1. sports
2. cricket

25/04/15'
Pelle Guldborg Hansen,
Behavioural Scientist, Ph.D. / CBIT, Roskilde University
Director of ISSP – The Initiative for Science, Society & Policy
Member of The Prevention Council, Danish Diabetic Assoc.
Chairman of The Danish Nudge Network
Head of INUDGEYOU team
twitter: @peguha / April 22, Parasollen 2015
Katrine'Skov,'
Health'&'Nutr.'
Karsten'Schmidt,'RU'
Business'Authori<es'
Andreas'Jespersen,'RU'
Consum.'&'Comp.'
Johannes'Schuldt,'
Experimental'Design''
Andreas'Rathman,''
Experimental'Design''
Jon'Wegener,'CBS'
Neuroscience'
Simon'Snoghøj'
Intern'
Henrik'Boensvang'
InfoStorms'
Simon'Jespersen'
Web'
www.inudgeyou.com
1'
25/04/15'
?
indhold
1.  Hvad er et nudge?
2.  Hvorfor virker det?
3.  Adfærdsindsigter der kan forandre
4.  Hvordan arbejder man med nudging?
Hvad er ’et nudge’?
Cognitive dissonance - the mental stress or
discomfort experienced by an individual who
holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or
values at the same time, or is confronted by new
information that conflicts with existing beliefs,
ideas, or values.
Diffusion of responsibility – a
sociopsychological phenomenon whereby a
person is less likely to take responsibility for
action or inaction when others are present.
Expectation effects –tendencies to form
expectations on the basis of availability, recency,
motivation and other effects, rather than by
Bayesian reasoning.
Inattention – tendency to ignore non-salient
objects or attributes
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
2'
25/04/15'
Population
Control
n = 1.200
Intervention
n = 8.000
Businesses reported not to have
the necessary permission
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Randomised controlled trial
running over 12 months with
1.200 businesses in initial round
as a control
Comparison of reaction and
compliance rates between the two
groups
ERST%Le(er%experiment%2013%
80.0%'
70.0%'
60.0%'
58.4%'
50.0%'
40.0%'
30.5%'
30.0%'
20.0%'
10.0%'
0.0%'
1'
2'
Serie1'
Serie2'
3'
25/04/15'
nudge
”Alt det der ikke
burde betyde noget i
princippet…, men gør
det i praksis”
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Source: Hansen, PG (2014) Nudge and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove?
Forthcoming in The European Journal of Risk Regulation 2015
Kognitiv
psykologi
Adfærdsøkonomi
ABsC
Applied
Behavioral
Science
nudge
Social psykologi
Kognitiv design
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
4'
25/04/15'
Handling
B!
Handling
A!
Formodninger!
Ønsker!
Værdier!
Information!
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Customer Satisfaction
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN FOR MUSICAL INFLUENCES ON PRODUCT CHOICE
SAMPLE AND SETTING
EXPERIMENTAL CONDITIONS
Predicted effects – measured in 1-9 lierkert skales
N = 143
7.5'
7.1'
6.9'
7'
6.5'
6.5'
6.2'
5.9'
6'
5.7'
5.5'
Subjects consisted of 87% staff, 9% grad
students, and 4% off campus. Mean age = 43.
Six menu-items were selected for descriptive
manipulation, and were rotated between ’basic
description’ and ’descriptive labels’. Each item
were available 6 times over a six week period
Subjects filled out single-item questionnaries
after consuming food
Wansink, B., Painter, J., & Van Ittersum, K. (2001). Descriptive menu labels’ effect on sales. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant
Administration Quarterly, 42(6), 68-72
5'
AW'towards'menu'item'
AW'towards'restaurant'
Repurchase'iten<on'
Wansink, B., Painter, J., & Van Ittersum, K. (2001). Descriptive menu labels’ effect on sales. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant
Administration Quarterly, 42(6), 68-72
5'
25/04/15'
?
Handling
A!
Handling
B!
Hvorfor virker ’et nudge’?
Ønsker!
Værdier!
Formodninger!
Information!
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Dual Process Theory
1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
Sloman'S.A.'(1996)'The'empirical'case'for'two'systems'of'reasoning.'Psychological+Bulle/n,'119,'3]22.'
Kahneman'D.'(2003)'A'perspec<ve'on'judgement'and'choice.'American+Psychologist.'58,'697]720.'
Evans,'J.'(2003).'"In'two'minds:'dual]process'accounts'of'reasoning".'TRENDS+in+Cogni/ve+Sciences'7'(10).'
Stanovich,'K'E.;'West,'R'F.'(2000).'"Individual'difference'in'reasoning:'implica<ons'for'the'ra<onality'debate?".'Behavioural+and+
Brain+Sciences'23:'645–726.'
5.  Stupple,' E.;' Waterhouse' (2009).' "Nega<ons' In' Syllogis<c' Reasoning:' Evidence' for' a' Heuris<c' ]' analy<c' Conflict".' The+ Quarterly+
Journal+of+Experimental+Psychology'62'(8).'
