June, 2013 Five reasons why auto world is shifting to emerging markets and what it means for India Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/auto/automobiles/five-reasons-why-auto-world-is-shifting-to-emerging-markets-and-what-it-means-for-india/articleshow/20127224.cms The dichotomy at times is hard to About a decade back, in 2002, Asia's contribution to global production fathom. The India auto industry closed capacity in the automobile industry was 15-20%. Today it accounts for 2012-13 with a sales dip of 6.7%, the over half. China has become the top country in car sales, beating the first drop in 12 years. The outlook for US. Auto MNCs, lured by this huge growth potential, are shifting 2013-14 isn't much brighter, with production bases to Asia to be closer to their customers. India with a industry capacity to produce 3 million cars is the third largest. experts and analysts predicting a growth of 3-5%. With vehicle penetration in India at a low 13 per 1,000 people Yet talk to top honchos of auto MNCs and you get a different picture. (compared to 45 per 1,000 for China) and a growing young Honda sees India as an important leg on which global growth rests. population, it should soon overtake Korea as the second-largest car Ford Motors CEO Joginder Singh says the Detroit carmaker remains producer in Asia, after China. buoyant about the country's long-term potential. Ditto for Nissan and Toyota. 2) Global Platforms, Global Lifecycle The apparent disconnect between the sales slowdown in India today Almost all auto companies are looking to reduce the manufacturing and auto MNCs' long-term ambitions has a good explanation. Over complexity in their product portfolio. They are laying thrust on global the past decade, the demand and hence the manufacturing landscape platforms using the same base globally to churn out a range of in the auto world has begun shifting from the developed to the vehicles. For example, Volkswagen's Polo (a compact) and Vento (a emerging world. sedan) are based on the same platform. It is now also developing a Here are five reasons why this shift is happening and what it means for India: sub-four metre Vento on the same platform specifically for India. It is reportedly considering an MPV and a compact SUV on the same platform. 1) The Rise of Asia Increasingly the auto world is seeing a global convergence of the According to estimates of Brooking Institution, a US public policy research organisation, the US' and Europe's share of the world's middle class today at around 50% will dip to 22% by 2030. In Asia, it will more than double from 30% to 64% by then. This shift is already product lifecycle. More and more auto firms are now doing global launches of their products in different markets and also phasing them out simultaneously. For example, Ford EcoSport will soon debut in India as part of its global launch. reflected in the automobile industry. "As platforms become globalised, there is less pressure to locate production close to any one market. We're seeing surprisingly strong manufacturing centres developing in North America, particularly the US and Mexico. Of course China, Korea, parts of Southeast Asia and Europe will continue to be strong production hubs," says US-based Jeremy Anwly, vicechairman of Edmunds.com, an auto advisory portal. 3) From High Cost to Low Cost It helps that production costs in most developed countries like the US, Japan and most western European countries are sharply higher than the emerging markets. Perhaps the only exception is Germany which has maintained its manufacturing edge due to its relentless focus on technology, its thriving manufacturing ecosystem and its focus on high-end cars. 1 June, 2013 4) FTAs Shift Balance Many countries are signing regional or bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs). The US has signed one with Mexico, India has signed with the Southeast Asian countries. India's FTA with EU though has run into a controversy. The US has signed FTAs with a range of countries, including Mexico which is fast emerging as a car export hub in North America. Turkey is also emerging as production hub, partly due to its FTA with countries like Korea. 5) Convergence of Demand & Norms At a macro level, there is some convergence of the kind of vehicles that consumers in different markets need. Europebased Mark Fulthorpe, senior manager, IHS Global, says environmental and efficiency norms in different countries today are much closer than they As a result, auto MNCs are shifting their production bases from high- ever were in the past. This means companies have to align their cars cost economies like the US and western Europe to low-cost countries with policy norms that are in a much narrower band. like China and India. Analysts estimate that producing cars in India today may be 15-20% cheaper than in the US. In fact, there are many Also, globally, there is a clear shift in consumers' preference for countries like the Czech Republic and Argentina with no primary smaller, compact and fuel-efficient vehicles, says Haig Stoddard, a domestic demand which are emerging as low-cost export hubs for the veteran auto analyst with US-based Ward's Auto. All this means that regions. auto MNCs have to deal with a far less heterogeneous policy environment and consumer demand allowing them more room to pick "Rather than setting up duplicate production bases, OEMs are their production location. increasingly seeking to gain efficiencies and scale by establishing a production base in the most efficient place where they can minimise cost and maximise revenue," says Beijing-based Bill Russo, senior adviser, Booz & Company, a consultancy firm. 2 June, 2013 Why there may not be too many takers for new banks Source: http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/bAMjyY32Rd8Murrz5BNszK/Why-there-may-not-be-too-many-takers-for-new-banks.html Given the constraints and complex licensing norms, firms are The list of aspirants at this point includes large conglomerates such as wondering if they should enter the banking business the Tatas, Birlas, Mahindras, Bajajs, the Videocon group and the Reliance Group; non-banking financial companies such as Religare Enterprises Ltd, L&T Financial Holdings Ltd, LIC Housing Finance Ltd, Magma Fincorp Ltd, Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd, SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd; brokerages such as India Infoline Ltd and Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd; microfinance institutions such as Bandhan Financial Services Pvt. Ltd and Janalakshmi Financial Services; and state-run India Post, Power Finance Corp. Ltd and Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd. All of them have existing assets and want to convert themselves into a bank. And there lies the catch. The licensing norms say that the new RBI norms do not allow a bank to have secured liability on its books. So, those banking aspirants who banks must have 40% of the loan portfolio in the so-called priority want to start business by transferring their assets and liabilities of existing business will need to seek a sector, or small loans, as soon as they start operations. Besides, they relaxation of the norm. Photo: Pradeep Gaur/Mint need to maintain the statutory government bond holding—currently Ousted Citigroup Inc. chief executive officer Vikram Pandit ’s return to 23% of deposits—and cash reserve ratio (CRR), currently 4%. CRR banking is creating excitement in the Rs. 75 trillion Indian banking refers to the portion of deposits that commercial banks need to keep industry, but there may not be too many takers for permits because of with the central bank. This means, if an entity has an asset book of, regulatory reasons and some licensing norms that many companies say, Rs.10,000 crore, it must have Rs.4,000 crore worth of small say will come in the way of creating value. The Indian central bank is loans. Besides, it needs to keep Rs.400 crore with RBI in the form of set to open up the sector for a bunch of private entities as well as CRR and invest Rs.2,300 crore in government bonds to fulfil the target state undertakings a decade after it allowed two new banks to start of statutory liquidity ratio or SLR. business. In the past, when the development financial institution, the erstwhile Famed investment banker Nimesh Kampani’s financial services firm, Industrial Development Bank of India, became a bank through a JM Financial Ltd, is nominating Indian-born Pandit, 56, as non- reverse merger with its banking subsidiary, RBI gave it seven years to executive chairman of its proposed banking company. Pandit and his achieve these targets, but it did not relax the norms when another business partner Hari Aiyar, who had worked with him at Morgan such institution, ICICI Bank Ltd, became a bank. Stanley and Old Lane, the hedge fund that was sold to Citi when Pandit joined the Citigroup, are making a strategic investment by This time around, RBI is not willing to relax the norms as the objective taking a 3% equity stake in JM Financial. Both will have the right to behind opening up the sector is the so-called financial inclusion, or purchase shares up to the amount prescribed by the Reserve Bank of expansion of banking services. It is also insisting that one-fourth of the India (RBI) in the proposed bank. Under the licensing norms, an entity branch network of a new bank must be in unbanked pockets where or an individual can buy less than 5% in a bank. On Thursday, at a the population is less than 9,999. stock exchange filing after market hours, JM Financial said it would apply for a banking licence. On Friday, its stock rose 13.38%. So, there is a clear disincentive to a group that has an existing loan portfolio and wants to start banking. Even if RBI gives a few years to Till recently, every man and his dog wanted to set up a bank as it achieve the targets for priority sector loans and investment in gives one status and access to cheap money, but many large government bonds, for such banks the sole business in the first few conglomerates are now holding brainstorming sessions on whether years will be only giving small loans and buying government bonds. it’s worth entering the banking business in Asia’s third largest Or they will have to pay the penalty for not meeting the targets. So, it economy where around 40% of the adult population still does not will be difficult to make profits in initial years. have access to banking. Indeed, the opportunity is enormous as the expanding middle class in India has ambitions to buy houses and And, by the time a bank starts making a profit, its promoters would cars, and corporations see huge consumer demand in many pockets have to pare their stakes. Going by the licensing norms, the proposed of the economy, but regulatory requirements are making many new bank will have to be listed within three years and the promoters’ aspirants rethink their strategy. And, at least some of them have shareholding must come down to 40%. Within 10 years, it must be started feeling that it’s just not worth entering the segment. Those who pared to 20%, and by the 12th year 15%. want to float a bank need to put in their applications by 1 July. 3 June, 2013 Within these stipulations, how would a promoter create value? Even Similarly, what will they do with their bad loans? If they transfer such though the initial capital requirement is Rs.500 crore, the serious loans along with good loans—however small the bad loans may be— aspirants will have to pump in more capital as the capital adequacy the bank’s asset book will have a blot from Day 1, but if they do not ratio for the new banks has been kept at 13%. For the existing banks, transfer these, they will find it difficult to recover money, as unlike it is 9%. This means, for every Rs.100 worth of loans, a new bank banks, non-banking financial companies cannot move on the fast- needs Rs.13 capital. In other words, their capability to leverage will be track recovery lane under the Sarfaesi Act, or the Securitization and less than the existing banks and they would need more capital if they Reconsutruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Securities want to expand their asset base. Besides, they would need to spend Act, 2002. money on technology, branches and employees. All these complexities may prompt the aspirants, particularly the big So, those who have an existing asset book would need to spend business conglomerates, to explore new models while applying for heavily to achieve the targets for priority sector loans and mandatory bank licences. One could be an alliance with a microfinance firm as government bond holding, and others who want start with a clean that will help them achieve the priority loan and rural branch network slate would need to make heavy investments but cannot reap the targets. harvest as they would need to divest and bring down their stakes. In big conglomerates, I am told, other business divisions have been Despite all issues, many of the non-banking financial companies need making pitches to the senior management against getting into to become banks as otherwise they may not survive. The first set of banking, saying they can generate better returns if the money is new banks that got licences in 1994 had taken away business from invested in their businesses. then staid public sector banks and foreign banks in urban areas in India. The banks that will set shop now will attack the non-banking On top of these, any corporation that enters banking also runs a big financial companies to generate business. reputation risk if anything goes wrong in the business of money. This is not the case with other businesses. For instance, the Tata Finance scandal has affected the group much more than, say, its investment in Corus Group Plc turning sour or Ratan Tata’s battle with the four satraps in the Tata empire—Russi Mody, Darbari Seth, Ajit Kerkar and Nani Palkhivala—after he took over the mantle in the 1990s. Then there are other technical issues. For instance, banks’ liabilities— deposits—are unsecured, while the bulk of a non-banking financial company’s liabilities such as loans from banks and money raised from corporations and wealthy individuals through bonds are secured. RBI norms do not allow a bank to have a secured liability on its books. So, those banking aspirants who want to start business by transferring their assets and liabilities of the existing business will need to seek a relaxation of the norm from the regulator. 