Engineering Services Market study 2014

Engineering
Services
Market study
2014
Contents
Page
Management summary
3
A. Technology trends and their impact on engineering service provider
4
B. The market of engineering services
15
C. Authors
26
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may
not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness
and accuracy of the statements made in this document.
© Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH
2
Management summary
> Automotive OEMs have to deal with an all-time high of technology complexity, driving engineering spend
and creating the necessity to have a clearly defined strategy regarding core competences and
outsourcing of engineering services
> Three areas see a dramatically increasing demand for ESO skills and capacity:
– Powertrain and powertrain electrification as driven by CO2 emissions regulations in Europe and
China
– Weight reduction technologies as driven in the same context, especially on the European market
– Connectivity and IVI-related engineering services as especially driven by customers' "always on"
attitude
> In total, the global automotive ESO market is forecast to grow by 5% to 6% p.a. until 2020, totaling at
approx. EUR 16.5 bn – growth is mainly driven by Chinese market while slowing down in Europe
> Highest share of outsourced work in Europe (approx. 30%) in E/E, also incl. connectivity/In-VehicleInfotainment, in China around power train/powertrain electrification (approx. 25%)
> For ESPs, the main challenge will be to have a best-cost-country footprint (e.g. with a hub in China or
India) in order to stay competitive in terms of their cost structure and to develop specialized know-how in
the growing ESO areas
Source: Roland Berger
3
A. Technology trends
and their impact on
engineering service
provider
4
Major trends – overview
Three mega trends reshape the automotive industry – the regarding
domains have strong impact on the future ESP landscape
Mega trends in the automotive industry
CO2 reduction
> Oil scarcity and dependency as well
as global warming as initiators
> Efforts to increase fuel efficiency enforced by
government regulations (penalties or incentives)
and growing environmental awareness
> Increasing importance as buying criterion
ESP-relevant domains
A
Powertrain
electrification
B
Lightweight
C
In-Vehicle
Infotainment
(IVI)/Connectivity
Comfort/mobile web
> Growing wealth/age and increasing time spent
in vehicle as initiators
> Expectations for "living room atmosphere" and
"always on" attitude getting more and more
important, also as differentiator for OEMs
> One of the key buying criteria
Source: Roland Berger
5
A Powertrain electrification – regional specifics
xEV markets EU and China are primarily legislation-driven –
USA primarily driven by customer pull
Push and pull factors xEVs
Pull
Push
EU
China
USA
> Even under optimistic assumptions
regarding ICE improvements and lightweight measures, all OEMs will need
xEVs
> xEV share depends on CO2 emissions
regulations (weight-based vs. constant
target)
> From a cost perspective, light hybrid and
PHEVs are most favorable
> Technology penetration is only driven by
government targets for PHEVs and EVs
> Segments fuel consumption targets can
be met by optimized ICE in all segments
> Fleet emissions are possible, but there
is no clear indication yet
> However, if fleet emissions apply, high
xEV penetration to be expected
> CAFE emissions targets can be met by
utilizing ICE improvements and some
weight reduction technology
> In relation to costs, OEMs also have no
incentive to apply xEV technologies on a
large scale
> However, ZEV mandate and the ability
to earn credits will lead OEMs to build
some PHEVs and EVs
> No TCO advantage for FHEV, PHEV,
BEV powertrains
> Light hybrids will become TCO neutral,
but will enable additional functions
> In larger cars, there will be customer
willingness to pay for stronger hybrids
> Only niche demand for BEVs
> Almost no customer pull for xEVs –
except for the luxury segment
> Light and full hybrids would offer significant consumption advantages, but TCO
advantage is limited due to low fuel cost
> No willingness to pay for "green" image
