1. technology and computing

ANNEX
III
Recent Renewable Energy
Cost and Performance
Parameters
Lead Authors:
Thomas Bruckner (Germany), Helena Chum (USA/Brazil),
Arnulf Jäger-Waldau (Italy/Germany), Ånund Killingtveit (Norway),
Luis Gutiérrez-Negrín (Mexico), John Nyboer (Canada), Walter Musial (USA),
Aviel Verbruggen (Belgium), Ryan Wiser (USA)
Contributing Authors:
Dan Arvizu (USA), Richard Bain (USA), Jean-Michel Devernay (France), Don Gwinner (USA),
Gerardo Hiriart (Mexico), John Huckerby (New Zealand), Arun Kumar (India),
José Moreira (Brazil), Steffen Schlömer (Germany)
This annex should be cited as:
Bruckner, T., H. Chum, A. Jäger-Waldau, Å. Killingtveit, L. Gutiérrez-Negrín, J. Nyboer, W. Musial, A. Verbruggen,
R. Wiser, 2011: Annex III: Cost Table. In IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier,
G. Hansen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and
Performance Parameters
Annex III is intended to become a ‘living document’, which will be
updated in the light of new information in order to serve as an input to
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists that are interested in
supporting this process are invited to contact the IPCC WG III Technical
Support Unit (TSU) (using [email protected]) in order to get further information concerning the submission process.1 Comments and
new data input will be considered for inclusion in Volume 3 of the IPCC
AR5 according to the procedures of the IPCC review system.
This Annex contains recent cost and performance parameter information for currently commercially available renewable power generation
technologies (Table A.III.1), heating technologies (Table A.III.2) and biofuel production processes (Table A.III.3). It summarizes information that
determines the levelized cost of energy or energy carriers supplied by
the respective technologies.
The input ranges are based on assessments of various studies by authors
of the respective technology chapters (Chapters 2 through 7). If not
stated otherwise, the data ranges provided here are worldwide aggregates. Data are generally for 2008, but can be as recent as 2009. They
represent roughly the mid-80% of values found in the literature, hence,
excluding outliers. The availability and quality of different sources of
data varies significantly across individual technologies for a variety of
reasons.2 Some expert judgment is therefore required to determine data
ranges that are representative of particular classes of technologies and
specific periods of time and valid globally.
The references to specific information are quoted in the footnotes. If the
full dataset is based on one particular reference, it is included in the reference column of the green part of the table. Further information on the
data reported in the table is provided in the footnotes and in Chapters
2 through 7 (see in particular Sections 2.7, 3.8, 4.7, 5.8, 6.7 and 7.8).
1
No individual responses can be guaranteed, but all emails as well as relevant material attached to those emails will be archived and made available in appropriate form
to the authors involved in the AR5 process.
2
No standardized uncertainty language has been used in this report. Nonetheless, the
authors of this Annex have carefully assessed available data and highlighted data
limitations and uncertainties in the footnotes. A fair impression of the breadth of the
reference base can be deduced from the list of references in this Annex.
1002
Annex III
The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), heat (LCOH) and transport
fuels (LCOF)3 are calculated based on the data compiled here and the
methodology described in Annex II, using three different real discount
rates (3, 7 and 10%). They represent the full range of possible levelized
cost values resulting from the lower and upper bounds of input data in
this table. More precisely, the lower bound of the levelized cost ranges is
based on the low ends of the ranges of investment, operation and maintenance (O&M) and (if applicable) feedstock cost and the high ends of
the ranges of capacity factors and lifetimes as well as (if applicable) the
high ends of the ranges of conversion efficiencies and by-product revenue stated in this table. The higher bound of the levelized cost ranges
is accordingly based on the high end of the ranges of investment, O&M
and (if applicable) feedstock costs and the low end of the ranges of
capacity factors and lifetimes as well as (if applicable) the low ends of
the ranges of conversion efficiencies and by-product revenue.4
These levelized cost figures (violet parts of the tables) are discussed in
Sections 1.3.2 and 10.5.1 of the main report. Most technology chapters
(Chapters 2 through 7) provide more detail on the sensitivity of the levelized costs to particular input parameters beyond discount rates (see
in particular Sections 2.7, 3.8, 4.7, 5.8, 6.7 and 7.8). These sensitivity
analyses provide additional insights into the relative weight of the large
number of parameters that determine the levelized costs under more
specific conditions.
In addition to the technology-specific sensitivity analysis in the respective chapters (Chapters 2 through 7) and the discussions in Sections
1.3.2 and 10.5.1, Figures A.III.2 through A.III.4 (a, b) show the sensitivity
of the levelized cost in a complementary way using so-called tornado
graphs (Figures A.III.2 through A.III.4 a) as well as their ‘negatives’
(Figures A.III.2 through A.III.4 b).
Figures A.III.1a and A.III.1b show schematic versions of the tornado
graphs and their ‘negatives’, respectively, explaining how to read them
correctly.
3
The levelized cost represents the cost of an energy generating system over its lifetime. It is calculated as the per unit price at which energy must be generated from
a specific source over its lifetime to break even. The levelized costs usually include
all private costs that accrue upstream in the value chain, but they do not include the
downstream cost of delivery to the final customer, the cost of integration, or external
environmental or other costs. Subsidies for RE generation and tax credits are not
included. However, indirect taxes and subsidies on inputs or commodities affecting
the prices of inputs and, hence, private cost, cannot be fully excluded.
4
This approach assumes that input parameters to the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF calculation
are independent from each other. This is a simplifying assumption that implies that
the lower ranges of LCOE/LCOH/LCOF (as a combination of best-case input values)
may in some cases be lower than is most often the case, while the upper range of
LCOE/LCOH/LCOFs (as a combination of worst-case input values) may in some cases
be higher than what is generally considered economically attractive from a private
investors’ perspective. The extent to which this approach introduces a structural bias
in the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF ranges, however, is reduced by taking a rather conservative
approach to the range of input values (partly involving expert judgement), that is, by
restricting input values roughly to the medium 80% range where possible.
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
This is the range of possible levelized cost
values that results for technology A, if only the
dark red parameter is NOT set to its arithmetic
average, BUT varied from its lowest to its
highest value.
Technology A
Medium Levelized Cost Value
of Technology A.
Levelized Cost
of Electricity,
Heat or Fuels
This is the value that results from
using the arithmetic averages of
the input parameter values stated
in the data tables and a 7% discount
rate to compute the levelized cost.
Figure A.III.1a | Tornado graph. Starting from the medium levelized cost value at a 7% interest rate, a broader range of levelized cost values becomes possible if individual parameters
are varied over the full of range of values that these parameters may take on under different conditions. If the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF of a technology is very sensitive to variation of a
particular parameter, then the corresponding bar will be broad. This means that a variation of that particular parameter may lead to LCOE/LCOH/LCOF values that can deviate strongly
from the medium LCOE/LCOH/LCOF value. If the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF of a technology is robust for variations of the respective parameter, the bars will be narrow and only slight deviations from the medium LCOE/LCOH/LCOF value may result from variation of that parameter. Note, however, that no or narrow bars may also be the result of no or limited variation of
the input parameters.
