November 2014
Monthly Forecast
2
Status Update since our
October Forecast
4
Counter-Terrorism
5
Iraq
7
Burundi
8
Liberia
10 South Sudan
12 Sudan (Darfur)
13 Somalia
14 Guinea-Bissau
15 Libya
17 Syria
18 Lebanon (UNIFIL)
20 UN Policing
21 Sanctions
23 Kosovo
24 DPRK (North Korea)
25 Bosnia and
Herzegovina
27 International Court of
Justice
28 Notable Dates
30 October 2014
This report is available online at
securitycouncilreport.org.
Overview
Australia will hold the presidency of the Council in November. The country’s Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will preside over an open debate
on global efforts to counter terrorism, violent
extremism and the growing threat of foreign terrorist ﬁghters. The Secretary-General will brief.
Debates will be held on:
• Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a brieﬁng by
High Representative Valentin Inzko; and
• Kosovo, with a brieﬁng by Special Representative Farid Zarif.
Brieﬁngs are expected on:
• cross-cutting thematic issues in UN Policing
by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping
Operations Hervé Ladsous;
• issues related to UN Sanctions across the different sanctions regimes, by Under-SecretaryGeneral for Political Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman;
• developments concerning ICC cases in Libya
by Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda; and
• the work of the 1540 Committee on non-proliferation and weapons of mass destruction,
by its chair, Ambassador Oh Joon (Republic
of Korea).
Brieﬁngs, followed by consultations, are
expected on:
• developments in Burundi, by Parfait OnangaAnyanga, the head BNUB and by Ambassador
Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the PBC
Burundi conﬁguration;
• developments in Liberia, by Ladsous, and
Ambassador Mårten Grunditz (Sweden),
chair of the PBC Liberia Conﬁguration;
• the Middle East, by Assistant SecretaryGeneral for Political Affairs Jens Anders
Toyberg-Frandzen;
• the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambassador María Cristina
Perceval (Argentina);
• the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the work
of UNIOGBIS by its head Miguel Trovoada
and the chair of the PBC Guinea-Bissau conﬁguration Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar
Patriota (Brazil);
• the situation in Iraq by the Special Representative Nikolay Mladenov and the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad
Al Hussein; and
• the humanitarian situation in Syria, most likely
by Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos.
Brieﬁngs in consultations are likely on:
• destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by
Special Adviser Sigrid Kaag;
• the work of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, by its chair, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas
(Luxembourg); and
• implementation of resolution 1701 on Lebanon, by Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly.
Formal sessions will be needed to adopt resolutions to renew:
• the mandate of UNMISS in South Sudan;
• the mandate of UNIOGBIS in Guinea-Bissau;
• counter-piracy measures for Somalia; and
• the authorisation for the EU-led multinational
stabilisation force in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In November, the Council will also hold an
election (concurrently with the General Assembly)
for ﬁve judges of the International Court of Justice.
The president of the Council will present its
annual report to the General Assembly late in
the month.
The annual Council workshop with newly
elected members organised by Finland is also
planned for November.
A public wrap-up session is scheduled for the
end of the month.
Throughout the month members will be following closely events in the Central African
Republic, Mali, Ukraine and Yemen as well as
events related to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa,
further meetings may be required. •
For daily insights by SCR on evolving
Security Council actions please
subscribe to our “What’s In Blue”
series at whatsinblue.org or follow
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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
1
Status Update since our October Forecast
Mali
On 3 October, Council members issued a
press statement condemning an attack on
MINUSMA in which nine Nigerien peacekeepers were killed (SC/11587) and on
7 October, another press statement condemned an attack in Kidal which killed one
Senegalese peacekeeper (SC/11591). On
8 October, Under-Secretary-General for
Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous presented the
most recent Mali report (S/2014/692) and
reported that MINUSMA is no longer operating in a peacekeeping environment. The
Foreign Minister of Mali, Abdoulaye Diop,
also addressed the Council during the public session (S/PV.7274). On 17 October, the
Council welcomed the scheduled resumption
on 19 October of the inter-Malian negotiation process in Algiers (SC/11604).
the report of the AU Investigation Committee on the assassination of the Ngok-Dinka
paramount chief in May 2013 to be released.
Elnor argued that Abyei remains part of
Sudan until a ﬁnal settlement is reached.
Peacekeeping
On 9 October, the Council was briefed by
Military Advisor Lieutenant General Maqsood Ahmed from the Department of Peacekeeping Operations and force commanders
Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz (Brazil) of MONUSCO in the DRC,
Major General Jean Bosco Kazura (Rwanda)
of MINUSMA in Mali and Lieutenant General Iqbal Singh Singha (India) of UNDOF in the Golan Heights. They presented,
respectively, on the concept and implications of the protection of civilians, expectations from military contingents in a changed
security environment and accomplishment of
Ukraine
On 3 October, Council members issued a traditional mandates in a changed politicopress statement condemning the killing of an military environment (S/PV.7275).
ICRC staff member in Ukraine (SC/11588).
On 24 October, the Council was briefed Yemen
by Assistant Secretary-General for Political Council members issued a press statement
Affairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco and Assis- on 10 October condemning a bomb attack in
tant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Sana’a that killed at least 47 people, as well as
Ivan Šimonović on the political and human condemning attacks against Yemeni security
rights situation in Ukraine, respectively (S/ forces on 8 and 9 October (SC/11595). On
13 October, Special Adviser Jamal Benomar
PV.7287).
briefed Council members in consultations.
Afterwards, in elements to the press, CounSudan-South Sudan
On 7 October, Assistant-Secretary-General cil members expressed their determination
for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet briefed to address increasing terrorist attacks by AlCouncil members in consultations on the Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, urged implelatest UNISFA report (S/2014/709). Mulet mentation of the national peace and partnersaid unilateral actions by the parties have ship agreement, welcomed Khalid Bahah’s
not been helpful and referred to the Ngok- nomination as prime minister and agreed to
Dinka’s decision to establish a committee to consider urgently evidence to possibly sanclobby for international support for October tion spoilers.
2013 referendum, which was not recognised
by Sudan, but during which the Ngok-Dinka Central African Republic
voted overwhelmingly to join South Sudan. On 10 October, Council members issued a
Additionally, he mentioned the instability press statement (SC/11596), condemning
that could be caused by Sudan’s intention to an attack against a MINUSCA convoy in
include Abyei among the areas that will par- Bangui, in which one peacekeeper was killed
ticipate in the country’s 2015 national elec- and several others injured. Council memtions. The Council met again on 14 October bers expressed concern about the upsurge
to adopt resolution 2179 extending UNIS- of violence and strongly condemned all
FA’s mandate until 28 February 2015. Dur- attacks against civilians and acts of violence
ing the meeting, Ambassador Francis Deng between communities. The statement supof South Sudan and Ambassador Rahamtalla ported the transitional authority’s call for
Mohamed Osman Elnor of Sudan addressed all armed groups to implement the 23 July
the Council (S/PV.7276). Deng called for agreement to cease hostilities and violence.
2
whatsinblue.org
On 21 October, the Council adopted resolution 2181, extending the mandate of the EU
operation in the CAR until 15 March 2015.
The next day, Council members were briefed
under “any other business” on recent events
in CAR by Special Representative Babacar
Gaye via video-teleconference.
Haiti
On 14 October, the Security Council adopted resolution 2180 extending the mandate
of the MINUSTAH until 15 October 2015.
It authorized a reduction in the mission’s
military component from 5,021 personnel
to 2,370 while keeping the police contingent
unchanged at 2,601 as recommended by the
Secretary-General in his August report to the
Council (S/2014/617). While the resolution
was adopted by consensus, Argentina and
Chile gave an explanation of vote, expressing
regret that they had not been in a position to
co-sponsor the resolution as their concerns
about the recommended accelerated drawdown had not been fully taken into account.
Guatemala and Ecuador also took the ﬂoor
as countries contributing troops to MINUSTAH to express similar concerns, emphasising
that decisions about peacekeeping operations
must take the opinions of troop contributing
countries into account (S/PV.7277).
Ebola
On 14 October, the Council was briefed on
the Ebola epidemic in West Africa by Special
Representative Anthony Banbury, the head
of the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency
Response (UNMEER), Under-SecretaryGeneral for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous
and Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Tayé-Brook Zerihoun (S/PV.7279).
The next day, Council members issued a press
statement reiterating the Council’s determination that the Ebola outbreak constituted a
threat to international peace and security and
requested that UN peacekeeping operations
and political missions in West Africa closely
collaborate with UNMEER (SC/11602).
Golan Heights (UNDOF)
On 20 October, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet briefed
Council members in consultations, followingup a 19 September presidential statement (S/
PRST/2014/19) that requested an update on
the steps necessary to maintain UNDOF’s
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Status Update since our October Forecast (con’t)
ability to carry out its mandate while adjusting the mission’s posture to minimise risk to
personnel. Discussions included the possible
use of new technologies, such as unmanned,
unarmed aerial vehicles or satellite imagery, to
carry out monitoring tasks without exposing
personnel to risk. Mulet said that both Israel
and Syria were reluctant to grant authorisation for the use of such new technologies.
Working Methods
On 23 October, the Security Council held its
ﬁfth annual open debate on working methods (S/PV.7285). Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), the chair of the
Informal Working Group on Documentation
and Other Procedural Questions, opened the
debate. In line with the open debate’s concept paper (S/2014/725), the Ombudsperson
for the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, Kimberly Prost, and the Prosecutor
Israel/Palestine
The Council met for its quarterly debate on of the International Criminal Court, Fatou
the Middle East on 21 October (S/PV.7281). Bensouda, briefed with participation by 40
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon briefed fol- member states.
lowing a trip to the region, which included his
ﬁrst visit to Gaza since this summer’s conﬂict Egypt
and his participation in a Gaza reconstruc- Council members issued a press statement
tion conference held in Cairo on 12 October. on 24 October that condemned the terrorHe addressed the reconstruction efforts and ist attacks in the Sinai Peninsula that killed
the immediate need for humanitarian relief in and injured dozens of Egyptian soldiers
Gaza. He urged urging an end to the nearly (SC/11615).
50-year occupation of the enclave, the full lifting of the blockade against it and for a solution Democratic Republic of the Congo
to Israel’s legitimate security concerns. Coun- On 27 October, the Council was briefed (S/
cil members also met informally at expert-lev- PV.7288) by Special Representative Marel on 15 October to discuss a draft resolution tin Kobler on the latest MONUSCO report
circulated on 30 September by Arab Group (S/2014/698). The newly appointed Special
representative Jordan, which calls for a com- Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djinprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian nit, also briefed on the latest report on impleconﬂict and the full withdrawal of Israel from mentation of the Peace and Security Frameall of the Palestinian territory occupied since work Agreement (S/2014/697). Earlier in
1967 by November 2016, for an independent the month, on 3 October, Council members
Palestinian state, a resolution of the status issued a press statement (SC/11586) notof Jerusalem as the capital of two states and ing with concern the lack of progress on the
a resolution of the problem of the Palestine voluntary surrender of the members of the
refugees. On 29 October, Under-Secretary- rebel group Forces démocratiques de libération
General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman du Rwanda (FDLR). Council members also
briefed the Council at an urgent public meet- reiterated their call on the DRC government,
ing on rising tensions in East Jerusalem and to undertake, in coordination with MONUScontinuing Israeli settlement expansion, held CO, military action against those leaders and
at the request of Jordan (S/PV.7291).
members of the FDLR who do not engage in
the demobilisation process or who continue
to carry out human rights abuses.
Annual Report of the Security Council
The annual report of the Security Council
was unanimously adopted on 22 October Western Sahara
(S/2014/750). The report covered the period 1 Council members met in consultations on
August 2013 to 31 July 2014 and summarized the situation in Western Sahara on 27 Octothe Council’s 238 formal meetings and sub- ber. Under-Secretary-General for Peacesequent outcomes, including 55 resolutions. keeping Hervé Ladsous briefed on the current situation concerning the new Special
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Representative and head of MINURSO,
Kim Bolduc (Canada), who was to assume
her position on 1 August, but has not yet
travelled to her post due to opposition from
Morocco. Bolduc still briefed Council members in consultations on the situation in the
territory along with Christopher Ross, the
Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara.
Women, Peace and Security
On 28 October, the Security Council held
its annual open debate on women, peace
and security (S/PV.7289) to consider the
Secretary-General’s latest report on the issue
(S/2014/693). As president of the Council for October, Argentina circulated a concept note on the effects of displacement on
women, including both refugees and internally displaced persons, to guide discussion (S/2014/731). The head of UN Women, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, briefed and
delivered a statement from the SecretaryGeneral, who was travelling in Africa. Special
Rapporteur on the Human Rights of IDPs Dr.
Chaloka Beyani and Suaad Allami, an Iraqi
lawyer and the Founder and Director of Sadr
City Women’s Center and Legal Clinic, also
participated. The Council adopted a presidential statement that addressed the particular needs of displaced women, highlighted the
impact of violent extremism on women and
welcomed the Secretary-General’s commissioning of a global study in preparation for the
2015 High-Level Review of the implementation of resolution 1325 (S/PRST/2014/21).
Côte d’Ivoire
On 29 October, the Council was briefed by
Ambassador Cristian Barros (Chile), chair of
the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee (S/PV.7292). Barros reported on the work
of the Committee since the last brieﬁng (in
consultations) held on 24 April and a modiﬁcation of the sanctions regime through adoption of resolution 2153 on 29 April. Barros
will also discuss the ﬁndings of the mid-term
report of the Group of Experts (S/2014/729).
Permanent Representative of Côte d’Ivoire
Youssoufou Bamba also participated.
securitycouncilreport.org
3
Counter-Terrorism
Expected Council Action
In November, the Council expects to hold
an open debate on global efforts to counter terrorism and violent extremism and on
the implementation of resolutions 2170 and
2178 on the growing threat of foreign terrorist ﬁghters. Australian Foreign Minister
Julie Bishop is expected to preside. Expected
to brief on UN counter-terrorism efforts are
the Secretary-General and the chairs of the
1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee,
Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia) and
the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee
(CTC), Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė
(Lithuania). The adoption of a presidential
statement is the likely outcome.
Background
According to the Analytical Support and
Monitoring Team of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, there are around
15,000 foreign terrorist ﬁghters from more
than 80 countries who have fought with listed
Al-Qaida-associated groups in Syria and Iraq.
On 15 August, the Council unanimously
adopted resolution 2170, which speciﬁcally
condemned the Islamic State of Iraq and alSham (ISIS) and Al Nusrah Front (ANF) for
the recruitment of foreign terrorist ﬁghters
whose presence is exacerbating conﬂict and
contributing to violent radicalisation. It added
six individuals associated with ISIS and ANF
to the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida sanctions list and
expressed the Council’s readiness to consider
further designations of individuals involved in
ﬁnancing or facilitating the travel of foreign
terrorist ﬁghters. In addition, the resolution
called upon member states to suppress this
ﬂow, bring foreign terrorist ﬁghters to justice
and engage with those at risk of being recruited to discourage travel to Iraq and Syria.
On 24 September, the Council held a
summit meeting chaired by US President
Barack Obama on the issue of foreign terrorist
ﬁghters. The concept note circulated ahead of
the meeting underlined how foreign terrorist
ﬁghters “not only exacerbate existing conﬂicts
but also often return home possessing new
skills and connections, increasing the threat of
home-grown terrorist attacks” (S/2014/648).
Resolution 2178, which was adopted
unanimously at the beginning of the meeting, built on the current counter-terrorism
framework established by the Council but
also included several innovations. The main
one is the obligation that member states shall
prevent the entry into or transit through their
territories of any individual about whom that
state has credible information that provides
reasonable grounds to believe that he or she
is travelling for the purpose of participating
in the ﬁnancing, planning, preparation or
perpetration of terrorist acts.
It also calls for state cooperation in preventing individuals from travelling to join
terrorist groups and those assisting them, by
sharing information, assistance with criminal
investigations, and evidence-gathering, as well
as ﬁnancing and capacity-building assistance.
The resolution places an emphasis on the
importance of countering violent extremism
in order to prevent terrorism and encourages
engagement with relevant local communities
and non-governmental actors in developing
strategies to address the conditions conducive
to the spread of violent extremism.
Ahead of the meeting, the 1267/1989 AlQaida Sanctions Committee on 23 September approved the addition of 14 individuals
and two entities to its list of individuals and
entities subject to targeted ﬁnancial sanctions,
travel ban and arms embargo. Most of them
were speciﬁcally listed after member states
provided evidence that they were involved in
ﬁnancing or facilitating the travel of foreign
terrorist ﬁghters for ISIS and ANF.
The sixteenth report of the Monitoring
Team, which was discussed by the Committee on 8 October, identiﬁed short- and
long-term challenges related to this issue.
Short-term challenges include the current
killings, attacks and abuses being carried out
in the ﬁeld and long-term challenges involve
concerns regarding the signiﬁcant increase
in ﬁghters who are returning to their home
countries and their potential impact on
domestic terrorism.
The Council is expecting a brieﬁng by the
chairs of the relevant committees about their
respective efforts to implement resolutions
2170 and 2178.
These include a report by the Monitoring and Analytical Support Team to the
1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee
on the threat, including to the region, posed
by ISIS and ANF, their sources of arms and
funding, recruitment, demographics as well
as recommendations for additional action to
address the threat.
The CTC, with the support of its Executive Directorate, is expected to identify principal gaps in member states’ capacities to
implement resolutions 1373 and 1624 that
may hinder states’ abilities to stem the ﬂow
of foreign terrorist ﬁghters. Resolution 1373
of 28 September 2001 mandates states to
criminalise the ﬁnancing of terrorism and
recruitment for terrorist groups, and resolution 1624 of 14 September 2005 calls upon
member states to prohibit by law the incitement to commit terrorist acts. The CTC is
also mandated to identify good practices to
stem the ﬂow of foreign terrorist ﬁghters and
to facilitate technical assistance, speciﬁcally
by promoting engagement between providers
of capacity-building assistance and recipients.
Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is devising an
effective global framework to address the
growing challenges related to foreign terrorist
ﬁghters. Making sure that counter-terrorism
activities worldwide are undertaken with due
respect for international human rights norms
is an ongoing related issue.
Another key issue is to identify and sanction
those sponsoring terrorism by facilitating and
ﬁnancing the recruitment of foreign ﬁghters.
A further related issue is how to combine
a coercive approach against terrorism with
measures aimed at promoting non-violent
expression of political claims and reducing
sympathy and support for violent extremism.