– in luxury segment, innovativeness of
xEVs is an important purchase criterion
for customers
> No TCO advantage for xEV powertrains
due to low fuel costs
> However, some customers are willing to
pay for xEVs for environmental image
reasons
Source: Roland Berger
6
A Powertrain electrification – regional specifics
In a conservative scenario, xEVs only represent a minor share of
total powertrain in WE, NA and China in 2020
Share of powertrain technologies in major markets in 2020
Western Europe
Japan/Korea
3%
2%
6%
1%
1%
EV: 0.4 m
PHEV: 1.2 m
∑ 20.5 m
EV: 0.2 m
PHEV: 0.7 m
21%
∑ 18.2 m
PHEV
Source: Roland Berger
0%
China
2%
4% 1%
4% 6%
Full hybrid
∑ 30.4 m
EV: 0.3 m
PHEV: 0.7 m
23%
53%
BEV
> Improved ICEs as dominating concept
by 2020, with conventional start/stop
more or less standard in WE and JP/KR
– electrification of powertrain at lower
speed compared to historic forecasts
15%
65%
North America
31%
∑ 12.4 m
6%
66%
EV: 0.3 m
PHEV: 0.7 m
2%
6% 6%
> Technologies share estimates taking
push and pull factors into account –
conservative scenario shown
> Introduction of 48V micro systems
significantly gaining share by 2020
(particularly in Europe), outperforming
traditional mild hybrid systems due to
cost advantages
> Hybridization expected to gain ground –
at regional differing speed
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
> Full EV vehicles still remaining niche in
2020 (e.g. ~500k units manufactured in
Europe in 2020)
70%
Mild hybrid
Micro (48V)
Conventional start/stop
ICE
7
A Powertrain electrification – regional specifics – Europe
EU Commission proposes weight-dependent OEM-specific CO2
emissions target – same CO2 reductions are required in all segments
OEM fleet CO2 emissions target 2021, EU [g/km]
CO2 emissions [g/km]
> 95 g CO2 per km is the target for the
2021 EU new car fleet, indicative range
2025: 68-78 g
175
150
> Vehicle weight is the underlying utility
parameter for OEM-specific targets –
the factor used is 0.0333
CO2 target 2015
130 g + (mOEM - mØ ) x 0.0457
> Credits for low-emission vehicles (<50
g): Between 2016 and 2023 every car
will be counted as 1.5 cars2)
-27%
125
> Eco innovations: As for the 2015
regulation, OEM can apply a maximum
of 7 g/km credit for the use of ‘innovative technologies’ which are not
covered by the test cycle – Will compensate higher CO2 emissions in WLTC
-27%
100
CO2 target 20211)
95 g + (mOEM - mØ ) x 0.0333
75
0
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Ø fleet weight [kg]
OEMs
20113)
1) EU Commission
2) Cap of 2.5 g per OEM and year
Source: Roland Berger CO2 Emission Market Model
3) Average fleet weight
8
A Powertrain electrification – regional specifics – Europe
All OEMs need to reduce their CO2 emissions by 25-30% until 2021
– French manufacturer profit from high Diesel share of their fleet
1)
-27%
-29%
101
2021
2012
2021
100
98
2012
2021
2021
2012
-29%
-29%
143
138
94
2012
-30%
-29%
138
132
2)
133
129
95
92
2012
2021
2012
2021
3)
-30%
-30%
133
131
93
2012
2021
1) Incl. Mini, Rolls-Royce
92
2012
2) Incl. Smart
-25%
-24%
2021
122
2012
93
2021
124
2012
-25%
93
2021
121
2012
-27%
91
2021
120
2012
88
2021
3) Incl. Alfa Romeo, Lancia
Source: Roland Berger CO2 Emission Market Model
9
A Powertrain electrification – regional specifics – China
By 2015, China is likely to tighten fuel economy standards – caps
can be met by advanced ICE technology in all curb weight classes
China's fuel economy standard
Permissible fuel consumption by curb weight class [l/100 km]
16
12
8
4
0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
XIII
XIV
XV
XVI
<0.75 <0.87 <0.98 <1.09 <1.21 <1.32 <1.43 <1.54 <1.66 <1.77 <1.88 <2.00 <2.11 <2.28 <2.51 >2.51
Curb weight [t]
Today - Manual
2015 - Manual
Today - Automatic or SUV/MPV
2015 - Automatic or SUV/MPV
Source: UNEP; Roland Berger
> Chinese fuel economy
standards limit fuel
consumption based on
vehicle curb weight
> Consumption caps are set for
16 weight classes in 2
categories:
– Vehicles with manual
transmission
– Vehicles with automatic
transmissions or
SUVs/MPVs
> Average fuel consumption is
determined using NEDCs
> Average fuel consumption is
to be 7 l/100 km by 2015
10
