1. society
2. work
3. unemployment

Global Views
November 7, 2014
Weekly commentary on economic and financial market developments
Economics
Corporate Bond Research
Emerging Markets Strategy
Fixed Income Research
Fixed Income Strategy
Foreign Exchange Strategy
Portfolio Strategy
Contact Us
Economics

Pivotal Global Macro Debates To Be Advanced
Forecasts & Data
2-4
Derek Holt

The U.S. Is Sheltered From The Storm
5-6
The Fed And Treasury Have Indeed Coordinated Policies
BoC’s Inflation Guidance Supports A Longer Pause Than Consensus
India — Economic Outlook 2014-16
A3-A5
A6
A7-A8
Global Central Bank Watch
A9
Forecasts
9
A10
Latest Economic Statistics
Derek Holt

Key Indicators
Events Calendar
7-8
Derek Holt

A1-A2
Global Auctions Calendar
Frances Donald

Key Data Preview
A11-A12
Latest Financial Statistics
10
A13
Tuuli McCully

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Faces Continued Turbulence
This Week’s Featured Chart
11
Is European Growth Bottoming?
Neil Tisdall
3
Fixed Income Strategy

Implications Of EU Commission Forecast
12-15
Frédéric Prêtet
Latin America Week Ahead: For The Week Of November 10 - 14
Eduardo Suárez
forecast
2
Germany
1
Foreign Exchange Strategy

real GDP, y/y % change
16-17
France
0
Italy
-1
-2
-3
12
13
14
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg.
Global Views is available on scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOT and Reuters at SM1C
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
THE WEEK AHEAD
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
Pivotal Global Macro Debates To Be Advanced

Please see our full indicator, central bank, auction and event calendars on pp. A3-A9.
US — Will Consumers Spend Their ‘Gas Tax’ Cut?
US markets should pose little risk to the global market tone
Chart 1
next week, particularly after the past two, although Fed-speak
6.5
is a risk particularly toward the end of the week. Data risk surfaces
at the end of the week; Fed-speak post-nonfarm payrolls will be
6
scattered throughout the week; and the earnings season winds down
with a gem or two on the docket.
Note that US bond markets are closed Tuesday for Veterans’ Day
while equity markets are open for trading. Equity markets used to
observe the holiday but stopped doing so in 1954. US bond markets
are shut because the US Treasury, the whole US government, and the
Federal Reserve’s institutional credit transfer system are closed.
Consumers Getting An Energy
'Tax Cut'
% of total
Energy Expenditures
(% of All Expenditures)
5.5
5
Energy Expenditures
(% of Income)
4.5
So far, the theory that lower gas prices will incite faster growth in
4
consumer spending is lacking substantive evidence. Much of the
01/10
03/11
05/12
07/13
09/14
focus next week will be upon signs that this is starting to occur into the
Source: Scotiabank Economics, BEA.
critically important holiday shopping season with retail sales for
October due out on Friday. Recall that the dollar value of retail sales fell in September and all of this and then
some was driven by lower sales volumes that flow through to GDP. The drop in the dollar value of sales was
broadly based as even sales ex-gasoline fell 0.3% m/m. In broader terms, total consumer spending beyond
retail sales that under-represent services also fell 0.2% m/m in September in both dollar value and volume
terms. With gasoline prices at their lowest in about four years, most of the freed-up funds (chart 1) have been
hoarded as the personal saving rate increased in September and sits at its highest since the temporary spike
higher in December 2012 when people saved advanced dividend cheques as companies sought to jump the gun
on personal tax hikes in the new year.
A number of third-tier releases are also clustered toward the end of the week. Lower gasoline prices will
probably continue to be among the factors propping up the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey
with October’s figures also due out on Friday. Consumer confidence is currently at its highest since July
2007. The fact that the JOLTS job vacancy metric (Thursday) lies at its highest since 2001 is also highly
supportive of confidence by way of signaling sustained hiring appetite. US mortgage delinquencies are
already at their lowest since 2008Q1 but next week’s third quarter update may hit the lowest reading
since the end of 2007 and thus keep unwinding delinquencies toward pre-crisis rates.
Seven Federal Reserve officials speak next week and several of them will address the economy and/or
monetary policy. Chair Yellen delivers welcoming remarks at a joint Federal Reserve and ECB event on
Thursday, and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer moderates a panel that same day including audience Q&A. Governor
Powell will be on that same panel. Four regional Presidents also speak, and two of them vote this year (Plosser
and Kocherlakota) but none of them do so next year including the other two speakers during the week (Bullard,
Rosengren). The US Treasury auctions 3s, 10s, and 30s next week.
Earnings season winds down with only 15 firms on the S&P500 set to release next week. Some are still worth
watching, such as Wal-Mart.
Canada — The ‘Temporary’ Manufacturing Recovery Continues
While the US moves on to other things, Canada remains in the thick of its lagging earnings season. Fifty-four
TSX companies will report next week including names like RONA, Loblaw, Silver Wheaton, CAE, Encana,
Cineplex, Manulife, and Power Corp. Like the US, equity markets are open but bond markets will not be.
2
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
THE WEEK AHEAD
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
Data risk will book-end the week with housing starts for October on
Chart 2
Can We Still Call This Temporary?
Monday and manufacturing shipments for September due on Friday.
12
Expect a powerful surge in manufacturing shipments. We already
q/q % change, SAAR
know that exports climbed by 1.1% m/m in September, and this was led 10
by big advances in autos, consumer goods, forestry, and metal
8
products. Further, recall that manufacturing sales plunged 3.3% m/m in
Canadian
6
Manufacturing
August so a solid rebound off of a weak base effect lies in the cards. In
Shipment Volumes
fact, apart from the volatility, this year has been marked by
4
exceptional strength in the manufacturing sector and in ways that
2
have exceeded most people’s expectations including the Bank of
0
Canada’s concerns about export competitiveness. As chart 2
shows, manufacturing shipment volumes plunged by almost 4% in Q1 at -2
a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate but then soared by 10% in
-4
Q2. That was dismissed as temporary, only to witness a 6.8%
-6
expansion in Q3 assuming a flat September when in fact we’re fairly
Q1 13
Q3 13
Q1 14
Q3 14
confident that the September print will add to the quarterly gain. Note
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics
that all that has been achieved since manufacturing bottomed in
Canada.
2009Q2 is to recover the lost sales that were incurred during the crisis
period. It’s not necessarily the case that we can’t continue to witness further growth after having simply
recovered lost output.
On Wednesday, Federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver will release the Fall Fiscal Update which often
amounts to an annual mini-budget of possible relevance to markets. The risk to this one is in terms of upsides to
earlier revenue projections that could raise estimates of cumulative projected surpluses with a sizeable portion
already committed to the recent income-splitting announcement that will cost an estimated C$27 billion over a
six year projection horizon. The exact projected surpluses and potential further initiatives will be closely watched
and Scotia’s Mary Webb will be on it that day.
Two Bank of Canada speakers take to the podium including Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri
(Wednesday) and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins (Thursday). In keeping with the BoC’s practice not to
disclose speech topics until three days prior, we cannot as yet provide guidance on potential content or risks.
Canada will auction 30s on Wednesday.
Europe — Recession Watch
We don’t think Europe (minus Italy) is going back into recession
at least by way of a sustained contraction. Markets, however,
remain unconvinced. Next week’s Q3 GDP prints for a number of
Eurozone economies will help to settle the matter at least temporarily.
After contracting by 0.2% in Q2 (chart 3), Germany’s economy is
expected to expand marginally by 0.3% q/q at a seasonally adjusted
and annualized rate in Q3 and then a further 0.3% in Q4 according to
Bloomberg’s last survey of economists in mid-October. Italy remains
mired in recession, however, as the 0.2% contraction in Q2 was the
twelfth in a row and the median forecaster thinks the economy was
flat in Q3 while five shops foresee another contraction. After a flat Q2,
France’s economy is not facing immediate recession risk particularly
since the last mid-October Bloomberg consensus expected growth of
0.2% in Q3. Across the board, the best that one can say is that the
core Eurozone economies are enmeshed in very soft growth
conditions.
Chart 3
Meeting Low Expectations
8
q/q GDP growth, % SAAR
6
4
2
Germany
France
Italy
0
-2
-4
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg.
3
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
THE WEEK AHEAD
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
Gilts and pound sterling will also be focused upon the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report on
Wednesday, and the same day’s unemployment rate for September to a lesser extent. Expect a somewhat more
dovish tone with downward revisions to at least near-term inflation projections. Since the last inflation report on
August 13th, CPI inflation slid to 1.2% in September compared to the August BoE forecast for inflation in 2014Q4
to equal 1.9%Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe summed it up nicely on October 28th: “The softening in pay and
inflation data, together with the weaker external environment, for me implies that we can afford to maintain the
current degree of monetary stimulus for a longer period than previously thought.”
Also keep an eye out for the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters on Thursday, and the ECB’s
announcement of covered bond purchases on Monday. French CPI and Eurozone industrial production updates
will round out the hits.
Asia — Has Chinese Inflation Bottomed?
Much of the week’s focus will be on China from the
standpoint of global markets. A wave of macro updates hit the
tapes over the course of the week. Trade figures into the
weekend are expected to shake off some of the over-invoicing of
faked export receipts that have recently driven an acceleration in
reported export figures. Some of this activity likely persists as a
way of capitalizing upon a depreciating yuan since May/June
through over-reporting trade receivables and hence trade
financing that often uses such receivables as collateral.
Chinese CPI inflation fell to 1.6% y/y in September and
consensus thinks October’s print will carve out a near-term
bottom at an unchanged rate. A downside risk lies in the fact that
some prices continue to fall sharply (chart 4). Aggregate company
financing figures will be released at some point during the week
and have been on a softer-than-usual trend over recent months
for this time of year. Retail sales and industrial production will also
be released.
After cutting by a half percentage point since July, the Bank of
Korea is expected to leave its official bank rate unchanged at
2% which is the lowest level since the crisis when it also hit 2%.
All but two forecasters out of 21 in an October 22nd Bloomberg
poll think that the policy rate has bottomed. Since then, however,
the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased its bond buying
program from the ¥60-70 trillion range to the ¥80 trillion range on
October 31st. The risk is that of a tit-for-tat policy move by the
Bank of Korea in light of the won’s nearly 4% appreciation versus
the yen since then (chart 5).
Chart 4
Chinese CPI Will Be Hit By Falling
Food And House Prices
14
CNY/kg
%, y/y
28
26
12
Pork Spot
Price (RHS)
10
24
8
22
6
20
4
18
2
House Prices
(LHS)
0
CPI YoY
(LHS)
16
14
12
-2
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg.
Chart 5
Won's Appreciation Versus The Yen
During Abenomics
11
KRWJPY
10
9
8
More minor releases will include Japanese and Indian trade,
industrial output from India and Malaysia, and CPI from India. The
7
latter has fallen precipitously from a recent peak of 11.2% y/y a
year ago to 6.5% in September. Bank Indonesia also issues a
rate decision and has kept its policy rate unchanged for the past two
6
10
11
12
13
14
years. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will issue its Financial
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg.
Stability Report on Tuesday, in the context of Governor Wheeler’s
dovish rate statement on October 30th that removed the line “we expect some further policy tightening will be
necessary” and that led to a weaker NZ$ as markets pushed out timing for projected RBNZ rate hikes.
4
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
US MACRO OUTLOOK
Frances Donald (416) 862-3080
[email protected]
The U.S. Is Sheltered From The Storm

