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• Vol. I • Issue :18 • Date : 29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008 • Editor : Devlaxmi Joshi • Asso.Editor : Narendra Joshi • Mobile:9825065387 •
•• Address : 115/991, Nirmal Apartment, Telephone Exchange Road, Naranpura, Ahmedabad -380013 • Phone : 27451449 ••
INVESTMENT
GUIDE
ANTARYAMI
13
EAGLE’S
EYE
PARAS
GHELANI
4
BULLET
NARENDRA
NAYNANI
3
ANY GOOD NEWS MAY TAKE MARKET HAS NOT YET
THE MARKET NORTHWARD BOTTOMED OUT
It was terrible week for the
market. Amid of several negative factors like soaring crude
oil process, rising inflation and
dilemma in nuke-deal and continuous selling, by FII drag the
Sensex and Nifty at their 10
months low level. Sensex lost
move than 750 points in the
week ended 17
June
2008.
Sensex was close
below the psychological figure
14000. Nifty lost
merely
210
points and closed
at 4136 in the week ended 27
June 2008.
Inflation soar to 11p42 %,
highest in 13 year and Government will try their best to tame
the the inflation. Moreover
RBI has increased the CRR and
Reporate by 50 bps. Further
our Finance Minister hinted
that some more time inflation
will survive at double digit figure.
Secondly, crude oil prices hovering near to historically high
at $ 142 per barrel. Opee
President forecast that crude oil
prices may go up to 170
per barrel in 3-4 months.
Higher crude prices may ad
Continue on ...5
It appears that the market is
feeding on bad news. Every
day we have some bad news
or the other which drags
down the prices. From the
top of more than
21,000
to bel o w
14000
indicater
that the
index
has lost one third of
its value.
More disturbing, most of the
individual stocks have lost
more than half their peak
value, and yet, no one is
able to say that this is the
bottom. Every day each of
us can identify some stocks
which sould appear to be
good bargain buys.
Y e t
w h e n
You see
the next
day, the
price of
the same
s tock
would
be lower the weak economic fundamentals and
the global crude crisis indicate that we have not yer
reached the bottom, and we
should not try to find it at
around the current levels.
COVER YOUR SHORTS AT Weekly Wrape :week ended 20-06-2008
may take place on survival of ter making low of 4119. If we
Dear Friends,
NIFTY–4000 – 28/06/2008.
the UPA government. We shall look at 52 week low, Nifty
Many people ask me why am I
so Bearish? Do you have any
short positions in the market?
My answer to all of them is that
I am neither Bear nor Bull… I
AM THE LION. I write what I
feel is correct and hope the readers benefit from it.
The Bear attack was ferocious
and relentless and there was no
respite for the Bulls in the past
week. The formations suggest
that the Bears will now create
maximum panic on Monday
and Tuesday and then pause for
a while. This will lead to a short
term bounce and possibly formation of short term bottom.
Our
Motto:
Keep
it
simple….Give Quality & not
Quantity…. and always Stick
to our Views….no Double
S i d e d
talks…because
we are the -SHOBHA
LION & the Email :
LION always has the [email protected]
final word. SHAHENSHAH OF FINANCIAL JUNGLE
Market has taken support at
13800 and 4093 as predicted
by us in the last week’s article.
This is not to suggest any sort of
up trend, but it only suggests
Continue on ...10
As we said long back in our re- start preparing shopping list formed low of 4002. At present
peated articles that world mar- now and grab the opportunity Nifty is very near to 52 week
ket is on down trend, we are oblow. On weekly chart
serving blood bath in Email : [email protected]
Nifty has support in the
most of the indices. Fiband
of
3864nally US market re3881.4002 being 52
sponded to Global turweek low is sentimenmoil
tal and crucial support.
If this level is broken,
And started falling afheavy selling can not be
ter very very long time.
over ruled.
Corrections are vital for
every market. After corto build fresh portfolio with spe- Sensex View:
rection fresh traders and buyers cific strategy for one to two
take entry into the market. In our years. We are identifying some Sensex closed at 13802 after hitlast but last issue of The Eco- of sectors and stocks therein ting low of 13760 on Friday. On
nomic Revolution ( Gujarati), with investment strategy at ev- week to week basis, sensex lost
we had given tentative figures ery decline. We hope this port- 769 points ( 5.28 % ) and on
month to month basis Sensex
as to what can be the bottom.
folio may appreciate 50 to 100 lost huge 2723 points which
In current issue of Eco. Rev, we % in one to two years.
being 16.48 %. Sensex also is
have discussed at length. We feel Nifty View:
trading near 52 week low of
that now final stage of correc13731. This is also psychologition is ready to hit. Major upset Nifty closed 4136 on Friday afContinue on ...2
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
2
Sensex loosing more 769 points during the week
Both the indices slumped as a political rift over nuclear deal, soaring crude oil prices and high
inflation weighed heavily on the market sentiment. The BSE Sensex fell to the lowest level in 13months while the S&P CNX Nifty touched a 10-month low. Sensex and Nifty are very near to 52 low
being13731 and 4002 respy. If we look ate week to week data,Sensex declined 769.07 points or
5.28% to 13,802.22 in the week ended Friday, 27 June 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 210.90 points
or 4.85% to 4136.65 in the week.
The BSE Mid-Cap index declined 473.68 points or 7.85% to 5,558.75. The BSE Small-Cap index
slumped 459.59 points or 6.21% to 6,938.07. The market suffered major losses on 23 June 2008 to
settle at 10-month low on sustained selling pressure throughout the day. The 30-share BSE Sensex
lost 277.97 points or 1.91% at 14,293.32. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 81.15 points
or 1.87% to 4266.40. Equities extended losses for the fifth straight day on 24 June 2008 with the
barometer index BSE Sensex falling below the psychologically important 14,000 mark for the first
time in 10 months since late August 2007. The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 186.74 points or
1.31% at 14,106.58. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty slumped 75.30 points or 1.76% at 4,191.10.
25 June was good for stock market, wherein, equities staged a solid rebound after touching fresh
calendar 2008 lows in early trade. The initial jolt was caused by the Reserve Bank of India’s move to
hike the key lending rate. However, short covering ahead of the expiry of June 2008 derivatives
contracts tomorrow, 26 June 2008, provided a foundation for the recovery. The 30-share BSE Sensex
gained 113.49 points or 0.80% at 14,220.07. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty surged 61.55 points
or 1.47% at 4,252.65. While 26th June added further gains due to, short covering ahead of expiry of
June 2008 derivatives contracts helped market move higher for the second straight session. However, the market underwent choppy swings throughout the day. The 30-share BSE Sensex gained
201.75 points or 1.42% at 14,421.82. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was up 63.20 points or
1.49% at 4,315.85.
We had witnessed further fall in Asia and US markets., sharp spurt in crude oil prices and political
uncertainty due to Indo-US nuclear deal rattled bourses on 27 June 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex
slumped 619.60 points or 4.30% to 13,802.22. Intense selling pulled it lower to day¢s low of
13,760.78, which is its lowest level in more than 13 months. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty
tanked 179.20 points or 4.15% at 4,136.65.
India¢s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance
Industries (RIL) rose 4.07% to Rs 2181.90 in the week. RIL will start pumping 25 million standard
cubic metres a day (mmscmd) of natural gas by September from its D-6 field in the Krishna Godavari
basin, the oil ministry said on 25 June 2008. It said in a statement that the output would be raised to
40 mmscmd by March 2009.
HDFC Bank declined 7.31% to Rs 1018.65. The bank announced a hike in its benchmark prime
lending rate by 25 basis points to 15.25%. The bank made this announcement after trading hours on
Friday, 20 June 2007. Wipro 6.65% to Rs 442.60. Wipro has reportedly raised close to Rs 1,400 crore
(35 billion Yen) through external commercial borrowings (ECBs). The company has been pursuing
an aggressive acquisition strategy over the last few years and it concluded two major acquisitions in
the year ended March 2008 including Unza and Infocrossing for a cumulative value of close to $900
million. As of 31 March 2008, Wipro had cash and bank balance Rs 3,927 crore.
.
India¢s largest bank in terms of net profit State Bank of India fell 7.15% to Rs 1158.30 after the staterun bank raised its benchmark prime lending rate by 50 basis points to 12.75% with effect from 27
June 2008. The bank made this announcement during trading hours on 26 June 2007.
India¢s largest private sector steel manufacturer in terms of sales Tata Steel fell 6.54% to Rs 726.75.
The company reported 195.64% jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 12349.98 crore on 415.04%
spurt in total income to Rs 132110.09 crore in the year ended March 2008 over the year ended March
2007. The results are non comparable due to merger Corus Group with Tata Steel.
India¢s largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank plunged 11.10% at Rs 653.10. It hit a 52week low of Rs 643 on 27 June 2008.
India¢s largest engineering and construction firm by revenue Larsen & Toubro fell 11.57% at Rs
2267.15.
India¢s second largest software exporter by sales Infosys Technologies fell 6.57% at Rs 1707.60.
India¢s largest state-run oil exploration company Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) fell 4.23%
to Rs 830.15. Net profit of ONGC fell 2% to Rs 2627.10 on a 26% increase in sales to Rs 15626.07
crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 march 2007. The company announced the results during trading
hours on 25 June 2007.
The wholesale price index rose 11.42% in 12 months to 14 June 2008, above the previous week’s
annual rise of 11.05%, government data released on Friday, 27 June 2008, showed. Inflation for the
year through 19 April 2008 was revised upwards to 8.23% from 7.57%.
RBI, after market hours on 24 June 2008, raised its key lending rate viz. the repo rate by 50 basis
points to 8.5% with immediate effect, its highest since March 2002 and the second hike this month.
The RBI had earlier on 11 June 2008, raised the repo rate, by 25 basis points to 8%.
The RBI also increased the cash reserve ratio, the ratio of deposits banks must keep with it, to 8.75%
from 8.25% in two 25-basis-point stages on 5 July 2008 and 19 July 2008.
Political uncertainty weighed heavily on the market due to confrontation between the government
and Left parties over the Indo-US nuclear deal. The UPA-Left coordination committee on Indo-US
nuclear deal on 25 June 2008 cided to meet again later. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the
committee completed its discussions on all aspects of the nuclear deal. The next meeting of the
committee will finalise its findings.
The Left parties have already made it clear that they will withdraw their support to the government
if it moves ahead with the nuclear deal. Left parties are opposing the deal saying it undermines
India’s independent foreign policy and nuclear weapons program.
The finance ministry on 25 June 2008, said the direct tax receipts were up 43.45% to Rs 49411 crore
until 21 June 2008, on the back of a higher advance tax payments by corporates. Collection from
corporate tax were Rs 30655 crore, up 39.81% from a year-ago, while income tax receipts were up
49.8% to Rs 18756 crore, it said in a statement.
Consideraing clash between Congress party and Left front on Nuke deal, we advise traders to take
minimum exposures and watch the situations carefully. We do not deny one sharp fall if political
stability elarm in coming days.
Narendra Joshi
Regards
[Assocoate Editor]
KOTAK BAZAR
Conti. from ....1
cal support and panic can be
seen if broken. However, if these
levels are not broken, we can
expect some technical pull back
rally.
We advise investors to wait and
watch the sentiments of the market which are grossly driven of
some of the matters like Inflation, Crude Oil prices and political stability. If we get chance
of panic, we shall start adding
blue chip in fresh building of
portfolio for little long time.
In Long term, we see good hope
of appreciation in Tata steel and
Telco. Some reality stocks also
have tanked during last few
weeks.
