October 28, 2014 Global Markets Research Daily Market Highlights Key Takeaways Overnight Economic Data US UK Market sentiments remained mixed, baffled by growth concerns, falling oil prices, outcome of the European banks’ stress tests, and to some extent Ebola fear. Overnight economic releases were again uninspiring. PMI services in the US moderated for the 4th straight month while manufacturing expansion remained uneven across districts and housing numbers remained far from solid. Germany business sentiments plunged to a near 2-year low amid looming growth risks. Exports weakened in both Hong Kong and Vietnam amid Germany Hong Kong Vietnam Japan an uncertain growth backdrop globally. Government Bond Yield DXY extended its move lower to close at 85.49 amid subdued risk appetite and after 3-year 3.47 weaker data spurred expectations the Fed will likely reiterate its tone of low rates for a considerable time. MYR pared early session gains to close only marginally stronger at 3.2765 vs a weaker USD. However, MYR weakened against all other G10s but managed to outperform its regional peers. A weak USD is paving the ground for a stronger MYR but markets could be turning increasingly cautious as FOMC meeting begins tonight, 5-year 3.63 MYR keeping a lid on MYR strength. Trading volume in MYR govvies surged to over RM4.9b transacted, with focus on off the run MGS 7/16 which saw robust RM3.6b worth transacted. Levels inched 1 bp higher to close at 3.46% level. Meanwhile we continue to see active trading on GII 5/24 with RM380m changing hands, with levels inching 1 bp to close at 4.12% level. We opine the wide yield pickup of 33-34bps versus MGS 7/24 continue to shore investors demand from a UST 7-year 3.78 10-year 3.78 15-year 4.16 20-year 4.24 30-year 4.64 2-year 0.38 5-year 1.49 10-year 2.26 30-year 3.04 relative value perspective. Yield pickup in GII 5/24 just got more appealing after MGS 7/24 yields eased 3 bps to settle at 3.78% as per yesterday’s closing levels. Ringgit performance remains as a key influence for MYR bonds, with focus this week shifting towards US FOMC meeting. What’s Coming Up Next Major Data US durable goods orders, S&P CaseShiller house prices, consumer confidence & Richmond Fed manufacturing Japan retail trade & small biz confidence China industrial profits Major Events FOMC meeting begins Bond Tender Nil Daily Supports - Resistances S2 S1 Indicative R1 R2 EURUSD 1.2635 1.2670 1.2697 1.2700 1.2750 USDJPY 107.66 107.70 107.93 108.36 108.75 GBPUSD 1.6085 1.6100 1.6119 1.6145 1.6180 AUDUSD 0.8770 0.8800 0.8803 0.8825 0.8855 EURGBP 0.7855 0.7870 0.7878 0.7891 0.7906 USDMYR 3.2668 3.2722 3.2745 3.2780 3.2800 EURMYR 4.1435 4.1451 4.1580 4.1590 4.1693 JPYMYR 3.0218 3.0338 3.0338 3.0385 3.0415 GBPMYR 5.2700 5.2750 5.2788 5.2800 5.2880 SGDMYR 2.5625 2.5645 2.5694 2.5700 2.5715 AUDMYR 2.8780 2.8800 2.8831 2.8850 2.8895 NZDMYR 2.5743 2.5804 2.5832 2.5895 2.5932 = above 0.1% gain = above 0.1% loss Name Last Price KLCI Dow Jones Ind. DoD % YTD % 1823.2 0.2 -2.3 16817.9 0.1 1.5 S&P 500 1961.6 -0.2 6.1 FTSE 100 6363.5 -0.4 -5.7 Shanghai 2290.4 -0.5 23143.2 3226.1 Hang Seng STI Source: Bloomberg 1 Name CRB Index WTI oil ($/bbl) Brent oil ($/bbl) Outlook = less than 0.1% gain / loss Last Price DoD % YTD % 270.4 0.1 -3.5 81.0 -0.3 -17.7 -22.8 85.8 -0.3 Gold (S/oz) 1226.6 -0.4 1.7 8.2 CPO (RM/tonne) 2186.0 0.8 -15.0 -0.7 -0.7 Copper ($/tonne) 6690.0 -0.1 -9.1 0.1 1.9 Rubber (sen/kg) 394.5 0.1 -26.8 Macroeconomics Economic Data US Markit PMI services US pending home sales US Dallas Fed manufacturing UK CBI reported sales GE IFO biz climate GE IFO expectations JP retail trade YOY JP retail sales MOM JP large retailers’ sales HK exports VN exports YTD VN retail sales YTD VN industrial production Source: Bloomberg For Actual Last Survey