Options
The Council could adopt a presidential
statement:
• emphasising the need for states to have the
tools and mobilise the resources to prevent their citizens from becoming foreign
terrorist ﬁghters;
• underscoring the critical need to counter
violent extremism through both engagement with civil society and building resilience among communities most at risk of
recruitment and radicalisation;
• asking the Secretary-General to appoint
a special representative against violent
extremism; and
81 '2&80(176 21 &2817(5Ǔ7(5525,60Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2178 (24 September 2014) imposed obligations on member states to respond to the threat
RIIRUHLJQWHUURULVWƃJKWHUVS/RES/2170$XJXVWFRQGHPQHGWKHUHFUXLWPHQWRIIRUHLJQWHUURULVWƃJKWHUVE\,6,6DQG$1)Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7272 (24
September 2014) was a summit-level debate chaired by US President Barack Obama on counter-terrorism.
4 whatsinblue.org
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Counter-Terrorism (con’t)
• threatening all state and non-state actors
that are providing funding, weapons or other kinds of support to terrorist groups—
including through the payment of ransoms—with the imposition of sanctions and
threatening those state and non-state actors
that do not respect their legal obligations
with the imposition of secondary sanctions.
Council and Wider Dynamics
At a time when Council dynamics have rendered the Council unable to overcome divisions on a number of pressing situations (e.g.
Israel/Palestine, Syria and Ukraine), counterterrorism appears to be one of the issues generating unanimous support among Council
members. Although resolution 2178 incorporated the importance of countering violent
extremism to ﬁght against terrorism, much of
the Council’s work so far has focused on the
imposition of sanctions. In the negotiation of
recent resolutions, some Council members
have advocated the inclusion of references to
compliance with domestic law and international law, including human rights law, when
countering terrorism.
southern provinces. ISIS has controlled Fallujah and parts of Ramadi in Anbar province since December 2013, and at press time
other areas of the province have also been
subject to persistent ISIS attacks. If ISIS consolidates its power in Anbar, it will control
borders with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria;
transportation routes to Baghdad; and critical infrastructure, such as airbases and dams.
There is also emerging evidence that ISIS
is in control of advanced weapons systems.
In early October, ISIS used shoulder-ﬁred
missiles to shoot down an Iraqi military helicopter. On 24 October, Iraqi officials accused
ISIS of using chlorine gas in an attack against
security forces and Shi’a militias. The US
said it was investigating the incident.
When the Council was last briefed on Iraq,
on 23 July, ISIS had just seized north-western
Iraq, and Mladenov highlighted that minorities were under attack as a result. Council members issued three press statements
between 21 July and 7 August, expressing
deep concern over reports of threats against
religious and ethnic minorities in ISIS-controlled parts of Iraq.
Mladenov also reported that ISIS had taken control of oil ﬁelds and pipelines, increasing its access to ﬁnancial resources, and on 28
July, the Council adopted a presidential statement prohibiting illicit oil trade as a source of
revenue for terrorists. In a further attempt to
cut off funding to ISIS, the Council adopted resolution 2170 on 15 August, listing six
individuals under the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida
sanctions regime and expressing the Council’s
readiness to list individuals involved in ﬁnancing or facilitating the travel of foreign terrorist
ﬁghters. On 24 September, the Council further strengthened its framework for countering foreign terrorist ﬁghters when it adopted
resolution 2178, obligating member states
to prevent the entry or transit through their
territories of any individual when there was
credible information that the person was seeking to participate in terrorist acts. (For more
information, please see the Counter-terrorism
brief in this Monthly Forecast.)
US airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq
began on 8 August. Iraq had requested the
international community to support the
effort to eradicate ISIS on 25 June, and since
then some 60 countries have agreed to back
the US-led action against ISIS in military,
humanitarian and support capacities. On 19
September, the Council adopted a presidential statement urging the international community to strengthen and expand support for
Iraq as it ﬁghts ISIS.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose
leadership was characterised by power consolidation and stoking of sectarian tension,
resigned on 14 August after losing support
from his Shi’a base and international backers,
the US and Iran. Haider al-Abadi succeeded him with a mandate to form an inclusive
government to unify Iraq’s Shi’a, Sunni and
Kurdish citizens. However, there are several
Iraq
Expected Council Action
In mid-November, Special Representative
Nickolay Mladenov will brief the Council on
the prospects for the effort by Iraqi forces
and a US-led coalition to successfully neutralize the threat of the Islamic State of Iraq
and al-Sham (ISIS). Deliberations will also
focus on the newly formed Shi’a-led government and Baghdad’s strained relationship
with Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish populations.
The alarming human rights situation in
Iraq will also likely receive attention, with a
brieﬁng by the UN High Commissioner for
Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein.
The Secretary-General’s reports on the UN
Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and on
Iraq’s compliance with resolution 1284 regarding the repatriation or return of Kuwaiti missing persons or property will also be presented.
UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 July 2015.
Key Recent Developments
The crisis in Iraq has sparked a humanitarian and protection crisis. As a result of armed
conﬂict or terrorist acts, 7,700 civilians have
been killed and 12,300 injured in 2014. Since
January, 1.8 million Iraqis have been displaced,
and humanitarian access to 650,000 displaced
persons has been restricted in areas controlled
by ISIS and associated armed groups.
An already-dire security situation in Iraq
reached crisis levels with ISIS’s surprise takeover of Mosul on 10 June. Since then, Iraq
has focused on securing Baghdad and the
81'2&80(17621,5$4Security Council Resolutions S/RES/21786HSWHPEHUREOLJDWHGPHPEHUVWDWHVWRUHVSRQGWRWKHWKUHDWRIIRUHLJQWHUURULVWƃJKWHUVS/RES/2170
$XJXVWFRQGHPQHGWKHUHFUXLWPHQWE\,6,6RIIRUHLJQƃJKWHUVDQGOLVWHGVL[LQGLYLGXDOVXQGHUWKH$O4DLGDVDQFWLRQVUHJLPHS/RES/2169-XO\H[WHQGHG81$0,
until 31 July 2015. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2014/206HSWHPEHUZHOFRPHGWKHQHZ,UDTLJRYHUQPHQWDQGXUJHGLQWHUQDWLRQDOVXSSRUWIRU,UDTŠVƃJKW
against ISIS. S/PRST/2014/14 (28 July 2014) prohibited illicit oil trade as a source of revenue for terrorists in Iraq and Syria. Security Council Press Statements SC/11605 (17 October
2014) condemned ISIS attacks in Baghdad. SC/11519 (13 August 2014) welcomed the nomination of Prime Minister-designate Haider al-Abadi. SC/11515 (7 August 2014), SC/11509 (5
August 2014) and SC/11484 (21 July 2014) deplored ISIS attacks and condemned the persecution of religious and ethnic minorities. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7271 (19
September 2014) was a ministerial-level debate on the ISIS threat. S/PV.7224-XO\ZDVDEULHƃQJE\0ODGHQRYSecurity Council Letter S/2014/440 (25 June 2014) was from
Iraq requesting support to eradicate ISIS. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/485 (11 July 2014) was the most recent UNAMI report. S/2014/480 (8 July 2014) was the most recent
Iraq/Kuwait report. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/RES/S-22/1 (1 September 2014) requested a mission be urgently dispatched to investigate ISIS violations.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
5
Iraq (con’t)
indications that a new government may not
be sufficient to rein in the sectarian violence.
Government bombardment of Sunni civilian
areas continues, as does unchecked activity
by Shi’a militias.
Abadi’s cabinet was formed on 8 September but with two crucial security posts, the
defence and interior ministries, unﬁlled, largely due to the opposition of parliamentarians
aligned with Shi’a militias—in particular the
Badr Organisation. The Badr Organisation,
which is backed by Tehran, has played a key
role in helping to secure Baghdad from ISIS.
However, its militia is suspected of having run
death squads against Sunni opponents since
the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Iraqi parliamentarians were only able to
agree on defence and interior ministry candidates on 18 October. Khaled al-Obeidi, a
Sunni leader from Mosul, was approved
as minister of defence. Mohammed Ghabban, from the Badr Organisation, was conﬁrmed for the interior ministry, though media
reports indicate that Hadi al-Amiri, the head
of Badr’s militia, will likely wield the real power. Sunnis opposed putting the Badr bloc in
charge of internal Iraqi security. The appointment undermines Abadi’s mandate to form
an inclusive government in order to boost
Sunnis’ conﬁdence in the central government.
Six Kurdish ministers were also conﬁrmed
on 18 October, three more than were initially
offered when Abadi’s cabinet was formed in
early September. Ministerial appointees from
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
did not participate in the cabinet until the
KRG received a larger share of the ministries
and the reinstatement of the KRG’s share
of ﬁnancial resources from the Iraqi budget, which Maliki had cut off when the KRG
began unilaterally selling its own oil, bypassing the central government.
Human Rights-Related Developments
The Human Rights Council held a special session on 1 September at the request of Iraq and
adopted a resolution condemning ISIS and associated groups that had violated human rights
and international humanitarian law. Since some
of their actions may amount to war crimes and
crimes against humanity, the resolution requested
an investigative mission be urgently dispatched.
2Q2FWREHU81$0,DQGWKH2ƅFHRIWKH81
High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
released a joint report documenting serious
violations of international humanitarian law and
gross abuses of human rights perpetrated by ISIS
6
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support the government in that effort.
In such a statement, the Council could
also condemn human rights violations by
ISIS and associated armed groups (an indirect reference to former Baathists and Sunni tribal leaders) as well as by Iraqi security
forces and associated armed groups (an indirect reference to Shi’a militias).
Another, though less likely option, is for
the Council to support OHCHR’s call for the
Iraqi government to accede to the ICC and to
immediately accept its ad-hoc jurisdiction for
crimes committed during the ongoing conﬂict.
and associated armed groups, including attacks
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use of the death penalty since it was restored in
2005, with judges systematically issuing death
sentences based solely on disputed evidence (i.e.
confessions resulting from torture) and testimony
of secret informants.
On 16 October, the High Commissioner
referred to ISIS as a potentially genocidal movement and the antithesis of human rights. He added no religious or ethnic group is safe and warned
of ISIS’s use of social media to recruit people
from across the globe.
UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human
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concern at the widespread and systematic human
rights violations by ISIS and associated armed
groups and said that those committed against
the Yezidi community may amount to attempted
genocide. He also urged the Iraqi government
to accede to the ICC statute and to immediately
accept its ad-hoc jurisdiction for crimes commitWHGGXULQJWKHRQJRLQJFRQƄLFW
Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is averting the
territorial and political disintegration of Iraq,
which would have major negative implications for regional and international security.
Another immediate issue is how to address
the mutually destabilizing impact of the Syrian civil war and the Iraq crisis—beyond the
US-led anti-ISIS operations in both countries.
A possibly more manageable issue is determining how the Council and UNAMI can
encourage the factions in the newly formed
government—in particular the dominant
Shi’a Dawa party of Abadi and Maliki along
with Kurdish and Sunni parliamentarians—to
cooperate on security and humanitarian issues
to build Sunni conﬁdence in the central government and fortify Iraq’s response to ISIS.
Options
Aside from following the situation in Iraq
through brieﬁngs, Council options seem
limited since the security response to ISIS
is happening outside the Council’s purview.
However, one option is to adopt a presidential statement calling for the new government to work towards enhanced security
and humanitarian coordination with the
KRG and Sunni leaders and for UNAMI to
Council Dynamics
Council members uniformly support
UNAMI’s mandate, which they believe is
broad enough and ﬂexible enough to allow
Mladenov to fulﬁl the mission’s good-offices
role.
There has been a ﬂurry of activity in response
to the spread of ISIS since Mladenov last
briefed. Nevertheless, Council members have
quickly reverted to a “wait-and-see” mode
and, except through the lens of counter-terrorism, have largely been unable to approach
the connected crises in Iraq and Syria holistically. It is likely that Council members will
continue to treat the two situations as discrete
issues since condemning the Tehran-backed
regime in Damascus cannot be reconciled
with supporting the Tehran- and US-backed
government in Baghdad.
The Council’s revived engagement on
Iraq has been almost exclusively ISIS-related,
in that the Council has reinforced its counterterrorism framework and issued press statements condemning various ISIS attacks and
highlighting the group’s threat to ethnic and
religious minorities.
However, the Council has been less directly engaged in grappling with the underlying
political divisions among Iraq’s Shi’a, Sunni
and Kurdish populations. For example, it has
been difficult for Council members to formulate a response to the government-formation
process beyond the routine and general call
for an inclusive government.
Some Council members are concerned
that a display of support now might be misinterpreted as endorsement of the Badr Organisation. Yet tempering any support with an
expression of concern about the activities of
the Badr militia or violations by Iraqi security
forces could prove difficult given the degree
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Iraq (con’t)
to which the US seeks Iraq’s agreement prior Jordan, the UK and the US are part of the in general, and the UK is the penholder on
Iraq-Kuwait issues.
anti-ISIS coalition.
to Council outcomes on Iraq.
The US is the penholder on Iraq issues
Council members Australia, France,
Burundi
Expected Council Action
In November, the Special Representative and
head of the UN Office in Burundi (BNUB),
Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, will brief the Council. Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the
Burundi conﬁguration of the Peacebuilding
Commission, will also brief.
In line with Burundi’s wishes, the Council adopted resolution 2137 on 13 February,
extending the mandate of BNUB for the last
time until 31 December.
Key Recent Developments
While BNUB is preparing for its withdrawal,
Burundi continues to experience political
turmoil ahead of the legislative and presidential elections scheduled for May and June
2015, respectively. (In resolution 2137, the
Council asked the Secretary-General to prepare for BNUB’s transfer of responsibilities
to the UN Country Team by 31 December.
As requested by Burundi, the resolution calls
on the Secretary-General to establish an electoral observer mission for the period before,
during and after the 2015 elections.)
In the latest BNUB brieﬁng on 6 August,
Onanga-Anyanga expressed his continuing concern about deep political divisions
in the country, the lack of political dialogue
on major national issues and laws restricting
freedom of expression. He called on opposition parties to resist the temptation to boycott
the elections, as many did in 2010. He added
that preparations were underway to withdraw
BNUB by 31 December.
Despite public statements by government
officials in support of free and fair democratic elections and a code of conduct for
the elections that political parties have signed,
many continue to criticize Burundi for limiting political participation and for the harassment of the opposition and civil society.
A Bujumbura court on 2 October sentenced
Léonce Ngendakumana, the head of the opposition coalition Alliance des Démocrates pour le
Changement-Ikibiri (ADC-Ikibiri), to one year
in prison for incitement to racial hatred and
making damaging allegations and false accusations. Ngendakumana had on 6 February sent
a letter to the UN Secretary-General on behalf
of ADC-Ikibiri calling on the international
community to exert pressure on the government to, among other things, forestall “political
genocide”. He accused the ruling party, Conseil
National Pour la Défense de la Démocratie–Forces
pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD),
of preparations similar to those that took place
in neighbouring Rwanda before the 1994
genocide. He also compared the operations
of radio station Rema FM to Kigali’s Radio
Mille Collines, which in 1994 encouraged and
incited violence against the Tutsi. His lawyers
denounced the trial as politically motivated
and ﬁled an appeal. Ngendakumana has been
quoted as saying that “all credible opponents
are either in exile, have been prosecuted or
have been driven out from their parties”.
Another opposition leader, Alexis Sinduhije, head of the Movement for Solidarity
and Development (MSD), is now believed
to be in Europe after ﬂeeing because of an
arrest warrant in connection with a sporting
event on 8 March that turned violent, after
the police alleged it was a front for illegal
demonstrations. Some of the participants
sought refuge in the offices of the MSD
headquarters, taking two policemen hostage.
Subsequently the activities of the MSD were
suspended and 21 MSD members were given life sentences after being found guilty of
armed revolt. (For more information see our
May 2014 Monthly Forecast.)
Under the country’s strict election laws, the
government seems to be actively vetting opposition party leaders to prevent them from running. It takes the position that if individuals
precluded from running within a recognised
political party still wish to participate in the
election, they can do so as independent candidates. All candidates, including those recognised by the government are furthermore
hampered by strict campaigning timeframes.
In security-related news, an unidentiﬁed
armed group on 5 October attacked positions
of the Burundian army in the Rukoko Natural
Reserve in Bubanza Province, near the country’s border with the Democratic Republic of
the Congo (DRC). The Forces pour la Libération Nationale’s Nzabampema wing reportedly
claimed responsibility for the attack, in which
it said six soldiers were killed. An army spokesperson said that one of the attackers was killed
and attributed the incident to “armed bandits”.
In recent weeks, both the DRC government
and the UN Stabilisation Mission in the DRC
have conﬁrmed the presence of Burundian
troops in the Uvira region of the DRC, in order
to secure the common border.
Forty corpses were discovered in July and
August, some reportedly bound and wrapped
in plastic bags, on the Burundian side of
Lake Rweru, which straddles Burundi and
Rwanda. The general prosecutor of Burundi said on 14 October that an investigation
concluded that the dead were Rwandans, but
Rwanda refuted that.
Developments in the PBC
Seger organised a high-level meeting for Burundi
and its key bilateral and multilateral partners on
6HSWHPEHU LQ 1HZ <RUN $PRQJ WKH RƅFLDOV
representing Burundi were First Vice-President
Prosper Bazombanza and Foreign Minister Laurent Kavakure.
Representatives from Belgium, China, France,
Japan, Kenya, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Russia,
Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, the UK,
the US and the EU and the World Bank attended.
Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs
-HƂUH\ )HOWPDQ 2QDQJD$Q\DQJD DQG $VVLVtant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan
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country team. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/550 (31 July 2014) was the latest BNUB report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7236$XJXVWZDVDEULHƃQJE\
Special Representative Parfait Onanga-Anyanga on BNUB. Security Council Press Statement SC/11350$SULOH[SUHVVHGFRQFHUQRYHUUHSRUWHGDFWVRILQWLPLGDWLRQKDUDVVment and violence committed by youth groups in Burundi.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
7
Burundi (con’t)
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The meeting’s aim was to review recent developments in Burundi and preparations for a roundtable between Burundi and its partners, scheduled tentatively for 11-12 December in Bujumbura.
The objectives of the upcoming roundtable are to
take stock of the progress made and challenges
remaining in the implementation of the second
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper; review political
reforms and pledges made by donors; assess the
partnership between Burundi and the international community, particularly in light of the drawdown
of BNUB; and, on the assumption that the 2015
elections will be peaceful, open, inclusive and
fair, discuss a reinforced cooperation framework
between Burundi and its partners in the medium
and long term. The outcome of the roundtable
would be a joint declaration of renewed and redeƃQHG PXWXDO FRPPLWPHQWV LQ OLJKW RI SURJUHVV
achieved and remaining challenges.
