MAC Newsletter
INSIDE THIS ISSUE:
Market Recap
1
MAC Facility Pricing
1-2
Ag Megatrends Part I
3
Effects of Corn Drydown
4
Facility News
5
Calendar of Important
6
Dates
Weather Forecast
6
Market Recap
7 NOVEMBER 2014
The commodity markets slid lower this week as the US corn and soybean harvest continues at a moderate pace. The soybean market continues to hold a flame under prices
keeping them from slipping lower, too fast. Unprecedented demand for US soy products
has been a result of the inability of hog producers to source synthetic amino acid methionine which requires 8% to 35% more soymeal in the diet to offset. Export sales for the
week continue to be behind the necessary pace for wheat and corn to meet the USDA projections. For the week, December corn closed down 9 cents at $3.67, January soybeans
ended down 13 cents at $10.37, and December wheat finished 28 cents in the red at
$5.14.
As mentioned, soymeal demand has been critical to the $1.20 soybean recovery since the
first of October. However, South American soymeal values are proving their competitiveness now offered $55 a ton lower than US, which should keep a top on soymeal prices for
the near term. While there is not confirmation of any soymeal bought to come into the
US, the threat of its competitiveness should be a signal to the market. Soybean price direction will soon be a factor of the USDA supply and demand estimate numbers to be released Monday morning at noon. Historically, while its too soon to provide a most accurate estimate of the US corn production, soybeans are within .3 of the final yield for the
year. The US will be able to gauge supply moving forward once the report is released.
Weekly exports for corn showed a total of 18.8 mb, which was below the 23 mb needed
to stay on pace with the USDA’s projected demand. Wheat exports sales were 9.8 mb,
about 2 mb below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s
crop year total of 925 mb. Soybeans are a bright spot
and finding support this morning after the report with
significant sales of 59.3 mb versus the 10.2mb needed
this week to stay on pace with USDA
demand projections.
Daily Corn Closes
Michigan harvest continues to be hindered by weather patterns, the state’s
soybean average is approaching 85%
complete with corn barely rolling. If
the state is 33% harvested in Monday’s
report that will be surprising. We remind everyone to stay safe.
Rachel Haskin
[email protected]
517-627-0200
PAGE
Daily Soybean Closes
2
Daily Wheat Closes
Current Facility Prices
Corn
Current
Soybeans
O/N '15
Current
Red Wheat White Wheat
O/N '15
Current
Current
Cash Basis Cash Basis Cash Basis Cash Basis Cash Basis Cash
Basis
Breckenridge
3.13
-.55
3.48
-.65
9.72
-.65
9.44
-.75
4.75
-.40
5.45
.30
Blissfield
3.33
-.35
3.63
-50
10.10
-.27
9.74
-.45
5.05
-.10
N/A
N/A
Brown City
3.13
-.55
3.48
-.65
9.72
-.65
9.44
-.75
4.80
-.35
N/A
N/A
Jasper
3.28
-.40
3.58
-.55
10.10
-.37
9.64
-.55
5.05
-.10
N/A
N/A
Marlette
3.13
-.55
3.48
-.65
9.72
-.65
9.44
-.75
4.80
-.35
5.15
0
Middleton
3.13
-.55
3.48
-.65
9.72
-.65
9.44
-.75
4.75
-.40
5.45
.30
Newaygo
3.13
-.55
3.48
-.65
9.77
-.60
9.49
-.70
4.80
-.35
5.50
.35
Megatrends in Agriculture 1:
Shifting Farm Structure
This is the first of a ten article series that will appear in our weekly newsletter. This series of articles
will go over hot topics in agriculture and the new megatrends that we are all seeing across the
industry. The first megatrend of our series involves the shifting farm structure in the U.S.
The average age of a U.S. farmer is 58.3 years old compare that to almost 30 years ago when it was
50.5 years old.; an increase of 7.8 years. What’s causing the rise in age?
It comes down to costs, profitability, and competition. For starters, land and equipment costs are two
barriers that new farmers are struggling to overcome. A small 50 acre farm will probably cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $250,000, based on land values at $5,000 per acre.
Another problem is the cost of equipment. No, a new farmer does not need to roll into a dealers lot in
a half a million dollar combine, but is a $40,000$50,000 combine out of hand? Keep in mind all
the other pieces of machinery needed to harvest
and plant. There is potential a beginning farmer
invests up to $250,000 in used equipment—
assuming the farmer is looking to grow in the
coming years.
