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Arbitron Diary Service
Fall 2008 Diary Market
Sample Performance and
Improvement Steps
February 2009
Tom O’Sullivan, Vice President, Diary Market Development
Dr. Ed Cohen, Vice President, Research Policy and Communication
1
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Customer Feedback
• Consistent feedback from the Radio Advisory
Council, the Diary Market Owner Operator Caucus,
Group customers and individual owners
» Sample Quality is “Job One”
» Provide regular sample performance updates to enhance
transparency
» Set performance benchmarks to gauge progress
» Urgent need to include Cell Phone Only Homes in the diary
market sample
2
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Agenda
• Diary market sample benchmarks
• Fall 2008 18-54 sample performance versus
benchmarks
• Diary quality improvement initiatives
• Implementation milestones
• Communication timeline
3
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Five Action Steps for Diary Market
Sample Quality Improvement
1. Extra sample in selected markets to boost 18-54
2. Cell phone only sampling for all diary markets in
Continental U.S., Hawaii and Alaska scheduled
for 2009
3. Redirecting cash incentives to boost 18-34
sample size
4. Young Male Promised Incentive
5. Second Chance Diary
4
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Diary Market
Sample Benchmarks
5
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
What “Benchmark” Means
• The level below which we plan to take corrective
measures
• A Benchmark is NOT the target… our goal is
always to achieve 100% of sample target
• Used to gauge sample size performance
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Persons 18-54 Diary Market
Sample Benchmark
• Benchmark for Persons 18-54 will be an 80 DDI
(Designated Delivery Index) effective with the fall
2008 survey
» Same metric used to gauge PPM sample size performance
» DDI = (In-tab for persons 18-54 / sample target for 18-54) X
100
• Should the actual sample performance fall below
the 80 DDI level in a given market/survey, we
intend to focus our efforts to bring the sample
performance above that threshold in subsequent
surveys
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Diary Sample Improvement Steps
Step 1) Extra sample for selected markets
to boost 18-54
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Extra Sample For Selected Markets
To Boost 18-54 Sample
• If a market’s in-tab consistently falls below the DDI
benchmark for persons 18-54…
» We plan to increase the total metro sample (Persons 12+) in
subsequent quarterly surveys
» The sample increase will be designed to produce an 80 DDI or
higher among persons 18-54 in that market
• If sample quality initiatives work as we hope and
18-54 DDI performance rises accordingly we may
not need to continue using extra sample to
maintain the 18-54 in-tab above the threshold
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Extra Sample Plans for
Winter and Spring 2009
• Winter 2009
» Persons 12+ sample increased in 27 markets based on
historical 18-54 DDI sample performance
• Spring 2009
» Plan to increase persons 12+ sample where historical persons
18-54 DDI was below 80
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•
For markets where Cell Phone Only Sampling has not been
scheduled in Spring 2009
•
Continuous Measurement markets: Based on Su 08/Fa 08
performance
•
Standard and Condensed markets: Based on Sp 08/Fa 08
performance
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Fall 2008 18-54 sample
performance versus
benchmark
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Persons 18-54 DDI Trends
All Diary Markets
Persons 18-54 DDI
100
92
90
89
90
WI07
SP07
SU07
86
89
FA07
WI08
84
86
84
SP08
SU08
FA08
75
50
25
0
FA06
12
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Fall 2008 Average 18-54 DDI
Consistent By Market Type
FA08
13
Avg. P18-54 DDI across all 288 markets
84
Avg. P18-54 DDI in 4 book markets (83)
85
Avg. P18-54 DDI in 2 book standard markets (86)
85
Avg. P18-54 DDI in condensed markets (119)
84
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
71 Markets in Fall 2008 Survey
Below 80 DDI for Persons 18-54
Fall 2008: Markets below 80 DDI
Persons 18-54
Total
Four book m arkets
Standard tw o book m arkets
Condensed m arkets (2 bk average)
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
71 out of 288 m arkets
25%
9 out of 83 m arkets
11%
23 out of 86 m arkets
27%
39 out of 119 m arkets
33%
Diary Market DDI Benchmark Report
Available from Your Arbitron Rep
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Diary Sample Improvement Steps
Step 2) Cell Phone Only Sampling
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
The Number of People with Cell
Phone Only is Growing Rapidly
National Health Interview Survey data
%of U.S. Persons 18+ Without Landline Telephones
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16.1% of persons 18+
are Cell Phone Only
15
10
5
0
1963 1970 1975 1980 19851986
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
1997 2001 Early Early
2003 2008
Cell Phone Only Trends Since 2003
% of Persons 18+ with Cell Phone Only
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Percentage
15
16.1
14.5
11.8
10
12.6
9.6
6.7
5
3.5
2.8
4.4
7.7
5.4
0
1H
2003
2H
2003
1H
2004
2H
2004
1H
2005
2H
2005
1H
2006
2H
2006
CPO P18+
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Source: National Health Interview Survey
National Center for Health Statistics
1H
2007
2H
2007
1H
2008
W
I
SP9 6
SU96
FA96
W 96
I
SP9 7
SU97
FA97
W 97
I
SP9 8
SU98
FA98
W 98
I
SP9 9
SU99
FA99
W 99
I
SP0 0
SU00
FA00
W 00
I
SP0 1
SU01
FA01
W 01
I
SP0 2
SU02
FA02
W 02
I
SP0 3
SU03
FA03
W 03
I
SP0 4
SU04
FA04
W 04
I
SP0 5
SU05
FA05
W 05
I
SP0 6
SU06
FA06
W 06
I
SP0 7