This is the full range of
possible levelized cost
values for technology A.
Technology A
This is the narrower range of
possible levelized cost values
Levelized Cost
of Electricity,
Heat or Fuels
that results for technology A, if
only the blue parameter is set to
its arithmetic average, while all
others vary freely.
Figure A.III.1b | ‘Negative’ of tornado graph. Starting from the low and high bounds of the full range of levelized cost values at a 3% and 10% interest rate, respectively, a narrower
range of levelized cost values remains possible if individual parameters are fixed at their respective medium values. If the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF of a technology is very sensitive to variations of a particular parameter, then the corresponding bar that remains will be narrowed to a large degree. Such parameters are of particular importance in determining the LCOE/
LCOH/LCOF under more specific conditions. If the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF of a technology is robust for variations of the respective parameter, the remaining range will remain close to the
full range of possible LCOE/LCOH/LCOF values. Such parameters are of less importance in determining the LCOE/LCOH/LCOF more precisely. Note, however, that no or small deviations
from the full range may also be the result of no or limited variation of the input parameters.
1003
1004
Tidal Rangexxxviii
<1 – >250xxxix
<0.1 –
>20,000xxxiii
Ocean Energy
1,000–3,000xxxiv
2–20
Geothermal Energy
(Binary-Cycle Plants)
All
2,100–5,200xxix
10–100
Geothermal Energy
(Condensing-Flash
Plants)
viii
4,500–5,000xxx-
1,800–3,600xxix
50–250
CSP
6,000–7,300
xxvi
xxv
2,700–5,200xxi
3,500–6,600xxi
3,700–6,800xxi
3,100–6,200xxi
0.02–0.5
PV (Commercial
Rooftop)
1.0–4.5xv, xx
65–71 USD/kW and
1.1-1.9 US¢/kWh
100 USD/kWxxxviii
25–75 USD/kWxxxv
See above
150–190 USD/kWxxx
60–82 USD/kW
xxvii
16–75 USD/kWxxii
14–69 USD/kWxxii
18–100 USD/kWxxii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/A
viii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
5.4xv, xviii
54 USD/kW and
3.5 US¢/kWh
4,100–6,200xvii
19–110 USD/kWxxii
7.7xv, xvi
59–80 USD/kW and
4.3–5.1 US¢/kWh
6,500–9,800
1,800–2,100
N/Aviii
18 USD/kW
760–900xiii
0.5–100xxiv
0.004–0.01
PV (Residential
Rooftop)
N/Aviii
12 USD/kW and
0.18 US¢/kWh
430–500xiii
PV (Utility Scale,
One-Axis)
2.2–13
CHP (Gasification
ICE)xix
1.0xii
86 USD/kW and
0.35 US¢/kWh
2,800–4,200vii
0.5–100xxiv
2.5–10
CHP (Steam Turbine)
N/Aviii
2,600–4,000vii
84 USD/kW and
0.34 US¢/kWh
By-product
revenue
(US¢/kWh)iii
N/Aviii
2,700–4,100vii
O&M cost, fixed
annual (USD/kW)
and/or (non-feed)
variable (US¢/kWh)
87 USD/kW and
0.40 US¢/kWh
Investment
cost
(USD/kW)
PV (Utility Scale,
Fixed Tilt)
0.65–1.6
20–100
Co-firing: Co-feed
CHP (ORCxiv)
See above
Dedicated Biopower
(Stoker CHPxi)
See above
See above
Dedicated Biopower
Stokerx
Co-firing: Separate
Feed
25–100
Dedicated Biopower
CFBvi
Technology
Hydropower
Geothermal
Energy
Direct Solar
Energy
Bioenergy
Resource
Typical
size of the
device
(MW)ii
Table A.III.1 | Cost-performance parameters for RE power generation technologies.i
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/A
viii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
1.25–5.0ix
(USD/GJfeed, HHViv)
Feedstock
cost
Input data
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/A
viii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
28–30
18
14
36
36
24
27
28
Feedstock
conversion
efficiencyel
(%)
22.5–28.5xl
30–60xxxvi
See above
60–90xxxi
35–42
xxviii
15–27xxiii
15–21xxiii
See above
12–20xxiii
See above
See above
55–68
See above
See above
See above
See above
70–80
Capacity
factor
(%)
40xli, xxxviii
40–80xxxvii
See above
25–30xxxii
See above
See above
See above
See above
20–30
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
20
Economic
design
lifetime
(years)
see Section 6.7
and footnotes
see Chapter 5
and footnotes
see Section 4.7
and footnotes
see Section 3.8
and footnotes
Obernberger et
al. (2008)
Bain (2011)
McGowin (2008)
McGowin (2008)
References
18–24
1.8–11
4.1–14
3.8–11
16–25
11–52
13–43
17–69
18–71
3.0–13
8.3–22
12–32
2.6–6.7
2.2–6.2
6.3–15
6.7–15
6.9–15
7%
23–32
2.4–15
4.9–17
4.5–13
20–31
15–62
16–52
22–83
23–86
3.8–14
10–26
15–37
2.9–7.1
2.3–6.4
7.3–17
7.7–16
7.9–16
10%
Continued next page
12–16
1.1–7.8
3.3–11
3.1–8.4
11–19
7.4–39
8.4–33
11–52
12–53
2.1–11
6.2–18
8.6–26
2.3–6.3
2.0–5.9
5.1–13
5.6–13
6.1–13
3%
Discount rate
LCOEv
(US¢/kWh)
Output data
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
9.7–19
4.4–14
12–23
5.2–17
A circulating fluid bed (CFB) is a turbulent (high gas flow) fluid bed where solid particles are captured and returned to the bed. A fluid bed itself is a collection of small solid particles suspended and kept in motion by an upward flow
of fluid, typically a gas.
The reference data are for a 50 MW plant. Investment costs for larger and smaller plants have been rescaled according to the power law: Specific investment costsize 2 = Investment costsize 1 x (Size 2/Size 1)n-1, where the scaling factor
n = 0.7. Capital cost estimates include facilities for fuel handling and preparation, boiler and air quality control, steam turbine and auxiliaries, balance of plant, general facilities and engineering fee, project and process contingency,
allowance for funds used during construction, owner costs, and taxes and fees.
The abbreviation ‘N/A’ means here ‘not applicable’.
Feedstock is wood with HHV = 20.0 GJ/t, LHV = 18.6 GJ/t.
A mechanical stoker is a machine or device that feeds fuel to a boiler.
CHP: Combined heat and power.
