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2. investing
3. stocks

15 October 2014
Singapore Exchange Limited
Strong derivatives volume marred by record
Rating:
low SDAV
(Upgraded from Neutral)
SINGAPORE | INVESTMENT SERVICES | UPDATE

Securities Daily Average Value (SDAV) hit a historical all-time low of
S$0.97b for 1Q15, a decrease of 14% q-q and 27% y-y based on SGX figures.
We are seeing yet another quarter of supressed trade volumes and we
believe this will continue to stretch into a seasonally weak 2Q.

Factoring in 1Q15’s lower SDAV, we trimmed our FY15 forecasted SDAV,
leading us to revise our FY15 EPS downwards slightly.

Derivatives business had a strong quarter with Derivatives Daily Average
Volume (DDAV) growing 9.4% q-q to 0.45 million contracts and 7.7% y-y.
This was led by exceptional volumes from the FTSE China A50 contracts
which saw a 60.5% growth q-q and more than twice the volume y-y.

In the long run, we are still encouraged by the structural changes being
introduced, namely the MM and LP programmes and board lot size
reduction, helping to stimulate growth in trade volumes and improving
liquidity.

Upgrade to “Accumulate” with revised TP of S$7.30, based on slightly
revised EPS and PE multiple of 23X FY15 earnings
What is the news?
SGX Ltd will be announcing its 1Q15 results on 21 Oct 2014. Based on monthly
statistics recently released by SGX, 1Q15’s SDAV declined 14% q-q to S$0.97
billion. DDAV grew in 1Q15, increasing 9.4% q-q to 0.45 million contracts.
0.89
Market Cap. (USD mn / SGD mn)
5755 / 7336
3M Average Daily T/O (mn)
1.3
Closing Px in 52 week range 6.66
7.48
0%
50%
100%
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
20
15
10
5
0
Volume, mn
SGX SP EQUITY
Major Shareholders
1. SEL Hol di ngs Pte Ltd
2. Ja pa n Excha nge Group Inc
3. Va ngua rd Group Inc
Valuation Method
P/E Mul ti pl e
Analyst
Benjamin Ong
benja mi nongcw@phi l l i p.com.s g
+65 65311535
Oct-14
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data)
Jul-14
We trim our FY15/FY16 EPS estimates slightly by 3%/5%. Dividend yield is
currently attractive at 4.4%. Based on a multiple of 23X FY15 earnings, our
target price is revised to S$7.30 and we upgrade our rating to “Accumulate”.
Company Data
Apr-14
Investment Actions?
7.30
0.30
6.85
10.9%
Company Description
SGX Ltd opera tes a s a n i ntegra ted s ecuri ti es
a nd deri va ti ves excha nge i n Si nga pore.
Securi ty products i ncl ude equi ti es , bonds ,
excha nge tra ded funds , wa rra nts , a nd ADRs .
Deri va ti ves products i ncl ude futures a nd
opti ons , s tructured wa rra nts , a nd extended
s ettl ements .
Jan-14
Depressed securities activity levels continue to pose as a near-term drag for
SGX. A weak start to FY15 and an upcoming seasonally weaker 2Q has led us to
trim our FY15 projected SDAV. The Derivatives business remains a bright spark
and key growth driver in the medium to long term and we estimate derivatives
revenue could overtake securities revenue this year. Key re-rating catalyst will
be a sustained pick-up in market volumes from external macro drivers and the
success of the SGX introduced measures for boosting liquidity, IPOs and take-off
of new derivatives products launched.
Target Price (SGD)
Forecast Dividend (SGD)
Closing Price (SGD)
Potential Upside
Oct-13
How do we view this?
We expect Securities Revenue to decline as SDAV has dipped by 14% q-q but
the impact should be cushioned by higher average clearing fees with the
removal of capped trades (S$600). Derivatives Revenue should be stronger this
quarter with the 9.4% q-q growth in DDAV. This was a record quarter for the
FTSE China A50 Index Futures (+60.5%) which was the main driver for overall
volume expansion. The A50 contracts now constitute 41% of total equity index
futures volume as compared to 29% in the previous quarter. We also note that
albeit the minimal impact on overall derivatives revenue, forex futures volume
are gradually taking off, especially so for the INR/USD futures (5X q-q). With
RMB forex futures coming in as well (20 Oct 14), it could be a sound compliment
to RMB-denominated investment products. Listing revenue will be another
positive this quarter given the stronger pipeline of IPOs (S$1.9b raised in 1Q15),
which will help to alleviate the weaker securities revenue.
