Neovacs A very promising new technology Pharma /

Neovacs
Pharma / France
Document generated on the 15/10/2014
A very promising new technology
KEY DATA
12/12A
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Adjusted P/E (x)
Buy
Upside potential : 56.4%
Target Price (6 months)
5.05
Share Price
€ 3.23
Market Capitalisation €M
63.7
Price Momentum
Extremes 12Months
GOOD
1.62
4.40
-6.18
-4.91
-11.9
7.24
8.39
Dividend yield (%)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EV/EBITDA(R) (x)
-5.57
-5.16
-7.88
4.19
3.97
Adjusted EPS (€)
-0.45
-0.40
-0.27
0.45
0.38
Dividend (€)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sales (€M)
0.00
0.03
0.00
18.1
24.5
ns
ns
ns
72.0
48.3
Attributable net profit (€M)
-7.34
-6.99
-5.33
8.79
7.59
ROE (after tax) (%)
-157
-766
261
-2,850
96.3
Gearing (%)
-622
-670
-111
-109
Growth in EPS (%)
EBIT margin (%)
-13.7
Last forecasts updated on the 03/10/2014
Benchmarks
Values (€)
Upside
Weight
5.27
63%
40%
DCF
NAV/SOTP per share
5.54
71%
40%
P/E
Peers
6.46
100%
5%
EV/Ebitda
Peers
6.46
100%
5%
P/Book
Peers
1.62
-50%
5%
Dividend Yield
Peers
0.00
-100%
5%
5.05
56%
100%
TARGET PRICE
Conflicts of interest
Corporate broking
NO
Trading in corporate shares
NO
Analyst ownership
NO
Advising of corporate (strategy, marketing, debt, etc)
NO
Research paid for by corporate
YES
Provision of corporate access paid for by corporate
NO
Analyst
Link between AlphaValue and a banking entity
NO
Armelle Moulin
[email protected]
Brokerage activity at AlphaValue
NO
@
www.alphavalue.com
+33 (0) 1 70 61 10 50
[email protected]
Contract research, paid for by the above corporate entity. Equity research methods and procedures are as applied by AlphaValue. Target prices and opinions are thus exclusively determined by those
methods and procedures.
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Contents
Recent Updates....................................................................................................................
3
Target Price & Opinion....................................................................................................
5
Businesses & Trends......................................................................................................
6
Money Making.................................................................................................................
7
Debt.................................................................................................................................
8
Valuation.........................................................................................................................
9
DCF.................................................................................................................................
10
NAV/SOTP......................................................................................................................
11
Worth Knowing................................................................................................................
12
Financials........................................................................................................................
13
Pension Risks..................................................................................................................
20
Governance & Management...........................................................................................
22
Graphics..........................................................................................................................
24
Methodology.........................................................................................................................
27
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 2
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Recent Updates
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 3
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Updates
03/10/2014 A very promising new technology
Change in EPS
2014 : € -0.27 vs -0.35
2015 : € 0.45 vs 0.48
ns
-6.82%
We have revised upward our 2014 EPS after the H1 results due to a very strong cost control. However, we have
revised slightly downward our 2015 EPS due to the increase in expenses, linked to the pipeline's progress.
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 4
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Target Price & Opinion
Stock Price and Target Price
Earnings Per Share & Opinion
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 5
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Businesses & Trends
Businesses & Trends
Neovacs is a biotechnology company which is in an R&D phase (cash burn / see ”funding” section). It specialises in active
immunotherapy by targeting cytokines over-expressed in diseases such as autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Its strategy
revolves around:
1/ A specific technology based on kinoids (molecules that stimulate the immune system to produce polyclonal antibodies against
targeted cytokines) which should offer various advantages over monoclonal antibodies.
2/ Medical targets that meet three requirements: a) a pre-existing validation (e.g. cytokines for which neutralisation by monoclonal
antibodies has been proven to be clinically beneficial); b) unmet medical needs; and c) large and growing markets.
3/ A very light cost structure (only a c.20 highly qualified headcount) with industrial activities being fully outsourced.
The current portfolio consists of three drug candidates:
1 / TNF-Kinoid in rheumatoid arthritis (Ph IIb) and Crohn's disease (Ph II a), whose global market was above $20bn.
2 / IFNa-Kinoid with Lupus (Ph II) as the primary indication. The global market is estimated at over $5bn. Benlysta is the first drug
approved for this indication in 50 years. It is also likely that this disease is misdiagnosed.
3 / VEGF-Kinoid (AMD, solid cancerous tumours) whose global market was above $10bn.
Divisional Breakdown Of Revenues
Sector
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Change 14E/13
€M
of % total
Change 15E/14E
€M
of % total
IFN-K
Biotech
0.00
0.00
15.6
18.5
0
NA
16
86%
TNF-K
Biotech
0.00
0.00
2.50
6.00
0
NA
3
14%
Other
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
NA
0
0%
Total sales
0.00
0.00
18.1
24.5
0
NA
18
100%
Key Exposures
Sales By Geography
Revenues
Costs
Equity
Dollar
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Emerging currencies
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Other
100.0%
We address exposures (eg. how much of the turnover is exposed to the $ ) rather than sensitivities (say, how much a 5% move in the $ affects the bottom line). This is to make
comparisons easier and provides useful tools when extracting relevant data.
