1. food and drink
2. desserts and baking

Shopper Insight Focus Report, Flour
Rachael Arding, Project Executive
HGCA and VCR² Kent Business School Report
Contents
• Providing Shopper Insights
• Objectives
• Data Sharing Restrictions
• Executive Summary
• Analysis
• Appendix
Health Warning!
• The dunnhumby data offers unparalleled breadth and depth but it
does not tell us why shoppers behave the way they do
• Further research is warranted in order to understand the
purchasing drivers (e.g. attitudes, perceptions, motivations)
before changes are made to the marketing mix (product, price,
place, promotion) or resources are deployed for the development
of new products
Providing Shopper Insights
Providing Shopper Insights
• Collaboration between HGCA and the Centre for Value
Chain Research at Kent Business School since 2005
• Sponsorship of PhD students
• Access to panel of 1.4 million supermarket shoppers
• Provide generic and tailor made insight reports for the
industry free of charge
Centre for Value Chain Research
Objectives
Objectives
Provide an overview of shopper behaviour and shopper
segmentation for Flour category
• Identify opportunities for market/product development
• Highlight potential areas for further research
Demonstrate the breadth and depth of shopper insight that
is available to farmers and small food producers
Data Sharing Restrictions
Data Sharing Restrictions
This information is supplied by Kent Business School
on the strict understanding that recipients use it
exclusively as part of their own marketing and product
development activities. Under no circumstances should
the information provided be shared with third parties,
without our prior consent. Failure to comply with these
requirements will result in the organisations involved
being denied further (subsidized) access to the
dunnhumby data and may jeopardise this service
provision for farmers and small food producers in the
future.
Executive Summary
Executive Summary (1)
Shopper Behaviour
• Specialty flour including bread mixes is the largest category share, by value, at 41% of the
category.
• Impressive sales growth for the ‘Free from’ range which may be the result of the increasing
interest of shoppers for health issues. However, due to a still low figure for penetration, there
may be opportunities to launch new products and or adapt the offer to shoppers.
• Customer penetration figures are all lower than 50%, indicating that such a basic cooking
ingredient as flour is not widely used.
• Repeat rates are fairly strong suggesting there are some loyal customers who buy these
products. However there are still room for increasing these figures for example in the Organic
subgroup.
Regional Hotspots
• The best performing store has a penetration figure of just above 33% which denotes how the
category struggles to attract more shoppers.
Executive Summary (2)
Shopper Segmentation
• Life-stage
• Pensioners and Older shoppers enjoy cooking activities are the segments of shoppers more
likely to buy flour products
• Specialty products and Free from range are appealing to younger shoppers
• Lifestyle
• Less Affluent shoppers are mostly appealed by Plain and Self raising alternatives
• With a value added and a corresponding premium the specialised ranges attract the more
affluent shoppers.
• Region
• East England county dominates the Plain and Self raising categories.
• Northern Ireland and Scotland perform best for the specialised range
Executive Summary (3)
Basket Analysis
• Other ready meals and convenience foods are closely associated with purchases of Flour
products.
• Yeast and other baking products are mostly bought alongside flour products which
indicates a clear purpose for a shopping mission.
• The difference in products bought along with organic flour products only, is not that widely
marked.
Analysis
Composition of Flour Category
Composition of Flour Category
Free From Range Flour (4 products)
Organic Flour (10 products)
Plain Flour (15 products)
Self Raising Flour (14 products)
Specialty Flour (50 products)
Analysis
Key Measures
Key Measures
• Category Share
• The share of sales for each product sub-group as a % of total category sales
(Highlights the relative importance of different product sub-groups)
• Sales Growth
• Year on year growth of sales, by volume and value
(Illustrates performance of different sub-groups over time)
• Penetration
• % of shoppers who have made at least one purchase in the last 52wks
(Indicates scope for attracting new buyers).
• Frequency of Purchase
• The average number of times a purchase as been made in the last 52wks
(Indicates scope for increasing product usage)
• Repeat Purchase Rate
• % of shoppers who have made at least two visits to the category in the last 52wks
(Gives an indication of product performance and shopper loyalty)
Key Measures: Flour (52 wks to 28-Dec-08)




Specialty flour including bread mixes is the largest category share by value at 41% of the category.
Impressive sales growth for the Free from range which may be the result of the increasing interest of shoppers for health issues.