The calculation of the by-product revenue for the large-scale CHP plant assumes: heat output used for industrial applications is 5.38 GJ of heat per MWh electricity; steam is valued at USD2005 4.85/GJ (75% of US pulp and paper
purchased steam price) (EIA, 2009, Table 7.2); and 75% of heat output is sold.
The reference data are for a 50 MW plant. Investment costs for larger and smaller plants have been rescaled according to the power law: Specific investment costsize 2 = Investment costsize 1 x (Size 2/Size 1)n-1, where the scaling factor
n = 0.9 (Peters et al., 2003). The cofiring investment costs estimates were developed for retrofits of existing coal-fired power plants in the USA and include facilities for fuel handling and preparation, additional expenditures for
boiler modifications, balance of plant, general facilities and engineering, project and process contingency, allowance for funds used during construction, owner costs, and taxes and fees. Cofiring cost estimate protocols in the USA
do not include prorated boiler costs.
ORC: Organic Rankine Cycle.
For the calculation of the by-product revenue for small-scale CHP plants, hot water is valued at USD2005 12.51/GJ (average of Rauch (2010) and Skjoldborg (2010)), 33% of gross value is taken into account, because the operator can
only recover a portion of the value and because use of hot water is seasonal.
Heat output used for hot water is 18.51 GJ of heat per MWh electricity.
The reference data are for a 5 MW CHP plant. Investment costs for larger and smaller plants have been rescaled according to the power law: Specific investment costsize 2 = Investment costsize 1 x (Size 2/Size 1)n-1, where the scaling
factor n =0.7 (Peters et al., 2003).
Continued next page
vi
vii
viii
ix
x
xi
xii
xiii
xiv
xv
xvi
xvii
Bioenergy:
HHV: Higher heating value. LHV: Lower heating value.
7.5–15
3.5–10
LCOE: Levelized cost of electricity. The levelized cost usually includes all private costs that accrue upstream in the value chain of electricity production, but they do not include the cost of transmission and distribution to the final
customer. Output subsidies for RE generation and tax credits are not included. However, indirect taxes and subsidies on inputs or commodities affecting the prices of inputs and, hence, private cost, cannot be fully excluded.
Depending on the context of discussion, LCOE may also stand for levelized cost of energy.
see Chapter 7
10%
v
See above
20xlv
7%
For combined heat and power (CHP) plants, heat production is considered as a by-product in the calculation of the levelized cost of electricity providing full capital cost information as a stand-alone plant.
35–45xlii
20–40xliv
3%
Discount rate
iv
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
References
iii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
Capacity
factor
(%)
LCOEv
(US¢/kWh)
Device sizes are intended to be representative of current/recent sizes. If future sizes are expected to differ from these values, this is included in the footnotes to the relevant technologies.
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
(USD/GJfeed, HHViv)
Feedstock
cost
Economic
design
lifetime
(years)
ii
2.0–4.0 US¢/kWh
1.2–2.3 US¢/kWh
By-product
revenue
(US¢/kWh)iii
Feedstock
conversion
efficiencyel
(%)
All data are rounded to 2 significant digits. Most technology chapters (Chapters 2 through 7) provide additional and/or more detailed cost and performance information in the respective chapters’ sections on cost trends. Direct
comparison between levelized cost estimates taken directly from the literature should take the underlying assumptions into due consideration.
3,200–5,000xlvi
1,200–2,100xliii
Investment
cost
(USD/kW)
O&M cost, fixed
annual (USD/kW)
and/or (non-feed)
variable (US¢/kWh)
Output data
i
20–120xlii
Wind Energy
(Onshore,Large
Turbines)
Wind Energy (OffShore, Large Turbines)
5–300xlii
Technology
General remarks/notes:
Wind Energy
Resource
Typical
size of the
device
(MW)ii
Input data
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
1005
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
xviii
Heat output used for hot water is 12.95 GJ of heat per MWh electricity.
xix
ICE: Internal combustion engine.
xx
Heat output used for hot water is in the range of 2.373 to 10.86 GJ/MWh.
Annex III
Direct solar energy – photovoltaic (PV) systems:
xxi
In 2009, wholesale factory PV module prices decreased by more than 50%. As a result, the market prices for installed PV systems in Germany, the most competitive market,
decreased by over 30% in 2009 compared to about 10% in 2008 (see Section 3.8.3). 2009 market price data from Germany is used as the lower bound for investment
costs of residential rooftop systems (Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.V., 2010) and for utility-scale fixed tilt systems (Bloomberg, 2010). Based on US market data for
2008 and 2009, larger, commercial rooftop systems are assumed to have a 5% lower investment cost than the smaller, residential rooftop systems (NREL, 2011b; see also
section 3.8.3). Tracking systems are assumed to have a 15-20% higher investment cost than the one-axis, non-tracking systems considered here (NREL, 2011a; see also
Section 3.8.3). Capacity-weighted averages of investment costs in the USA in 2009 (NREL, 2011b) are used as upper bound to capture the investment cost ranges typical of
roughly 80% of global installations in 2009 (see Section 3.4.1 and Section 3.8.3).
xxii
O&M costs of PV systems are low and are given in a range between 0.5 and 1.5% annually of the initial investment costs (Breyer et al., 2009; IEA, 2010c).
xxiii
The main parameter that influences the capacity factor of a PV system is the actual annual solar irradiation in kWh/m²/yr at a given location and the type of system.
Capacity factors of some recently installed systems are provided in Sharma (2011).
xxiv
The upper limit of utility-scale PV systems represents current status. Much larger systems (up to 1 GW) are in the proposal and development phase and might be realized
within the next decade.
Direct solar energy – concentrating solar power (CSP):
xxv
Project sizes of CSP plants can minimally match the size of a single power generating system (e.g., a 25 kW dish/engine system). However, the range provided is typical for
projects being built or proposed today. ‘Power Parks’ consisting of multiple CSP plants in a single location are also being proposed at sizes of up to or exceeding 1 GW (4 x
250 MW).
xxvi
Cost ranges are for parabolic trough plants with six hours of thermal energy storage in 2009. Investment cost includes direct plus indirect costs where indirect costs include
engineering, procurement and construction mark-up, owner costs, land, and taxes. Investment costs are lower for plants without storage and higher for plants with larger
storage capacity. The IEA (2010a) estimates investment costs as low as USD2005 3,800/kW for plants without storage and as high as USD2005 7,600/kW for plants with large
storage (assumed currency base year: 2009). Capacity factors vary as well, if thermal storage is installed (see note xxviii).
xxvii
The IEA (2010a) states O&M costs relative to energy output as US¢ 1.2 to 2.7/kWh (assumed currency base year: 2009). Depending on actual energy output this may result
in lower or higher annual O&M cost compared to the range stated here.
xxviii
Capacity factor for a parabolic trough plant with six hours of thermal energy storage for solar resource classes typical of the southwest USA. Depending on the size of the
thermal storage capacity, capacity factors as well as investment costs vary substantially. Apart from the Solar Electric Generating Station plants in California, new CSP plants
only became operational from 2007 onwards, thus few actual performance data are available and most of the literature just gives estimated or predicted capacity factors.
