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Texas Economic Indicators
DALLASFED
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • NOVEMBER 2014
Summary
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 3.2 percent annual rate in September. Texas existing-home sales and single-family permits increased in September, while housing starts
declined. Texas exports edged up in August. Manufacturing activity in October rose at a slightly slower rate than in September, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Employment Growth
Texas employment rose at a 3.2 percent
�
annualized pace in September, faster than
the nation’s 2.2 percent increase. Texas
gained 30,800 jobs in September after adding 38,400 jobs in August. Current Texas
employment stands at 11.6 million, according to the payroll survey (CES).
Month-over-month percent change, annualized
8
6
4
2
0
The Texas unemployment rate fell to 5.2
�
percent in September. The Texas rate continues to be lower than the U.S. rate, which
fell to 5.9 percent in September.
-2
-4
Texas
-6
-8
2010
2011
U.S.
2012
2013
2014
Texas Housing Starts
Texas housing starts, which include single�
family and multifamily starts, declined 2.8
percent in September following a 2.9 percent drop in August. However, starts are up
24.9 percent from last year’s levels.
Thousand units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
210
190
170
150
Single-family housing construction
�
permits rose 1.6 percent in September after
falling 3.7 percent in August and are up 13.7
percent year over year. Texas existing-home
sales increased 1.9 percent in September
and are up 3.4 percent year over year.
130
110
90
70
50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Monthly Texas Exports
Monthly Texas exports rose 0.4 percent
�
from July to August after rising 4.7 percent
from June to July. August exports were 10.4
percent higher than year-earlier levels.
Real 2000 dollars (millions)
20,000!
19,000!
18,000!
17,000!
16,000!
15,000!
14,000!
13,000!
12,000!
11,000!
10,000!
2010!
2011!
Home inventories remained at 3.6 months
�
of available supply in September and were
below their year-ago level of 3.8 months.
2012!
2013!
2014!
Crude Oil Prices
Natural Gas Prices
Texas Rig Count
$/barrel
$/million Btu
Active rigs
$140
$7
1,000
$120
$6
$100
$5
$80
$4
$60
$3
$40
$2
$20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
800
600
400
$1
The West Texas Intermediate crude
�
oil price fell sharply from $93.21 in September to $84.37 per barrel in October
and was down 16.1 percent year over
year.
2010
2011
2012
2013
�Natural gas prices edged down to
$3.78 per million Btu in October, a 3.6
percent decrease from the September
level. The price was 3.3 percent higher
than in October 2013.
Texas Leading Index with Components
0.99
Net change in Texas Leading Index
Texas Value of the Dollar
-0.02
U.S. leading index
0.61
2011
2012
2013
2014
The Texas rig count fell to 899 in Octo�
ber from 902 in September but was up
9.6 percent year over year.
The Texas Leading Index, which uses key
�
economic indicators to forecast employment growth, rose 1 percent from June to
August, with less than half of its components
rising during the period.
Well permits
0.35
New unemployment claims
0.51
Texas Stock Index
-0.08
-0.17
Help-wanted Index
-0.08
Average weekly hours
0.0
0.4
0.8
Three-month percentage change, seasonally adjusted
1.2
Production Index –Texas Manufacturing
�Texas factory activity increased again in
October, according to business executives
responding to the Texas Manufacturing
Outlook Survey. The production index, a key
measure of state manufacturing conditions,
fell from 17.6 to 13.7 in October, indicating
output grew but at a slightly slower pace
than in September.
Index
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2010
Real oil price
-0.12
-0.4
200
2014
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
The Dallas Fed conducts the monthly
�
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory
activity.
NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to data revisions.
SOURCES: Employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES); Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas;
Housing: Multiple Listing Service; U.S. Census Bureau; Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. All housing data are seasonally adjusted; Exports: U.S. Census Bureau; World Institute for Strategic
Economic Research; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Energy: Wall Street Journal; Baker Hughes; Texas Leading Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Data are seasonally adjusted; Texas Manufacturing Production Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Questions can be addressed to Amy Jordan at [email protected]. Texas Economic Indicators is released on the first Wednesday of every month and can be found online at
www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/index.cfm.
More Dallas Fed economic updates