However, the penetration of the subgroup is still very low therefore the impact on the overall category growth remains limited.
Flour being a basic commodity we would expect a higher figure for Customer Penetration for these products. This may denote the
disappearance of the traditional shopper type cooking from scratch.
Repeat rates are fairly strong suggesting there are some loyal customers who buy these products. However there are still room for
increasing these figures for example in the Organic subgroup
Free from range flour
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Organic flour
Plain flour
Self raising flour
Specialty flour
2-Feb-09
19-Jan-09
5-Jan-09
22-Dec-08
8-Dec-08
24-Nov-08
10-Nov-08
27-Oct-08
13-Oct-08
29-Sep-08
15-Sep-08
1-Sep-08
18-Aug-08
4-Aug-08
21-Jul-08
7-Jul-08
23-Jun-08
9-Jun-08
26-May-08
12-May-08
28-Apr-08
14-Apr-08
31-Mar-08
17-Mar-08
3-Mar-08
18-Feb-08
4-Feb-08
21-Jan-08
7-Jan-08
24-Dec-07
10-Dec-07
26-Nov-07
12-Nov-07
29-Oct-07
15-Oct-07
1-Oct-07
17-Sep-07
3-Sep-07
20-Aug-07
6-Aug-07
23-Jul-07
9-Jul-07
25-Jun-07
11-Jun-07
28-May-07
14-May-07
30-Apr-07
16-Apr-07
2-Apr-07
19-Mar-07
5-Mar-07
19-Feb-07
Weekly Sales Trends: Flour categories (104 wks
to 28-Dec-08)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Analysis
Shopper Segmentation
Shopper Segmentation
• Shopper profiles are presented in index form, with 100 representing the
average for all supermarket shoppers
• Over-indexing segments purchase a disproportionately high share – they find them
appealing
• Under-indexing segments purchase a disproportionately low share – they find
them less appealing.
• In looking for potential target segments (those which are under or over
performing) attention is drawn to those which over-index or under-index by at
least 10%
• Further segmentation, by geo-demographics and detailed lifestyle can be
provided upon request
Lifestage Segmentation: Total flour (12 weeks to
15.02.2009)
Young adults are less buying
into the flour category
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Flour-Total
Older Adults
Older Families
Young Adults
Young Families
Pensioners
Mixed
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Young families are more likely
to buy flour than other
shoppers
Lifestyle Segmentation: Total flour (12 weeks to
15.02.2009)
Mid market shoppers are slightly less appealed by Flour than
other lifestyles
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Flour-Total
Up Market
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Mid-Market
Less Affluent
Regional Segmentation: Total flour (12 weeks
to 15.02.2009)
140
120
100
80
60
40
Thighs are the only chicken
part to appeal to Pensioners
20
0
Flour-Total
Northern Ireland
Central Scotland
North East
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Borders
East England
Northern Scotland
Southern
Lancashire
South West
Wales and the West
London
Yorkshire
Midlands
Lifestage Segmentation: Plain and Self raising
flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Self raising flour appeal
strongly to Pensioners
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Plain Flour
Older Adults
Older Families
Self Raising Flour
Young Adults
Young Families
Pensioners
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Young families are more likely
to buy Plain flour than other
shoppers
Mixed
Lifestyle Segmentation: Plain and Self raising
flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Plain flour appeals to Up market shoppers whilst Self raising
products tend to be preferred by Less Affluent shoppers
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Plain Flour
Up Market
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Self Raising Flour
Mid-Market
Less Affluent
Regional Segmentation: Plain and Self raising
flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Both types of flour are most
likely to be bought in East
England and South West.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Plain Flour
Northern Ireland
Central Scotland
North East
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Borders
East England
Northern Scotland
Thighs are the only chicken
part to appeal to Pensioners
Self Raising Flour
Southern
Lancashire
South West
Wales and the West
London
Yorkshire
Midlands
Lifestage Segmentation: Free from range,
organic and specialty flour (12 weeks to
15.02.2009)
These types of flour are most likely to be bought
by Young families and appeal less to Pensioners
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Free From Range Flour
Older Adults
Older Families
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Organic Flour
Young Adults
Specialty Flour
Young Families
Pensioners
Mixed
Lifestyle Segmentation: Free from range,
organic and specialty flour
(12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
These types of flour are more likely to be bought
by Up market shoppers very weak appeal to
less-affluent shoppers
250
200
150
100
50
0
Free From Range Flour
Up Market
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Organic Flour
Mid-Market
Specialty Flour
Less Affluent
Regional Segmentation: Free from range,
organic and specialty flour
(12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Northern Scotland and South West are the
counties where these subgroups are the
most likely to be bought
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Free From Range Flour
Northern Ireland
Central Scotland
North East
Organic Flour
Borders
East England
Northern Scotland
Southern
Lancashire
South West
Specialty Flour
Wales and the West
London
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Northern Ireland shoppers are
not buying into the Organic
range flour,
Yorkshire
Midlands
Analysis
Areas for potential further research
Areas for Potential Further Research
This report reveals several areas which might warrant further
research:
• Would marketing campaigns of ‘Free from’ range products be likely to increase
the customer penetration?
