1. No category

Værdiansættelse i
praksis
Erfaringer med DCF-modellen
Finansforeningen, 24 April 2015
Tina Aggerholm, VP Group Accounting
Andreas Mailand, Director IFRS Controlling
Anvendte DCF modeller
Aktiv
Model
Formål
Virksomhed
DCF, typisk 10 årig
M&A
Trinvise opkøb og frasalg
Interne overdragelser
CGU
DCF, typisk 3 årig
Nedskrivningstest
Varemærke, licens rettighed
Relief from royalty
Virksomhedsopkøb
Nedskrivningstest
Bryggeri
DCF, typisk 10 årig
Nedskrivningstest
Kundeforhold,
logistik forretninger
DCF, aftalebestemt
Interne overdragelser
Virksomhedsopkøb
Rettigheder
Afhænger af aftale
Virksomhedsopkøb
Interne overdragelser
CapEx
DCF afhængig af
investeringsmodel
Investeringsanmodning
1
Sammenhænge i forudsætninger
Diskontering
Forecast
periode
Estimeret cash
flow
Vækst i forecast
perioden
Vækst i
terminalperiode
DCF, med
risikovægtede
cash flow
scenarier
Risikofri
rente
3 år
Frit cash flow ihht
budget og target
for følgende år;
Korrigeret for ikke
DCF-relevante
poster
N/A - Anvender
specifikt
budgetteret/
target vækst
Forventet
langsigtet inflation
DCF, uden
risikovægtede
cash flow
scenarier
Wacc, efter
skat
5-10 år
Cash flow
estimeret pba
EBITDA, CapEx og
skat
Individuelt for:
- Volumen
- Salgspris
- Indkøbspris/
Cogs
- EBIT/EBITDA
- Investeringer
Forventet
langsigtet inflation
Relief from
Royalty
Wacc, efter
skat
Op til 20 år
Royalty indtægt
estimeret som %
af omsætning
(Royalty rate)
Omsætning
Forventet
langsigtet
inflation;
Dog individuelt
højere/lavere ved
særlige forventninger/markedsposition
Markedsdata
Egne data, erfaringer,
forventninger
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Oplysninger i årsrapporten – Section 2.3
Future free cash flow
Goodwill
The expected future free cash flow (value in use) is based
on budgets and business plans for the next three years and
projections for subsequent years.
Trademarks
The impairment test of trademarks is performed using the
relief from royalty method and is based on expected
future free cash flows from the Group’s calculated royalty
income generated by the individual trademark for the
next 20 years and projections for subsequent years.
Growth rates
Growth rates are determined for each individual cash-generating unit,
trademark and item of property, plant and equipment tested. The growth
rates applied for the terminal period are in line with the expected rate of
inflation.
The applied projections for growth rates and discount rates are compared
to ensure a reasonable link between the two (real interest rate).
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Vækst rater
Oplysninger i årsrapporten – Section 2.3
Goodwill
The budgets and target plans are based on concrete commercial initiatives, and
the risks associated with the key parameters are assessed and incorporated in
expected future free cash flows. The impairment test is based on scenarios for
possible future cash flows. Potential upsides and downsides identified during the
budget process and in the daily business are reflected in the future cash flow
scenarios for each individual cash-generating unit. The scenarios reflect, among
other things, different assumptions about combinations of market, price and
input cost developments.
Projections for the terminal period are based on general expectations and risks,
taking into account the general growth expectations for the brewing industry in
the relevant segments. The growth rates applied are not expected to exceed the
average long-term growth rate for the Group’s individual geographical segments.
Trademarks
For each individual trademark, a 20-year curve is projected, reflecting the expected
future growth in revenue per year. Depending on the expectations for the individual
trademark, the growth in individual years is above, equal to or below the current
inflation level in the countries where the individual trademark is sold.
The curve for each individual trademark is determined by reference to its market position,
the overall condition of the markets where the trademark is marketed, as well
as regional and national macroeconomic trends etc. For some trademarks, national,
regional and international potential has been linked to the value of the trademark, and
investments in terms of product development and marketing strategy are expected to
be made. For these trademarks, the expected growth rate is generally higher than for
comparable trademarks, especially at the beginning of the 20-year period. The growth
rates determined for the terminal period are in line with the expected rate of inflation.