With weak trade linkages and strong domestic demand, the U.S. is well insulated from
declining global growth.
Global PMI data released this week underscored that both
Chart 1 China and Europe are far more
reliant on trade
European and Chinese growth is decelerating. Should the U.S.
35%
be concerned or is the economy well insulated from deteriorating
Exports as % of GDP
global growth? Limited trade links and strong domestic demand
30%
should shelter the United States. There are, however, risks of short25%
term market volatility created by uncertainty in both Europe and
China. Ultimately, the better question is not what slowing Europe and
20%
China mean for the U.S. but what stronger U.S. growth means for the
15%
rest of the world.
The trade channel
10%
5%
There is a very critical difference between economic shocks that
originate in the United States and those that originate in Europe or
0%
China
Europe
United States
China. That’s because contagion linkages are not symmetric,
particularly with respect to trade relationships. In the United States,
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg
exports account for only 8% of GDP, of which exports to Europe
Chart 2 U.S. consumer confidence isn't tied
account for 1.3% of GDP and exports to China only 0.6% of
to Eurozone growth...
GDP (chart 1). The fear that U.S. growth can be meaningfully pulled
%, YoY 10
180
Index
down via the trade channel is therefore misplaced: even a 10% fall off
EU industrial
8
in exports to Europe and China would drag GDP by only 0.19
160
production
(RHS)
percentage points. This is in contrast to China and Europe where
6
140
exports make up a sizeable segment of the economy. In China,
4
exports account for 25-30% of GDP. In Europe, exports make up 27%
2
of the economy and exports to China and the United States are worth 120
US
consumer
4% of GDP each. It’s for this reason that we have historically seen
0
100
confidence
high correlations between U.S. growth and European growth: as
(LHS)
-2
shocks originate in the U.S., they are more easily transmitted to
80
-4
Europe than the reverse.
60
Could a stronger USD caused by U.S. outperformance (and Federal
Reserve policy) meaningfully hamper total exports and derail growth?
That’s also unlikely. As we wrote here, these fears are also probably
misplaced. Primarily, the real effective exchange rate is little
Chart 3
changed and up only 8% since it bottomed in 2011.
Domestic confidence
In lieu of trade, the U.S. economy is primarily driven by domestic
demand, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the economy. In
theory, if waning global growth derailed domestic sentiment, it could
hamper U.S. growth regardless of trade activity. Yet, there is currently
no indication of a concerned U.S. consumer: consumer confidence
continues to climb to multi-year highs, despite the fall-off in Eurozone
growth and disappointing Chinese data (chart 2).
Forward looking indicators of business confidence are also positive
despite global growth slowdowns, suggesting that the fixed investment
component of growth worth 15-16% of GDP is also solid. CEO
-6
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg
...neither is company confidence
140
130
120
Index
U.S. small bus
capex plans
(LHS)
EU industrial
production
(RHS)
10
%, YoY
8
6
4
110
100
2
0
U.S. CEO
Confidence
(LHS)
-2
90
-4
80
-6
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg
5
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
US MACRO OUTLOOK
Frances Donald (416) 862-3080
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
confidence in the economy one year from now is accelerating, as is the NFIB’s measure of small business capital
expenditure plans (chart 3). Confidence surveys are not the best measure of future economic growth and we are
not using them as a key pillar of a domestic growth story. Rather, they are helpful at illustrating that domestic
sentiment is not wavering despite global growth declines and thus cannot be used as an argument for contagion.
Other domestic considerations include the positive spillover effects of weaker global growth such as lower oil
prices which benefit the consumer and import substitution effects which can bolster domestic production.
Financial linkages
Rather than via an economic shock, the more likely source of
contagion from weaker global growth is via financial linkages, though
we expect these are less severe than they have been previously. At
the height of the global financial crisis, and then again in 2011 as euro
growth double-dipped, European banks accelerated deleveraging and
shed U.S. assets (chart 4). As a result, cross-border USDdenominated assets held by eurozone banks fell a sizeable 30% from
5 trillion USD to 3.5 trillion USD before stabilizing, though there may
also be a currency effect present. The risk is that weaker European
growth spurs further declines which would pressure the U.S. financial
system, but our sense is that those assets that could be reasonably
shed have already been sold, and banks are now focusing on
domestic activities.
Chart 4
Euro banks have already delevered
US assets
5.5
USD, trillions
5
4.5
4
Euro bank
claims on US
assets
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
The bigger danger is that economic data in Europe continues to
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg
disappoint, pulling down European financial market sentiment which in
Chart 5
turn bleeds into U.S. markets. Historically, there has been a strong
correlation between European and U.S. equity markets as economic
Economic data is surprising
data has tended to surprise positively (or disappoint) in both countries
positively in the U.S.; not in EU
150
equally, with a slight lag as the European economy more slowly
Index
US Surprise Index
absorbs weaker U.S. growth (see chart). Recently, however, the
economic data has disappointed in Europe while surprising positively 100
in the U.S. This has corresponded with U.S. equity outperformance
50
and signaled a decoupling of economic data between the two
economies. In general, we should expect some volatility around poor
0
Euro-related news, but over the medium-term, the recognition that
poor European growth does not translate to weaker U.S. economic
-50
data should dominate.
EU Surprise Index
In terms of general capital market risk aversion, Chinese financial
-100
instability is somewhat more of a concern for capital markets. This is not
because of its direct impact on the U.S. economy — indeed, Chinese
-150
10
11
12
14
financial markets are mostly a closed system — but because of the
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg.
uncertainty surrounding financial stress in China. The opacity of China’s
shadow banking system and monetary policy objectives, combined with the lack of any precedent for Chinese
financial crisis, implies there is a long list of unknowns that could weigh on global risk sentiment.
A better question
We’ve emphasized here that U.S. growth dynamics flow more freely to the rest of the world than the reverse.
Perhaps instead of asking whether slowing global growth will hold back the U.S., a more forward-looking
question is whether U.S. demand can buoy European and Chinese trade, confidence and financial systems,
and ultimately improve upon global risk sentiment.
6
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
US BOND MARKETS
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
The Fed And Treasury Have Indeed Coordinated Policies

A combination of ZIRP and QE provided zero-cost funding of short-debt and scarcity of
tradeable longer-term debt. The result has been financial repression.
Two policy-induced forces go a considerable way toward explaining
Chart 1 Treasury Holdings - 0-3 yrs
4.5
what has happened to the Treasury yield curve over recent years. The
USD Trillions
4.0
combined effect is compatible with financial repression arguments that
reference experiences following other periods in global history that have 3.5
been marked by the popping of credit bubbles. The effects of these
Others
3.0
policies are likely to only change moderately going forward through a
2.5
gradual forecast pace of fed funds target rate hikes and the end to
2.0
Treasury buying that will continue to leave behind scarcity of tradeable
product for some time — pending projections for longer-run issuance
1.5
related to Social Security obligations that pose future risks absent QE.
1.0
Federal Reserve
0.5
By contrast to the Brookings/Summers assertion (here) that the Federal
0.0
Reserve and Treasury have been uncoordinated in their policy actions
05/07
03/09
01/11
11/12
09/14
and should be more so, I believe they have been rather coordinated
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Scotiabank Fixed
Income Research, Federal Reserve Board, Dept.
indeed but leave open the question of whether this has been by accident
of Treasury.
or design or parts of both. I think that Treasury deliberately concentrated
its issuance at the shorter end — the point on the curve where the Fed Chart 2
The Federal Reserve
can control the borrowing costs more effectively — and counted upon
Has Created Scarcity
6
the Fed to take enough longer-term product off the market so as to
USD Trillions
induce relative scarcity and thus flatten the Treasury curve from 5s
5
Total Treasury Securities
through 10s, and 10s through 30s over recent years. This effect
Outstanding >3 Years
dominates other theories about the level and shape of the curve such as
4
buying by pensions and life insurers that lack support in the hard data.
This policy-induced relative scarcity has served as a counter-weight to
other arguments about constrained demand such as shrinking dealer
appetite given regulatory changes (Dodd-Frank, Volcker, etc.). It is how
monetary policy and debt management strategies combined forces to
enable this tightening of regulatory policies.
Treasury Shipped It In At ZIRP...
3
2
Treasury Securities
Outstanding >3 Years Not
Held By The Federal Reserve
1
05/07
03/09
01/11
11/12
09/14
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Scotiabank Fixed
Income Research, Federal Reserve Board, Dept.
of Treasury.
Note: Excludes New 3-yr Issues.
The only area of the curve where there has been a steady and material
post-crisis increase in tradeable supply on the open market excluding
Chart 3
Treasury Holdings - 3-5 yrs
holdings by the Federal Reserve has been at the front-end from bills up
1.6
to 3 year Treasuries (chart 1, red line). The Treasury didn’t have to
USD Trillions
1.4
worry about the effects of this marked increase on prices/yields at the
front end partly because of the Fed’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) that 1.2
has focused upon where conventional monetary policy typically has its
Others
1.0
greatest effect. Through arbitrage at the open window, the Fed has
0.8
anchored the front-end at historically low rates.
In addition to Treasury’s issuance bias, because of ‘Operation Twist’, 03 year maturities held by ‘others’ climbed while the Fed was selling its
shorter-dated securities into the market in order to buy further up the
curve in an overall sterilized program not funded by expansion of the
money supply. The effect on the shorter end of the Fed’s holdings
ended long ago, but the run-off of maturing longer-dated securities from
Operation Twist on its own likely begins in earnest around 2016H1 when
that part of the SOMA portfolio begins to shrink.
0.6
0.4
0.2
Federal Reserve
0.0
05/07
03/09
01/11
11/12
09/14
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Scotiabank Fixed
Income Research, Federal Reserve Board, Dept.
of Treasury.
Note: Excludes New 3-yr Issues
7
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
US BOND MARKETS
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
...And The Fed Created Scarcity In Longer Maturities
Beyond 3s, what is available for trading on the open market has
been flat in aggregate for years (chart 2). This has contributed
toward longer-end flatteners and depressed yields. It is with
amazement that despite massive net issuance of marketable debt
through the crisis period and the fact that the Fed did not buy new
issues, the amount of tradeable Treasury securities longer than 3
years has not materially budged for years.
Charts 3-6 graphically depict the impact of Federal Reserve
buying on the stock of tradeable Treasuries held by other buyers
by maturity range. In each case, the Fed’s holdings climbed, and
holdings by ‘others’ were therefore either flat or shrank markedly
and thus created relative scarcity of tradeable product which
pushed prices (or yields) higher (or lower). This is especially true
in the 10-20 year segment of the curve. From 20+ years, the Fed’s
holdings climbed while the holdings of ‘others’ were flat with only a
recent and slight upward bias.
No Domestic Buyers Stepped Up Purchases
Chart 4
1.6
Treasury Holdings - 5-10 yrs
USD Trillions
1.4
1.2
Others
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Federal Reserve
0.2
0.0
05/07
03/09
01/11
11/12
09/14
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Scotiabank Fixed
Income Research, Federal Reserve Board, Dept.
of Treasury.
Note: Excludes New 5-yr Issues
Chart 5
0.30
Treasury Holdings - 10-20 yrs
USD Trillions
0.25
By contrast, chart 7 shows that there is little support for theories
that suggest that buying of Treasuries has been driven by
domestic institutional investor classes such as pensions or life
insurers. Pretty much all of the buying of Treasury securities up to
Q2 (Q3 data lands on December 11th) has been by the Federal
Reserve and foreign investors, including during the yield curve
rally this year. Indeed, broken down by country, the largest
increases in foreign buying of US Treasuries have come from
Belgium (likely reflecting offshore booking of purchases by other
countries like China and Russia), Japan, and oil-exporting nations
(go here for all Treasury securities, and here for longer-term
Treasury securities).
Chart 7
0.20
0.15
Others
0.10
0.05
Federal Reserve
0.00
05/07
03/09
01/11
11/12
09/14
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Scotiabank Fixed
Income Research, Federal Reserve Board, Dept.
of Treasury.
Note: Excludes New 10-yr Issues
Chart 6
0.7
Treasury Holdings - 20+ yrs
USD Trillions
0.6
Others
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Federal Reserve
0.0
05/07
03/09
01/11
11/12
09/1
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Scotiabank Fixed
Income Research, Federal Reserve Board, Dept.
of Treasury.
Note: Excludes New 20-yr Issues
Thank you to Roger Quick, Director of Fixed Income Research for his assistance with the data in this report.
8
Economics
November 7, 2014
Global Views
CANADIAN MONETARY POLICY
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
BoC’s Inflation Guidance Supports A Longer Pause Than Consensus

