Maybank KE Healthy correction in current market S&P historical PE Average = 14.88. Now 15.04 Drop is within 1 Std Dev STI to correct to 3000 = buying opportunities Recommend on e-commerce, China environmental & reform 1 Maybank KE 2 Maybank KE 3 Maybank KE 4 Maybank KE 5 Maybank KE 6 Maybank KE 7 Maybank KE 8 Maybank KE 9 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong Monitor US dollar index. US dollar will lead the interest rate rise 10 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 11 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 12 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 13 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 14 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 15 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 16 DTZ NextView – Dar Wong 17 Hu LiYang Recession not here yet Market will be down if both equity down and 10 treasury yield is up to 3% Follow the fund flow Stock market already factored good news – ahead of economy. Narrow path of can only be right (exceed estimates) Est. rate hike by Feb 2015 (based on QE stop by Oct14) Rate of hike is following inflation World consumption is weak due to fund in mortgages Wait for opportunities – stuff pillow with cash Traits of top traders: Manage fund / asset allocation Position sizing Not normal. 90% of normal people cannot make money Shanghai market has yet to cross the fair value (still under value) 18 Hu LiYang 19 Hu LiYang 20 Hu LiYang 21 Hu LiYang 22 Hu LiYang 23 Hu LiYang 24 Chan Yan Chong European recession caused by austerity measure in 2011 QE4 unlikely. Recession vs Tsunami Shanghai-HK connect delay due to taxation. Confident will materialize Followed by Shenzhen connect, Singapore connect, etc Ultimate goal is RMB Some Chinese trade China stock thru HK Singapore will face recession, starting by Little India incident. Change of labor law E-commerce, logistic supply chain. During recession more will shop online. Public utilities as low risk play Stock market ahead of economy. 10 year treasuries prediction of future economy 25 Chan Yan Chong 26 Chan Yan Chong 27 Chan Yan Chong 28 Chan Yan Chong 29 Chan Yan Chong 30 Chan Yan Chong 31 Chan Yan Chong 32 Chan Yan Chong 33 Chan Yan Chong 34 Forum QE4? – unlikely. Lots of fund in the market. If deep recession then 2H 2016 when Obama’s term ends China started 5 year bond. Only citizen qualified Shanghai-HK connect: A-share & H-share will close the gap Agriculture bank of China RQFII -> ease flow of RMB back into China 7 days frozen period for Shanghai (no contra) Companies listed in China and not in HK could benefits: precision engineering, medical, rare earth. China is gambler market! Volume will push up price Buy China company listed in SGX E-commerce is currently only 10% of total consumption 35
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