4 June, 2013 Making A Splash earmarked Source: http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?285140 for capacity addition. VA Tech, with a presence across the water spectrum, is in a position to take advantage of this. At home, the competes company with domestic players such as Thermax, Ion Exchange and Hindustan Dorr Oliver, as well as international rivals such as Veolia, Suez and Degremont. But it does have “There has been some slowdown but we have managed to get our share of the pie" —Rajiv Mittal, Managing director, VA Tech Wabag a couple of advantages. A strong balance sheet and cheap valuation seem to work in favour of First, the takeover of its water treatment major, VA Tech Wabag parent gave access to In 1996, Rajiv Mittal left London and came to Chennai to set up the VA Tech cutting edge technology, with over 100 Indian office of the company he worked for. Eight years later, when the Indian operation was put on the block, Mittal and three executive patents. “This is one of the clear differentiators,” agrees Mittal, the directors of the company decided to make a bid. Management managing director. Also, the company is present across the water buyouts are still a rare occurrence in India — and buyouts of Indian spectrum unlike, say, Thermax, Ion Exchange and Driplex, which arms of MNCs almost unheard-of. But, in September 2005, with some compete only in the industrial water segment, while Degremont and help from ICICI Ventures, the quartet bought 75% of the company Enviro Control are present mainly in the waste water segment. That’s they worked for, paying Rs 60 crore. A year after Mittal decided to try helped the company increase the contribution to total revenue from his hand at the unthinkable — he made a bid to acquire the parent Indian business from 58% to 66%, between FY09 and FY12. company in Austria. Again helped by the PE firm, he succeeded and the deal was completed in 2007. On the international platform, its pedigree has helped the company win projects in over 20 countries across North Africa, Europe and Asia Just what company are we talking about? It’s the Chennai- where it can play the low-cost advantage card (see: World wide wet). headquartered VA Tech Wabag, a Rs 1,400-crore tech firm that’s VA Tech consciously follows an asset-light model, focusing on design carving a niche for itself in the water treatment business, offering and engineering in the projects it undertakes while outsourcing the solutions for sewage treatment, industrial waste water treatment, majority of its construction jobs. About 81% of its business comes drinking water treatment, desalination and water reuse, to clients from engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) services, while across government and industry. It also has ambitions of establishing operations and maintenance (O&M) accounts for the balance. itself as one of the top three players globally in the water business (currently, VA Tech is in the top eight). The company has given a guidance of growing revenue to €1 billion (Rs 7,100 crore) by 2017 — a four-fold increase in as many years. Of this, nearly half will come from the Indian market, 25% from overseas business and the rest through acquisitions. Can it achieve all that? That’s the billion-euro question. At home and abroad According to EverythingAboutWater, the total Indian water market is estimated at about $15 billion, while the water and wastewater treatment market size is about $420 million; both are growing at 18% a year. Another report, this one by the Water Resource Group, A salt-free diet estimates that about half the country’s water demand will go unmet by 2030 if existing conditions continue. Nearly 75% of India’s population lives in water-stressed areas. So, it comes as no surprise that the Indian government is focusing on improving water infrastructure through its landmark schemes under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), where 20% of the total spend is Now, the biggest opportunity, believes the management, lies in desalination. By 2018, VA Tech estimates, desalination capacity in India will be around 5,350 million litres a day (mld) having grown at 30% a year from the current 900 mld. It recently completed its biggest desalination project till date, the Rs 1,100-crore Nemmeli plant in 5 June, 2013 Chennai, which will supply 100 mld every day to Chennai residents, taking care of 10-12% of the city’s requirement. While VA Tech has earned Rs 530 crore for the design and construction of the project, it parent Delays are a concern but they are also company gave VA Tech access all too common in the project business. to cutting edge technology, with Where projects involving the government The takeover of more than 100 patents also has an O&M contract for the plant, which will generate another Rs 500 crore over a seven-year period. its may at times run into hurdles in getting approvals or funds released, even natural phenomena such as a heavy monsoon can stop work for up to a couple of months at a time. Although there were some delays in the Nemmeli project, the In some cases, VA Tech has itself funded the project to ensure timely company has been able to use it to springboard its way to more completion — the Nemmeli project is a case in point, although now projects. In 2010, VA Tech entered into an alliance with Sumitomo some 70% of the design and construction cost has been paid to the Corporation to compete for large water infrastructure projects. The company by the Tamil Nadu government. “Delays lead to cost consortium won a $350 million project to build a 192 mld desalination escalation, resulting in lower margins. Our customers have the plant in Muscat, Oman. VA Tech’s share of the project, which is likely willingness to pay but, at times, may not have the ability. So, we put in to be completed in the next two years, will be around Rs 400 crore. our cash to complete the projects,” explains Mittal. Recently, the Tamil Nadu government also announced two more This is where the company’s strong balance sheet and cash reserves desalination plants. While a 150 mld plant will come up next to the of about Rs 350 crore come to its aid. “Unlike many EPC companies existing one at Nemmeli, another will be set up at Pattipulam near that come with stressed balance sheets, VA Tech’s asset light Chennai with a capacity of 200 mld that can be increased to 400 mld. business model ensures that the company remains cash rich and that Analysts believe VA Tech will be at an advantage when bidding opens works to its advantage,” points out Nitin Bhasin, infrastructure analyst on the projects, since it has already built the largest plant in the at Ambit Capital. country. In fact, the company is likely to be one of the major beneficiaries of even the central government’s increasing investments VA Tech is also becoming in water supply and waste water treatment (see: The fourth wave). careful in the kind of projects it “The sector is so attractive and it is up to us and our ability to harness chooses. the growth opportunities,” says Mittal. delay in execution as well as Since chances of payment are higher in municipal and state government projects, it prefers multi-laterally funded and central government initiatives. “The company works in a space where most of the payments government are or made the government entities and dealing with them can be very challenging. But it has done well on that front,” praises Jerry Rao, founder of Mphasis and a director on the VA Tech board. Indeed, as there has been some lag in government spending in India, Order, order the contribution of the domestic industrial business is now about 4550% of revenue, while the government business contributes 50-55% At the end of December 2012, VA Tech had an impressive order book compared with earlier when government business contributed about of Rs 4,269 crore, but the slowdown has had an impact, with orders 75%. taking longer to come by. “There has been some slowdown but we have managed to get our share of the pie. We may have had to work Meanwhile, when there has been a slowdown of orders in some of VA harder for it but we will achieve the order book growth we had Tech’s otherwise-strong markets, such as Libya and Algeria, due to promised for FY13,” says Mittal confidently. At the beginning of FY13, political unrest in 2011, the company has turned its focus to newer the company has indicated an order book growth of 20% for FY13. It markets such as Turkey, Sri Lanka and West Asia. “Having a diverse is looking at a similar growth for FY14. The company is also confident presence across countries works in its favour because when one of achieving its full-year revenue guidance of Rs 1,650-1,700 crore economy is a facing a downturn, you can focus on other markets to with operating margins of 9-9.5%. That’s lower than the industry generate growth,” says Sumit Chandwani, managing partner, Arth average of 10-10.5% and in defence, the company points to high-cost Capital. Chandwani was with ICICI Ventures when it invested in VA overseas subsidiaries, which it says it has since turned around. Now, Tech and played an instrumental role in both its takeovers. He VA Tech is looking to build up volumes for margins to improve further. continues as an independent director on the company’s board. Besides, Mittal points out, margins on the standalone business are at 12.5-13%. 6 June, 2013 Over a five-year period (2007-2012), the company’s revenues have grown by an average 34% and profits have grown by 61%. During the nine months ended December 2012, revenues grew by 20% to Rs 925.5 crore and profits more than doubled to Rs 29.6 crore. Ambit’s Bhasin feels that, given the growth trajectory of the company, its current valuations are attractive. “The company’s revenue growth trajectory from mid-teens is likely to shift higher to 20% during the next two years. Given that the stock trades at 11-12x its FY14 earnings, we think it is very attractive,” he adds. Over the past one year (as April 22, 2013), VA Tech’s stock has gained 16%, outperforming the Sensex during that period. The company is also well-poised to gain from the increased spending in water infrastructure, sewage and waste water management in emerging markets. With Mittal eyeing €1 billion in revenues in the next four to five years, most analysts are bullish on the stock on account of the strong management team, increasing investments in the sector and execution track record of the company. Bhasin has a price target of Rs 750 on the stock, which currently trades at Rs 492. With the odds in its favour, it definitely seems worth a bet. 7 June, 2013 The Milky Way Source: http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?285124 de la crème). And even as growth in Danone’s home region of Europe is weakening, Euromonitor predicts that 95% of the global dairy How Danone is differentiating itself in the Indian dairy market market’s growth from 2011 to 2016 will come from emerging markets. So, India is clearly important to the €21-billion foods major — in fact, it has a presence in the country across all four of its business streams, from water and fresh dairy products, to baby nutrition and medical nutrition. But, at the same time, Danone is clearly a latecomer to the Indian dairy market. Amul, Mother Dairy, Nestlé and Britannia have had decades to establish themselves — they have formidable distribution muscle and their brands are deeply entrenched across the length and breadth of the country. New Zealand’s Fonterra has just made its solo entry in India after breaking off its joint venture with Danone’s erstwhile Indian partner, Britannia. Then, ITC is planning a foray into dairy, while Reliance Retail has Reliance Dairy Foods. There is also a multitude of regional brands that are equally strong in their home territories. What is Danone doing to stand out in this crowd? “I don’t really care much about competition. After all, we are a much smaller player than Amul or Nestlé" —Jochen Ebert, MD, Danone Foods & Beverages India Devendra Shah was at his dairy plant in early 2007 when he was informed that an executive from Danone India wanted to speak with him. Intrigued at what a competitor could possibly want, Shah — chairman of the Rs 880-crore Parag Milk Foods — answered the phone and was taken aback when asked whether senior officials from the world’s biggest yogurt maker could call on him. He said yes, and a couple of days later, two top Danone executives made the trip to Manchar, 60 km from Pune. They spent the better part of the day at the facility that houses India’s largest cow farm and Asia’s biggest cheese factory but their focus wasn’t on milk or cheese. “The conversation was about what Danone could do with the yogurt market in India,” recalls Shah. If he was surprised at being asked for advice from a rival, Shah saw A set market that as no reason to hold back, especially since his brands (Go and Gowardhan) were yet to launch flavoured yogurt. “I told them it was Jochen Ebert first came to India from Saudi Arabia in 2006 and stayed important to sell yogurt the way they would sell ice cream — the on for three years. He returned in early 2012 as managing director of consumer should have to use a spoon.” Unlike in Europe, where Danone India but in two stints