Maybank KE

Maybank KE





Healthy correction in current market
S&P historical PE Average = 14.88. Now 15.04
Drop is within 1 Std Dev
STI to correct to 3000 = buying opportunities
Recommend on e-commerce, China environmental & reform
1
Maybank KE
2
Maybank KE
3
Maybank KE
4
Maybank KE
5
Maybank KE
6
Maybank KE
7
Maybank KE
8
Maybank KE
9
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong

Monitor US dollar index. US dollar will lead the interest
rate rise
10
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
11
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
12
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
13
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
14
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
15
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
16
DTZ NextView – Dar Wong
17
Hu LiYang








Recession not here yet
Market will be down if both equity down and 10 treasury yield is up to 3%
Follow the fund flow
Stock market already factored good news – ahead of economy. Narrow
path of can only be right (exceed estimates)
Est. rate hike by Feb 2015 (based on QE stop by Oct14) Rate of hike is
following inflation
World consumption is weak due to fund in mortgages
Wait for opportunities – stuff pillow with cash
Traits of top traders:
Manage fund / asset allocation
 Position sizing
 Not normal. 90% of normal people cannot make money


Shanghai market has yet to cross the fair value (still under value)
18
Hu LiYang
19
Hu LiYang
20
Hu LiYang
21
Hu LiYang
22
Hu LiYang
23
Hu LiYang
24
Chan Yan Chong
European recession caused by austerity measure in 2011
 QE4 unlikely. Recession vs Tsunami
 Shanghai-HK connect delay due to taxation. Confident will
materialize








Followed by Shenzhen connect, Singapore connect, etc
Ultimate goal is RMB
Some Chinese trade China stock thru HK
Singapore will face recession, starting by Little India incident.
Change of labor law
E-commerce, logistic supply chain. During recession more will shop
online. Public utilities as low risk play
Stock market ahead of economy.
10 year treasuries prediction of future economy
25
Chan Yan Chong
26
Chan Yan Chong
27
Chan Yan Chong
28
Chan Yan Chong
29
Chan Yan Chong
30
Chan Yan Chong
31
Chan Yan Chong
32
Chan Yan Chong
33
Chan Yan Chong
34
Forum
QE4? – unlikely. Lots of fund in the market. If deep recession
then 2H 2016 when Obama’s term ends
 China started 5 year bond. Only citizen qualified
 Shanghai-HK connect:






A-share & H-share will close the gap
Agriculture bank of China
RQFII -> ease flow of RMB back into China
7 days frozen period for Shanghai (no contra)
Companies listed in China and not in HK could benefits: precision
engineering, medical, rare earth.
China is gambler market! Volume will push up price
 Buy China company listed in SGX
 E-commerce is currently only 10% of total consumption

35