NATION Hindustan Times, New Delhi, Tuesday, December 30, 2008 INDIA’S Military Options THE COMMANDO RAID 2 Special Forces units cross LoC, attack a Lashkar site and return. Possibly helicopter borne. OPERATION A successful commando raid into PoK would humiliate Pakistan’s army. Kanwal says targets should be 5-8 kms from the LoC, in forested border areas like Poonch and Rajouri, and should have a 80-90 % chance of success. W ar between nuclear weapon states is out of the question. But India has options below the N-threshold. Limited actions would seek to warn Lashkar-e-Tayyeba or the Pakistani military that events like 26/11 will be allowed to pass without a price. But targeting is crucial. Says Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, “The aim should be to punish the perpetrators: the military or Lashkar.” Attacks should be across the LoC. India won’t be crossing a real boundary and, anyway, PoK is actually Indian territory. Diplomacy must also run its course. “We must give the international community a chance,” says Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak of the Centre for Air Power Studies. “If the world fails, only then should India act.” Limited operations are designed for immediate results, says Kanwal. 1 Squadrons of Mirage, Jaguar or Sukhoi fighters fire missiles at Lashkar-related targets in PoK. OPERATION Lashkar doesn’t have fixed camps. But forward bases and bridges used by terrorists could be attacked. FALLOUT Retaliation by Pakistani air force likely, but it would be limited. “If there is anything that frightens Pakistan, it’s the Indian Air Force,” says Kak. But India would have to refrain from a second round to preserve its standing as a responsible power. Islamabad would get a strong message – but India will take mediumterm political and military damage. CHINA A FG H A N I S TA N NWFP PoK LoC Islamabad FATA Kargil Srinagar WEST PUNJAB Jammu Lahore Amritsar JAMMU AND KASHMIR PUNJAB Quetta IRAN Rahimyar Khan BALUCHISTAN Jaisalmer Arabian Sea FALLOUT Such raids have a casualty risk. India may be blamed for civilian deaths and commandos could be captured. Helicopters are sitting ducks if detected. THE SURGICAL STRIKE Karachi Ferozepur Multan Bikaner SIND GUJARAT Text: PRAMIT PAL CHAUDHURI AND RAHUL SINGH Graphic: VINEY / ABHMANYU IN AND OUT 5 One or two armoured corps make RING OF SHIPS OPERATION Blockades are war. But, says Vice Admiral Premvir Das, India could impose “contraband control” of supplies to Lashkar. “Supplies like wheat or diesel can be listed as aids to Lashkar. India could stop ships going to Karachi with such cargoes.” Warships would be parked 100 miles off Karachi. A few interceptions would scare off most merchant vessels. FALLOUT Cripple Pakistan’s economy, but not Lashkar. US supplies to Afghan troops go this way, so some understanding with Washington needed. MOBILISATION THREAT 4 India mobilizes its land, sea and air short incursion into Pak territory. forces across the western front. OPERATION India would use Cold Start doctrine and launch a small conventional attack below the nuke threshold. 10th or 11th Corps in Punjab could mobilise in weeks, too fast for Pakistan to get its army moving. OPERATION The 2002 mobilisation cost Pakistan some $ 1.5 billion. Their economy is weaker today. But Indian economy isn’t too hot either. Pakistan would denude its Afghan border of troops. FALLOUT Would alarm world community no end. Pakistan would roll out nukes, UN would yell at India for breaching an international boundary. Civilian casualties likely. The humiliation for Pakistani would be extreme but India’s image badly battered. If there is anything that frightens Pakistan, it’s the Indian Air Force, AIR VICE MARSHAL KAPIL KAK Retired Cards for fishermen Nandini R Iyer New Delhi, December 29 EMPHASISING THE need for fishermen to have clear proof of identification, the home ministry has told nine coastal states and four union territories that it will issue the necessary identity cards provided states can get the requisite forms filled. At a high-level meeting today it was decided that since states have different identity papers, the Registrar General of India (RGI) will design a model identification system to be followed by the coastal states. States have been informed to file data relating to fishermen and boats to the RGI at the earliest. “The Centre, however, will not permanently do this. This is just being done to facilitate security provisions,” a senior official said. The Coast Guard had earlier pointed out that fishing boats travelled in and out of international waters were often seized by Pakistani authorities. [email protected] Anger is a gift MOST OF us accept the principle of physical nonviolence. But we can go a step further to adopt nonviolence of speech, refrain from speaking harsh and abusive words. When we get angry, it seems wise to stay silent for a while. If we find it difficult to control ourselves, we can leave the situation for some time. It is not necessary to be rude to rise in the world. We can be polite but firm when required. Assertiveness is desirable, anger is not. We encounter rude people in buses, offices and marketplaces and are tempted to retaliate. When angry, we may speak harsh words to our spouses that are intended to hurt. Later we regret our words but the damage is done. When an unpleasant argument develops with a family member, we can stay silent. The other person will speak for a while and then fall silent too. As adolescents we may be rude to our parents, but later on we realize we were