Young farmers have been attempting to get into
production, but each year fewer survive, mainly
for the previously stated issues. Young farmer
numbers have been dropping quite quickly over
the past few years, as seen in the graph above
It’s an increasing problem— not enough youth in
agriculture. The USDA has taken notice of recent
census data and employees are looking into the
issue extensively. The graph to the left shows the
amount of farmers that have been on a farm for a
certain time frame, comparing the 2007 census to
the 2012 census.
With less farmers entering the industry, older
farmers, with more knowledge and management
skills, are now increasing their acreage. This ultimately makes an already competitive market even
tougher on a new producer. Traditionally young farmers get started because it is the family business,
which is never a bad thing. In fact, passing down a family business, like farming, creates more value
in tradition, pride, and a love for the land.
Unfortunately, this common tradition makes less land available for newcomers that don’t have a
relation in farming. However, through organizations such as FFA and 4-H, children from non-farming
families can get a grasp of what agriculture is and work in non-farm aspects of agriculture if desired.
MAC
NEWSLETTER
PAGE
3
Contact: Dave Geers
[email protected]
Corn drydown: What to expect?
The following information is provided by a recent study from Ohio State University Extension.
“Corn growers may encounter slower than normal dry down this fall due to relatively cool weather conditions
and late crop development. Corn will normally dry approximately 3/4 to 1% per day during favorable drying
weather (sunny and breezy) during the early warmer part of the harvest season from mid-September through
late September. By early mid-October, dry-down rates will usually drop 1/2 to 3/4% per day. By late October to
early November, field dry-down rates will usually drop to 1/4 to 1/2% per day and by mid November, probably 0
to 1/4% per day. By late November , dry rates will be negligible.
Agronomists generally recommend that harvesting corn for dry grain
storage should begin at about 24 to 25% grain moisture. Allowing
corn to field dry below 20% risks yield losses from stalk lodging, ear
drop, ear rots, insect feeding damage and wildlife damage.
The following lists the key findings of the study:
- Results showed that nearly 90% of the yield loss associated with delayed corn harvest occurred when
delays extended beyond mid-November.
- Grain moisture decreased nearly 6% between harvest dates in Oct. and Nov. delaying harvest after early
to mind Nov. achieved almost no additional grain drying.
- The greatest increase in stalk rot incidence came between harvest dates in October and November. In
contrast, stalk lodging increased most after early-mid November.
Agronomists at the University of
Wisconsin have developed a “Field
Loss Calculator” Excel spreadsheet
available:
(http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/
Season/DSS.aspx) that allows
producers to calculate the costs of
harvesting today versus allowing
the crop to stand in the field and
harvesting later. The spreadsheet
accounts for higher drying costs
versus grain losses during field
drying. It allows the user to account
for elevator discounts and grain
shrink.”
PAGE
4
PAGE
Blissfield/Jasper
5
Facility News
800-344-7246
Harvest is rolling along about every other
day. The weather has been less than cooperative
this fall! It seems like we just start to get busy and
then we get hit with rainy gloomy weather
again. Some local producers finished up soybean
harvest this week, while others are still trying to
cut when the weather permits. We are definitely
seeing the shift to more inbound corn trucks
though. We’ll be running harvest hours this
weekend at Blissfield, please call 517-436-3126
for Jasper hours. Have a great weekend!
Breckenridge
800-472-4629
With dry bean harvest all but done, folks have
turned their attention to soybean and corn
harvests. We have got in a good quantity of
soybeans and were advancing nicely until the
weather threw us another curve ball that has
delayed progress. Many growers are finishing up
their sugar beets and heading into corn, so we
should see increased corn deliveries in the
coming days if the weather permits. Remember
that the USDA’s November Crop Report is due out
on November 10th . Until next week, enjoy all
Michigan has to offer & stay safe this harvest
season!
Cadillac
517-282-6720
Snipping and clipping between rain, wind and
snow was this weeks harvest. Corn remains stubbornly wet, but needs to be harvested
before heavy snow precludes combining. For
those whom deer hunt in the North. We will most
likely have "tracking" snow. So here's a recipe
for Venison Track Stew. Gather as many tracks as
you can. Add to "what's you got" in a large pot.