Actually, the subject is rather complex on the ground. The default position is one of an investor managing in €. An investor in £ will obviously not react to a £ based stock trading partly in €
as would a € based investor. In addition, certain circumstances can prove difficult to unravel such as for eg. a € based investor confronted to a Swiss company reporting in $ but with a
quote in CHF... Sales exposure is probably straightforward but one has to be careful with deep cyclicals. Costs exposure is a bit less easy to determine (we do not allow for hedges as
they can only be postponing the day of reckoning). How much of the equity is exposed to a given subject is rarely straightforward but can be quite telling
In addition, subjects are frequently intertwined. A $ exposure may encompass all revenues in $ pegged currencies and an emerging currency exposure is likely to include $ pegged
currencies as well.
Exposure to global warming issues is frequently indirect and may require to stretch a bit imagination.
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 6
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Money Making
Money Making
Like any young biotech company, Neovacs has no turnover and thus writes red ink. Earnings prospects are intimately linked to
management's ability to establish profitable partnerships. Neovacs can fund its current Phase II work in progress through its existing
cash but cannot start the Phase III studies on its own. Assuming signatures in 2015, conditional marketing authorisations for RA and
lupus may be obtained from 2018. This would generate a steady income of royalties, growing with the number of second-line
patients: in 2012, more than half of the patients with RA will have to use a second anti-IFN treatment due to the loss of response to
the first one. Immediate funding is the crux of the issue, please see “debt/funding” section.
Divisional EBIT
Change 14E/13
Change 15E/14E
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
TNF-K
-6.41
-7.65
12.4
11.2
-1
95%
20
95%
IFN-K
-0.34
-0.40
0.65
0.59
0
5%
1
5%
-6.75
-8.05
13.0
11.8
-1
100%
21
100%
€M
of % total
€M
of % total
Other/cancellations
Total
Divisional EBIT margin
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
495%
187%
IFN-K
ns
ns
4.18%
3.20%
Total
ns
ns
72.0%
48.3%
TNF-K
October 15 2014
12/16E
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 7
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Debt
Debt
Neovacs benefits from a strong balance sheet with few debts and enough cash to last to H1 15. Capex requirements are very low
given the business model.
At the beginning of 2013, the company carried out capital increases totalling €7.2m.
Beyond the current FY, funding for its activity development is obviously dependent on the signing of partnerships. These agreements
generally include upfront payments (which fund the development costs), milestone payments (which enhance with the progress in the
pipeline of drug candidates), royalties (usually between 10% and 20% of sales after approval) and reimbursement of development
costs in the case of the search for new therapeutic indications.
Given: 1/ unmet medical needs in the targeted diseases, 2/ strong advantages of kinoids over monoclonal antibodies, and 3/ the
need for many pharmaceutical companies to strengthen their pipeline, we believe that the group will sign one or two partnerships in
the coming months.
Accordingly, we have built our business plan around two hypotheses (see cell comments): 1/ partnership signings in 2015 and 2/
conditional approvals for TNF-Kinoid and IFNa-Kinoid from 2018.
Funding - Liquidity
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
EBITDA
€M
-6.62
-8.05
13.0
11.8
Funds from operations (FFO)
€M
-6.41
-5.32
8.80
7.59
Ordinary shareholders' equity
€M
0.62
-4.71
4.09
11.7
Gross debt
€M
0.01
1.00
0.50
70.0
o/w Less than 1 year - Gross debt
€M
0.01
1.00
0.50
70.0
o/w 1 to 5 year - Gross debt
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+2
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+3
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+4
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+5
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
o/w Beyond 5 years - Gross debt
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
+ Gross Cash
€M
4.02
1.14
9.46
86.6
= Net debt / (cash)
€M
-4.01
-0.14
-8.96
-16.6
Bank borrowings
€M
0.01
1.00
0.50
70.0
Issued bonds
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Financial leases liabilities
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mortgages
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other financing
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Gearing (at book value)
%
-670
-111
-109
Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R)
x
0.61
0.02
-0.69
-1.40
Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDA(R)
x
-0.03
-0.15
0.05
5.93
Adj. gross debt/(Adj. gross debt+Equity)
%
22.5
-33.1
14.1
85.7
Ebit cover
x
-19.8
80.5
-130
23.6
FFO/Gross Debt
%
-3,548
-455
1,311
10.8
FFO/Net debt
%
160
3,678
-98.2
-45.8
FCF/Adj. gross debt (%)
%
-3,960
-330
1,314
10.8
(Gross cash+ "cash" FCF+undrawn)/ST debt
x
-329
-2.72
36.6
1.35
"Cash" FCF/ST debt
x
-729
-3.86
17.6
0.11
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 8
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Valuation
Valuation
The DCF valuation is based on two main hypotheses: 1/ signing partnerships with upfront and predefined development milestone
payments and 2/ royalties received from 2018 in TNF-K and 2020 in Lupus are at a 20% rate based on sales discounted by 80%.
