EQLINE RESEARCH EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd Technical Picks | October 25, 2014 Bulls defended successfully - next hurdle at 8050 Sensex (26787) / Nifty (7996) Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart Trading on Monday kicked off with a decent upside gap owing to stellar performance by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly election coupled with the Oil & Gas reforms announced by the government on Saturday in the previous week. Subsequently, the Nifty traded within a narrow range throughout the remaining session and closed with over a percent of gains. The Nifty opened with an upside gap on Tuesday and Wednesday as well and then remained range bound for the rest of the day. All the three trading session of the week closed well inside the positive territory with the Source: Falcon Nifty concluding trading on Wednesday at the highest point of the week. All the sectors closed in the green for the week among which the Capital Goods, Banking, Auto and Oil & Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart Gas sectors were the major gainers. The Nifty ended the week with a decent gain of 2.78% over the previous week's closing. Pattern formation: The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at 25856 / 7732 and 22523 / 6738 levels, respectively. The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at 26478 / 7918 and 25835 / 7726 levels, respectively. Future outlook Source: Falcon It's been a dream run for our equity bourses over the past few ongoing momentum and the positive placement of the daily months. Our benchmark index (Nifty) has appreciated by 30% 'RSI-Smoothened' momentum oscillator, the Nifty may extend since last Diwali, which is a great achievement for our market. its gains towards 8050 - 8080. But since we are observing The concluded week was truncated on the back of Diwali a cluster of resistances around 8050 - 80808050 - festival; but despite this, we witnessed a strong up move across advise short term traders to lighten up their existing long the broader market. In our earlier report, we had mentioned positions in the Nifty around above mentioned levels and stay about 7700 on the sidelines until the next technical development happens. expected, the daily '89 EMA' placed around 7700 played a However, it's advisable to continue with a stock specific sheet anchor role for the bulls. We had also mentioned about approach. On the flipside, 7900 - 7860 the 'Falling Wedge' pattern along with the positive crossover in a strong supports for the Nifty in the coming week. daily momentum oscillators. All these technical evidences We would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Happy proved their significance during the week as the Nifty precisely , we would Diwali and Prosperous New Year. met with our target of 7980. Going forward, looking at the 212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602 1 EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd Technical Picks | October 25, 2014 Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC S2 26,209 S1 26,498 PIVOT 26,658 R1 26,947 R2 27,108 7,805 7,900 7,953 8,048 8,101 15,976 16,210 16,391 16,626 16,807 1,378 1,426 1,453 1,501 1,529 AMBUJACEM 206 211 215 220 224 ASIANPAINT 621 632 645 657 670 AXISBANK 403 414 421 432 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,334 2,415 2,462 2,542 439 2,589 BANKBARODA 853 871 884 901 914 BHEL 217 229 237 249 256 BPCL 664 676 696 708 728 BHARTIARTL 391 400 408 417 424 CAIRN 267 278 284 295 301 CIPLA 586 607 621 642 655 COALINDIA 342 347 357 363 372 DLF 102 111 117 126 2,961 3,005 DRREDDY 2,884 3,082 132 3,127 462 475 GRASIM 3,259 3,326 3,372 3,439 3,486 HCLTECH 1,454 1,539 1,564 GAIL 440 496 510 1,484 1,509 HDFCBANK 875 884 897 HDFC 996 1,013 1,024 1,042 1,053 3,215 3,314 906 2,922 3,021 HINDALCO 138 143 147 152 HINDUNILVR 717 737 748 769 1,533 1,564 HEROMOTOCO ICICIBANK 2,729 1,495 1,601 IDFC 135 140 144 149 INDUSINDBK 654 669 678 693 3,717 3,790 INFY 3,637 3,869 919 156 780 1,632 153 702 3,942 ITC 342 345 352 355 JINDALSTEL 113 137 151 175 KOTAKBANK 976 1,019 1,044 1,087 1,112 361 189 LT 1,448 1,501 1,530 1,583 1,613 LUPIN 1,325 1,357 1,378 1,410 1,431 M&M 1,196 1,228 1,255 