Batteries: Why We Need Them, and What We Need to Make Them Jon Hykawy Jonathan Lee Electric Cars and Battery Demand • We believe electric vehicles will see more rapid adoption than many credit • We break down vehicle adoption as E-Bikes (mainly Asia), hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fully electric vehicles (FEVs) • Battery sizes, in terms of storage capacity, increase, moving from eBike to FEV; 0.5 kWh for E-Bike, 2 kWh for HEV, 15 kWh for PHEV and 25 kWh for FEV • Results in significant demand; 33 GWh of storage by 2015, 82 GWh of storage by 2020 Year HEV ('000) PHEV ('000) FEV ('000) E-Bikes ('000) Storage (MWh) 2011 20 25 1,431 1,641 2012 500 70 100 1,646 5,373 2013 600 300 300 1,892 14,146 2014 700 400 500 2,176 20,988 2015 900 750 750 2,503 33,051 2016 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,878 43,439 2017 1,100 1,200 1,250 3,310 53,105 2018 1,200 1,400 1,500 3,806 62,803 2019 1,300 1,600 1,800 4,377 73,789 2020 1,400 1,750 2,000 5,034 81,567 Rechargeable Batteries • A rechargeable battery, we all know, allows storage of electricity • Efficiency is solid, better than 90% round-trip • Basically, shuffles and stores ions from cathode to anode in use, back when recharging • State-of-the-art today are lithium batteries • Lithium supplanting all other; when was the last time you came across a new electronic device with anything but lithium? Lithium Batteries • Anode is typically graphite • Cathode is a compound made from lithium and some other metal • Common cathodes are: – – – – – – lithium lithium lithium lithium lithium lithium iron phosphate (LFP) nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) cobalt oxide (LCO) manganese oxide (LMO) vanadium phosphate (LVP) • Demand for battery materials obviously scales with battery demand Properties of the Rechargables Energy Cathode Voltage (Wh/kg) Power Capacity (W/kg) (mAh/g) $/kWh $/kW $/kg Life LCO $29.46 Low 3.7 102 1,092 170 $289 $26.98 NCM $14.61 Poor 3.6 96 1,700 175 $152 $8.60 NCA $11.66 Good 3.8 140 900 200 $83 $12.95 LMO $0.47 Good 3.6 90 1,300 120 $5 $0.36 LFP $0.70 Good 3.3 90 1,100 170 $8 $0.64 LVP $7.10 Excellent 4.2 106 2,000 130 $67 $3.55 Demand Beyond the Consumer Battery • Consumer electronics demand growth is 8% to 10% per annum • Above and beyond consumer electronics – E-bikes – Electric vehicles – Grid storage E-Bikes and Electric Vehicles • 27 million E-bikes in Asia are expected to grow to approximately 40 million by 2020 • Battery usage per e-bike limited – significant penetration and growth required to put dent into demand • At 20% penetration of e-bike market by 2020, not dominant – contributes roughly 19,200 tonnes graphite per annum by 2020 • Hybrids, plug-ins and full electric vehicles – – – 250k hybrids per year, plug-ins and full electrics just in infancy Estimate of over 2M vehicles by 2015 and 5M vehicles by 2020 Electric vehicles contribute to electrification of powers – all energy sources converted to electricity storage Blue Sky – Grid Storage • US power consumption is roughly 22% of global total • Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S. – 33 State Policies requiring electricity providers obtain percentage of power from renewable energy sources – Implementation dates ranging from 2013 to 2030 – Averages 17% of electricity from renewables – 33 States combined for 2,538 TWh of electricity in 2010 • 17% of that would be 439 TWh • Beyond renewables, perhaps even more importantly, storage hardens the grid – According to University of Minnesota, non-disaster related blackouts are up 124%, from 41 in 1991-1995 to 92 in 2001-2005 Blue Sky – Grid Storage • “Massive Electricity Storage,” a white paper written by Bernard Lee and David Gushee for AIChE in 2008 • Provides estimate of storage capacity required for stability • Approximately 470 GWh storage required to stabilize grid due to renewable adoption (“upper bound”) • Depending on type of battery and actual implementation – game changer • Absolute game changer – Up to 280 kt LCE and 775 kt graphite – Depending on cathode material, multiples of those numbers for other metals (Mn, V, Co, pure Fe, etc.) Tesla Roadster • Uses NCA batteries • Larger than competitors at 39 kg LCE, 110 kg graphite and 21 kg cobalt per roadster Source: Tesla Motors Source: Tesla Motors BYD e6 • LFP batteries (Fe Power) • 2,400 kg vehicle – BYD is investigating more compact and energy dense technologies Source: BYD Auto Subaru G4e • Concept car using LVP, which has high power density, high voltage • LVP could be a next generation battery with superior performance attributes Source: Subaru Inc. Nissan Leaf • Uses LMO batteries • A 24 kWh battery using 4 kg Li metal, 58 kg graphite, 62 kg Mn • Over 3,600 vehicles sold as of March 11’ Source: Nissan Motors Co. Chevy Volt • Also utilizes LMO batteries • Volt’s 16kWh battery uses approximately 2 kg Li metal, 28 kg graphite, and 30 kg Mn Source: General Motors With all these new investments..… Who Will Mine the Material? The Materials: • Graphite • Lithium • Manganese • Cobalt • Vanadium Who: • The companies we’ll hear today Graphite • Used in refractories, batteries, brake linings, lubricants, steelmaking • 1.1M tonnes production per year • 80% sourced from China – 220 kt ex China • Sold in various forms: – Natural flake – Amorphous – Synthetic/Artificial Graphite Demand 3,000,000 Annual Graphite Demand (Tonnes) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Manganese • 15 million tonne/yr market • Main use is manufacture of stainless steel – Sold as into market as FeMn • 1.3 million tonnes/yr electrolytic Mn – Purity level needed for battery use – 97% from China – 34,000 tonnes/yr produced ex China Battery Demand, Relatively Speaking 90,000 80,000 Manganese (tonnes) 70,000 60,000 50,000 LMO Contribution 40,000 NCM Contribution Ex-China Production 30,000 20,000 10,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cobalt • 60 – 70 kt per year production – Largely by-product from nickel and copper production – 65% sourced from DRC • 23% of demand is due to battery use • Cobalt was in first lithium ion battery – Majority of cobalt used in batteries is for LCO (85%) • NCA, NCM use much less cobalt than LCO Beyond Battery Grade • Sold as metal and chemical • Metal is graded 1 through 4 – Grade 1 (99.9%) mainly supplied by Xstrata, Vale and Sumitomo • During failed Inco-Falconbridge merger, European Commission comments: – “specifications relate not only to level of purity of cobalt, but more importantly impose strict maximum levels measured at the ppm levels for specific impurities” Vanadium • 90% of vanadium used as a steel strengthener – Better building codes requiring stronger materials means more vanadium – Near-term demand driver • Upside potential in two types of batteries – Automotive: LVP – Grid Storage: Vanadium Redox Vanadium Curve 120,000 Annual Vanadium Demand (tonnes) 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Consumers will Decide • No battery dominates; choices made on basis of power, capacity, safety, price • Consumers may ultimately decide • Multiple types of batteries within vehicles – Different chemistries for different vehicles Disclaimer Information contained herein has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. 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