• Vol. I • Issue :4 • Date : 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 • Editor : Devlaxmi Joshi • Asso.Editor : Narendra Joshi • Mobile : 9825065387 • •• Address : 115/991, Nirmal Apartment, Telephone Exchange Road, Naranpura, Ahmedabad - 380013 • Phone : 27451449 •• MARKET MAY VOLATILE NEXT WEEK IT’S TIME TO PICK GOOD FUNDAMENTAL STOCKS Last week BSE Sensex down by 765.69 points or 4.85 percent to 14994.83, while CNX Nifty slipped 171.85 points or 3.62 percent to 7573.95. BSE Mid Cap index lost 619.34 points or 9.40% to 5964.10 for the week ended Wednesday, 19th March 2008. The BSE Small Cap index slumped 857.30 points or 10.61% to 7222.20 in the week. At current 14994.83, Sensex trade at a PE multiple of 14.28 to 14.99, based on projected FY 2009 EPS of Rs. 1000 to Rs. 1050 for 30 Sensex companies. The BSE Sensex has lost 6211.94 points or nearly 30 percent from its all time high of 21206.77 hit on 10 January, 2008. bourses recently. Next week on 27 March, 2008, the last day of March derivative contracts and volatility on the bourses may rise. FII sold shares worth Rs. 15892.27 crore in the calander year 2008 so far till Tuesday, 18th March, 2008. Domestic Mutual Funds, on the other hand, pumped Rs. 6638.30 crores during the same period. A lot of bad news such as meltdown in global markets, earning down grade recently by brokerages, lower than expected industrial production data for January 2008 and surge in inflation created havoc on the India’s inflation swelled by o.81 % to over 11 month high of 5.92 % for the week ended March 8, 2008. The rise is mainly attributed to the increase in prices of essential items like fruits, veg- etables, pulses as well as some manufacturing items. The wholesale price bared inflation stood at 5.11 % in the previous week. We saw in last two months, Sensax has crashed just 30% but certain individual stocks came down nearly 60-70 percent of their high and in some cases it has gone down to 80 %. But there no change in fundamental so it is time to pick such fundamentally good stock for medium to long term and fetch you attractive return. Our low Target 14700 had been tested now, if it being survied you can expect 17400 Deart friends, We have seen some positive steps taken by US FED has given some hope and confidence in USA and world markets. We hope That same hope will be ex- STOCK MARKET NIKHIL BHATT 12 COMIDITY WATCH SUMIT BILGAIYAN 3 STOCK & PLANET RAJNIKANT 8 tended for Indian market also. We advise to take some chance and buy Nifty as well as some of the stocks. Some of the stocks for delivery and PT buying. excellent gain. Stock is currently traded around 116 with 4.4 PE which is Cheapest to our opinion. Stock has fallen more than 40 % during last week due to Margin calls. We are sure soon company circle will buy this stock to increase stake. (1) Orchid Chem : (2) ABG shipyard : We have given our detailed logic for buy this stock in Gujarati issue this week. You can buy and hold this stock for Shipyard business is in boom world wide. Recent announcements in tarrif are beneficial to all shipping companies. We Email : [email protected] Nifty : We hope Nifty will give give positive closing this week. Last week Nifty fall by 171 points. While sensex fall was 766 points. We expect some 200 points gain in Nifty. You can buy Nifty and carry forward trade till Nifty test 4900-5000 mark. have detailed research report on shipping Companies. Most of the Yards are booked for 2008 well in advance. This scompany has good facilities and bookings of services. You can buy and hold thgis stock for one year to get excellent gain. (3) INDOCO : Safe stock in sector. Not gain much during last bull run. We have studied data and numbers of this company. We also take Continue on ....4 Investors should consider buying stocks, specialy with a 12-15 months The market has not shown much recovery after the almost 1000 point fall last Monday. The US market has been quite active and ended on a strong positive note last week. The Market is now looking forward to next week with some hope. The prices of Crude after touching $ 112 per barrel, is now down in to double digits. The Positive effect of this development shall be seen in the market during early part of next week, and if there are no further bad news from abroad, the market may settle at higher levels next week. Investors should consider buying stocks, specialy with a 12-15 months perspective and if they find a 20-25 percent gain in the short term, they may consider booking profit. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 2 Support for the sensex exist at 14700 and below that downtrend can continue to 14100 levels Dear readers, We have seen market correcting from the top of January, 2008. If we see top of January-2008, SENSEX has corrected 6529 points from the top of 21206 while Nifty has fallen 1888 points from top of 6357. We are eyeing global events in general and US events in particular. Last some of the steps taken by FED and Central Banks of Us and Europe are definitely morale boosting for the world markets. In last meet on 18 Th March, Fed had declared 75 basis point rate cut in Discount rate. This and some other steps are proving positive for US market. We are hopeful of USD now will stop falling further. Its first sign is Gold is correcting in London Bullion market. We expect some relief rally now onwards in Indian, Asian as well as in world market. Our columnist has given some data, charts along with justifications for buy. You are advised to study all of our articles in this issue and take your own decision. We personally feel that at least for few days we will be in positive zone. How long this up move will continue is a matter of debate, however, at this juncture, we shall avoid short and take some positions. We also expect Fund managers to go for new bargain buys in coming months on the back of the plunging Sensex and good valuations. Until December, India’s capital markets had been a big competitor to PE. But, now, the capital market option has contracted sharply, stalling plans by many companies to raise funds. The volume of private equity (PE) deals in India is down by 47% in the first 10 weeks of 2008 over the year-ago period Sensex, the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, has fallen about 27% since the beginning of 2008. In 2007, it had risen by 47%. Narendra Joshi Assocoate Editor Downtrend continued to intensify during the week. Holiday shortened week as market will remain closed for 2 days on eve of Id and Good Friday. Week start of with big slide as indices slipped over 900 odd points. Bear sterns hit due to subprime mortgage which brought in some levels of concerns in Indian Markets. Second day witnessed a mixed trend with no trigger but indices ralied but tumbled to close flat. Advance tax payments for the final quarter have risen by 110% compared to last year, which indcates a good earnings from these Corporates. As fed cut the interest rate, markets across rejoiced as Asian ended in green. Indian indices opened strong but normally investors tend to book profits over weekends to avoid risks so preferred to book profit. The sentiments also remained weak and kept funds out of the market. Fed cut the interest rate by 75 bps and gave the boost across the globe. The Fed also cut discount rate by 25 bps early this week. The efforts to save economy continues..but it will take time to bear fruits. The worries have now started extending to other parts of the world like Europe and Japan. We don’t see condition improving in near term. Left and UPA met to discuss on nuke deal..but outcome was zero. Both parties continue to maintain their stand. Left is unlikely to soften there stand and Congress would try to push the deal in full force as it has improved its image among mass through Budget 200809. IT counter bounced..We believe that it was dead cat bounce. Fundamentally, things have not improved. Financial sector is US is bleeding and this is one of major client for Indian IT cos. Bear and Stearns (B&S) bail out by Fed actually shocked the global markets. B&S is one of the client for Satyam and TCS. Thought IT counter is bottomed out..Caution is advised. Indian banks are not left out of the subprime woes. ICICI and SBI are said to have large exposure to forex uncertainties. This may continue to weigh on the Banks counter. Clarity on farm loan waiver has given some ease but no relief for now. With inching inflation probability of interest easing seems bleak in short term. A strong run up for the overseas markets, helped Sensex finished the day with 1%. Although, the day ended with gains, markets finished the day near the lows of the days trading range and that is not exactly a sign of strength. Both Sensex and Nifty are below their multi year trendline and charts are not yet suggesting any reversal in the trend. The immediate major resistance for the Sensex is placed at the gap area of 15800 and until markets close above this level with volumes, any bounce could remain just an oversold bounce. Support for the sensex exist at 14700 and below that downtrend can continue to 14100 levels. AKASH OPTIFIBRE BSE: 532351 Current price : 40.85 52 Weekly high : 96 52 Weekly low : 36 Akash Optifibre plans to invest $25 million (Rs 1 billion) over the next 18 months towards its IPTV and VoIP project. The company, which has a franchisee arrangement with MTNL, has already invested $15 million (Rs 600 million) & investing $40 million on IPTV and VoIP. This will support 400000 subscribers which Company hope to get over a three-year period IPTV services on MTNL network will be commercially launched in Mumbai on 1 April with a bouquet of 100 channels. Aksh has already launched this offering with MTNL in Delhi and has a subscriber base of 3000. MTNL charges subscribers a price of Rs 499 for a bundled offering of TV channels, broadband and voice. Subscribers get 50 free calls and 50 mb download is free. Beyond this limit, they will have to pay Re 1 per download and Rs 1.20 per call. The video-on-demand subscription is also free. Aksh and MTNL also announced the launch of video phone calling services - V Spyk. The services will be available in Delhi and Mumbai. MTNL has 6000 IPTV subscribers and is targeting 10,000 by December & Company already operational in Mumbai and Delhi. IOL Broadband is the other franchisee which has tied up with MTNL for the content delivery network. It has already launched IPTV services on the MTNL network in Mumbai and is planning a Delhi presence as well. MTNL has 300000 broadband subscribers in Mumbai.Our broadband ARPU (average revenue per user) in Mumbai is Rs 600 while for fixed line it is Rs 700. The ARPU for mobile is Rs 300 and VoIP Rs 250. Buy At CurrENT Market price is Rs. 42.00 .hold for one year & see your money grow almost double. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 3 WEEKLY REPORT CARD : [24th to 28th march 2008] THE HEIGHT OF POSSIBILITY! Sensex-11192.46 which was in august 2006 Nifty future-3896.90 which was in April 2007 (Don’t panic on this, this is just result of analysis and it may or may not possible) we have clearly told in our first march month weekly report that fii will play holi with blood in march if you look at the indices sensex has lost 15.75% and nifty fu lost 13.16 %...................... For strong up side sensex has to close above 16750 and nifty fu 4950 on weekly basis. SENSEX: in last week report we have told that index has support at 15230 and 15030 below that level it will slide to 14455 and index made low of 14667 and rebound from that level due to fed announcement otherwise it had violated our last support level. In the next few days daily chart suggest some recovery but weekly chart don’t suggest buying. Sensex has strong resistance at 15633 if it closes above for 2days then it will try to fill gap of 16064. Index has strong support at 14455 if index gives 3 close below that levels then only panic. NIFTY FU: In last week report it was clearly indicated that index has strong resistance at 4855 and it could not cross that level. On the down side support was 4550 and breaks and made low of 4476 and rebound due to fed cut. In the next few days daily chart suggest recovery but weekly chart don’t suggest buying. Index has strong resistance at 4855 that is gap and 4900. WEEKLY COMMODITIES WATCH From last many months we see rally and heavy buying coming in gold, silver and crude but on Wednesday we see heavy selling pressure come in gold and silver this type of downward trend start on Wednesday and expected this While support exist at 4550 and 4420 below that level only panic. GLOBAL MARKET TREND: Don’t become too much happy by seeing the up side in dow/nasdaq/s &p 500 remember Dow has formed the triangle on weekly chart that has to fill and that is 11108. On weekly basis if Dow closes below /NASDAQ/s & p 500 below 11700/2168/1270 then panic. see positive trend. RUBBER MCX APRIL We see some buying coming in rubber and expected this buying coming continue in coming weeks buy on corrective dip at 10400 to 10360 with a upper target of 10440 to 10480 with a stop loss of 10335 SILVER MCX APRIL type of down ward trend continue Sell at current market price and at upper levels 22350 to 22380 with a target of 21950 to 21900 Nikkei suggest some recovery it has strong resistance at 12661. Hang sang has strong resistance at 22034 and 22151 and strong support at 19386. Shanghai will slide to 3200. FTSE has strong support at 5235 and strong resistance at 5773. Strait time weekly close below 2743 only panic. SHORT TERM DELIVERY BASE PICKS: Buy wipro with stop loss of 370 and target is 386 and 404. Buy tata motors with stop loss of 617 and target 670 and 686. Buy bharti airtel with stop loss of 755 above 620 it will fire to 834 and 837. Buy jindal stainless with stop loss of 135 and target of 152 and 161. OBITUARY SMT SHANTABEN V. THAKKAR, MOTHER OF SHRI JAGDISH V THAKKR CA, PASSED AWAY ON MONDAY 10TH MARCH 2008 AT BARODA. WE PRAY ALMIGHTY GOD TO BLESS HER SOUL ETERNAL PEACE AND COURAGE TO FAMILY MEMBERS TO BEAR THE IRREPARABLE LOSS. in coming weeks if gold break the important support of 11800 then we see free fall in gold and for silver support is at 21900 if this support will break yen we see also big fall in silver. Expected some down ward trend in gold and in silver in coming weeks. CHANA MCX MAY Buy at current market price and on corrective dip to rs 2825 to 2790 with a stop loss of rs 2740. With a upper target of 2880 to 2900 above 2920 expected some big rally coming in chana it will zoom up to 2950 to 2980 we see uptrend in chana in coming weeks. MENTHAOIL APRIL Buy for positional with a stop loss of 435 buy on break out close above 456 with a stop loss of 440 if it break the serious support of 435 then we see fall in menta oil but above 460 we see some rally in menta oil for long position take target of 480 and weekly basis take a target of 465 for weekly bias we below 21900 we see some big fall up to 21500 to 20900 with a stop loss of 22800.expected negative trend in coming weeks. GOLD MCX APRIL Sell at current levels at with a target of 11980 to 11800 below 11800 we expected some fall coming in gold a it will go up to 11500 stop loss 12300 CHILLI NCDEX APRIL Buy at current market price a on dip at 4120 to 4080 with a per target of 4160 to 4190 stop loss 4040 above 4190 it will zoom up to 4220.positive trend see in coming weeks JEERA NCDEX APRIL Buy at current levels with a upper target 8700 to 8800 with a stop loss of 8550 below 8520 we see fall in jeera. Volatile trend for coming weeks 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 4 Kotak Bazar Conti. from ....1 note of various plans declared Gujarati issue this week. Comby directors in last Directors re- pany has recently sold some land ports. This is good pick in me- of its Bhandup unit. Company dium to long term invest- Email : [email protected] ments. Local funds are seating on huge Cash waiting to be injected in stock market soon. This company may get some fund buying , too. (4) CEAT : We have also choosen this stock for our recommendations in is proposing to shift its manufacturing facilities at Ambarnath. Later Land of Bhandup may give huge one time profits to the company. Company also trying to start redial tyre manufacturing initially by out sourcing and later by creating capacity at new location. We are hopefull of auto sector sales picking up in near future due to custom duty cut. Later in June, We expect Interest cut which will also boost vehicle sales, adding in top line and bottom line of this company. We advcice Investors to pick this good stock in tire segment. Stock Market Indices Day End Historical Metal Charts Market will be voletile incoming week 1) HDIL( 505.85 ) :- In this scrip nearly 497 and longley 492 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 512 and 2nd target 518 3rd target 524 and 4th target 532 . 2) ACC ( 775.95 ):- In this scrip nearly 768 and longley 763 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 783 and 2nd target 792 target 3 rd 798 and 4 th target 806 . 3) GRASIM ( 2595.05 ) :- In this scrip nearly 2588 and l o n g l e y 2576 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 2612 and 2nd target 2625 2rd target 2642 and 4th target 2659. 4) I-FLEX ( 924.75 ) :- In this scrip nearly 917 and longley 912 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 929 and 2nd target 936 3rd target 942 and 4 th target 947 . 5) REL ( 1206.50) :- In this scrip nearly 1202 and longley 1194 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 1213 and 2nd target 1221 3rd target 1232 and 4th target 1238 . 6) RCOM ( 506.45 ) :- In this scrip nearly 501 and longley 496 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 512 and 2nd target 518 3rd target 525 and 4th target 533 . If we believe that Indian market is, now a days, has become very sensitive to the Global developments, we shall also believe that MONDAY MARKET WILL OPEN WITH GAPE UP AND WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG. Trading Zone : 24-03-2008 Nifty View : 24-03-2008 7) ULTRATECH.( 777.15) :- In this scrip nearly 770 and longley 764 keep the stop loss and buy The 1 st target 782 and 2 nd target 790 3rd target 798 and 4th target 805 . 8) TATA TEA ( 786.90 ) ):In this scrip nearly 781 and longley 776 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 794 and 2nd target 802 3rd target 809 and 4th target 817 . 9) DLF ( 623.00) :- In this scrip nearly 617 and longley 612 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 629 and 2nd target 636 3rd target 643 and 4th target 650 . 10) MUNDRAPORT. ( 497.10 ) :- In this scrip nearly 492 and longley 485 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 503 and 2 nd target 510 3 rd target 517 and 4th target 524 . 11) BHARTI AIRTEL .( 777.75 ):- In this scrip nearly 771 and longley 764 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 784 and 2nd target 791 3rd target 798 and 4th target 807 . 12) M&M( 658.40) :- In this scrip nearly 652 and longley 647 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 664 and 2nd target 672 3rd target 684 and 4th target 692 . 