This discount will be reduced gradually as the pipeline progresses.
In the NAV valuation, we value TNF-Kinoid and IFNa-Kinoid at EV/Sales of 2.5x 2020e (€350m for TNF-K) and 1x 2025e (peak
sales at €1,020m for Lupus) respectively, discounted at 15%, with an initial discount of 80% due to the early stage in the pipeline
and a second discount of 40% due to Neovacs' lack of marketing capacity. The signing of an agreement will immediately trigger off
the elimination of the second discount and progress in the pipeline will also gradually reduce the first discount. For a peer
comparison, we select Genmab.
Valuation Summary
Benchmarks
Values (€)
Upside
Weight
DCF
5.27
63%
40%
NAV/SOTP per share
5.54
71%
40%
P/E
Peers
6.46
100%
5%
EV/Ebitda
Peers
6.46
100%
5%
P/Book
Peers
1.62
-50%
5%
Dividend Yield
Peers
0.00
-100%
5%
5.05
56%
Target Price
Comparison based valuation
Computed on 18 month forecasts
Peers ratios
Neovacs's ratios
Premium
Default comparison based valuation (€)
Genmab
October 15 2014
P/E (x)
Ev/Ebitda (x)
P/Book (x)
Yield(%)
ns
49.6
6.77
0.00
13.2
7.96
30.8
0.00
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
6.46
6.46
1.62
0.00
ns
49.6
6.77
0.00
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 9
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
DCF
DCF Valuation Per Share
WACC
%
16.0
Avg net debt (cash) at book value
€M
-4.55
PV of cashflow FY1-FY11
€M
59.0
Provisions
€M
0.17
FY11CF
€M
24.8
Unrecognised actuarial losses (gains)
€M
0.00
Normalised long-term growth"g"
%
2.00
Financial assets at market price
€M
0.29
Terminal value
€M
177
Minorities interests (fair value)
€M
0.00
PV terminal value
€M
40.2
Equity value
€M
104
PV terminal value in % of total value
%
40.5
Number of shares
Mio
19.7
Total PV
€M
99.2
Implied equity value per share
€
5.27
Assessing The Cost Of Capital
Synthetic default risk free rate
%
4.00
Company debt spread
bp
250
Target equity risk premium
%
5.00
Marginal Company cost of debt
%
6.50
%
30.0
Company beta (leveraged)
x
2.40
Company gearing at market value
%
-0.23
Company market gearing
%
-0.23
Required return on geared equity
%
16.0
Cost of debt
%
4.55
Cost of ungeared equity
%
16.0
WACC
%
16.0
Tax advantage of debt finance
(normalised)
Average debt maturity
Sector asset beta
Debt beta
Market capitalisation
Net debt (cash) at book value
Net debt (cash) at market value
Year
5
x
2.40
x
0.50
€M
63.7
€M
-0.14
€M
-0.14
DCF Calculation
12/13A
€M
EBITDA
€M
0.00
18.1
24.5
15.0%
28.1
74.8
-6.62
-8.05
22,148 804,840
-0.50
1.49
13.0
11.8
15.0%
13.6
36.2
EBITDA Margin
%
72.0
48.4
48.4
48.4
Change in WCR
€M
Total operating cash flows (pre tax)
€M
-6.78
-6.56
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.14
13.1
11.9
Corporate tax
€M
0.00
2.62
-4.33
-3.74
Net tax shield
€M
-0.10
Capital expenditure
€M
-0.03
0.03
0.03
-0.03
-0.03
Capex/Sales
%
-116
-2,600
-0.14
Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes)
€M
-6.92
-3.93
€M
-6.92
-3.93
Discounted free cash flows
€M
-6.92
-3.93
7.54
5.92
5.87
5.52
Invested capital
€
0.70
-0.77
-0.79
-0.82
-0.94
-2.50
Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF
purposes
Free cash flow adjusted
October 15 2014
0.03
12/14E 12/15E 12/16E Growth 12/17E 12/24E
Sales
15.0%
13.7
36.3
15.0%
-4.30
-11.4
-0.15
15.0%
-0.17
-0.46
-0.03
15.0%
-0.03
-0.08
-0.11
-0.11
-0.11
8.75
7.96
9.16
24.4
8.75
7.96
9.16
24.4
€M
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 10
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
NAV/SOTP (edit)
NAV/SOTP Calculation
% owned
Valuation
technique
Multiple
used
Valuation at
100%
(€M)
Stake
valuation
(€M)
In
currency
per share
(€)
% of gross
assets
TNF-K
100%
EV/Sales
2.50
75.0
75.0
3.81
66.1%
IFN-K
100%
EV/Sales
1.00
38.1
38.1
1.93
33.6%
VEGF-K
100%
EV/Sales
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00%
Other
0.29
0.01
0.26%
Total gross assets
113
5.75
100%
Net cash/(debt) by year end
0.14
0.01
0.13%
-4.38
-0.22
-3.86%
NAV/SOTP
109
5.54
96.3%
Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Mio)
19.7
NAV/SOTP per share (€)
5.54
Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%)
41.7
Commitments to pay
Commitments received
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 11
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Worth Knowing
Worth Knowing
Note that Truffle Capital, Novartis Venture Fund, OTC asset management and Debioinnovation are historical shareholders.