Sharma (2011) reports multi-year (1998-2002) average capacity factors of 12.4 to 27.7% for plants without thermal storage, but with natural gas backup. The IEA (2010a)
states that plants in Spain with 15 hours of storage may produce up to 6,600 hours per year. This is equivalent to a 75% capacity factor, if production occurs at full capacity
during the 6,600 hours. Larger storage also increases investment costs (see note xxvi).
Geothermal energy:
xxix
Investment cost includes: exploration and resource confirmation; drilling of production and injection wells; surface facilities and infrastructure; and the power plant. For
expansion projects (i.e., new plants in the same geothermal field) investment costs can be 10 to 15% lower (see Section 4.7.1). Investment cost ranges are based on
Bromley et al. (2010) (see also Figure 4.7).
xxx
O&M costs are based on Hance (2005). In New Zealand, O&M costs range from US¢ 1 to 1.4/kWh for 20 to 50 MWe plant capacity (Barnett and Quinlivan, 2009), which
are equivalent to USD 83 to 117/kW/yr, i.e. considerably lower than those given by Hance (2005). For further information see Section 4.7.2.
xxxi
The current (data for 2008-2009) worldwide capacity factor (CF) for condensing (flash) and binary-cycle plants in operation is 74.5%. Excluding some outliers, the lower
and upper bounds can be estimated as 60 and 90%. Typical CFs for new geothermal power plants are over 90% (Hance, 2005; DiPippo, 2008; Bertani, 2010). The
worldwide average CF for 2020 is projected to be 80%, and could be 85% in 2030 and as high as 90% in 2050 (see Sections 4.7.3 and 4.7.5).
xxxii
25 to 30 years is the common lifetime of geothermal power plants worldwide. This payback period allows for refurbishment or replacement of the aging surface plant at
the end of its lifetime, but is not equivalent to the economic resource lifetime of the geothermal reservoir, which is typically much longer (e.g., Larderello, Wairakei, The
Geysers: Section 4.7.3). In some reservoirs, however, the possibility of resource degradation over time is one of several factors that affect the economics of continuing plant
operation.
Hydropower:
xxxiii
The mid-80% of project sizes is not well documented for hydropower. The range stated here is indicative of the full range of project sizes. Hydropower projects are always
site-specific as they are designed to use the flow and head at each site. Therefore, projects can be very small, down to a few kW in a small stream, and up to several
thousand MW, for example 18,000 MW for the Three Gorges project in China (which will be 22,400 MW when completed) (see Section 5.1.2). 90% of the installed
hydropower capacity and 94% of hydropower energy production today is in hydropower plants >10 MW in size (IJHD, 2010).
xxxiv
The investment cost for hydropower projects can be as low as USD 400 to 500/kW but most realistic projects today lie in the range of USD 1,000 to 3,000/kW (Section
5.8.1).
xxxv
O&M costs are usually given as a percentage of investment cost for hydropower projects. Typical values range from 1 to 4%, while the table relies on an average value of
2.5% applied to the range of investment costs. This will usually be sufficient to cover refurbishment of mechanical and electrical equipment like turbine overhaul, generator
rewinding and reinvestments in communication and control systems (Section 5.8.1).
Continued next page
1006
Annex III
xxxvi
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Capacity factors (CF) will be determined by hydrological conditions, installed capacity and plant design, and the way the plant is operated (i.e., the degree of plant output
regulation). For power plant designs intended for maximum energy production (base-load) and with some regulation, CFs will often be from 30 to 60%. Figure 5.20 shows
average CFs for different world regions. For peaking-type power plants the CF will be much lower, down to 20%, as these stations are designed with much higher capacity
in order to meet peaking needs. CFs for run-of-river systems vary across a wide range (20 to 95%) depending on the geographical and climatological conditions, technology
and operational characteristics (see Section 5.8.3).
xxxvii Hydropower plants in general have very long physical lifetimes. There are many examples of hydropower plants that have been in operation for more than 100 years, with
regular upgrading of electrical and mechanical systems but no major upgrades of the most expensive civil structures (dams, tunnels, etc.). The IEA (2010d) reports that many
plants built 50 to 100 years ago are still operating today. For large hydropower plants, the lifetime can, hence, safely be set to at least 40 years, and an 80-year lifetime is
used as upper bound. For small-scale hydropower plants the typical lifetime can be set to 40 years, in some cases even less. The economic design lifetime may differ from
actual physical plant lifetimes, and will depend strongly on how hydropower plants are owned and financed (see Section 5.8.1).
Ocean Energy:
xxxviii The data supplied for tidal range power plants are based on a very small number of installations (see subsequent footnotes). Therefore, all data should be considered with
appropriate caution.
xxxix
The only utility-scale tidal power station in the world is the 240 MW La Rance power station, which has been in successful operation since 1966. Other smaller projects have
been commissioned since then in China, Canada and Russia with 3.9 MW, 20 MW and 0.4 MW, respectively. The 254 MW Sihwa barrage is expected to be commissioned
in 2011 and will then become the largest tidal power station in the world. Numerous projects have been identified, some of them with very large capacities, including in the
UK (Severn Estuary, 9.3 GW), India (1.8 GW), Korea (740 MW) and Russia (the White Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, 28 GW). None have been considered to be economic yet and
many of them face environmental objections (Kerr, 2007). The projects at the Severn Estuary have been evaluated by the UK government and recently been deferred.
xl
An earlier assessment suggests capacity factors in the range of 25 to 35% (Charlier, 2003).
xli
Tidal barrages resemble hydropower plants, which in general have very long design lives. Many hydropower plants have been in operation for more than 100 years, with
regular upgrading of electro-mechanical systems but no major upgrades of the most expensive civil structures (dams, tunnels etc). Tidal barrages are therefore assumed to
have a similar economic design lifetime as large hydropower plants, which can safely be set to at least 40 years (see Chapter 5).