here, hasn’t really picked up the local yogurt drinks are immensely popular, in India, points out Shah, “yogurt language. There’s one four-letter word in Hindi that he knows really needs to be scooped with a spoon”. well, though: dahi. Indians may distinguish between dahi and yogurt (the former being the plain variety we make at home, the latter bought It’s not known whether the Danone executives took Shah’s word to heart but when the French company launched its yogurt in India, it was in a cup, to be eaten with a spoon. The other, drinkable yogurtbased products — lassi and smoothies — followed “The Kashmir to only later. Kanyakumari is In the three years since its launch, Danone India important only if has expanded its portfolio pretty rapidly, in keeping footprint you have a mass the with the way most multinationals in India do dairy segment"— business. The company now has five products (with Devendra multiple flavours) in the milk and yogurt space, and product in Shah, Chairman, Parag Milk Foods from stores in small plastic tubs, in flavours such as banana, strawberry and vanilla), but for Ebert, the dahi universe includes all forms of fermented milk — curd, yogurt, lassi, chaas and smoothies. “We are a yogurt company and we want to increase the per capita consumption of dahi,” he declares. Right now, per capita consumption in India is a meagre 2.3 kg per year, of which just 300 gm is of the packaged, store-purchased variety. Back in Danone’s home, the French spoon up 25 kg of yogurt every year. The numbers across the rest of Europe are equally high: 23 kg in Holland and 24 kg in Germany. “If per capita consumption increases to even 8 kg here, you are talking of a lot of business to a lot of people,” Ebert grins. operates in a Rs 2,513.5-crore segment of the Rs 33,200 crore organised dairy market (see: Crème 8 June, 2013 Certainly, as urban lifestyles change rapidly, there’s a growing acceptance of store-bought curd. Indeed, Danone estimates that although the average per capita of packaged yogurt is 300 gm, it is skewed heavily toward urban India, where the figure is likely to be closer to 1 kg (and near zero in rural India). “If Danone localises The number of working women, singletons and everything, it won’t students staying away from home is rising in big cities, most of whom, points out Ebert, have reasonably high disposable incomes and are short have any advantage over competitors such as Amul"—Pankaj Ghemawat, on time. For them, the convenience of prepared Professor of global yogurt available on demand is an unbeatable strategy, proposition. “The 300 million urban population, IESE business school which includes working women and university students is my market,” says Ebert. The biggest plus — consumption Premium and proud of it of dahi is a habit ingrained from childhood in most Indians, so it becomes a necessary part of the daily diet. A fan of “indovation” — a portmanteau word for innovation for the Indian market — Danone has introduced products developed According to market estimates, some 100 tonnes of packaged, especially to cater to local tastes. These include lassi and chaas. branded curd is sold across India every day. Danone’s share of that is “Dairy is an extremely local business. The problem of spoilage aside, still minuscule — about 5% — although packaged curd is believed to tastes vary widely across countries and sometimes within countries, account for 70% of the company’s Rs 100-crore turnover. Established as well,” points out Pankaj Ghemawat, professor of global strategy at players such as Mother Dairy, Amul and Nestlé take away the lion’s IESE Business School, Barcelona. He adds a caveat: “The challenge share of the market (see: A small serving). These brands are also is coming up with smart combinations of global and local since, if present across the spectrum of dairy products in India, which makes it Danone localises everything, it won’t have any advantage over even tougher for Danone to carve out a niche for itself. “I don’t really competitors such as Amul.” care much about competition,” says Ebert. “After all, we are a much But even though it’s launched popular desi products smaller player than Amul or Nestlé.” He cites a recent instance when just like its rivals, the company is clearly not even a colleague told him that Nestlé had dropped the price of its 400 gm trying to take on the big players at their own game, dahi offering, from Rs 45 to Rs 40. “I heard him out and asked what which would involve a big basket of products and the next topic of discussion was,” Ebert adds. “Honestly, we are here to launch better products and need to focus on that.” Right now, though, new products aren’t on the agenda — no butter, “The moment you Danone is playing the premium card, differentiating India approach, you itself on the quality platform. Its products are also cannot control cheese or paneer, the staples of any dairy company in India (although everything in the company does sell ultrahigh temperature, or UHT, milk in Tetrapak regions"—RS cartons). Ebert states quite firmly that Danone is a company that presence at nearly every kirana store. Instead, want to have a pan- Sodhi, all Managing director, GCMMF priced higher than the rest of the market: Danone’s lassi, for instance, sells at Rs 20 for 150 gm, where Ebert estimates local dairies would sell the same to be as quick in launching new products as we have since we quantity at Rs 15. “We are convinced quality products will find takers,” he says emphatically. That’s another reason entered the market in 2010,” he says. Danone is also being the company is in no hurry to extend its presence nation-wide — in conservative in extending its presence across the country. So far, the fact, even in the cities where it operates, it sticks mainly to modern company has established itself in only five big cities — Delhi, Mumbai, retailers where more affluent, quality-seeking consumers are likely to Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Pune — and doesn’t plan on adding a shop. sixth in the near future. “This is a complex market,” defends Ebert. Parag Milk Foods’ Shah says a pan-India presence isn’t necessary primarily makes fermented products. “In any case, we did not expect given Danone’s positioning. “The Kashmir to Kanyakumari footprint is important only if you have a mass product in the dairy segment,” he points out. At the same time, mass is certainly easier to handle than premium, as Shah knows first-hand. Two years ago, Parag launched a premium milk brand, Pride of Cows, priced at Rs 75 a litre (regular milk sells for around Rs 30 a litre, while UHT milk costs about Rs 50 per 1 litre carton). Not only is the milk sourced from a different herd (3,500 Holstein Freisian cows), the brand is also not handled by the 9 June, 2013 company’s regular distribution network — it moves directly from the Parag’s Shah uses two distribution models: the farm to depots in Mumbai and Pune before being delivered to the conventional consumer’s doorstep. “It is not an easy model to execute, though it is and producer-own distribution system (comprising now obvious to us that the consumer is willing to pay a premium for trucks, tempos, vans and motorcycles)-end consumer. quality. In fact, we think it is far tougher to satisfy the rich consumer in India today,” Shah adds. Raising the bar “State cooperatives The latter is used for the premium Pride of Cows have done brand, where Shah says he cannot take the risk of the much in the value- product getting spoiled or not reaching on time to the not added product segment. This homes of his limited but important clients. “To have its big own distribution network, a brand needs premium For its part, Danone is going the extra mile to ensure it meets gives customers’ — and its own — quality standards. The company has opportunity to new created its own distributor model, which is quite different from the usual producer-distributor-retailer network that most dairy companies producer-wholesaler-distributor-retailer a entrants"—Girish pricing as well as adequate volumes. We can’t do that Nadkarni, Partner, for our mass brands because it is too expensive,” he IDFC Private Equity says. “The USP of having your own distribution is use. Here’s how it works. Most of Danone’s production is outsourced. Milk — all versions, including slim and UHT — and packaged curd are manufactured at the Schreiber Dynamix Dairy facility at Baramati, Maharashtra; fresh products such as lassi and flavoured yogurt are made at a company-owned factory at Rai, Haryana. clean and fresh products and consumers will willingly pay a premium for that.” Still, when consumers aren’t even aware of the extra effort and expenditure in ensuring freshness, does it translate into market The cold chain, though, is entirely owned and Danone’s milk share? Danone insists that the company’s promise is of quality and operated by the company. “Irrespective of where moves directly from that’s what is providing. Retailers, meanwhile, say that the branded the products are made, we use our own cold depots before chillers do help sway consumers towards the brand since it makes the chain being delivered to brand top of mind when they’re in the store — the jo dikhta hai, woh and distribution,” points out Ebert. Danone’s fresh products leave the factory in the factory to its the consumer bikta hai principle of retail. It helps that Danone also offers higher trucks owned by the company to be stored at its own warehouses margins than its rivals. According to a supermarket owner in a (one in each city where the company sells). “The trucks maintain Mumbai suburb, the margins on Danone dahi are Rs 9-10 on an MRP temperature of 4-8 degrees Celsius to ensure quality. From the of Rs 45. Nestlé offers Rs 7-8 on a retail price of Rs 40, while Amul warehouse, our trucks move the products to retail outlets where we provides just Rs 2-3 margins on an MRP of Rs 35. “Our move has have our coolers,” he adds. The fleet of 70-100 trucks makes up to paid off,” reiterates Ebert. “We are the largest sellers of dahi in Pune four trips a week to retailers in the five cities. “Our logistics costs must and the second or third-largest in Mumbai.” be twice as high as competition,” Ebert guesses. Interestingly, where Danone is spending hand over fist on its Certainly, the costs seem prohibitive. Ebert declines to share numbers distribution network, it’s following a need-based approach to shelling but market sources say each chiller costs Danone Rs 10,000-12,000 out cash. Which means the company is perfectly happy to do away — and the company is said to have distributed at least 3,500 across with some things other companies in the FMCG space may consider India. In addition, the company pays dealers up to Rs 500 every hygiene if it doesn’t see the need. Earlier this month, the company month to house the refrigerator. Then, the running cost of each truck spent some serious money on advertising, signing on Karisma Kapoor is a staggering Rs 80,000 per month. as brand ambassador for a campaign with a new tagline, “Only Good That’s not how other companies operate. Their products are delivered in simple, distributors’ tempos. Amul uses only third-party distributors, says RS Sodhi, managing director of the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF), which owns the Amul brand. “We work on wafer-thin margins of 3-5% net in fresh products. If we had our own distribution network, costs will go out of control,” Sodhi points Gets In”. But here’s the shocker — Danone didn’t hire an agency for the creatives — its in-house marketing team and a production house, Illuminations Productions, produced the film by themselves. “We knew what we wanted to show in the ad and just shot it,” says Ebert. Upbeat about value-adds out. The second and more important reason is that an owned Will distribution will work if a product is available only in a few cities. “The strategy and focus on high-end moment you want to have a pan-India approach, you cannot control products rather than just milk everything in all regions. In that context, it makes sense for us to (which makes up 77% of the outsource distribution.” Danone’s premium-only market) work? “Even today, 70% of milk is sold loose and we see a huge, untapped opportunity to convert loose milk into packaged milk,” says Kandarp Singh, managing director, South Asia, Tetra Pak. Still, dairy companies point out that it’s better to be an “anything 10 June, 2013 except milk” rather than an “only milk” player, given the low net operations there, and that project was meant to be the foundation for margins in the business. “At best, polypack milk will offer you 2-3% net what was planned in India. margins and it will be difficult for any player to remain in only that segment,” says Sodhi. The other challenge in the business is ensuring In October 2011, Danone announced the creation of a a good backward integration model. “Issues such as milk procurement separate business unit (Danone BoP India) that would are tricky. It is easier for a cooperative like us since profit is not the create products aimed at that section and launched its objective unlike the case of the private players,” he points out. first product, Fundooz, at the time. A food brand for offers If that’s not a worry for Danone, given that it higher margins on outsources production, the company’s product Danone its products Modern retail has school children, the product was priced at Rs 5 for 70 allowed large gm. players to successfully sell compared with portfolio too may be an inspired choice. Parag’s what and Shah concedes that being in the yogurt business flavoured yogurt executing a BoP model well, as Ebert points out, lies (he has products like packaged curd and fruit and in bringing in volumes quickly. To do that, though, you Amul Nestlé offer products such as packaged curd" —Kishore yogurt) is a good idea. “Margins