A Powertrain electrification – regional specifics – China
The introduction of a fleet emissions metric on top could be another
measure to trigger efficiency gains – no decision made yet
Potential China fleet emissions limits in comparison to EU limits
CO2 emission [g/km]
190
2008 (stage 2):
8.0 l/100 km
(184 g CO2/km)
185 g CO2/km
-14%
2015 (stage 3):
6.9 l/100 km
(159 g CO2/km)
180
170
177 g
CO2/km
160
150
140 g CO2/km
140
2008
130
130 g CO2/km
2020 (stage 4 forecast):
5.6 l/100 km
(130 g CO2/km) -27%
2025 (stage 5
forecast):
4.1 l/100 km
(95 g CO2/km)
2012
120
-19%
110
100
90
> China could also introduce
fleet emissions standard in
addition to category caps
> Though exact policy
formulation and penalties to
be imposed are still unclear,
standard is likely to put
international and luxury OEMs
at a disadvantage
> However, if a fleet emissions
metric is introduced, strong
xEV growth is expected due
to missing diesel technology
95 g
80
CO2/km
70
75 g CO2/km
60
1995
2000
2005
Source: FAW; Interviews; Roland Berger
2008
2010
2012
2015
2021
2025
11
B Lightweight – regional specifics
The importance of weight reduction technologies varies widely in the
different markets – in China not relevant yet
EU
China
USA
Regulations
> Importance of lightweight
depends on weight-based
CO2 emissions regulations
> Vehicle weight is the underlying utility parameter for
OEM-specific targets – the
heavier a car is, the more
CO2 emissions it can produce
> CO2 emissions regulations
are by no means related to
vehicle's weight
> Focus is only on electric drive
> CAFE emissions and fuel
consumption targets do not
differentiate between the
weight of vehicles
> Therefore, the fleet consumption of a manufacturer is
highly dependent on the
weight of each individual
model
Implications
> Weight reduction technologies will be applied as
additional measurement to
meet the CO2 emissions
regulation target, but with
focus on larger/premium
vehicles (lightweight design
for volume models)
> Weight reduction technologies do not play a major role
in Chinese car industry
> The concept is relatively new
to OEMs and just seen as a
future topic for R&D with
lower priority than xEV
> Weight reduction technologies can be used in order to
meet CAFE targets
> Weight reduction technologies are especially relevant
for SUVs and Trucks
Source: Roland Berger
12
C IVI/connectivity – general OEM directions
IVI solutions with medium to high OEM involvement and medium to
high sophistication provide highest opportunities for ESPs
Overview of global IVI solution scenarios
OEM IVI system development involvement1)
Level of IVI system sophistication
Low
Medium
High
4
> Ford/Lincoln: SYNC with MyFord
Touch/MyLincoln Touch
> Lexus: Enform
> Cadillac: CUE incl. navigation
3
>
>
>
>
>
Medium
2
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Renault: R-Link
Chinese/Indian manufacturer
SEAT Media System (v2.2)
Peugeot Connect Navigation
Citroen: MyWay
Mitsubishi: MMCS
Alfa Romeo: Uconnect
Fiat: Blue&Me
Low
1
>
>
>
>
>
>
MB: Drive Kit Plus MB
> Mercedes-Benz: Audio 20 (base for
Becker® MAP PILOT)
Chinese/Indian manufacturer
Skoda: Navigon – PID
> Volkswagen: RCD 510 (incl. mobile phone
connectivity)
Volkswagen: Navigon – PID
Daihatsu: Garmin satnav
> Ford: Sync without navigation
DACIA: Touchscreen navigation system
ESP-relevant scenarios
Source: Roland Berger
High
5
> Mercedes-Benz: Comand Online with
media interface (all classes)
> BMW: Connected Drive
> Audi: MMI and MMI touch with
connect
> Volkswagen: High-end navigation
system
Ford: SYNC with MyFord
Kia: Kia UVO
Hyundai: Hyundai Bluelink
Toyota: Entune
Volkswagen: Medium navigation
system
> Chrysler Uconnect
> Buick, GMC: Intellilink, plus navigation
1) Example OEM solutions
13
Opportunities for ESP can be found in all domains – specialized
know-how as necessity to benefit from automotive trends
Impact for engineering service providers
Powertrain
Electrification
> Increasing demand in powertrain-related engineering services, both conventional and (some)
hybrid
> With higher share of alternative propulsions and fuels (CNG, xEV) also opportunities for
related engineering services and component business (CNG tanks, battery packs, etc.).