Asian Stocks Slump on Wall
Street Losses
Asian stocks fell across the board
Friday, after Wall Street tumbled
overnight on a confluence of a
weaker dollar, surging oil prices
and a plunge in banking stocks.
Shares in China posted sharp
declines. The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 5.3%
at 2748.43, its lowest closing
level since Feb. 9 last year,
when it settled at 2730.39. The
Shenzhen Composite Index fell
6.0% to 795.86. Analysts said
rising crude oil prices will
prompt China’s government to
further increase domestic gasoline and electricity fees, increasing the costs of Chinese companies.
China tightly controls domestic
energy and raw material prices
to keep...
US markets finished lower for
second consecutive day led by
surging oil prices and a fresh
round of banking troubles.
US markets end lower, Dow
Jones average pushed to the
brink of a bear market while
crude hits record high of 142
dollars.
The Dow fell 106.91, or 0.93
percent, to 11,346.51. The
Nasdaq composite index fell
5.74, or 0.25 percent, to
2,315.63 and Standard & Poor’s
500 index fell 4.77, or 0.37 percent, to 1,278.38.
NEW YORK - Wall Street ended
a depressing week with another
big loss on Friday, with the Dow
Jones industrials falling more
than 100 points amid ever-escalating worries about high oil
prices and fallout from the credit
crisis. The major indexes are all
down more than 3 percent for the
week.
The Dow has fallen nearly 460
points in the last two sessions
and reached its lowest point
since September 2006.
Investors again contended Friday with a seemingly relentless
stream of troubling news about
the financial sector. Moody’s
Investors Service said it is reviewing investment bank Morgan Stanley for a possible downgrade. There were also more reports that Merrill Lynch & Co.
might have to write off nearly
$6 billion of risky mortgagebacked debt.
In addition to anxiety about the
financials, the market watched
oil’s march higher — the price
of crude rose to a new record of
$142.99 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Wall Street remains concerned
that higher commodity prices
will slam consumers with not
only elevated costs for energy
and food, but also for other
goods if cash-strapped companies decide to pass along the rising costs.
“People are trading with a lot of
emotion,” said Alexander Paris,
an economist and market analyst
for
Chicago-based
Barrington Research. “I think
the market is trying to make a
bottom, but the question is will
it hold there or just crash
through. It feels just like the top
of the technology bubble in
2000, you know there’s something wrong but it is hard to time
it.”
Investors got little solace from
economic data released on Friday. The Commerce Department
said spending rose 0.8 percent
in May, as taxpayers started receiving their stimulus checks.
The increase was higher than
the 0.7 percent economists predicted. The report also said personal incomes surged 1.9 percent — significantly more than
anticipated. After taxes, incomes
surged 5.7 percent, the largest
amount in 33 years.
The Dow fell 106.91, or 0.93
percent, to 11,346.51, compounding Thursday’s 358-point
skid. The blue chip index is
down 19.9 percent from its
record high close of 14,164.53
in October, and is on the verge
of the 20 percent pullback that
is considered the threshold for a
bear market.
Broader stock indicators also
closed lower. The Standard &
Poor’s 500 index fell 4.77, or
0.37 percent, to 1,278.38. The
S&P, the index most closely
watched by market professionals, is down 18.3 percent from
Continue on ...10
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
3
MARKET MAY FIND
BOTTAM
Bse Sensex(13802.22)
and Nifty(4136.65) closed
approximately 5.2% and
4.8%down each last week
.Higher inflation at 11.42
v/s 11.05 brought some
worries.Market will take
cue from political
Narendra Naynani
developments.Support for
(M)9898162770
Sensex is 13500 and for [email protected]
Nifty 3950 Resistance
level of for Sensex 14300
and 4300 for Nifty.Markets Option Of July Month Strike
are in oversold zone and se- Price [email protected]
lective buying will be visible
Premium Received by selling
at every decline.
call=1675*7.25==12143.75
Nifty put-call ratio is 1.05 Rs.
and highest open interest is
build up at Nifty 4100 put Maximum Profit- 180option.Cairn ,Tatasteel and 1 7 3 . 5 5 = 6 . 4 5 *
Chambal Fertilizer added sig- 1675=10803.75+12143.75=
22,947.5
nificant open interest.
BULLET
Strategy for Future & Option
players
Maximum Loss=Unlimited
Trading Idea
1)RPL(173.55)-Lot Size1675
1)JKCEMENT(138.75)Buy
this stock in decline and trade..
Buy
One
Lot
of
[email protected] and sell Call
2MINDTREE(436) Buy this
stock in decline and trade.
TREND OF MAJOR STOCKS
STOCK
TREND NO OF
DAYS
Weekly Monthly
Trend
Trend
ICICIBANK.NS
INFOSYSTC.NS
ITC.NS
MARUTI.NS
RELIANCE.NS
SAIL.NS
SATYAMCOM.NS
SBIN.NS
TATASTEEL.NS
TCS.NS
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bulllish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bulllish
Neutra
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
Falling
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
l1
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Flat!
Useful Technical Figures for major stocks
MFI=MONEY FLOW INDEX
RSI=RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX
ADX=DIRECTIONAL MOMEMNTUM INDEX
STOCK
ICICIBANK.NS
INFOSYSTC.NS
ITC.NS
MARUTI.NS
RELIANCE.NS
SAIL.NS
SATYAMCOM.NS
SBIN.NS
TATASTEEL.NS
TCS.NS
CLOSE
652.15
1705.45
183.7
642.75
2182.65
144.2
439.5
1161.2
765
865.5
MFI-21
44.68
57.86
42.45
38.55
36.26
37.64
56.25
33.29
48.47
58.44
RSI-14
30.49
38.47
31.97
31.16
42.9
38.29
37.85
28.85
41.45
41.39
ADX-14
20.51
18.61
24.74
19.93
29.92
24.1
20.62
50.69
29.6
25.52
Sumit bilgaiyan is technical &
fundamental analyst. He has vast experience in
the stock market last 6 years.He is regularly
writing article and daily columns in Leading
News papers in Gujarat. He also does PORTFOLIO ADVISORY SERVICES.
E-mail: [email protected]
Mobile-+91 09755261070
last week Sensex graph trend
Taking cues from weak gloabal Nifty Future Jul with a weekly
market in last week we see a target of 4080. In down side
negative trend
in market.
Continuously
increase in inflation are
also give the
bad effect for
market for
coming week,
Sensex
again expected
some volatile
trend in market for coming week, market strong support is at 4060, if
is high volatile. We expected this is break then next support
some volatile coming in next is at 4040. Keep a stop loss of
week. For coming week 4120 expected volatile trend
Sensex important support is see in market in next week.
at 14050 weekly basis. Sensex
resistance is at 14000-14210- stock for this week
14450, above this next imporContainer corp —buy at curtant resistance is at 14505. If
rent levels with a upper target
Sensex closes above this level
of 810 it has important supthen next target for Sensex is
port is at 750 below this level
at 15640 on weekly basis.
next support is at 735 if it break
Sensex support is at 13680the level of 735 then we see
13500-13420, below this level
some fall in container corp
next support is at 13200 for
take stoploss of 760
weekly basis. Nifty resistance
is 4160-4210-4280. Above this Niraj cem—
level next resistance is at 4350
on weekly basis, nifty support looking explosive on chart buy
is at 4080-4020-3950, below at current levels at 227 it has
this level next support is at strong support is at 205 keep3910. For next week STRAT- ing a stoploss of 208 on weekly
EGY IN F & O, once can sell basis take a target of 238 above
240 it will zoom upto 248.
Ashiana hou—
this stock are
looking good for
coming
week
there is upside
potentional till
around at 76 and
down side strong
support 65 keep a
tight stoploss of 66
on weekly basis
take a target of 75.
Soft BPO– buy at current levels with upper target 290 it has
important support at 260 below this level expected some
bearish trend take a stoploss of
262
f&o stock weekly
Cairn fut —buy at 275 with
a target of 280 to 282 with a
tight stoploss 268 below 265
expected some bearish trend in
cairn.
HCC fut—sell at 84 with a
stoploss of 88 with a target of
80 below this next target is 78
in coming days
BOI fut –buy at lower levels
considering 218 with a upper
target of 228 with a stoploss
of 210
Shyam Star Gems Ltd’s quarterly profit rose 14615.09%,
to acquire 50% stake in Dubai based Thamina Diamonds
international DMCC.uy the stock with target of 170-175 n
very short term.
Recommendation: Buy
Code: 526365
Cmp: 127
Short term target: 170-175
Established in 1992, this
company’s quarterly net
profit ending march 31,
2008, rose 14615.09% to
Rs. 7.7 crore, whereas the
net sales increased 14.48
times to rise at Rs. 32.5 crore
.The board of directors also
considered 12% dividend
for the year ending 31
march 2008.
Shyam Star Gems Ltd., a
progressive company engaged in manufacturing
and exports of diamond
studded jewellery, is taking over 50% controlling
stake in Dubai based
Thamina diamonds inter- This company is presently
national, DMCC.
in diamond polishing and
manufacturing business,
and planning to enhance its
share in diamond, gold
and silver jewellery in the
international and domestic
markets, by opening a chin
of jeweler stores across India and overseas, moreover the management proposed to enter into new
ventures by diversifying its
business activities to hospital, education., charitable
and real estate business.
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
4
Last Week clearly told u that
if index breaks 14343 then
it may touch 14036…& if
nifty future breaks 4309
then it may touch
4204…..See what happened… Index had breaks
14343
and
touched
14036….nifty future had breaks 4309 &
touched 4204……..We have also told
that at lower level near 14036 and 4204
buying can come………see what happened ??...... Index has flared to 14449.84
and nifty future has flared to 4318.30…..
IF BREAKS 13730 THEN 13509, 13283 & ABOVE
14107 IT MAY TOUCH 14221, 14294..
NIFTY FUT IF BREAKS 4060 THEN 4024, 3990,
3954, ABOVE 4172 IT MAY TOUCH 4246, 4277
tional prices, Local High Inflation rate,
All foreign markets had tumbled, unstable political environment of India
leads Indian markets to heavy
bloodbath………..In coming week also
these above reasons may play strong role
again. Any positive news will leads to
short covering and any negative news
will leads to more blood bath….
In early week, Our stock future recommendations has performed well… Tata
tea, ONGC, Mphasis, Sterling Bio, JSW
Steel and suzlong had achieved its targets and then declined to lower levels……..
So take care of your investment and hard
earned money……….Play according to
Due to Sudden surge in Crude’s interna-
your capacity only… If u r and long term
investor look for good,sound and fundamentally strong shares in this panic environment. But buy in phased manner
only……….like 20% right now then
later on…….See no one had predicted
Closing Price
13802.22
Support
13509
Stoploss
13283
Target 1
14107
Target 2
14221
Target
14294
Nifty Future’s Prediction for Week (30.06.08 To 04.07.08)
Index
Nifty
Closing Price
4078.55
Support
3990
Stoploss
3954
Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
4172
4246
4277
Nifty Future’s Hot Scripts for Week (30.06.08 To 04.07.08)
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
Company
Name
Reliance
Cairn
Sesa Goa
RPL
ABAN
Closing
Price
2181.45
274.50
3391.60
173.85
2297.20
Stoploss
Target 1
Target 2 Target 3
2137
265
3354
166
2240
2114
260
3332
161
2222
2209
281
3427
178
3048
2245
288
3478
185
3097
When index was on fireeeeee….every
Continue on ...5
Weekly Trading’s Hot Scripts for Week (30.06.08 To 04.07.08)
Sr.No.
