NUDGE
Folkeoplysning eller velment manipulation?
ANDREAS MAALØE JESPERSEN
Ph.D Stud. Roskilde Universitet
mail: [email protected]
web: forskning.ruc.dk/site/person/anmaje
twitter: @Andreasmaaloe
problemer
47 pct. af befolkningen er overvægtige
6
københavns kommune bruger 110 mio. på
henkastet affald årligt
7
vi udleder årligt 450.000 ton co2 på standby strøm
8
55.000 danske unge (18-29) er registreret i RKI
løsninger?
økonomiske og intuitive antagelser
ved hvad han vil
gør hvad han vil
tænker ud i tiden
interventionsstigen
UDDANNELSE
INFORMATION
13
14
AFGIFTER
TILSKUD
UDDANNELSE
INFORMATION
15
VÆGTAFGIFT
EJERAFGIFT
REGISTRERINGSAFGIFT
AFGIFT AF ANSVARSFORSIKRING
AFGIFT AF BENZIN
AFGIFT AF VISSE
OLIEPRODUKTER
AFGIFT AF ELEKTRICITET
AFGIFT AF FLASKEGAS
AFGIFT AF KUL MV.
AFGIFT AF KULDIOXID (CO2)
AFGIFT AF SPIRITUS
AFGIFT AF VIN
AFGIFT AF ØL
AFGIFT AF KAFFE
AFGIFT AF TE
AFGIFT AF MINERALVAND
AFGIFT AF CHOKOLADE
AFGIFT AF IS
AFGIFT AF CIGARETTER
AFGIFT AF ANDRE TOBAKSVARER
AFGIFT AF GLØDELAMPER
AFGIFT AF LYSTFARTØJSFORSIKRING
AFGIFT AF VISSE
DETAILSALSGSPAKNINGER
AFGIFT AF ENGANGSSERVICE
PASSAGER AFGIFT
AFGIFT AF BEKÆMPELSESMIDLER
AFGIFT AF LEDNINGSFØRT VAND
AFGIFT AF POSER, PAPIR MV.
AFGIFT AF SPILLEKASINOER
AFGIFT AF TIPNING, VÆDELØB MV.
STEMPELAFGIFT
AFGIFT AF NATURGAS
AFGIFT AF SVOVL OG SO2
AFGIFT AF AFFALD
AFGIFT AF NUMMERPLADER
AFGIFT AF FEDT
16
(adfærds)
problemer
18
?
900
828
kalorier
761
kalorier
583
450
67
0
burger
salat burger + salat
583
- 30 %
291,5
0
burger + salat
Chernev, Alexander and Pierre Chandon (2010), "Calorie Estimation Biases in Consumer Choice," in Leveraging Consumer Psychology for Effective Health Communications (Editors: Rajeev
Batra, Punam Keller, Victor Strecher), M.E. Sharpe: Armonk, NY
20
0,6
54%
0,4
32%
0,2
6%
0
Clean
Trash
Littering
0,8
løsladelser
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
0
3
6
9
BREAK
12
15
18
BREAK
21
antal prøveløsladelser
Shai Danzigera, Jonathan Levavb & Liora Avnaim-Pessoa (2011), Extraneous factors in judicial decision making, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
24
dual process
theory
34 x 52 = ___
dual process theory
system 1
system 2
ubevidst
bevidst
intuitive vurderinger
kritiske vurderinger
hurtig
informationsbehandling
langsom
informationsbehandling
høj kapacitet
lav kapacitet
automatisk tænkning
intenderet tænkning
påvirket af erfaring,
følelser og minder
påvirket af fakta, logik
og beviser
kan kontrolleres af
system 2
kan aktiveres af system 1
sammenbrud
let
krævende
28
nye
løsninger
psykologiske antagelser
påvirket af andre
begrænset opmærksomhed
begrænset viljestyrke
valg
arkitektur
34
intuitivt design
36
Food'waste'Experiment'2013'
Average'food'waste'per'person'in'grams'
25"
20"
15"
Plate"size"27CM"(standard)"
Plate"size"24"CM"
(intreven;on)"
10"
5"
0"
Food"waste"
37
normer
39
Socialt
0%
-18%
-32%
active commitment
active commitment + norm
-8%
-16%
-24%
-32%
S. J. Martin, S. Bassi & R. Dunbar-Rees (2011) Commitments, norms and custard creams – a social influence approach to reducing did not attends (DNAs), Journal for the40
Royal
Society of Medicine, 201, 101-104
mentale modeller
Genbrug, form og facon
0,9
genbrugsprocent
82%
0,6
0,3
18%
0
normal
bøjet
Remi Trudel & Jennifer J. Argo (2013) The Eﬀect of Product Size and Form DistorKon on Consumer Recycling Behavior. Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 40
frames
0,07
forbedring i percentilpoint
6,8%
258 %
0,035
1,9%
0
gevinst
tab
Fryer, Levitt, List, Sadoff (2012): ENHANCING THE EFFICACY OF TEACHER INCENTIVES THROUGH LOSS AVERSION::A FIELD
EXPERIMENT. NBER Working Paper Series
manipulation
og frihed
4 træk: 318.979.564.000
10 træk: 169.518.829.100.544.000.000.000.000.00
Alle tænkelige træk:
1.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.
000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0
00.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.
000.000.000.000.000.000.000
Fire kombinationer ud af 18 mulige:
3060 muligheder
Decision-making and behavioral biases
Anchoring – the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
Attentional Bias – implicit cognitive bias defined as the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one's environment to preferentially draw and
hold attention.
Backfire effect - Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them.
Bandwagon effect – the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd
behavior.
Bias blind spot – the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people.[2]
Choice-supportive bias – the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.[3]
Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.[4]
Congruence bias – the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses.
Contrast effect – the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object.[5]
Denomination effect – the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).
[6]
Distinction bias – the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[7]
Empathy gap - the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.
Endowment effect – "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it".[8]
Experimenter's or Expectation bias – the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the
outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those
expectations.[9]
Focusing effect – the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future
outcome.[10]
Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented.
Hostile media effect - the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one's own strong partisan views.
Hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the
tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.[11]
Illusion of control – the tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events.[12]
Impact bias – the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.[13]
Information bias – the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[14]
Irrational escalation – the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite
new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong.
Loss aversion – "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it".[15] (see also Sunk cost
effects and Endowment effect).
Mere exposure effect – the tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them.[16]
Money illusion – the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.[17]
Moral credential effect – the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice.
52
type 2
type 1
beslutninger
adfærd
transparent intransparent
åbent
skjult
transparent intransparent
type 2
facilitering
af valg
manipulation
type 1
facilitering
af adfærd
teknisk
manipulation