Human Rights-Related Developments
On 9 October, the Human Rights Committee of the
International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
completed its consideration of the second periodic
report of Burundi—the previous report was submitted in 1992. During the discussions, committee
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killings, particularly perpetrated by actors responsible for law enforcement and the government-linked
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and prison overcrowding. (CCPR/C/BDI/2)
Pierre Claver Mbonimpa, head of the Association for the Protection of Human Rights and
Detained Persons, was provisionally released
from detention on medical grounds on 29 September. He was arrested on 15 May and charged
presidential statement that would:
call on Burundi to ensure an open and inclusive political environment;
• convey readiness to consider extending
BNUB’s mandate until after the election
if the situation continues to deteriorate;
• signal a possibility of imposing measures
such as sanctions against perpetrators or
instigators of political violence during the
electoral period; or
Key Issues
• call on sub-regional organisations such as
the International Conference of the Great
The key issue is ensuring that, despite the
Lakes Region to play a more active role in
upcoming withdrawal of BNUB, the secuBurundi in light of BNUB’s withdrawal.
rity and political situation in Burundi does
not deteriorate further given the history of
ethnic violence between the Hutu and Tutsi Council Dynamics
ethnic groups.
Some Council members, such as France
Should the political situation take a signiﬁ- and the US, remain concerned about the
cant turn for the worse, an issue for the Coun- political tensions and the curbing of politicil will be how to act quickly and effectively cal opposition by Burundi’s government, as
in order to preserve the progress achieved these may be the ﬁrst signs of what could
over the past decade and prevent the situa- be a relapse into the horrendous ethnic and
tion from developing into an acute crisis.
political violence that plagued the country in
An immediate issue is setting up the prop- the past. Several Council members believe
er mechanisms for the UN electoral mission that the Council should monitor the situation
and ensuring that the 2015 elections are free closely in the lead-up to the 2015 elections
and beyond via the electoral mission, there is,
and fair.
however, at this point, little appetite among
Council members to take strong measures to
Options
One option for the Council, to signal its address the situation.
continuing engagement with and concern The penholder on Burundi is France.
about Burundi, is adopting a resolution or a
with endangering state security and inciting
public disobedience for his remarks on the radio
about allegations that members of the Imbonerakure (the CNDD-FDD youth wing) were being
armed by the government and receiving military
training in the DRC. The European Parliament on
18 September urged the Burundian government
to immediately and unconditionally release Mbonimpa and on 23 September, US President Barack
Obama publicly called for Mbonimpa’s release.
Liberia
Expected Council Action
As requested in resolution 2176, the Council
is scheduled to be briefed prior to 15 November on the situation in Liberia, particularly
regarding the Ebola crisis and the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). The briefers are
likely to include Under-Secretary-General
for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous
and Ambassador Mårten Grunditz (Sweden), chair of the Liberia conﬁguration of
the Peacebuilding Commission. The brieﬁng
will be followed by consultations.
Key Recent Developments
The Ebola crisis continues to worsen in West
Africa. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 25 October there were
a total of 10,114 cases and 4,912 deaths due
to Ebola within the region. Liberia has been
the worst-affected country, with 4,665 cases and 2,705 deaths (Sierra Leone has had
3,896 cases and 1,281 deaths; Guinea has
had 1,553 cases and 926 deaths). The rate
of transmission has been most intense in the
capital city Monrovia where 305 new cases
have been reported within the most recent
one-week period.
Meanwhile, the political and security situation in Liberia is becoming increasingly
volatile. On 17 September, the inspector
general for police denied local media reports
that Vice President Joseph Boakai was under
investigation in connection with an alleged
plot to form an interim government. On 27
September, a group of approximately 1,000
people violently protested after discovering a
81 '2&80(176 21 /,%(5,$ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2177 (18 September 2014) determined that Ebola constituted a threat to international peace and security.
S/RES/21766HSWHPEHUH[WHQGHGWKHPDQGDWHRI810,/XQWLO'HFHPEHUSecurity Council Meetings S/PV.72792FWREHUZDVDEULHƃQJFRQFHUQLQJWKH
Ebola crisis in West Africa. S/PV.7268 (18 September 2014) was an open debate on the Ebola crisis in West Africa. S/PV.72606HSWHPEHUZDVDEULHƃQJRQ810,/Security
Council Letters S/2014/707 (29 September 2014) was an assessment of the Liberia sanctions regime. S/2014/679 (17 September 2014) was from the Secretary-General regarding his
intention to establish UNMEER. *HQHUDO$VVHPEO\'RFXPHQWA/RES/69/1 (19 September 2014) welcomed the intention of the Secretary-General to establish UNMEER. Human Rights
Council Document A/HRC/PRST/27/4 (26 September 2014) urged states to respect human rights when implementing measures to combat Ebola.
8
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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Liberia (con’t)
body they believed had been shot at a Monrovia checkpoint of the Liberia National
Police. On 6 October, Minister of Justice
Christiana Tah announced her resignation,
saying that her position had been repeatedly
undermined. She said that included interference by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
regarding an investigation into corruption
allegations within the National Security
Agency, which is headed by one of Sirleaf’s
sons. On 8 October, Sirleaf suspended by
proclamation Senate elections scheduled for
14 October. On 10 October, the House of
Representatives declined a request by President Sirleaf to further restrict political and
civil rights—e.g. electoral rights, freedom of
movement and freedom of speech—under
the state of emergency. Sirleaf’s suspension
of the elections was contested on 13 October by the House and Senate, which maintained that such a decision was a legislative,
not executive, prerogative. A deﬁnitive date
for holding the postponed elections has not
yet been agreed upon.
Due to the operational uncertainty created by the escalation of the Ebola outbreak,
the Council effectively postponed for three
months decisions regarding the potential
modiﬁcation of UNMIL’s mandate. Following a brieﬁng and consultations on UNMIL
on 9 September, the Council adopted resolution 2176 on 15 September, renewing
the mandate of the peacekeeping operation
until 31 December. Resolution 2176 also
expressed the Council’s intention to subsequently renew UNMIL’s mandate until 30
September 2015, pending consideration of
the Secretary-General’s update and analysis
in the upcoming mid-November brieﬁng.
In the interim, two UNMIL staff members
have died from Ebola, the ﬁrst on 25 September and the second on 13 October. On 10
October, UNMIL announced it had quarantined 41 personnel, including 20 soldiers, following the second infection. As of 28 October,
all but two staff had completed the quarantine period. (The Philippines has been the one
troop-contributing-country [TCC] to withdraw from UNMIL, having announced on 23
August that due to safety concerns their 115
troops would depart Liberia as soon as possible.) According to information provided to the
Council by the Department of Peacekeeping
Operations, UNMIL’s activities in response
to the Ebola outbreak include: coordination,
information and outreach; training of Liberian
government workers; monitoring and advocacy; providing equipment, logistics assistance
and engineering support; and supporting the
UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response
(UNMEER).
The severity of the Ebola crisis in West Africa has prompted the creation of the ﬁrst UN
emergency health mission. On 17 September, the Secretary-General sent letters to the
General Assembly and the Security Council
announcing his intention to establish a system-wide, inter-agency mission, UNMEER.
At the initiative of the US, the Council held an
open debate on the Ebola crisis on 18 September and adopted resolution 2177, which determined that “the unprecedented extent of the
Ebola outbreak in Africa constitutes a threat
to international peace and security”. The following day, the General Assembly adopted
a resolution welcoming the establishment of
UNMEER. On 23 September, Anthony Banbury was appointed Special Representative
and head of UNMEER, which is now headquartered in Ghana. As of 28 October, the
Ebola Response Multi-Partner Trust Fund
had only $8.8 million in deposits, $19 million in commitments and $88.2 million in outstanding pledges (out of $1 billion required).
In a speech at the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention on 16 September,
US President Barack Obama announced that
the US would commit substantial resources to
combat the Ebola crisis in West Africa, including: deployment of up to 3,200 troops; a public commitment to spend more than $1 billion;
deployment of more than 170 medical and
disaster response experts; and the construction
of a hospital for infected health workers, which
is underway, and plans to build 17 Ebola treatment units in Liberia. Ambassador Samantha
Power underscored the US commitment to
tackle the Ebola outbreak with a trip to West
Africa in late October, where she visited Ghana, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Power
called on other UN member states, in addition
to the US and the UK (which has been active
in Sierra Leone), to contribute doctors, medical supplies and ﬁnancial resources to ﬁght
Ebola in West Africa. Power has also praised
Cuba’s sending doctors to the affected region.
The Council most recently addressed the
Ebola crisis in West Africa during a brieﬁng
and consultations on 14 October. Banbury,
Ladsous and Assistant Secretary-General
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
for Political Affairs Tayé-Brook Zerihoun
briefed. Banbury emphasised the urgent
need for substantial human, material and
ﬁnancial resources to combat Ebola; Ladsous discussed the escalating security risks
associated with deepening political and social
divisions in Liberia; and Zerihoun focused on
the regional dimensions of Ebola’s impact,
including the adverse implications for crossborder cooperation on security and trade.
Representatives of Guinea-Conakry, Liberia
and Sierra Leone also addressed the Council.
Human Rights-Related Developments
During its 27th session, the Human Rights Council
adopted a presidential statement on 26 September deploring the loss of life in West Africa due to
Ebola and urging states to be mindful of human
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victims when implementing measures to limit the
spread of the virus.
On 16 October, High Commissioner for Human
Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein referred to Ebola
as a monumental crisis, adding that the critical
importance of rights to health, education, sanitation, development and good governance were not
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the use of quarantines, which if imposed injudiciously could violate a wide range of human rights
and accelerate the spread of Ebola.
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Commissioner for Human Rights released a paper
in September, A human rights perspective into the
Ebola outbreak, highlighting various fundamental
human rights impacted by the outbreak and providing recommendations.
Key Issues
The principal issue for the Council remains
the continued stability of Liberia. The government’s inadequate response to the Ebola
crisis thus far has further exacerbated public
perceptions of illegitimacy and threatened to
provoke protest. The national police and military lack capacity, which underlines the continued importance of UNMIL’s deployment
within the country. Coping with the health
risks Ebola poses for peacekeepers while also
maintaining sufficient operational mobility in
order to fulﬁl its mandate remains a critical
challenge for UNMIL.
Options
The most likely option for November is for
the Council to take no action, as it is highly unlikely to modify UNMIL’s mandate
until the following month (the peacekeeping
securitycouncilreport.org
9
Liberia (con’t)
operation’s mandate expires 31 December).
While the meeting has been scheduled explicitly for the purpose of an update on UNMIL,
the Council could also request participation
by a wider range of briefers, including representatives of UNMEER and WHO.
Council and Wider Dynamics
Among Council members, the US has shown
the most initiative in response to the Ebola
crisis in West Africa. (It has also made the
most signiﬁcant national commitment of
resources on the ground in Liberia.) A record
number of 134 co-sponsors for resolution
2177 on Ebola, the establishment of the
ﬁrst UN emergency health mission and the
unanimous adoption of the General Assembly resolution on UNMEER all suggest there
is now broad support among member states
for tackling the Ebola outbreak, although lagging deposits to the trust fund raise questions
about the depth of this commitment.
However, the evolving dynamics with TCCs for
UNMIL may be more complicated, particularly with a precedent having been established
by the withdrawal from Liberia of 115 Filipino
peacekeepers. There seems to be consensus
among Council members, the Department of
Peacekeeping Operations and the Liberian government regarding the need for UNMIL’s continued deployment. Nonetheless, there is also
a possibility that some TCCs may eventually
withdraw due to the health risks to their peacekeepers. This could also be due, at least in part,
to domestic political pressure on the governments of TCCs for the repatriation of troops.
The US is the penholder on Liberia, and
Jordan is the chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Committee.
of intermittent ﬁghting between the SPLM
and the SPLM in Opposition. Recurring
SPLM in Opposition attacks on government
forces occurred in September in Renk county,
Upper Nile state, near the Paloich oil ﬁeld,
which remains under the control of government forces. On 10 October, government
and opposition forces clashed at Doleib Hill
and Obel, areas just south of Malakal, the
capital of Upper Nile state. After the opposition seized Doleib Hill, government forces
reclaimed the area, pushing the rebels back
to northern Jonglei state.
More than 100,000 civilians are housed
in UNMISS “protection of civilians sites”
because they are too afraid to return home and
possibly face violence. The bulk of these IDPs
are in Bentiu (49,000 people), Juba (20,000)
and Malakal (18,000). UNMISS has made an
effort to expand the camps to accommodate
the inﬂux of civilians and to enhance security in and around these sites. On 21 October,
Derk Segaar, head of relief, reintegration and
protection in the UN Resident Coordinator’s
Office in South Sudan, announced that new
facilities had been built in Juba, Malakal and
Bor to accommodate approximately 28,000 of
the displaced and to address the overcrowding
and unsanitary conditions in the camps. (It
should be noted that the civilians in these sites
represent a small fraction of those displaced
throughout South Sudan).
The sixth round of the Intergovernmental
Authority on Development (IGAD)-mediated
negotiations in Ethiopia concluded on 5
October. The form of the proposed transitional government of national unity and the roles
and responsibilities of participants in such a
government were among the key issues discussed. While President Salva Kiir and rebel
leader Riek Machar agreed to form a transitional government of national unity in their 9
May cessation of hostilities agreement, both
leaders have yet to make the compromises
necessary for this to happen.
A parallel negotiating track has opened
up in Arusha, Tanzania, where an intraSPLM dialogue was held from 12 to 18
October. Facilitated by Tanzania’s ruling
Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, the negotiations included representatives of the SPLM,
SPLM in Opposition and SPLM former
detainees (high-level SPLM officials who
were detained by the government but subsequently released). Kiir met with Machar during the Arusha talks, although details on the
substance of their meeting are scant. On 20
October, the various SPLM factions signed
a framework agreement committing to intraparty democracy, reconciliation and healing.
In an accompanying communiqué, the parties acknowledged “a collective responsibility
for the crisis in South Sudan” and said the
crisis “must be urgently brought to an end by
the SPLM leadership through genuine and
honest dialogue”. The communiqué went on
to say that while the Arusha process is intended to reinforce the IGAD-facilitated process
South Sudan
Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan
(UNMISS) prior to its 30 November expiration. Given the ﬂuid situation on the ground,
it is possible that the Council may hold one
or more additional meetings to discuss South
Sudan during the month.
Key Recent Developments
The political, security and humanitarian situations in South Sudan remain dire. The peace
talks between t1he government—the Sudan
People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)—and
the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in
Opposition (SPLM in Opposition) have continued to falter, and sporadic ﬁghting between
the sides has been reported in recent weeks
in Upper Nile state. Absent a political solution to the conﬂict, analysts fear that ﬁghting
will increase in the coming months with the
enhanced mobility that accompanies the dry
season which begins in November. As of 16
October, there were 1.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in South Sudan, while
approximately 467,000 people had left for surrounding countries. Additionally, roughly four
million people in the country face serious food
insecurity. Since the conﬂict began in December 2013, thousands have died, and both the
SPLM and the SPLM in Opposition have
been accused of signiﬁcant violations of international humanitarian and human rights law.
In recent months, there have been reports
81'2&80(176216287+68'$1Security Council Resolution S/RES/2155 (27 May 2014) revised the mandate of UNMISS to focus on protection of civilians, facilitation of humaniWDULDQDFFHVVDQGKXPDQULJKWVYHULƃFDWLRQDQGPRQLWRULQJSecurity Council Meeting Record S/PV.72822FWREHUZDVDEULHƃQJE\6SHFLDO5HSUHVHQWDWLYH(OOHQ0DUJUHWKH
Løj on UNMISS. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/708 (30 September 2014) was the UNMISS report.
10
whatsinblue.org
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
South Sudan (con’t)
in Ethiopia, it is distinct from it. It further
noted the parties’ commitment to meet again
within two weeks for further talks.
On 23 October, Kiir, President Uhuru
Kenyatta of Kenya, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn of Ethiopia and Prime Minister
Ruhankana Rugunda of Uganda met in Juba
for a one-day IGAD summit. During the
summit, Kiir reiterated his claim that he is
committed to the peace process. In remarks
to the press after the summit, IGAD’s chief
mediator, Seyoum Mesﬁn, expressed optimism that the SPLM and the SPLM in
Opposition had achieved “a breakthrough” in
their negotiations, but he did not elaborate.
At press time, it seemed that power-sharing
in the proposed transitional government of
national unity remained a key sticking point
between the parties.
The South Sudan parliament on 8 October approved the National Security Bill that,
if enacted into law, would give security forces
wide-ranging authority to detain and arrest
people without safeguards of due process.
Legislators from the SPLM-Democratic
Change (SPLM-DC) vacated the parliament
in protest during the vote. (The SPLM-DC
is a political party that disagrees with Kiir’s
policies but has remained engaged in the
political process.) At press time, Kiir had yet
to sign the bill into law.
Zainab Hawa Bangura, the Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conﬂict, visited South Sudan from 5 to 11 October. She
met with Kiir and several other high-level
government officials, civil society representatives (including women’s groups), UN staff
and survivors of sexual violence. Bangura also
stopped in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where she
met with SPLM in Opposition leader Riek
Machar. During the trip, Bangura signed a
joint communiqué with the government outlining steps it can take to prevent and address
sexual violence—including the “issuance and
enforcement of clear orders through the army
chain of command prohibiting sexual violence [and] assistance for survivors” and the
development of action plans by the army and
police against sexual violence.
At a press brieﬁng at UN headquarters in
NewYork on 20 October, Bangura said that in
her 30 years of experience she had never witnessed anything like what she had seen at the
UN camp in Bentiu, where, in her words, “the
IDPs seeking refuge there face a combination
of chronic insecurity, unimaginable living
conditions, acute day-to-day protection concerns and rampant sexual violence”. She added that both sides in the conﬂict have committed sexual violence, with interlocutors on her
trip describing rape, gang rape, forced marriage, sexual slavery and abduction as among
the crimes committed.