1
2
3
4
5
Company Name
Voltas
Shree Cement
Glaxo
Ster Tech
Amtek Auto
Closing Price
128.15
614.75
1124.55
195.85
243.40
Stoploss
122
593
1098
187
231
Target 1
117
587
1077
182
226
Target 2
134
630
1143
201
253
Target 3
140
654
1168
209
259
For Delivery Based Investment Hot Midcaps/
Smallcaps for Week (30.06.08 To 04.07.08)
BSE Index Prediction for Week (30.06.08 To 04.07.08)
Index
BSE
top and bottom so decide one index level
and then see the level of a particular
scripts and then buy only………
Sr.
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Company
Name
Geometric
Refex refri
Sasken
Hind.Oil
UTV Soft
Aventis
Pennar Ind.
GE Cap
Mount Everest
Glenmark Ph
ING Vaisya
ICSA
Gwalior Chem
Cont.Corp
Geodesic
Bse
Code
532312
532884
532663
500186
532619
500674
513228
500398
531096
532296
531807
531524
532764
531344
503699
Closing
Price
52.60
225.80
145.45
129.05
754.95
752.00
36.25
70.25
168.00
626.35
225.00
315.55
117.00
794.00
165.00
Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
48.30
217.60
139.80
122.85
741.40
743.00
33.80
66.00
161.00
612.50
219.75
305.40
110.90
769.00
161.00
56
232
150
137
763
759
39
74
174
638
230
323
124
809
170
61
237
155
146
780
771
43
78
179
655
235
330
129
824
175
MARKET IS VERY MUCH VOLATILE….BE STOCK SPECIFIC ONLY AT LOWER LEVELS…
1) MNM ( 510.60 ) :- In this scrip
near term support at 504 and buy with
the stop loss of 497 on the upper
side first target is 516 then Rs. 521
- 527 to 533.
2) ULTRATEC ( 568.05 ):- In this
scrip near term support at 562 and
buy with the stop loss of 556 on the
upper side first target is 572 then Rs.
577 - 582 to 588 .
buy with the stop loss of 511 on the
upper side first target is 527 then Rs.
533 - 538 to 542.
upper side first target is 457 then Rs.
462 - 466 to 472.
6) UTV (754.95 ) :- In this scrip
near term support at 747 and buy with
the stop loss of 743 on
the upper side first tar-
8) ADANI. ( 634.40 ) :- In this scrip
near term support at 629 and buy with
the stop loss of 625 on the upper side
first target is 638 then Rs. 643 650 to 658.
9) AUROBINDO PHARMA ( 278.25
) :- In this scrip near term support at
273 and buy with the stop loss of 268
on the upper side first target is 282
then Rs. 287 - 291 to 296.
3) BEL ( 1028.30) :- In this scrip
near term support at 1022 and buy
with the stop loss of 1015 on the upper side first target is 1033 then Rs.
1038 - 1044 to 1052.
4) GRASHIM ( 1944.60 ) :- In this
scrip near term support at 1936 and
buy with the stop loss of 1924 on the
upper side first target is 1950 then
Rs. 1957 - 1964 to 1970.
5) RANBAXY ( 523.05 ) :- In this
scrip near term support at 518 and
get is 758 then Rs. 763
775.
- 769 to
7) BAJAJ AUTO .( 453.75 ) :- In
this scrip near term support at 448 and
buy with the stop loss of 442 on the
10) IFLEX. ( 1380.80 ) :- In this
scrip near term support at 1372 and
buy with the stop loss of 1368 on the
upper side first target is 1386 then Rs.
1394 - 1399 to 1405.
11) ABAN ( 2992.95 ) :- In this
scrip near term support at 2985 and
buy with the stop loss of 2976 on the
upper side first target is 2997 then
Rs. 3005
- 3013 to 3022.
12) TATA POWER ( 1058.05 ) :In this scrip near term support at 1053
and buy with the stop loss of 1045 on
the upper side first target is 1063 then
Rs. 1070 - 1078 to 1084.
13) SIEMENS ( 410.50 ) :- In this
scrip near term support at 404 and buy
with the stop loss of 399 on the upper
side first target is 314 then Rs. 319 423 to 432.
14) IOC. ( 341.60 ) :- In this scrip
near term support at 335 and buy with
the stop loss of 331 on the upper side
first target is 344 then Rs. 350
356 to 364.
15) IVRCL INFRA. ( 316.40 ) :- In
this scrip near term support at 312
and buy with the stop loss of 308 on
the upper side first target is 320 then
Rs. 325 - 332 to 336.
Continue on ....2
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
5
SENSEX 14500 OR 15300
WHEN??
Stock Market-As per Astro-technical calculations this week is
represents by figure 25 and as
per finical numerology figure
25 is ruled by Ketu and there
will be combinations of Mars
with Saturn in Leo and sun with
Venus
in
Mithun rashi.
All these combinations and
conjunctions
may lead to
mixed result in
Indian stock
market. Of Course it
is very difficult to predict when
Indian stock market at lowest
levels of year 2008. My advance
predictions about bull run in
crude oil has proved 100% correct Friday 27th June 2008 crude
oil has cross US$ 143 per barrel
in International market. As per
term investors to invest in selected front line stocks like RIL,
RPL,
REL
CAPITAL,
ALLHABAD BANK, SBI,
BHRATI AIRTEL , DIVIS LABS
, POWER GRID, NTPC all these
stocks may buy in small batch
with the view of 2-3 months .
My sincere advice to keep this
article cutting with investment
levels of said stocks for 3
months and match after 2-3
months. Hope fully handsome
return on investment is expected. Remember all above re-
Nifty Level
Nifty support levels: (1) 4088
Nifty Resistance levels (1) 4188
(2) 4050 (3) 3933
(2) 4244 (3) 4366
my predictions there was bounce
back in world stock market from
middle of the week but sudden
nose dip was seen on Friday and
around 600 points have been
wipe off and created 52 weeks
low in Indian stock market.
Worst was banking and real state
sector. All our recommended
stocks RIL, REL CAPITAL, RPL
CENTUARY TEX, BOMBAY
DYING were among gainers list
till Thursday. All gain was shed
on Friday storm. Now big questions Are we still under bears
grip or some relief at lowest levels? Financial astrology says
worst is all most over now this is
time for investment buying , of
course day traders may maintain
little distance unless market
show some stability . but This is
a golden opportunity for Mid
ferred stock need to buy in small
batch for making good average.
MARKET SUMMERY
Conti. from ...1
prices may go up to 170 per barrel in 3-4 months. Higher crude
prices may adversely affect our
economy as we import 70 percent of our requirement.
market. Here we suggest only to
buy good fundamental stock
which are available at 50 to 70
percent discount in which
growth is intact at every decline.
Otherwise, you may sit sideline
and only observe the market
trend till this bear speculative
game is over.
At present the valuation are attractive but it works only in the
medium to long term. Now the
sentiment is worst and bear hammering continue amid of several
negative factors dampen the
As per Astro-calculations this
week may provide mix result in
Indian stock market. Investors
are advised not to take too much
risk for creating short positions
in Indian stock market. Hopefully this would be last week of
bears batting. Financial astrology says from second week of
July 2008 onward bulls may
come back in Indian stock market. As per astro technical investment buying is strongly advised between sensex levels
13600 to 14000 levels. Indian
stock market sensex may
bounce back again and it can
kiss 14500 to 15300 levels
around second week of August
2008. I know at this junctions
EAFLE’S EYE
Conti. from ...4
second person and analyst had
suggested
to
buy
all most all the market expert,
news papers, TV channels are
expecting sensex further down
around 800 to 1200 points or
sensex 12000 and below but
today on 27th June 2008 during
one TV Interviews on BTV I had
made this advance predictions (
Sensex 14500 or 15300) in
month of August 2008. You may
keep cutting of this article for
record. If you remember that we
have given early warning
through our article about Heavy
profit booking in Indian stock
market in month of May 2008
(second week) .which has been
proved correct.
Commodities
Crude Oil: our advance predictions one side upward movement in crude oil has been
proved correct. Previous week
crude oil has created new all
time high in world future market. Hope our readers must
have enjoyed our advance predictions. This week crude oil is
expected to show profit booking at highest levels. Investors
may book profit in long positions in crude oil. Since stars
indicating very heavy volatility and profit booking is just
head during week
Profit or Loss for You
This week may bring fortune for
Mesh and Varshik rashi, Singh
Rashi may also be benefited
during this week. Now stars may
start favoring them in trading as
well as at demotic fronts
All above predictions are base
on financial astrology; You
should go through personnel
horoscope also before taking
any decisions base on any forecast. Writer does not hold any
above said stocks
only………Where all goes now
????? See when there is more
analyst then investor ?? what
will goin to happened???........
Anyway u have to be smart
enough now in this kind of environment (Always) to take investment decisions…. U r the ultimate decision maket that
whose reco’s u have to see and
follow……Be a long term
player…..All
the
best
wishes……
The Only Greens: Crude –>
Inflation –> Interest Rates
Have you ever heard of a bear
Amit Gupta
hug in wrestling? It is when one
(amit6543@
contestant locks both arms
around the other from the front
gmail.com).
in order to make the opponent
Comments
fall backward. Well that is exand feedback
actly what the Indian markets
have been experiencing in the
welcome.
recent past, only that the contestants here are the US markets The author is a CA, CFA (USA)
and crude, the opponent is the and FRM certified professional
based in Singapore and workIndia economy.
ing with a leading UK based InThe stock markets have shed a vestment Bank. He is associated
third since the beginning of this with CapitalVia as a part time
year during the first 6 months. analyst. The views expressed
Inflation has risen to 11.42%
herein are that of the author
outperforming everybody’s expectations. Crude Oil has peaked only and he or CapitalVia do
at $141 and rising further. RBI not bear any responsibility for
is frantically raising interest any investment or other decirates in an attempt to curb infla- sions taken based on the article.
tion. Credit crisis is hitting the the refinery will create the largcommon office goer hard in the est refining site in the world. He
wrong part of the body.
has ascertained that gas sales
will be at a wellhead price
Crude Oil is breaking new barri- equivalent to $25.2 per barrel of
ers every other day. The major crude oil. India being one of the
economies recently in their G8 largest consumers of oil among
meeting in Japan blamed the de- developing economies, this will
veloping countries which definitely a downward pressure
subsidise fuel prices to ease the on oil prices.
burden of poor, which keeps up
demand for oil and thus keeps What will happen in the mean
up prices. OPEC has no inten- time if Obama also wins the US
tions of increasing the output presidential elections? He is
despite increased pressure on de- completely against outsourcing.
mand. Whatever might be the This will be a boon to creating
reason, the fact remains that oil new jobs in US which will lead
price hikes is fuelling the other to higher disposable incomes,
greens – inflation & interest and higher consumption.
rates.