• Northern Ireland shoppers are not buying into the Organic range flour, it might
be interesting to look further this issue as to identify reasons and adapt
marketing strategies.
• How can the category appeal to other than Pensioners shoppers and
encourage cooking from scratch activities.
• Central Scotland county under performs for every subgroup, would a focussed
awareness campaign appeal to new shoppers?
Appendix
the dunnhumby data
• 2yrs of weekly supermarket purchases
• 1.4 million shoppers
• Representative of 40% of UK households
• Over 30,000 food products
• Segmented by;
• Lifestage (young adults, young families, older families, older adults,
pensioners)
• Lifestyle (Up-market, Mid-Market and Less Affluent shoppers)
• Region (13 TV advertising regions)
The dunnhumby data: Lifestage Segmentation
%
shoppers
Age & family
Young Adults
16%
Adults aged 20-39
with no children
Older Adults
14%
Adults aged 40-59
with no children
Young families
15%
Adults with all
children under 10
16%
Adults with one or
more child over 10
9%
Adults over 60
with no children
28%
Multigenerational
households
Lifestage segment
Older families
Pensioners
Mixed
The dunnhumby data: Lifestyle Segmentation
Lifestyle segment
Finer Foods
Healthy
Convenience
Price Sensitive
Mainstream
Traditional
%
shoppers
17%
Key Characteristics
time conscious, enjoy luxury products and
are willing to experiment
9%
interested in organic, environmental
benefits, low fat/sugar and calorie conscious
22%
regard food as fuel, are busy and rely heavily
on the microwave
16%
look primarily for value and rely on staple
foods
26%
have broad tastes, favour established brands
and are influenced by the needs of children
10%
enjoy the art of cooking but rely on a fixed
shopping list so less likely to buy on impulse
The dunnhumby data: Regional Segmentation
ISBA (TV advertising) regions
• North Scotland – STV North (Aberdeen, Dundee)
• Central Scotland – STV Central (Glasgow, Edinburgh)
• Borders – Border Television
• North East – Tyne Tees Television
• North West/ Lancashire – Granada Television
• Northern Ireland - UTV
• Yorkshire – Yorkshire Television
• Midlands – Carlton Central
• East England – Anglia Television
• London – LWT
• Wales and the West – HTV Wales & HTV West
• South and South East – Meridian Broadcasting
• South West – Carlton West Country
The dunnhumby data: Regional Segmentation
Region
%
shoppers
Region
%
shoppers
London
20%
Scotland
9%
Midlands
15%
Yorkshire
8%
Southern England
11%
South West
4%
Lancashire (NW)
10%
North East
3%
East of England
9%
Northern Ireland
3%
Wales & the West
9%
Contact Details: HGCA
• For further Information about how your business can obtain more
information like this please contact:
Rachael Arding
HGCA Market Development Project Executive
Email: [email protected]
Telephone: 020 7520 3930
Contact Details: VCR² and Kent Business School
• For further information about the Centre for Value Chain
Research at Kent Business School, please contact:
Melanie Felgate
Centre for Value Chain Research, Kent Business School,
University of Kent, Canterbury, CT27PE
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 01227824766
Website: www.kent.ac.uk/kbs/cvcr
Contact Details: VCR² and Kent Business School
• For further information about the Centre for Value Chain
Research at Kent Business School, please contact:
Professor Andrew Fearne
Centre for Food Chain Research, Kent Business School,
University of Kent, Canterbury, CT27PE
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 01227824840
Website: www.kent.ac.uk/kbs/cvcr
Thank you