Oct P Sept 57.3 0.3% 58.9 -1.0% 57.8 1.0% Oct Oct Oct Oct Sept Sept Sept Sept Oct Oct Oct 10.5 31 103.2 98.3 2.3% 2.7% 0.5% 4.5% 13.4% 11.1% 7.9% 10.8 31 104.7 99.3 1.2% 1.9% 1.6% 6.4% 14.1% 11.1% 8.6% 11.0 25 104.5 99.2 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 6.0% 13.6% --- • Overnight dataflow turned out largely negative again. Markit PMI services in the US moderated for the 4th straight month, by more than expected to 57.3 in October, a 6-month low dragged by hefty pullback in business expectations and prices charged. • On the manufacturing front, Dallas Fed manufacturing unexpectedly decelerated to 10.5 in October, as lower production offset a near doubling gain in new orders, reiterating uneven growth pact in manufacturing activities across different districts. • Tracking recent softness in housing, pending home sales rebounded less than expected to increase only 0.3% MOM in September. This affirmed that recovery in the housing market is struggling to gather speed, dampened by financing difficulties and weak wage growth. • Business sentiments in Germany weakened for the 6th straight month, adding to concerns growth in the Euro region is bracing for challenging times ahead. IFO business climate softened more than expected of 103.2 while the expectations gauge also pulled back more than expected to 98.3 in October, both at 22-month lows. • On a more positive note, CBI reported that sales held steady at 31 in October, defying expectations for a fall to 25 as higher reading in the stock component offset the decline in sales. • Back in Asia, this morning’s Japanese data came in surprisingly pleasant but we doubt it is pointing to solid consumption growth going forward. Retail trade unexpectedly jumped 2.3% YOY in September even though large retailers’ sales reported a more moderate gain of 0.5% YOY. Meanwhile, retail sales also accelerated 2.7% MOM. • In Hong Kong, exports continued to moderate for a 3rd straight month, growing 4.5% YOY in September as exports to all major markets namely China, the US and Asia all expanded at a slower pace. Imports on the other hand picked up more than expected with a 6.3% YOY increase. Uncertain global growth coupled with domestic headwinds are expected to pose downside risks to 4Q growth, putting full year growth projection of 3-4% at risk. • Key releases from Vietnam signaled economic growth is losing some traction and marked a slow start to 4Q, reaffirming the case of a dovish SBV. Exports moderated more than expected to increase 13.4% YOY YTD October, while imports managed to hold on to a 11.2% YOY gain in the same period. Retail sales sustained a 11.1% YOY increase thanks to a more robust trade sector but expansion industrial production slowed to 7.9% YOY in October, as decline in mining & quarrying as well as slower growth in electricity negated quicker gains in manufacturing and water supply. 2 Economic Calendar Release Date Country Date Event Reporting Period Survey Prior Revised US 10/28 Durable goods orders Sept 0.5% -18.2% -18.4% S&P CaseShiller house prices Aug 5.70% 6.75% -- Consumer confidence Oct 87.0 86.0 -- Richmond Fed manufacturing Oct 10 14 -- 10/29 MBA mortgage applications Oct 24 -- 11.6% -- UK 10/29 Net consumer credit Sept 0.8b 0.9b -- Mortgage approvals Sept 62.0K 64.2K -- Japan 10/28 Retail trade YOY Sept 0.8% 1.2% -- Retail sales MOM Sept 0.9% 1.9% -- Small biz confidence Oct 48.5 47.6 -- Industrial production Sept P 2.2% -1.9% -- 10/29 China NZ Source: Bloomberg 3 10/28 Industrial profits Sept -- -0.6% -- 10/29 Leading index Sept -- 100.09 -- 10/29 ANZ activity outlook Oct -- 37.0 -- ANZ biz confidence Oct -- 13.4 -- Forex MYR FX Table Nam e • MYR strengthened a slight 0.05% to 3.2765 against USD after returning Last Price DoD % High Low YTD % EURUSD 