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
6'
25/04/15'
Kahneman, D (2002) Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice, Prize Lecture, December 8.
34 x 52 = ___
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Attentional filter and control
Central
executive
mode
Default
mode
(mind-wandering or
task negative network)
(task-positive network)
switch
Attentional filter
(Where’s Waldo? network)
filter, saliency detector, vigilance mode
frontal lobes and sensory cortices
Controlled by nicotin receptors in substantia
innominata
Good+introduc/on:+Daniel+J.+Levi/n+(2014)+
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
7'
25/04/15'
(1) Kemoterapi med 80% chance for at
overleve?
(2) Strålebehandling med 20% risiko for at
dø?
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Shiv, B. & A. Fedorikhin (1999) Heart and Mind in Conflict: the Interplay of Affect and Cognition in Consumer Decision
Making, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 26, No. 3 (December 1999) (pp. 278-292)
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
8'
25/04/15'
value
110 kr
100 kr
now
1
1 year
time
Hyperbolic Discounting
Nudge
Pelle'Guldborg'Hansen©'
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Hansen, P.G. & Hendricks (2013) Info-storms. New York: Copernicus Books.
9'
25/04/15'
Decision-making and behavioral biases
Anchoring – the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of
information when making decisions.
Attentional Bias – implicit cognitive bias defined as the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in
one's environment to preferentially draw and hold attention.
Backfire effect - Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them.
Bandwagon effect – the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe)
the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior.
Bias blind spot – the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people.[2]
Choice-supportive bias – the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.
Opmærksomhed
Afsøgning
Hukommelse
[3]
Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's
preconceptions.[4]
Congruence bias – the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to
tests of possible alternative hypotheses.
Contrast effect – the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared
with a recently observed contrasting object.[5]
Denomination effect – the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small
amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).[6]
Distinction bias – the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them
simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[7]
Empathy gap - the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself
or others.
Endowment effect – "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they
would be willing to pay to acquire it".[8]
Experimenter's or Expectation bias – the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and
publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve,
discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those
expectations.[9]
Focusing effect – the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error
in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.[10]
Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that
information is presented.
Hostile media effect - the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one's own strong
partisan views.
Hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more
immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both
payoffs are.[11]
Illusion of control – the tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external
events.[12]
Impact bias – the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling
states.[13]
Information bias – the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[14]
Irrational escalation – the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision,
based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was
probably wrong.
Loss aversion – "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with
acquiring it".[15] (see also Sunk cost effects and Endowment effect).
Mere exposure effect – the tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity
with them.[16]
Money illusion – the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its
value in terms of purchasing power.[17]
Moral credential effect – the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent
prejudice.
Negativity bias – the tendency to pay more attention and give more weight to negative than positive
experiences or other kinds of information.
Neglect of probability – the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision
under uncertainty.[18]
Normalcy bias – the refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.
Omission bias – the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful
omissions (inactions).[19]
Outcome bias – the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the
quality of the decision at the time it was made.
Planning fallacy – the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.[13]
Post-purchase rationalization – the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that
a purchase was a good value.
Pseudocertainty effect – the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is
positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.[20]
Reactance – the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a
perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.
Restraint bias – the tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of
temptation.
Selective perception – the tendency for expectations to affect perception.
Semmelweis reflex – the tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm.[21]
Social comparison bias – the tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential
Begrænset Opmærksomhed
Begrænset Afsøgning
Begrænset Hukommelse
Begrænset Processering
Begrænset Perspektivering
Processering
Perspektivering
Indlevelse
Viljestyrke
nudge
Et nudge er en funktion af ethvert forsøg på at påvirke
menneskers vurdering, valg eller adfærd i en forudsigelig retning
(1) under antagelsen af at kognitive bias, rutiner og vaner påvirker
vores individuelle og sociale adfærd, og (2) som virker ved at
gøre brug af disse som en integreret del af sådanne forsøg.
Det betyder bl.a. at et nudge fungerer uafhængigt af
1) 
begrænsninger af valgmuligheder, eller
Begrænset Indlevelse
2) 
Begrænset Viljestyrke
ændringer ved handlingsalternativernes omkostninger (herunder økonomi, tid,
besvær, social sanktioner, o. lign.)
3) 
ny informationsgivning
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Source: Hansen, PG (2014) Nudge and Libertarian Paternalism: Does the hand fit the glove?
Forthcoming in The European Journal of Risk Regulation 2015
10'
25/04/15'
Hvordan får vi vores ansatte til at
se på Feriefondens webside, før
de tjekker andre udbydere?
Adfærdsindsigter der kan
forandre
Table 2.3 Five search heuristics with a very brief statement of how they can help with
search!
Heuristic
what it does well
what it does not do so well
Try them all
Make the person well
informed!