Shareholders
% owned
Of which
% voting rights
Of which
% free to float
TRUFFLE CAPITAL
24.0%
33.0%
24.0%
Novartis Venture Fund
17.0%
11.0%
17.0%
OTC asset management
7.00%
10.0%
7.00%
Founders and managers Neovacs
5.00%
9.00%
5.00%
Debioinnovation
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Name
Apparent free float
October 15 2014
100%
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 12
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Valuation Key Data
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Adjusted P/E
x
-4.91
-11.9
7.24
8.39
Reported P/E
x
-5.48
-11.9
7.24
8.39
EV/EBITDA(R)
x
-5.16
-7.88
4.19
3.97
P/Book
x
61.5
-13.5
15.6
5.45
Dividend yield
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Free cash flow yield
%
-18.7
-6.07
13.9
12.0
Average stock price
€
1.95
3.23
3.23
3.23
Consolidated P&L
Sales
€M
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
0.03
0.00
18.1
24.5
Sales growth
%
298,620
-96.7
1,809,086
35.2
Sales per employee
€th
1.57
0.05
952
1,287
Purchases and external costs (incl. IT)
€M
-5.31 (1)
-7.70
-5.41
-12.9
Staff costs
€M
-2.55
-1.23
-1.26
-1.29
Operating lease payments
€M
Cost of sales/COGS (indicative)
€M
-0.55
-0.57
-0.66
-0.73
EBITDA
€M
-6.62
-8.05
13.0
11.8
EBITDA(R)
€M
-6.62
-8.05
13.0
11.8
ns
ns
72.0
48.4
EBITDA(R) margin
%
EBITDA(R) per employee
€th
-348
-424
686
623
Depreciation
€M
-0.04
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
Depreciations/Sales
%
146
500
0.03
0.02
Amortisation
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Additions to provisions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Reduction of provisions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Underlying operating profit
€M
-6.66
-8.05
13.0
11.8
Underlying operating margin
%
ns
ns
72.0
48.3
Other income/expense (cash)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other inc./ exp. (non cash; incl. assets revaluation)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mark to market on various operation-related hedges
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Earnings from joint venture(s)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Actual dividends from Jvs
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Actual accrued cash flows from JV
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Impairment charges/goodwill amortisation
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Operating profit (EBIT)
€M
-6.66
-8.05
13.0
11.8
Interest expenses
€M
-0.36
-0.10
-0.50
-1.00
0.50
of which amortisation of concession intangibles
€M
-0.13
Financial income
of which effectively paid cash interest expenses
€M
0.23
0.20
0.60
Other financial income (expense)
€M
-0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net financial expenses
€M
-0.34
0.10
0.10
-0.50
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pre-tax profit before exceptional items
of which related to pensions
€M
-7.00
-7.95
13.1
11.3
Exceptional items and other (before taxes)
€M
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which cash (cost) from exceptionals
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Current tax
€M
0.00
2.62
-4.33
-3.74
Impact of tax loss carry forward
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Deferred tax
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Corporate tax
€M
0.00
2.62
-4.33
-3.74
Tax rate
%
0.00
33.0
33.0
33.0
Net margin
%
ns
ns
48.6
31.0
Equity associates
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Actual dividends received from equity holdings
Minority interests
Actual dividends paid out to minorities
Income from discontinued operations
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
1. Increase linked with the costs of
pre-approval
Page 13
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Attributable net profit
€M
-6.99
-5.33
8.79
7.59
Impairment charges/goodwill amortisation
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other adjustments
€M
Adjusted attributable net profit
€M
-6.99
-5.33
8.79
7.59
Interest expense savings
€M
Fully diluted adjusted attr. net profit
€M
-6.99
-5.33
8.79
7.59
NOPAT
€M
-4.66
-5.64
9.12
8.28
Cashflow Statement
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
EBITDA
€M
-6.62
-8.05
13.0
11.8
Change in WCR
€M
-0.50
1.49
0.04
0.05
of which (increases)/decr. in receivables
€M
-0.04
0.03
0.00
0.00
of which (increases)/decr. in inventories
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which increases/(decr.) in payables
€M
1.27
0.82
0.15
0.16
of which increases/(decr.) in other curr. liab.
€M
-1.74
0.63
-0.11
-0.11
Actual dividends received from equity holdings
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Paid taxes
€M
0.00
2.62
-4.33
-3.74
Exceptional items
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other operating cash flows
€M
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total operating cash flows
€M
-6.78
-3.94
8.74
8.14
Capital expenditure
€M
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
Capex as a % of depreciation & amort.