1.2698 0.21 1.2723 1.2666 -7.6 USDJPY 107.82 -0.31 108.38 107.61 2.4 GBPUSD 1.6120 0.19 1.6147 1.6079 -2.6 AUDUSD 0.8802 0.10 0.8825 0.8789 -1.3 EURGBP 0.7878 0.03 0.7894 0.7862 -5.1 USDMYR 3.2765 -0.05 3.278 3.2675 0.0 a spate of softer US data that continued to dampen interest rate outlook. The EURMYR 4.1611 0.32 4.1626 4.1464 -7.8 Dollar Index had erased early losses by European mid-day before plunging JPYMYR 3.0390 0.27 3.0448 3.0246 -2.4 GBPMYR 5.2784 0.25 5.2784 5.2610 -2.5 SGDMYR 2.5684 0.00 2.5696 2.5641 -0.8 AUDMYR 2.8837 0.26 2.8862 2.8786 -1.3 NZDMYR 2.5809 0.48 2.5816 2.5665 -4.0 gains from stronger opening but fell against 8 G10s as buying interest faded going into early European trade. • MYR remains likely to be trending towards gains on the back of a weaker overnight USD. USD • USD weakened against 8 G10s for a second day as selling intensified after on data weakness, closing lower at 85.49. • Unless US data improves tonight, we reckon that USD will likely see further selling ahead of Fed meeting. EUR • EUR recovered on the back of a weakened USD, erasing early losses to Source: Bloomberg rise 0.21% to 1.2698 while beating 6 G10s. • With USD tilted towards the downside, we expect EUR to continue making slight advances. MYR vs Major Counterparts (% DOD) USD -0.05 GBP MYR Depreciated -0.05 HKD • GBP ended mixed against the G10s but climbed 0.19% against a weak -0.04 CNY SGD USD to close at 1.6120, highest in a week. • We continue to expect weak European sentiments as well as a softer 0.00 MYR GBP Appreciated AUD USD to keep GBP supported; holding 1.61 likely to keep downside 0.25 CHF 0.27 JPY 0.27 EUR -0.10 0.00 pressure at bay. 0.26 JPY 0.32 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 • JPY advanced against 9 G10s following firmer refuge demand in late Asian trading going into European session and advanced 0.31% against a weakened USD to close at 107.82 • Signs of weakness in the markets, particularly that of Europe, will likely see a return in refuge demand that firms up JPY against a soft USD. AUD • AUD was mostly sideways and had to rely on USD weakness in US morning to advance 0.10% to 0.8802, highest in 8 days. Despite late rally in equities, weakness in Asian and European markets condemned AUD to a lower closing against 6 G10s. • AUDUSD will be aided by rebounding market risk appetite in Asian trade as well as a soft USD, but we remain doubtful of extended strength until above 0.8846. SGD • SGD fell against 7 G10s, pressured by weakness in risk appetite preceding US trading but managed to advance 0.07% to 1.2745 against a soft USD. • We continue to see SGD outperforming a soft USD. 4 Fixed Income US T US Treasuries T e nure C lo s ing ( %) C hg ( bps ) 2-yr UST 0.38 -1 5-yr UST 1.49 -1 10-yr UST 2.26 -1 30-yr UST 3.04 0 M GS UST steadied with most investors expecting interest rates to remain accommodative in the medium term even as the Fed is G II* T e nure C lo s ing ( %) C hg ( bps ) C lo s ing ( %) 3-yr 3.47 -1 3.64 C hg ( bps ) 0 5-yr 3.63 0 3.79 1 0 7-yr 3.78 1 3.98 10-yr 3.78 -3 4.12 1 15-yr 4.16 0 4.39 0 20-yr 4.24 1 4.59 0 30-yr 4.64 -1 * M arket indicative levels C lo s ing ( %) 1-yr 3.76 C hg ( bps ) 1 3-yr 3.82 0 5-yr 3.91 1 7-yr 4.03 0 10-yr 4.11 0 Meanwhile we continue to see active trading on GII 5/24 with RM380m changing hands, with levels inching 1 bp to close at 4.12% level. We opine the wide yield pickup of 33-34bps versus MGS 7/24 continue to shore investors demand from a relative value perspective. Yield pickup in GII 5/24 just got more So urce : B lo omberg Daily Trades Government Bonds MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS MGS GII GII GII 8/15 10/15 7/16 2/17 3/17 9/17 10/17 2/18 3/18 9/18 10/19 11/19 7/20 7/21 9/21 7/24 4/26 4/30 4/32 4/33 9/43 4/19 5/24 