Technical Picks | November 1, 2014 Stay with the flow - 8500 in sight Sensex (27866) / Nifty (8322) After the long weekend of the previous week on account of the Diwali festival, our market opened higher on Monday. However, the Nifty corrected a bit during the second half of the session and eventually closed marginally in the negative territory. The next two trading sessions too opened higher and maintained their positive bias just ahead of the October month derivative expiry session. However, the overall movement was quite range bound. The remaining sessions of the week too traded with strong upward momentum, but the price activity was much bigger than in the previous sessions. As a result, the Nifty eventually managed to close the week at its highest point ever. All the defined sectors closed in the green for the week among which the Capital Goods, Banking, Auto and Oil & Gas sectors were the major gainers. The Nifty ended the week with a sizable gain of 3.84% over the previous week's closing. Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart Source: Falcon Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart Pattern formation: The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at 25996 / 7780 and 22637 / 6774 levels, respectively. The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at 26707 / 8010 and 26003 / 7784 levels, respectively. Future outlook Source: Falcon Our market has seen a v-shaped recovery in the concluded week from the lows witnessed in the sessions preceding to it. A couple of weeks back; few might have anticipated that the Nifty would hit a new all time high any time sooner. Honestly speaking, despite having a continuous positive view from the level of 7750 on the Nifty, we did not expect an all time high to be printed so soon. Until the first half of Thursday's session, we expected 8080 to 8120 levels to act as an immediate hurdle for the bulls. But the way the Nifty thrashed these levels post the midsession on Thursday, we expected it to hit a new high. In-line with our view, the Nifty opened with an upside gap at 8200 on Friday and continued its northward journey till the last trade of the session. In the process, the Nifty even surpassed the 8300 mark on a closing basis. Technically speaking, the Nifty has now broken out from the 'Horizontal Line' resistance with a 'Breakaway Gap'. This technical development indicates strong optimism among the market participants. Hence, looking at the ongoing momentum across the broader market, we expect to the market to continue to trade firm in the coming few trading sessions as well. The near term targets on the Nifty are now seen around 8450 - 8550 levels, which is the 127% 'Price Extension' of the previous rally from the recent low of 7723.85 7723.85. Hence, we advise traders to remain with the flow and avoid initiating short positions. On the flipside, 8180 - 8040 levels would now be seen as strong supports for the Nifty. For Private Circulation Only | We have been advising traders to accumulate value buying propositions since the last few weeks and we reinstate our advice this week as well. AngelBrokingLtd:BSESebiRegnNo:INB010996539/CDSLRegnNo:IN-DP-CDSL-234-2004/PMSRegnCode:PM/INP000001546AngelSecuritiesLtd:BSE:INB010994639/INF010994639NSE:INB230994635/INF230994635Membershipnumbers:BSE028/NSE:09946 1 Technical Picks | November 1, 2014 Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks SCRIPS S2 S1 PIV OT PIVO R1 R2 SENSEX 26,328 27,097 27,496 28,264 28,663 NIFTY 7,868 8,095 8,213 8,440 8,558 16,269 16,657 16,859 17,247 17,448 1,540 BANKNIFTY 1,438 1,469 1,489 1,519 AMBUJACEM 212 220 225 232 237 ASIANPAINT 635 646 652 664 670 ACC AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO 413 426 433 446 453 2,412 2,512 2,570 2,669 2,728 BANKBARODA 867 898 916 947 964 BHEL 235 246 252 263 270 BPCL 660 693 711 743 761 BHARTIARTL 383 391 404 412 425 CAIRN 268 277 283 292 298 CIPLA 600 633 653 686 706 COALINDIA 339 355 363 379 388 DLF 102 114 120 132 138 2,918 3,043 3,122 3,248 3,327 449 489 520 560 592 GRASIM 3,273 3,390 3,458 3,576 3,643 HCLTECH 1,426 1,517 1,571 1,662 1,716 877 894 905 922 932 HDFC 1,005 1,056 1,083 1,133 1,160 HEROMOTOCO 3,189 DRREDDY GAIL HDFCBANK 2,943 3,004 3,066 3,127 HINDALCO 138 151 158 171 177 HINDUNILVR 678 708 737 767 796 1,675 1,544 1,585 1,609 1,651 IDFC 138 147 153 161 167 INDUSINDBK 673 697 709 733 746 4,262 ICICIBANK 3,660 3,856 3,961 4,157 ITC 342 349 354 361 366 JINDALSTEL 140 151 157 168 175 KOTAKBANK 1,045 1,081 1,102 1,139 1,159 LT 1,524 1,590 1,627 1,692 1,729 LUPIN 1,277 1,323 1,366 1,412 1,455 M&M 1,206 1,256 1,290 1,340 1,373 MARUTI 3,020 3,179 3,264 3,423 3,509 NMDC 155 163 168 176 182 NTPC 142 146 149 152 155 INFY ONGC 382 394 400 412 418 POWERGRID 137 142 144 148 151 PNB 873 902 924 953 975 RELIANCE 899 950 977 1,027 1,054 SSLT 242 249 254 261 266 SBIN 2,536 2,619 2,665 2,748 2,793 769 807 828 