Wind energy:
xlii
Typical size of the device is taken as the power plant (not turbine) size. For onshore wind energy, 5 to 300 MW plants were common from 2007 to 2009, though both
smaller and larger plants are prevalent. For offshore wind energy, 20 to 120 MW plants were common from 2007 to 2009, though much larger plant sizes are expected in
the future. As a modular technology, a wide range of plant sizes is common, driven by market and geographic conditions.
xliii
The lowest cost onshore wind power plants have been installed in China, with higher costs experienced in the USA and Europe. The range reflects the majority of onshore
wind power plants installed worldwide in 2009 (the most recent year for which solid data exist as of writing), but plants installed in China have average costs that can be
even below this range (USD 1,000 to 1,350/kW is common in China). In most cases, the investment cost includes the cost of the turbines (turbines, transportation to site,
and installation), grid connection (cables, sub-station, interconnection, but not more general transmission expansion costs), civil works (foundations, roads, buildings), and
other costs (engineering, licensing, permitting, environmental assessments, and monitoring equipment).
xliv
Capacity factors depend in part on the strength of the underlying wind resource, which varies by region and site, as well as by turbine design.
xlv
Modern wind turbines that meet International Electrotechnical Commission standards are designed for a 20-year life, and turbine lifetimes may even exceed 20 years if O&M
costs remain at an acceptable level. Wind power plants are typically financed over a 20-year time period.
xlvi
For offshore wind power plants, the range in investment costs includes the majority of offshore wind power plants installed in the most recent years (through 2009) as
well as those plants planned for completion in the early 2010s. Because costs have risen in recent years, using the cost of recent and planned projects reasonably reflects
the ‘current’ cost of offshore wind power plants. In most cases, the investment cost includes the cost of the turbines (turbines, transportation to site, and installation),
grid connection (cables, sub-station, interconnection, but not more general transmission expansion costs), civil works (foundations, roads, buildings), and other costs
(engineering, licensing, permitting, environmental assessments, and monitoring equipment).
1007
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Bioenergy (Direct Dedicated & Stoker CHP)
Varied Parameter
Investment Cost
Non-Fuel O&M Cost
Bioenergy (Co-Firing)
Fuel Cost
Capacity Factor
Discount Rate
Bioenergy (Small Scale CHP, ORC)
Bioenergy (Small Scale CHP, Steam Turbine)
Bioenergy (Small Scale CHP, Gasification ICE)
Solar PV (Residential Rooftop)
Solar PV (Commercial Rooftop)
Solar PV (Utility Scale, Fixed Tilt)
Solar PV (Utility Scale, 1-Axis)
Concentrating Solar Power
Geothermal Energy (Condensing-Flash Plants)
Geothermal Energy (Binary-Cycle Plants)
Hydropower
Ocean Energy (Tidal Range)
Wind Energy (Onshore, Large Turbines)
Wind Energy (Offshore, Large Turbines)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
[UScent2005 /kWh]
Figure A.III.2a | Tornado graph for renewable power technologies. For further explanation see Figure A.III.1a.
1008
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Bioenergy (Direct Dedicated & Stoker CHP)
Fixed Parameter
Investment Cost
Non-Fuel O&M Cost
Bioenergy (Co-Firing)
Fuel Cost
Capacity Factor
Bioenergy (Small Scale CHP, ORC)
Discount Rate
Bioenergy (Small Scale CHP, Steam Turbine)
Bioenergy (Small Scale CHP, Gasification ICE)
Solar PV (Residential Rooftop)
Solar PV (Commercial Rooftop)
Solar PV (Utility Scale, Fixed Tilt)
Solar PV (Utility Scale, 1-Axis)
Concentrating Solar Power
Geothermal Energy (Condensing-Flash Plants)
Geothermal energy (Binary-Cycle Plants)
Hydropower
Ocean Energy (Tidal Range)
Wind Energy (On-Shore, Large Turbines)
Wind Energy (Off-Shore, Large Turbines)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
[UScent2005 /kWh]
Figure A.III.2b | ‘Negative’ of tornado graph for renewable power technologies. For further explanation see Figure A.III.1b.
Note: The upper bounds of both geothermal energy technologies are calculated based on an assumed construction time of 4 years. In the simplified approach used for the sensitivity
analysis shown here, this assumption was not taken into account, resulting in upper bounds that were below those based on the more accurate methodology. The ranges were rescaled,
however, to yield the same results as the more accurate approach.
1009
1010
5–14
Geothermal
(Aquaculture Ponds,
Uncovered)
25–30
60
50
25–30
25–30
4.1–13xxiv
4.1–13xxiv
68–91
63–74
80–91
13–29
20
20
20
25
20
15–25
10–15xxv
15–25
10–20
10–20
10–20
see Section 4.7.6
IEA (2007b)
see Section 3.8.2
and footnotes
IEA (2007b)
14–42
8.5–11
7.7–13
12–24
20–50
8.8–134
2.8–56
10–29
10–69
1.4–34
14–70
3%
17–56
8.6–12
8.6–14
14–31
24–65
12–170
3.6–67
10–30
11–70
1.8–38
15–77
7%
Discount rate
19–68
8.6–12
9.3–16
15–38
28–77
16–200
4.2–75
10–32
11–72
2.1–41
16–84
10%
Continued next page
LCOH: Levelized cost of heat supply. The levelized cost does not include the cost of transmission and distribution in the case of district heating systems. Output subsidies for RE generation and tax credits are also excluded. However,
indirect taxes and subsidies on inputs or commodities affecting the prices of inputs and, hence, private cost, cannot be fully excluded.
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
20–80xxiii
20–80xxiii
20–30xviii
10–40
20–40xiv
86–95
References
iii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
2.5–3.7xvii
3.7–6.2
0–3
10–20
Capacity
factor
(%)
LCOHiii
(USD/GJ)
CHP plants produce both, heat and electricity. Calculating the levelized cost of one product only, that is, either heat or electricity, can be done in different ways. One way is to assign a (discounted) market value to the ‘by-product’ and
subtract this additional income from the remaining expenses. This has been done in the calculation of the LCOE of bioenergy CHP plants. The calculation of LCOH has been done in a different way according to the methodology used
in IEA (2007) which served as main reference for the input data: Instead of considering electricity as a ‘by-product’ and subtracting its value from the remaining expenses for the supply of heat, the total expenses over the lifetime of
the investment project were split according to the average heat/electricity output ratio and only the heat shares of investment and O&M costs were taken into account. For this reason no by-product revenue is stated in the heat table.
Both methodologies come with different advantages/disadvantages.
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/Aviii
N/A
viii
Feedstock
cost
(USD/GJfeed)
Economic
design
lifetime
(years)
ii
7.8–8.9 USD/GJxxvii
8.3–11 USD/GJxxvii
5.6–8.3 USD/GJxxvii
8.3–11 USD/GJxxvii
8.3–11 USD/GJxxvii
5.6–22 USD/kWxxii
1.5–10 USD/kWxxii
37–140 USD/kWvii
1.2–2.5 USD/kWvii
15–130 USD/kWvii
13–43 USD/kW
vii
By-product
revenue
(USD/GJfeed)ii
(Feedstock )
conversion
efficiency
(%)
Output data
All data are rounded to 2 significant digits. Most technology chapters (Chapters 2 through 4) provide additional and/or more detailed cost and performance information in the respective chapters’ sections on cost trends. The
assumptions underlying some of the production cost estimates quoted directly from the literature may, however, not be as transparent as the data sets in this Annex and should therefore be considered with caution.