> Sometimes complete engines, but also complete application developments are outsourced
Lightweight
> Demand for weight reduction technologies will increase, especially on the US and European
market
> Opportunities for engineering service provider can be divided into lightweight design and
specialized material/process know how:
– Advanced lightweight design and CAE capabilities for sporty volume models
– Specialized material and process know-how for hybrid and composite body structures, relevant
only for premium models
In-Vehicle
Infotainment/
Connectivity
> Demand for In-Vehicle Infotainment/Connectivity solutions will increase
> Most outsourced development activities are around software; esp. HMI and integration relevant
for ESPs
> With integration of connectivity boxes trend towards consolidation of supply base ("critical size")
Source: Roland Berger
14
B. The market of
engineering services
15
The market of engineering services is growing by 5-6% CAGR until
2020 – ESPs need to have a best-cost-country footprint
Summary market of engineering services
> The global automotive ESO market was estimated at approx. EUR 10.7 bn in 2012 – overall growth has
been slowing down
> Global passenger and light commercial vehicle production is forecast to increase about 4% p.a. until
2020
> Global automotive R&D expenditures are forecast to grow at approx. 6.7% p.a. until 2020 – outsourced
share is expected to slightly decrease
> The global automotive ESO market is forecast to grow by 5% to 6% p.a. until 2020, totaling at
approx. EUR 16.5 bn
> Body/Interior will remain the largest domain for ESO, but with a CAGR of 7.2%, E/E market will grow to
EUR ~4.5 bn by 2020
> ESPs need to clearly define their USP and have a best-cost-country footprint in order to stay competitive
on the ESP market
> Especially in Germany, OEMs need to ensure that they are able to outsource engineering services
effectively and ensure compliance
Source: Roland Berger
16
Historical ESO market development
R&D expenses have been steadily increasing since 2009 –
top-10 OEMs with approx. 75% share
R&D expenses automotive industry, 2009-2012 [EUR bn]1)
Overall development
Top-10 OEMs, 2012
CAGR
2009-2012
9.5%
50.3
6.9
VW Group
55.4
57.0
6.7
Toyota
5.6
GM
4.6
Honda
43.4
Daimler
4.2
Ford
4.2
Nissan
4.0
BMW
4.0
2.0
PSA
Renault
Total Top-10
2009
2010
2011
1.1
43.3
2012
1) Passenger Cars OEM – supplier account for approx. add. 40%
Source: Company data; interviews; Thomson Financials; Roland Berger
17
Historical ESO market development
The automotive ESO market was estimated at approx. EUR 10.7 bn
in 2012 – overall growth has been slowing down
Automotive ESO market by region, 2009-2012 [EUR bn]
CAGR 2009-12
8.9
9.7
10.7
10.4
7%
5.8
5.8
Europe1)
2%
1.2
1.3
China2)
18%
1.4
0.2
1.1
1.6
0.2
1.2
1.9
2.0
13%
0.2
1.3
0.3
1.4
NAFTA3)
India
RoW
2009
2010
2011
2012
5.4
0.8
1) Including Russia
5.6
1.1
2) Including HQ-developed models
9%
8%
> Overall ESO market size
approx. EUR 10.7 bn in
2012
> Europe as the largest
ESO market in the world
> China with highest
relative growth
> Overall growth of ESO
market is slowing down
"We are currently trying
to insource lost
competences in certain
technology fields"
European premium OEM
3) Including GME, Ford Europe
Source: Company data; interviews; IHS; Thomson Financials; Roland Berger
18
Market trends and drivers
The automotive ESO market is influenced by several trends and
market drivers
General automotive ESO market drivers and impact on outsourced volume
Trends and impact
EU
China
Importance
Interview insights
1
Number of models
and body types
The number of car models and body types
is expected to remain high or to slightly
increase, especially in China, which will
increase the R&D demand
2
Globalization of
OEM engineering
activities
An increasing number of global engineering
locations and growing needs to adapt to
local product requirements offer additional
opportunities for ESPs, especially in China
3
Cost pressure of
OEMs
Cost pressure of OEMs is generally passed
through to ESPs
> Vehicle features and performance
increases while share of customer
spending decreases
> Especially prices for expert-on-demand
may face some pressure
4
Engineering
capacities
Shortage of engineering capacity in
Germany is expected to further decrease
High importance
Source: Interviews; Roland Berger
Low importance
Positive impact
Neutral impact
"We have launched most
new segment models and
derivatives. Outsourced
engineering services will
therefore not further
increase"
German Premium OEM
"If we source locally (e.g.