Accumulate
STI rebased
(%)
23.4
4.96
1.72
15 October 2014
Key Financial Summary
FYE
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15F FY16F
Revenue (SGD mn)
648
715
687
738
791
NPAT, a dj. (SGD mn)
304
351
320
338
379
EPS, a dj. (SGD)
0.28
0.33
0.30
0.32
0.35
P/E (X),a dj.
24.9
24.1
22.9
21.7
19.3
BVPS (SGD)
0.78
0.83
0.86
0.90
0.94
P/B (X)
8.7
9.1
8.0
7.6
7.3
DPS (SGD)
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.30
0.33
Di v. Yi el d (%)
4.0%
3.7%
4.1%
4.4%
4.8%
Source: Bl oomberg, PSR es t.
*Forwa rd mul ti pl es a nd yi el ds a re ba s ed on current pri ce a nd hi s tori ca l
mul ti pl es a nd yi el ds a re ba s ed on hi s tori ca l pri ce
Fig: Equity Index Futures Contracts volume ('000 contracts)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
FTSE China A50 Index Futures
MSCI Taiwan Index Futures
SGX S&P CNX Nifty Index Futures
Others
Nikkei 225 Index Futures
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
Source: Company, PSR
FTSE China A50 Index Futures
3%
18%
MSCI Taiwan Index Futures
40%
Nikkei 225 Index Futures
22%
SGX S&P CNX Nifty Index
Futures
17%
Others
Source: Company, PSR
Fig. Rev by segment (%) vs Total Operating rev ($’000)
Securities
Derivatives
Market data
Membe r s vc
Dep ository s vc
Iss uer se rvices
Oth er revenu e
23%
25%
25%
28%
28%
28%
28%
29%
28%
32%
32%
30%
41%
37%
40%
35%
37%
36%
40%
38%
38%
32%
32%
31%
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
15 October 2014
Fig 1. Securities Revenue
Fig 2. Derivatives Revenue
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
2Q12
Fig 3. Market Data Revenue
-
1Q12
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Fig 4. Member services and connectivity
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
2Q12
Fig 5. Depository services
1Q12
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
9
Fig 6. Issuer services
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
Fig 8. Total revenue
Securities
250
Market data
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
150
100
50
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
Member svc
3Q12
Market data
2Q12
Deri vatives
1Q12
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
0
Fig 9. Total revenue - Less Securities
140
Deri vatives
200
1Q12
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2Q12
Fig 7. Other revenue
1Q12
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
-
3Q12
-
2Q12
5
1Q12
5
Fig 10. Total revenue - Less Securities and Derivatives
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
80
Market data
Member svc
Depository svc
Issuer services
Other revenue
120
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
3Q13
0
2Q13
0
1Q13
20
4Q12
40
20
3Q12
40
2Q12
60
80
60
1Q12
100
15 October 2014
Fig 11. Operating Revenue and NPAT
250
Fig 12. SDAV ($ M ) vs Price
Ops rev ('000)
NPAT
200
150
100
50
8.00
Price (RHS)
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
06 Oct
16 Sep
27 Aug
07 Aug
18 Jul
Fig 13. 1/2 Yr Price Earnings Ratio (TTM)
SDAV
28 Jun
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
-
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Fig 14. 5 yr Price Earnings Ratio (TTM)
25
40
24
SD + 1
Mea n
23
22
23.97
35
23.24
22.87
22.50
30
SD + 1
20
SD - 1
Oct 14
May 14
Dec 13
Aug 13
Mar 13
Nov 12
Jun 12
Jan 12
Sep 11
Apr 11
Dec 10
Jul 10
Mar 10
Oct 09
Oct 14
Sep 14
Aug 14
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
Jul 14
Jun 14
10
May 14
15
20
Apr 14
21
28.00
25.20
22.94
22.40
Mea n
25
15 October 2014
For Financial Summary at the end of report
FYE
Income Statement (SGD mn)
Securi ties
Deri va tives
Others
Operating revenue
Opera ting expens es
Operating profit
Other ga i ns /(l os s es )
As s oci a tes & JVs
Profit Before Tax
Ta xa tion
Net Income, reported
Net Income, adj.