900–3,800xxvi
50–100xxvi
500–1,000xxvi
600–1,600xxvi
1,600–3,900xxvi
530–1,800
120–540xxi
170–1,000xii,xvi
370–1,000xii
370–3,000xii, xiii
310–1,200
vi
Investment
cost
(USD/kWth)
O&M cost, fixed
annual (USD/kW)
and/or variable
(USD/GJ)
Input data
i
0.01–0.35
2–5.5
Geothermal (Greenhouses)
Geothermal Heat
Pumps (GHP)
3.8–35
0.0017–0.07xx
Solar Thermal
Heating (DHW,
Thermo-siphon,
Combi-systems)
Geothermal (District
Heating)
0.0017–0.01xx
Solar Thermal Heating (DHWxix, China)
0.1–1
0.5–5xi
Biomass (Anaerobic
Digestion, CHP)
Geothermal (Building Heating)
12–14
1–10xi
Biomass (Steam
Turbine, CHP)xv
0.005–0.1
Biomass (MSWix,
CHPx)
v
Biomass (DPH )
iv
Technology
General remarks/notes:
Geothermal
Energy
Solar Energy
Bioenergy
Resource
Typical
size of
the device
(MWth)
Table A.III.2 | Cost-performance parameters for RE heating technologies.i
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Bioenergy:
iv
DPH: Domestic pellet heating.
v
This range is typical of a low-energy single family dwelling (5 kW) or an apartment building (100 kW).
vi
Investment costs of a biomass pellet heating system for the combustion plant only (including controls) range from USD2005 100 to 640/kW. The higher range stated above
includes civil works and fuel and heat storage (IEA, 2007).
vii
Fixed annual O&M costs include costs of auxiliary energy. Auxiliary energy needs are 10 to 20 kWh/kWth/yr. Electricity prices are assumed to be USD2005 0.1 to 0.3/kWh. O&M
costs for CHP options include heat share only.
viii
The abbreviation ‘N/A’ means here ‘not applicable’.
ix
MSW: Municipal solid waste.
x
CHP: Combined heat and power.
xi
Typical size based on expert judgment and cost data from IEA (2007).
xii
Investment costs for CHP options include heat share only. The electricity data in Table A.III.1 provides examples of total investment cost (see Section 2.4.4).
xiii
Investment costs of MSW installations are mainly determined by the cost of flue gas cleaning, which can be allocated to waste treatment rather than to heat production (IEA,
2007).
xiv
Heat-only MSW incinerators (as used in Denmark and Sweden) could have a thermal efficiency of 70 to 80%, but are not considered (IEA, 2007).
xv
The ranges provided in this category are mainly based on two plants in Denmark and Austria and have been taken from IEA (2007).
xvi
Investment costs for anaerobic digestion are based on literature values provided relative to electric capacity. For conversion to thermal capacity an electric efficiency of 37%
and a thermal efficiency of 55% were used (IEA, 2007).
xvii For anaerobic digestion, fuel prices are based on a mix of green crop maize and manure feedstock. Other biogas feedstocks include source-separated wastes and landfill gas,
but are not considered here (IEA, 2007).
xviii Conversion efficiencies include auxiliary heat input (8 to 20% for process heat) as well as use of any co-substrate that might increase process efficiency. For source-separated
wastes, the efficiency would be lower (IEA, 2007).
Solar Energy:
xix
DHW: Domestic hot water.
xx
1 m² of collector area is converted into 0.7 kWth of installed capacity (see Section 3.4.1).
xxi
70% of the 13.5 million m² sales volume in 2004 was sold below Yuan 1,500/m² (USD2005 ~190/kW) (Zhang et al., 2010). The lower bound is based on data collected during
standardized interviews in the Zhejiang Province, China, in 2008 (Han et al., 2010). The higher bound is based on Chang et al. (2011).
xxii Fixed annual operating cost is assumed to be 1 to 3% of investment cost (IEA, 2007) plus annual cost of auxiliary energy. Annual auxiliary energy needs are 2 to 10 kWh/m².
Electricity prices are assumed to be USD2005 0.1 to 0.3/kWh.
xxiii The conversion efficiency of a solar thermal system tends to be larger in regions with lower solar irradiance. This partly offsets the negative effect of lower solar irradiance on
cost as energy yields per m² of collector area will be similar (Harvey, 2006, p. 461). Conversion efficiencies, which affect the resulting capacity factor, have not been used in
LCOH calculations directly.
xxiv Capacity factors are based on an assumed annual energy yield of 250 to 800 kWh/m² (IEA, 2007).
xxv Expected design lifetimes for Chinese solar water heaters are in the range of 10 to 15 years (Han et al., 2010).
Geothermal energy:
xxvi For geothermal heat pumps (GHP) the bounds of investment costs include residential and commercial or institutional installations. For commercial and institutional
installations, costs are assumed to include drilling costs, but for residential installations drilling costs are not included.
xxvii Average O&M costs expressed in USD2005/kWhth are: 0.03 to 0.04 for building and district heating and for aquaculture uncovered ponds, 0.02 to 0.03 for greenhouses, and
0.028 to 0.032 for GHP.
1011
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Biomass (Domestic Pellet Heating)
Varied Parameter
Investment Cost
Non-Fuel O&M Cost
Biomass (MSW, CHP)
Fuel Cost
Conversion Efficiency
Capacity Factor
Biomass (Steam Turbine, CHP)
Discount Rate
Biomass (Anaerobic Digestion, CHP)
Solar Thermal Heating (DHW, China)
Solar Thermal Heating (DHW, Thermo-Siphon, Combi)
Geothermal (Building Heating)
Geothermal (District Heating)
Geothermal (Greenhouses)
Geothermal (Aquaculture Ponds, Uncovered)
Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHP)
0
50
100
150
200
[USD2005 /GJ]
Figure A.III.3a | Tornado graph for renewable heat technologies. For further explanation see Figure A.III.1a.
Note: It may be somewhat misleading that solar thermal and geothermal heat applications do not show any sensitivity to variations in conversion efficiencies. This is due to the fact
that the energy input for solar and geothermal has zero cost and that the effect of higher conversion efficiencies of the energy input on LCOH works solely via an increase in annual
output. Variations in annual output, in turn, are fully captured by varying the capacity factor.
1012
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Biomass (Domestic Pellet Heating)
Fixed Parameter
Investment Cost
Non-Fuel O&M Cost
Biomass (MSW, CHP)
Fuel Cost
Conversion Efficiency
Capacity Factor
Biomass (Steam Turbine, CHP)
Discount Rate
Biomass (Anaerobic Digestion, CHP)
Solar Thermal Heating (DHW, China)
Solar Thermal Heating (DHW, Thermo-Siphon, Combi)
Geothermal (Building heating)
Geothermal (District heating)
Geothermal (Greenhouses)
Geothermal (Aquaculture ponds, uncovered)
Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHP)
0
50
100
150
200
[USD2005 /GJ]
Figure A.III.3b | ‘Negative’ of tornado graph for renewable heat technologies. For further explanation see Figure A.III.1b.