in India), we will gradually
transfer the respective
engineering activities.
Similar we will outsource
some work locally"
German Premium OEM
Negative impact
19
Automotive production
Global passenger and light commercial vehicle production is
forecast to increase about 4% p.a. until 2020
Global production of PVs and LCVs by region, 2012-2020 [m units]
CAGR
2012-2020
3.9%
79
82
18
18
19
86
18
23
21
90
19
95
20
108
3.9%
23
Europe 3.0%
98
101
103
21
22
22
30
30
32
China
6.7%
25
27
28
20
20
19
20
20
NAFTA 1.7%
18
19
19
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
India
9.1%
22
22
22
23
24
24
25
26
27
RoW
2.6%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
17
Source: IHS; Roland Berger
> Highest absolute growth is expected in China: Production in China
is expected to grow from 19 m
units in 2012 to 32 m units in
2020
> Highest relative growth is expected in India: Production in India is
expected to grow at approx. 9.1%
p.a. from 2012-2020
> Overall growth rate is expected to
be about 4% p.a. from 2012 to
2020
20
Market forecast
Global automotive R&D expenditures are forecast to grow at c. 6.7%
p.a. until 2020 – outsourced share is expected to slightly decrease
Global automotive R&D expenses, 2012-2020 [EUR bn]
CAGR
2012-2020
57.0
10.7
62.7
11.4
66.8
12.1
71.6
12.9
46.3
51.3
54.7
58.7
2012
2013
2014
2015
75.4
13.1
79.6
13.7
83.5
14.4
89.5
15.4
62.3
65.9
69.1
74.1
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Company data; Interviews; IHS; Thomson Financials; Roland Berger
96.0
6.7%
16.5
5.6%
Outsourced
79.5
Captive 7.0%
OEM
2020
> Higher R&D share in emerging
markets and new technologies in
alternative propulsion, lightweight construction and E/E are
main drivers of increasing
automotive R&D expenses
> Own OEM engineering capacities
for key competences and knowhow are expected to remain high
> Share of ESO is expected to
decrease until 2020
"Many OEMs are now focusing
on core engineering competencies for their captive engineers
again, thus the dynamics of ESP
are likely to cool down over the
next years, but still remain on a
high level"
European OEM
21
Market forecast
The global automotive ESO market is forecast to grow by 5% to 6%
p.a. until 2020, totaling at approx. EUR 16.5 bn
Automotive ESO market by region, 2012-2020 [EUR bn]
CAGR
2012-2020
10.7
5.8
1.3
11.4
5.9
1.5
2.3
2.0
0.3
0.3
1.4
1.4
2012
2013
12.1
6.2
1.7
2.4
12.9
6.5
1.9
2.5
13.1
6.0
13.8
6.2
14.4
6.6
15.4
7.0
2.9
16.5
5.5%
7.4
Europe 3.0%
3.2
China 11.9%
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.1
NAFTA 6.0%
0.4
India
7.3%
RoW
5.5%
0.3
1.6
0.3
1.7
0.4
1.9
0.4
2.0
0.4
2.0
0.4
2.2
2.3
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
> Overall growth rate is expected to
be about 5.5% p.a. from 2012 to
2020
> Highest absolute growth is expected in China: From EUR 1.3 bn in
2012 to EUR 3.2 bn in 2020
> Includes only "in-vehicle"
development work
"Whatever service cannot be
covered in terms of contracts for
work and labor anymore will be
shifted to our engineering
locations in China and India"
European Premium OEM
Note: Possible differences from rounding
Source: Company data; interviews; IHS; Thomson Financials; Roland Berger
22
ESPs need to clearly define their USP and have a best-cost-country
footprint in order to stay competitive on the ESP market
Challenges for ESPs
> For the ESPs, the main challenge will be to have a best-cost-country footprint (e.g. with a hub in China
or India) in order to stay competitive in terms of their cost structure
> Opportunities in low-cost countries are also driven by captive engineering centers increasingly being
used to develop subsystems and derivates resulting in a lowering of the ESP market esp. in Europe