12/28 3.221 3.324 3.455 3.488 3.472 3.532 3.533 3.586 3.592 3.593 3.628 3.682 3.694 3.794 3.775 3.779 4.024 4.158 4.252 4.239 4.638 3.794 4.118 4.393 Source: BPAM 5 MGS RM3.6b worth transacted. Levels inched 1 bp higher to close at 3.46% level. IR S Closing YTM week totaling $108b. On the data tap, tonight’s release of durable goods orders, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing index are expected to provide further clues on the outlook for the US economy. Trading volume in MYR govvies surged to over RM4.9b transacted, with focus on off the run MGS 7/16 which saw robust M Y R IR S Le v e ls Securities expected to announce tapering completion as US economic data improves. Yields on 10-year seen holding up well, easing 1 bp to close at 2.26% level. FOMC is scheduled to convene a 2-day meeting beginning today. Meanwhile US government is expected to sell $29b of 2-year notes today, first of the 4 auctions this Vol (RM mil) Previous YTM 331 262 3648 10 50 38 10 15 10 2 16 14 25 2 6 27 1 13 0 3 16 80 380 20 4979 3.365 3.409 3.449 3.475 3.481 3.496 3.516 3.583 3.596 3.566 3.628 3.665 3.713 3.819 3.763 3.802 4.019 4.156 4.307 4.233 4.65 3.776 4.114 4.386 Previous Trade Date (dd/mm/yyyy) 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 23/10/2014 24/10/2014 24/10/2014 17/10/2014 24/10/2014 17/10/2014 Chg (bp) -14 -9 1 1 -1 4 2 0 0 3 0 2 -2 -2 1 -2 0 0 -6 1 -1 2 0 1 appealing after MGS 7/24 yields eased 3 bps to settle at 3.78% as per yesterday’s closing levels. Ringgit performance remains as a key influence for MYR bonds, with focus this week shifting towards US FOMC meeting. PDS/Sukuk On the PDS front, trading volume was over RM606m crossed. Active trading seen on GG space, with PLUS ‘1/38 and ‘12/38 done tighter to close at 4.85% and 4.91% respectively, with combined volume of RM110m changing hands. Meanwhile in the AAA space, we saw Hyundai Cap ’15 traded 2 bps inside to close at 3.66%, KEXIM ’15 traded 7 bps wider to end at 3.76% and Sime Darby ’16 done 6 bps lower to close at 3.79%. Other notable traded include First Resources ‘10/21 done at 4.80% with RM40m changing hands. Meanwhile WCT ’15 & ’21 traded at 4.10% and 4.89% with combined volume of RM15m done. Daily Trades: PDS / Sukuk Securities Pengurusan Air SPV Berhad Khazanah Nasional Berhad Pengurusan Air SPV Berhad Khazanah Nasional Berhad Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad Cagamas Berhad Hyundai Capital Services Inc National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC The Export-Import Bank of Korea Sime Darby Berhad Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad Manjung Island Energy Berhad Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad Cagamas Berhad Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad Malaysia Airports Capital Berhad Cagamas Berhad Aman Sukuk Berhad Genting Capital Berhad CIMB Bank Berhad YTL Power International Berhad CIMB Bank Berhad Westports Malaysia Sdn Berhad Westports Malaysia Sdn Berhad AmBank (M) Berhad Noble Group Limited Imtiaz Sukuk II Berhad Imtiaz Sukuk II Berhad Hong Leong Bank Berhad First Resources Limited AMMB Holdings Berhad Gamuda Berhad TF Varlik Kiralama A. S CIMB Thai Bank Public Company Limited BGSM Management Sdn Berhad WCT Holdings Berhad WCT Holdings Berhad KESTURI Cerah Sama Sdn Berhad 2/19 3/20 2/21 2/21 1/38 12/38 11/14 5/15 6/15 7/15 11/16 7/17 11/17 7/18 8/18 5/19 8/20 10/20 10/21 6/22 9/18 3/23 12/20 5/22 5/23 3/15 10/15 12/16 3/19 6/19 10/21 8/17 3/19 6/19 7/19 6/24 10/21 12/15 12/21 1/30 Rating Closing YTM Vol (RM mil) Previous YTM GG GG GG GG GG GG AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AA1 AA1 AA+ AA+ AA+ AA2 AA2 AA2 AA2 AA2 AA2 AA3 AA3 AA3 AA3 AA3 AAAAAAAA- 3.957 4.132 4.177 4.206 4.851 4.909 3.653 3.978 3.714 3.762 3.795 3.842 3.900 3.975 