On 22 October, Ellen Margrethe Løj, the
Special Representative and head of UNMISS,
briefed the Council on the situation in South
Sudan and the current UNMISS report. Bangura briefed as well, participating via videoteleconference from Geneva. Løj said that
since she had assumed her post, she had
been “shocked by the complete disregard for
human life” in the conﬂict, emphasising that
the perpetrators of human rights violations
must be held accountable. Bangura reiterated
many of the points from her 20 October press
brieﬁng, arguing that sexual violence in South
Sudan is widespread and that the government
lacks the capacity to address the challenge.
Francis Deng, South Sudan’s ambassador to
the UN, addressed the Council as well, urging
the Council to support capacity-building with
regard to South Sudan’s institutions, notably the police and other related security elements. In consultations following the brieﬁng,
Løj emphasised her concern at the lack of
progress on the political track, while Bangura
similarly said that the best way to curtail the
sexual violence in South Sudan is to bring an
end to the ﬁghting.
Key Issues
The underlying key issue continues to be the
need to ﬁnd a political solution to the crisis. Without a durable settlement, the ﬁghting will likely get worse—and the suffering
of civilians will increase—when the dry season begins creating conditions that facilitate
enhanced movement.
Another key issue is what role the Council,
in conjunction with the broader UN system
and other actors, can play in strengthening
the ability of UNMISS to protect civilians,
facilitate humanitarian access and uphold
human rights.
Also an important issue is how to
approach the issue of accountability for the
perpetrators of serious human rights violations. In this regard, the AU Commission
of Inquiry is expected to release a report in
November with recommendations for healing,
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
reconciliation and accountability for human
rights violations in South Sudan.
Options
The most likely option is for the Council to
renew UNMISS, maintaining a streamlined
mandate focusing on protection of civilians, facilitation of humanitarian access and
human rights monitoring.
In renewing the mandate, the Council
may decide to:
• implement targeted sanctions (i.e. an
assets freeze and travel ban) on spoilers
to the peace process who have committed
gross violations of international human
rights and humanitarian law;
• impose an arms embargo on the country;
• refer the situation in South Sudan to the
ICC;
• urge troop- and police-contributing
countries to expedite the deployment of
remaining authorised personnel, with supporting equipment, to help the mission
operate at full capacity;
• call for the use of community liaison
assistants to help UNMISS peacekeepers
enhance dialogue with local communities
and get timely information about potential threats, as has been done constructively in the UN Stabilisation Mission in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo; and
• make a special request for donors to fulﬁl
the 2014 Crisis Response Plan for South
Sudan, which was funded at only 61.3
percent at press time ($1.1 billion of $1.8
billion requested).
The Council could also decide to invite
Olusegan Obasanjo, the chair of the AU
Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan, to
brief on the Commission’s report.
Council Dynamics
There is frustration among Council members
about the continuing inability of the parties
to forge a political solution to the conﬂict.
Likewise, there are concerns that the ﬁghting may escalate, with even more devastating
attendant consequences for civilians, given
the onset of the dry season. Several Council
members have emphasised that there needs
to be accountability for the serious human
rights violations committed in South Sudan,
but it is unclear what options the Council
might pursue at this point. Targeted sanctions against spoilers have been discussed
securitycouncilreport.org
11
South Sudan (con’t)
for several months as a possible option
supported by several Council members. A
potential arms embargo on South Sudan
also appears to be under discussion. However, some Council members remain wary of
either approach. China and Russia, in par- is unclear, and perhaps unlikely, whether a
ticular, have had reservations about targeted resolution on targeted sanctions or an arms
sanctions, especially without the support of embargo could be adopted at this time.
The US is the penholder on South Sudan.
IGAD, which is divided on such an approach.
Given these challenging political dynamics, it
Sudan (Darfur)
Expected Council Action
In November, Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591
Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to
provide the Council with the quarterly briefing on the Committee’s work.
Key Recent Developments
The security situation in Darfur remains
unstable, marked by inter-communal violence
and ﬁghting between government and rebel
groups. In early October, the Rizeigat community clashed with the Zaghawa community
in Labado, East Darfur, during a cattle-rustling dispute. Two internally displaced Zaghawa were killed; as retribution, the Zaghawa
killed two Rizeigat. Inter-communal violence
also occurred on 11 October between members of the Rizeigat and Ma’aliya communities in Abu Dangal, East Darfur, also in an
apparent cattle-rustling dispute, leading to
the death of one person. Sudan armed forces reportedly clashed with Sudan Liberation
Army-Abdul Wahid (SLA-AW) rebels in Western Jebel Marra and Northern Jebel Marra in
mid-October and in Rokero, Northern Jebel
Marra on 17 October. On 19 October, the
Sudanese Air Force bombed the Zaghawa
areas of Orschi and Ebeiha in North Darfur,
resulting in the death of a farmer. A school in
Orschi was levelled in the attack, according to
Mohamed Ahmed Minawi, a local politician.
On 16 October, three Ethiopian peacekeepers with the AU/UN Hybrid Operation
in Darfur (UNAMID) died after they were
ambushed and shot by unidentiﬁed assailants in Karma, North Darfur, while protecting a water pump that was used by internally
displaced persons and students from a nearby school. Council members issued a press
statement condemning the attack (SC/11603).
A total of 61 UNAMID peacekeepers have
been killed since the mission was deployed in
December 2007.
The violence and insecurity in Darfur continues to worsen the humanitarian situation in
Darfur, with devastating results for the civilian population. As of 30 September, the UN
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) estimated that approximately 3.86 million people in the region required
humanitarian assistance. OCHA has also
reported that ﬁghting has displaced more
than 428,000 people thus far in 2014.
On 11 September, the ICC issued an
arrest warrant for Abdallah Banda, a Justice and Equality Movement rebel leader
accused of war crimes for orchestrating the
29 September 2007 attack on a facility run
by the AU Mission in Darfur in Haskanita, North Darfur. The attack resulted in the
deaths of 12 AU peacekeepers, and several
others were wounded.
Perceval last briefed the Council on the
work of the Sanctions Committee on 27
August. She said that systemic violations of
the arms embargo continued and noted that
member states needed to honour their obligation to adhere to the sanctions regime. She
also noted that there had been a recent reduction in the activities of the Rapid Support
Force, a pro-government militia accused of
committing atrocities in Darfur earlier in 2014.
A replacement for Mohammed Ibn
Chambas to serve as the Special Representative for Darfur and head of UNAMID has yet
to be appointed. Chambas was appointed the
Special Representative and head of the UN
Office for West Africa on 12 September. He
had been in charge of UNAMID since 20
December 2012.
Human Rights-Related Developments
During its 27th session, the Human Rights Council
(HRC) considered the report of the independent
H[SHUW RQ KXPDQ ULJKWV LQ 6XGDQ $+5&
The report describes legislation adopted to improve
human rights, but concludes that implementation
UHPDLQV SURWUDFWHG ZLWK QR VLJQLƃFDQW LPSURYHments since 2013. It addresses persisting human
rights challenges, including human rights violations
during the September 2013 demonstrations, the
Meriam Ibrahim apostasy case, arrests and detentions of political opponents and youth activists, the
curtailment of civil society, press censorship, the
HVFDODWLRQRIDUPHGFRQƄLFWVWKHLQFUHDVHLQFLYLOian displacement, humanitarian access problems
and the government’s suspension of the ICRC.
On 26 September, the HRC adopted a resolution on technical assistance and capacity-building
in Sudan (A/HRC/27/L.30/Rev.1). It renewed the
PDQGDWHRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQWH[SHUWIRURQH\HDU
and requested a report at the HRC’s 30th session.
Key Issues
The underlying key issue for the Council is
how to best address the ongoing security and
humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur.
A related issue is ensuring that the Council does not lose its focus on the tragedy in
Darfur, amidst all of the other crises in Sudan
and South Sudan and elsewhere in the world.
Another key issue is what the Council can
do to address violations of the arms embargo,
which have been consistently referenced in the
reports of the Panel of Experts over the years.
Another key issue is the safety and security of UNAMID personnel, especially in
light of the ongoing attacks on UNAMID
peacekeepers.
Options
The Council may decide to listen to Perceval’s brieﬁng without taking action.
Alternatively, it could adopt a statement
or resolution that:
81'2&80(17621'$5)85Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2173 (27 August 2014) renewed the mandate of UNAMID for 10 months. S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred the
situation in Darfur to the ICC. S/RES/15910DUFKHVWDEOLVKHGWKH6XGDQ6DQFWLRQV&RPPLWWHHDQGLWV3DQHORI([SHUWVSecurity Council Press Statement SC/11603 (16
October 2014) condemned the killing of three UNAMID peacekeepers. Secretary General’s Report S/2014/515 (22 July 2014) was the Secretary-General’s report on Darfur. Sanctions
Committee Documents S/2014/87)HEUXDU\ZDVWKHPRVWUHFHQWUHSRUWRIWKH3DQHORI([SHUWV
12 whatsinblue.org
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Sudan (Darfur) (con’t)
• condemns violations of the arms embargo and reminds states of their obligations
under resolution 1591;
• strengthens language obliging states supplying arms and related equipment to
Sudan to obtain credible end-user documentation, ensuring that these materials
do not enter Darfur; and
• condemns aerial bombardments by Sudan
in civilian areas.
continuing violence and humanitarian crisis
in Darfur. There has also been a perception
among some members that UNAMID could
be more effective, especially given the resources that have been devoted to the mission.
At press time, Argentina, as chair of the
1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, was planning to hold November’s meeting on Sudan
sanctions in an open brieﬁng, followed by
consultations. This perhaps reﬂects a desire
to enhance the Council’s transparency, building on recent efforts by some of the sanctions
Council Dynamics
There remain strong concerns about the committee chairs to hold open brieﬁngs. For
example, Lithuania has held open brieﬁngs
on the work of the sanctions committees that
it chairs on the Central African Republic and
Yemen in recent months, while Chile briefed
the Council on the work of the Côte d’Ivoire
sanctions committee in an open session on
29 October. (This represents a departure
from the standard practice of holding country-speciﬁc sanctions committee brieﬁngs in
closed consultations.)
The UK is the penholder on Darfur, and
the US is the penholder on Sudan/South
Sudan issues.
Somalia
Expected Council Action
In November, the Council is expected to adopt
a resolution renewing counter-piracy measures
for Somalia, due to expire on 18 November.
Key Recent Developments
During the last month, Operation Indian
Ocean, a joint Somali National Army (SNA)
and AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) military offensive against Al-Shabaab, has made
signiﬁcant progress, while terrorist attacks
in Mogadishu have also underscored a situation of prevailing insecurity in Somalia. On
5 October, SNA and AMISOM troops captured the coastal city of Baraawe, a key AlShabaab stronghold that had been instrumental as a port for the illicit export of charcoal
and import of arms. On 12 October and 15
October, car bombs detonated outside restaurants in Mogadishu, killing numerous people
in each instance. Al-Shabaab is presumed to
have been responsible for the attacks. On 14
October the Federal Government of Somalia
and the semi-autonomous region of Puntland
signed an agreement regarding bilateral relations, political boundaries and security.
Regarding piracy, there has been a sharp
decline in incidents off the coast of Somalia
since the period from 2009 to 2011, when
there was an average of 171 attacks and 39
ships pirated per year. There have been only
two attacks by Somali pirates so far in 2014,
but neither was successful. It has been more
than two years since the last commercial ship
was hijacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia. Somali pirates are believed to still hold 37
hostages, but no vessels remain under their
control. Despite the decline in pirate attacks,
the US-based NGO Oceans Beyond Piracy
estimates that Somali piracy had an economic
cost of $3 to $3.2 billion in 2013, with approximately one-third incurred by governments and
regional organisations deploying naval forces
and two-thirds assumed by the private sector
(i.e. security, labour, fuel and insurance).
On 22 October, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman briefed
the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s
report on piracy and armed robbery off the
coast of Somalia and other recent developments. The report notes progress made in targeting Somali pirate kingpins for arrest and
prosecution, particularly Mohomed Abdi Hassan, who was arrested in Brussels in October
2013, and Mohamed Garfanji, who was arrested in Mogadishu in August 2014. The report
also strongly condemned the 7 April killing
of Clément Gorissen and Simon Davis, two
staff members of the UN Office on Drugs and
Crime (UNODC) who were investigating illicit ﬁnancial ﬂows from piracy. The SecretaryGeneral also emphasised the need for judicial
institutions to prosecute pirates, economic
development in coastal areas and a national
coastal and maritime security capacity.
October was a busy month in the Council for other Somalia-related meetings. On
14 October, the Special Representative and
head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia, Nicholas Kay, and the AU Special Representative for Somalia and head of AMISOM,
Maman Sidikou, briefed the Council via video-teleconference. On 15 October, Ambassador Oh Joon (Republic of Korea), chair
of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions
Committee, briefed Council members in
consultations about sanctions developments
during the most recent 120-day period and
the ﬁnal reports of the Somalia and Eritrea
Monitoring Group. Lastly, under “any other
business” on 22 October, Emergency Relief
Coordinator Valerie Amos briefed Council
members in consultations on the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Somalia.
On 24 October, the Council adopted
resolution 2182 reauthorising AMISOM for
one year. The resolution also included several sanctions-related measures: authorising naval deployments to interdict charcoal exports and arms imports violating the
751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea sanctions regime,
reauthorising the mandate of the Somalia
and Eritrea Monitoring Group, reauthorising
81'2&80(17621620$/,$Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2182 (24 October 2014) authorised naval interdiction of illicit charcoal and illicit arms, renewed authorisation for
AMISOM and renewed sanctions measures. S/RES/2125 (18 November 2013) renewed Somalia anti-piracy measures for one year. Security Council Meetings S/PV.7286 (24 October)
ZDVWKHDGRSWLRQRIUHVROXWLRQZLWKH[SODQDWLRQVRIYRWHVE\-RUGDQDQG5XVVLDZKRDEVWDLQHGS/PV.72842FWREHUZDVDEULHƃQJRQSLUDF\LQ6RPDOLDS/PV.7278 (14
2FWREHUZDVDEULHƃQJRQ81620Security Council Letter S/2014/760 (23 October 2014) was a letter from Egypt requesting postponement of the vote on resolution 2182.
Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/740 (16 October 2014) was a report of the Secretary-General on piracy in Somalia. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2014/727 (10 October
ZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRQ(ULWUHDRIWKH0RQLWRULQJ*URXSS/2014/7262FWREHUZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRQ6RPDOLDRIWKH0RQLWRULQJ*URXS
86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&(The State of Maritime Piracy 2013, Oceans Beyond Piracy, May 2014.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
13
Somalia (con’t)
the humanitarian exemption, and reauthorising a partial lifting of the arms embargo for
Somali government security forces. On 22
October and 23 October, Kuwait and Egypt,
representing the Gulf Cooperation Council
and the Arab Group respectively, transmitted letters to the Council requesting (unsuccessfully) a postponement of the vote on resolution 2182. The Arab Group speciﬁcally
opposed authorisation for maritime interdiction beyond Somalia’s coastal waters and by
the naval forces of individual member states.
Accompanied by Russia, Jordan abstained
during the vote adopting resolution 2182.
Key Issues
The principal issue facing the Council in
November concerns the on-going (albeit
reduced) danger of piracy in the Gulf of Aden,
which potentially threatens to re-emerge in the
absence of continued counter-piracy measures.
Another issue concerns the sustainability of counter-piracy naval deployments—
currently estimated to cost approximately
$1 billion per year—and a relative lack of
ﬁnancial resources dedicated to land-based
approaches to piracy prevention. Relevant
factors include a chronic lack of alternative
economic opportunities in piracy affected Council and Wider Dynamics
areas, the resilience of support networks for There continues to be considerable support
piracy and insufficient domestic institutions in the Council regarding counter-piracy meafor prosecuting and imprisoning pirates.
sures for Somalia. More than half of current
Council members are represented through
the CTF-151 of the Combined Maritime
Options
The most likely option for the Council would Forces (i.e. Australia and Republic of Korea),
be to renew for one year the counter-piracy EU Naval Force Atalanta, NATO Operation
measures most recently reauthorised in reso- Ocean Shield and national deployments (i.e.,
lution 2125. More speciﬁcally, the Council China and Russia). However, the interdiction
could also consider:
measures authorised with resolution 2182 for
• creating specialised anti-piracy courts in charcoal exports and arms imports in violaSomalia with substantial international tion of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea sanctions
ﬁnancial and technical support and par- regime are more contentious. In explaining its
abstention, Jordan speciﬁcally mentioned three
ticipation (i.e. hybrid model);
• urging the ﬁnancial support from mem- issues: the authorisation to individual member
ber states for the Trust Fund to Support states, “reasonable grounds” as an insufficient
Initiatives of States Combatting Piracy off threshold, and the extension beyond Somalia’s
coastal waters. Russia (which abstained) and
the Coast of Somalia;
• reiterating its support for the work of the China (which voted in favour) also stated that
UNODC and requesting member states more attention should have been given to the
to contribute to the Maritime Crime Pro- concerns of the Arab Group.
The UK is the penholder on Somalia, the
gramme; and
• requesting member states and regional US is the penholder on piracy, Russia is the
organisations to work with the Somali penholder on legal aspects of counter-piracy
government toward creating a national measures and the Republic of Korea is the
chair of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sancmaritime patrol capacity to deter piracy.
tions Committee.
Guinea-Bissau
of the armed forces, General Antonio Indjai,
who led the 12 April 2012 coup. On 17 September, Vaz appointed Biahay Na N’tan as
his replacement. Like Indjai, he comes from
the country’s Balanta ethnic group.
The new Prime Minister, Domingos
Simões Pereira, addressed the General
Assembly on 29 September, outlining a threephased set of reforms. An urgent programme
to meet people’s immediate needs in education and power and water supplies; ensure
food security; pay civil servants’ overdue salaries; and provide basic health care, including
contingency planning to handle possible Ebola cases. Reforms in natural resource manageKey Recent Developments
Guinea-Bissau’s recently elected president, ment are intended to ensure transparency and
José Mário Vaz, issued a decree on 15 Sep- accountability in the sector. He also noted a
tember dismissing the chief of general staff medium-term development programme, for
Expected Council Action
In November, the Council is expected to
extend the mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau
(UNIOGBIS), which expires on 30 November.
Prior to the mandate renewal, Special Representative Miguel Trovoada, will brief the
Council along with the chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s Guinea-Bissau country
conﬁguration, Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar
Patriota (Brazil). The Council will consider a
written update from the Secretary-General on
his comprehensive review of UNIOGBIS.
which the government will seek funding at
a planned donors’ conference in early 2015.