Obama is against the war in Iraq,
which will further help contain
One of the most dreadful things the price of crude. Also with the
to happen to the world is world quickly adapting innovastagflation – which is a combi- tive alternatives to oil consumpnation high inflation with stag- tion, oil prices will eventually
nant economic growth and ris- come down. OPEC will have to
ing unemployment. US had ex- eventually increase the producperienced the weakest jobs data tion as everybody would want
in the past 22 years earlier this to sell when crude is at its peak.
month. The situation isn’t much I wouldn’t be too surprised to
better anywhere else in the see oil settling at $100 by the
world. This combined with high end of the next 2 years.
inflation creates a vicious circle,
which is worsening the eco- Once the inflation is brought unnomic state of the world. Due to der control, the government can
high inflation, it has become dif- focus on optimizing interest
ficult for the central authorities rates in the economy. The secto control the interest rate – tors mainly hit by high interest
which has made trading on rates rates are the realty sectors and
extremely difficult.
the highly leveraged ones that
have a high debt on their balWhere is the world economy ance sheets. Once the interest
headed in such a scenario? How rates are brought under control,
will the greens turn into red and we will see the markets bouncreds into green? Or will they? ing back to its fundamental
The basic rule of market says value during 2009. It’s a diffithat whatever goes up has to cult stage now for the world
come down. This is what we ex- economy, but as mentioned earpect to see in the coming years. lier, whatever goes down has to
Dec 2008 should be landmark come up. Things will change –
month. That is when the Reli- and for the better. Get ready to
ance refinery at Jamnagar will face the boom year 2010; it’s just
commence its operations. Ac- round the corner. (to be contincording to Mr. Mukesh Ambani ued)
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
6
Price of equity-offered at Rs. 90 soared to Rs. 570,
After listing In Dull and Lull Primary Market,
SEL manufacturing company
Buy best Wealth Creators Share at every decline
for huge profits
SEL Manufacturing company (SMCL) which is a vertically integrated textiles player and is involved in the Manufacturing and exporting of cotton yard, combed yarn, Knitted fabrics and knitted garment and come out with a IPO of 31.38 lakhs equity shares of face
value of Rs. 10 each with a price band of Rs. 80 to Rs. 90 per share
during July 07 has given. Top returns in less than one year to the investors.
In a lull and dull primary market where valuations remained
always high projected on profit of future years, investors have lose their
many as most of the which came in the capital market with a long has
gone below price band
and quoted at substantially
discount.
But in the case of
SELMCL the story is totally different. At a time
where the primary market
is totally out of focus from
the investors sight and the
secondary market i.e.
stock market has lost
about 28.59 % or more
than 6000 point since the
beginning of the year
2008 and sensex khas
gone down from its highest level of mor than
21,200 points to below 15000 points and in such a critical situation or
a bear phase, this company SELMEL has given for most return to the
investor which one cannot imagin.
A share of Rs. 90 allotted to the investor has been appreciated
by more than six times-for currently the share is having around Rs.
570.75 very few IPO has given such a top most return in the past 12
months.
This is at a time when only the market is not down but other
textile scripts in this category have been also beaten down like Bombay
Rayon, Gokuldas exports Nahar Spinning, Arvind Mill, Bombay dyeing, Abhishek Industries etc.
The main reason for the fall in the share prices these companies
is that garment players those in the rupee-dollar trade have faced trouble.
But who have export business with European markets have fared better
and have the SEL manufacturing has scored. Moreover the company
has extra benefit of being a Integrated player which helps in keeping
the production cost down subsequently compare to its peers.
According to Mr. Neeraj Saluja, a Dynamic and Young, 40 years
old Managing Dirctor of SEL manufacturing said that the company has
a healthy mix of 50-50 of exports and domestic market sales tomorrow.
Moreover Exports billing of the company is nearly 80% in the euro
zone which off rates the impact of a strong rupee.
st
For the year ended 31 March, 2008, SEL has shown excellent
performance in its financial results. Revenue of the company have gone
up from Rs. 203 crores to Rs. 40 crores- almost doubled and net profits
have served by 93 % to Rs. 43.9 crores. EPS Searing per share) gone up
Rs. 29.48 and a return of net worth is 20.06 %
This excellent performance is due to expansion, backward
integration and acquisitions, said By Mr. Neeraj, the eldest son of the
64 year old Mr. Ram Saluja, a first generation entrepreneur and pro-
Performance Indicators (in Cr)
particulars
Sales Turnover
Other InComa
Total Income
Profit before
Depreciation & Tax
Depreciation
ProfitBefore Tex
Tex
Profit After Tex
Earning per share (Rs)
Book Value
Mar 2007
187.75
14.41
182.92
33.54
Mar 2006 Mar 2005
119.13 62.66
13.63
4.57
67.82
42.08
20.80
4.29
Mar 2004 Mar 2003
59.94
61.36
5.03
7.54
70.38
72.18
10.86
39.76
5.04
28.50
4.90
23.60
24.03
134.99
2.78
18.02
3.38
14.91
14.91
110.82
0.18
10.68
-0.03
10.71
563.68
5236.84
particulars
Type
Net Sales
other Income
Total Income
Total
Expenditure
Openrating
Profit
Interest
Gross Profit
Depreciation
Tax
Porfit After
Tex
Mar 2007
4Qtr
126.00
17.90
143.90
27.86
Dec 2007
3Qtr
99.87
7.53
107.40
23.93
Sep 2007
2Qtr
74.22
6.73
80.95
15.45
Jun 2007
1Qtr
57.21
3.18
60.39
11.22
27.86
23.93
15.45
11.22
4.63
23.23
2.32
6.14
14.77
5.41
18.52
2.95
1.95
13.62
1.66
13.79
2.04
1.35
10.40
2.40
8.82
1.79
0.96
6.07
1.05
3.24
-0.09
3.33
166.50
4626.50
0.20
39.56
0.02
39.54
2081.05
4673.16
Quality Results
moter of the R. S. Saluja group,
which started modestly inthe 1969
which are manufacturing & hosiery
products and knitted fabrics for the
local market in very small qualities.
Although Ram saran Saluja is new
non-executive chairman of the
BORD OF DIRCTORS
Chairman
Managing Director
Whole-time Director
Additional Director
Director
Company Secretary
Director
Additional Director
Ram Saran Saluja
Neeraj Saluja
Dhiraj Saluja
Sanjiv Garg
Ashwani Kumar
Rahul Kapoor
Amar Naraang
Navneet Gupta
company, but his vast experience
of 40 years is becoming very helpful in providing serologic direction to his two sons, Neeraj and
Dhiraj.
Kay Financials
Year to March
(Rs.crore)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Equity Capital
EPS (Rs)
Market cap/sales
EV/EBITDA
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
2008
2009
2010
357.3
43.1
15.2
29.5
17.5
2.2
23.1
16.0
20.1
611.6
131.1
22.9
32.1
16.1
1.9
13.7
13.7
20.3
1096.4
257.7
22.9
37.7
13.7
1.1
7.9
15.4
16.6
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
7
The business model of SEL is different from other companies. Where as other garments manufacturers exports to riche markets across the world like us and Europe,
which SEL are largely dependents on two markets Russia and UAE. This serology
has worked well for the company since its enjoy higher margin by exporting to
these locations.
For the future trends and prospects let us look to the history of SMCL and textile
industry.
Ludhiana based SEL MCL a R.S. Saluja group vertically integrated textile company engaged in the manufacture and export of combed as well as corded yarn,
knitted fabrics and garments is the out come of merges and acquisition of almost
half a dozen small companies. The company has production facilities at Ludhiana
in Punjab and at Baddi in Himachal Pradesh, a tax free zone.
Its spinning, knitting and processing dyeing facilities are located in Ludhiana
has garment making facilities at Ludhiana as well as Baddi.
it
The company has entered in to fast growth zone since 2005 while the company
sells its yarn both in the domestic and international markets its is exporting garments in to export markets, the company[s distinct business model is a plus points
on accounts its totally integrated business model from spinning yarn to knitting
processing and further to garmenting the company is in a position to cut down the
cost of production and
also cut down the
lead time in processing export orders.
The business models
allows the company
to reduce costs on
transportation
packaging etc. as the
goods are in the
same premises - bring
down government
taxes like VAT, CST,
etc. maintain quality (uninterrupted
supply of raw materials in required quantity) and reduce
turnaround time.
In the past the company was only a
garment company till
2005 hence the performance was aversely affected as the margins came under several pressures, but
when the company became an integrated teatime conglomerate the profit margins
came gone up thereafter.
For example the profit margins which were 5.18
percent in 2005 shot kup to 11.8
percent last year. More over the vertical integrated business model has sharpened
the competitive edge of the company.
For the company and management textiles is a inherent family business as the
founder and chairman of the company, Mr. Ramsaran Saluja has started textile
business over three and a half decades ago which provides adequate experience in
this large industry with a big players.
How the company became successful in the government export business? In the
garment sector, the key to success lies in the capability to execute large and multiple orders on time and these orders need utmost attention and immense operational expertise which can manage bit labor class, complex serving capabilities,
production,l planning and facilities and this was developed buy the company and
management due to experience of his sector in the large number of years.
Moreover, most of company’s critical functions, such as operations, supply chain,
finance and accounts and human resources are networked through a computer linkage and this has helped the company to cut down its cost of operations and production, resulted into a high efficiency with a reduction in wastages.
To meet the increasing demand in the domestic market and booming experts market, the company under book an ambitious expansion programmed involving a
capita expenditure of Rs. 185 crores. This expansion programmed includes expansion of capacities in spinning, knitting and garment manufacturing. This expansion plas has been completed now. The number of spinners has gone up to 25200,
the knitting capacity enhanced by 3000
tones and garment manufacturing. This
expansion plan has been completed now. The numbers of spinners have gone up to
25200, the knitting capacity enhanced by 3000 tones and garment manufacturing
capacity will be raised by 1.5 million pieces p.a. To part
finance this ambitious
expansion programmed, the company came out with an IPO of over 4 million shares
of Rs. 10 each a price of Rs. 90 at the end of July 2007.
In addition to these expansion plans the company has also lined up further capacity
expansion programme, estimated to cost about Rs. 410 crores, which will enhance
the addition of Rs. 75600 spindles.
Share Price movement
Year
High(Rs.) Low(Rs.)
Close(Rs.) P/EHigh
P/ELow
P/ELow
May2008
Apr-2008
Mar-2008
Feb-2008
Ian-2008
515
459.20
335
317
236.70
380.05
320
247.10
195.20
117.90
462.25
399.35
323.85
302.85
236.05
23.87
19.82
14.97
11.41
7.32
29.60
25.57
20.74
19.39
15.11
MidCap
(Rs.in cr)
703.54
607.81
492.90
460.94
359.27
Dec-2007
Nov-2007
Oct-2007
Sep-2007
Aug-2007
129.00
116.10
123.95
187.35
247.50
103.25
78.30
76.65
107.00
80.00
7.59
7.43
5.54
6.92
9.92
180.51
176.70
131.73
164.38
235.76
35.28
32.50
23.49
21.25
17.83
Share Price 0f 2007
118.60
116.10
86.55
108.00
154.90
9.25
7.43
8.37
12.57
20.39
6.38
4.77
4.87
6.79
2.87
Company’s entry into Technical Textiles will boost margins.
SEL Manufacturing, fastest growing integrated player in the textile industry. The profit and sales turnover the company has gone up by three times in
last two years. Now the company is also entering into technical textiles which
have a very lucrative market and very few companies are in this line.
Technical textiles have 107 million dollar market in 2005 expected to
become 125 billion global markets in 2010. Technical textiles are the textile
materials, manufacturer for functional properties and these products are very high
specialized. These value added products have high realization process which
improves the profit margin, moreover technical textiles are used mostly in variety
of industries and sectors which include & automobiles, ship building, hospitals,
dams, roads, highways, canals, defense, construction, sports agriculture, building
materials, soil etc.
SEL is also installing a technical textile unit with an installed capacity
of 32400 tones p.a. at a cost of Rs. 612 crores. This includes expansion of tery
towel and cap line power project also. The project is likely to start commercial
functioning before the end of 2009. Technical textile being a specialized project,
this division will fetch high realization which ultimately improves the margins.
Cap line Power Production will allow the company saving in power cost, when
the 20 MW Power Plant goes into generation.
The Government is likely to launch technology mission on Technical
textiles Export market and upgrade skill and to help increase capacity. Moreover
to identify the problems of this industry, the government is likely to create development council for Technical Textiles. Now let us took at the Bright prospectors
of Textile Industry. The Indian Textile and garment industry is making repeat
sliders, due to abundant suppy of Raw Materials and skilled and cheap about.