13) TITAN ( 914.80 ) :- In this scrip nearly 903 and longley 896 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 922 and 2nd target 937 3rd target 956 and 4th target 968 14) ONGC ( 992.40) :- In this scrip nearly 986 and longley 980 keep the stop loss and buy The 1st target 1000 and 2nd target 1011 3rd target 1018 and 4th target 1030 . 15) AXIS BANK ( 747.25 ) :- In this scrip nearly 742 and longley 736 keep the stop loss and buy The 1 st target 752 and 2nd target 757 3rd target 761 and 4th target 766. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 5 Sumit bilgaiyan is technical & fundamental analyst. He has vast experience in the stock market last 6 years.He is regularly writing article and daily columns in Leading News papers in Gujarat. He also does PORTFOLIO ADVISORY SERVICES. E-mail: [email protected] Mobile-+91 09755261070 MARKET TREND FOR THIS WEEK For this week sensex resistance at 15090—15200— 15320 above this level next resistance at 15500 in down side support at 14800— 14720—14650 below this level next support is at 14500 if this level break then we see again fall in market .market is volatile for this week. For this week nifty resistance at 4650—4720 above this level next resistance at 4850—4900 in down side support at 4520—4480 below this level next support at 4420—4380 . Market is volatile for this week. STAR FOR THIS WEEK Niit ltd—the stock close on friary with positive notes with huge volume expansion this stock came down from 125 with very bad volume but again we see volume expansion in this stock buy at current levels at 99 with a upper market from 17-03-2008 to 19-03-2008 once again market end in red we see a big fall on monday and on tuesday and wednesday we see some buying coming in market again we see selling pressure see a upper levls and market not stable at upper levels on weekly basis it was a very bad week for market sensex and nifty closed down near 5 % we see second biggest intraday fall in a last week sensex closed below 15000 and nifty closed below 4600 mark on a week end in our previous article we say that if sensex break the level of 15400 then we see 14500 level this was the very important support for market for next week market is very volatile if sensex cross the level of 15350 then we see some recovery come in market but if sensex break the support of 14500 then we see again big fall in market and then next support for the market is 13800.market is volatile for this week. target of 110 to 115 above this next target is 120 stop loss 90 this stock is also good for short term as well as long term. Reliance industries – buy at lower levels at 2140 to 2125 COMPANY GAIL FUT NALCO FUT PNB FUT KOTAK FUT REC FUT STOPLOSS 1575 145 700 3120 1080 STOPLOSS 62 50 82 3.50 “Getting regular income for parents”, “Buying a car next year” The objective here is for medium term investment with regular income and safety of capital. One needs to invest in bond mutual funds that invest very little in equity shares but maximum into bonds and fixed deposits on your behalf for such goals. The objective here is for a short term investment which keeps capital safe provides high liquidity but provides some returns rather than keeping it idle. One needs to invest in liquid mutual fund schemes that make investment into money market instruments and short term bonds on your behalf. Fund Category Compounded Return for 5Yrs. Equity: Diversified 43.88% Equity: Tax Planning 43.07% with a upper target of 2200 to 2250 above 2260 it will zoom up to 2280 to 2300 with a stop loss of 2050 On mobile – buy at current levels at 485 with a upper F & O STOCK FOR THIS WEEK BUYAT TARGET STOPLOSS 416 422 TO 425 409 446 466 TO 472 430 462 470 TO 472 451 546 535 TO 530 558 101 106 TO 110 95 STOCK FOR SHORT TERM COMPANY BUYAT TARGET V GUARD 68 80 TO 90 RT EXPORTS 58 70 TO 85 ANG AUTO 94 100 TO 110 JYOTI OVERSEAS 4.48 6 TO 8 The objective here is of long term capital appreciation and one needs to invest in equity mutual funds that invest in the stock market on your behalf for such goals. Returns from an average mutual fund in each category for the appropriate time are: Market are highly volatile for this week we expected some recovery in market but sensex break the level of 14500 then we see big fall in market . Market is volatile for this week. STOCK FOR THIS WEEK BUYAT TARGET 1600 1620 TO 1650 150 160 TO 168 728 750 TO 760 3160 3200 TO 3250 1102 1120 TO 1140 “Buying a big house after 5 years”, “Sending son abroad for education after 10 years” “Short term alternative to keeping money in the bank” Market for this week COMPANY SBI INTERN CONVE BIL CARE SESA GOA ABB MUTUAL FUND Conti. from ....8 right mutual fund? Let me explain some investment goals and what they mean in the investment world. target of 510 to 520 above 525 it go up to 550 to 580 stop loss of 550 Equity: Index 34.86% ATTENTION The material contained in the Economic Revolution is based on Fundamental and Technical analysis & other scientific methods and also the knowledge and belief of author. Error can not to be rulled out. The information given is of advisory nature only. The Editor, the Publisher and the Author does not take any consequences arising out of it. All rights reserved. Reproducing to whole or in part of any matter including featurs without permision is not permitted. Letgal jurisdiction is Ahmedabad only. The material given in the Economic Revolution is the views of author only, it not means that Editor is agree with it, so Editor, the Publisher and the printer is not resposible for the contains in writers article. Devlaxmi Joshi Editor, The Economic Revolution. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 6 DIFFERENT STROKE FOR LONGTERM GAIN MANJUSHREE This is one of the few companies that have a huge potential for the short, medium and long term. Everything about this company tells me that it’s a keeper. This company is the second largest manufacturer of PET containers in India, after Pearl Polymers, and if you believe what they say, they rank first in terms of profit. They may be the technology leaders, they may be an ISO 9001:2000 certified company, they may have proven management, their wall covered with awards but all this is in the past. What i look out for is what keeps them ticking and for how long. Manjushree has been involved in plastic packaging for over two decades. They are one of the largest producers of PET bottles and jars, closures, PET preforms, including multilayer (co-ex bottles), and has an annual turnover over USD13-million. Now here is the interesting part, their plastics packaging products and services include PET bottles, PET jars, PET containers, Plastic packaging, Multilayer bottles, Co-extruded bottles, PET preforms, Hot-fill PET preforms, Closures and caps, Plastic container design, Plastic mould making and Prototyping Their clientèle include Unilever, Nestle, Pfizer, Pepsi, Coco-Cola, Heinz, Cadburys, Bunge, Glaxo SmithKline, Reckitt & Benckiser and many others. What that means is that whenever you drink coke, make a cup of tata tea, had a britannia biscuit with that tea, feed your kid horlicks or boost, boost your energy with glucose, washed your dishes with prill…(I can go on and on) you probable have laid your hand on Manjushrees’ product ie you bought it. They have ambitious Plans for Milk & Beer Bottles manufacturing, Indigenous manufacture of Polymers Processing Machines in SEZ, Exports of specially developed PET Preforms & Closures to US & other Global Markets. They also have plans to enter the retail sector. What wrong with this company, obviously it cant be that perfect. The problem is that such companies procure technology that can get outdated. This company is still in the process of procuring machinery (for which they went public). Prices of such machinery is likely to increase because of the increase in raw materials. More than 40% of the raw materials for plastic is crude, and we all know where that is heading. All this increases their setup and operating costs. But what worries me the most( for long term in- vestors) is that they dont seem to be doing enough in the biodegradable plastic sector. Environment is a touchy subject and any change in the law in this direction can hamper this type of companies’ future. Migrating its afterall costly and time consuming. Being a Goan, a place where plastic bags are banned, I’ve seen first hand the impact on plastic bag manufacturers in Goa. BUY AT 19 TARGET 35 TO 40 IN 10 TO 12 MONTHS ITD CEMENTATION ITD Cementation India received two contracts worth Rs 4.46 billion from SICAL and Chennai International Terminals. It has received Rs 1.12 billion contract from SICAL Iron Ore Terminals where the scope-of work includes construction of Jetty App r o a c h , Berthing Jetty/ Loading Platform, Ro-Ro Platform and Mooring Platform, apart from civil works for wagon tippler, track hopper, penthouse, stacker reclaimer, surface drains and buildings. The time period of completion is 22 months. This follows an order received from Chennai International Terminals, a subsidiary of Port of Singapore Authority for a value of Rs 3.34 billion. This contract involves designing and construction of an 805 meter long Quay wall for berthing of 1,04,000 DWT container vessels, construction of associated backup yard for container handling and storage. The time period of completion is 19 months.we are positive in this stock for long erm buy at 305 to 500 to 600 in 12 months. BHAGYANAGAR INDIA Bhagyanagar India recently formed a joint venture company named ‘Surana Ventures‘ for setting up of solar photo voltaic cell and module project in partnership with its promoters and a group company named Surana Telecom. The