On the margins of the General Assembly, Guinea-Bissau’s international partners
met on 26 September to discuss the report
of the AU-led assessment mission conducted from 15 to 18 September. In a communiqué, they took note of the recommendation
to extend the Economic Community of West
African States (ECOWAS) Security Mission
in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB) beyond its 31
December mandate, urging partners to provide ECOMIB necessary support. Among
other points, they agreed to mobilise support
for the donors’ roundtable and to revitalise the
International Contact Group on Guinea-Bissau, which had stopped meeting in June 2012
shortly after the coup due to disagreements
81'2&80(17621*8,1($Ǔ%,66$8Security Council Resolution S/RES/21570D\UHQHZHG81,2*%,6IRUDVL[PRQWKVSecretary-General’s Report S/2014/603 (18
$XJXVWZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRQWKHUHVWRUDWLRQRIFRQVWLWXWLRQDORUGHUSecurity Council Letters S/2014/601 (15 August 2014) and S/2014/600$XJXVWZDVDQH[FKDQJH
of letters between the Security Council and the Secretary-General, agreeing that the August 2014 report on the restoration of constitutional order be the last and that future relevant
developments be included in reports on UNIOGBIS. S/2014/529 (23 July 2014) and S/2014/528-XO\ZDVDQH[FKDQJHRIOHWWHUVEHWZHHQWKH6HFXULW\&RXQFLODQGWKH6HFUHWDU\
*HQHUDODJUHHLQJWRWKUHHPRQWKH[WHQVLRQWRUHSRUWRQWKHFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHYLHZRI81,2*%,6ŠVPDQGDWH
14
whatsinblue.org
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Guinea-Bissau (con’t)
between ECOWAS and Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP). The
contact group, co-chaired by ECOWAS and
the CPLP, will coordinate international efforts.
Regarding the Ebola epidemic in neighbouring Guinea and nearby Sierra Leone and
Liberia, the government closed its borders
with Guinea on 19 August. In 14 October
consultations following the Council’s meeting on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa,
Assistant Secretary-General for Political
Affairs Tayé-Brook Zerihoun described preparations taken by UNIOGBIS in case the disease appears in the country.
Council members last met on GuineaBissau on 26 August, when Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman briefed on the Secretary-General’s ﬁnal
report pursuant to resolution 2048 on the
restoration of constitutional order. During
consultations, Feltman said that civil-military
relations appeared to be moving in the right
direction and that it was a positive sign that
the international community was reengaging
with Guinea-Bissau.
Trovoada arrived in the country on 21
August to take up his office as Special Representative. Two new deputy special representatives to UNIOGBIS were also recently
appointed: Maria do Valle Ribeiro of Ireland
on 13 August and Marco Carmignani of Brazil on 8 May.
At press time, the UN was set to conduct a strategic review of UNIOGBIS from
3 November to 14 November. This is the
comprehensive review of the mission that
the Council called for in resolution 2157 to
ensure that UNIOGBIS’s mandate is aligned
with the newly elected government’s priorities.
Developments in the PBC
Patriota travelled to Guinea-Bissau from 28 to 30
October. He attended a meeting of CPLP minisWHUVLQWKHFRXQWU\DQGPHWZLWKVHYHUDORƅFLDOV
RIWKHQHZJRYHUQPHQW,WZDV3DWULRWDŠVƃUVWWULS
to the country since the elections.
Key Issues
Renewing the mandate of UNIOGBIS while
ensuring it is aligned with the priorities of the
government will be the key issue.
Another key issue is how the Council can
best support the resumption and consolidation of constitutional order. Related to this
is an update on civil-military relations, progress in security sector reform and the work
of ECOMIB.
Guinea-Bissau’s preparations and capacity to deal with Ebola will likely be an important issue since an outbreak in the country
could severely undermine recent positive
developments.
Combating drug trafficking and the illegal
exploitation of natural resources, along with
addressing accountability for past political
violence, are ongoing issues of concern.
Options
The Council could:
• authorise a technical rollover of the mission for three or four months in order to
consider the Secretary-General’s report
that is due by 30 January with recommendations based on the UN’s comprehensive
review of UNIOGBIS and the government’s priorities for UN support; or
• renew the mandate of UNIOGBIS for 12
months to continue its focus on supporting
inclusive political dialogue, security sector
reform, justice and public administration
reforms and efforts to combat drug trafficking and other illicit activities, as well as protecting human rights and ﬁghting impunity.
Council and Wider Dynamics
Council members tend to be united in their
approach to Guinea-Bissau, following the
lead of ECOWAS. However, for the renewal
of UNIOGBIS’s mandate last May, divisions
emerged among members over the time period
for extending the mission. France, in particular, preferred a longer extension in line with
the Secretary-General’s recommendation of a
one-year renewal, which the UN had recommended in order to provide time to conduct
the strategic review. The US, though, wanted a
three-month renewal. The compromise was a
six-month extension until 30 November. However, recommendations from the UN’s strategic review are not expected until January following the Council’s granting of a three-month
extension for the Secretary-General’s report.
Thus another short-term extension of the mission’s mandate may be necessary, which some
members may not easily accept, anticipating
a year-long renewal of UNIOGBIS this time.
CPLP states have proposed in recent
months that ECOMIB be transformed into
a larger, UN-mandated African-led mission.
Nigeria, the major contributor to
ECOMIB, is the penholder on Guinea-Bissau.
Libya
Expected Council Action
In November, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda the Council will deliver her semi-annual brieﬁng by on recent developments concerning cases in Libya.
The mandates of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Panel of
Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions
Committee expire on 13 March and 13
April 2015, respectively.
Key Recent Developments
On 25 July, Bensouda expressed great concern
about recent reports of alleged attacks carried
out against civilians in Tripoli and Benghazi
and said she will not hesitate to investigate
and prosecute crimes under the ICC’s jurisdiction irrespective of the perpetrators’ official
status or affiliation. (Pursuant to resolution
1970, the Office of the Prosecutor may exercise its jurisdiction over international crimes
committed within the territory of Libya since
15 February 2011.)
Until recently, the investigations of the
Office of the Prosecutor had focused on
crimes committed during the 2011 revolution and had only started proceedings against
81'2&80(17621/,%<$Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2174 (27 August 2014) imposed sanctions on those obstructing or undermining the successful completion of the
political transition. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/653 (5 September 2014) was on UNSMIL. Security
Council Meeting Records S/PV.72852FWREHUZDVWKHƃIWKDQQXDORSHQGHEDWHRQZRUNLQJPHWKRGVDQGWKH,&&3URVHFXWRUEULHIHGS/PV.7173 (13 May 2014) was the seventh
EULHƃQJE\WKH3URVHFXWRURIWKH,&&RQ/LE\DSecurity Council Press Statement SC/11585 (2 October 2014) welcomed the UN-facilitated meeting between members of the House
of Representatives in Ghadames.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
15
Libya (con’t)
then-high-level Libyan officials. Relations
between Libya and the ICC have been tense
since the decision by the ICC to try Saif AlIslam Qaddaﬁ, son of deposed leader Col.
Muammar Qaddaﬁ, in The Hague, as per the
ICC referral in resolution 1970. In May, the
Appeals Chamber of the ICC upheld the decision of Pre-trial Chamber I, which directed
Libya to hand Qaddaﬁ over to the Court. Briefing the Council on 13 May, Bensouda stated
that national judicial proceedings can never
be an excuse for failure to comply with the
Chamber’s order. A decision from the Pre-Trial Chamber on a request for a ﬁnding of noncompliance for the non-surrender of Qaddaﬁ
is now expected. Such a ﬁnding might result
in the referral of the case back to the Security
Council to ensure compliance by Libya.
In a 11 October 2013 decision, Pre-Trial
Chamber I concluded that the case against
former intelligence chief Abdullah Al-Senussi
was being investigated by Libya, thus making
it inadmissible before the ICC. The decision,
which had been challenged by Al-Senussi’s
legal counsel, was upheld on 24 July by the
Appeals Chamber, bringing proceedings
against Al-Senussi before the Court to an end.
A trial of 37 Qaddaﬁ-era officials accused
of serious crimes during the 2011 revolution—including Qaddaﬁ testifying via video
link as well as Al-Senussi—has been ongoing intermittently in Tripoli since 24 March
and was postponed on 12 October until early November. UNSMIL has raised concerns
about difficulties in ensuring full and fair
legal representation for all defendants. The
UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention
characterised Qaddaﬁ’s detention as arbitrary.
In her last brieﬁng to the Council, the
Prosecutor noted that her Office was collecting evidence against pro-Qaddaﬁ officials
outside of Libya. Bensouda also stated that
the forced displacement of civilians from Tawergha in the period from August 2011 to April
2014 appears to meet the elements of deportation or forcible transfer of the civilian population as a crime against humanity and a war
crime under the Rome Statute. On 27 May,
Libya signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Registry of the Court recognising
the privileges and immunities of Court staff
conducting investigations in Libya.
Brieﬁng the Council on 23 October during a debate on working methods, Bensouda argued for the Council to use stronger
16
whatsinblue.org
language in its referrals to counter the current
ambiguity as to whether all states are obliged
to cooperate and for the Council to support
carrying out the arrest warrants issued by
the Court. She also informed the Council
how the lack of bilateral or UN ﬁnancing for
Council referrals negatively impacts the ability of her Office to conduct investigations in
both Darfur and Libya.
Clashes continue in Libya between Misrata-based and Islamist militias (Libya Dawn)
and Zintan-based militias that supported the
16 May failed coup by rogue General Khalifa Haftar. Currently, the new Tobruk-based
House of Representatives (which is considered the only legitimate legislative body by the
Security Council and most in the international community) is being challenged by the former parliament, the General National Congress, which sits in Tripoli. Both parliaments
have appointed rival governments. Following
an agreement of military cooperation between
the House of Representatives and Egypt, new
airstrikes were reportedly conducted by Egypt
in mid-October against militia-held positions
in Benghazi. While Tripoli remains under the
control of Libya Dawn, ﬁghting continues in
the west and dozens were reported killed in
Benghazi in clashes and as part of a campaign
of targeted assassinations that has been ongoing for months. In a 25 September meeting
about Libya on the margins of the UN General Assembly, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called for the listing of terrorist
group Ansar al-Sharia under the 1267/1989
Al-Qaida sanctions regime.
Special Representative and head of
UNSMIL, Bernardino León, facilitated two
meetings of members of the House of Representatives in Ghadames and Tripoli on 29
September and 11 October (some had refused
to attend the meetings of the House). Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon presided over the
latter meeting. Despite calls for a ceaseﬁre,
the security situation remains critical.
Human Rights-Related Developments
$ MRLQW UHSRUW E\ 8160,/ DQG WKH 2ƅFH RI WKH
High Commissioner for Human Rights, released
on 4 September, provides an overview of violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in Tripoli and Benghazi, including indiscriminate shelling and attacks on civilian targets,
shelling of hospitals, abduction of civilians, torture and unlawful killings. The report also details
accounts of civilian casualties, including women,
children and foreign nationals.
High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid
Ra’ad Al Hussein warned on 14 October that
human rights defenders, political activists, bloggers and media professionals have been under
increasing attack from armed groups in Libya
since mid-May, with numerous reports of intimidation, harassment, abductions and murder of
members of civil society. In Benghazi on 19 September, ten people were murdered on a single day,
including two prominent young civil society activists. In Derna, east of Benghazi, lawyer Usama
al-Mansuri was killed on 6 October, apparently
after publicly criticising a declaration by armed
groups pledging allegiance to the Islamic State
of Iraq and al-Sham. The High Commissioner
condemned these and other attacks, adding that
female activists are particularly vulnerable, and
urged the Libyan authorities to investigate and
hold those found responsible accountable.
Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is the disagreement between Libya and the ICC regarding
the Qaddaﬁ trial. A possible issue in the near
future is the Council’s response if the ICC
refers the matter back to the Council, following Libya’s failure to cooperate with the Court.
An ongoing overarching issue is the continuing conﬂict among militias and the fragile
security and political situation.
Options
With respect to the ICC, receiving a brieﬁng
and taking no action seems the most likely
option, but the Council could use the opportunity to issue a presidential statement signalling its ongoing concern about the overall
situation, including:
• expressing concern about attacks against
civilians in Libya that can amount to
international crimes;
• urging Libya to implement the provisions
of the December 2013 law regarding transitional justice and the mandate of the factﬁnding and reconciliation commission;
• reiterating its call for armed militias to disarm and accept the authority of the state,
including transferring Qaddaﬁ to the custody of the state;
• urging the government and militias to
ensure the protection of the estimated
7,000 conﬂict-related detainees being
held without due process; and
• reiterating its support for the ongoing ICC
investigations into serious crimes committed by other former regime officials and by
rebel forces during the revolution.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Libya (con’t)
A further option for the Council is to
impose measures under resolution 2174
against armed militias and other spoilers that
threaten the peace, stability or security of Libya by signiﬁcantly undermining state authority
and its monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
Regarding the tension between Libya and
the ICC over the trial of Qaddaﬁ, it seems
unlikely that the Council will take a strong
stance on this unless the ICC issues a ﬁnding
of non-compliance.
An 18 October joint statement by France,
Germany, Italy, the UK and the US showed
these countries’ concerns about Haftar’s
Council and Wider Dynamics
The overall deterioration of the security situ- attacks in Benghazi. The statement —which
ation and the fragility of the political situation emphasises the need to counter terrorism “by
are sources of concern for Council members. regular armed forces under the control of a
central authority which is accountable to a
democratic and inclusive parliament”—constitutes a departure from previous statements
by key international actors in Libya that had
for the last ﬁve months avoided mentioning
the Haftar by name. A similar attempt to do
so in the Council encountered the opposition of Russia who claimed that naming and
shaming Haftar could have a negative impact
in the political process.
The UK is the penholder on Libya.
Syria
Expected Council Action
In early November, Special Adviser Sigrid
Kaag will brief on the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. Later in the month,
Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian
Affairs Valerie Amos will brief on the humanitarian situation in Syria.
The authorisation in resolution 2165 for
cross-border and cross-line humanitarian
access in Syria, including the monitoring
mechanism expires in mid-January 2015.
Key Recent Developments
The civil war continues on its devastating
course, and the militarisation of the conﬂict
has escalated with the advent of US-led airstrikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and
al-Sham (ISIS). The strikes have been particularly focused around the Kurdish town of
Kobani in northern Syria to counter the ISIS
offensive to seize the town and consolidate its
control along the Turkish border.
The US has said that it will not coordinate
its military activities with Damascus. However, it seems there is at least a tacit agreement
that Syrian offensives should avoid interfering with the US-led airstrikes against ISIS.
Meanwhile, since these airstrikes began
on 22 September, the Syrian military has
ramped up its own air campaign against rebel-held areas. Anti-ISIS strikes are enabling
President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to refocus
its attacks on opposition groups and regain
ground around Damascus and Aleppo and
along its border with Jordan. Analysts have
noted that another government objective is
to weaken rebel groups before they receive
promised, yet elusive, equipment and training from the US in Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Ankara is part of the anti-ISIS coalition
but has not allowed its Kurdish population to
be armed and cross into Syria to help defend
Kobani, largely due its decades-long struggle
with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Turkey.
But it has given permission for 200 Peshmerga
forces from the autonomous Kurdish region
of Iraq and 1,300 Free Syrian Army ﬁghters
to transit Turkey into Syria to defend Kobani.
On 19 October, the US air-dropped material
supplied by Iraqi Kurdish authorities—weapons, ammunition and supplies—into Kobani.
In exchange for more direct military support against ISIS, Turkey has advocated for
a buffer zone in Syria and widening the targets to include the regime. These demands
have strained relations between Washington and Ankara and have demonstrated
the gap between the immediate aim of the
US—namely to contain ISIS—and the much
broader objectives of Turkey which also
include a political transition that excludes
Assad and a halt in the nascent formation of
Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
Visiting Turkey between 18 and 20 October, Amos said the ISIS onslaught around
Kobani had caused nearly 190,000 civilians
to ﬂee to Turkey in a matter of weeks. Meanwhile, Lebanon has announced it will stop
receiving Syrian refugees. She also said that
humanitarians can save lives but they can’t
deliver safety and security and that a political
solution in Syria was urgently needed.
Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura briefed Council members on 30 October
on possible ways to revive the political process following his meetings with key players
in Damascus, Amman, Ankara, Beirut, Cairo,
Moscow, Riyadh and Tehran. Since he took
up his post in September, he has been working around the “Assad knot” enshrined in
the 30 June 2012 Geneva Communiqué—
i.e. trying to ﬁnd openings between Iran and
Russia’s support for the Assad regime and
the position of the P3 and their Arab allies
that Assad must go. De Mistura is expected
to return to Damascus in early November.
Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Kyung-wha Kang also briefed
on 30 October and presented the SecretaryGeneral’s report on the humanitarian situation in Syria. There are 3.2 million refugees
and 6.4 million internally displaced persons,
according to the report, and almost half of the
population, 10.8 million, require humanitarian
assistance. Of those, 4.7 million are in hard-toreach areas and 241,000 are in besieged areas.
The report said that since the adoption of resolution 2165, there had been 23 cross-border
aid deliveries, but cross-line deliveries within
Syria occur but remain difficult. The government continues to use administrative obstacles
to slow aid delivery, in particular truck-sealing
procedures and case-by-case negotiations of
deliveries to hard-to-reach areas. Armed opposition groups and terrorist groups block access
81'2&80(176216<5,$Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2165 (14 July 2014) and S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014) were on humanitarian access. S/RES/2118 (27 September
2013) was on chemical weapons. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7293 2FWREHU ZDV D EULHƃQJ RQ WKH KXPDQLWDULDQ VLWXDWLRQ LQ 6\ULD Security Council Press
Statements SC/11590 (3 October 2014) condemned ISIS for the murder of UK aid worker Alan Henning. SC/11589 (3 October 2014) condemned the 1 October twin bomb attacks on a
VFKRROFRPSOH[LQDJRYHUQPHQWFRQWUROOHGDUHDRI+RPVSecretary-General’s Reports S/2014/756 (23 October 2014) was on humanitarian access. S/2014/706 (26 September 2014)
was on chemical weapons.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
17
Syria (con’t)
Council and Wider Dynamics
Despite a dramatic shift of the situation on
the ground, the Council continues to be in a
holding pattern on Syria. Activity on both the
chemical weapons and humanitarian tracks
remains in monitoring mode. It is unlikely
either will garner much attention before
year’s end when the authorisation for crossborder aid deliveries will need to be revisited
and Kaag leaves her “good offices” role on
the chemical weapons track.