are a healthy 12% and it is certainly a lucrative market to be in,” he adds. Biyani, CEO, Future Group It was a Catch-22 situation. The challenge in need to advertise, which will lead to increased costs and, ultimately, higher prices. “We soon realised that the category was not well-established like confectionery, which is what Girish Nadkarni, partner, IDFC Private Equity, agrees that the big opportunity lies in the value-added segment, which includes cheese, flavoured yogurt, dairy-based drinks and so on. “A category like cheese has been growing by 14% and is driven by high demand from quick-service restaurants such as Pizza Hut,” he points out. IDFC Private Equity, in September last year, invested Rs 155 crore in Parag Milk Foods for an estimated 20% stake. The real opportunity for the children really like,” points out Ebert. The Tetrapak version of Fundooz, manufactured at the Rai plant and priced at Rs 25, is still around, although the BoP version has been withdrawn. Ebert says he and Danone have learnt a valuable lesson from the experience: first establish the mother brand before launching subsidiary brands. “For now, the BoP plan in India is on the backburner. The focus is very much on dahi,” he says. private sector, says Nadkarni, comes from the fact that the sector is mostly unorganised with Amul being the largest player. “There is not The other project that bombed was Creamix, a stirred yogurt positioned very much that the state cooperatives have managed to do in the as a dessert snack. Launched in September 2011, it was priced at Rs value-added product segment and this is the big opportunity for new 20 for 100 gm. “We thought the Indian consumer would like it. entrants,” he says. Obviously, it was a mistake,” confesses Ebert. The potential in the stirred yogurt market came from the fact that at least half the market Large retailers, too, are upbeat about the market for value-added products in the dairy space, especially yogurt. “The fact is that this category did not exist five years ago simply because there were very few chillers available. Modern retail has allowed large players to successfully sell products such as flavoured yogurt and packaged curd,” says Future Group CEO, Kishore Biyani, who owns the Big Bazaar chain of supermarkets. Biyani is convinced that modern retail will continue to open up new opportunities for companies in the packaged foods space. “Companies that can sell hygienic products will thrive and consumers will be willing to pay for it,” he says. More worldwide was not set dahi but stirred. “It was not a product the consumer was expecting and we were a little too early with it,” he says. Creamix has retreated from the field, perhaps to return to battle some other day. For now Danone is focusing on the existing Danone spends product only when needed. portfolio, which Ebert considers a Instead of hiring an formidable arsenal. Indeed, even in its group outside agency, it companies in India, Danone doesn’t do too many made its own ad new launches, preferring to sweat the ones already film importantly, Biyani sees the move to packaged foods as a game in the market. Yakult is perhaps an extreme example. Yakult Danone, changer. “Once you [the customer] adopt this category, you will never a 50:50 JV between Danone and Yakult Honsha of Japan, has just one go back to the traditional way of preparing the food. This is true product — probiotic health drink Yakult, which was launched in India in whether you buy curd or garlic paste,” he declares. 2007. But in a very niche market (Amul has the only other product in Set, not stirred India), Yakult is the leader. Similarly, Nutricia Baby Nutrition will continue working with the existing brands in its portfolio — Farex and It is not as if Danone’s run in India has been a cakewalk. Far from it. Protinex, among others — And the troubles weren’t only about the company’s history of bad blood phenomenon of fresh milk products takes off exponentially at one point with the Wadias (see: Danone in India). For a company that’s just three in time in any market. I don’t know how long that will take in India but years old, Danone India has already had its misses. The big one is we will do all we can to make that happen,” he says. Interestingly, he related to its interest in the base of the pyramid. The experience in speaks of how yogurt consumption has taken off in a big way in a large Bangladesh with Grameen Bank was a trigger to try something similar market like the US. “Per capita consumption was 5.6 kg five years ago in India. There, the French major launched Grameen Danone, a and is almost 10 kg now. There is no reason why something similar community-based business model that would offer affordable nutrition can’t happen in India,” thinks Ebert. for the foreseeable future. “The to malnourished children. Incidentally, it was Ebert who oversaw the 11 June, 2013 Unilever's Bargain Offer: Should You Hold On or Tender Your Shares? Source: http://forbesindia.com/article/boardroom/unilevers-bargain-offer-should-you-hold-on-or-tender-your-shares/35289/1 The consumer packaged goods giant has launched an open offer to Yet, whether this decisive shift in the balance of power towards buy back shares of HUL. Should investors rejoice? emerging markets translates into rich pickings for Indian investors is far from clear. For instance, would Damani be better off staying On April 30, Ramesh Damani was in invested in Hindustan Unilever? Or should he tender in his shares and for a pleasant surprise. The value of seek to earn higher returns from a clutch of other consumer stocks a substantial holding in his portfolio, that may not quite have the sheen or pedigree of a HUL stock but Hindustan have generated consistently higher returns? We’ll get to that in a bit. Unilever (HUL), had overnight zoomed 20 percent on the But first, what made Polman craft his open offer in the first place? back of the news that Unilever was launching an open offer to buy back The India Logic HUL shares. “I was jubilant,” says It’s not hard to see why he took this bold call. When he took over at Damani, a successful stock market Unilever in 2009, Polman had laid out an ambitious goal—to double investor. “There’s no way I’ll be revenues. While he’s not set a timeframe, Polman has emphasised surrendering my shares at these that it wasn’t the €80 billion number in itself that was important, but prices,” he says. inculcating a mindset of growth that was crucial to the company. Unilever’s global boss Paul Polman wants to be part of the In the last three years, Unilever has made rapid strides in getting next phase of India’s growth story there. Polman has managed to add €10 billion to take the topline to Damani had every reason to be happy. He’d long argued that the world over, consumer businesses were among the best to own as investors looked for stable growth, good cash flows and, in time, a high price to earnings multiple (PE). Now, he’d received an endorsement from the strongest possible source: Paul Polman, the global boss of the €50 billion consumer packaged goods giant Unilever, the world’s second biggest consumer packaged goods firm. While both Damani and Polman may have different reasons for their bullishness, the net result is the same—consumer businesses in India are extremely valuable. In the last five years, the BSE FMCG index has returned 242 percent, the highest among any index. €50 billion in the last three years. And a bulk of that growth came from emerging markets. While mature markets like the US and Europe have slowed, Unilever’s subsidiaries in places like India, Indonesia and Nigeria have been firing on all cylinders. Profits growth at HUL, for instance, has increased to 11.4 percent a year in the last five years, versus 5.2 a year in the last decade. But there’s one big hole in Unilever’s portfolio: China. Here, Unilever has some catching up to do. Analysts estimate that P&G is eight times larger than Unilever (both companies do not break out individual country sales). Polman realises that bridging the gap in China is not going to be easy. Instead, according to a chief investment officer at a leading local fund house who prefers to remain anonymous, the open Polman, who sees emerging markets (they bring in 55 percent of offer may be a signal that Polman may have decided to instead hitch revenue) as the next big lever of Unilever’s growth story, is investing a ride with the Indian growth story. big in the India growth story. After HUL hit its stride in the last four years, its parent company believes that this is an opportune time to invest in the next phase of growth in India. “From Unilever’s perspective, given their low cost of capital and long time horizon, much longer than even for long-term investors, a 2.6 percent return on capital in euro terms that would grow further over At $5.4 billion (Rs 29,220 crore), this ranks as the largest open offer the years would make sense,” says Bharat Shah, executive director at for an Indian company by its global parent. Simply put, HUL will pay ASK Group. shareholders Rs 600 a share for every share tendered—a 20.3 percent premium. In November, GSK Consumer had spent Rs 5,221 crore to buy back shares in its Indian subsidiary. With strong growth in the Indian consumer market, analysts at IDFC expect subsidiaries of Nestle, P&G Hygiene and Colgate Palmolive to follow suit. That’s why Polman’s open offer holds an interesting mirror to the Indian growth story. On the one hand, the fact that global firms like Unilever see higher potential for growth and earnings in markets like India, compared to their home markets in Europe and US, is beyond doubt. This current surge in confidence comes at a time when simmering doubts about the inherent strengths of developing and As organised retail ups its pie in India over the next decade, the ensuing battle for margins between emerging markets, particularly in the last two years, have cast a pall of retailers and consumer companies will only increase gloom over the broader investment climate. 12 June, 2013 More importantly, in buying into the Indian subsidiary, Polman is Over the course of the last decade, HUL has also become much more getting a higher return on capital than his cost of borrowing. With cash closely aligned with its global parent. Most important functions like reserves of €3 billion, Unilever would have to borrow very little to pay research and development, human resources and so on are now for the additional stake in HUL. Analysts say its borrowing rate is likely shared. Company insiders say there is a far greater cross pollination to be 1 percent at most. HUL’s earnings per share for FY13 was Rs of ideas between India and other subsidiaries. In January, HUL’s 17.6. At a purchase price of Rs 600 a share, Unilever stands to make board voted to up royalty payments to Unilever from the present 1.4 2.6 percent a year. And with profit likely to grow every year, the return percent to 3.15 percent by 2017, signalling another important intention is only likely to increase. “If one takes a long-term thirty-year view, to align more closely. And lastly, the company is working on an then it is a good deployment of their cash,” says Rajeev Thakkar, ambitious plan to treble its rural direct distribution reach. With this, chief executive at Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services Ltd. HUL has taken an important step to position itself for faster revenue Not everyone is equally supportive of Polman’s decision. An analysis growth in the years to come, say analysts. With a strong long-term published by Reuters Breakingviews says Polman, who declined to outlook, it’s no surprise that Polman has chosen to make this bet. speak to Forbes India, could have spent $4.7 billion to buy back 110 The Next Decade million of its own shares and boost its earnings more, at least in the While there’s a strong argument for Unilever to up its stake, fund short run, than the HUL buyback would. managers argue that there is an equally strong logic for minority But Polman is not one to take a investors to surrender their stock. On the face of it, that might seem short-term view. Soon after he like a piquant situation. Surely what’s good for Unilever is good for the took over in 2009, he refused to minority investor? Apparently not, say analysts. issue earnings guidance, saying For starters, HUL is likely to see a margin squeeze in the years to the thinking come. As organised retail ups its pie in India from 6 percent at present distracted the company from to 12-15 percent over the next decade, the ensuing battle for margins focusing on long-term profitable between retailers and consumer companies will only increase. Add to growth. He’s also focussed not that competition from private labels and the picture only gets worse. In only on topline and bottom line developed markets, both P&G and Unilever have had bruising battles growth but also on volume with the likes of Walmart and Tesco. There’s little to suggest that this growth, which he argues is a phenomenon will reduce the pricing power of consumer packaged key metric of the health of a goods firms. short-term business. In contrast to buying Unilever stock, the HUL buyback is expected to add no more than a few percentage points to Unilever’s earnings. Second, consumer goods companies in India will have to brace themselves for market share battles. In 2009, HUL and P&G sparred on detergents and Thakkar (of Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services) says there is no reason why such skirmishes couldn’t happen again. Colgate Palmolive has shown itself to be a worthy For HUL, the global CEO’s competitor confidence might be a shot in conglomerates have also upped their game in the past few years and the arm a period of are now formidable competitors. “The barriers to entry in this space painfully slow growth in the last are very low,” says a prominent fund manager who requested decade, when both revenue anonymity. after in the toothpaste space. Home-grown Indian growth and profit growth slowed between 2001 and 2007. Its stock price stagnated at the early Rs 200 levels. It’s only after April 2008, when Nitin Paranjpe took over as CEO, that the company has resumed Third, as the competitive intensity in the Indian market increases, companies are being made to work harder to make their products noticed by Indian consumers. Advertising and promotion expenses are rising, further crimping margins. Since 2007, advertising spends for HUL as a percentage of sales have gone up from 10.6 percent to 12.5 percent in 2012. its growth trajectory. So, longterm holders of the stock have seen their shares appreciate by 9.4 percent annually, while those who entered five years ago have seen them rise by 13.5 percent annually. 