Why Invest in GNMA Project Loans? 08 May 2012

08 May 2012
Weekly Market Review
Treasury Yields
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
Yield
Treasury yields were lower across the curve this past week as nonfarm payrolls failed to meet
expectations yet again and trouble abroad pushed investors out of riskier assets. Nonfarm payrolls
(115k vs. 160k est.) was the headline number last week as it pushed equities lower by nearly 2% and
10-year rates down 5bps shortly after its Friday release. The downward trend in job growth is even
more concerning as multiple European countries have fallen back into recession and China’s growth
is slowing. On a positive note, March’s nonfarm payrolls were revised up to 154k from 120k and
initial claims (365k vs. 379k est.) fell to the lowest level in a month. This week’s lighter economic
calendar is highlighted by PPI, U. of M. confidence and initial jobless claims. 2-year and 10-year
Treasuries ended (began) the week yielding .25% (.26%) and 1.88% (1.94%), respectively.
2.00
1.50
Current
1.00
Last Week
0.50
Last Month
6mo
Why Invest in GNMA Project Loans?
5
10
15
20
25
30
Maturity
20
spread (bps)
Basis Points
GNMA project loans are one of three categories that comprise the agency CMBS market, with the
other two being FNMA DUS and FHLMC K certificates. The collateral behind GNMA project loans
(20)
is usually FHA guaranteed loans that are provided for the construction, purchase and refinancing of
(40)
Intereste Rate Change (Month over Month)
multifamily homes, nursing homes, assisted living facilities and hospitals. The project loan pool
consists usually of about 50 loans with each having a value of $5 million, for a total pool
value of $250 million. Typically the CMO securities issued from these pools have a
Chart 1: GNMA Project loans exhibited
sequential pay structure that is carved into four tranches A,B,C,D with average lives of 3, 5,
significantly less spread volatility during the
8, 12 years. A key feature that sets apart these securities from their single family
financial crisis compared to other sectors
counterparts is that they have some form of prepayment protection that lasts up to 10 years.
Most loans have a 2-3 year lockout during which voluntary prepayments are strictly
Historical spreads to swaps for various types of securities
forbidden, but after the lockout period a prepayment penalty applies that is proportional to
700
the outstanding principle and steps down by 1% a year. For example a project loan with a
5.5Yr GNMA Project Loan
2-year hard lockout would be followed by an 8% penalty in year 3, 7% in year 4 and so on,
600
5-Yr AAA credit card ABS
until the penalty declines to 0% after year 10. The standard approach when modeling
500
prepayments and pricing these securities is using the “15 CPJ” convention that assumes no
5-7 Yr AAA Corporate Financials
400
voluntary prepayments are made during the lockout period, but after the lockout ends the
300
security prepays at 15 CPR for life. In addition, involuntary prepayments (or defaults) can
occur at any time and follow the GNMA Project Loan Default curve (GN PLD). The GN
200
PLD curve, which is based on historical data, uses annual default rates that range from 0%
100
to 2.51% .
0
Total Return (%)
GNMA project loans are one of the few types of securities that allow investors to meet
-100
specific average life requirements while at the same time providing them with cash flow
Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-12
stability. For instance, at the front end of the curve banks can invest in 3-yr GNMA CMOs
Source: JP Morgan
to meet their short term financial obligations, while insurance companies at the other end
can invest in longer average life (i.e. 12-yr) bonds to match their longer duration liabilities. Chart 2: The GNMA project loan outperforms a
In addition, due to the explicit government loan guarantee they also exhibit lower spread duration matched agency callable and bullet over a
volatility compared to other securities of similar credit quality. Indeed, GNMA project wide range of parallel interest rate shifts
loans exhibited significantly less spread volatility during the financial crisis compared to 5- Total returns over the next 12 months for 5.6-yr GNMA
yr credit card AAA ABS and 5 to 7-yr AAA financial corporates (Chart 1). An additional project loan, 5-yr agency bullet and 7NC2 agency callable
advantage of these securities is that their collateral is backed by GNMA and as a result they
15
have 0% risk capital weighting. In the current low yield environment, GNMA project loans
5-Yr agency bullet
offer more yield than other securities of similar credit quality and similar duration. As an
10
5.6-Yr GNMA project loan
example, GNR 2012-44 AB has a 2.6% coupon and an expected average life 5.6 years at
15CPJ. Its market price of $104-03 reflects a spread of 81bps over 5-year agencies and
7NC2 agency callable
5
10bp over 7NC2 agency callables. But more importantly, because of the prepayment
protection, the project loan has a positive convexity that allows it to outperform the agency
0
callable as well as the bullet. As illustrated in Chart 2, over the next 12 months the GNMA
project loan is expected to outperform on a total return basis the duration-matched agency
-5
callable and bullet over a wide range of parallel interest rate shifts. Therefore, we
recommend that investors consider adding GNMA project loans as they remain an
-10
-200 -150 -100 -50
0
50
100 150 200
overlooked segment of the mortgage market that offers relative value opportunities.
Parallel shifts (bps)
Source: BMO
CONTACTS
Justin Hoogendoorn, CFA, Managing Director
Roy Hingston, Director
Dan Krieter, Associate
Dimitri Delis, Ph.D, Director*
Brett Adlard, Analyst
* Primary author
BMO Capital Markets Economic Calendar
Monday
7-May
Tuesday
8-May
Wednesday
9-May
Consumer Credit
MBA Mortgage Apps
20
10
5
0
-3.8
-5
04/13 04/20
9.7
10
8.7
0
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Thursday
10-May
Friday
Initial Claims
11-May
PPI (MoM)
400
370
380
365
360
340
04/13 04/20 04/27 05/04
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
MBA Mortgage Refi
Continuing Claims
4200
3715
3688
3900
3600
3300
04/13 04/20 04/27 05/04
3400
Uof M Confidence (P)
80
0.1
04/27
05/04
3276
3300
3280
Jan
Feb
0.0
Mar
Apr
73.7
75
3200
04/06 04/13 04/20 04/27
0.0
76.4
70
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Import Price Index
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1.3
(0.2)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
US Trade Balance
-40
-45
-50
-55
(46)
(50)
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Monthly Budget Stmt
100
0
-100
-200
-300
30
-198
Jan
Actual
Feb
Mar
Consensus Estimate, Source: Bloomberg, Friday 5/4/12
Apr
Key Economic Release
Key Economic Releases
Initial Jobless Claims
University of Michigan Confidence (P)
US Initial Jobless Claims (000), SA
Univ of Michigan Confidence Survey of Present Sentiment
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
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