A first hike is forecast for 2016, and the Canada curve could outperform the US in 2015.
The Bank of Canada’s operating bias appears to lean toward an asymmetric take on hitting its inflation target
range of 1-3% with a 2% mid-point. It is balanced in assessing risks to its inflation forecasts, but it is more
concerned about being wrong to the downside than the upside. As a consequence, we think that the BoC
would be comfortable with a fairly prolonged possible period of inflation running at or above target, and we
accordingly lag the rest of consensus on the timing of our interest rate forecasts. Scotiabank Economics
forecasts the first BoC hike to occur in 2016Q1 compared to consensus expectations (Bloomberg) for the
first hike to occur by 2015Q3. As such, we lean more in the direction of current market pricing that foresees
the Bank of Canada’s policy rate unchanged at 1% throughout all of 2015 at a minimum. This stands in
contrast to our forecast assumption for the Federal Reserve where we anticipate hikes to commence by
2015Q2 — ahead of both consensus and market pricing.
While BoC communications state that it views balanced risks to the inflation outlook, comments like those
from Governor Poloz and his Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins suggest greater unease over getting
the inflation outlook wrong to the downside rather than the upside. Recall that in her September 22nd speech,
Wilkins observed that inflation downsides “could be harder to deal with” but “central banks have considerable
experience dealing with inflation that is above target and can act quickly to rein it in.”
This assertion isn’t clear. Observe that when the Bank of Canada fell behind inflationary pressures in past
cycles — unless we’re talking seriously about Great Depression V2 risks that I don’t buy — the result was a
need to sharply tighten monetary policy for prolonged periods under Governors Gerald Bouey (1973-1987)
and John Crow (1987-1994). The consequences contributed toward painful recessions and prolonged
aftermath including the better part of a lost decade for housing markets and the consumer in the 1990s.
Today may well be different. One reason is that markets generally believe the 2% inflation target it adopted a
couple of decades ago. But, a second reason relates to the challenges posed by operating toward the lower zero
bound with the BoC’s overnight rate set at 1% and the limits to applying unconventional monetary policy in
Canada where unsterilized asset purchases were never pursued during the
crisis. Thus, while there are many options the BoC could deploy should
inflation materially disappoint to the downside, they may be more limited at
this point in the cycle.
We therefore believe that the front-end of the Canada curve will
outperform the US over the next year (here, pp.8-9), and our Canada
curve forecasts are below. Indeed, this is a view we extend across the
belly of the curve with a forecast material widening in negative spreads to
the US. Canada will be paying down federal government debt while the
US continues to issue more, growth is likely to be softer than in the US,
inflation risk may be less acute with Canadian consumers at a more
mature point in their cycle and with no QE north of the border, and the
country is still rated AAA which is attractive to some types of investors.
This picture is nevertheless accompanied by ongoing currency risks that
should be managed separately.
Canada
14q3
14q4f 15q1
15q2
15q3
15q4
16q1
16q2
16q3
16q4
BoC Overnight Target Rate
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.50
2.00
2.25
Prime Rate
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.50
4.00
4.25
3-month T-Bill
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.35
1.70
2.05
2.30
2.60
2-year Canada
1.12
1.15
1.35
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.05
2.20
2.45
2.65
5-year Canada
1.63
1.65
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.40
2.50
2.65
2.80
2.90
10-year Canada
2.15
2.20
2.40
2.65
2.80
2.85
2.90
3.00
3.00
3.10
30-year Canada
2.67
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.30
3.40
3.40
3.45
3.50
3.60
9
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
ASIA
Tuuli McCully (416) 863-2859
[email protected]
India — Economic Outlook 2014-16

Planned economic reforms will underpin growth potential in the coming years.
India’s economic prospects are improving as the administration of
Prime Minister Narendra Modi displays commitment to structural
reform implementation in order to place India back onto a fast-growth
trajectory in a sustainable manner. The government’s reform agenda
should translate into an improved business environment and higher
economic growth potential. Indeed, a period of relative political
stability, increasing infrastructure outlays, and authorities’ efforts to
clear structural bottlenecks delaying large industrial projects will likely
boost investment, and lead to faster real GDP growth through 2016.
First signs of accelerating momentum are emerging with an
improvement in consumer and business confidence indicators and a
pick-up in the performance of core industries and exports. We expect
output growth to accelerate from 5.5% this year to 5.8% in 2015 and
further to 6.2% in 2016. Over a longer time horizon further progress
can be expected: the International Monetary Fund estimates that
India’s real GDP growth will outpace that of China by 2018.
Inflation containment has taken monetary policy priority under the
leadership of Reserve Bank of India Governor Dr. Raghuram Rajan,
who took office in September 2013. The policy repo rate was raised by
75 basis points to 8.0% between September 2013 and January 2014 in
order to set the economy firmly on a disinflationary path. The central
bank will likely keep monetary conditions unchanged in the near term;
lower inflationary pressures may lead to cautious monetary easing in
early 2015. Governor Rajan is aiming to guide consumer price inflation
to under 6% by January 2016 as part of the central bank’s process to
move toward an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. The
consumer price index advanced by 6.5% y/y in September, down from
7.7% y/y in August. Meanwhile, wholesale price inflation decelerated to
2.4% y/y. While low global energy prices bode well for India, the
potential adverse impact on food prices resulting from possible drought
-like conditions caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon together
with possible administered price increases are major risk factors for
the inflation outlook.
Real GDP Growth
7
6
y/y %
change
forecast
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
Inflation
12
y/y % change
10
8
6
4
WPI
2
CPI
0
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
Source: Bloomberg.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Modi has been in power since the general election in
May. The government aims to focus on improving the country’s infrastructure, particularly in the transport,
energy, and information technology sectors. Public sector administrative reforms are another key agenda item,
concentrating on efficiency enhancements such as the reduction of red tape. Policymakers will also continue
their efforts to promote investment, as it will play an important role in increasing the country’s growth potential.
Key aspects in this area are to enhance partnerships with businesses and to increase the role of the private
sector in the economy by lowering ceilings on foreign ownership in various sectors. The new administration has
announced its intention to introduce a goods-and-services tax in 2015, which will serve to bolster public
finances. India’s fiscal position remains under pressure due to still-subdued economic activity and the nation’s
costly fuel and food subsidy bills. The government’s first budget aims to narrow the central government fiscal
deficit to 4.1% of GDP in the 2014/15 Fiscal Year (April-March) from 4.5%. Budget shortfalls remain larger at
the general government level, close to 7% of GDP through 2016.
For further information regarding India’s economic outlook, please refer to the India Executive Briefing report,
published on November 5, 2014, at Scotiabank.com/economics.
10
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
GLOBAL TRADE
Neil Tisdall (416) 866-6252
[email protected]
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Faces Continued Turbulence

Many roadblocks remain before the TPP can be realized.
Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), a
second generation free-trade agreement between twelve countries,
have stalled. While overlapping trade agreements within the potential
TPP members are common, the TPP is larger in scope than existing
trade pacts, covering environmental, competition, intellectual property
and labour policies alongside the more traditional elements of freetrade agreements. The main benefit for Canada’s involvement in the
TPP would be the elimination of trade barriers with Japan, while the
easing of non-trade barriers with the U.S. and Mexico would also be a
catalyst for expanding Canada’s trading capacity. However, given the
many roadblocks to ratification of the 12-member TPP, Canada would
be well-served to redouble its efforts to explore alternatives to the
TPP in order to diversify and strengthen its export growth.
Canada and the U.S. have strong trade ties with Japan, but there is
potential for further cooperation. Japan is the fourth largest trading
partner for both countries and the world’s fifth largest goods importer.
Most Canadian exports to Japan are agricultural goods (in particular
oilseeds such as canola, mustard, and soybeans) and raw materials,
whereas Canada’s imports from Japan are almost exclusively vehicles
and other manufactured goods. Although trade between the U.S. and
Japan consists mainly of finished goods — U.S. aircrafts and medical
equipment head east while Japanese cars, machinery and electronics
return west — U.S. agricultural products such as meat, poultry and
wheat heading to Japan have gained importance over the last decade,
and now account for 14% of U.S. shipments to the island nation. These
trade flows have been complimentary, yet eliminating or lessening
import tariffs on agricultural goods is a contentious issue for Japan, and
a sticking point in the TPP negotiations. Japanese inflexibility on
agricultural import rules prompted the recent removal of a U.S. proposal
to scale back import tariffs on Japanese vehicles.
TPP Nations
% of world GDP - PPP basis, 2013
+
United States
16.5%
Japan
+
Mexico
4.6%
Canada
1.5%
Australia
1.0%
Malaysia
0.7%
Vietnam
0.5%
Singapore*
+
Chile*
0.4%
Peru
2.0%
+
0.4%
0.4%
New Zealand*
0.1%
Brunei
0.03%
*Original TPP members. +Existing free-trade
agreement with Canada.
Source: IMF, Scotiabank Economics.
Canadian Exports
90
85
% of total exports
25
% of total exports
To The U.S.
(LHS)
20
To Non-TPP
Nations (RHS)
80
15
75
10
70
5
To TPP Nations ex. NAFTA (RHS)
To Mexico (RHS)
On top of agricultural and automotive tariffs, non-trade issues are
0
65
also complicating negotiations. Several proposals, including ones that
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
aim to prohibit anti-competitive business conduct, speed up
Source: Industry Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
applications for temporary visits for business people, and place
binding commitments on environmental issues such as logging, the trade in protected wildlife or plants are
complex and far-reaching, and do not necessarily align with local laws. Many of these issues have not been
included in trade agreements before, and if passed as part of the TPP will set the bar for future trade deals.
Adding to uncertainty, public opinion with respect to the agreement is mixed, and intra-government consensus
to join the partnership doesn’t exist across all member states.
Canadian export growth has slowed significantly over the past decade, averaging only 1.3% annually, down
from an average of 6.4% between 1994 and 2003. In addition, shipments to the U.S. have dropped from 84%
of total exports a decade ago to around 75% this year, reinforcing Canada’s need to further diversify and
strengthen its export market. Ratification of the TPP would help accomplish this through the elimination of
tariffs and technical barriers with Japan and other nations, and further eliminate non-trade barriers with
countries that already have free-trade pacts with Canada. Nevertheless, the agreement is unlikely to proceed
without concessions from trade negotiators as well as internal buy-in from member countries, highlighting the
need for Canada to proactively search for alternatives to boost its export market.
11
Fixed Income Strategy
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Frédéric Prêtet (00 33) 17037-7705
[email protected]
Implications Of EU Commission Forecast
EU Commission cuts Eurozone GDP growth…

The EU Commission significantly downgraded its Eurozone growth and inflation forecasts for both this and
next year in its latest Autumn report. Compared to the estimates released six months ago, Eurozone real
GDP is projected to advance just 0.8% in 2014 and 1.1% in 2015, down from 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively,
in its Winter report. For 2016, the Commission expects GDP growth of 1.7%.
No triple-dip recession scenario at this stage

While expectations for an economic recovery are still intact, its pace is seen as more fragile and uncertain.
In this regard, any renewed shocks would certainly heighten the likelihood of a triple-dip recession in the
Eurozone, which at present is not foreseen by the Commission. Indeed, these annual forecasts imply
average growth of +0.2% q/q in H2 of 2014, +0.3%/+0.4% q/q in 2015 and +0.4%/+0.5% q/q in 2016. The
release of Eurozone Q3 GDP this coming week will be worth watching as any outcome lower than +0.2%
q/q would put the EU Commission’s assumptions into question.
Source: EU Commission, Scotiabank
Core countries disappoint, pressure on Germany to act is mounting!