Along with Exports, demand for textiles increasing very fast due to mall culture
changing lifestyles, rising
disposable income and lowering in India.
The textile industry occupies a unique position in the Indian Economy
as it contributes significantly, to the industrial production employment generation and about 14 % to the industrial production and about 4 % to the GDP. It
provides divert employment to about 35 million people including women. The
Indian Textile Industry is complex and varied. This industry uses natural fibercotton, Jute, Silk and Wool as well as Synthetic man-made Fibers, Polyesters,
viscose nylon, acrylic and their multiple brands.
Post all expansions the manufucturing capacities of the
company would be as follows
Sagment
Readymade
Garments
Fabric Kitting
Fabric Dyeing
Yarn Dyeing
Spinning
Terry Towel
Captive
Power Plant
Technical
Textiles
Open End
Spinning
Capacities
Under
Proposed
Post
Existing
Implementation Expanszion Expanszion
10.50mn pce pa 10.50 mn pce pa
7050 TPA
8000 TPA
3300 TPA
74256
Spindles
(17240 TPA)
-
75600
Spindles
(20195 TPA)
12600 TPA
20 MW
201600
Spindles
(52255 TPA)
18000 TPA
60MW80MW
7050 TPA
8000 TPA
3300 TPA
149856
Spindles
(89690 TPA)
30600 TPA
-
-
32400 TPA
-
32400 TPA
-
6480 TPA
-
6480 TPA
Textiles a sunrise sector once again
The textile industry has grown and the noticeable feature in this growth
process has been the installation of large number of open and rotors in the 1990
and the selling up
of 100% export oriented units in the spinning sector. The
Indian Textiles industry is large and diverse, unique for its coverage of the entire
garment of activities ranging from production of raw materials to providing the
consumers high value added products. Such as fabrics and garments. The key
segment of Indian Textile industry are divided into Fibre, Yarn, Fabrics and made
ups.
The share of Indian Textile Industry occupies a significant position in
global of cottons and cellulose Fiber/Yarn. Indian accounts for about 3.6 % of the
world trade in textiles and clothing and is ranked 6” supplier. Indian is one of the
few countries that has presence across the entire value chain of the textiles and
clothing business starting from fiber production, spinning, weaving/knitting processing to garments and made ups.
Now SEL Manufacturing company manufacturer and exporter of Yarn, Fabrics,
and garments, is set to join the big league by carrying out an ambitious growth
plan to take advantage of its integrated production facilities and opportunities
thrown up by the international textiles market in the Post MFA era.
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
8
The Week was full with fear and terror.
Sensex sheds 769 pointsFriday, 27 June 2008.
Sensex declined 769.07 points (5.28%)
to 13,802.22 in week ended The S&P
Nifty lost 210.90 points (4.85%) to
4136.65
in
week.
The BSE Mid-Cap index declined
473.68 points (7.85%) to 5,558.75. The
BSE Small-Cap index slumped 459.59
points (6.21%) to 6,938.07.
23 June 2008
Market suffered major losses to settle at
10-month low on sustained selling pressure throughout the day. BSE Sensex
lost 277.97 points (1.91%) at 14,293.32.
Broader based S&P Nifty was down
81.15 points (1.87%) to 4266.40.
24 June 2008
Equities extended losses for the fifth
straight day, BSE Sensex falling below
the psychologically important 14,000
mark for the first time in 10 months
since late August 2007. BSE Sensex
was down 186.74 points (1.31%) at
14,106.58. Broader based Nifty
slumped 75.30 points (1.76%) at
4,191.10.
25 June 2008
Equities staged a solid rebound after
touching fresh calendar 2008 lows in
early trade. The initial jolt was caused
by the Reserve Bank of India’s move to
hike the key-lending rate. However,
short covering ahead of the expiry of
June 2008 derivatives contracts tomorrow, 26 June 2008, provided a foundation for the recovery. BSE Sensex
gained 113.49 points (0.80%) at
14,220.07. Broader based Nifty surged
61.55 points (1.47%) at 4,252.65.
26 June 2008
Short covering ahead of expiry of June
2008 derivatives contracts helped market move higher for the second straight
session. However, the market underwent
choppy swings throughout the day. BSE
Sensex gained 201.75 points (1.42%)
at 14,421.82. Broader based Nifty was
up 63.20 points (1.49%) at 4,315.85.
27 June 2008
a setback to stocks in Asia and US, sharp
spurt in crude oil prices and political
uncertainty due to Indo-US nuclear deal
BSE Sensex slumped 619.60 points
(4.30%) to 13,802.22. Intense selling
pulled it lower to day’s low of
13,760.78, which is its lowest level in
more than 13 months. Nifty tanked
179.20 points (4.15%) at 4,136.65.
RELIANCE SUPPORTED MARKET: -
India’s largest private sector company in
terms of market capitalization and oil
refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose
4.07% to Rs 2181.90 in the week. RIL
will start pumping 25 million standard
cubic meters a day (mmscmd) of natural
gas by September from its D-6 field in
the Krishna Godavari basin, the oil ministry said on 25 June 2008. It said in a
statement that the output would be raised
to 40 mmscmd by March 2009.
BANK JOLLT MARKET: India’s second largest private sector bank
in terms of net profit HDFC Bank declined 7.31% to Rs 1018.65. The bank
announced a hike in its benchmark
prime-lending rate by 25 basis points to
15.25%. The bank made this announcement after trading hours on Friday.
WIPRO: - GOOD NEWS CAN NOT
SPURT
Wipro, the country’s third largest software services exporter fell 6.65% to Rs
442.60. Wipro has reportedly raised close
to Rs 1,400 crore (35 billion Yen)
through external commercial borrowings
(ECBs). The company has been pursuing an aggressive acquisition strategy
over the last few years and it concluded
two major acquisitions in the year ended
March 2008 including Unza and
Infocrossing for a cumulative value of
close to $900 million. As of 31 March
2008, Wipro had cash and bank balance
Rs 3,927 crore.
Reliance Communications (RCom), the
country’s second largest telecom services
provider in terms of market capitalization lost 3.61% to Rs 473.55. RCom’s
proposed merger deal with South Africa
based global operator, MTN is reportedly
expected to close by first week of July
2008.
1158.30 after the state-run bank raised
its benchmark prime-lending rate by 50
basis points to 12.75% with effect from
27 June 2008. The bank made this announcement during trading hours on 26
June 2007.
India’s largest private sector steel manufacturer in terms of sales Tata Steel fell
6.54% to Rs 726.75. The company reported 195.64%
jump in consolidated net profit to
Rs 12349.98 crore
on 415.04% spurt
in total income to
Rs 132110.09 crore
in the year ended
March 2008 over
the year ended
March 2007. The
results are noncomparable due to merger Corus Group
with Tata Steel.
India’s largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank plunged 11.10% at Rs
653.10. It hit a 52-week low of Rs 643 on
27 June 2008.
India’s largest engineering and construction firm by revenue Larsen & Toubro
fell 11.57% at Rs 2267.15.
India’s second largest software exporter
by sales Infosys Technologies fell 6.57%
at Rs 1707.60.
India’s largest state-run oil exploration
company Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
(ONGC) fell 4.23% to Rs 830.15. Net
profit of ONGC fell 2% to Rs 2627.10 on
a 26% increase in sales to Rs 15626.07
crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 march
2007. The company announced the results during trading hours on 25 June
2007.
government data released on Friday, 27
June 2008, showed. Inflation for the year
through 19 April 2008 was revised upwards to 8.23% from 7.57%.
RBI, after market hours on 24 June 2008,
raised its key lending rate viz. the repo
rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% with immediate effect, its highest since March
2002 and the second
hike this month. The
RBI had earlier on 11
June 2008, raised the
repo rate, by 25 basis
points to 8%.
The RBI also increased the cash reserve ratio, the ratio
of deposits banks
must keep with it, to
8.75% from 8.25% in
two 25-basis-point stages on 5 July 2008
and 19 July 2008.
Political uncertainty weighed heavily on
the market due to confrontation between
the government and Left parties over the
Indo-US nuclear deal. The UPA-Left coordination committee on Indo-US
nuclear deal on 25 June 2008. Decided
to meet again later. Foreign Minister
Pranab Mukherjee said the committee
completed its discussions on all aspects
of the nuclear deal. The next meeting of
the committee will finalize its findings.
The Left parties have already made it
clear that they will withdraw their support to the government if it moves ahead
with the nuclear deal. Left parties are
opposing the deal saying it undermines
India’s independent foreign policy and
nuclear weapons program.
GOOD SHOW BY CORPORATE:The finance ministry on 25 June 2008,
said the direct tax receipts were up
43.45% to Rs 49411 crore until 21 June
The wholesale price index rose 11.42%
India’s leading pharma company in terms in 12 months to 14 June 2008, above the
Continue on ...8
of sales Ranbaxy Laboratories fell 3.61% previous weeks annual rise of 11.05%,
to Rs 523.05 after
receiving tentative approval from
US Food and Drug
Administration
for manufacturing
and marketing
SCHEME 1: F&O and CASH
SCHEME 2: CASH ONLY
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hydrochloride
Period
Fees
you
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you
your
tablets in 450 milRs. Sav.Rs. saving %
Rs. Sav.Rs. saving %
ligram strength.
MARVELLOUS SMS CLUB MEMBERSHIP
INTRADAY, BTST & POSITONAL SAM CALLS
India’s largest
bank in terms of
net profit State
Bank of India fell
7.15% to Rs
1 MONTH
6 MONTH
12 MONTH
30000
120000
180000
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CONTACT : LALIT SHAH- 098250 56396
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
MARVELOUS RESERCH
Conti. from ...1
2008, on the back of a higher advance
tax payments by corporates. Collection
from corporate tax were Rs 30655 crore,
up 39.81% from a year-ago, while income tax receipts were up 49.8% to Rs
18756 crore, it said in a statement.
In Next Week
Market may remain weak,
we see blue lining from
Wednesday. Market will
stable
The outlook for the market remains
weak for the near term as steaming inflation, record high global crude oil
prices and high interest rates threaten
the pace of growth in the world’s second fastest expanding major economy,
driving investors to the sideline or to
exit
The wholesale price index rose 11.42%
in 12 months to 14 June 2008, above
the previous week’s annual rise of
11.05%, government data released on
Friday, 27 June 2008, showed. Inflation
for the year through 19 April 2008 was
revised upwards to 8.23% from 7.57%.
BANNIYA’S STEP’S: To tame inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 24 June
2008, raised its key lending rate viz.
the repo rate by 50 basis points to 8.5%
with immediate effect, its highest since
March 2002 and the second hike this
month. The RBI had earlier on 11 June
2008, raised the repo rate, by 25 basis
points to 8%.
The RBI also increased the cash reserve
ratio, the ratio of deposits banks must
keep with it, to 8.75% from 8.25% in
two 25-basis-point stages on 5 July
2008 and 19 July 2008.
Foreign investors, who usually set the
trend for the market, have been withdrawing relentlessly this year. FIIs
dumped shares worth Rs 9604.4 crore
in the month of June 2008 (till 27 June
2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008
totaled Rs 25225.30 crore (till 27 June
2008).
Political factors will also weigh on the
market due to the ongoing confrontation between the government and Left
parties over the Indo-US nuclear deal.
The UPA-Left co-ordination committee
on Indo-US nuclear deal on 25 June
2008 decided to meet again later. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee said
the committee completed its discussions on all aspects of the nuclear deal.