FYE
Per share data (SGD)
EPS, reported
EPS, a dj.
DPS
BVPS
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15F FY16F
248
163
236
648
284
364
(6)
(3)
355
(64)
292
304
270
201
245
715
301
414
(10)
4
408
(72)
336
351
227
209
251
687
315
372
5
2
379
(59)
320
320
FY12
0.27
0.28
0.27
0.78
FY13
0.31
0.33
0.28
0.83
FY14
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.86
233
246
259
738
336
401
5
3
409
(71)
338
338
256
268
267
791
340
451
5
3
459
(80)
379
379
FY15F FY16F
0.32
0.32
0.30
0.90
FY12
FYE
Valuation Ratios
P/E (X), a dj.
P/B (X)
Di vi dend Yi el d (%)
Growth & Margins (%)
Growth
Securi ties Revenue
Deri va tives Revenue
Revenue
Net Income, a dj.
Margins
Net profi t ma rgi n
Core profi t ma gi n
Key Ratios
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Di vi dend Pa yout ra tio
Cos t to Income
FY12
26
119
66
6
217
779
698
35
1,512
1,729
796
78
874
22
896
833
FY13
24
112
51
28
215
757
763
60
1,580
1,794
783
100
884
22
906
889
FY14
61
112
51
28
252
572
757
60
1,389
1,641
616
83
699
20
719
922
FY15F FY16F
12
116
52
33
214
899
787
60
1,746
1,960
854
115
969
21
991
969
10
110
54
36
210
949
823
60
1,833
2,043
902
115
1,017
21
1,039
1,004
0.35
0.35
0.33
0.94
FYE
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F
Cashflow Statements (SGD mn)
CFO
PBT
355
408
379
409
459
Adjus tments
53
56
50
43
63
WC cha nges
(9)
6
5
(88)
(3)
Ca s h genera ted from ops
399
470
433
364
519
Ta xes pa i d, net
(57)
(52)
(75)
(71)
(80)
Cashflow from ops
342
419
359
293
440
CFI
CAPEX, net
(51)
(28)
(72)
(50)
(64)
Others
6
(12)
7
0
0
Cashflow from investments
(45)
(40)
(65)
(50)
(64)
CFF
Di vi dends
(288) (289) (300) (297) (346)
Others
(5)
(25)
0
0
0
Cashflow from financing
(293) (314) (300) (297) (346)
Net change in cash
5
65
(6)
(54)
30
CCE, end
548
613
607
552
583
Source: Compa ny Da ta, PSR es t
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
FYE
Balance Sheet (SGD mn)
PPE
Softwa re
AFS i nves tments
Others
Total non-current assets
Recei va bl es
Ca s h
Others
Total current assets
Total Assets
Pa ya bl es
Others
Total current liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholder Equity
24.9
8.7
4.0%
FY13
24.1
9.1
3.7%
FY14
22.9
8.0
4.1%
FY15F FY16F
21.7
7.6
4.4%
19.3
7.3
4.8%
-14.0% 8.5% -15.9% 2.8% 9.8%
15.0% 23.1% 3.9% 17.7% 9.2%
-1.9% 10.4% -4.0% 7.4% 7.2%
-2.5% 15.5% -8.7% 5.4% 12.3%
44.6% 46.6% 46.3% 45.5% 47.7%
46.5% 48.7% 46.3% 45.5% 47.7%
36.7% 40.8% 35.4% 35.7% 38.5%
16.7% 19.9% 18.7% 18.8% 19.0%
99%
89%
93%
95%
93%
43.8% 42.1% 45.9% 45.6% 42.9%
15 October 2014
Ratings History
Market Price
Target Price
9.00
8.50
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
1
2
3
4
5
PSR Rating System
Total Returns
Recommendation Rating
> +20%
Buy
1
+5% to +20%
Accumul a te
2
-5% to +5%
Neutra l
3
-5% to -20%
Reduce
4
< -20%
Sel l
5
Remarks
We do not ba s e our recommenda tions entirel y on the a bove qua ntita tive
return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i ta tive fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's
ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s entiment, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a tion,
pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca ta l ys ts , a nd s pecul a tive undertones
s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda tion
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
15 October 2014
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MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159
15 October 2014
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Kuala Lumpur
Tel +603 2162 8841
Fax +603 2166 5099
Website: www.poems.com.my
+65 6531 1221
SINGAPORE
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd
Raffles City Tower
250, North Bridge Road #06-00
Singapore 179101
Tel +65 6533 6001
Fax +65 6535 6631
Website: www.poems.com.sg
US Equities
Wong Yong Kai
+65 6531 1685
+65 6531 1792
HONG KONG
Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
11/F United Centre 95 Queensway
Hong Kong
Tel +852 2277 6600
Fax +852 2868 5307
Websites: www.phillip.com.hk
JAPAN
Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd.