The sharp deterioration in the Eurozone’s growth prospects was largely due to significant downward
revisions in the currency blocs’ three largest economies — Germany, France and Italy. This is alarming
given that it puts into question Germany’s ability to be the growth engine for the rest of the area, which will
likely further exacerbate pressure on Germany from peers to use its “fiscal space” to stimulate the economy.
In the short term however, it also means that the recovery in the peripheral countries will be increasingly
dependent on their own capacity to implement successful structural reforms, which unfortunately takes time
to pass-through to the real economy.
… and inflation!
No deflation in sight, but the risk of prolonged low inflation has risen

In line with lower-than-expected growth, the inflation scenario was also downgraded to 0.5% this year and
0.8% in 2015, compared to its prior projections of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. For 2016, inflation is seen at
12
Fixed Income Strategy
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Frédéric Prêtet (00 33) 17037-7705
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
1.5%. So, while a deflationary spiral is not on the Commission’s radar, the anticipated prolonged period of
below 1% inflation through mid-2015 suggests that deflation risk will likely remain high over the near-term in
the Eurozone. The fact that inflation has been revised down in all countries highlights the spillover risk of
weaker consumer price inflation across the region.
Will the ECB follow suit in December?

The latest forecasts out of the EU Commission could provide some insight into the ECB’s macroeconomic
forecasts to be released in December. Indeed, the likelihood that the ECB will downgrade its GDP forecasts
for this year, 2015 and 2016 is highly probable. Comments from the ECB president Mario Draghi at the
latest press conference also provides further support for a weaker Eurozone growth outlook in the bank’s
next report. For inflation, a downward revision is also likely in 2014 and 2015. However, with the EU
Commission’s 2016 inflation forecast slightly higher than the 1.4% gain expected by the ECB, it will be
interesting to see whether the ECB’s 2016 inflation expectations have changed. It would suggest that the
lagging impact of the euro weakness on medium term inflation could offer support. This is key as the ECB
president just reiterated the view that any downgrading in medium term inflation expectation could trigger
additional actions.
The deficit reduction path remains broadly unchanged!
Is lower interest expenditure and structural reforms fuelling the reduction in the budget deficit?

It was surprising to see that despite a significant downward revision in GDP and inflation, the budget deficit
forecast remained largely unchanged. The Eurozone Budget deficit is seen down to -2.6% and -2.4% of
GDP for both this and next year, just 0.1% higher than previously thought, and to -2.1% in 2016. In the
meantime, the debt to GDP ratio is seen lower than previously thought, thanks in particular to favorable
base effects (lower debt to GDP ratio in 2013). So, it is seen as reaching its high point this year at 94.5% of
GDP before declining to 93.6% in 2016.
Source: EU Commission, Scotiabank

Across countries, it is worth mentioning that changes were significant. The reduction in the budget deficit in
most peripherals countries (Ireland, Greece, Spain, Cyprus) have been significantly better than expected.
As a result, the debt to GDP ratio in countries such as Ireland or Cyprus are more than 10% of GDP lower
than assumed six months ago! Among these countries, except for Spain, the debt to GDP ratio is now seen
as entering into a declining path by 2016. On the other hand, for core countries — with the exception of
13
November 7, 2014
Fixed Income Strategy
Global Views
Frédéric Prêtet (00 33) 17037-7705
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
Germany — the budget deficit is seen as higher than previously anticipated. It is especially the case
for Italy but more importantly for France where, compared to most Eurozone countries, the budget
deficit is seen as widening over the forecast horizon to a high of -4.7% of GDP in 2016 – the worst
expected performance in the region, with the debt to GDP flirting with 100%. These forecasts are very
far from the French government’s projections of -3.8% and 98% of GDP in 2016, respectively!
Diverging path between the two key pillars of the EU Construction


These forecasts continue to fuel the belief that France could be the new “sick man” of Europe. In
France’s defense, it is important to point out that:

First, forecasts from the EU Commission do not account for the recent budget adjustments
taken by the French government worth around 0.2% of GDP per annum, which could explain
about 0.4% of the deficit to GDP gap in 2016.

Second, French GDP growth is lower in the EU Commission’s scenario.

And third, the Commission seems to have difficulty addressing the full impact of the structural
reforms. As an example, it is true that part of the large revisions in the budget deficit of
peripherals countries came from the impact of the sharp drop in interest rates, which
mechanically lower the interest payment on debt. However, the strong improvement also seen
in the primary structural balance (which excludes the impacts of both interest payments and
the growth cycle) in these countries suggests that structural reforms have a significant impact
as well. In the case of France, this could also have some implications at a time when the
OECD just released a working paper mentioning that recent structural reforms could boost
France’s potential growth by around 0.3% per annum in the next decade. So, it will be
interesting to see the upcoming OECD macroeconomic forecasts to assess potential
divergences with the EU Commission on this point!
All in all, these forecasts continue to raise questions on the management of Eurozone policy, with the
two pillars of the EU construction (France & Germany) witnessing an unprecedented divergence in
their debt to GDP ratios, which in the event of renewed adverse shocks could result in gridlock and
economic paralysis.
14
Fixed Income Strategy
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Frédéric Prêtet (00 33) 17037-7705
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
No more austerity weighing on the recovery

Changes in the primary structural budget balance are also a good way to address how fiscal policy could
impact the growth cycle. Between 2011 & 2013, the structural primary balance in the Eurozone improved
between 1.0% to 1.5% of GDP each year, moving from -2.3% of GDP in 2010 to a +1.5% surplus in 2013.
In view of the EU Commission forecasts, the primary structural deficit is now seen as remaining roughly
stable at around +1.5% of GDP with even a slight decline to +1.3% in 2016. This suggests that fiscal
policy will no longer be a burden on the Eurozone recovery.

This is significant and bodes well with recent speeches from the ECB president asking for more flexibility
in the Growth and Stability Pact and better management of the policy mix (coordinated action between
fiscal and monetary policy). For the first time in many years, the Eurozone could get the support from both
a significant easing in financial conditions (lower interest rates & euro exchange rate) as well as a more
neutral fiscal policy. In theory, this opens the door for a better growth performance in the years to come.
15
November 7, 2014
Foreign Exchange Strategy
Global Views
Eduardo Suárez (416) 945-4538
[email protected]
Latin America Week Ahead: For The Week Of November 10 - 14
Week-ahead views:
Brazil: We are curious to see how the latest BCB weekly survey of economists prints, given the sharp reaction we
saw last Thursday to the release of the BCB’s latest minutes (BRL -2.4% and the longer end of the DI curve
+30bps). We believe much of the policy changes hang on what happens in the Finance Ministry, as adjustments in
the fiscal stance and state-controlled bank lending are necessary to correct a lot of the policy imbalances that
currently plague the country. Our sense is that the volatility we are seeing in local markets is the result of
overreaction to the small bits of information we are getting, as we wait for the appointments of key economic
policymakers to shed more light onto what can be expected. These appointments are not expected until after the
G20 meetings, with the most recent reports putting the announcement date at the end of November / start of
December, which leavesus open to continued speculation-driven volatility. We agree with our local team’s view that
“the government’s grace period is likely to be short”… as evidenced by the recent performance of BRL / local rates.
Our sense is that the government is trying to give signals that it plans to change its course, at least somewhat.
Some of the positive signs we've seen include:

The BCB’s recent surprise rate hike could be interpreted as an attempt to regain market credibility.

The BCB’s acknowledgement that the widespread use of subsidized credit carries costs… this message
was echoed today by FinMin Mantega.

FinMin Mantega said this is the last year of the country’s counter-cyclical policy.

The BCB acknowledged that the loose fiscal policy settings need to be reversed.