%
79.3
520
520
520
Net investments in shares
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other investment flows
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total investment flows
€M
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
Net interest expense
€M
-0.34
0.10
0.10
-0.50
€M
-0.13
0.10
0.10
-0.50
Dividends (parent company)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Dividends to minorities interests
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
New shareholders' equity
€M
6.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Change in gross debt
€M
0.41
0.99
-0.50
69.5
Other financial flows
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total financial flows
€M
6.58
1.09
-0.40
69.0
Change in scope of consolidation, exchange rates & other
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Change in cash position
€M
-0.24
-2.87
8.32
77.1
Change in net debt position
€M
-0.65
-3.86
8.82
7.61
Free cash flow (pre div.)
€M
-7.15
-3.86
8.82
7.61
Operating cash flow (clean)
€M
-6.78
-3.94
8.74
8.14
Reinvestment rate (capex/tangible fixed assets)
%
8.99
6.32
5.94
5.61
of which cash interest expense
of which (acquisition) release of treasury shares
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 14
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Balance Sheet
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Capitalised R&D
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Goodwill
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Contracts & Rights (incl. concession) intangible assets
€M
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
Other intangible assets
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total intangible
€M
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
Tangible fixed assets
€M
0.09
0.12
0.14
0.17
Financial fixed assets (part of group strategy)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Financial hedges (LT derivatives)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other financial assets (investment purpose mainly)
€M
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
€M
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
€M
0.59
-0.90
-0.94
-0.99
of which available for sale
WCR
of which trade & receivables (+)
€M
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
of which inventories (+)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which payables (+)
€M
2.18
3.00
3.15
3.31
of which other current liabilities (+)
€M
-2.73
-2.10
-2.21
-2.32
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total assets (net of short term liabilities)
€M
0.99
-0.47
-0.50
-0.52
Ordinary shareholders' equity (group share)
€M
0.62
-4.71
4.09
11.7
Minority interests
€M
Provisions for pensions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other provisions for risks and liabilities
€M
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
Deferred tax liabilities
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other liabilities
€M
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.21
Net debt / (cash)
€M
-4.01
-0.14
-8.96
-16.6
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
€M
0.99
-0.47
-0.50
-0.52
Average net debt / (cash)
€M
-4.18
-2.08
-4.55
-12.8
Other current assets
of which tax assets (+)
EV Calculations
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
EV/EBITDA(R)
x
-5.16
-7.88
4.19
3.97
EV/EBIT (underlying profit)
x
-5.13
-7.87
4.19
3.97
EV/Sales
x
ns
ns
3.02
1.92
EV/Invested capital
x
49.0
-82.6
-69.0
-57.4
€M
38.3
63.7
63.7
63.7
+ Provisions (including pensions)
Market cap
€M
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
+ Unrecognised actuarial losses/(gains)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
+ Net debt at year end
€M
-4.01
-0.14
-8.96
-16.6
+ Leases debt equivalent
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
- Financial fixed assets (fair value) & Others
€M
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
+ Minority interests (fair value)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
= Enterprise Value
€M
34.2
63.4
54.6
47.0
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 15
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Per Share Data
Adjusted EPS (bfr gwill amort. & dil.)
€
Growth in EPS
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
-0.40
-0.27
0.45
%
12/16E
0.38
-13.7
Reported EPS
€
-0.36
-0.27
0.45
0.38
Net dividend per share
€
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Free cash flow per share
€
-0.41
-0.20
0.45
0.39
Operating cash flow per share
€
-0.38
-0.20
0.44
0.41
Book value per share
€
0.03
-0.24
0.21
0.59
Number of ordinary shares
Mio
19.7
19.7
19.7
19.7
Number of equivalent ordinary shares (year end)
Mio
19.7
19.7
19.7
19.7
Number of shares market cap.
Mio
19.7
19.7
19.7
19.7
Treasury stock (year end)
Mio
Number of shares net of treasury stock (year end)
Mio
19.7
19.7
19.7
19.7
Number of common shares (average)
Mio
17.6
19.7
19.7
19.7
Conversion of debt instruments into equity
Mio
Settlement of cashable stock options
Mio
Probable settlement of non mature stock options
Mio
Other commitments to issue new shares
Mio
Increase in shares outstanding (average)
Mio
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Number of diluted shares (average)
Mio
17.6
19.7
19.7
19.7
Goodwill per share (diluted)
€
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EPS after goodwill amortisation (diluted)
€
-0.40
-0.27
0.45
0.38
EPS before goodwill amortisation (non-diluted)
€
-0.40
-0.27
0.45
0.38
Actual payment
€
Payout ratio
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Capital payout ratio (div +share buy back/net income)
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 16
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Funding - Liquidity
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
EBITDA
€M
-6.62
-8.05
13.0
11.8
Funds from operations (FFO)
€M
-6.41