1,287 1,313 MARUTI 2,904 3,040 3,115 3,251 3,326 NMDC 156 158 162 164 168 NTPC 138 142 145 150 153 ONGC 376 388 408 420 441 POWERGRID 130 135 138 143 PNB 884 909 942 967 RELIANCE 897 921 936 960 SSLT 225 237 245 258 2,547 2,581 SBIN SUNPHARMA TCS 2,520 782 2,375 794 804 2,413 2,453 2,608 817 2,492 146 1,000 975 266 2,641 827 2,532 496 508 84 86 87 89 91 439 448 455 465 472 TECHM 2,201 2,268 2,318 2,384 2,434 ULTRACEMCO 2,341 2,371 2,420 2,450 2,499 WIPRO 541 562 575 596 608 ZEEL 310 325 335 350 361 TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL 472 532 212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602 544 EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd FIIs forming long Index Futures; don't short Nifty spot closed at 7995.90 this week against a close of 7779.70 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.84 to 0.87 levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 10.21%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 15.02%. Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis PCR-OI has increased from 0.84 to 0.87 mainly due to Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 15.22%.to significant amount of unwinding in call options. 7700 put options 11.02%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 16.58% and added maximum buildup followed by good amount of unwinding that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 27.54%. Liquid counters in 7900-8100 strike prices. On the other hand in call options having very high HV are DLF, JPASSOCIAT, JINDALSTEL, 8200 strike price added some open interest followed by UNITECH and GMRINFRA. Stocks where HV are on lower significant unwinding in the range of 7700-8000 call options. side are HINDUNILVR, ITC, COLPAL, DABUR and HDFCBANK. Maximum buildup in current series has shifted from 8000 to 8100 call options & of put options is at 7700 strike price. Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis Total open interest of market has increased from Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 17.90 Rs2,14,628/- cr. to Rs2,23,491/- cr. Stock futures open interest points against the premium of 37.35 points to its spot. Next has increased from Rs54,189/- cr. to Rs58,120/- cr. Large cap month future is trading with premium of 61.50 points. Liquid names which added significant positions last week are GAIL, counters where CoC is high are JPPOWER, IBREALEST, SUNTV, M&M, MARUTI, BAJAJ-AUTO and KOTAKBANK. On the other NHPC and HDFCBANK. Stocks with negative CoC are SAIL, hand unwinding was visible in counters like SSLT, LT, COALINDIA, SRTRANSFIN, JUBLFOOD, UBL and ASIANPAINT. ACC and CAIRN. Derivative Strategy Scrip : ITC CMP : RsRs350.30 View: Mildly Bearish Buy/Sell Lot Size : 1000 Strategy: Ratio Put Spread Expected Payoff Qty Scrip Strike Price Series Option Ty p e Buy/Sell Rate ( Rs ) BUY 1000 ITC 350 OCT PE 4.00 SELL 2000 ITC 340 OCT PE 1.00 LBEP -Rs348/- UBEP - Rs332/Max. Risk: Unlimited If ITC continues to move below LBEP. Max. Profit: Rs8,000/- If ITC closes at Rs340 on expiry. NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if ITC moves in favorable direction and time value decays. Ratings (Returns) : Exercise Date (F & O) : 30th. Oct 2014 Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) Closing P ((Rs) Expected Profit/Loss 328 (Rs4.00) 334 Rs2.00 340 Rs8.00 346 Rs2.00 352 (Rs2.00) 358 (Rs2.00) Neutral (-5 to 5%) 212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602 EQLine Research and Services Pvt Ltd Disclaimer The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. This report does not purport to be a complete solicitation of offers to buy or sell any securities. Visitors to the site are advised to consult experts or study prospectus and other legal offer documents issued by companies before taking any decisions based on information provided in the site. Neither http://www.eqinfotech.com or EQLine nor its Directors or Analysts or Employees accept any liability whatsoever nor do they accept responsibility for any financial consequences arising from the use of the research or information provided herein. EQLINE RESEARCH 212/4B, Ramani Srinivasan IInd street, Venkateswara Nagar, New Perungalathur, Chennai 600063. Ph: +919444119602