Bloomberg cited sources within the government as signaling that whoever is chosen as FinMin will be given
leeway to appoint his/her own team.
However, until a new finance minister is appointed (and we see clearer signs from actual policy implementation)
there is still an important degree of uncertainty about the ability and willingness to take the painful policy
decisions which are needed to balance public finances and help restore the economy’s lost competitiveness. We
still believe that even under an ideal policy environment, Brazil faces a slow growth period as the necessary
deleveraging runs its course — which means reducing the net contribution of fiscal spending, as well as a period
of slower consumer demand. In addition, a weakening of the BRL is needed, but two conditions are also
required for the FX adjustment to be positive: 1) there needs to be a “real depreciation of the real”, 2) our sense
is that ideally the adjustment should be gradual, given potential balance sheet miss-matches. Restoring
credibility could help the government’s infrastructure building plans gain traction, and on this front, appointing a
strong FinMin is key.
Chile: CLP’s correlation with copper prices has strengthened recently, with the relative resilience of red metal
prices helping boost the Chilean peso despite economic news on the domestic front remaining mixed at best.
Given China’s importance for global copper demand, news on the China policy front should be relevant for
CLP’s prospects. Our Asian FX strategy team yesterday highlighted that:
“The PBoC released its Q3 monetary policy report which reiterated its stance to keep prudent and stable
monetary policy, with timely policy fine-tuning. There was also the pledge to keep reasonable growth in
credit and social financing, and reasonable liquidity and to lower financing costs for the real economy. The
typical refrain to keep the yuan basically stable (this does not mean fixed or a change in policy) was also
included. Essentially there was nothing new in the overall rhetoric that would suggest a significant policy
stance change. However the PBoC did officially indicate the usage of a new liquidity management tool
called the medium-term lending facility, which it has already used to inject around RMB 770bn into the
financial system (3-month money at a rate of 3.5%). This officially acknowledged what had been rumored to
be happening and hints at the comment in the statement of the efforts to lower financing costs in the
economy / keep reasonable liquidity. We note that the risk is still obviously for further monetary easing/
liquidity measures in the coming months, particularly considering that the Q3 report noted that economic
downward pressure and potential risks may increase in the future.”
16
Foreign Exchange Strategy
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Eduardo Suárez (416) 945-4538
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
Colombia: Next week’s data pipeline is quite heavy, featuring important indicators of economic activity, which
we believe will be closely watched given the sharp slowdown we’ve seen in the rest of the region, as well as the
deceleration we saw in Colombia during Q2 (a drop in the y/y growth rate from 6.4% in Q1, to 4.3% in Q2 —
which is still very robust). So far, domestic demand-driven indicators have proven robust, and it will be
interesting to see if this remains the case. In addition, we are set to get the release of BanRep’s MPC meeting
minutes where we look to get more guidance on the debate going on within the central bank. In particular, we
will be interested in seeing how the recent moves in the Colombian peso are viewed by BanRep’s board
members (inflation implications, whether the board sees the weaker COP as a risk for consumer spending, etc.).
Mexico: The Mexican Senate ratified the re-appointment of Roberto del Cueto as Deputy Governor of Banxico
yesterday afternoon. Our read of the board is that del Cueto is among the camp that has in the past supported easing,
and is aligned with Governor Carstens. However, we also believe that the re-appointment was widely expected, so it
should not have a material impact on policy expectations. On the data front, there are a few relevant indicators to look
forward to next week, including gross fixed investment which will serve as guidance on how corporate sentiment /
confidence stands at the moment. In addition, we get industrial production for September, which seems set for a
reasonably strong print, given the continued strong performance of the auto-sector based on the AMIA data for
September and even more so for October. The key release of the week is likely to be Banxico’s MPC meeting
minutes, where we will get further colour on the outlook for policy. From the latest statement, our sense is that the
tone was neutral, but we read it as more of an indication of “all paths are open”, rather than a statement indicating no
change for a prolonged period. We hope next week’s minutes shed further light on this front.
On the infrastructure front, it was announced yesterday that the results of the bidding for the Queretaro-Mexico City
high-speed train were cancelled due to complaints over the project being allocated to its single bidder, and the
decision not to extend the deadline that the other major bidders for the project had requested. We have mixed reads
on this. On the positive side, more bidders should lead to better costs for the project, and more transparency in the
bidding process is better (the benefits of transparency for EM infrastructure spending seemed to be one of the
messages from the IMF’s latest WEO). On the negative front: 1) the federal government has so far proven to be
fairly quick in implementing the infrastructure projects / energy reform, but execution has run into bottlenecks at the
local level — our fear is that the combination of different pressures may start leading to delays at the Federal level
too, thus delaying the pickup in domestically driven activity. 2) there seems to be a growing number of fires that the
government needs to look after, and maintaining focus may become increasingly tough.
Peru: Next week’s highlight is likely to be the BCRP’s MPC meeting, where consensus looks for rates to be left
unchanged, but there are calls for a potential cut. Our sense is that additional rate cuts are likely, but the timing
is tough to call. We believe the official growth forecasts for 2015 may be underestimating how important less
favourable terms of trade are to the outlook for domestic demand, and accordingly believe that the risks for
Peru’s expected 2015 growth are to the downside (potentially materially relative to the official forecasts). For a
country that has had a consistently appreciating currency for the past ten years, and that is primarily a
commodity exporter and an importer of consumer/capital goods, the income effects from a sustained, large and
prolonged terms of trade shock are very important and its reversal is likely to prove an important headwind for
consumer demand in our view. On this front, next week’s release of the monthly economic activity &
unemployment should be watched.
17
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Frances Donald (416) 862-3080
[email protected]
Derek Holt (416) 863-7707
[email protected]
Dov Zigler (212) 225-6631
[email protected]
Key Data Preview
CANADA
We’re expecting that Canadian manufacturing sales will have a
fairly robust bounce-back from their August doldrums, on the order of
1.2% m/m with upside potential. Why the enthusiasm? First off,
August provides a very weak base, with manufacturing sales having
fallen by 3.3% m/m on volatility in the autos sector. Export data for
September showed robust strength across industrial sectors,
including a 6% m/m increase in motor vehicle exports, a 6.2%
increase in exports of metal products, a 6.6% increase in exports of
consumer goods — in short, the whole range of finished products
was strong, pointing to a solid uptick in manufacturing on the month.
Although new orders fell in August (-3.8% m/m) they remain fairly
elevated in terms of their absolute level (see chart). U.S. industrial
production on the month was solid as well, reinforcing our conviction
that we’ll see a strong number.
Canada Manufacturing Sales & Orders
New Orders Volatility...
60
C$, Billions
55
50
45
New Orders
40
Shipments
35
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Housing starts are a bit of a puzzle in 2014. Demand has clearly
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics
been solid but starts have run at strong levels for years, and
moreover, the wave of condo supply (oversupply?) in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal has to eventually
weigh on starts in that sector — and yet, condo starts have remained firm. We’re expecting construction to
remain on trend at 195k starts in October as permits, despite some monthly volatility, have by and large been
solid and ticked higher in September. We note that there is some risk that starts will be more volatile as we
enter the winter months because actual construction levels represented by the seasonally adjusted numbers
fall, meaning that small differences in absolute quantities of starts are magnified by the adjustment of the data.
UNITED STATES
We’re anticipating a soft U.S. retail sales number for October of
0.1% m/m. The factors weighing against retail sales are many.
Vehicle sales were essentially flat on the month according to Ward’s
(+0.06% m/m), the International Council of Shopping Centers’ activity
index fell, and gasoline prices were very soft (see chart). In short,
there isn’t much to get excited about. The bull case rests on the fact
that retail sales were soft in September (-0.3% m/m) and are due to
pop – not the most persuasive argument in our view.
How are consumers reacting to lower oil prices? The U of M’s
consumer confidence survey for November will have its first cut
released this week, and we’re anticipating a moderate uptick in the
index to a reading of 88 on a mix of factors including lower gasoline
prices on the month (see chart) as well as a mix of renewed
enthusiasm in the equity market and a continued solid jobs numbers
in October.
4
3.9
U.S. Gasoline Prices
Big Drop.
USD/Gallon
3.8
Regular Gasoline Price,
Monthly Avg.
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics
The first budget statement for the federal government’s 2015 fiscal year lands this week, and we will be
watching the year-on-year comparison to begin to get a sense of the extent to which the government’s fiscal
balance will improve this year (if at all). Note that October is typically a deficit month for the government and
has tended to represent between 15-20% of the cumulative deficit over the past two years. Last year’s deficit
improvement will be a hard act to follow as increases in revenues due to changes in tax policy in late 2012
continued to provide a boost to year-on-year comparisons for part of the 2014 fiscal year. Still, we’re hopeful
that overall strength in the economy combined with fiscal discipline will cause the deficit to continue to narrow.
A1
18
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Erika Cain (416) 866-4205
[email protected]
Rory Johnston (416) 862-3908
[email protected]
Tuuli McCully (416) 863-2859
[email protected]
… continued from previous page
EUROPE
Third-quarter real GDP estimates will be released across the euro
zone on Friday November 14th. Over the summer months, incoming
economic data and survey results indicated that growth in the 18member currency bloc has lost momentum underpinned by
heightened geopolitical tension and negative confidence effects. We
expect euro zone real GDP will advance at a meager 0.1% q/q rate in
the third quarter held back by modest growth prospects in the region’s
largest economies. Economic activity in Germany is estimated to
come to a standstill in Q3, while France registers a modest gain and
Italy posts its second quarterly contraction (following Q1 revisions)
entering into technical recession. Weakness in euro zone potential
growth has occurred as the legacy of low productivity gains has been
exacerbated by the post-crisis contraction in capital formation, high
unemployment, deleveraging pressures and insufficient progress in
structural reforms. Fourth-quarter growth is also expected to remain
soft; however, expectations of a modest recovery remain intact.
Output growth will likely gradually rise through 2016, as domestic
demand is supported by reduced uncertainty, progress in structural
reforms, accommodative monetary conditions, banking sector repair,
and lower energy prices boosting real disposable income. Exports
should also benefit from the weaker euro and stronger global growth.
Nevertheless, the strength of the recovery will be dampened by