Council members’ response to US-led airstrikes has been muted. Recent activity by
the Council vis-à-vis Syria has been limited
to counter-terrorism efforts, and the US-led
military response to ISIS as a wider regional
threat is likely to exacerbate that trend.
While the US and its allies in the region,
such as Saudi Arabia, have a convergence of
interest with Iran in confronting ISIS, the
struggle between Riyadh and Tehran for
regional inﬂuence remains the deﬁning factor
in the Syrian civil war as well as an obstacle
to any political solution. The Council’s counter-terrorism approach and the international
response to ISIS do not seem to have shifted
this fundamental underlying dynamic. The
overwhelming focus on ISIS has left Assad
in a strengthened position. If a political process were started in the current environment,
there would be very little incentive for the
government to make any serious concessions
to the Syrian opposition.
Nevertheless, some Council members think
that it is not acceptable that the Council has
ignored the political track for so long, and
there is an eagerness to hear regularly from the
new Special Envoy. However, De Mistura will
likely want to limit expectations that there will
be any bold plans forthcoming in the near term.
Few Council members expect that there will be
an attempt at a third round of highly publicised
peace talks and instead presume his efforts will
be focused on discreet shuttle diplomacy.
France is the penholder on Syria overall,
while Australia, Jordan and Luxembourg are
the penholders on the humanitarian track.
In practice, however, most texts need to be
agreed between Russia and the US prior to
agreement by the broader Council.
Council members Australia, France, Jordan, the UK and the US are part of the antiISIS coalition.
of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel
Expected Council Action
In November, Special Coordinator for in 2006.
The mandate of the UN Interim Force in
Lebanon Derek Plumbly will brief Council
members in consultations on the Secretary- Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August 2015.
General’s report on the implementation of
resolution 1701, which called for a cessation
Key Recent Developments
Lebanon is experiencing serious challenges
from both internal and external threats. The
domestic political situation remains stagnant.
More than ﬁve months after the term of President Michael Sleiman expired on 25 May,
to each other’s areas of control. Key elements
of resolution 2139, such as observing medical
neutrality and ceasing aerial bombardments,
remain unimplemented. The report also identiﬁed some civilian death and displacement
resulting from anti-ISIS strikes.
Kaag briefed on 7 October, reporting on
the destruction plan for chemical weapons
production facilities in Syria—in particular the four additional facilities disclosed by
Syria only in September. She also updated
Council members on the 10 September
OPCW report that found evidence that chlorine had been used consistently and repeatedly in barrel bombs dropped from helicopters. Media reports indicate that there has
been an upsurge in the government’s use of
chlorine bombs against rebel-held areas since
the US-led air strikes against ISIS began.
Human Rights-Related Developments
On 16 October, High Commissioner for Human
5LJKWV =HLG 5DŠDG $O +XVVHLQ VDLG KLV RƅFH
intends to issue an updated count of reported
deaths in Syria by the end of the year, which will
be well over the conservative estimate of 200,000.
2YHU WKH QH[W VHYHUDO PRQWKV WKH &RPPLVsion of Inquiry on Syria is planning to release
thematic reports on abuses perpetrated by ISIS,
deaths in custody, torture and forced disappearDQFH WKH LPSDFW RI WKH FRQƄLFW RQ ZRPHQ DQG
attacks on journalists and human rights defenders.
Key Issues
The key issue for the Council—in the fourth
year of a civil war that can no longer be contained inside Syria—is to ensure that its
recent focus on counter-terrorism efforts
does not diminish its attention to reports that
the Assad regime remains responsible for the
majority of violations in the conﬂict.
A related issue is whether Council members
will meaningfully engage with De Mistura to
ﬁnd ways to support a cessation of violence
and resuscitate efforts for a political solution.
Ongoing issues include tracking implementation of resolutions 2139 and 2165 on
the humanitarian situation and 2118 on the
destruction of chemical weapons—in particular aerial bombardment and the use of
chlorine bombs.
Options
Aside from following the Syrian situation
through brieﬁngs, Council options seem
limited. However, one option would be to
issue a statement of support and priorities for
mediation ahead of De Mistura’s next round
of talks with Damascus.
Another option for Council members who
are concerned that elements of resolution
2139, such as human rights and protection
of civilians, are being ignored is to request
to be regularly informed of the work of the
Commission of Inquiry on Syria. (A 25 September Human Rights Council resolution
decided to transmit all of the Commission’s
reports to the Secretary-General for “appropriate action”. The Secretary-General could
choose to bring the report to the attention
of the Council using his article 99 powers.)
An important, though less likely, option in
the face of the ever-increasing militarisation
of the conﬂict is for the Council to heed the
Secretary-General’s call for the international
community to stop the ﬂow of arms into Syria and impose an arms embargo.
Lebanon (UNIFIL)
18 whatsinblue.org
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Lebanon (UNIFIL) (con’t)
Lebanon’s parliament remains unable to elect
a new head of state, compromising Lebanon’s ability to address its myriad challenges.
The parliament’s term expires on 20 November, and at press time it remained unclear
whether this term would be extended in order
to avoid electing a new parliament before a
president is elected. Meanwhile, ﬁghting
along both Lebanon’s southern border with
Israel and its north-eastern border with Syria
continues to impact stability.
On 5 October, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) informed UNIFIL that an LAF soldier had been shot and wounded by an Israel
Defence Forces (IDF) soldier in the Sheb’a
Farms area. Two days later, the IDF informed
UNIFIL that two of its soldiers had been
injured by an improvised explosive device
detonated in the Sheb’a Farms area. Thirty
minutes after that, the IDF again contacted
UNIFIL to report that there had been another explosion, to which the IDF had responded
with artillery ﬁre directed at two Hezbollah
targets near the border, according to an IDF
spokesperson. A Hezbollah cell calling itself
the Ali Hassan Martyr Unit took responsibility for the blasts and reported wounding
Israeli soldiers. The IDF placed responsibility
for the explosions on both Hezbollah and the
Lebanese government, calling the incidents “a
ﬂagrant violation of Israel’s sovereignty”.
UNIFIL urged maximum restraint after the
incidents, which were in violation of resolution 1701. “Such actions are in contravention
of efforts to reduce tensions and establish a
stable and secure environment in southern
Lebanon”, UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric
told reporters on 7 October in New York. He
added that UNIFIL had contacted both parties, asking them to cooperate with the mission
to reduce tension and prevent escalation. UNIFIL launched an investigation into the incident.
At least 11 soldiers, eight civilians and 22
militants were killed in three days of heavy
ﬁghting between the LAF and Islamist gunmen in the predominantly Sunni northern
city of Tripoli that began on 24 October. On
the morning of 27 October, Al-Nusra Front
issued a threat that it would kill a captured
Lebanese soldier unless the army stopped its
operation in Tripoli. Around 30 Lebanese
security personnel were captured in August
by Al-Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq
and al-Sham near Arsal, close to the Syrian
border. Three have since been executed.
Hezbollah clashed with Sunni extremist ﬁghters from Al-Nusra along Lebanon’s
north-eastern border with Syria for two days
beginning on the evening of 5 October, after
Al-Nusra ﬁghters attacked three Hezbollah
military posts in the village of Brital, in the
Baalbek region. As the border is undeﬁned in
the area, it was unclear whether the clashes
occurred in Lebanon or Syria. Nearly two
dozen militants were reportedly killed in the
ﬁghting. Hezbollah acknowledged that eight
of its ﬁghters were killed, and 14 members of
Al-Nusra were reportedly killed. Furthermore,
Hezbollah captured ﬁve Al-Nusra ﬁghters.
Al-Nusra also released what it claimed was
video footage from the ﬁghting, and said the
operation was in retaliation for the burning
of Syrian refugee camps in Arsal during an
LAF raid in late September, referring to a 25
September raid on a refugee camp during
which, the army contends, unknown assailants
torched several tents. Attacks on LAF soldiers
by Sunni extremists in Arsal have increased,
and Lebanese forces have in turn arrested
hundreds of Syrians in the area. Some of
the militants responsible for the attacks were
believed to have hidden in refugee camps, and
refugees have complained that innocent Syrians have been among those arrested.
On 20 October, Lebanon’s social affairs
minister, Rashid Derbas, announced that
Lebanon would not accept any more Syrian
refugees, but the borders would remain open
to people travelling for other purposes, adding
that “any Syrian national is welcome, but not
as a refugee”. At least 1.13 million Syrian refugees have registered with the UN in Lebanon.
However, officials say the actual number is
much higher. On 21 October, Special Coordinator Plumbly, accompanied by the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees representative in
Lebanon, met with the Baalbek-Hermel district governor to discuss Syrian refugee issues.
Plumbly said they discussed the difficult conditions in which Syrian refugees were living
and he expressed solidarity with Lebanon in
light of the border attacks by Al-Nusra.
On 20 October, Iranian Defence Minister
Hossein Dehghan announced that Iran was
ready to send military supplies to Lebanon to
assist in its ﬁght against terrorism, “with the
aim of consolidating national authority and
reinforcing security”. Lebanese Defence Minister Samir Moqbel said during a visit to Tehran that Iran’s military support would play an
important role in helping push back radical
Islamist groups in the border regions. Iran’s
pledge of military aid has been a source of
controversy, and it is unclear whether Lebanon
will actually accept the aid, as several ministers
affiliated with the anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance have expressed concern that such a deal
would contravene UN sanctions against Iran.
Council members last met on Lebanon on
15 October, when Special Envoy Terje RødLarsen briefed in consultations on the latest
report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 1559, which urged
the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese
territory. The report expressed concern that
Lebanon continues to face serious challenges
to its stability and security, both internally
and along its borders with Syria, including
from extremist groups, arms smuggling and
further inﬂuxes of refugees. It urged the government and LAF to take all measures necessary to prevent Hezbollah and other armed
groups from building paramilitary capacity
outside the authority of the state.
Human Rights-Related Developments
$VXPPDU\DFFRXQWRIWKHUHVXOWVRIDFRQƃGHQtial inquiry on Lebanon by the Committee Against
7RUWXUH DVVLVWHG E\ WKH 2ƅFH RI WKH +LJK &RPmissioner for Human Rights, was released on 2
October as part of the committee’s annual report
(A/69/44). The inquiry began in May 2012 and
ended in November 2013, and the committee
concluded torture in Lebanon is a pervasive practice routinely used by the armed forces and law
enforcement agencies for the purpose of investigation, securing confessions, and punishment.
Furthermore, conditions observed in most of the
detention facilities could be described as cruel,
inhuman and degrading according to the report.
The committee issued 34 recommendations and
asked Lebanon to submit a follow-up report by
22 November.
81'2&80(17621/(%$121Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2172$XJXVWH[WHQGHGWKHPDQGDWHRI81,),/IRURQH\HDUS/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged
ZLWKGUDZDORIDOOIRUHLJQIRUFHVIURP/HEDQRQGLVDUPDPHQWRIDOO/HEDQHVHDQGQRQ/HEDQHVHPLOLWLDVDQGH[WHQVLRQRIWKH/HEDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWŠVFRQWURORYHUDOO/HEDQHVHWHUULWRU\
Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/100D\H[SUHVVHGGLVDSSRLQWPHQWWKDWSUHVLGHQWLDOHOHFWLRQVZHUHQRWFRPSOHWHGZLWKLQWKHFRQVWLWXWLRQDOWLPHIUDPH
and urged Lebanon to hold elections quickly. It also called on all parties to respect Lebanon’s policy of disassociation and to refrain from any involvement in the Syrian crisis. SecretaryGeneral’s Reports S/2014/720 (7 October 2014) was most recent report on the implementation of resolution 1559. S/2014/438 (26 June 2014) was the most recent report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Security Council Press Statement SC/11507$XJXVWFRQGHPQHGWKHDWWDFNVE\YLROHQWH[WUHPLVWJURXSVRQWKH/$)DQG,QWHUQDO6HFXULW\)RUFHV
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
19
Lebanon (UNIFIL) (con’t)
Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is the need to
prevent the recurrence or escalation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.
A related issue is the weaponry in the
hands of Hezbollah and other non-state
actors, which continues to restrict the ability
of the state to exercise full authority over its
territory, poses a threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability and contravenes its obligations under resolutions 1559 and 1701.
Ongoing issues include other violations of
resolution 1701, such as regular Israeli overﬂights in Lebanese airspace.
Several pressing issues arise from the
conﬂict in neighbouring Syria, including the
engagement of Lebanese elements in the war
there and the immense burden of hosting
growing numbers of Syrian refugees, which
continues to have adverse social, political and
economic effects on Lebanon.
Options
One option is for the Council to merely
receive the brieﬁng and take no action.
Given the lack of progress towards electing a president and the looming end of
term of the parliament, another option is to
issue a presidential statement encouraging
the election to take place in an expeditious
manner in order to maintain stability. Such
a statement could also reiterate support to
the Government of Lebanon, including in
its ﬁght against terrorism, and stress the
need for all Lebanese parties to abide by
its policy of dissociation from the Syrian
conﬂict, outlined in the Baabda Declaration
of June 2012.
Council Dynamics
There is consensus in the Council that UNIFIL contributes to stability between Israel
and Lebanon and has become even more
crucial in the context of the ﬁghting in Gaza
and the ongoing Syrian crisis. The Council
remains united in its support for Lebanon’s
sovereignty, territorial integrity and security. The Council is also united in its concern
about the continued vacancy in the presidency, particularly given the extreme challenges
facing Lebanon at this time.
France is the penholder on Lebanon in
the Council.
UN Policing
Expected Council Action
At the initiative of Australia, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations
Hervé Ladsous will brief the in November on
cross-cutting thematic issues in UN policing.
The Council will also hear from three heads
of police components of UN missions. The
adoption of the ﬁrst stand-alone resolution
on UN policing is the likely outcome.
Background
In February, the Secretariat promulgated its
Policy on UN Police in Peacekeeping Operations and Special Political Missions, which
deﬁnes policing as “a function of governance
responsible for the prevention, detection and
investigation of crime; protection of persons
and property; and the maintenance of public
order and safety”.
Although UN police are deployed in
most peacekeeping operations and policing
tasks more broadly are included in many of
the Council’s country-speciﬁc mandates, the
Council has not discussed the subject except
as part of wider discussions on peacekeeping or
peacebuilding. For example, resolution 2086 of
21 January 2013 emphasised the importance
of strengthening the rule-of-law institutions of
the host country and helping national authorities develop critical rule-of-law priorities and
strategies to address the needs of police, judicial institutions and corrections system.
Along the same lines, resolution 2151 of
28 April on security sector reform, noted the
important role that UN police can play in
“supporting, and coordinating international
support for, reform of national police institutions and building police capacity in a comprehensive way that emphasises a community-oriented approach and inter alia builds
strong governance, oversight and accountability mechanisms within the framework of
a functional judicial and corrections system”.
Discussions among Council members
focusing speciﬁcally on UN police have taken place mostly in the Working Group on
Peacekeeping, illustrating the usefulness of
that forum to tackle issues that are not getting the attention of the Council as such. On
17 October, the Working Group, under the
chairmanship of Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana (Rwanda) held a meeting on the
multi-year strategy for UN police. The Police
Adviser, Stefan Feller, briefed the Working
Group on the strategic priorities for UN
police: a focus on ﬁeld missions, prudent
and effective management, holistic doctrine
and consistent training and the development
of partnerships in order to maximise impact.
Previously, on 15 November 2013, under the
chairmanship of Ambassador Masood Khan
(Pakistan), the Working Group discussed the
role of UN police in peacekeeping operations
and its related challenges and opportunities,
including its role in addressing organised
crime and emerging threats.
The ﬁrst police officers deployed in a UN
peacekeeping operation were mandated by
resolution 143 in 1960 and served in the UN
Operation in the Congo. As of 30 September, 12,516 police officers were serving in
13 peacekeeping operations and six special
political missions.
In early missions, police officers were
deployed primarily as observers, but UN
police undertook increasingly complex tasks
with the surge in peacekeeping in the 1990s.
Following the signature of the Dayton Agreement in 1995, the Council established a
1,721-strong UN International Police Task
Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 1999, the
81'2&80(176218132/,&,1*Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2151$SULOZDVWKHƃUVWVWDQGDORQHUHVROXWLRQRQVHFXULW\VHFWRUUHIRUPS/RES/2086 (21 January
2013) emphasised the relationship between peacekeeping and peacebuilding. Security Council Letters S/2014/213 0DUFK ZDV WKH ƃQDO UHSRUW RI WKH )LQQLVK ZRUNVKRS
“Hitting the Ground Running”. S/2013/786 (30 December 2013) was a letter by Pakistan with a report of the activities of the Working Group on Peacekeeping in 2013. *HQHUDO$VVHPEO\
Document A/66/615 (15 December 2011) was a report on UN police. Other DPKO/DFS Policy on UN Police in Peacekeeping Operations and Special Political Missions 2014, Ref. 2014.01
86()8/ $'',7,21$/ 5(6285&(Police in UN Peacekeeping: Improving Selection, Recruitment, and Deployment, William J. Durch and Michelle Ker, International Peace Institute,
November 2013.
20 whatsinblue.org
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
UN Policing (con’t)
ﬁrst Formed Police Unit—a cohesive mobile
police unit that provides support to UN
operations, primarily in public-order management—was deployed in Kosovo. Civilian
police—its name was changed to UN police in
2005—contributed to the implementation of
executive mandates in Kosovo and East Timor.
In 2006, the UN created a 40-member Standing Police Capacity based in Italy that became
operational by October 2007 with a mandate
to be rapidly deployed to help set up the police
component in UN missions.
In 2011, the Special Committee on
Peacekeeping Operations requested the
Secretary-General to prepare a report on
the functioning of the Police Division of the
Department of Peacekeeping Operations and
the challenges faced by the police components in peacekeeping missions (A/66/615).
The report identiﬁed a number of challenges,
such as the need for standardised pre-deployment training including developing expertise
to deal with the protection of civilians, sexual
and gender-based violence and similar issues;
the delivery of coherent and consistent advice
and support to host-state counterparts; the
inability to recruit and deploy appropriately
experienced and qualiﬁed police personnel
on a timely basis and unpredictable international funding for police reform projects.
timing and design of peacekeeping mandates
is a related issue.
Ensuring that there is system-wide coherence in the way UN policing is conducted and
that practical steps are taken by the Secretariat
to improve coherence is a further related issue.