Minimize the cost of search
Say when to stop
Say what choice to try next!
Suggest what choice to
try next
Give a forward looking plan
of search!
!
Satisficing
!
!
Directed cognition
!
Elimination by aspects Say what choices not to try Say when to stop searching!
!
Search for x minutes
Give certainty how long
search will last
React to success or failure
in search!
Source: Cartwright, Edward (2011) Behavioural Economics, Routledge, p. 31 !
11'
25/04/15'
Hvordan får jeg folk til at
gøre den basale
handling x?
præcis hvilken handling
ønsker du?
Så hvad er nyt ved ‘nudge’?
12'
25/04/15'
Fly'in'the'urinal'
triggere
80%%'
LeWers'about'digital'post'
•  23.000'leWers'were'
unable'to'be'delivered'
2014
•  172.500'DKK'lost'on'
postage'
Reducing costs by enhancing
data quality in the Danish
Business Register
Collaboration between Danish Business Authorities and ISSP Applied Behavioural Science Team
13'
25/04/15'
How'do'we''
find'the'companies'with'wrong'addresses'when'we'cannot'send'them'
a'leWer?'
Results'
Prompt'
Changes'
14'
25/04/15'
Hvad hvis de ikke gør
det alligevel?
”gør det let”
adfærdsforandring
MOTIVATION
KOGNITIV BELASTNING
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
15'
25/04/15'
Når der ikke er en let
vej… men de ved godt
at de burde, men de gør
det ikke.
16'
25/04/15'
N.'J.'GOLDSTEIN,'R.'B.'CIALDINI,'V.'GRISKEVICIUS'(2008);'”A'Room'with'a'Viewpoint:'Using'Social'Norms'to'Mo<vate'Environmental'
Conserva<on'in'Hotels”'Journal+of+Consumer+Research,+October+2008.'
Experimental conditions
Sample
Environmental
message on towelrack
Predicted effects
Standard reuse rate
Control
1,058 hotel guests over a
80 day period
Descriptive norm
messages on towelrack
Increase in towel
reuse
Intervention
Part of sample was removed for various
reasonsCollected from a mid-priced chainhotel in the southwest U.S.
Nudge
Rooms were randomly assigned to either
condition. Environmental messages are an
industry standard
Measurement of towel reuse participation
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
N.'J.'GOLDSTEIN,'R.'B.'CIALDINI,'V.'GRISKEVICIUS'(2008);'”A'Room'with'a'Viewpoint:'Using'Social'Norms'to'Mo<vate'Environmental'
Conserva<on'in'Hotels”'Journal+of+Consumer+Research,+October+2008.'
50%
Participation in towel reuse program by percentage
N = 428
48%
46%
44%
42%
44%
40%
Ikke handlinger, stop
handlinger etc.
38%
36%
34%
35%
32%
30%
Environmental'
Message'
Descrip<ve'norms'
'message'
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
17'
25/04/15'
Smokeless Terminals
Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013)
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Smokeless Terminals
Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013)
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Smokeless Terminals
Hansen PG; Schmidt K; Andersen, L; Skov KL (2013)
18'
25/04/15'
37%
15%
12%
3%
'
85%
48%
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
½
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
10%m%
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
19'
25/04/15'
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Subs@tu@ng%injunc@on%for%prohibi@on%decreases%inconsiderate%
smoking%by%more%than%50%%in%a%field%experiment%
60.00%'
56.28%'
50.00%'
40.00%'
30.00%'
26.46%'
20.00%'
10.00%'
0.00%'
Pre]'
N=%1695
• 
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Post]'
%
%%%%
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%N%=%1489%%
Subs/tu/on+was+achieved+by+three+layered+nudgeTinterven/on+based+on+intui/ve+coding,+reTarrangement+of+
environmental+affordances+and+publicly+salient+(spotlight+effect)+injunc/on+zones.'+++'
Source:'Hansen,'Schmidt,'Andersen'and'Skov'(forthcoming)''
20'
25/04/15'
Hvordan får jeg folk til at
udføre en serie af basale
handlinger?
tjeklister
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
21'
25/04/15'
Nudge
Nudge
Nudge
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
22'
25/04/15'
?
Hvordan arbejder man med
nudging?
©
Nudge
Pelle Guldborg Hansen
twitter: @peguha / www.inudgeyou.com
BASEOline%
Analysis (diagnosis)
Experiments
!  Hypothesizing!
!  Triangulation!
!  Hypothesis tests !
! 
! 
! 
! 
!
!
Prototyping!
Lab experiments!
Field experiments!
implementation!
B'
Behavioural mapping
!
Solution mapping
!
!  Identification!
!  Behavioural Reduction!
!  Behavioural patterns!
!  Research!
!  Adaptation!
!  Ethics!
23'
25/04/15'
!
!
!
!
!
!
Blog:!
www.iNudgeYou.com!
!
!
!
24'