13 June, 2013 Fourth, there’s the spectre of If an investor’s time horizon is under five years, they’d advise their high commodity prices. The clients to sell. They declined to be named as they are not authorised last decade has seen a to discuss specific stocks. commodity super cycle with What if you hold out? crude and palm oil staying at peaks for the last four years. Still, High prices investors who plan to hold drove down gross margins at out. LIC, which has a 3.13 HUL from 51 percent in 2010 percent stake in HUL, does to not plan to surrender its 47 commodity percent according to in 2012, there shares. Morningstar. are According some to an Palm oil prices have eased article in Business Standard, in the last six months, but it’s an anybody’s guess which way company felt the HUL stock they’ll go in the next decade. would rise from its current LIC official levels, and said the the premium While there is nothing to suggest that these same competitive offered by Unilever wasn’t pressures won’t apply to other consumer goods companies, HUL attractive enough. Domestic being the largest could suffer greater damage. At some point, its sheer size could start to weigh it down and make it harder for it to grow. Also, smaller competitors would begin to nibble away at the margins. Regional brands have in the past given the company a run for its institutions and mutual funds are expecting about Rs 1,000 a share. They say that as they are long-term investors, they would not disinvest their shares in the open offer. money—Wheel two decades ago and more lately Ghadi and However, even for the Glaxo open offer, financial institutions like LIC Cavinkare. initially said they would not sell their shares, but later changed their So what does the minority shareholder do? The answer would depend on whether you believe the Indian market offers relatively better opportunities for wealth creation. According to Sanjoy Bhattacharyya, managing partner at Fortuna Capital and a Forbes India columnist, there are indeed other stocks that an investor can put money in to generate a higher return. First, let’s see how much investors can make, if they stick with HUL for the next decade, a reasonable time horizon for a long-term investor. At present, HUL has earnings per share of Rs 17.5. Over the last five years, the company has grown profits by 11.4 percent. Now, let’s mind. So whether such posturing gives way to pragmatism in this case remains to be seen. It’s also unlikely that enough individual shareholders will surrender their stock for the company to get to the 75 percent mark. HUL has so far maintained that it does not plan to delist. Some of this behaviour may be partly linked to emotion, rather than rational logic. After all, for many long-term investors, HUL was indeed the gold standard. The stock gave them consistent returns for decades. Despite the setbacks in the better part of the last decade, investors still attach a sense of security to the stock. assume a best case scenario—the company grows faster, margins Meanwhile, Damani says he has no plans to surrender his shares. improve and more people up trade to its higher value products. With a The Unilever offer is a vindication of the fact that HUL still has a lot of profit growth of 18 percent and a price to earnings multiple of 30, the growth to come. According to him, the business is growing, has stock would trade at Rs 2,730 a decade from now, or an annual gain of consistent cash flows and has a good return on capital. 12 percent. “In a market where there are such few quality stocks, why surrender This, according to analysts, is not enough. As our table shows, HUL’s one of the few quality stocks you have?” he asks. He scoffs at the competitors—ITC, Nestle, Colgate Palmolive, Dabur and GSK notion that consumer stocks are expensive. What’s to suggest the Consumer—have all grown faster than HUL in the last five years. Also, price earnings multiple won’t reach 50 tomorrow, he asks. one has to remember that the parent will take away royalty income, Damani may well be proven right. For the moment though, most which made up 2 percent of profit last year. experts aren’t ready to take a long-term call on the stock that was Shah of ASK says the justification for a Rs 600 price per share would once the darling of the Indian markets. imply a compounded profit growth of 18 percent for the next decade fetching investors a 12 percent return. According to Shah, given HUL’s history and the size of the opportunity, that sounds like an ambitious target. He points to stocks like Asian Paints, Nestle, ITC, Marico, Page Industries, TTK Prestige that are likely to give a much better return. His view is consistent with the analysts Forbes India spoke to. 14 June, 2013 Karl Slym has a Fix for the ailing Tata Motors Slym’s promise of 90 days ended in December 2012. It is now actually Source: http://forbesindia.com/article/boardroom/karl-slym-has-a-fix-for-the-ailing-tata-motors/35221/1 more than 180 days but Wasan hasn’t heard from him. Ghosh has Karl Slym wants to change the way Tata Motors makes and sells its since quit to join Hyundai. According to sources, in the last financial cars. But the cars he has don’t sell; and his idea of those that will year Wasan’s Tata dealership made a loss of about Rs 6 crore. This should take at least two years to hit the market March, he sold only 70 units. Now he is seriously contemplating pulling the plug. He won’t be the only one to have done that. In the last two years, Tata Motors has lost three large dealers in Mumbai, one in Pune, one in Chandigarh, two in Hyderabad and two in Delhi. Today Tata Motors’ domestic car business is on a sticky wicket. Sales for FY2013 dropped by almost 29.2 percent to 2,22,112 units from 3,13,710 units in FY2012. In the December quarter, the standalone business posted a loss of Rs 458 crore. Analysts are expecting another loss in the current quarter. On the products front, in 2012-13 the Nano has utilised only 20 Karl Slym Age: 50 Career: Started at Toyota as senior manager; spent more than 25 years in GM across roles and geographies, including seven years as percent of its production capacity of 2,50,000 units at Sanand, Gujarat. Almost all of Tata’s other vehicles (Indica Vista, Manza, Safari, Sumo Grande, Aria) have been beaten in their respective segments by local and global competitors. head of GM’s India operations. Joined Tata Motors in October 2012. A former Tata Motors senior official, who spent more than a decade at Education: MSc in business administration, Stanford University the company and spoke on condition of anonymity, says this is the Interests: Music, Bollywood, cricket and travelling result of lack of focus, poor allocation of resources and narrow vision It was October 2012. Karl Slym, the new managing director of Tata for the car business. “In the last five years, there were just too many Motors, had just joined office. And he was keen to get a pulse of the things vying for attention. First, there was making the Nano itself. organisation quickly. Slym asked Tapan Ghosh, regional manager Then Singur and taking the plant to Sanand. Then fires in the Nano. (west) in the passenger vehicles division, to fix up a meeting with Then Jaguar Land Rover. All of this meant that everything that had Kasturi Wasan, owner of Wasan Motors, one of the oldest and largest been planned for the car business was getting postponed. And we dealers of Tata cars in the country. The meeting was fixed at Wasan’s never had enough money to invest in building a pipeline for our Tata-Fiat dealership in Chembur, Mumbai, at 5 pm. Slym walked into existing brands,” he says. Wasan’s sprawling fourth floor office, overlooking the Sion-Trombay road, with two of his colleagues—Prashant Fadnavis, head of marketing services, and Ghosh. After exchanging pleasantries, Slym got down to business, “So Mr Wasan, how is it going?” Of course, Cyrus P Mistry, the chairman of Tata Sons, has taken notice. He asked the organisation to buckle up in his Lake House address to employees on April 1. “The last four years witnessed fierce competition in the passenger car market, with the entry of seven new Wasan had been waiting for this opportunity for a long time and he global manufacturers and the introduction of 150 new models. The didn’t hold back. Sales had plummeted to 225 units per month commercial vehicle segment too faced challenges with the entry of compared to an average of 900 units in 2008-09. Despite all kinds of new players like Bharat Benz,” he said. “It is time to meet them and marketing pushes—buy a Nano with a credit card, exchange your old beat them in their backyard.” In his meetings with the top motorcycle for a Nano—the car had remained a non-starter. It was the management, Mistry has been pushing towards making the car same story with the Manza, the Indica, the Safari and the Aria. There business profitable, developing “futuristic products that are truly world were hardly any footfalls in his showroom and his sales staff was class” and to draw lessons from the turnaround of Jaguar Land Rover. demoralised. Lord Kumar Bhattacharyya, founder and chairman of the Warwick “With these issues, I will not have enough money to even pay salaries Manufacturing group, who was part of the five-member search to my staff. In fact, I have been thinking of closing this dealership committee that selected Mistry as Ratan Tata's successor believe because I have been making losses for the last two years,” he told Mistry will do he can to make the company a success. “Let me tell Slym. you, Cyrus is a very forensic man. He has got a tremendous mind. The new MD heard him out patiently. At the end of the meeting, which And he will not go on a whim or fashion, he will do whatever is right for lasted about 90 minutes, Slym said, “No, Mr Wasan, don’t give up. the company as a business. And it has to make money. Cyrus is not Give me 90 days and I will do something. If you still think your going to tolerate any weaknesses in the organisation. dealership is not viable, then you are free to go.” 15 June, 2013 Car companies cost a lot of money, they should not only be designed cash from operating activities has dropped from Rs 6,154 crore in well but also made well and sold well.” March 2008 to Rs 3,653 crore in March 2012. Lord Bhattacharyya should know. He has seen the company’s steep Jinesh Gandhi, equity research analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities, decline from close quarters and believes that Ratan Tata’s vision for says, “Right now, the private vehicle [car] business is being funded by the car business was let down by the senior management at the the company. “Ratan, as far as cars are concerned, it is in his blood. But contributions from JLR. There are no restrictions in terms of he is not going to go and sell cars. It is up to Tata Motors to sell. movement of cash across divisions. But going forward it is not going Somehow, Tata Motors lost touch with the market. They had an iconic to be that easy. The commercial vehicles business is going through a car like Nano, which Ratan had produced but it never got the due cyclical downturn which we hope will make some recovery next year. respect in marketing. If it was in any other country, it would have been And JLR has its own investment commitments of about £2.5 billion a great success,” he says. next year and the year after that. So free cash flow will be curtailed.” The Problem This is where Karl Slym’s million-dollar assignment comes in. Can he The story of Tata Motors is also the story of two companies: Tata Motors India and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). Its current state of affairs reflects in its financial performance. commercial vehicles [trucks and buses] business and change the fortunes of this division of Tata Motors? He’s confident he can. Losing Touch with the Market Ralf Speth is the man leading the charge at JLR. During his tenure, the company has But first, Tata Motors must get back in touch with the market. Let’s understand how it lost touch in the first place. grown There’s the story of Safari18. In early 2006, the Safari18 project was dramatically. In the 12 months to initiated at the Engineering and Research Centre at the Tata Motors March 31, 2012, JLR generated plant in Pune. The old Safari had been Tata’s workhorse in the sports profit after tax of £1.4 billion utility vehicle (SUV) segment for over seven years and it urgently compared to £1 billion in the year needed a refresh—the ‘18’ stood for 18 months. By industry ending March 31, 2011. The standards, that’s a healthy target. Except that it was never achieved. company’s increased Instead, it took Tata Motors six years to finally get the vehicle out and from £9.8 billion in March 2011 to the new Safari Storme was launched only in October 2012. Total £13.5 billion in March 2012. In money spent: About Rs 400 crore. revenue 2012, the company sold 3,57,773 vehicles, up 30 percent over 2011. Today, almost 90 percent of Tata Motors’ profits and more