Dodgshon, eds., An Historical Geography of Europe
(Oxford: Oxford University Press), figure 15.2, p. 326.
Map 14: Adapted from Anthony Reid (1988), Southeast
Asia in the Age of Commerce, 1450–1680: Volume 1,
The Land Below the Winds (New Haven: Yale University
Press), map 2, p. 9.
Map 15: Drawn from data taken from Nathan Nunn
(2008), “The Long Term Effects of Africa’s Slave Trades,”
Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, no. 1, 139–76.
Map 16: Maps based on the following maps: for South
Africa, A. J. Christopher (2001), The Atlas of Changing
South Africa (London: Routledge), figure 1.19, p. 31; for
Zimbabwe, Robin Palmer (1977), Land and Racial
Domination in Rhodesia (Berkeley: University of California
Press), map 5, p. 245.
Map 17: Adapted from Alexander Grab (2003),
Napoleon and the Transformation of Europe (London:
Palgrave Macmillan), map 1, p. 17; map 2, p. 91.
Map 18: Drawn using data from the 1840 U.S. Census,
downloadable at the National Historical Geographic
Information System: http://www.nhgis.org/.
Map 19: Drawn using data from the 1880 U.S. Census,
downloadable at the National Historical Geographic
Information System: http://www.nhgis.org/.
Map 20: Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson, and
Rafael J. Santos (2010), “The Monopoly of Violence:
Evidence
from
Colombia,”
at
http://scholar.harvard.edu/jrobinson/files/
jr_formationofstate.pdf.
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——(2008). “Oligarchic Versus Democratic Societies.”
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Acemoglu, Daron, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson,
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