> Project-based service contract will allow that more easily, but at the same time provide an opportunity
for especially the large Indian players, who all try to enter the European market with massive efforts
> It is therefore also very important for the ESPs to clearly define their USP based on specialized knowhow e.g. in the areas of powertrain or material know-how in terms of weight reduction technologies on
the highly competitive market as competition, especially from low-cost countries, will increase
Source: Roland Berger
23
Especially in Germany, OEMs need to ensure that they are able to
outsource engineering effectively and ensure compliance
Possible standard models for the outsourcing of engineering services – illustrative
1
Outsourcing of clearly
defined work packages in
the V-model/process
(e.g. HIL test)
3
…
ECU derivative
ECU 1st model
…
Department 2
SD1)
2
SOP2)
SM3)
Department 1
SD1)
Outsourcing of series
management4)
…
SD1)
SOP2)
1) SD: Series development
2) SOP: Start of production
Source: Roland Berger
SP3)
4
…
SD1)
…
SOP2)
SOP2)
SM3)
SM3)
Trunk lift (electric)
3) SM: Series management
4) Engineering change management after SOP
Outsourcing of
all modules/
components of
a certain type
("non-core
competence")
Body component
SD1)
SOP2)
Development
of first vehicles/systems
inhouse;
outsourcing of
variants/
derivatives
SP3)
Work package for outsourcing
24
C. Authors
25
Authors of the study
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
Dr. Stefan Gutberlet
Partner
Competence Center
Automotive
Senior Consultant
Competence Center
Automotive
[email protected]
Experience
Source: Roland Berger
> Global head of Automotive Practice Group –
Innovation
> Over 17 years of consulting experience,
especially in automotive industry
> Extensive knowledge about automotive,
e-mobility and new materials
> Deep knowledge about energy material
trends and new e-mobility markets
> Expert on connected vehicles
> Strong expertise in diagnostics
[email protected]
> Over 6 years of consulting and industry
experience, especially in automotive
> In-depth automotive wholesale and retail
experience
> Several projects in mobility, telematics and
connected vehicles
> Experience in engineering services provider
markets
26
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only been conducted by RBSC if stated so in the presentation.
4. RBSC's scope of services included […]. It has not been examined if […]. This presentation does not confirm whether turnaround is possible or worthwhile. The
decision over the use, the evaluation of the applicability and the use of the presentation by RBSC are the sole responsibility of the client. The content and scope of
the presentation is exclusively at the discretion of RBSC.
5. This presentation relates only to the position as of [date…] and will not be updated. This presentation has been compiled based on the General Terms and Conditions of RBSC as attached to this presentation. Any use of this presentation (or excerpts of it) or its content must only be made within the scope of the General Terms
and Conditions of RBSC. It is explicitly stated that section 2 no. 2 (no protective effect for the benefit of third parties) and section 9 (limitation of liability) of the
General Terms and Conditions of RBSC apply. If, notwithstanding the intention of the parties, property rights in favor of third parties shall be constituted, section 334
BGB (German Civil Code) shall apply mutatis mutandis. Any possible liability to third parties is limited according to section 9 of the General Terms and Conditions of
RBSC.
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