4-2 Nihonbashi Kabuto-cho Chuo-ku,
Tokyo 103-0026
Tel +81-3 3666 2101
Fax +81-3 3666 6090
Website: www.phillip.co.jp
INDONESIA
PT Phillip Securities Indonesia
ANZ Tower Level 23B,
Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A
Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia
Tel +62-21 5790 0800
Fax +62-21 5790 0809
Website: www.phillip.co.id
CHINA
Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co Ltd
No 550 Yan An East Road,
Ocean Tower Unit 2318,
Postal code 200001
Tel +86-21 5169 9200
Fax +86-21 6351 2940
Website: www.phillip.com.cn
THAILAND
Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd
15th Floor, Vorawat Building,
849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak,
Bangkok 10500 Thailand
Tel +66-2 6351700 / 22680999
Fax +66-2 22680921
Website www.phillip.co.th
FRANCE
King & Shaxson Capital Limited
3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008
Paris France
Tel +33-1 45633100
Fax +33-1 45636017
Website: www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED KINGDOM
King & Shaxson Capital Limited
6th Floor, Candlewick House,
120 Cannon Street,
London, EC4N 6AS
Tel +44-20 7426 5950
Fax +44-20 7626 1757
Website: www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED STATES
Phillip Futures Inc
141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050
The Chicago Board of Trade Building
Chicago, IL 60604 USA
Tel +1-312 356 9000
Fax +1-312 356 9005
Website: www.phillipusa.com
AUSTRALIA
Phillip Capital Limited
Level 12, 15 William Street,
Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
Tel +61-03 9629 8288
Fax +61-03 9629 8882
Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au
SRI LANKA
Asha Phillip Securities Limited
No-10 Prince Alfred Tower,
Alfred House Gardens,
Colombo 03, Sri Lanka
Tel: (94) 11 2429 100
Fax: (94) 11 2429 199
Website: www.ashaphillip.net
TURKEY
PhillipCapital Menkul Degerler
Dr. Cemil Bengü Cad. Hak Is Merkezi
No. 2 Kat. 6A Caglayan
34403 Istanbul, Turkey
Tel: 0212 296 84 84
Fax: 0212 233 69 29
Website: www.phillipcapital.com.tr
DUBAI
Phillip Futures DMCC
Member of the Dubai Gold and
Commodities Exchange (DGCX)
Unit No 601, Plot No 58, White Crown Bldg,
Sheikh Zayed Road, P.O.Box 212291
Dubai-UAE
Tel: +971-4-3325052 / Fax: + 971-4-3328895
Website: www.phillipcapital.in
INDIA
PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited
No.1, 18th Floor
Urmi Estate
95, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg
Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400-013
Maharashtra, India
Tel: +91-22-2300 2999 / Fax: +91-22-2300 2969
Website: www.phillipcapital.in
MCI (P) 046/11/2013
Ref. No.: SG2014_0159