Options
Options for the Council in adopting a resolution include:
• stressing the crucial role and added value
of UN policing in peacekeeping and postconﬂict peacebuilding;
• recognising the key role of UN policing in
protecting civilians and in pursuing thematic issues such as women, peace and security;
• urging the Secretariat to continue expanding the range of police contributors and
promoting the deployment of female
police officers;
• recalling the importance of establishing
realistic mandates and allocating enough
resources to ensure their implementation;
• highlighting the importance of pre-deployment and in-theatre training for UN police
as a way of ensuring their common standards in implementing Council mandates;
• stressing the need for all UN mandated
police components to operate within strict
observance of international humanitarian
and human rights law; and
Key Issues
• acknowledging the importance of national
ownership and demand-driven approaches
Enhancing the Council’s own understanding
to UN policing, while preserving a prinof the opportunities and challenges of policing
cipled action.
performed in UN ﬁeld missions is a key issue.
The impact of this understanding on the
Council and Wider Dynamics
This will be the ﬁrst time heads of police
components of UN missions brief the Council. Since 2010, the Council has received an
annual brieﬁng by force commanders on crosscutting operational issues in UN peacekeeping. According to the report of the Finnish
workshop for newly elected Council members,
held on 21-22 November 2013, some Council members cited the annual brieﬁng by the
force commanders as a model for Council
meetings because of the substance of the topics discussed and the interactivity allowed by
the format. As an outcome of the workshop, it
was agreed that a similar brieﬁng would take
place with heads of police components when
they visit NewYork in November (S/2014/213).
There seems to be widespread agreement
among Council members about the timeliness of this discussion given the frequency with which the Council authorises the
deployment of police officers within UN missions and includes policing tasks within its
mandates. However, in previous negotiations
on issues related to the continuum between
peacekeeping and post-conﬂict peacebuilding (such as security sector reform) at least
one Council member opposed routine inclusion of rule-of-law-related tasks (like policing) in all Council-mandated missions.
As of 30 September there were 89 policecontributing countries, but just the top ten
(Council members Jordan and Rwanda
among them) contribute more than 60 percent of UN police personnel.
Sanctions
Expected Council Action
At the initiative of Council President Australia, the Council is scheduled to be briefed
on sanctions in November, most likely by
Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs
Jeffrey Feltman and incoming Interpol Secretary-General Jürgen Stock. A resolution is
a potential outcome.
Key Recent Developments
At a 28 May brieﬁng in the Trusteeship Council chambers, Australia, Finland, Germany,
Greece and Sweden—in partnership with the
consultancy Compliance and Capacity International and the Watson Institute at Brown
University—launched the High Level Review
of United Nations Sanctions (HLR). The goal
of the HLR is to enhance the effectiveness of
UN sanctions through better integration and
coordination, both within the UN system and
with external institutions and legal instruments.
The HLR has proceeded through a series
of meetings held by three working groups,
with participation by member states, the Secretariat and UN agencies and civil society. The
81'2&80(176216$1&7,216Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7285 and Resumption 1 (23 October 2014) was an open debate on working methods. S/PV.6964 (10 May
ZDVD&RXQFLOEULHƃQJRQVXEVLGLDU\RUJDQVSecurity Council Letters S/2007/734 (12 December 2007) transmitted the report from a symposium organised by Greece, “Enhancing
the Implementation of United Nations Security Council Sanctions”. S/2006/331 (19 May 2006) transmitted the Watson White Paper, Strengthening Targeted Sanctions Through Fair and
Clear Procedures. Notes by the President of the Council S/2014/393 (5 June 2014) concerned the appointment of chairs of subsidiary organs and other transition processes. S/2012/937
(17 December 2012) concerned the appointment of chairs of subsidiary organs and other transition processes. Working Group Document S/2006/997 (18 December 2006) transmitted
WKHƃQDOUHSRUWRIWKH,QIRUPDO:RUNLQJ*URXSRIWKH6HFXULW\&RXQFLORQ*HQHUDO,VVXHVRI6DQFWLRQV
86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&(Enrico Carisch, Sue Eckert, and Loraine Rickard-Martin, High Level Review of UN Sanctions Background Paper
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
21
Sanctions (con’t)
ﬁrst working group has assessed integration
and coordination within the UN system (e.g.
sanctions committees, expert groups, the Secretariat, the Ombudsperson, peacekeeping
operations and special political missions). The
second working group has focused on linkages
between UN sanctions and external institutions and instruments (e.g. arms control and
disarmament agencies, ﬁnancial and economic
regulatory bodies, and international criminal
justice institutions). The third working group
has examined sanctions in relation to violations
of human rights and international humanitarian law, regional organisations and implementation issues, and relevant emerging threats. It
appears that the ﬁnal outcome document for
the HLR will not be published prior to the
Council event in November. At press time, the
chairs of the three working groups were due
on 31 October to brief the Secretariat and UN
member states on the ﬁndings of the HLR.
On 23 October, the Council held its
ﬁfth annual debate on working methods
(S/PV.7285 and Resumption 1). Kimberly
Prost, the Ombudsperson, and Fatou Bensouda, Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), briefed the Council. Each
advocated the extension of the mandate of
the Office of the Ombudsperson from the
1267 Al-Qaida sanctions regime to the other
UN sanctions regimes. (Bensouda also suggested the creation of a working group on
international tribunals.) Council members
emphasised due process and transparency
in their sanctions-related remarks. Ambassador Geir O. Pedersen (Norway), speaking on
behalf of the group of like-minded states on
targeted sanctions, made recommendations
regarding due process, information sharing,
transparency and delisting processes.
Background
The High Level Review of United Nations
Sanctions has several notable precedents.
Much of the early work was state-led, involving
the governments of Germany, Switzerland and
Sweden: the Bonn-Berlin Process, resulting in
the 2001 report, Design and Implementation of
Arms Embargoes and Travel and Aviation Related
Sanctions; the Interlaken Process, resulting in
the 2001 report, Targeted Financial Sanctions:
A Manual for Design and Implementation; and
the Stockholm Process, resulting in the 2003
report, Making Targeted Sanctions Effective:
Guidelines for the Implementation of UN Policy
22
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Options. Building on these efforts, the Informal
Working Group on General Issues of Sanctions, set up in April 2000, transmitted its ﬁnal
report on 18 December 2006 (S/2006/997).
On 30 April 2007, Greece sponsored a symposium at the UN on enhancing the implementation of UN sanctions (S/2007/734). Other
studies have been undertaken by civil society
actors, such as the white paper by the Watson
Institute of Brown University, Strengthening
Targeted Sanctions through Fair and Clear Procedures, transmitted to the General Assembly
and the Security Council on 19 May 2006
(A/60/887 – S/2006/331).
Key Issues
The core issue is the relative lack of effectiveness of UN sanctions to date. Closely related
issues are: assessing what measures would
most improve UN sanctions design and implementation and then determining how these
components could be most usefully incorporated within a Security Council resolution.
On the sanctions management side, an
immediate sanctions-related issue is the
upcoming process of the appointment of
Council sanctions committee chairs.
Options
Options for sanctions design and implementation the Council may wish to consider include:
• making pre-authorisation evaluation processes (i.e. strategic objectives and unintended consequences) a standard component of sanctions design;
• analysing options to make more frequent
use of secondary sanctions in response to
chronic non-compliance;
• authorising incremental due process
reforms to enhance the functioning and
legitimacy of UN sanctions;
• creating a subsidiary body of the Council
or a mechanism within the Secretariat to
improve the coordination and integration
of sanctions implementation;
• undertaking more frequent ﬁeld missions
by the chairs of sanctions committees to
improve implementation and compliance;
• increasing the transparency of sanctions
committees while also augmenting public
outreach and information dissemination;
• systematically incorporating a consultation process for sanctions committees with
member states directly affected by sanctions regimes;
• examining the possibilities, in conjunction
with the Secretary-General, for increasing
the resources available to the Secretariat
for administration;
• reforming the process of the appointment of sanctions committee chairs and
subsequent transition processes between
the outgoing and incoming chairs
(S/2014/393 and S/2012/937); and
• instituting a mechanism requiring consultation between penholders and sanctions
committee chairs prior to drafting sanctions resolutions.
Council and Wider Dynamics
Council dynamics on sanctions are multifaceted, complex and in some contexts ambiguous. The history of the Informal Working
Group on General Issues of Sanctions, which
deliberated over the content of a ﬁnal report
for several years before the Council eventually decided the Working Group had exhausted
its mandate and merely took “note with interest of the best practices and methods contained in the Working Group’s report”, illustrates some of the difficulties facing efforts to
reform UN sanctions.
One potential divide among Council
members apparently relates to differences
regarding innovation in the types of sanctions measures, such as the recent authorisation of naval interdiction of illicit charcoal exports and arms imports in the case
of Somalia (S/RES/2182). Another aspect of
sanctions where there seems to be a range of
perspectives among Council members concerns national sovereignty and to what extent
this should limit the scope of UN sanctions
(e.g. the positions of China and Russia compared to the other three permanent members
regarding natural resource management). A
third area where the positions of Council
members apparently diverge is due process.
This is also an issue on which there seems to
be a wide gap between the positions of certain P5 members of the Council (e.g. Russia
and the US) and other Council members and
UN member states, particularly the group
of like-minded states on targeted sanctions,
which has advocated extending the mandate of the Ombudsperson to all sanctions
regimes (S/PV.6964).
Where there appears to be sufficient
common ground among Council members
is a shared recognition on two points: UN
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
Sanctions (con’t)
sanctions are not as effective as they implementation. The resolution which
should and could be, and there are techni- may be adopted in November will most
cal reforms that could be made to improve likely focus on efficiency, consistency and
effectiveness of implementation through better coordination and integration.
Kosovo
Expected Council Action
In November, the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Kosovo. Farid Zarif, the
Special Representative and head of the UN
Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo
(UNMIK), is expected to present the latest
Secretary-General’s report. High-level participation in the debate from both Serbia and
Kosovo is likely.
No Council action is expected.
Key Recent Developments
Four months after elections, Kosovo remains
deadlocked in a constitutional and political
crisis stemming from the inability of political leaders to reach an agreement on the
formation of a new government. On 8 June,
Kosovo held its ﬁrst general election under a
uniﬁed legal framework, with the participation of all voters, including Kosovar Serbs.
Both the EU and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
declared the elections to be a successful exercise of democracy. At the last Council debate,
held on 29 August, Zarif and the majority
of Council members urged political leaders
in Kosovo to address the issue of forming
a new government with utmost immediacy.
At press time, Kosovo leaders still had not
formed a new government.
The stalemate is a result of a disagreement between Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi’s Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK)
and the opposition coalition bloc led by
the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK),
which includes the Alliance for the Future of
Kosovo (AAK) and the Initiative for Kosovo. Of 120 seats in the Assembly, the PDK
won the most seats (37) and, as a result, the
right to form a government. After the elections, the LDK (30 seats), AAK (11 seats)
and the Initiative for Kosovo (6 seats) formed
a 47-seat coalition and claimed the right to
form a new government because their combined seat count was now the largest. On 10
September, the nationalist Self Determination party (16 seats) joined the coalition in
exchange for running a dialogue with Serbia
in a new government.
Seeking a solution to the crisis, Kosovo
President Atifete Jahjaga referred the issue
to the Constitutional Court, which ruled
that the PDK had the right, as the party that
won the most votes in the election, to nominate the candidate for speaker of the assembly. The court also ruled that the president
should nominate a PDK candidate for prime
minister. On 18 September, the PDK proposed a candidate only to be blocked by the
majority of the assembly members. Unable
to elect its president, the assembly adjourned
the session.
Though initially planned for 2 October,
the third session of the assembly was postponed until further notice with the aim of
ﬁnding an alternative solution to the crisis.
On 9 October, the opposition bloc gathered
in the assembly but failed to reach a quorum for a regular session due to the absence
of 58 members, mainly from the PDK and
minority parties. In the meantime, Jahjaga
continued consultations with the leaders of
the major political parties aimed at solving
the political impasse in a way that complied
with the ruling of the Constitutional Court.
The consultations did not result in any form
of agreement on the issue.
The ongoing constitutional crisis impacted the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, causing a standstill in
high-level meetings; the last one was held on
31 March. However, the dialogue has continued on a technical level, with several meetings on the implementation of 19 April agreement having taken place since March. On 8
October, the European Commission issued
its progress report on Kosovo, which outlined
the main areas of progress towards EU integration. While noting some positive developments, the report stressed the political crisis.
The report stated that failure to constitute
the new legislature smoothly and in a timely
manner has been a setback and that the new
government would need to launch a range of
comprehensive reforms, in particular electoral reform and public administration reform.
Earlier this year, the assembly adopted
a law transferring the functions of the EU
Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) special investigative task force to a special court that will
investigate cases involving war crimes and
allegations of organ trafficking by the Kosovo
Liberation Army during the conﬂict in Kosovo. Though expected to be fully operational
at the beginning of 2015, establishment of
the court could be postponed pending formation of the new government and adoption
of legislation necessary for the functioning
of the court.
On 23 October, Belgrade hosted an EU
Commission-sponsored Western Balkans
ministerial conference with participation
of foreign ministers from the region. Enver
Hoxhaj, Kosovo’s foreign minister, took
part in the meeting, making it the ﬁrst highlevel visit by a Kosovo official to Belgrade.
Addressing the media, Hoxhaj said that his
visit “shows that the process of normalization
of relations between Kosovo and Serbia as
two sovereign and independent states is at an
important phase”. Furthermore, Hoxhaj told
reporters that the dialogue between Belgrade
and Pristina should end with a peace treaty
that included Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo as an independent state and of Kosovo’s
admission to the UN.
The security situation in Kosovo remained
stable without major incidents. Kosovo
authorities have continued addressing the
issue of terrorism and participation of Kosovars in the conﬂicts in Syria and Iraq. On 17
September, Kosovo police arrested 15 suspects on charges of terrorism, threatening
the constitutional order and inciting religious
hate speech. Earlier in August, Kosovo police
UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7257 (29 August 2014) was the most recent debate on Kosovo.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
23
Kosovo (con’t)
Council dynamics on Kosovo remain
solution to the current crisis and forming a
new government in line with democratic and unchanged, with clear division among the
permanent members. France, the UK and
constitutional principles.
Key Issues
Once the constitutional crisis recedes, an the US recognise Kosovo while Russia is
Maintaining stability in Kosovo remains the option would be to consider lengthening the strongly supportive of Serbia on the Council.
main issue for the Council, especially in light reporting cycle on Kosovo in consideration This division will likely prevent any action
of the current political crisis, which could of the stabilisation of the situation following by the Council that would signiﬁcantly alter
potentially have destabilising effect on Kosovo. the 19 April agreement on the normalisation UNMIK’s mandate.
The contact and drafting group on KosoResumption of the EU-facilitated dia- of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
A likely option is for the Council to take no vo consists of France, Germany, Italy, Ruslogue and implementation of the existing
agreements between Belgrade and Pristina action, as has been the case for several years. sia, the UK and the US and also includes
Australia, Lithuania and Luxembourg as curis also an issue for the Council.
rent Council members representing the two
Council Dynamics
Options
Kosovo remains an issue of relative low inten- regional groups that include European states.
In November, Lithuania will take the lead
An option for the Council would be to issue sity in the Council as a result of the more
a statement calling on political leaders in active role of other international organisations, on Kosovo within the contact and drafting
group.
Kosovo to engage constructively in ﬁnding a primarily the EU, NATO and the OSCE.
arrested 40 persons suspected of supporting
extremist organisations.
DPRK (North Korea)
Expected Council Action
In November, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)
Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie
Lucas (Luxembourg), is due to brief Council members in consultations on the work of
the Committee.
Key Recent Developments
Lucas last briefed Council members on 5
August. There was also a discussion on the
DPRK during consultations on 20 August
under “any other business”. On that occasion,
Council members considered an 18 August
letter from the DPRK, in which it reiterated
its 21 July request for the Council to hold an
urgent meeting on the US-Republic of Korea
(ROK) joint military exercises, but did not
grant the request.
The Sanctions Committee met on 3 September to consider the mid-term report from
its Panel of Experts. In addition, the Committee discussed a 1 August update to the
Panel’s 28 April incident report concerning
the 26 March medium-range ballistic missile launches. The update covered the missile launches conducted in June and July
and reiterated the Panel’s recommendation
that the Committee designate the DPRK’s
strategic rocket ﬁre command and its head as
subject to sanctions. Meanwhile, the DPRK
reportedly ﬁred three short-range missiles on
6 September.
On the Korean Peninsula, attempts to
restart the political dialogue between the
DPRK and the ROK progressed slowly. On 4
October, officials from the two countries agreed
to resume high-level talks later that month or
in November. (The last such talks, and the ﬁrst
in seven years, were held on 12 February.) On
7 October, however, the two countries’ navies
exchanged ﬁre after a DPRK vessel crossed the
Northern Limit Line, the disputed sea border
in theYellow Sea. Furthermore, on 10 October,
the DPRK opened ﬁre near the demilitarised
zone dividing the Korean Peninsula after activists in the ROK sent balloons across the border
carrying propaganda leaﬂets. Top military officials from the two sides met on 15 October to
discuss the incidents but apparently failed to
narrow any differences. On 19 October, there
was yet another exchange of gunﬁre within the
demilitarised zone. In a later development, the
DPRK rejected an ROK proposal to hold talks
on 30 October, citing the ROK’s failure to prevent the continuation of leaﬂet launches.
There were reports about reviving the
six-party talks that have been stalled since
2009—these talks focused on the DPRK’s
nuclear programme and involve China, the
DPRK, Japan, the ROK, Russia and the US.
On 1 October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after a meeting in Moscow
with his DPRK counterpart that he saw a
possibility for the talks to resume and on 2
October the DPRK Ambassador in Geneva, So Se-pyong, reiterated that his country
was ready to restart the talks. The US Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks, Sydney Seiler,
travelled to Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo for consultations from 28 September to 1 October
together with the US Special Representative
for North Korea Policy, Glyn Davies, and
again from 27 October to 1 November.