JV plans to manufacture and sell the equipment required for generating solar energy. It will be an 80% export-oriented unit with substantial tax-benefits. Bhagyanagar India and Surana Telecom will hold 40% each in the Rs 3 bn project with the remaining 20% being held by the core promoters of the company”. “We believe that the project will be value accretive for Bhagyanagar India but only on a long term basis as it will be essential to see whether the company can go as per its fund raising plans given the globally weak market conditions. At current levels, the stock quotes at 5.8x FY08E and 5x FY09E fully diluted earnings Buy at 38 target 65 to 80 in 6 to 12 months INVESTOR CAN BUY STOCK AT THIS RATE FOR ONE YEAR HORIZON Dear Investor, almost 4 times at Rs.70.17 crore. Its total expenses also surged equally at Rs.57 crore as against Rs.13.32 crore in Q3 FY07. Of this, the cost on raw materials took away Rs.87.51 crore, which was at Rs.11.16 crore in Q3 FY07. Thanks to the stock-in-trade, the company was able to recoup some of this outgo, yet it continued to remain high. PBT rose over 3 times at Rs.12.34 crore and PAT surged from Rs.3.44 crore to Rs.10.95 crore. The Sensex declined by 766 points (4.9%) to close at 14995. The market has recovered over 200 points on the last day of the truncated week after the US Fed cut its key interest rate by 75bps and better than expected earnings from Lehman Bros and Goldman Sachs. Over the weekend, the Fed had cut its discount rate by a quarter percentage point and had approved JP Morgan’s acquisition of Bear Stearns. The global markets witnessed a relief The growth in net profit and total inrally buoyed by the series of come was primarily Fed announcements. Still, driven by the inC o n c r e a s e d sumer utilisation of Durable, production Metal, capacity at Small its smart C a p , c a r d Auto, manufacBanking, turing faReal Escility, tate and along with Mid-Cap stocks continued a jump in their southbound journey. its regular The Indian markets was shut solutions on March 20 and March 21 due to pub- business. The company commissioned lic holiits 80d a y s . million F&O ex- NO ONE CATCH BOTTOM AND s m a r t piry will per NO ONE CAN FATCH TOP SO cards make the annum market BETTER START INVESTING facility at even more Medchal volatile on the outskirts of Hyderabad in July next week. Record high crude oil prices 2007. The company is targeting 40 miland the unwinding of the Yen carry lion cards during the current financial trade are major concerns. However, year. It is a major beneficiary of the good advance tax figures mean that cor- Railway Budget, which announced that porate earnings growth would be good smart card-based ticketing system was for the fourth quarter. Open interest in on the anvil. the F&O segment has reduced sharply post the correction. The market trend The company is now looking closely will be determined by global factors and at the European markets, to acquire a upcoming results. Financials and real European company, similar to the one estate will remain our top picks, after that it had done in the US, for over the recent correction in both these sec- $50 million (around Rs 200 crore). It tors. Some of the top picks are ICICI is scouting for a company that is enBank, Axis Bank, SBI, HDFC, HDFC gaged in the RFID technology and Bank, DLF, IBulls Real Estate and smartcard solutions. Unitech.. The company, in January 2008, acquired the assets of Proximities Inc and Stock Recomandation for the week: SRG America Inc for a total considerBartronics India, a zero debt company ation of $50 million (around Rs.200 based in Hyderabad is engaged in pro- crore), which it raised through issuance viding solutions using automatic iden- of zero coupon unsecured FCCBs. tification, data capture (AIDC) technologies and radio frequency identifi- It plans to utilise the 80-million procation (RFID) solutions. On Novem- duction capacity at its plant during the ber 16, 2007, the Company announced next financial year. This, coupled with the incorporation of a wholly owned its overseas plans, is expected to fuel the company’s topline to touch Rs.500 subsidiary, Bartronics America Inc. crore next year. For the third quarter ended 31st December 2007, YoY, the company has posted The stock is a good buy at the current very good results. Its net sales was up rate of Rs.165. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 Jindal Photo BSE:532624 Jindal Photo (JINDALPH), part of the B.C. Jindal group, is a manufacturer of photographic and allied products. It was incorporated in 1986. The company‘s product range includes color roll films, analog and digital cameras, photographic color paper, medical X-ray films and equipment, photo processing equipment, cine color positives, photographic chemicals, ..etc. It markets its products under the brand name Fujifilm. The company has a technical and marketing tieup with Fuji Photo Films Company, Japan and a technical tie-up with Fuji Hunt Photographic Chemicals, Singapore (a subsidiary of Fuji, Japan) to manufacture photo chemicals. The ISO 9002 certified company has its manufacturing plants in Dadra and Jammu. Jindal Photo has a photography training institute in Delhi. The Academy of Photographic Excellence conducts one-year diploma courses apart from short-term weekend courses. It has acquired a 38.74% stake in the existing group SPV, namely, Jindal France SAS for acquiring a strategic stake in Coheris SA, a company listed in France. Jindal Imaging is a subsidiary of the company. The company has sold photo-finishing labs throughout the country as part of its business strategy. It has set up 800 Fuji image service (FIS) facilities, a specialized outlet to sell Fuji products and over 400 Fuji digital imaging (FDi) facilities as an extension of the imaging services already available across India. The company markets the Fuji digital range of products including digital ID systems, digital cameras, and digitized photographic processing equipments after importing it from Japan. The registered office of the company is located in 260/23, Sheetal Industrial Estate, Demani Road, Dadra and Nagar Haveli Union Territory-396193. Jindal Photo has made an investment in the existing group SPV viz., Jindal France SAS by way of subscription to 2.8 million shares of 1 euro each in its share capital at a value of 2.8 million euros constituting 38.74% of its increased share capital. One of the other group companies has also made an investment of Euros 0.7 million towards subscription to 0.7 million shares of 1 euro each. The aggregate equity amount of 3.5 million euros to- 7 gether with loan has been utilized by the said SPV for the purpose of acquiring strategic stake in Coheris SA, a company listed in France.Coheris SA is in the business of software publishing in the field of CRM and business intelligence and occupies leadership position in Europe in this area.At the current price of Rs. 126 it is trading just below 3 of estimated current year’s EPS . Investat every decline and ata reasonable pe if 5 this stock must go up to rs. 225 in medium term. Manugraph India BSE:505324 Manugraph India was established in 1972 for manufacturing high speed printing machines and allied equipment. It currently is the largest manufacturer of offset and sheet fed offset presses in the country. It is a leader in the niche 4-page newspaper offset printing press market. It also caters customers in markets like South America, Europe, Middle East, Asia and the CIS countries. VEB Polygraph Leipzing G D R and Kovo of Czechoslovakia are technical collaborators of the company. Some of the clients of the company include newspapers like The Times of India, Dainik Bhaskar, Hindustan Times, Dainik Jagran, etc. The company is the leader in manufacturing and supplying of web offset presses. It has market share of 70%. Nearly all-major publication houses in the country use the presses having speeds ranging from 35,000 to 55,000 copies per hour. The company provides customised solutions for newspaper printing, 16 page commercial printing, automated sheet fed presses and ancillary products like remote ink control systems. The company also has a team of over one hundred service specialists for providing services before and after the press installation. They provide services for installation, maintenance, planning and repairs. The company also maintains a supply of 90% of the spare parts required for all its presses. The company plans to stay focused in the services segment, in the coming years. It also intends to take part in trade shows in India, CIS countries and other places, in order to attract newer customers and combat competition from Chinese manufacturers. Company holds 70% markdt share in printing press and leading co;mpany of India. Now its share price come do;wn to one third of it high made in recent past. Company may register Rs. 16 EPS in current year and at currentprice of Rs. 80 this scrip trading just on 5 PE and good tome to pick this to earn handsom return in medium term. Orchid Chemical & Pharmaceuticals Limited BSE:524372 Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (ORCHIDCHEM) is a Chennai-based pharmaceuticals (bulk drugs) company. With exports spanning more than 75 countries, it is the largest manufacturerexporter of cephalosporin bulk actives in India and is ranked amongst the top five cephalosporin producers globally. The company was incorporated on July 1, 1992 and obtained the certificate for commencement of business on Oct. 15. ORCHIDCHEM‘s antibiotics portfolio includes cephalosporins, high-end betalactams, monobactams and