Add a bucket of swamp water and boil for 10
minutes. Then add whiskey to taste. Serve with
stale bread and cold beer. Not great but filling. On
a more serious note If you love your freedom
THANK a veteran. Because freedom has been
paid forward for you. Cerebrate next Tuesday.
Marlette/Brown City
800-647-4628
We are thankful here in the Thumb for beautiful
weather so farmers can get another chunk of
crops off before the (dreaded) snow comes. We
are busy with soybeans and hoping to be able to
ship wet corn next week. Call for harvest hours
and let us know if we can help you out with any
marketing needs. Have a great weekend! Go
Green!
Middleton
800-344-7263
Middleton area it still getting wet weather. The
soybean harvest is on the downward swing,
and corn harvest is showing up with some
moisture levels around 25. The crews are
unloading incoming grain, loading out
fertilizer, feed, warm weather gear, and seed
wheat (most of the wheat is planted), soil
testing and spraying fall burn down. Our twin
scale system is working very good this week
with an average in/out time of just over 11
minutes, we are extremely pleased with the
upgrade. Here is hoping everyone has a safe
and happy first weekend without all those
political ads.
Newaygo
800-878-5800
Another hit and miss week of receipts this
week. Soybean growers are taking them off any
chance the weather gives them. We are roughly
70% done with them from our draw area. Corn is
just getting going. A few of the local guys have
started with moisture coming in between 20 and
25. A few of our northern guys are picking quite
a few acres and they are 2-5 points wetter on
their corn. We are receiving until 7 pm on Friday,
call for Saturday and Sunday hours. Have a great
weekend and stay safe through harvest.
PAGE
6
November 2014
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
1
2
3
4
5
Crop Progress
9
10
11
12
19
Crop Progress
23
30
13
14
15
20
21
22
28
29
Weekly Export
25
24
8
Weekly Export
18
17
7
Weekly Export
Crop Progress
16
6
26
Crop Progress
27
Happy
Thanksgiving
Mark Sterling MAC Weather Report
Medicine Safety
Every year thousands of children are hospitalized after
taking medicine not meant for them. Teens share stolen
prescription drugs at "pharm parties" and toddlers are
tempted by colorful pills that look like candy. In the U.S.
about 165 kids are taken to the ER every day after
getting into medications. Every year about 56 children
die. How can we reduce the threat? Consider this: among
young children, 95% of unintentional medication
overdose visits to emergency rooms are cause by a child
ingesting medication while unsupervised and about 5%
are cause by dosing errors made by caregivers.
So ultimately, safe storage and safe dosing means safe
kids. Here are some tips.
Store medications in a safe location out of sight and
reach of young children.
Never refer to medication as candy.
Close child resistant caps and on medication bottles
every time.
If you have guests over ask that if they have medications
that they put them up and out of sight when they are in
your home.
Thanks and Be Safe!
Josh Spegel
Today will be a big corn harvest day with dry
conditions but lots of clouds, however more showers
will move into the area late tonight into Saturday and
could be mixed with some snow at times. A break in the
precipitation is likely for Saturday night into early
Sunday before another low and cold front move in and
bring a chance for more rain and snow showers for
Sunday afternoon and evening. As that front sinks into
the northern Ohio Valley a low will have already
formed in the Rockies and will slide along that front
heading for the upper Ohio Valley. On its heals will be
a powerful Arctic cold front and it's that push of cold
air that should keep the low moving in a patch that
would spread moderate to heavy snow to the north of
the track and effect at least parts of not much of the
MAC and LAC areas. This type of low "Rockies Low"
often is more predictable and often carries a 3-6 / 4-8
inch snow but can wildly vary depending on moisture
feed and dynamics. Both the latest GFS and WCMWF
are in pretty good agreement and have been for the last
3 runs. Now this far out the track and strength is still
very much in question as to where the heaviest snow
will fall but anyone in the great lakes will want to
monitor later updates as this does have the potential to
be a significant winter storm. Snow or no snow a frigid
air mass for this time of the year will set in and even
after the heart of the cold air passes we see more winter
fun and games coming down the road.
© 2008 The information reflected herein is derived from sources to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or
completeness. This material & any views expressed herein are for informational purposes only & should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. Trading futures involves risk of loss.