International focus on the human rights
situation in the DPRK intensiﬁed as the
General Assembly’s Third Committee began
negotiations on the annual resolution on the
human rights situation in the DPRK sponsored by Japan and the EU. The initial draft
encouraged the Security Council to consider
the recommendations of the Commission of
Inquiry established by the Human Rights
Council, including referring the situation in
the DPRK to the ICC and imposing targeted
sanctions against those most responsible for
crimes against humanity. (The Commission’s
UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DPRK Security Council Resolution S/RES/21410DUFKH[WHQGHGXQWLO$SULOWKH3DQHORI([SHUWŠVPDQGDWHDQGUHTXHVWHGDPLGWHUPUHSRUW
by 5 August. Security Council Letters S/2014/668 (15 September 2014) was from the DPRK transmitting its own human rights report. S/2014/604 (18 August 2014) was from the DPRK
UHLWHUDWLQJD-XO\UHTXHVWWKDWWKH&RXQFLOIRUPDOO\FRQVLGHUWKH8652.MRLQWPLOLWDU\H[HUFLVHVS/2014/276 (14 April 2014) transmitted the Commission of Inquiry report to the Council.
Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/27/10 (2 July 2014) was the report of the working group on the Universal Periodic Review of the DPRK.
24
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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
DPRK (North Korea) (con’t)
report was transmitted to the Council on 14
April by Australia, France and the US.)
Meanwhile, in a 15 September letter
the DPRK submitted its own report on
the human rights situation in the country.
According to the letter, the report “reﬂects
efforts…to lay bare the false nature of the
reckless anti-DPRK ‘human rights’ racket
kicked up by hostile forces”. The DPRK also
proposed in the Third Committee an alternative to the draft resolution circulated by
Japan and the EU that would exclude any
reference to international justice mechanisms
and instead call for dialogue and negotiations.
On 27 October, in New York, DPRK officials
for the ﬁrst time met with the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in
North Korea, Marzuki Darusman, and invited him to visit Pyongyang, but on the condition that any reference to the ICC would
be dropped from the draft resolution under
consideration in the Third Committee. In a
brieﬁng to the Third Committee on 28 October, Darusman welcomed the DPRK’s willingness to engage in a discussion on human
rights and also said the change in attitude
had perhaps been prompted by the increased
attention resulting from the Commission of
Inquiry report.
Human Rights-Related Developments
The Human Rights Council adopted the outcomes
of the Universal Periodic Review of the DPRK on
6HSWHPEHU7KH'35.IRUWKHƃUVWWLPHDFFHSWed some of the report’s recommendations (113 out
of 268). Speakers welcomed the DPRK’s engagement and acknowledged progress in the rights of
persons with disabilities. They stressed, however,
the importance of genuine cooperation with the
international community to address the human
ULJKWV VLWXDWLRQ DQG H[SUHVVHG JUDYH FRQFHUQ
that more than half of the recommendations were
rejected, including calls to close political prison
camps immediately, abolish the death penalty,
prohibit the use of torture and ill-treatment, estabOLVKDV\VWHPWRSUHYHQWVH[XDOYLROHQFHDJDLQVW
female prisoners and an end arbitrary detention
and enforced disappearances.
Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is how to respond
to the DPRK’s continued ﬂouting of all relevant resolutions, in particular its recent missile launches.
A further key issue is the DPRK’s continued refusal to engage in any sustained dialogue with the international community.
An additional issue is whether the Council
should address the human rights situation in
the DPRK.
At the Sanctions Committee-level, a key
issue is the overall effective implementation
of the sanctions regime. A key procedural
issue is whether to update the Committee
guidelines, which have not been revised since
ﬁrst agreed on 20 June 2007. (At press time,
the chair had indicated that a proposal for
revised guidelines would soon be circulated.)
Options
With regard to the upcoming chair’s brieﬁng,
Council members could reiterate their support for the recommendations of the Commission of Inquiry while emphasising the link
between the DPRK’s proliferation activities
and its human rights violations. They could
also indicate that they would welcome regular brieﬁngs by the High Commissioner for
Human Rights on the situation in the DPRK.
In the Sanctions Committee, Council members could agree to the new sanctions listings recommended by the Panel of
Experts. Alternatively, the Committee could
send a letter to the DPRK with the updated incident report and request a written
response. A further option would be to revise
the guidelines.
Council and Wider Dynamics
The discussions in the Sanctions Committee on how to respond to the DPRK’s rocket launches have followed traditional dividing lines between those calling for a strong
response such as additional sanctions designations, including the US and like-minded
countries, and more cautious members, such
as China and Russia. China in particular continues to argue that any further Council action
will only be counterproductive and aggravate
tensions in the region while advocating for
a resumption of the six-party talks. Russia
appears sympathetic to the DPRK’s criticism
of the US-ROK joint military exercises.
With regard to the human rights situation, at press time Council members were
focused on the negotiations underway in the
General Assembly. Members supporting further action seemed to be hoping for a strong
Third Committee resolution, including clear
recommendations to the Council that could
serve to increase the pressure against the
DPRK, and also against China, which would
be expected to veto an ICC referral. While
they welcomed the DPRK’s apparent willingness to engage with the international community, they also stressed that the regime in
Pyongyang had to be judged by its actions
and not by its words. In the past this resolution has traditionally been adopted by consensus, but it seems this year the sponsors
have signalled a willingness to take it to a
vote if necessary to achieve a strong outcome.
(Final adoption of the resolution is expected
in late November.)
The US is the Council penholder on the
DPRK.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Expected Council Action
Herzegovina and to renew the authorisation
In November, the Council is expected to for the EU-led multinational stabilisation
hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and force (EUFOR ALTHEA) for a year. At the
debate, High Representative Valentin Inzko is
expected to brief on recent developments and
present his office’s latest report to the Council.
81 '2&80(176 21 %261,$ $1' +(5=(*29,1$Security Council Resolution S/RES/2123 (12 November 2013) reauthorized the EU-led multinational stabilisation mission in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.71760D\ZDVDEULHƃQJE\WKH+LJK5HSUHVHQWDWLYHGXULQJWKH&RXQFLOGHEDWHRQWKHVLWXDWLRQLQ%RVQLDDQG
Herzegovina. Security Council Letters S/2014/531 (25 July 2014) was the report on the activities of EUFOR from 1 December 2013 to 28 February 2014. S/2014/314 (5 May 2014) was
the High Representative’s report covering the period 21 October 2013 to 21 April 2014.
86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&(6Bosnia’s Future, Europe Report Number 232, International Crisis Group, 10 July 2014. Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions of 12
October 2014, BiH General Elections, OSCE International Election Observation Mission.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
25
Bosnia and Herzegovina (con’t)
The current authorisation for EUFOR damages and economic losses amounted to
around 2 billion euros. Neighbouring Serbia
ALTHEA expires on 12 November.
also experienced severe damage from ﬂooding, estimated at 1.5 billion euros. The govKey Recent Developments
General elections were held on 12 October ernment’s handling of relief efforts generated
for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three-member criticism from both the public and the interpresidency, the national parliament and entity national community. However, over the last
and local governments. The Organization for six months, the civic activism that followed a
Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), wave of major protests in February over sociowhich had a 294-person monitoring team economic conditions and political corruption
on the ground, released a statement that the has mostly faded.
On 8 October the EU Commission issued
elections had been conducted in an orderly
manner, candidates had been able to cam- its annual progress reports on the EU integrapaign freely and that freedoms of expression, tion of Western Balkan countries. In its report
association and assembly were respected. The on Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Commisstatement highlighted, however, that ethnicity- sion concluded that the country’s integration
based legal restrictions place limits on voting remained at a standstill while most of its neighrights and candidates’ ability to run for office, bours were moving ahead decisively and that
its leaders lacked the political will to address
contrary to OSCE standards and EU law.
It appears that Milorad Dodik will retain his the reforms required for progressing on the
position as president of the Republika Srpska, EU path.
On 20 October, the EU Foreign Affairs
one of the two entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the results were seen as disappointing Council adopted its conclusions on Bosnia and
for his ruling Alliance of Independent Social Herzegovina, welcoming the way the elections
Democrats party (SNSD). An opposition can- had been conducted and reiterated calls for the
didate, Mladen Ivanić won the Bosnian-Serb leadership to address the challenges facing the
seat of the rotating presidency, and the SNSD country as it moves towards European intelost seats in the parliament and the Republika gration. The conclusions expressed the EU’s
intentions to maintain EUFOR ALTHEA
Srpska assembly.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herze- under a UN mandate.
A civil court in The Hague ruled on 16
govina—the other entity that is predominantly
Bosniak and Croat—the Social Democratic July that the Netherlands must compensate
Party, which had been the largest, did very the families of around 300 Bosnian Muslims
poorly across the national parliament, entity killed at Srebrenica after Dutch peacekeepers
and cantonal elections, losing most of its seats. in July 1995 turned the men, who were in their
Bakir Izetbegović of the Party for Democratic compound, over to Bosnian Serb forces. The
Action retained the Bosniak seat in the tripar- court, however, found that the Netherlands
tite presidency. The Croat seat in the presiden- could not be held liable for the majority of the
cy was won by Dragan Čović, whose nation- 8,000 Bosnian Muslims killed at Srebrenica, a
alistic party has advocated the creation of a UN designated safe area, because they were
third separate Croat entity. He replaces Željko never in the direct custody of the Dutch troops.
Komšić as the Croat member of the rotating
presidency, who opposed a separate entity. Key Issues
In several media interviews during October, The immediate issue for the Council is renewDodik said that he would support the creation ing the authorisation of EUFOR ALTHEA
of a Croat entity.
under Chapter VII.
To maintain stability during the election
Another issue is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s
period, EUFOR ALTHEA was reinforced in political gridlock and the failure of its politiJune with two UK reconnaissance platoons cal system and leaders to address the sociototalling 90 personnel for a period of up to economic challenges facing the country, which
six months.
sparked major protests last February and has
In May, Bosnia and Herzegovina suffered stalled European and NATO integration.
severe ﬂoods following some of the heaviest
Ethnic divisions between Bosniaks, Crorains ever recorded in the region. At least 20 ats and Serbs and secessionist rhetoric from
people died, 90,000 people were displaced and Republika Srpska, which is a direct challenge
26
whatsinblue.org
to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity and the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended
the country’s war, is an ongoing related issue.
Continuing lack of progress towards achieving a set of objectives and conditions established by members of the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board (Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, US, the EU,
the European Commission and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference) for closing the
Office of the High Representative is another
issue likely to be recalled at the debate.
Options
One option is to renew the authorisation of
EUFOR ALTHEA for a further 12 months
and, while reﬂecting the recent developments and the conclusions of the EU Foreign
Affairs Council, refrain from making substantive changes to the resolution.
A less likely option is to renew the
authorisation but also call for a revision of
the criteria for closing the Office of the High
Representative.
Council Dynamics
Bosnia and Herzegovina is an issue on which
the Council follows the lead of the EU Foreign
Affairs Council. Most members are concerned
about the political gridlock and economic
stagnation and are critical of Dodik’s divisive
rhetoric. Within the EU, the UK—siding with
the US—has been more vocal about maintaining international engagement in Bosnia
and Herzegovina, compared to France, which
has been less convinced about the continuing
need for EUFOR and the Office of the High
Representative. Ongoing problems in Bosnia
and Herzegovina appear to be one reason why
it is expected that there will be little change
in the upcoming resolution. Russia feels that
Republika Srpska is wrongly blamed for the
country’s problems and wants the Office of
the High Representative closed.
The Contact and Drafting Group, which
drafts decisions on Bosnia and Herzegovina
before they are considered by the Council,
consists of France, Germany, Italy, Russia,
the UK and the US and elected members
of the Council from the Western European
and Other Group and the Eastern European Group. That means Australia, Lithuania
and Luxembourg are currently also part of
the drafting group. The penholder rotates
monthly and in November is Lithuania.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
International Court of Justice
Expected Council Action
The Security Council and General Assembly will hold elections for the International
Court of Justice (ICJ) on 6 November. Five
judges will need to be elected to the ICJ,
each for a term of nine years commencing
on 6 February 2015.
Background
The ICJ consists of 15 judges elected for nine
year terms by the General Assembly and the
Council. Five seats come up for election
every three years.
Candidates are nominated by national
groups represented on the Permanent Court
of Arbitration. When making nominations,
members of each national group are recommended to consult their highest national
court, national legal faculties and national
schools of law. No group may nominate more
than four persons. The names of candidates
are then communicated to the SecretaryGeneral to prepare a list of nominations.
Although there is no formal requirement
for geographical distribution, article 9 of the
ICJ Statute requires representation of the
“main forms of civilization and of the principal legal systems of the world”. In practice, the Court’s composition reﬂects that
of the Security Council with the P5 always
having a judge on the bench. Currently, the
distribution is as follows: Africa, 3; Latin
America and the Caribbean, 2; Asia, 3; Western Europe and other states, 5; and Eastern
Europe, 2. The ﬁve judges whose terms are
to expire are nationals of Mexico, Morocco,
New Zealand, Russia and the US.
Candidates
In this election, nine candidates are contesting ﬁve positions. The candidates are: Susana Ruiz Cerutti (Argentina), James Richard
Crawford (Australia), Sayeman Bula-Bula
(Democratic Republic of the Congo), Patrick Lipton Robinson (Jamaica), Eugénie
Liliane Arivony (Madagascar), Jemal Ould
Agatt (Mauritania), Mohamed Bennouna
(Morocco), Kirill Gevorgian (Russia) and
Joan E. Donoghue (US). Two candidates—
Donoghue (US) and Bennouna (Morocco)—
are current members of the ICJ. (ICJ judges may be re-elected for up to two further
terms.)
Election Process
Article 8 of the ICJ Statute states the General Assembly and Security Council shall
proceed independently of one another to
elect the members of the Court in a secret
ballot. Candidates who obtain an absolute
majority of votes (i.e. a majority of all electors, whether or not they vote or are allowed
to vote) in both the General Assembly and
the Council are elected. A candidate therefore must obtain 97 votes in the former and
eight votes in the latter. In the Council vote,
there is no distinction between permanent
and non-permanent members.
Each elector may vote for ﬁve candidates
on the ﬁrst ballot. If the number of candidates obtaining an absolute majority is less
than ﬁve on the ﬁrst ballot, a second ballot for the remaining positions will be held
and balloting will continue until ﬁve candidates have obtained the required majority. If
more than the required number of candidates
obtain an absolute majority on the same ballot in either organ, a new vote on all the candidates will be held. In the event that the
ﬁve candidates elected by one organ are not
the same as those elected by the other, both
will proceed (independently) to new balloting
to ﬁll the unresolved seats. This process will
continue for three meetings when, if any positions are still not ﬁlled, the Council and the
General Assembly may decide to convene a
conference of six members (three from each)
to recommend a candidate for acceptance by
the General Assembly and Council.
Results are usually achieved quickly in
the Council, but balloting in the General
Assembly can take much longer. In the last
regular elections held on 10 November 2011,
four of the ﬁve vacant seats were ﬁlled with
candidates obtaining an absolute majority in
both the General Assembly and the Council in the ﬁrst round of voting (S/PV.6651).
After holding four additional ballots, the
ﬁfth vacant seat remained unﬁlled. Abdul G.
Koroma (Sierra Leone) received the required
majority in the Council while Julia Sebutinde
(Uganda) received the required majority in
the General Assembly. This voting pattern
continued on 22 November, when balloting
was suspended. It resumed on 13 December,
when Sebutinde was declared elected after
receiving an absolute majority in both (S/
PV.6682).
According to article 2 of the ICJ Statute, members of the Court are to be elected,
“regardless of their nationality, from among
persons of high moral character, who possess
the qualiﬁcations required in their respective
countries for appointment to the highest judicial offices, or are juris-consults of recognized
competence in international law.” No two
nationals from the same state can hold office
at the same time, and once elected, a judge is
a delegate neither of the government of his or
her own country nor of any other state.
Council Dynamics
Permanent members of the Council have
no legal entitlement to representation on
the ICJ. However, judges from the P5 are
usually present on the Court. This practice
favours the election of Gevorgian (Russia)
and Donoghue (US). Regional considerations are also likely to play a role, posing a
challenge for candidates from the same geographical region. Based on this, it is likely
that Crawford (Australia) will be elected in
the uncontested Western Europe and other
vacancy, with Cerutti (Argentina) and Robinson (Jamaica) running against each other
for the Latin America and Caribbean seat
and Bula-Bula (Democratic Republic of the
Congo), Arivony (Madagascar), Agatt (Mauritania) and Bennouna (Morocco) running
against each other for the Africa vacancy.
81'2&80(176217+(,&-Security Council Letters S/2014/520 (4 August 2014) was a memorandum from the Secretary-General setting out the procedure for the ICJ elections.
S/2014/521 (4 August 2014) was a list of the ICJ vacancies and the candidates nominated. S/2014/522 (4 August 2014) contained the curricula vitae of candidates nominated for the ICJ.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014
securitycouncilreport.org
27
Notable Dates for November
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17 October
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S/RES/2125
27 October
OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118
(Syrian chemical weapons)
S/RES/2118
31 October
SG report on UNMIK (Kosovo)
S/RES/1244
31 October
SG report on UNAMI (Iraq)
S/RES/2169
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SG report on UNMISS (South Sudan)
S/RES/2155
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Research Analyst
5 November
SG report on the implementation of resolution 1701
(UNIFIL/Lebanon)
S/RES/2172
Charles Cater
Research Analyst
early November
High Representative’s Report on Bosnia and Herzegovina
S/RES/2123
Dahlia Morched
5HVHDUFK$QDO\VW
Communications Coordinator
11 November
SG report on Iraq/Kuwait Missing Persons and Property
S/RES/2107
12 November
SG update on the assessment of UNIOGBIS (Guinea-Bissau)
S/RES/2157
S/2014/528
S/2014/529
18 November
SG report on humanitarian access in Syria
S/RES/2139
S/RES/2165
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Senior Research Analyst
Shamala Kandiah Thompson
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Research Analyst
Paul Romita
Research Analyst
Eran Sthoeger
Research Analyst
Benjamin Villanti
Research Analyst
Robbin VanNewkirk
Publications Coordinator
5(/(9$17
DOCUMENT
Vladimir Sesar
Research Associate
12 November
EUFOR in Bosnia and Herzegovina
S/RES/2123
Lindiwe Knutson
Research Assistant
18 November
Authorisation of anti-piracy measures in Somalia
S/RES/2125
Maritza Tenerelli
Administrative Assistant
30 November
UNMISS (South Sudan)
S/RES/2155
Marie-Eve Loiselle
Endeavor Fellow
30 November
UNIOGBIS (Guinea-Bissau)
S/RES/2157
Stevenson Swanson
Editorial Consultant
Security Council Report is a nonSURƃWRUJDQLVDWLRQVXSSRUWHGE\WKH
Governments of Angola, Australia,
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark,
Finland, Ireland, Kazakhstan,
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Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey and Uraguay, and
the Ford Foundation and John D. and
Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014