elevated unemployment, sizeable unutilized capacity, and ongoing
public and private sector balance sheet repair. Inadequate progress in
structural reforms poses a significant downward risk to the outlook.
LATIN AMERICA
Colombian industrial production and retail sales figures for September
will be released on November 14th. We believe that Colombian
industrial production in September expanded by about 1% y/y, up
from 0.3% in August and that retail sales grew by 7% y/y, down
slightly from 7.5% in the previous month. Colombian economic growth
will likely converge towards the 4.5% growth rate estimated by the
central bank but the country will increasingly rely on domestic
consumer demand to offset falling global commodity prices.
ASIA
Malaysia will release third-quarter GDP data on November 13th (EST).
The economy continues to perform strongly with real GDP expanding
by 6.3% y/y in the first half of 2014. Activity remains broadly based
with domestic demand being the key driving force. Private
consumption continues to be underpinned by rising incomes and
supportive labour market conditions, whereas investment activity is
bolstered by both public and private sector outlays. Nevertheless, we
expect a modest output growth deceleration in the third quarter to
5.8% y/y, reflecting slower gains in the export sector. Malaysian real
GDP will likely expand by around 6% in 2014 as a whole.
Euro zone Real GDP Growth
5.0
y/y % change
4.0
forecast
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14f
16f
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics
Colombian Industrial
Production & Retail Sales forecast
10
Retail Sales
5
0
-5
IP
-10
y/y %
change
-15
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
Malaysian Real GDP Growth
7
6
forecast
y/y %
change
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A2
19
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Key Indicators for the week of November 10 – 14
North America
Country Date
CA
11/10
Time
08:15
Indicator
Housing Starts (000s a.r.)
Period
Oct
BNS
195.0
Consensus
199.8
Latest
197.3
Sep
--
3.5
1.4
MX
11/11
09:00
Industrial Production (y/y)
US
CA
US
11/12
11/12
11/12
07:00
08:30
10:00
MBA Mortgage Applications (w/w)
Teranet - National Bank HPI (y/y)
Wholesale Inventories (m/m)
NOV 7
Oct
Sep
----
--0.2
-2.6
5.4
0.7
CA
US
US
US
11/13
11/13
11/13
11/13
08:30
08:30
08:30
14:00
New Housing Price Index (m/m)
Initial Jobless Claims (000s)
Continuing Claims (000s)
Treasury Budget (US$ bn)
Sep
NOV 8
NOV 1
Oct
-280
2340
--
-280
2320
-111.7
0.3
278
2348
105.8
CA
US
US
US
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
08:30
08:30
08:30
09:55
Manufacturing Shipments (m/m)
Retail Sales (m/m)
Retail Sales ex. Autos (m/m)
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov P
1.2
0.1
0.1
88.0
1.1
0.3
0.2
87.5
-3.3
-0.3
-0.2
86.9
Country Date
IT
11/10
Time
04:00
Indicator
Industrial Production (m/m)
Period
Sep
BNS
--
Consensus
-0.2
Latest
0.3
04:30
04:30
04:30
04:30
05:00
05:00
Average Weekly Earnings (3-month, y/y)
Employment Change (3M/3M, 000s)
Jobless Claims Change (000s)
ILO Unemployment Rate (%)
Industrial Production (m/m)
Industrial Production (y/y)
Sep
Sep
Oct
Sep
Sep
Sep
----0.6
--
0.8
125.0
-20.0
5.9
0.7
-0.2
0.7
46.0
-18.6
6.0
-1.8
-1.9
Europe
UK
UK
UK
UK
EC
EC
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
GE
GE
GE
GE
FR
FR
FR
FR
SP
SP
SP
SP
IT
RU
11/13
02:00
11/13
02:00
11/13
02:00
11/13
02:00
11/13
02:45
11/13
02:45
11/13
02:45
11/13
02:45
11/13
03:00
11/13
03:00
11/13
03:00
11/13
03:00
11/13
04:00
NOV 13-14
CPI (m/m)
CPI (y/y)
CPI - EU Harmonized (m/m)
CPI - EU Harmonized (y/y)
CPI (m/m)
CPI (y/y)
CPI - EU Harmonized (m/m)
CPI - EU Harmonized (y/y)
CPI (m/m)
CPI (y/y)
CPI - EU Harmonized (m/m)
CPI - EU Harmonized (y/y)
CPI - EU Harmonized (y/y)
Real GDP (y/y)
Oct F
Oct F
Oct F
Oct F
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct F
Oct
Oct F
Oct F
3Q A
-0.3
0.8
-0.3
0.7
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.5
--0.1
-0.2
0.2
--
-0.3
0.8
-0.3
0.7
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.3
0.8
-0.3
0.7
-0.4
0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-0.1
1.0
-0.2
0.2
0.8
FR
FR
GE
GE
FR
HU
IT
IT
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
Real GDP (q/q)
Real GDP (y/y)
Real GDP (q/q)
Real GDP (y/y)
Non-Farm Payrolls (q/q)
GDP (y/y)
Real GDP (q/q)
Real GDP (y/y)
3Q P
3Q P
3Q P
3Q P
3Q P
3Q P
3Q P
3Q P
0.1
0.3
0.0
1.0
---0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
1.0
-2.8
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.1
-0.2
0.8
0.1
3.9
-0.2
-0.3
01:30
01:30
02:00
02:00
02:45
03:00
04:00
01:30
Forecasts at time of publication.
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A3
1
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Key Indicators for the week of November 10 – 14
Europe (continued from previous page)
Country
PO
PO
EC
EC
EC
EC
GR
Date
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
Time
04:00
04:30
05:00
05:00
05:00
05:00
05:00
Indicator
GDP (y/y)
Real GDP (q/q)
CPI (m/m)
CPI (y/y)
Euro zone Core CPI Estimate (y/y)
GDP (q/q)
Real GDP NSA (y/y)
Period
3Q P
3Q P
Oct
Oct F
Oct F
3Q A
3Q A
BNS
--0.0
0.4
0.8
0.1
--
Consensus
2.7
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.4
Latest
3.3
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.3
Indicator
Exports (y/y)
Imports (y/y)
Trade Balance (USD bn)
Period
Oct
Oct
Oct
BNS
----
Consensus
10.6
5.0
42.0
Latest
15.3
7.0
31.0
Asia Pacific
Country Date
Time
CH
NOV 07-08
CH
NOV 07-08
CH
NOV 07-08
JN
AU
AU
CH
CH
CH
CH
IN
IN
11/09
18:50
11/09
19:30
11/09
19:30
11/09
20:30
11/09
20:30
NOV 09-15
NOV 09-15
NOV 09-17
NOV 09-17
Official Reserve Assets (US$ bn)
Home Loans (%)
Investment Lending (% change)
CPI (y/y)
PPI (y/y)
Aggregate Financing (CNY bn)
New Yuan Loans (bn)
Exports (y/y)
Imports (y/y)
Oct
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
---1.6
-1.8
-----
--0.4
-1.6
-2.0
887.5
626.4
---
1264.4
-0.9
-0.1
1.6
-1.8
1052.2
857.2
2.73
25.96
JN
JN
JN
AU
PH
MA
11/10
11/10
11/10
11/10
11/10
11/10
18:50
18:50
18:50
19:30
20:00
23:01
Bank Lending (y/y)
Current Account (¥ bn)
Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥ bn)
House Price Index (y/y)
Exports (y/y)
Industrial Production (y/y)
Oct
Sep
Sep
3Q
Sep
Sep
-------
-536.1
-782.5
8.8
11.4
5.5
2.3
287.1
-831.8
10.1
10.5
6.5
JN
JN
JN
JN
SK
JN
JN
JN
AU
NZ
NZ
11/11
00:00
11/11
01:00
11/11
01:00
11/11
01:00
11/11
18:00
11/11
18:50
11/11
18:50
11/11
18:50
11/11
19:30
NOV 11-13
NOV 11-13
Consumer Confidence
Eco Watchers Survey (current)
Eco Watchers Survey (outlook)
Machine Tool Orders (y/y)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Tertiary Industry Index (m/m)
Japan Money Stock M2 (y/y)
Japan Money Stock M3 (y/y)
Wage Cost Index (q/q)
REINZ House Sales (y/y)
REINZ Housing Price Index (m/m)
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct P
Oct
Sep
Oct
Oct
3Q
Oct
Oct
----3.5
-------
40.5
47.2
--3.5
0.8
3.00
2.5
0.6
---
39.9
47.4
48.7
34.7
3.5
-0.1
3.00
2.5
0.6
-12.0
0.2
IN
IN
NZ
JN
NZ
SK
JN
JN
ID
11/12
07:00
11/12
07:00
11/12
16:30
11/12
18:50
11/12
19:00
11/12
20:00
11/12
23:30
11/12
23:30
NOV 12-13
CPI (y/y)
Industrial Production (y/y)
Business NZ PMI
Machine Orders (m/m)
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index
BoK Base Rate (%)
Capacity Utilization (m/m)
Industrial Production (y/y)
BI Reference Interest Rate (%)
Oct
Sep
Oct
Sep
Nov
Nov 13
Sep
Sep F
Nov 13
6.3
----2.00
-0.6
7.50
----1.2
-2.00
----
6.5
0.4
58.1
4.7
123.4
2.00
-1.7
0.6
7.50
Forecasts at time of publication.
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A4
2
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Key Indicators for the week of November 10 – 14
Asia Pacific (continued from previous page)
Country
Period
BNS
Consensus
Latest
CH
CH
CH
MA
MA
CH
ID
11/13
00:30
11/13
00:30
11/13
00:30
11/13
23:00
11/13
23:00
NOV 13-18
NOV 13-14
Date
Time
Indicator
Fixed Asset Investment YTD (y/y)
Industrial Production (y/y)
Retail Sales (y/y)
Current Account Balance (MYR mns)
GDP (y/y)
Actual FDI (y/y)
Current Account Balance (US$ mn)
Oct
Oct
Oct
3Q
3Q
Oct
3Q
-8.0
--5.8
---
16.0
8.0
11.6
9.1
5.6
1.1
--
16.1
8.0
11.6
16004.0
6.4
1.9
-9113.0
SI
IN
HK
11/14
11/14
11/14
00:00
01:30
03:30
Retail Sales (y/y)
Monthly Wholesale Prices (y/y)
Real GDP (y/y)
Sep
Oct
3Q
-2.7
--
4.1
-2.0
5.4
2.4
1.8
Time
18:00
Indicator
Reference Rate (%)
Period
Nov
BNS
3.50
Consensus
3.50
Latest
3.50
06:00
06:00
16:00
16:00
Retail Sales (m/m)
Retail Sales (y/y)
Industrial Production (y/y)
Retail Sales (y/y)
Economic Activity Index NSA (y/y)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
--1.0
7.0
---
0.1
-0.3
0.9
7.0
---
1.1
-1.1
0.3
7.5
1.2
5.6
Latin America
Country Date
PE
11/13
BZ
BZ
CO
CO
PE
PE
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
Forecasts at time of publication.
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A5
3
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Global Auctions for the week of November 10 – 14
North America
Country
US
US
US
CA
US
Date Time Event
11/10 11:30 U.S. to Sell 3-Month Bills
11/10 13:00 U.S. to Sell 3-Year Notes
11/12 11:30 U.S. to Sell 52-Week Bills
11/12 12:00 Canada to Sell 30-Year Bonds
11/12 13:00 U.S. to Sell 10-Year Notes
Europe
Country
FR
Date Time Event
11/10 08:30 France to Sell Bills
NE
MB
NO
EC
SZ
BE
BE
GE
11/11
11/11
11/11
11/11
11/11
11/11
11/11
11/11
04:30
05:00
05:00
05:10
05:15
05:30
05:30
05:30
Netherlands to Sell Up to EUR2 Bln 2.75% 2047 Bonds
Malta to Sell Bills
Norway to Sell NOK2 Bln 4.5% 2019 Bonds
ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result
Switzerland to Sell 91-Day Bills
Belgium to Sell 3-Month Bills
Belgium to Sell 12-Month Bills
Germany to Sell EUR1 Bln 0.5% I/L 2030 Bonds
IT
SW
SZ
GE
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
05:00
05:03
05:15
05:30
Italy to Sell Bills
Sweden to Sell SEK3.5 Bln 3.75% 2017 Bonds
Switzerland to Sell Bonds (optional date)
Germany to Sell EUR5 Bln 2016 Bonds
IT
SW
UK
IC
11/13
11/13
11/13
11/13
05:00
05:03
05:30
06:00
Italy to Sell Bonds
Sweden to Exchange Bonds
UK to Sell GBP3 BLN 2.75% 2024 Bonds
Iceland to Sell Bills
UK
SW
IC
UK
UK
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
05:00
05:03
06:00
06:00
06:00
U.K. to Sell 3-Month Bills
Sweden to Exchange Bonds
Iceland to Sell Bonds
U.K. to Sell 1-Month Bills
U.K. to Sell 6-Month Bills
Asia Pacific
Country
CH
CH
Date Time Event
11/09 22:00 China to Sell 3-Year Saving Bonds
11/09 22:00 China to Sell 5-Year Saving Bonds
AU
JN
11/10 19:00 Australia Plans to Sell Index Linked Bonds
11/10 22:45 Japan to Sell 30-Year Bonds
CH
11/11 22:00 China to Sell 7-Year Bonds
NZ
JN
JN
11/12 20:05 New Zealand Plans to Sell NZD100 Mln Indexed Linked Bonds
11/12 22:35 Japan to Sell 3-Month Bill
11/12 22:45 Japan to Sell 5-Year Bonds
Latin America
Country
BZ
BZ
BZ
BZ
BZ
Date
11/13
11/13
11/13
11/13
11/13
Time
09:15
09:15
09:15
09:15
09:15
Event
Brazil to Sell Bills due 04/01/2015
Brazil to Sell Bills due 10/01/2016
Brazil to Sell Bills due 07/01/2018
Brazil to Sell Fixed-rate bonds due 1/1/2021
Brazil to Sell Fixed-rate bonds due 1/1/2025
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A6
4
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Events for the week of November 10 – 14
North America
Country
Date
Time Event
US
11/10 17:10 Fed's Rosengren Speaks at Washington and Lee University
US
CA
US
CA
11/12 03:00 Fed's Plosser Speaks on the Economy in London
11/12 11:25 Lawrence Schembri Gives a Presentation
11/12 12:00 Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin
11/12
Canada to Release Fiscal Update
US
CA
11/13 12:45 Fed Chair Janet Yellen welcoming remarks at FRB/ECB event
11/13 15:05 Carolyn Wilkins Gives a Speech
US
US
US
11/14 09:10 Fed's Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy in St. Louis
11/14 16:00 Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer moderates panel at Fed
11/14 16:00 Fed's Powell takes part in a panel at a FRB/ECB event
Europe
Country Date Time Event
IT
11/10 04:30 Bank of Italy Publishes Monthly Report `Money and Banks'
EC
11/10 09:30 ECB Announces Covered-Bond Purchases
EC
11/10 13:00 ECB's Mersch Speaks in Herrenberg, Germany
SW
SP
PO
11/11 03:30 Riksbank Releases Minutes of October Policy Meeting
11/11 04:00 ECB linde speaks in madrid
11/11
Bank of Portugal Releases Data on Banks
NO
UK
GE
GE
HU
EC
GE
PO
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
11/12
EC
EC
GE
11/13 02:00 ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks in Stockholm
11/13 04:00 ECB Publishes Monthly Report
11/13
German Budget Committee Finalizes 2015 Budget Draft, Berlin
EC
GE
GE
EC
EC
EC
PO
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
11/14
04:10
05:30
06:00
06:00
08:00
11:25
18:00
04:00
05:30
05:30
06:00
07:50
16:00
Norges Bank's Nicolaisen speaks in Oslo
Bank of England Inflation Report
Germany's Five `Wisemen' Publish Review of Economy: Berlin