than 70 percent of its turnover comes from JLR. In the automotive business and especially in a cut-throat market like India, a mistake like this can prove to be quite costly. In the last six years, sales of utility vehicles in India have skyrocketed. The market has grown by almost four times to more than 5,53,000 units per year. In this same period, utility vehicles manufacturer Mahindra & Mahindra launched three completely new vehicles (Xylo, XUV 500 Now contrast JLR’s performance and Quanto) while refreshing its existing portfolio (Bolero and Thar). with Indian Even India’s largest car maker Maruti Suzuki, which was primarily a operations. While the company small car manufacturer, launched a hugely successful UV from does scratch called Ertiga. There’s also Renault’s big bang entry into the Tata not Motors’ release separate and SUV space with Duster, which has captured the fancy of Indian commercial vehicles business, customers. Who was caught napping? Tata Motors. In a segment in Tata Motors’ net profit from its which it enjoyed pole position just a few years back. Indian operations has dropped by Then there is another way to lose ground—a dramatic flux in the top almost 40 percent in the last five management team. Come to think of it, Karl Slym, who joined office in years. The company reported a October 2012, is the only CEO (for its car business) that Tata Motors net profit (standalone) of Rs has had in a long time. numbers 1,242 for crore its in car March 2012 compared to Rs 2,029 crore in March 2008. Its return on capital employed (ROCE) from its India (standalone) operations has dropped from 18.96 percent in March 2008 to 10.36 percent in March 2012. The company’s standalone net It all started with the Nano debacle and the exit of Rajiv Dube as head of the passenger car business in May 2010. This was soon after Carl Peter Forster came in as the global CEO of the company. Forster brought in Ralf Speth to head JLR. Prakash Telang was elevated from head of commercial vehicles business to MD, India operations. R Ramakrishnan, the champion of Tata’s successful takeover of South 16 June, 2013 Korea’s Daewoo Motors in the commercial vehicles business, was A car is an aspirational purchase. A Tata vehicle is far from that. The air-lifted to take over Dube’s role and began reporting to Telang. connotations associated with it are ‘value for money’ and ‘taxi’. Almost Soon, it was head of car product group Nitin Seth’s turn to leave and join Ashok Leyland. Till date, Seth has poached about 34 people from his former employer. Seth was soon replaced by Niraj Srivastava, regional manager (west) of the commercial vehicles business. Around the time of Seth’s exit, SG Saxena, head of Tata’s utility vehicles business, also quit to join JCB. In May 2011, Forster quit Tata Motors citing personal reasons. Telang retired in 2012. Srivastava quit last year to join Audi India. So, for about three years, Tata’s car business was run by people who had made their career in the commercial vehicles business. It is not a surprise then that consultants believe that Tata’s passenger vehicle business has been run just like its commercial vehicles business. all of Tata’s vehicles—Indica, Indigo, Sumo—are predominantly bought by fleet taxi owners. “Which is a good endorsement,” says Slym, “Because fleet buyers buy stuff that is good value for money and endurance. However, an overemphasis on fleet turns away the personal buyer. So this is the balance between what do you want as fleet and what do you want from a customer as aspiration, does he aspire to buy that car which he thinks as a taxi? So I think it is important for us to now have differentiation in our products.” This problem manifests itself at the point of sale. Harsh Vardhan, a former JWT executive, is an independent brand consultant who has worked closely with Tata Motors’ dealer subsidiary Concorde Motors. He spent months speaking to prospective customers and studying their buying experiences. What did he find? “There are serious image “Look at their product refresh cycles. While competition has added confrontations at the point of sale. Everybody is on the same floor— products one after the other, Tata Motors must have used all the the fleet taxi owner, the driver of a Sumo and this executive with his alphabets in the English language to launch one version after another wife looking at the Indica. It is a bit of a let-down of the executive’s of their old cars. That’s how you sell trucks not cars,” says a senior image which makes him think this car is not for me but for taxis,” he automotive consultant who did not want to be quoted. says. Slym found another vexing issue. What does a Tata car stand for? “If Maruti launched something that’s got excellent fuel economy, the emphasis is on the fuel economy. So, therefore, you have to focus on your strengths. The emphasis has got to be on the car. And I think we have had a little bit of disconnect between the company and the customer,” he says. Tata’s brand positioning has been at best confusing—‘more car per car’, ‘club class’, ‘reclaim your life’, ‘the real SUV’ and ‘a class apart’ are just a few examples. Scratch a bit more and one can find a more serious problem. Traditionally, there were three planks on which Tata Motors sold its vehicles: 1. Operating economics, aka diesel. 2. Cheap acquisition price. 3. Space. “Today we have lost all three. Our dominance as the only diesel player is long gone. Across all our segments, both multinationals and Indian companies have vehicles which are competitively priced. And the market has moved from driving around large families to self-drive vehicles. There as a brand we have lost relevance,” says a Tata Motors official who did not want to be quoted. A jolly man with an unmistakable sense of humour, Slym gets a bit Add to the above issues, the far larger problem where Tata’s product serious when discussing what really went wrong at Tata Motors. Slym development machinery has failed to regularly churn out new spent the first three months of his tenure meeting dealers, suppliers, products. Which leaves them today with a portfolio that could well customers and employees of the company. What he came back with have been from the early half of last decade. When was the last time in the shape of a SWOT analysis wasn’t very encouraging. “The worst Tata Motors launched a completely new vehicle? Slym adds, “This thing was our perception in the market as a passenger car maker. Our year, how many cars have seen growth? Only new cars, none of the market, brand, quality—whatever you want to say—as perception in old cars. When was my last new car launch? The Aria. Which was two the marketplace is not as good as we would like it to be. I think the years ago, so it has been a while. So that’s not in line with keeping label was earned, it didn’t come from anywhere,” he says. your name in line with the minds of people. It has been a problem for us in identifying where and when we want our products.” 17 June, 2013 While Tata Motors does not release standalone results for its car to wherever it is supposed to go. So I think there is a lot of business, experts estimate the company has invested more than Rs containment things that we are doing at the moment to be able to 5,000 crore in the Nano project. “Nano is not the whole and soul of protect while we put the countermeasure in place,” Slym adds. your strategy. But for political motivations within the company, there was never a vision that we should have a portfolio of cars. Some of that will be value for money. Others which will be cool, young and yuppie. In that same space Maruti has seven brands, Hyundai has three while Tata has just one—the Indica. How do you expect the His containment strategies can be summed up thus: Building an organisational structure that has accountability, fixing product planning, emphasis on quality and a strategy function that can plan for the future. company to compete?” adds the former Tata Motors official quoted He’s begun with tweaking the supply chain first. “We didn’t have a earlier. single purchasing organisation which I think was a huge shortcoming for us because we miss out on the benefits of our scale, we confuse a Analysts are also sceptical. Motilal Oswal Securities’ Jinesh Gandhi lot of things that way, so we have now got M Venkatraman as head of says, “The new management has enough understanding and purchasing. experience of the passenger vehicles business. But it will take at least three years to arrest the current situation. Given that the car business is a cash guzzler, it will require investments in new products and marketing. Most of that contribution will come from Jaguar Land Rover and the commercial vehicles business.” Instead of having eight purchasing centres and buying things for specific plants, we have centralised it,” he adds. Venkatraman is an old GM hand and his appointment is in line with the top-level changes that have accompanied Slym’s arrival at Tata Motors. In October 2012, Ranjit Yadav, country head of Samsung India’s mobile & IT business, was brought in to replace R Ramakrishnan as president of the car business. Neeraj Garg, former director of sales and marketing at Volkswagen India, was appointed as vice president. To fix issues in product planning and product management, Slym has changed their mandate and also ensured that the team reports directly to him. “We didn’t have a programme planning organisation, we had a programme monitoring or managing unit, as a result of which some of our vehicles have not been necessarily on time as we would like them,” he says. It is a big learning from the Aria debacle. “People in the beginning have to identify what’s happening in the world today and the future. And then the customers’ expectations three years ahead is designed and engineered into the car and we don’t lose anything along the way and we don’t let three years become six years either,” Slym says. If that were the case, the Aria should have been pitted right against The Containment Strategy Toyota Innova. He adds, “It looks quite similar and it sells quite some volumes in that area. There you go. But the Innova is Rs 9.95 lakh On December 18, 2012, Slym got together the top 82 leaders of Tata Motors to roll out what he calls his ‘One Team, One Vision’ plan. It has a fairly obvious message: Let’s focus on the customer. Quite often large companies take this route of identifying a common vision and the Aria was launched at Rs 14.5 lakh. So why do I pay Rs 5 lakh more than the Innova if we are looking at the same customer? You don’t. So that’s where we get back to the disconnect with the customer, not just at the point of sale.” document which everybody can relate to. Slym has done the same and he is pretty kicked about the result. “I was at Dharwad the other Poor quality has been a perennial issue with Tata’s passenger day and I asked the team at our all-employee meeting and they know vehicles. Slym is attempting to fix that and has created a team under the mission, they know the vision, they know the values, they are SB Bowankar (who will also report directly to him), whose sole job is motivated, so that to me is a good sign that the people can articulate it to focus on improving quality. “You can’t expect the manufacturing and we have done a good job of rolling it out,” says Slym. guy to take care of quality. You have got to have the supplier delivering the right thing which is from our design and engineering etc, The man is a firm believer in the principal that an organisation should so we now have a quality function standalone reporting to me but be able to maintain a healthy balance between short- and long-term looking at the full piece of quality from the very early design,” he adds. objectives. Something that he found amiss at Tata Motors. “I think there are two words that sometimes don’t translate well together— there’s containment and countermeasure. Countermeasure stops the problem occurring at the root and containment stops it from getting out 18 June, 2013 Last but not the least is strategy. “I have been internally critical of the Most of these measures look fantastic on paper. But the question is fact that in some places we haven’t got products where if we want to how long before they can translate into something real on the ground? be a volume manufacturer we have got to have products. So we now Slym knows this bit of the story thanks to the promises he has made have a strategy group that not only looks at products but also looks at to dealers. But how long will it take? our overall business strategy as well to make sure we have got binoculars on, as I call it, to see not tomorrow, 2013 or 2014 but what will happen in 2016, 17, 18 and how we are preparing for that. Whether that be a product opportunity, a country opportunity even legislation or fuel type and all those kind of things,” he says. Slym says, “It is not just that piece on quality. It is also everything else. Some things have happened already but you know how long a vehicle development cycle takes, so therefore, a new vehicle coming to market will be a number of years. So those kind of things coming into the market which is new, new, new vehicles with platforms and things like that will be a number of years.” Is this going to be a case of too little, too late? 19 June, 2013 Legal methods US MNCs like Apple, Google deploy to cut taxes on non-US profits Source: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-30/news/39629043_1_tax-practices-tax-rules-tax-gimmicks Some of the largest US multinationals resort to ingenious ”though legal ”practices to pay virtually no tax on their non-US profits, much to the growing governments and chagrin civil of society. ET outlines the five methods they deploy to avoid taxes One of them has a subsidiary in Ireland that does not pay income tax to any government in the world. Another has negotiated with the government of Puerto Rico to pay tax of just 2% on its profits. A third sells 4 billion pounds of goods in the UK, but pays just 2.4 million pounds in tax or an effective rate of 0.06% in that country because, thanks to a nifty corporate structure, another arm in Luxembourg, a tax haven, earns those profits. All three practices abide by the rules of whichever land they operate in. The companies behind these practices are Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, respectively. In another form, in another country, it could be just about any large US corporation with a global footprint pursuing and profiting from tax practices that are legal, but push the boundaries of good form. According to Rohan Phatarphekar and Himanshu Parekh, partners in audit firm KPMG, the law hasn't kept pace with how business has These are among the world's largest, most profitable and most evolved, and companies are exploiting that gap. "To some extent, it respected companies. Yet, when it comes to the taxes they pay as a must be acknowledged that the legislative as well as the treaty portion of their profits, they bring the rear in giving to a pool to which framework has not kept pace with rapid changes in the nature of every citizen is expected to contribute to enable governments to work international trade and commerce," they told ET, in an email and build nations. So, while US citizens pay 39.6% in the highest slab response. "Taxpayers will try and structure their operations in a and companies registered there 35%, Apple pays 13.8%, Google manner which is within the parameters of law as well as tax effective. 