ungrateful. If our harsh words do not THE ARTILLERY BARRAGE 3 Long-range artillery fires at militant forward bases across the LoC. 6 Indian Navy blockades Karachi Pankaj Kumar RAJASTHAN originate from anger, there seems to be no harm. Parents sometimes scold their children out of concern. Children could pick up abusive words from their friends and if they are not checked, such words could become a habit. Buddhist texts have a story on this subject. A man once abused the Buddha who remained silent. He later explained that a gift that was not accepted would be the property of the giver. Somebody sent an abusive letter to Gandhiji. Gandhiji took out the pin and threw away the letter. He said he kept only that which was useful. Swami Sivananda said, “Have a strong determination: ‘I will not speak any harsh word to anybody from today.’ You may fail a hundred times. But if you slowly gain strength from the hundred and first time, you have already achieved your end.” Kabir said, “There is no greater evil than a bad word; it burns everything to ashes. A kind word on the contrary is like rain that falls in nectar-like torrents.” INNER VOICE [email protected] FALLOUT India and US are politically weaker today than in 2002, so Pakistan unlikely to be coerced. Taliban would run riot. India’s ally, Hamid Karzai, would be the worst affected. Indian brass unhappy with 2002 experience. “There should be no repetition of this moving troops from east to west, “ believes Kak. OPERATION Bofors and Russian 130 mm guns have 30 km range. Given the guns would be fired from about 5 kms inside India, to be precise the targets would have to be a maximum of 8 to 10 kms inside PoK. They do exist. “Some bases are actually visible from the Indian border,” notes Kanwal. FALLOUT Cross-border artillery duels may resume. No real military impact. Islamabad could use shelling to whip up fears in rest of the world. We should consciously avoid civilians in any attack on Pakistan. That’s not our war. BRIGADIER GURMEET KANWAL Retired 11 Thrifty Modi govt spoils job scheme Poor wages of Rs 50 per day have triggered an exodus of workers to the private sector Aurangzeb Naqshbandi New Delhi, December 29 THE GUJARAT government has always claimed that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) — the UPA government’s flagship job scheme — did not have many takers in the state. But a panel headed by a BJP leader has found that it’s not the scheme but the poor wages that have kept workers away. A parliamentary standing committee on rural development headed by senior BJP leader Kalyan Singh has discovered that the Gujarat government pays the least wage anywhere in India under the scheme. The wage in Gujarat is Rs 50 per day, while Kerala pays the maximum rate of Rs 125 per day. “While some states have revised the wages, it is a matter of concern that Gujarat has so far not done that,” the committee report said. The committee felt that low wages might be the reason for labourers preferring to work in private companies where wages are much higher. “Perhaps this may be A PARLIAMENTARY panel headed by BJP leader Kalyan Singh has said that the Modi government pays the least wage anywhere in India under the rural job plan KERALA PAYS the highest at Rs 125 per day under the scheme. “The low wages may be the reason for labourers preferring to work in private companies”, the panel said the main reason for the difference between the job cards issued and the employment provided,” it said. During 2007-08, the rural development ministry issued 5.98 crore job cards across the country. Out of these, employment was demanded by only 2.61 crore households and provided to 2.57 crore households. During its study the panel found large-scale disparity in wages paid across the country. The panel reiterated that the Union Rural Development Ministry should ask state governments to enhance and bring parity to the wages offered. [email protected] BSP leaders continue to court trouble HT Correspondents New Delhi/Agra, December 29 THE ALLEGED ‘fund collection’ and extortion by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) cadres for UP Chief Minister Mayawati’s birthday celebrations is gathering steam with more cases being reported against BSP leaders. The BSP office bearer of Mainpuri unit has been accused of beating up a UP State Road Transport Corporation employee for failing to pay up extortion money. BSP leader and Mathura unit president Pratap Singh and MLA Nasiruddin have been allegedly involved in a string of criminal cases — from murder to kidnapping. Most of the allegations have come in the light of engineer MK Gupta’s brutal murder allegedly by BSP legislator Shekhar Tiwari. Opposition parties including the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) are marshaling MAYA’S FLOCK ■ A BSP office bearer has been accused of beating up a transport corporation employee for failing to pay up money ■ BSP leaders allegedly involved in a string of other criminal cases ■ Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has submitted a memorandum to the President demanding Mayawati’s dismissal their resources for a joint campaign on the issue. Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) President and Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has submitted a memorandum to President Pratibha Patil demanding the dismissal of the Mayawati government. In the memorandum Paswan has alleged that three BSP workers gunned down LJP leader Manish Yadav on December 26 for his failure to cough up Rs 2 lakh for Mayawati’s birthday.