1013
1014
Sugarcane
Feedstock
See above
See above
See above
Mexico
USA
See above
Caribbean
Basinx, xi
India
See above
Argentina
See above
See above
Brazil, Case Avii
Colombia
170–1,000
Typical
size of the
device
(MWth)
Overall
Ethanol
Fuel, Region
Table A.III.3 | Cost-performance parameters for biofuels.i
100–320
83–260
110–340
100–320
110–360
110–340
100–330
83–360
Investment
cost
(USD/kWth)ii
See above
21–34 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
See above
See above
See above
See above
20–31 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
21–33 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
16–25 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
20–31 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
See above
See above
20–32 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
22–35 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
4.3
Co-product:
sugarvi
By-product
Revenue
(USD/GJfeed)
16–35 USD/kWth and
0.87 USD/GJfeed
O&M cost, fixed
annual (USD/kWth)
and non-feed
variable
(USD/GJfeed)
6.2
5.2–7.1
2.6–6.2
5.6
2.6–6.2
6.5ix
2.1–6.5viii
2.1–7.1
Feedstock
cost
(USD/GJfeed)
Input data
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
17 (39)
Feedstock
conversion
efficiencyiii
(%)
Product only
(product +
by-product)
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
50%
Capacity
factor
(%)
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
20
Economic
design
lifetime
(years)
28–39
6.4–38
Oliverio and Riberio
(2006), see also row
‘Overall’ above
Rosillo-Calle et al.
(2000) see also row
‘Overall’ above
see row ‘Overall’ above
see row ‘Overall’ above
see row ‘Overall’ above
28–40
19–40
7.1–41
24–36
7.7–42
30–42
3.5–41
3.5–42
7%
29–43
20–42
8.2–44
25–39
8.8–46
31–46
4.5–44
4.5–46
10%
Continued next page
27–36
19–37
5.9–37
23–32
2.4–38
Bohlmann and Cesar
(2006), Oliverio (2006),
van den Wall Bake et
al. (2009)
McDonald and
Schrattenholzer (2001),
Goldemberg (1996), see
also row ‘Overall’ above
2.4–39
3%
Discount rate
Alfstad (2008), Bain
(2007), Kline et al.
(2007)
References
LCOF iv
USD/GJHHVv
Output data
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Wheat
Corn
Feedstock
See above
See above
Argentina
Canada
150–610
See above
See above
See above
Overall
USA
Argentina
Canada
Ethanol
160–240
140–550xiv
USA
190–280
150–230
140–220
140–280xvi
200–310
170–260
160–310
Investment
cost
(USD/kWth)ii
N/A
Overall
Ethanol
Fuel, Region
Typical
size of the
device
(MWth)
See above
See above
See above
9–18 USD/kWth and
1.98 USD/GJfeed
9–17 USD/kWth and
1.98 USD/GJfeed
13–27 USD/kWth and
1.98 USD/GJfeed
1.74
See above
See above
See above
8–25 USD/kWth and
1.41 USD/GJfeed
8–17 USD/kWth and
1.41 USD/GJfeed
8–16 USD/kWth and
1.41 USD/GJfeed
12–25 USD/kWth and
1.41 USD/GJfeed
By-product:
DDGSxii
1.56
By-product:
DDGSxii
By-product
Revenue
(USD/GJfeed)
9–27 USD/kWth and
1.98 USD/GJfeed
O&M cost, fixed
annual (USD/kWth)
and non-feed
variable
(USD/GJfeed)
5.1–6.9
6.5–7
6.3–13
5.1–13
4.8–5.7
7.5
4.2–10xv
4.2–10xiii
Feedstock
cost
(USD/GJfeed)
Input data
See above
See above
See above
49 (91)
See above
See above
See above
54 (91)
Feedstock
conversion
efficiencyiii
(%)
Product only
(product +
by-product)
See above
See above
See above
95%
See above
See above
See above
95%
Capacity
factor
(%)
See above
See above
See above
20
See above
See above
See above
20
Economic
design
lifetime
(years)
16–17
McAloon et al. (2000).
RFA (2011), University
of Illinois (2011), see
also row ‘Overall’ above
see row ‘Overall’ above
12–17
14–16
14–28
12–28
12–15
16–17
9.5–22
9.5–22
7%
12–17
14–17
14–28
12-28
12–16
17–18
10–23
10–23
10%
Continued next page
12–16
14–16
13–28
OECD (2002), Shapouri
and Salassi (2006),
USDA (2007), see also
‘Overall’
see row ‘Overall’ above
12–28
Alfstad (2008), Bain
(2007), Kline et al.
(2007)
11–15
9.3–22
Delta-T Corporation
(1997), Ibsen et al.
(2005), Jechura (2005),
see also row ‘Overall’
above
see row ‘Overall’ above
9.3–22
3%
Discount rate
Alfstad (2008), Bain
(2007), Kline et al.
(2007)
References
LCOF iv
USD/GJHHVv
Output data
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
1015
1016
Wood,
Bagasse,
other
Palm Oil
Soy Oil
Feedstock
See above
USA
See above
Caribbean
Basinx
110–440
See above
See above
Overall
USA
Brazil
Pyrolytic Fuel Oil
See above
Colombia
Overall
44–440
See above
Brazil
Biodiesel
See above
44–440
Argentina
Overall
Biodiesel
xvii
Fuel, Region
Typical
size of the
device
(MWth)
160–240
160–230
160–240
180- 340
160–300
160–340
160–300
160–310
170–320
160–320
Investment
cost
(USD/kWth)ii
See above
12–46 USD/kWth and
2.58 USD/GJfeed
0.07
See above
See above
19–44 USD/kWth and
0.42 USD/GJfeed
12–24 USD/kWth and
0.42 USD/GJfeed
By-product:
Electricityxxi
See above
See above
0.58
12–44 USD/kWth
and 0.42 USD/GJfeed
13–46 USD/kWth and
2.58 USD/GJfeed
10–34 USD/kWth and
2.58 USD/GJfeed
10–46 USD/kWth
and 2.58 USD/GJfeed
See above
9–27 USD/kWth and
2.58 USD/GJfeed
By-product:
Glycerinxviii
See above
0.58
By-product:
Glycerinxviii
By-product
Revenue
(USD/GJfeed)
12–42 USD/kWth and
2.58 USD/GJfeed
9–46 USD/kWth and
2.58 USD/GJfeed
O&M cost, fixed
annual (USD/kWth)
and non-feed
variable
(USD/GJfeed)
0.44–5.5
1.4–5.5
0.44–5.5xxii
11–45
6.1–45
6.1–45
9.7–24
7.0–18xx
14–16xx
7.0–24
Feedstock
cost
(USD/GJfeed)
Input data
See above
See above
67 (69)
See above
See above
103 (107)
See above
See above
See above
103 (107)19
Feedstock
conversion
efficiencyiii
(%)
Product only
(product +
by-product)
See above
See above
95%
See above
See above
95%
See above
See above
See above
95%
Capacity
factor
(%)
See above
See above
20
See above
See above
20
See above
See above
See above
20
Economic
design
lifetime
(years)
see row ‘Overall’ above
see row ‘Overall’ above
Ringer et al. (2006)
see row ‘Overall’ above
see row ‘Overall’ above
Alfstad (2008), Bain
(2007), Kline et al.
