Market Report 28 October 2014 Important events for this week: rd Today: CEC - Winter 3 Production and Summer Intentions to Plant INDEX TABLE CBOT Dec Corn CBOT Dec Wheat CBOT Nov Soya R/$ Brent Crude Spot Previous day 12pm 3.4900 5.1425 9.7050 10.9723 85.69 Present day 3.6400 5.2525 10.0150 10.9492 85.35 Change 15.00 11.00 31.00 -0.023 -0.34 CBOT $/mt 143.30 192.99 367.98 SA $/mt 178.55 330.25 479.30 Implied Parity Move R 61.49 R 39.89 R 116.48 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS CORN/MAIZE CBOT – Dec ▲10.00c/bu @ 363.00c Overnights Dec ▲1.25c/bu @ 364.25c Corn prices closed higher last night defying what was expected before the market opened. Weather forecasts in the US and Brazil were seen as bearish for prices but the US corn market found support from tight corn stocks in the US and sharply higher soya prices. Farmers are not selling as they concentrate on getting their crops off the land The drier US weather is helping the harvest but most farmers are focusing on their soya crops at the moment as they are more vulnerable to the weather than corn US weekly export inspections were lower than expected Recent rain in Brazil is helping the plantings after a dry start to the season while Argentina is expected to get welcome rain after some hot, dry weather The talk of EU feed wheat being imported into the US gained further legs with reports of UK feed wheat also making its way across the Atlantic WHEAT CBOT – Dec ▲5.00c/bu @ 522.75c Overnights Dec ▲2.25c/bu @ 525.00c Concerns over a poor start to Russia’s wheat season as well as problems with Australia’s crop is offering support to the wheat market US weekly export inspections were below market expectations SOYA COMPLEX Soya Beans – Nov ▲28.50c/bu @ 1006.00c Overnights Nov ▼4.00c/bu @ 1002.00c Soya Meal - Dec ▲$29.90@ $378.30/short ton; Soya Oil - Dec ▼0.09c@ 32.26c/lb Bean prices posted strong gains last night with higher meal prices and demand for US beans offering support. Funds bought 15k contracts Weekly US export inspections were pegged at 2.195, which was much higher than expected The USDA also announced separate sales of 120kmt of US beans to China and a further 110kmt to an unknown destination SAFEX PREVIOUS DAY MTM Change (R) Open Interest Yellow Maize Change (R) Open Interest White Maize M-T-M Nov WM R 1 864 -28 594 -8 Nov YM R 1 923 -9 213 6 Dec WM R 1 880 -20 12 321 210 Dec YM R 1 934 -24 7 837 -124 Mar WM R 1 893 -17 12 223 -8 Mar YM R 1 955 -29 5 333 14 May WM R 1 899 -36 232 4 May YM R 1 950 -20 135 1 Jul WM R 1 915 -5 3 059 112 Jul YM R 1 933 -20 2 282 63 R0 0 - 0 R0 0 - 0 Change (R) Open Interest Change (R) Open Interest Change Sep WM Change M-T-M Sep YM Change Corn in Rands M-T-M Dec Crn R 1 516 -58 1 290 24 Nov Wht R0 0 - 0 Mar Crn R 1 600 -56 143 2 Dec Wht R 3 616 -15 13 194 -49 Jul Crn R 1 708 -55 279 48 Mar Wht R 3 693 -14 3 916 129 May Wht R 3 745 1 218 5 Change (R) Open Interest Change Wheat Change M-T-M Change (R) Open Interest R 4 670 -95 3 0 Nov Soya R 5 200 -89 39 16 Dec Suns R 4 729 -61 6 409 70 Dec Soya R 5 248 -78 6 670 -87 Mar Suns R 4 550 -100 273 0 Mar Soya R 5 120 -69 949 8 May Suns R 4 145 -45 494 2 May Soya R 4 510 -64 1 503 13 Sunflower M-T-M Nov Suns Soya Change M-T-M Maize prices closed lower yesterday on the back of lower US prices, the stronger rand and recent rain over the eastern growing regions. Prices did however find late buying support and outperformed the CBOT/ Rand index. COMMENTARY Weekly US Crop Progress and Conditions: The US corn harvest progress lags the averages, for this time of the year, but last week’s progress did come out higher than the market expected. The soya harvest is progressing well slowly catching up with the averages. The first winter wheat crop condition report came out close to the averages but the market was expecting higher numbers in the good to excellent category. US Corn Harvesting Progress (%) Last Week Ending Current week 26-Oct 46 31 Extreme values Last Year 56 5yr Ave. 65 10yr Ave. 62 20yr Ave. 65 US Soya Beans Harvesting Progress (%) Last Last Week Ending Current week Year 26-Oct 70 53 75 5yr Ave. 76 10yr Ave. 79 20yr Ave. 81 Current 96 Last week 93 Year 2012 Lowest 21 Year 2009 Lowest 44 Year 1985 Extreme values Corn Mature (%) Week Ending 26-Oct Highest 90 Last Year 97 5yr Ave. 97 Highest 92 Year 2010 US Winter Wheat Planting Progress (%) Week Last Last Ending Current week Year 