15.2% and Microsoft 15.7%. Having said that, the substance over form issue is relevant and needs to be satisfied in any structuring." Increasingly, governments are becoming more discerning, civil society more strident and the media more inquisitive of such tax numbers and In the days to come, if the world continues to grow less tolerant of tax practices. In the past year, the UK has seen the gradual release of tax havens and corporate tax practices, the 'substance over form' filter will figures and practices relating to Amazon, Starbucks and Google. be applied more often, especially to these five ways that US multinationals actively deploy, with devastating effect, to reduce their More recently, the spotlight has turned to the US, where investigations done by a committee of its legislators have been critical of the tax practices of Apple, Microsoft and Hewlett Packard. "What has become tax liability outside. Use transfer pricing to reduce non-US profits... totally clear now is the global rules on taxing corporations do not work," says John Christensen, director, Tax Justice Network, London, The US taxes corporate profits at 35%. But multinationals need not which works in the area of tax advocacy. pay tax in the US on profits they keep outside the country. Which is what most of them do. According to the US senate panel's report, 17 The US report has outlined how Apple, for example, exploited gaps in companies had $294 billion cash parked outside, or 52-92% of the the tax rules of different countries, set up entities in low-tax total cash held by them. Some of this is in tax havens, which have low jurisdictions, and routed transactions through and within those entities. tax rates. For example, Ireland, which is integral to the practices of Even as US legislators slammed Apple's practices as "convoluted" Apple and Microsoft, has a tax rate of 12.5%. Companies try to reduce and "pernicious", the company's CEO Tim Cook, in a Congressional this further by using transfer pricing the rules that govern inter- hearing last week, said the company did not "depend on tax company transactions within the same ownership. gimmicks". 20 June, 2013 Take Microsoft, whose operating systems reside in computers across "Second, it has no controlled foreign company rules to challenge tax the world. In 2011, according to the US senate investigations haven abuse." subcommittee, the company incurred 85% of its $9.1 billion research and development (R&D) expenditure in the US. Yet, for tax purposes, Microsoft showed only 35% of this as contributed by Microsoft US. Even better, form two Irish companies By setting up more than one subsidiary in Ireland, and structuring Instead, Microsoft apportioned it to subsidiaries around the world in transactions between them, companies can lower even the 12.5% proportion to the revenues earned by them termed a 'cost-sharing rate. The first Irish subsidiary, say A, will buy the intellectual property arrangement'. Thus, if its Irish arm accounted for 30% of its global rights (IPR) from its US parent by participating in a cost-sharing revenues, 30% of Microsoft's R&D spend was expensed by this entity, agreement. This company would be controlled and managed outside enabling it to reduce its net profit further. Apple has a similar structure, Ireland, usually in the US, as in the case of Apple, or in a tax haven where economic rights of intellectual property for non-US sales are like Bermuda. transferred to an Irish subsidiary. This Irish arm earned pre-tax profits of $22 billion in 2011, but Apple paid tax of just $10 million on that income an effective tax rate of 0.05%. Since, it's controlled outside Ireland, it need not pay tax in Ireland. In the second step, A sub-licences the IPR to B, the second Irish subsidiary. Usually, B would be selling the company's product and The senate panel report says: "Several aspects of the cost-share services in non-US locations. So, for B, income would be in the form agreement, and Apple's research and development and sales of sales and the expense would be payment of licensing fee to A, practices, suggest that the agreement functions primarily as a conduit enabling it to lower its tax outgo further. This method is referred to as to shift profits offshore to avoid US taxes...The transfer of intellectual 'double Irish'. property rights to Ireland via the cost-sharing agreement appears to play no role in the way Apple conducts its commercial operations." ...as well as US profits Microsoft has transferred some IPRs to Microsoft Ireland Research (MIR), which does sales in Europe, Middle East and Africa. In 2011, MIR paid its US parent $2.8 billion for these IPRs. MIR, in turn, Companies have also been transferring and reducing their US profits licensed this IPR to another Irish entity, earning $9 billion. And it made and tax liability. For example, Microsoft has a Puerto Rican subsidiary, a profit of $4.3 billion by just buying (economic rights of IP) and re- Microsoft Operations Puerto Rico (MOPR), which holds the rights to selling (license of IP). A US senate panel report says Microsoft saved sell to US customers. MOPR makes copies of Microsoft software and $4.5 billion in taxes between 2009 and 2011 by offshoring profits. ships it to the US. "The US entities retain 53% of the gross profits and Similarly, Apple has three Irish entities. send the remaining 47% to MOPR in Puerto Rico, where it is taxed at a pre-negotiated rate of around 2%", says an earlier US Senate's The first is Apple Operations International (AOI), which is owned investigation subcommittee. By this method, the report adds, Microsoft 100% by Apple Inc. This entity owns most of Apple's offshore entities. saved $4.5 billion in taxes during three years. In Ireland, AOI owns Apple Operations Europe and Apple Sales Form an Irish company, but control it from the US International. AOI is a non-tax resident of Ireland and has not paid any tax for the last three years. It is managed by three directors, two of The tax laws of most countries, including the US, apply to companies whom are US-based Apple employees. Between 2006 and 2012, AOI on the basis of where they are registered. Thus, if a company is held 33 board meetings, 32 of them in Apple's US headquarters in registered in the US, it is taxed in the US. Ireland is different, in that it Cupertino, California. The lone Irish director participated in just seven uses 'control' as the basis of taxation. Thus, a company that is meetings, of which six were over the phone. Apple told the registered in Ireland but controlled from, say, the US will not be liable investigation panel that AOI's assets were managed, and its to be taxed. Multinationals exploit this loophole extensively. For accounting record (general ledger) was maintained, in the US. example, an Apple subsidiary, Apple Operations International, earned $30 billion in net profit between 2009 and 2012. "Apple indicated that no AOI bank accounts or management personnel are in Ireland," the report states. Another Irish subsidiary But the firm never declared tax residence and paid no tax. Ireland's that is owned by AOI indirectly is Apple Sales, which held the low corporate income tax rate of 12.5% is its main attraction. Apple, economic rights to Apple's IPR. It booked huge profits by procuring says the US senate panel report, negotiated a special tax rate of 2.5% from Chinese suppliers and selling to Apple distributors in various with the government there. Google, too, routes 88% of its non-US countries. Apple Sales in Ireland distributed its profits as dividend to sales via its Irish subsidiary. According to Richard Murphy, director of its parent. Thus, AOI received $ 29.9 billion in dividends between UKbased Tax Research LLP, which does tax research and advocacy, 2009 and 2012, and it did not even file a tax return or pay any tax on companies can whittle down effective tax rates in Ireland to virtually it. zero. "First, it (Ireland) does not have any effective transferpricing rules. So, goods, services, assets, royalties, management fees and other 'costs' that reduce Irish profits to next to nothing can all move out of Ireland to tax havens without questions being asked," he says. 21 June, 2013 Go Dutch To Save Withholding Tax The Dutch company will be placed between the two Irish firms, A Ltd and B Ltd. So, if B Ltd was paying royalties to A Ltd, then it would be Through the Irish subsidiaries, multinationals are able to reduce their liable for Irish withholding tax. But now the payment from B Ltd would liability significantly. But even the Irish subsidiaries alone are unable be routed first to the Dutch entity, which in turn would transfer almost to take care of the tax their subsidiaries might have paid in other the entire money received to A Ltd. This is because Irish tax laws countries. For example, if Apple sells a product in India, and the exempt withholding taxes on royalties on payments made to Indian entity pays fees to Apple Ireland for the use of IPR, the companies in other European Union countries. Since the Dutch payment is usually subject to a tax called withholding tax. company is placed in between two Irish firms, this method is called the This is paid to the Indian government. Having another layer in 'Dutch sandwich'. Netherlands addresses this problem. The Dutch tax system does not The Dutch central bank calls these entities 'special financial tax dividends and capital gains received from foreign subsidiaries. At institutions'. In 2009, it estimated, 90 billion euros in income was the same time, it has zero withholding taxes on outgoing interest and channelled through these 1,300-odd firms, mainly as dividends (from royalties. So, both the inward and outward flow of money is not taxed. equity interest) and interest income (intra-group loans); about 87% of In addition, the Netherlands has a multitude of tax treaties that the outward flows went to foreign group companies, with offshore reduces withholding taxes. So, effectively, if the payment goes from centres being the largest source of money as well as recipient. India to Netherlands, it will be subject to a lower withholding tax. Christensen of Tax Justice Network says companies are being Likewise from all countries with whom the Netherlands has a tax "duplicitous" when they claim that they are acting within the law. "For treaty. decades, they have been lobbying to set the laws in their favour, and they strenuously lobby against measures to improve on tax transparency," he adds. 22 June, 2013 How companies are using social media to take entry in new markets Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/How-companies-are-using-social-media-to-take-entry-in-newmarkets/articleshow/20098220.cms Companies are using conversations on social media platforms to shape entry strategies in new markets, address consumer grievances and communicate directly with target groups. Merely being present on social media is no longer sufficient for some of the world's largest corporations, who are turning to young technology ventures in India for help in decoding social chatter for business gain. These companies are using insights gained from conversations on Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms to shape entry strategies in new markets, address consumer grievances and communicate directly with target groups. "It (social media analytics) helps us converse in the proper context with the right audience and close business with customers," says Arun Balakrishnan, chief executive of the Indian arm of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. As a late entrant to India, Berkshire was up against established players like Axa Bharati and ICICI Lombard and needed unconventional digital marketing to get an edge. Last December the insurance provider turned to social media Many of these companies started out with basic services such as creating social media accounts and pages, and have now graduated to playing the role of social media consultants. Unmetric, founded by IITMadras graduates Lakshmanan Narayan, Joseph Varghese and Kumar Krishnasami, started out by helping local businesses such as restaurants and spas understand and use social media. analytics venture Salorix for help. The Bangalore-based firm used its analytics platform