(2007), Haas et al.
(2006), Sheehan et al.
(1998)
2.5–11
4.3–12
2.6–12
14–48
8.8–48
8.9–48
12–28
10–21
16–19
10–28
7%
2.8–11
4.5–12
2.8–12
14–48
9.0–49
9.0–49
12–28
10–21
17–20
10–28
10%
Continued next page
2.3–11
4.0–12
2.3–12
14–48
8.7–48
8.7–48
12–28
9.4–21
Chicago Board of Trade
(2006), see also row
‘Overall’ above
USDA (2006), see also
row ‘Overall’ above
16–19
9.4–28
3%
Discount rate
Chicago Board of Trade
(2006), see also row
‘Overall’ above
Alfstad (2008), Bain
(2007), Kline et al.
(2007), Haas et al.
(2006), Sheehan et al.
(2006)
References
LCOF iv
USD/GJHHVv
Output data
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Annex III
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
General remarks/notes:
i
All data are rounded to two significant digits. Chapter 2 provides additional cost and performance information in the section on cost trends. The assumptions underlying some
of the production cost estimates quoted directly from the literature may, however, not be as transparent as the data sets in this Annex and should therefore be considered
with caution.
ii
Investment cost is based on plant capacity factor and not at 100% stream factor, which is the normal convention.
iii
The feedstock conversion efficiency measured in energy units of input relative to energy units of output is stated for biomass only. Conversion factors for a mixture of biomass
and fossil inputs are generally lower.
iv
LCOF: Levelized Cost of Transport Fuels. The levelized costs of transport fuels include all private costs that accrue upstream in the bioenergy system, but do not include the cost
of transportation and distribution to the final customers. Output subsidies for RE generation and tax credits are also excluded. However, indirect taxes and subsidies on inputs
or commodities affecting the prices of inputs and, hence, private cost, cannot be fully excluded.
v
HHV: Higher heating value. LHV: Lower heating value.
vi
Price of / revenue from sugar assumed to be USD2005 22/GJsugar based on average 2005 to 2008 world refined sugar price.
vii
A cane sucrose content of 14% is used in the calculations of case A with the additional assumption that 50% of the total sucrose is used for sugar production (97%
extraction efficiency) and the other 50% of the total sucrose is used for ethanol production (90% conversion efficiency). The bagasse content of cane used is 16%. The HHVs
used are bagasse: 18.6 GJ/t; sucrose: 17.0 GJ/t; and as received cane: 5.3 GJ/t.
viii
Brazilian feedstock costs have declined by 60% in the time period of 1975 to 2005 (Hettinga et al, 2009). For a more detailed discussion of historical and future cost trends
see also Sections 2.7.2, 2.7.3 and 2.7.4.
ix
55.2% of feed used is bagasse. More detailed information on feedstock characteristics can, for instance, be found in Section 2.3.1.
x
Caribbean Basin Initiative Countries: Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guyana, and others.
xi
Mixed ethanol/sugar mill: 50/50. More detailed information on sugar mills can be found in Section 2.3.4.
xii
DDGS: Distillers dried grains plus solubles.
xiii
For international feed range, supply curves from Kline et al. (2007) were used. For more information on feedstock supply curves and other economic considerations in biomass
resource assessments see Chapter section 2.2.3.
xiv
Plant size range (140-550 MW is the equivalent of 25-100 million gallons per year (mmgpy) of anhydrous ethanol) is representative of the US corn ethanol industry (RFA, 2011).
xv
Corn prices in the USA have declined by 63% in the period from 1975 to 2005 (Hettinga et al., 2009). For a more detailed discussion of historical and future cost trends see
also Sections 2.7.2, 2.7.3 and 2.7.4.
xvi
Based on corn mill costs, corrected for HHV, and distillers dried grain (DDG) yields for wheat. More detailed information on milling can be found in Section 2.3.4.
xvii Installation basis is soy oil, not soybeans. Crush spread is used to convert from soybean prices to soy oil price. HHV soy oil = 39.6 GJ/t.
xviii Glycerine is also referred to as glycerol and is a simple polyol compound (1,2,3-propanetriol), and is central to all lipids known as triglycerides. Glycerine is a by-product of
biodiesel production.
xix
The yield is higher than 100% because methanol (or other alcohol) is incorporated into the product.
xx
Soy oil prices are estimated from soybean prices (Kline et al., 2007) and crush spread (Chicago Board of Trade, 2006).
xxi
Process-derived gas and residual solids (char) are used for process heat and power. Excess electricity is exported as a by-product.
xxii Feedstock cost range is based on bagasse residue and wood residue prices (Kline et al. 2007). High range is for wood-based pyrolysis, low range is typical of pyrolysis of
bagasse. For more information on pyrolysis see Section 2.3.3.2. For a discussion of historical and future cost trends see also Sections 2.7.2, 2.7.3 and 2.7.4.
1017
Recent Renewable Energy Cost and Performance Parameters
Annex III
Sugarcane Ethanol
Varied Parameter
Investment Cost
Non-Fuel O&M Cost
Corn Ethanol
Fuel Cost
Discount Rate
Wheat Ethanol
Soy Biodiesel
Palm Oil Biodiesel
Pyrolytic Fuel Oil
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
[USD2005 /GJ]
Figure A.III.4a | Tornado graph for biofuels. For further explanation see Figure A.III.1a.
Sugarcane Ethanol
Fixed Parameter
Corn Ethanol
Investment Cost
Non-Fuel O&M Cost
Fuel Cost
Wheat Ethanol
Discount Rate
Soy Biodiesel
Palm Oil Biodiesel
Pyrolytic Fuel Oil
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
[USD2005 /GJ]
Figure A.III.4b | ‘Negative’ of tornado graph for biofuels. For further explanation see Figure A.III.1b.
Note: Aggregation of input data over various regions and subsequent LCOF calculations leads to slightly larger LCOF ranges than those obtained if region-specific LCOF values are
calculated first and these regional LCOF values are subsequently aggregated. In order to allow for a broad sensitivity analysis the first approach was followed here. The broader ranges
were, however, rescaled to yield the same results as the latter approach, which is more accurate and is used in the remainder of the report.
1018
Annex III
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