carbapenems. Its non-antibiotic product portfolio covers drugs in central nervous system, cardiovascular, gastro-intestinal, pain management and osteoporosis therapeutic categories, ..etc. Orchid has two manufacturing sites for APIs and three manufacturing sites for dosage forms besides two R&D centers. In 1994, it entered into an agreement with SBD Laboratories, Italy for technology to keep production in sterile condition. In 1998, it entered into the formulation market. The Drug Controller of India granted a licence to Cipla and Orchid Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals to export sildenafil citrate, the bulk drug that goes into Pfizer‘s patented anti-impotence pill Viagra. In 2000, it entered into a joint venture with the UK-based Cambridge Chemicals to distribute its nutraceutical products in that country. The managing director K. Raghavendra Rao has been conferred the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa) by the Thanjavur based SASTRA University. The honor was conferred on K. Raghavendra Rao at the XXI Convocation of the University held in Thanjavur on July 28, 2007. The Doctorate has been bestowed for his entrepreneurial achievements and contribution to the growth of the Indian pharma industry. The company received approval from the US FDA for its ANDAs (abbreviated new drug application) for Cefdinir for capsules 300 mg and Cefdinir for oral suspension 125 mg/5 ml and 250 mg/5 ml. Cefdinir is a life-saving cephalosporin antibiotic drug which became generic only recently. This stock was beaten by 40 percent last week but there is no fundamentally change in this company Now at Rs.116 it is trading at only on PE and in long term it will fetch attractive return. Invest at every decline. List of Holidays BSE will observe the following Trading Holidays during the Calendar Year January to December, 2008. Holidays 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Mahashivratri Id-E-Milad Good Friday / Holi (1 st Day) Ambedkar Jayanti Mahavir Jayanti Maharashtra Day Buddha Purnima Independence Day Ganesh Chathurthi Ramzan Id / Gandhi Jayanti Dasera Diwali (Laxmi Pujan) Diwali ( Bhaubeez) Gurunanak Jayanti Bakri-Id Christmas Date Day 6th March 2008 20th March 2008 21st March 2008 14th April 2008 18th April 2008 1st May 2008 19th May 2008 15th August 2008 3rd Septe. 2008 2nd October 2008 9th October 2008 28th October 2008 30th October 2008 13th November 2008 9th December 2008 25th December 2008 Thursday Thursday Friday Monday Friday Thursday Monday Friday Wednesday Thursday Thursday Tuesday Thursday Thursday Tuesday Thursday 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 8 STOCK MARKET PREDICTION FOR THE WEEK OF 24-03-2008 TO 28-03-2008 INTRODUCTION Rajnikant Thakkar a well known name in Financial corporate Astrology. He is working with a financial institution since 1982.He has been awarded ·Jyotish Ratnam by Bruhad Gujarat Astrological Society, Ahmedabad ·Jyotish Visharad by Bruhad Gujarat Astrological Society, Ahmedabad · J y o t i s h Visharad by Academy of Vedic Astrology (K.P.), Ahmedabad ·Award of Honour by Steller Healing Research Centre, Chandigardh ·Jyotish Bhaskar by by Akhil Bhartiya Saraswati Jyotish Manch, Delhi ·Jyotish Marmagna by Future Point Pvt. Ltd ·K.P. Hora Ratna by K.P. Sari, Chennai · Jyotish Vachasparti by K.P. Sari, Chennai He is giving his astrological views in many leading newspapers and magazines. During the week Sun will transit from Pisces, Moon will transit from Libra to Scorpio, Mercury will transit from Aquarius, Venus will transit from Aquarius, Mars will transit from Gemini, Jupiter will transit from Sagittarius, Saturn will transit from Leo, Rahu from Aquarius, Ketu from Leo, Pluto from Sagittarius, Neptune from Capricorn and Harshal from Aquarius. Looking to the above planetary position the market will act as on: 24 Monday Open & Close with bear. Electrical, Electronic, I.T. PSU, Will decline. 25 Tuesday Open with bull trend flat from 14.52 p.m. Bank, Paper, Luxuries items, Beverages, Hotel, Motel, Diamond, Jwellary will rise. 26 Wednesday Open & Close with bear. All sectors will decline, sell on each jump. 27 Thursday Bear day, all sectors will decline. 28 Friday Open with bull trend, dual trend from 13.25 p.m. but at the close market will rise. Chemical, Infrastructure, Color, Bank, Paper, Housing will rise. During the week Cummins, Grasim, HPCL, Polaris Software, Bongaigaon Refinery, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, Matrix Lab, NDTV, Nicholas Piramal, Orchid Chemical, Patni Computers, SBI and SCI will give good return. A Mutual Fund is a trust which holds the money invested by a group of investors All of us as adults spend a lifetime working hard to earn money. Money is probably the most vital commodity for leading a good life. As wise men have said, money is not everything - money is not an end but it is definitely the means to many ends that provide us happiness and accomplishment – may it be a big house, a luxury car, professional education for our children, a wedding celebration in the family, a well-deserved foreign vacation or an independent retired life. I am sure that all of you have worked hard to gain expertise in your profession and earn money to lead a fruitful life. But having done that, do you know how to grow your money? Does your money earn more money for you? There are so many questions everyone has about money but no answers!!! grow it and ensure that it does not lose its value. Have you ever thought that if you work hard to earn Rs. 100 and then invest it badly losing its value by Rs. 10 worth of inflation that means you have wiped out 10% of your efforts! Just imagine you have worked hard for 40 years and your employer pays you salary for only 36 years!!! This is exactly the effect inflation has on your investment. It is our duty towards our family How do you make your money grow with the best possible returns? How much money do you need for a contented retired life? Why do bank deposits return only 8% but shares can multiply money? How do you save tax? Why does the stock market go up one day and down the other? How does politics matter to one’s personal finance? There are doctors for medical health but who protects financial health? If you think about these matters you will realize that our educational system does not teach us how to manage money, how to that we safeguard their financial future and that does not end with just earning money. When you fall sick you do not treat yourself, when your car breaks down you do not repair it yourself, so why manage your own money and let your finances fall into disrepair??? For making sure that your life’s efforts are not going down the drain please make sure you have prepared a financial plan with the help of an expert – your doctor for financial health. Professionally managed money by way of Mutual Funds is the right solution to all your problems. What is a Mutual Fund? How WORLD MARKET END POSITVE ON GOOD FRIDAY AND HEAR WITH SENDING SOME TECHNICAL PICTURES OF BSE AND NSE YEARLY CHARTS SHOWS SOME HOPE FOR MARKET IF M A R K E T SURGE FROME MOND A Y UNTILL 3 1 MARCH A N D CLOSE ABOVE 17300/ 5230 THEN THERE WILL BE DOUBLE TOPE IN SAME YEAR WISH YOU ALL HAPPY HOLI,GOOD FRIDAY,IDD MUBARAQ, NAVROZE TOO PRAY GOOD FOR GOOD DAY AHEAD MARVELLOUS RESEARCH does it work? A Mutual Fund is a trust which holds the money invested by a group of investors in safe custody. This trust is managed by a board of trustees which appoints a third party fund management company called the asset management company to invest the money on behalf of these investors. An asset management company – AMC - is a professional body whose only job is to manage other people’s money for a fee that they charge. The fees are regulated by SEBI and whatever returns that the fund manager generates are paid back to the investors either by way of dividend declared by trustees or by way of an appreciation in the net asset value of the mutual fund scheme. Investors are supposed to deposit money with the trust under various schemes of their choice. There are different schemes for different investment goals. There are equity mutual fund schemes for investors who want long term capital appreciation, there are bond mutual funds for investors who want regular income and there are money market or liquid mutual funds for investors who want safety of capital and high liquidity with medium returns. In real life investors have investment goals like , “I want to buy a big house after 5 years”, “I want to send my son to USA for education after 10 years”, “I want to get a monthly income for my retired parents”, “I want to buy a car next year”, “I want an alternative investment rather than keeping money idle in my bank” etc. So how do they select the Continue on ....5 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 9 GOOD LONGTERM BET SIMPLEX INFRASTRUCTURES Simplex Infrastructures was incorporated as Simplex Concrete Piles (India) Ltd in 1924. The company came under the management of the Mundhra family in 1947. The company went public in 1993 and changed its name to Simplex Infrastructures in 2005. With over 80 years of experience, Simplex has a presence in several streams of infrastructure, industrial and real estate construction. The infrastructure presence of the company spans across power, marine, urban infrastructure, roads, railways and bridges. Real estate construction covers the building and housing projects and the industrial sector caters to the industrial construction demand. The piling sector, where Simplex Infrastructures is known for its expertise, caters