867 888 2,383 2,495 2,558 2,670 2,733 489 513 526 549 562 85 89 92 96 99 430 460 477 507 524 TECHM 2,251 2,384 2,454 2,587 2,657 ULTRACEMCO 2,350 2,449 2,505 2,604 2,659 WIPRO 539 552 559 571 579 ZEEL 309 327 340 358 371 SUNPHARMA TCS TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL Technical Research Team For Private Circulation Only | AngelBrokingLtd:BSESebiRegnNo:INB010996539/CDSLRegnNo:IN-DP-CDSL-234-2004/PMSRegnCode:PM/INP000001546AngelSecuritiesLtd:BSE:INB010994639/INF010994639NSE:INB230994635/INF230994635Membershipnumbers:BSE028/NSE:09946 2 Derivatives Review | November 1, 2014 Significant formation of longs by FIIs Nifty spot closed at 8322.20 this week against a close of 7995.90 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.87 to 0.93 levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.95% 4.95%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 16.87% 16.87%. Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis PCR-OI has increased from 0.87 to 0.93 mainly due to Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 11.02%.to significant amount of buildup in put options. We have been 12.10%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 18.22% and witnessing good amount of open interest addition from start of that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 25.74%. Liquid counters last week in November series. Significant buildup was observed having very high HV are DLF, JINDALSTEL, UNITECH, in both call and put options. Buildup is quite scattered, 8300 - JPASSOCIAT and GMRINFRA. Stocks where HV are on lower 8500 call options and 8100 & 8200 put options has added side are ITC, COLPAL, POWERGRID, HDFCBANK and NTPC. more than 5 digit contracts last week. Maximum buildup in current series has shifted from 8200 to 8500 call options & of put options is at 8100 strike price. Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis Total open interest of market has decreased from Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 30.50 `2,23,491/- cr. to `1,80,015/- cr. Stock futures open interest points against the premium of 61.50 points to its spot. Next has decreased from `58,120/- cr. to `56,143/- cr. Large month future is trading with premium of 80.90 points. Liquid cap names which added significant positions last week are counters where CoC is high are HDFCBANK, PTC, JPPOWER, GAIL, BHARTIARTL, MARUTI, HEROMOTOCO and GRASIM. JSWENERGY and IDFC. Stocks with negative CoC are BHEL, On the other hand unwinding was visible in counters like NMDC, SAIL, JUBLFOOD and BANKINDIA. AMBUJACEM, DRREDDY, HCLTECH, NMDC and COALINDIA. Derivative Strategy Scrip : NIFTY CMP : 8322.20 View: Mildly Bullish Lot Size : 25 Strategy: Long Call Expected Payoff Buy/Sell Qty Scrip Strike Price Series Option Ty p e Buy/Sell Rate (`) BUY 25 NIFTY 8500 NOV CE 40.00 BEP - 8540/- Max. Risk: `1,000/If NIFTY closes on or below strike price on expiry. Max. Profit: Unlimited If NIFTY continues to move above BEP. NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in favorable direction. For Private Circulation Only | Exercise Date (F & O) : 27th. Nov 2014 Closing PPrice rice ((` `) Expected oss rofit/Loss Profit/L 8250 (`40.00) 8350 (`40.00) 8450 (`40.00) 8550 `10.00 8650 `110.00 8750 `210.00 AngelBrokingLtd:BSESebiRegnNo:INB010996539/CDSLRegnNo:IN-DP-CDSL-234-2004/PMSRegnCode:PM/INP000001546AngelSecuritiesLtd:BSE:INB010994639/INF010994639NSE:INB230994635/INF230994635Membershipnumbers:BSE028/NSE:09946 3 Weekly Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Weekly 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected] Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected] Amarjeet Maurya Analyst (FMCG, Media, Mid-Cap) [email protected] Bharat Gianani Analyst (Automobile) [email protected] Shrenik Gujrathi Analyst (Cap Goods, Cement) [email protected] Umesh Matkar Analyst (Banking) [email protected] Twinkle Gosar Analyst (Mid-Cap) [email protected] Tejas Vahalia Research Editor [email protected] Siddarth Bhamre Head – Technical & Derivatives [email protected] Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected] Nagesh Arekar Executive [email protected] Sneha Seth Associates (Derivatives) [email protected] Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected] Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected] Gaurang Tisani Assistant Manager [email protected] Production Incharge [email protected] Technicals and Derivatives: Institutional Sales Team: Production Team: Dilip Patel CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Tel.: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No: INB010996539 / PMS Regd Code: PM/INP000001546 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / NSE Sebi Regn Nos: Cash: INB231279838 / NSE F&O: INF231279838/ Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500 / Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
© Copyright 2024