to mine millions of real-time social media conversations to identify top influencers in this segment. The volume of direct conversations around topics like health and travel insurance was minimal but people would talk about topics that are related - a loss of health plans when moving jobs or travel insurance for a summer holiday. The challenge for Salorix was to link the insurer with such customers. "After all, rarely does anyone get up in the morning and express the need to buy insurance on Twitter," says Anup Ghoshal, Salorix India's head for business development. The four-year-old venture, founded by IITBombay alumnus Santanu Bhattacharya, ran a six-week campaign that helped Berkshire increase its follower base on social media by 80% and engagement ninefold. By 2016, large corporations are expected to spend around $9.8 billion (Rs 55,000 crore) on social-media advertising, from $3.8 billion in 2011, according to research firm BIA/Kelsey. Ensuring this money is well-spent is high on the agenda of most companies, say experts. "Brands are using analytics to understand who they are interacting with, what users like and how to create communication to reach out to the right audience," says Ashesh Jani, a partner at Deloitte Haskins & Sells. This is throwing up huge opportunities for startups such as Salorix, Chennai & New York-based Unmetric, Simplify360 and Drizzlin, that are sifting through social data to deliver actionable insights. The Chennai-based venture was launched in 2010 as EyesAndFeet. But in a year, the founders realised there was value in analysing the data being generated by large enterprises. They developed a software platform that can sift through billions of bits of data on social media and analyse it through selflearning algorithms. Within a month they raised a first round funding of $3 million (about Rs 16 crore) from Nexus Venture Partners. Today with customers like Subway, Toyota, Airtel and Australian bank Suncorp, the two-year-old company is targeting revenue of $15 million (Rs 82 crore) in fiscal year 2015. "Markets are truly all about conversations. Brands need a new suite of analytics solutions to keep them on top of competitive campaign activity and to mine actionable insights," says Narayan. Large companies are also looking to create targeted communication on social media, a service offered by Bangalore-based social media analytics venture Simplify360. "Reputation management and sentiment analysis has become very important on social media and analytics can help us there," says Vasudev Murthy, a senior practice partner at Wipro Consulting Services, which has partnered with the Simplify360 to provide social media solutions for its clients. One of Wipro's clients, a large Indian bank, now has a technology dashboard that highlights in real time any negative talk on social media. Deep Sherchan, the 28-year-old cofounder of Simplify360, says his company charges between Rs 10,000 and Rs 1 lakh per month for the cloud-based platform. It counts Cafe Coffee Day, Mahindra Retail and ITC Foods among its 35 clients. 23 June, 2013 By fiscal 2014 the company expects to clock revenue of Rs 17 crore. Such ventures are also finding a ready clientele among advertising and digital agencies. "Every month, the marketers and social media teams at companies and agencies need to report the impact of the money being spent on these sites. Our analytics helps to measure the impact," Sherchan says. Entrepreneurs admit that it is still early days for social media analytics. Deepak Goel, cofounder of Drizzlin Media India, says brands have so far mainly focused on changing communication according to the analytics. Drizzlin works like a social media consultant for clients like Lenovo and quick service restaurant KFC. "Few have reached the stage of creating products and services based on analytics. That would be the ultimate use," says Goel. 24 June, 2013 Crash of the rupee and how it impacts you Source: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-27/news/39557333_1_rupee-petrol-and-diesel-dollar The rupee has continuously fallen against the dollar this month. Last week it fell below the key psychological level of 56 to the dollar, its lowest level since September 2012, as the dollar rallied on worries about a potentially early end to the US monetary stimulus. The rupee has also been impacted by a weak China manufacturing survey, which increased concerns over the world's second largest economy. Here's how a falling rupee impacts your investments Where you gain > NRIs remitting money back home are effectively putting more money into their family's wallets as they will get more rupees for every dollar remitted. > Export oriented companies and those with significant foreign currency revenues will benefit from the rupee decline. This is because they will earn more rupees for every dollar worth of goods sold or Where it hurts assets held. > Companies with foreign currency borrowings or those importing raw > Domestic gold prices are likely to receive a boost on account of the materials from abroad take a hit. declining rupee. Individuals in global funds gain as the performance of > A weaker rupee may dampen FII sentiment as the value of their investments (in dollar terms) erodes. these funds in rupee terms gets multiplied to the extent of the fall in the rupee. > Foreign travel and overseas education become more expensive. > Weakening rupee will raise the cost of petrol and diesel. 25 June, 2013 11 Timeless Tips from Buffett and Munger Source: http://www.morningstar.in/posts/18037/11-timeless-tips-from-buffett-and-munger.aspx Investing is about much more than just numbers. Berkshire Hathaway probably enjoys more shareholder loyalty and One shareholder asked what quantitative metrics Buffett looks at dedication than any company in history. before buying a stock. The reality is that investing involves a large degree of subjective judgement. Buffett gave the example of a Year after year, shareholders return to Omaha to hear Warren Buffett basketball recruiter trying to pick a player for his team. He might be and Charlie Munger expound on topics large and small. And Buffett biased against a player who is 5 feet 4 inches tall, and he might get and Munger are nothing if not consistent. They have been following excited about a player who is 7 feet tall. But that information alone is the same common-sense investment philosophy for decades, and nowhere near sufficient to know who will be the better addition to the generously sharing the "secrets" to their success with anyone who team. Buffett and Munger can't buy stocks just based on financial cares to listen. As one shareholder put it in this year's introductory ratios; they need to understand how the business actually works. Both video, going to the Berkshire annual meeting is a bit like going to claimed not to know how to use a computer to screen for stocks. church. Shareholders know what they're going to hear, they already believe in Buffett and Munger's approach, but they keep coming back to have the message reinforced. Think like an owner. One of the most important lessons Buffett tries to convey at every opportunity is that investors should think like business owners. To be sure, it's one thing to understand Berkshire's investment Berkshire's managers evaluate stocks exactly the same way they philosophy and quite another to carry it out. With the goal of would if someone offered to sell them the entire companies. Far too reinforcing the message, here are some of the enduring lessons that many people treat stocks as pieces of paper, and investing as a form came up in this year's Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: of gambling. Thinking like an owner changes your whole perspective It's OK to pay a fair price for a company with very strong and growing on stock investing. If a company has a bad quarter or two because it competitive advantages. is making investments for the future, that's a good thing. If there's no change in a company's fundamental outlook, then a decline in the Early in his career, Buffett was the most strongly influenced by Benjamin Graham. His focus was primarily on finding deeply stock price can be a good thing too: it allows you to increase your ownership stake at a better price. undervalued stocks; Graham preferred companies trading for less than their net working capital balance. However, Buffett credits Charlie Management quality and culture are essential. Munger with teaching him that "it is far better to buy a wonderful The quality of management can be one of the hardest things for an business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful outside shareholder to judge. Personally, I've found that the only way price." In my opinion, investors are far more likely to lose money by to really get a sense for management is to follow a company over a compromising on quality to buy an apparently "cheap" stock, than by period of years, observing how management reacts to different market purchasing a fairly valued company with a very strong competitive conditions and competitive challenges, how strategic priorities are set position (what Morningstar calls a wide moat), especially if the and whether management carries them out effectively, and so on. competitive advantage is also strengthening over time (a positive moat trend). HJ Heinz is a recent example of a company Berkshire was willing to acquire for a seemingly rich price because Buffett believes in the quality of the business and management. Ideally, you want to find a company where outstanding stewardship is part of a deeply ingrained culture that will live on through future management transitions. At Morningstar, we do our best to capture our view of management through our stewardship ratings—with our Stay sane while others go crazy. exemplary stewardship rating reserved for companies with the most When asked what Berkshire's competitive advantage is, Munger's competent strategic execution and disciplined capital allocation. response was that "we like to stay sane while others go crazy." Buffett Managements should set a straightforward performance yardstick, has often expressed the same sentiment as: "be fearful when others and then stick to it. are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." It's as simple as that. Buffett stated that the average investor can expect to see at least four or five serious market dislocations in their lifetime, along the lines of the late 1990s tech bubble or the 2008-09 financial crisis. The challenge is to have the "mental fortitude" to take advantage of them. Buffett's preferred way to measure performance for Berkshire Hathaway is growth in book value per share. Buffett compares this growth with the returns of the S&P 500: if Berkshire's book value appreciates faster than the S&P 500, Buffett and Munger are earning their keep. If book value doesn't keep up with the S&P 500, in Buffett's words "our management will bring no value to our investors." You would be hard-pressed to find such a straightforward and easily verified performance yardstick at most companies—even those that have much simpler businesses than Berkshire. 26 June, 2013 In general, book value is a terrible proxy for intrinsic value. Stay within your circle of competence. While growth in book value is a decent enough substitute for For the vast majority of investors who don’t have the time or improvements in Berkshire's intrinsic value from year to year, Buffett inclination to extensively research individual securities, Buffett and emphasises that in general book value is not a good measure of Munger recommend low-cost index funds. For their part, Berkshire's intrinsic value. This is because book value is based on historical cost managers concentrate on companies in the US (although they have and occasionally arbitrary accounting rules. Companies that make made occasional international investments, such as Iscar in Israel and wise investments over time (such as Berkshire) will end up with assets PetroChina in China) and have no problem passing on stocks whose worth significantly more than their historical cost, but the opposite future outlook they deem too hard to understand (they mentioned the could just as easily be true of companies that make poor investments. specific examples of Apple (AAPL) and airlines). Don't do dumb things, especially in insurance. Macroeconomic forecasts are of little use to investors. Berkshire's primary advantage in the insurance segment is its Berkshire doesn't pay much attention to the outlook for the overall unwillingness to do "dumb things," in the words of Buffett. It can be economy. There's just too much uncertainty surrounding economic very tempting for insurers to chase market share through aggressive forecasts for them to be of any use. As Buffett said, "to ignore what underwriting. In an unfavourable pricing environment, the rational you know because of predictions about something nobody knows is thing to do may be just to sit on the sidelines. However, that would silly." create an awkward situation for most normal insurance companies, which face shareholder pressure to show growth in premiums and would end up with 80% of their employees having nothing to do. The United States' past and future is a story of ever-increasing prosperity. Munger stated that while most of Berkshire's businesses would do Buffett is a perpetual optimist. At this year's meeting, he said that he pretty well under different owners, reinsurance is an exception. envies a baby being born today in the United States because, "on a Reinsurance just isn't a good business without truly exceptional probability basis, that is the luckiest person ever born." According to management. Buffett, "We live far better than John D. Rockefeller did in his day, and the same will be true of today's babies compared to us." 27
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