Government's Council of Economic Advisers Presents Outlook
Hungarian Central Bank's Minutes
EU's Mogherini, Belgium's Reynders Speak to Press
Budget Committee Signs Off on 2015 Federal Budget: Berlin
Bank of Portugal Releases Financial Stability Report
EU Finance Ministers Discuss Bloc's 2015 Budget in Brussels
German Lawmakers Brief on Committee Markup of Budget Bill
German Coalition Budget Spokesmen Brief on Final 2015 Budget
ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks in Stockholm
ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington
Portuguese Economy Minister, PSA Peugeot Citroen CEO at Event
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A7
5
Economics
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Events for the week of November 10 – 14
Asia Pacific
Country Date Time Event
NZ
11/10 16:40 RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks (Not Public)
AU
11/10 19:10 RBA's Aylmer Speech at Securitization Conference
NZ
NZ
JN
11/11 15:00 RBNZ Financial Stability Report
11/11 15:05 RBNZ Governor Wheeler News Conference
11/11 20:00 BOJ Board Member Miyao Speaks in Nagasaki
SK
AU
ID
11/12 20:00 BoK 7-Day Repo Rate
11/12 20:30 RBA's Kent Speech at Business Economists Event
NOV 12-13
Bank Indonesia Reference Rate
Latin America
Country Date Time Event
PO
11/12 06:30 Chile's Central Bank President Vergara Speaks in Lisbon
PE
11/13 18:00 Reference Rate
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A8
6
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Global Central Bank Watch
North America
NORTH
AMERICA
Rate
Bank of Canada – Overnight Target Rate
Current Rate
1.00
Next Meeting
December 3, 2014
Scotia's Forecasts
1.00
Consensus Forecasts
--
Federal Reserve – Federal Funds Target Rate
0.25
Banco de México – Overnight Rate
3.00
December 17, 2014
0.25
0.25
December 5, 2014
3.00
--
Fed: Seven Federal Reserve officials are speaking next week including Chair Yellen, Vice Chair Fischer, Governor Powell and four others. The Fed's Labor
Market Conditions Index is due out on Monday, and Thursday's JOLTS Job opening reports will weigh on central bank thinking. Retail sales on Friday will
give insight into whether consumers are spending their gas savings yet. BoC: Deputy Governor Schembri and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins are
speaking but the topics of their speech will only be revealed next week. Data risk will book-end the week with housing starts on Monday and manufacturing
shipments on Friday.
Europe
EUROPE
Rate
European Central Bank – Refinancing Rate
Current Rate
0.05
Next Meeting
December 4, 2014
Scotia's Forecasts
0.05
Consensus Forecasts
--
Bank of England – Bank Rate
0.50
December 4, 2014
0.50
0.50
Swiss National Bank – Libor Target Rate
0.00
December 11, 2014
0.00
--
Central Bank of Russia – One-Week Auction Rate
9.50
December 11, 2014
9.50
--
Hungarian National Bank – Base Rate
2.10
November 25, 2014
2.10
2.10
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey – 1 Wk Repo Rate
Sweden Riksbank – Repo Rate
8.25
0.00
November 20, 2014
December 16, 2014
8.25
0.00
---
Norges Bank – Deposit Rate
1.50
December 11, 2014
1.50
--
Current Rate
2.50
Next Meeting
December 1, 2014
Scotia's Forecasts
2.50
Consensus Forecasts
2.50
Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Cash Rate
3.50
December 10, 2014
3.50
3.50
People's Bank of China – Lending Rate
6.00
TBA
--
--
Reserve Bank of India – Repo Rate
8.00
December 2, 2014
8.00
--
Bank of Korea – Bank Rate
2.00
November 12, 2014
2.00
2.00
Bank of Thailand – Repo Rate
2.00
December 17, 2014
2.00
2.00
Bank Indonesia – Reference Interest Rate
7.50
November 13, 2014
7.50
--
Asia Pacific
ASIA
PACIFIC
Rate
Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Target Rate
We expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.0% next week, yet the potential for a rate cut has increased
somewhat following the Bank of Japan’s recent decision to add monetary stimulus. Monetary authorities have lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50
basis points since August in an attempt to support the economy. Inflationary pressures in South Korea remain mild with the consumer price index rising by
1.2% y/y in October – well below the BoK’s target corridor (2½-3½%). Bank Indonesia considers the current monetary policy stance as sufficient for
managing inflation. Accordingly, we expect the central bank to maintain the benchmark reference rate at 7.5% for the foreseeable future. Indonesia’s
inflation accelerated to 4.8% y/y in October from 4.5% y/y in September on the back of increasing utility price levels. A gradual hike in electricity tariffs
combined with an anticipated increase to fuel prices brought on by the new government will continue to place moderate pressure on prices.
Latin America
LATIN
AMERICA
Rate
Banco Central do Brasil – Selic Rate
Current Rate
11.25
Next Meeting
December 3, 2014
Scotia's Forecasts
11.25
Consensus Forecasts
--
Banco Central de Chile – Overnight Rate
3.00
November 18, 2014
3.00
--
Banco de la República de Colombia – Lending Rate
4.50
November 28, 2014
4.50
--
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú – Reference Rate
3.50
November 13, 2014
3.50
3.50
The Banco Central de Reserva del Perú will announce its benchmark reference rate at its upcoming meeting on November 13th. We believe that
Peruvian monetary authorities will hold their policy rate steady at 3.50% this month following two 25 basis point reductions since June. The inflation rate has
remained at the upper end of the central bank’s 1-3% target range over the last three months and came in at 3.1% y/y in October; however, we expect that
inflation will remain generally within this target band through the end of 2016.
Africa
AFRICA
Rate
South African Reserve Bank – Repo Rate
Current Rate
5.75
Next Meeting
November 20, 2014
Scotia's Forecasts
5.75
Consensus Forecasts
--
Forecasts at time of publication.
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A9
7
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Forecasts as at October 30, 2014*
Forecasts as at October 30, 2014*
2000-13
Output and Inflation (annual % change)
2014f
2015f
2016f
2000-13
2014f
2015f
2016f
2
Real GDP
Consumer Prices
World1
3.9
3.3
3.7
3.7
Canada
Canada
UnitedUnited
StatesStates
MexicoMexico
2.2
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
3.2
3.6
2.4
3.0
3.8
2.0
2.4
4.7
1.9
1.7
4.2
1.7
1.8
4.2
2.1
2.3
4.0
Kingdom
UnitedUnited
Kingdom
Euro Zone
Euro zone
1.8
1.2
3.0
0.7
2.5
1.2
2.0
1.4
2.3
2.0
1.6
0.5
2.0
1.0
2.1
1.1
Japan Japan
Australia
Australia
China China
India India
Korea South Korea
Thailand
Thailand
0.9
3.0
9.1
7.0
4.1
4.1
1.3
3.0
7.4
5.5
3.5
1.5
1.0
2.7
7.2
5.8
3.6
3.8
0.8
2.9
6.8
6.2
3.8
4.0
-0.1
3.0
2.4
6.7
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.3
3.5
1.4
1.7
2.5
2.9
2.7
5.0
2.4
2.4
1.4
2.7
3.0
5.8
3.0
3.0
3.4
4.4
5.6
0.3
2.0
2.9
1.0
3.1
5.0
2.5
4.0
6.2
6.5
3.2
2.6
6.5
4.2
3.0
6.2
2.9
3.0
5.5
3.0
2.8
14Q4f
15Q1f
15Q2f
15Q3f
15Q4f
16Q1f
16Q2f
16Q3f
1.00
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.00
2.50
1.00
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.00
2.50
1.00
0.50
0.05
0.75
0.00
2.50
1.00
0.75
0.05
0.75
0.00
2.75
1.00
1.25
0.05
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.25
1.50
0.05
1.00
0.00
3.25
1.50
1.75
0.05
1.25
0.00
3.50
2.00
2.25
0.05
1.50
0.00
3.75
1.11
0.90
1.25
1.60
109
0.87
6.1
13.4
2.45
1.12
0.89
1.24
1.60
110
0.86
6.1
13.5
2.50
1.12
0.89
1.23
1.59
111
0.86
6.0
13.4
2.55
1.13
0.88
1.22
1.58
112
0.87
6.0
13.5
2.55
1.13
0.88
1.21
1.58
113
0.88
6.0
13.7
2.60
1.14
0.88
1.20
1.57
114
0.89
6.0
13.5
2.70
1.14
0.88
1.19
1.56
115
0.89
5.9
13.3
2.70
1.15
0.87
1.18
1.55
116
0.90
5.9
13.3
2.80
Commodities (annual average)
2000-13
2014f
2015f
2016f
WTI Oil (US$/bbl)
Brent Oil (US$/bbl)
Nymex Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu)
63
65
5.32
95
102
4.40
85
88
4.00
90
93
4.00
Copper (US$/lb)
Zinc (US$/lb)
Nickel (US$/lb)
Gold, London PM Fix (US$/oz)
2.30
0.79
7.58
792
3.16
1.00
8.00
1,275
3.05
1.25
10.00
1,225
3.00
1.60
12.00
1,300
Pulp (US$/tonne)
Newsprint (US$/tonne)
Lumber (US$/mfbm)
745
587
280
1,025
605
355
1,005
625
385
1,020
630
400
Brazil
Brazil
Chile
Chile
Peru Peru
Central Bank Rates (%, end of period)
Bank of Canada
Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of England
Swiss National Bank
Reserve Bank of Australia
Exchange Rates (end of period)
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Canadian Dollar (CADUSD)
Euro (EURUSD)
Sterling (GBPUSD)
Yen (USDJPY)
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
Chinese Yuan (USDCNY)
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
Brazilian Real (USDBRL)
1
World GDP for 2000-13 are
IMF PPP estimates; 2014-16f
are Scotiabank Economics'
estimates based on a 2013
PPP-weighted sample of 38
countries.
2
CPI for Canada and the
United States are annual
averages. For other countries,
CPI are year-end rates.
* See Scotiabank Economics 'Global Forecast Update' report for additional forecasts & commentary.
A10
8
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Economic Statistics
North America
Canada
Real GDP (annual rates)
Current Acc. Bal. (C$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (C$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Housing Starts (000s)
Employment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Retail Sales
Auto Sales (000s)
CPI
IPPI
Pre-tax Corp. Profits
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
2.0
3.6
-60.3 -47.5
-7.3
5.2
9.0
8.5 (Sep)
0.4
3.4
2.6
2.5 (Sep)
188 197 199 197 (Sep)
1.3
0.6
0.7
1.1 (Oct)
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.5 (Oct)
3.2
5.2
4.4 (Aug)
1744 1815
1931 (Aug)
0.9
2.2
2.1
2.0 (Sep)
0.4
3.4
2.6 -2.5 (Sep)
-0.6 11.9
Mexico
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
1.1
1.6
-26.3 -27.9
-1.2
4.3
-0.7
1.0
3.8
3.6
-6.1
United States
Real GDP (annual rates)
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Housing Starts (millions)
Employment
Unemployment Rate (%)
Retail Sales
Auto Sales (millions)
CPI
PPI
Pre-tax Corp. Profits
2013
2.2
-400
-702
2.9
0.93
1.7
7.4
4.3
15.5
1.5
1.2
4.6
14Q2 14Q3 Latest
4.6
3.5
-394
-757 -731 -752 (Sep)
4.0
4.0
4.2 (Sep)
0.99 1.02 1.02 (Sep)
1.8
1.9
2.0 (Oct)
6.2
6.1
5.8 (Oct)
4.5
4.2
4.0 (Sep)
16.5 16.7 16.3 (Oct)
2.1
1.8
1.7 (Sep)
2.8
2.4
2.1 (Sep)
10.4
7.1 (Sep)
1.4 (Aug)
4.3 (Oct)
4.1
Europe
Euro Zone
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
-0.4
0.7
236 243
268 (Aug)
280.1 331.2
142.2 (Aug)
-0.7
0.9
-0.8 (Aug)
11.9 11.6 11.5 11.5 (Sep)
1.4
0.6
0.4
0.3 (Sep)
Germany
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
0.2 1.3
191.9 280.4
294.1 (Sep)
261.8 287.3 308.0 285.8 (Sep)
0.1 1.1
0.1 -0.2 (Sep)
6.9 6.7
6.7
6.7 (Oct)
1.5 1.1
0.8
0.8 (Oct)
France
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
0.4
0.1
-40.3 -62.7
-64.0 (Aug)
-46.5 -41.4 -46.4 -43.9 (Sep)
-0.6 -2.1 -0.1 -0.3 (Sep)
10.3 10.2 10.5 10.5 (Sep)
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.3 (Sep)
United Kingdom
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
1.7 3.2
3.0
-72.4 -92.4
-172.3 -189.2 -194.0 -192.1 (Sep)
-0.1 2.4
1.9
1.4 (Sep)
7.6 6.3
6.0 (Jul)
2.6 1.7
1.5
1.2 (Sep)
Italy
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
-1.9
16.6
40.3
-3.1
1.2
Russia
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
-0.3
24.6
57.4
-0.1
0.3
0.0
27.7
32.9
-0.2
-0.1
(Aug)
(Aug)
(Aug)
(Sep)
1.3
34.1
15.2
0.4
6.8
0.8
14.1
17.3
1.9
7.6
11.4
1.4
7.7
15.8 (Aug)
2.8 (Sep)
8.3 (Oct)
All data expressed as year-over-year % change unless otherwise noted.
Source: Bloomberg, Global Insight, Scotiabank Economics.
A11
9
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Economic Statistics
Asia Pacific
Australia
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
2.3
3.1
-49.7 -39.1
20.7 17.1
9.5
3.3 (Sep)
3.6
4.6
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.2 (Oct)
2.4
3.0
2.3
Japan
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
1.5 0.0
33.6 14.0
33.5 (Aug)
-117.5 -109.6 -115.4 -119.9 (Sep)
-0.6 2.6 -1.1 -0.8 (Sep)
4.0 3.6
3.6
3.6 (Sep)
0.4 3.6
3.3
3.3 (Sep)
South Korea
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
3.0
79.9
44.1
0.2
1.3
3.5
96.5
59.5
1.2
1.6
(Sep)
(Oct)
(Sep)
(Oct)
China
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
7.7 7.5
182.8
259.2 345.6 512.5 371.6 (Sep)
9.7 9.2
8.0
8.0 (Sep)
2.5 2.3
1.6
1.6 (Sep)
Thailand
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
2.9
-2.5
0.6
-3.0
2.2
0.4
0.5
2.0
-5.2
2.5
1.1 (Sep)
-4.6 (Sep)
1.5 (Oct)
India
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
WPI
4.7 5.7
-49.3 -7.8
-12.7 -11.1 -12.4
0.6 4.4
6.3 5.8
3.8
Indonesia
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
5.8
-29.1
-0.3
6.0
6.4
5.1
-9.1
-0.7
4.3
7.1
Chile
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
4.1 1.9
-4.8 0.1
8.0 11.9
5.5
6.8 (Oct)
3.0 2.1 -1.4
0.2 (Sep)
1.9 4.5
4.7
5.7 (Oct)
Colombia
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