to the demand from all three streams of the company. We expect the company to benefit from the increased thrust of the Government on infrastructure as well as growing construction demand in the real estate sector, going forward. Following are the key business segments of Simplex : Power Power division projects span across the construction of thermal, hydroelectric, and nuclear power plants. Simplex does civil works, design and construction of coal handling plants, water treatment plants along with construction of RCC chimneys, cooling towers and cooling water systems. The current order book of the company in the power segment stands at Rs.12.9 bn. Marine Simplex Infrastructures has been present in this segment since 1960 and is associated with most of the major marine projects in India. Marine division projects entail construction of ports, jetties, wharves, terminals, lighthouses, breakwaters and quays. The current order book of the company in this segment stands at Rs.8.3 bn. BSE Code : 531266 Current Price : Rs. 116.75 Equity : 5.76 Crore VST Tillers Tractors Ltd. is a major player in the power tiller industry and is cashing in on the tractor boom. It also has an integrated facility for engine components. Its products find application in dry tilling, cultivating, deweeding, water pumping, ploughing, ridging, wet pud- BSE Code : 532838 Current Price : Rs. 493.85 Equity : 9.85 Crore Urban infrastructure In this division, Simplex has taken projects in water, waste and sewerage treatment plants, pipelines and metro rails. The company was also associated with the prestigious Delhi Metro Rail project. Simplex has also bagged repeat orders. The current order book in the segment stands at Rs.12.9 bn. Transportation Simplex has constructed flyovers, elevated corridors, roads, railways tracks and other related activities. The company has been associated with prestigious projects and has built a vast experience with the current outstanding order book standing close to Rs.15.6 bn in this segment. Building and housing Projects in this division span across constructing multi-storied residential and commercial towers, mass housing, and institutional buildings. Order inflow in this segment is quite strong due to strong demand emerging from real estate developers for their residential and commercial projects. Simplex would continue to leverage on its expertise to bag quality projects in this segment. The current order book of the company stands at Rs.23 bn in this segment. Thus with a strong order book of Rs.92 bn in diversified across piling, power, marine, transportation, building and housing, urban infrastructure and industrial projects, is a good bet for medium to long term. Sales and NP for year ended 06 – 07 were 1708.3 Cr. & 53.9 Cr. Sales and NP for latest Quarter 704 Cr. & 22Cr. On YOY basis NP has increased by 28 % & based on quarter latest its increased by 29% Dividend during year ended 06 – 07 was 80 % One can buy this stock for an upside of 25 – 30 % in next 3 - 4 months. VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD dling and transportation of goods. Its engine components have great export potential. The promoters hold 55.6% in its equity capital. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries holds 3%, non-promoter corporates hold 7% leaving 34.4% with the investing public. VST Tillers has 30 acres of land in prime areas of Bangalore and Mysore. It has 23 acres land vacant as its plant occupies only 7 acres and its land value is believed to be pegged at a whopping Rs.300 cr. Sources say that VSTTTL might consider relocating its plants due to traffic inconvenience. If this happens, it will unlock substantial value for shareholders. The government’s policy on agriculture and the introduction of the Bharat Nirman Programme for creating massive rural infrastructure that will directly boost the demand for VST Tillers products. Overseas, several importers realizing the business potential for its power tillers have begun imports. These low cost tillers qualify under subsidy schemes that could intensify competition abroad. The demand for VST Tillers tractors started on a buoyant note especially in Maharashtra and Gujarat. With higher volumes planned, new markets for low horse power (HP) tractors are being es- IVRCL Based in Hyderabad, IVRCL is an infrastructure development Company. The Company focuses on four infrastructure segments - Water & Environment, Transportation, Building & Industrial Structures and Power. The water division of IVRCL lays down water pipelines for supplying drinking and industrial water, lift irrigation projects, construct underground drainage and sewer treatment plants, build recycling and recovery facilities and lay down pipelines for delivery of oil and gas. IVRCL Water Infrastructures Limited focuses on water related DBOOT and BOT projects. IVRCL’s transportation division builds new roads and highways and upgrade the existing road infrastructure. IVRCL Road Tollways Limited was formed with a focus on BOT projects. The subsidiary invests in and operates long term BOT projects like toll ways. The building and industrial structure division of IVRCL develops residential, commercial and industrial properties. IVR Prime operates in this segment and presently it is developing properties in tablished. The growth of the power tiller and tractor industry is directly linked to the GDP growth of the Indian economy. The Central and State Governments have given priority to agriculture and rural development by providing subsidies to small and marginal farmers. It is pertinent to note that almost 70% of the power tillers sold by VST Tillers are through government schemes. As such the prospects for VST Tillers look extremely bright. Any move of shifting its manufacturing base from its prime location in Bangalore and Mysore will unlock substantial value for its shareholders. Sales and NP for year ended 06 – 07 were 162.3Cr & 12.5Cr. Sales and NP for latest Quarter 44.9Cr & 3.4Cr. On YOY basis NP has increased by 69% Dividend during year ended 06 – 07 was 40 % One can buy this stock for an upside of 25 – 30% in next 6 months. BSE Code : 527001 Current Price : Rs. 357.60 Equity : 26.69 Crore Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Noida and Pune. The power division of IVRCL installs transmission lines, high voltage distribution systems and sub-stations. The power division also provides support to the other divisions of IVRCL. IVRCL currently has a strong order-book position of Rs10597 crore (4.24x FY07 sales) and more than 60% of the order backlog is in irrigation sector, remaining 40% is contributed by transportation, urban infrastructure and power transmission and distribution business. Sales and NP for year ended 06 – 07 were 2346.5 Cr & 142 Cr. Sales and NP for latest Quarter 985.6Cr & 64.1Cr. On YOY basis NP has increased by 53 % & based on quarter latest its increased by 102 % Dividend during year ended 06 – 07 was 50 % One can buy this stock for a upside of 30 – 40 % in next 4 – 6 months. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 10 FROM THE LION’S DEN IS THIS THE END OF AGONY? might not be so bad. Indian market has been experiencing bear phase since the last 10 weeks. The bear phase is very painful and leaves behind lot of scars on the portfolio of investors. This time their portfolio has been reduced to less than 50% of the invested amount. So every investor and trader has been asking the same question, as to when this painful correction will end. The liquidity flow in the US market due to the recent rate cuts, will find its way in the Indian market. That will be the trigger that might change the sentiment of the trading fraternity. As a result the Indian Mutual funds, who are sitting on a huge pile of cash, will have put the money in the market. Q. Has the correction ended? LION ROARS: The answer cannot be a simple yes or no. When the market fell steeply from a dizzy height, we called this a sharp correction. The market got hurt because of the steep fall and is now resting before trying to move up. It will be difficult to differentiate between the last phase of correction and the start of a recovery. The recovery will be a slow and painful process. The market will first come out of ICU, into a normal hospital room and then in the next stage will be discharged from the hospital. So the process is bound to take sometime. Infact it will be healthy for the market, if it Q. Will short selling be bad for our market? LION ROARS: Short selling, which will be allowed come April 21st 2008, will certainly not be bad for our market. The reasons are discussed below: 1. Our market has always been a long only market. That means that one has to have a bullish view in the market or a stock, so that he can buy at a lower price and sell when it reaches a higher level. But there was no way, one could express that a stock was overpriced. But now, that will change and one will be able to short the stock at unsustainable prices. So it won’t be ONE WAY traffic anymore. 