-5.32
8.80
7.59
Ordinary shareholders' equity
€M
0.62
-4.71
4.09
11.7
Gross debt
€M
0.01
1.00
0.50
70.0
o/w Less than 1 year - Gross debt
€M
0.01
1.00
0.50
70.0
o/w 1 to 5 year - Gross debt
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+2
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+3
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+4
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Y+5
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
o/w Beyond 5 years - Gross debt
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
+ Gross Cash
€M
4.02
1.14
9.46
86.6
= Net debt / (cash)
€M
-4.01
-0.14
-8.96
-16.6
Bank borrowings
€M
0.01
1.00
0.50
70.0
Issued bonds
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Financial leases liabilities
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mortgages
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other financing
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Gearing (at book value)
%
-670
-111
-109
Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R)
x
0.61
0.02
-0.69
-1.40
Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDA(R)
x
-0.03
-0.15
0.05
5.93
Adj. gross debt/(Adj. gross debt+Equity)
%
22.5
-33.1
14.1
85.7
Ebit cover
x
-19.8
80.5
-130
23.6
FFO/Gross Debt
%
-3,548
-455
1,311
10.8
FFO/Net debt
%
160
3,678
-98.2
-45.8
FCF/Adj. gross debt (%)
%
-3,960
-330
1,314
10.8
(Gross cash+ "cash" FCF+undrawn)/ST debt
x
-329
-2.72
36.6
1.35
"Cash" FCF/ST debt
x
-729
-3.86
17.6
0.11
ROE Analysis (Dupont's Breakdown)
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
%
-22,295
-805,340
72.0
48.3
Assets rotation (Sales/Avg assets)
%
3.56
0.39
-3,723
-4,787
Financial leverage (Avg assets /Avg equity)
x
0.92
-0.13
1.57
-0.06
ROE
%
-766
261
-2,850
96.3
ROA
%
-955
1,049
-1,646
-1,446
Tax burden (Net income/pretax pre excp income)
x
EBIT margin (EBIT/sales)
Shareholder's Equity Review (Group Share)
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
€M
1.36
0.67
-4.71
4.09
+ Net profit of year
€M
-6.99
-5.33
8.79
7.59
- Dividends (parent cy)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
+ Additions to equity
€M
6.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
- Unrecognised actuarial gains/(losses)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
+ Comprehensive income recognition
€M
-0.04
0.00
0.00
= Year end shareholders' equity
€M
-4.71
4.09
11.7
Y-1 shareholders' equity
o/w reduction (addition) to treasury shares
October 15 2014
0.67
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 17
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Staffing Analytics
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Sales per staff
€th
1.57
0.05
952
1,287
Staff costs per employee
€th
-134
-64.5
-66.1
-67.7
Change in staff costs
%
1.68
-51.9
2.49
2.49
Change in unit cost of staff
%
7.03
-51.9
2.49
2.49
Staff costs/(EBITDA+Staff costs)
%
-62.6
-18.0
8.79
9.81
Average workforce
unit
19.0
19.0
19.0
19.0
Europe
unit
21.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
North America
unit
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South Americas
unit
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Asia
unit
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other key countries
unit
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total staff costs
€M
-2.55
-1.23
-1.26
-1.29
Wages and salaries
€M
-2.55
-1.23
-1.26
-1.29
€M
-0.71
-0.41
-0.42
-0.43
Equity linked payments
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pension related costs
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
of which social security contributions
Divisional Breakdown Of Revenues
IFN-K
€M
0.00
0.00
15.6
18.5
TNF-K
€M
0.00
0.00
2.50
6.00
Other
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total sales
€M
0.00
0.00
18.1
24.5
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Divisional Breakdown Of Earnings
EBIT Analysis
TNF-K
€M
-6.41
-7.65
12.4
11.2
IFN-K
€M
-0.34
-0.40
0.65
0.59
Other/cancellations
€M
Total
€M
-6.75
-8.05
13.0
11.8
EBIT margin
%
ns
ns
72.0
48.3
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
100
100
Revenue Breakdown By Country
Other
%
Capital Employed
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
ROCE (NOPAT+lease exp.*(1-tax))/(net) cap employed adjusted
%
-669
734
-1,152
-1,012
Goodwill
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
€M
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.07
Financial hedges (LT derivatives)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Capitalised R&D
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
PV of non-capitalised lease obligations
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other fixed assets
€M
0.09
0.12
0.14
0.17
€M
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.30
Capital employed before depreciation
€M
1.05
-0.41
-0.43
-0.45
WCR
€M
0.59
-0.90
-0.94
-0.99
Other assets
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Unrecognised actuarial losses/(gains)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Capital employed after deprec. (Invested capital)
€M
0.70
-0.77
-0.79
-0.82
Accumulated goodwill amortisation
All intangible assets
Accumulated intangible amortisation
Accumulated depreciation
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 18
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Financials
Divisional Breakdown Of Capital
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
TNF-K
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
IFN-K
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other
€M
0.70
-0.77
-0.79
-0.82
Total capital employed
€M
0.70
-0.77
-0.79
-0.82
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 19
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Pension Risks
Pension matters
The headcount is stable at c.20 people. Pension commitments are not subject to provisions and are included in the contingent
liabilities for €35k.