4.7
-12.3
0.2
-1.7
2.0
3.2
90.7
36.2
1.0
1.4
91.5
90.0
0.7
1.2
-1.5
1.6
-3.8
2.0
-14.2 (Sep)
0.4 (Aug)
2.4 (Sep)
5.0
-0.2
4.4
-0.3 (Sep)
1.4 (Jul)
4.8 (Oct)
Latin America
Brazil
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Industrial Production
CPI
Peru
Real GDP
Current Acc. Bal. (US$B, ar)
Merch. Trade Bal. (US$B, ar)
Unemployment Rate (%)
CPI
2013 14Q2 14Q3 Latest
2.3 -0.7
-81.1 -72.7 -77.7
2.6 14.3
7.2 -14.1 (Oct)
2.2 -4.2 -3.8 -4.7 (Sep)
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.6 (Oct)
6.0
-9.1
0.1
5.9
2.8
1.7
-3.5
-0.4
5.9
3.5
-0.2
5.7
2.9
-0.3 (Sep)
5.6 (Sep)
3.1 (Oct)
4.3
-4.2
-0.2
-0.3
2.8
2.9
0.2 (Aug)
0.3 (Aug)
3.3 (Oct)
All data expressed as year-over-year % change unless otherwise noted.
Source: Bloomberg, Global Insight, Scotiabank Economics.
A12
10
November 7, 2014
Economics
Global Views
Financial Statistics
Interest Rates (%, end of period)
Canada
BoC Overnight Rate
3-mo. T-bill
10-yr Gov’t Bond
30-yr Gov’t Bond
Prime
FX Reserves (US$B)
14Q2
1.00
0.95
2.24
2.78
3.00
75.7
14Q3
1.00
0.92
2.15
2.67
3.00
Oct/31
1.00
0.89
2.05
2.59
3.00
75.5
Nov/07*
1.00
0.90
2.04
2.60
3.00
(Aug)
Germany
3-mo. Interbank
10-yr Gov’t Bond
FX Reserves (US$B)
0.15
1.25
66.1
0.04
0.95
65.1
0.07
0.84
65.1
0.03
0.82
(Sep)
Euro Zone
Refinancing Rate
Overnight Rate
FX Reserves (US$B)
0.15
0.34
340.2
0.05
0.20
329.4
0.05
0.08
329.4
0.05
-0.04
(Sep)
Japan
Discount Rate
3-mo. Libor
10-yr Gov’t Bond
FX Reserves (US$B)
0.30
0.07
0.57
1251.5
0.30
0.05
0.53
1234.4
0.30
0.05
0.46
1234.4
0.30
0.05
0.48
(Sep)
1.07
0.94
1.711
1.369
0.72
0.89
1.12
0.89
1.621
1.263
0.72
0.96
1.13
0.89
1.600
1.253
0.71
0.96
1.14
0.88
1.584
1.242
0.70
0.97
16827
1960
15146
42737
53168
1155
17043
1972
14961
44986
54116
1119
17391
2018
14613
45028
54629
1059
17558
2032
14688
44787
53201
1048
1030
605
346
105.37
4.46
1030
605
340
91.16
4.12
1030
605
340
80.54
3.87
1030
605
United States
Fed Funds Target Rate
3-mo. T-bill
10-yr Gov’t Bond
30-yr Gov’t Bond
Prime
FX Reserves (US$B)
14Q2
0.25
0.02
2.53
3.36
3.25
134.1
14Q3
0.25
0.02
2.49
3.20
3.25
126.0
Oct/31
0.25
0.01
2.34
3.07
3.25
126.0
Nov/07*
0.25
0.02
2.32
3.06
3.25
(Sep)
France
3-mo. T-bill
10-yr Gov’t Bond
FX Reserves (US$B)
0.02
1.70
55.2
-0.03
1.29
50.6
-0.03
1.18
50.6
-0.02
1.18
(Sep)
United Kingdom
Repo Rate
3-mo. T-bill
10-yr Gov’t Bond
FX Reserves (US$B)
0.50
0.44
2.67
99.4
0.50
0.51
2.43
94.4
0.50
0.46
2.25
94.4
0.50
0.46
2.21
(Sep)
Australia
Cash Rate
10-yr Gov’t Bond
FX Reserves (US$B)
2.50
3.54
55.9
2.50
3.48
50.1
2.50
3.29
50.1
2.50
3.35
(Sep)
¥/US$
US¢/Australian$
Chinese Yuan/US$
South Korean Won/US$
Mexican Peso/US$
Brazilian Real/US$
101.33
0.94
6.20
1012
12.968
2.214
109.65
0.87
6.14
1055
13.429
2.447
112.32
0.88
6.11
1069
13.481
2.478
114.94
0.86
6.12
1093
13.567
2.563
U.K. (FT100)
Germany (Dax)
France (CAC40)
Japan (Nikkei)
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
South Korea (Composite)
6744
9833
4423
15162
23191
2002
6623
9474
4416
16174
22933
2020
6546
9327
4233
16414
23998
1964
6572
9294
4190
16880
23550
1940
3.15
3.06
1.00
1.04
1315.00 1216.50
20.87
17.11
308.22 278.55
3.10
1.06
1164.25
16.20
271.96
3.05
1.01
1154.50
15.42
270.73
Exchange Rates (end of period)
USDCAD
CADUSD
GBPUSD
EURUSD
JPYEUR
USDCHF
Equity Markets (index, end of period)
United States (DJIA)
United States (S&P500)
Canada (S&P/TSX)
Mexico (IPC)
Brazil (Bovespa)
Italy (BCI)
Commodity Prices (end of period)
Pulp (US$/tonne)
Newsprint (US$/tonne)
Lumber (US$/mfbm)
WTI Oil (US$/bbl)
Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu)
337
78.90
4.41
Copper (US$/lb)
Zinc (US$/lb)
Gold (US$/oz)
Silver (US$/oz)
CRB (index)
* Latest observation taken at time of writing.
Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics.
A13
11
A12
Disclaimer
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Fixed Income Strategy (London)
www.gbm.scotiabank.com
© 2012, The Bank of Nova Scotia
This material, its content, or any copy of it, may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any
other party without the prior express written consent of ScotiabankTM. This material has not been prepared by a member of
the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this material does not
constitute investment advice or any personal recommendation to invest in a financial instrument or “investment research” as
defined by the Financial Services Authority. This material is provided for information and discussion purposes only. An investment
decision should not be made solely on the basis of the contents of this publication. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an
offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular
needs of any recipient. It is not intended to provide legal, tax, accounting or other advice and recipients should obtain specific
professional advice from their own legal, tax, accounting or other appropriate professional advisers before embarking on any
course of action. The information in this material is based on publicly available information and although it has been compiled or
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee,
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Information included in
this material related to comparison performance (whether past or future) or simulated performance (whether past or future) is not a
reliable indicator of future returns.
This presentation is not directed to or intended for use by any person resident or located in any country where the distribution of
such information is contrary to the laws of such country. Scotiabank its directors, officers, employees or clients may currently or
from time to time own or hold interests in long or short positions in any securities referred to herein, and may at any time make
purchases or sales of these securities as principal or agent. Scotiabank may also have provided or may provide investment
banking, capital markets or other services to the companies referred to in this communication.
TM
Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with "Global Banking and
Markets", is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of
Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including Scotia Capital Inc., Scotia Capital (USA) Inc.,
Scotiabanc Inc.; Citadel Hill Advisors L.L.C.; The Bank of Nova Scotia Trust Company of New York; Scotiabank Europe plc; Scotia
Capital (Europe) Limited; Scotiabank (Ireland) Limited; Scotiabank Inverlat S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Scotia Inverlat Casa
de Bolsa S.A. de C.V., Scotia Inverlat Derivados S.A. de C.V. – all members of the Scotiabank Group and authorized users of the
mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability. Scotia Capital Inc. is a member of CIPF. Scotia
Capital (USA) Inc. is a registered broker-dealer with the SEC and is a member of the NASD and SIPC. The Bank of Nova Scotia,
Scotiabank Europe plc, Scotia Capital (Europe) Limited and Scotia Capital Inc. are each authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority (FSA) in the U.K. Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., and Scotia Derivados,
S.A. de C.V., are each authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.
Fixed Income Strategy (Paris)
Disclaimer © 2011, The Bank of Nova Scotia This material, its content, or any copy of it, may not be altered in any way,
transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank™. This material has
not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional
investors, and this material does not constitute investment advice or any personal recommendation to invest in a financial
instrument or “investment research” as defined by the Financial Services Authority. This material is provided for information and
discussion purposes only. An investment decision should not be made solely on the basis of the contents of this publication. It is
not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and has no regard to the specific investment
objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is not intended to provide legal, tax, accounting or other advice
and recipients should obtain specific professional advice from their own legal, tax, accounting or other appropriate professional
advisers before embarking on any course of action. The information in this material is based on publicly available information and
although it has been compiled or obtained from sources believed to be reliable, such information has not been independently
verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. Information included in this material related to comparison performance (whether past or future) or simulated
performance (whether past or future) is not a reliable indicator of future returns. This presentation is not directed to or intended for
use by any person resident or located in any country where the distribution of such information is contrary to the laws of such
country. Scotiabank its directors, officers, employees or clients may currently or from time to time own or hold interests in long or
short positions in any securities referred to herein, and may at any time make purchases or sales of these securities as principal or
agent. Scotiabank may also have provided or may provide investment banking, capital markets or other services to the companies
referred to in this communication.
Disclaimer
November 7, 2014
Global Views
Foreign Exchange Strategy
This publication has been prepared by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) for informational and marketing purposes only.
Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice.
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the
forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Scotiabank, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility.
Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This
publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to
herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy
involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein
is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning
of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be
individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter into
a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement
any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to
bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors.
Scotiabank, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time take positions in the
currencies mentioned herein as principal or agent, and may have received remuneration as financial advisor and/or underwriter for
certain of the corporations mentioned herein. Directors, officers or employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as
directors of corporations referred to herein. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable
agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by
copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the
information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Scotiabank.
™Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with “Global Banking and
Markets”, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of
Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, all members of the Scotiabank group and authorized
users of the mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability and is authorised and regulated by the
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia and Scotiabank Europe plc are authorised
by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. The Bank of Nova Scotia is subject to regulation by the UK Financial Conduct Authority
and limited regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorised by the UK Prudential
Regulation Authority and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the UK Prudential Regulation Authority. Details
about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the UK Prudential Regulation Authority are available on request.
Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., and Scotia Inverlat Derivados, S.A. de C.V., are each
authorized and regulated by the Mexican financial authorities.Not all products and services are offered in all jurisdictions. Services
described are available in jurisdictions where permitted by law.
November 7, 2014
Disclaimer
Global Views
Scotiabank Economics
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and
projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and
opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
TM
Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.
Scotiabank Economics
Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor
Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
Tel: (416) 866-6253 Fax: (416) 866-2829
Email: [email protected]
For general and publication-related inquiries, contact
us by telephone, email and/or fax.