2. Introduction of short selling will lead to a better price discovery mechanism. The market price will be determined by the demand and supply forces, with- SHAHENSHAH OF FINANCIAL JUNGLE rests for sometime before running again. out any undue advantage to either side. Q. What should the investors and traders do? 3. It will be difficult for the operators to jack up the prices easily, as others in the know can short the script. Henceforth, stock price manipulation will be difficult. LION ROARS: Investors, for the first time in the last four years, are able to find value in the Indian stock market. Investors should keep in mind that the Indian growth story is still intact. So, when the market itself has corrected 30% from the top, it is an opportunity for the investors to buy for the long term and reap the benefits. Returns from this level will be atleast 50% over a 12 to 18 months perpective. So investors should start investing, as such opportunities are rare and should not be wasted. As far as traders are concerned, they should stay away as the market is very choppy and volatile. The chances of making money appear slim and the chances of the stop loss getting triggered are very high. Traders better stay away. Q. What will lead to reversal in the trend? LION ROARS: The main trigger will be the Q4 results. The result season will kick off in the first week of April and that will provide a direction to the market. The advance tax figures of the Indian companies are very robust and that is a good indicator that the earnings 4. Short selling need not mean that the prices will decline easily. Infact, short sellers will cover their short positions when the market falls and they act as a cushion to the falling prices. 5. Short covering rally are a treat to watch in the stock market. Short covering can often lead to panic buying and that rally is generally one sided. This leads to a bear squeeze. There is no need to sympathize if the bears are squeezed. What is the conclusion? LION ROARS: Simple, start investing, as the investors never had it so good. There is utter pessimism in the market and that precisely is the reason that the bear phase will end sooner rather than later. Always remember that majority of the people lose money in the stock market and in the same logic, majority are normally never right. So when every one is talking of Sensex in four digits, it is time for you to take the fishing rod out and do some bottom fishing. BY THE WAY HAPPY HOLI TO ALL, LION SIGNS OFF AND LEAVES FOR HUNTING. BEWARE OF OPERATORS CALL, SURE SHORT, Punters CALLS We have come across few people charg- We request all to be aware of such ing huge fees misguiding people that cheatings. You will loose your money in they have connection with operators. If such a call. Even if on few occasion you any one of you Had joined such services get some information, you in past, you must have bad experience shall understand of Loosing money. In January crash, F that such operaO K ES D we have seen some of the E tors will never H MT O M-cap And small R be trust worF TER caps fallen more thy. Some one A LET than 50 %. All of near to the operators can such calls were resort to such illegal practices only given under such causing heavy losses to innocent invesmisleading matters. No operator tors. If he buys or sells, he is the looser in would like to take risk Of supplying in- spreading news about his activities. Only sider information calls because, Opera- when he wants to exit, he will give buy tors have huge exposures. call so that he can have safe exit. AK T O DK A R SHA ONE BIG CHANNEL IS ANTI INVESTORS? Most of the investors must have seen that one TV Channel spreading UN authenticated news to help some people. Last time we had seen such news on one TV channel covering story about relaxation in P-Note norms. Till today such news are not confirmed by concerned authorities. On the day this channel spread UN confirmed news that SEBI may restore P-note status to its original form and market had seen buying. It might have deliberate act to support some people to exit safely. We strongly protest against such news. Nothing has heard in this news till date. What was the purpose of spreading UN confirmed news? To help few? We hope you got the idea about this TV channel. It is also seen that this channel hammering on mindset of investors by repeated bull or bear scenario by calling only those analyst who endorse views expressed by this channel one sided. Investors shall avoid watching this channel. MARKET MAY SEE SOME BUYING IN COMING DAYS ? We feel that Global markets have shown some positivity during last week. We are in correcting phase since January. Now people have lost confidence in the market. Why we shall follow Few FIIS ? time. Few people hammering stocks to crash the market in early minutes shall be checked legally or morally , too, if not possible by prevailing lows. Specific US market is trading below one year averages, still we have not seen crash like January happened in India. It questions stability of our market as well as capacity of regulating authority. Such instances rattles affects confidence for longer Norms shall be formed to check such instances. We shall urge SEBI and concerned ministry to take stern action against price hammering people. It is not the act one man can perform. It is the work of cartel which has successfully managed this drama more than once. DIVIDEND DECLARED ScripCode 505232 530007 517174 500166 531213 500488 524388 505790 500150 532276 506390 500660 500674 524174 506222 500680 Scrip Name DENISON HYDR JK TYRE IND HONEYWEL AUT GOODRICK GRP MANAP GEN FI ABBOTT INDIA CRAZY INFOTE FAG BEARING FOSECO INDA SYNDICATE CLARI CHEM GLAXOSMITH AVENTIS PHAR KESAR PETROP LANXESS ABS PFIZER LTD. Ex-Date 24 Mar 2008 24 Mar 2008 25 Mar 2008 27 Mar 2008 27 Mar 2008 28 Mar 2008 28 Mar 2008 28 Mar 2008 28 Mar 2008 28 Mar 2008 31 Mar 2008 02 Apr 2008 03 Apr 2008 03 Apr 2008 03 Apr 2008 03 Apr 2008 Purpose Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend Interim Dividend Dividend Stock Split from Dividend Final Dividend Interim Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend Rs. 5.00 2.70 10.00 1.50 1.50 17.50 Rs.10/-to Re.1/4.00 7.00 1.50 10.00 36.00 12.50 Reduction of Capital- Dividend Dividend 3.00 27.50 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 Madhav Ranade (M) 09371002943 or email : [email protected] You have seen the trading levels last few weeks and how good they worked …….. now I have given the levels for a few stocks. Full list covers about 60 stocks. These levels will be available only to my yahoo group paid members. Position trading entry levels as well as stoplosses should be considered as triggered when the level is consistently breached for a minimum period of 15/ 20 minutes. Also breaching of the level in the opening / last 15 minutes of trade should not be considered at all. Today, I have given levels for 8 stocks, 4 commodities and 5 important world indices. This should give you some indication about the shape of things to come. One thing I must mention at this juncture. Not one of my paid clients has made a loss in the last six / eight week’s upheaval. All of them were out of their longs when nifty broke 5880 on daily closing level. This level was given to them in first week of January. The aggressive traders infact Stocks Commodities Trading levels for 24 th / 28 th march 2008 . . . made tonnes of money by going naked shorts or buying puts. My paid subscribers get levels for 60 stocks. But it is advisable to pick any 10/12 stocks of your choice and track. Even if you can take 2/3 trades you may find atleast one big winner and make enough money to pay my annual fee of rupees 6,000. For this please go to my group http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/ g r o u p / S U M A M U R A POSITIONTRADING/ I have also started a new yahoo group for options trading guidance. The subscription is 12,000 rupees for full year. With a capital of just 50,000 rupees, you will have potential to earn minimum of 10,000/12,000 rupees – every month. http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/ group/sumamura-optionstrading I am now available on yahoo messenger on most of the trading days and you can add me on your yahoo messenger. My yahoo id is madhavranade1 Please call me if you have any doubts or you need levels for some other stock. I am available on 09371002943 or on [email protected] 11 WEEKLY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS ANURAG GUPTA MOBILE : 9255191643 SYMBOL CLOSE NF MARCH 4572.70 ADLAB FUTURE 535.95 ABB FUTURE 1104.30 ACC FUTURE 776.15 BA.BARODA F 271.90 BEL FUTURE 1194.05 BEML FUTURE 985.65 BHEL FUTURE 1853.70 BOMDYE FUTU 588.25 BPCL FUTURE 386.75 CANBK FUTU 207.80 CENTTEX FUTU 673.25 CIPLA FUTURE 206.65 DIVISLAB FUT 1189.95 DRREDDY FUT 544.65 GAIL FUTURE 418.45 GRASIM FUTU 2602.30 HCLTECH FUT 256.40 HDFC FUTURE 2225.20 HDFCBA FUTU 1269.35 HEROHON FUT 653.25 HINDUNI FUTU 225.70 IDFC FUTURE 139.75 IDBI FUTURE 85.25 IFCI FUTURE 41.00 HINDPET FUTU 255.15 I-FLEX FUTURE 927.00 ICICIBANK FUT 768.70 INDIACEM FUT 169.90 INFOSYSH FU 1345.40 IOC FUTURE 434.25 ITC FUTURE 187.35 IVRCLIN FUTU 357.25 LT FUTURE 2844.85 M&M FUTURE 663.85 MARUTI FUTU 824.35 MTNL FUTURE 97.40 NDTV FUTURE 371.95 ONGC FUTURE 996.85 ORIENTBANK F 162.00 PARSVNATH F 191.70 PRAJI FUTURE 111.10 PUNJLLO FUTU 313.95 PATNI FUTURE 205.30 RANBA FUTUR 449.70 REL FUTURE 1209.60 RELCAPIT FUT 1100.60 RELIANCE FUT 2157.80 SATMCP FUTU 390.25 SOBHA FUTUR 599.75 SBIN FUTURE 1605.45 TATAMO FUTU 644.05 TATAPOWER F 1050.80 TATATEA FUT 776.75 TCS FUTURE 813.20 TATASTEEL FU 635.80 TITAN FUTURE 926.75 UNITECH FUTU 267.90 TATACOM FUT 509.75 WIPRO FUTURE 377.55 ZEEL FUTURE 245.00 FROM 24 March TO 29 March 2008 TREND BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH BULLISH BULLISH BEARISH RES2 4852.23 642.25 1219.73 825.98 310.93 1396.62 1185.22 2005.50 686.08 437.92 227.13 748.75 218.48 1300.28 575.55 436.28 2917.10 284.07 2571.73 1416.98 734.42 251.90 157.65 98.68 50.40 278.12 1000.30 908.30 195.27 1396.13 485.42 197.02 396.95 3056.95 723.85 861.45 106.27 390.75 1055.88 199.03 217.93 136.87 366.25 223.77 481.90 1375.13 1385.27 2346.57 