4.029 4.070 4.400 4.249 4.360 4.678 4.699 4.878 4.848 4.518 4.579 3.989 4.423 4.103 4.336 4.619 4.800 4.651 4.411 5.542 5.001 5.203 4.899 4.098 4.569 5.417 30 5 10 10 70 40 40 10 4 20 55 15 5 30 10 5 14 5 10 5 0 10 10 5 5 20 5 30 30 1 40 0 10 0 1 20 10 5 10 1 606 3.956 4.141 4.194 4.203 4.860 4.950 3.461 3.995 3.690 3.689 3.854 3.900 3.902 3.972 4.041 4.197 4.299 4.287 4.381 4.607 4.609 4.879 4.908 4.319 4.759 3.913 4.426 4.112 4.352 4.639 4.544 4.420 5.545 5.295 5.199 4.072 4.941 5.429 Previous Trade Date (dd/mm/yyyy) 07/10/2014 20/10/2014 01/10/2014 24/10/2014 10/10/2014 19/09/2014 12/06/2014 21/10/2014 21/10/2014 08/04/2014 10/07/2014 20/08/2014 21/10/2014 04/09/2014 08/10/2014 10/12/2013 20/10/2014 08/10/2014 07/08/2014 09/10/2014 17/10/2014 13/10/2014 26/09/2014 29/08/2013 27/06/2014 03/10/2014 16/10/2014 25/09/2014 25/09/2014 26/09/2014 08/10/2014 10/10/2014 15/10/2014 13/10/2014 20/10/2014 16/10/2014 04/06/2014 16/10/2014 Chg (bp) 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 19 -2 2 7 -6 -6 0 0 -1 -13 10 -4 -2 7 9 0 -6 20 -18 8 0 -1 -2 -2 11 -1 0 -29 0 3 -37 -1 Spread Against IRS** 10 23 21 24 51 57 -10 22 -4 1 4 3 9 12 17 17 44 28 33 62 84 82 88 46 52 23 67 34 48 71 77 84 56 164 110 110 114 34 54 108 ** spread against nearest indicative tenured IRS Source : BPAM Market/Corporate News: What’s Brewing Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) shares reacted positively to its decision to acquire the remaining 40% it does not own in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (ISG). Analysts remain positive on MAHB’s long-term growth despite short-term weaknesses in earnings and earnings per share. The airport operator saw its shares jump 36 sen, or 5.11%, to a one-month high of RM7.41. It was one of the top gainers yesterday. Last Thursday, MAHB had exercised its right of first refusal to acquire the remaining 40% stake in ISG, which is currently owned by the Limak Group, for RM1.18bil. It expects an additional 30% contribution to its revenue from the ISG acquisition, which is expected to be completed next year. (Source : The Star) 6 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), which is in the limelight for a host of reasons, is poised to be a major player in the Sabah power sector. The plants under 1MDB’s belt are a 400MW gas-fired plant and a 780MW hydro plant in Ulu Padas. The gas plant is to be located either in Lahad Datu or Sandakan. According to sources, the third power plant that is coming up is a thermal plant that has secured a power purchase agreement with the Sabah Electricity Board. The hydro plant would be part of the draft prospectus exposure for 1MDB Energy Bhd, which would be submitted to the Securities Commission, with a targeted listing by end-February 2015, said the source. StarBiz had reported that 1MDB was eyeing a new hydro power plant with a 780MW capacity, for which it was expecting a nine sen per kWh tariff, higher than the 6.25 sen from Sarawak’s Bakun Dam.Sources expected that the Federal Governmentsponsored fund would take close to an 80% stake in the hydro power plant, which is part of 1MDB’s growth pipeline ahead of its initial public offering (IPO). (Source : The Star) Rating Actions Issuer PDS Description Central Impression Sdn Bhd 11-year Fixed Rate Serial Bonds of up to RM120.0 million. Source: MARC, RAM 7 Rating/Outlook Action AA- (Stable) Assigned Hong Leong Bank Berhad Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong 18, Jalan Perak 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 603-2773 0469 Fax: 603-2164 9305 Email: [email protected] DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report and will not form the basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever. 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