26-Oct 84 76 85 US Winter Wheat Crop Condition (%) Last Week Ending Current week Good to Excellent 26-Oct 59 0 Poor to very Poor 26-Oct 7 0 Extreme values 5yr Ave. 84 10yr Ave. 86 20yr Ave. 86 Highest 91 Year 1987 Lowest 76 Year 2009 Extreme values Last Year 10yr Ave. 20yr Ave. Highest Year Lowest Year 61 59 60 76 2004 47 2011 4 8 9 17 2003 2 2004 Rand: The rand was little changed yesterday, bidding time ahead of a data-heavy week that will drive direction. The rand traded within Friday's levels and held below the psychologically important 11 mark gains that were taken after a well-received interim budget from the finance minister last Wednesday. Analysts said South African markets have been sought out as the economy shows signs of recovery after being dragged to contraction in the first quarter by months of strikes in key sectors such as platinum mining. However, the finance minister will have to live up to the fiscal commitments made in the budget. "Despite these positive developments, there are still reasons to be concerned about South Africa. The economy is still only growing slowly and it remains to be seen whether the government will go through with its plan to reduce the budget deficit," said Jack Allen of Capital Economics. Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene made commitments to rein in government spending, raise revenue and support struggling state-owned companies without putting pressure on the budget last week, cheering the rand and bonds. This week's events likely to move the rand will start with a speech by Deputy Governor Daniel Mminele to financial market professionals this evening, followed by credit data and a central bank report on the banking system tomorrow. The back end of the week sees the release of third quarter jobless numbers and September producer inflation numbers, and closes with revenue collection figures and trade data on Friday. CEC: The CEC could reduce its estimate for maize plantings this season to 2.48mil ha because of a lack of rain, a survey of three estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Last season, 2.688mil ha were sown. The CEC will release its intentions to plant report this afternoon. WEATHER SA: Sakkie Nigrini – Netfor: Dit is weer bewolk oor die oostelike hoëveld maar ek dink vandag gaan die wolke wegbrand deur die loop van die oggend. Die band oor die sentrale en suidelike binneland is meestal middel en hoë wolke waar daar nog vanoggend enkele donderstorms voorkom. Nou nie baie nie, maar Kirkwood naby PE het sowat 7mm gekry en ander kolle sowat 0.2mm tot 1mm. In die band van wolke behoort daar weer vanmiddag enkele los hitte storms voor te kom maar met die gebrek aan enige noemenswaardige bolug om te help gaan dit enkel wees en die verspreiding swak. Niks dramaties wat ek kan aflei vanoggend maar onthou hitte storms sonder reën kan die veld aan die brand steek, so wees reg en voorbereid as iets snaaks sou gebeur. International: US: The DTN Ag weather forecast calls for favourable harvest conditions across the central U.S. during this week. There are no significant concerns for the harvest of summer crops and planting of winter wheat during the next seven days, although some may see a little rain at times. South America: In central Brazil, weekend rain totals of 25 to 50mm, with local amounts over 100 mm were noted. These rains are beneficial for soil moisture for soybean planting. More frequent showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next week. This will allow increased planting across the region following the very hot and dry weather of the past few weeks that halted planting. PIVOT POINTS Intraday Pivot Points Second Resistance First Resistance Pivot First Support Second Support Dec WM 1905 1890 1870 1855 1835 Dec YM 1947 1938 1927 1918 1907 Dec Corn 1519 1516 1515 1513 1512 Dec Wheat 3625 3621 3615 3611 3605 Dec Suns 4777 4743 4717 4683 4657 Dec Soya 5294 5268 5254 5228 5214 CONTACT DETAILS POINTS Pretoria 274 Emus Erasmus Ave Erasmusrand Pretoria 012 940 8347 John 012 940 8349 cell: 082 456 7434 [email protected] Juanita Tel: 012 940 8348 cell: 084 824 0902 [email protected] P.O. Box 25082 Monument Park, 0105 The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources which we believe are reliable. Agcom (Pty) Ltd does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. 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