SU07
FA07
W 07
I
SP0 8
SU08
FA08
08
Arbitron sample Proportionality %
Rise in CPO Associated With Decline
of Young Adult Proportionality
18-24 and 25-34 Proportionality Trends
120
100
19
80
60
40
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Persons 25-29 Cell Phone Only = 35%
NHIS Estimate
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P18-24 Cell Phone Only 31%
NHIS Estimate
0
M1824
M2534
W1824
W2534
Plans to Include Cell Phone Only
Sampling in Diary Markets
• 151 diary markets scheduled to begin with Spring
2009 survey
• Remainder of markets scheduled for Fall 2009
• To see when your market is scheduled to receive
Cell Phone Only Sampling go to:
» www.arbitron.com/home/cell_phone_markets.htm
• Special presentation on Cell Phone Only Sampling
planned for mid-March (details coming soon)
20
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Diary Sample Improvement Steps
Step 3) Young Male Promised Incentive
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Young Male Promised Incentive
• The Young Male Promised Incentive is additional
money for people in homes with a male 18-34
» Cash is still sent with the diary package
» $10 extra to everyone in a Male 18-34 household who returns
a diary
• Spring 2008
» Implemented in 117 two book markets (Standard and
condensed)
• Fall 2008 and Spring 2009
» 23 markets added
» 140 total
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Young Male Promised Incentive
Helped to Improve Proportionality
Proportionality in YMPI Markets
Fall 2007
Before YMPI
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Fall 2008 Pts. Gained
With YMPI
M 18-24
46.0
52.5
+ 6.5
M 25-34
57.1
59.2
+ 2.1
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Diary Sample Improvement Steps
Step 4) Redirecting cash incentives to
boost 18-34 sample size
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Redirecting Cash Incentives
To Boost 18-34 Sample Size
• Scheduled for Spring 2009
» Reduce cash incentives for people in homes with persons 55+
only
» Redirect funds to maintain Young Male Promised Incentive in
Spring 2009 Cell Phone Only Markets
» Enabled by household enumeration implemented in Winter
2008
•
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Identify demographic characteristics of household members
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Diary Sample Improvement Steps
Step 5) Second Chance Diary
26
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Second Chance Diary
• Gives those who agreed to participate but did not
return diaries another chance to participate
» Asked to participate (second chance) six weeks later
• Second Chance Diary added in all continuous
metros in Spring 2008
• In markets where Second Chance Diary was
implemented we saw some gains in response rates
and proportionality among young adult, black and
Hispanic sample
27
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Arbitron Diary Service
Implementation Milestones
Diary Market Sample
Improvement
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Diary Market Sample Improvement
Spring 2008 Milestones
• Sample Increase in 47 markets
• Second Chance Diary
» 94 four book markets
• Expanded Young Male Promised Incentive
» 117 two book markets
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Diary Market Sample Improvement
Fall 2008 Milestones
• Second Chance Diary
» 94 CM Markets
• Expanded Young Male Promised Incentive to 23
more markets - 140 total markets
• Test of “Premium Redistribution”
• Diary Benchmark implemented
» 80 DDI for Persons 18-54 in diary markets
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Diary Market Sample Improvement
Planned: 2009 Milestones
• Winter 2009
» Extra sample ordered in 27 markets
» Designed to produce 80+ DDI among persons 18-54 in these markets
• Spring 2009
» 151 Diary markets scheduled to receive Cell Phone sampling
» For markets not scheduled for Cell Phone Only Sampling, we plan to
order extra sample where historical persons 18-54 DDI fell below the
benchmark
• Based on an average of the two most recent surveys in 2008
» Premium Redistribution expected to start
» Young Male Promised Incentive maintained in 140 markets
• Fall 2009
» All diary markets in continental U.S., Hawaii and Alaska are
scheduled to receive Cell Phone sampling
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Diary Market
Communication Timeline
• Mid-March
» Presentation on Cell Phone Only Sampling Implementation in
diary markets
• May
» Winter survey diary market update
• Late August/Early September
» Spring 2009 survey update
• Late October/Early November
» Summer 2009 survey update
• February
» Fall 2009 update
32
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Five Action Steps for Diary Market
Sample Quality Improvement
1. Extra sample in selected markets to boost 18-54
2. Cell phone only sampling for all diary markets in
Continental U.S., Hawaii and Alaska scheduled
for 2009
3. Redirecting cash incentives to boost 18-34
sample size
4. Young Male Promised Incentive
5. Second Chance Diary
33
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
In Conclusion…
• These steps represent some of the most
significant investments that Arbitron has
undertaken in its radio diary service
• We trust that these steps demonstrate our
commitment to enhancing confidence in the diary
market service via ongoing improvements in
sample quality
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Where To Go For Answers
• About this presentation
» Tom O’Sullivan – tom.o’[email protected] / 212-887-1368
» Ed Cohen – [email protected] / 410-312-8592
• Contacts for service/training
» www.arbitron.com/who2call/map_radio.htm
• About the diary service in general
» [email protected]
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© 2009 Arbitron Inc.