Summary Of Pension Risks
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Pension ratio
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ordinary shareholders' equity
€M
0.62
-4.71
4.09
11.7
Total benefits provisions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which funded pensions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which unfunded pensions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which benefits / health care
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Unrecognised actuarial (gains)/losses
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Company discount rate
%
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
Normalised recomputed discount rate
%
Company future salary increase
%
3.00
3.00
Normalised recomputed future salary increase
%
Company expected rate of return on plan assets
%
4.80
4.80
Normalised recomputed expd rate of return on plan assets
%
4.83
Funded : Impact of actuarial assumptions
€M
0.00
Unfunded : Impact of actuarial assumptions
€M
0.00
Geographic Breakdown Of Pension Liabilities
4.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
4.80
4.80
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
US exposure
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
UK exposure
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Euro exposure
%
100
100
100
100
Nordic countries
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Switzerland
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other
%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total
%
100
100
100
100
Balance Sheet Implications
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Funded status surplus / (deficit)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Unfunded status surplus / (deficit)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total surplus / (deficit)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total unrecognised actuarial (gains)/losses
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Provision (B/S) on funded pension
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Provision (B/S) on unfunded pension
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other benefits (health care) provision
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total benefit provisions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
P&L Implications
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Funded obligations periodic costs
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Unfunded obligations periodic costs
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total periodic costs
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which incl. in labour costs
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which incl. in interest expenses
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 20
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Pension Risks
Funded Obligations
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Interest expense
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Employees' contributions
€M
Impact of change in actuarial assumptions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which impact of change in discount rate
€M
0.00
of which impact of change in salary increase
€M
0.00
Balance beginning of period
€M
Current service cost
Changes to scope of consolidation
€M
Currency translation effects
€M
Pension payments
€M
Other
€M
Year end obligation
€M
Plan Assets
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
Value at beginning
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Company expected return on plan assets
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Actuarial gain /(loss)
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Employer's contribution
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Employees' contributions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Changes to scope of consolidation
€M
Currency translation effects
€M
Pension payments
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Other
€M
Value end of period
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Actual and normalised future return on plan assets
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12/13A
12/14E
12/15E
12/16E
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Unfunded Obligations
Balance beginning of period
€M
Current service cost
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Interest expense
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Employees' contributions
€M
Impact of change in actuarial assumptions
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
of which Impact of change in discount rate
€M
0.00
of which Impact of change in salary increase
€M
0.00
0.00
0.00
Changes to scope of consolidation
€M
Currency translation effects
€M
Pension payments
€M
Other
€M
Year end obligation
€M
October 15 2014
0.00
0.00
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 21
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Governance & Management
Governance parameters
Existing committees
Yes
Weighting
20%
/ No
One share, one vote
Audit / Governance Committee
Compensation committee
Chairman vs. Executive split
5%
Financial Statements Committee
Chairman not ex executive
5%
Litigation Committee
Independent directors equals or above 50% of total directors
Full disclosure on mgt pay (performance related bonuses, pensions and non
financial benefits)
Disclosure of performance anchor for bonus trigger
20%
Nomination Committee
Safety committee
10%
SRI / Environment
15%
Compensation committee reporting to board of directors
5%
Straightforward, clean by-laws
20%
Governance score
60
100%
Management
Name
Miguel SIELER
M
Function
Birth date
Date in
CEO
1950
2013
Date out
Compensation, in k€ (year)
Cash
Equity linked
34.9 (2013)
Board of Directors
Name
Indep. Function
Completion
Birth
of current
date
mandate
1939
2003
0.00 (2013)
1957
2010
10.0 (2013)
Date in
Date out
Fees / indemnity,
in k€ (year)
Jean-Jacques BERTRAND
M
President/Chairman of th...
Michel FINANCE
M
Member
Edmond ALPHANDERY
M
Member
2017
1943
2011
11.0 (2013)
Arlene MORRIS
M
Member
2017
1951
2011
11.0 (2013)
Patrick VALROFF
M
Member
2017
1949
2011
12.0 (2013)
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Value of holding,
in k€ (year)
Page 22
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Governance & Management
Human Resources
Accidents at work
25% Of H.R. Score
Human resources development
35% Of H.R. Score
Pay
20% Of H.R. Score
Job satisfaction
10% Of H.R. Score
Internal communication
10% Of H.R. Score
HR Breakdown
Yes
Accidents at work
/ No
25%
Set targets for work safety on all group sites?
40%
Are accidents at work declining?
60%
Human resources development
35%
Rating
25/100
10/100
15/100
32/100
Are competences required to meet medium term targets identified?
10%
4/100
Is there a medium term (2 to 5 years) recruitment plan?
10%
0/100
Is there a training strategy tuned to the company objectives?
10%
4/100
Are employees trained for tomorrow's objectives?
10%
4/100
Can all employees have access to training?
10%
4/100
Has the corporate avoided large restructuring lay-offs over the last year to date?
10%
4/100
Have key competences stayed?
10%
4/100
Are managers given managerial objectives?
10%
4/100
If yes, are managerial results a deciding factor when assessing compensation level?
10%
4/100
Is mobility encouraged between operating units of the group?
10%
Pay
20%
4/100
20/100
Is there a compensation committee?
30%
6/100
Is employees' performance combining group performance AND individual performance?
70%
14/100
Job satisfaction
10%
10/100
Is there a measure of job satisfaction?
33%
3/100
Can anyone participate ?
34%
3/100
Are there action plans to prop up employees' morale?
33%
Internal communication
10%
Are strategy and objectives made available to every employee?