The next meeting of the committee will
9
finalise its findings.
The Left parties have already made it
clear that they will withdraw their support to the government if it moves ahead
with the nuclear deal. Left parties are
opposing the deal saying it undermines
India’s independent foreign policy and
nuclear weapons program.
With inflation expected to remain in
double-digits in the coming months, it
would be suicidal for the ruling coalition to precipitate a political crisis and
go for early elections, which are due by
May next year.
WED IT WILL TEST KEY SUPPORT
LEVEL OF 12500 AND MAY GIVE
GOOD BOUNCE FROM THE LEVEL.
MONDAY WILL PHASE POLITICLE
IFFECT TECHNICALY MARKET
HEAVY OVERSOLD ON WEEKLY
CHART FRESH SHORT SELLING NOT
ADVISEABLE
NIFTY:
NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 3725
AROUND AND WILL TEST LEVEL
THEN SHARP PULL BACK RALLY
WILL BE THERE.
BULL’S WILL BACK AFTER GENERAL ELECTION’S
BUY WITH TARGET OF 38-40 IN
SHORT TERM
McLeod RUSSEL: WE SEE DARK HOURS OF TOMORROW IN THIS COMPANY BUY WITH
STOP LOSS OF RUPEES 66/- WITH
TARGET OF CIRCIUT ON MONDAY.
MIDIUM TERM TGT IS 155-160 LONG
TERM 350 BOTTOM SUPPORT 53
LOTOUS CHOCOLATE: IN THIS BAD PHASE OF MARKET
LAST THREE WEEK CLOSE POSITIVE
AND HAVE SUPPORT AT 12.50-13.50
target’s short term 21-23, medium 38-40,
long term 150-160.
Crude hit a record of $141.71 on Friday,
27 June 2008 after Opec President, GOOD PICK’S FOR THIS DAY’S ARE
Crude will cool down
Chakib Khelil predicted that the oil
ASSAM
COMPANY:
prices
could rise
TRADING LEVEL’S FOR MONDAY ONLY DT.30TH JUNE.
to $150CLOSE
SUP-3
SUP-2
SUP-1
BUY/SELL TRADEAT RESIS-1
RESIS-2
170 a bar- SCRIP
ACC
579.3
546.3
561.15
570.25
SELL
581.1
594.2
609.1
rel in the
81.25
74.85
77.4
79.35
SELL
81.9
83.85
86.4
next 3-4 ACL
BHARTIARTL
746.8
691.25 705
725.9
BUY
739.6
760.55
774.25
m o n t h s . BHEL
1380.45 1312.9 1337.4 1358.9
BUY
1383.4
1404.9
1429.4
R i s i n g CIPLA
210.5
204.85 206.95 208.7
SELL
210.75
212.55
214.65
crude oil DLF
424.2
393.35 406.65 415.45
SELL
428.75
437.55
450.85
remains a GRASIM
1944.6
1834.7 1882.8 1913.7
SELL
1961.8
1992.7
2040.8
m a j o r HDFC
2052.7
1828.8 1928.5 1990.6
SELL
2090.3
2152.4
2252.1
1018.65 954.8
974.1
996.4
BUY
1015.7
1038
1057.3
worry as HDFCBANK
139.35
130.2
134.3
136.8
SELL
140.9
143.4
147.5
India im- HINDALCO
HUL
208.5
199.35
201.95
205.2
BUY
207.8
211.05
213.65
ports close
ICICIBANK
653.1
600.4
621.7
637.4
SELL
658.7
674.4
695.7
to 70% of
INFOSYS
1707.6
1605.2 1650.6 1679.1
SELL
1724.5
1753
1798.4
its crude ITC
183.95
176.15 179.6
181.75
SELL
185.2
187.35
190.8
r e q u i r e - JAIPRA
142.65
131
136.3
139.45
SELL
144.75
147.9
153.2
m e n t s . LNT
2267.15 2119.1 2165.8 2216.5
BUY
2263.2
2313.9
2360.6
TECHNI- MARUTI
645
605
621
633
SELL
649
661
677
C A L MNM
510.6
462.1
483.55 497.1
SELL
518.55
532.1
553.55
151.05
144.6
146.7
148.85
BUY
150.95
153.1
155.2
V I E W NTPC
ONGC
830.15
770.95
794.7
812.45
SELL
836.2
853.95
877.7
F O R
RANBAXY
523.05
499.9
508.9
516
SELL
525
532.1
541.1
N E X T
RCOM
473.55
419.1
434.6
454.05
BUY
469.55
489
504.5
WEEK:SENSEX:B E TWEEN
M O N DAY TO
RELINFRA
RIL
SATYAM
SBI
TATAMOTORS
TATASTL
TCS
WIPRO
886.5
2181.9
439.8
1158.3
449.1
726.75
865.2
442.6
NSE WEEKLY CLOSE 4136.65 AS ON
27TH JUNE 2008
815.6
2020.2
414.1
1101
407.8
641.2
830.8
402.75
845.8
2078.6
424.65
1125.1
426.45
681.2
840.4
419.65
866.15
2130.2
432.25
1141.7
437.75
703.96
852.8
431.15
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
BUY
SELL
896.35
2188.6
442.8
1165.8
456.4
743.95
862.4
448.05
916.7
2240.2
450.4
1182.4
467.7
766.7
874.8
459.55
946.9
2298.6
460.95
1206.5
486.35
806.7
884.4
476.45
RESIS-3
618.15
88.35
795.2
1450.9
216.4
459.65
2071.7
2314.2
1079.6
150
216.9
711.4
1826.9
192.95
156.35
2411.3
689
567.1
157.35
895.45
548.2
523.95
967.25
2350.2
468.55
1223.1
497.65
829.45
896.8
487.95
BSE WEEKLY CLOSE 13802.22 AS ON
27TH JUNE 2008
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
10
Lion’s Roar Conti. from ...1
that the markets are likely to take a short
term break from one sided downside to a
stage of sideways consolidation. But
only for a while and then again revert
back to the old trend.
SENSEX REASONABLE VALUATION BAND - 11000 TO 12000.
In a widely expected move the RBI raised
CRR and Repo rates by 50 bps on Tuesday night. PLRs will now rise above
16.75 per cent on average, making borrowings even more expensive for Real
Estate and Capital Intensive projects.
Industrial profit margins already under
pressure
will further reduce and
earnings
growth
will drop
down to
about 9
per cent
for FY09
giving a
Sensex
earnings projection of Rs 900. Giving the
Sensex companies a P/E of 12, the Sensex
should sink to about 11000 to 12000 by
December 2008. This is because one
tends to assign lower valuations to the
market when the growth rate subsides.
This leads to a contraction of P/Es.
ARE THE BANKING STOCKS
CHEAP?
No, if you consider the following details.
Public Sector Banks are trading at 14
times FY09 earnings while Private Banks
are trading at 20 times FY09 earnings.
Valuations at 2 times the book value also
look expensive because the book value
looks itself looks stretched, with downside risks on earnings per share and return on capital employed. Banks outperform only when GDP expands and Business Cycle is positive. Both Positives
seen over the past 5 years are now reversing. Worse, all Banks are about to be hit
by higher rates, non performing loans,
higher provisions and lower growth. Rising Inflation, Declining liquidity and rising interest rates will ensure that Banks
show a sustained period of under performance. P/E Valuations likely to contract
to single digits, and Price to Book multiple closer to 1 to 1.4 times. Key risks to
earnings remain for high P/E private
banks like ICICI, HDFC Bank, and Axis
Bank. All Banks and Real Estate stocks
can lose 50 per cent of their market value
from here.
MARKET TECHNICALS.
Market continued to suffer the
Bear onslaught as predicted by
us last week. Both Sensex and
Nifty have formed a Black
Marubuzo on the daily charts
on Friday. Both have formed
Opening Black Marubuzo on
the weekly charts. The Sensex
has completed the evening star
pattern on Friday. The Candlestick formations suggest further downside to the
market starting from Monday.
KOTAK BAZAR Conti. from ....2
its October high.
If you recollect last time we had predicted that the Sensex and Nifty have
support at 13887 and 4135 respectively
as per the Gann Theory. Both Sensex and
Nifty have taken support at these levels
for the week. I feel, the Sensex may find
short term support in the range of 1350013222 and the Nifty may find support at
4004-3988. Possibly these support might
hold and we might form an intermediate
bottom for the time being.
The Nasdaq composite index fell 5.74,
or 0.25 percent, to 2,315.63.
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS.
There is also likely fear on the Street
about upcoming second-quarter earnings
reports and companies outlooks for the
rest of the year. Oracle Corp.’s warning
of difficult times ahead contributed to
Thursday’s huge drop.
Derivative Analysis suggests that lot of
short positions
have
been
rolled over to
the July series.
The Nifty discount of more
than 60 points
suggests that
majority of the
market participants are on
the short side
and are expecting the market to come down drastically. Lot of Put writing is happening at
the Nifty Strike of 4000. The above data
suggest that the market will likely find
support around 4000 and which is what
our technical study too confirms. What
we can conclude is, as and when the market touches support at 4000 and if that
holds, then there will be a bout of short
covering and this will lead the market up
in the short term. You may want to call it
a short term bounce, but please note that
this may be significant from a trader’s
point of view. So please cover or close
out your short positions at 4000 and if
you have the conviction participate in
the bounce back. But all this is from the
trading point of view as in the long and
medium term, we are still in the Bear
market.
LAST WEEKS HAMMER STOCKS.
IVR PRIME RECOMMENDED TO
SHORT AT 201, REACHED 177!!!
LIC HOUSING RECOMMENDED TO
SHORT AT 277 REACHED 262!!!
If both stocks you had shorted 1000
quantity, then the profits would have
been …24+15= Rs. 39000. What more
you ask for???
WATCH OUT FOR:
SELL TATA CHEMICALS 291 SL 301
TGT 278-265-256.
The market was pounded this week not
only by a resurgence of bad news about
the financial sector and $140 oil, but by
harbingers of problems to come in other
parts of the economy. Poor outlooks for
high-tech companies and the automotive
sector reminded Wall Street that the
troubles have the potential to become
widespread..
For the week, the Dow gave up 4.19 percent, the S&P shed 3 percent and the
Nasdaq fell 3.76 percent. With one trading day left in the second quarter, the
Dow is down 7.47 percent, the S&P 500
is off 3.35 percent and the Nasdaq is up
1.60 percent.
Year-to-date statistics show how badly
the market has suffered from the credit
crisis and the impact of soaring oil: The
Dow is down 14.46 percent, the S&P 500
is down 12.94 percent and the Nasdaq is
down 12.69 percent.
Even if the economic numbers coming
out soon — including the government’s
June employment report, to be issued on
Thursday — look better, the market
likely won’t be reassured, because the
impact of higher oil is still not known.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 3 to 2 Friday on the New
York Stock Exchange, where volume
came to 1.4 billion shares.
Bond prices edged higher. The yield on
the benchmark 10-year Treasury note,
which tends to move opposite its price,
was at 3.96 percent, down from 4.03 percent late Thursday. The dollar was lower
against other major currencies, while gold
prices rose.
In other economic news, the University
of Michigan’s June index of consumer
sentiment came in at 56.4, a bit lower
than its reading in May and slightly below the average analyst estimate.
“The problem is that there’s not one,
single worry,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of
Johnson Ellington Advisors. He pointed
to high gas prices, still-tight credit market conditions, and the contracting housing market. “If you’re looking for problems that face investors, that face the U.S.
economy, they’re everywhere.”
Also Friday, a Lehman Brothers analyst
lifted his prediction of Merrill Lynch’s
asset markdowns in the second quarter.
