NUDGE Folkeoplysning eller velment manipulation? ANDREAS MAALØE JESPERSEN Ph.D Stud. Roskilde Universitet mail: [email protected] web: forskning.ruc.dk/site/person/anmaje twitter: @Andreasmaaloe problemer 47 pct. af befolkningen er overvægtige 6 københavns kommune bruger 110 mio. på henkastet affald årligt 7 vi udleder årligt 450.000 ton co2 på standby strøm 8 55.000 danske unge (18-29) er registreret i RKI løsninger? økonomiske og intuitive antagelser ved hvad han vil gør hvad han vil tænker ud i tiden interventionsstigen UDDANNELSE INFORMATION 13 14 AFGIFTER TILSKUD UDDANNELSE INFORMATION 15 VÆGTAFGIFT EJERAFGIFT REGISTRERINGSAFGIFT AFGIFT AF ANSVARSFORSIKRING AFGIFT AF BENZIN AFGIFT AF VISSE OLIEPRODUKTER AFGIFT AF ELEKTRICITET AFGIFT AF FLASKEGAS AFGIFT AF KUL MV. AFGIFT AF KULDIOXID (CO2) AFGIFT AF SPIRITUS AFGIFT AF VIN AFGIFT AF ØL AFGIFT AF KAFFE AFGIFT AF TE AFGIFT AF MINERALVAND AFGIFT AF CHOKOLADE AFGIFT AF IS AFGIFT AF CIGARETTER AFGIFT AF ANDRE TOBAKSVARER AFGIFT AF GLØDELAMPER AFGIFT AF LYSTFARTØJSFORSIKRING AFGIFT AF VISSE DETAILSALSGSPAKNINGER AFGIFT AF ENGANGSSERVICE PASSAGER AFGIFT AFGIFT AF BEKÆMPELSESMIDLER AFGIFT AF LEDNINGSFØRT VAND AFGIFT AF POSER, PAPIR MV. AFGIFT AF SPILLEKASINOER AFGIFT AF TIPNING, VÆDELØB MV. STEMPELAFGIFT AFGIFT AF NATURGAS AFGIFT AF SVOVL OG SO2 AFGIFT AF AFFALD AFGIFT AF NUMMERPLADER AFGIFT AF FEDT 16 (adfærds) problemer 18 ? 900 828 kalorier 761 kalorier 583 450 67 0 burger salat burger + salat 583 - 30 % 291,5 0 burger + salat Chernev, Alexander and Pierre Chandon (2010), "Calorie Estimation Biases in Consumer Choice," in Leveraging Consumer Psychology for Effective Health Communications (Editors: Rajeev Batra, Punam Keller, Victor Strecher), M.E. Sharpe: Armonk, NY 20 0,6 54% 0,4 32% 0,2 6% 0 Clean Trash Littering 0,8 løsladelser 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 0 3 6 9 BREAK 12 15 18 BREAK 21 antal prøveløsladelser Shai Danzigera, Jonathan Levavb & Liora Avnaim-Pessoa (2011), Extraneous factors in judicial decision making, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 24 dual process theory 34 x 52 = ___ dual process theory system 1 system 2 ubevidst bevidst intuitive vurderinger kritiske vurderinger hurtig informationsbehandling langsom informationsbehandling høj kapacitet lav kapacitet automatisk tænkning intenderet tænkning påvirket af erfaring, følelser og minder påvirket af fakta, logik og beviser kan kontrolleres af system 2 kan aktiveres af system 1 sammenbrud let krævende 28 nye løsninger psykologiske antagelser påvirket af andre begrænset opmærksomhed begrænset viljestyrke valg arkitektur 34 intuitivt design 36 Food'waste'Experiment'2013' Average'food'waste'per'person'in'grams' 25" 20" 15" Plate"size"27CM"(standard)" Plate"size"24"CM" (intreven;on)" 10" 5" 0" Food"waste" 37 normer 39 Socialt 0% -18% -32% active commitment active commitment + norm -8% -16% -24% -32% S. J. Martin, S. Bassi & R. Dunbar-Rees (2011) Commitments, norms and custard creams – a social influence approach to reducing did not attends (DNAs), Journal for the40 Royal Society of Medicine, 201, 101-104 mentale modeller Genbrug, form og facon 0,9 genbrugsprocent 82% 0,6 0,3 18% 0 normal bøjet Remi Trudel & Jennifer J. Argo (2013) The Effect of Product Size and Form DistorKon on Consumer Recycling Behavior. Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 40 frames 0,07 forbedring i percentilpoint 6,8% 258 % 0,035 1,9% 0 gevinst tab Fryer, Levitt, List, Sadoff (2012): ENHANCING THE EFFICACY OF TEACHER INCENTIVES THROUGH LOSS AVERSION::A FIELD EXPERIMENT. NBER Working Paper Series manipulation og frihed 4 træk: 318.979.564.000 10 træk: 169.518.829.100.544.000.000.000.000.00 Alle tænkelige træk: 1.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000. 000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0 00.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000. 000.000.000.000.000.000.000 Fire kombinationer ud af 18 mulige: 3060 muligheder Decision-making and behavioral biases Anchoring – the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Attentional Bias – implicit cognitive bias defined as the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one's environment to preferentially draw and hold attention. Backfire effect - Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them. Bandwagon effect – the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior. Bias blind spot – the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people.[2] Choice-supportive bias – the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.[3] Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.[4] Congruence bias – the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses. Contrast effect – the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object.[5] Denomination effect – the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills). [6] Distinction bias – the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[7] Empathy gap - the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others. Endowment effect – "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it".[8] Experimenter's or Expectation bias – the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.[9] Focusing effect – the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.[10] Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented. Hostile media effect - the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one's own strong partisan views. Hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.[11] Illusion of control – the tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events.[12] Impact bias – the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.[13] Information bias – the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[14] Irrational escalation – the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong. Loss aversion – "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it".[15] (see also Sunk cost effects and Endowment effect). Mere exposure effect – the tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them.[16] Money illusion – the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.[17] Moral credential effect – the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice. 52 type 2 type 1 beslutninger adfærd transparent intransparent åbent skjult transparent intransparent type 2 facilitering af valg manipulation type 1 facilitering af adfærd teknisk manipulation
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