3/100
10/100
100%
Human Ressources score:
10/100
97/100
HR Score
H.R. Score : 9.7/10
October 15 2014
Pharma
Neovacs
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 23
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Graphics
Momentum
: Strong momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall positive moving average trend confirmed by volumes
: Relatively good momentum corresponding to a positively-oriented moving average, but offset by an overbought pattern or lack of confirmation
from volumes
: Relatively unfavorable momentum with a neutral or negative moving average trend, but offset by an oversold pattern or lack of confirmation from
volumes
: Strongly negative momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall negative moving average trend confirmed by volumes
Momentum analysis consists in evaluating the stock market trend of a given financial instrument, based on the analysis of its trading flows.
The main indicators used in our momentum tool are simple moving averages over three time frames: short term (20 trading days), medium term (50 days)
and long term (150 days). The positioning of these moving averages relative to each other gives us the direction of the flows over these time frames.
For example, if the short and medium-term moving averages are above the long-term moving average, this suggests an uptrend which will need to be
confirmed. Attention is also paid to the latest stock price relative to the three moving averages (advance indicator) as well as to the trend in these three
moving averages - downtrend, neutral, uptrend - which is more of a lagging indicator.
The trend indications derived from the flows through moving averages and stock prices must be confirmed against trading volumes in order to confirm the
signal. This is provided by a calculation based on the average increase in volumes over ten weeks together with a buy/sell volume ratio.
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 24
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Graphics
Moving Average MACD & Volume
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 25
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Graphics
Sector Pharma
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 26
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Methodology
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 27
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Methodology
Fundamental Opinion
It is implicit that recommendations are made in good faith but should not be regarded as the sole source of advice.
Recommendations are geared to a “value” approach.
Valuations are computed from the point of view of a secondary market minority holder looking at a medium term (say 6 months) performance.
Valuation tools are built around the concepts of transparency, all underlying figures are accessible, and consistency, same methodology whichever the
stock, allowing for differences in nature between financial and non financial stocks. A stock with a target price below its current price should not and will not
be regarded as an Add or a Buy.
Recommendations are based on target prices with no allowance for dividend returns. The thresholds for the four recommendation levels may change from
time to time depending on market conditions. Thresholds are defined as follows, ASSUMING long risk free rates remain in the 2-5% region.
Buy
Low Volatility
Normal Volatility
High Volatility
(10-30)
(15-35)
(above 35)
More than 15% upsideMore than 20% upsideMore than 30% upside
Add
From 5% to 15%
From 5% to 20%
From 10% to 30%
Reduce
From -10% to 5%
From -10% to 5%
From -10% to 10%
Sell
Below -10%
Below -10%
Below -10%
Recommendation
There is deliberately no “neutral” recommendation. The principle is that there is no point investing in equities if the return is not at least the risk free rate (and
the dividend yield which again is not allowed for).
Although recommendations are automated (a function of the target price whenever a new equity research report is released), the management of AlphaValue
intends to maintain global consistency within its universe coverage and may, from time to time, decide to change global parameters which may affect the
level of recommendation definitions and /or the distribution of recommendations within the four levels above. For instance, lowering the risk premium in a
gloomy context may increase the proportion of positive recommendations.
Valuation
Valuation processes have been organized around transparency and consistency as primary objectives.
Stocks belong to different categories that recognise their main operating features : Banks, Insurers and Non Financials.
Within those three universes, the valuation techniques are the same and in relation to the financial data available.
The weighting given to individual valuation techniques is managed centrally and may be changed from time to time. As a rule, all stocks of a similar profile
are valued using equivalent weighting of the various valuation techniques. This is for obvious consistency reasons.
Within the very large universe of Non Financials, there are in effect 4 sub-categories of weightings to cater for subsets: 1) 'Mainstream' stocks; 2) 'Holding
companies' where the stress is on NAV measures; 3) 'Growth' companies where the stress is on peer based valuations; 4) 'Loss making sectors' where
peers review is essentially pointing nowhere. The bulk of the valuation is then built on DCF and NAV, in effect pushing back the time horizon.
Valuation Issue
Normal
Growth
industrials industrials
Holding Loss
company runners
Bank
Insurers
DCF
35%
35%
10%
40%
0%
0%
NAV
20%
20%
55%
40%
25%
15%
PE
10%
10%
10%
5%
10%
20%
EV/EBITDA
20%
20%
0%
5%
0%
0%
Yield
10%
10%
20%
5%
15%
15%
P/Book
5%
5%
5%
5%
15%
10%
Banks' instrinsic method
0%
0%
0%
0%
25%
0%
Embedded Value
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
40%
Mkt Cap/Gross Operating Profit
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
Typical sectors
Bio Techs
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 28
ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES
Neovacs
(Buy)
Biotech / France
Methodology
Important Warning
Above comments are solely aimed at institutional and other professional investors. They are designed to complement services made available by
subscription only to AlphaValue via www.alphavalue.com . Above comments may only make sense in connection with an access to AlphaValue on line
equity research
October 15 2014
Copyright AlphaValue - 2014 – www.alphavalue.com
Page 29