418.08 692.98 1712.48 686.02 1236.70 833.22 883.47 723.93 1099.58 317.87 600.65 414.85 276.33 Email : [email protected] RES1 TREND LEVELSUPP1 SUPP2 4712.47 4594.23 4454.47 4336.23 589.10 559.60 506.45 476.95 1162.02 1092.38 1034.67 965.03 801.07 773.08 748.17 720.18 291.42 277.48 257.97 244.03 1295.33 1228.72 1127.43 1060.82 1085.43 1030.22 930.43 875.22 1929.60 1852.80 1776.90 1700.10 637.17 601.08 552.17 516.08 412.33 394.42 368.83 350.92 217.47 209.23 199.57 191.33 711.00 676.25 638.50 603.75 212.57 206.08 200.17 193.68 1245.12 1183.83 1128.67 1067.38 560.10 542.55 527.10 509.55 427.37 414.83 405.92 393.38 2759.70 2672.60 2515.20 2428.10 270.23 251.12 237.28 218.17 2398.47 2266.73 2093.47 1961.73 1343.17 1255.18 1181.37 1093.38 693.83 668.42 627.83 602.42 238.80 228.40 215.30 204.90 148.70 141.55 132.60 125.45 91.97 88.28 81.57 77.88 45.70 42.90 38.20 35.40 266.63 258.32 246.83 238.52 963.65 931.85 895.20 863.40 838.50 780.35 710.55 652.40 182.58 172.32 159.63 149.37 1370.77 1338.88 1313.52 1281.63 459.83 441.42 415.83 397.42 192.18 186.62 181.78 176.22 377.10 360.15 340.30 323.35 2950.90 2815.95 2709.90 2574.95 693.85 655.00 625.00 586.15 842.90 821.45 802.90 781.45 101.83 98.42 93.98 90.57 381.35 375.60 366.20 360.45 1026.37 995.73 966.22 935.58 180.52 170.48 151.97 141.93 204.82 196.48 183.37 175.03 123.98 117.02 104.13 97.17 340.10 315.85 289.70 265.45 214.53 202.27 193.03 180.77 465.80 448.90 432.80 415.90 1292.37 1226.23 1143.47 1077.33 1242.93 1146.47 1004.13 907.67 2252.18 2191.62 2097.23 2036.67 404.17 382.03 368.12 345.98 646.37 613.33 566.72 533.68 1658.97 1623.48 1569.97 1534.48 665.03 631.02 610.03 576.02 1143.75 1085.05 992.10 933.40 804.98 778.77 750.53 724.32 848.33 809.67 774.53 735.87 679.87 654.93 610.87 585.93 1013.17 951.58 865.17 803.58 292.88 273.82 248.83 229.77 555.20 514.55 469.10 428.45 396.20 372.75 354.10 330.65 260.67 244.33 228.67 212.33 PLEASE UNDERSTAND BEFORE YOU TRADE TRADING GUIDELINES (or how to trade using this sheet): World indices 1. This model is based on the premise that the TREND LEVEL is the most important price level that decides the intraday trend. Much like how the door or a window hangs by a hinge and sways in the wind, the intraday trend also hangs by this TREND LEVEL and swings because of the demand-supply, volatility and market sentiments prevailing in the market. Hence its importance in intraday trading. 2. Opening Price is considered around close of previous day. Avoid BUYING if Prices open abnormally High and Avoid SELLING if prices open too low. 3. If the market price is stable above the TREND LEVEL, then GO LONG. and book profit near the resistant level (res1 and res2) 4. If the market price is stable below the TREND LEVEL, then GO SHORT. and book profit near the support level (sup1 and sup2) 5. STOP LOSS: Since you are aware of the ‘potential returns’ at the time of initiating an intraday trade (difference between the entry price and profit targets), you should set up an appropriate STOP LOSS around 1% above below of the trade price to protect yourself if the market turns and goes against you. 6. ALTERNATE STRATEGY: If you have already initiated a trade with clear-cut profit targets and a stop loss level, and find during the course of the trading day that the market turns and goes the other way and crosses the TREND LEVEL, then trade again: .For instance, if your first trade was a LONG trade and the market price drops through the TREND LEVEL to lower price levels, then GO SHORT. . And, if your first trade was a SHORT trade, and the market price rises through the TREND LEVEL to higher price levels, then GO LONG. 23-3-2008 to 29-3-2008 12 INTRODUCTION : Nikhil Bhatt is a professional technical analyst based in Gujarat. He has 8 years of experience in the Indian stock market. His articles on the subject of stock market are very popular in Gujarat/Maharashtra and he is regularly writing articles, daily columns including stock price predictions related to Indian Stock Market in more than 14 Leading News Papers published in Gujarat. He is a dedicated, devoted, goal oriented person by nature and renders his technical analysis services to FIIs, Mutual Funds, Stock brokers, High net-worth individuals and Investors. He has a superb past track record of successful and accurate predictions of the Indian Stock Market. Nikhil Bhatt has designed INVESTMENT POINT with a view to allow money to ‘flow-in’ for its readers. He provides you with a correct trend of the market and stocks with logical support/resistance levels and well-defined stop losses to protect your money. His product is targetted to benefit the day traders, position traders and investors at large. Nikhil Bhatt says “OUR EXPERIENCE IS YOUR TREASURE” SENSEX –14995 as on 19.03.2008 Dear Friends, Sensex has resistance at 15078 - 15175 Sensex has resistance at 15078 – 15175 Level with highly Volatile Trend ; above which other resistance levels are at 15217 15330. In downside support levels are at 14917 - 14808 levels; below 14808 level, other support levels are at 14617 -14419 levels. I am positive for next week above 15337 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...Regarding long term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If sensex crosses 15447 Level, again then the upper side target is quite high and it may touch 15770 Level before MARCH - 2008….!!! One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to book profits. This is a pessimistic out- GOLDEN STOCKS FOR THE WEEK 1. SINTEX IND : ( 333 ) : Buy at Rs 326 levels considering minor support of Rs 323 and stoploss of Rs 318 for an upper target of Rs 349 – 359 levels. Below Rs. 318 it can slide upto RS 309 and RS 301 levels. 2. FEDARAL BANK : ( 202 ) : Operator based buying has been there in this stock. It is suggested to buy at RS 193 with SL of RS 189 for the target of Rs 219 – 223; below RS 193 it can fall up to RS 181 - 178 levels. If it crosses Rs 223 level than expect non stop rally up to Rs 237. 3. INDIAN HOTEL : ( 108 ) : This HOTEL stock is looking very good to buy at Rs 101 with SL of RS 93 for the target of RS 116 – 121 levels below Rs. 93 stock shall witness free fall. 4. HINDALCO : ( 153 ) : Buy delivery of this stock at current levels with SL of Rs 146 for the target of Rs 166 – 170 level. It is very good for long term position also. 5. EMCO LTD : ( 185 ) : Buy at Rs 180 with SL of Rs 178 for the target of Rs 199 – 208 levels below Rs. 178 it can show further fall. 6. ANG AUTO : ( 94 ) : Technically accumulation in this stock has been at these levels. Buy at Rs 90 with SL of RS 87 for the target of RS 109 – 116 levels. It is very good for short to medium term. 7. FORTIS FIN : ( 45 ) : Buy at Rs 40 With SL of RS 37 for the target of RS 56 – 59 level. It is very good for medium to long term investment. 8. MODIPON LTD : ( 64 ) : Buy at Rs 60 with SL of Rs 57 for the target of RS 73 – 79 levels. It is very good for medium to long term investment. 9. TATA ELXI : ( 150 ) : Buy at Rs 143 with SL of RS 131 for the target of RS 169 – 173 levels . It is very good for medium to long term investment. 10.ZENOTECH LAB ( 85 ) : Buy delivery of this stock at current levels with SL of Rs 78 for the target of Rs 99 – 106 level. It is very good for long term position also. with highly Volatile Trend, In Downside support levels are at 4545 - 4501 Levels; below 4501 level, other support levels are at 4473 4404 levels. I am positive for next week above 4730 Level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only...and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...!!! look but that’s the way we tend to be, in this market. NIFTY FO – 4592 as on 19.03.2008 NIFTY FO has resistance at 4634 – 4678 Level ; above which other resistance levels are at 4706 - 4730 Level Regarding long term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If NIFTY crosses 4730 Level, again then the upper side target is quite high and it may touch 5170 Level before APRIL – 2008...!!! Here is given Some GLODEN STOCKS for the week FUTURE-OPITION STARS 1. 2. 3· 4· 5· ACC : ( 770 ) : Buy at Rs 761 with SL of RS 752 for the target of RS 791 – 808 level below Rs.752 it can show further downfall. WIPRO : ( 375 ) : Buy at Rs 364 With SL of RS 367 for the target of RS 393 – 404 level below Rs. 367 it can show further downfall up to Rs 350. CIPLA : ( 202 ) : Buy at Rs 197 with SL of RS 193 for the target of RS 217 – 220 levels below Rs. 193 it can show further downfall up to RS 178. DLF LTD : ( 620 ) : Buy at Rs 607 with SL of RS 590 for the target of RS 649 – 660 levels below Rs. 590 it can show further downfall up to Rs. 567. TCS LTD : ( 808 ) : Buy at Rs 790 with SL of RS 781 for the target of RS 828 – 838 levels below Rs. 781 it can show further downfall. SMALL SAVING SCRIPTS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. TORRENT POWER : ( 98 ) : Buy at Rs 82 with SL of RS 78 for the target of RS. 119 – 125 . PRIME TEXT : ( 48 ) : It is suggested to buy with SL of RS 44 for the target of RS. 55 – 62 below at RS 38 it can slip up to RS 33 – 30 level. Crossover above Rs. 70 level will take the stock to Rs. 77. KOSAIN IND : ( 33 ) : Buy at Rs 30 with SL of RS 27 for the target of Rs. 38 – 45 levels below Rs. 27 it can show further downfall. SPICE TELE : ( 25 ) : Buy at Rs 56 with SL of RS 52 for the target of Rs 78 – 83 levels . It is very good for long term position also. GVK POWER : ( 33 ) : Buy at Rs 30 with SL of RS 27 for the target of Rs 39 – 43 levels below Rs. 27 it can show further fall. BUY NIFTY FO @ 4545 SL 4440 TGT @ 5170 BEFORE APRIL 2008
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