Capital Market Presentation July 2011: Giving money away Hans-Jörg Naumer, Dennis Nacken, Stefan Scheurer Not for circulation to private investors Giving money away Nominal and real return of government bonds in Europe, USA and Japan (5-year maturity). 5-year German Bundesanleihe 5-year US-treasuries 5-jährige Japanese government note 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 2,16% 1,55% 0,50% 0,12% 0,42% 0,00% -0,50% -0,54% -1,00% -2,02% -1,50% -2,00% -2,50% Nominal return Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis Real return 2 Fear of escalation of European debt crisis Risk premia of 10y European government bonds vs. German government bonds (-2 years) 2 8 /0 6 /1 1 1 6 1 6 1 4 1 4 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 J A S O N D S p re a d I t a l y - G e rm a n y S p re a d S p a i n - G e rm a n S p re a d G re e c e - G e rm a J F (1 0 y ) y n y Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis M A M J J A S S p re a d S p re a d S p re a d O N D J P o rt u g a l - G e r Ire l a n d - G e rm B e l g i u m - G e r F m a a n m a M n y y n y A M J 3 Debt reduction in Europe: „Nothing‘s impossible!“ Europe: Successful debt reduction in the past 30 years (Debt/GDP ratio) 160,0 140,0 134,2 120,0 100,0 84,0 80,1 76,1 80,0 72,1 66,8 60,0 52,4 50,5 36,2 40,0 38,0 33,3 26,8 20,0 0,0 Belgium Denmark Netherlands Spain Sweden UK 1994-2007 1994-2007 1996-2002 1997-2007 1996-2008 1985-1990 before debt reduction after debt reduction Source:: ECB, "Major Public Debt Reductions. Lessons From The Past, Lessons For The Future", Working Paper 09/2010, Allianz GI Capital Market Analysis 4 Central banks: Lender of last resort? Treasury holdings of the FED and major foreign creditors (in USD billions) 1800 Purchases since August 2010 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 y m an G er ur g m bo xe Lu C an a da nd er la g on g H Sw itz Ko n ia us s R an iw Ba n ia ar ib C Ta nk s il Br az po rte Ex gd O il Ki n d ni te U rs om n pa Ja C hi n * U SFE D -200 a 0 Source: Federal Reserve, US Treasury Departement; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis 5 Fear of subsequent recession Sentiment indicators point to a cooling but still suggest expanding economic growth. 2 8 / 6 /1 1 1 4 0 1 4 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 8 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 6 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 0 2 ifo ifo ifo W W W o r ld o r ld o r ld 2 0 0 3 E c o n o m E c o n o m E c o n o m 2 0 0 4 ic ic ic S u r v S u r v S u r v Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis 2 0 0 5 e y : e y : e y : 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 B u s in e s s C lim a te C u r r e n t A s s e s s m e n t B u s in e s s E x p e c ta tio n s 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 S o u rc e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t r e a m 6 Germany is becoming the economic driving force Global economic engine is firing on (almost) all cylinders. 15 13,3 9,6 10 6,3 5,2 4,7 5 3,7 3,4 2,6 -0,1 0 -1,1 -1,2 -5 -10 -12,3 n Ja pa ai n Sp K U il Br az ce Fr an SA * U ly Ita ia us s R ro z on e ia Eu In d y m an G er C hi n a* -15 Industrial production April 2011 vs. previous year (in % ) * May 2011 Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis 7 The turnaround in monetary policy has taken place. Central banks will continue to tighten monetary policy, especially in the emerging markets. 2 8 /6 /1 1 1 6 1 6 1 4 1 4 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 E C B S h o rt T e rm R e p o R a te F e d F u n d s T a rg e t R a te J a p a n T a rg e t R a te Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 C h i n a T a rg e t R a te B ra z i l T a rg e t R a t e S o u rc e : T h o m 2 0 1 1 s o n D a ta s t re a m 8 When will the capital markets react? Yields of German, Japanese and US 10-year government bonds (30 years and 1 year) 28/6/11 28/6/11 14 14 4.00 4.00 12 12 3.50 3.50 10 10 3.00 3.00 8 8 2.50 2.50 6 6 2.00 2.00 4 4 1.50 1.50 2 2 1.00 1.00 0 0.50 0 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 Yield 10y German government bond Yield 10y US government bond Yield 10y Japanese government bond 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Source: T homson Datastream Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis J A S O N D Yield 10y German government bond Yield 10y US government bond Yield 10y Japanese government bond 0.50 J F M A M J Source: T homson Datastream 9 Investment theme: Flexible bond strategies The longer the maturity, the deeper the fall. If the rates go up, prices come down bond price interest rates Price movements of bonds when interest rates rise by x basis points (theoretical) Duration2 -3 -2 -1 1,47 0,99 0,50 2,90 1,96 5,70 3,85 Interest rates Duration2 Interest rate rise1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +50Bp -0,50 -0,99 -1,47 -1,93 -2,36 -2,77 -3,16 -3,53 0,99 +100Bp -0,99 -1,96 -2,90 -3,81 -4,65 -5,45 -6,21 -6,92 1,96 +200Bp -1,96 -3,85 -5,70 -7,44 -9,03 -10,54 -11,96 -13,27 bond prices It is possible to gain from a rise in interest rates: short duration Assumption: parallel shift of the yield curve based on Bund-yields by X basis points. 2 Macaulay Duration; In this example bond price movements are determined by the change of the fair value (present value of future cash flows) with an initial face and market value of 100 and different Macaulay durations. A success of the strategy can not be guaranteed and losses are not excluded. 10 Valuations are still in favour for equities Sharpe Ratio (excess return in relation to risk) has never been so high since 1989 for US-stocks. 2 8 / 6 /1 1 0 .3 0 0 .3 0 0 .2 5 0 .2 5 0 .2 0 0 .2 0 0 .1 5 0 .1 5 0 .1 0 0 .1 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 5 0 0 - 0 .0 5 - 0 .0 5 - 0 .1 0 - 0 .1 0 - 0 .1 5 - 0 .1 5 8 9 9 0 S h a r p e 9 1 R a tio 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 U S -S to c k s 9 6 9 7 ((S to c k 9 8 9 9 r e tu r n 0 0 0 1 0 2 - 1 0 y . U S 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 Tr e a s u r ie s )/V IX ) S o u rc e : T h o m s o n D a t a s t r e a m Source: Datastream; Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis 11 Decisive Insights: Bond investors seem to be paying a high price for the flight to “safe havens”. Real returns on 5year German and US bonds have recently slipped into negative territory. While the markets will presumably continue to be held in thrall by Europe’s debt crisis for a while yet, the basic global economic trend seems to be upwards. In view of the continued high levels of uncertainty on the markets, it could be advisable to maintain a somewhat more defensive portfolio orientation. But the attractive valuations of equities compared to bonds, the increase in global Merger & Acquisitions speculation, the prevailing desperation of investors to find a home for their money and the risk of a turnaround in interest rates, all still point to a recommendation to stay slightly overweight in equities. Equities should strategically remain overweight compared to bonds. 12 www.allianzglobalinvestors.de/capitalmarketanalysis 13 Disclaimer This presentation has been issued and approved by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH, a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors AG (part of the Allianz Group). 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