His write-down estimate rose to $5.4 billion from $3 billion. On Thursday, a
Goldman Sachs analyst forecast a $4.2
billion write-down at Merrill and a nearly
$9 billion write-down at Citigroup Inc.
Merrill shares fell 35 cents to $32.70, and
Citigroup shares fell 42 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $17.25.
Morgan Stanley dropped 12 cents to
$36.71 after Moody’s said the investment
bank’s “financial performance and risk
management has been inconsistent” since
credit markets began last year. The company will focus its review on Morgan
Stanley’s ability to control risk and generate profit over the next one to two years
— a period Moody’s expects will be challenging for investment banks.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 0.28, or 0.04 percent, to
698.14.
Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average
fell 2.01 percent after Wall Street’s tumble
Thursday. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.21
percent, Germany’s DAX index fell 0.58
percent, and France’s CAC-40 lost 0.65
percent.
US ECONOMY UPDATES: The U.S.
economy grew slightly more in the first
quarter than previously estimated and
home sales rose in May, but concerns are
rising about potential threats to growth
in coming months.
“For the balance of this year, it looks like
the economy is trapped in a subpar
growth pace but not a recession,” said
Stephen Stanley, chief economist with
RBS Greenwich Capital in Stamford,
Conn.
BUZZING STOCK Conti. from ....12
ther improving technology and infrastructure as well as in setting up appropriate processes. This would augur well
for Praj.
Nearly 60% of the world's transport fuel
growth will come from diesel, which can
easily be replaced by biodiesel. This
opens up vistas of opportunity in the
biodiesel industry, especially in US and
Europe regions, which are now pursuing
biodiesel earnestly. Praj is planning to
capitalize on its presence on these regions.
Sales and NP for year ended 07 - 08 were
701.6 Cr & 148.1 Cr. Sales and NP for
latest Quarter 212.6 Cr & 58.7 Cr.
On YOY basis NP has increased by 71 %
& based on quarter latest its increased by
117%
Dividend during year ended 06 - 07 was
99%
The scrip is best stock for long term. Can
double from here onwards.
ATTENTION
The material contained in the Economic
Revolution is based on Fundamental and
Technical analysis & other scientific methods and also the knowledge and belief of
author. Error can not to be rulled out. The
information given is of advisory nature only.
The Editor, the Publisher and the Author
does not take any consequences arising
out of it. All rights reserved. Reproducing to
whole or in part of any matter including
featurs without permision is not permitted.
Letgal jurisdiction is Ahmedabad only.
The material given in the Economic
Revolution is the views of author only, it not
means that Editor is agree with it, so Editor, the Publisher and the printer is not
resposible for the contains in writers article.
Devlaxmi Joshi
Editor,
The Economic Revolution.
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
11
India’s Birla Cotsyn to raise 1.44 bln rupees through IPO
Birla Cotsyn (India), a company of
the Yash Birla Group, engaged in textile manufacturing, plans to enter the
capital market with an IPO of Rs
144.18 crores. The company has fixed
at price band of Rs 15 to Rs 18 per
equity share of face value of Rs 10
each. The price band is 1.5 times of
the face value and the cap price is 1.8
times of the face value. The company
intends to raise Rs 144.18 crores at
the cap price of the price band. The
100% Book Build Issue opens on
home textiles. In Delhi, 100% staple
and P/V yarn , used in shoe Lining fabric and fancy decorative fabrics is marketed. Birla was the first to introduce
P/V yarn in the Towel segment of the
Solapur market. Birla Cotsyn sells its
products through reputed agents with
strong net work in India and in overseas markets like Yeman and Turkey.
Synthetic, blended Ring Spun Yarns for In order to ensure success in their exusage in Woven and Knitted Fabrics, pansion plans, the initial promoter of
Textiles, Blankets, Towels, Upholstery, Birla Cotsyn (India) Limited Yash Birla
Furnishings, Curtains, Bed group had entered in a 50:50 Joint venBIRLA COTSYN INDIA LTD sheets, Made-up and Industrial ture with the P.B.Bhardwaj Group,
Fabrics. Birla has excellent sales This JV will enable both the partners
Issue Open: June 30, 2008 to July 04, 2008
network in India and abroad for to combine their resources and experIssue Type: 100% Book Built Issue . (Initial
Grey and Dyed Solid Griddles, tise and carry on the business of manuPublic Offer IPO)
Issue Size
: equity -144.18 Crores
Fancy, Industrial Knitting and facturing, marketing and distribution
Issue Size: Rs.
Sewing Ring Spun Yarns in vari- of the products, which will enable their
Post issue paidup capital:ous blends and count range from presence felt, in India as well as in inFace value of the shar: Rs.10
NE 8s to 60s.
ternational markets.
Offer price : Rs. 15-18
Minimum Investment : 350 Share in in mul
Birla has got wide network
tiples of 350 share
through out India in major tex- In the first phase, the Rs. 315 core inMaximum Subscription : 5250 Shares,
tile centers namely Hilary, tegrated textile complex will manufacRs. 1,00,000
Mumbai,
Surat, ture open end, rotor based cotton yarn
Promotors : P B Bharadwaj,Yashovardhan Indore,
with an installed capacity of 1728 roBirla,Ploytex Ltd,Nirved Traders Pvt Ltd, A h e m e d a b a d ,
Shearson Invt & Trd Co Pvt Ltd, Yash Society, Solapur, Kanpur
Birla Indus. Grp Charity Trust,Sunanda Medical
Issue allocation
Meerut, Delhi,
Institute
Institutional
HNI
Retail
Promoter
A
m
r
i
t
s
a
r
,
Registrar of the Issue :Adroit Corporate Ser19,498,889 20,361,111
Ludhiana,.Paniput, 27,855,555 8,356,667
vices Pvt Ltd
Lead ManagersAllbank Finance Limited
Ichalkaranji,
Listing: BSE, NSE
Bhagalpur,
Check drown “Escrow Account - BCIL Public
Calcutta etc. Company exports its tors. It will have 114 looms to weave
Issue - R” For Retail Bidders
products to Yeman and Turkey. fabric.
Grading : This issue has been graded by
CARE and has been assigned
In Surat , Bhagalpur and Calcutta
The state government has conferred the
the “IPO Grade 3” which
Birla is the leading Supplier of
‘mega project status’ to the project.
indicates
average
100% Viscose fancy yarn.like
fundamental
Neps, Slubs, and Slub Neps. In Having acquired 100 acres of land at
Website: http://www.birlacotsyn.com
Kanpur and Meerat company is MIDC, Malkapur, we are expanding
selling
P/V dyed fancy yarn like current capacities from 21000 spindles
Monday June 30, 2008 and closes on
Vardhan
Khadi and silky base. In to 36,000 spindles. With a proposed
Friday 04 July, 2008
Bhilwara
and
Indore Birla is selling 1728 rotors and 114 looms, our capacINTRODUCTION OF THE COMPANY
Incorporated
in
1941,
Birla Cotsyn
(India) Limited
promoted by
Yash Birla
group is engaged in cotton Ginning,
Pressing &
Oil expelity is bound to rise to 50,000 meters
ling. After the acquisition of Assets
mainly
suiting
yarn,
P/V
grey
and
dyed
per day.
of Khamgaon Syntex (I) Ltd at
poly
propelene
yarn
used
in
filter
fabMIDC, company is also into manuric. In Amritsar, Ludhiana, and In Phase II, the company has set up an
facture of Synthetic yarn.
Open End rotor based Cotton yarn
The Company produces high quality Paniput, 100% staple yarn is being sold
which is used in Furnishing Fabrics and manufacturing facility having capacity
of 1,728 rotors, which
BIRLA COTSYN (INDIA) LTD’S FINANCIAL INFORMATION
has since become opParticulars
For the year/period ended (Rs. in lacs)
erational. In this Phase
the Company is also
30-Jun-07 31-Mar-07
31-Mar-06 31-Mar-05 31-Mar-04
setting up a weaving
Total Income
180,495,606 561,488,023 40,434,366 32,521,498 35,498,049
unit of Cotton Grey
Profit After Tax (PAT) 7,928,634 25,697,403
2,716,032 546,514
1,198,652
Fabric with 114 Looms.
Moving forward with a fully integrated manufacturing process, Birla
Cotsyn plans to manufacture finished
fabric by setting up a Dyeing and Processing facility with an installed capacity of 50,000 meters per day in
Phase III.
Birla Cotsyn is having its units located
at the following places:
Sheagaon Road, Khamgaon, Dist.
Buldhana, Maharashtra
MIDC, Khamgaon, Dist. Buldhana,
Maharashtra Ghataji, Maharashtra (acquired under business transfer agreement from Khamgaon Syntex (India)
Ltd
Ghatanji, Maharashtra
Parola Road, Dhule, Dist. Yavatamal,
Maharashtra and
MIDC Area, Malkapur, District
Buldhana, Maharashtra, (under implementation).
Objects of the Issue:
The objects of the Issue are to achieve
the benefits of listing on the Stock Exchanges & to raise capital to:
Expansion Of Integrated Textile
Project At Khamgoan And Malkapur;
Set up a garment manufacturing plant;
Establish retail outlets;
General corporate purposes;
Meeting the Public Issue Expenses.
INVESTMENT RATIONAL
Company is facing tough competition
from Raymond, Arvind, provogue,
Mudra, Celebrity fashion,
Kutons
etc. Birla cotsyn has yet to develop its
retail outlet. Yashvardhan Birla a well
known figure for night parties of
Mumbai and Page three gosips have
number of companies which has poor
performance on sales and profits as
well as on stock markets. They come
out with a public or right issue every
year and fetch 100 to 150 crores. In
past they have come out with. Zenith
Birla, Birla Power solutions, Dagger
Forest etc. Investors has experience of
all of them in past. Hence we recommend staying away for good investors.
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
12
GOOD
LONGTERM
BET
ALLIED DIGITAL
BSE Code : 532875
Current Price : Rs. 830.60
Equity : 17.35 Crore
Allied Digital Services Ltd. (ADSL), a
12-year old Mumbai based company
was established in 1995 as a private limited company and later became public
limited in 2006. It is engaged in the
business of providing a wide spectrum
of IT solutions & services to a diverse
customer base.
NOC comprises monitoring and management of a wide variety of devices & platforms and applications. The company
plans to use a combination of industry
standard remote monitoring & management systems (RMS), Managed Security
Services (MSS) and 'Cheque Truncation
Services' (CTS).
ADSL is basically an IT Infrastructure
Management and Technical Support
Services outsourcing company. It has
enabled global, large and medium enterprises and service providers to reduce
their total cost of ownership using a
combination of onsite and remote services. Its Security Operations Centre facility has state-of-the-art Physical Security Systems ranging from Biometric
Access Control, Closed Circuit TV, Firedetection and Suppression Systems. Mr.
Nitin Shah is the chairman and managing director of the company.
ADSL has also forged technology and
strategic alliances with international
leading companies like IBM, Microsoft,
Intel, Unisys, CISCO Systems, Stonesoft,
Resilience and domestic outfits like
NIIT, HP, etc.
ADSL, a Systems Integrator and IT Infrastructure Management Services Provider, operates across a network of 92
locations in 25 states across India with
a team of about 1,250 employees country-wide.
During September 2007, the company
announced the launch of Remote Management Services (RMS) consisting of
Network Operations Centre (NOC) and
Information Security Operation Centre
(SOC) at the Millennium Business Park,
a Software Technology Park at Mahape
near Mumbai. These RMS are supported
by Intel Inc, E-Cop, Singapore and HP.
HINDALCO INDUS. LTD.
