Informal Comment

Informal Comment
October 20, 2014
11:57 AM
The rating(s) and target price(s) in this Informal Comment are from prior formal published research reports. A link is provided to all
company specific disclosures and analyst specific disclosures for companies under coverage, and general disclosures and disclaimers
below:
https://research.dundeecapitalmarkets.com/en/~/media/Dcm/Publications/ResearchDisclosures/2014/October/Disclosures100814.ashx
2014 BXE Well Curves/Performance YTD vs. Prior Years = no reason to believe wells are underperforming
BXE:T/NYSE – BUY Rated, $11.25 Target Price
Impact: Neutral
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We recently pulled BXE’s wells to compare 2014 activity in the Notikewin/Falher and Cardium to prior years, which are
represented below:
Notikewin/Falher
A division of Dundee Securities Ltd.
Dundee Capital Markets is a registered trademark of Dundee Corporation, used under license.
Cardium
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These curves are shown as Calendar day averages, with the exception of Month-1, which is shown as Producing day (with the
intent that it would smooth the typically low Month-1 Calendar data, which typically is comprised of less than 30-days of data)
o I’d note that well performance in the Notikewin/Falher in 2014 has been quite a bit better than the average 2013
spudded wells (by as much as 412 BOE/d in Month-2 and 279 BOE/d in Month-3) and is making up the difference in the
initial 2014 Cardium shortfall. The Cardium wells are lower, but this is also not surprising given the capacity restrictions
o It’s also likely that the higher pressure Notikewin/Falher wells are backing out Cardium’s; we would further interpret the
flatter Cardium profile/Month-7 uptick (four wells in this latest data point) as evidence of initial rates being restricted by
capacity/back pressure
The company’s portion of the Keyera Twin Rivers Pipeline is to be complete December 1st, the entire line is to be completed in
February, with Keyera likely providing a more accurate timeline on Nov.7 when it reports its quarterly results.
BXE is having all of its covering analysts to their office for lunch on Thursday of this week to meet their new VP Investor Relations,
who we believe to be former CanaccordGenuity Analyst, Steve Toth
o While we wouldn’t expect a new VP IR to move the stock, we have a high opinion of Steve and believe he will prove
valuable to corporate communications/transparency/marketing materials and ideally corporate planning
Bottom line from our perspective is that we have no reason to believe there has been any underperformance from a well deliverability
perspective and that the company’s issue remains capacity-related. BXE is currently trading at 4.0x 2015E EV/DACF and $32,797 per BOE/d
vs. its peers at 6.6x and $68,648 per BOE/d
Regards,
BK
Brian Kristjansen | Vice President, Head of Energy Research
DUNDEE CAPITAL MARKETS
350-7th Avenue SW, Suite 3600, Calgary, Alberta T2P 3N9| 403.509.2662 t | 403.470.1163 c
[email protected]
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