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Royalty rate og levetid
Royalty rate
Royalty income generated by the trademark is based
on the Group’s total income and earned globally, i.e.
the income is also earned outside the segment that
owns the trademark.
If external license agreements for the individual
trademark already exist, the market terms of such
agreements are considered when assessing the
royalty rate which the trademark is expected to
generate in a transaction with independent parties.
Eksport og koncern
ekstern licens
The royalty rate is based on the actual market position
of the individual trademark in the global, regional and
local markets.
International, premium
and speciality beers
3.5 - 15.0%
Strong regional and national
trademarks
3.0 - 5.0%
Local trademarks and
mainstream trademarks
2.0 - 3.5%
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Udfordringer – Risikofri rente og inflation
Risikofri Rente
(Wacc element)
Inflation og
realrente
•
•
•
Hvad er den forventede lange rente – på langt sigt……
Kan den altid observeres ?
Hvordan estimeres den lange rente, når den ikke kan observeres
•
Hvad er en realistisk realrente på langt sigt
• Vesteuropa; f.x. Grækenland
• Østeuropa; f.x. Rusland, Ukraine
• Asien; f.x. Kina, Indien, Vietnam ….
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”Alle” forventer af de
Asiatiske økonomier
tilnærmer sig
Europæiske økonomier...
Men hvornår…..?
%
10
8
Hvad er ”den
rigtige” realrente i
fremtiden?
Er den konstant?
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Rente
4
Inflation
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
År
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Udfordringer – Wacc elementer
Equity risk
premium
Leveraged
Beta
Amerikansk
studie viser at
4.5% er
”rigtig” på
langt sigt
Observerbar?
Undgå
markedsstøj
Risk free
interest rate
Debt premium
Tax rate
Hvad er den
lange rente for
virksomheden
hhv. for
markedet
Påvirkning fra
usædvanlige
”spidser” i de
finansielle
markeder
Skatte%,
lempelser, skat
på dividende
Cost of debt pretax
Risk premium
Cost of Equity
Cost of debt
Vægtet med optimal kapitalstruktur
Risk free
interest rate
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Udfordringer – CGU’er
CGU’er
Selskaber der er integreret
regionalt eller sub-regional
testes i en samlet CGU
Alle markeds-input faktorer skal vægtes – skal dække hele regionen
EBIT – Herved undgås langsigtet påvirkning fra kortsigtet udsving i f.x. CapEx
Valuta omregning
Rente
Hyperinflation
Valg af ”test”-valuta
Hvis ikke forventet
langsigtet udvikling er ens,
sker der en skævvridning
Forsigtighed ved
hyperinflation
•
Hovedvaluta
Udfordring, når valutaerne
ikke korrelerer ens;
•
•
bånd til andre valutaer,
forskellige olie-afhængighed
•
Forskellig økonomisk styrke,
(u-)afhængighed
•
Væksten fra landet bliver’ for
lav (høj) ved vægtning
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Oplysninger i årsrapporten – Section 2.3
Discount rates applied
The risk-free interest rates used in
impairment tests performed at year-end 2014
were based on observed market data. For
countries where long-term risk-free interest
rates are not observable or valid due to
specific national or macroeconomic changes
affecting the country, the interest rate is
estimated based on observations from other
markets and/or long-term expectations
expressed by major international credit
institutions.
The risk premium (spread) for the risk-free
interest rate was fixed at market price or
slightly lower reflecting the expected long-term
market price.
The total interest rate, including spread,
thereby reflected the long-term interest rate
applicable to the Group’s investments in the
individual markets.
Discount Rates (Trademarks)
In the impairment testing of trademarks, the Group uses
a post-tax discount rate for each country. In determining
the discount rate, a risk premium (spread) on the riskfree interest rate is fixed at a level that reflects
management’s expectations of the spread for future
borrowings. The total interest rate, including spread,
thereby reflects the long-term interest rate applicable to
the Group’s investments in the individual markets.
The tax rate is the expected future tax rate in each
country based on current legislation. The impairment
test at year-end 2014 incorporated tax rates in the
range of 15-38%.
The WACC rates in Asia vary within a wide range with
the lowest rate for China and developed countries,
whereas the subcontinent, including India and Nepal,
has the highest WACC rates in the region.
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