Hindalco Industries Limited, a flagship
company of the Aditya Birla Group, is
structured into two strategic businesses
- Aluminium and Copper - and is an industry leader in both. A metals powerhouse with a turnover of US$ 14 billion, Hindalco is the world's largest aluminum rolling company and one of the
biggest producers of primary aluminum
in Asia. Its copper smelter is today the
world's largest custom smelter at a single
location.
Established in 1958, Hindalco commissioned its aluminums facility at
Renukoot in eastern U.P. in 1962 and
has today grown to become the
country's largest integrated aluminum
producer and ranks among the top
quartile of low cost producers in the
world.
With a strategic intent to achieve vertical integration in the copper business,
Hindalco acquired two captive copper
The company's clientele includes leading corporates spanning across sectors
like banking, finance, insurance manufacturing, services and retail. They include reputed names like Reliance, Pfizer,
Thermax, Glaxo and Maruti from the
manufacturing sector; ICICI Bank, SBI,
BOI, HSBC, HDFC bank and others from
the banking sector; TCS, NIIT, Syntel
from the IT sector; Reliance Power,
BHEL, GAIL, Tata Power, etc. from the
power sector and Shoppers Stop and
McDonalds from retail.
Sales and NP for year ended 07 - 08 were
297.3 Cr & 42.9 Cr. Sales and NP for latest Quarter 82.0 Cr & 12.4 Cr.
On YOY basis NP has increased by 87%
& based on quarter latest its increased by
60%
The scrip looks good for 10 - 15 % appreciation in short to medium term.
BSE Code : 500440
Current Price : Rs. 145.40
Equity : 122.71 Crore
mines in Australia - Nifty and Mt. Gordon through Aditya Birla Minerals Limited.
The aluminum division's product range
includes alumina chemicals, primary aluminum ingots, billets, wire rods, rolled
products, extrusions, foils and alloy
wheels.
The company's copper product range includes copper cathodes and continuous
cast copper rods. It also produces precious
metals, sulphuric acid, phosphoric acid,
di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and
other phosphoric fertilizers, and phosphor-gypsum.
In May 2007, Novelis became a Hindalco
subsidiary with the completion of the
acquisition process. The transaction
makes Hindalco the world's largest aluminum rolling company and one of the
biggest producers of primary aluminum
in Asia, as well as being India's leading
copper producer.
The stock has come down sharply on account of below expectation results…
PRAJ INDUSTRIES
Praj Industries Ltd. (Praj) is a leading
Biofuels Technology company with a
number of processes and systems for ethanol and biodiesel production to its credit.
Praj provides end-to end solutions,
backed by years of research and development, in 40 countries across 5 continents. It offers one of the largest resources to support the biofuels industry.
Praj offers innovative solutions to significantly add value in ethanol, bio-diesel and brewery technology and related
wastewater treatment systems for customers, worldwide. It provides customized
engineering and manufacturing solutions, systems and services with a strong
infrastructure in design and engineering,
which enables response to specific needs
of output in accordance with process
needs.
Praj is a knowledge-based company with
expertise and experience in bioprocesses
and engineering. The company has designed and supplied plant and equipment
for a number of industries including
Chemicals, Agrochemical, Power, Distilleries, Breweries, Fruit/Food Processing,
Pharmaceutical and Dairies. Praj is
amongst the world's single largest supplier of molasses-based distillery technology, plant and equipment.
The company's principal activity is to
manufacture turnkey plants and equipment for fermentation and distillation
systems, worldwide. Distillery (Ethanol)
plants and equipment and related wastewater treatment systems continue to form
more than 85% of the revenues. Whereas,
brewery and other process equipment
account for the balance 15%.
The R&D wing of Praj, dedicated to ethanol technology, offers a competitive advantage over other players. Its foray into
biofuels technology will also offer a sizeable potential growth, given that most
countries are major diesel consumers and
nearly 60% of the incremental growth in
world transport fuel is diesel-based.
Currently, revenue contribution from the
export market is likely to scale up, owing to the increasing business opportunities in Europe and the UK, the US and
Brazil.
Opportunities in biofuels:
World ethanol production, as per industry estimates, is expected to surpass 90
billion liters by 2010. Globally, over 300
to 400 ethanol plants are likely to be in-
from over 200 levels to around 140. one
can buy at current levels for a gain of 30
- 40 % upside in 6 - 8 months.
BSE Code : 522205
Current Price : Rs. 172.70
Equity : 36.63 Crore
stalled over the next three to four years.
Countries, which are not very high gasoline consumers, like Peru and Colombia
in South America, Philippines and Indonesia in Asia or even OPEC countries like
Nigeria have also announced ethanol
programs, while large users of gasoline
like USA, China, Japan and EU nations,
continue to promote ethanol. Thus, in order to keep pace with the growing demand, companies, including Praj, are in
vesting into identifying newer energy
crops like sweet sorghum and the next
frontier of ethanol, cellulosic raw materials, new micro-organisms, new plant
models which will be more energy efficient.
Praj has set up a manufacturing unit at
the Kandla Special Economic Zone
(SEZ). The commissioned area is about
75,000 sq. ft., which has a capacity to
manufacture 3500 tonnes of equipment.
The facility is equipped with state-of-theart machinery and a very high level of
automation in welding and other processes.
The SEZ facility was an outcome of the
company's pursuit of global business of
biofuels projects, which involve supply
of larger dimensioned equipment. A major benefit of this unit is its proximity to
the Port, which will in itself cut down on
transportation/logistics cost. Further, the
tax benefits availed by the company will
also boost the profit margins of PRAJ.
Praj's acquisition of an US-based company, CJ Schneider, an equipment provider, is also likely to expand the PRAJ's
client base in America.
Praj has also formed a joint venture with
Brazil's Jaragua Equipamentos
Industriais, a leading Brazilian engineering major, wherein Praj will hold 54%
stake. This venture will help Praj tap the
huge ethanol production market in Brazil.
The Government's decision to blend
ethanol with petrol is a welcome move.
With sugar prices on a downturn, sugar
companies could rely to a greater extent
on byproducts such as ethanol for revenues and profits. Hence, capex in this
segment is likely to continue and will
also attract additional investment in furContinue on ....10
29-6-2008 to 5-7-2008
INTRODUCTION :
Shri Antaryami is connected
with Stock Market since last
many years and giving right
guidance to many people
among the country and out
side the country also. He has
great experience and knowledge of the Stock Market and
he is counting as a leader analyst in Gujarat. He is connected with Stock Market research and it becomes his profession. Due to personal circumstances, he do not want to
share his introduction, but he
always remain well wisher of
small investors and thinks for
them and always catch the opportunity to guide them. It is
his pleasure to help and guide
small investors.
SELL NIFTY FO @
4080 SL 4050 TGT @
4260 BEFORE July,
2008
SENSEX – 13802 as on
27/6/08
Dear Friends,
Sensex has resistance at
14200 Level with highly
13
MARKET
MARKET IS
IS HIGHLY
HIGHLY VOLATILE
VOLATILE
Volatile Trend; above
which other resistance levels are at 14500 In downside support levels are at
13735 levels; below 13600
level, other support levels
are at 13500 levels. I am
negative for next week below 13700 but be with the
trend. Let the market decide
further moves. As we are
saying from many days
Buying is suggested in falls
only... and its still a better
strategy in the given
scenario...Regarding long
term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If sensex
crosses 14500 again
then the upper side target is quite high and it
may touch 15200 before July, 2008!!!
One can go for buy at
those levels also, but in
absence of that its time
to book profits. This is
a pessimistic outlook
DIAMOND STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
Dipak Nitrate : (144) : Buy at Rs 140 levels considering minor support of Rs 138 and
stoploss of Rs 135 for an upper target of Rs 152 levels. Below Rs. 133 it can slide upto RS
128 and RS 125 levels.
GLCL : (70 ) : Operator based buying has been there in this stock. It is suggested to buy
at RS 65 with SL of RS 60 for the target of Rs 76 below RS 60 it can fall up to RS58-54
levels. If it crosses Rs 78 level than expect non stop rally up to Rs 84
Llyod Metal (63 ) : This stock is looking very good to buy at Rs 60 with SL of RS 58 for
the target of RS 69 levels below Rs. 55 stock shall witness free fall.
Lotus Chocklate (15 ) : Buy delivery of this stock at current levels with SL of Rs 13 for
the target of Rs 19 level. It is very good for long term position also.
Pennar Ind (36) : Buy at Rs 32 with SL of Rs 30 for the target of Rs 42 levels below Rs
30 it can show further fall.
Vijaya Bank : (35 ) : Technically accumulation in this stock has been at these levels.
Buy at Rs 32 with SL of RS 30 for the target of RS 52 levels. It is very good for short to
medium term.
Aiswarge Tele : (36) : Buy at Rs 32 With SL of RS 30 for the target of RS 48 level. It
is very good for medium to long term investment.
Well Pack: ( 21.) : Buy at Rs 18 with SL of Rs 16 for the target of RS 28 levels. It
is very good for medium to long term investment.
Bihar Sponge(14 ) : Buy at Rs 12 with SL of RS10 for the target of RS15-20 levels . It
is very good for medium to long term investment.
Nagarjun Ferti(37) : Buy delivery of this stock at current levels with SL of Rs 32 for the
target of 45 level. It is very good for long term position also.
4180 Level with highly
Volatile Trend, In Downside
support levels are at 405
Levels; below 4030 level,
other support levels are at
3980 levels. I am negative
for next week below 4030
but be with the trend. Let the
market decide further
moves. As we are saying
from many days Buying is
suggested in falls only...and
its still a better strategy in
the given scenario...!!!
but that’s the way we tend
to be, in this market.
NIFTY FO – 4080 as on
27.6.2008
NIFTY FO has resistance at
4135. Level ; above which
other resistance levels are at
Regarding long term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If
NIFTY crosses 4252 Level,
again then the upper side
target is quite high and it
may touch 4450 Level before July – 2008...!!! Here
is given Some GLODEN
STOCKS for the week.
FUTURE-PLATINUM
1
2
3
4
5
Cairns India (275 ) : Buy at Rs 268 with SL of RS.265 for
the target of RS290 level below Rs 265 it can show further
downfall.
IFCL: ( 40) : Buy at Rs 38 With SL of RS .36 for the target
of RS 48 level below Rs 34 it can show further downfall up
to Rs 31
R COM: (472) : Buy at Rs 465 with SL of RS 460 for the
target of RS 475-489 levels below Rs.455 it can show
further downfall up to RS 440
Adlab Films (472) : Buy at Rs 460 with SL of RS 455 for
the target of RS 495 levels below Rs. 452 it can show fur
ther downfall up to Rs.440
L & T: ( 2236) : Buy at Rs2200 with SL of RS2180 for the
target of RS 2350. levels below Rs.2250 it can show fur
ther downfall.
SMALL SAVING STARS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Micro Forge ( 7) : Buy at 6 with SL of RS.4 for the target
of RS. 10
Lotus chocklet (13 ) : It is suggested to buy with SL of RS
11 for the target of RS.18 below at RS .10 it can slip up to
RS .8. level. Crossover above Rs..18 evel will take the
stock to Rs.22
Supreme Textile: (13) : Buy at Rs.11 with SL of RS ..10
for the target of Rs.18 levels below Rs.10 it can show fur
ther downfall.
Spice Mobile (26) : Buy at Rs.22 with SL of RS.20 for the
target of Rs .32 levels . It is very good for long term position also.
Eco Plast (20) : Buy at Rs.18 with SL of RS.16for the
target of Rs.26 levels below Rs.15 it can show further fall.
ACCUMULATE AT EVERY DECLINE OR STAY AWAY